0:05

This is trend-following radio with

0:08

great thinking Comes Alive. Nobel

0:11

Prize winners. Legendary Traders

0:13

best selling authors and the that

0:16

know what drives us

0:18

your rational human beings. I

0:21

am your host. Michael covel not

0:24

filter. Raw honest.

0:26

That's my passion.

0:34

Going back to one of the founding fathers.

0:37

Of system's training of trend following today.

0:40

My guest build

0:42

your eyes. It takes

0:44

his experience back to the nineteen Seventies.

0:48

Maybe even earlier. Not

0:50

unlike many. Rogue

0:53

trader, so to speak, and Bill might not like

0:55

that word, but. That's a rogue affectionately.

0:58

Somebody outside the system doing his

1:00

own saying. Going about

1:03

it his own way choosing his life.

1:06

Frankly, life of freedom. They did

1:08

not go the direction of having the most assets

1:10

under management. What he has endured

1:13

for decades. With an approach.

1:17

It's rock, solid scientific

1:19

way. This is one of those moments

1:21

where you get chance. The dive

1:23

into the mind of someone. Essentially

1:27

founding father in the industry.

1:29

I hope you enjoyed this conversation.

1:31

With systems, trader, build your eyes.

1:45

I want to jump in with one of your.

1:48

don't know if you call them your heroes, but it's

1:50

been warm and abroad, want to stay

1:52

at something very philosophical the beginning.

1:55

And he had a point in talking about the

1:57

two thousand and eight time period

1:59

so. And he's talking about the efficient

2:01

market siri proponents the.

2:04

he says they like to take these two thousand

2:06

and eight advance and sweep

2:08

them under them rug slicker an act of god

2:10

and forget about them i'm sure

2:12

you connect with that's what you tell

2:14

the audience where he's really going with

2:16

that The actually what he's

2:18

saying is that. The Mr. Just for

2:21

brave new markets.

2:22

Or not random boss is a bias

2:25

in the markets, his persistence in the markets.

2:27

It leads mathematically.

2:30

The do for because felt tales.

2:33

This. is an intrinsic characteristics

2:35

of the market, it is not sort of an exceptional

2:38

or something that's how the ordinary

2:40

it's an intrinsic behavior of the market,

2:43

what I did it or" Is working from and abroad

2:45

applied his idea hose fractal

2:48

dimension to the different markets.

2:51

They actually did an analysis of

2:53

all the Marcus to see if they had A

2:55

are essentially a proud of the dimensions,

2:57

but indicated that they were persist.

3:00

After going through all the markets and finding

3:02

out to be true to go sense.

3:05

I heard what consider to be a scientific

3:07

argument for men robots

3:10

that conjecture nursery. say

3:12

he saying that the official market

3:14

hi guys got it wrong when they

3:16

were assuming that the markets around

3:19

Part of the reason for that and my opinion

3:22

was that. These were. overcoming

3:24

suitable, I said they were unable to

3:27

beat the market themselves so they decided

3:29

that nobody else could be either and

3:31

then came up with the idea that the markets

3:33

where.

3:34

The early read what's notable, but Mandel's

3:36

routes first paper on Fractals

3:39

dealt with the cotton merchants, his first

3:41

paper on fractal geometry

3:44

dealt with the future's market

3:46

and thought he started off in

3:48

that direction.

3:49

There was the exception there was a book called

3:52

the Random Nature of Stock Market Prices,

3:54

are stock prices there was popular

3:57

back in the Fifties or Sixties, and

3:59

he was the. The setting or is an

4:01

aversion to the rain, boxer it martyrs

4:04

even now seems to be embedded

4:06

in the academic year of them are it's slowing

4:09

since been proven not only

4:11

by. Analysis, but

4:13

despite experience for pets, have to.

4:16

That's pretty much. "The I do

4:18

with the markets do in fact out

4:20

felt tales from", he said. This.

4:23

That's except it's certainly am market

4:25

because France. That's it provides.

4:28

The basis for. The info. It

4:30

basically says that turns persist

4:33

flounder. Then would be expected

4:36

if it were a random distribution. And

4:38

for that extra extensive is.

4:41

It provides the opportunity for. Going

4:43

forward to work is true for everybody,

4:46

but particular methodology I use

4:48

is based on track to challenge me. But

4:51

the persistence in the markets is what

4:53

makes. The any reasonable

4:55

transport system? The operation.

4:58

Let me keep it at The word academic

5:01

for a moment someone looks at back,

5:03

rather go to like, well, Bill, mighty

5:05

Harvard. This is the start of

5:07

what somebody calls academic pedigree. But

5:09

you go to the more practical side.

5:12

Of of I will speak to you in a while, but

5:14

early on operations, research defense

5:16

Contracting, what not. So, you saw

5:18

your side of that, but then

5:20

you go the speculative side,

5:22

go out there and kill it. Entrepreneurial

5:25

side, your

5:26

Pioneer. You been doing this for a long I'm

5:28

going to go back to your early career and

5:30

second. But what were you thinking

5:33

while you're trading,

5:35

you're making money. Are

5:37

you making lot of money over many decades, all

5:40

of these academic folks are getting all

5:42

this publicity, all of these Raw.

5:45

messages are going around. And

5:47

I'm not going to see you or other trend followers

5:49

were an entire anonymity,

5:52

but it was pretty anonymous for

5:54

very long time, what were your internal

5:56

thoughts, would you would watch these academics

5:59

going down this? One path and here you are actually

6:01

living it and seeing something entirely

6:03

different. The talks about my academic

6:06

good agree, but. "The stepped out of their

6:08

so", he says, just in time.

6:10

I went to work for it's intention, California

6:13

of, and got out of business school. We

6:15

were doing pretty much state of the art modeling

6:18

in terms of for structure analysis

6:20

of.

6:21

The for targeting that sort of thing this was

6:23

at the height of the Cold War. The lot

6:25

about thought looking at things

6:27

from first principles that isn't

6:30

set of taking existing tools

6:32

we actually read, arrived

6:34

or vented various techniques

6:36

that led us into a much work independently

6:39

of section about this. Well,

6:41

I found over the years is that at their numbers

6:44

top it's in which the scientific

6:46

consensus is not supported,

6:49

but this is sort of one of my early discovery,

6:52

so the point is said to some extent

6:54

said the academics are over

6:56

educated that is they'd learn. Models

6:59

generally says it's models that they don't try

7:01

to apply to markets. These

7:04

models are not appropriate. Had

7:06

they started it and a more basic

7:09

level in analyzing these things, they come

7:11

out the same place that I've come out

7:13

and with are traitors. The freedom

7:15

that you had.

7:17

Is what gave you the advantage, the freedom to go

7:19

down the path and explore?

7:21

Yeah, that's exactly right, in fact, I've

7:23

lived my life to sort of maximize

7:25

that freedom new the we're arranged

7:27

my life. He'll be optimistic

7:30

about lot of singers, sorry say independently

7:33

of a structure. "The is

7:35

in some ways fairly restrictive,

7:38

the whole idea of publishing and other

7:40

words, most at the missions, have day

7:42

job. "The system from spending

7:45

lot of time doing pretty, thank

7:47

you so", I said. think

7:49

just heard that. Freedom of not

7:51

be a net institutionalized

7:54

and bar. Do I think that's true,

7:56

she talked other cities find

7:59

visit? A lot of similarities. The

8:01

to a man. I know about a city

8:03

or it's have been interested in physics

8:06

and interested and various other topics

8:08

that had nothing to do as he chairs and had.

8:10

The original ideas of his topics that

8:12

are not in the text books when it or

8:14

not graduated, as these are educated,

8:17

challenged people. There's another world

8:19

after that exists more

8:21

or less independent of academic. The

8:24

for you.

8:26

The even got to the point that you had

8:28

some your early. [Friend

8:30

Following Systems] What

8:32

would have been the first time? Example

8:35

that you read about or understood

8:38

as? someone else doing this

8:40

trend following sang with that have been gone she

8:42

and

8:43

Yeah, I was introduced to dance and

8:45

by my boss at the Sphinx

8:47

think was written and he was a retired air

8:49

force. There are no. Come

8:52

across don't see how he sort of introduced me

8:54

to dance in we got me interested and I

8:57

had access for Airforce computers

8:59

we had a little bit of damage in.

9:01

terms of testing systems apart

9:03

mouth i read edwards and muggy

9:06

how the bible of technical analysis

9:08

and analysis found that someone else someone

9:10

the tracks are found that most of the patterns

9:13

that they use we're now informative

9:16

Really the only patterns it counted were

9:18

things like tremors and support and assistance

9:21

so. set out to design a system

9:23

that automated That kind of

9:25

capital to the. There was my first

9:28

system later on my

9:30

second system, the one that started net to

9:32

enlighten are they want. Was based

9:34

upon. A more sophisticated

9:36

analysis of the data that is

9:39

that came from Mandlebrot but,

9:41

generally the same features that my

9:43

original all of them in terms of frontlines

9:46

of support and assistance

9:48

Keep your that early stage so I'm

9:50

curious I bring up dancin you

9:52

bring up Edwards Muggy two very

9:55

different sinkings what.

9:57

did you do with done she and The

10:00

you first saw what he was doing

10:02

and understood what he was doing.

10:03

Did you go ahead code? It reverse-engineer

10:06

it and figure it all out for yourself member

10:08

I correctly.

10:17

the. i was pretty basic stuff The

10:19

early days simple systems work.

10:22

Really well, because nobody was using you're

10:24

competing against. discretionary

10:27

traders who had all the elements

10:29

of that. They were treated.

10:32

Almost any system. Would beat

10:34

what the average discretionary traded

10:36

with the. That changed a bit

10:39

over time as more and more people got it business,

10:41

but nevertheless the businesses pretty

10:43

much the same as it was that is it's matter

10:45

of designing system and then

10:47

sticking with. That he keep you

10:50

also have some of those early. Early

10:52

stage two. Personal

10:55

philosophies. In preparing

10:57

to talk with you today.

10:59

I don't know if saw you use the word necessarily

11:02

but I'm sure you have at various times I.

11:04

started to think of isolation in

11:07

the sense that

11:08

Here you are. You're figuring out

11:10

where you want to go. You got

11:12

a few pieces of information that

11:14

you did appoint some other people and other

11:16

things you weren't necessarily

11:18

on collaborative This was kind of like

11:20

you and your thoughts. You

11:23

are. calling up Bill done and John Henry nets

11:25

Dakota, you are doing your own thing. That's

11:27

what I should say we're during their own to.

11:30

We were all discovering the same phenomena,

11:33

the shooter. There's people you imagine

11:35

I know. That's gotta admit

11:37

Margaret Burger. It basically made the

11:39

same. Discovery, if that's

11:41

the word. Oh, I should say they

11:44

confirmed the discovery of township.

11:46

The a system. Would

11:49

generally be. discretionary traitors

11:51

you most readers in terms of

11:53

the market this is all been talked

11:55

about extensively recently with

11:58

Daniel Kahneman in. here The

12:00

fiction fast and slow me talks about

12:02

how. This was preparing

12:04

for missions against simple

12:07

systems, the systems tend to do

12:09

better. Not because they're smarter,

12:11

but just because. There are more reliable

12:14

they aren't subject to lot of biases

12:16

more psychological biases and other kinds

12:18

of bias, as that tend to

12:20

work The guess? The

12:23

trade rumors were really born with certain

12:25

psychological biases and they're

12:27

very hard director. The

12:29

course's assistance traded the hardest

12:31

thing to do is to separate the sauce. Because

12:34

you're always looking at the markets near say

12:36

no details maybe it's going somewhere

12:38

else or whatever the, most

12:41

important part that is understood by

12:43

all of it's traders the to mention them and

12:45

any but he had successful attempts on.

12:48

his you basically gotta sit with gotta system

12:50

regardless usage

12:53

the markets around the do. But

12:55

when you first saw.

12:57

Thinking. Fast thinking slow her, you are

12:59

a trend following traitor doing this for decades

13:02

back to the Seventies, even the Sixties, but

13:04

would you see thinking fast thinking slow for the

13:06

first? Time is other aside

13:08

as you not to take anything away from Daniel condiments

13:11

isn't there Saudi view this as well gosh me?

13:14

and some of my peers figured

13:16

little bit of this out long time ago before

13:18

it was popular with scissors zero

13:20

the you read this and the says but by the same

13:23

token been your phone with He's doing

13:25

his work.

13:26

That about the same time that we were doing

13:28

our and we were are pretty different

13:30

spheres and maybe we didn't know

13:32

about him didn't know about us but

13:35

by the same token there. wasn't

13:37

like we scooped daniel kind of this

13:39

is where we were flying us and we were

13:41

plotting his first application

13:44

of an algorithm to clinical

13:46

practice Was that in

13:48

the syllabus so? The just a matter

13:50

of different people working on different fields,

13:53

they were discoveries.

13:55

Let me take you back to where I started this

13:57

conversation with cause would love for you to put

13:59

your for the. Sorial hat on

14:01

to the extent you watch, let's

14:03

imagine you get a room full of doctor's

14:05

attorneys, young and be is

14:07

all kinds of people. They don't

14:09

know about you, they say,

14:12

gosh, he did really well

14:14

in two thousand and eight. I

14:16

saw that movie, the big short in the one

14:18

guy did really well in the movie, the big short.

14:21

Like this guy, Bill, he did something

14:23

different. He was in all

14:25

kinds of markets. They

14:27

were moving, give a

14:30

blow by blow as to why

14:32

year and there can be many years

14:34

and many events we could go through bits, two thousand

14:36

eight seems like good one. Why is

14:39

that year could unfolds

14:41

to where you could do so well? "A

14:44

lot of people think if they hear your track

14:46

record for that particular year still think

14:48

oh is he did with the big short guy did

14:50

or he does sort of the US in peace, they won't have

14:52

this holistic thinking that it was

14:54

all of these markets movie" There is

14:56

no decision.

14:57

The border process there was the business

15:00

I was in. Didn't change

15:02

my trading at home might say that

15:04

this was a banner year for all City

15:06

it's for us all. chancellor's

15:09

The simple reason was the markets trended

15:12

very strongly. Anybody was

15:14

the trend father was done or capitalized

15:16

on. The difference between me and the

15:18

guise of the bit sore. They

15:20

actually dug into this stuff's and figured

15:23

out what was going on at specific

15:25

plan to deal with it, May

15:27

I was just. Like it. There

15:30

was just a market situation. Which

15:32

was very amenable to

15:34

the way that I trade. didn't

15:37

do anything different it in for see

15:39

anything didn't foresee you crash

15:42

and a saying it just happened and I was in

15:44

the right place right time. What your

15:46

strategy from the ground up

15:48

with?

15:49

Bill to take with the markets, give you

15:51

weren't trying to tell the markets to give you what

15:53

you want any particular time you're saying I'll take

15:56

what you give me. That's right and that's

15:58

again her physicians from it the.

16:00

It's an exhibit, persistence and

16:02

persistence is what allows me

16:04

another term followers to make money.

16:07

I know going back in time. Surfer.

16:10

The fan of surfing. How long have you served?

16:14

started surfing when go out with college

16:16

and excellent. Sort of the bargain,

16:18

mean, one of the reasons got into quantities

16:20

was to do with something out to do. The

16:22

wherever want it to live wherever

16:24

wanted to sign, my

16:26

life around surfing Living

16:29

in most cases but she corrected serve

16:32

liquor. stores himself the last few

16:34

years sorry There was a taper

16:36

off bit just because rage quit

16:38

for long time surfing really define

16:41

my life, the find where I lived

16:43

him when spent my time doing. We're

16:46

talk about a lot of things respiration or today, but.

16:48

That's a really inspirational point for people

16:50

to think of in this day and age, we're so many people.

16:53

Don't design their allies. Maybe

16:56

they talk about it has lot of books about designing your

16:58

life today, but it's really cool story.

17:01

That you decided early on, man, I love surfing.

17:04

Wow, this commodity trading, and okay, I can

17:06

get a system, and then I can choose

17:08

how live. Putting that

17:10

altogether of people talk about this and

17:12

social media Cheryl, these ideas now and

17:15

Tim Ferris has a book about what you just described,

17:18

but you are doing it long time before,

17:20

did you have any body and your

17:22

life that was? Giving you the

17:25

freedom ideas to go live that way

17:27

or did you just look at and say okay, this

17:29

trading thing looks really cool, I really want to serve

17:31

well as connect the dots here and this is what I'm to

17:33

do.

17:34

It's sort of a ball that wasn't necessarily

17:37

something that came to me at all at once

17:39

but. What I remember is that.

17:41

I was working for a company

17:44

and during out and I looked on assault. And

17:46

thought about photo by my boss or with

17:48

his job. What it works

17:50

sixty hours away? Eighty hours

17:52

a week or whatever. Make more money

17:55

and buy car big house and then, and

17:57

then what about his boss or want to be?

18:00

His boss and realized I know

18:02

want to have leisure time away retire

18:04

when know. Then can do

18:06

those things around physically and mentally.

18:09

The able to do the things want to do

18:12

or worry about my old age or get there.

18:14

Is there anything in the surfing mentality

18:17

that you've connected to your trading or

18:19

that you see philosophically

18:22

the act of surfing?

18:23

There's also challenged surfer him,

18:26

and especially when I got into

18:28

I'd never sort of an album fatality,

18:30

yeah. The idea of being

18:33

free and be able to free. The

18:36

able to travel and they have followed

18:38

the serve the surface a very sorry

18:40

so jealous companions because

18:42

when it comes up to go to be there and there was

18:44

this I like skiing or something or the snow

18:47

on the mountains and ago the ski

18:49

it's. a town The comes

18:52

up. What used to be unpredictable

18:54

times and you had to be available

18:56

to go surfing when the surfers?

18:59

There was general characteristics

19:01

of the sport from the world

19:03

I live in the surfing world. The

19:05

way lived as a way that

19:07

lot of people that weren't necessarily

19:09

mighty traders they were cab.

19:12

drivers are doctors anybody

19:14

who kid and manage their own lives

19:17

to the point where they to do what they

19:19

wanted more or less when they wanted to and

19:21

so after while the best as the world i

19:23

flew back from us to my eyes and

19:25

a course the other The birds

19:27

of as I've been able to say about lot of

19:30

this phase in depth. The

19:32

smile the isn't surfeit

19:34

number been able to the. free

19:36

rein the might imagine server

19:39

my research The other sales.

19:41

There was also the broader

19:43

movement of the counter culture, or know

19:45

this to had to do with dropping out

19:48

or whatever, but I wasn't really dropping out,

19:50

was just adopting that attitude

19:52

towards women. The focus

19:55

on more on the moments that aren't

19:57

planning to the future accumulating oil.

20:00

The what ever?

20:01

One just curiosity serving question

20:03

was there ever may be all, maybe

20:05

non, did any of your surfing companions

20:07

ever come up to speed or? The

20:10

did inkling of the career that you are living.

20:13

Yeah, nobody really knows what it's like

20:15

to be a traitor. Except for trade.

20:18

The other have a know what I did that make

20:20

my money by trading the markets and that than

20:22

took me a lot of time and. Insecure

20:25

program as on a sofa. Some

20:27

of them are well educated, sophisticated

20:29

them. Have general idea

20:31

of what I did. The people.

20:34

in the surf know The profession,

20:37

as the idea was to pay, it all

20:39

worked out a way it worked out their own

20:42

lives. That's that

20:44

they could be free to be surfing

20:46

at least that allow the time the be available

20:49

when the system. My view,

20:51

I know purchases at first, just

20:53

said had a particular was is

20:55

making yourself available to the surface

20:57

and. The people had their own what

20:59

isn't it was sort of the beginning of

21:01

it most days there, were loud

21:03

people that did that you pretty much went. through

21:06

all the steps to your career allow

21:08

them I just stepped off

21:10

the bus or yes. Did you always

21:12

have?

21:14

The even keel that I see right now,

21:16

even when you were let's say twenty one or did you were,

21:18

you always pragmatic and thoughtful

21:20

about how you looked at things very even,

21:22

Keel. wouldn't call myself a detailed,

21:25

I was too crazy. Yeah,

21:27

okay, give me a couple of crazies before

21:29

I'd get into more trend bali. Well

21:33

that, have no for the goes I have ah,

21:36

OK let's go back to turn falling back

21:38

falling the day years with dawn she is doing

21:40

you look at Edwards and. muggy and

21:43

you've probably got it i don't know you'll tell me but

21:46

maybe some inclination about were

21:48

some other people were going at that point going

21:50

time and point guess you could have gone

21:53

the dancin direction and you could have as

21:55

you described have fairly simple approach your

21:57

approach simple checked out years

22:00

Interview with Neil's at top

22:02

traders and yields good guy and but

22:04

your approaches. This is

22:06

a touch more complicated than

22:09

typical train falling price action systems,

22:12

it seems like you're getting to the same place,

22:15

but you're getting there and your own unique

22:17

way.

22:18

Yeah, I guess was taken by the geometrical

22:22

aspects of traditional

22:24

technical analysis, my

22:26

original idea. Was? To

22:28

take what was valuable and that

22:30

technical analysis and turn it into

22:32

a system so that it was not based

22:35

on judgment in other words if you're drawing

22:37

trend lines with. Things like that if you're doing

22:39

that from discretionary, they says

22:41

there's lot of different possibilities that. The

22:44

course or changes when you're in position

22:47

of are using your judgment to term

22:49

where you get the trend lines and

22:52

of course that leads to. The kind

22:54

of inconsistency been trying to avoid

22:56

all I did was take what seemed to be

22:58

fairly straightforward. Rules

23:01

and turned it into such the

23:03

A System a computer program. You think

23:05

that Edwards and Muggy?

23:07

I'm assuming the answer would be no, they

23:09

put that worked together with out. The

23:12

systematic. Computer approach

23:15

the you did.

23:16

I put my original system together largely

23:18

without computers because was

23:20

one of the first people to have a P.C. back to

23:23

nineteen, seventy six and

23:25

an active seven seats. The most

23:28

of my system, development and system

23:30

testing and all that. The murder

23:32

or was see or be chart next semester.

23:35

Then I had a computer

23:37

mentality, so he said you don't

23:39

have to have computer to run system.

23:42

"The have to think like the computer, the

23:44

other words do the same thing over and

23:46

over computerizing V

23:49

strategy was just a matter of taking

23:51

math logic those procedures.

23:54

In program. at

23:56

and from Running you go ahead

23:59

because, as I mentioned. The second ago, your approach.

24:02

Fractal.

24:04

We need algorithm, as you describe, it is

24:06

quite a different approach, then

24:08

if somebody was to explain A. breakouts

24:11

price action trading system is

24:14

getting to similar. The

24:16

ending. It's taking what the market

24:18

gives you it's try to get the meat

24:21

of the trends, how would you describe?

24:24

The fractal wait algorithm to. The

24:26

novice or the experience because I don't think

24:28

most people are familiar. With

24:30

it.

24:31

Well, once again, it's face upon

24:34

the premises, a fractal geometry. Where

24:36

are you have nested powder issue,

24:39

pattern within the patterns and powder?

24:41

The most basic pattern is just a zigzag

24:43

cut price goes up down and. So

24:46

you can use that as the colonel her

24:48

as the basis for developing

24:52

system that incorporates higher

24:54

and higher levels of detail, or

24:56

I should say. When it comes

24:58

down to the performance of the system

25:01

is really based upon the.

25:03

underlying siri This

25:06

distributions that have said tales although,

25:09

was attractive The design,

25:11

the surround. Then. Correct a wave algorithm

25:14

that's obviously not necessarily

25:17

work for you, you figure it out here are some that's

25:19

what we're doing of the time we were looking at when

25:21

I say. Weights was working with a

25:24

friend of mine, Art von Marburg, she's

25:26

the one who actually came up with the logic

25:28

behind the fact that. Wait out

25:30

where the before we were trying to do was to

25:32

automate the Elliot way. Which

25:35

was popular, it. Then

25:37

we found out that was impossible because

25:39

the lightweight was overturned. Because

25:42

it relies too much on. The

25:44

screw us. The terminator the

25:46

way and search and seizure and,

25:49

came out of that was that simpler Written

25:52

in his youth, the fact: wave algorithm, which

25:54

is probably more like to doubt series, which you

25:56

have series of higher highs in Ireland series

25:59

last. The rise and then those make

26:02

larger pattern of our eyes of Ireland

26:04

was would make larger, better player

26:06

has more lower lot so the. Right

26:09

away, dog or that was essentially. The

26:11

automation out the Dow so

26:14

they provide substrate them for

26:16

determining for you with pitcher and

26:18

she orders and stop US orders songs

26:21

or four different. way rather

26:23

provide destruction That it

26:25

wasn't in itself is just. There's

26:27

this. The structure that gave

26:29

you various options as to where

26:32

it actually question threads.

26:34

Your timeframe. Week

26:37

we bars. My

26:39

first system was daylight. After

26:42

few years as active or of his the markets

26:44

or what, but it became less effective when

26:47

I got into the spring, they

26:49

try to work out loud and all that my first

26:51

idea. This to trade short

26:54

term system, the direction of a long term system.

26:57

There's reward for membership while I

26:59

discovered was that am as was a stray

27:01

the long term budget. The words,

27:03

instead of taking this, is out of the train,

27:06

try to get this mess with the trend as possible. Well,

27:09

obviously, that exposes you to

27:11

bit more risk, with the risk is mitigated

27:14

by just trading. The

27:16

number of market citrate about forty

27:18

different methods. The easier to

27:20

manage there was something that lazy

27:23

him was easier to trade off the

27:25

weekly charts. The answer to

27:27

that seem to be more. In

27:29

turn, with the actual market fundamentals,

27:32

because after all. Whatever we do

27:34

and small, this is Roy based upon. The

27:36

cash markets I think of myself

27:39

as being a fundamental traitor

27:41

betrays the fundamentals chang that. There's

27:43

I believe in the fundamentals. That

27:46

don't trade. Directly

27:48

based on those trade on the idea is

27:50

when the pricing copper goes

27:52

up people start digging. new

27:55

minds and so forth and then

27:57

you get over supply and son suffered

27:59

see These cycles the have

28:01

to do with protect her from artists, the

28:04

sort of business cycle,

28:06

time, size four years or something

28:08

else if you're trading out.

28:11

The Cervix damage your trading longer

28:13

term your, more in tune

28:15

with those longer term cycles This

28:18

is, see where am, the dog. There

28:20

was probably a matter of convenience, but just for

28:22

the matter of it seem to match the market

28:24

better and avoid lot of

28:27

noise.

28:28

There is no doubt that what you've just said should

28:30

resonate with people. That

28:33

I'm about to describe, but. I see

28:35

so much communication so many people.

28:38

That. Will say I'll ask

28:40

them about their strategy in their time frame.

28:43

There's often they'll say oh motrin following

28:45

traitor, and I've learned to say

28:47

they might be defining it differently than maybe am

28:50

and I'll see what's your time frame. You're

28:52

the favorite time frame that hear in the last couple

28:55

years is still tell me that are trembling

28:57

trader they tell me their time frame is

28:59

five minutes.

29:00

They're living in a different universe I have

29:02

a good friend his eyes itchy trigger that.

29:05

has nothing to do with There are different

29:07

business, I know what they do or know

29:09

enough about what they do. The

29:11

realize that the dynamics

29:14

the Siri the behavior of

29:16

the market saw that as much. The

29:19

long term.

29:20

I would think that if people and you can tell me

29:22

if you agree or disagree. That if people

29:24

want to be inspired by. You

29:27

and look to the high frequency traders met

29:30

a gentleman over in Singapore couple years ago, Chemise

29:32

Shops is high frequency shop,

29:35

it sure seems like if people want to take stab

29:37

at trading, go down path. The

29:40

trying to emulate your past.

29:43

Makes lot more sense than to try to emulate

29:45

the high frequency path. But

29:47

if you look at the people that have been around for long

29:49

time.

29:50

They've all gravitated towards longer

29:52

term trade, it for us to say, most

29:54

of the part of it is that high frequency

29:57

trading it's really a hard day. There

29:59

are. That. Many people were actually successful

30:02

our when that started out, according

30:04

to my friend who's been in since

30:06

the beginning, when started out, it was pretty

30:08

easy because nobody else you. Say it

30:10

was just for the same as when I started out

30:13

as systems to new really an advantage

30:15

over the average shredder to, as you just have

30:17

a technology that. Was have been

30:19

widely deployed. Apparently, the

30:22

high frequency trading business is a really

30:24

tough business is denser for most

30:26

people sex we're doing and are

30:28

like market makers than they are traitors.

30:31

My opinion is virus thinking about getting

30:33

into business these days. The

30:36

frequency trading, the last place at work.

30:38

There must be something that when people first

30:41

come into this world there must be some.

30:44

I. Don't know if it's information flow or social

30:46

media or gut feel why people

30:48

think this is short term stuff with somehow

30:50

or another be the direction to go in

30:52

unlike you. I think five minutes and I'm

30:54

like, "What am doing I'm going to be like, glued

30:57

to the screen on to be stress is nothing I'd want to

30:59

do, that's A. Good point, for

31:01

instance.

31:02

One of the stairs were popular when I was in

31:04

my formative years was beat

31:06

the dealer absorbed spot, yeah.

31:09

thought about them because that was obviously

31:11

you're trading system and so forth,

31:14

and thought what wanted it, want to sit the Scotus,

31:16

the say no way, an all nighter and the stuff

31:18

not really well, gravitated

31:20

to just naturally gravitate towards.

31:23

We're methodology is that required

31:25

least amount of work. The most

31:28

amount of state. The say,

31:30

as if you're trading short term, you, of

31:32

course, this is different now, but when I was thinking

31:34

about these things. Commission rates

31:36

were just. Unbelievable, the

31:39

sky high hundred dollars. Round

31:41

certain type of. This footage

31:43

cross the cross you are paying

31:45

for slippage was really high. There

31:48

there were a lot of sexual things in

31:50

markets that mitigate towards your

31:52

trading longer term, there's just too

31:54

costly the church for. Days

31:57

it's pay for order flow and allowed

31:59

such better for. But nevertheless,

32:01

is still really haven't had to

32:04

deal with the noise. This is

32:06

funeral today because of him again, it requires lot

32:08

of attention. That's it.

32:11

Computer power to be next to the exchange

32:13

allowances. Another world

32:16

is literally. Another world from

32:18

the world I live. Let me keep you

32:20

at. Some of this.

32:22

Personal Psychology make

32:24

up for a moment I've seen you talk about

32:27

this. The avoiding

32:29

of group, thank you. That you

32:31

have not. Really been

32:34

you've already talked about the surfing and very.

32:36

different lifestyle but you have not been the guy

32:39

They wanted to. Be

32:42

New York City or Chicago. With

32:45

all of the quotes players

32:47

going down that particular direction

32:50

obviously you figured out way to do it your way

32:52

and it's worked really well. Why did you

32:54

instinctively know that you?

32:57

Wanted to avoid the group, think that you didn't

32:59

want to hear from whatever

33:01

broker. All the time

33:03

or whatever other trader

33:06

and, you know, you didn't want to be immersed in

33:08

that. It was well known then that ninety

33:10

five. That are some. Related?

33:13

The percentage of traders last month.

33:15

The idea that if you're doing what the

33:17

ninety five percent still has the trust

33:20

me see that gonna be, successful

33:22

so one of the things it's was important.

33:25

to try to insulate yourself from that so

33:27

that you weren't sucked into that logic

33:29

When you read the news and the paper

33:31

and Martinez, whatever? It's

33:34

always. Out of date, so and

33:36

said. Or frequency you in

33:38

it for another way as just not informative

33:40

but off to? avoid that

33:42

insults makes sense as the state

33:45

waiting to soothe the same sort of thing

33:47

i didn't wanna be sore trader world

33:49

Coming in every day and yelling and screaming

33:52

at everybody wanted to live a more

33:54

relaxed sliced up.

33:55

Were you the first C. T. A. One

33:57

of the first seed years?

34:00

The first there was a groups that centered

34:02

around to multi core police cars.

34:05

It was sort of independent, really followed

34:07

chance, Danson Slade, I think. Then

34:09

we are the group in San Francisco that

34:11

was more loosely, we didn't really

34:14

communicate that much, but there were. Then

34:16

for open sewer getting into the business,

34:18

so was in the business before

34:21

it was regulated by the

34:23

cftc before there was it,

34:25

is it? There was the first

34:27

in I was in the first group but most.

34:30

of the people the list the people that i was

34:32

aware Really same

34:35

across the send depends. The oh

34:37

you're from the sky it's doing this it's on so forth

34:40

I was in the founding group who

34:42

think by. and large police and

34:44

the west has just made

34:47

independent scrubbers Following

34:49

in. Probably somewhat similar,

34:51

there was a lot of people who. In

34:54

the aerospace industry about mathematical

34:56

backgrounds and so, for that,

34:58

appealed and appeal the them, it's

35:01

hard to say that it was in the air. Or

35:03

decide who was first. You're

35:05

right there are. I guess we should have access to

35:07

the beginning, but.

35:09

When you first and I'm going

35:11

to go back in time before this and a second, but

35:13

when you first. Really

35:15

wrapped your arms around. The

35:17

idea of trend following you had

35:20

your first system. You. knew

35:22

that Fall K I've got a chance to do

35:24

what I want for my whole life, Lysol

35:26

wise, what does that ceiling me must

35:29

have been a nice feeling to? Go because what

35:31

if you make enough money doing this pretty quick,

35:33

you can do the math better than anybody

35:36

you could immediately spreadsheet your life that ago

35:38

I got enough money. To do what want to do for

35:40

the rest from a full effect.

35:42

In. "Fact, I wasn't really an important thing to me,

35:44

the most important thing for me with scissors,

35:47

to be able to support myself without

35:49

work and how working too hard", and

35:51

said. Provide the time for me

35:53

to live the life that one that lives,

35:55

which is a surfing lies and that license.

35:58

Intellectual freedom. So I really

36:00

wasn't focused on. The

36:03

money it because don't, just.

36:06

There are about as much. Probably

36:08

still returns. was more interested

36:10

in maximizing my leisure than was

36:12

maximizing in.

36:14

I. Love Story: Let me take you back even

36:17

to further a foundational thoughts

36:19

and I'll set it up this way I had

36:21

someone on the show a while back I think

36:23

she's. At Berkeley, actually a psychologist,

36:26

Vince else and Gopnik, she's written

36:28

about something called "Basie and babies

36:31

the idea that babies, when they learn,

36:33

they see one thing and they follow it"

36:36

And they follow it, and if it keeps going good at, it keeps

36:38

feeling good status to go in that direction.

36:40

I know you're early background,

36:42

a kind of basie and decision, Siri

36:44

thinking when you contrast that

36:46

because I did not learn this formally in school

36:49

but. When one starts to understand

36:51

the spacey and thinking it. makes

36:53

so much perfect sense

36:54

The a business decision three that I took

36:57

was a technical and sophisticated.

37:00

methodology There really

37:03

has not found white application

37:05

was not in business. That you're

37:07

right, it's more of way of just looking at

37:09

the world's are looking at home builders

37:11

her, so I think that's been a

37:14

thread it's men with me throughout my

37:16

life since I was convinced early on the

37:18

probability was a customer logical

37:21

now ontological. The

37:23

nets Vincent's for you.

37:26

Follow Golden but once again

37:28

the Salt really related trading know

37:31

what I'm thinking about and. turns

37:33

to trade it The parallel interests

37:35

life had, I suppose. In

37:37

you're trading. Were you always

37:39

have the mind set?

37:41

The system that you had the approach

37:43

you had to frack to wave algorithm. Always

37:46

from the beginning that this would be applied.

37:49

The uniformly across markets.

37:51

Yeah, my original system was

37:53

not fret away, but by

37:55

the same token involved the trend lines

37:57

in their support resistance, the basic.

38:00

The reason the gay parents or

38:02

six the idea of a big universal?

38:05

Came from the fractal

38:07

way back with because there was something that

38:10

there was way of decomposing data

38:12

and that applied to.

38:15

The any data store? I replied at

38:17

other markets than that, India

38:19

and Japan is like, out of

38:21

the dives, traded those markets, but just

38:23

tested, and yeah, pretty much works

38:26

on average. Obviously works better

38:28

on some text and others just because the

38:30

markets have. different histories

38:33

The the fewer to give me a market,

38:35

say. Would you trade is without

38:37

testing or and isn't it's yeah? The

38:40

same system half ago I'd

38:42

have confidence that it would work the

38:44

way it has for the most.

38:46

When you're having a good year know

38:49

steep drawdown. And you're making

38:51

lot of money like two thousand A.

38:53

This is another year we're losing a lot

38:55

of money, perhaps speak to the emotions

38:58

you're feeling. Given those

39:00

different states of.

39:02

The success of your system or the lack of

39:05

success I used the phrase earlier,

39:07

even Keeled didn't like that, will necessarily,

39:09

but do you feel the same during

39:11

these periods or it is or something difference

39:13

internally? It's hard to

39:15

totally him and slights the soft and.

39:18

Some, he said, "I feel more comfortable

39:20

and down markets and I don't have much"

39:22

The markets were making money.

39:25

Just to clarify, you feel better when you're

39:27

losing money than making money.

39:29

There are you have an idea of where

39:31

that's going to go and how that's

39:33

going to end, whereas when I'm making

39:35

money, the skies limits to Sir, going

39:37

to mix a little bit of money or lot of money or whatever.

39:40

The much more barrier. I should say.

39:43

Maybe the uncertainty is greater. When

39:46

you're making money, but it is when you're losing money,

39:48

so in the sense that you're mostly reacting

39:51

to uncertain, but then it's

39:53

sometimes a bit more comfortable just

39:55

when you're losing money because you're being

39:58

what saw the beach think. Around

40:00

by traits that are you getting

40:02

in and out in development? The February

40:04

side it. Then the thing that

40:06

it tries patients because. Most

40:08

the time the markets or draw that. The

40:11

only as relatively small fracture

40:13

time or the. Making these

40:16

runs where you're making loud one.

40:18

If I'm thinking about your other peers

40:21

and you've come at this from what I've seen

40:23

enough talked to a lot of your peers many.

40:25

the ones that have been around since you started

40:28

but you kind of this so difference Even

40:31

though you've come at this is very different way when

40:33

you look at the correlation, performance

40:36

other seats yeas compared you have or types

40:38

have you been pretty tightly correlated.

40:41

If you say that micro sentiments

40:43

to be used as an index and city

40:45

a performance and of course it's ten.

40:47

following performance We don't make

40:49

managers were smart, we make money that as.

40:52

The markets give us as opportunities. Anyone

40:55

who has the discipline, the follow assist. The

40:58

course, not all systems are gonna work there, something

41:00

that I have never quite figured

41:02

out. What makes a system better or

41:05

worse than another sister Bisects certainly

41:07

the people around for long time at home

41:09

than on the same time same and the same

41:12

basic, strategy so it's Darwinian

41:15

process weeded out to people

41:17

says it's. most money that's

41:19

and many suitors isn't from falling

41:21

systems and their systems because their

41:23

other methodology is haven't

41:26

survived and competition There

41:28

you have to wonder if most of the money's.

41:31

With people who'd so, he said, are

41:33

following trend falling systems are all

41:35

that who are they taking money from

41:37

and once again that things and to send the

41:39

means that is there are people we're

41:42

basically selling insurance to

41:44

people who. The producers

41:46

or consumers and the product.

41:49

Then there are willing to lock in profits

41:51

or whatever, and so it's come down to

41:53

pretty much of classical. Or redraws

41:55

game or possible were. willing

41:58

to take on wrist and taken The

42:00

risk. Take it off the shoulders

42:02

and. The people who don't like terrorists.

42:05

The to sit there to bit shares

42:07

of cancer, long of listener process, and

42:09

was it it's pretty much stabilized out? When

42:12

I first started.

42:14

Digging through so to speak in

42:16

investigating everything I could find on Trent following

42:19

sometime, in the ninety nineties but of course quickly

42:21

led me going back to your early

42:23

career and that whole time frame and finding

42:25

everything could their to. one of the

42:27

most interesting things i used to see those

42:29

when first started getting into this getting couldn't really wrap

42:32

my arms around it Is it sure seemed

42:34

like to me? The best

42:36

traders in the trend following space where.

42:39

One hundred percent systematic but when

42:41

I used to go through all those disclosure documents

42:43

that would pull from the CFP see his.

42:46

research the sky on there was always

42:48

this We're ninety five percent

42:50

systematic, what five per cent discretion?

42:53

"I could never figure this out all these

42:55

trembling traders were saying they were five percent

42:57

or temper", said discretion, and I was

42:59

thinking. Before really wrap

43:01

my arms around, everything is like don't believe

43:04

this, this is marketing to

43:06

appeal to somebody because if

43:08

you're a systematic turn falling traitor you're

43:10

gonna believe in the system. Then all

43:12

these traitors or say they've got five percent discretion.

43:16

That here you are, you're very. What

43:18

about it I'm serious if you've always been

43:20

one hundred percent systematics, the people

43:22

I know and know some of the said people you mention?

43:25

Iran represents the smell of stuff

43:27

of that might be a marketing ploy

43:30

or whatever, but. The number one

43:32

realization. Then the need

43:34

to be systematic and the secret your

43:36

system. The do with it or it.

43:39

The state, this idea of a system for

43:41

little bit longer. Did you play with

43:43

discretion? Ever early

43:45

on or was always.

43:47

That your early training, your

43:49

early researcher, early investigation, it was

43:51

like nope.

43:53

One hundred percent this is it there

43:55

was never a side of your as, like, you

43:57

know, I'm pretty smart guy I have steadily.

44:00

The interesting school length there's gotta

44:02

be some of that they can add some extra

44:04

value. To my sister.

44:07

No, know that ever was interested

44:09

in. I saw a very clearly.

44:11

The idea that ninety five percent of traders

44:14

lose money and son so for. There

44:16

was pretty obvious to me

44:18

that discussion a traitors lost

44:20

money I. had no confidence

44:22

in my own abilities I

44:25

may have tested them out little bit.

44:27

hardly Then instead. I

44:29

have very low confidence. That

44:32

have the psychological makeup or

44:35

just the information. To

44:37

succeed as a discussion or traitor. The

44:40

Warren Buffett path did not intrigue

44:42

you. The Warren Buffett does what

44:44

I did. Really mean

44:46

she's very consistent he sticks

44:49

with his trades for years

44:51

or less when, you actually

44:53

dissect what warren buffett deaths The

44:56

long term trend for. The discretionary

44:59

traitor. Wanting to curators,

45:01

he a so called discretional Twitter

45:04

is that he's gotta have the action. The

45:06

gotta be in the markets. It's psychological

45:09

need, the dissatisfied. The thought

45:11

rational assistant trader is

45:13

one way. The been

45:15

long term trade. The long term

45:17

traitor, this is true in the markets, obviously

45:20

the best way to trade the market suspects are

45:22

many Anna Index Fund and Letter,

45:24

right? There's something very

45:27

early in your life.

45:29

A teenager perhaps is there's something very

45:31

early in your life that you can recall that.

45:34

Helped you. Lay the foundation

45:37

for all the choices that you made. No.

45:41

A US no smoking tobacco

45:43

success but this is,

45:46

the biggest you have to realize the

45:48

where did you approach talking

45:50

about this she does very matter of fact

45:52

that I. think about love it

45:54

We talked about some of the early stages, but beyond

45:57

going to school, getting those early jobs

45:59

and beings. Those to the computers at the

46:01

airforce, the or for stuff, or whatnot was

46:03

there any body along the way?

46:06

Or was it just kind of you and your

46:08

self taught was there anybody along

46:10

the way that was really influential in the development

46:12

of your trading?

46:14

People are influence over people I worked

46:16

with as his think tank. The

46:18

outer borough's unique way of approaching

46:21

modeling where the cutting edge of

46:23

my.

46:24

The year on that bill just search for context,

46:26

what year we would have been talking roughly? This

46:29

should be the late Sixties,

46:31

so I said.

46:32

The late Sixties early Seventies and

46:34

this was a height of the Cold War, and in

46:36

there was lot of money going into

46:38

this new modeling technologies

46:40

than developed by for annoying than and

46:42

people like that. This was the first

46:45

stage of applying these technologies.

46:47

We were doing a lot of really original

46:49

work there lot of it was top secret

46:52

service it but nevertheless

46:54

the month there were series

46:56

of models that developers sort of not

46:58

an infinite number of miles out there there's

47:01

a. limited number of approaches to

47:03

modeling various phenomena

47:06

Most of those models. Came

47:08

into being in that era. The

47:10

read book not too long to the physics

47:13

of was true. The idea

47:15

was to talk about the various

47:17

physics models and mathematical models

47:20

that were being fine. refurbish books

47:22

every one of these models for models that we

47:24

know about that in the Sixties and many

47:27

of them had been resurrected things

47:29

like deep learning right well, this is like

47:31

neural nets. The system, continuation

47:34

of model, it's been around

47:36

for decades. This is true

47:38

as other models so what's. happened

47:41

at this point this that these models have some

47:43

careers So people specialize

47:46

in the various types of mildly. Then

47:49

we were much more ecumenical with

47:51

it. We applied the model, we

47:53

selected the model. The

47:55

fit the tasks. The selected

47:58

the test for tomorrow. recall

48:00

that models shopping and that's what people

48:02

do nowadays they're educated? To

48:05

apply certain kinds of models and then

48:07

they take that model I say okay I'm,

48:09

going apply this for whatever to Florida

48:11

trading ever as opposed to

48:13

say puts the appropriate model. for

48:16

this problem There are things

48:18

that see in terms of magliano web

48:20

the haven't changed and years. We're

48:23

going into probably the second

48:25

hey wintered now. Then

48:28

hide back and age. And everybody

48:30

thought machines are taking over

48:32

zone and so forth. And now

48:35

we're if I'd be I'd. The

48:37

difference in it was, mean, it's different because

48:39

you've got the computing power as

48:41

has blown up so much but data

48:44

is not saw. My name

48:46

is not thought. And it's thinking

48:48

in and see concept, it's

48:50

the kind of creativity human beings.

48:53

The creativity. Computers

48:56

are incapable. That's. The

48:58

be true for the foreseeable future. tend

49:01

to look at lot of this high tech modeling

49:03

and all that mean.

49:04

If you want to see what a I does, it's

49:07

like go online and you get all these

49:09

ads puffing up for something you've already bought.

49:13

Editor, was it sucks?

49:15

What? Of my favorite guests on this show,

49:17

maybe you know of Hammer met him, I don't

49:19

know, but it's a gentleman named Robert Amen

49:22

and he won the Nobel Prize in Game. Theory:

49:24

I was a little petrified to talk to this

49:26

nine year old Israeli game Cirrus,

49:29

what was so great about him was the way he explained

49:31

things and just explaining mutually. assured

49:34

destruction he's like look we had to

49:36

have the bombers up there ready to go for forty

49:38

years street that's what peace.

49:41

when i was like paul moments where you just like wow

49:43

you know he took all the math

49:45

that he has his head that the average person

49:47

can't understand you probably can't and

49:50

he just simplified it in a way where

49:52

you're like oh okay That makes sense.

49:55

That's right, we were doing very sophisticated

49:58

modeling, but and this at the center.

50:00

We understood that in an actual

50:02

dix, you exchange or whatever must

50:05

or stuff would work. If

50:07

you're. just a chaos you have to

50:09

sort of keep up with that game Because

50:12

the other side was keeping up the game and then

50:14

the get the point you didn't know who was on first.

50:17

There was princely my understanding also

50:20

the. certain The arena. Situation

50:23

where you had to do it and what looked

50:25

like something that was counterproductive

50:28

say to the public was actually necessary.

50:31

In terms of the situation and thought. One

50:33

of the.

50:34

Favorite topics you know in your

50:36

industry and the trend following industry

50:39

one, of the favorite topics of the media About

50:42

every five years. "Friend

50:45

Following Is Dead,

50:47

It's Gone, It's Over

50:49

There All Losing Money, It's Never

50:51

Going To Work Again" And then

50:54

something happens. This.

50:57

This is a pretty repeatable patterns

50:59

you've been at this for decades,

51:02

so much wisdom, so much confidence I'm

51:04

not saying cockiness all but the coffin,

51:06

as you see with the landscape. Looks like

51:09

if you have to look ahead another I

51:11

mean of course markets could change and

51:13

all this anatomy and we got bitcoin coming

51:15

online out all the stuff but.

51:17

people are people Given all your

51:19

decades of wisdom so far, how do you

51:22

see a strategy of trend following unfolding

51:24

for the next fifty years?

51:26

The authors and first the particulars,

51:28

I suppose he me what markets or trade

51:30

or perhaps. They don't know. Yeah

51:33

mean obviously there's gonna be new

51:35

markets come into play an old markets

51:37

are gonna become inactive and that sort of said

51:39

I. sense a basic trend following strategy

51:42

relies on some pretty

51:44

fundamental characteristics of human

51:46

psychology and of economics. As

51:48

long as they're a markets, there will

51:51

be. The following strategies

51:53

and I checked the same underlying. Mechanisms

51:56

that cause those to be viable. The

51:58

episodes. My current. I've

52:00

been training for over thirty years now. The

52:03

been virtually unchanged from outside much

52:05

tweeted a little bit here and there but the.

52:08

point The just keeps working

52:10

in the reason it works is not because

52:12

the system itself it's because of

52:14

the environment. The just

52:17

summer economic sphere, I mean, just

52:19

look at what's happening right now, it's oil

52:21

markets going on. Hello volatile

52:23

in various markets don't I'm,

52:25

is pretty sweet but i looked at the markets magic

52:28

behavior and i'll say anything that anything didn't

52:30

see fifty years ago In

52:32

fact, I've seen markets like sugar

52:34

and photo is like out to go

52:36

bananas. They thought we'd

52:38

go up the limit. The weeks

52:40

and row and into down the one two etc

52:43

things. that are really would be astonishing

52:46

in today's markets were not so songs

52:48

and say back in the seventies That

52:50

by and large market super, a pretty much

52:52

the same as they always have. If

52:54

you had to look ahead.

52:56

And you say, "Well gosh, you know there's gonna be trend falling strategies

52:59

mother, my be changes on the margins.

53:02

You also see something like the. forty

53:04

percent winners, sixty percent losers,

53:07

that type of. Philosophical

53:09

foundation will still be a part of trend

53:11

following to because we don't have the ability

53:14

to predict what's gonna be the next

53:16

big trend. To some general

53:18

parameter slideshow.

53:20

That allowed people have discovered and there will

53:22

continue to present as a sort of the

53:24

sweet spot in the markets.

53:27

as it were The forces of the

53:29

markets are going to extract.

53:31

Maximum pay. The Raiders

53:34

and a strategy that capitalizes

53:36

on that pain. There is going to

53:39

continue to make money. The words expect

53:41

psychology. That. "Most

53:44

people are wired to do the wrong", said. They're

53:47

trading the markets. The program

53:49

said. Are you ever going to retire? I

53:52

retired, I've pretty much retired now.

53:54

The used to trading. They're just

53:57

my own proprietary trading. No,

53:59

we're not. The myself out I've withdrawn

54:01

my membership, the and a station

54:03

and safety say so. I'm

54:05

not ready for clients and destroying where. We

54:08

ever stop that? Oh boy, I'm

54:11

going to trust them to the even that even

54:13

what I'm doing requires to I say

54:15

three days on a daily basis. There

54:18

must be party that loves it, those still. less

54:20

and less so", he said. The got enough

54:22

money, the sassoon put it in. They

54:25

say an index fund and.

54:27

Forget! About will listen, I've taken

54:29

you all kinds of territory we've got more

54:31

than enough to do a chapter here and I can

54:33

always still on the blanks a little bit

54:36

here. And there was some great articles about usurps,

54:39

appreciate you, give me some flavor, and

54:41

I knew consciously did not want to take

54:43

you on a linear path I wanted

54:45

to. Just cut a touch on all kinds

54:47

of stuff.

54:48

We appreciate out I was sort of

54:50

apprehensive about having the go to tell my

54:52

story once again.

54:54

So forth I did good of not foresee

54:56

the same story of Missouri this

54:58

much more than thought I'll bet

55:00

I'll take that will listen again

55:03

of kept you have thank you for coming on. They

55:05

are.

55:11

I see a time when those weight will

55:13

understand how to make money

55:16

up down and surprise more

55:20

whether, new traitor were experienced, college

55:23

student or financial, advisor protecting

55:26

against the crash we're just trying

55:28

to make lot. of money turn

55:30

pollen offers everyone enhancer

55:33

in on

55:35

If you get started immediately send

55:37

me any more multiple covell

55:40

the I, will send

55:42

you away from fallen steps to take

55:44

along with my free video, but

55:47

if you want to buy and hold trust

55:49

the government interests. lustrous this

55:52

is axes