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McMuffin. Buyer
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beware on Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright
1:13
and we'll explain why on this episode
1:15
of the Lockdown Dynasty Football Podcast. You
1:23
are a Lockdown Dynasty Football, part
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of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your
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team every day. Here
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are your hosts, Marcus Mosher and Kate
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Madjuk. Welcome
1:37
back to the Lockdown Dynasty Football
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Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network,
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your team every day. We'd like
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store or Google Play. I
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am your host Marcus Mosier. You can follow
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me today as always is Kate Machuk. You
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can follow her on Twitter at Kate Machuk.
2:12
We are less than a week away from
2:15
the NFL draft. It's our last show of
2:17
the week. And today we are talking about
2:19
Jalen Wright, a speedy
2:21
running back from Tennessee, who
2:23
I'm gonna admit Kate right off the top. I
2:26
really struggle with when I watch his tape, we're
2:28
gonna break down his dynasty value, some
2:30
player comps, what the analytics say
2:33
about him, but what did you see when you
2:35
watched the tape? Let's start
2:37
with the basics. So Jalen Wright, you mentioned running
2:39
back out of Tennessee, 5'10", 216 pounds. So
2:43
has that nice thick frame. And
2:46
what you're going to see on the
2:48
tape is an athlete. He is explosive.
2:50
And that is how he wins on
2:52
the football field. And that's
2:55
what you're gonna see on the tape. Now,
2:57
never held necessarily like a full-time role in
3:00
the Tennessee offense, never had more than 150 carries in a
3:02
season, never
3:05
had a significant role
3:08
within all phases
3:10
of the game on the offense.
3:12
Career high, 1154 scrimmage yards this
3:14
past season, but
3:16
only four touchdowns. Career
3:19
high in terms of touchdown total came
3:21
actually last season in 2022, but
3:24
he didn't have the yardage total. So he hasn't
3:26
necessarily put together a complete
3:28
season within the Tennessee
3:30
offense. But Marcus,
3:32
you look at the combine, you look
3:34
at his performance there, three
3:36
point, or sorry, 438
3:40
40 yard dash 95th percentile for running back, tested
3:43
extremely well, 86 percentile
3:45
in vertical jump, 98th percentile abroad
3:47
jump, has all
3:49
of the markings of a running
3:52
back that I think people
3:54
are going to be really excited on paper. I
3:58
think they're going to be very excited about Jalen Wright. on paper,
4:00
but I share your similar
4:02
concerns because Marcus here, here's the
4:05
biggest red flags for
4:07
me when it comes to Jalen Wright. I'm
4:10
concerned about how proven he
4:12
really is as a running
4:14
back because what we've seen
4:16
over the past several years is that
4:18
prospects coming out of the Tennessee, Tennessee's
4:21
offense, they are generally
4:24
running such a wide open scheme
4:26
that. It's really hard
4:28
to gauge. Like we saw Cedric Tillman
4:30
and Jalen Hyatt come out of that
4:32
offense. I don't think anybody even knows
4:34
who they really are as NFL players
4:36
because they were asked
4:38
to run and they were asked to be
4:41
pretty much wide open and there wasn't a
4:43
whole lot of like nuance to that offense.
4:45
And I think that translated
4:48
to Jalen Wright's evaluation
4:50
as a prospect as well. Everything
4:52
was so wide open, didn't see stacked
4:55
boxes, saw just four stacked
4:57
boxes in his entire final
4:59
season with Tennessee, which speaks
5:01
to literally just how wide
5:03
open the entire football field
5:05
is the way that they scheme, which
5:09
can make for fun football to
5:11
watch, but when it
5:13
comes to evaluating how that's going
5:15
to translate to the NFL field,
5:17
like you're not asked to do as many things.
5:19
You're not asked to make as many decisions as
5:22
a split second on the football field, because you
5:25
might just be running wild and Jalen
5:27
Wright, he's an incredible athlete. So like once
5:30
he has space, which he had a lot
5:32
of a Tennessee, he can run
5:34
free. Still didn't translate
5:36
to touchdown production here in this past
5:38
season. I have a
5:40
lot of concerns, but you look
5:42
at the guy and the athlete and
5:45
you can see that like he's
5:47
got, he's got the
5:49
athletic traits to be a
5:51
outstanding running back. It's just, I
5:54
don't think he's a true NFL running back just yet.
5:57
So I want to give the positives first. before
6:00
we crushed the kid because there aren't
6:02
many running back that are over 210
6:04
pounds that run in the
6:06
four threes and have SEC production. That
6:09
part of it's really, really good. And
6:12
it's not just that he ran fast
6:14
at the combine. He plays really fast.
6:16
So give him credit. He is somebody
6:18
that can play fast
6:21
when he has a runway. That's
6:24
my issue is most of
6:26
his production came when there was just
6:28
massive holes. I was watching his tape
6:30
this morning and there was
6:32
a play. It was first down. There's
6:34
three defensive linemen on the field and there's
6:36
one linebacker in the picture on the all
6:39
22 and they run the
6:41
ball. Not surprisingly, when you
6:43
have five guys blocking four, there's
6:45
a huge, huge run lane
6:47
for him to run through. He
6:50
just didn't have to make a
6:52
lot of NFL runs or NFL
6:54
decisions. And I'm not saying
6:56
that he can't or he won't be able
6:58
to. We just never
7:00
saw it. And I have a lot of
7:03
questions about how long is
7:05
it going to take him to become an
7:07
NFL runner? What is his vision like? Because
7:10
even when there were times where he
7:12
had heavier boxes, I
7:15
didn't always like what I saw on tape. So I
7:18
project him as a player
7:21
who's going to be a part of a committee early
7:23
on who brings some juice to
7:25
your offense. You give the ball to
7:27
on jet sweeps, the screen passes and
7:29
wide zone runs, but it
7:31
might be a wild cape before he is in
7:33
every downback. If he ever gets there. Very
7:37
fair. And I mean, let's hit
7:39
on the positives just a little bit more.
7:42
Breakaway run rate, 84th percentile over
7:44
the passes. And he had a
7:46
breakaway run on one out
7:48
of every 10 rushing attempts that ranked 37th
7:50
among 226
7:53
qualifying running backs over the past two seasons. That
7:57
is just kind of the testament. He
7:59
doesn't just test. Well like you said, he
8:01
plays just as fast as he packed.
8:03
like. This. Is not a one
8:05
trick pony where the guy shows up. He's
8:08
really good at running the forty yard-know he
8:10
saw that burst. In.
8:12
His entire playing. Sally thought all over
8:15
the tape he's got. He's.
8:17
Got enough and birth that like a
8:19
even in the Nfl if he finds
8:21
the right the whole. You.
8:23
Gonna be gone cause like it's It's
8:25
just really hard to find that kind
8:27
of player that. Has the
8:30
the type of bills that he
8:32
has with. Match with that
8:34
kind of burst and athleticism. Them. Again,
8:38
The. Renowned and questions just come down
8:40
to how well does his game
8:42
translate to the NFL level because
8:44
you can have burst for days.
8:47
If you don't have the decision
8:49
making component which. I'm not
8:51
even saying it eight. he's a poor decision
8:53
maker. I'm saying. I don't think we can
8:55
judge his decision making based on what we've
8:58
seen in Tennessee Select. That is
9:00
a glaring question. Mark: What does he do
9:02
against. Ah, it'll a are
9:04
in a situation where he doesn't have
9:06
the advantage in terms of. The.
9:09
Off and to line defenses wine
9:11
mash up like what is he
9:13
gonna do what he faced staff
9:15
boxes because again for. Total.
9:17
Stack Box is based on
9:19
a hundred and thirty eight
9:21
runs last year. And
9:23
in. That's absurd. That
9:25
absolutely absurd like it. You know it.
9:27
He ranks fifth among Power Five running
9:30
backs. a thirty five explosive plays on
9:32
the season which again like you see
9:34
the burst and athleticism them but. The
9:38
circumstances couldn't have been more. Ideal
9:40
to. Lend itself to that
9:42
side of production and that's not to take
9:45
anything away from him. But I think both
9:47
of us. Are. Just a
9:49
little bit wary about how his game
9:51
will translate. The Nfl. Now.
9:53
i had a lot of the same concerns
9:56
about of on a to last year or
9:58
a channel i was messed up I don't
10:00
know how to pronounce his name. But somebody who was,
10:02
you know, came from a kind
10:04
of gimmicky offense, didn't move piles, you
10:06
know, mostly an outside runner, but he
10:08
landed in a perfect situation and all
10:10
of a sudden he's a top 10
10:12
dynasty running back. So we're not completely
10:14
dismissing the idea that he
10:17
could have a similar path. And
10:19
actually, I think he's far more durable than what
10:22
he ever was, right? And he's 210 pounds compared
10:24
to 180 pounds. But
10:27
I have similar concerns about his game. I
10:29
think landing spots can be very important for
10:31
not only how quickly he can get on
10:33
the field, but how effective he'll
10:35
be in the NFL. Okay,
10:38
I want to dive into some of
10:40
the advanced analytics for Jalen, right? Because
10:42
some of them are very, very good.
10:44
There's a couple that are also a
10:46
little discouraging. We will get to that
10:48
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for a quick break to talk about McDonald's.
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McMuffin. Welcome
12:51
back to the Lockdown Dynasty Football Podcast.
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We wanna let you know that the
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All right, Kate, let's dive into the analytics with Jill
13:22
and Wright. What do we got? You've
13:25
got kind of a mixed bag,
13:27
which again, like generally speaking, you're
13:29
gonna love the film, but from
13:31
a perspective of the advanced stats,
13:33
we looked at the advanced metrics
13:35
from PFF over the last two
13:37
seasons, 89th percentile in
13:40
terms of PFF, Russian grade, misforce
13:42
tackles per attempt, 87th percentile,
13:44
yards after contact per attempt, 91st. You're
13:47
gonna love all of those metrics. Where he
13:50
struggled a bit more, as a
13:52
receiver, 17th
13:55
percentile in both PFF receiving
13:57
grade and PFF. yards
14:00
per route run Again,
14:02
I mentioned the the breakaway
14:04
run potential eighty-fourth percentile there
14:08
But let's talk about the fumbles
14:10
five fumbles over the last two seasons on
14:12
306 touches That
14:15
is one point six percent Fumble rate
14:17
that ranked two hundred and ninth out
14:19
of two hundred and twenty nine running
14:21
backs in that span. So Kind
14:25
of a mixed bag like I think you
14:27
see when he has the ability to be
14:29
sort of a pure runner he
14:32
excels unproven as
14:35
a receiving prospect and
14:38
needs to work on the
14:40
ball control situation, which I do think is
14:42
kind of a red flag considering how Generally
14:46
open this offense was like he's gonna be
14:48
facing a lot more contact and a lot
14:51
more Physicality
14:54
Probably at the next level again, like
14:56
I think scheme is going to be
14:58
very important for him I
15:01
you know kind of bummed that they had
15:03
made that investment in Devin H And last
15:05
year because I think that dolphins could be
15:08
a really interesting fit for you know
15:10
Maybe a team that doesn't have
15:12
necessarily that size component
15:14
They have the speed component, but they could really
15:17
use a guy that has a little bit more
15:19
size to him And Jalen
15:21
Wright could fit that bill But
15:24
like he's going to need to be
15:26
schemed probably to a wide open offense if he's going
15:28
to have immediate fantasy
15:30
relevance and I
15:32
think the kind of mixed bag in terms
15:35
of his advanced metrics is a Testament
15:38
to some of these concerns that we have If
15:41
you if you don't mind Can you throw back up
15:43
that graphic of the advanced stats with Jalen Wright if
15:46
you're watching with us on YouTube a
15:48
lot? To like in terms of the Russian grave miss
15:50
tackles four shards after contact. I will
15:52
say some of those are a little bit Deceiving
15:55
because it's one of these if he breaks
15:57
one tackle and takes it 70 yards like
16:00
you're getting a lot of yards after contact.
16:02
The one that makes me the most nervous,
16:04
Kate, is the fumble rate.
16:06
He has five fumbles over
16:08
the last two years. And you're
16:11
not talking about somebody who had a ton of touches
16:13
during that span. It's less than 300 total carries over
16:17
the last two years. That's the
16:19
fastest way to find yourself on the bench in
16:21
the NFL, as if you can't hold
16:24
onto the ball. And then on top of that, I
16:28
think he's pretty raw as a pass blocker. So
16:30
if he's not going to block and he's not
16:32
going to hold onto the football, I
16:34
just worry that he's going to be somebody who week
16:37
to week, we just don't know what his role is.
16:41
At the same time, if he
16:43
gets top 100 draft capital, like so many
16:45
are expecting, it's just hard
16:47
to find these types of running backs that have
16:49
this kind of speed at his
16:51
size. So he is really a
16:53
mixed bag for me, and
16:56
somebody that I'm having a hard time
16:58
figuring out. Which is why
17:00
I think the draft capital component and
17:02
the landing spot are going to be so
17:04
key for a Jalen Wright.
17:06
I almost think that based
17:08
on where he's at as a prospect, at least
17:11
based on my evaluation, he's a
17:13
guy that I would like to see go to a
17:15
system with maybe somebody to
17:18
play behind. Imagine
17:20
him going to the Houston
17:22
Texans. I think
17:25
that would be such an awesome thing. He
17:27
can play behind Joe Mixon, use Joe Mixon
17:29
as that primary back in year one. Take
17:32
some time, learn the
17:35
NFL offense, learn the
17:37
NFL hits, learn everything there
17:39
is to learn about the
17:42
vision component, and in seeing the field,
17:44
the way that an NFL running back
17:47
sees the field, what kind of
17:49
defenses you're going to see at the next level. And
17:51
then have him take
17:53
over, because I do think that speed
17:56
is that component that the
17:58
Houston Texans in their world. run game
18:00
are grossly missing. I thought,
18:02
you know, Tony Pollard would have been
18:05
a great fit there because they needed an explosion
18:07
element. And I think Jalen Wright,
18:10
like, let's say he goes to
18:12
the Houston Texans, that would be
18:14
a big win for me. But if he goes
18:16
to a situation where day
18:19
one out of the gate, let's say
18:21
New York Giants, like I don't think
18:23
they're going to give Devin Singletary 260
18:25
plus touches. No, no. He'd
18:28
be asked to shoulder I think a lot more
18:30
and I don't necessarily know that he'd be ready
18:32
to succeed day one. That's why where
18:34
he lands is going to be so important. But
18:37
I also could see we've
18:39
done Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson, those
18:41
guys at least project as like every
18:43
down one a running backs that
18:45
maybe you pair with somebody else to be a change
18:48
of pace. Jalen Wright is the
18:50
change of pace running back. And that makes me
18:52
nervous about his landing spot because right
18:55
now, most NFL draft experts have
18:57
Jalen Wright mocked, you know, going
18:59
somewhere in the third round. Okay,
19:02
you know, once we get to the third round,
19:04
teams aren't so much concerned about neither just taking some
19:06
of the best players available. So like,
19:08
it won't shock me. If
19:10
a team like Green Bay at the bottom
19:12
of round three, they've got a pick 91.
19:15
It's like, Hey, we, we signed Josh Jacobs. We
19:18
have AJ Dillon on a one year deal. Jalen
19:21
Wright gives us something different that neither of those guys
19:23
have, which is home run speed. Let's have them on
19:25
our offense and give them seven or eight touches a
19:27
game. And we'll see how it
19:30
looks two years from now. That's my
19:32
concern with Jalen Wright. He's going to get into
19:34
a situation where he's viewed as a
19:36
change of pace guy and not as a one eight
19:38
or two or one B. Yeah.
19:41
And I, I think that's kind of fair. Like
19:43
that's a very fair evaluation, I think for what
19:45
we're getting out of the gate.
19:47
And I think honestly, based on our
19:50
evaluation, these players, fantasy managers might be
19:52
surprised to hear just how highly he's
19:54
being valued in dynasty compared
19:57
to two of the other running
19:59
backs in this class broke. and Benson who we
20:01
both covered and we are both very bullish on.
20:04
Jalen Wright's value I don't
20:06
think is all that dissimilar from either of
20:08
those running backs and Wright is a much
20:11
bigger project at this point in his career
20:13
so I'm excited to
20:15
get into his dynasty evaluation and where
20:17
we have him ranked because I gotta
20:21
be honest I was shocked when I
20:23
saw the ADP. Let's
20:26
uh let's get to his dynasty value and some
20:28
player comps next. This
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for a quick break to talk about McDonald's.
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Mornings are for mixing and matching at McDonald's.
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For just $3, mix and match two of
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your favorite breakfast items, including a sausage
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McMuffin. Welcome
21:59
back to the live on Dynasty Football
22:01
Podcast, we are discussing Tennessee running back
22:04
Jaylen Wright who Jay and
22:06
I both have some mixed feelings
22:08
on to say the least. Uh
22:11
where is he being drafted right
22:13
now among rookie running backs and
22:15
overall? Right now,
22:17
Jaylen Wright is coming in at
22:19
RB three and uh uh dynasty
22:22
rookie dynasty ADP. What
22:24
I think is probably more interesting cuz I
22:26
don't think that's overly egregious. He is not
22:28
my RV three spoiler alert
22:30
but I can
22:32
understand why you look at the traits
22:34
and athleticism and the the
22:37
potential upside cuz let me say like
22:39
I do think that he could be
22:41
a high upside player in the right
22:43
situation with development
22:47
but um I think
22:49
his overall value uh among veterans
22:52
and uh in startup
22:54
and and all that alike super
22:57
high he's being drafted on average
22:59
as RB twenty-eight RB
23:01
twenty-eight and that is just
23:04
a few spots between Trey Benson who like
23:06
you said earlier, we kinda project as a
23:09
very capable work horse that can absorb
23:12
a three down role and in function that
23:14
kinda day one like as soon as he
23:16
gets the the the ground
23:18
running, right? Like he's being
23:20
drafted just behind Tony Pollard,
23:22
David Montgomery who again,
23:25
I think you know maybe you're kind
23:27
of looking at Jalen Wright and
23:29
you're saying well, I want a guy that could
23:31
project as an RB one but I think
23:34
you're probably gonna pass up on a lot
23:36
of guys with immediate
23:40
contributor potential. Um
23:42
if you're gonna be taking Jalen Wright
23:45
as high, he's he's being drafted ahead of
23:47
uh Zach Charbonnet who
23:49
I think is a much better
23:51
overall running back albeit in a
23:53
more competitive backfield alongside Kenneth Walker.
23:55
He's being drafted behind Aaron Jones
23:57
who like forget about it. He's
24:00
He's an old guy, but like I
24:02
do not think he has shown anywhere for the
24:04
worse and one of the most smooth
24:07
receivers in this class, RB
24:09
32, come on, Brian Robinson, who I'm
24:11
not even a big fan of, but
24:14
I know you like a lot Marcus,
24:17
drafted several spots behind Jaylen
24:19
Warren. I think this evaluation tells me
24:21
that people are very enamored with
24:24
the build and the athleticism
24:26
and aren't necessarily evaluating the
24:30
prospect. So
24:33
I can, no,
24:35
no, I compare him to like,
24:38
you could say I'm being a means though.
24:40
I'm being a means though. You're not being mean.
24:44
I think he's like a better version of justice Hill. Um,
24:47
and a little similar to Keith Mitchell, who we
24:49
saw come out of the draft last year, funny
24:51
enough, both Baltimore Ravens running backs, useful
24:54
players, but
24:56
not some people or players that project to
24:58
be. Yeah. Now I think if you want
25:01
to have like a high end comp here,
25:03
I can see like him being Raheem Mostar in
25:05
the NFL, somebody who over 200 pounds, it's extremely
25:09
fast running back. But
25:11
as we've seen with most art, like it takes,
25:13
it's taken him a long time to find the
25:15
right team and find the right role. And even
25:17
the dolphins with most are very cautious about giving
25:19
him too much work. Um, I
25:22
think he's a good player who
25:24
I have major questions about his
25:26
dynasty value. I'm probably more
25:29
willing to let somebody else gamble on the
25:31
speed and the upside and I'll take, I'll,
25:33
I'll wait in my draft and I'll take
25:35
a braille and Alan. I'll take a Blake
25:37
quorum. I'll take my guy, Audrey estimate
25:39
much, much later. And I think you'll your
25:41
guy, okay. We are, we're going to have
25:43
to fight over Audrey. Are
25:46
you a fan? He's my RB3
25:48
in this class, Marcus. I don't mean to, I
25:52
don't mean to be, uh, giving any
25:54
spoilers here for some future episodes, but
25:56
there is no running back that I think
25:58
I'm probably more Sean versus consensus
26:01
then Audrey guesstimate forget the four seven
26:03
one forty give me Audrey guesstimate over
26:05
jail and right every single day Of
26:07
the week twenty four seven and I'm
26:10
all in jail and right again
26:12
I think what people are going
26:14
to get from him is very dependent on Situation
26:17
I think from a long-term dynasty
26:19
perspective his best prospect is landing
26:21
in a situation where he can
26:25
Play behind a starting running
26:27
back. I mentioned the Houston Texans. Are
26:29
there any other fits that you think
26:31
would be? Beneficial not
26:33
just like for year one value, but I
26:35
think what we need
26:37
to consider with Jalen Wright is the
26:39
long-term Projection and
26:41
development of him at the next level. I
26:44
think like Cleveland would be an outstanding landing spot They
26:46
pick it 85 in the third round I
26:49
think that one makes a lot of sense come in
26:51
play with your room for play with whatever version you
26:53
get of Nick Chubb I think there's
26:55
a lot of teams at the back end of round
26:57
three Tampa Bay I think you and
26:59
I aren't the biggest Rashad white fans, but I think
27:01
he makes sense in that offense Kansas
27:03
City right if they're a little bit nervous
27:06
about Isaiah Pacheco and they want to keep
27:08
that speed element I'll also mention
27:10
the 49ers who always want speed at the running
27:12
back position Elijah Mitchell
27:14
going into the final year of his contract. He's
27:17
been unable to stay healthy Christian
27:19
McCaffrey is getting up there in age I
27:21
do think there's a lot of teams at the
27:23
back end of round three that would be really
27:25
really intriguing for his long-term dynasty outlook I Just
27:29
I'm a little hesitant to think though that he's
27:31
gonna have Early
27:33
returns where he gets drafted So
27:35
for me I would rather just see him
27:37
go to a team like that where I
27:39
trust that to eventually get him involved Rather
27:42
than going to a team like the Giants
27:44
where maybe there's more opportunities for touches right
27:47
away All
27:49
very fair. All right, that
27:51
is it for today's show We want to thank
27:53
you for making locked on dynasty football your first
27:55
listen every single day on Monday
27:58
show We're gonna break down Wisconsin
28:00
running back Braelynn Allen
28:02
on Tuesday show we will do Blake
28:04
Corum for Michigan We're
28:07
gonna try to figure out a time to do Audrey estimate
28:09
because you and I both love Auster cast it may maybe
28:11
we'll combine a couple of these shows together Because
28:14
we're for big Audrey Estebate fans wanted
28:16
to let everybody know on
28:19
next Wednesday show with Matt Williamson We
28:21
are gonna do a two round Super
28:24
flex mock draft just the rookies
28:26
just a rookie draft ahead of the NFL
28:29
draft And then we'll do one pretty quickly
28:31
after the draft just to see how much
28:33
things change It's always a
28:35
really fun exercise So make sure you're downloading
28:37
the podcast wherever you get your podcast. We
28:39
are free and available on all platforms Go
28:42
follow Kate on Twitter at Kate module.
28:45
I'm at Marcus underscore Mosher. Have a
28:47
great weekend We'll see you back
28:49
here on Monday to get you ready for draft week You
28:57
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