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What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

Released Wednesday, 25th October 2023
 1 person rated this episode
What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

What We All Got Wrong About Twitter

Wednesday, 25th October 2023
 1 person rated this episode
Rate Episode

Episode Transcript

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0:01

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0:54

Jason Goldman was supposed to be an astrophysicist.

0:56

Instead, he ended up dropping out of grad

0:58

school and working at internet companies. I'd

1:01

been extremely online before that was even a thing.

1:04

I was like a nerd from way back in

1:06

the early 90s. Goldman got a job

1:08

at Google and eventually ended up at a

1:10

dream gig for a young tech worker in

1:12

San Francisco. He was head of product

1:15

at Twitter.

1:17

One problem, though. Twitter barely

1:19

worked at all during this time. If

1:22

you used Twitter back then, you will remember the

1:24

fail whale. This is a cartoon

1:26

that showed a flock of birds carrying a whale. And

1:29

you got it when you opened the Twitter homepage if the

1:31

platform was down, which happened

1:34

a lot of the time. Most

1:36

of the time, Twitter went down unexpectedly.

1:38

Every so often, it went down on purpose,

1:41

like in June 2009. I

1:43

wrote a blog post saying, hey, we're

1:45

taking a downtime. We'll be down from 2

1:48

to 3 a.m. on Saturday morning,

1:51

West Coast time, in order to do this critical database

1:53

upgrade, which was critical. We're telling the

1:55

world we need to

1:56

take a break for a couple hours to

1:59

fix the thing. because we're failing all the

2:01

time. Yeah, because we're failing all the time.

2:03

Lots of people on Twitter would complain whenever

2:05

the service went down. But this time, the

2:08

Twitter team got an unusual request from

2:10

the State Department. We'd like you

2:12

not to do this if you can. We understand it's important,

2:15

but there's a thing going on,

2:17

and this is really bad timing for it. Could you

2:19

do it another time? The reason that

2:21

the US State Department wanted Twitter to stay

2:23

up was that Iran had just gone through a presidential

2:26

election,

2:27

and there were very believable accusations of fraud

2:29

and protesters had taken to the streets.

2:32

And people in Barack Obama's administration

2:34

thought protesters were using Twitter.

2:36

They felt like going down

2:39

would negatively affect the protesters'

2:41

ability to organize.

2:44

When Twitter got that request from the

2:46

State Department, it was not a tech

2:48

giant. It was a three-year-old

2:51

accidental company staffed almost

2:53

entirely by inexperienced young men.

2:56

But when the Obama administration looked at Twitter, it

2:58

didn't see a bumbling startup. The State

3:01

Department saw Twitter as a bastion of free

3:03

speech, a place where journalists and dissidents

3:05

and regular people shared information from all

3:08

over the world. This

3:10

may be hard to remember, but back in 2009, it

3:13

was totally normal for serious, important

3:16

people to talk about Twitter like this. All

3:18

kinds of people. Here's

3:20

a 2009 quote from Mark Fiefely,

3:23

a former official at the National Security

3:26

Council.

3:27

Quote,

3:27

Without Twitter, the people of Iran

3:30

would not have felt empowered and confident

3:32

to stand up for freedom and democracy.

3:34

End quote. Twitter, Fiefely

3:37

argued, should win the Nobel Peace Prize. The

3:40

Obama administration's request worried

3:42

Goldman and Biz Stone, one of Twitter's

3:45

co-founders. If they did something the State

3:47

Department asked them to do, did that mean they

3:49

were taking sides in an Iranian election?

3:52

We didn't want to pretend that we knew what

3:54

was going on, particularly with respect

3:56

to geopolitical affairs. Biz and I had

3:58

a real talk about this. at the time,

4:00

like a real like, can you believe this is

4:02

what we're doing right now? Like, can you believe

4:04

it? Like, we're not that smart.

4:07

Goldman and Stone did what Washington asked

4:09

and Twitter stayed up. And over in Iran,

4:12

well, that's the thing. This

4:14

role was minimal and it didn't, it was

4:17

in promise. It was a listening word of mouth that

4:19

organizers use in order to bring

4:21

people in the streets. Baba Krahimi

4:23

is a professor of communication, culture and

4:25

religion at the University of California,

4:28

San Diego.

4:29

In 2009, he went to Iran to study online

4:31

political life.

4:33

And when the protest kicked off, he ended up doing lots

4:35

of TV interviews from Tehran.

4:37

He found that TV networks thought what the State Department

4:39

thought.

4:40

That Twitter was driving events inside the

4:42

country. Protesters

4:45

aren't only sending video and photos,

4:47

but live updates from the demonstrations

4:50

using a website called Twitter.

4:52

I mean, I remember one Fox News reporter

4:55

asked me, what's your view of Twitter

4:57

in Iran? And

4:59

at that time, I actually didn't know

5:02

much about Twitter because I haven't really

5:04

used it at that time. I didn't see any Iranians use

5:06

it. I didn't encounter it much. I kept

5:08

talking about Facebook, but Twitter was somehow

5:10

pushed in our conversations. And

5:13

much of it had to do with, again, this

5:15

basic question, how Iranians

5:18

are using internet or Twitter.

5:21

That was the big question everyone wanted to know.

5:23

To be clear, people outside Iran were

5:25

certainly using Twitter. They were trying to focus

5:28

attention on what was happening inside Iran.

5:31

The State Department, the media, Iranian expats,

5:33

they all thought Twitter was central

5:35

to protests in Iran because they were

5:37

on Twitter and that's where they learned about the protests.

5:41

But to protesters on the ground, Twitter

5:43

was nowhere near as important as it looked from

5:45

the outside. I

5:47

remember this period really well.

5:49

I was spending a lot of time reporting on Twitter, the

5:51

company back then, and I was using

5:53

Twitter a ton.

5:55

And I was one of those people that felt like Twitter

5:57

was important. But also

5:59

I couldn't tell you.

5:59

exactly why that was.

6:02

Turns out the folks at the State Department were in the same

6:04

boat.

6:08

And to me, that is the story of Twitter, one

6:11

we've been playing and replaying for more than a decade.

6:14

We know it's a big deal, but we don't really

6:16

know how big a deal it is or

6:18

why. And we keep getting it wrong,

6:21

all of us, even now, it

6:23

can still command our attention in inexplicable

6:25

ways. Twitter has become kind of the de

6:27

facto talent square. It's

6:30

important to the function of democracy.

6:32

It's important to the function of the

6:34

United States as a free country and many

6:36

other countries and to help freedom

6:38

in the world. A year

6:41

ago, in 2022, Elon Musk

6:43

became the latest and most significant person

6:46

to fundamentally misunderstand Twitter. He

6:48

bought it for $44 billion, and

6:51

we all know what happened next. If I acquire

6:53

a Twitter, something goes wrong. That's

6:54

my fault 100%. I

6:57

think that will be quite a few hours.

7:03

I'm Peter Cosby. And you're listening to

7:05

Land of the Giants, the Twitter fantasy.

7:15

It's pretty reasonable to say we are at the end

7:17

of Twitter as we know it. For

7:19

one thing, it's now called X, which virtually

7:21

no one calls it, so I won't either. More

7:24

important, Twitter in some form will

7:26

probably still linger on for a while.

7:29

But despite what you've heard, Twitter's not dead

7:31

or dying because of Elon Musk.

7:34

I'd argue the platform had dug its own grave long

7:36

before he showed up to throw dirt on it. Long,

7:39

long before, you can go all the way back to

7:41

the very beginning. Twitter

7:43

began life as an accident. It

7:45

started as a side project of a side project,

7:48

and that afterthought quality has stuck around all

7:51

of its life. But choices people

7:53

in and around the company made in its earliest

7:55

days, and in some cases, choices they didn't make

7:58

helped permanently shape the company's trajectory.

8:01

It's a course that ends with the world's richest man

8:03

buying it and instantly regretting it.

8:05

Here's the quick backstory. Ev

8:08

Williams, a young, idealistic Nebraska

8:10

native, moved to San Francisco in

8:13

the 1990s to join the first web boom.

8:16

Williams co-founded a company to build workplace

8:18

productivity software, but the

8:20

only product they shipped was a side project called

8:23

Blogger. Blogger let anyone with

8:25

a keyboard and internet connection publish

8:27

their thoughts on a blog. And

8:30

Google bought Blogger in 2003.

8:33

Williams went on to co-found another startup

8:35

called Odeo and that was going to do for audio

8:37

what Blogger did for writing. But

8:40

in 2006, Apple made it easy to move

8:42

podcasts onto an iPod, which

8:45

is exactly what Odeo was trying to do. So

8:48

there was no reason for Odeo to exist.

8:51

So at that point it's like, well, you know,

8:53

what are we doing here? That's

8:56

Blaine Cook, one of the engineers who was working

8:58

at Odeo. Since Odeo now needed

9:01

to pivot, it organized a hack day.

9:03

That's a day for their developers to drop everything,

9:05

dream up a new idea, and build a rough

9:07

version of it. One of those developers

9:10

was Jack Dorsey.

9:12

He had an idea for something he called Status.

9:14

He borrowed the idea from instant messenger

9:16

apps like AIM.

9:18

Instant messaging clients had this

9:20

idea of status. So you could say like, I'm

9:22

available or I'm offline, but then you could put

9:24

in some other

9:26

information about what you were up to. Like you might

9:28

say, you know, making dinner or something like that. And

9:31

so Jack's idea was really just take that

9:33

course status update thing

9:36

and then make it something that persists

9:38

that you can actually share.

9:40

Shortly after that status got renamed

9:42

Twitter. Word for the sounds. Birds

9:44

make.

9:45

And that prototype of Twitter, the MVP

9:48

product that gets built in a day, more or

9:50

less. What is the reaction internally? Oh

9:52

my God, this is it? This is a gazillion dollar

9:54

company or is it? Oh, that's interesting.

9:57

I think more on the oh, that's interesting.

9:59

Part of the reason Twitter wasn't an obvious winner,

10:02

it worked using SMS text messages.

10:05

And at the time, in order to send a text for most

10:07

phones, you needed to tap out the letters

10:10

using the number pad. Tap a key once

10:12

for A, twice for B, three times for

10:14

C. This was deeply annoying,

10:17

and it was not something most people ever bothered

10:19

with. Sending and receiving text

10:21

messages also cost money, which

10:24

meant that early on, Twitter lost

10:26

money on every tweet. This is important.

10:29

We're gonna come back to it later.

10:33

Some people got Twitter right away.

10:36

Here's Jason Goldman. Ev

10:38

signs me up for Twitter over

10:40

SMS, and we are having dinner

10:43

on our way to go on a trip together,

10:45

to go to Vegas together. And so all my

10:47

first tweets are from this trip

10:50

that we take together to Vegas. And

10:52

it's like me, like saying, I'm gonna go play poker, and

10:54

Ev saying, like, you know, he's hanging out by the pool. And

10:57

like, I'm like, oh, like, this is like this ambient

10:59

awareness of like what my friends are doing. I

11:01

don't have to like text with them or make a plan. I just

11:03

know what their day is like. And I just

11:06

like, I don't know, just like immediately made sense to me what

11:08

this was gonna be. Remember, this is before

11:10

the iPhone and before the millions of ways

11:13

our phones let us track and communicate with each

11:15

other.

11:16

Facebook existed, but that was where

11:18

you posted pictures from the party you went to last weekend.

11:20

Twitter gave you present tense, actionable

11:23

intel about what your friends were doing now.

11:27

Williams hired Goldman to help decide what

11:29

Odeo's parent company should do next.

11:31

My first decision, or like the first email

11:34

I send, basically as director of product strategy

11:36

is, we shouldn't work on anything besides

11:38

Twitter. Odeo spun off Twitter as

11:40

its own company. Williams didn't

11:42

want to run it day to day, so the founders held

11:44

a meeting to decide who would be CEO. It's

11:48

principally Jack's idea. And so

11:50

Jack becomes the CEO, and

11:52

basically everyone else ends up going to work there.

11:55

Jack Dorsey had never run a company.

11:57

He had zero management experience.

11:59

And at the time he was considering quitting tech

12:02

and becoming a fashion designer.

12:04

Jack was always a bit of a cipher.

12:06

John Borthwick is an investor who funded several

12:09

apps that Twitter ended up buying.

12:11

So he got to observe the early Twitter team

12:13

and Dorsey at close range.

12:16

Just very hard to read,

12:18

just hard to know exactly where his head's at.

12:20

And hard to know how much he's

12:23

actually thinking.

12:25

Dorsey loved nightclubs and one of his primary

12:28

use cases for Twitter was to send his friends updates

12:30

about his plans from a noisy bar.

12:32

So it made sense that Twitter's big coming

12:35

out party happened in 2007 at South

12:37

by Southwest. That's the music and culture

12:39

festival that takes place in Austin, Texas every

12:42

spring. There's a tech part too

12:44

and back then it had a real spring break

12:46

vibe for a certain kind of tech person. Who's

12:49

going, what kind of nerds are going

12:52

to Austin in March? Some real

12:54

nerds, man, some real nerds. Like people

12:56

who like writing on the internet, sort of

12:58

in that like kind of early internet culture

13:01

space. And then at the end

13:03

of the tech part, you start seeing all of

13:05

the cool people in leather jackets with

13:07

guitars and like, you know, musical instruments

13:09

show up. You're like, all right, the actually cool people are here

13:11

now. It's time for us to go home. But

13:13

while the tech nerd swarmed Austin, the Twitter

13:16

founders had a captive audience. They

13:18

set up a big screen in the lobby with a live feed

13:20

of tweets about the conference and they gave

13:22

attendees instructions about how to sign up.

13:25

And the tech guys at South by used

13:27

Twitter pretty much as intended.

13:29

They told other tech guys about where to find

13:32

free drinks. The whole structure

13:34

of South by is the yes, there's

13:36

the panels, but it's really about

13:38

like the social scene. And

13:41

you would see this emergent behavior

13:44

where people would be in the bar,

13:46

the scene would be kind of dying down. All

13:48

of a sudden you'd see a bunch of tweets that like something else

13:50

was popping off down the street and you

13:52

would just everyone. I was like, Oh, we're all moving

13:54

over. I saw the tweets and things going on and everyone move

13:57

over. It was just like this idea that you

13:59

could see. people moving because

14:01

of the tweets that they read. And

14:03

it was just like this dominant back

14:05

channel for the

14:08

conference itself. Twitter

14:10

ended up being the big startup coming

14:12

out of South by that year.

14:14

They even won an award for Best New

14:16

Blog. Jack Dorsey gave

14:19

the acceptance speech and he was very

14:21

on brand. I would like to thank everyone

14:23

in 140 Coaches left and I

14:25

just did. Thank you. Thank you.

14:29

So the founders South by proved that Twitter

14:31

could make a crowd of people move like a

14:33

single all knowing organism.

14:35

And that was one early idea of what Twitter was

14:38

gonna be. But it wasn't the only

14:40

vision of what Twitter could be. Around

14:42

this time there were lots of competing ideas even

14:44

inside the company. For

14:46

Ev Williams who'd founded Blogger a decade

14:49

earlier and would go on to found

14:51

Medium,

14:52

Twitter was another place that would make it easy

14:54

for ordinary people to say what's on their

14:56

mind.

14:57

Here's Williams in an interview from 2010. The

15:00

way we described on the homepage was a way to keep

15:02

up with friends, family, coworkers by

15:05

answering the question, what are you doing?

15:07

Another version of what Twitter could be was not

15:09

a platform at all but a protocol

15:11

like email.

15:13

No one owns email but it's one of the basic

15:15

languages of the internet. Allows people

15:17

in different parts of the world using software and devices

15:20

made by different companies to talk to

15:22

each other. Here's Jason Goldman again.

15:24

Jack really believed I think in this protocol

15:27

notion of the product and this

15:30

public good notion of the product like describing

15:32

Twitter as like the public town square or

15:34

like this protocol layer of the internet. But

15:36

protocols don't usually make tons of

15:38

money. And at that moment right

15:41

after South by Southwest, Twitter

15:43

started looking like it might make some people

15:45

very rich.

15:46

Yahoo offered $12 million for the

15:49

company. The founders turned the offer down.

15:51

They thought Twitter was worth $100 million at least.

15:55

Venture capitalists agreed.

15:58

Twitter started raising round after round. of

16:00

VC money starting in 2007.

16:02

They needed that money to add servers, to

16:04

hire people, to pay for those SMS

16:07

fees.

16:08

But taking that money meant the dream

16:10

of an open protocol

16:11

was dead.

16:13

Once you've agreed to become a VC company,

16:15

the VCs have a very specific

16:18

contractual structural

16:20

idea about like how

16:22

this is gonna play out, which is they're

16:25

investing to get an outsized

16:28

return, 10 X or more in

16:30

the next seven plus years, or

16:32

it goes to zero. Like those are the outcomes they're

16:34

optimizing for. It's like, we're not really

16:37

interested in a double here. Like we're not really interested

16:39

in like, we put in $5 million and

16:41

it comes back $10 million. How

16:43

seriously were those discussions happening? That

16:46

maybe it could be something else. It wasn't

16:48

happening at a sufficient level of detail to obviously

16:51

avoid future pain. I

16:53

think this is a really critical kind of hallucination

16:58

on all of our parts. Like we all kind of

17:00

saw what we wanted from this thing. Twitter

17:02

was a little bit like

17:03

Jack in that you could look into

17:05

its eyes and see whatever you wanted to see.

17:08

That's investor John Borthwick again. Some

17:11

people would look at it and say, oh God, this

17:13

is like short form email. Others

17:15

would look at it and say, this is the future

17:18

of communications. Others would look at it

17:20

and say, this is the public square. Twitter

17:23

didn't actually state what they were.

17:25

And so they could be many things

17:28

to many different people.

17:31

For a while, the Twitter board looked

17:33

into Jack Dorsey's eyes and saw a

17:35

visionary co-founder that could run a visionary

17:37

company. According to hatching Twitter,

17:40

Nick Bilton's definitive history of the company's early

17:42

days, Dorsey hadn't run anything before.

17:45

And it turned out he wasn't good at running Twitter back then.

17:47

So Twitter's board replaced him with Ev Williams,

17:50

his co-founder in 2008.

17:52

This was the beginning of a carousel of CEOs

17:54

at the company. A

17:57

lot of Twitter's early adopters lived in San Francisco

17:59

or Silicon Valley. Valley and they worked in tech.

18:02

Right behind them were journalists like Jay Wortham,

18:04

who now writes for the New York Times Magazine and hosts

18:06

the podcast Still Processing. Back

18:09

then Wortham worked at Wired.

18:11

I was a research back-checking intern, berm,

18:13

berm, berm, and you

18:16

know, I mean I think the early Twitter offices

18:18

we could see from the Wired offices,

18:20

like I think it was all in downtown San

18:22

Francisco. For Wortham,

18:24

like a lot of early users,

18:26

Twitter served as a kind of surrogate social

18:28

life.

18:29

Now I'm a little bit more of an extrovert. When

18:31

I was younger I was such an introvert. It was a much

18:33

easier way for me to talk to people, to share

18:36

about myself, to sort of learn about the world.

18:38

The thing that Twitter replicated for me

18:40

that really hooked

18:42

me was the feeling of being in an AOL

18:45

chat room and just always seeing

18:47

what people were talking about. And it's the most

18:50

intoxicating thing and they know that.

18:52

Twitter offered a chance to join the

18:54

conversation and that distinguished Twitter

18:57

from other social platforms.

18:59

Most people were not able

19:01

to share their thoughts in

19:04

real time in any meaningful way, right? And

19:06

if you're posting on Facebook, it's probably

19:08

to a very small limited group of people

19:10

that you've agreed to be quote friends with. Twitter

19:13

on the other hand, I mean, it's just a free-for-all.

19:16

So if you're someone who has any

19:18

opinion or any thoughts about

19:20

anything, all of a sudden you

19:22

have this currency that you didn't

19:24

have anywhere else and nobody could keep you

19:26

from that. It was a way

19:29

that you could be heard and seen

19:32

that we've never really experienced before.

19:35

Before long, actual bona fide

19:37

celebrities started showing up on the site

19:39

and jumping into chats with normies.

19:41

And I think that was also part of the early

19:44

intoxication, right? Like it was removing

19:47

all these barriers between people that normally

19:49

existed and that was a buy-in. I remember

19:51

this

19:52

was a rock

19:54

guy named Sebastian Bach.

19:56

The lead singer from Skid Row just joined

19:58

a conversation that was heavy. having one. So he might

20:01

even dunk down and be like, this is amazing.

20:03

I don't even care about Skid Row or Sebastian Bach,

20:05

but he's famous. He's now participating in

20:07

a conversation that I'm having. That's

20:09

wild. It's wild.

20:10

Yeah, it's wild. And I

20:13

do think in the beginning people

20:14

talked a lot about Twitter as like this

20:16

cocktail party. You never really knew who you were going to

20:18

meet. Soon some of those real life

20:21

celebrities were making pilgrimages to the Twitter

20:23

offices in San Francisco. Arnold

20:25

Schwarzenegger came by, Sean Combs,

20:28

that's Puff Daddy to me and maybe to you,

20:30

showed up and asked to become their chief marketing

20:33

officer. If there was one moment

20:35

you could point to when Twitter as celebrity magnet

20:37

really got going, it was Ashton

20:40

versus CNN. In April 2009,

20:42

the actor Ashton Kutcher

20:44

challenged CNN to a race to

20:46

be the first to count on Twitter with 1 million

20:48

followers. And the winner got

20:51

to say they were the winner. CNN

20:53

reported on the race as if it were real news,

20:56

and it became a viral story. Ashton

20:59

won, by the way. He live streamed the moment

21:02

he hit 1 million followers. The

21:04

whole freaking world is watching.

21:06

Come on, people, we can do this.

21:14

I think the fact that it was CNN versus

21:16

Ashton, it was a perfect illustration

21:18

of the flattening of the graph that

21:20

Twitter allowed. Like it was a place where you

21:23

could become famous or talk to famous people.

21:25

What's it like in the company when that

21:27

is happening? And it's you're only a couple

21:30

years out from being this is for

21:31

nerds to tell the other nerds where

21:34

they're having a margarita.

21:35

Right.

21:36

It would have been a lot more enjoyable if I

21:38

was not one of the primary people on

21:41

the hook for the thing to work. And

21:43

it fundamentally did not work

21:45

most of the time. Like the product

21:48

just didn't work. Like

21:50

it was just technically broken for

21:52

the better part of two years.

21:55

Coming up, it's Twitter versus the fail

21:57

whale. But even when the service

21:59

was up and running.

21:59

it still had an existential

22:02

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23:25

Having celebrities like Ashton Kutcher

23:27

and Oprah Winfrey sign up for Twitter was

23:29

great publicity, but

23:31

it put a ton of stress on the company's tech

23:33

infrastructure. Infrastructure that was

23:35

never designed to handle tens of millions

23:37

of users.

23:39

Just because of the nature of the way it was built

23:41

and then how we tried to scale it, it was kind

23:43

of spaghetti.

23:45

Dick Costolo came on as Twitter's chief

23:47

operating officer in 2009.

23:50

He found a platform that was constantly being

23:52

rebuilt. Twitter's code would spring

23:54

a leak, and

23:55

the Twitter people would patch it quickly but temporarily.

23:58

I mean, there was a service. in

24:00

the architecture called the Ashton Kutcher

24:02

service, which had been built when Ashton

24:04

was getting so many followers and it rerouted

24:07

fanning out the tweets to anyone who followed

24:09

Ashton Kutcher through a separate service. It was all

24:11

this tourist stuff that was like not

24:13

the right way to write code at all. Twitter

24:17

needed a stronger tech backbone. More

24:20

servers, more engineers to rebuild the plane

24:22

in mid-flight, and that was going to take

24:24

even more VC money.

24:26

In 2009, Twitter completed a funding

24:29

round that valued the company at a billion

24:31

dollars.

24:33

And here it's important to place Twitter in the

24:35

history of social networking startups. After

24:38

the first web bubble collapsed in 2000, investors

24:40

stayed far away from consumer tech.

24:43

But a few years later, there was buzz around

24:45

web startups that connected people with

24:47

each other and that relied on those users

24:49

to post for free

24:52

things other users would find interesting, and

24:54

that meant zero content costs. These

24:57

things grew fast. They didn't require much money

24:59

to start. And every year, someone

25:01

made one that was more popular. First,

25:04

there was Friendster, which got overtaken by MySpace,

25:06

which Rupert Murdoch bought for $580 million. Then

25:10

MySpace got surpassed by Facebook, which

25:13

was supposed to be worth billions. Investors

25:16

saw a pattern.

25:17

Maybe Twitter would be the next big winner. Here's

25:21

investor John Borthwick again. This

25:23

cycle that

25:25

people get into, which is expectations

25:27

following that competitor, that Facebook competitor,

25:30

raising more capital, expectations

25:32

against that, and that people are basically

25:34

chasing that tail. We want to be Facebook.

25:37

Facebook's really big. In order to get really

25:39

big, we need to hire a bunch of people. We need to raise

25:41

money to do that. And then that then ratchets

25:43

up our expectations. We have to go down that path.

25:46

Right. It wasn't crazy to expect

25:48

in 2010 or 2011 that one

25:50

day Twitter would have a bigger valuation than Facebook.

25:53

Sean Garrett became Twitter's first PR

25:55

guy around this time. Did people feel

25:57

that way inside the company? At the time.

26:00

Like, there was no reason to believe that Twitter can

26:02

be more powerful, especially in a mobile world,

26:04

than Facebook.

26:06

Twitter was growing fast.

26:08

Faster than any other online service. When

26:11

Oprah Winfrey signed up in April 2009, Twitter had

26:13

about 20 million users. A

26:16

year later, there were 100 million. Twitter

26:20

is still small compared to Facebook, but it

26:22

was catching up fast.

26:24

And even Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg

26:27

feared Twitter might beat Facebook,

26:29

or at least be a real competitor.

26:31

Zuckerberg tried to buy the company in 2008. And

26:35

after Twitter turned him down, Facebook

26:37

spent years trying to compete with Twitter. But

26:40

even if Twitter was growing faster than anything

26:42

else on the internet, there was still one

26:44

big problem with this scenario. When

26:47

Dick Costolo joined as COO

26:50

in 2009, Twitter was barely generating any

26:52

money. You don't have to be profitable

26:55

if you're a tech startup. You're supposed to be growing

26:57

at all costs. And it's okay to make

26:59

zero dollars when you start. The

27:01

generous term for this is pre-revenue.

27:04

But you do eventually have to start showing the

27:06

world how you're going to make real money someday.

27:12

Investors saw a single pathway for revenue,

27:15

selling ads. But advertising

27:17

was never a great fit for Twitter, according

27:19

to John Borthwick.

27:21

The nature of the real-time web is

27:23

that it makes it incredibly hard

27:25

to, if not impossible, to

27:27

be able to target intentful behavior.

27:30

And so the most lucrative

27:32

forms of advertising that we've seen on the internet

27:35

are ones where people basically are placing

27:37

intent into a search engine.

27:39

You want to buy a foldable kayak? So

27:41

you type foldable kayak into

27:43

Google. Then Google serves you ads for

27:46

foldable kayaks. That is the best ad

27:48

business ever.

27:50

The second best business is Facebook's ad business.

27:53

You

27:53

have billions of users who tell you a lot

27:55

about what they like and care about, and you can maybe guess

27:57

that they're interested in foldable kayaks.

28:00

Google and Facebook are marvels

28:02

of modern advertising and they are money printing

28:04

machines. But Twitter didn't

28:06

have the, I would like to buy this thing now feature

28:09

that's built into Google,

28:10

and it didn't have Facebook scale.

28:12

Twitter's investors wanted this revenue

28:15

model. The founders, including CEO

28:17

of Williams, were not so sure. Remember,

28:19

Williams had founded Blogger and sold it to

28:21

Google, the world's biggest

28:24

advertising company. Here's Jason Goldman

28:26

again. We did have ambivalence about

28:28

it. I would say that as ambivalence about

28:30

it is one of the things that primarily got him fired

28:33

at the end of 2010. This

28:35

was Twitter's second leadership change in

28:37

two years. It replaced Williams

28:40

with Costolo, who had been Twitter's COO. Like

28:43

Williams, Costolo had built an early web

28:45

business and sold it to Google. Unlike

28:47

Williams, he was actually focused on making

28:50

money. We just raised money at a billion

28:52

dollar valuation. We got to start taking

28:54

it seriously as a business. But Twitter

28:56

didn't want to rely on banner ads, which were the

28:58

standard format at the time. The

29:01

ad networks, specifically

29:03

Google's and Facebook's ads, were

29:05

mostly what you would consider

29:07

in the right-hand rail and the sort of demilitarized

29:10

zone of content on the web.

29:12

In the middle of your screen, you had a feed

29:15

on the top and on the right rail, you had ads.

29:17

And that works okay on a laptop.

29:19

On mobile, of course, there is

29:22

no right rail, there's the feed.

29:24

If you use Twitter at all in the last 10 years,

29:26

or really any app that has a feed,

29:29

you know the solution.

29:30

Put the ads in the feed.

29:32

So the ad is a tweet. And it can

29:34

be replied to, it can be retweeted, it can be

29:37

favorited, et cetera. Then we can

29:39

have a set of tweets that are content

29:41

tweets and some tweets that are ad tweets, and the

29:43

ad tweets we can insert into the feed. And the ads

29:45

are content. The ads are content, and those

29:47

were the first in-feed ads. This

29:50

is hard to remember now that every ad

29:52

is part of the feed,

29:54

but at the time, promoted tweets really were

29:56

something different.

29:57

They were a new solution to the problem of how to get...

30:00

ads in front of eyeballs and they worked.

30:03

So much so that Facebook and later Instagram

30:05

and everyone else did exactly

30:07

the same thing. So

30:09

Twitter was finally making a little bit of

30:11

money but if it wanted to make real

30:14

Facebook sized money it was gonna have to

30:16

keep growing at a crazy pace and

30:19

that was no longer happening. At

30:21

the beginning of 2009 Twitter was growing faster than anything

30:24

else on the internet

30:26

but by the end of that year it had already begun

30:28

leveling off. The company was having

30:30

to work harder and harder to find new people to

30:32

sign up.

30:33

This it turns out may be the most existential

30:36

Twitter question of them all.

30:38

What if this thing just isn't that interesting

30:41

to most people? So

30:43

why wasn't Twitter for everyone? Let's

30:45

start with the obvious. To make a tweet you

30:48

have to write something and for a lot

30:50

of people

30:51

writing is no fun.

30:52

Twitter is really hard to use.

30:55

Jay Wirtham loved it but Wirtham is a writer

30:57

and most people aren't.

30:58

For all the supposed simplicity

31:01

of the service you just make an

31:03

account and you can write whatever you want it's really

31:06

hard to figure out what works. Like if you're

31:08

just tweeting any thought that comes

31:10

into your head it's not really gonna

31:13

probably land.

31:15

Wirtham is describing this from the perspective

31:17

of someone who wants to share stuff on the internet.

31:20

Just like Twitter's earliest employees and users

31:22

those people assume most people would

31:25

feel the same way.

31:26

Jason Goldman again.

31:28

When we did blogger we fully

31:30

thought that everyone was gonna have a blog. So then

31:32

when we do Twitter I'm like everyone's gonna do

31:34

this. Like this is clearly gonna be the one that everyone

31:36

does because it's short. It's even more seductive

31:38

than blogs. Like you know you could just say I'm

31:40

eating a taco everyone's gonna do this.

31:43

It turns out not everyone's gonna do this. Not

31:45

everyone wants to be a content creator.

31:47

There are some people who really do

31:50

want to be content creators.

31:52

Like journalists who famously like the sound

31:54

of their own voice. Who love getting likes

31:56

and retweets from their peers even more. Or

31:59

like certain celebrities.

31:59

or politicians who imagined they

32:02

could use Twitter to interact directly with fans

32:04

and followers

32:05

or, eventually, a rocket

32:07

company CEO with a bottomless supply

32:10

of takes and means. These folks

32:12

were the super users, the top 10%

32:14

of Twitterers

32:15

who wound up producing 80% of the content

32:17

on the site.

32:18

And gradually, Twitter accepted that reality

32:21

and landed on the idea that Twitter was a great

32:23

place to read other people's tweets,

32:25

even if you didn't want to write them yourself.

32:28

But the next problem was getting the right tweets in front

32:30

of you when you first tried Twitter so

32:32

you could see how great it could be.

32:35

Here's Michael Sippy, who is VP

32:37

of Product under Costolo.

32:39

If you're following the right people, it can be a magical

32:41

product. It can be a ton of fun. But

32:45

coming in, it

32:46

takes a lot of work

32:48

to actually get that follow

32:50

graph correct. And so we spent a lot

32:52

of time and a lot of technology to

32:55

essentially help you tune that initial

32:58

set of accounts that you would follow. And

33:01

that meant a bunch of different hypotheses

33:03

that we had. One is like, well, we

33:05

should do things like Facebook. It's a social

33:07

network. So let's go scrape your address

33:10

book and make sure that there are friends that are there.

33:12

And you can go find. The problem is that

33:15

we did not have the density of Facebook or the

33:17

growth of Facebook. So like your friends weren't

33:19

posting enough and then that's not good enough.

33:22

And if in your first

33:25

hour, day, three days

33:27

of usage, you're not finding value in the

33:30

product and you're not willing to put in the work to go

33:32

find those people to follow, you're

33:34

going to churn.

33:36

Churn is a term you hear a lot

33:38

when you talk to Twitter veterans about the company's

33:40

problems. Churn is when someone tries

33:42

your service and then leaves. And Twitter

33:45

had a lot of churn. And

33:47

for a long time, Twitter acted like it couldn't afford

33:49

to care about churn. It had to care about growing.

33:52

Here's Jason Golden. I think we were too

33:54

focused for too long on growth. And

33:57

this is during the era where growth hacking

33:59

became. a concept and

34:01

this idea that you just needed to get more people in the

34:03

top of the funnel and pay

34:06

less attention to the churn that

34:08

is happening when people bounce out because they simply

34:10

don't get it. There's a pretty good chance that

34:12

you've used Twitter because you're

34:14

listening to this podcast about Twitter. But

34:17

most people have never tried Twitter and

34:19

lots of those who have don't stick around. It's

34:21

so hard to get them to come back. That's

34:23

Michael Sippy again, the former head of product.

34:26

You can get kind of occasional use of a product,

34:29

right? So you'll hear people like, well, I'm

34:31

really only on Twitter during the NBA finals because

34:34

that's when it gets fun. I'll come on for

34:36

the Olympics. I'll come on for the World Cup. I'll come on

34:38

for the elections because that's my interest area

34:40

and that's what it is. Twitter

34:43

did try to make itself more appealing to new

34:45

users and to make it stickier for the ones

34:47

that showed up. And when you look back at Twitter's

34:49

history, there is a long list of kudawudda

34:52

shuddas. It cost a lot

34:54

of big idea was to make Twitter more like

34:57

Facebook. Everyone loves to go to Facebook and

34:59

look at their friend's photos. That's like a massive

35:01

use case. We don't have media at all. Twitter

35:03

needed photos. And in 2010,

35:06

2011, the best place to find photos

35:09

after Facebook was Instagram,

35:11

the super buzzy photo sharing app. We

35:14

had talked to them about buying them before

35:16

I was CEO. And then when I was CEO

35:19

in February 2012, we tried to buy

35:21

them aggressively. We

35:24

couldn't convince them to do it.

35:26

A few months later, Mark Zuckerberg convinced

35:28

the Instagram team to sell to Facebook instead

35:31

for a billion dollars. This

35:32

is a humongous amount of money at the time.

35:35

Twitter did end up buying Vine, an app that

35:37

showed looping six second clips. It

35:40

was intriguing, but no one at Twitter knew exactly

35:42

what to do with it. Michael Sippy.

35:45

How do we take Vine technology and put it

35:47

into the Twitter product and what's that mix and

35:49

how does that work and what does distribution look like and

35:51

how much Twitter branding is there on Vine?

35:53

All of those conversations, I think drove that

35:56

team nuts.

35:57

become

36:00

TikTok, the most powerful entertainment

36:03

app today. But by the end of 2016,

36:05

Snapchat and Instagram had eaten Vine's

36:08

lunch, and Twitter closed it down.

36:11

Twitter tried other ways to build out the platform,

36:13

to give people other stuff to do besides

36:15

writing and reading tweets.

36:17

It launched Periscope, a live video

36:19

service. It launched its own music service,

36:22

except it wasn't really what users wanted out

36:24

of a music service because it didn't really play music.

36:27

You're supposed to use it to follow musicians

36:29

or something,

36:29

there was lots of talk about turning Twitter into a place

36:32

where you could buy and sell stuff.

36:34

To Costolo though, the big one that got away

36:36

is always gonna be Instagram.

36:39

Do you replay like the coulda woulda,

36:41

like what happens if Twitter dies? I

36:43

think we would have won. The fact

36:45

that they had built this just gorgeous,

36:48

beautiful photo sharing application

36:50

that was becoming the dominant photo sharing

36:53

application, which is why we wanted to buy it

36:55

and why Mark did buy it. And we

36:57

owned, if you will, the text space

37:00

and would go on to acquire Vine, which

37:03

was number one in the app store for weeks

37:05

and weeks and weeks right before Instagram launched video

37:07

and sort of knocked it out, would

37:10

have been positioned to have these three apps that are

37:12

perfectly suited to their media types.

37:14

We just didn't get Instagram. And that

37:17

probably would have changed the course of the internet in

37:19

some important way. Maybe,

37:24

or maybe none of those features really mattered. People who were on Facebook wanted

37:26

to use Facebook, not

37:29

Twitter. In 2009, Zuckerberg

37:32

had been so freaked out by Twitter that he wanted

37:34

to own it or bury it. But

37:37

eventually Zuckerberg and crew learned

37:39

to stop worrying about Twitter. In

37:42

Nick Bilton's book, Hatching Twitter, Zuckerberg

37:44

describes Twitter's team as lucky incompetence.

37:48

It's as if they drove a clown car into a

37:50

car into a gold mine and fell

37:52

in.

37:53

This wasn't a unique assessment and

37:56

there's a lot of evidence that supports it. Take

37:58

Twitter's CEO musical chairs. For instance,

38:00

in the 15 years before Elon Musk

38:02

bought the company, Twitter had five

38:05

different CEOs, two of whom were

38:07

Jack Dorsey. Lots of startups

38:09

swap out leaders at different times, but

38:11

that's the kind of instability that indicates the company

38:14

fundamentally can't decide what it should

38:16

be.

38:18

To be fair,

38:20

Twitter did make it to an IPO

38:22

in 2013, where Twitter's private

38:24

shares turned into public stock and made tons

38:26

of money for its investors and its early employees.

38:29

But ever since then, Twitter's stock lurched

38:31

and stalled as various managers tried

38:34

unsuccessfully to convince Wall

38:36

Street that Twitter was going to be the next Facebook.

38:39

Twitter did build an ad

38:41

business worth nearly $5 billion a year.

38:44

That sounds like a lot

38:45

until you compare it to Facebook, which

38:47

does $113 billion a year, or Google, which does $224 billion.

38:56

Another reason Elon Musk could buy Twitter

38:58

in 2022 is that unlike tech companies

39:01

like Facebook and Google and Snap, the

39:03

founders didn't control the company's stock, so

39:06

they couldn't fend off an unwanted buyer.

39:09

But the main reason is that Twitter had been public

39:11

for nearly a decade and investors didn't care

39:14

about it anymore.

39:15

They'd heard Twitter's story over and over

39:17

and they weren't buying it. So when the

39:19

world's richest man showed up and wanted to pay

39:22

way more than Wall Street thought it was worth, they

39:25

had no choice but to take the deal. So

39:29

let's spell this out. Deciding

39:31

to take venture money,

39:33

deciding to be an ad business,

39:35

deciding to compare yourself to Facebook

39:37

and losing out on that comparison,

39:40

those are all decisions that led to the real-life

39:42

scenario where Elon Musk owns Twitter.

39:45

And why should we care about what happens

39:47

to Twitter? Objectively speaking,

39:50

it's a tiny company compared to real tech

39:52

giants.

39:53

But...

39:54

Twitter, for better or for worse, has completely

39:57

shaped and participated

39:59

in a conversation for the last 10 years,

40:02

you know, and probably will for the next 10 years. And

40:05

I think that alone is worth just looking

40:07

at. Like, what is this thing that had

40:10

so much power in shaping national

40:12

politics, from elections to social

40:14

movements to even our understanding of

40:16

gun violence? I mean, Twitter has played a massive

40:18

role in that, and there's no denying it.

40:21

This series is called Land of the Giants.

40:23

But Twitter was never a giant, not

40:26

by market cap, not by user numbers. But

40:28

it could exert an influence totally disproportionate

40:31

to its size or its value. Figuring

40:34

out how exactly Twitter commanded that

40:36

power, and what exactly that

40:38

influence was,

40:40

those are questions that have flummoxed a lot of smart

40:42

people. And that's why we're here, to

40:45

try our best to provide some answers. Because

40:47

there is one thing I'm certain about. Twitter,

40:50

for all its flaws and in all its glory,

40:53

could only exist in a certain time, and that

40:55

time is winding down.

40:58

So while it's still here, let's talk about why

41:00

Twitter mattered,

41:01

and what that tells us about what comes

41:04

next.

41:17

Audio clips from AlgaeZero, the TED

41:20

conference, South by Southwest, and Marketplace.

41:23

Land of the Giants, the Twitter fantasy, is

41:25

a production of Vox and the Vox Media

41:28

Podcast Network.

41:29

Matt Frasica is our lead producer. Alua

41:32

Kemi, Alade Sui is our producer. Megan

41:35

Koonane is our editor. Charlotte

41:37

Silver is our fact checker. Brandon

41:39

McFarland composed the show's theme and engineered

41:42

the episode. Art Chung is our showrunner.

41:44

Shach Kurwa is our executive producer. I'm

41:47

Peter Kofke. If you like this episode, as

41:49

always, please share it. Follow the show

41:52

by clicking the plus sign in your podcast

41:54

app.

41:58

Mint Mobile

42:00

for their support. Paying high prices

42:03

for traditional wireless plans does not feel

42:05

great. What's worse is

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dealing with the hidden fees on top of that.

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42:18

And every plan comes with unlimited talk

42:20

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42:23

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42:35

slash Giants. That's MintMobile.com

42:38

slash Giants. Cut your wireless bill

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to $15 a month at MintMobile.com

42:45

slash Giants.

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