0:03

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts,

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Radio News.

0:20

Hello and welcome to another episode of the

0:22

All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

0:24

And I'm Jolle Wisenthal.

0:26

Joe, does it feel like we're at a turning point

0:28

of some sort? I feel like that's always

0:30

a dangerous question to ask on a podcast,

0:33

because the tendency is to call

0:35

turning points or say we're at, you know, the

0:37

beginning of some new structural

0:39

shift. Yeah, because that's kind of what everyone

0:42

wants to hear, Right, You.

0:44

Don't have been thinking about That's like super meta

0:46

and maybe beyond the scope of anything

0:49

that we talk about on a podcast. But just since

0:51

we're talking about big moments.

0:53

When I was a kid, probably my parents

0:55

thought that the future

0:58

would look very different when I'm an adult, you know. But

1:00

now I think that for my

1:03

kids the future will look so radically

1:05

different that that I

1:07

just can't imagine twenty or thirty years

1:09

from now anything being remotely

1:11

similar to it is today, due

1:13

to various things that we're seeing with tech and geopolitics

1:16

and things like that.

1:17

Particularly Ai, I don't know, back to the

1:19

future promised we'd have flying cars by

1:21

now, and I'm still waiting.

1:23

They did get video conference. I guess that's

1:25

too right, So that's one thing, but yes, you're right.

1:27

All right. Well, there's obviously

1:29

plenty that we could talk about when it comes to the

1:31

future, like what is realistic and

1:33

what is sort of pie in the sky thinking like

1:36

flying cars. I suspect we're not going to have

1:38

those for a while because of various reasons.

1:40

But one person we do like to speak to when

1:42

it comes to thinking big picture and

1:45

kind of talking about these potential

1:47

paradigm shifts is Steve Eisman.

1:49

Of course, he's been on the show a couple

1:51

of times. He's the managing director

1:53

at Newburger Berman and Steve,

1:56

thank you so much for coming back on all thoughts.

1:58

Thanks for having me again.

1:59

So big picture thoughts, what

2:01

are you thinking at the moment? The last time

2:03

we had you on, you were talking about

2:05

a paradigm shift as interest rates got higher,

2:08

And it seems like investors are starting

2:10

to ratchet down their expectations for cuts

2:12

right now, so we might actually get

2:14

that higher interest rate environment for longer.

2:18

You know, let's just start with the FED so we get

2:20

that out of the way as quickly as possible. I

2:23

have felt for a long time. The FED is extremely

2:25

insensitive to its own impact

2:28

on markets. You

2:30

know, last was it last week when Powell.

2:32

Spoke, So we're recording this April

2:35

second, but he spoke on for I'm.

2:37

Good, you know, when he said that

2:39

he thought that because rates are higher,

2:42

financial conditions are tight. That

2:45

was a little weird. I mean, right,

2:48

credit spreads are extremely narrow. I've

2:50

always felt that, like I said, the Fed's insensitive

2:53

to its own impact on the markets.

2:55

It's clearly Fed wants to cut rates. It

2:57

once seems to want to cut rates very very badly.

3:00

Why wants to cut rates so badly? I

3:02

don't understand in that they've engineered

3:05

something that's really pretty fantastic. You

3:08

know. Not only is there no soft landing, there

3:10

doesn't need to be any landing. And as far as

3:12

you know, the data that I can see, there

3:14

seems to be something of a reacceleration in the

3:16

economy right now. So why would you

3:19

cut rates? What's your rush? You

3:21

know? The actual What I would

3:23

say, even though I

3:25

think the FED is going to cut rates, the fear

3:28

that I think should be out there is that if they do cut

3:30

rates and be even more of resurgence in the economy

3:33

and there'd be a resurgence and inflation. So what's

3:36

why would you rush to take that risk?

3:38

I don't get it.

3:39

It's funny you start off. You started

3:41

off talking about financial conditions. Actually I

3:43

wrote about them a little bit more a little

3:45

bit this morning, and the question that I have in

3:48

my mind measures of financial

3:50

conditions are clearly loose,

3:52

right, so the stock market is basically at all

3:54

time highs and put into financial

3:57

conditions as you mentioned, credit spreads

3:59

are pretty tough, and then of course crypto,

4:01

which maybe you have thoughts about going to the moon. So

4:03

all kinds of measures of in liquid market

4:06

loosening. On the other hand, the IPO

4:09

window still hasn't totally reopened.

4:12

It's not obvious that private investment

4:15

is reaccelerating in some dramatic

4:17

way, hiring intentions. The

4:19

labor market continues to at least normalize.

4:22

It's not falling apart by any stretch, but it's

4:24

nowhere near where it was. You know

4:27

a couple of years ago. Are those tight credit

4:29

spreads and high stock prices translating

4:31

into the economic variables employment

4:34

and inflation that the federally cares about.

4:37

Inflation, I can say I think it's too early to

4:40

say what's happening there. I mean, the other

4:42

thing I could say is that from the companies that I

4:44

speak to on the industrial side, things

4:46

seem to have reaccelerated this year.

4:49

Orders it picked up, Supply chain problems

4:51

aren't as much of an issue. Nobody's

4:54

really talking about firing anybody, you

4:56

know. Is it perfect? Yeah? What's perfect?

4:59

Sure?

4:59

But things are pretty good. Yeah.

5:02

My framework for understanding this is

5:05

that the FED basically can look

5:07

through loose financial conditions

5:09

on the assumption that if it does build out

5:11

investment and a lot of the inflationary pressures

5:14

that we've seen have come about from supply

5:16

constraints, then it maybe is reducing

5:19

inflation longer term rather than leading

5:21

to additional inflationary pressures.

5:23

But one thing I have to imagine

5:26

they might not be huge fans of is

5:28

crypto. Crypto's back, right.

5:31

I think bitcoins down as we're recording

5:33

this, but it surged to a new all

5:35

time high. I don't think anyone was

5:38

really expecting crypto to come back in

5:40

this way when rates are you

5:43

still at the highest level in DEPA.

5:45

That's because it has nothing to do with rates. Okay,

5:48

so well, let's backtrack first. Sure, here's

5:50

my big uber picture. You look, in

5:52

bad times, people focus on

5:55

balance sheets and credit quality, and good

5:58

times they focus on stories. And

6:00

there are three I

6:02

think great stories of our time right

6:05

now, and those are AI and

6:07

everything having to do with it, infrastructure,

6:10

and crypto. And I believe in the first two

6:12

and I don't believe in the third, the thing

6:14

about crypto. And

6:16

here's me getting on my soapbox, so everybody

6:18

can take this with the grainess whole. I have no position in

6:20

crypto, and I never have. But

6:24

you know, there are two issues with respect to crypto. Number

6:26

one, is it a currency? And number

6:28

two, if it's a currency, why should you

6:30

own it? So let's bypass

6:33

issue number one because that's kind of philosophical

6:36

and say, okay, it's a currency, why should you

6:38

own it? And the people who are advocates of

6:40

crypto will say exactly the same thing, which

6:43

is that there's a problem with FIA

6:45

currencies, which is government currencies.

6:47

There's been too much of it, there's too much bonduitions,

6:50

there's too much debt, blah blah blah.

6:52

And so if you want to hedge against

6:55

FIA currency by crypto, in

6:57

other words, crypto is like digital gold.

7:01

If that's the case and the theory

7:03

is correct, then how should crypto

7:05

act. Crypto should do well

7:08

when on days like today where

7:10

people are starting to worry about inflation again, interest

7:12

rates are up and the market is down

7:14

and NASDAK is down, and crypto

7:16

should do poorly when interest rates are lower,

7:19

nobody cares about inflation, and Nvidia

7:21

is up twenty five percent. And

7:23

how does crypto actually act. It acts

7:26

exactly opposite to its own thesis, which

7:28

is the correlation between crypto and NASDAK

7:31

is very, very very high. So

7:33

what does that say to me? That crypto is

7:35

just another way that people like to speculate on because

7:38

they like to speculate. That's all. That's all.

7:40

That's its only use. That

7:42

and money.

7:43

Laundering, which

7:45

is a use. Okay, So the three

7:47

big stories of our time that people are

7:49

into AI, infrastructure,

7:52

and crypto, two of which you

7:54

believe in. We know you don't believe

7:56

in one of them. Let's go to infrastructure

7:59

for a second, because you mentioned that you talked

8:01

to a lot of industrial companies. Companies

8:03

that would be theoretically, I assume prime

8:06

to take advantage of a lot of the

8:08

building out that's going on. So what are they saying

8:11

to you specifically right now? I mean you

8:13

mentioned that they're not talking about job cuts,

8:15

But where are we in the broader

8:17

infrastructure cycle Because we saw all of this money,

8:20

we saw these various bill We're.

8:22

At the beginning. So here's my soapbox

8:25

again. I think that there are several

8:28

sort of themes that weave its

8:30

way into infrastructure. So one is on shoring.

8:33

You know, the world spent forty years

8:36

creating global supply

8:38

chain that was incredibly efficient

8:42

and inexpensive and deflationary

8:45

and turned out we all

8:47

learned during COVID also very brittle. So

8:50

you're a CEO. You got a free

8:53

pass the first time. You know, if

8:55

you had supply chain problems, nobody's going to blame

8:57

you that you had supply chain problems because of pandemic.

9:00

Nobody predicted you get one

9:02

buy that apple. If for some

9:04

reason you have a supply chain problem, again,

9:06

that's on you. You get fired

9:08

for that. So companies are

9:11

bringing parts of their supply chain back to the United

9:13

States. That's a ten year story

9:15

and we're like in year two. That's

9:18

them one theme. Two

9:20

is data centers, which is

9:22

AI offset offshoot, but it

9:24

also has industrial o implications because

9:27

number one, the GPUs that Nvidia and AMD

9:29

is selling utilize three times more

9:31

electricity than a CPU, and they're

9:33

also incredibly hotter, so they

9:35

require a lot more of the whole cooling systems

9:38

that you have to put into those data centers and

9:41

brings us to theme three, which is improvement

9:43

in the grid. Now, the grid needed

9:46

improvement before because of all the

9:48

pressure that we're putting on it from electrification,

9:50

etc. But now that you add

9:52

the GPUs on top of it, the pressure on the grid

9:55

is even higher. So you

9:57

know all the industrial companies that deal with

9:59

utility that are spending a ton of money to improve

10:01

their grids. That's also

10:04

a very long term theme and also pretty much in its

10:06

early stages. And the last part is greenification,

10:09

which has been a long standing theme, but it's going to keep

10:11

going. And you take all four of those

10:13

boxes and you turbocharge

10:15

them. By the fact that the United States

10:17

has not had an industrial policy in anyone's

10:19

lifetime, and it has one now. The

10:22

combination of the IRA and the IIJA

10:26

adds up to about one point two trillion

10:28

dollars over ten years, So that'll turbocharge

10:31

all the four themes that it just spoke about. That's

10:34

why infrastructure is so interesting.

10:35

So I remember one of the last times

10:38

we spoke to you, you mentioned a specific

10:40

company, Quantus Services, which

10:42

does electrification of the grids something

10:44

like that.

10:45

It's an engineering construction company,

10:47

and one of the things that it does is if

10:50

utility wants to build a new plant, et cetera,

10:52

Quanta builds it for.

10:53

Them, and that one is up. I think around

10:55

forty percent since we spoke to you, which

10:57

has been like less than a year or so.

11:00

Are those the kind of companies that you're trying to find?

11:03

Yes, they're those. Then

11:05

there are some, you know, materials companies

11:08

that are going to be building the roads, the

11:10

bridges, et cetera, and you

11:12

know, everything basically that surrounds that world.

11:14

Would you do pure commodity plays?

11:16

I mean, copper was a big one.

11:18

I don't do commodities. These are the things I don't do. I

11:20

don't do commodities. I don't do oil,

11:23

I don't trade currency. I don't trade commodities

11:25

and do any of that stuff. I just buy stocks.

11:27

Say more about some of these because everyone

11:29

knows in video, but you do see this in

11:32

the sell side research that's coming out,

11:34

which is that everyone is looking for

11:37

these secondary and tertiary

11:39

plays on AI and so quantus

11:41

services. Congratulations on the good

11:44

pick there, But what are the other types

11:46

of companies that you're looking

11:48

at as part of this in

11:51

areas like cooling, which is obviously

11:53

going to be huge, or you know, electrical

11:55

component We got ism manufacturing

11:57

out yesterday, transformers can

12:00

you to be in shortage for basically three straight

12:02

years? What is your process and

12:04

how are you going about identifying the

12:06

secondary and tertiary maybe

12:09

AI data center plays out there.

12:12

Well, I mean there are it's

12:14

you know, it's all the offshoots of the four boxes

12:16

that I mentioned. There is the cooling part, there's

12:18

the grid construction part that

12:20

there are the utilities that are more

12:23

on the green side than on the not green side.

12:26

I mean, there's just a lot to do. I

12:28

mean, the other thing that people are that we're

12:30

trying to figure out is, Okay, there's

12:33

Nvidia, there's a MD There's

12:35

there's Microsoft, you know, one of our newer

12:37

stocks. There's Oracle, you

12:40

know, anyone who has

12:43

a huge database of

12:46

anything consumer businesses. You

12:48

know, in the world of AI is probably sitting on a gold

12:50

mine. Whether the question is whether they can monetize

12:53

it. And then then the next level,

12:56

which I don't have an answer to, is

12:58

Okay, everybody's trying to invent apps.

13:01

Whose apps are going to do well? Although

13:03

my guess is that one of the bigger beneficiaries

13:06

is probably going to be Apple, because

13:09

at the end of the day, the consumer I

13:11

can't possibly predict what apps are going

13:13

to do well. But let's assume they're a bunch

13:15

of them, and let's assume that a

13:17

bunch of them are for

13:20

the consumer. I have no idea what

13:22

those are, but let's assume that they exist, they

13:24

are created, people are going to

13:26

use them on their phone, so AI

13:29

is going to have to be on the phone, which

13:31

so you know, assume what I'm

13:33

hearing is that Apple is talking to every AI

13:36

creator in the world to say, you know,

13:38

come on our platform because

13:40

we'll make your app more efficient. They'll

13:42

probably roll something out in June when they have their

13:46

I don't know if it's an investor day or tech day, but

13:48

you know, Apple potentially eventually is going

13:51

to be one of the bigger beneficiaries in the second wave.

13:53

Speaking of waves, This is one of the reasons we wanted

13:56

to talk to you. How do you separate

13:58

the hype around owned AI

14:01

versus the reality the

14:03

real opportunity there because we are

14:05

seeing this dynamic in the market now where

14:08

you know, companies are just mentioning AI

14:10

in their press release. Right, everyone's doing

14:12

AI, everyone's looking into AI. And

14:15

again, one of the reasons we like talking

14:17

to you is because you are well known

14:20

for the due diligence that you do on

14:22

various things, most famously on the housing

14:24

market before two thousand and eight.

14:26

So how are you separating the sort of

14:29

fact from fiction here?

14:31

Well, I mean, the facts

14:33

are that AI at this point is really

14:36

only benefiting a very small

14:38

number of companies, most of

14:40

whom were very, very very large. So

14:44

that's we have focused our attention on everything

14:46

else at this point seems to me to be

14:49

hype or potential, and

14:52

we don't own those companies. We own the

14:54

ones where what's obvious. After

14:56

that, we'll sing.

14:57

It, you

15:14

know. Tracy asked about the due diligence process,

15:16

and I sort of want to keep driving at this because

15:18

you mentioned one company, but like, there

15:20

are a bunch of companies out there that probably

15:23

sell some component that

15:25

is useful for utilities. There's

15:27

probably various companies out there that sell

15:30

cables that connect those and video chips

15:32

from one to another, and there's various

15:34

companies that sell cooling solutions,

15:36

et cetera. And so in that due diligence

15:39

process, like how do you start that, Like what is your

15:42

sort of open up the window of like what

15:44

does it look like the process of identifying

15:46

them?

15:47

Well in terms of let's talk on the infrastructure.

15:49

Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's the part of it.

15:51

I have narrowed

15:54

down that world

15:57

to where I think it's significant to about

15:59

eighty company Okay, And

16:04

of those eighty, I

16:08

would say about thirty

16:12

are very very interesting. The

16:14

other fifty or not so interesting

16:16

at this point?

16:18

Is that a function of when it's the eighty

16:20

or the thirty? Is that about talking

16:23

to people in the space and saying, hey, what products do

16:25

you use?

16:25

No, I mean it's I mean, I've been

16:27

doing research on this for the last two years.

16:29

Yeah, so what does that look like.

16:31

It's a lot of work, It's a lot of reading, you

16:33

know, it's going to a lot of meetings. You know.

16:36

The area that I find

16:38

is not interesting, for example, is

16:41

residential solar Resisolar,

16:44

I think is just an area that did

16:46

very, very well during COVID, but was actually

16:48

a major beneficiary of zero rates

16:51

because people who put a you know,

16:53

it costs about thirty thousand dollars to put a solar

16:55

system on your roof, and ninety nine percent

16:57

of people finance it. And

17:00

when they were financing it during COVID, they were financing

17:02

it at three percent, and today, if they need to finance

17:04

it, they're going to need to fancy it at around nine And

17:06

one thing I learned in great school is that nine is a lot

17:08

more than three, and so sales

17:10

are negative. Now how long they'll stay

17:12

negative, I don't know, but I'm

17:15

not interested in speculating about it, because the fundamentals

17:17

right now are poor. On the other

17:19

hand, you know, just from a

17:21

pure fundamental perspective, some of the

17:24

solar panel companies that sell stuff to utility

17:27

they're doing quite well.

17:28

So the other thing that's happened since we last spoke

17:30

to you is that we are about ten

17:33

or twelve months closer to a

17:35

presidential election in the US.

17:38

Does the infrastructure thesis take

17:40

a hit if we were to get

17:42

Trump in office?

17:43

This perception is reality, so the

17:46

perception would be that

17:49

a Republican administration would be

17:51

less positive on gratification, and so

17:53

maybe some of those stocks would take a hit because

17:56

of rhetoric. I think the reality

17:59

is number one, and the states that benefit

18:01

for most of this stuff are actually red states, including

18:04

on the solar side. And number

18:07

two. You know, one of the reasons

18:09

why US solar

18:11

panel companies, like a coupley like First

18:14

Solar doing so well is because there are

18:16

major tariffs against Chinese

18:18

solar producers. Those tariffs

18:20

were created by President Trump, not by

18:22

President Biden. President Biden just reaffirmed

18:25

them. So at the end of the day, I don't think it's

18:27

gonna matter, although there'll be a lot

18:29

of noise.

18:31

On the near shoring. You know, this is

18:33

one of those things where it's always

18:35

hard, at least from my perspective

18:38

to disentangle like what's talk. You

18:40

know, you see a lot of like there might be like a McKinsey

18:43

white paper about the benefits of near shoring,

18:45

and it's like, okay.

18:46

But oh I don't care about stuff.

18:47

Yeah no, no, I know, I know. So I'm trying to like understand

18:50

like the what are they doing specifically

18:52

the companies, the industrial companies

18:55

that you're talking to, what actually

18:57

is being built either in the US.

19:00

You know it is a long like, you know, two

19:02

hour conversation kind of Look, there's

19:04

some factories that are being built here. There's some chip factories

19:06

being bilit here. There's some other kinds of factories

19:08

being built here. You know they

19:11

All you need to do is listen to let's say the

19:13

Eaton conference call when they report, to understand

19:16

that they're doing very very well, and they'll do very

19:18

well for a long time because of those

19:20

trends. Eating corp Yes, etn

19:23

etn'. I don't own

19:25

it, but I done a lot of research on it.

19:28

You can't own everything. And

19:30

they're a company saying what, that's a company

19:32

that does electrification for factories.

19:34

Yeah, this stalks on well, and they're saying what specifically

19:36

on.

19:36

Their calls, they got a lot of orders.

19:38

Okay, that's what they're saying.

19:41

I'm looking at those share Eating Corporation,

19:43

POC manufacturers engineered products for

19:45

industrial vehicle construction, commercial on

19:48

aerospace markets.

19:49

Or take a company right products, fluid

19:51

connect Take a company like a

19:53

newer company. It's not it's an older company,

19:55

but it's a new company listen called CRH

19:58

which is a materials company. The

20:00

headquarters is in Ireland, but seventy five percent

20:02

of the business in the United States. They

20:05

do roads, cement,

20:07

all that stuff. And on the commercial

20:10

side, things are picking up, and they're

20:12

partially picking up because of the IRA

20:14

and the IgA. Money just starting to be

20:16

spent. And one of the things that was sent on

20:19

the conference call by the CFO was

20:21

that this is this is now golden

20:23

age for infrastructure. I

20:26

never heard anybody say I call this a golden age

20:28

for their industry, but he said it.

20:32

Yeah, some of the stocks they look a little

20:34

ai ish when you look at the charts.

20:36

Street line yeah, straight line up.

20:38

So CRCH is funny because this

20:41

is a perfect example of why the thesis

20:43

that markets are efficient is sometimes nonsense.

20:46

So CRCH was a Irish

20:49

listed UK listed company with

20:51

seventy five percent of its businesses in the US.

20:54

So materials companies in Europe

20:57

sell it literally half the multiples

20:59

of US companies for

21:03

whatever reason. And of

21:05

course all the cell side analysts who covered

21:07

CRCH were European analysts, and

21:09

the people who cover Volcan materials, let's

21:11

say, are US analysts. So

21:13

crch and September relisted in

21:16

the US under thesis said hey,

21:18

we might get a better valuation because we're seventy

21:20

five percent US, and all of a sudden

21:22

people are And that's what we started to buy it

21:25

because we said to ourselves, this

21:28

thing sells it less than half the multiple

21:30

of its US comps because it has

21:33

a different audience.

21:34

That's so funn that's like cell side analyst arbitrage.

21:36

That's exactly what, exactly right, it was cell side

21:39

analyst arbitrage, and all of a sudden you

21:41

had US analysts pick it up and say, wait

21:44

a second, this is seventy five percent US. What am

21:46

I missing? Huh?

21:47

So one thing that comes up in infrastructure

21:50

conversations is this idea of

21:52

crowding out. So the government

21:54

is spending billions and billions of dollars through

21:57

various programs on building out infrastructure,

21:59

I identifying new opportunities,

22:02

and you know, we speak to people like Jiggershaw

22:04

from the Department of Energy's Loan

22:06

Office program about how he makes

22:08

his investments as a private

22:10

investor. Do you ever feel like you're

22:12

competing with the government in this area

22:15

in things like renewables or green energy,

22:17

or innation.

22:18

I mean, I don't do private investing, so

22:20

it's not my problem. I just do

22:23

public equities.

22:24

Okay, But as a non government

22:27

investor, do you feel like it's harder

22:29

to identify opportunities because the government

22:31

is in the mix now more than they used

22:33

to be, or.

22:34

It's just another part of the story.

22:35

Huh, how do you take it into account?

22:38

They're spending money just trying to figure out who's benefiting.

22:40

Just follow the money, follow the money.

22:43

On electrification, you mentioned the

22:45

grid, and there seems to be this incredibly

22:47

wide consensus that the grid

22:50

is not currently sufficient.

22:52

That is what in Silicon Valley and the

22:55

tech world. That's what they're worried about. They're all

22:57

talking, they're all petrified of it.

22:59

Who's going to pay for it?

23:00

Is?

23:00

This was not something the IRA

23:02

spent a lot of money in a lot of areas, but

23:04

it did not really do anything

23:07

for the grid itself. And there

23:09

is even a lot of acknowledgement.

23:10

Well, there's

23:12

five hundred billion dollars in

23:15

tax credits

23:17

for green energy

23:20

stuff. Sure, absolutely, And so you

23:23

know a company Lightinexterra, which

23:25

is will build let's say a solar field,

23:28

gets a tax credit to do it. Yes,

23:31

so that does that does help.

23:33

Then there's the lines and the wires, and

23:35

so there's all these questions about regulations,

23:38

and there's the question about money, et cetera.

23:40

Who's paying for basically

23:42

the I mean you mentioned generation

23:45

on the solar field side, who's paying

23:48

for the lines that will

23:50

connect all these solar fields?

23:51

All the utilities are doing that. Okay, So if

23:53

you look at the end of every year, when

23:55

all the utilities are put their fourth quarter, at

23:58

least most of them, they

24:00

put out their three year

24:03

capex budget projections, so

24:06

they only comes out once a year. So we just went

24:08

through that period. So of

24:10

the twenty companies

24:13

that are very good

24:15

Newburger Bermam Utility Analyst covers,

24:18

the average increase in the three year

24:20

capex budget is twenty percent.

24:23

Over the last year over the last year.

24:25

In other words, a three year combined

24:28

forward is twenty percent higher

24:30

than than last year's three year

24:32

budget. That's basically twenty percent because you're adding

24:34

one more year or something like that.

24:37

That's a lot of money, you know, and it's

24:39

been going up and up and up and up and up every single

24:42

year because utilities keep spending

24:44

money to improve their grids.

24:46

What's the investment opportunity there though?

24:48

Do you buy the actual utilities or

24:51

do you buy the sort of like peripheration.

24:52

You can buy some of the utilities, you

24:55

know, Unfortunately, utilities are very interest

24:57

rate sensitive stocks. So and you know, in

24:59

a day life today, probably I'm guessing

25:01

because rates or op utilities will go down.

25:04

But the market opens in two minutes.

25:09

But I think some of

25:11

the utilities that are more on the greenish side

25:14

are an interesting opportunity.

25:16

So you've been looking at the infrastructure

25:18

space for two years now, as you mentioned,

25:22

what was the surprising thing you learned

25:24

or how does this particular industry

25:26

vary from other areas

25:29

that you have looked at previously.

25:31

I think the big change is that if

25:34

you take all the eighty companies, most

25:38

of them are what would traditionally be

25:40

considered very cyclical

25:42

companies, very traditional cyclical,

25:45

cyclical companies with no

25:47

good secular story

25:50

other than how's the economy doing. And

25:53

for the first time and since I can remember,

25:56

this whole group now has a real secular story.

25:58

You know, not that they're not sick, they are cyclical,

26:01

but they have secular tailwinds that

26:03

they've never really had before, and those tailwinds

26:05

are going to last quite a long time.

26:07

That's the change the xcel

26:10

u E t F has opened. It's down a

26:12

little bit, but down about a tenth of a percent. There

26:14

you go. You can count that. Count

26:16

that count for me. Yeah, count

26:19

that as a w So. Sticking

26:22

on this theme of the grid

26:24

and electrification, actually

26:26

you mentioned oh now it's up, it's

26:28

up, so I'm taking it all. Okay,

26:32

now it's flat.

26:33

Well, you know what they say about our business. Peacock today,

26:35

feather duster tomorrow.

26:37

That's a good one. No, this is the question I want

26:39

to ask those three year projections

26:41

that the utilities are coming up with,

26:43

and you sort of talk about this shift from cyclical

26:46

industries to secular, how did those

26:48

three year projections compare us a

26:50

five years ago and no one was talking about

26:52

AI and no one was talking about the elect

26:54

or very.

26:55

I wish I wrot my charge, okay, and I don't have my

26:57

chart, but my guess is that

27:00

the cap the three year CAPEX budget today

27:02

versus five years ago, it's probably

27:04

fifty percent higher at least. Yeah.

27:07

This is something that Jiggershah who Tracy

27:09

mentioned, has talked about which is then basically for

27:12

the first time and forever

27:14

actual there's growth,

27:17

and then demand which there basically wasn't before.

27:19

Correct.

27:20

Wait, can I ask something slightly off topic,

27:23

but I think is of interest. So

27:27

we recently had the sentencing of

27:29

Sam Bankman freed, and

27:32

he was the subject of a Michael

27:34

Lewis book, as were you in a

27:36

very different capacity. Have you heard from Michael

27:38

Lewis at all? Do you keep in touch with him?

27:40

We haven't spoken in a couple of years now.

27:42

Did you follow the SPF trial very

27:45

marginally?

27:45

I have really an opinion about it.

27:47

Did you read the book?

27:48

I did not read the book.

27:49

Okay, this isn't a very interesting line.

27:51

I like that was a good line of questioning,

27:54

Tracy.

27:54

I try.

27:55

It had the potential, had.

27:56

The potential to go somewhere. Unfortunately

27:59

it's not going on. The guest shot

28:01

it down.

28:01

Yeah, all right. So

28:03

I hear all this stuff about excitement about

28:06

data centers, and as far as I can tell, like

28:08

part of the play is investing

28:10

in I guess data center reads something

28:12

like that, Well they're only two.

28:14

Yeah, right?

28:15

Or you invest in like HVAC

28:17

and the companies that do the cooling around them.

28:20

Yeah, so how do you actually

28:22

play that thesis? That's what I don't get.

28:25

Well, I mean, like I said, you can own

28:27

everything, So I mean, I'm not gonna talk about

28:29

what I have a position at these things. You know, Verdive is

28:32

the sort of the pure play to

28:34

sell cooling stuff into data

28:36

centers. The stock has gone stratispheric.

28:39

You know, the multiple is really high, so you're

28:42

playing there's a lot of risk in that,

28:45

not that the fundamentals are bad. Equin

28:47

X and Digital Realty are a more

28:49

steady eddy kind of play. You know,

28:51

what you're dealing with is that the

28:54

whole AI story

28:57

is coming and so the demand

28:59

is going to go up, but you're still dealing

29:01

with CAPEX budgets having come down in tech,

29:05

so the growth is still

29:07

not great or as good as

29:09

people would hope, but it's coming. So

29:11

that that's seen and yang on the data centers

29:13

and they are only two of them.

29:15

One of the things that we've seen with data

29:17

centers, and I think it was a

29:19

few weeks ago, there were some headlines

29:22

about Microsoft wanting to have on

29:24

site nuclear power generation and we've

29:26

talked a little bit about on this show

29:28

about the hope the promise of small

29:31

modular reactors, which haven't

29:33

really taken off, but maybe

29:35

that could be a solution for some

29:37

of these huge CAPEX data. Have you

29:39

looked at nuclear at all?

29:41

I haven't looked at nuclear. The regulatory

29:43

situation there is just so complicated, you

29:46

know. The one kind of I think it was a Constellation Energy

29:48

is the utility that's done incredibly well because

29:51

it has nuclear, but it's

29:53

not creating, as far as I know, more

29:56

nuclear plants. It's just that the value of its existing

29:58

nuclear plants have gone up a lot.

30:00

That is a nice looking stock. On the other hand,

30:03

New Scale

30:05

who's tickers literally SMR

30:08

standing for small modular reactors, That

30:10

stock has not done so well, though it did get a pop.

30:12

I guess on that Microsoft headline.

30:15

It is interesting. One of the things that's sort

30:17

of emerging from those conversation is

30:19

even though we're talking about new technologies

30:22

and things like that, a lot of the benefits

30:24

seem to be accruing to the

30:26

biggest players in the market. So like

30:28

the big companies, I don't think this time

30:30

last year anyone would have expected Microsoft

30:33

to emerge as a leader in

30:35

AI, and yet that's exactly what's

30:37

happened. Is that what people should be focused

30:40

on, Like, who's going to dominate these CAPEX

30:42

heavy tech plays.

30:44

It's going to be the guys with the money and the like

30:46

existing connections.

30:48

I mean, that's two parts to this. There's no question

30:50

at this point the dominant players are the

30:52

big boys and they're going to

30:54

be spending the money. And then you know,

30:56

they'll be interesting smaller companies that create

30:59

apps, and we have no idea

31:01

who those are at this point. None one day they'll

31:03

show up on your phone.

31:05

Something I'm curious about with the data center

31:07

reads is that their reads. I

31:09

mean, I'm sure, I know they talk about the AI

31:12

opportunity and the demand

31:14

for compute that's going to in theoretic

31:16

theoretically keep exploding for years.

31:19

But on the other hand, like they're not Google,

31:21

they're not Amazon with AWS,

31:25

they're not in Nvidia. Is there a risk

31:27

that like they just can't compete

31:29

with the sort of like specialized, more

31:31

tech forward companies that are at the very cutting

31:33

edge of this.

31:35

I mean, you know, the hyperscalers

31:38

want to build their own data centers, but

31:41

you know, an Equinex for example, services

31:43

everybody who's not a hyperscaler,

31:46

So they will do really

31:48

well when all the apps that are

31:50

going to be created get created and people need

31:52

to put their stuff in the cloud, they'll do it through equinex.

31:55

So it really Digital Realty is more of a hyperscaler.

32:14

Can you see more about Oracle? For a long time

32:17

I sort of thought of that. They always seem

32:19

to be straddling in my mind where

32:21

it's like, and I don't know that much

32:23

about the company, but they always seem to be sort of

32:25

on the cusp of like, are they in the

32:28

category of the hyperscalers. Are

32:30

they sort of a legacy software database

32:33

business that you know, well, they.

32:35

Are legacy software database business that's

32:37

moving to the cloud. Yes, they're an AI play.

32:40

You know. The problem with the stock has been that every couple

32:42

of quarters they have a really bad quarter and they say

32:45

sorry by

32:47

this most right, But in this most recent

32:49

quarter it seems to have at least for now gotten their

32:51

act together.

32:52

And what's working for them.

32:55

You know, the demand because of

32:57

AI or moving stuff into the cloud,

32:59

to move their database into the cloud, seems to

33:01

be increasing. Their problem, they

33:03

say, is that they haven't been able to buy enough chips

33:06

to satisfy the demand. You

33:08

know, when you think about that, that's probably it's

33:10

a better problem to have than the alternative. And

33:13

they seem to be getting their act together, so

33:16

you know, they finally announced a good quarter and people got

33:18

excited about it, which is why the stock finally did

33:20

well. That's a more recent purchase of ours.

33:23

Have you tried any of the AI chatbots

33:26

yet? Chat gpt, you're

33:28

too old? You know you can make you can make comic

33:30

books on some of them.

33:32

Yes, that you should make a comic book on a

33:34

chat chat Joe.

33:35

I didn't realize Steve's a comic book fan.

33:38

Yes, so is there what's the comic book play?

33:43

There's no comic book investing plan that I

33:45

know of comic You know, the comic bit is a small.

33:47

Business, but you're really into comic books totally.

33:49

I own the one of the largest digital comic book collections

33:51

in the world.

33:52

What does it mean?

33:54

What is that.

33:57

Way?

33:58

What is it?

33:59

Instead of buying a physical book,

34:02

you now read your book on your kindle. So

34:05

comic books became the same thing. There was an

34:08

app called Comicsology where you would

34:10

buy your comic on Comicsology

34:12

and you read it on your iPad, and

34:14

Amazon bought it, and so my

34:16

comic book collection is now in my kindle.

34:19

So the size of my comic book collection, I'm

34:21

very proud to say, as of this morning, was ten

34:23

eight hundred and sixty three comics, on which

34:26

I have read every single one, for real, for

34:28

real, I'm

34:31

doing this since twenty twelve.

34:34

You know, I imagine, like, I don't know, I

34:37

mean, what's the attraction,

34:39

what's the attraction spending so much of your time

34:42

here in life?

34:43

I like to read.

34:44

I read a lot of books, read non

34:46

comic books.

34:48

I read a tremendous number of books, books,

34:51

nonfiction and fiction, and

34:53

I've always enjoyed reading comics, and the

34:55

comics have actually gotten very, very sophisticated

34:58

in terms of literature, and

35:00

I enjoy reading them.

35:02

What's your favorite?

35:03

Oh, that's easy. The greatest comic book ever

35:05

written is Sandman Oh by Neil

35:08

gam Yeah.

35:09

I used to have a Sandman themed

35:11

tarot card deck for some reason,

35:14

even though I know.

35:14

The first season on Netflix was actually

35:17

quite good.

35:17

What's it about? I don't know anything about.

35:19

Salmon is the god of dreams.

35:20

My son is into Spider Man, so I'm

35:22

trying to like bond with him by like getting

35:25

him.

35:25

I could write a dissertation on Spider Man.

35:27

Oh literally, what would.

35:29

You actually have a little might have a literary

35:31

theory of Spider Man.

35:32

Good, tell me this. I need some stuff to like bond

35:34

with my son over this.

35:36

Well, you should get your son to read the newer

35:38

Spider Man who's called Miles

35:40

Morales. Oh yeah, he loves Lyles Miles.

35:43

So my literary theory on Spider Man is that

35:45

Peter Parker was actually Jewish.

35:49

Metaphor keep going,

35:51

see here's why.

35:51

So first of all, the guy who created him, Stanley is

35:54

Jewish or was Jewish.

35:56

Who is Peter Parker? So Peter Parker

35:59

is raised by his elderly,

36:01

kindly aunt

36:04

who looks like your Jewish grandmother. He

36:09

marries the girl next

36:11

door, who's who's

36:14

the gorgeous non Jewish girls

36:16

every Jewish boys fantasy, and

36:19

and and he and he's consumed by

36:21

he's a science geek nerd. And

36:23

he's consumed by a sense of guilt and social responsibility.

36:26

So who is that? That's that Jewish kid?

36:29

This is this that's my literary theory. I've had it

36:31

for a very long time.

36:33

Do you think Superman is Jewish.

36:35

Definitely not, absolutely not,

36:38

although he was created by Jewish

36:40

guys.

36:41

Yeah, because I thought he was Jewish because

36:43

some of the other names of his like relatives,

36:46

and I don't Again, I'm not a big comic person, but

36:48

like they have sort of I thought they sounded

36:50

sort of Niskay, you're way

36:52

off.

36:53

Okay, I'm

36:55

desperately trying to think of some sort of finance

36:57

or markets related.

36:58

Comic book, some way to bring this.

37:02

We could just talk about comic books.

37:04

Well, the only thing you could bring it up to is I

37:06

have no opinion on Disney, Okay,

37:08

but I can tell you what I think is wrong with the Marvel comic

37:10

book movies.

37:11

Tell us Disney owns.

37:14

Disney owns Marvel, and that's been a big source of

37:16

their profitability. So I think the

37:18

problem with Marvel is that

37:20

they've lost their story. And

37:22

they are two parts of this. So part

37:24

one was they had a great story. It

37:27

was a very complicated story where

37:29

the villain only got revealed years

37:31

after they started the whole process. You

37:33

know, it was multiple stories with tangents,

37:35

but in the end all wolve it's way back into the

37:37

last two movies. And then it

37:39

was over, and they

37:41

have not been able to find a new story,

37:43

and they've been basically floundering because

37:46

they don't have one. And the other major

37:48

problem, which is even more serious than the first,

37:50

is that there's

37:53

a concept in comics called the trinity.

37:56

So in DC it's Superman, Batman,

37:58

and Wonder Woman. That's the core, And

38:01

in Marvel it's Captain America, Thor and

38:04

Iron Man. And at the end of the last

38:06

Marvel comic, iron Man's dead. Captain

38:08

America is over ninety years old, and

38:11

unfortunately, since then, Thor has been made into a

38:13

comedic joke. So you've lost

38:15

your trinity. So even if you had a story,

38:17

nobody, I don't who's going to care because because

38:19

people care about those three characters with anything

38:21

else and they're gone, can't make

38:24

thesis.

38:24

They you just start the whole thing over. Well, you can read both

38:26

Spider.

38:27

Man, but you know you have to get new, Uh,

38:29

you have to start for fresh. I don't know if they're willing to do

38:31

that yet.

38:32

This is such a refreshing, interesting

38:35

take. We could just talk about this because I do

38:37

know like as someone who I kind

38:39

of like going to the movies, but unlike you,

38:41

I was never a big comic book reader during

38:43

that sort of Marvel era of movies,

38:46

when it just seemed like the only movies that

38:48

were in the theaters were just these endless superhero

38:50

movies. I just like totally tuned down, and

38:53

so I was there religiously.

38:55

Yeah.

38:55

So, but I for one was like kind of

38:58

I am relieved and sort of the

39:00

idea of Hollywood's are going post

39:02

superhero and maybe making movies

39:04

again like Oppenheimer with normal

39:06

people.

39:07

By the way, Dune Part two was very good.

39:09

I've been meaning to.

39:10

I haven't seen it yet.

39:11

No spoilers, I haven't seen

39:13

it yet either, but I don't know. I for one

39:15

am excited about a sort of post superhero.

39:18

That's that's fine. I'm just talking about the problem with Marvelers.

39:21

Yeah, but it's

39:23

but it's a big connect

39:25

to Disney.

39:26

But right, but it's connected.

39:27

Right.

39:27

So it's like these stories have just gotten tired

39:29

for people because there's nowhere to go for them.

39:32

Well, you you need a new

39:34

story, you need and they haven't found one,

39:36

you know. So if I go back, you know, and

39:39

I'll show you how into this. I Am Loki.

39:41

Season three was terrible. The Marvel's

39:43

movie, which is recently was awful. Guardians

39:45

of the Game, Like, what made it awful? Because they

39:48

all look awful. It was just stupid. The

39:51

story was dumb, it wasn't interesting,

39:53

and they tried to make it too much of a They

39:55

have a tendency to try and make the movies too funny,

39:58

and it doesn't translate very well

40:00

anymore. And then the Guardians of

40:02

the Galaxy Part three was

40:04

so boring. I almost walked out three times.

40:06

Was that one disturbed me because

40:08

there's a lot of animal cruelty in that one and

40:11

it was just kind of sad to watch.

40:13

There was a lot of animal cruelty to it. They tried

40:15

to make it relevant. Yeah, it was

40:17

just a bad story.

40:18

Yeah. Has the market for comic

40:21

books changed in the sense that so

40:23

everyone knows if you have a really successful

40:25

comic book. Nowadays you can get a franchise

40:28

attached to a film franchise. Does

40:30

anyone come up with characters based

40:32

on the idea of like what will play well

40:35

on screen? Overall?

40:37

It feels like you don't actually get that many new

40:40

characters in new comic books.

40:41

That many new comics there really.

40:43

Are seems a shame. It

40:45

seems like it would solve the story problem if we

40:47

were actually coming up with new stories.

40:49

Well, there's new stories, and then there's new characters.

40:51

There's always new stories. But you

40:54

know the problem with Marvel is they don't have a story.

40:56

They just don't have a story.

40:58

I didn't realize that. I didn't anything

41:00

about this. I just sort of assumed that there every

41:02

superhero thing was just sort of this endless

41:04

story that could go on forever. Well

41:07

it does.

41:08

But when you're making movies, yeah,

41:10

you know, they what they had was this They

41:13

had all these different origin stories.

41:15

But then at the end of the day, all the movies

41:17

were going towards this one

41:19

central story, which was the last two movies,

41:22

and then it was over. So now you got to

41:24

like start again, and they haven't been able to find

41:26

how to start again.

41:28

Here's my desperate attempt to bring us

41:30

back to our core

41:32

content. If you could come up

41:34

with a comic finance,

41:36

investing markets economics

41:39

crossover, what would it be?

41:43

Oh, boy, I don't know, I don't know.

41:45

That's that's that's super portfolio.

41:48

No, no, you know. I used to joke when I was

41:51

Halloween, I'd take my kids around

41:54

just as me and they'd say, who I say,

41:56

I'm a hedge fund manager. I'm the scariest person.

42:00

That's low effort.

42:02

Should we go back to some of your big themes?

42:04

Sure? Why not? Okay, this was

42:07

more fun though.

42:08

I mean, actually, this has been a true

42:10

light bulb moment because all I knew is that people

42:13

weren't really watching the Marvel movie is the way they were

42:15

three or four year old. And now

42:17

for the first time it took me.

42:19

Especially now that one of my favorite characters has always

42:22

been four h huh and the last movie was

42:24

so bad. I was offended. Really,

42:26

yes, it's like, how dare you

42:28

do that to my character?

42:30

Interesting? God, I really don't

42:32

know exactly where to take this, but

42:34

let's I want to let's

42:36

just maybe go back to some of the

42:38

infrastructure sure questions.

42:40

It sounds to me like and

42:43

maybe this is a sort of investing

42:45

philosophy question. And you mentioned

42:47

the sort of the cell side analyst

42:49

arbitrage with that one company that got

42:51

listed here. You mentioned the

42:53

fact that even if there's a change in administration,

42:56

that doesn't necessarily change the underlying

42:58

stories. It sounds to me like, from a

43:00

philosophical perspective, your

43:02

view is there are big long

43:05

term trends and don't

43:07

count. Don't presume they're all priced

43:09

in immediately. Even if we can all agree

43:11

that there's ten years of growing electricity

43:14

demand, there's ten years of demand for

43:16

greater cooling solutions or whatever it

43:19

is, or more cement or more copper.

43:21

I'm not a great believer in it's all priced

43:23

in. Yeah, that's I don't subscribe

43:26

to me.

43:26

Yeah, that's sort of one that I wanted to get you on, Like, how

43:28

do you think about that question? Because I have, like

43:31

the way I think I have journalists brands, so I assumed

43:33

if I know about it, it's already priced in.

43:36

I mean, you know what people say, it's all priced in. My

43:38

question to them is always how

43:40

do you know? Did you get the old planet Earth into

43:42

group therapy? And ask everybody like is it

43:44

priced in?

43:45

Like?

43:45

How would you know that? Look, this is a story.

43:48

It's a story that's going to last a long time, and

43:50

as long as it keeps going, people are going to want to own

43:52

it. I mean it gets back to what I said before. In good

43:54

times, people traffic and

43:56

stories and as long as the story

43:58

is there by the stock.

44:00

I mean, if you go back to you know

44:03

the Internet bubble. What killed the Internet

44:05

bubble? It wasn't valuation. It

44:08

wasn't that it was all priced in. What killed

44:10

it was that the US engine

44:12

to a recession and these companies'

44:15

fundamentals fell apart. That's

44:17

what killed It. Wasn't that that they were very

44:19

expensive. Well obviously they were in retrospect.

44:22

So this, you know, they have this

44:24

infrastructure store. I think it is just going to go on for a very

44:26

very long time. And as long as that's

44:29

the case, people want to own so many stocks.

44:31

All right, Steve, it was so good talking

44:34

to you again. We talked about infrastructure, AI,

44:36

crypto, and of course comic books. Slightly

44:39

unexpected, but a lot of fun. Thank you so

44:41

much for coming back on our thoughts. Thank you, Joe.

44:56

That was really fun. I did not expect us

44:58

to spend twenty minutes talking about books,

45:00

but I enjoyed it.

45:01

No, I'm really excited tonight. Like I said, I'm going

45:03

to go home and tell my son that like him,

45:05

Peter Parker is Jewish, and see if that mean.

45:08

Like I said, I got a bond with my son

45:10

over his Spider Man affinity. So that'll

45:12

be a line.

45:13

You got to develop a literary theory of Spider

45:15

Man, just like Steve. That's what you need to

45:17

do. No, there is a lot of interesting stuff

45:19

in there. I thought the point about stories,

45:22

so you know, in good times people

45:24

are into stories, and then what really tends

45:26

to knock those theses are when the bad times

45:29

start, and that's when things start crumbling.

45:31

So far, you know, again, it is now

45:34

April of twenty twenty four. We

45:36

do not seem to be on the immediate

45:39

cusp of a recession, so you can

45:41

see why people continue to get

45:43

excited about these stories. The other

45:45

thing I thought was interesting was the idea

45:47

that like, okay, well, a lot of the infrastructure

45:50

programs have been started under the Biden administration.

45:52

Yeah, but there are aspects and themes

45:55

that emanated from the Trump administration,

45:58

so things like the subsidy for

46:00

solar panels in the fact that we're not importing

46:03

as many Chinese solar power panels

46:05

as we used to and that would be

46:07

expected to continue. So yeah,

46:10

that was interesting totally.

46:12

In general, I liked his point at the

46:14

very end about his belief that things

46:16

aren't just priced in immediately and as long

46:18

as things are good, people will write the story

46:20

I mean, look, so a year ago. By

46:24

a year ago, so April twenty twenty

46:26

three, it was unambiguously

46:29

understood that in video was

46:31

a key player in AI, right,

46:33

it was everyone had used Chad GPT

46:35

by that point, everyone knew was trained on in video

46:38

chips. Everyone's like, oh, this is crazy,

46:40

And in that time, in video is up

46:42

over fourfold. And I don't think

46:44

there's like some new information that

46:47

about in video or AI that's come

46:49

out. It's basically like, oh, just the storage

46:52

is very good. And maybe some of the numbers

46:54

and the degree to which other companies have piled

46:56

in or wanted to buy chips is true. But

46:58

to his point, these this idea that it's

47:01

all priced in the moment we're aware of the situation

47:03

is probably a good thing to internalize.

47:05

Yes, And I always think life would be

47:07

so boring if you went around just assuming

47:09

that everything was priced in immediately,

47:12

right, Like, what are we even doing here? If

47:14

we really believe that?

47:16

Yeah, why do we have a investment

47:18

industry at all? If everything I kind

47:20

of still believe that, but.

47:21

I don't take I refuse to believe

47:23

it.

47:24

Well, you would be a better investor than I would,

47:27

No.

47:27

I wouldn't okay, shall we leave

47:29

it there?

47:29

Let's leave it there.

47:30

This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts

47:32

podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow

47:35

me at Tracy Alloway and.

47:36

I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

47:39

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47:41

at Carman Arman dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot

47:44

and kel Brooks at Keil Brooks. Thank

47:46

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47:48

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47:50

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48:02

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48:04

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48:07

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48:22

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