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At a time when investors

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are confronted with market volatility

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and or variety of challenge

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is fueled by the uncertainty

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of inflation, unsettled geopolitical tensions.

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And economic pressures just and

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Klein and Steve peacefully stand.

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Ready to take your finance

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and investment questions and share

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their unbiased answers. This is

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Invest Dog. Independent thinking, shared

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success. Invest Talk is made

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The cleary for your

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afternoon fellow Investors in a

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Welcome Back to Invest talk.

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This is our Wednesday, April

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seventeenth. Twenty Twenty Four Addition.

1:01

I. Am just incline and our

1:03

objective. Here. Is the same

1:06

as always is to help

1:08

you navigate this new world.

1:10

this new environments of fiscal

1:12

dominance where the risk of

1:14

inflation is. Frankly,

1:16

Even more important than the risk

1:19

of a deflationary bust like, oh,

1:21

wait, And it's a new

1:23

regime. It's a new environment that most

1:25

people are not used to. People start

1:28

Ptsd and we are. Job is to

1:30

help shake you are that Ptsd and

1:32

help you understand the facts that are

1:34

happening on the ground. From.

1:37

A macro perspective. Broader. Economy.

1:40

Government. Spending, etc. As

1:43

well as a micro perspective

1:45

meaning what's happening for with

1:47

individual companies with the individual

1:49

sectors and asset classes. And

1:51

so this is. What?

1:53

We cover each and every day on this

1:55

show. a little bit of everything. But

1:58

mainly it's about. The you

2:00

the right mindset for you're not. Running.

2:04

After the dog whistles that

2:07

are everywhere which is which

2:09

are are are headlines and

2:11

social media posts that are

2:13

grandiose are and can often.

2:16

Be fear mongering and help

2:19

and takes your mind off

2:21

of. The. Reality of

2:23

what is happening in

2:25

markets in economies. To.

2:27

That most important not about which where

2:29

were you hope the market will be

2:32

or help the economy will be or

2:34

hope they're your The political environment will

2:36

will trend towards. That. Does

2:38

not matter. What? Matters is

2:40

what will. And what

2:42

is? Happening. Okay,

2:45

and that is. Our.

2:48

Goal here. And.

2:50

When. It comes to making good decisions with

2:52

your money, that is. What?

2:55

Your goal should be. Is.

2:57

The. Build. The right mindset. To.

3:01

Avoid mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls it

3:03

so many people fall prey to.

3:07

Use. Their emotions are being just a human

3:09

being. And.

3:13

Focus. On the opportunities that are out

3:15

there. Because there are many opportunities are a

3:17

lot of opportunities are always opportunities in markets.

3:20

It's just a matter of looking. In the

3:22

right place, under the right rock. And

3:24

our job is to help you

3:26

identify the identify those rocks to

3:29

look Under oath of you do

3:31

pick up that rock and grab

3:33

that opportunity. Settled.

3:35

Says market is of about a

3:37

show is about. And.

3:40

With. That said, I want to pivot

3:43

over to our Market Madness contest.

3:45

And we do have. A

3:47

winner. Let. Me:

3:49

Pull it up here. And

3:52

to shut down my email and I I had a

3:54

name. He. May second! Ah,

3:56

our original winner of this original

3:58

winner In response, Her

4:00

And so we actually a in

4:02

the rules Yeah, seven Days respond.

4:05

And. We. We're giving it

4:07

to the second place winner. With.

4:09

My. Every go.

4:15

Got it? It. Is Raw

4:17

A Richard. The.

4:20

Than. The Never leave. A

4:23

He is our winner at of. Strongsville.

4:26

Ohio Strongsville, Ohio. Ah congratulations

4:28

we will be getting a

4:31

check to you later this

4:33

week. You are at the

4:35

grand prize winner and are

4:37

not girl. Invest. Hot

4:39

Market Madness Contest. Now.

4:42

That said, We'll. Talk about today's market

4:44

performance in just a bit rundown. Some show

4:46

topics for right after answer first call a

4:48

question. Now. A

4:50

just downloads. It's a jar from Georgia.

4:52

I just wonder what yeah thought about

4:54

Room Eleven. Hundred from follow

4:56

for a wearing. What a good price point

4:59

would be to pick it up or if

5:01

if you an orthogonal like for everything. All.

5:04

Right looking at Lou Lou Lemon

5:06

as Medica and this is a

5:09

name that is down pretty nicely.

5:11

France it's too, because I'm thirty

5:13

three percent the third in just

5:16

a handful of a months. And

5:18

that's because. Analysts' Expectations

5:20

going forward have been coming down pretty

5:22

dramatically. Growth is as been coming. Because

5:25

growth is becoming down. No dividend yield

5:28

which is fine with me because it is

5:30

a very good business, but it it it's

5:32

always traded that a bit of a premium

5:34

and it makes sense. They have a very.

5:37

Quality. Business It's okay to

5:39

pay a premium for such

5:41

a great business return on

5:43

equity. Forty three percent. So.

5:46

I love what he's looking at. Quality

5:48

is not chasing. it's a Devin. He's

5:50

looking at quality businesses that are a

5:52

bit down on their luck. Now from

5:55

I'm on a weekly chart perspective. It's.

5:57

In a support. Riding. around three thirty

6:00

So I will say that Net

6:04

cash in its balance sheet so no debt I

6:06

love that enterprise value to even though right now

6:08

is at about 15 and a half and

6:11

that is near the low end of its longer

6:14

term Average so I actually

6:16

think this is a good place to

6:18

be picking up lulu limit now

6:21

That doesn't mean it can't continue to go

6:23

down a bit more the technicals near term

6:25

are not amazing It's

6:28

getting a bit of a bounce yesterday and today,

6:30

but that that's just two days

6:32

after Such a poor

6:34

move or a poor showing

6:37

after earnings It was at

6:39

480 after earnings went down to

6:41

about $400 per share and like I said now

6:43

around three three forty four So from

6:45

a fundamental standpoint, it looks solid

6:48

from a technical standpoint It's

6:50

at support, but it doesn't mean that support can't

6:53

be broken So but this would

6:55

be a place where I might start my position, but maybe

6:57

not buy the whole thing Thanks

7:00

for the call Now we're

7:02

going to do a short break on the other side

7:04

I'll talk about the plan topics for today's show as

7:06

well as the market activity and please remember that you

7:08

can call anytime And leave your questions on the best

7:10

by boys think if you're listening via our live stream

7:12

or an AM 1220 radio in Silicon Valley area you

7:14

can call right now at 8 at 899 chart I

7:22

Invest talk callers make each

7:24

podcast unique I

7:26

was calling about Intel if it's worth

7:28

holding on to or should I sell

7:30

it their questions are curious I

7:33

have been up around $80,000 now wondering

7:36

what I should do to make it

7:43

Concerned it's taken

7:46

quite the temple today I've been trying to get out

7:48

this position for a while. I think I waited

7:50

too long and clever Look at that

7:52

Dominion Energy Inc. This Seemed

7:55

to be situated in some areas

7:57

of expanding population and just incline

7:59

and now Luke Guerrero are always

8:02

ready with their unbiased dancers and

8:04

the to vote for your classic

8:06

example of cheating your don't chase

8:08

the yields next twelve months price

8:11

earnings is around thirty. I just

8:13

don't see it at this price.

8:15

Don't forget to call Invest Talk

8:18

Eight Eight Eight Ninety Nine Chart.

8:29

Portfolio. Balanced is it

8:31

optimized. Is. It delivering

8:33

the types of games you

8:36

want and need to achieve

8:38

financial freedom. Well turn up

8:40

the volume because there are

8:42

many questions that deserve unbiased

8:44

dancers and Just Incline is

8:47

here now ready to take

8:49

your goes Live Eight Eight

8:51

Eight Ninety Nine Shards. Know

8:56

a lot of ground to cover over

8:58

next forty five minutes and my main

9:01

focus point concerns a story set up

9:03

at the sublime. Fifteen Sachs has destroyed

9:05

the Most Worth over the past decade,

9:07

and I love this article because it

9:10

really. It really

9:12

shows how. Companies.

9:14

Across many industries can lose

9:16

value for their shareholders for

9:18

many reasons and we're going

9:20

to talk about ah, a

9:22

lot of these and the

9:24

lessons that can be gleaned

9:27

from. The. These these poor

9:29

performers over the past decade. Also.

9:32

I want to touch a bit on Ai

9:34

and how. Yes, It's going to

9:36

consume a lot more power. That is

9:38

a. A trend that's

9:41

going to shape. Our.

9:43

Economies. So the the industrial

9:45

economy for oh I figures

9:48

the com. I. The

9:50

there's a report that the

9:53

average A eyes certs. Consumes,

9:56

Ten times more. Electricity

9:59

van. The. Average

10:01

google search. And. So.

10:03

How would that impact the demand

10:06

for energy? For discuss that and

10:08

also how they could potentially help

10:10

save energy as well. So it

10:12

with all things there's there's two

10:14

sides you and we're gonna look

10:16

at both sides also. There's.

10:18

Antitrust New Antitrust lawsuit against

10:20

Live Nation Live Nation and

10:22

I think this is why

10:24

those ones that could easily

10:26

win easily win That's why

10:28

my these new town big

10:31

yesterday and frankly was down

10:33

the live at more today

10:35

so we're going to unpack

10:37

that story. And then if

10:39

we have time, we have time. What?

10:43

Is. What? Went when.

10:46

People get fear monger. They often

10:48

fear monger about things that. People.

10:51

Know about. The

10:53

reason away happiness because people words

10:55

paying attention to see the O's

10:58

in their leverage and and the

11:00

poor lending within the that the

11:02

the mortgage space. Flights.

11:05

In. Today's world. Regulator.

11:08

As investors, they're always. Fair.

11:10

Ptsd as I said at the top the show and

11:12

so. Very. Their parts

11:14

of the financial system that.

11:18

May. Be overlooked and that's real where

11:20

the real risk comes from. So

11:22

we're going to look at where

11:24

the potential problems with goal thanks

11:26

to system are in. Frankly, they're

11:28

not where. The average person is

11:30

one. Thousand.

11:34

I was on the docket for us

11:36

well says for have voiced bank questions

11:38

in regards to bank resources also Vanguard

11:40

Total Stock Market Index as well as

11:42

some questions from our youtube channel and

11:44

of course I welcome your finance and

11:46

invest and questions doubt aided Eight Ninety

11:49

Nine chart. Know.

11:52

sick now it's like a look

11:55

at the market today it was

11:57

another negative day over all the

11:59

snp was down. It was

12:03

down 29 points, mainly

12:05

on the growth side of the market. Small

12:08

cap growth down 1.09%, mid cap growth down 1.15%.

12:10

Mid cap value was actually up slightly. Large cap

12:19

growth down 0.69%. Tesla

12:22

was down a little over 1% and that continues

12:24

its weakness. AMD down

12:26

5.7%. Definitely seeing some weakness creep

12:29

into semiconductors. Nvidia down nearly 4%,

12:31

Pfizer down another 1%. What were

12:34

some big gainers? United Airlines was up

12:36

17%. What else?

12:40

The airlines, they had good

12:42

earnings. But overall,

12:44

you continue with this market pullback.

12:47

And it is something,

12:49

it kind of says at the

12:51

start of the year, it was we're expecting softness

12:54

in the back half of the first quarter, early

12:56

second quarter. And frankly, we didn't get that

12:58

in the back half of the first quarter. We

13:00

got it pretty much at the start of this

13:02

second quarter. And we're

13:06

getting into potential support on the S&P. The

13:08

first major support level is going to be

13:10

right here around 4973, $4973 points, shall we

13:12

say. Right now,

13:17

the S&P closed at 5022. So

13:19

about 1% from here

13:21

is the first major support level. And then the

13:23

next major support level will be down around 4821.

13:26

So that's another, you know, 5, 6%

13:28

from here.

13:31

So, you know, I think

13:33

that's possible. And

13:35

frankly, that wouldn't be out of the ordinary.

13:38

It would be a normal market pullback in the

13:40

midst of a long uptrend. I say

13:42

this many times, and

13:45

I have to beat it home because

13:47

so many people look at times like this

13:49

and they start to get all

13:52

nervous and those emotions creep

13:54

in that fear. But

13:57

if you back up and you say in any

13:59

given year, the average pullback is 10%. So

14:03

that means you should always expect from

14:05

any given point, the market to drop 10%

14:08

in relatively short period of time can happen in a

14:10

month or two. And that's

14:12

what you're, you're, you're likely seeing

14:14

now so far. It's been a

14:16

drop of yeah, about 5%. So

14:18

do we get to 6% do we get to

14:20

10, 12% potentially? Um,

14:23

but overall the credit markets are holding in, we're in

14:25

the world of fiscal dominance, they said at the top

14:27

of the show, and that makes it very difficult to

14:29

have a major drawdown in

14:31

equities. Um, that, uh,

14:35

is fundamentally related,

14:37

uh, because earnings are

14:40

not amazing, but they're, they're still

14:42

growing. And so, uh, I think

14:44

this is a pullback that you

14:47

don't want to get too bearish on,

14:49

uh, and frankly, it's, it's

14:52

needed. It's healthy when you get these, uh,

14:54

modest pullbacks. Now we're moving into a break.

14:56

So to come in this podcast, I'll

14:58

tackle a YouTube comment question and your

15:00

voice bank calls. So stay with me,

15:03

but give us a call at eight to eight. Every

15:18

investor is working to build

15:21

a secure financial future, how

15:23

they get there and when they

15:26

get there, that depends on many

15:28

variables. The more you learn

15:30

about how the market works, the better

15:32

your chances. So don't

15:34

forget to call invest talk 88899

15:37

chart. Now,

15:41

my main talking point today is about, or

15:44

main focus point today is about 15 stocks

15:47

that destroyed the most wealth over

15:49

the past decade. There's some lessons

15:51

here for you to learn and

15:55

you know, those that

15:57

destroy value don't

16:00

typically destroy as much as those

16:02

that create value. Meaning

16:05

when you have a good business and you

16:07

create value over time, you can

16:09

go up many multiples of an

16:11

investment. But when you

16:14

go down, you can just go down 100%, that's it. But

16:18

the odds of experiencing a loss on any

16:20

in one individual stock over a 10 year

16:22

period is actually relatively high. The

16:24

value and the equity markets are

16:27

typically concentrated in the

16:29

upper 2030 names. And

16:32

so it's very easy

16:34

to get caught up into names that destroy

16:37

value. And a lot of them are

16:39

some very large companies that you

16:41

would recognize. And

16:45

I'll list off a few. Now the

16:47

biggest was GE. GE,

16:50

yes it's rallied as of late,

16:52

but it's still down significantly from

16:55

its all time high. And

16:58

it's issued a lot of shares over

17:01

that time. And Biogen

17:04

IDEC is the second, Las Vegas Sands,

17:07

Walgreens Boots Alliance is fourth and

17:09

then Paramount Global is fifth. So

17:11

those are the top five. And

17:14

there are some lessons that

17:17

to be gleaned from many of these. Now

17:19

the first is that acquisitions

17:22

often fail to create shareholder

17:24

value. This is where I see

17:26

probably the biggest or

17:29

the easiest way for large companies

17:31

to run astray. Is

17:34

they have a good business, they

17:37

are, their

17:39

growth may be slowing, they may have

17:41

some challenges and they think that an

17:44

acquisition will pull them out of their

17:46

spiral. That an acquisition is

17:48

the key to unlocking the potential of

17:52

the capital that they have. And

17:54

sometimes that can be true, but

17:57

very often it's disruptive.

18:00

the ethos of the

18:02

company, the

18:07

culture that a company has built

18:09

over many years. And

18:11

it can take

18:13

them away from focusing on the

18:16

core business that has allowed

18:18

them to get so big. And

18:21

on top of that, they often chase

18:23

the shiny object, meaning they buy into

18:26

fats and chase the

18:28

company that has good revenue

18:31

growth, much better than theirs, maybe

18:33

doesn't have as much profitability, is

18:36

still much smaller than them. And they think

18:38

they can, you know, they

18:40

want exposure. They can't build that exposure to that

18:42

shiny object, that shiny part of the sector

18:45

that's doing well. And so they go

18:47

out there and they purchase that. And

18:50

so this happened

18:53

with think AOL Time Warner is

18:55

a good example, that kind of sink them.

18:58

Now on this list, GE is one of

19:00

those, where they had a sprawling portfolio of

19:02

businesses across different areas, and it created too

19:04

much complexity and lack of focus. And that

19:06

led to a lot of their downfall and

19:08

they're unwinding it and the stock's done much

19:10

better. But the point here is

19:12

that bad acquisitions

19:14

can really take down a great

19:17

business. Also, failure

19:19

to keep up with changing consumer

19:21

preferences. So one of

19:24

those lists is Paramount Global. They

19:26

abandoned traditional television in

19:30

favor of streaming services and it kind

19:32

of sank them. I'm

19:35

sorry, viewers, you know,

19:38

they weren't ahead of the streaming change. And

19:40

so they didn't pivot fast enough.

19:42

And they were kind of late to the

19:44

game in the streaming business and they didn't

19:46

adjust to those changes. Walgreens

19:48

Boots Alliance, they're

19:50

big. The big lesson there, Number

19:53

one is debt. They have way too much debt

19:55

on their balance sheet. And So they're kind of.

19:57

they weren't able to reinvest in their business. They

20:00

were. More. Focused on paying

20:02

interest in In and Boy Becomes the.

20:05

And they didn't have it to online

20:07

services for prescriptions and other products to

20:09

that's a really think them. Third,

20:12

his failure of risk management. City Group

20:14

is on this list and they are

20:16

historically one of the worst run. Banks

20:19

out there. And. So management is

20:21

always a huge risk and they

20:23

can run you a and then

20:25

there's external factors. Sometimes they are

20:28

out of their control. For example,

20:30

there's an oil service name on

20:32

this list on present. Ah,

20:34

It's a good business, but they were

20:36

just in an industry that was too

20:38

challenging as a eyes is ten years

20:41

ago or prices were very hot. hi

20:43

point he fourteen and then they fell.

20:46

Out and Twenty Fourteen Twenty sixteen.

20:48

And that took a heavy toll

20:50

on revenue unprofitability. So sometimes. These.

20:52

Are either control is. Up

20:55

to what happens at in the

20:57

broader sector. And. Then the

20:59

last one is a lack of

21:01

development of new products of biogen.

21:04

Idec is a good example of

21:06

this. They weren't able to diversify

21:08

away from their multiple sclerosis drugs

21:11

and a lot of the. Drug.

21:13

Development they've they've been working on has

21:15

stalled out. Guy. And

21:18

so these are some great

21:20

lessons to why companies tend

21:22

to. Fail. And.

21:25

To look ahead, make sure that when

21:27

you're purchasing a new company, That.

21:29

You have these. Potential.

21:32

risks in mind that are you to

21:34

have they made a recent acquisition that

21:37

could be overvalued or or not execute

21:39

properly what's the man's look like our

21:41

days are ahead of the trends in

21:43

their particular industry etc and that is

21:45

part of the analysis when you are

21:48

buying any individual companies such as the

21:50

shiny name the name that ah is

21:52

done well over the past three six

21:54

months or whatever it's really about the

21:56

quality of the business hims rejected that

21:59

this it's not that it's good today

22:01

but that it'll be coming

22:06

soon. Let's say you've been

22:08

thinking about learning a

22:19

new language. Okay. Why?

22:22

I mean, how would it come in handy? And

22:25

where would you want to use it? Could

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it be that you have an upcoming international trip? Or

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22:33

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24:16

The phone lines are open, 88899 chart.

24:20

Hello, I had a question about

24:23

the resources regarding banks when you're

24:25

looking for stocks. So currently I

24:27

have an account with Schwab and

24:30

they offer pretty good resources. I can

24:32

put the name of the ticker symbol

24:35

or the company. And

24:37

they'll provide me with data both

24:39

from their perspective, from Morningstar's perspective,

24:41

CFRA's perspective. And I get to

24:44

see the reports and sort of

24:46

understand the companies before

24:48

purchasing. But then I

24:51

started thinking, what about some of

24:53

these other companies? I opened up

24:55

another investment account, a much smaller

24:57

one, from JP Morgan. And I

24:59

started looking at their research.

25:02

And I was just wondering, are

25:04

there any investment accounts with different

25:07

banks that you would recommend, maybe

25:09

Fidelity or Citibank, just something

25:11

that may offer good resources? I

25:14

do like what they offer at

25:16

Schwab. I'm not too content with

25:19

the information that's provided with JP

25:21

Morgan. But if you have some

25:23

recommendations on possibly using other

25:26

banks resources, I would

25:28

greatly appreciate it. Thank you. And I hope Steve

25:31

does well. Well,

25:35

you're looking at different

25:37

brokers. I think that's what you're speaking

25:40

about. Not necessarily banks. And banks, you

25:42

can open investment accounts through banks. But

25:44

the best resources, as you're talking about,

25:46

which are really investment

25:49

tools, right? Investment data,

25:52

things that we're showing on our YouTube channel

25:55

when we're analyzing stocks. And so we

25:58

use Schwab, but we purchased a lot of

26:00

things. things like back sets and white charts

26:02

and many others that give us

26:04

a lot more data that you're ever going

26:06

to get free from a broker

26:10

like Schwab or Fidelity. Now

26:13

Schwab bought CD Ameritrade recently. They do

26:15

have the Think or Swim platform. I

26:17

would recommend opting for that. That's a

26:20

great tool as well for research. Fidelity

26:23

has some good research, but I

26:25

think Schwab and Fidelity are the

26:27

top two. But it's really

26:30

how you use it, what

26:32

you feel comfortable using

26:34

and the UI. That's

26:36

why Think or Swim, a lot of people like Think or Swim just

26:39

from a research and trading platform. So I think those are

26:41

the two best ones. If you go with a big

26:43

bank like JP Morgan, you're probably not

26:45

going to get much. It's going to

26:47

likely be Schwab or Fidelity. Thanks

26:50

for the call. Now let's

26:53

touch a bit on AI and

26:59

AI's energy demands.

27:04

A simple chat GPT request

27:07

used nearly 10 times more electricity

27:09

than a regular Google search. That's

27:11

according to the International Energy Agency.

27:15

And Chip Designer Arm

27:17

warns that unless energy savings are

27:19

found, AI data centers could consume

27:21

up to 25% of

27:23

America's power by 2030. 2030, that's only

27:26

six years from now, compared

27:28

to just 4% today. And

27:32

so the question is, how

27:35

do you deal

27:37

with that? Now first is, obviously we know there's going to

27:39

be a lot more energy demand. We're

27:41

already investing for our clients to take

27:44

advantage of that. That's definitely a trend

27:46

you need to be thinking about. Allocating

27:48

towards is that extra demand that AI

27:50

is going to put on our energy

27:52

grid. But AI

27:54

can also be used as a tool to

27:56

find energy savings as well. And

27:59

real estate is the place that

28:02

has the most room for improvement. Real

28:06

estate is a heavy and wasteful user of

28:08

energy. According to the IEA,

28:10

the operations of residential and commercial buildings

28:12

account for 30% of

28:14

global energy use and about a third of that

28:16

is squandered, meaning air conditionings that

28:19

are ran when they don't need to

28:21

be heaters, that it

28:23

ran when they don't need to be

28:25

lights being on, when nobody's in the

28:27

room, etc. These

28:31

things can be potentially solved by

28:33

AI and

28:35

there are even more wastefulness

28:41

than pre-pandemic because so

28:43

many people are not going to the

28:45

office and people don't

28:48

have every day the same pattern

28:50

of behavior, meaning

28:52

they don't all go into the office at

28:54

8am anymore and leave at

28:56

5pm. A lot

28:59

of hybrid work environments. Sometimes you come

29:01

in maybe Tuesday and Thursday, other weeks

29:03

might be Monday and Wednesday, all

29:06

depends. And so

29:08

there are companies out there that are

29:12

looking for ways of deploying

29:15

tools that are helping buildings

29:17

become more energy efficient. And

29:21

efficiency is underrated. In

29:24

fact, over

29:27

the past decade,

29:31

this is from the Saudi Aramco CEO,

29:33

he says, pointed out that efficiencies reduce

29:35

global energy demand by 90 million

29:38

barrels of oil equivalent a day over the

29:40

past 15 years. 90 million

29:42

barrels. Now

29:45

the contributions from wind and solar energy

29:47

itself to the grid of clean

29:50

energy has

29:52

substituted just 15 million barrels

29:54

a day over that same time period. So

29:57

what he's saying is, hey, talk

30:00

about the investment in green energy

30:03

and just the energy infrastructure in

30:05

general, but the

30:07

lowest hanging fruit is actually just

30:10

efficiency. And

30:12

AI can eventually help with that, learning

30:14

the patterns of people to make sure that

30:18

air conditioners and heaters are turned off and on

30:20

at the right time, that

30:22

lights are turned off and on at the right time. And

30:27

all of this can make the

30:30

world more efficient. And there

30:32

are companies that are actually

30:34

helping with this, companies like

30:36

Siemens, ABB, Schneider Electric, etc.

30:39

So there's a lot out there to think

30:41

about. And that's why I said there's two sides

30:43

of every coin, supply and demand. And

30:45

this is the same thing, not just

30:48

about creating more supply,

30:52

but also reducing the demand.

30:55

And that's what, and both can

30:57

be tools that will help

31:00

solve our energy crisis worldwide.

31:05

I hope you will tell your friends about

31:07

our new InvestTalk audio podcast

31:09

is also expanding into

31:11

video form on our YouTube channel. It seems that

31:13

every day now we see finance and investment

31:15

questions in the comment section over

31:18

there on the YouTube channel. So let's get to

31:20

a couple now. Finite Anarchy says,

31:22

do you think energy stocks are going

31:24

to continue ticking higher with inflation and

31:26

the combination of spring and summer months

31:28

entering the traditional time period of high

31:30

gas prices? I

31:33

don't think that it's going to be

31:35

something that is seasonal. The

31:41

global energy flows are

31:45

going to be more dynamic than that these

31:47

days. And I

31:49

do think energy prices will continue

31:51

to tick higher and put pressure

31:53

on inflation, mainly because

31:55

of lack of real

31:58

long-term investment. in

32:00

big projects for

32:03

oil production. Most

32:05

of the incremental demand is, or incremental supply,

32:07

excuse me, is coming from the shale regions.

32:10

And that takes continued

32:12

investment in those

32:15

wells, in

32:18

putting more holes in the ground, because

32:21

the shelf life of each well is

32:23

a lot shorter in the

32:25

shale regions than your traditional

32:28

oil plays. And so you also

32:30

have the geopolitical problems. And so

32:33

I do think energy stocks will

32:35

continue to, had higher energy prices will continue to

32:37

head higher. They'll still be volatile. It doesn't mean

32:39

they can't pull back. You know, oil's around 90

32:42

now. Can it pull back back to 75? Absolutely.

32:45

But, you know, the

32:47

general trends across the board are

32:49

for a lot of demand for energy, both

32:52

because of AI, because of

32:54

reshoring and manufacturing, but

32:56

also the emerging markets. They

32:59

are still growing their demand

33:01

for cars and

33:03

in the modern comforts that we all

33:06

enjoy in the first world.

33:09

And so those things are not

33:11

going to change. So we're still bullish on

33:13

energy prices. Let's

33:15

go to answer another Invest Talk YouTube channel

33:17

question. Kevin White says, one of the last

33:19

persistent components of inflation today is wage inflation.

33:22

Do you think the global energy prices could

33:25

reinforce that persistence? If

33:27

so, wouldn't it create an inevitable scenario of

33:30

higher unemployment? Not necessarily.

33:32

Just because energy prices go up doesn't

33:35

mean that companies

33:38

are going to lay off workers. Companies

33:40

usually lay off workers for a couple

33:43

of reasons. One

33:45

is shrinking profits.

33:49

Certainly higher energy prices can do

33:51

that. But finding

33:53

efficiencies is usually a better

33:55

way to deal with that

33:59

in operation. and you typically need

34:01

people for that. But

34:03

the main reason that most companies lay

34:06

off workers is when they get into

34:08

deeper financial problems. Nobody wants to

34:10

lay off workers. And

34:12

it's really about, can they finance

34:15

themselves? Can they get lending

34:17

from banks? Can they issue bonds,

34:19

et cetera? And if they can't,

34:22

that's when they truly lay off in

34:24

large numbers. And

34:26

so that I don't

34:28

see happening because the credit markets are pretty

34:31

solid. Inflation generally is,

34:34

frankly, a good thing for corporations. As long

34:36

as it's moderate, three to 5% range, we

34:39

don't get back up to 78% where the

34:42

Fed has to really hammer on liquidity, then

34:44

I don't see inevitable

34:46

that higher oil prices

34:48

or energy prices are

34:50

going to create higher unemployment.

34:52

You're seeing that as of

34:55

late. Oil prices

34:58

are on the rise, but the jobs market

35:00

is hanging in there. In 2022, oil

35:02

prices were headed higher and

35:07

unemployment continued to trend lower. So

35:11

they're not really that correlated and I wouldn't take

35:13

it as such. Now let's keep things

35:15

moving and pivot back to the Best Talk voice bank for this question

35:17

that came in earlier on 8-8-99 chart. Hey,

35:20

Luke, and then Best Talk. I'm

35:23

calling about index funds.

35:26

I'm trying to set up a passive strategy.

35:29

I know nothing is set and forget it, but the

35:32

most set it and forget it, I can possibly

35:34

do right now with the

35:36

index fund strategy, kind of,

35:38

you know, 25, 30 years, dump

35:41

X amount and tear into it and not even

35:44

have to worry about it. And I'm looking at

35:46

VTI, VTV, and VOO, all

35:50

VANDA index funds. I'm

35:53

all pretty low fence ratios, pretty

35:56

consistent growth over the last, you know, 30,

35:58

40 years. and

36:00

want to get your thoughts of

36:02

which one you think would

36:04

be the most beneficial

36:06

for that time frame of consistency

36:09

of growth with

36:11

more limited downside. Looking

36:13

forward to hearing your thoughts and I love what

36:15

you do. Thanks so much. No

36:18

problem. Thanks for the call. Now looking at

36:20

three very popular index funds,

36:22

you have VTI and VOO. VTI is

36:24

the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and

36:27

VOO is the S&P 500

36:30

Index and as you would imagine the VTI is

36:32

a bit more broad-based. I've got the exact number

36:35

but I think it's up around 2,000, 2,500

36:37

different names. So much more broad based

36:41

and diversified and so if

36:44

I'm picking that VOO and

36:46

VTI, I'm picking VTI. But

36:48

you also mentioned VTV which is the

36:50

Vanguard Value ETF and

36:53

that one I think has a

36:56

much better makeup.

36:59

Obviously we are value investors and this is

37:01

more of a large cap value ETF versus

37:03

the other two are more large cap growth

37:05

ETFs. They lean on the growth side because

37:07

they're heavily weighted, their market cap weighted towards

37:12

those mega cap names that in

37:15

some instances are pretty overvalued. So I

37:18

would go with the VTV over those three.

37:21

Now is VTV perfect? No it is not.

37:23

It's still only 2.5% in basic materials.

37:25

It's still only 7% in energy. I

37:29

think those are drastically too low in

37:31

allocation. So I would probably augment it

37:34

with something that has a little more

37:36

hard asset exposure, basic materials,

37:38

energy, industrials at 13% for this one

37:40

that's good. I would probably want to

37:42

up that a bit. So

37:45

it's an improvement over VTI and VOO but

37:47

it is not perfect. But of

37:49

the three, that's the best one. Now

37:52

let's talk a little bit about Live Nation.

37:55

Live Nation and this is a

37:57

report that that

38:00

the Justice Department is preparing to

38:02

sue Live Nation next month in

38:04

an antitrust challenge. And I think

38:07

this is by far

38:09

the one that has

38:11

the most potential to actually go

38:13

through. And it's alleging

38:15

the nation's biggest concert promoter leverages

38:17

dominance in a way that undermines competition

38:19

for ticketing live events.

38:23

And the government opted to not

38:25

block the Live Nation ticket master

38:27

merger in 2010. And

38:29

it looks like that was a huge

38:31

mistake. Now, this has gained momentum since

38:33

November of 2022 during

38:36

the Taylor Swift errors tour

38:38

when Ticketmaster crashed

38:40

during fan pre-sales, ticket prices

38:42

went crazy. And really,

38:45

they just charge exorbitant fees.

38:47

And they also would come out that

38:49

what they do is they had these

38:53

third party vendors that they

38:55

bring into these venues. And

38:58

they negotiate separately with the third party. And

39:02

they tell the venue

39:04

that they have these

39:07

vendors. And

39:09

you use these vendors. And it makes

39:12

it look like the fees

39:14

that they're charging is

39:17

just the only way they're making money. Well,

39:19

in reality, they actually get kickbacks from these

39:21

vendors. And so they're using their monopoly power

39:23

to get more profits out of each event. They

39:26

prevent companies from going

39:28

in there and using, or

39:31

live acts from using other ticket

39:33

vendors that aren't

39:35

Ticketmaster. And if they do,

39:37

then the venue may not

39:39

get the next big large act

39:41

that Ticketmaster maybe

39:44

has control of. And so it

39:46

now holds more than Ticketmaster holds 80%

39:49

market share of primary ticket sales in

39:51

the biggest venues in the US. And

39:53

they have exclusive ticketing contracts with many

39:55

of the big stadiums, arenas, where these

39:58

high profile acts perform. Where You

40:00

know, they have to reform there because they're bringing in

40:02

20, 30, 40,

40:05

50,000 people and there's only so many venues that can

40:07

handle that many people. And so there's

40:10

a law student. It may unravel a

40:13

settlement agreement that live nation reach with

40:15

the department in 2010. So I

40:17

think this is a very, very

40:19

strong possibility of being broken up.

40:22

And frankly, I think it's a good thing because

40:25

they're definitely using that monopoly

40:27

power. Well,

40:31

this is Investalk. I'm Justin Klein. We have one goal

40:33

each and every weekday and that's to help you achieve

40:35

your own version of financial freedom. And our work continues

40:37

after this final break. So if you're going to call,

40:39

you want to do that right now. 88899. Everybody

41:01

wants a secure financial

41:03

future, but getting there

41:05

takes strategy, discipline and

41:07

the right information. That

41:10

means you'll have finance and

41:12

investment questions. So don't

41:14

forget to call Investalk. 88899

41:16

chart. Hi,

41:19

Stephen, Justin. Recently, Justin was talking

41:21

about the put call ratio, giving

41:24

us an idea of investor sentiment.

41:27

I'm wondering how does that really

41:29

give us an idea of what

41:31

investor community is thinking really

41:34

because when people are buying a

41:37

lot of puts and the

41:39

put call ratio is high, aren't

41:41

there an equal number of people also

41:43

selling those puts? So,

41:46

you know, for every one person that is

41:48

buying the put and thinking the stock market

41:50

is going lower, there's another person selling it.

41:53

So those people are bullish on the

41:55

stock market as a whole. I

41:57

understand the idea, but for every person who is selling it, it's not a good

41:59

idea. person buying those puts through someone selling

42:01

them in the opposite way.

42:04

Maybe you can talk a little bit about that

42:06

on the show. I appreciate it. Thank

42:09

you. All right. Great question. But

42:12

you're thinking about this ratio a bit wrong.

42:14

You're right that for every person that buys

42:16

a put, someone has to sell it. But

42:18

this is a ratio of puts to calls,

42:21

put to call ratios. So there's

42:24

the, what's called open

42:26

interest in puts and calls.

42:29

And so when a certain

42:31

number of puts or more

42:33

puts are being bought than calls, then

42:36

remember, these can be created out of

42:38

thin air. It's just based on supply and demand. More people

42:40

want to put in bid orders and enough people want to

42:42

sell. And that creates an

42:44

open interest in the number of calls and puts

42:46

that are executed. And so when

42:48

the put call ratio goes up dramatically, it means

42:51

a lot of people are buying puts for

42:53

protection and not a lot of people are

42:56

buying calls for upside potential

42:58

gain. So that's what the ratio is.

43:00

Yes, there's always an equal number of

43:03

people that are buying puts and calls at any given

43:05

time because that's how the

43:07

interest work. But

43:09

it's a put call ratio.

43:12

Put call ratio. Okay. So

43:14

hopefully it gives you a little clarity. Now, I don't

43:16

think the put call ratio is the best way to

43:18

go, best sentiment indicator.

43:20

I think the AAII investor

43:23

sentiment survey is a bit

43:25

better. It is looking

43:28

a bit hefty, I will say, as of

43:30

late. So that is a

43:32

bit of a worry. But once again, it is not the

43:34

end all be all. It can always remain

43:37

over, investors can remain

43:40

over allocated for. It's been on a

43:42

decline for the last year. I

43:45

would like to know what sort of

43:47

feeling on it, looking forward and see

43:50

that cash flow through the project. And

43:52

my question is how do you see

43:54

this going forward? Do you see like

43:56

the green of the tunnel or this

43:58

company is just? and that's

44:00

the end of the grand down. Thank you. All

44:03

right. This is WTI,

44:06

which is W&T Offshore

44:08

Inc. And this

44:10

is in a terrible downtrend. It's

44:12

relative strength is only 10. It's supposed

44:15

to lose money this year and next year, lost money

44:17

last year as well. Revenues were down 30% last quarter

44:19

year over year. Earnings were down 160% last quarter year

44:21

over year. It

44:25

does pay a dividend, but that dividend is probably going

44:27

away. It has a lot of debt on its balance

44:29

sheet. And what

44:31

it does, it's an EMP company, but

44:33

primarily in the Gulf of Mexico offshore. And

44:37

it's pretty clear that based on

44:39

the current market prices of

44:42

oil, they're not very

44:44

profitable. And it's very

44:46

expensive to shut down these oil rigs

44:48

that are out there in the middle

44:50

of the ocean. And so

44:53

they typically pump no matter what. And

44:55

that can be good when oil prices really spiked. But

44:58

when oil prices are kind of middling and

45:00

they're not really that profitable, they

45:02

don't really have a lot of reason to

45:04

shut it down because they're hoping for a

45:07

potential turnaround in prices. Overall,

45:10

I just don't see the value here. Too

45:12

much debt. I rather own

45:14

a company that's a lot more diversified,

45:16

has a much better business. Don't

45:18

be trying to pick the bottom here

45:20

because this looks like a name that's

45:22

more likely to go bankrupt than double

45:24

from here. So I would absolutely pass

45:26

on WNT offshore. Well,

45:29

that does it. I'm Justin Clients, police in another Invest Talk

45:31

program. We thank you for listening. We encourage you to tell

45:34

your friends and family about our free podcast downloads, which

45:36

you can find anytime at iTunes, Spotify,

45:39

or Google Play. And be

45:41

sure to tell your friends that the Invest Talk

45:43

podcast is now available in video form on

45:46

our YouTube channel, Searching Best Talk with

45:48

two T's. And yes,

45:50

we had a Market Madness contest winner. We

45:52

sent email notifications out, and we'll be sending

45:54

out a check later this week. Independent

45:57

Thinking shared success. It's the best talk. Good

45:59

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46:03

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46:42

KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461. Steve

46:48

Peasley is president and Justin Kline

46:50

is chief executive officer of Kline,

46:52

Pavlis and Peasley Financial. Thank

46:54

you for listening and your comments and questions are

46:57

welcome on our 24-hour listener line

46:59

at 888-99 chart. Today

47:15

we unpack the 15 companies that have

47:17

destroyed the most value over the last decade

47:19

and if Lulu Lemon is a good buy

47:21

after this most recent drop. Lulu

47:25

Lemon is down 33% from its recent high. Is

47:28

it a buy yet? Let's find out. Now

47:32

which Vanguard index fund is the right

47:34

buy long term? Destroy the most

47:36

value over the last decade and if Lulu

47:38

Lemon is a good buy after this most

47:41

recent drop. Lulu

47:44

Lemon is down 33% from its recent high. Is

47:47

it a buy yet? Let's find out. Now

47:51

which Vanguard index fund is the right

47:53

buy long term?