0:04

On this episode of News World, my guest

0:07

and my very good personal friend is

0:09

Hermann Pershner. He is the founding

0:11

president of the American Foreign Policy

0:14

Council, a nonprofit public

0:16

policy organization headquartered in Washington,

0:19

d c. His travels have

0:21

taken him to most areas of the world, including

0:23

more than sixty five trips to

0:25

the former Soviet Union since nineteen

0:27

eighty nine and more than thirty trips

0:30

to China since nineteen ninety

0:32

four and Kliston. I have had the pleasure

0:34

in honor of traveling with him in

0:37

both Russia and China, and he is remarkably

0:40

knowledgeable, and in particular

0:42

he has been writing consistently for over

0:45

a decade about Putin and

0:47

the nature of Putin's Russia. So I'm

0:49

really pleased to welcome back

0:51

my guest, Herman Parshner. He last

0:53

joined me to talk about his book, which

0:55

is very relevant at this moment post

0:58

putin succession, stability

1:00

in Russia's future, and I wanted to have him

1:02

on again as we mark the second

1:04

anniversary of the war in

1:07

Ukraine.

1:20

Permanent welcome and thank you

1:22

for joining me again in the News World.

1:24

Thanks dude for having me on. It's always

1:26

a great pleasure to be with you well.

1:29

And I have to say I was just citing

1:31

an earlier book of yours about

1:34

great Russian geographic expansion,

1:37

which I think is about twenty

1:39

fourteen, and it's amazing.

1:42

You're very prescient, I think, because

1:44

you go back to the historic nature of Russia

1:47

and you don't seem to be particularly

1:49

swayed by temporary things. So let

1:52

me start there with your

1:54

sense of what Putin really

1:56

wants and what really motivates

1:58

him off.

2:00

The Ford, Minister of Russia was

2:02

asked who Pudens the Great advisors

2:05

are on Ukraine and this war,

2:08

and his answer was Ivan

2:11

the Terrible, Peter the Great

2:13

and Catherine the Great. Why because

2:15

these are the three leaders

2:18

from Moscow that expanded

2:20

the territory of Russia.

2:22

Russia under time of Ivan the

2:24

Terrible was a little city state

2:27

of Moscow and expanded to eleven

2:29

time zones. And they

2:31

measured their greatness by how

2:33

much land they could take. When they're strong, they

2:35

took land. When they needed to recharge

2:38

their batteries or had a temporary defeat,

2:41

they paused side of peace. When they're stronger,

2:43

they'd attacked again. And this

2:45

is his modus Operende thinking

2:47

about grabbing up Kasia

2:50

and Ascesia de facto right

2:52

after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as well

2:54

as Transnistria, thinking invasion

2:57

of Georgia two thousand and eight, the

2:59

first invasion of Ukraine

3:01

twenty fourteen, and now

3:03

back again in twenty twenty two.

3:06

For this intense war that's been going on for

3:08

two years.

3:09

I'm really curious, even though

3:12

Putin was a trained senior

3:15

KGB officer, with all of the

3:18

implications of that, both in terms of psychology

3:21

and ideology and attitude

3:23

towards killing people. In your mind,

3:26

is Putin more a great Russian

3:28

nationalist or somebody

3:30

who aspires for the Soviet Union or

3:33

the two synonymous.

3:35

I think the two are largely synonymous.

3:37

But there's also another factor.

3:40

It's about staying in power. If

3:42

Putin cannot show victory

3:45

however he's able to sell it to the Russian

3:47

people, he's going to be out of power and likely

3:49

debt. I think when he went

3:52

into Crimea in twenty fourteen,

3:55

it was in part because he was having internal

3:57

difficulties, and this was viewed as

3:59

a great victory inside

4:01

of Russia, where it was generally popular.

4:04

I think going into Ukraine this time,

4:07

he thought he would have an easy victory

4:10

and would buy him a more breathing

4:12

room in Moscow. Among some

4:15

people that were less than totally happy.

4:17

The American chair of the Joint Chiefs

4:19

rely said at the time that he

4:21

expected Russian forces to

4:24

be in Kiev in three days. I

4:26

suspect if Putin's generals had a

4:29

similar attitude, this whole war

4:31

must be an enormous shock. At one level.

4:33

Well, I think that's true, this misjudgment

4:36

on the part of the Russians as a result

4:38

of the system that Putin set up. For

4:41

instance, he would say, General Gingrige,

4:44

here is x number one hundreds of

4:46

millions of dollars to refurbish the tanks,

4:48

and you put half in your pocket,

4:51

and you give a nice coat of paint to the tanks

4:53

and send a good report. And that half

4:55

that you put in your pocket starts

4:57

to go up like an amy contract,

5:00

some of it resting with Putin. So

5:02

he was told he had an army that was stronger

5:04

than it was, and he spent a lot of

5:06

money inside of Ukraine for

5:09

people to prepare the welcome.

5:11

So they took the money. They said, mister

5:14

putin the people Ukraine

5:16

love you, be open arms, resistance

5:18

will be token, and give me some more

5:20

money and I'll make it even better. So I

5:23

think he was a victim of that. The

5:25

misjudgment on the American side

5:28

is different and to my mind

5:30

more serious, because I'm told that we

5:32

did not have people in Ukraine

5:35

with a mastery of the Ukrainian

5:38

or Russian languages and therefore

5:40

limited and how widely they

5:42

could talk and circulate within

5:45

Ukraine anybody that traveled

5:47

in Ukraine a lot. And I

5:50

had understood that the Ukrainian

5:52

people were willing to fight, absolutely

5:54

willing to fight. They would tell you, we know a

5:56

lot of us will die, but we won't surrender

5:58

the lives of our children and grandchildren

6:01

to Moscow. And they had

6:03

a plan, and they had javelins

6:05

provided by the way by Donald Trump

6:08

that could stop attack. So I

6:10

think our failure of intelligence

6:13

had to do with problems of

6:15

our intelligence on the ground, our

6:17

technical means intercepts and satellite

6:20

pictures showing Russia preparing

6:22

that turned out to be pretty accurate. But the

6:25

ability of Ukraine to fight

6:27

and the inability of Russia to fight,

6:29

I think was a massive failure

6:32

of intelligence and tied

6:34

in no small part to lack of language capability.

6:37

And it strikes me that had we continued

6:40

Obama's policy of not

6:42

offering lethal weapons,

6:45

that in fact Ukraine would have fled.

6:47

Absolutely. The javelins

6:49

that turned back the tank columns approach

6:51

and Kiev were decisive,

6:53

along with other weaponry that came

6:56

under Trump's role.

6:58

How do you measure where

7:00

we are right now in

7:02

terms of just Ukrainian war to start there?

7:05

Well, I just came back from Ukraine. I

7:07

was there with a bi camera or bipartisan

7:10

staff delegation that American Foreign

7:12

Policy put together. This was

7:14

the tail end of January, and

7:17

at that point they were

7:19

pretty blunt in Kiev that

7:22

they're already rationing ambunition.

7:24

They're not enough arms to go around, and

7:27

if we don't get arms from the US, which

7:29

is the only country that can supply them, we're

7:32

going to start taking unnecessary

7:34

casualties and we're going to begin to lose

7:37

land. And that is happening now

7:39

as we speak. People say the

7:41

Ukrainian army should be bigger.

7:43

It wouldn't be bigger if they had enough weapons

7:46

to give them. But the political

7:48

problem that he is if we institute

7:50

a draft and send people to the front

7:52

with no guns and no ambunition. We

7:54

won't increase our work fighting capability

7:57

and we'd have big bowback is.

8:00

In the next few weeks will pass this

8:02

next transchav AID and open

8:04

up the spigots again. I read one

8:07

piece which you might comment on, that

8:09

the Russian armament system has actually

8:11

been rebuilt so that they

8:13

now produce about thirty tanks a month,

8:17

and the entire current British tank force

8:19

is forty four tanks. It

8:21

strikes me that because Russia is such

8:23

a big country and has so many

8:25

natural resources, people in

8:28

the West tend to underestimate the

8:30

resilience and the capability

8:33

through brute tactics

8:35

to generate power in

8:37

a way that I think Westerners

8:39

couldn't do because in part we lack

8:42

the Russian cultural traditions and

8:44

we don't appreciate that they're willing

8:46

to profoundly shape

8:48

their standard living around

8:50

the needs of the national security system.

8:53

Well, I think, well that's correct, but before

8:55

I get into it, a quick thing about

8:57

AID passing commerce. I think it

8:59

will too, but we don't

9:01

have things in the pipeline, and they're

9:04

expecting a very rough March

9:06

in April before adequate

9:09

weapons and ambunition

9:11

reached the front, So we should be prepared

9:14

for that and not surprised if there's bad

9:16

news until weapons get

9:18

and our ambunition gets where it needs

9:21

to go. Yes, or Russia

9:23

is building tanks, but the

9:25

Ukrainians are knocking out more than is

9:28

being built every week. They're

9:30

doing it largely with drones, which are

9:32

reshaping the nature of war,

9:35

and not just with tanks. One

9:37

third of the Russian's mighty Black

9:39

sea fleet has been wiped out by

9:41

sea drones. If this continues,

9:44

they're going to have very

9:46

difficult time resupplying

9:48

the troops and occupied south

9:50

of Ukraine, as well as in Crimea

9:53

proper they are refurbishing

9:56

tanks from World War Two,

9:58

but some of them are subspadged shape. They're

10:00

towed to the front and used basically as

10:03

artillery, and this is one of the

10:05

reasons I have a minority opinion

10:07

that time favors Ukraine.

10:10

If they're properly armed, there

10:12

will begin to be an internal blowback

10:15

inside of Russia. Putin survives

10:17

by saying we can outlast the West,

10:20

and there's a horrible cost, but as

10:22

long as we're able to take ground,

10:25

we'll rest and we'll take more. Because everybody

10:28

understands the US and the West

10:30

can't stay the course. They don't have the stomach

10:33

to compete with us. We'll just be tougher. But

10:36

if Ukraine has the weapons, takes

10:38

back some land fights

10:40

to stalemate, degrades the

10:42

capability of Russia to produce

10:45

and to transport weapons, it

10:48

may be a time for reevaluation

10:50

by the Moscow elite, who privately

10:52

have turned against Putin not acting

10:55

now. They're all afraid to stick their head up, but

10:57

there'll come a time where it tips.

10:59

A couple things that came up. One is I saw

11:01

a piece last week that the F sixteens

11:03

are now beginning to go operational

11:07

and that they really are a game changer in

11:10

terms of Ukrainian capabilities. I

11:12

mean, is that your assessment.

11:14

I'm not sure how soon they'll be flying. My

11:16

best guess is to have significant numbers.

11:18

Will be in the summer. But right now

11:20

I saw statistics over the last week,

11:23

and Russia's flying maybe

11:25

one hundred and ten twenty shorties

11:27

a day, Ukraine eight or

11:30

ten. So the sort

11:32

ratio is ten to one in favor of Russia.

11:35

If that's changed because the F sixteen's

11:38

it'll make a big difference.

11:39

The other thing I'd say those fascinating is

11:42

probably not the title wrong, but the

11:44

bridge that connects Crimea.

11:47

It's a kursed bridge. Ukraine

11:49

has announced it has a capable ability

11:51

to take it out at a time and place

11:54

of its choosing. My guess

11:56

is that will be when they further degrade

11:59

the naval cape ability, for instance

12:01

in the as of Sea using

12:03

landing craft to bring weapons

12:06

across the ASFC and being

12:08

used in Black Sea as well. And

12:11

there may be as few and as of C as

12:14

two operational landing

12:16

ships now and they're afraid to use

12:19

them. They're trying to do it undercover. If

12:21

ukrainex a few

12:23

more of those out, I think they'll go after the curse

12:25

bridge, and then Russia has a really

12:28

big problem of how they maintain a

12:30

supply chain into Crimea and

12:32

into the southern part of

12:35

Ukraine proper.

12:53

At the time that Putin took over Crimea,

12:57

part of the armament was the Krushoffer made a

12:59

mistake and giving chunks of Russian

13:02

land to Ukraine. Partially, I

13:04

think the argument was that his wife was Ukrainian,

13:06

but at the time there was also in Crimea

13:10

was overwhelmingly Russian. But I'm

13:12

curious, having now

13:14

experienced the Russian state for the last

13:17

decade, how the

13:19

sentiment of the people in Crimea

13:22

would be today and whether or not in

13:24

fact Putin could win a referendum.

13:27

Well, I've been in Crimea I

13:29

think three times before Russia

13:31

took over in twenty fourteen, and

13:35

I came in knowledgeable in

13:37

the referendums that had been held At

13:40

the time of independence. Ukraine

13:42

voted about ninety percent of the

13:44

country for independence, and

13:46

there was in eastern Ukraine in

13:49

the eighties, so overwhelmingly Crimea

13:52

was close I think it was fifty four

13:54

forty six or some number close

13:56

to that. So there was pro Russian

13:59

set them there. It primarily

14:02

was retired military people around Cevestopol

14:05

and some of the lead that have vacation there.

14:08

That was the retirement home. It would be

14:10

the Sarasota Palm Beach

14:12

for the Soviet Union. When

14:14

I traveled in Crimea, though

14:17

you would find a large

14:19

number of Ukrainians Crimean

14:21

Tartars maybe ten percent of the population,

14:24

they absolutely were pro Ukraine.

14:27

The demographics have shifted

14:29

significantly now in that Ukrainians

14:32

and Tartars have been forced out and put

14:34

in jail, and Russians have

14:36

been moved in to take a

14:38

band under confiscated territory. So

14:41

the demographics have shifted

14:43

under their occupation of Russia since twenty

14:46

fourteen, and I would

14:48

think that maybe such that there may be a

14:50

majority that would be pro Russian

14:53

at this point, though it's hard to tell because

14:55

it hasn't been very pleasant even

14:57

for the ethnic Russians there because

15:00

part of the deo Putin cut when they went in twenty

15:02

fourteen, where the local mafia people

15:05

and he gave them power in exchange for helping

15:07

with the twenty fourteen transition,

15:10

and they've wrote rough shot over a lot of people

15:12

Russian and Ukrainian.

15:13

Which would also fit the degree to

15:15

which Putin really had a kleptocratic.

15:18

State, absolutely clepthocratic.

15:21

And I think that's a little hard for Americans

15:23

to fully understand that, in fact, this

15:26

is a system which survives by fear

15:28

and by corruption.

15:30

Yeah, and you know, they believe

15:33

in taking care of the lead and they don't care about

15:36

the people. Vasislaw Serkov

15:38

who is a longtime top aid

15:41

to Putin, and really if there

15:43

was a putent brains. That's circof.

15:45

He has written about Putinism,

15:48

and part of that is is we have an historical

15:51

destiny to conquer more lands.

15:53

History demands of us, the

15:55

chosen people, to conquer more

15:58

lands. But also he poop

16:00

pause any values

16:02

of economic life for the people.

16:05

The measure of state should be how strong your

16:07

military is, how strong your forces are,

16:09

and if the people have to live poorly

16:12

to give you greatness through militarism,

16:14

so be it. That's the attitude

16:17

at the top.

16:18

Given all that, though, what struck me

16:20

about the invasion

16:22

of Ukraine, which I'm sure Putin

16:25

thought would happen very fast and be over,

16:28

but because it didn't get over in

16:31

a sense strategically, and

16:33

I want to get your reaction to this, but

16:35

it strikes me that the decision

16:38

of Finland and Sweden to join NATO is

16:41

an enormous strategic setback for

16:43

the Russians.

16:44

This operates at two levels. At

16:47

the level you raised in indictment

16:50

against Putin is very strong. Before

16:52

he went in, NATO was smaller,

16:55

less funded, and less unified.

16:58

Before he went Inrussia had

17:00

great influence, even dominance of the

17:02

petroleum and gas markets. In Europe.

17:05

Now that's gone, the political influence

17:07

that went with his gone. The Russian

17:09

army has become weakened enough

17:11

that you can envision them pulling

17:13

out of the war, having not the

17:16

capability to do with civil wars inside

17:18

of Russia. And remember Russia is still

17:20

an empire. You have lots of minorities

17:22

inside of Russia today that would

17:24

like to be independent, people in Chetshny

17:27

and Tartarstan and other places

17:29

most Americans have not heard of. So

17:32

indictment against Putin is

17:34

strong, but he's hanging

17:37

on to this idea that if he

17:39

can outlast the West, if he can

17:41

gain any territory, he can claim

17:43

victory. We've taken twenty

17:45

percent of Ukraine in the

17:47

footsteps of my predecessors,

17:50

will get stronger and then we'll take more. He

17:52

may be able to keep in power doing that.

17:55

What are the implications for the West

17:57

If Putin is seen to be able

17:59

to take territory from

18:01

a peaceful country through nuclear

18:03

intimidation, through the strategic

18:06

use of war crimes, torture,

18:08

rapes, murders, through taking

18:11

kids from Ukrainian

18:13

families and put in them in Russia. If he's

18:15

seen to be successful in doing that, then

18:18

there's no end to it. He will do it again.

18:20

And what's more, it emboldens

18:22

the Hawks in Beijing,

18:24

in Tehran, and in other places

18:27

that are not friends in the United States.

18:30

That's why if you're in Taiwan

18:32

or Vietnam, ra have been recently, or

18:34

South Korea, their national security

18:37

establishment wants RUSSA to lose

18:40

because if they don't lose, they're all

18:42

afraid that their enemies will try

18:44

to do the same thing. If Putin

18:46

can use nuclear blackmail to take territory,

18:49

why can't we.

18:50

If they actually won, in

18:52

the sense of Putin, like Hitler

18:54

in nineteen forty, being able

18:56

to go into Kiev and be

18:59

seen marching over what he

19:01

has conquered, the psychological

19:03

impact I think would be far

19:05

beyond any imagination in the

19:07

West.

19:09

I think Kenny gotten in a key of that. Quickly.

19:12

There would be fighting in Poland of the Baltic

19:14

States.

19:14

Now, assuming

19:31

we can get things through the Congress,

19:34

there's a fairly realistic likelihood we'll

19:36

have a new and dramatically

19:38

tougher president in January. And

19:40

it's clear that the Europeans are

19:42

gradually steadily muscling and

19:45

men becoming more engaged. Is

19:47

the goal to actually fight

19:50

back to the status quo three

19:52

years ago with the Russian still in eastern

19:55

Ukraine and Crimea, Or

19:57

is the goal to actually drive them back to

20:01

the Russian border. I mean, what would you say

20:04

strategically the Allies

20:06

should be trying to do.

20:08

We should try to go back to the two thousand

20:10

and one borders, which are the borders

20:13

when the Soviet Union collapse. Can

20:15

that be done? I don't know, but we

20:17

shouldn't give up without trying. And

20:20

the Europeans have caught

20:22

on to the fact that Russian's imperial

20:24

ambitions go beyond Ukraine.

20:26

This is why now I think we're maybe

20:29

number fifteen in terms of the

20:31

percent of GMP we give to Ukraine.

20:34

It's why total aid from Europe now is

20:37

larger than from the United States. It's

20:39

why Finland and Sweden have join

20:41

NATO. They're scared about further

20:44

Russian ambitions, so it's

20:46

costly for us to help, but be far

20:48

more costly if we don't stop Russian nout.

20:51

I've been looking for years at

20:53

Kaliningrad. Here you have this enclave

20:56

between Poland and Lithuania, which

20:59

I think putin recently. Actually visited

21:01

there and they clearly have been putting

21:04

very sophisticated weapons. They have nuclear weapons

21:06

there, And it strikes me that he clearly,

21:09

if he could win in Ukraine, he

21:11

probably would pivot first to the three Baltic

21:14

States.

21:15

Well, that's right, he does not have land

21:18

access to Clintingrad now, but

21:20

the thought was that he would go through part

21:22

of Poland and maybe the Baltic

21:25

States as well to give

21:27

him land access. You know, this

21:29

was Dan sick in World War Two, so

21:31

he watched some equivalent of

21:34

the Danstick cornder.

21:35

That whole nocean. Plus you can imagine

21:38

that the Russian speaking parts of

21:41

Estonia, Latfia, Lithuania will suddenly

21:44

decide that they're being mistreated,

21:46

precisely like the Sedate and Germans

21:49

in nineteen thirty seven thirty eight. I mean, this

21:52

is an old playbook.

21:53

It's the battle Plant. Absolutely.

21:55

How do we convince sort

21:58

of skeptical conservatives

22:01

that our interest in Putin

22:03

being defeated is enormous and

22:07

that secondary considerations

22:09

can't allow him to win.

22:12

I think we need to improve the database

22:15

of people that don't understand this on the

22:17

right, and that's going to happen

22:19

to large measure by travel

22:22

to the extent that people can go more than a

22:24

two hour photo op in Kiev,

22:27

but to be there for at least a few

22:29

days, to talk at different levels, and

22:31

not just in Ukraine, but to

22:34

go in Germany and Poland

22:37

and the Baltic States, which are safer

22:39

and you can stay longer. I think

22:42

the more knowledgeable our conservative

22:45

colleagues are, the better the policy

22:47

will be. I think it's a fact deficit.

22:49

Somebody said to me that there's a proposal now

22:52

in the House that's bipartisan

22:55

that would provide all the defense A but

22:57

not the economic aid, and so

23:00

have several other steps. There's a very serious

23:03

proposal to confiscate, for example,

23:05

all of the Russian assets that

23:07

are outside Russia, which is about three hundred billion

23:09

dollars, and turn it over to Ukraine.

23:12

So then the fact the Russian money would be helping

23:14

fight the Russian attack. But it struck

23:17

me when I talked to somebody who knows

23:19

a great deal about the House, they said

23:21

they thought, if this bill gets to the floor, it

23:23

gets three hundred votes.

23:25

I'm hearing the three hundred vote number in

23:27

the House for aid to Ukraine.

23:30

I don't know about this specific

23:32

bill, But what

23:35

the United States uniquely could do

23:37

is give them weapons. I

23:39

think the dollar amount can be picked up either

23:41

by Europe or through

23:44

confiscation and Russian assets, and

23:46

I'm in favor of both.

23:48

When you're faced with really a two

23:50

front competition Russia on one front, China

23:53

on the other, and North Korean and Iran

23:55

is very real threats in the age

23:57

of nuclear weapons, that we

24:00

have to have defense industrial base that

24:02

is first of all, dramatically more modern.

24:05

The point you made, for example, about

24:07

drones and the remarkable impact

24:09

they're having, and we have to have a big enough

24:12

and a modern enough defense

24:14

industrial base to be able to compete

24:17

both with China and with Russia

24:19

simultaneously while blocking

24:22

Iran and North

24:24

Korea.

24:24

There was a wonderful study done early

24:26

in the Trump administration on

24:29

the weakness of our industrial base that should

24:31

be dusted off and be part of the

24:33

discussion.

24:34

Have you been mildly

24:37

pleased by the degree to which the Europeans

24:39

in fact are shifting as

24:41

they better understand putin.

24:44

Yes, you know, going into Ukraine

24:46

at the end of January, we stopped in Warsaw,

24:49

and in conversations there

24:52

we were told that the polls are

24:54

taking some comfort that the rest of

24:56

Europe is understanding there

24:58

are arguments which been making for years

25:01

about the danger of Russian imperialism.

25:04

The polls privately will say

25:06

that should Ukraine collapse, they're

25:09

going to have to put several hundred thousand people

25:11

on the Polish border to prevent

25:14

a quick land grab by putin

25:16

ahead of a frozen war. So the danger

25:19

is being felt first by the

25:21

countries that are closest to Russia, but

25:24

is being felt by Germany and others as

25:26

well. I think

25:28

the UK understands it pretty well. Was there

25:30

a few months ago?

25:31

Biden announces five hundred additional

25:33

sanctions. I think we began

25:35

the sanctions dance with the invasion

25:38

of Crimea ten years ago. Do these

25:40

things really bite? Do they have an

25:42

effect?

25:43

I think it's a good press release. I think

25:45

it helps marginally. But you can't

25:47

equite sanctions with Hi

25:50

mars. I understand there are almost one thousand

25:52

high mars that were getting ready

25:54

to destroy because they're old.

25:57

But if they were shipped to Ukraine, they were still

26:00

usable for a period of year. Why

26:02

aren't we doing that?

26:04

But that's sort of typically the whole bureaucratic

26:07

way we've approached this thing from day one. We

26:09

have not had an aggressive effort to

26:12

sort through all of our assets and

26:14

put them on airplanes, which frankly

26:16

drives me crazy. The other part of that is,

26:18

it seems to me we have

26:20

to recognize that there are times

26:23

when hard power is the only thing that works. That

26:26

if the other guy has mal once said,

26:28

all power comes out of the end of a rifle, So

26:31

we have to be prepared to win

26:33

that fight, as well as to do

26:35

all these various diplomatic dances. And

26:38

I think that's still very hard, not

26:40

just the American people. The American people probably are psychologically

26:43

more aware of that, but our establishment

26:45

seems amazingly averse

26:48

to dealing with the reality of real power.

26:50

I think the Biden administration has

26:53

been self detoring with regard to Russia.

26:56

We have delayed sending weapons

26:58

six months, eight months. A lot

27:01

of it has been sent, and some creditors certainly

27:03

due for sending those weapons,

27:05

but we don't have a sense of urgency

27:08

and time. A year ago I was talking

27:10

to the National Security Advisor.

27:13

There is and what's the hardest thing you have

27:15

to explain to Americans? It said time

27:18

time. We needed these things

27:20

in time right.

27:22

And this is where Trump is so radically

27:24

different from Biden and the Trump

27:26

has an instinctive sense of

27:30

the importance of decisive movement

27:32

quickly and that you need the

27:34

shock effect of it being very

27:36

fast and often surgical. I

27:38

want to thank you. I'm sure we're

27:40

going to ask you again in the future to

27:43

come back and share again. And knowing you,

27:45

I'm sure you will have been in ten or twelve countries

27:47

by the time we do it. Your commitment

27:50

and frankly, the American Foreign Policy

27:52

Council that you founded and have led do

27:55

an amazing job. I read a lot of your documents.

27:58

You've assembled a brilliant a

28:00

team of younger analysts, and you

28:02

have a great program of taking people

28:04

around the world and trying to get them to

28:06

learn personally. I really appreciate

28:08

you taking the time to help us better

28:11

understand what's at stake and

28:13

what Pudent's strategic threat is to

28:15

the lives of all of us.

28:17

Thank you, Newtics a great being with you,

28:20

and we appreciate your kind words

28:22

very much.

28:26

Thank you to my guest Terman Personner. You

28:28

can learn more about the American Foreign

28:31

Policy Council on our show page

28:33

at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld

28:35

is produced by Gingrish three sixty and iHeartMedia.

28:38

Our executive producer is Guernsey

28:41

Sloan and our researcher is

28:43

Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the

28:45

show was created by Steve Penley.

28:48

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29:11

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