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It's

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Bill's. It's gonna be a fun episode. We talk

0:52

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0:54

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0:56

could they pull off this upset? Would it

0:58

be crazy? Would it be the all time upset

1:00

started by Kenny Pinkett to start his legend?

1:03

We'll talk about all things considered in

1:05

this podcast right here. Again, Chris Carter,

1:07

I've locked on Steelers. Let's get

1:09

into it.

1:11

You are locked on Steelers, your

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What's up everybody, Joe Marino

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here with locked on bills joined

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by Chris Carter of locked on

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Steelers, and it is that time of

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folks welcome and thank you for making

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a reminder to you, we are free and available

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on all platforms. including

2:40

YouTube. Chris, welcome.

2:43

How

2:43

are you, sir? I'm doing well. I just wanted to

2:45

do another crossover Thursday with you, Joe.

2:47

We we talked last year. We've talked

2:50

since then about draft stuff and going

2:52

over who might be good and who might not

2:54

be good. but it's always great to talk some

2:56

football with you, man. You you got a lot of knowledge

2:58

that I always like to tap into. Chris,

3:00

appreciate that. You always bring the energy,

3:02

which brings the best out of me, and so I'm

3:04

side to talk Bill Steelers with

3:06

you and and let's do get into

3:08

it. Let's start with the biggest

3:10

story for each team entering

3:12

this game and Chris is you examine

3:14

that through the lens of the Pittsburgh

3:17

Steelers. What is that prevailing thought on

3:19

your mind? Oh,

3:19

there's only one story in pit

3:21

sberg right now if you're following along. And it's

3:24

that Kenny Pickett is ready to start for

3:26

the Pittsburgh Steelers. A lot of Steelers fans

3:28

have been calling it since the preseason. It

3:30

got even louder after

3:32

Mitsubishi didn't have exactly a good

3:34

start to his time in Pittsburgh. you

3:37

know, I think the the bangles win, they were okay

3:39

with it. But after, like, how the way he played against

3:41

the patriot, there was allowed I mean, you could

3:43

hear in the stadium can. He can

3:45

he it just it goes on and on.

3:48

And there's a natural buildover

3:50

from that because, of course, he quarterback the pit Panthers.

3:52

He got them their first ever championship

3:54

last season. I covered him in middle of

3:56

that. Pitt fans loved him then. Like,

3:58

they they they chatted Kenny Hiesman, you know,

4:00

was was his channel. He finished third and the Hiesman

4:02

voting last year. And

4:04

there's a lot of belief in in him

4:06

going into this season, and everyone's excited

4:08

about the new first round traffic. And Mike Tom and

4:10

officially made him the first overall the first

4:13

you know, got quarterback in a death chart

4:15

this week after taking over. Now

4:17

if you're looking at a stat line, I will say

4:19

this. You'll you'll he got three through three in receptions

4:21

last week. One of those was a fifty fifty

4:23

ball that Chase Klapel just lost and he got tipped

4:25

away and intercepted. Another one of those he

4:27

shouldn't have thrown to Pat Frymuth. He was trying to

4:29

throw it away and he just do it too low and when

4:31

we went to get it, tipped off at his hands, it went to

4:34

another defender's hands. And then the third one was

4:36

just a hail Mary. But all in

4:38

all, I mean, the Steelers went from

4:40

converting one out of six third downs in the

4:42

first half last week to five out of six on

4:44

third downs in the second half with Kenny

4:46

Pickett. And then the one third

4:48

down they didn't convert they converted

4:50

on fourth down because he did a QB sneak.

4:52

And there was a confidence there. There's a

4:54

swagger there. And you could and you can even tell I

4:56

mean, literally, Beyonce Johnson, the Steelers number

4:58

one receiver on their chart. He was talking

5:00

about how it's a different swagger when he's in there. It's

5:02

a different set of efficiency. And that's

5:04

kind of the excitement around the city of Pittsburgh.

5:06

Right now, Joe, is that everyone wants to see What

5:08

is Kenny Pickett like to start off? Is he the

5:10

real deal? Can he turn around the quarterback

5:12

position so the Steelers fans

5:14

don't have to wait? another fifteen,

5:17

twenty years for their next franchise quarterback

5:19

like they did between Terry Bradshaw and Ben

5:21

Ralthusberger. Well,

5:22

I'm excited to see Kenny Pickett and I'll have some

5:25

thoughts about him in our second

5:27

segment. And

5:29

I would agree with you. I I went back and watched the

5:31

Jets game. It was certainly the second half

5:33

to to get familiar with what Kenny Pickett looked like.

5:35

And I, you know, obviously, the three interceptions

5:37

is part of it, and you you did a good job of explaining

5:40

the context behind them. It's hard to put a whole

5:42

lot on Kenny for that. But I

5:44

saw a poised and confident player. Right?

5:46

The guy that stepped in the moment wasn't too big

5:48

for him.

5:48

I thought his willingness to

5:51

kinda just read it and rip it was was

5:53

really fun, and that's what we saw at Pitt. And you and I have

5:55

been talking about Kenny, feels like, you know,

5:57

at least for the last year or

5:59

so with your work with Pitt and my work with the

6:01

draft network. And so it was kinda cool

6:03

to see, like, right away the stuff that we

6:05

enjoyed about Kenny last year

6:07

at Pitt show up in that really

6:09

kinda tough situation to be inserted

6:11

into in the NFL. And so III

6:13

find myself optimistic about him and

6:15

and his ability to step to

6:18

this

6:18

this role for the Steelers long

6:20

term, and I certainly loved him

6:21

given the business to CJ Mosley

6:24

on that touch down, Ron. I think CJ might

6:26

have took up for granted a little bit. Kenny

6:28

said, no. I'm 632 twenty. I got

6:30

some athleticism about me too. So

6:32

I'll give you the business here on the goal line and certainly

6:34

that's something that Bill's mouth you

6:36

can appreciate with the style of play that we get to

6:38

see from Josh Allen. Let

6:41

me ask you just one quick follow-up if I can

6:43

before I talk about the big storyline for the

6:45

bills in this game. There's

6:47

somewhat of a a vested interest here from the

6:49

bill side of things that Mitchell Trebisca. I know that he really

6:51

didn't do much for the bills last year, but

6:53

one year is the backup kinda becoming

6:56

good friends with Josh Allen. There's

6:58

some goodwill towards him. Right? Well, I

7:00

think everybody that that's a Bill's fan

7:03

wanted to see Mitch go and

7:05

have success with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

7:07

And I'm sure that's what they

7:09

wanted too. Right? But it didn't take long

7:11

for them to realize that, well, you

7:13

know,

7:13

Mitch is kind of Mitch and and we need

7:15

more of a spark here at quarterback. What can you

7:17

tell us about Mitch and his four starts with

7:19

the Steelers? I mean, the

7:20

biggest thing I think was that Mitch did a great

7:22

job avoiding the big turnovers that

7:25

could crush the Steelers. He made

7:27

some, but It wasn't like, the one big

7:29

interception I think he threw that was inexcusable

7:31

was the one against the Patriots. When he had George

7:33

Pickens open in the flat, he tried to throw it down

7:35

field, and he didn't throw much down field.

7:37

But one of the times he did, it was thrown into double

7:39

coverage and immediately intercepted by the Patriots.

7:42

But I mean, all in all, Mitch wasn't, like, Like,

7:44

this it's this is a very different situation

7:46

than your average quarterback situation, whereas,

7:49

you know, some people like like, people in

7:51

Pittsburgh, they're just a tune to if you're if I

7:53

don't like you. They don't like you. And they're just not gonna like,

7:55

you know, I don't want you to do. That's come in the case

7:57

of Mason Rudolph, who sits at the third drink

7:59

position. People were just dead set on him not being

8:01

the guy. Mitch, however, came

8:03

in and people liked him for the preseason, but as soon

8:05

as he was bad in in the regular season, people

8:07

were done with it. Like, no. Put Kenny in. We're tired of

8:09

this. Like, you know, like, we we we wanna see the

8:11

future. We were hoping he could be the bridge. He's not

8:13

even the bridge. He's gotta be the guy that

8:15

kinda comes in if Kenny had pick it as he's

8:17

ever struggling and you just need a pinch.

8:20

you know, again, Mitch, he wasn't

8:23

terrible, but the problem with Mitch was that he

8:25

just doesn't see the field still, and you were

8:27

hoping that you could work that out of his system

8:29

But, like, there was a play cut up done

8:31

by one guy at

8:33

Tyler Wise. He he he follows the

8:35

Steelers a lot. and he

8:37

showed a play where almost a very, you know,

8:39

very similar concepts on both

8:41

offense and defense in the first and

8:43

second half Mitch Risky one, runs

8:45

it. Pat Frym with George Pickens and Jaylen

8:47

Warner. All three open over the middle. He

8:49

doesn't even look at them. He looks to his left, takes

8:51

too long to get off of it, and gets sacked. Kenny

8:53

Pickett gets the same exact play. And

8:55

within two seconds, he has the ball out of his

8:57

hands and it's down the field to the middle

8:59

to Pat fireman who gets it down to the two yard

9:01

line to set up one of their scores. And that was, wow,

9:03

Kenny Pickett was getting hit by Quinn

9:05

Williams out of a gap. and

9:07

it's just you see the command, the anticipation,

9:09

the understanding of where to go with the football.

9:12

That's what Kenny Pickett has over Mitsubishi.

9:14

were hoping Mitsubishi would be able to develop that

9:16

with the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. It didn't,

9:18

and that's why he's on the bench now.

9:20

Chris, the biggest storyline for the Buffalo

9:23

Bills entering this game in my view

9:25

is what can the

9:27

Bill's offense show? And

9:29

I know that might sound a little

9:31

bit strange considering the Bill's

9:33

statistically have been phenomenal on

9:35

offense this year. And and we look at

9:37

the team so favorably, but

9:39

I

9:40

hi come

9:41

away wanting to see

9:43

more if that makes sense. And and I think

9:45

there's two elements to

9:47

this offense that the bills

9:49

were counting on pre season that

9:51

haven't showed up yet. And there's

9:53

reasons for that, but they need to

9:55

start showing up. And one of them is the

9:57

wide receiver two. Gabriel Davis, a lot of

9:59

excitement for him to be the

10:01

number two opposite of Steph Diggs. Obviously, the big

10:03

game against Kansas City and the playoffs.

10:06

you're excited for this opportunity

10:08

for Gabe. And Gabe hasn't done anything

10:10

wrong. He's just playing through an ankle injury, and

10:12

you saw he was healthy against the Rams. eighty eight

10:14

yards in a touchdown. He made an impact,

10:16

two big vertical catches down the

10:18

field. Well, since then he's been

10:20

battling this ankle and playing through

10:22

it, and he

10:23

just isn't himself. And and the

10:25

problem with that is not only is he not

10:27

himself and not able to contribute like he

10:29

wants to, but Well, the bills don't really

10:31

have that number two receiver. And so

10:33

Josh Allen's been getting so many

10:35

different guys involved. And

10:37

so my question is, well, is this

10:39

the week Gabe is healthy and plays right?

10:41

I mean, he's he's a full participant in practice.

10:43

You just watch and run routes. You know he's

10:46

not right. So what does that look like

10:48

this week? And then the

10:50

other piece of that is with some

10:52

other issues with the wide receiver

10:54

court Jake Kumo ankle injury. Isaiah

10:56

McKinsey concussion protocol, James

10:58

and Crowder, ankle injury. Who

11:00

steps up? Right? Is it is it Khalil secure,

11:02

fifth round rookie at a Boise state?

11:04

who do they get going here? Is this more of

11:06

a Dawson Knox game? So I'm interested

11:08

to see where this team goes

11:11

offensively outside of Stephane Diggs,

11:13

particularly in the passing game. The other

11:15

element that I think they were counting on

11:17

a lot from going

11:18

into the year that hasn't manifested

11:20

itself yet is James Cook. Bill

11:22

second round pick,

11:23

and they wanted to add this past

11:26

catching back. Right? They tried to sign JD

11:28

McKissick and Free Agency. That

11:30

fell through. then they turn around in the second

11:32

round and they draft James Cook.

11:34

There's a clear emphasis on wanting

11:36

this past catching specialist out of the back

11:38

field, then it makes sense with the way defenses

11:40

play the bills. It's a lot of

11:42

soft shell coverage and really

11:45

and own us back on the quarterback Josh Allen

11:47

to be willing to take check downs and

11:49

keep

11:49

the offense on schedule. Well, James

11:52

Cook has come in and fumbled, drop

11:54

passes, it just looks too big for him, right, at

11:56

this point. And and maybe that'll change. We're

11:58

certainly not writing the guy off after four

12:00

games, but you start to ask yourself questions.

12:02

How can this player reasonably help the

12:05

football team? He played two snaps last week, and

12:07

he doesn't play special teams? And

12:08

so is

12:09

this a week where they think

12:11

about pulling

12:12

up Duke Johnson from the practice squad and

12:14

seeing what you have there, like, how do they fill

12:16

this void? How do they get

12:18

more production out of running backs that aren't

12:20

named Devon Singletary? So my

12:22

biggest story line for me is

12:23

examining those two lenses.

12:26

Who steps up in the passing game? Is it

12:28

Gabriel Davis? Is he healthy and good go this

12:30

week? And then what other running backs not named Devon

12:32

Singletary can help this offense? Because I think

12:34

if the bills are gonna go where they wanna go

12:36

and where a lot of people think they're gonna go

12:38

this year, those elements have

12:40

to come together. I'll

12:41

tell you, Joe, if a Pittsburgh

12:43

Steelers Fair saw you

12:46

complaining about the bills office while

12:48

ranked as the fifth highest scoring offense in the league.

12:50

They would shake your fist at you and say,

12:52

ah, you're a pure you you are spoiled. and

12:54

which the bills are. They have so much talent.

12:56

You're supposed to be number one. Number

12:58

two in that conversation. And I and I

13:00

totally agree. you know, Gabe Davis. I drive to him a

13:02

lot of my Fantasy leagues, and I've been like,

13:04

come on,

13:05

Dave. What's you doing to me, man?

13:07

But I see it. And I'm like, man,

13:09

this isn't

13:10

like like, the the bills should not have

13:12

lost the one game, but they've lost the dolphins. They

13:14

also granted that was extreme circumstances, a

13:16

hundred and twenty degree whether your

13:18

offense, you know, Stéphane diggas, having full

13:21

body cramps. That's a whole different

13:23

situation. But then, honestly,

13:25

they shouldn't have lost well, they they

13:27

didn't lose Right? But they should I felt like they

13:29

should have been able to handle the Ravens

13:31

sooner than they did. And I think some

13:33

of it certainly injuries, concerns

13:35

there. but that fluidity on

13:37

offense. But that's what's really scary about this Bill's

13:39

team. They're they had to fit most

13:41

points in the NFL, and they're not even playing

13:43

their best. And that's why I think everyone's

13:45

like, boy, these guys are going to the Super

13:47

Bowl, reasonably so because they are such

13:49

a talented bunch, and I agree with you. That

13:51

fluidity on offense, if they get that

13:53

They're gonna be on another level. Well, listen.

13:55

We we we had a long run of the Pittsburgh

13:57

Steelers having a top three roster in the

13:59

NFL, and and you kinda looking at the

14:01

microscope at the issues. You know what I mean?

14:03

So dealers fans know what it's like to be

14:05

in that spot and and kinda look at the

14:07

minutia and really ask yourself hard

14:09

questions about where this team can

14:11

go, you know, to to be everything

14:13

that they wanna be. So III hear you,

14:15

but I also I don't I don't

14:17

remember. I don't forget not too long

14:19

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14:21

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14:21

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14:24

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So, Chris, let's now evolve our

16:24

conversation to the key match

16:26

ups that are gonna decide

16:28

this game for both teams.

16:30

And

16:30

I I

16:32

guess I'll start here.

16:34

because for me, I

16:37

look at this bill's past defense

16:39

against the Steelers passing

16:41

offense. Right? Like, we you talked about it. Right?

16:43

Kenny Pickett is making his

16:45

debut as an NFL

16:47

starter this week. and

16:49

we can debate the timing. Right? Like,

16:51

I think this is a big ask for Kenny

16:54

on the road in Buffalo. It's

16:56

only the Bill second home game of the year. They

16:58

hadn't played at home since week two.

17:00

Right? This is

17:01

gonna be a hostile environment. And

17:03

you're going up against a really, really

17:06

really good past defense. And,

17:08

hey, this is the NFL.

17:10

Right? Like, there's no you don't get the play

17:12

that Detroit Lions defense every week. There's

17:15

no, like, perfect time to put in the

17:17

quarterback. But

17:17

this is a tough ask. When you look

17:19

at the bills success

17:22

in in history against rookie quarterbacks under Sean

17:25

McDermott. The bills have faced

17:27

ten rookie quarterbacks. In those

17:29

ten starts, Those

17:31

guys have combined for a fifty seven

17:33

percent completion percentage, a hundred and

17:35

sixty five passing yards per

17:37

game, five touchdowns, fifteen

17:40

interceptions. Right? And we're talking about

17:42

rookie quarterbacks. Chris, most

17:44

quarterbacks struggle against the bills. This

17:46

year, they're allowing a sixty four point seven

17:48

pass a rating against their coverage.

17:51

And and and this is an

17:53

insane number. two point seven

17:55

adjusted net yards per tenth. So when

17:57

teams go to pass the ball against the

17:59

bills, they're getting two point

18:01

seven yards. I mean, that's that's

18:03

bad run offense, Chris. Mhmm. We're

18:05

talking about pass offense. And here's

18:07

the thing. That's not like a just this

18:09

year thing. Last year for the entire

18:11

season, all seventeen games, pass the rating

18:13

of sixty five point three and three

18:15

point eight adjusted net yards

18:17

per attempt. this is a good Bill's past defense.

18:19

They know how to scheme it up. They know how to play.

18:21

They know they know how to leverage the field

18:23

and force you into tough throws. And

18:25

here's the other layer here. The bills also

18:27

have the lowest blitz rate in the NFL,

18:29

but the highest SAC rate in

18:31

the AFC at ten point two percent.

18:33

So they don't

18:34

half the blitz to get pressure. So they're gonna

18:37

pressure you with four, they're gonna space with

18:39

seven, and they're gonna get really difficult for

18:41

you to slot the football against

18:43

their coverage. This is

18:44

a tough ask for Kenny Pickett.

18:46

I expect the bills to do everything that they

18:48

can to make his head spin. The

18:50

coverage

18:50

is gonna be tight. The pass

18:51

rush is gonna be present. And there's

18:53

gonna be a lot on Kenny picket in this game

18:55

to start

18:57

his career off

18:58

to AAA in a good way. And

19:00

I'm not sure what the expectations

19:03

possibly be, but this is a tough, tough

19:05

opportunity for Kenny. I like

19:07

Kenny, but this is gonna

19:08

be a tough week for him. It

19:09

is gonna be a tough week for him. But

19:12

I also think there's a bit of what

19:14

this big Steelers' biggest key ties into,

19:16

a little bit what you're talking with there at the

19:19

past defense. but I think it's not just the past defense for

19:21

the the steelers and how they're facing the

19:23

bills. I I think it's about how

19:25

they win situational downs

19:27

money downs as Mike Tom always to call

19:29

them, but also all of that leading

19:32

into time of possession.

19:34

The Steelers have been one of the worst teams

19:36

in the NFL in time possession. If you look at their numbers

19:38

right now, they they have they are averaging

19:40

twenty five minutes and forty two

19:42

seconds processing the ball in a football

19:44

game. That is thirty first

19:46

in the NFL. The only team that's doing

19:48

worse than them is Carolina. This

19:50

last week was the first time they were even

19:52

relevant in they had they had the ball for

19:54

thirty minutes in one second, which means they

19:56

possess the the ball literally two seconds

19:58

longer than the New York Jets in that last

19:59

game. If you're going to beat

20:02

the bills, you're going to need to

20:04

hold on to the football and keep Josh Allen

20:06

off the field because here's the thing about the

20:08

Steelers defensive. If you look at the Steelers defensive right now,

20:10

they're very much depleted. TJ Watt, not playing.

20:12

He's not coming back anytime soon. They're still probably

20:14

gonna wait another. I I don't honestly don't think

20:16

he'll be back until the bi week

20:18

if that. but

20:20

you're looking at Mink if it's Patrick who didn't

20:22

practice on on Wednesday, and that's an alarming thing

20:24

for the Pittsburgh Steelers with a knee injury. His

20:26

partner, Charles Edmunds, the other guy back there at safety, Tramane

20:29

Edmunds' other brother. He's

20:31

he's in the concussion protocol. Cam

20:33

Sutton has a groin injury. He was limited. You

20:35

know, Kala Weathersman has a hamstring injury.

20:37

He's out. There's your top war guys in

20:39

the secondary, and they're

20:41

all hurt. And there might be three

20:43

of them at play if they're lucky, but this

20:45

is gonna be a rough one. And I think that

20:48

that's something that when you look at here, if

20:50

you're the Steelers, you might be able to concoct a game

20:52

plan. Like, if you go back to the Steelers versus

20:54

Chiefs in the playoffs, you look at that final

20:56

score and you think, well, the Steelers never had a chance. The Steelers held

20:58

Patrick Mahomes scoreless for about a quarter

21:00

and a half with scoring

21:03

ADA defensive touchdown themselves.

21:05

Had they gotten any offensive help without

21:07

outside of three an ounce? Maybe they would

21:09

have been able to not be this tired

21:12

out the way they were eventually in that game when you

21:14

face an offense like Patrick Mahomes. But I think it's

21:16

a big part of what they gotta do this year to the Buffalo

21:18

Bills if they're gonna have any hope in this

21:20

game. It's possessing the football,

21:22

controlling the football, winning on

21:24

third downs, as I said before as I said in the first

21:26

segment, can you pick it five or six on third

21:28

downs, moving the ball man, that's different from 111

21:30

of one of Mitsubishi of being one of

21:32

six on third downs. Also, letting

21:34

Nadji Harris get busy that last week was

21:36

also the first time that he averaged more

21:39

than four yards per carry in a game, and it really

21:41

hasn't been just about nazi. A lot of it's

21:43

been about the offense of line. A lot of it's been about

21:45

teams. As soon as the ball has snapped, those safety

21:47

and line backers are crashing because they know that not

21:49

afraid of the Steelers passing game. If

21:51

the Steelers can just establish a balance, can

21:53

you pick it? Doesn't even throw five touchdowns and

21:55

light things up. If they can establish a balance

21:57

that that says, hey, you have to

21:59

be aware of the deep shot, especially the deep shot

22:01

over the middle or even the intermediate shot over the

22:04

middle, and you can't play the run. that'll

22:06

allow Naji Harris more space to

22:08

work, more chances to gain yards, and more

22:10

chances to kinda get to that second level where he's

22:12

at his best. And they do that,

22:15

I think that's their best chance of this game because

22:17

then you're gonna possess the ball longer. You're

22:19

gonna maybe tire out the the the

22:21

bill's and give the Steelers defense

22:23

arrest so that if they're able to catch

22:25

Josh Allen off guard a couple times, they

22:27

won't be exposing everything that they have

22:29

in their repertoire in doing

22:31

so. You know,

22:31

I'm excited for Kenny

22:33

to work with these receivers that

22:35

Pittsburgh has because when we look at the makeup

22:37

of these guys, I mean, pick

22:39

ins contested catch guy. Right? Big time

22:42

hands, fire mouthed, same thing in the middle at night

22:44

end. Dante Johnson is not a big guy, but

22:46

he's got good hands in ball skills. I I know

22:48

he has drop issues, but he's a guy that does a

22:50

good job of putting himself in in spots to

22:52

win. Chase Maple is supposed

22:54

to be that type of player. But

22:56

Kenny thinks it's that type of quarterback that's gonna read it and rip

22:58

it. And he's got leverage. He's gonna give your guys a chance

23:00

to go make a play on the ball. And I think

23:02

to your point and and how this offense can

23:05

stay a lot more on schedule with him as opposed

23:07

to Travinsky. It's just a little bit more of

23:09

a of a

23:10

I don't know if the

23:11

word is it's just confidence. Right?

23:13

It's confidence to trust your arm and trust your

23:15

guys to go make a play on the ball and you

23:18

have to do that. Right? Like

23:20

this this offense, this Matt

23:22

Camden offense, needs that to happen

23:24

for everything else to kinda come together. And

23:26

I think I'm expecting

23:28

this Steelers offense to be

23:30

better. Does that happen this

23:32

Well, we'll

23:32

find out. We

23:34

will find out certainly this week and

23:36

we're gonna give you our full predictions and

23:38

final looks at how this game

23:40

might go out in just a minute. But first, we gotta talk

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25:19

Well, Chris,

25:24

it's prediction time.

25:27

It is time for us to give our score

25:29

predictions on this game. Do

25:31

you wanna go first? I'll I'll give you the opportunity

25:33

if you like it. Sure. I'll

25:36

go first. I'll say this is gonna

25:38

be a fun game.

25:40

I've been known to make some

25:42

tough predictions. I predicted steelers

25:44

over, bangles a week. Why aren't you doing that

25:46

this week? This is too much. But listen. I

25:48

I think it was an interesting stat that Adam Schefter

25:51

was tweeting out there saying that this is

25:53

the first time

25:54

since the NFL merger

25:57

that these Steelers have been fourteen point underdogs,

25:59

and they were the last team to

26:01

not be fourteen point underdogs

26:03

heading into a game. And

26:05

I I think that's totally fair of

26:07

a spread. And then you might think in fourteen points, that's

26:09

a lot in the NFL. And I think the Steelers will

26:11

cover in this game. But this there's just

26:13

so many things that factor against the Steelers in

26:16

this game. Josh Allen, them

26:18

playing well, even if Gabe Davis isn't

26:20

on, you still got Stephane Diggs. The

26:22

Steelers don't have a number one corner

26:24

this year that they could kinda takes the top dog

26:26

of the room. The guy who kinda was the

26:28

number one was a Kellogg Witherspoon. He's looked like

26:30

he's gonna be out for this game. make if it's

26:32

Patrick's hurt or Ellen's is hurt, even if all

26:34

the things went right for the Steelers like they did

26:36

when these two teams met last

26:38

year, that's a lot to ask for them to

26:40

do again and then still hold on for

26:42

the win

26:43

with with all the

26:44

problems that they I'm looking at

26:46

this. I think a big turning point in this

26:49

game for the bills is going to

26:51

come when the Steelers you

26:53

know, you look at that playoff game against the Chiefs last year

26:55

when they were just a definitely outmatched, but

26:57

fighting to stay in with everything that they had.

26:59

They had, like, like, a forced turnovers. They were

27:01

able to make some plays. I think the steelers

27:03

stay in this early. They they come out

27:06

energized, but they're gonna be in a position

27:08

where Kenny Pigott's gonna make some

27:10

plays. but not enough plays. And he'll make some mistakes. And then the the

27:12

bills will capitalize because they're a much more well

27:14

oiled machine. I see this coming

27:17

down I don't like to give

27:19

basic scores like twenty eight twenty one

27:21

because that's just that's just a subtle

27:23

lane. We don't do that here in the locked on

27:25

podcast network.

27:26

go I'll go thirty

27:29

one twenty

27:30

six. That's a good weird number. Because

27:32

I do think the Steelers find a way to put up some

27:34

points in this game and it's gonna give some encouragement

27:37

to people ultimately, it's not gonna be enough. And again, it'll

27:39

they'll cover the spread. They'll make this

27:41

closer than than Vegas thinks it

27:43

will be. But I do think that

27:45

the bills definitely come out on top and they could

27:47

definitely win by more than just five

27:49

points as I as I gave them there. But I'm

27:51

I'm just saying I think that the steelers and that might not

27:53

even be a thing where, like, bills

27:55

get the lead late or anything like that. It might be like

27:57

the Steelers down two positions get a score

27:59

at the end of the game. Go for an on-site kick. Don't get

28:01

it. And then the Bills win. But III

28:03

feel like this game might be closer because I do think

28:05

the Steelers will gear up for this game. It's just the

28:07

Bills just have them overmatched in a lot

28:09

of different ways.

28:10

I think it makes some good points there just

28:13

about being able

28:14

to embrace that underdog mentality.

28:16

I mean, Mike Tom one's gotta love that. Right? Go

28:18

to a locker room in say, hey, nobody nobody's giving you a

28:20

chance. I was giving you a chance. You beat this team

28:22

last year. Yeah. Beat them. You

28:24

know? Like

28:24

so that's

28:27

a rallying point. The bills in

28:29

Josh Allen's rookie year, I think they were like sixteen

28:31

and a half point underdogs on

28:33

the road in Minnesota.

28:35

and then they went and won that game like

28:38

thirty to ten or something crazy like

28:40

that. Right? So they covered the spread like

28:42

the other way around. So you can there's

28:44

definitely something to be said for what you're talking

28:46

about that. We're talking about, you know, one of the

28:48

greatest coaches

28:48

of our time in Mike Commlin. If there's anything that

28:50

he can do, it's rally. Right?

28:53

So I I

28:53

definitely acknowledge those

28:56

dynamics. Chris, I just

28:58

think the script for Pittsburgh to win this

29:00

game is really tough. You talked about

29:02

it. You're talking about and I have I'm looking at my

29:04

notes before we even had started this conversation. I

29:06

have written down clock control offense that

29:08

keeps the chains moving and

29:10

finishes in the red zone. Can't turn over the football. Slow

29:12

down Josh Allen with a short handed

29:15

defense. These are tough asks. Right?

29:17

I mean,

29:17

like, it's it's It's

29:19

not like the bills have been a bad run defense this year.

29:22

They held Derek Henry under two yards per

29:24

carry. I mean,

29:24

they bottled up the dolphins, they bottled up

29:27

Rams, Lamar Jackson made his runs, but their running

29:29

backs didn't produce. Like, the bills have had

29:31

a very good run defense so far this

29:33

year. They're in the top five in terms of

29:35

lowest yards per carry against their

29:37

defense. And so they're

29:39

very good on third down defense.

29:42

So I,

29:42

you know, I I think your

29:45

your you're it's just a tough ask. You know,

29:47

is it gonna be ground in pound with

29:49

Nodgy and and hope for some explosives in

29:51

the passing game? it's a tough ask

29:53

because you're gonna have to score. I mean, you predicted the

29:55

bills to score thirty one points. Like, what's the

29:58

path for Pittsburgh to be able to keep

30:00

that pace? It's I just go back to this

30:02

being a tough ask. And I

30:04

can't

30:04

I don't wanna overlook that the bills

30:06

have only played one game

30:09

at home. three of their first four is on the road. They're on the road

30:11

again next week. So four of their

30:13

first six is on the road.

30:15

And that's, you know, this is Bill's

30:17

wanting to defend their dirt, seize their opportunities at

30:19

home. Bill's mafia is gonna be excited for

30:21

this football game. They are. I

30:24

I respect

30:26

the Pittsburgh Steelers. I respect

30:28

Mike Tomlin. I just feel like this is a tough

30:30

tough situation. I have this I have

30:32

this score being thirty one thirteen bills.

30:34

that's

30:35

totally reasonable. I mean, the Steelers offense

30:37

has not given anyone any reason to be

30:39

confident. And even if can you pick up the starter, you

30:41

know, you're going up against again the,

30:44

what, the number two defense in the

30:46

country right now. I so this is a

30:48

problem I have, Joe. I cover college football and I

30:50

say number two defense in

30:52

the country. Like, it's like it. You're talking about programs and stuff.

30:54

Meanwhile, we're talking about the NFL. Like, you know, there's

30:56

only thirty two teams. There's not a hundred and twenty five, like, they're on

30:58

college football, but still a

31:00

point being The bills have the number two defense,

31:02

the number five offense. Man, that's just

31:04

a lot of things to stack up against you.

31:06

So I I'm totally with you. Three one

31:08

thirteen is not unreasonable. Like, There's

31:10

times I think, like, man, our bill being

31:12

over the top budget team, but this is not that case.

31:14

The bills are that much better than the Steelers right

31:16

now. And, you know, if the Steelers were healthy

31:18

this week. And I know the Bills aren't healthy. I'm not this

31:20

isn't a excuse. But if the Steelers were healthy

31:22

and they had TJ Wattback and

31:24

Kenny pick it was was more than his first

31:27

I might think like, hey, there might be more of a chance here.

31:29

I just think that there's way too many things

31:31

stacked up against them. Though, I will say

31:34

though, Kenny pick it. Came out and said, you know,

31:36

people were asking him, talking about how do you feel about your

31:38

first game being and gets a team that's like a super old

31:40

favorite was like bills. and being a fourteen

31:42

point underdog. And he said, you guys

31:44

and everyone else thinks we're underdogs.

31:46

We don't. And I was just like,

31:48

Okay. Okay. But that's the Kenny Pickett that the Steelers drafted. They

31:50

wanted a guy with confidence with Swagger. Mister

31:53

Briskie would say, like, the the, you know, the

31:55

the smart and just be like, hey, you know, we're

31:57

gonna do our best and things like that, but it

31:59

didn't charge guys up. People

31:59

didn't wanna follow him in the battle. Kenny

32:02

Pickett will get people to follow him in

32:04

the battle. I do think for the long

32:06

run, he will help the Steelers get into

32:08

a really good place. I just don't see it

32:10

starting when I win against the Buffalo Bills. Yeah. You wish

32:12

you wish this game was in ten

32:14

weeks. Right? Right. Yeah. This should be a lot more interesting.

32:16

Yeah. Oh, for sure. It's just I

32:18

think I'm I'm leaning into the

32:20

dynamics that we talked about with a rookie

32:23

quarterback on the road, good builds team, short

32:25

handed Pittsburgh team that's still kind of finding their

32:27

way offensively. Look, I'm

32:29

sure Steelers fans are listening to this and saying, this

32:31

Joe's a pompous jerk.

32:33

Right? Like, I I don't want anybody to feel that

32:35

way. I don't think they are. I I think everyone

32:37

knows that because I'm trying to just be honest

32:39

about these teams. You know what I mean? And I you

32:41

could go back and listen to my primer that I did on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Like,

32:43

III understand this

32:46

situation. It's just a big ask.

32:48

And maybe we'll we'll reflect on

32:50

this on our Monday podcast, and everyone's

32:53

gonna be, you know, having some type of thoughts

32:55

just like, well, I'll be honest with you, week one. Bill

32:57

Bill's lost

32:58

that game and and and it was

33:00

it was a, you

33:01

know, and so so they're

33:04

gonna play it. and we'll we'll see what

33:06

happens. But Chris, I do appreciate you

33:08

having a great conversation here, man. Always

33:10

always a blast talking about you. Same

33:11

here. It's a great it's a great chance to talk with you,

33:14

Joe. Thanks so much for for doing crossover,

33:16

Thursday with me. It's a lot of fun to talk football with

33:18

you. This man is so knowledgeable, Steelers

33:20

fans. If you don't know Joe Murray, you'll get to know on the man's at the draft network.

33:22

He does he does locked on, Bill. He does everything.

33:24

Go check Joe. Go check him out, subscribe.

33:27

And hey, give him five star ratings and Apple Podcasts. It's

33:29

like you give us five star ratings. That stuff does

33:31

help out both shows. Check check check

33:33

him out there. Check me out Chris Carter at

33:36

Carter critique You can also check me out at

33:38

the at the Pittsburgh post Gazette or post hyphen

33:40

Gazette dot com where I cover pet athletics. If

33:42

you're wondering about the next pet people to

33:44

come through after Kenny Pickett, they got Collagen to the

33:46

other guys. We are covering them all throughout the

33:48

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33:50

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33:52

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33:54

wherever like this video if you saw it on YouTube, subscribe to both of our

33:56

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33:58

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33:59

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34:01

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34:04

then of or locked on bills wherever you get your podcast. Absolutely.

34:06

That was a

34:06

fun crossover Thursday. Check us back on Friday for

34:08

both of our shows, locked on Steelers and

34:11

locked on bills. to catch both

34:14

of

34:15

our final thoughts

34:18

going into Sunday's

34:20

game. Hey,

34:31

guys. Mike

34:32

Velini for cash to ticket

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