0:05

At a time when investors

0:08

are confronted with market volatility

0:10

and your of challenges field

0:12

by the uncertainty of inflation,

0:14

unsettled geopolitical tensions, And

0:17

economic pressures just incline

0:19

and Steve puzzling stand.

0:21

Ready to take your finance

0:23

an investment questions and share

0:25

their unbiased answers. This is

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Invest Dog. Independent thinking, shared

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success. Invest Talk is made

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possible by Kp Financial, a

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registered investment adviser from serving

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clients throughout the United States.

0:40

The cleary for your

0:43

path forward starts Now

0:45

here is Tpp Chief

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Executive Officer Financial Advisor

0:49

Justin Climb. Good

0:52

afternoon fellow investors in a welcome

0:54

back welcome back to Invest talk.

0:56

This is our Thursday may second

0:58

want to eat twenty four addition.

1:01

Happy. Post fed day and

1:03

a lot is happening in

1:05

today's markets. You have Apple

1:07

earnings after hours and. So

1:10

much news is are probably

1:13

crossing your. Your. Screens every

1:15

single minute, every single our

1:17

every single day. And there's

1:19

a lot to unpack. And

1:21

that's what we're here to

1:23

help you with this to

1:25

navigate these unusual times, these

1:28

era of. Higher. Inflation.

1:30

Higher. Market Volatility: Higher interest

1:33

rate Volatility. And

1:36

fiscal dominance. a period of. Have.

1:38

You government spending. And

1:41

ultimately that manifests in. Our.

1:44

Donald Gdp growth higher earnings.

1:49

But. Also a more.

1:52

In. Many ways confusing longer

1:55

term perspective or longer

1:57

term projection. For.

2:00

The overall account. For

2:02

how do you balance co the longer term

2:04

issues. That continue kind of

2:06

builds with shorter term. Trends.

2:09

And that's where to. Help you

2:11

do Time frame is very important. So.

2:14

Many people ignore that. They think.

2:16

Hey this is. A good

2:18

company for example, in need a scene

2:20

that lady with. Companies. Like

2:22

Starbucks are being down big and

2:25

Nike and your they have their

2:27

issues near term in. By.

2:29

The question is, well, those iron out

2:31

and eventually turn around and most likely

2:33

they do so. from a therapy amp

2:36

fan perspective, the may not be great

2:38

by today for the next three six

2:40

months, but. You.

2:42

Could argue their goodbyes and x three six

2:44

years. And you have to

2:46

square those two things yet to be willing

2:48

to. Handle

2:51

the volatility of anything that your by.

2:56

Both. Volatility expected over the near term and

2:58

the long term. And

3:01

so. That. Is one.

3:06

One. Way to frame every invest

3:08

in their most ways to frame

3:10

every investment. And

3:12

you have to think about that. The

3:15

risk versus reward. The pros

3:17

and cons of every asset class.

3:20

Every company. Everything that you can

3:22

buy out there in the market. There's.

3:24

Two sides to every coin is arguments

3:26

both ways, but a savvy investor. Knows.

3:30

How to weigh? The. Pros

3:32

and cons for their own particular

3:34

situation and their own game. And

3:37

I swear to help you do to be com

3:39

a savvy investor. And

3:43

we do that by answering your finance invest in

3:45

questions. So. I encourage you to reach out.

3:47

And leave your message if you're missing

3:50

after hours and if you're listening the

3:52

or live stream. Or.

3:55

Name's whole twenty in Silicon Valley area. You can

3:57

call right now and talk to us. Like heard

3:59

that. Eighty Eight, Ninety Nine Chart. There

4:02

were to talk about the mark performance

4:04

for today and run down some show

4:06

topics. Butts as usual organ here first

4:08

call a question now. I'm

4:11

talking about of the Shred

4:13

Metics group. Secretary.

4:15

M P S you to

4:17

provide though. I appreciate

4:19

it up a little less. Who.

4:23

Trains Metics group of four billion

4:25

dollar market cap. It just looks

4:27

like recently had earnings yeah yesterday

4:29

and it was a pretty vague

4:32

a close. The day on would

4:34

that be the Thursday so that

4:36

would be on Tuesday because run

4:38

ninety four, then yesterday, close that

4:40

one seventeen and today closed even

4:43

higher it one twenty Four and

4:45

change. Know David in

4:47

here, but what they do

4:49

is develop portable warm blooded

4:51

perfusion systems that allow for

4:54

living organ transplants. Interesting. So.

4:57

Medical Products company in their

4:59

business. Is doing pretty

5:01

well. Revenues last quarter. Rob.

5:03

A hundred and thirty three percent earnings are

5:06

five hundred percent. And if this is one

5:08

of his name's been a money loser for

5:10

many, many years and now for the first

5:12

time this year. Expectation is

5:14

for. Profit. Eighty

5:17

one cents per share expected this

5:19

year, a dollar twenty two next

5:21

year. Problem. Is as I

5:23

said, that's a hundred and twenty four dollars thought.

5:25

So you're paying. A hundred

5:27

times. For.

5:29

Looking earnings. So.

5:32

That means. There. Has to be expensive.

5:34

amount of growth. Going.

5:36

Forward. Now. The

5:38

Pot: the part of years that. Earnings

5:40

are positive. The. You're heading in the right

5:42

direction. Now. Cash flow remains

5:45

negative, trailing for months. And.

5:48

Actually, that in better. So I don't like

5:50

that. so I want to. Why? I want

5:52

to know what is driving this these earnings

5:54

projects such as growth, but the fact that

5:57

they're operating margins remain negative. I don't like

5:59

that. There's outstanding. Like

6:01

most biotechs, Pay.

6:03

For going up for a while and

6:05

it's continued to go higher. So a

6:07

lot of what's happening here is. Pricing.

6:10

In. A. Very rosy future.

6:13

Men: Either, I don't like to. My.

6:17

Pay for time five times

6:19

a marker multiple. For. Something

6:21

that. You. Know

6:23

probably has good applications obviously.

6:26

Gaining. Market share here with the with the revenue

6:29

growth. But. You have to real

6:31

the if they're really continued knock that the

6:33

part for many many years to come from

6:35

for this valuation to. Make

6:39

sense. So.

6:42

It. Off your out looking to add a growth

6:44

name? this would. Be.

6:46

A way to do that. I just. Don't.

6:49

Feel confident that will actually be

6:51

able to to grow into this

6:53

valuation. For. Near term the trends are

6:55

positive. The chart. Likely. Will will probably

6:57

had higher in the near term. Other one's gonna

6:59

disown. Top of the Show. My.

7:02

Be strong near term, but. Longer.

7:04

Term this valuation just doesn't make a whole

7:06

lot of sense. Thanks.

7:09

For the call. Eighty Nine

7:11

Yanks are chart in a nice you

7:13

forties. Seventy is I get to ask

7:16

your question. On today's show we're having

7:18

their short break on the other side.

7:20

On the other side is we'll talk

7:22

about the plane topic for today as

7:24

well as run down the market activity

7:27

for March. Second Segment March May Second:

7:29

Twenty Twenty Four that we have even

7:31

call anytime. Leave your question the ah

7:33

fuck voice bank isn't the or livestream

7:35

aura name for twenty radio on so

7:38

com ela your ego right now and

7:40

Eighty Nine. When

7:46

listener questions are played on

7:48

the Invest Talk Podcast, how

7:50

do you guys determine a

7:52

valid stock? The color voices

7:54

are amplified many thousands of

7:56

times. Sunny Day Opinion on T

7:58

P. Martin and. The A He:

8:00

how do you see this Looking for

8:03

work and twenty five years old and

8:05

have a question about retirement funds and

8:07

the unbiased answers from Justin flying? That's

8:10

what's training. So cheap because there's a

8:12

lot of regulatory risk and Steve easily.

8:14

I kind of like it here. If

8:17

I was gonna by Tyson Foods, this

8:19

was worried by benefit the entire and

8:21

best talk community. Thank you for Wow

8:23

you guys do. That's why Twenty Four

8:26

Seven, Rain or Shine. No matter how

8:28

simple or how complex your. Questions

8:30

make a difference. Symbol be

8:32

crazy, what's your outlook and

8:35

invest? Talk is made better

8:37

by the power of you.

8:39

so don't forget to crawl.

8:41

Eight, Eight Eight Ninety Nine

8:43

Chart. Every

8:50

investor is working to build

8:53

a skewer financial future. The

8:55

more you learn about how

8:57

the market works, the better

9:00

your chances for success. Invest

9:02

Dog Eight Eight Eight Ninety

9:04

Nine Charge. Now

9:12

rely ground to cover. Next forty

9:14

five minutes and here are some

9:16

planned topics. Our main focus point

9:18

is. About the evolution

9:21

of the fund industry.

9:23

Mutual. Funds have been around for

9:25

many decades, but. Things. Have

9:28

evolved the we're gonna talk about

9:30

the good and bad of that

9:32

evolution since the early eighties. We.

9:35

Also some other stories to dig

9:38

into as well what is regards

9:40

to monetary policy? And the

9:42

limits of monetary policy. So many people

9:44

focus on what's the Fed going to

9:46

do? Where they're going to raise rates

9:48

are lower rates and. What? Impact

9:51

that will have in the broader economy. And

9:53

the reality is. It's

9:55

policy. impacts some

9:57

industries dramatically and others

10:00

very little. And

10:03

so there are limits to what the Fed

10:05

can do, especially in a time with so

10:07

much debt that

10:09

we have at the sovereign level. So we're going

10:12

to discuss that and the

10:14

way to think about monetary

10:16

policy and its broader

10:18

impact on the economy. Also,

10:22

working from home. And there are a

10:24

lot of studies early on in the

10:26

pandemic that working from home boosted efficiency.

10:28

Well, that narrative is

10:31

starting to reverse. So we're going to look at

10:33

that. And then lastly,

10:35

will the U.S. ban imports of

10:37

Russian uranium? Potentially,

10:40

we're going to look at that story as

10:42

well. We also have some

10:44

voice-ban questions. One is in

10:47

regards to Skyworks, and the other

10:49

is selling a loss and avoiding

10:52

taxes. And we also have some questions

10:55

that came in via the comment section over

10:57

on our YouTube channel. And of course, we

11:00

welcome your finance and investment

11:02

questions live. Just give us

11:04

a call at 888-999-chart. We

11:07

love those live calls and interacting with

11:09

you. Now, let's take a look at

11:12

the market today. We had certainly a

11:14

down day yesterday,

11:16

or at least

11:19

it was a modestly down day. And we closed into lows

11:21

yesterday. And that was actually generally

11:23

a negative sign for the

11:26

following day. But markets

11:28

actually bounced back nicely. Large

11:30

caps are up about 1 percent. Small caps actually did the

11:32

best up 1.42 percent on the day. And

11:38

I think that was because

11:40

rates dropped. Rates actually fell. You

11:43

saw short-term rates rise yesterday, but

11:45

it fell back today. So small

11:48

caps certainly liked that. Like

11:50

I said, top of the show, we had Apple after

11:52

hours. They look up about 6 or 7 percent After

11:55

that earnings announcement. Bernie

12:01

Big Down did down starts today.

12:04

Not. Really new large ones

12:07

know huge movers. Frankly,

12:09

but. There. Was a h

12:11

thing day in markets and tomorrow

12:14

is V or the job number

12:16

for the month of April and.

12:19

I. Think. We. Might miss here.

12:22

On. The jobs number and frankly that's what

12:24

the Fed is is looking for. It's pretty

12:26

clear to cut rates is. Yes,

12:29

Inflation is all the way to their

12:31

target by it is in the ballpark

12:33

and I think that gives them some

12:35

level of comfort. To. Be ready

12:37

to react to the other side

12:39

of their duel mandate, which is.

12:42

Maximum. Employment And if

12:44

the employment situation deteriorates that

12:46

way, I think Spark A

12:48

or Federica. Over the next

12:50

couple meeting said i think I'll

12:52

watch for that is for a

12:55

clear break in the jobs market.

12:57

The Jolts data Job Openings data

12:59

on Wednesday that did come in

13:01

a bit lower than expected so

13:03

that typically can be a harbinger

13:05

for of that the actual Jobs

13:07

announcement on on Friday. Ah, but

13:09

we shall see. Cel will be

13:11

watching. That. Tomorrow. All.

13:14

right? Let's. Go ahead and play

13:16

another caller question from aided Eight ninety Nine

13:18

chart. Or. Just someone

13:20

to move to since auto some

13:23

davis are more loans or have

13:25

a question about Skyway solution. More

13:27

like some bad numbers for the

13:29

last quarter or nothing that outlook

13:32

was not to go as Fireball.

13:35

Have club.com quite a bit.

13:37

An omen wasilla in the

13:39

company I was thinking of

13:41

those tigers contested. By.

13:43

Opportunity cause I don't really care

13:45

much about them short term noise

13:47

song or he seems og the

13:50

company's go about. Maybe you guys

13:52

crunched the numbers on. Know if

13:54

this is a by at this

13:56

point or. Maybe. Oh shit

13:58

hold that and other that. Them. About

14:01

to double down on us a speaker.

14:03

Thank you so much for your your

14:05

was used as to gather. Are

14:08

luckier Skyward Solutions. And yeah they had

14:10

a rough earnings report. This is one

14:12

of Us navy on for clients. it

14:14

at one of the few ones that

14:17

had a poor earnings number. but we

14:19

agree with you that I've ever very

14:21

strong business long term near term. There's

14:23

some weakness in the handset market that

14:25

it's it's been driving ah their their

14:27

business or too slow and earnings are

14:30

expected this year to be five dollars

14:32

and forty eight cents for bounce back

14:34

next year to six thousand and eighteen

14:36

cents as better manage our stocks. About

14:38

fifteen times for looking earnings

14:41

but they have a very

14:43

very good business are value

14:45

is closer to one hundred

14:48

and whereas ago or disappear.

14:51

Our. Values cause of the hundred twenty

14:53

five dollars per share and outset

14:55

of Skyn Ninety Cells are we

14:57

like Sky Works and we do

15:00

would use. This is our as

15:02

opportunity to build up the position

15:04

over time because very little debt

15:06

on it's balance sheets and longer

15:08

term their solutions sky were Susan's

15:10

I will continue to be. In

15:13

high demand says if if if the

15:15

headset market which we expected to. Only.

15:18

Longterm so ah yes, we

15:20

like skywards down here. There.

15:22

Were heading into a short break

15:24

and we always enjoy your voice

15:26

been caused By most importantly we

15:28

love your life calls during the

15:31

Podcast at Eighty Nine in Nature.

15:40

got a question for just in or

15:42

look you're the best person to ask

15:45

if i wanted to pick available apple

15:47

what'd you think about their earnings call

15:49

elizabeth have to add to my position

15:51

call invest dot eight eight eight ninety

15:53

nine cent Let's

16:04

make a quick look at your financial

16:06

to-do list. At the

16:08

top, make that phone call to

16:10

the Investalk Anytime Listener line. 888-99,

16:13

chart. Now,

16:19

our main focus point is

16:21

about the evolution of the

16:23

fund industry over the past

16:25

40 years or so. And

16:29

over the last 40 years, the number

16:31

of funds available is up 1,000%, 10-fold.

16:37

And costs are lower, disclosures are

16:39

better, and there's just

16:41

a lot more choices, including passive

16:43

funds, which we'll talk about

16:45

the pros and cons of that. But the

16:48

quality of outcomes clearly for investors

16:50

are better. 40

16:53

years ago, about 12% of households

16:55

owned mutual funds, and

16:59

most of that was in money

17:01

market funds. Only $140 billion were

17:03

in other asset classes, which

17:06

frankly isn't a lot. And

17:11

back then, most people who bought mutual funds were

17:13

working with some sort of a broker. Somebody

17:18

immediately at their bank, and they were

17:20

typically selling them commission-based funds, A-share funds,

17:22

C-share funds, and

17:25

that made up the largest chunk of the universe. There

17:30

were only 900 funds available at that time,

17:34

and mostly just government bond funds,

17:37

large cap stock funds, and

17:39

hybrid funds. And

17:43

for equity funds, the asset-weighted

17:46

expense ratio was 80 basis

17:48

points for no-load funds, and many

17:50

more that were

17:53

significantly higher in fees because they had front-end

17:56

and back-end loads, which for

17:58

everyone out there, you should never pay a load.

18:00

never buy an A share or C share that

18:02

carries a load. Now,

18:06

fast forward to today, we now

18:09

have 10,400 mutual funds and ETFs across 130

18:11

different investment

18:16

categories. And

18:20

for equity funds, the average fee has gone from that

18:22

90 basis points all the way down to 30 basis,

18:25

sorry, 80 basis points, it was 80 basis points.

18:27

Now it's 30 basis points. So

18:29

50 basis points doesn't sound like a lot, but year after

18:31

year, you can add up. And

18:35

loaded funds are way less prevalent.

18:38

Hopefully they'll be gone forever at some point soon. But

18:43

nonetheless, there's enough people that realize

18:46

you don't need to pay those loads. Now,

18:49

ETFs account for about a third of the

18:51

industry as a whole, the fund industry. And

18:54

obviously passive is now surpassed

18:57

active. And

19:01

now you can get passive and active

19:03

in almost every asset category. Now that is not necessarily

19:05

a good thing. I've said this many times. The

19:09

further you get away from large cap

19:12

equities, the less passive

19:14

makes sense. And

19:18

in some instances, even large cap passive may

19:20

not make sense. But

19:25

back in 1984, balanced funds were very rare.

19:27

You had the Vanguard Wellington, that was kind

19:29

of the first one. But

19:31

now with targeted funds, there are a

19:34

lot more balanced choices like that. So

19:38

in general, the fund industry has evolved

19:41

and there are more choices

19:43

and it's been better for the investor.

19:45

Frankly, one of the best innovations

19:50

in finance over the last 50 years. But

19:56

there are downsides. There are negatives. The

20:00

way we got to this place with so many

20:03

options is that it's been easy to launch

20:05

and market these funds. What

20:08

that means is that bad funds come

20:11

about pretty easily. A lot of

20:13

gimmicky funds that latch on to the latest

20:16

trends, the sexy

20:18

titles. And

20:20

we know through history when those

20:22

funds launch, it's usually at the worst time.

20:26

From a market timing perspective, usually

20:31

one that asset class is over-owned,

20:34

over-interested in, and over-valued. Then

20:40

you have other tools like market timing vehicles,

20:42

think of leveraged ETFs. They're

20:47

fine for trading, but we know the vast majority

20:49

of people that buy those and trade them, they

20:52

don't do well. They

20:55

lose money. And there's

20:57

still a lot of them. Morningstar's database

20:59

has 70 funds specializing in digital assets.

21:03

For example, we know the nebulous

21:05

nature of that. Fifty

21:08

that focus on just limited partnerships, so 130

21:11

inverse trading funds that are trying to short

21:13

the market. 190

21:16

leveraged trading funds and 340

21:18

thematic funds. You

21:23

know, from AI and robotics to

21:26

clean energy to whatever is sexy

21:28

at that particular time. And

21:33

we know those are speculative vehicles. Not

21:37

about building wealth. So there's

21:39

still pitfalls in the fund industry to

21:41

watch out for, but in

21:43

general, the industry is moving in the right

21:45

direction. And

21:49

the investment experience for most investors is

21:51

better. Pay less, capture more

21:54

of the fund's returns. It's

21:56

easier to transact with ETFs, intraday

21:58

trading. And

22:01

the data is easier

22:03

to find and the disclosures are better.

22:05

So there's a lot

22:07

of positive trends that will probably continue

22:10

within the fund industry, but that does

22:12

not mean that all mutual

22:14

funds or all ETFs are created equal. There

22:17

are pitfalls there and you have to

22:19

do your research on them just like

22:21

you need to do with individual companies.

22:23

It's a different type of research, but

22:25

it's still research nonetheless. So don't be

22:29

complacent by saying, oh, it's a mutual fund

22:31

or it's an ETF. It's probably diversified. I

22:34

can look at the title of the fund

22:36

and know what it's invested in. No, it's

22:39

not how it works. It's

22:41

more complicated than that. And you still need

22:43

to do your due diligence. So a

22:46

lot of positives, but there's

22:49

still red flags from time to

22:51

time. Now we're heading into a

22:53

break. I'm ready to take your calls now at 8 at

22:55

8, 99 shirt. Let's

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I mean, how would it come in handy and

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24:52

In today's market, more than

24:54

ever, you need unbiased investing

24:56

guidance because it can

24:58

help you achieve financial freedom. Well,

25:01

you've come to the right place.

25:03

Invest Talk, 888-99-CHART. Now

25:09

in the next Invest Talk, we look into

25:11

this topic, why hundreds of U.S. banks may

25:13

be at risk of failure. One

25:15

expert says most at-risk banks aren't

25:17

insolvent or even close to insolvent.

25:19

They are just stressed. Now

25:22

let's pivot over to a live

25:24

call and talk to Thomas. He

25:26

is in Santa Cruz and he's

25:28

looking at URNM, which

25:31

is the Sprott Uranium

25:33

Miners ETF. Do you own it or

25:35

looking to buy it? So

25:39

I own a small portion of it, small

25:42

being 2% about of

25:44

my portfolio. It

25:46

was up pretty good today. It's

25:48

one of those plays where I'm

25:51

just so mentally

25:54

committed to holding it for so long

25:56

that it's like, how much

25:58

can I really own? in

26:01

terms of the industry of just owning

26:03

uranium miners. So I really, part one

26:05

of my question is, how much is

26:08

a reasonable amount percentage

26:10

wise to have in

26:12

a portfolio? Do

26:14

you think this is a good place

26:16

to be in terms of the ETFs

26:18

for uranium? And is miners

26:20

a good way of playing uranium, similar to

26:23

gold? And what

26:26

would be a good place for pullbacks

26:28

to add more to? Today, it's up

26:30

to 53. My

26:33

average is about in the $48 mark. And

26:36

it seems to, when it pulls back to 48, it

26:38

seems to jump right back up these last

26:40

few months here. So I'd

26:42

love to hear your thoughts. Well,

26:45

I will say the largest

26:48

holding of this ETF, Kamico,

26:50

is the largest holding of

26:52

some of our strategies. And

26:55

it's around the 5%

26:58

level of

27:00

the entire portfolio. So if you're at 2%,

27:02

I think going up from there, and obviously

27:04

this is well-diversified because Kamico

27:06

is only 15%. It's the largest holding of this

27:09

fund, but it's only 15%. So

27:13

it just depends on which one you rather own.

27:15

But this one's fine. He says 2%

27:17

of your portfolio, I have no problem doubling

27:20

that from there, obviously. We're

27:22

higher than that. And it's going

27:24

through a consolidation period here over the

27:26

past, really since the start of the

27:28

year. It's still up on the year.

27:32

But it's had some decent

27:34

pullbacks. It peaked out around $58 per

27:36

share. And

27:38

recently in early March, it hit 45.

27:41

And now it's at 53. So I

27:45

think that there's more upside potential here

27:47

than downside. So I wouldn't get cute

27:49

with it. I would

27:51

just add the position to be frank. But

27:54

it's a good way to play it. Fair

27:57

enough. Thank you so much. No

27:59

problem. for the call. That

28:02

was URNM, which is the

28:04

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF. Now

28:06

I hope

28:09

you've been telling your friends about our

28:11

Invest Talk audio podcast that is

28:14

now available also in video form

28:16

over on our YouTube channel and

28:19

we received finance investment questions in the comment

28:21

section of those videos and

28:23

here's one that came in yesterday. Jim

28:26

Lee says your thoughts on APH, APH,

28:28

which is

28:32

Amphenol, and this is a

28:35

name that is certainly strong.

28:37

Its relative strength is all

28:39

the way up at 92

28:41

and they make electrical,

28:43

electronic, and fiber optic connectors,

28:45

interconnect systems, and cables and

28:48

their earnings just continue to power

28:50

higher. My issue though

28:52

is that it's pretty expensive. You're

28:56

talking about a $121

28:58

stock that's expected to earn nearly $4 next

29:03

year. So let's say

29:05

they do make $4 that's

29:07

going to be an over 30

29:11

times multiple. And

29:15

revenue's growth last quarter was 9% earnings growth

29:18

was 16%.

29:22

So that's my issue. I think it's just a bit

29:24

expensive but it is a

29:27

very good company and it's

29:29

frankly a name that's on our watch list.

29:32

Okay, $2.2 billion in

29:34

free cash flow on a $70 to call it

29:36

$74 billion enterprise

29:40

value. About a 3%

29:42

free cash flow yield. That's

29:44

okay but it's not amazing.

29:46

Returned equity is at 25%, return invested capital is 16%. Both of those

29:48

very very

29:51

solid numbers. So the

29:53

moral story here is great balance sheet, great

29:55

business, just multiples are a

29:59

bit too high for my life. I would like to get

30:01

this back below $100 per share. And

30:04

then I would start to contemplate Amphenol,

30:06

but absolutely should be on your watch

30:08

list. And I

30:11

would be trying to target

30:13

a pullback for a buy of it. Thanks

30:16

for the call. That was

30:18

Amphenol, A-P-H is the symbol.

30:21

Now let's talk about monetary policy. We

30:23

just had the Fed meeting yesterday and

30:25

everyone's focused on whether they're going to

30:27

raise rates but it's

30:30

pretty clear that we are in a new

30:33

regime where maybe monetary

30:35

policy doesn't work the

30:38

same way it used to. Now

30:40

it never was a very precise tool. We call it

30:43

a blunt instrument in the industry. But

30:46

an environment where fiscal policy is

30:49

dominant and

30:52

can impact demand faster than

30:55

the lags of demand of

30:59

monetary policy. How

31:03

much can you truly rely on what the

31:05

Fed is doing? Yes,

31:09

higher rates have helped to pull down

31:11

inflation a good amount, but

31:14

how much of that was supply

31:16

chains just healing post pandemic? And

31:18

how much of that was really

31:21

the monetary policy transmitting

31:24

to the broader economy? Because if you

31:26

look at it, it's

31:28

had a pretty weak

31:30

impact in this cycle. And

31:35

that's mainly because, as we talked about

31:37

before, people have these mortgage rates

31:39

that are locked in at low rates. The

31:43

FHA had a paper between 1998 and the pandemic. The

31:47

share of Americans with mortgage rates locked

31:49

in more than one percentage

31:52

point below the market rate was never

31:54

above 40%. Now

31:58

it's above 70%. 70%

32:02

that have won more than 3 percentage points

32:04

below the current market rate. Think

32:08

about that. That

32:11

is that rate lock that is

32:14

there no matter really what the Fed

32:16

does unless they drastically lower rates. But

32:21

that causes other issues. Now

32:25

higher rates has a clear impact

32:28

on manufacturing and construction for

32:30

example, very capital intense businesses.

32:34

But the economy continues to evolve

32:36

to be more service oriented. And

32:43

so there's two options

32:45

either the policy

32:48

that the Fed has to wait

32:50

longer for the

32:53

impact of these

32:56

rates or maybe

32:58

they change the way they look

33:01

at inflation. Maybe

33:08

focusing on the industries

33:11

that actually do have

33:13

an impact or are impacted excuse me

33:16

by higher interest rates. Now

33:22

if you look at the places where inflation

33:25

is still sticky, places

33:27

like shelter, motor vehicle insurance

33:29

for example, those all continue

33:31

to be impacted

33:34

by supply chains. And the fact that

33:36

supply chains while much better than they

33:38

were a few years ago still have

33:40

some issues. And

33:44

this is why rates need to stay higher for longer. So

33:48

that creates potential stresses in

33:50

those areas that are impacted by

33:52

higher rates. And

33:55

certain parts of the economy and consumers

33:59

are impacted. than others. If

34:02

you have a mortgage at 3%,

34:05

your cost of living is pretty much locked in.

34:08

As opposed to a renter, that's

34:11

going to continue to float. So,

34:19

monetary policy is a

34:21

catch-all tool, but

34:23

it has varying influences on different parts of

34:25

the economy. And

34:29

you can argue that higher rates actually stoke

34:33

inflation. We talked about the interest

34:36

paid on the debt, but think about one's

34:39

getting capital-intensive businesses. The

34:43

hurdle rate for investment to

34:46

bring supply on in various industries is

34:48

now higher because they can either take

34:50

that money, invest it, put it in treasuries

34:52

at 5%, or they

34:54

can invest it in this part of

34:56

their business to increase supply. But

34:59

that comes with risk, and so they're going

35:02

to need a requisite level of return

35:06

on their capital in order to take on that

35:08

endeavor. And so,

35:11

higher rates can mean that

35:13

supply response is slower. So,

35:19

there are limits to monetary policy. It

35:24

can help, but other tools

35:26

are likely needed. Coordination may

35:28

be necessary between monetary and

35:31

fiscal, and

35:33

maybe even government policy to help with

35:35

supply side. So,

35:39

I wanted to really discuss

35:41

that because it's so important to

35:44

realize that our economies are complex,

35:49

and not everything is created equal.

35:51

Not every industry is impacted the

35:53

same way, by the same

35:55

factors. And

35:58

so, when you're looking at different industries, different investments,

36:00

the broader economy, you need to understand

36:03

that. Otherwise you're going to conflate

36:06

two things that shouldn't be

36:08

linked together. Now

36:14

when people take the time to leave an Invest

36:16

Talk podcast review on iTunes, we'd like to thank

36:18

them for their courtesy, like getting to their questions

36:20

quickly. Dismal scientist says, I've

36:23

joined paid services, but Invest Talk is a free

36:25

podcast. This is where I've learned the most about

36:27

how markets work. Now I'm thinking about M-Y-R-G-M-Y-R-G

36:30

for long term hold.

36:33

My Roth, what are

36:35

your thoughts? This is

36:37

a name that just fell

36:40

on earnings. Let me pull it up

36:42

here. It

36:44

closed yesterday, about $166 per share. Today

36:48

it closed right around $152 per share. They

36:54

provide transmission distribution service for electric

36:56

utility industry and contract – okay,

36:58

so they service

37:00

the utility industry.

37:05

I tend to like that. The

37:07

demand for our electric grid continues

37:10

to increase and

37:13

they help with

37:16

the transmission and distribution

37:18

segments providing design. I'm just

37:21

reading there. I haven't heard of this company, so I'm trying to

37:23

get a sense of what they do. Provides

37:26

design, engineering, procurement, construction, upgrade,

37:28

maintenance, and repair services and

37:30

transmission and distribution networks and

37:33

substation facilities. I like that. I

37:36

definitely like that business. Now

37:38

let's take a look at their earnings trends.

37:41

This year – sorry, last year, $5.40 in earnings. $6.42

37:45

expected this year in 8.12. The

37:48

following year, however, last quarter, revenues were flat.

37:50

Earnings were down 19%. No

37:52

dividend yield here. They also have very

37:54

little debt on their balance sheet, so

37:57

I like that. $2.5 billion. market

38:00

cap. So definitely a small cap name return

38:02

equity 15% a

38:04

solid but not amazing. So

38:07

but you know good business.

38:09

It's generally an uptrend even though it's pulled

38:11

back here from 180 down to 152. I'm gonna give this

38:16

one a thumbs up enterprise value to

38:18

even going forward right around

38:20

12 times. I

38:22

have no problem with that. I

38:24

like this solid business in a

38:26

good area, good balance sheet and

38:29

it's pulled back to good support. So

38:31

I'm gonna give my our G thumbs

38:35

up. Let's go talk to

38:37

Sunny in San Francisco looking at

38:39

the JP which is a

38:42

Barclays. What

38:44

is the IPath fund? Can you tell me more about this?

38:48

Sammy sorry. Yeah.

38:51

Yeah. Thanks for being my

38:53

call. I was asking about

38:55

stock ticker symbol. D

38:57

is an dog,

39:00

J, Jack, T is

39:02

an Tom. Ah

39:05

the Trump.

39:08

Got it. Okay. I would like to get your

39:10

thoughts on that. What do you think you know

39:12

is going on with the stock has been going

39:14

up lately. Yeah. Well,

39:19

I mean the business is it's not really a

39:21

business. Right. If you

39:23

look at their profits and their revenues

39:26

it's next to that

39:28

last quarter revenues were $800,000 profits were

39:30

negative. You know, this

39:35

is this is not a business

39:37

that is worth anywhere

39:39

near $6.6 billion valuation. There's no

39:46

argument that it can anywhere

39:49

even 600 million would

39:51

be a great stretch and this is 11

39:53

times that number. So

39:58

you know you're gonna get balances like. this that

40:00

happens especially companies

40:04

that have high short interests and people

40:06

are betting against etc. This

40:08

is not an investment

40:10

opportunity at this point. Like I

40:12

said it's probably a better short. It's

40:15

going to be very volatile. You have to have a

40:17

really strong stomach but you

40:19

know Truth Social hasn't really been

40:23

able to garner a level

40:27

of scale. It's

40:29

an echo chamber and you know we unfortunately

40:32

in today's tech world a lot of people kind

40:35

of get in their own echo chamber and it's

40:37

just one way for you

40:39

know the Maga Right to be

40:42

in their own little echo chamber and so

40:44

that's going to limit their

40:48

ability to scale to

40:51

sell ads etc. and

40:53

this is a stone cold short over the

40:56

long term but obviously near term. A

40:59

big sell-off like it had from you know nearly

41:01

$80 for share all the way down to nearly

41:03

$20 and now it's back up to $48 and

41:05

change but it's

41:07

not an investment opportunity. If anything it's a

41:09

short that's going to be extremely volatile. Thanks

41:14

for the call. Now this is Invest

41:16

Talk. I'm Justin Klein and we have one goal here

41:18

each and every weekday and that's helping you achieve your

41:21

own version of financial freedom and our work continues after

41:23

this final break to get your questions in right now

41:25

at 8 at 8.99 chart. The

41:41

more you learn about how the market works

41:43

the better your chances for

41:45

success. So don't forget

41:48

to call Invest Talk 888.99 chart.

41:50

Hi I'm Stephen Justin. I'll

41:53

leave some Detroit call

41:55

in. Just had a question about

41:57

how people sell stocks and orders.

42:00

to write it off taxes in the case

42:02

that they're at a loss in a certain

42:04

security. Could you explain a little bit about

42:06

that and how much you're

42:08

able to sell at a loss in

42:10

order to write it off in an

42:12

individual brokerage account? Thank you. Well,

42:15

very simple. Any losses you take

42:17

can offset any gains that

42:20

you make in your taxable brokerage

42:22

account. You can also

42:24

carry forward losses up to 3,000

42:26

per year. But

42:30

that's pretty simple. That's tax loss selling. A lot of

42:32

people do that near year end. That

42:34

also typically exacerbates the trends in

42:37

the market. You look in 2022, for example, so

42:40

many tech names are down a lot.

42:43

And in December,

42:45

that pushed them down even more

42:47

into year end as people were taking their

42:49

losses to offset gains

42:51

elsewhere. Maybe they took on other positions earlier

42:54

in the year. And so, yeah,

42:56

you can certainly sell those and

42:58

offset those gains. So, yeah,

43:02

the basic nature of

43:04

taxable accounts. Let's talk

43:06

about working from home. And early on

43:08

in the pandemic, there were many studies

43:10

that touted that

43:12

working from home made workers

43:15

more productive. Harvard study found

43:17

an 8% increase in the

43:19

number of calls handled per hour by employees of an

43:22

online retailer, for example. But

43:26

that was talked about for a while.

43:28

But the revised paper, published

43:31

in May of last year by

43:33

the Federal Reserve Bank of New

43:35

York said that that efficiency actually

43:38

declined to negative for home

43:40

was more efficient, wasn't

43:44

really true. And then other

43:46

studies started to come out, one from MIT in

43:49

joint with UCLA.

43:51

And they found that those

43:53

working from home were 18% less productive

43:55

than their peers in office. And

44:01

then a study from University of

44:03

Chicago found a productivity shortfall as

44:06

much as 19% for remote

44:08

workers at a large IT firm. And

44:13

other studies say that

44:16

creativity is inhibited when

44:18

you're on video conference calls versus in

44:20

office. And that's, I think, pretty

44:23

obvious. It's

44:25

hard for people to collaborate. And

44:30

it's not efficient to run to your neighbors and

44:33

your coworkers for assistance, figure

44:35

out how to resolve a problem. And

44:40

another major issue is the fact

44:42

that people learn less. It's

44:45

harder to pick up skills from your colleagues

44:47

when you're not sitting next to them

44:49

on a day-to-day basis. So

44:52

it's pretty clear that from

44:54

a productivity standpoint, working from

44:56

home generally

44:58

is not better for the business. Now,

45:02

it's better for the individual. More

45:05

workers feel like they have a

45:09

better work-life balance when they work from home. It

45:12

makes happier employees. They

45:15

spend less time commuting. They

45:21

can go pick up the kids from school, go

45:23

to doctor's appointments, things like that. Maybe get a

45:25

workout in. Just be

45:27

more efficient throughout their day as opposed to

45:30

drive to work, stay there for eight hours, then

45:33

go get your stuff done, go to the gym, etc. And

45:39

studies have shown actually workers would be willing to take

45:41

a pay cut to work from home versus in office.

45:47

So maybe having satisfied employees on slightly

45:49

lower pay might be better,

45:51

a better

45:54

deal for employers. But

45:57

when you're thinking about what's going on with your employees, you're going to

45:59

have to be more efficient. with office and I think there's still a

46:01

lot of issues with the office market. The

46:04

fundamentals of work from home are

46:08

clearly not one-sided. In

46:11

many industries it makes more sense for

46:13

at least a hybrid environment

46:17

and I think that maybe is

46:19

where most industries land.

46:23

But you could fade the office decline

46:26

and say, hey, more workers

46:28

will return because of that

46:30

productivity gap. Well, that about does it. I'm

46:32

Justin Klein. This is another Invest Talk program we

46:34

thank for listening. We encourage you

46:36

to tell your friends and family about

46:38

our free podcast downloads, which you can

46:40

find anytime at iTunes, Spotify, Google Play.

46:42

Be sure to rate and review on

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46:46

friends that the new Invest Talk podcast

46:49

is available in video form on our

46:51

YouTube channel, Search Invest Talk with two

46:53

Ts. Now Independent Thinking Shared Success.

46:55

This is Invest Talk. Invest

47:00

Talk is a trademark of KPP Financial

47:03

because of the nature of the interactive

47:05

dialogue inherent in the format of this

47:07

program. It's important for the listener to

47:09

understand that not all comments made will

47:12

apply to them. Specifically, nothing said shall

47:14

be taken to be investment advice or

47:16

shall statements on this program be considered

47:18

an offer to buy or sell security.

47:21

Because such advice is rendered solely on

47:24

an individual basis and at times will

47:26

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47:28

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47:30

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47:33

Pavlis and Peasley Financial, a registered

47:35

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47:37

rights. For more information regarding KPP's

47:40

investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461. Steve

47:45

Peasley is president and Justin Klein

47:48

is chief executive officer of Klein,

47:50

Pavlis and Peasley Financial. Thank

47:56

you. Thank

48:04

you. Thank

48:30

you.