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On this edition of Parallax Views, Quincy Institute research associate Lee Schlenker joins us to unpack the Trump administration’s escalating pressure campaign against Cuba and why Marco Rubio’s hardline approach may be pushing the island, and U.S.-Cuba relations, toward a dangerous breaking point. Drawing on Lee’s recent Responsible Statecraft article “As Rubio turns into punisher, Cubans wary of final blow,” we examine the administration’s strategy of intensified sanctions, economic pressure, and threats aimed at forcing political change in Havana.

The conversation also explores the political influence of South Florida’s Cuban exile community and the Cuba-America lobbying apparatus, including how decades of exile politics continue to shape U.S. foreign policy toward Havana. Lee explains the internal contradictions of the administration’s strategy, why the pressure campaign has yet to produce meaningful results, and how it could instead deepen instability, worsen humanitarian suffering, and push Cuba further into China’s extra-hemispheric sphere of influence.