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Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Released Friday, 19th April 2024
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Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright Is a MAJOR RISK!

Friday, 19th April 2024
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0:02

It's the Lockdown Podcast

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McMuffin. Buyer

1:10

beware on Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright

1:13

and we'll explain why on this episode

1:15

of the Lockdown Dynasty Football Podcast. You

1:23

are a Lockdown Dynasty Football, part

1:26

of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your

1:30

team every day. Here

1:32

are your hosts, Marcus Mosher and Kate

1:34

Madjuk. Welcome

1:37

back to the Lockdown Dynasty Football

1:39

Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network,

1:41

your team every day. We'd like

1:43

to thank you for making us your first listen

1:45

of the day. Today's episode is

1:47

brought to you by Monopoly Go. I admit

1:50

it. I have a competitive side and it

1:52

is a big fan of Monopoly Go, the

1:54

mobile hit twist on a classic game monopoly.

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So join your friends and download Monopoly

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Go. So now free on the app

2:01

store or Google Play. I

2:03

am your host Marcus Mosier. You can follow

2:05

me on Twitter at Marcus underscore Mosier. Joining

2:08

me today as always is Kate Machuk. You

2:10

can follow her on Twitter at Kate Machuk.

2:12

We are less than a week away from

2:15

the NFL draft. It's our last show of

2:17

the week. And today we are talking about

2:19

Jalen Wright, a speedy

2:21

running back from Tennessee, who

2:23

I'm gonna admit Kate right off the top. I

2:26

really struggle with when I watch his tape, we're

2:28

gonna break down his dynasty value, some

2:30

player comps, what the analytics say

2:33

about him, but what did you see when you

2:35

watched the tape? Let's start

2:37

with the basics. So Jalen Wright, you mentioned running

2:39

back out of Tennessee, 5'10", 216 pounds. So

2:43

has that nice thick frame. And

2:46

what you're going to see on the

2:48

tape is an athlete. He is explosive.

2:50

And that is how he wins on

2:52

the football field. And that's

2:55

what you're gonna see on the tape. Now,

2:57

never held necessarily like a full-time role in

3:00

the Tennessee offense, never had more than 150 carries in a

3:02

season, never

3:05

had a significant role

3:08

within all phases

3:10

of the game on the offense.

3:12

Career high, 1154 scrimmage yards this

3:14

past season, but

3:16

only four touchdowns. Career

3:19

high in terms of touchdown total came

3:21

actually last season in 2022, but

3:24

he didn't have the yardage total. So he hasn't

3:26

necessarily put together a complete

3:28

season within the Tennessee

3:30

offense. But Marcus,

3:32

you look at the combine, you look

3:34

at his performance there, three

3:36

point, or sorry, 438

3:40

40 yard dash 95th percentile for running back, tested

3:43

extremely well, 86 percentile

3:45

in vertical jump, 98th percentile abroad

3:47

jump, has all

3:49

of the markings of a running

3:52

back that I think people

3:54

are going to be really excited on paper. I

3:58

think they're going to be very excited about Jalen Wright. on paper,

4:00

but I share your similar

4:02

concerns because Marcus here, here's the

4:05

biggest red flags for

4:07

me when it comes to Jalen Wright. I'm

4:10

concerned about how proven he

4:12

really is as a running

4:14

back because what we've seen

4:16

over the past several years is that

4:18

prospects coming out of the Tennessee, Tennessee's

4:21

offense, they are generally

4:24

running such a wide open scheme

4:26

that. It's really hard

4:28

to gauge. Like we saw Cedric Tillman

4:30

and Jalen Hyatt come out of that

4:32

offense. I don't think anybody even knows

4:34

who they really are as NFL players

4:36

because they were asked

4:38

to run and they were asked to be

4:41

pretty much wide open and there wasn't a

4:43

whole lot of like nuance to that offense.

4:45

And I think that translated

4:48

to Jalen Wright's evaluation

4:50

as a prospect as well. Everything

4:52

was so wide open, didn't see stacked

4:55

boxes, saw just four stacked

4:57

boxes in his entire final

4:59

season with Tennessee, which speaks

5:01

to literally just how wide

5:03

open the entire football field

5:05

is the way that they scheme, which

5:09

can make for fun football to

5:11

watch, but when it

5:13

comes to evaluating how that's going

5:15

to translate to the NFL field,

5:17

like you're not asked to do as many things.

5:19

You're not asked to make as many decisions as

5:22

a split second on the football field, because you

5:25

might just be running wild and Jalen

5:27

Wright, he's an incredible athlete. So like once

5:30

he has space, which he had a lot

5:32

of a Tennessee, he can run

5:34

free. Still didn't translate

5:36

to touchdown production here in this past

5:38

season. I have a

5:40

lot of concerns, but you look

5:42

at the guy and the athlete and

5:45

you can see that like he's

5:47

got, he's got the

5:49

athletic traits to be a

5:51

outstanding running back. It's just, I

5:54

don't think he's a true NFL running back just yet.

5:57

So I want to give the positives first. before

6:00

we crushed the kid because there aren't

6:02

many running back that are over 210

6:04

pounds that run in the

6:06

four threes and have SEC production. That

6:09

part of it's really, really good. And

6:12

it's not just that he ran fast

6:14

at the combine. He plays really fast.

6:16

So give him credit. He is somebody

6:18

that can play fast

6:21

when he has a runway. That's

6:24

my issue is most of

6:26

his production came when there was just

6:28

massive holes. I was watching his tape

6:30

this morning and there was

6:32

a play. It was first down. There's

6:34

three defensive linemen on the field and there's

6:36

one linebacker in the picture on the all

6:39

22 and they run the

6:41

ball. Not surprisingly, when you

6:43

have five guys blocking four, there's

6:45

a huge, huge run lane

6:47

for him to run through. He

6:50

just didn't have to make a

6:52

lot of NFL runs or NFL

6:54

decisions. And I'm not saying

6:56

that he can't or he won't be able

6:58

to. We just never

7:00

saw it. And I have a lot of

7:03

questions about how long is

7:05

it going to take him to become an

7:07

NFL runner? What is his vision like? Because

7:10

even when there were times where he

7:12

had heavier boxes, I

7:15

didn't always like what I saw on tape. So I

7:18

project him as a player

7:21

who's going to be a part of a committee early

7:23

on who brings some juice to

7:25

your offense. You give the ball to

7:27

on jet sweeps, the screen passes and

7:29

wide zone runs, but it

7:31

might be a wild cape before he is in

7:33

every downback. If he ever gets there. Very

7:37

fair. And I mean, let's hit

7:39

on the positives just a little bit more.

7:42

Breakaway run rate, 84th percentile over

7:44

the passes. And he had a

7:46

breakaway run on one out

7:48

of every 10 rushing attempts that ranked 37th

7:50

among 226

7:53

qualifying running backs over the past two seasons. That

7:57

is just kind of the testament. He

7:59

doesn't just test. Well like you said, he

8:01

plays just as fast as he packed.

8:03

like. This. Is not a one

8:05

trick pony where the guy shows up. He's

8:08

really good at running the forty yard-know he

8:10

saw that burst. In.

8:12

His entire playing. Sally thought all over

8:15

the tape he's got. He's.

8:17

Got enough and birth that like a

8:19

even in the Nfl if he finds

8:21

the right the whole. You.

8:23

Gonna be gone cause like it's It's

8:25

just really hard to find that kind

8:27

of player that. Has the

8:30

the type of bills that he

8:32

has with. Match with that

8:34

kind of burst and athleticism. Them. Again,

8:38

The. Renowned and questions just come down

8:40

to how well does his game

8:42

translate to the NFL level because

8:44

you can have burst for days.

8:47

If you don't have the decision

8:49

making component which. I'm not

8:51

even saying it eight. he's a poor decision

8:53

maker. I'm saying. I don't think we can

8:55

judge his decision making based on what we've

8:58

seen in Tennessee Select. That is

9:00

a glaring question. Mark: What does he do

9:02

against. Ah, it'll a are

9:04

in a situation where he doesn't have

9:06

the advantage in terms of. The.

9:09

Off and to line defenses wine

9:11

mash up like what is he

9:13

gonna do what he faced staff

9:15

boxes because again for. Total.

9:17

Stack Box is based on

9:19

a hundred and thirty eight

9:21

runs last year. And

9:23

in. That's absurd. That

9:25

absolutely absurd like it. You know it.

9:27

He ranks fifth among Power Five running

9:30

backs. a thirty five explosive plays on

9:32

the season which again like you see

9:34

the burst and athleticism them but. The

9:38

circumstances couldn't have been more. Ideal

9:40

to. Lend itself to that

9:42

side of production and that's not to take

9:45

anything away from him. But I think both

9:47

of us. Are. Just a

9:49

little bit wary about how his game

9:51

will translate. The Nfl. Now.

9:53

i had a lot of the same concerns

9:56

about of on a to last year or

9:58

a channel i was messed up I don't

10:00

know how to pronounce his name. But somebody who was,

10:02

you know, came from a kind

10:04

of gimmicky offense, didn't move piles, you

10:06

know, mostly an outside runner, but he

10:08

landed in a perfect situation and all

10:10

of a sudden he's a top 10

10:12

dynasty running back. So we're not completely

10:14

dismissing the idea that he

10:17

could have a similar path. And

10:19

actually, I think he's far more durable than what

10:22

he ever was, right? And he's 210 pounds compared

10:24

to 180 pounds. But

10:27

I have similar concerns about his game. I

10:29

think landing spots can be very important for

10:31

not only how quickly he can get on

10:33

the field, but how effective he'll

10:35

be in the NFL. Okay,

10:38

I want to dive into some of

10:40

the advanced analytics for Jalen, right? Because

10:42

some of them are very, very good.

10:44

There's a couple that are also a

10:46

little discouraging. We will get to that

10:48

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We wanna let you know that the

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13:20

All right, Kate, let's dive into the analytics with Jill

13:22

and Wright. What do we got? You've

13:25

got kind of a mixed bag,

13:27

which again, like generally speaking, you're

13:29

gonna love the film, but from

13:31

a perspective of the advanced stats,

13:33

we looked at the advanced metrics

13:35

from PFF over the last two

13:37

seasons, 89th percentile in

13:40

terms of PFF, Russian grade, misforce

13:42

tackles per attempt, 87th percentile,

13:44

yards after contact per attempt, 91st. You're

13:47

gonna love all of those metrics. Where he

13:50

struggled a bit more, as a

13:52

receiver, 17th

13:55

percentile in both PFF receiving

13:57

grade and PFF. yards

14:00

per route run Again,

14:02

I mentioned the the breakaway

14:04

run potential eighty-fourth percentile there

14:08

But let's talk about the fumbles

14:10

five fumbles over the last two seasons on

14:12

306 touches That

14:15

is one point six percent Fumble rate

14:17

that ranked two hundred and ninth out

14:19

of two hundred and twenty nine running

14:21

backs in that span. So Kind

14:25

of a mixed bag like I think you

14:27

see when he has the ability to be

14:29

sort of a pure runner he

14:32

excels unproven as

14:35

a receiving prospect and

14:38

needs to work on the

14:40

ball control situation, which I do think is

14:42

kind of a red flag considering how Generally

14:46

open this offense was like he's gonna be

14:48

facing a lot more contact and a lot

14:51

more Physicality

14:54

Probably at the next level again, like

14:56

I think scheme is going to be

14:58

very important for him I

15:01

you know kind of bummed that they had

15:03

made that investment in Devin H And last

15:05

year because I think that dolphins could be

15:08

a really interesting fit for you know

15:10

Maybe a team that doesn't have

15:12

necessarily that size component

15:14

They have the speed component, but they could really

15:17

use a guy that has a little bit more

15:19

size to him And Jalen

15:21

Wright could fit that bill But

15:24

like he's going to need to be

15:26

schemed probably to a wide open offense if he's going

15:28

to have immediate fantasy

15:30

relevance and I

15:32

think the kind of mixed bag in terms

15:35

of his advanced metrics is a Testament

15:38

to some of these concerns that we have If

15:41

you if you don't mind Can you throw back up

15:43

that graphic of the advanced stats with Jalen Wright if

15:46

you're watching with us on YouTube a

15:48

lot? To like in terms of the Russian grave miss

15:50

tackles four shards after contact. I will

15:52

say some of those are a little bit Deceiving

15:55

because it's one of these if he breaks

15:57

one tackle and takes it 70 yards like

16:00

you're getting a lot of yards after contact.

16:02

The one that makes me the most nervous,

16:04

Kate, is the fumble rate.

16:06

He has five fumbles over

16:08

the last two years. And you're

16:11

not talking about somebody who had a ton of touches

16:13

during that span. It's less than 300 total carries over

16:17

the last two years. That's the

16:19

fastest way to find yourself on the bench in

16:21

the NFL, as if you can't hold

16:24

onto the ball. And then on top of that, I

16:28

think he's pretty raw as a pass blocker. So

16:30

if he's not going to block and he's not

16:32

going to hold onto the football, I

16:34

just worry that he's going to be somebody who week

16:37

to week, we just don't know what his role is.

16:41

At the same time, if he

16:43

gets top 100 draft capital, like so many

16:45

are expecting, it's just hard

16:47

to find these types of running backs that have

16:49

this kind of speed at his

16:51

size. So he is really a

16:53

mixed bag for me, and

16:56

somebody that I'm having a hard time

16:58

figuring out. Which is why

17:00

I think the draft capital component and

17:02

the landing spot are going to be so

17:04

key for a Jalen Wright.

17:06

I almost think that based

17:08

on where he's at as a prospect, at least

17:11

based on my evaluation, he's a

17:13

guy that I would like to see go to a

17:15

system with maybe somebody to

17:18

play behind. Imagine

17:20

him going to the Houston

17:22

Texans. I think

17:25

that would be such an awesome thing. He

17:27

can play behind Joe Mixon, use Joe Mixon

17:29

as that primary back in year one. Take

17:32

some time, learn the

17:35

NFL offense, learn the

17:37

NFL hits, learn everything there

17:39

is to learn about the

17:42

vision component, and in seeing the field,

17:44

the way that an NFL running back

17:47

sees the field, what kind of

17:49

defenses you're going to see at the next level. And

17:51

then have him take

17:53

over, because I do think that speed

17:56

is that component that the

17:58

Houston Texans in their world. run game

18:00

are grossly missing. I thought,

18:02

you know, Tony Pollard would have been

18:05

a great fit there because they needed an explosion

18:07

element. And I think Jalen Wright,

18:10

like, let's say he goes to

18:12

the Houston Texans, that would be

18:14

a big win for me. But if he goes

18:16

to a situation where day

18:19

one out of the gate, let's say

18:21

New York Giants, like I don't think

18:23

they're going to give Devin Singletary 260

18:25

plus touches. No, no. He'd

18:28

be asked to shoulder I think a lot more

18:30

and I don't necessarily know that he'd be ready

18:32

to succeed day one. That's why where

18:34

he lands is going to be so important. But

18:37

I also could see we've

18:39

done Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson, those

18:41

guys at least project as like every

18:43

down one a running backs that

18:45

maybe you pair with somebody else to be a change

18:48

of pace. Jalen Wright is the

18:50

change of pace running back. And that makes me

18:52

nervous about his landing spot because right

18:55

now, most NFL draft experts have

18:57

Jalen Wright mocked, you know, going

18:59

somewhere in the third round. Okay,

19:02

you know, once we get to the third round,

19:04

teams aren't so much concerned about neither just taking some

19:06

of the best players available. So like,

19:08

it won't shock me. If

19:10

a team like Green Bay at the bottom

19:12

of round three, they've got a pick 91.

19:15

It's like, Hey, we, we signed Josh Jacobs. We

19:18

have AJ Dillon on a one year deal. Jalen

19:21

Wright gives us something different that neither of those guys

19:23

have, which is home run speed. Let's have them on

19:25

our offense and give them seven or eight touches a

19:27

game. And we'll see how it

19:30

looks two years from now. That's my

19:32

concern with Jalen Wright. He's going to get into

19:34

a situation where he's viewed as a

19:36

change of pace guy and not as a one eight

19:38

or two or one B. Yeah.

19:41

And I, I think that's kind of fair. Like

19:43

that's a very fair evaluation, I think for what

19:45

we're getting out of the gate.

19:47

And I think honestly, based on our

19:50

evaluation, these players, fantasy managers might be

19:52

surprised to hear just how highly he's

19:54

being valued in dynasty compared

19:57

to two of the other running

19:59

backs in this class broke. and Benson who we

20:01

both covered and we are both very bullish on.

20:04

Jalen Wright's value I don't

20:06

think is all that dissimilar from either of

20:08

those running backs and Wright is a much

20:11

bigger project at this point in his career

20:13

so I'm excited to

20:15

get into his dynasty evaluation and where

20:17

we have him ranked because I gotta

20:21

be honest I was shocked when I

20:23

saw the ADP. Let's

20:26

uh let's get to his dynasty value and some

20:28

player comps next. This

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back to the live on Dynasty Football

22:01

Podcast, we are discussing Tennessee running back

22:04

Jaylen Wright who Jay and

22:06

I both have some mixed feelings

22:08

on to say the least. Uh

22:11

where is he being drafted right

22:13

now among rookie running backs and

22:15

overall? Right now,

22:17

Jaylen Wright is coming in at

22:19

RB three and uh uh dynasty

22:22

rookie dynasty ADP. What

22:24

I think is probably more interesting cuz I

22:26

don't think that's overly egregious. He is not

22:28

my RV three spoiler alert

22:30

but I can

22:32

understand why you look at the traits

22:34

and athleticism and the the

22:37

potential upside cuz let me say like

22:39

I do think that he could be

22:41

a high upside player in the right

22:43

situation with development

22:47

but um I think

22:49

his overall value uh among veterans

22:52

and uh in startup

22:54

and and all that alike super

22:57

high he's being drafted on average

22:59

as RB twenty-eight RB

23:01

twenty-eight and that is just

23:04

a few spots between Trey Benson who like

23:06

you said earlier, we kinda project as a

23:09

very capable work horse that can absorb

23:12

a three down role and in function that

23:14

kinda day one like as soon as he

23:16

gets the the the ground

23:18

running, right? Like he's being

23:20

drafted just behind Tony Pollard,

23:22

David Montgomery who again,

23:25

I think you know maybe you're kind

23:27

of looking at Jalen Wright and

23:29

you're saying well, I want a guy that could

23:31

project as an RB one but I think

23:34

you're probably gonna pass up on a lot

23:36

of guys with immediate

23:40

contributor potential. Um

23:42

if you're gonna be taking Jalen Wright

23:45

as high, he's he's being drafted ahead of

23:47

uh Zach Charbonnet who

23:49

I think is a much better

23:51

overall running back albeit in a

23:53

more competitive backfield alongside Kenneth Walker.

23:55

He's being drafted behind Aaron Jones

23:57

who like forget about it. He's

24:00

He's an old guy, but like I

24:02

do not think he has shown anywhere for the

24:04

worse and one of the most smooth

24:07

receivers in this class, RB

24:09

32, come on, Brian Robinson, who I'm

24:11

not even a big fan of, but

24:14

I know you like a lot Marcus,

24:17

drafted several spots behind Jaylen

24:19

Warren. I think this evaluation tells me

24:21

that people are very enamored with

24:24

the build and the athleticism

24:26

and aren't necessarily evaluating the

24:30

prospect. So

24:33

I can, no,

24:35

no, I compare him to like,

24:38

you could say I'm being a means though.

24:40

I'm being a means though. You're not being mean.

24:44

I think he's like a better version of justice Hill. Um,

24:47

and a little similar to Keith Mitchell, who we

24:49

saw come out of the draft last year, funny

24:51

enough, both Baltimore Ravens running backs, useful

24:54

players, but

24:56

not some people or players that project to

24:58

be. Yeah. Now I think if you want

25:01

to have like a high end comp here,

25:03

I can see like him being Raheem Mostar in

25:05

the NFL, somebody who over 200 pounds, it's extremely

25:09

fast running back. But

25:11

as we've seen with most art, like it takes,

25:13

it's taken him a long time to find the

25:15

right team and find the right role. And even

25:17

the dolphins with most are very cautious about giving

25:19

him too much work. Um, I

25:22

think he's a good player who

25:24

I have major questions about his

25:26

dynasty value. I'm probably more

25:29

willing to let somebody else gamble on the

25:31

speed and the upside and I'll take, I'll,

25:33

I'll wait in my draft and I'll take

25:35

a braille and Alan. I'll take a Blake

25:37

quorum. I'll take my guy, Audrey estimate

25:39

much, much later. And I think you'll your

25:41

guy, okay. We are, we're going to have

25:43

to fight over Audrey. Are

25:46

you a fan? He's my RB3

25:48

in this class, Marcus. I don't mean to, I

25:52

don't mean to be, uh, giving any

25:54

spoilers here for some future episodes, but

25:56

there is no running back that I think

25:58

I'm probably more Sean versus consensus

26:01

then Audrey guesstimate forget the four seven

26:03

one forty give me Audrey guesstimate over

26:05

jail and right every single day Of

26:07

the week twenty four seven and I'm

26:10

all in jail and right again

26:12

I think what people are going

26:14

to get from him is very dependent on Situation

26:17

I think from a long-term dynasty

26:19

perspective his best prospect is landing

26:21

in a situation where he can

26:25

Play behind a starting running

26:27

back. I mentioned the Houston Texans. Are

26:29

there any other fits that you think

26:31

would be? Beneficial not

26:33

just like for year one value, but I

26:35

think what we need

26:37

to consider with Jalen Wright is the

26:39

long-term Projection and

26:41

development of him at the next level. I

26:44

think like Cleveland would be an outstanding landing spot They

26:46

pick it 85 in the third round I

26:49

think that one makes a lot of sense come in

26:51

play with your room for play with whatever version you

26:53

get of Nick Chubb I think there's

26:55

a lot of teams at the back end of round

26:57

three Tampa Bay I think you and

26:59

I aren't the biggest Rashad white fans, but I think

27:01

he makes sense in that offense Kansas

27:03

City right if they're a little bit nervous

27:06

about Isaiah Pacheco and they want to keep

27:08

that speed element I'll also mention

27:10

the 49ers who always want speed at the running

27:12

back position Elijah Mitchell

27:14

going into the final year of his contract. He's

27:17

been unable to stay healthy Christian

27:19

McCaffrey is getting up there in age I

27:21

do think there's a lot of teams at the

27:23

back end of round three that would be really

27:25

really intriguing for his long-term dynasty outlook I Just

27:29

I'm a little hesitant to think though that he's

27:31

gonna have Early

27:33

returns where he gets drafted So

27:35

for me I would rather just see him

27:37

go to a team like that where I

27:39

trust that to eventually get him involved Rather

27:42

than going to a team like the Giants

27:44

where maybe there's more opportunities for touches right

27:47

away All

27:49

very fair. All right, that

27:51

is it for today's show We want to thank

27:53

you for making locked on dynasty football your first

27:55

listen every single day on Monday

27:58

show We're gonna break down Wisconsin

28:00

running back Braelynn Allen

28:02

on Tuesday show we will do Blake

28:04

Corum for Michigan We're

28:07

gonna try to figure out a time to do Audrey estimate

28:09

because you and I both love Auster cast it may maybe

28:11

we'll combine a couple of these shows together Because

28:14

we're for big Audrey Estebate fans wanted

28:16

to let everybody know on

28:19

next Wednesday show with Matt Williamson We

28:21

are gonna do a two round Super

28:24

flex mock draft just the rookies

28:26

just a rookie draft ahead of the NFL

28:29

draft And then we'll do one pretty quickly

28:31

after the draft just to see how much

28:33

things change It's always a

28:35

really fun exercise So make sure you're downloading

28:37

the podcast wherever you get your podcast. We

28:39

are free and available on all platforms Go

28:42

follow Kate on Twitter at Kate module.

28:45

I'm at Marcus underscore Mosher. Have a

28:47

great weekend We'll see you back

28:49

here on Monday to get you ready for draft week You

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