0:01

Welcome to On the Job. As

0:04

you might be noticing if you're a longtime listener,

0:06

I am not Otis Gray. I'm

0:08

Avery Thompson, who you may remember

0:10

hearing way back in season three when

0:13

I told my story A Brush with Fame.

0:15

Well, I'm back again and I'm excited

0:18

to take the wheel for our whole new season of

0:20

On the Job, our seventh in fact,

0:23

So over the next eight episodes, I'll

0:25

be speaking with folks who have finally folded

0:27

up those pandemic sweatpants and are

0:29

back out there doing what they love and

0:32

keeping America moving forward. This

0:35

season, On the Job is on the

0:37

move, so come along for the

0:39

ride. It's

0:44

become a bit of a tradition here at On the Job

0:46

to start the season by speaking with an economist,

0:49

someone who can help us understand the current

0:51

state of our labor market. So

0:53

to kick things off, I gave a call to Raleigh,

0:56

North Carolina to speak with doctor

0:58

Michael L. Walden, Professor

1:00

Emeritus of North Carolina State University

1:03

and veteran economist with over forty

1:06

years of expertise. But

1:08

before you go thinking oh no, an economist,

1:10

hit the fast forward button. You'll

1:12

be relieved to know that I chose a person

1:14

that understands your apprehension and

1:17

has made it his life's work to help people

1:19

get over that econ phobia.

1:22

Economics is really common sense, and

1:24

I've made it my life's

1:26

purpose to explain things

1:28

in ways that people can understand. And

1:31

my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire

1:34

at some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip

1:36

off the podium and go on go

1:39

to the next level, because I do love

1:41

talking about and explain the economics

1:43

to people.

1:44

You'll move onto that big economic forum

1:46

in the sky.

1:48

That's right.

1:48

That's right, And more

1:50

than just being helpful, Doctor Walden

1:53

actually thinks economics can be thrilling.

1:56

Literally, I've written with my

1:58

wife what we call three

2:01

economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because

2:03

that's usually reaction I get because people think

2:05

thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.

2:08

But I was motivated to that by,

2:10

quite frankly, the economists use a lot of really

2:13

boring textbooks, and I felt sorry for my

2:15

students, and I thought if I could write something

2:17

that would teach them economics but would be exciting

2:20

to read. So over the course of several

2:22

years, my wife and I actually wrote three,

2:24

one on macroeconomics, one on microeconomics,

2:27

and one on the financial system, and students

2:29

love them.

2:31

So if you're looking for an exciting summer read,

2:34

we'll have links to doctor Walden's books in the

2:36

show notes. In the meanwhile,

2:39

I asked them to explain the current state

2:41

of our nation's economic affairs, doctor

2:44

Walden as the hard hitting journalist

2:46

that I am. I just did a quick Google search

2:49

and I see that the unemployment

2:51

rate is three point four percent.

2:54

That's pretty darn low, isn't it.

2:56

It's I think, actually a forty or fifty

2:58

year low. It's been amazing.

3:01

In fact, we had a pretty rip roaring

3:03

economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the

3:05

pandemic hit and we economists

3:07

knew that that was going to cause a recession, and

3:09

it did. We had an unemployment rate in

3:13

March I believe March or April of twenty twenty

3:15

and fourteen percent, highest

3:17

since the so called Great Depression of the nineteen

3:20

thirties. But once we began to

3:22

open up, which happened at the end of May,

3:24

and once we the federal government started pushing

3:26

stimulus money in the economy began

3:28

to quickly recover, and actually we got back

3:30

to pre levels of at least production within

3:33

another quarter, and we've been growing since,

3:35

and we're actually now in an economy that's

3:37

beyond where it was pre pandemic

3:40

in terms of production, also in terms of

3:42

employment.

3:45

I think we can all agree that a low unemployment

3:47

rate is a good thing, but I have to admit

3:50

that I didn't entirely understand what

3:52

that looked like out in our job market.

3:54

With the unemployment rate being three point

3:56

four percent, does that mean that there are no jobs

3:59

availed for someone looking or

4:02

are there lots of jobs that we just can't

4:04

keep filled? Oh?

4:05

No, there right now. A

4:08

lot of people heard this and

4:10

recently that there were two jobs available

4:12

for every person unemployed. It's actually gotten

4:14

a little better as about one point seven jobs

4:16

available for every person unemployed now.

4:18

Pre pandemic, which was more normal,

4:21

it was only one point two jobs available

4:23

for every person employed. So yeah, there are

4:25

still signs out there and businesses

4:28

saying please apply.

4:30

But doctor Wolden explained the types

4:33

of jobs that are widely available are

4:35

different from those that we might have seen one or

4:37

two years ago, because as the

4:39

world returns to some sort of post pandemic,

4:42

normal Americans are once

4:44

again craving community. We

4:46

want to hang out at bars and restaurants again,

4:49

or maybe take that long overdue vacation.

4:52

And therefore the jobs market, those

4:54

now hiring signs we're seeing all over town

4:57

reflect the shift in consumer behavior.

5:00

If you look at the latest job

5:02

of report we had for the nation, which came

5:04

out well January, it was a very robust report.

5:07

What we saw is a lot of people

5:09

taking restaurant jobs and personal service

5:11

jobs, exactly the opposite of what happened after

5:13

the pandemic. And I think what's happened

5:16

here is the tech sector is slowing

5:18

down. So I think that this makes

5:21

sense to me that as a tech

5:23

sector shed some people, those people,

5:25

maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to go back at

5:27

least for a while, and maybe those jobs that

5:29

I left.

5:30

Despite the very favorable labor market

5:32

with nearly two jobs available for every

5:35

job seeker, doctor Waldon

5:37

suggests that we shouldn't get too comfortable.

5:40

Employers have a special trick up their

5:42

sleeve to combat this labor shortage,

5:44

that we should all be careful about.

5:47

One thing we're going to see more of

5:49

to deal broadly with the labor

5:51

shortage is something that we actually feared

5:54

a decade ago, and that is technology.

5:57

In other words robots, well,

6:02

also automation and AI, but

6:04

yes, also robots.

6:05

But I think some of those technologies

6:08

have been developed, they may hit

6:10

at just the right time.

6:11

And it's no longer just factory jobs

6:14

and other repetitive tasks that are

6:16

at risk of being replaced.

6:17

Especially now, for example, we're getting AI.

6:20

AI is being developed and then there's some scary

6:22

things about that, but that's

6:24

going to influence people at more cognitive

6:27

jobs. So I don't think we should get

6:29

too set in thinking

6:31

that all this labor shortage is going to go on. I

6:33

do think eventually we're going to see a lot of this technology

6:36

come in and be used by businesses.

6:39

So I still think people need to worry about

6:41

getting the skills that they need to get in order

6:43

to get the job they want, and

6:46

just don't be setting back and saying, oh, I can get a job

6:48

anytime I want, because there's so many jobs deal

6:50

I think eventually it'll change.

6:53

So doctor Walden's advice, get

6:56

that job now, folks, strike

6:58

while the iron's hot. We'll

7:01

be right back.

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7:35

We're back speaking with economist

7:37

doctor Michael L. Walden, who

7:39

is just reflecting on a very strong

7:41

post pandemic labor market we're enjoying.

7:45

But doctor Walden also acknowledges

7:47

that even in a blazing labor market that

7:49

heavily favors the worker, sometimes

7:52

landing that job is easier said than

7:54

done.

7:56

We are probably in an era where

7:59

what business is want and the skills that are needed

8:01

are changing more rapidly than any time

8:03

before. And I

8:05

think, what's going to happen? This is not me saying

8:07

this. The kind of jobs that

8:10

are going to be applied for people

8:12

and the skills that are needed are going to change.

8:16

What doctor Walden is talking about has

8:18

already been playing out far and wide.

8:21

In just three decades, we've gone from

8:23

dial up modems to nearly every

8:25

single job in America requiring some

8:28

level of computer proficiency. And

8:30

we're not just talking about office workers.

8:33

Waitresses are taking our orders on

8:35

iPads. Mechanics are plugging

8:37

our cars into diagnostic systems,

8:40

metal fabricators are using CNC

8:42

machines and laser cutters. Even

8:45

our doctors are asking us to open

8:47

wide, stick out our tongues, and

8:49

zoom in with our camera phones. And

8:52

while the adoption of these technologies

8:54

has allowed for some phenomenal advancements,

8:57

it also poses some challenges to America's

8:59

workflow.

9:00

And what I worry about is that

9:03

we may very well be looking down the road of

9:05

the situation where we have a large

9:07

percentage of people who are say,

9:09

middle aged, they've been working at their job for

9:12

a decade or two, they've got family to

9:14

raise, et cetera, who one day wake

9:16

up and find their job's gone. They

9:18

may be taken over by technology, it may have been

9:20

changed in some way, and they need

9:22

to get retrained, and they don't have

9:25

time to go to a four year college

9:27

spend four years retraining. So I think

9:29

we need to start looking at programs that

9:31

get people retrained in skills

9:33

that are needed quickly. I think

9:35

we need to encourage businesses

9:38

to set up their own training programs

9:40

for people. So I think I

9:42

think the rapidity and what skills

9:44

are going to are going to change will require

9:47

a much more rapid and efficient educational

9:50

system.

9:52

So to meet these swiftly changing times,

9:55

we're going to have to get clever about education

9:58

and retraining. From

10:00

the returning popularity of trade schools

10:03

to coding boot camps, Americans

10:05

are scrambling to stay ahead and

10:07

take some agency in their future

10:09

career path. Now,

10:14

of course, I wouldn't be fulfilling my hosting

10:16

duties here if I spoke to an economist

10:19

and didn't ask him to gaze into

10:21

his crystal ball. So I

10:23

had doctor Walden with a question that seems

10:25

to be on everyone's minds these days.

10:28

Will we have a recession? And

10:31

his response was.

10:33

I'm in the camp that I think we will toward the end

10:35

of the year.

10:35

But before you get too concerned,

10:38

he added some very interesting caveats.

10:41

So there's one idea that economists

10:43

that have been batting around sort of in the background

10:46

here is that if we get a

10:48

recession, we may actually

10:50

see businesses not layoff

10:52

anyone, or maybe the layoff

10:54

would be very minyl because they can cut their labor

10:56

CAUs by simply cutting the number of unfilled

10:59

positions. So the forecast

11:01

that I've seen, even in the worst case

11:03

scenario is maybe the unemployment

11:06

rate would go up to five percent

11:09

and five percent of employment. Now, no,

11:11

I don't want anyone listening to think that

11:13

I don't care about unemployed people. I do. My

11:15

father working in construction, he was unemployed

11:18

a couple of times, always every year, and I

11:20

remember living through that. But if

11:22

five percent of unemployment when I

11:24

was engraved with school fifty years ago, that

11:27

was considered full employment. And

11:29

so if we get to five percent employment and

11:32

that's the worst during what I think will

11:34

be an upcoming recession, that would be great.

11:36

So fingers crossed. If we do have

11:38

a recession, I think there'll be best

11:41

case scenario, there'll be no negative impact

11:43

on the job market. But if it's

11:45

a normal situation, even minimal

11:48

impact on the job market, and then

11:50

we'll get back. And then the other thing. The other

11:52

thing the companies are remembering is they

11:55

had to work hard to get the people they have because

11:57

it's so competitive, and so a

12:00

lot of companies are reluctant to let

12:02

people go because they're worried they can't get him

12:04

back when times get back to normal and the economy

12:06

blooms again.

12:13

Only time will tell how things play

12:16

out, but I hope for everyone's sake that

12:18

doctor Walden is right and things

12:20

won't be as bad as some of these doomsday

12:22

pundits have been predicting that

12:24

this labor market will continue to roar.

12:29

But then, just as we were wrapping

12:31

up our interview, I noticed

12:34

hanging in the background of his office a

12:36

long row of baseball caps,

12:38

all of them bearing the logo of

12:41

the Cincinnati Reds.

12:43

And if you know anything about the Cincinnati

12:45

Reds, then you know you have

12:47

to be an eternal optimist to keep

12:49

rooting for them.

12:50

My Reds had a horrible season

12:53

last year. I think they lost one hundred and two games,

12:55

But I'm always optimistic about a lot

12:57

of young players, so I'm

12:59

looking for good things from the Reds. Maybe

13:01

not World Series, but at least being competitive.

13:04

So maybe we should take doctor

13:07

Waldon's positive economic outlook

13:09

with a grain of salt. Or

13:12

maybe he's completely right and

13:14

we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For

13:18

on the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll

13:20

see you down the road.