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student.

0:49

It's Wednesday, September the twenty first, and you're

0:51

very welcome to the Inside Politics podcast

0:53

from the urge. times. I'm Yunnan. With

0:56

Vladimir Putin announcing partial

0:58

mobilization of Russian forces in

1:00

response to military setbacks in Ukraine.

1:02

And the EU preparing for an unprecedented

1:05

energy challenge as a result of that conflict

1:07

this winter, one might be forgiven

1:09

for not paying attention to a number of significant

1:12

political events, which may yet reshape

1:14

some of the politics at the level

1:16

in number of European countries. The

1:18

recent election in Sweden positions

1:20

the Sweden Democrats, a party with

1:23

roots in the extreme right and neo Naziism,

1:25

as the largest single group in a right wing

1:27

block, which holds a slender majority in

1:30

the new parliament. Meanwhile, in

1:32

Italy where a general election takes place

1:34

this Sunday, The brothers of Italy,

1:36

another party with Fascist past,

1:38

seems likely to lead a new coalition government

1:41

with its leader, Georgia Maloney, as

1:43

prime minister. And in Hungary,

1:45

the self professed liberal democracy of

1:48

Viktor Orban seems set to

1:50

finally suffer long promised punitive

1:52

measures in the form of cuts in EU

1:54

structural funding due to its failure

1:56

to comply with EU standards for rule

1:58

of law and anti corruption

2:01

regulations. So what is actually happening

2:03

in these countries? And what are the implications

2:05

for the EU block as a whole at this moment

2:08

of Prices. To discuss this, I'm joined

2:10

from Brussels by our Europe correspondent,

2:12

Naomi O'Leary. Hi, Naomi. Hi,

2:14

Hugh. Great to be with you. Let's

2:16

go to Italy first. It's a country you know well.

2:18

You've worked there as a journalist in the past.

2:21

As I say, this election is happening on Sunday.

2:23

Why is there an election? It's it

2:25

was called by two months ago. Why why is

2:27

it happening? Italy

2:28

needed to have an election at some point, but the

2:30

main reason is that the coalition

2:32

that had up prime minister,

2:34

Mario Draghi, as prime minister, technocrat,

2:37

prime minister, a non politician, that

2:39

collapsed, which precipitated this election.

2:41

And that was a sort of a a big tent

2:44

coalition that included some of the the

2:46

populist parties, whichever isn't there

2:48

over the last few years, as well

2:50

as center left and centerless parties.

2:51

The only opposition party actually

2:54

was brothers of Italy who are

2:56

now poised to be the most

2:58

popular party in the elections according

3:00

to polls. So this is

3:02

a party that would have been

3:04

pretty small. It it sort of

3:07

it coalesces together the more hard right

3:09

elements unusually forms part of

3:11

the broader right wing coalition while

3:13

being being a distinction party. And

3:16

they have managed to Georgia Maloney

3:18

has managed to increase her profile, grow

3:21

in the polls, and eclipse the other

3:23

sort of hard right figure in

3:25

politics. Matteo Salvini, by

3:27

taking that opposition by distinguishing herself

3:30

as being on the opposition ventures. So

3:32

she's really managed to hoover up a lot

3:34

of the populist vote because because of the

3:36

problems I suppose the populist parties often face

3:38

when they enter into government and then

3:40

end up inevitably disappointing

3:42

the people who elected

3:43

what what we've seen in a series of Italian

3:45

elections in twenty thirteen, twenty

3:47

eighteen

3:48

is that Italians repeatedly vote

3:50

for change. So there's a swing

3:53

to whoever the newcomer is. In

3:55

twenty thirteen, that was a dramatic explosion

3:58

onto the scene of the

3:59

five star movement. which

4:02

has since sort of splintered and disintegrated

4:04

and faded away.

4:06

And, you know, it's still there hanging on,

4:08

but it's a shadow of what it was. And

4:11

then in twenty eighteen, there was another

4:13

swing this time in the favor of

4:15

the league, formerly the Northern

4:17

League, used to be a a

4:20

regionalist party that wanted the north

4:22

of Italy to split off and be its own country,

4:24

but then it rebranded as a national

4:26

hard right party and was

4:28

quite successful that time. So

4:30

this time, it's Georgia Maloney, who's the new

4:32

thing. She's forty five,

4:34

she's from Rome, and she

4:37

is not a newcomer to parliamentary

4:39

politics. She was one of the

4:41

youngest ministers in Italy's

4:43

history. She was also a really young

4:46

elected member of the chamber of deputies when she

4:48

was first elected in two thousand and six.

4:51

But it's her roots

4:53

in the sort of far right activism

4:55

of the Roman suburbs

4:57

that cause her

4:59

to people to be very nervous about

5:01

her. the the rivals, the

5:03

opposition parties, they

5:06

they insist that, you know, this these

5:08

people can't be trusted with democracy.

5:10

their tradition was opposed to

5:12

parliamentary democracy. It

5:15

also used to have ideologies

5:17

like racial supremacy as part of it.

5:19

She's moved away from those more toxic

5:21

elements and rebranded as

5:23

pro European, pro NATO,

5:26

more mainstream, but holding on to this

5:28

conservative Christian right ideology

5:31

about traditional family units,

5:34

support for families, anti

5:36

immigration, no one

5:38

order these kind of

5:39

things. Yeah, I've noticed that a number of

5:41

conservative commentators are indeed supporters of that

5:43

priority initially saying that it's essentially

5:45

in the same position on the

5:47

ideological spectrum now is the conservative party

5:49

in the United Kingdom or the Republican Party in

5:51

the United States. Although mind you, you look at parts of the

5:53

Republican Party in the United States in that's

5:55

not necessarily that reassuring.

5:57

Well, there's something to that I mean,

5:59

what we

5:59

have here is a movement that has

6:02

grown out of the transition from fascism

6:04

in Italy. So it does have in

6:06

its history that transition from

6:09

fascism.

6:09

the

6:10

And it it's it's certainly the case that,

6:13

although I said, Maloney

6:15

has disobeyed those more toxic

6:17

elements of that tradition, like

6:19

racism, which is

6:21

now a political taboo at

6:24

leadership level anyway. Even

6:26

though that's the case, it's no doubt that their

6:28

supporters among their the porters and

6:30

perhaps even candidates, some of

6:32

the that ideology, no doubt, remains.

6:36

And then But

6:38

what what she's managed to do though is

6:40

she's managed to get the

6:42

vote share that she's currently

6:44

on court course to get something around twenty

6:46

five percent she's managed to do that

6:48

by normalizing the party of it. So by

6:51

distancing herself from

6:53

the more from that more sort

6:55

of problematic baggage, and

6:57

rebranding herself as something more mainstream.

6:59

So she has she she's

7:01

very aware and careful about

7:03

which audience she's addressing. She's

7:05

she's very sensitive to the

7:07

international interest in this and

7:09

how Italy has perceived internationally. So

7:11

she's also sought to reassure European

7:13

partners and she is, at this

7:15

point, you know, she's she's

7:17

a sort of a hardened politician. She's been in there

7:19

in the Parliament for quite a long

7:21

time, as I said, she's previously served in cabinet.

7:24

She was a minister for under inappropriate

7:26

government of Sylvia Bonusconi. So

7:28

she is very used to this coalition

7:31

making. And it's

7:35

an interesting balance to see how she's

7:37

managing to straddle

7:39

notes that still appeal to

7:41

that very hard line base. like,

7:44

she wants to push for a presidential system

7:46

in Italy, which would have, like,

7:48

a a directly elected president. And

7:51

Lot of people have ideas about how to reform

7:53

art, Italy's electoral system, to make it a

7:55

bit more reliable so that

7:57

they don't have continual government crises,

7:59

which happen all the time.

8:00

But the idea of having a great

8:03

leader when it's proposed from a party like this was

8:05

a fascist background. it's

8:07

understandable if it causes nervousness, particularly

8:10

among the left wing circles initially.

8:12

Yes. Yeah. Indeed, it is. I mean, I I suppose

8:14

it's the case. Isn't it that I know

8:16

something that struck me when I started visiting

8:18

Italy for the first time was that the

8:20

country clearly hadn't gone through anything

8:22

like the sort of denotification program

8:25

which happened in in Germany

8:27

after the war, you could see, you

8:29

know, memorabilia with the face of Musovini

8:31

on them in in shops, on

8:33

bottles of wine, and all kinds of things. And

8:35

there was always, there was immediately

8:37

after the war, there was a there was a successor

8:39

party, which morphed into another

8:41

party is now ultimately morphed

8:43

into into this party.

8:46

So there's always been a degree

8:48

of, if not legitimacy,

8:50

It has not been as outside the pale in

8:52

Italian politics, this particular political

8:54

strand, as it might have been in some other

8:56

countries.

8:56

It might help if I sketch out a

8:59

little bit about what political activism

9:01

is like in Italy. So those,

9:03

you know, faces of mausoleum bottles of

9:05

wine stuff, that's kind of tourist hat. You might

9:07

find that in in

9:08

Russia with faces of Stalin or in

9:10

other countries that used to be part of the Soviet

9:12

Union is slightly

9:14

bad taste tourist memorabilia.

9:17

that kind of thing did cause controversy

9:19

initially too as well. But, yeah, there are

9:21

live fascists who still call

9:23

themselves fascists and fondly remember

9:25

Benito Muslini and honor him

9:27

with ceremonies. So that is a

9:29

lived political tradition, albeit a

9:31

fringe one and a very controversial one

9:33

in Italy. So for example, when I

9:35

was living in Northern Rome,

9:38

something that I did a lot of reporting on

9:40

was these sort of extreme

9:42

and very active strands

9:44

of political activism

9:46

among teenagers and whether

9:48

hard left or hard right

9:50

and there would be very distinct

9:52

groups of those who

9:54

would who would be part of high school and

9:56

it was a normal play that was a normal part

9:58

of school for those groups to be out each

10:00

other's throats. and sometimes

10:02

clash violently and have roles.

10:04

For example, one high

10:07

school in my neighborhood introduced

10:09

a book onto the curriculum which had a

10:11

gay character. And then in response to that,

10:13

the local teenagers who

10:15

were in the far right did

10:17

a kind of raid on the school where they threw

10:20

bangers and smoke bombs. It

10:22

was very intimidating, especially for the gay

10:24

students who are actually just going to class. you

10:26

know, with their with their backpacks and stuff.

10:28

And this kind of thing goes on. And then

10:30

on the left wing side, you have occupations.

10:32

They take over abandoned buildings and

10:34

use them to have art events and

10:36

raves and sometimes use it for

10:38

for, like, refugee outreach and care

10:40

organizations. But there's a real

10:43

participation in quite

10:45

extreme politics among

10:47

teenagers. And that's where Georgia

10:49

Maloney comes from. So she she

10:51

joined the the

10:53

Italian social movement when she was

10:55

fifteen. This was a hard right, what

10:57

they call a post fascist movement,

10:59

something trying to reconcile the history

11:01

of baptism and move into something

11:03

that's more like mainstream

11:05

conservatism, but also without

11:07

necessarily completely disavowing the fascist

11:09

roots. She became a, yeah, a

11:11

teenage activist. She was known as a firebrand

11:13

at that point, very brave you

11:15

know, a kind of a rare woman in these

11:17

movements and being fearless that I

11:19

had spoken. And then

11:21

quickly from that,

11:23

she was noticed as a talent. and

11:25

she was put on the electoral

11:27

lists of the national alliance, another one

11:29

of these post fascist hereditary

11:33

inheritors of this tradition. and ended

11:35

up in parliament and she's, you know,

11:37

continued her ascent since then.

11:39

the

11:40

And

11:41

she's very She

11:44

has a certain charisma. She speaks in this

11:46

throaty and quite

11:48

deep commanding Roman

11:50

voice She's relatively young.

11:52

She's always looked relatively young and she's also

11:54

although she's forty five now, which is comparable to

11:56

other leaders, she came to prominence at a

11:59

relatively young age.

12:00

And

12:01

quite a lot of what's going on here is

12:04

probably support for a fresh face.

12:06

It's also worth noticing that

12:08

in the polls, her

12:10

particular party has about twenty five percent.

12:12

It's within a coalition of

12:14

right wing parties that are all together

12:16

look looks that for a majority. But

12:18

there's also a very there's such to be a very high level

12:20

of an abstention, something

12:23

around thirty five percent if if

12:25

Paul's Verre, which would be a record

12:27

for Italy. So lot of disaffection

12:29

in politics, and I think quite a

12:31

lot of what's going on here is frustration

12:33

on on part of the electorate.

12:35

That's

12:35

all very interesting and it really gives some

12:37

backdrop. It should be said though that

12:39

no politician with as clear

12:41

links to a fascist past. has

12:43

become prime minister of Italy since the war.

12:45

So it does mark a historical turning point in

12:47

that sense.

12:48

Definitely. Yeah. And it's worth mentioning as

12:50

well that during the campaign, a

12:52

video of her as a

12:54

teenage activist emerged. She was

12:56

speaking to a French television

12:58

station and she

13:00

said, you know, Mussolini was

13:02

a great politician, everything he

13:04

did he did for Italy. and that's exactly

13:06

the kind of rhetoric you would hear from these

13:08

fire rate activists. They

13:11

they kind of they defend the legacy of a

13:13

Muslini. They always play

13:15

down how much he

13:17

himself supported the more

13:19

toxic parts of fascism. Like they say, he

13:21

only introduced the racial laws

13:23

because Hitler wanted him to. That's the

13:25

kind of thing they say. And they're still anti

13:27

immigration, but they they insist

13:29

it's it's due to an economic

13:31

basis that immigrants cause wages

13:33

to lower. So they're sort of aware

13:35

of what's to do and what's not and trying to

13:37

kind of shift their

13:40

tradition into modernity without

13:42

without leaving behind

13:44

these these roots. And it's

13:46

also accompanied by a sort of they

13:49

still like to use the symbols and

13:52

rituals of fascism. And that goes for

13:54

Georgia Maloney's party too. It still has

13:56

the fascist flame as it's

13:58

as as its logo.

13:59

And there's, you know, it

14:02

it also has a slogan of

14:05

a god country, father and something like

14:07

that, which is also associated with

14:09

with the fascist

14:10

movements. So Maloney, brothers

14:13

of Italy seemed to some extent at least have

14:15

stolen close of the previous hard

14:17

rights party, which was the league

14:20

led by Salvini. And how

14:22

much of that has to do with Salvini

14:24

being I suppose in some

14:26

ways on the wrong side of history because he was so

14:28

associated with a pro Putin

14:30

position. Is that important in Italian

14:32

domestic politics or to domestic issues? Trump

14:34

that? I think it

14:35

is important. There's a lot

14:37

of debates initially about what the

14:39

right approach to Ukraine is,

14:43

but Matteo Salvini very

14:45

much had made

14:46

public his fascination with the

14:48

Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was pictured

14:51

wearing a Putin t shirt at one stage, you

14:53

know, he would praise his politics,

14:55

and that's very much discredited

14:57

among a significant part of the

14:59

electorate at this point. whatever hear

15:01

views on the approach to how

15:03

to support Ukraine or not.

15:06

outright

15:06

support for Putin is, I would say,

15:08

a fringe position. So

15:10

he has suffered from that. And

15:13

also, Miloni has taken advantage of

15:15

it by distinguishing

15:17

herself as pronator She

15:19

says we need a strong alliance with the United

15:21

States for Pro NATO. Also,

15:23

pro, you know, Europe Europe as a

15:25

whole having a stronger common defense.

15:28

and very much pro

15:30

Ukraine. Well,

15:32

she remains in a coalition though

15:34

that's running together with Salvini.

15:36

So let's assume they do win power.

15:38

They end up forming a coalition government.

15:41

This is a clear distinction between

15:43

those two parties where elsewhere their

15:45

policy of anti immigration and so on might

15:47

be similar. This approach to

15:49

Ukraine is is one one

15:51

thing that distinguishes them. So let's

15:53

imagine Salvini gets fed up with

15:55

playing the junior parter partner

15:57

in this coalition. It's an

15:59

opportunity for him to try to distinguish himself

16:01

again if picks the fight on that issue.

16:03

So this even though Melania

16:05

herself is pro Ukraine and pro the

16:07

western approach to

16:09

the invasion, it may yet become a

16:11

feature of the government because

16:13

Salveen may try to distinguish himself

16:15

again with his more

16:18

ambivalent views, criticizing sanctions

16:20

on Russia and so on. And

16:21

what then for the the domestic

16:24

issues and the domestic problems, which which

16:27

Italy faces, I mean,

16:29

both the league and and brothers of

16:31

Italy are a validly anti

16:33

immigrant. And indeed, I mean, I was look been

16:35

looking at some video clips. I saw one of the

16:37

other, but there's a basically candidate and Florence

16:39

walking down the street and pointing at a at

16:41

a roma woman and saying, you will never

16:43

have to see this woman again if we're elected.

16:45

So, I mean, that kind of illustrates what you're

16:47

talking about at some of the party members.

16:50

So immigration is

16:52

clearly is clearly an enormous

16:54

issue, but economic situation and the fact

16:56

that Italy has essentially suffered

16:58

almost two decades of economic stagnation

17:00

since the introduction of the euro

17:03

kind of runs as an undercurrent under Italian politics

17:05

and and is is an underlying cause of

17:07

a lot of the instability we've seen in in

17:09

recent decades, isn't it? completely.

17:11

And you can see how this underscores

17:15

what the platform of the right

17:17

is. It's all about how

17:19

to have a secure family life.

17:22

That's something that's been denied now

17:24

for generations of Italian young

17:26

people who can't start their lives, can't get

17:28

secure jobs, can't get housing, can't move

17:30

on.

17:31

And, you know, there's a

17:34

real inequality within

17:36

Italy in terms of who has a a

17:38

cure job and who's just totally on the black market and has

17:40

no rights at all. And overwhelmingly, it's

17:43

young people who are in the latter. And

17:45

then on the immigration side of things, this has just been like

17:47

a festering grievance for over

17:49

a decade now in Italy. I

17:52

think that the longevity

17:54

of this issue is perhaps overlooked

17:56

in northern countries. It

17:59

was really in two thousand eleven

18:01

that the arrivals across

18:03

the Mediterranean Sea, two

18:05

Italian islands started to

18:07

really pick up. And initially, the

18:10

response as it was in Greece was

18:13

it was focused on helping

18:15

people and trying to

18:17

accommodate them and an empathetic response.

18:20

But as the years have gone on,

18:22

that has really become

18:25

people have become very jaded.

18:28

the people who arrive

18:30

from over the Mediterranean and come

18:32

to Italy are very visible

18:34

in times in a way that they're not

18:36

perhaps in Northern Europe. So you'll see

18:39

incumbents at train stations or

18:41

under bridges, and this has been going on

18:43

for a very long time. There's this sense

18:45

that it's been an emergency for

18:47

perhaps a decade, and there hasn't

18:49

been an adequate institutional

18:52

response and part of the reason that Italy is caught in that

18:54

trap is because of the

18:56

EU, essentially, because

18:59

the the Dublin regulation

19:02

puts the responsibility of processing

19:05

asylum applications on the first

19:07

stage of entry, meaning that Italy because

19:09

of its geographical location

19:10

has to process all of these people even though

19:12

our

19:12

group ID has less resources to do so

19:15

because it's got a less strong economy and so

19:17

on. And even though these people who are

19:19

arriving don't necessarily already want to live

19:21

in Italy but intend to go further

19:23

north. So there's this long grievance that

19:25

Italy is

19:26

very strongly and widely felt in Italy,

19:28

I would say across the political

19:31

spectrum that they've been abandoned by

19:33

Europe with this issue to

19:35

to and that they need more support,

19:37

particularly from northern countries to to

19:39

deal with it. And it it

19:41

is totally tied up again with the

19:44

economic situation that you that you

19:46

described the lack of growth for

19:49

two decades.

19:50

Italy has

19:52

fundamental structural problems,

19:55

particularly in aging population.

19:57

and it's a kind of reality

19:59

that informs Italian politics in

20:01

a way that it's like a vicious

20:04

cycle because there's

20:06

less opportunity for young people. There's less spending on

20:08

young people. Less spending on things like education.

20:11

There's a much

20:11

larger, older, a lecturer that

20:14

keeps voting

20:15

to keep that in place, to

20:18

keep spending, to be

20:20

skewed towards older generations on

20:22

things like pensions, health, and

20:24

so on. and that in turn causes more young

20:26

people to emigrate and more and more

20:28

concentrates the voting block among

20:30

the old. So it's a

20:32

very difficult trap to get out

20:34

of.

20:34

And there's

20:36

there's more to be said

20:37

about that, particularly because I think

20:39

that often the nature

20:41

of Italy's economy is misunderstood

20:43

outside of Italy in terms of

20:45

where spending is at. It sort of portrayed

20:47

as this really irresponsible spending

20:50

spending economy when, in fact, you know,

20:52

the story, the real story of the last

20:54

few decades is that they've been

20:57

imposing essentially dirty for an extremely

20:59

long time and trying to not let

21:01

their debt grow anymore. Yep.

21:03

So, I

21:03

mean, some economic point to

21:05

the euro is the problem on this. That when the Italian economic

21:08

miracle because it was kind of a miracle that

21:10

happened in the post war decades. happened

21:12

that that that the success of governments and they came

21:14

and went very rapidly, but there was a

21:16

continuity there. They had control of fiscal

21:18

policy and there was a there was a regular

21:21

quite frequent, the beta devaluation of the lira,

21:23

which enabled them to stabilize

21:25

at the level, which suited them in the

21:27

international marketplace. And of course, they lost all that and

21:29

they lost that control. introduction of

21:31

the euro?

21:32

Yeah. It's a complex story more than

21:35

one factor. Italy is a major

21:37

manufacturing economy. It's

21:39

it's the EU's manufacturing powerhouse

21:41

after Germany. And yeah, having

21:43

the power to devalue your currency is

21:45

helpful for exports. The

21:48

story of Italy's debt

21:50

is really one that they there was

21:53

misspending in the nineteen

21:55

eighties, particularly and there

21:57

was then borrowing at high interest

21:59

rates and primarily the debt burden

22:01

that has been weighing on Italy is

22:03

paying back interest paying back interest

22:05

on this really old debt. that isn't,

22:07

you know, causing any benefits now.

22:09

And then in terms of

22:11

this they are tied into

22:13

having to keep doing that

22:16

and keep balancing the books and being very fiscally responsible

22:19

because of their membership

22:21

of the euro and because they are bound by

22:23

the EU's fiscal rules. and

22:25

that's something that they want to reform. They want a

22:27

a way to to get out of that and try

22:29

to invest more so that

22:32

they can their economy and then be

22:34

in a better place to pay down this

22:36

debt. It's a long running grievance.

22:38

We don't know the counter fact

22:40

show what would have happened initially if it

22:43

wasn't in the Euro. We don't know

22:45

that. We it's it's difficult to

22:47

separate out as well. What's the economic benefit of

22:49

being in the single market, which is undoubtedly

22:52

significant. And, you know, whether

22:54

it was feasible for Italy, not to be

22:56

part of this currency if all of the other

22:58

countries around are.

22:59

But it it is

23:00

it is a debate. But what I think what's

23:03

really significant about

23:05

Italian politics is

23:08

how the idea of leaving the euro or leaving the

23:10

EU has completely

23:12

collapsed as a political position

23:14

since Brexit. That's no

23:16

longer a vote winner. there's

23:18

actually AAA party called

23:20

ItaLexus that's actually running in this

23:22

election, and you might not have heard of them because

23:24

they're on less than three percent in

23:26

the polls. It's a real minority

23:28

position. They're out right for leaving

23:30

the Yuri, leaving the EU. And all

23:32

those other parties

23:33

that wants distinguish themselves based on

23:35

euros skepticism or some level

23:37

of criticism towards the EU. They've all

23:40

moderated in order to you

23:42

know, keep on board with their lectures. So

23:46

you no longer hear talk of Italy

23:48

have a referendum or

23:50

or, you know, return of the lira or any of

23:52

these things. This is this is this is very

23:55

much left the mainstream of Italian

23:57

politics since

23:58

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24:33

So

24:35

what can we expect

24:36

if as anticipated from the

24:39

polls? And we should say there's a blackout on polls and

24:41

polls. Initially, the last one, I

24:43

think was on September the ninth and there won't be another one before

24:45

the election. But if those polls are correct,

24:47

what kind of a government will

24:49

we guess? Is this the sort of the

24:52

conventional center right policies,

24:55

which brothers of Italy are portraying

24:57

themselves as being in now or

24:59

do LGBT queue people and

25:02

people who aren't white? Do they have anything

25:04

to fear from this government? If

25:06

the polls bear out, the

25:09

coalition would be made up of

25:11

Sylvia Burlesco these

25:13

party. sort of a more conventional

25:15

center right party. And then

25:17

these two other parties of

25:20

LEGO and brothers

25:22

eventually under Salvini

25:24

and Maloney. In terms

25:26

of what their program will be,

25:29

the there

25:32

is a lot of concern about

25:35

what is Maloney's

25:37

true position regarding the rights of gay people.

25:40

because she has appeared at

25:42

family rights rallies,

25:44

meaning defense of the traditional

25:47

family. rallies rallies.

25:49

And she is positioned herself

25:51

as someone who does represent

25:54

those socially conservative

25:56

values. opposition to gay

25:59

marriage.

25:59

She's moderated those views again. So

26:02

this time, she says in her

26:04

electoral that she won't

26:06

touch civil unions, which

26:08

gay people have the right to civil unions,

26:10

initially. But what she as opposed to

26:12

is adoption rights. that that

26:15

is a position that is

26:17

fairly widespread initially.

26:19

And she's she's saying that because, you

26:21

know, there's a certain electorate that supports it.

26:23

So she's saying she

26:26

she said the same thing about abortion,

26:29

that she's not in

26:31

favor of rolling back abortion rights

26:33

for women, which are very have been

26:35

embedded for a very, very long time. Usually, they're they're

26:37

you know, those rules are quite old.

26:39

But what she wants, she says,

26:40

is more choice for women. So

26:43

if you do find

26:44

yourself pregnant in a difficult situation

26:46

and maybe you don't have a

26:48

partner or you're very young or something, you'll have the supports you

26:50

need in order to raise the child instead of

26:52

having an abortion. So this is the way

26:54

she's kind of posing

26:56

her policies in a way

26:59

to continue to appeal to

27:01

her hardline base while

27:03

making them as as less

27:05

scary as possible. to

27:06

the to the broader electorate?

27:10

And then

27:10

how it will bear out is this,

27:13

you know, it's a it's an important

27:15

question. We don't really know. But it

27:17

is important to note that, you know, this is a

27:19

coalition. It's a coalition government.

27:21

It's difficult to get any laws

27:23

through initially. It's still it it this

27:25

is one of the features of Italian parliamentary

27:27

politics that is difficult to pass

27:30

things, and it takes a very

27:32

long time. So it's it's difficult for one party like this

27:34

to come in and suddenly impose

27:36

really extreme policy

27:38

changes because the the way

27:40

the system is structured

27:43

it

27:43

it it kind of it makes that for it makes that

27:45

extremely difficult. That's why there's been

27:47

some of these suggestions that there should be

27:49

a electoral reform to make reforms

27:53

more easy so that there, you know,

27:55

more difficult changes could be made.

27:57

And for

27:58

migrants? She

28:00

wants

28:00

to have what she calls a naval

28:03

blockade. What that means

28:05

is she's in favor

28:07

of She doesn't want

28:09

there to be any more crossings across

28:11

the Mediterranean Sea, and she wants

28:14

any asylum applications to

28:16

be processed outside of

28:16

the EU. This is

28:18

actually a proposal that's

28:20

been around from different

28:23

political groups

28:23

in the European Union, this idea of

28:26

extraterrestrial ex

28:29

EU processing centers.

28:31

so that only those people who

28:33

are already approved as refugees

28:36

would then be relocated into the

28:38

EU rather than people coming and then maybe

28:40

being deported

28:41

or hanging around

28:42

or whatever this this complex

28:44

and messy

28:44

situation that there is currently. And

28:46

they wouldn't all land on Italy shore as either in

28:48

that case, either would they necessarily?

28:50

Yes. So this is

28:53

again a contentious issue

28:55

Southern European countries like Italy and

28:57

others

28:58

have been they've they've

29:00

asked for what

29:02

they call solid they call solidarity. So some kind

29:04

of system for dividing

29:05

up where migrants go in

29:07

the EU. So it might not

29:09

it might not be that, you know, the person

29:11

who's who's emigrating, who's coming to

29:13

Europe decides, oh, I want to

29:16

go to Ireland or I want to go to Denmark

29:18

or wherever it might be. but there might be some

29:20

sort of quota that each EU

29:22

country agrees to

29:24

according to its size. That

29:26

proposal has been halted

29:28

for many, many years, mostly due

29:30

to opposition among eastern and

29:32

central European states, which also have very

29:34

strong anti immigration politics and

29:36

they are very opposed to having some sort of quota

29:39

of of of migrants imposed on them

29:41

because they don't get very many at

29:43

the moment. that whole migration

29:46

file. That is something that

29:48

needs to be reformed at the EU level,

29:50

and it's something it's extremely dysfunctional

29:54

debate, I would say, and

29:56

it's been deadlocked for a very, very

29:58

long time. The advent of

29:59

Maloney probably as Italian prime minister, I

30:02

doubt would change that. At

30:04

European level though, what what an

30:06

Italian prime minister from the hard right would

30:08

represent would be a strengthening

30:10

in the block of hard

30:13

right powers in Europe. So she's in the

30:15

same European group as Poland's law and

30:17

justice, for example, And, yeah,

30:21

they they cooperate. And

30:23

also, she's she's made it quite clear that she's

30:25

she's on good terms with Vox

30:27

in Spain. and that she hopes that if

30:29

she wins, then Vox will do well in

30:31

Spain as well that, you know, will open the door

30:33

to a hard right Spanish government.

30:35

So She she does hope to cast this as a kind of wave.

30:37

The main things that will be watched

30:39

internationally though are two

30:41

two big questions does

30:44

this change in government mean anything

30:46

for the wider Western consensus

30:48

about Ukraine and on

30:50

EU sanctions? The answer

30:52

to that is probably no. There probably won't be

30:54

a huge change there. And the second big question

30:56

is, is this government going

30:58

to keep Italy, economically since

31:01

we may well be heading into this massive recession,

31:04

Italy, because

31:04

of all of its dash, would be very vulnerable.

31:06

It's very vulnerable to increases in

31:09

interest rates and debt becoming more expensive and so on. So

31:11

you end up with this

31:13

scary

31:14

prospect of of

31:17

default and, you know, everything that we were familiar with

31:19

in the Eurozone crisis. Call

31:22

me back again. Because

31:23

the powers that be in Brussels and

31:25

indeed Frankfurt were

31:27

were kind of given comfort by the presence of

31:29

Mario Draghi at the head of this technocratic

31:32

government.

31:32

Oh, absolutely. Yeah. They were delighted. I

31:34

mean, everyone in Brussels was like, at

31:36

at the institutional level, we're just, like, so

31:39

happy to have married drug. He is the Italian Prime

31:41

Minister. And there was all this talk about,

31:43

you know, Italy's back, you know,

31:45

and it can finally have the

31:47

appropriate weight that it should as a

31:49

large country in the EU in a

31:51

major economy and so on. rather

31:53

than being politically marginalized, which it

31:55

has been because of its political instability

31:58

for so many years.

31:59

So yeah, they

32:02

were so happy. And at that point,

32:04

remember in during the pandemic,

32:07

the EU

32:07

agreed this unprecedented economic

32:11

stimulus fund of seven fifty billion

32:13

in a mix of grants and loans, of

32:16

which Italy received the

32:18

single largest amount. So

32:20

how to spend that

32:22

and whether it will be spent well, that's

32:24

a major concern. And

32:26

I remember I was speaking to members

32:29

of Mario Draghi's team

32:31

initially when they this first they

32:34

were first designing how this money would be spent.

32:36

And they

32:37

were aware that his

32:40

however long he had in in in power as

32:42

prime minister, it was going to

32:44

be temporary. and they told me at time they were creating

32:46

structures so that there would be a

32:48

a sort of a permanent civil service in

32:50

charge of how this money was

32:52

spent. So irrespective of a

32:54

a change in hands as prime

32:56

minister, the the the the

32:58

program the money would still be

33:00

spent wisely. we'll see.

33:03

So Miloni's platform

33:05

does say that she wants changes

33:07

to how

33:07

the money is spent according to

33:09

the new crises,

33:11

which isn't COVID, but is now the war in

33:13

Ukraine and the energy crisis. I would

33:15

say that that is not an unusual position

33:17

among many countries that have yet to spend

33:19

this money. But,

33:20

yeah, that that will be very, very

33:22

closely watched, and it could be

33:24

a flash point for potential conflict

33:26

or tension between Italy and let's say

33:28

the European Commission. If commission is is

33:31

sort of looking over the shoulder of the of the

33:33

government in Rome and saying, you should spend on

33:35

this and not on that, and maybe they want to

33:37

spend something differently and the and the commissioner is

33:39

making concern noises. That could be a

33:41

potential source of tension. And

33:42

then right at the other end of Europe in a very

33:45

different political culture in

33:47

Naomi in Sweden, you have what on the surface

33:49

might look like a rather similar election

33:52

result with rice wing party with

33:55

some roots in the really far

33:57

right neo nazism and doing really

33:59

well becoming the largest party of

34:01

right in Sweden and potentially entering government.

34:03

But it's very different. It's a very different

34:05

political background, although there is a common cause in

34:07

the issue of immigration. Yes.

34:09

I

34:09

think the advent of

34:12

the

34:12

Sweden Democrats, it's

34:15

a reflection of There

34:16

are a couple of trends in Europe at the One is these parties

34:19

which were once taboo or

34:21

considered beyond the pale. entering

34:24

into coalitions and being

34:26

accepted by other parties and

34:28

coalitions as partners, but

34:30

perhaps the more significant trend

34:33

is the introduction of

34:34

their ideas, the mainstreaming of

34:36

far right ideas into the center,

34:39

and even their adoption by left

34:41

wing parties in some cases, ideas

34:43

about, you know, the need to

34:46

protect some sort of European civilization, a lot

34:48

of the rhetoric

34:50

around immigration, that has been completely mainstream

34:52

particularly in Scandinavia. It's a

34:54

long running trend. Yeah. We've seen it

34:56

already

34:56

in Denmark where quite

34:59

really very strong anti immigrant policies have been brought

35:01

in under pressure from a right wing party in the

35:03

Danish people's party in that case. So it does

35:06

Scandinavian politics is shifting from what people

35:09

many people in this country talk with the social democratic ideal. It's

35:11

it's kind of moving away from that on

35:13

some level even if it's largely performative.

35:16

Proformative

35:16

is key. It's been

35:20

a trend in Denmark

35:22

in particular to see there's

35:24

been a competition among political parties

35:26

about who can be the most crass

35:28

to on the immigration issue

35:30

and who can propose the most headline grabbing performative

35:36

policy. Like, for example, the

35:38

jewelry law which said that, you

35:41

know, that any valuables from

35:44

from refugees and asylum seekers coming

35:46

into Denmark could be seized from

35:48

them to be used to pay for

35:51

their their processing. This to my

35:54

knowledge has never actually

35:56

been used or if it has it's

35:58

been extremely little,

35:59

which kind of reveals what this

36:02

was. It's the use of policy for campaigning

36:04

purposes. This is something which we're now familiar

36:06

with increasingly from the UK

36:08

as well. It's the

36:10

politicization of policy. Policies being

36:12

proposed not to fix the

36:14

problem that's being identified

36:16

so much as to communicate as

36:19

communication tools, to position a party

36:21

as as, you know, very tough on

36:23

immigration or whatever the the

36:25

matter might be. and

36:28

that's a that's a feature to write Scandinavia and

36:30

it's something that all the parties are doing. It's

36:32

forced it's

36:33

forced it's it's been

36:34

sort of precipitated by the rise

36:37

of the hard right, but it's forced all

36:39

of the the parties

36:41

to compete on that ground.

36:43

And thereby, it's it's

36:46

normalized pretty stream rhetoric on on policies in some

36:48

cases. So for many of the the

36:50

hard right

36:50

parties of the source, which we're discussing

36:54

here today, the the government of Viktor Orban in

36:56

Hungary was a sort of a

36:58

touchstone of their ideas being put into

37:00

practice and

37:02

there are rhetoric being uttered from the halls the halls of government in

37:05

at least in at least one European country, probably

37:07

others as well, but particularly Hungary.

37:10

Now that's changed a little bit as we mentioned in relation

37:13

to to Italy because of what's happened

37:15

in in in Ukraine.

37:18

And Orban seems a little more isolated now, and

37:21

I wonder about the announcement this

37:23

week of these these

37:26

measures reducing funding to Hungary over the next few years.

37:28

Are they likely to have real

37:30

impact or effect in your view?

37:34

So,

37:34

yeah, maybe just to recap, the European Commission has proposed

37:37

cutting or or

37:39

freezing outlay of

37:42

EU funds too hungry to the tune of about seven billion. And

37:44

there's negotiations ongoing for another

37:46

seven point five billion, which has

37:48

been held

37:50

up in both cases due to concerns about the rule of law and

37:53

and misspending of these funds. I

37:55

mean, to to put it crudely, Victor

37:57

Orban is accused of using these

37:59

funds, channeling these funds to

38:02

allies and to keep

38:04

himself in power. So the

38:06

commission said there was all kinds of concerns

38:08

like many public contracts only ever

38:10

had one bidder, all sorts

38:12

of things. So, you know, for for

38:15

those who've been pushing for action on Hungary

38:17

for a long time, this is too little,

38:19

too late, and there's too many loopholes,

38:21

there's too many ways that Hungary could

38:23

still wiggle out of this and unlock the

38:26

money. And then, you know, for

38:28

those who are

38:29

perhaps against it and

38:31

want the money then then it's it's a step too

38:33

far. What the Commission has essentially done is it

38:36

has pushed this issue to

38:38

be decided by the

38:40

governments of the EU member states. They're the

38:42

ones that ultimately have to decide whether to

38:44

approve this proposal or not. So

38:46

it's kicked the can to

38:48

the European Council, to to the member

38:50

state governments, and they they have to

38:52

decide. All

38:54

in all, Orban is way more isolated in

38:56

the EU than he was

38:58

before the invasion of Ukraine. He's

39:00

attempted to sort of straddle the fence on this

39:02

invasion by

39:04

remaining

39:04

kind of maintaining a

39:07

relationship

39:07

with Putin, talking about

39:09

special deals for Hungary, where they continue

39:11

to get cheap gas,

39:14

opposing sanctions in some cases,

39:16

sirrefusing to allow arms for

39:18

Ukraine to cross the territory of Hungary,

39:22

Yeah. Stravic being rather

39:24

ambiguous, basically, on on whether he's

39:26

actually part of the

39:28

Western

39:28

support for Ukraine or not.

39:31

and that

39:32

has alienated him enormously as

39:34

including from some of his Iranian

39:36

allies like Poland. The Polish

39:39

government has been horrified by Karyan.

39:42

So as well as many of the the

39:44

Central Eastern European member

39:46

states in the Baltics. So he's he's

39:48

more isolated than ever before whereas

39:50

previously it was northern and western

39:52

countries that, you know, were sort of fed up

39:54

and and disgusted with the Orban. It's

39:56

much more widely felt So it's possible that

39:58

patients had run out with him now. And

40:00

it's so interesting to see how much

40:02

maloney she

40:04

positions herself to the

40:06

outside world. She's very much

40:08

addressing an international audience.

40:10

She makes messages in English and French

40:12

and Italian And and most of what

40:14

she's trying to say to the outside world is

40:16

I'm not Orban. I'm actually pro

40:19

NATO. I'm pro Ukraine.

40:21

And so she's she's very

40:24

aware of not of of trying to

40:26

avoid being put into that camp and and not

40:28

being isolated. So it's interesting to

40:30

see an example of a hard

40:32

right party that's that's sort of

40:34

evolving and and changing

40:36

his positions in response to this isolation

40:38

of women.

40:38

Naomi, thanks very much indeed for joining

40:41

us today. and that's it for today. Our producer was Deacon

40:43

Conner, our engineer is JJ Vernon. We're

40:45

gonna be back very soon indeed, but

40:47

until then, goodbye, and thanks very

40:49

much for listening.

40:59

Hi. I'm

41:02

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41:02

HR. Yes. The actual software,

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hard HR's job is. Hey HR, can

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you find me the perfect candidate? Oh, and can you

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make sure when they start, they don't leave in

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the first months like everybody else. Oh, and can you react quickly to

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every single curveball and employee government agency

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or the company throws at you every

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day always? h

41:24

r, you deserve software that has your back.

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And well, that's me. Try

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r dot com.