0:01

You're listening to One Decision, the podcast

0:03

that looks at the choices made that

0:06

shape our world. I'm your host, Julia

0:08

McFarlane. And since this

0:10

is our final podcast of 2023, we

0:12

thought we'd take stock of the big

0:14

decisions made this year that had global

0:16

impact and will continue to shape the

0:18

world in the year ahead. No

0:21

surprises on what we landed on, but

0:23

the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the

0:25

fallout from the Hamas terror attacks against

0:28

Israel on the 7th of October and

0:30

the crushing Israeli military response on

0:32

Gaza have all dominated conversations on

0:34

foreign policy this year. To

0:37

the detriment of ongoing crises

0:39

in Sudan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, the

0:41

challenge posed by Beijing and

0:44

of course climate change. Looming

0:46

large over the horizon in 2024

0:48

is of course the US election,

0:51

which will impact all of these

0:53

issues and more. So to

0:55

help me chew over where we are with the

0:57

conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as

1:00

always for our end of year episodes

1:02

is a brilliant panel of wonderful journalists

1:04

who've been deeply involved in coverage of

1:06

these stories. Belle True is

1:09

senior international correspondent for The Independent.

1:11

Belle has spent most of the last two

1:13

years in Ukraine covering the Russian invasion. She

1:16

was previously based in Cairo covering the Arab

1:18

Spring and is joining us from Jerusalem. Also

1:22

with us is Prashant Rao, formerly of The Atlantic

1:24

and The New York Times. He's now senior

1:26

editor at Semaphore, where he runs the

1:28

Net Zero newsletter and the flagship newsletter,

1:30

which is truly excellent. I read it

1:32

pretty much every morning and I'm not

1:34

just saying that because he's a friend

1:36

of the pod. And last

1:38

but not least is foreign policy's Robbie

1:41

Grammer, who covers the State Department and

1:43

is very worth following for his coverage

1:45

of American diplomacy and the impact of

1:47

US foreign policy overseas. Robbie

1:49

previously managed the NATO portfolio at

1:51

The Atlantic Council. Let's

1:54

get right to the discussion. Let's start

1:56

with the situation between

1:58

Israel and the Palestinian. What's

2:01

happening in Israel and

2:03

Palestine took us all surprised, but this

2:05

is actually something I feel

2:09

we should have seen coming. I mean, there

2:11

were plenty of signs whether or not there

2:13

were the Abraham Accords. For one,

2:15

the Saudis being on the cusp of normalizing

2:17

ties with Israel. The fact

2:19

that the Israeli government was horrifically

2:22

weak after months of these incredible

2:24

protests against Netanyahu. There were IDF

2:26

reservists refusing to go to their

2:28

posts, soldiers boycotting the

2:30

army. We even had intelligence and defense

2:32

chiefs who were actually going on

2:34

television saying that the country was being horrifically

2:37

vulnerable to attack. I

2:39

mean, it should have been obvious to us that

2:41

something was going to happen. Why

2:43

did we all miss this? I mean,

2:45

it was obviously not

2:48

predicted by the Israeli side. And

2:50

there are some very angry people

2:52

here in Israel and there will

2:54

be very hard questions asked in

2:56

the coming months when this immediate

2:58

military operation ends. To find out

3:01

exactly what the intelligence failures were

3:03

because it's been pretty catastrophic. But

3:05

I think what the Palestinian side

3:07

would say is that although I

3:10

don't think anyone would have imagined there would

3:12

be thousands of people crossing over into southern

3:14

Israel and the horrific scenes that we saw,

3:17

there was a surge

3:20

in a crackdown and a very violent behavior

3:22

towards Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. And

3:24

pressure being put on Gaza with this 15-year

3:26

siege by Israel and Egypt that had really

3:29

turned the region into a powder keg. And

3:31

I think probably from the Western perspective,

3:33

we've just unfortunately got this

3:35

view that this area is just synonymous

3:37

with conflict and we got almost, I

3:40

guess, immune to it. But in the West Bank,

3:42

we were already seeing, in the occupied West Bank,

3:44

we were already seeing unprecedented levels of the

3:47

shuttle of violence. This was before 7th of

3:49

October in terms of displacement of Palestinians, forces

3:51

based on the Palestinians. Also

3:54

the surge in the numbers of administrative

3:56

detention of Palestinians without the people held

3:58

without trial or charge. indefinitely, which

4:00

some rights groups take an amount to

4:02

in violation of international law. And so

4:04

for their side, this was a powder

4:07

keg that was happening. And this had been

4:09

going on for years, we were seeing lots

4:11

of attacks in places like Jannine and Philcarim

4:13

and a lot of rising anger. So there,

4:15

I think was a more clear

4:17

pathway to how we got there from the Palestinian

4:19

side. I think there's multiple ways to

4:22

answer this question. One is, of course, there is

4:24

the intelligence failure. There is, as has been, multiple

4:27

people cited the kind of 9-11 commission

4:29

quote of a failure of imagination. There

4:31

was a failure of strategic foresight by

4:33

Benjamin Netanyahu in his handling of Hamas.

4:36

And there was a failure of the Israeli

4:38

body politic in the long term to prioritize

4:40

a long term resolution to a

4:42

conflict that they believe they could manage

4:45

rather than solve in the long run.

4:47

And that actually, you know, maybe it's

4:49

unfair to sort of blame the Israeli

4:51

body politic, because actually, Western leaders, Arab

4:54

leaders really wanted to move past the

4:56

Israel-Palestinian dispute. And so

4:59

why didn't we see this coming? I mean, how

5:01

long do we have? There's just innumerable reasons, all

5:03

of which really get at the depth of how

5:06

this problem felt like for a while, like it just wasn't

5:08

a priority. And frankly, you know, in

5:10

the years after the Arab Spring,

5:12

it really wasn't. And I don't

5:14

mean that in a kind of judgmental way,

5:16

it just wasn't. There wasn't a single diplomat

5:19

who really sort of made that their life's

5:21

mission to solve this issue. The Obama administration

5:23

didn't, the Trump administration didn't,

5:25

and the Biden administration didn't until now,

5:27

Ursula von der Leyen said this on

5:29

our recent discussion with Politico, but maybe

5:31

hopefully one silver lining of this horrific

5:34

couple months is that the momentum for a

5:36

two state solution finally seems to have potentially

5:40

restarted. But again, I mean, who

5:42

knows? Robby, I think what Prashant is

5:44

saying, and particularly about the importance of the

5:46

two state solution and how this

5:49

has shown us that this problem is actually not something

5:51

that is going to go away. I think

5:54

the momentum, particularly over

5:56

in the US is really interesting. There has

5:58

been a shift, has it not? in

6:00

how this conflict is being discussed in

6:03

America. And I remember the last time things were

6:05

this bad between Israel and the Palestinians back in

6:07

2014, and I think it was Operation Pillar of

6:09

Defense. It was another

6:11

series of really tragic events that

6:13

basically tipped both sides into all-out

6:15

war with each other. And there

6:17

was a very heavy Israeli response

6:19

like there is now, but

6:22

it still didn't push things forward in a way

6:24

that they have now. And why do you think

6:26

that is? There were, of course, you know, factions

6:28

of the Democratic Party that were very against the

6:31

Israeli response back in 2014. But why

6:34

is it more of a divisive issue

6:36

in America? Why are more politicians, more

6:39

influences, more people, almost sort of breaking

6:41

cover and criticizing Israel in a way

6:43

that they haven't before? I mean, it

6:45

can't all just be because the

6:47

Zoomers are on TikTok talking about the occupation,

6:49

right? No, I mean, I think you

6:51

hit on a great point. The way,

6:54

you know, I've talked to dozens of

6:56

progressive foreign policy experts and lawmakers on

6:58

both sides of this issue about just

7:00

that. And there are

7:02

two things that are clear. The first

7:04

is that for President Biden himself, support

7:07

for Israel is innate. It's in his

7:09

foreign policy DNA. It's a very establishment-centrist

7:11

democratic foreign policy platform. One of the

7:13

few things that centrist Democrats and Republicans

7:16

really agree on here is support for

7:18

Israel. Biden has shown an ability

7:20

to really bend and shift politics

7:22

to the progressive flank of his

7:24

party on every issue except this.

7:27

But that brings me to the second point, which

7:29

is that it's very clear that within the Democratic

7:31

Party, the ground is shifting under Biden's feet. Among

7:34

young voters, among the more

7:36

progressive, the more active flank of the party,

7:38

there is a real skepticism of Israel here.

7:40

I think part of it is spurred by

7:43

the horrific scenes that are coming out of Gaza

7:45

right now. Even in 2014, you know, you didn't

7:48

see this level

7:50

of dire humanitarian crisis, this

7:52

level of full-scale war in

7:54

such a highly concentrated urban

7:56

area. And the second is there

7:58

is just this generational shift. how that

8:00

plays out remains to be seen. But

8:03

Biden is facing a lot of pressure

8:05

from within his own party on how

8:07

he's balancing this. They're trying to balance

8:09

on this precarious fence here of showing

8:11

full unfettered support for Israel while also

8:14

trying to get Israel to tamp back

8:16

its operations in Gaza to try to

8:18

limit the humanitarian crisis. And it's clear

8:20

Biden's facing this massive pushback not only

8:22

on the international stage here, but from

8:25

within his own party. Right,

8:27

you mentioned the international stage and

8:29

this growing pushback against

8:31

US support. Something I did not

8:33

have on my bingo card

8:35

for 2023 was Pope Francis

8:39

essentially accusing Israel of

8:41

terrorism, referring to the killing of

8:44

Catholics inside a church in

8:46

Gaza. You know, he said some people

8:48

say it's war, some people say it's

8:50

terrorism. It is war. It

8:52

is terrorism. We've seen also

8:54

the former Defense Secretary of the UK

8:56

say that Israel is conducting a killing

8:59

rage, which he says is going

9:01

to make this conflict last another

9:03

50 years. He's referring to sort

9:05

of the radicalizing effect of the

9:07

Israeli bombardment. Prashant, I'd love to

9:09

get your thoughts on this. What is the wider

9:12

impact of growing isolation of

9:14

Israel? Is it just limited to the

9:16

Middle East where we may see the

9:18

Saudis turn their back on normalizing with

9:21

Israel for a generation, maybe no more

9:23

countries join the accords? Or does it

9:25

go further than that? Is

9:27

there an impact on America here?

9:30

Is this going to negatively impact

9:32

America's standing in the world and

9:34

how it is given the political

9:36

capital that Biden continues to spend?

9:39

And the fact that the Israelis are

9:41

basically an open defiance of the White

9:43

House with representatives of the Israeli government

9:45

who have said in media interviews recently

9:47

that there will never be a

9:50

two-state solution. They are against a Palestinian state.

9:53

What's the impact of this and how far does

9:55

this contagion spread? Yes, to all of it.

9:57

It's all of these impacts. I mean, I just don't think you

9:59

can understand. States the breadth of

10:01

what is happening to global diplomacy.

10:03

So the diplomatic cost of the

10:05

White House is I think we are

10:08

only beginning to understand. If you

10:10

had asked this question maybe in the week

10:12

or two immediately following the attack, my initial

10:14

thought was in a

10:16

very kind of rail politic sense, some

10:18

of the alliances that were shifting around

10:20

the world were in the long term

10:22

benefit of the United States, one of

10:25

which was India shifting quite radically. I

10:27

mean, maybe not radically, but quite significantly

10:29

in favor of Israel and really sort

10:31

of several American allies cementing

10:33

their alliances to the United States by

10:35

showing more support for Israel than we

10:37

had thought. There was the initial period

10:39

following the October 7th attacks

10:42

where Saudi Arabia seemed to be saying via

10:44

back channels that they were still open to the Israel deal that

10:47

they'd been talking to the White House about. Now,

10:49

I mean, the longer this goes on, and it certainly looks

10:51

like it'll go into the new year and beyond, it

10:54

remains this huge priority of Netanyahu's government, the longest

10:56

he remains in power. All

10:58

of those sort of things seem to be slipping away for

11:00

the White House, at least that's what it seems like from

11:02

afar and sort of people I've talked to. I

11:04

think the cost to the White House will be enormous.

11:07

The efforts that were expended to unite

11:09

developing countries, the kind of quote unquote

11:11

West in the aftermath of the Ukraine

11:13

war, I think a lot of that

11:15

has been undermined. And, Belle,

11:17

you're talking to us from Jerusalem

11:20

this evening. What is the conversation

11:22

that is happening in Israel? Obviously,

11:24

there is, I think, a huge

11:26

number of Israelis who are against

11:29

the Israeli military operation, against the IDF

11:31

tactics, a lot of people speaking on

11:34

channels like N12, and we're

11:36

just not really hearing about that in international

11:38

news coverage. But there is a lot

11:41

of opposition to what is

11:43

happening in Gaza. But in

11:45

terms of the domestic conversation

11:47

that Israelis are having amongst

11:49

themselves, what are they saying

11:51

about the growing international rebuking

11:53

of Israel, particularly with, you know, as

11:55

we mentioned, the Pope, senior

11:57

government officials, some of the strong words

12:00

that we've seen from the former Defense Secretary

12:02

Ben Wallace and increasing numbers

12:04

of people coming out to say we need a

12:06

ceasefire. Yeah, I mean, also

12:08

we had Joe Biden saying that

12:10

Israel was launching indiscriminate attacks on

12:12

Gaza as well, which was a slightly shocking

12:15

statement in the sense that the US has

12:18

almost greenlit this operation by saying they're

12:20

100% behind Israel and it's right to

12:22

defend itself. I think talking

12:24

to people on the streets, you know, in places

12:27

like Tel Aviv, also being in the

12:29

occupied West Bank and talking to people

12:31

every day in Gaza, from the Israeli

12:33

side, from the families of the hostages

12:35

and the people that support them, they

12:37

want a ceasefire because they're extremely concerned

12:39

about the well-being of their loved ones

12:41

in Gaza. They've made

12:44

it very clear that military

12:46

action is not going

12:48

to bring their loved ones back alive.

12:50

And this was highlighted recently with the

12:53

news that the Israeli military admitted shooting

12:55

dead three hostages in Gaza

12:58

who were shirtless, waving

13:00

a white flag and shouting help in

13:03

Hebrew, which Israeli rights groups have pointed

13:05

out would be a massive violation of

13:07

international law, even if they were Hamas

13:09

combatants. Anyone who's surrendering and holding a

13:12

white flag is protected. So

13:14

that has made people here even more alarmed

13:16

because they are concerned with the military action,

13:18

with the potential for hostages who have managed

13:20

to get to freedom. If they then get

13:23

shot by the Israeli military or they're caught

13:25

in the crossfire or they're killed in the

13:27

bombing or they die of starvation or the

13:29

lack of water, then this is the

13:32

worst case scenario for them. But I

13:34

will say that that is not necessarily

13:37

coming from a position of focusing on

13:39

the plight of Palestinian civilians. Talking

13:42

to some groups, they're saying to

13:44

me they want to have a

13:46

ceasefire deal, whatever it takes to get

13:48

the hostages out of Israel, and then

13:50

they can continue the military offensive in

13:52

Gaza. There seems to be widespread

13:54

support for the Israeli military

13:57

and in this idea to eliminate

13:59

Hamas, whatever that means. And what are

14:01

Israelis saying about the growing international

14:03

isolationism? I mean, there is obviously

14:05

not a huge amount of love

14:07

for Netanyahu and his government right

14:09

now, but are Israelis

14:11

saying, you know, this is causing

14:13

us harm, our closest friends are

14:15

criticising us and abandoning us? Is

14:18

there any of that being discussed widely

14:20

among Israel, or is the priority still very

14:22

much to just get the remaining hostages out

14:26

before they look up and pick up the

14:28

pieces and try and work out where Israel

14:30

is standing in the world, has been affected by all this? When

14:33

you talk to the families of the hostages, they

14:35

say they don't want to talk about politics, they're

14:37

obviously very angry with the war cabinet. They're very

14:39

careful to say they support the Israeli military, but

14:41

whatever it takes to get the hostages out. Now,

14:43

we're seeing quite worrying language coming from other

14:46

parts of Israel who are supporting whatever's

14:48

happening in Gaza in terms of a

14:50

horrific offensive. But

14:52

in terms of international criticism, I

14:54

think for Israelis, they really see

14:56

the 7th of October as a paradigm

14:59

shift moment. For them, they've

15:01

compared it to the Holocaust. They say it

15:04

was this horrific attack. Usually,

15:06

when we've looked at the past conflicts between Israel

15:08

and Hamas, the death toll on the Israeli side

15:10

and the actual impact of Israelis is tiny

15:12

in comparison to what the Palestinians have had

15:14

to suffer. So this was

15:16

huge for them at the beginning, and so I don't

15:18

think they quite understand why

15:21

the world wants to criticize

15:24

them and to see this as

15:26

indiscriminate. So I think there

15:28

is some disappointment there, but really,

15:30

the scenes that we're seeing coming out of Gaza are so

15:32

horrific. The numbers are unprecedented in

15:34

terms of the rate of killing and the number

15:37

of children being killed. We're

15:39

also seeing unprecedented violence in the West Bank

15:41

in terms of settlements, attacks,

15:43

settlers' attacks, and killing of West Bank

15:45

Palestinians as well. But I think

15:48

that it's got to the point now where the world leaders really

15:50

have to say something. And I want to

15:52

move on from Israel and Gaza, but before I

15:54

do, because we are trying to look into our

15:56

crystal balls a little bit, can I ask Bel

15:59

from where we are? your standing. I mean,

16:01

Benjamin Netanyahu, the great survivor, his political

16:04

obituary has been preemptively written so many

16:06

times before. Is 2024 going to be

16:08

the year where Israelis

16:10

finally get rid of him? There's so much

16:13

anger against him and confusion. I mean, definitely

16:15

the anger is against him and the war

16:17

cabinet and why this, you know, ever happened

16:19

in the first place. And I think there's

16:21

a lot of anger that he's not pushing

16:23

for it. Anything goes deal to get the

16:25

hostages out. And a lot of

16:27

people, I think, see him as doing that to save

16:29

his political career. So I don't know. I mean,

16:31

I think there's so many questions about what's going

16:34

to happen because, you know, even if they manage

16:36

to be a ceasefire, what happens the next day?

16:38

You know, what's going to happen with the occupied

16:40

West Bank? What's going to happen? It's, you know,

16:42

and regionally, there's still a wall that's taking place

16:44

on the northern border of Israel with Lebanon as

16:46

well. I think that's all going to play out

16:48

to whether Netanyahu survives this or not, you

16:51

know, in the next few months. I

16:53

want to move to Ukraine and Russia

16:55

now, which was, of course, the big

16:58

story that dominated not just this year,

17:00

but also last year. I mean,

17:03

Prashant, where are we

17:05

now nearly two years on from

17:08

the full scale invasion of Ukraine, the

17:10

widely anticipated counter offensive that was meant

17:12

to take place this summer, it was

17:15

delayed for a few months because the

17:17

Ukrainians felt they didn't have enough weaponry

17:19

to carry it out to much of

17:21

an effective degree. That's largely

17:23

classed as failed by a lot of

17:26

observers. Where are we right now? Two

17:28

years on. I mean, if you

17:30

were to take the analysis of Ukraine's own commander in

17:32

chief of the military, or the head of the Ukraine's

17:34

military, we're at a stalemate. Both sides make sort of

17:36

tactical gains here and there, but there has been a

17:39

strategic shift in the war at some time. I mean,

17:41

from where I said, at least the longer there

17:44

is a stalemate, the more that is beneficial to

17:46

Russia, because these sort of patients in Western capitals

17:48

is clearly wearing out. We all see

17:50

what's happening in the halls of Congress at the moment

17:52

that there's an inability to agree this border security deal

17:55

that could provide some military aid to Ukraine. And there's

17:57

also a failure in Brussels to agree this 50 million

17:59

euro. aid package to Ukraine. And

18:01

so the longer this goes on, I

18:03

think Moscow has shown a sort of

18:06

an ability to just gear its economy

18:08

towards a war. And, you know, there

18:10

are obviously continual signs that the Russian

18:12

economy is vulnerable. But I

18:15

think the continual mistake that we

18:17

as an analyst, and broadly the analyst journalists,

18:19

the community may have made in thinking about

18:21

Russia is seeing this as

18:24

a purely rational calculation. And actually,

18:27

it is by definition an irrational calculation, which

18:29

means that like the collapse of the Russian

18:31

economy is not necessarily the thing that will

18:33

end this war, or the deterioration of the

18:35

Russian economy is not necessarily a thing that

18:37

will end this war, because this is not

18:39

a rational actor in our conception of one.

18:41

And so, you know,

18:43

inflation, it may reach 10% next year,

18:45

according to some analytical projections and growing

18:48

debt and various deficits.

18:50

Broadly, that doesn't matter. Or if it does,

18:52

it's more of a fringe issue than it would be if it

18:54

was happening in the United States or the UK, which has different sort of

18:57

calculations and understandings of what a rational actor should

18:59

be doing. So my sense is that the longer

19:01

this goes on, you know, particularly as

19:04

we run into like this March election cycle

19:06

for Russia, I mean, I use election with

19:08

air quotes, obviously, the closer we get to

19:10

that. And beyond that, I just sort of

19:12

the long term does benefit, I think Moscow over

19:14

time. Sarah-Bethany G. Asprey, Vice President, United States Robert,

19:16

time is really of the essence. And

19:18

certainly the American money for Ukraine runs

19:20

out the end of the month. And

19:22

we have seen the US struggle to

19:24

make good on its promise of support

19:26

for Ukraine, we've seen a divided Congress

19:29

fail to pass this huge aid

19:31

bill, which is so desperately needed for

19:33

Ukraine. I mean, we saw

19:35

a very high level Ukrainian delegation, including

19:37

Vladimir Zelensky in Washington, this month, they

19:40

have been talking to a lot of

19:42

lawmakers from both sides, they say that

19:44

there is still bipartisan support for

19:47

their cause. I think

19:49

the issue with this bill that failed to

19:51

pass before Christmas, yes, it is domestic politics,

19:53

the Republicans want more money for the border

19:55

to be tacked on to this bill, which

19:58

has slowed it for the next year. from

20:00

being passed in Congress, but that

20:02

doesn't mean Republicans don't support Ukraine,

20:04

right? Yeah, I think that's absolutely

20:06

right. There's a lot of, frankly,

20:08

misguided analysis out there about where

20:11

the Republican Party stands on Ukraine

20:13

right now. The reality is, if

20:15

you could magically take a bill

20:17

that is just for funding for

20:19

Ukraine, and put it before

20:21

the House and Senate, it would pass

20:23

in the House with 350 maybe 360 out of 435 votes, it would

20:25

pass in the Senate

20:29

with probably 90 to 95 votes.

20:32

The issue here is the dynamics in

20:34

the House where the Republicans have a

20:36

razor thin majority, and therefore have to

20:38

cater to some of these far right

20:40

wing provocateurs. And also the

20:42

fact that the Biden administration made what at

20:44

the time seemed like a politically convenient gamble

20:47

and turned out to blow up in their

20:49

face to pair this big

20:51

national security package for Israel, for

20:53

Taiwan, for Ukraine with the southern

20:55

border. Right now, you know,

20:57

talking to people on Capitol Hill, it's

21:00

clear that these negotiations are going to

21:02

extend into January, even as the administration

21:05

sounds alarm bells that the taps are

21:07

running dry on what it can legally

21:09

authorized to send to Ukraine. I

21:12

think going back to Prashant's point, after it was clear

21:14

that this war would not be a swift, week

21:16

long Russian victory to conquer Ukraine,

21:19

Putin has made a bet that

21:21

Russia cares about Ukraine more

21:24

and for longer than the West will care about

21:26

Ukraine. And the cracks are starting to show in

21:28

a way that says

21:30

maybe Putin's gamble will pay off.

21:32

We've seen some but not all

21:34

elections in Europe elect, you know,

21:36

looking at Slovakia elect more, which

21:38

is more pro Putin candidates. Obviously,

21:41

Hungary is a big blocker there

21:43

with Viktor Orban, seen as Putin's

21:45

closest ally in the EU blocking

21:47

aid, making talks on Ukraine succession,

21:49

accession to the EU incredibly difficult.

21:52

And here in the United States, you know, there's

21:54

obviously going to be this big question looming over

21:56

everything, which is what happens in 2024 when Trump

21:58

takes I

22:01

do think that where the Republicans stand on

22:03

Ukraine is a bit more complex than what

22:05

some media puts out there. Yes,

22:07

the right-wing provocateurs like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt

22:09

Gaetz, they get a lot more interviews, they get

22:12

a lot more retweets. The center of

22:14

mass in the party is still very pro-Ukraine. I'm

22:17

sure he's still out on how Donald Trump would

22:19

handle that if he was elected. I think

22:21

it's a bit more complicated, but even with

22:23

that said, it's clear that all

22:25

of Ukraine's allies across the West are incredibly worried about

22:27

what's going on in Washington right now. And

22:30

really, they should be. And just

22:32

as a final point here, I mean,

22:34

I've been talking to some Ukrainian lawmakers,

22:37

some Ukrainian officials, as well as Eastern

22:39

European defense officials. What they're worried about

22:41

this winter is Russia really ramping up

22:43

the cost in terms of civilian casualties

22:46

on Ukraine, stocking up missiles

22:48

and ammunition, probing Ukrainian lines to see

22:50

if there are any weaknesses here. There's

22:53

this saying that amateurs talk strategy and

22:55

professionals talk logistics. I think this war

22:57

is coming down to a war of

23:00

attrition and a war of logistics here.

23:02

And Russia is transforming itself into a

23:04

wartime economy in a way where it

23:06

can mass produce artillery shells in a way that the West hasn't.

23:09

I think that's a really important point. I think

23:11

ramping up the human cost, that's something, Bel, I

23:13

would love to talk to you about because you

23:15

spent much of the last two years in Ukraine

23:18

covering the war there. You

23:20

made a really incredible documentary film called

23:22

The Body in the Woods, which started

23:25

off, you had this mission to identify

23:27

and name the body of

23:29

this 16-year-old boy who had been tied

23:31

up and shot in the back and

23:33

dumped in a ditch in these Ukrainian

23:35

woods at this abandoned Russian camp. You

23:38

followed the journey of other Ukrainians, including

23:40

a young man called Vladimir who was

23:43

looking for his mum who he knew

23:45

had died somewhere in Ukraine

23:47

but had no idea where her body was and

23:49

was desperate to lay her to rest and get

23:51

some sense of closure. I

23:54

mean, the Ukrainians started off this war with a

23:56

huge sense of morale, but they've lost so much.

24:00

many people scarred and traumatised two

24:02

years on. How long

24:04

is that morale going to last? I

24:06

mean, when you were last there, what

24:08

did you feel was the sense among

24:10

the Ukrainian sort of mental fortitude and

24:12

ability to keep taking much of this

24:14

war? Well, I think morale has dipped

24:16

since this war where I am right

24:18

now has erupted, because I think there's

24:20

a feeling that the focus

24:22

has shifted as we've just been talking about. I think

24:25

there's a deep concern that those stunning

24:27

gains we saw in the northeast of

24:30

the country around Kharkiv, towards Kapi'enzli Man,

24:32

and as we saw down in the

24:34

south when they retook Khassan City, those

24:38

gains are just not happening right now because we

24:40

are in a war of attrition and that there

24:42

just isn't enough artillery shells in the west that

24:44

can be made and given to Ukraine to be

24:46

able to sustain any movement forward. There was a

24:48

big hope and there was a lot of attention

24:51

drawn towards what was supposed to be the counter

24:53

offensive in the summer where they were going

24:55

to push forward in the southeast. I was

24:57

down on those front lines in the Zaporica

24:59

region in Indonezhk. That didn't

25:01

happen. Right now, they are about

25:03

to lose ground that they took back in

25:05

the north in a place called Kapi'enzk. They've

25:08

pretty much lost Adivka, which is

25:10

Indonezhk. And these areas, I've

25:12

covered war for over, I don't know how many years

25:14

now, 12 years, 13 years. And the fighting

25:17

is absolutely brutal. It is

25:20

a meat grinder, to use a

25:22

horrific phrase. There is just so

25:24

much artillery and there's so much

25:26

destruction. These areas that

25:28

they're fighting over are

25:30

literally like craters, apocalyptic

25:32

moonscapes where they're moving one

25:34

or two metres a day back and forth

25:36

over a destroyed hedge with just

25:39

a huge death toll. So I think the

25:41

feeling right now, although there is a

25:43

cent of morale, because this is an

25:45

existential threat to their very nationality identity,

25:47

there is a feeling that the west

25:49

is letting them down. I think just

25:52

talking about artillery shows that Robbie was talking about,

25:54

I think the Estonian Defence Ministry put out

25:57

a report saying that Caius needed a minimum of

25:59

200... 100,000

26:01

artillery shells a month to retain its edge

26:03

against Russia. There just isn't that many shells

26:05

being made in Europe and the West to

26:07

be able to sustain that. I

26:09

think that's the big worry. I think in the

26:12

next few months, as we go deep into winter

26:14

and we see those gains that we saw in

26:16

the Northeast and in the East,

26:18

we see them being lost to Russia. That's

26:20

going to impact people back at home who are

26:22

also facing long-range drone

26:25

attacks and missile attacks,

26:27

disturbances to electricity, and just the general

26:30

exhaustion of having to live through war

26:32

for over two years. I want

26:34

to move on, but just lastly Prashan,

26:36

obviously we're talking about how the Ukrainians

26:39

are running out of, well, the running

26:41

out of people, morale, ammunition, and time,

26:43

all these things Putin has and

26:45

is willing to expend to fight the war.

26:48

I guess given the

26:50

real issues and questions

26:52

that the Ukrainian war

26:55

raises for European security

26:57

and defense, Prashan,

27:00

what are your predictions for 2024? Do

27:05

you think Zelensky will be forced

27:07

to come to the table before

27:09

Putin senses an advantage

27:11

to push the Ukrainians from state

27:13

defense into retreat and gaining more

27:15

territory? Probably mentioned the

27:18

changes in European politics in Slovakia and

27:20

of course, get Velders reentering such politics

27:22

at a time when the Netherlands were

27:24

supposed to lead the F-16 programs

27:27

for Ukraine next year along with

27:30

Denmark. What would your predictions

27:32

for 2024 be? My

27:35

predictions would actually be for Ukraine. I

27:37

think European and American support is going to deteriorate

27:39

further, I think, as we get into a 2024

27:41

election cycle in the United States. I

27:43

think the biggest thing that Ukraine to some degree

27:46

has reminded us of, which we should have known

27:48

before, is that there is a,

27:51

too often in military tactics, we think about

27:53

strategy versus tactics. Actually, there's a

27:55

third level that I often think about and this is

27:57

the one that Ravi touched on, which is there's existential.

28:00

And the United States just do not grasp

28:02

how important this is to Russia. At

28:04

a real visceral level, this is not a

28:06

strategic move by Vladimir Putin. This is his

28:09

perception. Now, you can disagree with the rationality

28:11

of it. This is a sort of existential

28:13

play. And that is just not

28:15

the game that the West is playing. This is not

28:17

a strategic war from Russia's point of view. And so

28:20

they will continue to fight until the very end because

28:22

Vladimir Putin's politics, his legacy, his entire structure he has

28:24

built in the Russian economy is geared to work with

28:26

now in a way that is just not the case.

28:29

And you know, belted on this as well. I

28:31

mean, the 200,000 artillery shells, you know, Europe

28:33

has this commitment to provide a million. You

28:36

know, they're nowhere close to that. And

28:38

even that would just be a sort of

28:40

temporary gauze over what is just this horrific

28:42

wound. I mean, they pledged that almost this time

28:45

last year, didn't they? And that's just entirely failed

28:47

to materialize. I mean, we talked about it the

28:49

last time we recorded this podcast last Christmas. Can

28:52

I add there that so far they've only delivered about 480,000 to less than

28:54

half. And

28:58

if you think about 200,000 a month,

29:01

then that sort of puts it into a perspective

29:04

here. As everyone's been saying,

29:06

Russia's got time. And it doesn't matter that the

29:08

casualties is apparently equal to the US 315,000 casualties

29:14

now. They don't mind. And Ukraine

29:17

is just being absolutely pulverized and they're fighting

29:19

over patches of land that looked like hell,

29:21

basically. This goes back to this possibly

29:24

apocryphal quote that, you know, I heard in Iraq, but then

29:26

was often used in Afghanistan as well, which is the sort

29:28

of militants who are fighting the United States would often say,

29:30

you know, you've got the clocks and we've got the time.

29:33

And I really feel like this is what's playing out here, too.

29:35

Well, I want to move on to

29:38

the US election. We're at a funny

29:40

point in the race at the moment.

29:42

Robbie, I can see you smiling already.

29:44

So I'm looking forward to hearing you

29:47

talk on this. I mean, the Iowa

29:49

caucuses, they actually start in January. I

29:51

was horrified to find out. And then we

29:53

have also the New Hampshire primary start at

29:55

the end of the month. Also, one

29:57

of Trump's civil trials begins in January.

30:00

Eugene Carroll versus Donald

30:02

Trump. I mean, Robbie, the

30:04

world is obviously watching this, the world is

30:07

obviously very anxious about the result. There's

30:10

a lot riding on this election, not just

30:12

for America, but obviously for frankly, all of us.

30:14

So Robbie, who is going to win in November?

30:16

Oh, I'm so glad you asked because I absolutely

30:19

know. No,

30:21

it is used a technical term,

30:23

a giant dumpster fire here in

30:26

American politics. I think people in

30:28

Washington, and maybe another capital, in

30:30

allied countries, follow sort of

30:32

every turn of the screw, every TikTok

30:35

on who's up, who's down this week

30:37

or that week. Most voters just don't

30:40

pay attention to that. But I do think

30:42

as polls numbers start coming out in

30:44

January, February, March, those are going to matter

30:46

a lot more than what we saw six

30:48

months ago when everyone was talking about DeSantis.

30:50

There is a big push right now to

30:52

try to vault either Haley or DeSantis to

30:55

the top among all of the never-Trump or

30:57

faction of the party, which is a lot

30:59

bigger in Washington than it is in the

31:01

rest of the country. How that works out

31:03

remains to be seen. Haley in recent polls

31:05

has surged to almost 30%, almost doubled her

31:09

numbers in New Hampshire, a really key early

31:11

first state in the primary caucus here

31:13

compared to Trump's 44%. She's inching her

31:15

way out that all of these anyone

31:17

but Trump initiatives from the political right

31:20

just sort of reek of desperation here.

31:23

And it's clear, you know, voters have shown

31:25

that the more you know, these establishment political

31:27

machineries push back on Trump, that you know,

31:29

the more the support for Trump surges here.

31:31

I think if you asked

31:33

every single American voter, do they want a

31:35

Trump-Biden rematch, a lot of people would be

31:37

in agreement that the answer that is a

31:40

resounding no. But it looks like that is

31:42

where things are going. Because it was so

31:44

fun the first time. It was a blast.

31:46

It was fun. It was relaxing. It was

31:48

just very amusing. Yeah. I mean, I think

31:50

this time, a lot of concerns we've heard

31:52

on the foreign policy and the domestic front

31:54

here is that a Trump term two would

31:56

not be the same as a Trump term

31:58

one by any means. You

32:00

know, he had the so-called adults in the

32:03

room, this axis of very experienced foreign policy

32:05

heavyweights. All of them eventually turned

32:07

on him as former chief of staff, defense

32:09

secretary, national security advisor, secretary of state. He's

32:11

not going to have that. And his team

32:13

is made clear to reporters, to his constituents

32:16

that they're going to come back with a

32:18

vengeance. And the most important

32:20

thing for joining Trump's administration, above

32:22

all else, above skills, experience

32:24

will be loyalty. And that's incredibly concerning for

32:27

a lot of these foreign policy issues that

32:29

we've been talking about. Well Prashant, I

32:31

want to ask your thoughts on

32:33

what Robbie has just said, but also

32:36

given that it

32:38

is going to be a bump a year for

32:41

elections, I think more than half

32:43

of the global population will be going to the

32:45

ballot box at some point in 2024. Well,

32:48

I mean, first, can I just share your despair

32:51

that the US election campaign is now thought to

32:53

be in full swing and we're 11 months away?

32:55

I don't know how American political reporters have the

32:57

stamina to just relentlessly do this. This

32:59

week's in Britain feels just terminally too

33:02

long. This will sound sort of gauzy

33:04

to some degree, but this is actually moments where we

33:06

see what these populations think. When the rubber hits the

33:08

road, India is going to be a fascinating one because,

33:11

you know, Narendra Modi is, for

33:13

reasons to do with my heritage as well as my

33:15

family, I'm sort of disproportionately in the Indian election, but

33:17

also because I think it is geopolitically extremely significant.

33:19

His poll numbers kind of, depending

33:21

on how you look, they're not as good as

33:23

they were in 2019, but it doesn't look like

33:25

he's going to be booted for power. The question

33:27

with Modi is always, you know, who comes after

33:29

him? What is the kind of

33:32

post-Modi look like in India, whether that's Yogi, if

33:34

you're not in Uttar Pradesh or some likely

33:36

more radical figure than during the Modi? And

33:38

what that does to the kind of

33:40

broader kind of fabric. India's, you know, a

33:43

friend of mine once told me that India

33:45

has always been a conservative country that's sort

33:47

of grafted a liberal elite on top of

33:49

it that has moderated a lot of the

33:51

sort of structural difficulties that the

33:53

country faces. And Modi is

33:55

obviously not part of that liberal elite. He

33:58

often kind of disparages them using... Com

34:00

Market, Sat and things like that stokes

34:02

the longer this goes on I think

34:04

the more divided into politics becomes. which

34:06

has I think long term consequences for

34:09

the sort of secular history, media and.

34:11

He. We can interpret this purely as a domestic

34:13

political and Burberry to country but actually this

34:15

has huge f one of kitchens because I

34:17

see it in it is a real kind

34:19

of joke with will swing state there's a

34:21

reason United States is really core to get

34:23

there and it's partly to do with China,

34:26

partly because you know be nice. It's for

34:28

decades has had this dream that you the

34:30

as light as for bringing democracy that will

34:32

help United States are pronounced. Christmas

34:36

The election in the I do think that

34:38

the United States watch and will be the

34:40

most globalising of get by. A long way.

34:42

And not just because bigger size would

34:44

because the way India moves in the

34:47

next. Five ten, fifteen

34:49

years will we We define how

34:51

you know liberal values but also

34:53

the kind of hard, well party.

34:56

Movie Chiptune sort of develop. And

34:58

sell you are now your international

35:00

correspondent for the Independent. Easy and

35:02

unleashed. From being permanently based in

35:04

the Middle East, where you've course

35:06

you know you saw the pointy

35:08

end of Us policy and how

35:10

it affects people. A the sees,

35:12

how do you think the world

35:14

is gonna be watching? Who wins

35:16

the White House? And given that

35:18

you're now, you're patch is the

35:20

world's now rather than just one

35:22

region in particular. Talk to me

35:24

about what Twenty Twenty Four has

35:27

in store for you. Will absolutely

35:29

I would. just one of the quickly add

35:31

that Egypt's election results are enhanced on T

35:33

C. One. Surprising.

35:36

Given by eighty nine point six percent which he

35:38

down from his last he wins and ninety. Seven

35:40

percent but at the i just a thought in as

35:42

we talking as present with a key about. Festival a

35:45

Democracy The thanks Talking about elections in this

35:47

part the while the mean I think one

35:49

of the biggest subjects and this. Is

35:51

the Middle East at the moment?

35:53

Is the impact of bidens chances

35:55

because of what's happening here. right

35:57

now where i am in jerusalem as clean

35:59

a lot of young Americans

36:02

who care about the

36:05

Palestinian situation. And

36:07

I think the US is greenlighting, as

36:09

they see it, of a

36:11

very, the most intense bombardment

36:13

of Gaza that has resulted in over

36:15

19,000 people being killed according to

36:17

the health ministry, 70% of them, women

36:19

and children, has impacted Biden's popularity. And

36:21

I think there was an NBC poll

36:23

that talked about 70% of people aged

36:25

between 18 and 34 were saying that

36:28

Biden had got it wrong. So I

36:30

think that could actually end up being quite

36:32

a major part of the US elections, as

36:35

we see this conflict roll on,

36:37

particularly if there isn't a ceasefire

36:39

and the death toll keeps rising.

36:41

I think there's going to

36:43

be a lot of concerns from Ukraine about this election

36:46

as well. I mean, they're already worried by,

36:48

you know, the outcome of a Republican

36:50

win, at least that's what people have been saying to

36:52

me on the ground. And they're, to be honest, worried

36:54

that the Democrats don't care so much anymore. But

36:57

for the Ukrainians, they

36:59

need that lifeline of military

37:01

support, not just words,

37:04

not just statements, but actual

37:06

hard artillery. I think

37:08

they are very, very concerned as

37:10

the Gileese Key Month drag on,

37:12

and as that front line moves

37:14

against them, then an election

37:16

that doesn't go there, you know, doesn't go

37:18

well for them could be a major problem.

37:21

So I think that's what will be the

37:23

two biggest sort of

37:25

foreign international spins on elections

37:27

globally next year, at least from

37:29

where I'm standing. And Robbie, since you covered

37:32

the State Department, I thought what Prashant was

37:34

saying in terms of the you know, the

37:36

role that the US plays in terms of

37:39

promoting, as far as

37:41

it can, I guess, a well functioning democracy

37:44

may be impacted in the years since January

37:46

6. And the risk that we could have,

37:49

you know, efforts to undermine

37:51

US democracy once again, I

37:53

mean, big, big

37:55

elections next year, India,

37:57

Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico.

38:00

Brazil, this country, Britain, we may

38:02

have a few more prime ministers

38:04

before we next go to the

38:06

polls next year. I think

38:09

the State Department, I think must be one of

38:11

the most interesting beats because you get to cover

38:13

the view from the US

38:16

and how the US is trying to

38:18

steer itself in the world, but also

38:20

the view reflected back at you and

38:22

what people overseas are telling you about

38:24

America's standing in the world. I mean,

38:27

in your time covering US

38:29

foreign policy, what

38:31

has been sort of the impact

38:33

of the tests to American democracy?

38:35

And do you think there

38:38

is an impact for struggling democracies overseas?

38:40

I think you hit the nail on the head there.

38:42

To sum it up on one sentence, everyone's really worried.

38:45

You know, I think also two other elections

38:47

that I think are just as important

38:49

for US foreign policy wonks that you

38:52

didn't mention. The first is Taiwan, where

38:55

that election goes in terms of how

38:57

they approach Beijing, their relationship with Beijing.

38:59

There's a lot of fear here over

39:01

China making a play to grab Taiwan

39:03

in the same way Russia did Ukraine.

39:05

And would that drag the United States

39:07

into a war with China? Those are

39:09

coming up in January. Another one is

39:11

South Africa's elections, where the ANC, the

39:13

ruling party is just hemorrhaging support left

39:15

and right after years of graft and

39:17

corruption and mismanagement. There's a worry that

39:19

they could end up being forced to

39:21

form a coalition with a far left

39:23

party. And because the United

39:26

States has anchored a lot of its engagement

39:28

with Africa, with the so-called global

39:30

south, this term here I'm using in air

39:32

quotes that I kind of hate, but everyone

39:34

seems to be using now a lot of

39:36

that through South Africa and the BRICS, I

39:38

could have another outsize impact on African elections.

39:41

Going back to US elections, everyone's worried,

39:43

particularly at the State Department, which was

39:46

sort of at the epicenter of Trump's

39:48

Washington fights with the so-called swamp and

39:50

what he saw as a deep state

39:52

in terms of foreign policy was obviously

39:55

at the center of his

39:57

first impeachment scandal here too. plays

40:00

out, I think we'll get a preview of

40:02

that in how the election happens even before

40:04

the results come in. If Trump starts laying

40:06

the groundwork for doubting election results in the

40:09

months before the election, if

40:11

he comes out with more provocative foreign

40:13

policy platforms that would cast doubt on

40:15

US commitments to NATO, on US commitments

40:17

to Ukraine, even talking about that before

40:19

the election, I think could have a

40:22

real outsized impact on morale in Ukraine,

40:24

on how Russia views the

40:26

next phase of the war strategically. And

40:29

yeah, and since you were asking us to

40:31

make predictions, I will go ahead and

40:33

make predictions that I think it will

40:35

be a Trump-Biden election. Biden will narrowly

40:37

eke out a win. The Democrats will

40:39

narrowly lose the Senate and gain a

40:41

narrow majority in the House. And

40:44

it will be another four years of

40:46

muddling through political quagmires

40:48

and headaches and crisis after crisis. And then

40:50

we can come back for another podcast to

40:53

talk about how messed up US politics are

40:55

and how it's impacting the world. So

40:58

there is my bold, happy, rosy

41:00

prediction for you. I'm reminded by

41:02

the fact that President Xi instructed

41:04

the People's Liberation Army to be

41:06

in a position whereby they could

41:08

attack and seize

41:10

Taiwan by 2027. There

41:14

is a chance that whoever is in

41:16

the White House, whoever wins the 24

41:18

election, may be the president

41:20

who could potentially be facing

41:22

a confrontation with China.

41:24

Now, if you think Biden is going

41:26

to win, just humor me with this.

41:29

If it is President Trump 2.0, are

41:32

we sleepwalking our way into

41:35

a conflict with China, a superpower

41:37

conflict? The short answer is

41:40

we are absolutely sleepwalking into a new

41:42

Cold War with China. How that would

41:44

translate into a hot war remains to

41:46

be seen. It's clear that part

41:49

of the anti-Ukraine faction of the

41:51

Republican parties are national security hawks.

41:54

So we have to stop delivering all these ammo

41:56

supply munitions to Ukraine because we have to bulk

41:58

up for the big one again. against China here.

42:01

That argument is disingenuous in my mind,

42:03

given that they're very different wars that

42:05

would require very different munitions and equipment

42:08

and logistics and supply lines, et cetera,

42:10

et cetera. But it is one that

42:12

has taken root. So you could see

42:14

a trunk 2.0, if

42:16

Beijing decides to start making a plate toward

42:18

Taiwan, sort of pull up the

42:21

drawbridge on all of its Ukraine aid to look

42:23

at that. I think it's too

42:25

soon to tell. I think that no matter

42:27

who wins, there's gonna be a really hawkish,

42:29

hard posture toward China here. But

42:32

obviously the tenor and tone of that is

42:34

gonna change vastly if Biden wins versus if

42:36

Trump wins. I mean, the

42:38

one thing that both left

42:40

and right can agree on in Washington right now

42:42

is we need to get tough on China. And

42:45

so I think you'll see that be pretty

42:47

consistent across the board ahead of the 2024

42:50

elections. In terms

42:52

of next year, from my

42:54

side, at the moment I

42:56

seem to be very much focused on

42:58

multiple different conflicts. And I'm less looking at the

43:00

sort of wider elections, political side

43:03

of it, just because this violence in

43:05

front of my eyes is happening every

43:07

day. My biggest concern

43:09

for next year is that we are

43:11

going to see lots more

43:13

bloodshed. In the last few months, we've seen

43:16

already historic high levels of people being killed.

43:18

If you look at the statistics of the

43:20

people killed in Gaza, Ukraine is

43:22

going to drag on. There's no way this

43:24

is gonna end soon. We haven't even discussed

43:27

Sudan that is still happening. And I'm getting

43:29

messages from Darfur of the horrific killings

43:31

that are happening there. And that's really dropped off

43:34

the international global theater arena.

43:37

So my concern really next year is whilst

43:40

maybe parts of the world are distracted by

43:42

elections, we're going to see civilians

43:44

really, you

43:46

know, horrifically impacted with surge in death

43:49

toll and horrific conditions in places like

43:51

Gaza and in Ukraine. And

43:53

that actually next year is going to be a very,

43:55

very grim year for people because I

43:57

don't see any immediate... short-term

44:00

solutions to these crises. That's

44:03

it for this episode of One Decision,

44:05

and that's all from us in 2023.

44:09

Without sounding too soppy, thank you so

44:11

much for joining us this year. I

44:13

hope you've enjoyed all the fascinating conversations

44:15

about big global decisions as much as

44:17

I have. I have learned so much

44:19

from all of our guests and our

44:21

co-host, Sir Richard Dearlove, and I really hope

44:23

you have too. If you enjoyed

44:25

the conversation today, why not subscribe to our

44:28

podcast so you never miss an episode. We

44:30

have new episodes every Thursday. From me and

44:32

the team, thank you so much for listening,

44:34

and see you in 2024.