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unfiltered coverage surrounding the early primaries and

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plus nominating results in real time with

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the free mobile app C-SPAN now or

0:26

watch live on the C-SPAN networks. Today

0:30

we're going to talk about how Trump's $83 million verdict

0:32

changes everything for him moving forward and I

0:34

interview longtime Republican advisor and host of the

0:36

Hacks on Tap podcast, Mike Murphy, about Trump's

0:39

effort to end Nikki Haley's campaign backfiring, whether

0:41

her supporters may defect to Joe Biden in

0:43

November and his thoughts on the US Senate

0:45

race in California. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen and

0:48

you're listening to No Lie. You

0:52

likely know by now that Trump was just hit with

0:54

an astronomical judgment of $83 million in

0:57

the second defamation case brought by Eugene Carroll. So

1:00

here's why this verdict changes everything for Trump moving

1:02

forward. Prior to this ruling in

1:04

the first iteration of this case, Trump was

1:06

hit with a $5 million judgment. So I

1:08

don't know how rich Trump is, but we

1:10

have a sense right and that sense is

1:12

that a $5 million judgment doesn't have much

1:14

of an impact on someone who is not

1:16

only already wealthy but also has an email

1:18

list of millions of people at his disposal

1:21

who are just perfectly ready to empty their

1:23

wallets out for him. But when Trump

1:25

was hit with an $83 million

1:27

judgment, that's different for two reasons. Now

1:30

at first, it may be easy to milk your

1:32

marks for $5 million, a lot less easy to

1:34

milk them for $83 million. That

1:36

is a big number and it hurts. And

1:38

it remains to be seen what Judge Kaplan does

1:41

in terms of requiring some bond pending Trump's appeal,

1:43

but he's not going to be able to wiggle his

1:45

way out of this. And if you need proof,

1:47

by the way, that this hurts him financially, notice

1:49

that the punitive damages are actually having the intended

1:51

effect of deterring him from defaming Eugene Carroll again.

1:54

After that $5 million judgment a few months

1:56

back, it took Donald Trump all of 24

1:59

hours hours before he defamed

2:01

her this time I mean it's already

2:03

been a few days as of this recording

2:05

and the guy is tip-toeing around her like

2:07

a teenager trying to sneak out of the

2:09

house for Donald Trump of all people like

2:11

this this human grenade with no pin to

2:13

not lash out like a raving lunatic and

2:15

actually respect a court ruling is all the

2:18

proof you need that this number hurts him

2:20

and it hurts him badly so

2:22

you know I don't want to be all Susan Collins

2:24

here but holy shit maybe we actually found a number

2:26

that it takes to make Trump stop breaking the law.

2:29

Trump's finances are one thing yes it'll hurt

2:31

him in the wallet and for good reason

2:33

but here's the more important effect of this

2:35

ruling it shatters his air of invincibility this

2:37

idea that nothing can happen to him that

2:40

he's Teflon Don that he can commit crimes

2:42

with impunity and by the way Trump relies

2:44

on that cynicism he wants us to be

2:46

so disgusted with the dysfunction of the justice

2:48

system and the political system that we all

2:50

lose faith in it that we all abandoned

2:52

it. That's not some like convenient little added

2:54

benefit for him that is the hallmark of

2:56

a strategy but that illusion of

2:58

his invincibility is now shattered so was

3:00

just held accountable by a judge and

3:02

a jury who didn't care about his

3:04

ranting and his raving and threats and

3:06

temper tantrums to the tune of eighty

3:08

three million dollars they weren't scared into

3:11

submission. And so now Trump moves

3:13

forward into his subsequent prosecutions not enjoying

3:15

the high of having gotten away with

3:17

it but being seriously damaged from the

3:19

last trial where he was actually held

3:21

to account. And in the same way

3:23

that the first indictment was the hardest but

3:26

then the next three felt like dominoes this take

3:28

down of Trump may have been the first time

3:30

that the guy was really truly hit hard in

3:32

court but it paves away for the next jury

3:35

that no this guy won't fall that it's not

3:37

some impossibility to hold this run of the mill

3:39

con man to account for his own actions. And

3:42

I want to be clear this isn't even

3:44

the only blow that was dealt this week

3:46

he was hoping to end the Republican primary

3:48

instead he managed to lose forty five percent

3:51

of the vote in New Hampshire and basically

3:53

ensure that Nikki Haley would spend the next

3:55

month campaigning against him before her home state

3:57

of South Carolina that means more money spent

3:59

fighting. Republican. That means more

4:01

of a wedge driven between Haley voters

4:03

and Trump voters more Republican sponsored attacks

4:05

against Donald Trump more hard truth that

4:07

Republican voters are going to hear from

4:09

one of Trump's own cabinet members and

4:11

less time that Trump can attack Joe

4:13

Biden and that's to say nothing of

4:15

the fact that in two races in a row

4:18

now at least a third of the Republican primary

4:20

electorate has said in polling that a conviction would

4:22

mean that Trump is unfit for office. And

4:25

you know as always I can't predict the future

4:27

but I would bet my last dollar that Donald

4:29

Trump will be convicted on at least one of

4:31

the ninety one charges against him I mean hell

4:33

it's likely to be convicted on all ninety one

4:35

so if you think that things seem tenuous for

4:38

Trump now where he's barely been able to manage

4:40

more than half of his own party's base voters

4:42

in the first two contests. Just wait

4:44

until we get to the general and all of

4:46

a sudden tens of millions of Americans who hadn't

4:48

been paying attention before are going to find out

4:50

that Trump is a convicted felon probably not going

4:52

to fly for the same party that walks around

4:54

beating its chest as the defenders of law and

4:56

order. But as always I do

4:58

have to say this he brought

5:00

this on himself no one forced Donald Trump to

5:02

defame Eugene Carroll no one forced him to interfere

5:05

in the electoral certification no one forced him to

5:07

steal documents from the White House no one forced

5:09

him to direct his henchmen to undermine the election

5:11

results in Georgia. No one forced him to commit

5:14

campaign finance violations like he might claim

5:16

that all of these prosecutions the result of

5:18

some coordinated witch hunts against him by the

5:20

Democrats but remember it was the Democrats who

5:22

pleaded with him not to do all of

5:24

this had he bothered listening to the one

5:26

group of people who he's now blaming he

5:28

wouldn't have to set a single foot in

5:30

the courtroom so the next time that Donald

5:32

Trump tries to blame the left just remember that the

5:34

left were the only ones giving him the right advice

5:36

to stay out of court. Next

5:39

up is my interview with Mike Murphy. Now

5:43

we've got longtime Republican adviser and co-host of the hacks on tap podcast

5:45

Mike Murphy thanks for coming back on. Oh

5:49

it's good to be here man great to be

5:52

back with you so let's let's start off with

5:54

the ongoing Republican primary Donald Trump issued a threat

5:56

against Nikki Haley's donors that they would be black

5:58

and white. backlisted if

6:00

they do end up donating to her.

6:03

In the first 48 hours after he issued that

6:05

threat, she raised, I think it was over $2.5

6:08

million. Would you say

6:10

that this backfired on Trump a little bit? Oh,

6:13

totally, on so many levels. In fact,

6:15

I talked to an old buddy of

6:17

mine from Texas who's a Haley donor,

6:19

somebody who served a distinction in Republican

6:21

politics. He said, yeah, I saw

6:23

that and I sent her more money. I want to get

6:26

a little pin that says, come try me. I

6:31

mean, truly, what is the rationale here? And

6:34

we're going to talk about this. This is

6:37

one of my upcoming questions. But what is

6:39

the rationale here? Because there isn't, I mean,

6:41

do they really believe that Nikki Haley is

6:43

going to win this primary? Well, no,

6:45

they just want to put up the noble fight. You know,

6:47

I mean, well, let me back up a minute. So that

6:50

was the craziest election night in American history.

6:52

And I have a theory about what really

6:54

happened. During the day,

6:56

you know, the networks were doing exit

6:58

polls, which are tricky because you

7:00

take them during the day as waves of

7:02

voters. They call in the results. A computer

7:04

makes a model. And within

7:07

the networks, they keep updating, but you get

7:09

a number. So the midday number, based

7:11

on the morning exits, was pretty tight. It was

7:13

like three or four points. And

7:15

that started leaking out. And I think somebody told

7:18

Trump and he went batshit crazy and they had

7:20

to like Falcon hood him, get a straight jacket

7:22

out. And he was pissed off all day. Later

7:25

waves showed it widening the reality with more

7:27

like 11 points. But

7:30

Trump was so wound up, he went out

7:32

there and did crazy grievance night. And

7:35

it was just Trump unhinged, which is the

7:37

Trump we have, you know, with his mental

7:39

decay. He makes Biden look like Einstein. So

7:42

that was the Trump psychosis that led to the

7:44

not, you know, I'm going to come get you

7:47

all the crazy fascist crap. He's just more

7:50

revealing. Whatever is under pressure, Trump is

7:52

so revealing to all his problems and, you

7:54

know, why he can never be in the

7:56

oval. Now, as far as why donors are

7:58

giving to Haley, is that... They hate

8:00

Trump. You know, there's a wing of

8:02

Republican Party, and I'm one of them, the never-Trumpers

8:04

who don't like him. And in the actual elections,

8:07

she's pulling a lot of independent, or

8:09

in California we call them DTS, declined

8:11

to state votes that

8:14

don't want Trump. The question is, can she get

8:16

the nomination? So I went to New

8:18

Hampshire, I went to Iowa, and in

8:20

addition to HACS and my NBC TV

8:22

stuff, I wrote some substat columns about

8:24

it, which I encourage people to check

8:26

out. And I wrote

8:28

one flying back on election day

8:30

to L.A. from New Hampshire of

8:33

the fork in Nikki Haley's road, that she'd

8:36

go down to South Carolina, fight

8:38

the good fight, which will be emotionally

8:40

satisfying to many people, including me, and

8:42

get killed in the primary, which

8:45

sadly I think is the most likely outcome. Or

8:48

should she fold her tent, step

8:50

back, let Trump advance into winter

8:53

of all the political disasters he's going to

8:55

have, either losing to Biden again, or

8:58

winning and being a disaster, midterm

9:00

2026 disaster, and reappear as

9:03

the one major person left in the Republican Party, you can

9:05

say, I told you so. I predicted this, and I think

9:07

she could have a hell of a run. She's

9:09

young. So if I were advising

9:11

her for her interest, I would say that. Don't

9:14

go losing in South Carolina. Pull back,

9:16

be the fresh face in four years that warned the

9:18

party. And Mike Murphy,

9:21

I want her to go, as I wrote, throw

9:23

a heel, hit him in the head, do

9:25

everything she can to scrape and fight because I'm

9:27

enjoying it. But I can't tell you, I think

9:30

she's going to win the South Carolina primary. Well,

9:32

to that point, the longer that this primary does

9:34

drag on, the more contentious it gets. So

9:37

do you think that Trump runs the

9:39

risk of permanently alienating these Nikki Haley

9:41

voters and ultimately getting them to defect

9:43

to Joe Biden in November? Well,

9:45

it's the second part, that's the hard one. There's

9:47

no doubt that Trump is

9:50

anthrax among independent voters who are key

9:52

to actually win the swing states in

9:54

the fall. And there is

9:57

a minority slice, but it's not a small one

9:59

that would really prefer somebody else. The

10:02

problem is if those

10:04

hold their nose, Republicans in

10:06

the general can go to Joe Biden,

10:09

Trump would lose a general election

10:11

to almost anybody, but the problem

10:14

is the country really wants to

10:16

fire Joe Biden. And

10:18

that's a hard thing for Democrats to swallow. It's

10:20

a hard thing for Biden to swallow. He keeps

10:22

saying we had the best, you know, read the

10:24

statistics is better than you think. But

10:27

presidential elections normally, and we're in

10:29

kind of new territory here, but

10:31

normally start by being a

10:33

referendum on the incumbent. Do we keep them or

10:35

fire them? And based on

10:37

their perceptions, which in politics is

10:39

their reality of the

10:43

status of the economy and other

10:45

things, people want to fire Joe Biden. So

10:47

Trump might actually beat him

10:49

unless the Biden campaign can

10:51

elevate Biden's numbers. Uh,

10:54

so the election becomes a focus on what's

10:56

wrong with Trump. The scariest number, just to

10:58

wrap this part up. If

11:00

you take a poll right now of general election

11:02

voters who will decide the next president, do

11:05

you like Trump? No, we hate him. Do you like Biden? No,

11:07

we want to fire him. Well, two guys you

11:09

don't like in this unappetizing

11:12

choice, who's better at running the

11:14

economy? And they give it to Trump by better than 10, 12

11:16

points. Biden

11:19

can't have that. He can't be the second

11:21

worst evil here. Well, I mean, at this

11:23

point, we're seeing those numbers actually start to

11:25

shift as the economy gets better and as

11:28

perceptions continue to change about the economy. I

11:30

mean, you know, I can do my democratic

11:32

laundry list of accomplishments as far as the

11:34

economy goes. No, no, I'm sure that you've

11:36

heard it from after. The perception lags. I

11:39

don't think it's there yet. So

11:41

where are we in October? That'll be it. Of course. And

11:44

it is a lagging indicator. And I think for as long

11:46

as the economy has been doing well, I mean, for we

11:48

know we've been under 4% unemployment for

11:50

22 straight months. Now we've got record

11:52

black unemployment. Dow and the S&P 500

11:54

are both at record highs right now.

11:57

And we'll see this continue to... We'll

11:59

see a... about the economy continue

12:01

to change. The question is whether it changes, you know,

12:03

in the right amount of time. I'm going to persec

12:05

these reality and Biden's getting no credit right now. The

12:08

stats are increasing in the right direction, which

12:10

gives you hope, but we need a Biden

12:12

campaign that does not tell people it's the

12:15

fourth best Thanksgiving, does not tell

12:17

people read the damn statistics. They've got to start

12:19

feeling it. And hopefully the reduced

12:21

inflation now, which Biden can take credit for,

12:24

will start to be felt out there. That's why

12:27

inflation is so cruel. It's an

12:29

electric shock every week at the grocery checkout

12:31

or when you try to buy a new car truck

12:33

or whatever. So yeah, but hoping

12:36

that happens is not enough of a strategy for

12:38

Biden to get elected because of the other problem.

12:40

He's 118. Now, Trump's

12:43

old too. I think Trump's crazier. In a

12:45

Trump Biden election, this rocked

12:47

rib conservative Republican, I'm voting for Joe

12:49

Biden in a New York minute. But

12:52

they got to step it up campaign wise

12:55

because right now they're losing to an idiot.

12:57

The conventional wisdom among the punditry,

13:00

among the punditariat is

13:02

that Trump notched historic wins in Iowa

13:04

and New Hampshire. But I'm not really

13:06

buying into that because Trump is basically

13:09

running as an incumbent and he said

13:11

as much as Republican opponents have said

13:13

as much. So I think the expectations

13:15

here are different. Meaning if you're only

13:18

getting 51% of the vote, as

13:20

was the case in Iowa, or 55% of the

13:23

vote, as was the case in New Hampshire, at the

13:25

same time that you're trying to convince everyone the

13:27

second coming of Christ in the Republican Party, those

13:30

numbers aren't adding up. So what are your thoughts on

13:32

that in terms of? I'm kind of in the middle

13:34

on that. I give him some credit as much as

13:37

I hate to for the Iowa number. He set the

13:39

record. I mean, your point is right.

13:41

He does run as the president who was cheated with

13:43

the election. And so you would

13:45

say in a presidential re-elect, his numbers

13:47

are terrible, but it wasn't quite

13:50

that. He set the limit

13:52

in Iowa. He had multiple candidates try to

13:54

get at him there. So

13:57

I gotta give him an award for a pretty good

13:59

Iowa. last time he lost to Cruz, that

14:02

he had a contested deal there. And he pretty

14:04

much almost doubled his vote. So New

14:07

Hampshire, on the other hand, it

14:10

was really just him and Haley. There was

14:12

nobody else. And he won fair

14:14

and square. You know, he got

14:16

12 delegates, probably she got eight. So

14:19

it wasn't a crushing win there. If

14:21

you X-ray his numbers, though, there

14:24

was very little Republican enthusiasm for him. And

14:26

everybody else was dead set 80-20 against him.

14:28

I actually think Nicky could have beat him

14:30

in New Hampshire if she got in her

14:32

act together and she made a lot of

14:35

mistakes. So I don't give him as good of a grade

14:37

for New Hampshire. If you kind of X-ray him, he

14:39

looks more like Keith Richards. You know, there's a lot

14:41

of bad news in the X-ray for him. What

14:44

about that number? I believe it

14:46

was 31% in Iowa and something like 39% or 42%

14:48

in New Hampshire. And

14:53

this is among Republican caucus goers

14:55

and primary goers that if Donald Trump is

14:57

convicted in any of these trials, that they

15:00

would think he would be unfit to serve.

15:02

And like, you know, not going to predict

15:04

the future here, but the guy is contending

15:06

with 91 criminal charges. A lot of

15:09

them are home runs. Yeah. You

15:11

know, in the Republican primary among,

15:14

keep in mind, New Hampshire is

15:16

a hybrid primary. It's over 40%

15:18

Democrats and independents who lean, mostly

15:21

independents lean Republicans. So it

15:23

matches Haley's number. You know, she got to

15:26

the forties. All the questions you ask people

15:28

about Trump are pretty hostile to him in

15:30

the forties there. So yeah, he's got a

15:32

big problem. He, he looks like death in

15:35

a general election. And I think while

15:37

the court cases in the fun house,

15:39

mere world of the Republican primary, you can

15:42

argue, help him because, oh, they're

15:44

just out to get them. It's all the

15:46

fixed Democrat machine, you know, blah, blah, all

15:48

institutions are corrupt. All that poison in

15:51

a general election, those

15:53

voters you're talking about New Hampshire and

15:55

everywhere else do resonate to the fact

15:58

jailbird president. So yes. another

16:00

problem for him, which is why if you put

16:02

a gun to my head, I think Biden probably

16:04

eats out a victory. But it's

16:06

uncomfortably close because the country wants to fire

16:09

the president. And when the country is there,

16:11

if they're still there, that's why you have a

16:13

campaign to fix that. But if

16:16

they still think Biden is too old and they can't run

16:18

the economy, I am very

16:20

worried about how much they will give Trump a

16:22

pass on all this other stuff. I do have

16:24

two things to remind you of in terms of

16:26

wanting to fire Joe Biden. The first is that

16:28

that's been the case all along that Joe Biden

16:30

has not been especially popular, and yet Democrats have

16:32

overperformed in 2022 and 2023. And they've also got

16:34

the added benefit of the Dobbs issue. And

16:42

with these Republican governors and Republican legislatures across

16:44

the state going farther and farther to the

16:46

right on the issue of abortion, they're doing

16:48

themselves no favors at a time when they

16:50

could be taking advantage of the fact that

16:52

yes, Biden is unpopular. It's a

16:55

great wedge issue for Democrats among most

16:57

voters. The Republican Party keeps picking a

16:59

finger in the light socket. So I

17:01

agree if you're there. I'm such a

17:03

Jurassic consultant. I've been

17:05

around when people

17:07

decide they don't want the incumbent president anymore.

17:10

It's not a two-way race. It becomes a one and

17:13

a halfway race. And a lot of the arguments against

17:16

Trump, which I

17:18

believe are true about Trump, were somewhat

17:20

unfairly made about Reagan in 1980. Oh,

17:22

they're not going to... A guy, a

17:24

washed up Hollywood actor in chimp movies

17:27

who keeps saying trees cause pollution is

17:30

going to beat Jimmy Carter. But

17:32

yeah, because the bar for Reagan was pretty

17:34

low because they wanted to fire Carter. So

17:36

the dependent veritable and the equation of this election

17:38

is going to be what people think of Joe

17:40

Biden in October. And they have a case to

17:42

argue, you're doing a good job of making it.

17:45

But they haven't made it there

17:47

yet. And the other problem is age is a very

17:49

hard thing for them to get rid of. The advice

17:52

I keep giving, which they

17:54

resist, is I say you've got

17:56

a star cabinet of young democratic stars. You got

17:58

a Buddha judge, you got a... got Gina

18:00

Raimondo, you got Mitch Landrieu,

18:02

all incredibly capable, successful politicians

18:04

surround Biden, make it the

18:07

team. Cause the Trump team is

18:09

the dregs from the bottom of the barrel.

18:11

Right. And that's a good contrast. Now with

18:13

the Biden people, they haven't told me

18:15

this, but I think what they're thinking is no, that'll

18:17

make them look older. Well, you've lost

18:19

the old thing, you know, you're not going

18:22

to put that toothpaste back on the tooth.

18:24

It's a good point. Make him the, make

18:26

him Gandalf with his team of excellence. Yeah.

18:28

It would prop them up. Biden alone, just

18:31

the communications issues of his age and everything, they

18:33

get in the way of the message. You

18:35

got to fix it. I think that's a great

18:37

point. I also like how we got, I think less than

18:40

10 minutes into the podcast before Gina Raimondo got a shout

18:42

out. I know I'm a fan. For

18:44

anybody who watches, who doesn't watch the hacks on tap

18:46

podcast or listen to the hacks on tap podcast. First

18:48

of all, definitely tune in. It is

18:50

one of my absolute all time favorites and

18:52

it is a consistent listen every single week.

18:54

Uh, but I don't think a single episode

18:57

goes by where Gina Raimondo doesn't get a

18:59

shout out from Mike Murphy here. Uh,

19:01

Mike, do you think that going back

19:03

to Nikki Haley for just one more moment, do you

19:05

think that she's trying to set herself up as the

19:07

heir apparent in the Republican party in the event that

19:10

Donald Trump does end up convicted before the 2024 election?

19:13

Maybe, but she's digging in on what's wrong with

19:15

Trump. She's a little too late to the party

19:17

on that. I think she's

19:20

got to make a big decision strategically for

19:22

her career. Does

19:24

she, you know, play

19:26

the long-term politics or

19:28

does she want to try to be her

19:30

apparent if she plays the long-term politics, does

19:32

she bet on a Trump crack up, he

19:34

loses again, two time loser to Biden, and

19:37

they're going to want something different in four

19:39

years conservative, but again, the,

19:41

I told you so campaign. I see was one

19:43

assault coming. Or does she want

19:45

to try to elbow out Tim Scott and

19:48

Doug Bergam, you know, ran for

19:50

an hour for president and run

19:52

my new name form, the sick

19:54

of pantheist, um, to

19:56

be the junior Trump and try to go there. Well,

19:58

she's kind of digging her grave. in that thing

20:00

to her credit, I think. So I

20:03

think being the heir apparent to

20:05

Trump, out of reach for her. Being

20:08

the, okay, we got

20:10

to move beyond this Trump

20:13

candidate in four years, I think she

20:15

could, she has a shot. She's young,

20:17

she's a good political athlete, made

20:19

her rookie mistakes in this campaign, a lot of them,

20:22

but you learn from that. And remember,

20:24

in the Republican Party, the Steele-Bagala's old

20:26

joke, they like to nominate the oldest

20:28

white person in the room. Well, that's

20:31

often somebody who's run twice. Yeah.

20:33

You know, Reagan ran twice, Romney ran

20:35

twice, Bob Dole ran three times. Her

20:38

second shot may be the gold if she handles

20:41

this right. I just don't see a path

20:43

to the nomination now, which is too bad. I'm all for

20:46

her. Worst case scenario, there's always

20:48

a fourth chair at the Hacks on Tap

20:50

podcast alongside Murphy

20:52

Axe and Gibbs. No, no, we hate each other.

20:54

I mean, I don't like Nikki. I know her,

20:56

she's not my favorite, she's a cynic, but against

20:59

Trump, she's Gandhi and I'm all for her. Yeah.

21:01

Mike, if you were advising Biden on how to beat Trump

21:03

right now, what would you tell him to do? I

21:07

would say, Mr. President, before

21:11

he throws me out of the office. Yeah,

21:13

yeah. You're running the classic incumbent campaign that

21:15

senators run, which is, you tell those voters,

21:17

here are my accomplishments, damn it. Tell them

21:19

to get the facts and then they're gonna

21:21

vote for me. It's kind of

21:23

an emotional support animal for him and I've

21:25

had a lot of incumbents say, any

21:28

consultant has with a couple. I wrote my

21:30

first ad and it's an hour long, pass

21:32

the left hand on right turn assistance bill,

21:34

you know, all I've done for you. Yeah.

21:37

Instead he's got to move the election to motive. Why

21:39

is he doing this? To help

21:41

hard-pressed middle-class families, you know, have a

21:44

better life in America. Why is Trump

21:46

doing it for himself? To weed,

21:48

to get even, to make his cronies rich.

21:50

He's not on your side. So move the

21:52

election, what do you get? You

21:54

get Biden, a team of excellent

21:57

people who are motivated by helping you and people

21:59

like you and get your problems and are

22:01

making progress. We're not there yet, but we're

22:03

doing the hard work. And

22:05

hopefully as the economic perceptions change later

22:07

in the year, then they can really

22:10

cash that in, but lay the predicate for

22:12

it now versus

22:15

Trump's extremism, his greed, his

22:17

lack of respect for law and order, all

22:20

the Trump things. But it's got

22:22

to be a contrast of motives and it's got

22:24

to be about middle-class kitchen table economics, who's

22:26

for who and who's for themselves and who wins

22:29

in the end. What does the day after the

22:31

election look like for you, voter? Rather

22:33

than here's my great record, you idiots don't

22:35

understand it, the statistics are great, you owe

22:38

me a vote. Mike,

22:40

you are the co-director of the

22:43

Center for Political Future at USC

22:45

at the University of Southern California.

22:47

Just this past week, our friend,

22:49

Alex Michelson, co-moderated a debate between

22:51

the top polling U.S. Senate candidates

22:53

for California, including Adam Schiff, Katie

22:55

Porter, Barbara Lee, and Republican Steve

22:57

Garvey. What did you think

23:00

about the debate and what are your thoughts more

23:02

broadly on that race for the

23:04

U.S. Senate? Yeah, I thought it was a good debate.

23:06

I thought Alex did a great job. You

23:09

had four personalities up there. You had

23:11

two Democratic members of Congress who

23:14

were leading the pack and fundraising led by

23:16

Adam Schiff, but also Katie Porter. He's

23:19

more of a fiery Elizabeth Warren populist,

23:22

and Schiff is a little more cerebral. You

23:24

had Steve Garvey, who is the Republican candidate,

23:26

and of course you had Barbara Lee up

23:29

north, a very progressive African-American Democrat. Doesn't have

23:31

a lot of money, doesn't have a lot

23:33

of base, but is a factor and did

23:35

pretty well in the debate, I thought. So

23:37

step one, you got to remember the California

23:39

rules. This is not a

23:41

Republican versus Democratic primary. We have two past the

23:43

post here, so they're all running on one ballot

23:46

in the top two, so the Democratic

23:48

party will go on after

23:50

March to win the election. So basically,

23:53

if it is Steve Garvey and any of

23:55

the Democrats, the odds are that Steve Garvey

23:57

will lose because it's California, which is overwhelmingly

24:00

democratic. If

24:03

it's shift and Katie,

24:05

or maybe Barbara Lee though I doubt

24:07

it, then you have a rip

24:09

roaring face ripping thing all the way to

24:12

November where independents and Republicans

24:14

will be the swing vote.

24:17

So the shift campaign would much rather

24:19

have Garvey because against

24:21

Katie Porter they know from their polling

24:24

that Republicans dislike shift more than

24:26

Porter simply because he was all

24:28

over TV for the you know

24:30

the hearings about Trump, or I thought he did a

24:32

good job, on the other hand Democrats

24:35

like that. So both

24:37

this is a weird campaign where

24:39

both Katie and Adam

24:41

are hoping that Garvey edges their Democratic

24:43

opponents out and is in second because

24:46

then the race is over a week

24:48

after the primary. Nobody

24:50

clearly won or lost. Katie

24:53

is the soundbite machine but

24:56

she has a rage vibe that I think is

24:58

a problem for her particularly in the second half

25:00

of the debate. She's just ticked off. She's awful,

25:02

awesome, you know she's

25:04

vulnerable to some criticism but she's better at the

25:06

soundbite. She's a better Democratic populist. She's better doing

25:09

the Elizabeth Warren stuff. I think shift's worried about

25:11

that. Shift is the senator

25:13

for senators job, you

25:15

know the thoughtful, the accomplished legislature and he

25:18

played one card in the debate you're gonna

25:20

hear a lot more of in the campaign

25:22

which is Speaker Nancy Pelosi who's

25:25

well liked by Democrats in California particularly in

25:27

San Francisco which is the jump ball because

25:30

the two members are both in Southern

25:32

California. They're on TV now fighting it

25:34

out where San Francisco media

25:37

market. That's the key territory. Anyway

25:39

Pelosi is beloved there and

25:41

Pelosi is for shift. As you can say I work

25:43

for both of them. Show horse, workhorse.

25:45

I'm with the workhorse Adam Schiff for Senate

25:48

and I think you're gonna hear a lot of that in the campaign.

25:50

I think shift has the edge but

25:52

you don't count out Katie's ability to

25:55

to work

25:57

the sound bites and be the angry Elizabeth Warren.

26:00

of a foreign populist, which they're votes for.

26:03

She did have, I think, the best

26:05

soundbite of the night, which is she said

26:08

that Steve Garvey, she said, once a Dodger,

26:10

always a Dodger, when he was asked who

26:13

he would vote for between Biden and Trump. And

26:15

he outright refused. I mean, he did a two-minute

26:17

filibuster where he just refused to answer the question.

26:19

And if you can't answer that question, it's like,

26:22

what are you doing? Well, yeah. He knows he's

26:24

in California and he doesn't want to do a

26:26

suicide run because Trump's going to get slaughtered here.

26:28

The problem with the baseball jokes is they all

26:30

have one. So they're all kind of landing with

26:32

a thud, but she got the first one out,

26:34

which was the advantage. Shift had one. I

26:37

think it's a swing and a miss. Get it? Yeah.

26:40

But anyway, we're seeing, I'll be interested to see how

26:42

Katie Porter wears. I'm also interested

26:45

to see shifts clobbering her in fundraising.

26:47

So how she does in the

26:49

next 20 days in fundraising if she

26:51

can be competitive statewide on television or

26:53

get beat two to one. Because this

26:55

is a big, big, big state where

26:58

if you're not on TV, you

27:00

have no prayer. Well, how dangerous

27:02

do you think it would be for Republicans

27:05

as far as the House is concerned if

27:07

Schiff and Porter end up as the top

27:09

two finishers in terms of drawing out hundreds

27:11

of thousands of more Democrats who otherwise wouldn't

27:14

see the point of coming out to vote

27:16

and instead seeing these

27:18

two on the ballot, drawing all these voters

27:20

out, and then seeing the down ballot impacts

27:22

as far as House races are concerned? Yeah,

27:25

it's more about House races. We don't have anything

27:27

competitive, but we have a couple of House races

27:29

that are competitive, mostly

27:31

in the Southern California metroplex where

27:34

a big Democratic turnout would be

27:36

good for Democrats. You

27:39

know, normally in presidential elections, the Democrats do

27:41

fairly well on turnout because their younger voters

27:43

show up. It's the off years where they

27:45

get slaughtered on turnout. But

27:48

the downside to the big

27:52

Porter versus Schiff styling garage general election is

27:54

it'll suck a lot of money from other

27:56

races around the country. You

27:58

know, I think if you were to ask Lee Peter Schumer

28:00

in the Senate, what he'd

28:02

like is a nice clean win in March. So

28:04

California is done for the Senate. They've locked in

28:07

a seat and then he

28:09

doesn't have a big nationalized California

28:11

race, pulling progressive money to her

28:14

and slightly less progressive money to him. We're

28:18

a seat. Right now, I'm of

28:20

the complete opposite mind. I think that if we

28:22

can get these two, I mean, as a Democrat,

28:25

if we can get two Democrats to go all

28:27

the way to November and bring out so many

28:29

more, like if it's Adam Schiff versus Steve Garvey,

28:31

the odds that someone is going to really make

28:33

the effort to leave their house in dark

28:36

blue California versus if it's Katie

28:38

Porter and Adam Schiff is

28:41

like astronomical. And so think about the impact

28:43

that will have for California's 26, for example.

28:45

I mean, there are house races out here

28:47

where the difference was like a thousand

28:49

votes and having two massively prominent Democrats

28:52

on the ballot in November is going

28:54

to have huge implications I think for

28:56

those house races. Yeah, you know,

28:58

it's a balancing thing like most things in politics.

29:01

D-Trip would probably like it. Oh,

29:03

they are going to be gutting each other. So

29:05

we're kind of see where that goes. Or

29:09

I think the center folks would rather not have $50

29:12

million bonfire of federal

29:14

dollars here in California for a seat

29:16

they're going to win anyway. Right. I

29:19

agree with that. I wish that people could

29:21

just – neither campaign is going to be

29:23

happy with this, but I wish people could

29:25

not donate but still be as engaged as

29:27

possible. Right, right. You know, it's always a

29:29

complicated calculus. Mike,

29:31

when do we pry the Republicanism

29:34

out of your iron grip? Like

29:36

when do you just come clean

29:38

and fully embrace the communist Marxist

29:40

waters that you've been dipping your

29:43

toes into and just, you

29:45

know, and just leave your party behind? Well,

29:48

that'll be hard to do. I mean, Trump's chased

29:50

me away from voting for a lot of his

29:52

kind of candidates, but I can always write in

29:54

Mitt Romney or John McCain. You know, I'm a

29:56

conservative. So the Maocap doesn't

29:59

fit too well. But to stop Trump,

30:01

I'm all for Joe Biden. Well, you know, the

30:03

people who are emboldened when Republicans

30:06

gain power, they're not the

30:08

elusive moderates out there. It's the extremists. It's

30:10

the Marjoteler Greens and the Lauren Boeberts and

30:12

the Jim Jordans. Those

30:15

people kind of use the moderate candidates

30:17

to siphon votes out of nice, moderate,

30:19

suburban Republican moms and dads. I'm not

30:21

a moderate. I'm a conservative. I mean,

30:23

we have cranks in the House who

30:26

I don't think are conservatives under good

30:28

Berke and definition. They're populist yo-yos. And

30:30

they're a problem. But in the

30:33

Senate, we still have regular Republican

30:35

conservatives who still have some power.

30:37

So I'm going to keep fighting

30:39

from within because on a policy basis,

30:41

I'm a lot more right than left. Aren't you worried

30:43

that when you when you cast your

30:45

ballots for the normal Republicans and we're

30:47

getting the lesson over and over that

30:49

it's not those people who actually exercise

30:51

power. You can give

30:53

your votes to those people, but then they

30:55

they immediately become like supplicants to the Marjoteler

30:58

Greens of the party. Well, I don't

31:00

know. I don't think she has any power. You

31:02

know, she has power to make noise.

31:05

Maybe in the House, you can kind of widen it

31:07

to the Freedom Caucus rather than her. Yeah,

31:10

look, it's tough. The problem is I'm

31:12

a fan of old John Stuart Mills

31:14

once said about UK politics. It's a depressing

31:16

choice between the evil party and the stupid

31:19

party. It used to be the

31:21

Dems were the evil party and we were the stupid

31:23

party. Now we're the evil party and they're the stupid

31:25

party. You know, AOC drives me

31:27

every bit as crazy as Marjoteler Green.

31:30

It was all men that she's not as

31:32

bad because she doesn't want to burn down

31:34

the Constitution as states. So that's a significant

31:36

note. But I can't stand the loony laughs.

31:38

Their policy destroys the people they want to

31:41

help. Well, one policy that I think that

31:43

you've been very receptive to is actually is

31:45

actually EVs. And I know that

31:48

you have a position that kind

31:50

of distances yourself from the rest of your party. Can

31:52

you speak on that for a moment? Yeah, no, thanks.

31:54

So I'm from Detroit. I'm a car nut. My

31:58

lifetime Car average. There's

32:00

probably six mpg com,

32:03

but. I. I fell

32:05

in love with electric vehicles for a

32:07

couple of quick reasons. One, they're just

32:09

they're great vehicles there. faster, quiet, they're

32:12

fun to drive to. They require less

32:14

parts, less maintenance, other more cost efficient

32:16

way to have mobility. They take less

32:18

people to put together which takes cost

32:20

out Now u a W doesn't like

32:22

that. but the reality is the world

32:24

is going electric and right now the

32:27

Chinese or out producing Us are are

32:29

selling us electric vehicles a to one.

32:31

This year they passed Japan as the

32:33

world's largest auto exporter. So. The

32:35

trend toward electrification worldwide is totally

32:37

true, and if you're environmentalist, there's

32:39

a lot of good benefits about

32:41

C O Two emissions. but I

32:44

have been heartbroken. Disease So many

32:46

republicans from Fox News, the senators,

32:48

even some centers I like constantly

32:50

trash me bees because it's partisan

32:52

politics and of Joe Biden like

32:54

something has to be bad even

32:56

when it's good. So. Being.

32:58

A campaign person I was gonna sit

33:00

around. I started an organization called Edi

33:02

politics.org and by the way I'm gonna

33:04

send you some of our cool Mertz

33:06

and were organizing the pushed back as

33:08

is all Sig a world of he

33:10

be driving republicans and we're going to

33:12

try to help the company's market better.

33:14

We just had a big pole. And

33:16

Republicans vs. Democrats over he these the find

33:19

out what the main spring is. Ah the

33:21

bottom line is there not seen as vehicles

33:23

are seen as a political statement and the

33:25

problem is when you make one political statement,

33:27

one side loves it but the other pushes

33:29

back. We. Gotta get back to selling

33:31

him as vehicles again cause I like to

33:33

save them. North American Auto industry I'm I

33:35

have Roy One China have an eighty percent

33:38

plus of the world auto market in all

33:40

those jobs are is a bad thing so

33:42

go to he be pollen.or take our quiz

33:44

dip myth vs back when we knocked down

33:46

all the fox news cramp a body these

33:48

and we have a lot of data they

33:51

earn and ways people can help. We.

33:53

Will gladly take you on that issue

33:55

even though I even though even despite

33:57

your lifelong affiliation with the Police party,

33:59

what woodland? The Dems have been much better

34:01

on EVs. I'll give it to them though oddly

34:03

the first research money goes back to George W.

34:05

Bush. The Republicans are stupid

34:07

about this and the more Republican

34:10

voters use their free market

34:12

intellect to try the better product,

34:15

I can tell you where you get a

34:17

pro-EV Republican. That's an EV who's actually driven

34:19

one and makes comparts. So yeah, I'm all

34:21

with you guys on that. Well, we'll

34:23

leave it there. Again for anybody just

34:25

tuning in right now, we're seeing Mike for

34:27

the first time. Really highly, highly recommend you

34:29

check out the Hacks on Tap podcast. It

34:31

is in my weekly rotation. With

34:34

that said, Mike, thank you so much for taking the time and

34:36

I'll talk to you soon. Thank you. I

34:38

really enjoy it. I hope to come back soon. We got to

34:40

get you on Hacks. Let me sober up Hacks for a run and see what I

34:42

can do. Thanks again

34:45

to Mike. That's it for this episode. Talk to you next

34:47

week. You've

34:49

been listening to No Lie with Brian

34:52

Tyler Cohen, produced by Sam Graber, music

34:54

by Wellesley, interviews captured and edited for

34:56

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34:58

recorded in Los Angeles, California. If

35:00

you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe in your

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