0:04

On this episode of Nuts World. Since Russia

0:07

invaded Ukraine in February twenty twenty

0:09

two, Yaroslav Trofumov has

0:12

spent months at the heart of the conflict, very

0:14

often on its front lines. In his new book,

0:17

Our Enemies Will Vanish the Russian

0:19

Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence,

0:22

he traces the war's decisive moments

0:24

to show how Ukraine and its allies

0:27

have turned the tide against Russia, one

0:29

of the world's great military powers, in

0:31

a modern day battle of David

0:33

and Goliath. Putin had intended

0:36

to conquer an annex Ukraine with a

0:38

vicious blitzkrig redrawing the map

0:40

of Europe in a few short weeks with

0:43

seismic geopolitical consequences.

0:45

But in the face of this existential threat,

0:48

the Ukrainian people fought back, turning

0:50

what looked like certain defeat into a

0:52

great moral victory, even as the territorial

0:55

battle continues to this day. For

0:58

Trufumov, this war is deeply personal.

1:01

He grew up in Kiev and his family has

1:03

lived there for generations. Here

1:05

to talk about his new book, I'm really

1:07

pleased to welcome my guest, Yaroslav

1:09

Trefemov. He is the chief Foreign

1:12

affairs correspondent of the Wall Street

1:14

Journal and was a finalist for

1:16

the Pulitzer Prize and International Reporting

1:18

for two consecutive years.

1:32

Jaroslav, welcome and thank you for joining

1:35

me on newts World.

1:36

Great to be in the show. Thank you.

1:37

You were born in Ukraine and came

1:40

back to write about the Russian invasion in twenty

1:42

twenty two. What was Ukraine

1:44

like when you were growing up?

1:46

Oh, you know, back nime it was the Soviet Union was

1:48

no such thing as an independent Ukraine. The

1:51

current blue and yellow fog of Ukraine was

1:53

outlawed. He would go to prison for even

1:56

drawing it on a piece of paper. You

1:58

know, the language of instruction must causals Russian.

2:01

And you know, the Soviet Union

2:03

was pursuing a very efficient policy of for rassification.

2:06

The reason why half the people in Ukraine

2:09

speak Russian today is because of

2:11

that policy, because their parents or grandparents you

2:13

to speak Ukrainian.

2:15

Was it a happy place? Was it the place you wanted

2:17

to leave or what was your feeling?

2:19

Well, you know it was a place that I left. I left

2:22

it in nineteen ninety before the Suviecunion

2:24

collapsed, and the

2:26

difference between Ukraine today in Ukraine

2:28

then is staggering because

2:30

an entire new society

2:33

was born in those thirty plus

2:35

years, and the generations that have come into

2:37

being in a free, independent Ukraine

2:41

are hugely different from their parents

2:43

and grandparents because they don't

2:45

have that fear that was built

2:47

into the Soviet system. They have the

2:49

creativity which they have shown in this war, and

2:52

they have this desire, the really strong desire to

2:55

remain free. If you look at the history of independent

2:57

Ukraine, out of the six presidents

2:59

it has had on Knew, one was reelected and

3:02

twice the weare uprisings when

3:04

there was an attempt to rig the vote or to basically

3:08

create a more authoritarian system.

3:10

Ukraine has been wrestling with and

3:13

steadily, I think, becoming a freer society

3:16

in a more Western society, which

3:19

may be part of the threat that Putin felt

3:21

that if Ukraine was really successful,

3:24

that the signal that would send to Russians

3:27

who were living in a place that was not successful

3:30

would in fact have endangered his whole regime.

3:33

Because you're so knowledgeable, what

3:35

do you want every American to

3:37

know about Russia's invasion

3:39

of Ukraine.

3:41

Well, thank you so much. I think the

3:43

invasion of Ukraine was the first

3:45

step in put in this plan for

3:48

a much greater rebuilding first

3:50

the Soviet Empire and then rebuilding the influence

3:52

that Soviet Union used to have in

3:55

half of Europe. And they, you know, Putting

3:57

made it clear when he proposed Head

3:59

of THEES He's peace

4:01

offering the rolling back of NATO essentially

4:04

so the patrol of worldly American

4:06

and other Western forces from NATO countries

4:09

what used to be the former Warsaw Pact.

4:12

He clearly sees Ukraine as

4:14

part of Russia. He has written this essay

4:17

six months before the war, very long historical

4:19

essay that is called on the historical

4:21

unity of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples.

4:24

And if he had been able to get away with

4:26

his initial plan of conquering

4:28

and supporting Ukraine, and it would be having

4:31

a war in another European country. Now.

4:32

Probably my sense was that

4:36

if he could have won pretty

4:38

decisively, that Poland

4:40

and Estonia, a

4:42

lot Fia in Lithuania would all have been

4:44

under threat. But I'm curious

4:47

because you know, the American Chairman

4:49

of the Joint Chiefs himself said

4:51

in public and I think in the Senate hearing that

4:54

he thought that the Russians would

4:56

get to Kiev in three days,

4:59

and my hunter that that's what Putin's

5:01

generals were telling him, wasn't

5:04

in that sense. The

5:06

ability of Ukraine

5:09

to slow down and stop the Russian

5:12

offensive sort of a remarkable

5:14

shock to everybody.

5:16

I think Ukraine was and remains

5:18

today an extremely misunderstood country, misunderstood

5:21

by and misappreciated, underappreciated

5:24

by the Russians and by the West until recently.

5:27

And that comes from this lack of understanding

5:30

just how much it has changed in three

5:32

decades of independence. The

5:34

Ukraine that was around in twenty twenty two is

5:36

not the Ukraine that people used to know in the nineties, the

5:39

corrupt, hopeless place of just

5:41

finding its way as a nation. There

5:43

was a sense of purpose, there was a pride,

5:45

there was an experience of fighting the Russians,

5:48

because, let's not forget it, the war began

5:50

in twenty fourteen, not inwenty twenty

5:52

two. Fourteen thousand people died in

5:54

the war in Dunbas in twenty fourteen. At

5:57

the time, the West didn't help Ukraine. The

5:59

West by President Obama

6:01

famously said there is nothing the US can do to

6:04

stop the Russians from controlling Ukraine. Yes,

6:07

puting belief that the Ukrainians will not fight,

6:10

that the will surrender and mass and in a

6:12

matter of days Kiv will be taken over. And

6:15

so died the West into the US government to close

6:17

the embassy in Kiev, pulled out

6:19

the diplomats, and basically gave

6:22

Ukraine a little bit

6:24

of weapons for insurgency, kind of like the Mujahidi

6:26

in Afghanistan, you know, a few boxes

6:28

of javelins, some stingers and good luck.

6:31

So the expectation was that Ukraine is a functioning

6:33

state, which ceased to exist with a new week or two.

6:36

Because I remember at the time that

6:38

the Obama administration sort

6:40

of had an attitude of we'll send you

6:43

meals ready to eat and will

6:45

send you sleeping bags. Well,

6:47

we won't send you any lethal weapons.

6:50

One of the major changes occurred.

6:52

Trump authorized javelins, you

6:55

know, are very effective tank killers,

6:58

and that part of what hit the rush was

7:01

they in fact were really losing equipment

7:03

and losing vehicles, and because

7:06

of a very intelligent

7:08

use of drones and of GPS,

7:11

Ukrainians forces in that

7:13

opening blitzkrig were able

7:15

to just chop the columns up, hit

7:18

the front in the back, leaving everything

7:20

in between isolated. And it

7:22

was an astonishing campaign in

7:24

the initial surge, and I think

7:27

the Russian logistics system was so bad

7:29

that they just kind of fell apart.

7:33

Right, I wouldn't put too much emphasis

7:35

on the javelins. Ukraine only had ninety

7:37

javelins when the war began nine zero against

7:41

thousands of thousands of Russian tanks armored

7:43

vehicles. The British were

7:45

more courageous and they supplied about two thousand

7:48

in law anto net missiles, which

7:50

I did see with my own eyes of being deployed in

7:52

the battlefield. I was in Ukraine since January

7:55

and I wasn't key of when the war began. But

7:57

really the initial fight

8:00

compelling the initial Russian attempt to take

8:02

Yev was mostly carry

8:04

out using old school sovietween

8:06

the weapons, artillery, and

8:09

antier defenses the Ukraine managed to preserve

8:12

and thanks so it was really the

8:15

old Ukrainian army used its vintage ammunition

8:18

and vintage resources that repelled the initial

8:20

Russian drive. Only after that

8:22

did the US and Allies start supplying

8:25

American artillery, multiple

8:27

rocket systems, and everything else that came

8:29

after that, including the sixteens that

8:31

are now win the pipeline.

8:33

To what extent do you

8:36

think the situation really

8:38

dramatically changed because

8:41

the Russian system just broke down? And

8:44

to what extent was it the

8:46

sort of methodical organization of

8:49

the Ukrainian people.

8:50

I think it's both. I think on one hand, the Russians

8:53

clearly weren't prepared for a fight, and

8:55

I remember talking to people around Zelenski

8:58

before the boy began, and you know, the SAI

9:00

director had just flown to Kiev to warn

9:02

them in great detail about the coming

9:04

invasion, and they were really

9:07

disbelieving because they were looking at the number of soldiers

9:09

on the Ukraine's borders. It was fewer

9:12

than two hundred thousand troops. They

9:14

were shaking their heads and saying, how are they going to invade

9:17

the largest country in Europe by landmasks other

9:19

than Russian with such a small army.

9:22

And they were correct in retrospect, because

9:24

Putting's entire war plan was premised

9:27

to the idea that Ukraine

9:29

will just collapse, I will not fight, And

9:31

you know, the troops coming to Kiev were carrying parade

9:33

uniforms for them, and the commander of Ukraine

9:36

Forces, Journals Illusioning, really

9:38

decided to trade territory

9:42

for preservational forces for times.

9:44

So instead of fighting for every village

9:46

on the border, he pulled back the forces and then he

9:48

attacked the Russian supply

9:50

lines that were overstretched and really made

9:52

it impossible within a month of the Russian army

9:54

besieging Kiev to continue the

9:56

siege, and so they had to withdraw Suffric

9:59

treminous losses at the end of March. I

10:01

think what also changed is that Putting

10:04

had this idea that a big Soviet army

10:06

would be finding a small Soviet

10:08

army, in which case the outcome

10:10

would be preordained. But Ukraine, though

10:12

it didn't receive little weapons except

10:15

for huge avelins from the West in

10:17

the eight years since the conflict

10:19

began twenty fourteen, they didn't receive a lot

10:21

of training. So there were British, Canadian

10:24

American instructors training Ukrainian officers

10:26

in native Uktrine in this giant

10:29

camp called Yavodiv on the Polish border,

10:31

and they trained them in the idea of mission command,

10:34

which meant that commanders on

10:36

lower levels had full authority to engage

10:38

the enemy as long as it was within

10:40

the objective set by the Central staff.

10:43

In a conflict where Russia

10:45

was advancing from eleven different directions at the

10:47

same time, this ability

10:49

to delegate this freedom that the Ukrainian commanders

10:52

had it's over really saved Ukraine. And

10:54

this sort of system is only possible in

10:56

a country that is more or less democratic,

11:00

where the army functions and trust, as opposed

11:02

to the Russian army, which really is based on

11:04

fear, fear of superiors, in

11:06

which the bad news don't reported up

11:09

the chain of command for the fear of angering superiors

11:12

and therefore bad decisions keep being made.

11:14

And of course that model was one which

11:16

we had developed for a long period of time, which

11:19

allows us to delegate authority

11:21

down to sergeants and corporals

11:24

that in some armies get stuck up in

11:27

majors and lieutenant colonels. I'm

11:29

curious, so when you mentioned earlier, correctly

11:31

they fighting in the DNBAS that

11:34

actually was the same period as the occupation

11:36

of Crimea. What is your sense

11:39

about whether in the long run

11:42

Crimea is returned to Ukraine or

11:44

Crimea becomes Russian And do you

11:47

see that different than

11:49

the fighting and the Dambas well.

11:52

I mean the conflict in Donbas and Crimea was different

11:54

at the inception because the Ukrainian army

11:56

did not fight for Crimea, putting

11:59

too advantage of Mayhem and

12:01

Kiev change of government, you know, president

12:03

being ousted and Russia, which

12:05

had regular forces in Crimea and just

12:08

seized it, and the Ukrainian soldiers did

12:10

not resist. Ukrainian have

12:13

much of an army either at the time. In Dunbas,

12:15

a few months later, the Ukrainian army tried

12:18

to resist, but by then there was this influx

12:20

of volunteer units, people

12:22

just picking up arms to defend the Ukraine, and

12:25

they were much more successful in Dunbas. And one

12:27

thirdy of Dunbas was in Russian

12:29

hands until the full scale of vision of twenty twenty

12:31

two. In both areas, there's

12:33

been a great demographic change. In Dunbas,

12:36

most of the population has fled. Nobody

12:39

wanted to live into the Russian occupation, so

12:41

people fled to Ukraine. The rest of Ukraine, people

12:43

fled to Europe, people fled to Russia. But there's

12:46

nothing to do. And then he had skill of hunsk it run the gangsters

12:49

every man From eighteen to sixty

12:52

pretty much has been conscripted two years ago and

12:54

sent to die, and there is no economy.

12:57

Cremea has seen an outflow of

12:59

all so hundreds of thousands, maybe

13:01

million people Crimean Tatars,

13:04

Ukrainians others who are lowered Ukraine

13:06

and a huge influx of settlers from mainland

13:09

Russia. Ukraine's goal remains

13:11

to liberate Crimea one day. How realisticant

13:14

is right now? Right now it's Russia that's

13:16

on the offensive an Ukraine's army is

13:18

starved with amminition and has to retreat because

13:20

US military it has been cut off for

13:23

several months now.

13:42

It strikes me that there's a real

13:45

key message though in

13:48

they're well, Ukraine has not tried

13:50

to retake Crimea. They've had

13:52

a brilliant maritime

13:54

campaign in which they have shattered

13:57

the Russian black sea fleet

14:00

way that nobody would have predicted back

14:02

two years ago. I mean, isn't that one of the great

14:04

Ukrainian success stories of this campaign?

14:07

Oh? Absolutely absolutely, And it's also I

14:09

think it's a model of the Turrens that

14:11

Ukraine is trying to do to replicate

14:13

in the air domain. Now, what happened

14:16

is that Ukraine demonstrated

14:18

not just that it's able to take down several

14:21

ships in the Russian Black Sea fleet, including

14:24

the flagship We're walking by dozens

14:26

of ships and strike the headquarters,

14:29

but also demonstrated its ability to strike

14:31

the part of Numberosisk, which is not in Crimea,

14:33

which is in the normal Caucasus, which is

14:35

Russia's most important port. It's not just the base

14:37

of the fleet, but this is the most

14:39

important port for Russian all exports. And

14:42

the moment Ukraine did show it

14:44

can strike it, Russia really

14:46

stopped its attempts to interfere with shipping

14:48

from Odessa Ukraine the import and

14:51

so the blockade of Edessa collapsed, and now

14:53

Desa is shipping more goods out of Ukrainian

14:56

into Ukraine than it was before

14:58

the war. So Russia's attempt to jungle

15:00

Ukraine economically was

15:02

thwarted, and by creating

15:04

a very credible threat to Russia's own economy.

15:06

And I think that's what the Crain's trying to do now by using

15:08

drones to strike oil refineries

15:11

and other strategic industries inside Russia

15:14

hundreds of miles away. I mean really, strike was

15:16

nearly a thousand miles away in this

15:19

sort of two for tat that Ukrainians

15:21

hope will make Russians think twice

15:23

about hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, which they've

15:26

been doing with great frequency using North

15:28

Korean ballistic missiles and made drones

15:31

in addition to Russia's own weaponry.

15:34

One of the surprises of this war is

15:37

how limited the Russian military

15:40

industrial complex was and how

15:42

much they've had to buy from Iran and

15:44

China and North Korea. I mean, I don't think

15:46

anybody would have expected North

15:49

Korea and Iran to become

15:51

major suppliers of military

15:53

capability, but it's clear that

15:55

the internal Russian system

15:58

is literally not capable of meeting

16:00

the challenge that they now got. Well.

16:03

Ye absolutely, I think corruption was part of that,

16:06

both corruption in the military industries,

16:09

corruption and intelligence services, because

16:12

allegedly all this Ukrainian

16:14

officials and military commanders were on Russian

16:17

peril and Putting was expecting them

16:19

to switch sides on the day

16:21

of the invasion, and they didn't because probably

16:23

a lot of that money was cammed along the way, thankfully

16:25

for your Crain and they having a lot of

16:28

mysterious death of Russian military

16:30

industry, you know, CEOs

16:33

and other senior officials since then and

16:35

detentions and corruption trials. I

16:37

think Russia thought it

16:39

is a much stronger power than it is because

16:42

it showcased its mighty in Syria, and

16:45

in Syria it was very successful. But in Syria,

16:47

turn To played about three three thousand troops, and

16:50

the rest of the world thought the rest of the Russian army

16:52

is as good as those best formations

16:55

and the best pilots and the best planes of the Central Syria.

16:58

But the rest of the Russian army was not that bad. The

17:00

rest of the Russian Army was still stuck in the

17:02

Soviet era.

17:04

Well, and of course the classic Soviet

17:06

are involved such a huge

17:08

force that Putin

17:10

can't replicate it. I mean, whatever

17:13

he's trying to do, he's not going to get

17:15

the level of power that Stalin had and

17:18

the sheer im mobilization that

17:20

occurred in World War Two.

17:21

Let's run by history, and when the Soviet Union

17:24

invated Finland the outset

17:26

of the Second World War, Finland

17:28

had about three and a half million people. Soviet

17:31

Unions sent nine hundred thousand soldiers to

17:33

Finland, still failed to take kill Sinki.

17:37

Finland still held them and they lost some territory.

17:39

But they survived as an independent country. And

17:41

that's why the Ukrainians and they were watching the Russian

17:44

sent two hundred thousand men into

17:46

Ukraine, a country of forty million people, or

17:48

scratching the hands and saying, what are they

17:50

thinking.

17:51

I haven't seen Putin able to

17:54

generate the sheer combat power

17:57

that Stalin did. I mean, when Stalin understood

17:59

how good the Fins were and

18:02

how hard they were going to be to beat Ian,

18:04

he just really poured an enormous

18:06

amount of combat power into the

18:08

Finish border. You haven't seen anything

18:11

like that scale from pood.

18:13

Well. First of all, Russia is not the Soviet Union. It's

18:16

a smaller country with an aging

18:18

demographic. Not a lot

18:20

of kids were born in the nineteen nineties because of

18:22

all the economic troubles there, so they not

18:24

actually that many young men

18:27

who are that are available to fight, and

18:30

a lot of them motifight. So Puting for political

18:32

reasons, refused

18:34

to mobilize until losing Harkif

18:37

and Hasson in September twenty twenty

18:39

two, and so by

18:42

then his professional army was pretty

18:44

much destroyed. But when he did mobilize,

18:46

three hundred thousand soldiers more

18:48

than a million Russians fled the country. And

18:50

that's the difference because they couldn't flee into Stalion, but

18:52

in current Russia they could just stop in a plane

18:55

flight to Dubai. The ticket to Dubai

18:57

was eight thousand dollars one way on

18:59

the day you out of the mobilization an

19:02

economy class.

19:03

I have to say, someone who's making a lot of

19:05

money out of those airplane flights.

19:07

Well, certainly, yes, yes, And

19:10

then there's also the issue of gear. You

19:12

know, what are you going to arm these trips with. You know, the Russian

19:15

military industries are

19:17

not able to produce what the Soviets are producing.

19:19

The Ukrainians knocked down on the Russian awax

19:22

planes. They are irreplaceable

19:24

because Russia cannot make them. There's are Soviet

19:26

legacy planes. Half of their staff that's

19:28

in them was made in Ukraine, and the Ukraine had

19:31

the main aircraft engine plant in the Soviet

19:33

Union in that region. And the

19:35

same goes for lots of other stuff. So

19:38

right now Ukraine destroys probably

19:40

three times as many tanks and how it serves

19:43

in a month. Then Russia is able to either

19:46

build or repair for you

19:48

know, using salvaged parts and really old

19:50

models. This mathematics of

19:52

attrition actually doesn't work in Russia's favor

19:54

as long as Ukraine is able to draw on the

19:56

industrial base of the

19:58

West and on the money from the way.

20:01

It's very important that we

20:03

communicate with our listeners how

20:05

vital it is that the United

20:07

States sustain its support

20:10

and sustain the flow of ammunition

20:12

and equipment. But I have to take a

20:14

brief, won't ask you about one of the more startling

20:17

things that has to I think

20:20

have some impact on Putent's thinking, and

20:22

that was the attack at the

20:24

concert hall outside Moscow where

20:27

Islamic gunmen killed over one hundred and thirty

20:29

people. Then there's a lot of arguing

20:32

about exactly who sent them and who

20:34

Different people are claiming different things, But

20:37

I think this was the biggest Russian

20:39

disaster since Beslon. So what

20:41

extent is that kind of

20:44

attack inside Russia shake

20:47

the system or shake people's confidence

20:50

in the system.

20:51

Well, I'd say hard to measure, because there's

20:53

no longer any opinion polling in Russia. If

20:55

you say the wrong thing to the upholster on the phone,

20:57

you can get arrested. People have been putting

21:01

really in the depth of his soul

21:03

beliefs that Ukraine was somehow responsible

21:06

for the attack and crocus because if you don't believe

21:09

that that, you have to admit the you've been fighting

21:11

the wrong enemy. His entire worldview

21:14

would shatter, and the image of Russia

21:16

as he's building it, because you know, in the Russian

21:18

propaganda, Russia is now the leader of the global South,

21:21

and the Muslim world is its ally, and

21:24

it's fighting against colonial domination

21:26

by the West of the rest of the world, you know, on behalf

21:29

of the global majority. He gave his speech

21:31

saying it's impossible for Muslims to attack Russia because

21:33

we was actual friends with Muslims. I

21:35

mean, obviously lots of Muslim countries were also attacked by

21:37

Islamic states. They didn't stop them from killing.

21:40

Most of the victims of Islamic states were actually Muslims.

21:43

Look, it's what they've been doing in the know, in Iraq

21:45

and Syria and other places in

21:47

twenty fourteen and fifteen, I

21:49

think putting lives in a delusionary world,

21:51

I mean, and the reason why in the vated Ukraine

21:54

is the biggest proof, because he really believed

21:56

that the Ukrainians are Russians and will not fight.

21:59

You know, when you talk about Ukraine in that context,

22:01

it seems to me that there was a

22:04

brief period right after World War One where

22:06

there was a Ukrainian independence

22:08

movement. Then there was a terrible period

22:11

where Stalin deliberately starved

22:14

Ukrainian farmers and millions

22:17

died as a result of deliberate Soviet policy.

22:20

And then right after World War Two you

22:22

ended up, if I remember correctly, with a pretty

22:24

significant resistance movement for

22:27

two or three years. I mean that really

22:29

was making a challenging

22:32

Yeah, I mean.

22:32

The Ukrainian idea has been run for quite

22:34

a long time. And the title of my book, our

22:37

Aimals will Vanish, that's a line from the Ukrainian

22:39

national anthem that was written in the eighteen sixties

22:42

in Kiev and goes, our animals

22:44

will vanish like you at sunrise, very

22:47

optimistic and very non bloody set of expectation

22:49

of the enemies just going away. And

22:52

at the time, the Ukrainian language was banned and the

22:54

Ukraine books could not be printed, and the authors

22:57

of this anthem were persecuted by the Russian authorities.

23:00

After the First World War, it was indeed

23:03

a Ukrainian People's Republic in Kiev, and there

23:05

was another Ukrainian Republic. The

23:07

Bolsheviks and Lenin realized that the only

23:09

way they could control Ukraine

23:12

is by allowing this idea of Ukrainian

23:14

nationhood in Ukrainian identity,

23:17

and so there was the Soviet Union

23:20

with the Ukrainian Soviet Republic that

23:22

in the nineteen twenties nineteen thirties was really

23:24

Ukrainian. There was a policy of Ukrainization,

23:27

you know, all officials had to speak Ukrainian, and a

23:29

lot of the leaders of the Ukrainian Independent

23:31

State, including its president Roshevsky,

23:34

returned to Ukraine to be Rjoshruszewski

23:38

was head of the Academy of the Ukrainian Soviet

23:40

Republic. And then Stallion in nineteen

23:42

thirties destroyed all that as

23:44

a term in Ukraine, the executive Reinaissance,

23:47

because much of the Ukrainian cultural

23:49

and intellectual elite was

23:51

just shot in the head and in the prison

23:53

camps and in Krarelia in Northern Russia.

23:56

And then there was a terrible famine and lots

23:58

of other bad things up in Ukraine, which is reason why Ukraine

24:00

is a fighting today because they know what happens

24:03

when the Russians come and take over.

24:22

Part of what I think it's hard for most

24:24

Americans realizes that Kiev was

24:26

actually the center of

24:28

Russian civilization up until the Mongols

24:30

attack, and that the Great Wealth,

24:33

the Great Education, the great churches

24:36

were in Kiev. And Moscow was actually

24:38

a relatively small settlement in

24:40

the middle of the forest, which is part

24:42

of what protected it from the Mongols. Plus

24:45

it paid tribute. But it seems to

24:47

me that there is a deep

24:49

historic sense of

24:51

Ukraine as an important

24:53

center of civilization that

24:56

makes it more difficult for them

24:59

to bow to control

25:01

from Moscow.

25:02

But the President of Ukraine and the President

25:04

of Russia are named after Grand

25:07

Prince Volodimmer of Kiev Vladimir. When

25:09

Vladimir ruled, Moscow did not exist.

25:12

One hundred years after Herold, Moscular did not exist.

25:15

To Wander, the hearths of the Heralds could not exist.

25:18

And to the Ukrainians, the Russians

25:21

claiming the heritage their roots

25:23

in the ki Rus, which was not Russia, but the Rus

25:26

is misappropriation. I mean what

25:28

they say is that, you know, we had the state in Ukraine,

25:30

in Kiev. It was a great state,

25:33

and then you know, many centuries later,

25:36

the princes in Moscow, who only rose to

25:38

power because they were collecting taxes for the Mongols.

25:41

This was the historical reason for the rise

25:43

of the Moscow Kingdom, decided

25:45

to appropriate our history and declare themselves

25:47

to be the heirs to the rules. And

25:50

that is really Russia's foundational myth, because if you

25:52

strip away that past, then

25:55

the Russian sense of identity really

25:57

collapses, which is why the existence

25:59

of Ukraine is an independent country. Kiv

26:02

being the capital of a different country is really

26:05

a threat to Russian identity, and

26:07

which is why it's so hard not

26:10

just for Putin but the great many Russians to accept

26:12

the idea that Ukraine is a different country. The

26:14

Kiv rust is a history of a different country, and

26:17

Prince Vladimur was the Prince of Kiev, not the Prince

26:20

of Moscow.

26:21

It seems to me that in that sense, the

26:24

likelihood of Ukrainian

26:26

nationalism caving

26:28

and deciding to accept the Russians

26:31

is very tiny. That there's

26:33

a deep resistance and a deep sense of

26:35

identity, not both because they

26:37

want to be free, but also because they want to be Ukrainian.

26:41

Yeah, absolutely, and I think it's very interesting

26:43

how the Ukrainian identity changed over

26:46

the last half a century

26:48

of century, and that's really

26:50

the reason why why Ukraine has been able

26:52

to be so resilient and to resist. Ukrainian

26:55

nationalism back in the nineteen

26:57

thirties nineteen forties, like most other national in

27:00

Europe, was pretty

27:02

dark. It was very exclusive, anti

27:04

Semitic. Quite often. You know, there was a lot of Ukrainian

27:07

collaboration with the Nazis,

27:09

as there was you know in the Botic States and many other countries

27:11

in Europe and France, and I know Wesley

27:13

in Russia too. I mean, there was an entire Russian division,

27:16

Nazi division. It's all changed

27:19

in the seventies and the eighties when

27:21

the Ukrainian dissidents were in the same camps

27:24

in Siberia as the Jewish Refuseniks,

27:26

as the Baltic colleagues, as the Russians,

27:29

and the idea was when Ukraine was born

27:32

as an independent state, it was the foundational

27:34

idea is that it's a very American idea,

27:36

So of everyone in this country is a Ukrainian

27:39

as long as you want to work for Ukraine

27:41

for the well being of your fellow Ukrainians.

27:44

And that's why Ukraine now could have a

27:46

president who happens to be Jewish, the Minister

27:49

of Defense who happens to be Muslim,

27:51

the head of the military who happens to be

27:53

born in Russia, General Serski, and

27:56

nobody cares about that because it's not about blood

27:58

anymore. It's not about which,

28:00

It is not about what church you go to or

28:02

synagogue or mosque. It's about

28:04

serving Ukraine, which is I think very

28:07

unique among European nationalisms

28:09

that are all about blood and soil.

28:11

Well, as you said, it's a little bit like the American model

28:13

that you get to be Ukrainian if you declare

28:16

you are, and you get to be American if you

28:18

declare your Their absorbent nationalisms

28:22

rather than exclusive nationalisms.

28:25

Before we get to the vital importance

28:27

of getting the next round of aid, the one

28:29

thing that most bothered me about

28:32

Biden's response, which was dramatically better

28:34

than Obama's, was they

28:36

kept having this fear

28:39

that if they sent modern equipment

28:42

that would trigger Putin to go nuclear,

28:44

and in a sense, the Biden

28:46

administration kept locking its

28:48

own hands. My guess is,

28:51

if we had sent everything we've sent

28:53

since then, in the first three months.

28:56

The effect would have been electric and

28:58

changing the whole dynamic of the war. But

29:01

we kept convincing ourselves that if

29:03

we actually enabled Ukraine to

29:05

win decisively, that Putin's

29:07

balance point would be to go nuclear.

29:10

What's your estimate of the danger

29:12

of Putin actually using nuclear weapons.

29:15

I think the bluff has been called over time, and

29:17

it turned out to be just bluff. It

29:20

was called by Ukrainians as well, because at some

29:22

point when Ukraine was advancing

29:24

in September twenty twenty two, Putting declared

29:27

all those areas to be part of Russia and said, now

29:30

this is Russia and we will use all our means

29:32

to defend them, money further, you

29:34

know, and we have nuclear weapons. Nukrainans went further

29:37

into the city of Harassan, to the city

29:39

of Leman, and he didn't do

29:41

anything. So I think this self

29:43

imposed self deterrence,

29:45

as it's called basically, you know, it was really

29:47

really unnecessary

29:51

and it really undermined then to

29:53

our effort. And if we look, you know, people will

29:55

say, okay, you know, the US gave Ukraine

29:57

a lot of stuff, and that's true, tens and tens

30:00

tens of billions of dollars of weapons and equipment

30:02

over time. But if

30:04

you talk to Ukrainian commanders that would tell you,

30:07

Okay, well there is a fire and you

30:09

need the bucket of water to extinguish the fire.

30:11

If you give us this bucket of water right away, we

30:14

can extinguish it. But what we got

30:16

from the US was a lot of teacups over

30:18

the course of two years. There was never

30:20

this critical mass, and

30:22

whenever a new system was introduced, it was

30:25

introduced to its limited numbers, and by

30:27

the time numbers increased, the Russian clordy

30:29

would find a way of counteracting it.

30:31

So, given though we are now where

30:34

we are, how much

30:36

damage has been done over the last three months

30:39

by American political infighting and

30:41

inability to pass

30:43

a to Ukraine in a timely.

30:45

Way Russia, if you look at the map,

30:48

the map has not changed dramatically.

30:51

Russia took the city of Zifka, which

30:54

is a city of about thirty thousand people. It is the

30:56

first city it did take since May last

30:58

year, and lost

31:00

a lot of people. Russian estimates

31:02

are sixteen thousand people died for the

31:05

sixteen thousand Russian soldiers. Ukraine

31:07

also sustaining very heavy losses. Every

31:10

day of these delays is measured in hundreds

31:12

of lives of Ukrainian

31:14

soldiers that they killed injured, And

31:18

WO don't know whether Russia

31:21

will be able at some point in the coming months

31:23

to assemble its critical mass to punch

31:25

through the Ukrainian front lines and

31:27

to get dramatically more ground. So

31:29

the Europeans have stepped in partially.

31:32

The capacity is limited, but they're doing a

31:34

lot more than they used to. But

31:37

there are a lot of things that only

31:39

the US can provide, such as interceptress for the patriots.

31:41

And Russia is taking advantage of this disruption

31:45

in supply, lobbing missiles

31:47

into Ukrainian cities every day, causing

31:50

casualties, destroying the Ukrainian power

31:52

infrastructure, and destroying its military

31:54

capacity.

31:56

Whatever you think about Ukraine per se

32:00

allowing Putin to win and

32:02

as a result, project power into

32:05

Central Europe and almost certainly

32:07

I think try to reabsorb the Three

32:09

Baldage States. This is a future

32:12

that we cannot allow to happen. That

32:15

Putin's victory would be a catastrophe

32:18

for everything that the Western world

32:20

has tried to achieve since the

32:22

late nineteen thirties.

32:24

Absolutely, and not just in Europe. I would say

32:27

China is watching very carefully what's

32:29

happening in Ukraine. The people of Taiwan

32:31

are watching very carefree. The

32:33

people in Taiwan will have to make up their mind

32:36

one day, are going to resist the Chinese

32:38

or are going to just yield and surrender. And

32:41

if they see the US walking away from

32:43

Ukraine for no particular reason, you know,

32:45

the Americans are dying. The

32:48

US economy is not impacted by the war in

32:50

Ukraine, I like the Europeans, and the Europeans had to make

32:52

sacrifices. They had to get

32:54

rid of their dependent on cheap Russian gas

32:56

that fuel the German economy. The US didn'habted

32:59

to that independent Russians.

33:01

Hopefully in the next two or three weeks this

33:04

will be solved and the money will start

33:06

to flow again. And I think there are a lot

33:08

of people trying to make that happen, including

33:10

Speaker Johnson, who is taking

33:13

some real risks in his own conference. Would

33:15

you talk a little bit about your

33:17

Wall Street Journal colleague, Heavin

33:20

Kershkovitz, who's been detained in Russia

33:22

for a year now, and also the

33:24

whole challenge of the fact that they're

33:26

over five hundred and twenty reporters locked

33:29

up around the world. I mean, just focusing

33:31

on locking up reporters strikes

33:34

me as an enormous threat to the whole

33:36

free world.

33:38

Well, you know, detators are afraid of truth,

33:41

they're afraid of information. They are friend people

33:43

piercing the bubble of propernanda. And

33:45

that is one of the reasons why Russian

33:49

Putin has gone after Evan, because

33:52

Evan was there writing stories

33:54

that explain what's really happening in Russia.

33:57

He was doing his job as a journalist,

34:00

doing great job, and that

34:02

did not please the regime there. And

34:04

we have seen other

34:07

authoritary regimes clapping down the press,

34:09

not necessarily by detaining

34:12

journalis, but also by the enang visas expelling them.

34:14

We've seen in China it's very hard to

34:16

work in China as well. Any forty

34:18

journals going to Russia is playing Russian or Electorate.

34:20

Now. It's pretty sobering, and

34:22

of course our prayers are with Evan

34:25

and his family and we hope that we

34:27

can get him released herself. I

34:29

want to thank you for joining me your

34:31

new book, Our Enemies will Vanish,

34:34

the Russian invasion and Ukraine's

34:36

War of Independence is available now

34:39

on Amazon and in bookstores everywhere.

34:42

I encourage everyone who's concerned

34:44

not just about Ukraine, but about the

34:46

peace of the West and the survival of

34:48

our values and the necessity

34:50

of defeating Russia and pick up a copy.

34:52

And you can follow our slaves reporting

34:55

with the Wall Street Journal at WSJ

34:58

dot com. But thank you very.

35:00

Much for being with us, Thank you so much

35:02

for having me.

35:06

Thank you to my guest, Jarislov Truffemoff.

35:09

You can get a link to buy his new book, Our

35:11

Enemies Will Vanish, the Russian

35:14

Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence

35:17

on our show page at newtsworld

35:19

dot com. Newsworld is produced

35:21

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35:24

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35:26

Sloan. Our researcher is

35:28

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35:30

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35:33

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