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1:33

Fair. Hello

1:41

and welcome to Little Gold Men, the

1:43

award season podcast from Vanity Fair. I

1:46

am delighted and proud to introduce

1:48

him as Academy Award

1:50

winner. And the Oscar goes to.

1:54

The winner. It's a tie. little

2:00

girl, but you can't

2:02

speak from the telly you never know. My

2:05

little girl, I just

2:07

want an Oscar. I

2:17

am Katie Rich. I'm here for this, our final

2:19

episode before the 96 Academy Awards with Richard Lawson.

2:22

Hello. With David Canfield.

2:24

Hello. And with Cara Warner. Hello.

2:27

This is our Predictions episode.

2:29

We are going to put our heads together

2:31

and predict what will win all of the Oscars on

2:33

Sunday night. David and

2:35

Cara and I wrote our predictions at bf.com. You

2:37

can read those as well, although I don't think

2:39

it's a spoiler because sometimes we disagree with each

2:41

other, as I think you might hear in

2:44

the conversation ahead. But before

2:46

we dive in, I did want to say thank

2:48

you so much to everyone who submitted their voice

2:50

memos about their Oscar viewing traditions. Hopefully you listened

2:52

to Tuesday's episode in which we played a lot

2:54

of those. There were a lot that came in

2:57

that we just didn't have time to include. We

2:59

recorded too early. But we've listened

3:01

to all of them. They are really delightful. Richard, you and

3:03

I were kind of watching the emails come in together, and

3:05

our listeners are just great, and I wanted to say that

3:07

on the air too. Not to encourage

3:09

like an onslaught of email, but we see

3:12

every email. And

3:14

we read them and we listen to them. And

3:16

we are delighted by them. And then also

3:18

thank you to everyone who's participating in our Oscar pool.

3:21

Go check that link on Sunday night. You'll be able

3:23

to see your standings update live. I

3:26

will certainly be checking it. I haven't made my picks

3:28

as I record this. So if you have the link,

3:30

if you're signed up and haven't made your picks, please

3:32

do that. And if you received

3:34

a leak and you haven't clicked it yet, sorry, we're full.

3:37

We would really like to expand it next year.

3:40

Really, the response has been fantastic. So those of

3:42

you who are joining us, feel lucky. You got a

3:44

spot that not everybody did. And hopefully you can join

3:47

us on Sunday night. And if you

3:49

see a predictor named test case, that's me, and I

3:51

can't figure out how to change my name. What

3:55

is my name? I don't even know. It's

3:57

a test case too. I'll

4:00

go back and check and see if I can help you out. But

4:03

when you win and you won't be allowed to

4:05

win, that way test case can win and make off

4:07

with all the rest. That's how I do. I do

4:09

a lot of scams that way. Yeah.

4:12

Okay. On with the

4:14

predictions part of the episode. As

4:18

usual, I think in years past we started

4:20

with the shorts because of course we discussed them in

4:22

depth a couple weeks ago. So

4:25

we can go through them fairly quickly. I

4:27

think we tried to make some predictions about

4:29

what we thought would win when we discussed

4:31

these. And the only one I

4:33

remember feeling fairly certain about was best documentary

4:35

short. I feel so pretty

4:37

strong that the last repair shop is going to

4:39

be the winner here. So I feel like someone

4:42

disagreed when we had this conversation. Do you

4:44

guys remember? Well, Kara and I thought Nai

4:46

Nai and Waipo would win maybe. But

4:49

I've read one of those anonymous ballots

4:52

and they picked the last repair shop. So I'm like,

4:54

okay. The motor told me they're voting for last repair

4:56

shop. That's going to win. Beware

4:59

of the anonymous ballots if anyone remembers my

5:01

Penelope Cruz prediction from a few years ago.

5:04

Yeah, that was based on more than just the

5:06

anonymous ballots. It was, but there are so many

5:08

that have Penelope Cruz and parallel mailers. I agree

5:10

though, Katie, I think the last repair shop is

5:14

just the most well-rounded, particularly in terms of

5:16

what they look for in this category. It's

5:19

always hard to predict because we're often wrong,

5:22

but it just felt like a winner to me. Nai

5:24

and Waipo, well, one of my personal

5:26

favorites in the category, it just

5:29

feels a tad slight for how

5:32

they tend to vote here. I

5:35

think if anything, they would probably go with an

5:37

ABCs of book banning or something like that if

5:39

they went in another direction. So I think it's

5:42

issue-driven from someone from a peer in Sheila Nevins

5:45

that may be a little drier, but

5:47

still feels important. Yeah, I felt like

5:49

you both did a great job of convincing

5:52

me my initial instinct was maybe not correct

5:54

because I don't know the history of the category.

5:57

But Last but not least, my favorite.

6:00

hearing that you guys said, well, you know, they look for

6:02

an actual full arc of

6:04

a story and they love something in LA. So

6:07

they do. They really do. I'm

6:09

comfortable with that one. David,

6:11

you wrote our predictions for Best Animated Short, which I

6:13

don't think I had realized how tough of a choice

6:16

it was until I kind of watched you wrestle

6:18

with what you considered the top two contenders. Maybe

6:20

I'll let you kind of explain the stakes there.

6:23

A study in extremes. Yeah,

6:27

I was between Letter to a Pig,

6:29

which is very arty and

6:32

ambiguous and confusing

6:35

at times and War

6:37

is Over inspired by the music of John and

6:39

Yoko to give it the full name, which

6:42

is none of those things. And

6:45

I think fits into a certain niche

6:48

of slightly

6:51

saccharine, slightly overbearing,

6:55

short winners. But

6:57

Letter to a Pig also has the theme of

6:59

the Holocaust as pretty central

7:02

to it. And as

7:04

we've seen with the Academy, that can

7:07

implore a little bit more attention

7:09

being to be paid. And so

7:11

I do think that in

7:14

this case, because it is

7:16

also a very thoughtfully and

7:18

intricately made short, that

7:20

that could take it over the top. But I

7:22

think I'm not confident in that. I

7:24

think War is Over is going to take it just

7:26

because you had said that the whole Academy, the voting

7:29

body can vote on this one, right? And

7:31

I think people that maybe didn't

7:33

see them, if they see John

7:35

and Yoko, maybe they have warm feelings and

7:38

are like, oh, they should win. But who knows?

7:40

I agree. That's a decent point. If they even if

7:42

they didn't watch them, they're just like, I like them. Let's do

7:44

it. I agree with you, Kara. I

7:47

have to diverge from our official selections

7:49

on this one. I

7:51

think I'm set up. I mean, after the Kobe

7:53

Bryant thing, one, you are, I just don't like

7:55

they just they like celebrity. They

7:57

like easy kind of sentiment. Letter to a

7:59

Pig. Pig is beautifully made and

8:02

in blending, I believe,

8:05

actual video footage and animation and

8:07

it's really interesting. But Wars

8:10

Over looks like a Pixar movie. It's

8:12

a very easy message of war is

8:14

bad and then you have the celebrity names at

8:16

the end. I think I'm

8:18

also going to go with Wars Over for the, I don't

8:20

want to be cynical because I don't like it. It's not a

8:22

cynical movie for all the things that you can say about it.

8:26

But yeah, I think the boy and

8:28

the pig and the fox and

8:30

the mole and the boy, there's

8:32

no hair in that one, whatever that one was. We

8:37

want to use that as a model. I think that's

8:39

a safer one to go with. Yeah. Sorry,

8:42

David. You can be smug and right.

8:44

Who knows? Yeah, I'm going to be

8:46

smug, pretentious and hopefully right. I'm

8:48

not sick with letter to a page. Well,

8:52

Cara, you took over writing for live action

8:54

short and wrestled with someone who's

8:56

been accused of being smug and pretentious, but

8:58

I would argue it's not, which is Wes

9:00

Anderson, who is a... My peer. It's

9:02

definitely a couple of celebrity names in this

9:05

category. He's definitely the biggest one and you

9:07

predicted he might win it all. Yes.

9:10

When I went back and kind of dug into, I

9:12

didn't realize how many times he's actually been

9:15

nominated and so I think this is a

9:17

case where people, especially maybe because

9:19

the voting body is like, well, we

9:22

don't love, love his features enough to

9:24

give it an Oscar, but he

9:26

made a short film and it's charming.

9:28

So I think he's

9:30

going to get an Oscar here, even though I agree

9:32

with our favorite and out of fortune was a

9:35

tremendous live action short. That was very

9:37

moving and had some surprises, which I

9:39

really loved. And

9:41

then one thing about the Wes Anderson is it

9:45

was fun to kind of dig into his history. He

9:47

kind of started with a live action

9:49

short, debuted at Sundance in

9:51

1993, Bottle Rocket. So

9:53

I thought that was a fun little tidbit. I'm like, oh, you know, kind of

9:56

full circle. If he's... Yeah. If

9:58

he came onto the scene with a short, the... people did love.

10:01

He can win an Oscar for one. Yeah. I

10:04

do feel like the cynical choice in this

10:06

category is the after. It's backed by Netflix.

10:08

It's got a big stir in it and

10:10

David O'Yellowo. It's kind of sad and emotionally

10:13

pummeling in a way that things

10:15

often tend to be in winners. Like Henry

10:17

Sugar is a very elaborate, is so technically

10:19

accomplished, but it what it's about

10:21

is like, I don't know what is it about? Like

10:23

you can weigh your money if you get the chance.

10:25

What is it about? Sometimes that can be a challenge.

10:27

I think I would, I think I will predict Henry

10:29

Sugar for myself as well because I don't want to

10:31

be cynical in this case, even though I was in

10:33

the other ones. But the after

10:36

would maybe be the smarter money, but

10:38

I'm torn. I don't think that, I

10:40

don't think you're cynical though. Like I don't

10:42

think that's a cynical choice, right? People do love

10:45

a more famous actor emoting in a short

10:48

song. I don't think that's too cynical. I

10:50

predicted Night of Fortune because maybe

10:52

that was more hope-dicting I guess.

10:55

But in that one anonymous palette

10:57

that I've read, they

10:59

brought up an interesting point which is that the

11:01

short film categories are viewed by some as a

11:04

launching pad for new filmmakers and that Wes

11:06

Anderson doesn't really belong there because he's very

11:09

established. You know, you think about

11:11

filmmakers who have won shorts in the past.

11:13

David Frankel, director of Devil Wears Product, is an

11:15

Oscar winner for a short film. I

11:19

know I was thinking maybe they would want

11:21

to go with that. So maybe the after

11:23

is a better pick because it's English language.

11:25

But Night of Fortune is the one, as

11:27

we talked about on our shorts episode, like

11:29

it's the most complete film I think of

11:31

the five. So I'm saying

11:33

that they're gonna choose artistry over

11:36

anything else and vote that. It's

11:39

an unusual dynamic for this category. I

11:41

mean I would also predict Henry Sugar

11:43

just because it is in

11:45

such a league of its own among this group

11:48

for many reasons. But it's interesting because I think

11:50

we all have different alternates. Like I feel like

11:52

Red, White, and Blue is the

11:55

film that would make

11:57

the most sense as an upset because it is the

11:59

most... clearly issue-driven and the

12:02

clearest kind of counter programming to Henry

12:05

Sugar. We've talked a lot about the

12:08

Academy's relationship with history,

12:11

with opinion of Wes Anderson.

12:14

And this is an interesting test of that for a

12:16

number of reasons. This one might

12:18

be of the shorts, the one I'm most

12:20

interested to see what actually triumphs. Like it's

12:22

not even ... I mean, obviously,

12:24

if Wes Anderson wins an Oscar, it'll be a moment

12:26

of celebration. And thank God it's on the telecast this

12:28

year. Something like when Risa Med won his Oscar in

12:31

Live Ocean Short and nobody saw it happen. And

12:34

then if he doesn't, it'll be very interesting to see what they go for

12:36

instead. Okay, we'll

12:38

move on to Best Original Score. I

12:40

wrote our prediction for this, but I'm

12:43

imagining you guys will agree with me that

12:45

Ludwig Gorinson will win his second Oscar for

12:47

Best Original Score for Oppenheimer. Do

12:51

I need to make my case? Does that score ever

12:53

stop? I mean, it's the whole movie. I

12:55

mean, same with editing though, and we'll get to that too.

12:58

The experience of Oppenheimer is being kind of like

13:01

strung along on this like unbroken narrative

13:03

with the editing and the score kind

13:05

of working in concert together. You really can't

13:07

imagine the movie working without both of those

13:09

things. Yeah. I mean, this is

13:12

... I'm a huge movie score nerd. And

13:15

this is ... I mean, I'm still

13:17

psyched Laura Carpman got a nomination here

13:19

because that score is really lovely.

13:22

And yeah, it's a great category. John Williams

13:24

has not won as many Oscars as we think he has.

13:27

Was it five? Yeah,

13:29

just five in the Oscar's

13:31

category. I think he's been nominated

13:33

over 20 times, at least. I got

13:35

in the way of John Williams' facts better. John

13:38

Williams has been nominated more than you think because

13:40

they split it up into like comedy and drama

13:42

score for a while. And he's got some song

13:45

nominations. It's a lot of nominations. I think

13:47

he's the most nominated person, right? I think

13:49

it's like he's about to catch up to

13:51

Walt Disney maybe. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, you're right.

13:53

Go for it, John. Yeah, but

13:56

this is great. All these, you know, worthwhile

13:58

scores to listen to, but yes. Yes, you're,

14:00

aren't we? We, you, we're all right. Yeah.

14:03

I was fascinating learning about Jerskin Senderix, the composer of

14:05

Poor Things, when writing up this blurb. He's just like

14:08

an English musician who's been in a bunch of bands.

14:10

This is the first time he's ever done the score

14:12

for a movie. It's

14:14

just fascinating to see him next to John Williams, who's

14:16

written the most iconic movie scores of

14:19

the last 50 years. Right. And

14:21

then you're... Oh, sorry, I got to head, Kara. No, I was

14:23

going to say, Jerskin, am I pronouncing? I mean... Not

14:26

a clue. I do not know that. I don't

14:28

know his name, need to learn how to pronounce it. But

14:31

he also, interestingly, composed all the

14:33

music before they even shot the movie.

14:36

That is interesting. Jerskin Senderix represented

14:38

District 5 in The Last Hunger Games.

14:41

Yeah. Sorry, that is a Suzanne

14:43

Collins sounding name, isn't it? It

14:46

really is. You're right. One

14:52

last thing, though, is that Robbie Robertson, who got a

14:54

posthumous nomination for his score for Killers with the Flower

14:56

Moon, you can imagine in a different

14:58

kind of race there being so much sentimental

15:01

power behind this, his collaboration with Scorsese went on

15:03

for so long, you watch The Last Waltz in

15:05

your heart, just kind of breaks a million pieces,

15:07

knowing it's the beginning of this long friendship. And

15:10

the score for Killers with the Flower Moon is really

15:12

fantastic. I don't think that will be enough for him

15:14

to beat something as powerful as the Oppenheimer score, but

15:16

I'm glad it's getting a moment all the same. Okay,

15:20

David, you took on my real beloved

15:22

category original song. I was very generous

15:25

in letting you write about the contenders this

15:27

year. Well, maybe not so much to spend

15:29

this year. Well, I guess that's the question, right?

15:31

It's boiling down to two Barbie songs, and we kind

15:33

of feel like we know where this is headed. But

15:36

do you think there's any possibility for a surprise there? I

15:40

don't. I think this is one case

15:42

where you're not going to see

15:44

votes splitting. You're going to see Barbie just

15:46

at the top of the ticket, top two.

15:51

I'm sure I'm just, Ken will get

15:53

some support, but what

15:55

was I made for is just on another level. It

15:58

has one... Pop Grammy,

16:00

which is very unusual for movie

16:02

songs. It won Best Song. It's

16:05

become the sort of emotional anthem of

16:07

the movie right alongside Dua Lipa's song

16:10

in the more fun category. So

16:12

it just feels like, especially

16:15

since Barbie has lost some seam outside

16:17

of this category, that this is the

16:19

place. It will be honored. It is

16:21

a great song. You

16:23

mentioned Robbie Robertson. I

16:26

am a huge fan of Killers of the Flower

16:28

Moon. I've been generally bummed that

16:30

it's just faded so much outside of Best

16:32

Actress. But a song for my

16:34

people, I'm so thrilled it's nominated here. And I

16:36

feel like it will be a real

16:39

moment on the telecast. And in another year, I

16:42

think it could have had a not to not to

16:44

ask run because it's a

16:47

really powerful song and one that

16:50

I think signals the unique contributions made

16:52

to that movie that came in a

16:54

little bit later in the development process.

16:57

Yeah, we're going to get a lot of good performance. There's

16:59

gonna be a lot of good performances, I think. John Batiste

17:01

is an incredible performer. I assume Diane Warren

17:04

will be on stage with Becky G to perform

17:06

the play. And Hot Songs usually is... The idea

17:08

of Becky G hit the hot curse was so wild.

17:11

With Diane Warren. With Diane Warren. Side

17:13

by side. And I assume, if it was

17:15

a while where I thought they might open the show with I'm Just

17:17

Ken, I now think they're going to save it for as long as

17:19

possible and make everyone keep watching for I'm Just

17:21

Ken. That's my official connection. That's actually smart.

17:23

What will open? What was

17:25

I made for? I don't remember in recent

17:27

memory like a song from a movie sort of

17:30

becoming so ubiquitous so quickly. I

17:33

also love it. I am such a sucker

17:35

for this song. I think it's just gorgeous

17:37

poetry. It makes you feel the feels in

17:40

as many cliched ways as it is.

17:43

And I can't believe that Billy and Finney as young as

17:45

they are can just do what

17:47

they do. Wait a second, Walker. I

17:49

think they should... You know, the first one is going to

17:51

not look as good in retrospect.

17:53

This is one they should win for. It's a

17:56

great win. Diane Word's going to say, oh, it's

17:58

great that these 20-some things have won. It

18:00

was a competitive Oscar. It's

18:02

exciting. Well, especially because

18:04

they won for Spectre and beat out

18:06

Limo La Miranda for the wronging conte

18:08

song. We talked about that at length.

18:11

But the fact that Limo La Miranda doesn't have an Oscar is

18:13

going to get weirder and weirder as the years go by. So

18:15

it would just be so easy if we could just swap all

18:17

that out. Yeah. Also, Mark

18:20

Ronson already has an Oscar for Shallow. So

18:22

it's not like he's losing, but I would vote

18:24

for I'm Just Ken any day

18:26

of the week. Yeah, I think if people are

18:28

considering putting Just Ken on their ballots, the

18:31

one metric to maybe look at is that the

18:33

comedy songs rarely win. They get

18:35

nominated, they perform, blame Canada at the Oscars,

18:37

but it doesn't win. You know, that's

18:39

true. Hey,

18:44

everybody, it's Paul Scheer and Amy Nicholson. And we

18:46

host the movie podcast Unspooled, where we

18:48

are exploring the most regarded films of

18:50

all time. That's right. And

18:52

we are going to be looking specifically at the Oscars. That's right. We

18:55

are looking back at best picture winners

18:57

like Amadeus, Sting, American Beauty and Birdman.

19:00

Yeah, Birdman won a Best Picture Oscar.

19:02

Birdman won a Best Picture Oscar. That's

19:04

the newest one. I completely forgot. Plus,

19:07

right before this year's Oscars, we'll be doing

19:09

a preview episode discussing all of the nominated

19:11

movies. That's right. So listen

19:13

to it all on Unspooled, wherever you get your podcast. This

19:17

episode of Little Gold Men is

19:19

brought to you by MUBI, a

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curated streaming service dedicated to elevating

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now, they have a film collection for

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Performers We Love, and they are highlighting

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one of this year's Oscar frontrunners,

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Lily Gladstone. So

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I am here with David Canfield to talk

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about how much we love Lily Gladstone and

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especially her film that is now on MUBI,

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Certain Women. David, fond memories there. Fond

19:58

memories. What an introduction. knew

20:00

who she was before that film, but

20:02

it's quite a thing to be in a

20:05

Kelly Rijkart film with Michelle Williams, Kristen Stewart,

20:07

and Laura Dern and completely steal it. And

20:09

now we're talking about it to this day.

20:12

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20:32

Okay, on to production design. Speaking of Barbie

20:34

and where it stands in the race, I

20:36

mean in our, David and Kara and I,

20:38

we did a rundown of the races that

20:41

are so close and we lumped together costume

20:43

and production design because it is in many

20:45

ways poor things versus Barbie and both. But

20:47

let's talk about them separately. Kara,

20:49

you wrote up our production design predictions. What

20:52

are the stakes here? I mean, we

20:54

use the word wrestled and this one

20:57

I really am struggling with because poor

21:00

things has won, I think,

21:02

more of the precursors and it

21:04

is a gorgeously designed

21:06

film. Unique, gorgeous, but

21:09

Barbie. I mean, I just

21:12

want Barbie to win more Oscars than Vessong.

21:16

And I, you know, I think

21:18

in chatting with you all, this

21:20

one, the projected winner here, I leaned a

21:22

little into what I want and hope for

21:25

that Barbie does win. But

21:27

I just hesitated just because poor things is

21:29

really beloved, especially in the craft

21:32

categories. So, yeah, I'm struggling with

21:34

this one. Yeah,

21:36

my brain is telling me it's going to

21:38

be poor things and my heart is telling

21:41

me it's going to be Barbie. So

21:43

I'm right there with you, Kara. The

21:46

math ain't math for Barbie right now.

21:49

Poor things won with the

21:51

Art Directors Guild over Barbie.

21:54

And I feel like Barbie is more of a guild

21:56

movie than Poor Things. So that probably shouldn't have happened

21:58

if it were going to win the Oscars. and

22:00

poor things also in the BAFTA, which we talked about

22:03

a lot, poor things really performed well there. But

22:06

there is something about, something

22:08

about Barbie as a particularly

22:11

American phenomenon, there

22:13

is something in the back of my head that says it

22:15

will do a little bit better at the Oscars and does

22:17

at other awards shows. And that may be very naive. But

22:21

this feels like the category where

22:23

the work was so brilliant and

22:26

so visible, you know, just in

22:28

the marketing alone, that I

22:30

think it could win. I really do. And

22:34

I kind of hope it does. It feels like it's just

22:36

such an iconic, it was

22:38

kind of the look of the movies, right? In

22:40

many ways last year. But again,

22:42

it's just, it hasn't gone its way so

22:44

far. So logically, it

22:46

feels kind of foolish to predict it.

22:48

But that's where I am right now. I feel

22:50

like this is a place where it could surprise. Yeah,

22:53

one other aspect of the argument I added with

22:55

our predictions is just, was

22:57

there anything more delightful than

22:59

the switch from

23:02

Barbie's Dreamhouse to the Mojo Dojo

23:04

Casa house? True. Yeah.

23:07

And is it going to be referenced? You know,

23:09

it just, that was just such a hilarious, and

23:11

it is frequently referenced to this day. Not

23:13

to take away from the amazing European flair.

23:15

I don't know what the architecture is called,

23:17

but it's, but yeah. Oof.

23:20

It's flairy. It's

23:22

been a while since at the Oscars

23:24

we had a movie that had such

23:26

huge pop culture impact. Like I'm trying

23:28

to even think of the last time

23:30

there was something like this widely nominated

23:33

at the Oscars that like inspired TikTok

23:35

trends, as you pointed out, Kara, that

23:37

people are like sharing their own Mojo Dojo

23:39

Casa house. Barbie is just so

23:41

massive in so many of these categories. And

23:43

it makes me really want, despite

23:45

the incredible craft of four things and some of the

23:48

other nominees here, it makes me want them to just

23:50

say like, look, you created something that will be with

23:52

us forever. And it deserves

23:54

to get recognized. It's very

23:56

different than Top Gun, but it's sort of the Top

23:58

Gun of the year. Yeah, yeah,

24:01

but I don't think popgun had the

24:03

same kind of like instantly recognizable iconography You know

24:05

like I don't think it was as but

24:07

it won best set it won best sound

24:09

which was sure it was not assured But

24:12

it did pull something out and that did feel

24:14

like a let's make sure it has a moment

24:16

and Barbie's in a different Position because it is

24:18

winning song But I think Barbie

24:21

could similarly pop in another area that it hadn't

24:23

popped at other word shows I think you're all

24:25

not the tick tock I follow everyone's doing Napoleon

24:27

chic. I mean, it's just You

24:33

You've curated your algorithm well Richard I predicted

24:35

poor things because I

24:37

just think there are enough snoots in the Academy

24:39

that just Don't want to vote for

24:42

Barbie, but I'm probably wrong The

24:45

snoots you're too. I mean, yeah, I'm

24:47

the most worried about them too. Darn it.

24:49

Come on. Yeah I

24:52

am going to split the difference I

24:54

think and say Projection design

24:56

would be poor things because

24:58

like you think of like the visuals of poor

25:00

things you think of those crazy like Lisbon Houses

25:02

all kind of like stacked on top of each other

25:05

maybe more than Costumes and this

25:07

feels like kind of like interesting. I'm not for

25:09

myself. Okay. Yeah, I think Well,

25:12

we'll get to costumes a little bit where we'll have

25:14

this conversation all over again But I'm

25:16

gonna I'm gonna stress about this one for a while

25:18

as which is why we put

25:20

it in the races They're still too close to

25:23

call lineup Okay,

25:25

speaking of that visual effects is another one which

25:28

is such an oddball category because

25:30

Oppenheimer is not present we

25:33

got an interesting listener email kind of suggesting it

25:35

might have been Nolan's kind of Saminess

25:38

about digital effects that made the visual

25:40

effects page be like nope You can't be part of our

25:42

party this year and I have no way to confirm this

25:44

and I would like to do more reporting On it, but

25:47

however it happened Oppenheimer was not the shortlist.

25:49

It is not nominated So the nominees are

25:51

the creator which has been winning it won

25:53

a lot of visual effects Society Awards It's

25:55

a kind of famously low budget really

25:57

beautifully rendered digital effects film Godzilla

26:00

minus one which is a very similar thing and

26:02

had the benefit of being a hit when it

26:05

opened in December And then kind

26:07

of more standard blockbusters Guardians of the galaxy

26:09

volume three mission impossible dead reckoning part one

26:11

and then tiktok's own Napoleon

26:14

in there Somehow

26:18

not nominated in sound we'll get to that in a minute

26:20

I went with Godzilla minus one

26:22

kind of on a gut feeling only obviously

26:25

the creator has done really well within the

26:27

industry But like the creator is not a

26:29

movie that most people remember at all And

26:32

when you've got the broader academy voting in this

26:34

like I don't think there's really deep wells of

26:37

affection For Guardians the galaxy

26:39

or mission impossible. Obviously, there's respect for Napoleon.

26:41

It's nominated in a few other places Because

26:44

the little minus one was such a

26:46

fun success story, you know, it opened around

26:48

the same time as boy in the heron So is

26:50

these two Japanese films really dominating the US box office

26:52

for a while? I just

26:55

I think in the absence of some really

26:57

compelling narrative that would be just enough to put

26:59

it over the top was the case I made

27:01

I think you're right and I think it has

27:03

the added benefit that one of the nominees Takashi

27:05

Yamazaki also directed the movie So it's

27:07

a way to give the director of this great crossover

27:09

hit but actually I was I was listening to Blank

27:11

Check They're talking about it like did better in the

27:14

US than it did in Japan Yeah,

27:16

and maybe that's just because of population size or

27:18

whatever But like it was a fun story, you

27:20

know to have this Japanese film Do

27:23

so well in the US and that the director happened

27:25

to have done a lot of special effects himself I

27:28

think helps its narrative a bit I

27:31

also think Godzilla Takashi also

27:33

had my favorite like

27:35

moving cute award season moment

27:39

I think it was at the luncheon David can make it

27:41

where Steven Spielberg approached him

27:43

and said he had watched his movie three times.

27:45

Oh, man. I was like, I believe it was

27:47

That's great. That's what you want. Like what I

27:49

I just feel like the reverence for Godzilla

27:51

minus one is great I mean people people really

27:54

love it But uh, yeah that that has

27:56

been my favorite little award season tidbit so far

27:58

because it's like can you imagine? Imagine making

28:00

a movie and Spielberg

28:02

telling you you watched it more than

28:04

once. I really wonder what

28:06

Amblin is setting up for Yomazaki. Like what is

28:08

next movie is going to be? Something

28:11

big I'm sure. Yeah. It's

28:14

a fun category. I think a lot of these movies

28:16

can win. I probably would

28:18

predict Godzilla minus one too. It's

28:21

been fascinating to see the creator on the run that

28:23

it's on just given it was so quiet when it

28:25

was released. I still

28:27

think that winning visual effects

28:29

groups is one thing, but being able

28:32

to win with the whole Academy is

28:34

a much more daunting task. Napoleon,

28:38

on the contrary, is the movie that probably

28:40

the Academy has seen the most, that was

28:42

the most heavily campaigned, is the most nominated

28:45

of the bunch. I think

28:47

it can win too in the same way like a first man

28:49

won, even though it wasn't widely

28:51

embraced. We'll see. I

28:53

think it'll be exciting whoever wins because

28:55

I don't think any of these movies

28:57

are winning anything else. Yeah. That's

28:59

a good point. Okay. I

29:01

mentioned Best Sound where Napoleon kind of mystifyingly

29:04

was not nominated despite all those cannon

29:06

booms. But David, as you wrote

29:08

about in our predictions, there is a little

29:10

bit of suspense here, I think, even though

29:12

Oppenheimer sure is loud and sure doesn't do

29:15

a lot with sound and then a very noteworthy

29:17

lack thereof. But it could get beaten.

29:20

Yeah. I

29:22

am pulling for the zone of interest here. What

29:25

a brilliant campaign. Really

29:28

from the jump, from the moment that movie

29:30

kind of started the Fall Festival rounds, that

29:33

was the narrative that A24 was pushing for

29:36

this movie, the

29:38

use of the soundscape of this

29:40

house being next door to Auschwitz

29:43

and hearing those horrors up

29:46

against this very routine, mundane

29:48

depiction of a Nazi family's

29:50

life. They have so

29:53

consistently sold that story that it

29:55

has taken it very far. It

29:58

is not typical. for

30:00

a German language,

30:03

action-free drama to

30:06

appear in Best Sound. It

30:08

won the BAFTA. So

30:10

it has incredible momentum here. And

30:13

the fact that the branch law report and the way they did is

30:15

a great signal, it's just such an

30:17

atypical winner. And Oppenheimer is such a typical

30:19

winner. So it's very hard to

30:22

imagine it happening, but it

30:25

can happen. And I feel like of the

30:28

phase two momentum swings, The

30:31

Zone of Adventures is one movie that just seems to have really

30:34

taken hold of this voting bloc. Natasha

30:37

Lyonne introduced it at the Producer's

30:39

Guild Awards. I moderated

30:41

an event that Jennifer Lawrence

30:44

hosted. And then, of course, you also

30:46

have this other chunk of

30:48

the Academy who just

30:51

considers this a greatly important

30:53

and timely movie. So

30:56

regardless of us, for

30:58

the reasons why, as we've talked about. So

31:01

I really believe it can pull off an

31:03

upset here. I did predict Oppenheimer

31:05

in the end, because as we've

31:08

seen with Best Picture winners that are as strong as

31:10

it, they tend to overperform. And this is a race

31:12

where it would be surprising if it lost. Do you

31:14

think The Zone of Interest has a ton of nominations

31:16

and a ton of support? Would

31:20

some of the voters in trying to be a

31:22

little democratic with their votes, could this be their

31:24

one win? Well,

31:26

that's the thing is I don't think it's

31:28

the only below the line nomination for the movie.

31:31

And it is going

31:33

to win international feature, which we'll talk about.

31:35

Oh, right. OK. Yes. But that's

31:37

its own kind of thing, right? If

31:40

you want to put your weight behind it,

31:42

it's definitely not winning screenplay. It's definitely not

31:45

winning director. It's definitely not

31:47

winning picture. So this is the place to

31:50

give it a special moment and

31:52

recognize the craft behind it. And

31:55

I will say, I don't know about you, David, or

31:57

Kara, who also do Q&A stuff,

31:59

but like. Like when I did a

32:01

Q&A for Zone of Interest in New York, Johnny

32:03

Byrne was there and he was part of the

32:05

panel. Yeah, I did run with him too. And

32:08

so H24, like you mentioned when you wrote it

32:10

up, like they've really been campaigning it and those

32:12

screenings are for Academy members. And I don't think

32:14

that the sound designers for Oppenheimer has been doing

32:16

that kind of press or that sort

32:18

of campaigning in the same way. And so maybe the

32:20

name is just sticky enough in people's heads. They're like,

32:23

oh, he had really interesting things to say about how

32:25

they did the sound for this movie where sound is

32:27

so important. I do kind of agree

32:29

with you, David, that like that

32:31

the Oppenheimer sweep will take sound with it.

32:33

But yeah, there's a strong case to be

32:35

made that Zone of Interest has just being

32:38

a rare movie that is doing a sort

32:41

of mainstream campaign for a smaller technical category.

32:44

Yeah, I like that. I will

32:46

note that on the team for

32:48

Oppenheimer Sound is Kevin O'Connell

32:50

who has been nominated I think 20 times

32:54

in this category and did not win until Hacksaw Ridge

32:56

in 2017. He had

32:58

kind of one of those infamous Oscar streaks like

33:00

Diane Warren basically. I just

33:03

think it's I think Oppenheimer is going to win. I've been thinking

33:05

a lot about what you said, David, about when something is a

33:07

front runner. People want to vote for it more.

33:09

It's not like they look at their ballot. We've seen this

33:11

again and again. Yeah, like they just go down

33:13

there like, yep, again and again. I mean the exception to

33:15

that, and this is a really different thing, like last year

33:17

was everything everywhere, but all quite on the Western front

33:20

was kind of running away with all those technical

33:22

awards. And Sarah Polly

33:24

stuffed it in the Adaptive Greenplay category.

33:27

I don't know that sound works exactly the same

33:29

way. I think that's the exception you might

33:31

be looking for, but I think it's

33:33

as incredible as the sound and sort of interest is and as

33:35

wise as it has been for them to promote

33:38

it and make it not like some

33:40

delicate little like foreign film, like something

33:42

really massive technical accomplishment. Oppenheimer

33:45

is also a massive technical accomplishment,

33:48

and I think I would stick with that one personally. Yep,

33:50

I think you're right. We haven't had a front runner

33:53

that's also a massive technical accomplishment in a while. Yeah,

33:55

exactly. I mean, I look at a dune from two

33:57

years ago. It

34:00

was... basically every technical award even though the

34:02

directors branch didn't even nominate Denis Villeneuve when

34:04

they seem to lock into one movie and

34:06

they did that with All Quiet to an

34:09

extent last year they just tend to win

34:11

a lot. Man we're gonna get

34:13

to talk about Dune 2 at length finally when we

34:15

do our year ahead off predictions now that I

34:17

finally see it. I cannot wait to talk about

34:19

all the actors we think it's gonna win. This

34:22

season would have been crazy if Dune were still

34:24

in. It would have been really stressful and like

34:26

poor Warner Brothers, I mean poor Warner Brothers whatever

34:28

but like they would have had Barbie and Dune

34:30

2 like all trying to go against Oppenheimer would

34:32

have been insane. I think

34:34

it worked out for the best on many levels. A

34:36

friend who is a in our field

34:39

and close Oscar follower

34:41

texted me and said wow I can't believe that the best

34:43

picture winner came out in March convinced that

34:45

Dune 2 is just gonna win.

34:48

Hey all right say

34:51

I tune in about two weeks we'll

34:53

get through all that. I say nomination

34:55

not winner. Yeah. Carrie you read about

34:58

the hair and makeup category where much

35:00

like Oppenheimer and visual effects Barbie did

35:02

not make the short list for hair

35:04

and makeup which is madness but

35:06

here we are so what do you

35:09

think it's gonna win instead? I

35:11

think this is where Maestro

35:13

gets a trophy. I just

35:16

think that you know

35:18

Maestro is respected and I

35:21

don't think it's gonna win anywhere else and

35:24

the makeup artist the lead makeup artist Kazu Hiro

35:26

I hope I'm pronouncing it right. He

35:30

won for the Darkest Hour

35:32

I believe and bombshell I

35:34

think. Yes bombshell yeah excellent

35:36

memory David. I think

35:39

it's you know it one of the hugest

35:41

talking points I guess no

35:44

pun intended was Bradley's transformation you

35:46

know there was some of the kerfuffle about the nose or

35:49

whatever but you know the

35:51

transformation was a was a selling point for the

35:53

movie early on and the hair and makeup are

35:55

the reason it was effective so

35:58

I think I'm pretty confident in it. predicting

36:00

Maestro here. Unless the Academy

36:03

now hates it, I don't know. What do you guys think? Yeah.

36:05

I wonder if the nose was like, offensive enough

36:07

that people, there was controversy about it. Maybe that

36:09

helps it, because it's like, oh, what movie had

36:12

makeup this year? Oh, right, the nose thing. Just

36:14

vote for that. Mm-hmm. Right. I'm going with four

36:16

things because of the Willem Dafoe stuff. Mm-hmm.

36:20

But I think that you're right, that the

36:22

combination of a talked-about bit

36:25

of prosthetics and a revered

36:28

master in Kazuhiro, like, yeah, I

36:31

think maybe you're right, that, Kara,

36:33

that Maestro just has the juice

36:36

behind it. Yeah, I

36:38

think that the real person factor

36:40

is probably what would take Maestro

36:42

over the top. The work

36:45

is so exacting. And again, Netflix,

36:47

in the same way we were talking about A24

36:49

was an interest, Netflix really centered

36:51

Kazuhiro's work from the very beginning of that

36:53

campaign in part, because of the strikes, and

36:55

there wasn't a lot of other things that

36:57

they could talk about, sadly. But

36:59

still, they very effectively put him to the fore

37:02

of this race. It's very

37:04

close, though. Yeah. I

37:06

think Kara has a very valid point that the

37:08

narrative around Maestro is just, it's gotten

37:10

a little rough. Yeah. And

37:13

that's not to say that people in the academy

37:15

don't like it, but when this kind of thing

37:17

spirals, it just becomes a movie that people don't

37:19

necessarily want to vote for. And

37:21

it happens every year. It

37:23

becomes out of the campaign's hands, I think,

37:26

to an extent. I don't

37:28

know if Maestro's there. That probably will

37:30

be the determining factor. But

37:32

poor things is just in such a fascinating

37:35

spot, like it could win zero or

37:37

it could win five very easily. And

37:39

this is one of those that it's just on

37:41

the edge for. But it would

37:44

be kind of a typical winner because it

37:46

is not biographical when it

37:48

does have a real biographical challenger. I

37:51

think that on Monday, when we do

37:53

our post Oscars episode, we'll have another Netflix

37:55

conversation and how they did this

37:57

year because it is very possible, I think, based on what we've done.

37:59

what we're predicting is that they would get for best

38:02

live action short for Wes Anderson and makeup and that would

38:04

be it. And they would have spent,

38:06

who knows how much money to get those two

38:08

relatively below the line Oscars. You

38:11

know, I don't know the Maestro post-mortem

38:14

is something I think we've been doing for months kind of in

38:16

slow motion. I don't know how much there is to say, but

38:19

as much as Kazuhiro's work really deserves a win,

38:21

I think there would be kind of disappointing outcome

38:23

for a lot of the people behind Maestro. I

38:26

think it's already disappointing, right? This is the

38:28

saving grace if they can get it. Yeah.

38:32

Although not for nothing, I interviewed the makeup

38:34

designer for Society of the Snow, also a

38:36

Netflix movie. The makeup in that

38:38

movie is pretty incredible. I'm not sure that it

38:40

popped enough to come out here. You know, it's

38:42

not quite an all-quite on the Western front, but

38:45

it would be a very worthy winner if somehow that happened. Okay,

38:49

costume design. Back to poor things

38:51

and Barbie, as suggested

38:54

earlier. The torment continues.

38:56

So when I was talking earlier about, you know,

38:58

thinking of Barbie for costumes and poor things for

39:01

production design, to put it very broadly, I think

39:03

you talk about the iconography of Barbie that will linger

39:05

with us. And I think it is more neon rollerblading

39:08

and a white fur coat and

39:11

pink jumpsuits and all of that more

39:13

than the Mojo Dojo Casa house. I

39:15

think giving Jacqueline Duran an Oscar for

39:17

these costumes is planting a flag

39:19

on culture in a way that the Oscars, again,

39:21

like don't get a chance to do as often

39:24

as they should. I really

39:26

wanted to win. I predicted it to win

39:28

when I read up our predictions, and I

39:30

really wanted to win here more than almost anywhere

39:32

else. Yeah. When I read that,

39:34

I was psyched because I was like, yes,

39:36

I also, you know, I feel that is

39:38

this is probably a question for David or

39:41

the rest of the group. When's the last

39:43

time a more modern film won this category?

39:45

Because I know they just love

39:47

a period piece and flowing skirts. Sure

39:50

do. It's very rare. It's

39:52

either a period piece or it's Black

39:54

Panther. I mean,

39:56

it's just it's really, really rare.

39:59

Barbie is... a

40:01

singular contender. We don't

40:03

have movies like this very

40:06

often as we were just talking about. So

40:08

it changes the equation a little bit, but I

40:10

do think that the work on Poor Things is

40:13

so strong and so up the Academy's

40:16

alley that it does feel to me

40:18

like the trends in

40:20

this category will win out, especially given

40:22

that what we were saying about Barbie

40:25

with production design is also true in costume design.

40:28

Poor Things has started to beat it in a

40:30

number of places. And this feels like

40:32

a category to me where the trend

40:34

lines are even clearer for who would win

40:36

in the end. I was just looking at Wikipedia.

40:38

The last contemporary

40:41

set now thing to win best costume design was

40:43

Mad Max where he wrote. Now?

40:46

Mad Max is set now? Oh God. I

40:48

was making a joke about our dystopian

40:50

time. No, it's literally like it has

40:52

not happened in decades. It

40:54

doesn't happen. But Mad Max

40:56

is what I was going to throw out because Barbie

40:59

is set now sort of like Barbie

41:01

World is kind of as foreign land as the

41:03

world of Mad Max Fury Road. I feel

41:05

like gonzo-ness goes a long way and

41:07

obviously Poor Things has its own gonzo-ness

41:09

as well. But I think like that

41:11

and Black Panther, even Cruella, have rewarded

41:14

things that are kind of over the

41:16

top and distinctive more than like beautiful

41:18

period work. That is maybe

41:20

why Barbie might benefit from that change

41:22

in the Academy demographics over time. Yeah, I

41:24

guess you could make the argument that Cruella, you

41:26

know, it's a lauded costume designer and it's about

41:29

fashion. That helped a

41:31

lot. But also isn't Barbie about fashion to

41:33

some extent? Like, you know, you can buy separate

41:35

fashions for Barbie dolls, you know, in real

41:37

life. Like, yeah, maybe. So maybe

41:39

it's not like it's like the winner for best

41:41

costume design is Manchester by the Sea because Michelle

41:44

Williams's coat is what real ladies in Boston wear.

41:46

You know, like a great coat. But like, yeah,

41:48

this is something kind of. The Boston Oscars really

41:50

went all the way for me. But

41:54

yeah, I think I think you're right that the Barbie

41:56

is yes set in the present tense, but like it's

41:58

also not. I mean, it's. It's its own thing.

42:01

I'm predicting poor things because I think that that

42:04

movie is going to do really well in all of the below-line

42:06

categories. But there's absolutely a strain

42:08

case for Barbie. Plus,

42:10

I think the snoot factor is here

42:12

again. Yeah, noots are out. I mean,

42:16

I love Katie, part of your description,

42:18

which I agree with, is which of

42:20

these films will have

42:22

impacted Halloween costumes for

42:24

decades to come and Barbie. Napoleon.

42:27

They have to be vegan, though,

42:29

for walking. I

42:33

mean, Bela Baxter is a great Halloween costume. I want to

42:35

be clear. I don't think it came out in time

42:37

for most people to have done that. But maybe

42:39

next year, we'll get to Bela Baxter. Put

42:41

your baby in a Bela Baxter costume. And

42:43

it's walking around like Bela Baxter. It's perfect.

42:47

That would be prettier. The long hair would

42:49

be a real tripping hazard for the baby. But you

42:51

know, it's well-priced to pay. All

42:54

right, I'm going to stick my guns on Barbie on this. But

42:56

it is going to be close. I guess I

42:59

believe in the Academy snoot factor. But I

43:01

also sort of believe in a broader

43:04

group of people who would like to

43:07

do right by Barbie. Yeah. Yeah. I

43:09

agree with you on that. I mean, that's what I was saying

43:11

in production design. There is something to

43:13

that. It just depends on where that's going to

43:15

pop. OK, onto

43:17

best editing, which I think is a little

43:19

bit easier to figure out. Despite the presence

43:21

of genuine icons like Selma

43:24

Shunemaker, activity predictor Jennifer

43:26

Lane for Oppenheimer for this one. Yeah,

43:28

as Richard has said on this podcast,

43:30

a posthumous win because no one can

43:33

survive such an effort. A

43:37

line that has stuck with me because it feels very

43:39

true. We haven't seen Jennifer in a while, or I

43:41

haven't. So email the podcast. Tell us you're OK. I

43:44

did just Google her. She appears to be

43:46

close enough to my age that I'm jealous.

43:48

Just, you know, just putting that out there. But she

43:51

looks 90. Yeah, she is. No,

43:54

you found Selma Shunemaker. This

43:58

is her first nomination. She has worked

44:01

with Nolan before. She was

44:03

known for her work with Noah Baumbach before this. So

44:06

it's very exciting and it's very deserved. I mean,

44:08

my God, it's a heroic

44:10

effort to stitch that thing together and

44:12

keep that pace and that sense of

44:14

narrative logic. Pretty amazing.

44:17

I think Anatomy of a Fall is like

44:19

the zone of interest of sound, you know,

44:22

and the zone of interest is in sound.

44:24

Anatomy is kind of editing here. It is

44:26

even further back, but if

44:28

anything were to pull off an upset, I think it is

44:30

the movie that is the most notably

44:32

nominated, the most unusually nominated. It's

44:34

very difficult for international movies to

44:37

get editing nominations. And

44:39

it's a movie where it shows in the work

44:41

again, but I just don't think that there's

44:43

remotely enough there to overtake what

44:46

Oppenheimer accomplishes. I did

44:48

just Google her and learned that she went to Wesleyan, which

44:50

is where I went with the college. Dang! I

44:52

think you should stop. I do. Who

44:54

knows where this is gonna go? Well, but also, like, I don't

44:56

know her, so she's either younger or older than me, and I'm

44:58

just gonna have to figure this out. So, Jennifer, if you're

45:00

listening. She was your freshman year roommate, Katie. If

45:04

you find out she lives in Durham, look in

45:06

the mirror for 20 seconds and just take a

45:08

deep breath. If you edit Oppenheimer, either die or

45:10

go into a fugue, Satan forgets that you ever

45:13

did it. Sorry, Cara,

45:15

I cut you off. No, no, I will say

45:17

I have a soft spot in

45:19

my heart for Laurent. I got

45:21

to interview him with Justine, and

45:23

they have just, I'm sure this

45:26

happens with a lot of editors and filmmakers,

45:28

but they have the most adorable working married

45:30

couple vibe. They've been working

45:32

together for 15 years, and they just, the

45:34

back and forth of their conversation, I think, my favorite

45:36

thing Justine said is that she has a three-hour, 10-minute

45:38

version of Anatomy of Fall that she would do as

45:40

a director cut, and Laurent was like, no, don't let

45:43

her back in this editing room. Post-production

45:45

was crazy. But I'm just

45:47

happy he's here, and I hope for more of

45:49

their films to come, despite that, obviously, Jennifer,

45:52

let's find her and talk to her about this. I'm

45:55

imagining Katie, like Gina Davis, in The Long Kiss Goodnight. She's just

45:57

like in her kitchen, and all of a sudden, instead of throwing

45:59

her eyes. in that movie, she just starts editing a

46:01

film. And she's like, wait a second. I

46:05

want to take nothing away from Jennifer Lane's incredible

46:07

accomplishment. I could not do this under any circumstances,

46:09

but I do want to be friends. Can we

46:11

just, can we make that happen? Yeah. I

46:14

can marvel in real life. Okay,

46:16

on to Best Cinematography. I'm back

46:18

right around the corner to Oppenheimer.

46:21

I wrote up our predictions. I did say Hoyt of

46:23

Anhoytama would win, but David, I did

46:25

want to give it to you because you interviewed

46:27

him with Jordan Peele last year for NOPE, which

46:29

was just one of the most crazy, not crazy

46:31

snubs because I think NOPE got not

46:34

the treatment it deserved around the board. But

46:36

his work on that was so incredible. And it does feel

46:38

nice that when you're later, we're back here being like, yeah,

46:40

he's just going to win an Oscar. Yeah,

46:43

I mean, the general trajectory of

46:45

his career, it is pretty wild. This is

46:47

going to be his first win. I

46:50

interviewed him for Oppenheimer too. You

46:53

can just look at the behind the scenes

46:55

stills of him with this giant

46:57

IMAX camera right in Killian Murphy's

46:59

face. And yet out

47:02

of that, he makes something incredibly

47:04

beautiful and innovative.

47:08

And he has done that with every movie I've

47:10

seen of his. He's just an unbelievable talent. And

47:13

this one feels really overdue. David,

47:15

you said I interviewed him for Oppenheimer too. And I

47:17

sort of was like, what's a sequel? Yeah,

47:19

I heard myself say it that way. Do

47:22

you want to do more? Don't

47:24

give Chris any ideas. I will note that

47:27

when I wrote this up, I realized all

47:29

of the nominees would be first time winners,

47:31

including people like Rodrigo Pareto. And Matthew Vicky.

47:33

I mean, those are two huge names in

47:35

the industry. Huge names. Yeah. Ed

47:37

Lachman. Ben Ruggierin. I

47:40

know. Yeah, all of these people hopefully

47:42

will win someday. But it certainly is. Hoyt

47:44

has turned. And what a beautiful head of hair

47:46

on that man. I can't wait to see how

47:48

he styles it for the Oscars. The Lachman nomination

47:50

is fun because it's like, oh, right. The trades

47:52

people who do the same work are the ones

47:54

doing the nominating. You see that

47:56

with the score, the American Fiction score that

47:58

Cara mentioned. It's fun when one of

48:01

those things happens where it's like, no, we on

48:03

the inside know how good El Conde loved, you

48:05

know, or whatever. Yeah. That's a

48:07

great point. Yeah. And I feel like that

48:09

happens every year. There's some cinematography nomination that we

48:11

just totally miss because it's a movie that's not

48:13

like fully on our radar. And then afterwards you're

48:15

like, oh yeah, okay. That

48:18

guy. That makes sense. People on or

48:20

listening to this podcast may not know just

48:22

how close the Russo Brothers film Cherry

48:24

was to a cinematography nomination. Really? But

48:27

it was very close. It got a Guild

48:29

nomination. It had a

48:31

lot of support in that branch. You're the first person

48:33

to mention that movie in about two years. Since

48:37

the Austin- Tom Holland just sat up at a

48:40

cold sweat somewhere. Okay.

48:49

Let's go on to best documentary feature. Kara, you are our

48:51

in-house expert. You watched all of the films. For a piece

48:53

that you did for us, it's kind of on a guide

48:55

to what they're about and kind of the broader social

48:58

consciousness of all of them. Which

49:00

is interesting because some of the films we thought would

49:02

be nominated like American Symphony and the Michael J. Fox

49:04

movie were a little bit more celebrity-driven and didn't make

49:06

it in. So this is a heavy

49:09

hitting lineup. But I think with one

49:11

pretty clear winner. Right? Yes. Yeah.

49:14

I really enjoyed exploring this category a little bit

49:16

more because we had talked about before with the nominations

49:19

and I think David, of course, helped educate me that

49:21

this branch has become

49:24

a little bit more international and it

49:26

was a surprise to everyone that none

49:28

of the American films were nominated. However,

49:30

this group of nominees, I happily

49:33

put myself to the task to watch them all. They

49:35

are pretty

49:38

intense but so

49:40

important. I think 20 Days

49:43

of Mary Bowl really does, is the front-runner

49:45

here. It is. It

49:48

is a harrowing watch. I

49:50

don't use that word lightly. It is an

49:52

incredible feat that these

49:55

really brave journalists decided to keep their

49:57

cameras rolling the entire time in hospital.

50:00

in battlefields like when this city was

50:02

under siege, they were trapped so they

50:04

couldn't, they just kept the cameras running and

50:06

they were really the only people that were sending dispatches

50:09

from this horrific event.

50:11

So it's a pretty incredible piece

50:13

of filmmaking. And another

50:16

moment that I think is stuck out of this award

50:18

season is that Chernov,

50:20

I cannot pronounce his first name, I really

50:23

apologize for that, but he won the DGA

50:25

for his film as well and on the

50:27

day that he accepted that award, he said

50:29

that his hometown was now being attacked

50:32

and bombed. So it was just like one

50:35

of those things that's just so

50:37

powerful and also pretty

50:39

tragic. But the

50:41

other four nominees are equally incredible

50:44

in kind of shining light in very

50:46

specific ways in different parts of the

50:48

world, like things that are incredibly

50:50

important and devastating

50:52

that deserve the attention. So

50:55

I highly recommend watching all five of

50:57

these. Yeah, they're all

50:59

pretty available. Most of them are

51:01

able to watch at home, right? Yes.

51:04

Yeah, most of them, I think. I predicted

51:06

20 days as well. And I think that

51:08

it's interesting that if it wins, it's

51:11

the second movie in a row after Navalny

51:13

to be a sort of hard

51:16

look at current Russian foreign policy,

51:18

let's say, or in

51:20

domestic policy as well in Navalny's case. Yeah,

51:23

and I think that it just has the

51:25

kind of like emergence boom behind it. Whereas,

51:28

you know, like Four Daughters was on my best

51:30

of the year list. It's really great. It's really

51:32

interesting. It's documentary, but it's

51:34

also kind of staged. And it's,

51:36

you know, but I just think that

51:38

like for the kind of really like you are

51:40

there quality of 20 days, it's

51:43

just, it's unbeatable. Yeah, and Four

51:45

Daughters did win the Independent Spirit Award. It

51:47

definitely has a lot of love in the fact that it kind

51:49

of premiered at Cannes. But again, all five of these are

51:51

really different and

51:55

incredible in different ways. Last

51:57

year, Navalny came up kind of at

51:59

the last. It seemed like

52:01

it was going to be between all the beauty at the bloodshed

52:03

and fire of love. And that

52:05

is a win that has quite

52:07

unfortunately, I think, resonated

52:11

given recent world events. So

52:13

I think that that probably only bolsters the case

52:16

for Twin Days and Marry a Pole to really

52:18

just continue what this brand,

52:20

what this category has been honoring and

52:23

spotlighting specifically. OK,

52:26

let's move on to animated feature

52:28

where I think I'm going to

52:30

disagree with what David predicted in our predictions, but

52:32

acknowledging it was a tight race. So, Dave, won't

52:35

you lay that for us? Yeah,

52:38

this this feels like perhaps

52:40

the clearest test

52:42

this year of just

52:45

how international the academy has

52:47

gone, because it's very split

52:49

between Spider-Man across the Spider-Verse

52:51

and the boy inherent. And

52:54

I think most years at

52:56

this point, I would probably predict Boy in the

52:58

Heron. It's won a few

53:00

key awards, including the BAFTA and the

53:03

Golden Globe. It was a box

53:05

office hit in the US. It

53:07

had this narrative of being Miyazaki's final film

53:10

that seems to be now more of a

53:12

maybe, but still very well could be. And

53:15

I think voters are aware of that. And

53:17

then on the other side of it, you have, I

53:19

think, for this

53:21

category, unusually popular acclaimed

53:25

and broadly appealing film in Spider-Verse.

53:27

And that's that's where it gets

53:30

tricky. Spider-Verse won PGA and it

53:33

also won the Emmy Award. It

53:36

was a box office phenomenon when

53:38

it came out. When did it

53:40

come out? Long time ago. Late

53:43

May, early June. Yeah, yeah,

53:45

yes. The beginning of summer. That's

53:47

right. And and for

53:50

me, this this came down to like, let's

53:53

presume because this is a case in

53:55

most categories that many voters have not

53:57

seen either movie or.

54:00

least a good chunk of them haven't and they're gonna

54:02

watch them on their portal at home. I

54:05

see Boy and the Heron stumping more

54:07

voters than Spider-Verse and

54:09

I see Spider-Verse because it's already

54:11

so well liked. I

54:14

think I wrote what I wrote was it has a higher

54:16

floor than Boy and the Heron and in a race this

54:18

close that kind of made the difference for me. I

54:21

would love to see Boy and the Heron win and

54:23

I would love to see the Academy go in a

54:26

different direction than where they usually go in the animated

54:28

race and they really can win.

54:30

I think I'm being a bit cynical. As someone who likes

54:33

Spider-Verse, I'm not mad about it but I think I'm being

54:35

a bit cynical here by saying I don't think they'll quite

54:37

take that leap. When I was trying to predict this for

54:39

my ballot, I was like,

54:41

well Miyazaki, he wins every time. No, he's

54:43

been nominated four times and only won once

54:46

and I think that like... And it

54:48

was four like straight away. It was four

54:50

double. And I think his movies, why people

54:52

love them is that they're very idiosyncratic, they're

54:54

strange, they are at times like Boy and

54:56

the Heron hard to follow, you know? And

54:58

I wonder if that is kind of a hindrance

55:01

for it in this case. On

55:04

the Spider-Man side of things which I ultimately predicted, I

55:07

do wonder if because the movie

55:09

ends, sorry spoiler alert, on

55:12

a real cliffhanger because it's really part one of

55:14

two or I go to the middle of a

55:16

trilogy, I wonder if people

55:18

will be like, maybe we'll wait to vote for the, you

55:20

know, like kind of Return of the King winning everything, not

55:22

Two Towers or the first movie. But

55:25

I don't know, I still think that the,

55:27

just the animation itself, forget the plot, forget

55:29

all that of Spider-Verse is

55:32

unique and I think people will kind

55:34

of go for that. I landed

55:36

on that half of a movie thing as a ding

55:38

against it as I say. You know what, like it's

55:40

good, it's an accomplishment. We already gave it to the

55:43

first one. Like we have a chance to give Miyazaki

55:45

possibly his last opportunity for an Oscar, not that I

55:47

think he will show up or is all that bothered

55:49

by any of this and God bless him for it.

55:51

And you know, Spider-Verse was

55:53

a huge hit, it's really popular, it does

55:55

have that like that PGA populist streak going

55:57

for it and I admit I am sorry.

56:00

selectively choosing where I think Academy Snobbery

56:02

exists and doesn't exist. But

56:04

I just feel like I just a teeny

56:06

bit of extra snobbery. This is not a

56:08

super strong reason to give it to the

56:10

second Spider-Verse movie when there's a third one coming

56:13

and I do think there is a strong reason

56:15

to give it to Miyazaki and that's why I

56:17

would go there. Most cynically if they had really

56:19

hammered home it is Miyazaki's final film but

56:22

then when I reviewed it from Toronto

56:24

it was like it's a beautiful send-off

56:26

to Miyazaki and then Miyazaki was like

56:28

I'm not done. But

56:31

that really is the point. I mean I

56:34

think that narrative if that were a bit

56:36

clearer and stronger it would have a more

56:38

obvious path but he's like no cynically I

56:40

do agree. It is interesting to think

56:42

of that and also Kill to the Flower Moon because

56:44

it's like we knew that was Martin Scorsese's last film.

56:46

It'd be like wow well he's like what a conclusion.

56:49

He himself steps on stage in his final film but

56:51

Scorsese's the same way. He was like no man I'll

56:53

keep making movies as long as you let me. And

56:56

may they please continue doing so for as

56:58

long as possible. Yeah. A broader point though

57:00

Katie I know you

57:02

said you're being selective with Academy

57:05

Snobbery and where it's going to pop up. We

57:07

have to be because this is the group that

57:09

can give Drive My Car, Best

57:11

Picture Director and Screenplay nominations and Jessica Chastain,

57:13

Best Actress for Tammy Faye in the same

57:16

year. Stay Sure Cam. It's just

57:18

hard. You should throw the car over. I

57:23

love Jessica Chastain but that movie is not art

57:25

house. It's

57:27

no Zone of Interest I say

57:30

that much. Exactly. Yeah well

57:32

yeah I guess speaking of Zone of Interest, Kara

57:34

you predicted international feature for us and

57:37

it sort of seems like a simple choice

57:39

despite some strong contenders in there. Yeah

57:41

I just the love for

57:43

similar to the momentum for Anatomy of

57:46

a Fall I think that the

57:48

Zone of Interest has I mean they're both Best

57:50

Picture nominees but this one

57:52

has Zone of Interest has dominated the

57:54

conversation in this category. Not

57:57

you know not to take anything away

57:59

from the nominees. because people do really love all those.

58:02

I have not seen the teacher's lounge. That's still one that

58:04

I need to do really good. It's really good. I

58:06

know. And a good time. I

58:08

mean, it's tense, but like it's not

58:10

20 days in Mario Paul. Give it that. It's not

58:13

a good time for the teacher. It is a good

58:15

time for the audience. There you go. I know that's one. But

58:17

I feel like there was a lot of love for that one too, but

58:19

the zone of interest I think

58:21

has dominated this category

58:23

in the precursors as well and

58:26

again, has a lot of support and

58:28

reverence. I think

58:31

France is very unbothered, but we

58:33

would have had an all-timer race to the finish between

58:35

zone of interest and the enemy of a car here.

58:37

I know. And we were denied

58:40

it. I was thinking the exact

58:42

same thing. Potential spoiler, I guess maybe

58:44

perfect days, but I think... Box

58:46

office hit. Yeah. I

58:48

think zone of interest is just so far ahead of the other movies.

58:51

It is. I

58:53

think society just now at one point looked like it could

58:55

be a sort of all quiet slow burn,

58:58

but I think that movie is so miserable to

59:00

watch. I mean, in a good way because it's supposed to be

59:02

that people are turned off. It

59:05

really is a tough one. Perfect

59:08

days is my favorite of this category. I

59:10

mean, zone of interest is an incredible achievement,

59:12

but chilling. I think

59:14

Richard had in his initial review is like

59:16

an understatement, but perfect days. What a joy.

59:19

Yeah. Yeah. And

59:21

we looked at each other and finished and like,

59:23

that was so delightful. Yeah. I

59:26

think I've done this before on this show, but I keep

59:28

doing it. Look up on Box Office Mojo. Perfect days has

59:30

made $20 million around

59:32

the world. It's incredible

59:34

what a huge hit this is. For

59:36

a movie where not a lot happens, that's

59:38

really impressive. But anybody can

59:40

see it. I would recommend perfect days to

59:42

anyone who can tolerate subtitles really. And

59:45

I think that bears that in the box office. Do you

59:47

guys know that a zone of interest made more in the US

59:49

than tar? Wow. What? Yeah.

59:51

Our houses are back. Our

59:54

houses are back. It's hard not an easy set, but I

59:56

would say easier than zone of interest. I mean, Cape

59:58

Blind Chet, who would think could... bring in more

1:00:00

than Sondra Huler. Zone of

1:00:02

Interest, so Perfect Gaze is just under $20

1:00:05

million worldwide and Zone of Interest is just over it.

1:00:07

Man, what a

1:00:09

lovely thing to see. I didn't realize tar

1:00:11

didn't have that. I saw tar so late

1:00:13

in that season. It was the year of

1:00:16

the art house collapse. It

1:00:18

was horrible and I remember women talking

1:00:20

kept getting pushed and pushed and pushed

1:00:22

and pushed. I don't even remember when

1:00:24

it came out. I could not even

1:00:26

approximate its box office for

1:00:29

you, but I'm sure it was very low.

1:00:31

But all of Lydia's conduct concerts have been

1:00:33

sending out. Oh,

1:00:35

my stroke counter for a minute. Oh,

1:00:39

God. Okay, now we're heading into, are these

1:00:42

top lane, are screenplays top lane categories? I never

1:00:44

remember where we draw the line.

1:00:46

They're considered among the big five, right? It's

1:00:49

above the line. It's actually a technical term because

1:00:51

it's like the pre-production categories. Yeah, we actually had

1:00:53

a listener question about that, David, and I don't

1:00:56

know if now is the detour to take it,

1:00:58

but I am very curious about above versus below

1:01:00

the line since I never knew that definition. Oh, right,

1:01:02

because I had said casting was above line, which

1:01:04

it is. Yeah, it's when that work

1:01:07

shows up at that point.

1:01:09

Wow, fascinating. Okay, so here we

1:01:11

are in Adapted Screenplay, which I

1:01:13

took on. I do ...

1:01:16

suspenseful categories we'll have. We'll

1:01:19

get to Best Actress, but in terms of the top

1:01:21

major categories, it's really up there. I

1:01:24

went with Cor Jefferson for American fiction,

1:01:26

kind of with my fingers crossed behind

1:01:29

my back saying it could be Barbie or

1:01:31

it could be Oppenheimer. Those all feel like

1:01:33

plausible outcomes from this, and I'm very surprised to

1:01:35

say Oppenheimer because I feel like for

1:01:38

a long time we were like, well, Christopher Nolan wrote the

1:01:40

screenplay. He's going to win director, not to spoil our

1:01:42

predictions, but come on. But

1:01:44

as we've been saying, as David pointed out, a

1:01:46

front runner can kind of build up steam to

1:01:50

make sure it's ... Yes,

1:01:52

and the adaptation of Oppenheimer is

1:01:54

really phenomenal. I don't think you have

1:01:56

to have read American Prometheus to kind of understand

1:01:59

what a ... of adaptation it is.

1:02:01

Barbie is less of a feat of adaptation because

1:02:03

it's kind of taking a concept more than a

1:02:06

story, but the script for Barbie is remarkable in

1:02:08

so many ways. It is a huge part of

1:02:10

its power as a pop culture juggernaut. But

1:02:13

then American Fiction, as we have said,

1:02:15

I think last week, talking about the

1:02:17

BAFTAs, fits that model of the big

1:02:20

breakout talent winning for a screenplay award.

1:02:22

It overperformed with nominations. It

1:02:24

won't win anything else except

1:02:26

for this, unlike Barbie. And

1:02:29

that might be why I would go

1:02:31

with it in addition to kind of a sense

1:02:33

of momentum. I

1:02:36

think a screenplay win for Barbie would have felt likely

1:02:38

or if it weren't for those snubs, if it weren't

1:02:40

for the, you know, the sense of people kind of

1:02:42

being ready to move on for it. It's really hard

1:02:44

to gauge the desire to give

1:02:46

Barbie what it deserves versus saying, okay, okay,

1:02:48

you have enough. And I think with a

1:02:50

really clear alternative in

1:02:52

American fiction, as someone who, like

1:02:55

Greta Gerwig was with Lady Bird, is like a big

1:02:57

exciting voice in the industry, it feels

1:02:59

like an easy spot for that to

1:03:01

win instead. Not easy, but plausible.

1:03:04

I think, and I don't mean this in

1:03:06

any sort of pejorative sense, but I think

1:03:08

that American fiction has the added benefit of

1:03:10

it flatters the audience. It makes people feel

1:03:13

smart and erudite and like they're having a

1:03:15

sort of like entertaining cultural lesson, you know,

1:03:17

so it has this kind of, and Barbie

1:03:19

also has that obviously, like it's about big

1:03:21

social things, but I think American

1:03:23

fiction hearkens back to like James L. Brooks

1:03:26

and movies like that. It feels old fashioned,

1:03:28

but also kind of strikingly

1:03:30

new. And it's exciting in

1:03:32

a way that, you know, Barbie is exciting too,

1:03:34

but it was exciting last summer. And I

1:03:37

think that it just maybe lost all the

1:03:39

momentum here. And Cora Jefferson has won the

1:03:42

Spirit Award. He's been kind of on a

1:03:44

nice little run recently. So I

1:03:46

agree with you, Katie. Yeah, these

1:03:48

are strong arguments. I agree with you all. If

1:03:51

Cord or Barbie's Greta

1:03:54

knows sneak out of an Albee site.

1:03:58

I am also on the American fiction

1:04:00

train here. It's one also, basically

1:04:02

everything. And yeah, one at one

1:04:04

BAFTA, that for me

1:04:06

was like, I will not predict anything else

1:04:09

because it wasn't nominated anywhere else at BAFTA.

1:04:11

They didn't care for it. And

1:04:14

the fact that it had surged to that extent

1:04:16

in this race, why wouldn't

1:04:18

the Academy Fallsuit when it overperformed the nominations

1:04:20

with them? It feels like that is a

1:04:24

natural legacy for this movie. I think it really

1:04:26

is a classic kind of breakout

1:04:29

screenplay winner like you were saying, Katie. Something

1:04:32

that it took me a while to see, to be honest.

1:04:35

But I'm pretty firmly on that train. And

1:04:38

look, Hollywood loves Gawker writers. Just love

1:04:41

them. I mean,

1:04:43

Richard, will the Gawker alumni send up like

1:04:46

smoke signals to each other when one of

1:04:48

your own wins an Oscar? Yeah, something's gonna

1:04:50

happen. I mean, the big leader, you know,

1:04:52

we used to have in the office of

1:04:55

Nick Datton, put up TV screens that was

1:04:57

a leaderboard of writers traffic. So like, if

1:04:59

your name was like, number one for the

1:05:01

day, you were really excited. So if Cord

1:05:03

Jefferson wins an Oscar, he's number one forever.

1:05:06

That's it. He won. I

1:05:09

do think that no matter what, I mean, if no

1:05:11

one wins, I think I would not begrudge

1:05:13

to him at all. Like I said, it's a feat

1:05:15

of adaptation. I think they'll be like, all right, this could be

1:05:17

back. Okay. But I think either Cord

1:05:20

Jefferson or Greta Gerwig and Noah Bobback

1:05:22

winning would be a thrill because

1:05:24

of the suspense here. So maybe there's a

1:05:26

benefit to it being so tight, even if you would like

1:05:28

all of them to win. Okay,

1:05:31

from one married couple in

1:05:33

the race together to another one, David, would

1:05:35

you like to explain how anatomy of a

1:05:37

fall became the odds on favorite here? And

1:05:40

who might beat it anyway? We can maybe

1:05:42

thank the Golden Globes. Thank

1:05:44

you, Golden Globes. They

1:05:46

put Justine Tre and Arthur Harari

1:05:48

on their stage for screenplay. At

1:05:50

the time, it was a thrilling

1:05:52

surprise. And ever since then, it

1:05:54

has just marched its way toward

1:05:56

this award. It won the other

1:05:58

televised Award for BAFTA.

1:06:01

It feels like the place to

1:06:03

honor this movie. And we'll talk

1:06:05

about actress in a little bit.

1:06:07

I have some thoughts there. Spoiler

1:06:09

alert. But

1:06:12

I do think that most

1:06:14

voters are aware that this

1:06:16

is where it can easily

1:06:18

win a competitive Oscar and the Academy loves it.

1:06:21

So I think that the support will go there.

1:06:23

At this point, I

1:06:25

do think it's kind of a done deal.

1:06:27

But it is worth noting that this

1:06:29

is a really, you know,

1:06:31

fresh and rich category with

1:06:33

movies that I think that these voters

1:06:35

really like. Past Lives won the Spirit

1:06:38

Awards for Best Teacher and

1:06:40

Best Director for Celine Song, who also wrote

1:06:42

the movie. And that can

1:06:44

signal just some

1:06:47

level of momentum. I think it was pretty assured

1:06:49

to win those, but still in

1:06:52

the same kind of places as women

1:06:54

talking, Best Picture nominee with only a

1:06:56

screenplay nominee alongside it. So that will

1:06:58

definitely help it get some votes for the big fans

1:07:00

of that movie. And then

1:07:03

there's the holdovers, which has

1:07:05

always been percolating. It's always been around.

1:07:07

It's very well liked. My

1:07:10

conspiracy theory is that if Alexander Payne had a

1:07:12

writing credit on this movie, it would be more

1:07:14

competitive, which is, you

1:07:16

know, obviously of no, no fault of

1:07:19

David Hemingstine, the writer who wrote a

1:07:21

lovely screenplay. But I think it would make

1:07:23

it easier for people to vote for

1:07:25

the film and vote for an Alexander Payne film. It

1:07:29

is funny to me that the holdovers are such

1:07:31

a like a writerly, funny,

1:07:33

eloquent script that it feels like should

1:07:35

be a really strong front runner. But

1:07:38

it's a testament to what we've been

1:07:40

saying for months. This is a great

1:07:42

year. There's not really bad nominees anywhere.

1:07:44

And really great movies can just become

1:07:47

also rants because there's too much competition.

1:07:50

I think what's fascinating is that of

1:07:52

this category, which also includes Maestro, a heavily

1:07:55

campaigned film that is a Best Picture nominee

1:07:57

in May, December, which deserve far more than

1:07:59

the this nomination, Anatomy

1:08:02

of Fall is the strongest

1:08:04

overall contender in this five.

1:08:06

And that is a really

1:08:08

remarkable, steady trajectory for this

1:08:10

movie since Cannes. It has held to

1:08:12

such an amazing degree. Then that's

1:08:14

not something that I think any of us would have

1:08:16

thought a few months ago when you had holdovers and

1:08:18

past lives looking as strong as they were. Yeah.

1:08:21

I don't feel like Justine and

1:08:23

Arthur have leaned into the fact that

1:08:26

they are a married couple who

1:08:28

wrote a really interesting movie about

1:08:30

a fractured marriage. Interesting is

1:08:33

like a small word for what

1:08:35

they meant to accomplish. A challenging,

1:08:37

I would say magnificent. But

1:08:40

I would love to, because I think people kind

1:08:42

of joke about working with their partners in this

1:08:44

business. And the fact that they work together and

1:08:46

it was about such

1:08:48

a charged topic I think is

1:08:50

pretty delightful. And on the

1:08:52

cynical side, the big climactic fight is in English.

1:08:56

I think that helps. Also, it happened

1:08:58

on March 4th, which is the day before

1:09:00

we were recording this. I saw someone tweet

1:09:02

that it was, you know, happy, happy, happy

1:09:04

with a fall fight day. Is that the new

1:09:06

Mean Girl thing? Exactly. It's a new

1:09:08

Mean Girl thing. It would be

1:09:11

great to see Greta and Noah

1:09:13

and then Justine and Arthur present

1:09:15

or accept their awards back to back. It's

1:09:18

not at all impossible. Okay,

1:09:24

we're up to the acting awards. Maybe we

1:09:26

can make this quick. There

1:09:29

is no reason that Robert Downey Jr. will not win

1:09:31

Best Supporting Actor. I mean,

1:09:33

it would be very lovely to see many of these

1:09:35

people win instead. I think it's a great group of

1:09:37

nominees, as we keep saying over and over again. But I

1:09:41

don't even feel bad about like Ryan Gosling not

1:09:43

winning for Barbie. You know, there's something undeniable about

1:09:46

Downey here. I would

1:09:48

love to go back to our Oppenheimer episode because I

1:09:50

feel like this is something we really clearly

1:09:53

predicted. Oh, yeah, I could be wrong, but

1:09:55

it just was it's the one category like

1:09:57

months and months and months ago that we

1:09:59

were like. Yeah, that's probably gonna happen right and

1:10:01

then there was a little bit of doubt when the

1:10:03

Melton stuff was happening and I and I Think I'll

1:10:05

speak for myself. I sort of talked myself into a

1:10:07

weird like wait, is that gonna happen? But

1:10:10

no downie jr. Won this

1:10:12

Oscar today the movie period. Yeah,

1:10:14

I will say Controversial opinion

1:10:17

or a hot take potentially I saw Oppenheimer so

1:10:19

late as I've talked about catching up on my

1:10:21

words movies so the hype

1:10:23

train for downie jr. Was well on

1:10:25

its way at the gate and I Wasn't

1:10:28

as dazzled by his performance as the

1:10:30

rest of the people in this category

1:10:32

I have to say now but his

1:10:35

campaign was It's

1:10:37

been strong. He's been like so game for everything

1:10:39

the whole time. I mean, I don't hate at all

1:10:41

that he's gonna win, but I The

1:10:44

other performances here. I'm just like, oh they

1:10:46

were they were they I preferred them He

1:10:48

didn't need to run the strongest campaign, but he

1:10:50

ran a hell of a campaign Yeah, it is

1:10:53

in a way the culmination of

1:10:55

what has essentially been a 16 year

1:10:57

comeback, you know and

1:10:59

it's insane to think that you know, like 16

1:11:02

years like he's been a huge movie star since Iron Man

1:11:04

won But like and he was the Iron Man what

1:11:06

was 16 years ago, unfortunately, which but we're all

1:11:09

26 Yeah, I guess somehow But

1:11:11

you know what I mean? Like it's just like okay,

1:11:13

so he did the huge commercial thing He's been kind

1:11:15

of self-deprecating about that on this award circuit. Yeah, and

1:11:18

now they get to say like Welcome

1:11:20

back to like being a real capital a actor

1:11:22

like you were in the old days, you know,

1:11:24

and yeah I just that's hard to beat and

1:11:28

As his buddy Mark Ruffalo pointed out

1:11:30

on this very podcast He

1:11:32

Robert does a lot of stuff behind the scenes

1:11:35

for other people in this business. So again, I

1:11:37

have I have zero I mean, he's always been

1:11:39

great. But yeah, you know who deserve more of

1:11:41

a run here Robert DeNiro Yeah,

1:11:43

so good in that movie. Yeah, one of the

1:11:45

performances of his career. I think yeah

1:11:47

I mean speaking of people who don't need to

1:11:49

campaign like he doesn't need to campaign but he didn't

1:11:51

and then like it seems like You

1:11:55

know like the man's got other things to do he got

1:11:57

mad that he couldn't talk about Donald Trump and then

1:11:59

he Like, all right, you guys in February.

1:12:01

Robert De Niro's reticence to do any sort of

1:12:03

promo was so funny. Years ago,

1:12:06

there was a Tribeca film festival panel, and

1:12:08

it was Meryl Streep, Judd Apatow, Robert De

1:12:10

Niro talking about it was like the 100th

1:12:12

anniversary of Universal Pictures. And

1:12:14

they was moderated by someone from Deadline, and Meryl Streep

1:12:16

last minute dropped out because she had a cold. So

1:12:18

it was just these three guys on stage. And

1:12:21

all the moderator was doing was asking Robert De

1:12:23

Niro questions about the deer hunter. And

1:12:25

it was just so apparent that Robert De Niro was like, I

1:12:28

run this to the museum festival, so that's why I'm here. But

1:12:30

I do not want to be here at all.

1:12:32

And Judd Apatow had to intervene and basically save

1:12:34

the day. Yeah, De Niro

1:12:36

is very preshine, I guess the phrase would

1:12:38

be. But had

1:12:41

he campaigned, I don't think it would have mattered. No,

1:12:43

no. It would be hard for him.

1:12:45

I mean, given that he did nimmit get nominated

1:12:47

for the Irishman, another incredible performance just a few

1:12:49

years ago, it does feel like he's being underappreciated

1:12:53

while still getting nominated. I think that

1:12:55

is a thing. But also,

1:12:57

I think he's fine. He's got it. I will say, Mr.

1:13:00

De Niro did the cover of People Magazine

1:13:02

this season, my friends. Well, then, Karen, you

1:13:04

don't work. You're working for us now. I

1:13:08

know. But I was shocked to see

1:13:10

that come through my social feeds. I'm

1:13:12

like, ah. The campaigns are

1:13:14

happening even if we don't notice them. That's

1:13:16

not the campaign we'd expect from Robert De Niro. No, right? 2020

1:13:18

for him. Well, he married a British boy. I mean, so he's

1:13:20

going to be on the cover of People. OK,

1:13:24

on to Best Supporting Actress. The

1:13:27

supporting categories are so locked in place. David Andre Randolph,

1:13:29

I mean, in a way that I think is more

1:13:31

interesting than Robert Downey Jr. He has the whole comeback

1:13:33

narrative. He is a giant star. We knew he was

1:13:35

going to win from the beginning. I think when the

1:13:38

holdovers premiered at Toronto, we say, wow, she's so great

1:13:40

in this. I really hope they can make a campaign

1:13:42

of that. And then it just never stopped. She just

1:13:44

marched and marched through the whole thing. And

1:13:46

I think if you look at her fellow nominees now, Nia

1:13:50

and the Color Purple are not especially strong

1:13:52

as Oscar contenders. So you see why Daniel Brooks

1:13:55

and Jodie Foster can be overlooked there. America

1:13:57

Ferrera kind of snuck in for Barbie. I think a

1:13:59

very well deserved. nomination, but it's a

1:14:01

smaller part compared to some of the other ones.

1:14:03

And then Emily Blunt's part in Oppenheimer has been...

1:14:05

We don't have Rebecca here. We don't have Rebecca here. I

1:14:07

know. I

1:14:10

think she's terrific in Oppenheimer. I'm obviously an

1:14:12

Oppenheimer partisan, but she's not the most important

1:14:14

part of that movie. You're Jennifer Laim. I am Jennifer Laim. I

1:14:16

made her part what it is. Editing

1:14:18

her with the pleasure. I

1:14:21

think Dave Andre Randolph, you could maybe argue, was a

1:14:23

third lead more than a supporting actress. He's certainly the

1:14:27

biggest part of all the nominees here. So that explains

1:14:29

some of the power of how she's marched through it.

1:14:31

But also she's a great campaigner, a great performance, and

1:14:33

she's just going to win. I

1:14:35

hate to bring in my screen

1:14:37

time fact check, but Jodie Foster is

1:14:39

actually the biggest performance here. I

1:14:42

was just hoping you'd come around to NIAID so we could talk about

1:14:44

it a little bit. But how many of those shots are of Annette

1:14:46

Bening in the water with Jodie in the background like waving? Or

1:14:49

yelling. She yells. She yells. Well,

1:14:52

Jodie Foster also plays all the jellyfish. I

1:14:58

agree with you though, Katie. I think that this is an... The

1:15:01

dominance here is an interesting

1:15:03

story even if it does feel

1:15:05

so telegraphed and done at this

1:15:07

point. It wasn't that way... I

1:15:10

mean, I guess when she won New York Film Critics

1:15:12

Circle, we all just started to realize

1:15:14

that this was unstoppable. It's like

1:15:16

it clicked into place and never budged.

1:15:19

Yeah. And that can happen

1:15:21

certainly, especially in this category.

1:15:24

But I think that the... The

1:15:27

unique thing about her candidacy is

1:15:29

the alignment between every

1:15:31

major critics group and every

1:15:34

major awards... Telemized awards

1:15:36

show. Like if you think of somebody like

1:15:39

Alison Janie for Itania, it couldn't have

1:15:41

been more obvious. But the critics actually

1:15:43

went mostly for Laurie Metcalfe that year.

1:15:45

Or I think even with Laura Dern

1:15:47

and Marriage Story, probably a

1:15:50

more similar case to Robert Denny Jr. It was

1:15:52

in a more scattered field when it came to

1:15:54

what the critics were recognizing. This

1:15:56

one, it's just like every single

1:15:58

person has... has

1:16:00

essentially chosen her. And I'm thrilled for

1:16:03

her. OK. We'll

1:16:05

do Best Actor before we get to the title

1:16:08

card match of this year's Oscars.

1:16:10

I think when Kelly

1:16:12

Murphy won at SAG, David, I think you just texted

1:16:14

me and said, it's over, which

1:16:16

is maybe a simple way of boiling down what

1:16:19

has been a race between him and Paul Giamatti.

1:16:21

But I do mostly agree with you with what

1:16:23

you wrote in our predictions. So I'll let you explain

1:16:25

it from there. Yeah,

1:16:27

I mean, it's extremely rare for an actor to

1:16:29

win both SAG and BAFTA in this category and

1:16:31

then not win the Oscar. I don't even remember

1:16:34

the last time that that's happened. So

1:16:36

as far as I can

1:16:38

tell, it's kind of done. Kelly

1:16:40

Murphy is in the Best Picture front runner. He

1:16:44

has won every notable industry

1:16:46

award. He had

1:16:49

a really strong phase two campaign. I feel

1:16:51

like Universal kicked that into gear at just

1:16:53

the right time. I was very impressed with

1:16:56

that because a lot of the focus in

1:16:58

phase one was on Emily Blunt and Robert

1:17:00

Downey Jr. And it just

1:17:02

you know, it's at this point, it would be

1:17:05

very, very weird if Oppenheimer had

1:17:07

this huge embrace. Its actor

1:17:09

had won all these precursors and then

1:17:11

he lost to Paul Giamatti, who is

1:17:13

wonderful in the holdovers. But

1:17:15

if Paul Giamatti doesn't win with SAG

1:17:17

and that's his group, I

1:17:19

just don't see how this is where

1:17:22

he pulls off an upset. Doesn't quite

1:17:24

compute for me. Yeah, I figured

1:17:26

I mean, I kind

1:17:28

of expected Killian to potentially

1:17:31

just like become our winner.

1:17:33

But I really wanted Paul to win the

1:17:35

SAG just to have one little upset. I

1:17:40

will be reading for Paul Giamatti. I think the I

1:17:42

mean, I think Kelly Murphy will win as well. I

1:17:44

will root for him in general in life. I think

1:17:47

the I said to somebody like I think now Giamatti

1:17:49

wins an Oscar in the next five years. You know

1:17:51

how that happens? Like Colin Firth gets his nomination for

1:17:53

a single band and it wins the next year like

1:17:55

that happens. And I think that he has such a

1:17:57

head of steam behind him. And hopefully the

1:18:00

role will come and make that possible because

1:18:02

he certainly deserves it. Here's

1:18:04

a text message that I sent to

1:18:07

David Canfield and

1:18:09

Rebecca Ford, August 22nd, 2023. How

1:18:15

does he not win? Sorry, Killian.

1:18:17

Who was I talking about? I

1:18:20

was talking about Bradley Fucking Cooper. You were talking

1:18:22

about Bradley Fucking Cooper. No.

1:18:25

So don't listen to anything I ever say on this podcast. I

1:18:28

have no idea what I'm talking about. The

1:18:31

unpredictability of a maestro campaign is not

1:18:33

something that happens. I

1:18:35

didn't know how it was all going to go. I

1:18:38

agree with the Murphy thing. I mean, the stat

1:18:40

alone about BAFTA and SAG, like, yeah, that's really

1:18:42

good indication. And I think that I

1:18:44

don't think that this should be talked about

1:18:46

like, oh, Killian Murphy just got swept up

1:18:49

in the Oppenheimer momentum. I think that like

1:18:51

he stands alone separate of that phenomenon as

1:18:54

a really beloved actor who does a really

1:18:56

interesting bit of acting. It's

1:18:58

fun to see a more like recessive,

1:19:00

quiet performance, you know, potentially

1:19:02

for now, you know, with a big Oscar

1:19:04

like this. Plus, he is

1:19:07

just a little more reserved, which I

1:19:09

think is really charming. You know, I

1:19:11

have enjoyed both sets of speeches along

1:19:13

this trail. Paul's, I

1:19:16

think was the globe that was like

1:19:18

his first moving one. Yeah. Anyway,

1:19:20

but yeah, go forth, Killian.

1:19:23

I was thinking when I was seeing Dune 2 to

1:19:25

bring it up again, there's a lot of IMAX closeups

1:19:27

in that movie as there are in Oppenheimer. And it

1:19:29

made me just kind of reflect on the power of

1:19:31

closeups on Killian Murphy's face in Oppenheimer and how absorbing

1:19:33

they are and kind of what a special effect they

1:19:35

are in and of themselves. And

1:19:38

yeah, as we keep saying, like when a movie is

1:19:40

winning a lot, it keeps winning. And he is

1:19:43

the movie as much as the cinematography or the

1:19:45

editing or the score. And when

1:19:47

you kind of see it, when you see the dust

1:19:50

clear, you're like, oh, yeah, of course he has to win.

1:19:52

So I look forward to seeing his speech. Yep.

1:19:56

Okay, let's do Best Actress. We

1:19:58

have gone back and forth about this. It

1:20:00

is always going to be our favorite category to

1:20:02

talk about. I think even in years when it's not

1:20:04

actually that suspenseful, we're going to gravitate back to it

1:20:06

again and again. But I think very

1:20:09

similar to last year where it was down to Kate

1:20:11

Blanchard and Michelle Yeoh, we are down to Lily Gladstone

1:20:13

and Emma Stone. The Infinity Stones as

1:20:15

they call each other and now I call them. We

1:20:19

predicted Lily Gladstone. Kara, you wrote it. Do

1:20:21

you want to run down why? I

1:20:24

think after

1:20:26

Lily won the SAG, I think that was

1:20:28

what helped solidify this one in my mind.

1:20:32

It's been interesting the whole way through because I

1:20:35

didn't think that Emma would

1:20:37

have ... I mean, I absolutely think

1:20:39

she deserves a nomination and

1:20:41

another Oscar. But I'm

1:20:44

still surprised that the Academy so wholly embraced

1:20:46

poor things. So Lily's

1:20:49

just the heart of that movie.

1:20:52

I think there was a little bit

1:20:54

of conversation about whether supporting or best

1:20:57

actress. But it seems ...

1:20:59

All of it's so legit to me and her

1:21:02

story is great. I

1:21:04

think David, you talked last week about her presence in

1:21:06

the room and how she can come into her own

1:21:08

this season and will hopefully get

1:21:10

to do so much more after this

1:21:12

season and with a win. I

1:21:15

feel like there's a potential spoiler here in Sandra Huler.

1:21:19

Where Gladstone and Stone split a

1:21:21

vote? I just want to take

1:21:23

us back a few years. Here's something I believe

1:21:25

I wrote. The only potential

1:21:28

spoiler here could be if too many voters figure

1:21:30

close a lock and then vote for another personal

1:21:32

favorite like Olivia Coleman. But that seems pretty far

1:21:34

fetched at this point. I

1:21:37

just think going into this category with conventional wisdom

1:21:39

often serves you well, yes. But

1:21:41

sometimes last minute passion

1:21:43

picks can succeed like

1:21:46

they did in Olivia Coleman's. I just think that

1:21:48

if of the five, Huler is really lurking there

1:21:50

for a movie that, like as David said earlier

1:21:52

in this episode, the Academy loves. That

1:21:56

would be an interesting development. your

1:22:00

right care and predicting a lily at the moment. But

1:22:03

not that I don't, I mean listen, we are

1:22:05

craving a surprise, right? Like I would love, give

1:22:08

us some surprises, Sunday. All

1:22:11

extremely deserving, which is nice. Like we

1:22:13

don't have to be bummed if it's,

1:22:15

you know, like a Rami Malek situation

1:22:17

or anything like that. Sure.

1:22:20

Sorry to Rami, who I think is great in other things.

1:22:23

Great Knopenheimer. Well, he's good at

1:22:25

Knopenheimer. Let me be a partisan, all right?

1:22:28

I don't know if he's in the top 10

1:22:31

of that movie. I

1:22:34

do, I agree with Richard. There's

1:22:37

also this X factor of a lot

1:22:39

of academy members discovering the zone of

1:22:41

interest at the same time that anatomy

1:22:44

of a fall is surging. And Sandra

1:22:46

just being this face of the

1:22:49

international transformation of the academy,

1:22:52

giving two completely different equally

1:22:54

brilliant performances, only

1:22:56

perhaps helpfully nominated for one. Of

1:22:59

them, I think she's going

1:23:01

to get a lot of support. I do not think

1:23:03

it will be enough given that this has been such

1:23:05

a seesaw between the two. I'm

1:23:07

like 51. Well, no, I do think Sandra's like

1:23:10

in a lower, I'm probably like 41, Lily, 40 Emma, 20 Sandra. Well,

1:23:18

why don't you do that math? 19

1:23:20

Sandra, I guess would be 100. There

1:23:23

we go. We've been recording a long

1:23:25

time. My sense of logic is slowly

1:23:27

dissipating. The

1:23:29

reason that I would go with Emma is

1:23:32

that I think that

1:23:34

there is more love for poor things overall that seems

1:23:36

kind of clear by the fact that we've talked about

1:23:38

it so much more just in

1:23:41

this conversation, in conversation

1:23:43

for other wins. She

1:23:46

has won an Oscar

1:23:48

before, but I don't think

1:23:50

that that prohibits voters

1:23:52

from giving people additional Oscars

1:23:54

rather quickly. Just ask

1:23:57

Frances McDormand, who's also won because she was

1:23:59

in the strong movie, Nomadland.

1:24:01

Same with Jodie Foster's second Oscar win, which

1:24:04

happened just four years after her first.

1:24:06

We talked about. Yeah. And I

1:24:08

think the

1:24:11

reason for Lily is, number one,

1:24:13

the narrative is really strong and it's something

1:24:16

that she has been really central to

1:24:19

for that movie from the very inception of

1:24:21

that campaign. Really Smart Move by Apple is

1:24:23

paid off. And it's in

1:24:26

some ways what Best Actress can do, which

1:24:28

is a discovery award.

1:24:31

Lily Glaussen has been in this industry for a number of

1:24:33

years, but for a lot of people watching that movie, it

1:24:36

was like a holy shit, who is

1:24:38

this moment? Yeah. And I

1:24:40

think that that has a, this

1:24:42

is the category, whether

1:24:44

it's even somebody like Brie Larson for Room

1:24:47

where that can happen. So

1:24:49

those are the two sides. The

1:24:51

reason I went with Lily in the end is she

1:24:54

won SAG and SAG is

1:24:56

later, happened during voting. And

1:24:59

so I guess if you want

1:25:01

to sign a momentum, there it is.

1:25:03

But I mean, to me, it's just so close.

1:25:05

Yeah. Plus one question I have, David,

1:25:07

you might answer this is how often does

1:25:09

the Academy like to make history

1:25:11

because there's also that part of

1:25:13

Lily's story, which is excellent. I

1:25:16

don't think you can predict that

1:25:18

way. I mean, I don't

1:25:21

think that they, I think

1:25:23

they actually resist that to be honest with you. Like I

1:25:25

don't think Michelle Yeoh won because of that. I think she

1:25:27

won because she gave a great performance in the mood that

1:25:29

they liked the most, you know, and they

1:25:31

didn't end up liking her that much. Just

1:25:34

use last year's example. So I don't think that they

1:25:36

vote that way. I think

1:25:38

that they can fall in love with a story

1:25:40

and a person on

1:25:44

the trail. And that is sort of

1:25:46

synonymous with making history this year. So

1:25:48

it's a factor,

1:25:51

but I think that it would

1:25:53

have to come down to, you know,

1:25:56

them loving the performance. Yep. I

1:25:59

do wonder if we're in. and for some

1:26:01

internet chaos if Lilly doesn't win. We've

1:26:04

been talking about it internally a little bit. The people who

1:26:07

don't follow it that closely, who don't know that Emma Stone

1:26:09

is right there in the running and

1:26:11

how popular Poor Things is and have been kind

1:26:13

of, so this idea that the Academy could make

1:26:15

history, I don't know how much we

1:26:17

want to base what we predict on Twitter meltdowns. But

1:26:20

it does seem like something that could happen. And I

1:26:22

want to at least be emotionally prepared for it, even if

1:26:24

I think there would be very good reasons for either

1:26:26

of them to win. The Oscars is weirdly, the Academy

1:26:28

is weirdly, I don't want to use the word

1:26:30

good, but they are very adept at

1:26:32

tuning all of that out. You

1:26:35

think about Hopkins beating Chadwick Boseman a couple

1:26:38

of years ago, where the kind of

1:26:40

social sentiment, the popular sentiment was like,

1:26:43

give Chadwick Boseman an amazing actor this

1:26:45

posthumous award. People thought it was

1:26:47

going to happen so much so that they moved that category to the

1:26:49

end of the show and the

1:26:51

Academy. Steven Soderberg specifically. Yeah, I

1:26:54

love Steven's work, but not that maybe. And

1:26:58

then that's not what happened, because a lot

1:27:00

of these Academy voters barely even know

1:27:02

what Google is, let alone Twitter. So

1:27:06

yeah, I think it's hard to factor that in. I mean,

1:27:08

it would be amazing if that history was made on

1:27:10

Sunday, but we'll see. We really

1:27:13

do underestimate that as a crazy Oscar moment. Like

1:27:15

it's sandwiched between Moonlight, La La Lin, and The

1:27:17

Slap. And so it kind of gets overshadowed. But

1:27:19

that was such a crazy thing that happened at

1:27:21

the Oscars. And it happens it wasn't even there. Like

1:27:24

it was such a total mess. They

1:27:27

didn't let him zoom in. I

1:27:29

think he was asleep. Wasn't it like 3 in the

1:27:31

morning in Wales or wherever he was? Anyway.

1:27:34

But you weren't allowed to zoom in.

1:27:36

You had to be in the remote.

1:27:38

I forgot about that. In London. Aren't

1:27:41

we so right? Where Florian Zeller was there at that

1:27:43

place, but Hopkins was like, I'm too old for this

1:27:47

shit. All of us were like prepped to write some

1:27:49

big moving thing too with. Oh,

1:27:51

we all had those three rights ready to go. OK,

1:27:54

I think we can wrap this up and maybe lump together

1:27:56

Best Director and Best Picture since we

1:27:58

expect Oppenheimer to. win both

1:28:01

handily. We were asked

1:28:03

to do kind of an Instagram like state of the

1:28:05

race thing and you'd be like, all right what do

1:28:07

you think is gonna be first place, second place in

1:28:09

these? I was like I don't have the first clue

1:28:11

what would come in second place in either of these.

1:28:13

Like it's so obviously Oppenheimer in both. I don't know

1:28:16

if you guys have a hot take on who could

1:28:18

be a spoiler in either but yeah it's just gonna

1:28:20

be Chris Rinalin and then Emma Thomas. I assume we'll give

1:28:22

the speech for Oppenheimer for best picture. I

1:28:24

think pictured the only spoiler I see at the moment

1:28:26

is zone of interest weirdly. That is

1:28:28

wild. I think that

1:28:30

movie has a lot of momentum. Anatomy of a Fall. Anatomy

1:28:33

of a Fall yes for sure for sure

1:28:35

but I still think there

1:28:37

is some there are older members of the Academy institutional

1:28:39

bias. Anatomy of a Fall is a women's picture you

1:28:42

know I think that unfortunately that is a bias

1:28:44

that exists but I

1:28:46

don't know I think Oppenheimer is far and away

1:28:48

because it satisfies both traditionalists and people who are

1:28:50

looking at the really kind of cutting-edge craft and

1:28:53

it's timely but also historical biopic like

1:28:55

it's it's so many quadrants are being

1:28:58

filled there. I think I would

1:29:00

buy Jonathan Glazer a second place in the director

1:29:02

vote then more than zone of interest on a

1:29:04

preferential ballot in second place. Yeah that's right. Yeah

1:29:06

that's a tough one to pick too is who

1:29:09

would be a second place director. I honestly

1:29:12

don't I don't even know I yeah

1:29:15

I was reading some of the anonymous ballots

1:29:17

because I can't help myself and what striking

1:29:19

is like even if Oppenheimer is not first

1:29:21

on a ballot it's like second

1:29:24

or third maybe fourth it's

1:29:26

just and it is first on

1:29:28

a lot it's it's so far ahead I

1:29:30

don't think that this is a race. Yeah

1:29:32

I gotta get to these anonymous ballots have

1:29:34

been depriving myself. Oh yeah I don't know

1:29:36

if I would go down that road. Here's

1:29:39

my final question do you think Christopher Nolan

1:29:41

will be visibly emotional in any way or

1:29:43

will he handle this as placidly and and

1:29:46

gently as he has everything else? That

1:29:48

is a fun that is a great question. I hope

1:29:50

he's full weeping. It came true. I deserve

1:29:57

this. You know I'm

1:29:59

the in the world. He really

1:30:01

liked winning it all. He just ran

1:30:03

into greatest hits. Same question for

1:30:05

Killian, I think. I would think Nolan might

1:30:07

get more emotional than Killian would be my

1:30:10

best. Oh, you think? I was thinking

1:30:12

the opposite. That Killian might push

1:30:14

sweet non-emotive Killian over the edge.

1:30:16

That's what you always wonder, right? Who's going to break when they

1:30:18

finally get to the finish line? Yeah.

1:30:21

Not break. That sounds bad. Who's going to let it all

1:30:23

out when they finally get to the finish line? I

1:30:25

feel like it's more possible for Killian than for Nolan,

1:30:27

just because Nolan, it's been such a

1:30:30

steamroll. I feel like that's

1:30:32

something very measured, too. She's really stayed on message.

1:30:34

I'd be interested

1:30:36

about that level of emotionality. Of the

1:30:39

four acting winners, Danny

1:30:41

Jr. gives the most movie... I mean, Dave Vines

1:30:43

speeches have been great, too. I don't

1:30:46

know. That's a tough call to make,

1:30:48

actually. I will say, Christopher

1:30:50

Nolan seemed really pleased,

1:30:53

is not the word, but the DGA, he

1:30:55

seemed really, really honored. Yeah.

1:30:57

I think this does mean a lot to him. I

1:31:00

think he's just a kind of measured guy,

1:31:02

and that's part of his success. I

1:31:05

would be interested in, you know, and I'm not part of

1:31:07

Oppenheimer, where they're taking side bets on whether they'll ignite the

1:31:10

atmosphere. I want to see some side bets

1:31:12

on who will cry first, and

1:31:14

then maybe who gets... We can come

1:31:16

up with a magic for most emotional, so that's something else

1:31:18

to add to the list for next week. He's

1:31:22

got his running shoes on. That

1:31:25

does it for today's episode. We'll

1:31:27

be back early-ish. On

1:31:39

Monday, we'll be recording our Innocent Reactions episode

1:31:41

to the Oscars, to the Vanity Fair Oscar

1:31:43

Party, to everything else that happens on Sunday

1:31:45

night. I hope it all goes well. We

1:31:47

hope all of you who wrote us about

1:31:49

your elaborate foods that you'll be eating on

1:31:51

Oscar Sunday, that it all goes well. Please

1:31:54

feel free to send us pictures. Obviously,

1:31:57

we'll be covering the Oscars minute-to-minute on

1:31:59

Sunday night. David and Kara will

1:32:01

be at the Oscars themselves. Richard and I will

1:32:03

be keeping an eye on Vanity Fair's live blog.

1:32:05

Yes, live blog is still a thing and actually

1:32:08

a pretty useful way to follow the Oscars and

1:32:10

follow along with the rest of us. And

1:32:12

if you catch Richard tweeting, you can join me in being like,

1:32:14

Richard, put it in the live blog. Put it in the

1:32:16

live blog. Put it in all that you'll love us for

1:32:19

free. But yes, we'll have a lot to talk

1:32:21

about come Monday. And then we will

1:32:23

have another episode next week just as a scheduling

1:32:25

thing. We'll have our Monday episode and there'll be

1:32:27

another surprise coming on Thursday before we resume our

1:32:30

regular schedule. So please join us

1:32:33

between now and Oscar night and an Oscar

1:32:35

night at vanityfair.com on social media at VF

1:32:37

Awards Insider and on our own. I am

1:32:40

at Katie Rich and Richard. Right.

1:32:42

But on Sunday, I'm just on the live blog. Thank

1:32:45

you very much. And David. David

1:32:47

Canfield, 97. And Kara.

1:32:50

Kara J. Warner. Our

1:32:53

editor and producer is Brett Fuchs. And this

1:32:55

week's awards for the best prediction for what

1:32:57

will win best picture next year goes to

1:33:00

David Canfield. Often number two.