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Hey, welcome back to the podcast. Today we have a very special episode because

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we're going to dig into some 2024 polling that really reveals a lot about where

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the culture's at on the abortion issue right now.

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This is the 2024 Knights of Columbus Marist Poll.

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This poll has a lot of stuff in it that I think you're going to find very unsettling,

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but it's stuff that we have to look at because if we're going to address these

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issues and look at the cultural impact and cultural direction of the abortion

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issue in the United States right now,

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we really have to rely upon this type of polling to a great extent.

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And this is polling that I think we can find a lot of trust in because of the

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source of who's doing it. So, you know, sometimes you have a poll and you look at immediately who commissioned

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the poll, and that tells you a lot about where that poll direction may be going.

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But this poll right here, it's been done for many years.

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The 2024 Knights of Columbus Marist Poll was released on January 17th of 2024.

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2024 and the huge takeaway from this poll is that 66% of Americans support placing

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legal limits on abortion, nearly 6 in 10 supporting limiting abortions, but here's the problem,

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to the first three months of pregnancy.

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We're going to talk about that as we get into this poll. The survey was conducted

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by the Marist Poll and commissioned annually by the Knights of Columbus.

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I knew they'd been doing it for a long time, but it's an annual thing.

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It also found that 83% of Americans support pregnancy resource centers.

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You have to wonder who wouldn't, but there you go. We're going to talk about that as well.

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The poll found that two-thirds of Americans believe healthcare professionals

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with religious objections to abortions should not be legally required to do

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the abortions and be involved with them. Now, 86% of respondents, and here's the huge takeaway, I think the biggest point

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of this entire poll, believe that laws can protect both the mother.

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And her unborn child. That's a huge, that's a huge area of opportunity that

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we have to pay attention to with that. So just a little bit about the methodology, and then we'll dive into some of

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the specific results on it. This was a survey of 1,371 adults.

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It was conducted from January 8th through January 9th of 2024 by the Marist

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Poll, and it was in sponsorship, partnership with the Knights of Columbus.

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Now the survey questions were available in English or Spanish.

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There were phone and online samples that were selected to ensure that each region

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was represented in proportion to its adult population.

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The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2022 American Community

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Survey five-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region.

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Don't understand all of that, but this is the way they're doing it.

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And this tells me that they're doing the poll scientifically and not just throwing

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darts and seeing what comes as a result.

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The results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

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There were 1,254 registered voters amongst these 1,371 results.

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So that's kind of the background of this whole thing. So why don't we just dive

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into it? I've got it just sitting here on my desk right now.

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So why don't we just talk through it as we go through it and see what we find with it.

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The first big page that you're going to find in this report,

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and actually we'll have this posted online in our blog section at lovetimes2.org,

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so you can check it out, download it for yourself,

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see all of the results, and analyze them and make up your own mind what you think it's saying.

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But when we look at the first major portion on this, whether individuals who

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respond to this identified as pro-life or pro-choice, that's the terminology

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that's used in this poll, so that's what you're going to hear me say, but that's what was asked.

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Do you identify as pro-life or pro-choice?

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Pro-choice. So here in 2024, according to this poll, it shows that there were

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58% of respondents who identified as pro-choice and 40% who responded as pro-life.

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So that's an 18% differential between pro-choice and pro-life.

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That's a drop in the gap actually from 2023 when it was 61% pro-choice and and

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39% pro-life, which was a 22% differential.

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So it's moved four points into pro-life direction.

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Now, that possibly could indicate that we're seeing a reset to a new normal

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following the 2022 Dobbs decision that overturned Roe versus Wade.

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There typically is a period of time after a major Supreme Court decision like

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we had with Dobbs in which there's a reaction against the the decision.

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Don't know why, but Americans typically have followed a pattern throughout history

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in which they tend to punish the disruptors of the status quo.

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That's the best way I could put it. And so then you have the media overreaction

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to it and so many other things going on.

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But in 2023, that differential between those who identified as pro-choice and

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pro-life was 22%. that's dropped to 18% in 2024.

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It's interesting that when you look at this, and I really do hope that you download

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this and take a look at it yourself, because they've charted since 2009 how

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people have responded to this question. Are you self-identified as pro-choice or do you identify as pro-life?

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The only time since 2009 where it was exactly the same, 47 versus 47, was in February of 2019.

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Now, I found that intriguing because in January of 2019, that gap was 55% identifying

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as pro-choice and 38% identifying as pro-life.

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But then one month later, they're both identifying as 47%.

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So naturally being curious about this, I just went online and typed in abortion

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February 2019 because when you see something like that happen,

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that big of a swing happening, within a one-month period of time,

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something big was going on. And actually, there were two big things that went on.

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One actually happened towards the end of January 2019.

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So remember, it was 55% identified pro-choice, 38% identified pro-life.

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But at the end of January of 2019, New York passed a law that basically said it doesn't matter.

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What the Supreme Court does with Roe v. Wade. New York was going to keep abortion

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legal for the full nine months of pregnancy. They had a huge celebration about it. It was one of the spike the football in

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your face moments from the New York legislature and governor to the rest of

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the country to say New York is going to be all about abortion.

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And so that obviously was a trigger that started to lessen the gap.

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And then in February of 2019, the U.S. Congress was having the debate on the

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Born Alive Infants Protection Act.

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That's legislation to protect babies who are actually born alive as a result

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of an abortion, to say those babies must receive medical care and compassionate, humane care.

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And that was going through the legislature in 2019. So you had those two big things.

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You had New York's law and you had the Born Alive Infants Protection Act colliding,

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it led to a huge drop in support for abortion in February of 2019.

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So what this shows is that new cycles can have a huge impact and that late-term

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abortion discussions or abortion survivor discussions, I guess I should say,

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they also have a huge impact.

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But I also have to think just the in-your-face attitude of New York and the

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way that the media played it up and so forth, the American public apparently found that repelling.

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So anyways, that's very fascinating when you look at that on the whole chart

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of self-identification as pro-life versus pro-choice.

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So now we're going to move into restrictions on abortion and what this poll found, again, in 2024.

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And when you look at the restrictions on it, it breaks down to 29% of Americans,

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29% of respondents to this poll.

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I always forget to throw that in, but there it is.

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Respondents to the poll, 29% said abortion should be legal anytime during the entire pregnancy.

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13% said abortion should be allowed only during the first six months of pregnancy.

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And then you get to the big gap or the big group of 58%. And that's really the

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group that's quoted as the main point of this poll, but 58% of respondents said

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that either abortion should be allowed.

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Only during the first three months of pregnancy. That's 18%.

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Or they said abortion should only be allowed for the cases of rape,

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incest, or to save the life of the mother. That's 22%. Or those who said abortion should be allowed only to save the life of the mother.

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That's 9%. And then down to 9% who said abortion should never be permitted under any circumstance.

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So I know when you look at this, and even they're lumped together here saying,

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hey, the majority of Americans support some type of restrictions.

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Let's be honest about it. The 18% that's included here that say abortion should

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be allowed anytime during the first three months of pregnancy,

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I don't have the exact stat for what that is nationwide, but my guess is that's

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well over 90% of abortions are going to happen during that time,

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especially with the rise of chemical abortifacients, well over 90%.

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There's not much to shout about in that, honestly, when you look look at that poll.

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So we can try and spin it any way we want to and say, hey, this number of Americans

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support restrictions on abortion. You take that 18% that supports over 90% of abortions that are happening,

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and that isn't a very positive thing to hang our hat on.

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Now, when we look at restrictions on abortion and where that's trending,

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when we take all of that data that I just discussed and this poll takes it all the way back to 2009.

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The breakdown is not very uplifting as well.

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In fact, when you look at the data that's on here on the restrictions, what you see is a trend.

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The restrictions between people who say at most abortions should be within the

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first three months compared to those who say any time at all or six months, that gap is 58% to 42%.

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That's only a 16 percentage point gap.

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And in comparison, take that back to 2009,

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when 86% of Americans said that at most, a restriction should be in the first

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three months, or I guess I should say if abortion is allowed at most,

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it should be allowed within the first three months versus 14%.

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Who said that abortion should be available anytime or at most six months of a restriction on it.

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So you look at 86% versus 14%, that was a 72% gap in differences on the respondents

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to this poll, and that's plummeted down to 58% versus 42%.

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That is a major, major gap and should be alarming Because what we're seeing clearly on this is that,

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in fact, as you look at it, the lines from that big separation point in May

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2009 are just coming down and completely just moving closer and closer together,

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except for spikes in different years.

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For example, February 2019, we've already talked about that.

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Suddenly, it spiked back up. 80% of Americans said abortion at most should only

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be legal within the first three months. And then you take that all the way down and to where we're at now at 58 to 42%,

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and they're both heading on a collision course.

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So the collision course is really heading for somewhere around a general tie.

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If you will, in polling between Americans who think abortion should be completely

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unrestricted or maybe some restrictions at six months versus those who would

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say abortion should be available but no more than three months.

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And this is why, this is exactly why, frankly, this is why you're hearing so

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much in the news about a 15-week abortion ban and that being thrown about and so forth.

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There are those who are looking at it, and instead of operating on principle,

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they're operating on truth. Pragmatism, and they're looking at where is the sweet spot potentially with

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all of this. Well, there is no sweet spot. If we're going to arrive at some place where we start to talk about the pragmatic

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polling of where is abortion acceptable versus talking about everyone deserves

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a chance to be born because everyone is created in the image of God.

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This part of this poll right here tells me we're losing that discussion.

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Hate to say it, but we're losing in that discussion when we see that gap narrowing.

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And again, with the rise of chemical abortifacients, that's going to become

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increasingly a larger and larger issue because that 15-week,

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14-week, 13-week, whatever weeks are thrown out there, chemical abortifacients,

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the majority of abortions are going to be done within that time frame.

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Hey, that's it for this episode of the podcast. I hope that you are subscribing to this podcast so you never miss an episode.

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