China has seen a sharp rebound after the successful opening of its economy in spring last year. Now its economy is slowing as the effect of the stimulus is fading. In this podcast we discuss the nature of the slowdown and what it could mean for

Macro Strategy Views - Ineffective vaccines - the biggest tail-risk to the global recovery

Jan 25th, 2021 29m 31s

In today’s podcast, we zoom in on the biggest tail-risk to the global economy in our view: If vaccines turn out not to be as effective as expected in the face of new virus mutations, then it is likely restrictions will have to remain in place f

Macro Strategy Views: What’s next for Europe and European yields?

Jan 18th, 2021 28m 15s

In today’s podcast, we zoom in on Europe. In 2020, Europe lived up to its old mantra of never wasting a crisis, undertaking far-reaching measures not only on the ECB side but also with regard to national and EU level fiscal policies in response

Macro Strategy Views: Democratic clean sweep opens up for repricing Fed, stronger USD

Jan 11th, 2021 26m 29s

In today’s podcast, we discuss the implications of last week’s surprising Democratic Party victory in Georgia. Near term, we expect a bigger fiscal support package, a stronger US recovery in 2021 and the Fed’s current stance to be challenged, a

Macro Strategy Views: The world in 2021 – faster recovery, higher equities and stronger USD

Dec 7th, 2020 34m 21s

In today’s podcast, we discuss our 2021 outlook across macro, FX and equity markets. We expect the recovery to gain speed from Q2 and EUR/USD to head lower in 2021, while we believe higher US rates will not derail the equity rally. We also disc

Macro Strategy Views: Brexit deal likely within a week

Nov 30th, 2020 22m 20s

In today’s podcast, we discuss the current state of the Brexit negotiations, what will happen in the event of a deal or no deal and why negotiations may start again within the next year if there is no deal. We argue that there is a decent chanc

Macro Strategy Views: ESG credit risk at your doorstep – our framework and sector implications

Nov 23rd, 2020 31m 52s

In today’s podcast, we outline our framework for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risk in corporate bonds in light of the EU taxonomy. We discuss physical and transition risks in the pulp and paper, shipping and real

Macro Strategy Views: Vaccines, lockdowns and the economy

Nov 16th, 2020 22m 32s

In today’s podcast, we discuss the prospects for new vaccines emerging and the risk of a US lockdown. We view the risk to the global economy as much more balanced now, with a possible upside twist, despite it being likely the US will need to im

Macro Strategy Views: The political, economic and financial implications of the US election

Nov 9th, 2020 32m 15s

In today’s podcast we discuss what Biden’s win means for the USA’s relationship with China and what implications it has for economic policies. We discuss his transatlantic approach to China, the size of the COVID-19 package, and whether it will

Macro Strategy Views – Europe’s W, a Biden win and the outlook for markets

Nov 2nd, 2020 18m 51s

In today’s podcast, we discuss the partial lockdowns in Europe and the US election. Europe is likely to contract in Q4 given the blow to certain service sectors but we believe that Europe’s downturn in Q4 will be much milder than that in Q2. If

Macro Strategy Views: Now the hard part - crisis to extend but not escalate

Oct 26th, 2020 26m 12s

Today, we discuss why restrictions in Europe are likely to remain in place for many months but why the bar for broad lockdowns similar to those in the spring is high. We also discuss why fiscal and monetary policy are set to remain stimulative

Macro Strategy Views: The short- and long-term consequences of Brexit

Oct 19th, 2020 24m 1s

Today, we discuss why we think the EU and UK are moving closer to each other in the negotiations, the difference between a deal and no-deal and the implications for financial markets. We also discuss the medium-term implications for the UK econ

Macro Strategy Views: Slower growth, downside risks but higher equities

Oct 12th, 2020 32m 1s

Today, we discuss the scenarios for the global economy and what they imply for equities. We argue that growth will slow and risks are skewed on the downside but a possible double-dip recession in 2021 could ease in the later part of the year du

Macro Strategy Views: How the US election could boost the US economy and equities

Sep 28th, 2020 28m 42s

Today, we discuss the US election and the implications for the economy and equities. We discuss the degree to which a united democratic government would lead to a demand boost and how this compares with a republican sweep. We discuss the implic

Macro Strategy Views: Hawkish Norges Bank and FAITing Riksbank

Sep 21st, 2020 28m 55s

Today, we discuss why we expect Norges Bank to lift the rate path this week, signalling a full rate hike by Q2 22. We argue why, from a risk-reward perspective, it makes sense to position for higher short-end and belly rates, while any NOK st

Macro Strategy Views: Inflation at 3% - how to get there?

Sep 14th, 2020 30m 57s

Today, we discuss what could drive much higher inflation rates over coming years. We discuss a fast recovery, the Fed’s change and its influence on the ECB, monetary financing of expansionary fiscal policies and a political shift to a progressi

Macro Strategy Views – Reflation, equity rotation and the impact on credit markets

Sep 7th, 2020 32m 55s

Today, we discuss whether the volatility experienced in particularly equity markets late last week is set to continue. Positioning and retail involvement suggest that more is in store but the macro-drivers - vaccine developments and Fed action

Macro Strategy Views - No Nordic cliff edge after state support ends

Aug 31st, 2020 23m 41s

The phasing out of COVID-19 support measures is set to affect people and companies in the Nordic countries. We discuss whether the end of support schemes will lead to higher unemployment rates and bankruptcies in the region. Global Head of FI

Macro Strategy Views: Is the reflation theme Dead?

Aug 24th, 2020 28m 19s

The reflation theme has dominated financial markets in recent months, driving stocks higher, depressing credit risk premiums and weakening the USD. However, over the past week inflation expectations dipped, the USD stabilised and nominal yields

Macro Strategy Views: Why equities are not expensive

Aug 17th, 2020 24m 31s

The reflation theme is broadening, with higher yields and steeper curves. However, is the recent financial performance as good as it gets and how do future risks compare with current market pricing and thereby expected return? We argue that equ

Macro Strategy Views - Is it time to revisit the crisis narrative?

Aug 10th, 2020 22m

The market recovery is extraordinarily fast but this is also a very different crisis. The economic rebound is much faster than during previous crises, which is due to the nature of the crisis and the policy stimulus. We discuss whether it is ti

Macro Strategy Views – Cross-asset allocations and the importance of the USD

Jun 29th, 2020 25m 44s

This week, we discuss a systematic framework for analysing investments, which distinguishes secular trends from tactical asset views. In our view, the USD is a key driver of asset returns, which is often overlooked. We discuss whether we are at

Macro Strategy Views: The US Virus Risk And Nordic Outperformance

Jun 22nd, 2020 25m 58s

This week marked a clear worsening in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida and Arizona. Meanwhile, over the past month the global recovery has been faster than most people thought likely one or two months ago. The Nordics are outp

Macro Strategy Views: The Fed’s forward guidance and YCC – will it work?

Jun 15th, 2020 31m 17s

The Fed learned the importance of explicit and aggressive forward guidance at an early stage in the GFC, tied either to specific dates or to economic outcomes. The current forward guidance is weak as it is neither explicit nor aggressive. There

Macro Strategy Views Recovery, Reflation And Asset Rotation

Jun 8th, 2020 27m 55s

The market is likely to price a higher chance of a fast recovery due to non-farm payroll, German stimulus and the ECB. We believe that investors should focus on opportunities where 1) solid fundamentals support an extension of the current rally