0:06

This is trend following radio. Where

0:08

great thinking comes alive. Nobel

0:11

Prize winners, legendary traders,

0:14

best selling authors, and the pros that

0:16

know what drive us

0:18

irrational human beings. I

0:21

am your host, Michael Covel, not

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filtered. Raw, honest.

0:27

That's my passion.

0:34

I have a new book coming out in February,

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February twenty twenty three,

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trend following Masters Volume one,

0:42

subtitle trading conversations. Of

0:45

course, inspired by Market Wizards

0:48

and several other authors in

0:50

the eighties and nineties that did some interview

0:53

books. I have two coming

0:55

this year. In fact, volume one and volume two. Volume

0:57

one is more trading conversations Volume

1:00

two is more trading psychology conversations.

1:03

But you can order that first one right

1:05

now on Amazon. And

1:07

I posted a picture of it. The publisher

1:10

was kind enough to send me a bunch of early copies,

1:13

maybe twenty books. And I posted

1:15

that on my social media and I saw one comment

1:17

in particular that came through Somebody,

1:20

I don't know this person. I'm not trying

1:22

to pick on them personally, but I

1:24

am picking on their thought process

1:26

in a rather big way. But

1:28

this individual posted in response to

1:30

just my picture of my new book,

1:33

quote, it's been hard to find

1:35

strong trends. End quote, I

1:38

replied, twenty twenty two was

1:40

one of the best trend following years in

1:42

twenty five years. Get

1:44

real. Now, I don't necessarily

1:47

know what this person knows. I really don't

1:49

know what they know at all. But I've

1:51

seen this kind of writing a

1:54

lot over the years. And

1:56

generally, what it means, generally,

1:58

there's gonna be outliers here. So if

2:00

this particular person gets their panties

2:02

in a ruffle because they made

2:05

one comment and I ripped this shit out of them

2:07

and I was wrong. I really don't

2:09

care because I've

2:11

seen this attitude for

2:13

twenty years. And when you

2:15

see a comment like this, you pretty much know

2:18

This person has no fucking idea what Trent

2:20

following it is. Not a

2:22

fucking clue. when

2:24

you see, that we've just

2:26

had this mega year in twenty

2:28

twenty two and less than a month

2:31

later after all that mega

2:33

twenty twenty two performance. This

2:35

person and there's probably many of you

2:37

out there like this person says

2:40

you can't find strong trends

2:42

Well, it kinda means you're oblivious to

2:45

what's happening in the real world. You're

2:47

lost in some kind of online

2:50

world. And don't get me wrong. A lot of

2:52

people are lost in the online world today.

2:54

I mean, seriously lost. Zuckerberg

2:57

doesn't have to create the metaverse. Most people

2:59

have created a metaverse for themselves

3:01

where they sit around and they're tiny whities

3:04

getting fat, masturbating to

3:06

porn, doing all kinds of nonsense. So

3:08

there doesn't need to be a metaverse. They've already created

3:10

it for themselves. And again,

3:12

I'm not implying that this person that

3:14

made this comment as a deviate. They probably

3:16

aren't. They're probably very smart But

3:18

again, they don't know what trend following is.

3:21

At least that's the MO of

3:23

this kind of post. Now

3:25

when you hear the expression strong

3:27

trends, Well, if you have a

3:29

trend following system, the

3:31

system ahead

3:34

and has entries and has

3:36

exits. You're relying on

3:38

the system, you're relying on the logic, whereas

3:40

this person seems to be coming at it from

3:43

a fundamental perspective. Let me

3:45

find a strong trend or

3:48

a predictive technical analysis mindset

3:51

where they're going to truss some

3:53

chart pattern to give them a strong trend.

3:55

Whatever the hell strong trend means,

3:58

to restate it from the top. As

4:00

a trend following trader, there are five issues.

4:03

What's the portfolio of markets

4:05

you're going to track? When are you

4:07

going to enter? When are you going

4:09

to exit with a loss? When are you

4:11

going to exit with a gain? And

4:13

perhaps most importantly, how

4:16

much will you bet on each trade?

4:18

Now when you see those five issues

4:20

on the table, you know you have a serious

4:22

conversation with a serious

4:24

individual to talk about trend following.

4:27

When somebody says they can't

4:29

find strong trends, it's a

4:31

mental masturbation. What does

4:33

that mean? Now perhaps this

4:36

person does have all five

4:38

issues taken care of.

4:41

Doubtful. Very doubtful. And

4:43

look I know throughout history you can find

4:45

some super successful trend following traders

4:48

with long track records that might make

4:50

an offhanded comment like

4:52

I can't find strong trends or

4:55

it was a trendless period. That

4:57

might happen for sure, but they

4:59

don't make that comment after

5:02

the performance for twenty twenty

5:04

two. Now you might think I'm beating a dead

5:06

horse here, not really. It's all

5:08

about sharing an insight, sharing

5:11

how to think properly. Because

5:13

the vast majority of people that will

5:15

say it's been hard to find strong trends

5:18

are not trend following traders. So

5:20

if I can't beat the crap out of them

5:22

figuratively and give them

5:24

some insights, give them some ways

5:26

to move forward in a positive way if

5:29

they really want to be a Tremfon trader.

5:31

That motivates me. But let's face

5:33

it. Across whatever issue

5:35

Most people don't want to change.

5:38

Most people want to reach out

5:40

and talk or lament

5:43

or wine or ask

5:46

some question of me that they could find

5:48

out on Google in one

5:50

second. I mean, I love that. I refuse

5:52

to answer the Google questions. I mean, if

5:54

you're sitting out there right now and you're gonna send me

5:56

an email, you're gonna text me, direct

5:58

message, or send something on Twitter, and you're

6:00

gonna ask me a Google question, like,

6:02

what's the weather kind of question? Something

6:04

that you could figure out yourself. Why

6:06

do you think I'd want to respond to you?

6:08

I want to engage with smart people

6:10

that ask smart questions. And I've

6:12

gotta do the same thing too. If I

6:14

have someone on my podcast, I better

6:16

ask smart questions, and they better be happy

6:18

at the end of that hour that I have

6:20

made their time useful, that I've

6:22

asked good questions. If I

6:24

ask shitty questions, who wants to come on

6:26

my podcast? Who wants to talk to me?

6:29

When you run a podcast, and my podcast

6:31

is my diary essentially, by the way. But

6:33

when you run a podcast, you've got

6:35

to be ready. Not ready with

6:37

a list of questions you can ask,

6:39

smart people can see through that. No.

6:42

You have to have the ability to

6:44

almost ask the first question

6:47

when you hear how

6:49

the guest says hello. Or

6:51

how the guest says their first

6:53

word. This is a side tangent

6:55

here, teaching how to do a podcast. But

6:57

when they respond, you have to be

6:59

thinking of Perhaps

7:01

a question you will ask. But

7:03

more importantly, when that

7:05

guest replies, responding

7:08

with something interesting, based

7:11

on what they said. After a

7:13

decade of doing this interview stuff, I could

7:15

definitely teach a class on it. And

7:17

to go back to my friend here, I mean,

7:19

he's a Facebook friend. I don't know him personally.

7:21

But to go back to my friend here, when

7:23

he's talking about it's been hard to find

7:25

strong trends, Experience tells

7:27

me also this person is

7:29

probably drumroll, please,

7:32

trading five minute bars. Fifteen

7:34

minute bars, one hour bars,

7:36

some kind of day trading nonsense.

7:39

I received so many emails from

7:41

people that tell me they are trend following traders,

7:43

For me to ask the follow-up question, to

7:45

get them to explain their strategy, invariably,

7:48

oh, I trade five minute bars

7:50

or fifteen minute bars. Look,

7:52

I will guarantee you that every last person

7:55

who has ever told me, they trade

7:57

five minute bars, fifteen minute bars, one hour

7:59

bars, every last one of those

8:01

people is not actually

8:03

doing it. They're either lying

8:06

or they're failing, but they

8:08

are not doing that. Because the

8:10

people that are doing that are

8:12

not texting me. The people

8:14

that are successfully trading five minute bars

8:16

are not texting Mike Covel to

8:18

tell me they're trading five minute bars. No

8:21

effing way. They're

8:23

already doing it. They are high frequency.

8:26

They have their strategy. The last thing they're

8:28

gonna do is text a long

8:30

term trend following trader, a guy

8:32

like me, and say, oh, by

8:34

the way, I'm a trend following trader trading five

8:36

minute bars. They're not doing that.

8:38

So please, text me.

8:40

Tell me what you're up to. But

8:43

if you tell me you're a day trader, I'm gonna

8:45

rip the hell out of you. And it's a

8:47

loving rip the hell out of you. Meaning, I want

8:49

you to do better. I don't want you to

8:51

suck. I want you to be

8:53

successful. And if you're wasting your

8:55

time pretending that you are

8:57

trading five minute bars,

8:59

Come on. Get the hell out of that

9:01

la la land. Stop doing

9:03

the crack or the bass salsa

9:05

or the mess because you're not

9:08

doing that. I wanna

9:10

take a moment also to talk

9:12

about my books. There's quite a few

9:14

of them. And just to give a brief

9:16

overview of how I see

9:18

these books, First,

9:20

was my trend following book, two

9:22

thousand four, and then there's been

9:24

five editions. So why if

9:26

I had five editions, the most recent

9:28

was four years ago, I think. Why have I had

9:30

five editions of trend following? This

9:32

was the book that taught me how to

9:34

write. And when I first got started, the

9:36

publisher did not know me did believe in

9:38

me, did not expect me to do

9:40

anything, so I didn't get a

9:42

chance to write exactly what I wanted

9:44

with that first edition. But by

9:46

my fifth edition, having become

9:48

a better writer, having talk to a

9:50

lot more people, that fifth

9:52

edition is tight and

9:55

it's big. Two hundred and twenty

9:57

thousand words. I'm ready

9:59

to do an update to it. I'm ready for a

10:01

sixth edition based on trend following

10:03

performance in twenty twenty two.

10:05

But I got a sneaky suspicion that there

10:07

might be an even bigger event around the

10:09

corner that I want to include in

10:11

the sixth edition. And any

10:13

shit. That's not a prediction. It's just

10:15

as somebody who likes to write

10:18

books has to think about.

10:20

My most popular book is my book,

10:22

TurtleTrader. By the way, the

10:24

word complete was an addition by

10:26

the publisher. I did not

10:28

want that. I think they were afraid that

10:30

the book, my book, would be

10:32

competing with other, quote, turtle

10:34

books. I don't think that's the case after

10:36

all these years. I mean, the other individual, the

10:38

other person that wrote a turtle book,

10:40

has been in and out of jail and

10:42

in and out of mental institutions. That's

10:45

not shit talking. That's how bizarre some

10:48

aspects of the turtle story are.

10:50

Because one of the best traders ever

10:52

is Jerry Parker. One of the original

10:54

turtles. And he's got a career, what,

10:56

over forty years now or close to forty

10:58

years. He'll kill me if I get the number wrong,

11:00

but let's just say it's a long time.

11:02

It's three or four decades, four

11:04

decades. And Jerry is

11:06

a brilliantly consistent,

11:10

disciplined guy. Did he

11:12

learn that? Probably? Did he

11:14

learn rules? Absolutely. So

11:16

how could some other turtles go so

11:19

wrong? And Jerry's

11:21

not the only tural trader that

11:23

did well. Other people,

11:25

Liz Chival, who has passed, Paul

11:27

Raybar, Tom Shanks, there have

11:29

been others. Jerry was not the only one.

11:31

Jerry was just the undoubtedly

11:33

most successful and the most

11:35

consistent and the longest

11:37

track record. But some hurdles

11:39

went wrong. The one that I mentioned, the

11:41

author, mug shots

11:43

everywhere. So what was he

11:45

missing that Jerry has?

11:48

I would say that Jerry had the discipline.

11:50

He wanted it. This other

11:52

individual probably didn't

11:54

really care. Made some money,

11:57

was part of the quote experiment, and

11:59

then just became a fuck off. Became

12:01

an idiot. And I think it's

12:03

terribly important for me to differentiate

12:06

because people like Jerry are pretty

12:08

humble. I mean, Jerry Parker's a humble guy.

12:10

And so all this brilliance, all this success

12:12

over here on the Jerry Parker Chestnut

12:14

Capital side and the other Covel's

12:17

Richard Dennis And then you

12:19

have some other numm nuts over here

12:21

that didn't do anything who just piggy

12:23

backed off the fame

12:25

of being a turtle and

12:27

are in out of jail. It's an

12:29

important distinction because some

12:31

people want it. Some

12:34

people don't. But that book has

12:36

been my most popular book, The Turtle Trigger

12:38

book. There's been two editions.

12:40

A new edition came out

12:42

with the paper back years ago. And

12:44

it's still a best seller. I mean, it's an

12:46

amazing title for

12:48

me that people just really

12:50

like it. It's over thousand reviews on

12:52

Amazon. That is so cool. I

12:54

also did a book called Trend Commandments, which was

12:57

kind of a lighter version of Trend

12:59

following. Something you could pick up

13:01

and get into quickly. I need

13:03

to do a new addition of that,

13:05

but you can always find it

13:07

on audible. I also did book with

13:09

Wiley called The Little Book of Trading, which was my

13:11

first interview book. A lot

13:13

of the best trend following traders

13:16

alive were in that book. Except

13:18

it turned into not an interview

13:20

book because the publisher said, let's

13:22

change these interviews into a narrative,

13:24

which I said, okay, I'll

13:26

do that. So the

13:28

little book of trading became a

13:30

narrative of so

13:33

many great trend following traders.

13:35

And one trader in particular in there

13:37

who has not given interviews

13:39

that I know about except

13:41

to me is David

13:43

Druze, who's still active, who's

13:46

still successful as hell.

13:48

Check out David Druze, Check out

13:50

information from David Druse. He was a

13:52

student originally of EtsyKodas, but

13:54

I tell the story. And then I get

13:56

into in the last few years some of

13:58

my newer books All

14:00

from Herriman House out of the UK.

14:03

First, two years ago, trend following

14:05

mindset. A book

14:07

about my podcast, in

14:10

particular, my interviews with Tom

14:12

Bozzo. Tom

14:14

was just Beyond a shadow of a doubt, the

14:16

most popular guest that I was

14:18

seeing. On my show and I

14:20

originally made this mega episode,

14:22

of all of Tom's episodes into

14:25

one like four hour episode and

14:27

people love that. Years later,

14:29

in a little bit of an ode to Tom. I said,

14:31

hey, Tom, can we turn this into a

14:33

book? What do you think? Do you have some things you

14:35

might want to contribute? Some white papers

14:37

and whatnot? He said, sure. That

14:39

became the book trend following mindset.

14:42

There also was a digital book. I don't think it's

14:44

available anymore. Through

14:46

Pearson that came out years ago, only

14:48

digital, and it was all data.

14:50

I called it trend following analytics.

14:53

Because so much of trend following

14:55

the evidence can be

14:57

seen in the numbers. And so

14:59

this was like a six hundred page

15:01

maybe more digital only

15:04

book of various datasets.

15:06

But since I'm not a dataset guy in

15:08

the sense that I'm not doing this for a

15:10

business, it was kinda hard to

15:13

stay motivated to keep that updated

15:15

all the time. There's a lot of people out there that

15:17

do data businesses. But

15:19

finally, to the two books coming out of twenty

15:21

twenty three, trend following Masters,

15:23

volume one, volume two,

15:26

trading conversations and psychology

15:28

conversations. These are

15:30

inspired from my podcast. Some

15:33

great guests that I've been fortunate

15:35

to have since two thousand

15:37

twelve. So please, if you

15:39

liked the podcast, do me a favor. Since

15:41

I don't use any of these things like

15:43

Patreon or any of this stuff, give some of

15:45

my books say, shout out. Give them

15:47

a bye. That's the way to keep me

15:49

motivated. Keep me inspired

15:51

to get on the microphone. And

15:53

of course, last but not least, I do have foreign

15:56

translations. You can find these

15:58

listed all at trend following

16:00

dot com slash

16:03

translations. And if you

16:05

ever want to translate any of

16:07

my books, feel free to drop me an

16:09

email on some of my books, I have

16:11

the rights. And on some of the

16:13

books, the publishers have the rights.

16:15

But I think I'm up to like fourteen

16:17

different languages across my books.

16:20

How cool is that? I never

16:22

could have expected that back in two thousand

16:24

four. Fourteen languages?

16:26

I feel forever lucky.

16:29

That so many people like the stuff that

16:31

I produce. And last but not

16:33

least, for those people out there that want

16:35

some severe hand holding,

16:37

some training, some courses, some precise

16:40

systems, please check out trend

16:42

following dot com slash products.

16:44

There you find my standard flagship

16:46

and professional products. I know some of this

16:48

sounds like a sales pitch, but I get these damn

16:50

questions where people wanna know

16:52

what it is that I produce. And

16:54

they want to know some of the differences

16:56

in the content. You're hearing a little

16:58

bit of that description of difference

17:00

from me right now. So as you go

17:02

out there tackling twenty twenty

17:05

three with the idea that you're going to

17:07

find trends Keep

17:09

in mind this conversation. Keep in mind that

17:11

you're not finding trends.

17:13

You're becoming a trend following

17:16

trader. Who to repeat?

17:18

Has five core issues to your

17:20

trading plan. What markets do

17:22

you trade? When do you enter? When

17:24

do you exit with a loss? When you exit

17:26

with a gain and what percentage of your limited

17:29

trading capital and we all have limited trading

17:31

capital, what percentage of your trading capital do

17:33

you bet on each trade? That's

17:35

a trend falling trader. Inside of

17:37

those five issues, you'll find

17:39

your trends. Outside of those

17:41

five issues, if you're talking about finding

17:44

a trend, you're already

17:46

screwed. I

17:50

see a

17:52

time when those awake will

17:54

understand hand, how to make money

17:57

up, down, and surprise markets.

17:59

Whether a new trader

18:02

or experienced college student

18:04

or financial advisor.

18:06

Protecting against a crash or just trying

18:08

to make a lot of money. Trendfiling

18:11

offers everyone an answer

18:13

and uncertain times. To

18:16

get started immediately, send me

18:18

an email, michaelcovell dot

18:21

com. I will send you the right trend

18:23

following steps to take along with

18:25

my free video. But

18:27

if you want to buy and hold, trust

18:30

the government and trust Wall Street.

18:32

This is absolutely not

18:35

for you.