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you get your podcasts, Welcome

1:07

to positive the World on Tommy Vietor on

1:09

Ben Rhodes. Then did President Biden just have

1:11

the most newsworthy ice cream stop in? there

1:13

is reversed himself. Yes,

1:17

I can guide can't quite remember one.

1:20

Quite like that I was I dm South

1:22

America like our way to stick it to

1:24

the White House Press Corps. You like you

1:26

know I'm interview this guy was actually very

1:28

soon. Are those Alexey are like you don't

1:30

usually think you're going to make massive news

1:32

on a late night show and. Certainly.

1:34

Not only that show tr but yeah I

1:36

guess it it he's into like what ever

1:38

we just like. I don't think set admin

1:40

the expected to get that answer no not

1:43

on the that either but knew that really

1:45

interesting interview right as you don't you press

1:47

them Harlem like was age and on Gaza

1:49

about to like nice isn't it always is.four

1:51

lane a geyser is no offense to get

1:53

a remake but the the in there are

1:55

guys right? that's one of the issues. The

1:57

other funny thing time is we've all been

1:59

there. Where. You. Know

2:01

he he. If you're stafford you mention something

2:04

to the principal and then your support. Like

2:06

is what Biden said as well. My national

2:08

scale advisor is it. It sounded like he

2:10

just talked to like dominated I'd well my

2:12

national supervisor just told me that there's a

2:15

ceasefire. Yeah steaks my son I like ah

2:17

down and as a whole we're going to

2:19

Everyone would get into more detail at all

2:21

this and once I get out today we're

2:24

going cover the latest from Gaza and how

2:26

this potential ceasefire news and how the conflict

2:28

is creating domestic political problems for President Biden.

2:30

Even as Netanyahu. Keeps laying out policy visions

2:33

that are are seem like this, numbing his

2:35

nose at the U S or if I'd

2:37

with the latest in the International Court of

2:39

Justice in efforts to deter attacks from Iranian

2:41

proxies groups the Middle East, the horrifying casualty

2:44

count from the war in Ukraine, the latest

2:46

news about the murder by Russia of opposition

2:48

leader Alex In of on the Russian interference

2:50

into our elections see packs. Gets. Real

2:53

weird and goes can international battle

2:55

talk but that's awesome. Allegations against

2:57

President Mexico, the Saudi sick Miami,

2:59

and then Taylor Swift. A

3:01

be doing battle with Australia the mum your numbers

3:03

have nots and like if I'm excited I like both

3:05

tell us of content and australian condemned so surreal us

3:07

and ready for it and then ben you to

3:09

sit or interview. what are we in here. So.

3:12

We haven't checked in on the situation

3:14

in Myanmar Noel where it's been pretty

3:16

astonishing. Their opposition forces is kind of

3:19

patchwork of different groups fighting against the

3:21

military junta that I came to full

3:23

power in a coup and twenty twenty

3:25

one the opposite for spending a lot

3:28

of ground am such as to why

3:30

why new who's a very prominent ah

3:32

activist for the Rohingya community but is

3:34

the most persecuted of they can use

3:36

in Myanmar meets busy didn't update on

3:39

what's going on the country, what is

3:41

the nature and. Ambition, The Opposition. What is

3:43

this situation for the Rynja about the separate a

3:45

lot in what can the U S in other

3:47

countries do So it's kind of a a check

3:49

in on an issue that we probably should check

3:52

in on more yeah important day and I'll sign

3:54

or something like near and dear to your heart

3:56

and vs yeah there when Twenty Twenty One Two

3:58

before then he I would. Pretty much every

4:01

year, starting in a god or like

4:03

twenty money. The last trip, twenty yeah.

4:05

I started going every year and by

4:07

Twenty eleven the last time I was

4:09

there was ah, I'm I'm going to

4:11

say probably twenty Teaneck out and I'm

4:13

recovered. Yep, recovered travel times and slander

4:15

for now has lots of us. I'd

4:17

love to go back. But.

4:20

Noom that's on the cards for little ah

4:22

yes, could get rid of a a Huda

4:25

Jaeger years into to have another go back

4:27

work on our houses. Where can I turn

4:29

to break Or it's Let's start with Gaza

4:32

because there are some major updates. As you

4:34

mentioned the Top: As we mentioned, the top

4:36

President Biden sounded a hopeful note on prospects

4:38

for a ceasefire about during an appearance on

4:41

Late Night with Seth Meyers and then during

4:43

this ice cream stops. Wasn't a the interview

4:45

First three fast forward with difficulty but here's

4:47

the path forward. But first of all there

4:50

are the. Hostages been how must be

4:52

released and then we gonna and

4:54

he subprincipal agreements or be a

4:56

cease fire while that takes place

4:58

Ramadan coming up and there's been

5:00

an agreement by the Israelis are

5:02

they would not engage in activities

5:04

during Ramadan is wealth and order

5:06

to give us time to get

5:08

all the hostages out. That gives

5:10

us time to begin to move

5:12

and directions at a lot of

5:14

Arab countries. you prepared movement for

5:16

example Saudi Arabia is ready to

5:18

recognize Israel Jordan is it gets

5:20

Egypt. Her for six other states

5:22

have a work with Cutter and

5:24

so there's a process under way

5:27

that I think if we get

5:29

said that temporary ceasefire for going

5:31

to be able to move in

5:33

a direction where we can change

5:35

the dynamic and not have a

5:37

two state solution immediately been a

5:39

process to get to a two

5:41

state solution process to guarantee Israel's

5:43

security an independent So and Palestinians

5:45

but without sammy been able us

5:47

for example of why invite in

5:49

a in. Own another country to

5:52

provided defenses, As we mentioned

5:54

during that ice cream oh tr, keep a

5:56

jigsaw than on the hook to land the

5:58

plane by Monday. Though that the

6:00

specifics of the see bar that have

6:03

been recorded or complicated, the Times reported

6:05

that the Israeli war Cabinet approved a

6:07

six week truce for the release of

6:09

forty hostages. This would also require Israel

6:11

allowing much, much more aid into Gaza.

6:13

They're also proposals to release a certain

6:15

number of Palestinian prisoners being held by

6:18

Israel. For the release of every hostage,

6:20

there's certain like math equations for different

6:22

types of people. There's like a certain

6:24

number of Palestinian prisoners. For every female

6:26

hostage being held is another number for

6:28

the release of civilian men. Over a

6:30

certain age and this is where the

6:33

the politics I think for Netanyahu get

6:35

complicated because masses demanding people in prison

6:37

who are convicted of murder or people

6:39

who are says to have been a

6:41

part of terrorist attacks or this is

6:43

where you know you could see many.

6:45

I was coalition try to like pull

6:47

the plug on any ceasefire deal make

6:49

it harder for him so that's why

6:51

think Iraq and unearthly Watching this on

6:53

Monday Net Yo said he proposed a

6:55

plan to his work cabinet to evacuate

6:58

civilians rafa the city in southern Gaza

7:00

were an estimated one point four million

7:02

dozens are currently sheltering that would be

7:04

done in advance the major military operation

7:06

or that everyone but Netanyahu seem to

7:08

think would be catastrophic. So Ben negotiators

7:10

are meeting this week and cutter the

7:12

racing to get to cease fire deal

7:14

done before Ramadan certain March tenth. How

7:16

hopeful are you feeling? I mean it's

7:18

ensuring the President Biden would. Can.

7:21

A preview at it makes me think he's pretty awful.

7:24

I think so am and like

7:26

I do think that. It's.

7:28

Not the main point here, but. Probably.

7:30

Don't do this again. Skin tone and

7:32

given you know that's a good no

7:35

gravity the circumstances. but. I.

7:37

Think you made a good summary. It's pretty

7:39

clear the administration's penis which is try

7:41

to get a ceasefire, get as many hostages

7:43

out and see size you can make to

7:45

see are so long as it becomes harder

7:48

for Israel to resume it's military operation on

7:50

the back in the ceasefire and then

7:52

use this time of the ceasefire to get

7:54

some diplomatic process going with the Saudis and

7:57

other Arab countries both around. Some.

7:59

Dogs a plan the and around at

8:01

the pursuit of tossing stayed in accent

8:03

from won't normalization Israel. that's clearly it's

8:05

been the to play that the missus

8:07

has in mind for some time. I

8:12

was struck by the optimism and if they'd

8:14

land that plane you know that would be

8:16

some significant progress. My eyes no question about

8:18

that's from the Israeli side. Like you said

8:21

I'm sure there are elements of the right

8:23

wing coalition and and now as had want

8:25

to release Paulson prisoners the don't want to

8:27

add what in a lot of a the

8:30

don't want to. Not. Going

8:32

to Rafa And so there's a Israel

8:34

piece of this that remains in question.

8:36

and they're on the homicide and your

8:38

masses actually can afford simple butter on

8:40

this, and they may be trying to

8:42

leverage the negotiation. Get out as many

8:44

prisoners as they can so we'll see

8:46

if Hamas is truly committed to it.

8:48

I wonder about this Arab peace. Because

8:52

I just. Near. The the

8:54

two things that I'd I'd. I'd raise.

8:56

Or first of all, Who's

8:59

in Gaza? Like in our I think

9:01

that the the preferred option would be

9:03

that there's some Arab kind of peacekeeping

9:05

force that is helping to secure Gaza

9:07

while reconstruction proceed and yet Israel's not

9:10

agree to that. All Israel's can suggested

9:12

that they want to have this kind

9:14

of factor control over Gaza and then

9:16

also. I do wonder.

9:18

I mean obviously we seem to a

9:20

brand records at Arab said some Tikrit

9:22

be willing to take the step toward

9:25

normalization it sets is a pretty. Big.

9:27

Risk for a. New

9:29

Arab states like Saudi Arabia take

9:32

com normalize relations with Israel. right?

9:35

In the wake of I am killing thirty

9:37

thousand Palestinians and so I just I don't

9:39

know. I mean it is that all comes

9:41

together that would be quite. Know

9:44

remarkable. It does feel like there's a lot

9:46

of different pieces this that have to fit

9:48

in a puzzle board Here at a time

9:50

when the mentor and circumstance and as as

9:52

as bad as them been yeah I mean

9:55

to that point in me the Egyptians in

9:57

the Jordanians had been aired wrapping aid yeah

9:59

I saw. That the on the you

10:01

An organization that able to operate on

10:03

the ground in Gaza said the last

10:05

time they are able to deliver food

10:07

aid to northern Gaza was January twenty

10:09

third. So over a month ago so

10:11

people in Northern Guys are just starving

10:13

to death. In In in general the

10:15

average number trucks heading into Gaza is

10:17

something like fifty to sixty truck's not

10:19

two hundred like the Israelis promises way

10:21

under and Un officials are saying that

10:23

these A deliveries had been severely hampered

10:25

because there were Israeli airstrikes on the

10:27

police officers who are guarding these convoys.

10:30

And now they're not operating in supporting

10:32

these a deliveries anymore so the convoys

10:34

are getting attacked by people are desperate

10:36

or criminal elements for china like get

10:38

the stuff in salad so it's a

10:40

credible dire situations Yeah it seems like

10:42

we've reached the tipping point that people

10:44

in when you bad for some time

10:47

of just people. Not. Having enough

10:49

food, Not having enough water. They're.

10:51

Not been any hospital infrastructure laughed

10:54

And and they're being the beginnings

10:56

of the spread of disease as

10:58

people don't have clean water and

11:01

I don't have any sanitation. A

11:03

And and frankly this kind of

11:05

no effort to kind of starve

11:08

Unwra. Is a

11:10

part of that. pictures well and so

11:12

one of the many reasons to try

11:14

to get a ceasefire is it does

11:16

feel like absent that. In

11:18

a major change in the dynamic of getting

11:20

assistance in there could be this kind of.

11:23

Exponential. Spiral the humanitarian crisis

11:25

and and that has to be.

11:27

Your. Friend of mine for everybody I think because.

11:30

It's it's obvious that anybody falling this

11:32

is that we've reached that point needs

11:35

no longer morning about some future risk

11:37

of all these developers tapping. Now they're

11:39

they're still preserved by is obviously feeling

11:41

some serious political pressure to get a

11:43

Caesar in Gaza. Were taping this on

11:45

Tuesday, February twenty seventh. Right now, Michigan

11:48

voters are going to the polls. There's

11:50

this broad effort to get people to

11:52

vote uncommitted instead of for biden in

11:54

an effort to show or to be

11:56

protest vote. In his recent Gaza policy

11:58

organizer save they. Get is to

12:00

get ten thousand uncommitted votes. But it's worth

12:02

noting that Uncommitted got about eleven percent of

12:04

the vote during the Obama Twenty Twelve Real

12:07

Act which was about twenty thousand votes. I

12:09

wonder what we did I did my you

12:11

know I don't know I don't remember why

12:13

that happened yeah and mental know he their

12:15

knees as the collision around the i think

12:17

there's it's like I'll a large uncommitted vote

12:19

off in in Michigan but it look at

12:21

I don't know there will be numbers are

12:23

both time to boy was going to. This

12:25

is interesting to see the expectation setting so

12:27

well. Maybe that's just smart politics or been.

12:29

Maybe there's something. Else going on. Also

12:31

in terms of domestic news, on Sunday

12:33

a senior airman in the Us Air

12:35

Force named Aaron personnel lit himself on

12:37

fire and friday Israeli Embassy in Washington

12:40

to protest the war beforehand. He posted

12:42

a video saying he did one be

12:44

complicit in genocides and he shouted free

12:46

Palestine as he burned and later died

12:48

at the hospital is horrible scene there.

12:50

Earlier today Netanyahu release a pushing Back

12:53

and Bidens obviously true statement from that

12:55

and B C interview. He does heard

12:57

that Israel is losing international support for

12:59

the. War Netanyahu claimed that he's been

13:01

leading an effort aimed at quote countering international

13:04

pressure to end the war ahead of time

13:06

and mobile I support for Israel. Not.

13:08

Sure that has been successful. Now the me

13:10

that Korea. Ninety. Of

13:13

them are also dead Guy released a

13:15

plan for posts were Gaza that included

13:17

Israel retaining indefinite military control over Gaza

13:19

while allowing thousands without links to Hamas

13:21

to act as civilian ministers. but it

13:23

seemed like that languages frame to say

13:25

the Palestinian Authority could not be in

13:27

charge. and then today that I saw

13:29

that the Prime minister the Palestinian Authority

13:31

of resigned but not President Abbas which

13:33

is or of an interesting. Shake.

13:35

Up in their. Yeah, that there's

13:37

a lot of pieces moving around here. I mean,

13:39

in the domestic politics space, we'll see what happens

13:42

at the uncommitted vote. I mean it's also the

13:44

question of you know they have been reports said.

13:47

Know it's hard to get circuits get a

13:49

Michigan sickening a protest? Yeah, you know. And

13:51

so it's not just the vote share, it's

13:53

also like the enthusiasm a lot of people

13:55

that are sitting in Out or the kind

13:57

of people that might have been organizes for

13:59

democrats. But also I can you go

14:01

to college campuses in you can you gonna

14:04

communities I Dearborn and just show up at

14:06

a when people this angry am so that

14:08

bears watching as well as yang committed account

14:10

I think that guy's a piece that you

14:12

mention the again the two big outstanding. Gaps.

14:15

Beyond the conduct of the war are

14:18

this question of like who administers Gaza

14:20

and is are some recognition of a

14:22

Palestinian state are some at least as

14:24

professional recognition opposing states and again it

14:26

is bears repeating in both those questions

14:28

is was way out of step with

14:31

the not just Us, but just about

14:33

everybody else and and that. That.

14:35

Speaks to whether or not this deal

14:37

can endure. So let's say they get

14:39

the deal. Whether or not that deal

14:41

lead somewhere kind depends on those two

14:43

questions: Gaza administration and passing states. And

14:45

the thing about the passing thirty, It

14:47

seems like you know the Us and

14:49

other countries are probably pressing for some

14:51

reform and so you get some resignations

14:53

and you get their new technocrats in

14:55

there or something. But it's gotta be

14:57

more than that. I'm in for the

14:59

sake of Palestinians nino the deaths. There

15:01

has to be this kind of bottom

15:04

up. You know investment

15:06

in a meaningful leadership that is close

15:08

to the community. You know the problem

15:10

is not the caliber, the technocrat. Although

15:12

you know you can always try to

15:14

tinker with ads, it's about the legitimacy

15:16

or is this kind of old man

15:18

Mcmurdo boss sitting in Ramallah and the

15:20

people random does he cannot connect down

15:22

to the civil society to young keyboard

15:24

civilian population so I'd like to see

15:26

that effort not to focus on like

15:28

who are the ministers in the Ps.

15:30

but can you take resources and directed

15:32

to people that have your credibility in

15:34

these communities? Yeah, and of years completely

15:36

broke and that's good Be an enormous challenge

15:39

for resurgence of the beginning. I was planned

15:41

the laid out for for postwar Gaza says

15:43

that Israel's gonna take control of a sliver

15:45

of territory in Gaza along the border to

15:48

provide as a buffer zone and prevent another

15:50

October seventh that is incredibly controversial or the

15:52

plan does not stipulate whether or not Israeli

15:54

settlers will be allowed to return to Gaza

15:57

which was pretty big to they commission. Yeah,

15:59

the. Also, the dismantling of Unwrap the

16:01

only Un agency operating Gaza yeah and

16:03

under A by the way, They said

16:05

that they have lost four hundred and

16:07

sixty million dollars and donor funding since

16:09

Israel accuse twelve and or employees are

16:11

participating. The October Seventh attacks are and

16:13

they'll be out of money by March

16:16

Seventh to like desperation and I'm every

16:18

only darkness And we've talked about a

16:20

soap and but but I. Would

16:22

is achieved by that. You know it

16:25

is not some other entity they can

16:27

perform these services. I'm as we talked

16:29

about this, tens of thousands of new

16:31

people that are associate with Conrad because

16:33

they perform all these very services. I

16:35

just think it's the wrong way of

16:38

going about it Enough to starving the

16:40

only means of reaching of Palestinians in

16:42

Gaza does not feel like the right

16:44

solution to the problem of Trump. Eat

16:46

those twelve people in our do it

16:48

use putative to the the broader population.

16:51

Yeah I mean get us. An update

16:53

from a Us perspective is last week:

16:55

Tony Blinken. Ah, Announced that

16:57

a any expansion Israeli settlements in the

16:59

West Bank would be in inconsistent with

17:01

international law. That was longstanding just policy

17:03

until the Trump folks river said i

17:05

think me I got to see Tony

17:07

do it I guess I kind of

17:09

reaction was i wonder why it took

17:11

so long yeah I actually nazi get

17:13

frustrated I did to be reminded that

17:15

they had done it yet because that

17:17

was Us policy for ever you know

17:20

And ah it did speak to the

17:22

kind of weird cautioned that they had

17:24

on this issue out of the game

17:26

because it's. Not it shouldn't be controversial

17:28

that settlements are inconsistent. National law, they

17:30

are in a hood. Saturday. that's a

17:32

big new finding By the night said

17:34

so ah again. I'm glad they did

17:36

it. I think what did Speak series

17:38

is another pathway year where the U

17:40

S New Ya society sanctions on a

17:42

few Settler A leaders. I don't know

17:44

why that shouldn't you go up to

17:47

people like Ben give urine people in

17:49

the government that are literally years and

17:51

saying. Crazy shit all the

17:53

time about yeah it, moving settlements

17:55

in, does people in Gaza and

17:58

wiping out the past. Indians taking

18:00

all the land. Like if that's not

18:02

Us policy, then again there should be

18:05

some consequences for the people that are

18:07

really driving an extremist agenda. And so

18:09

hopefully this is the beginning of a

18:11

of tackling that problem and not kind

18:13

of the end of a policy press.

18:16

Yeah, just yet. When When that yeah

18:18

I return to power and twenty twenty

18:20

two with as far as coalition, the

18:22

number of settlement expansions exploded, it went

18:24

from like it was like three acts.

18:27

Yeah I in Twenty Twenty three what

18:29

it was. The year before doesn't terms

18:31

like all the stage of the bureaucratic process so

18:33

it does seem like they've been acting with a

18:35

punitive wow syncing the news race know like there's

18:37

all this pressure for them to do more Gaza

18:39

they've really been focusing on the settlement piece of

18:41

it in this case belatedly but you know it

18:44

just for of it seemed it's a like. That.

18:46

The care in the sticker. And honestly

18:48

about the same thing yeah I'm in

18:51

the policy. yeah any a it speaks

18:53

Damn sure they're concerned that dead Settler

18:55

movement is the driving engine behind this

18:57

governing coalition address him, but that is

18:59

manifesting Gaza more than anywhere else To

19:02

a minute that the teachers in the

19:04

West Bank is concerned, he's well. But

19:06

it did as be to say we

19:08

talk about military assistance been conditioned. We

19:10

talk about calling for voting for Seaside

19:13

Un another path way of trying to

19:15

affect this new. Extremism on the

19:17

far right as a politics is

19:19

going more directly at the the

19:21

agenda and in the leadership of

19:23

the Settler movement in terms of

19:25

sanctions and and and calling out

19:27

the legality of have been Oppressed

19:29

Yeah, meet. Speaking as International legal

19:31

pressure last month we spoke about

19:33

the case of the International Court

19:35

of Justice that it they're brought

19:37

by South Africa accusing Israel of

19:39

committing genocide in Gaza. This week

19:41

hearings wrapped up in a different

19:43

case the his originally been brought

19:45

against Israel. And Twenty Twenty Two which

19:48

questioned if it's is violating international law

19:50

through the way it is controlled lands

19:52

in the West Bank Gaza in occupied

19:54

Jerusalem for the last fifty plus years.

19:56

so the scope is huge. Pizzas like

19:58

fifty countries participating is. It was refused

20:00

to take part in the proceedings. The U

20:03

S position is basically the I Cj should

20:05

not be attempting to resolve Israeli Palestinian conflict.

20:07

For an advisory opinion that is just based

20:10

on a case made by these a Palestinian

20:12

side that said the outcome could come a

20:14

few months it will be non binding by

20:16

our we talked with own a Half Away

20:19

again now see the founder and director

20:21

of the Center for for Global Legal Challenges

20:23

at Yale Law School and she talked to

20:25

us about just the wide ranging potential legal

20:28

ramifications from this case. I hear that. On

20:30

had to say if. Said. This

20:32

is an says that some or

20:34

all of the absence of Israel's

20:36

undertaken. And act at tear

20:38

tires and and an hour or And

20:41

Palestine and Healthy et. Al

20:43

are unlawful. The. Method has an

20:45

impact and other organs at the General Assembly

20:47

for all the different bodies of the General

20:49

Assembly that take that. And

20:52

decision under advisement. And

20:54

it may I sat the ways in

20:56

which those organs are willing to interact

20:59

with Israel and in a felipe Sands

21:01

and will and what is one the

21:03

more powerful presentations that were. I'd

21:05

give. An hour before the court

21:08

physically called on all states not

21:10

to add support and an assist

21:12

Israel going forward and he said

21:15

that the right to self determination

21:17

requires that member states. Bring.

21:19

Israel's occupation to an immediate and

21:21

and he said no aid, no

21:24

assistance Know complicity. no contribution by

21:26

for civil actions, No money, no

21:28

arms know trade, Know nothing. That's.

21:31

What he called on member

21:33

states to do. An An.

21:35

I think that that's what else than is

21:37

hoping it will get out of. This is

21:40

that if there is a decision. By.

21:42

The courts that the actions by

21:44

Israel are illegal than that is

21:46

going to cause a cascade at

21:49

that's the hope of the advocates

21:51

of this position. To

21:53

lead states to pull back support and

21:55

assistance for Israel as long as the

21:58

occupation as certainly as on his. Com

22:00

Pipe and continues. Pretty remarkable

22:02

the of the complexities this could create for

22:05

Us policy but these cases were not your.

22:07

The Us is kind of an an actor

22:09

to it as well because we are the

22:11

ones that are providing he and the bulk

22:13

of read the notes or since Israel and

22:15

and will not support into the the Us

22:18

government could find itself kind of. Dragged.

22:20

Into these legal proceedings and look,

22:23

I think, ah, whatever your view

22:25

of this. The

22:27

reality is. You. Know the

22:29

the kind of. Talking. Points

22:31

loop of the Us government released under

22:33

this administration wouldn't be under Trump's is

22:36

about the rules based order and and

22:38

in this business is this is the

22:40

enterprise. Topic is that made that that

22:42

is the rules based order even if

22:44

it's end of the criticism always of

22:46

the U is. We

22:49

like a rules based order when we're in

22:51

forcing news rules and other countries. It

22:54

again I think what this could do

22:56

is lead to a further fracturing of

22:59

whatever used to be the rules based.

23:01

Order because we seem to be moving

23:03

further and further into reality in which

23:05

all different. Big. Powerful states

23:08

just are being pretty selective on the

23:10

menu of the the rules that they

23:12

choose to fall in the times that

23:14

they do. And and so one outcome

23:16

could be ah, a further fracturing of

23:18

international system that the U S frankly

23:20

bills after warm or two and a

23:22

I did it. Whatever happens, I think

23:24

that is. A likely outcome

23:27

just depends on how much that via

23:29

Sasson A ring yeah, lots less och

23:31

about the reaction by Iran and ah,

23:33

it's proxy groups to the war in

23:35

Gaza. So a few weeks back and

23:37

Iranian proxy group fired a drone at

23:39

Us base in Jordan, the killed three

23:41

you a service members. that was one

23:43

of at least one hundred and seventy

23:45

attacks on Us troops in the Middle

23:47

East since mid October, and part of

23:49

this drastic escalation by Iranian forces since

23:51

the war started in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,

23:53

and Yemen. The Us responded to that

23:55

strike in Jordan. With airstrikes in

23:57

Iraq and Syria again seas around him and

23:59

proxy. And their binges wave after

24:01

wave of air strikes in Yemen. The idea

24:03

was it's her attacks and Us personnel or

24:05

in the case of the who these attacks

24:08

on ships in the Red Sea to the

24:10

New York Times had a piece this weekend

24:12

of look at the results are in a

24:14

sound that since the Us response in Iraq

24:16

and Syria. There have been no attacks

24:18

on Us bases in Iraq and only two minor

24:20

attacks in Syria so that's good. Ah The Times

24:22

reported that the had a dour D C went

24:24

to Baghdad and told his militia group space with

24:26

dial down because they didn't want to direct war

24:29

with us and be as Iranian officials believed it

24:31

would distract from Gaza. I think they thought they

24:33

are. We like the Pr war in Gaza and

24:35

it in one of the on them. Are

24:38

the situation Lebanon in Yemen is totally

24:40

difference has belied. Israeli forces are trading

24:42

shots daily, including there was Us Israeli

24:44

strike sixty miles deep into Lebanon recently

24:46

and then the hoot. The rebels in

24:48

Yemen keep attacking ships in the Red

24:50

Sea constantly and the U S, the

24:52

Uk, the broader coalition of other countries

24:54

keeps blown up with the targets of

24:57

think there's one over the weekend. So

24:59

bad I mean I know it's hard.

25:01

It's for me to see what does

25:03

and a clear take away. Now from

25:05

this story Rabid, you have any thoughts.

25:07

About what the says about like deterrence, what works? I

25:12

think that like. We shouldn't

25:14

over or under he'd this news in

25:16

the sense that it's pretty obvious. Said

25:18

the Iranians were kind of watching this

25:20

escalation happening and got to place even

25:22

before. By the way, the Us strikes

25:24

because they could feel those coming up

25:26

your Khatab Hezbollah, the group that was

25:29

responsible for the strike that killed the

25:31

asserts members were putting out seventeen like

25:33

okay, we're done you my lord, Every

25:35

about Yaya And and so it. It's

25:37

pretty clear that they won. A kind

25:39

of keep your head down for a

25:41

little bit here. And

25:44

I do think it's tied to both. This

25:46

thing at this is escalating, gonna be on

25:49

what we've and envisioned but also this idea

25:51

that like why don't we just keep the

25:53

focus on Gaza But at the same time

25:55

I wouldn't overstated either because there's been an

25:58

ad been floated he sings for. Here's

26:00

your know, the groups aren't going away.

26:03

And he had a the bigger more

26:05

powerful ones which are Lebanese, Hezbollah and

26:07

the who These they're kind of still

26:10

at added their own pace and and

26:12

sorry I think for the time being

26:14

like things have. Calmed. A bit

26:16

in this one area of Iraq and Syria and

26:19

that that's good but I don't think anybody should

26:21

think that that means that. Yeah we've personally restored

26:23

deterrence in that these groups or can change their

26:25

colors like or by way that the Us shouldn't

26:27

be thinking about whether or not as we said

26:30

a few weeks go it's a good idea even

26:32

have some these troops in these outposts in places

26:34

like serious and I'd actually be taking advantage of

26:36

this window to may be no take a look

26:38

at that footprint some reason can get some people

26:41

out of air said that there's not the next

26:43

and as a flare up does not as many

26:45

vulnerable a your. Service members in the way

26:47

but for the time being. You.

26:49

Know it is is is it feels like

26:51

we're new in a downward trajectory in this

26:54

one area of Iraq and Syria, but less

26:56

so in Yemen and in Lebanon. Yeah, I

26:58

mean that the Times analysis really ascribed lot

27:00

of a to to cousin Suleimani, the former

27:02

head of the Rg see who Trump assassinated

27:04

kept why these groups and a very tight

27:06

leash. Yeah, the new guy apparently gym a

27:09

lot more room to run a franchise model.

27:11

his hair was caused some problems for them

27:13

but I'm I'm so with you that I

27:15

think eyes solving the underlying problem in Gaza

27:17

is the way to damages for goods. But

27:19

there was some were rare. good news

27:21

that of around. And so there was

27:24

a new report from the International Atomic

27:26

Energy Agency or I yeah that shows

27:28

that Iran has been reducing it's stockpile

27:30

of nuclear weapons grade material to the

27:32

Wall Street Journal reported that for the

27:34

first time since they started producing highly

27:36

enriched uranium, it's sixty percent in twenty

27:38

twenty one around started to reduce that

27:40

stockpile by deluding it's if that all

27:42

sounds like technical jargon, that's okay, it

27:44

is. Just know that we don't want

27:46

Iran to have more highly enriched uranium

27:48

because that's the stuff you used. To make

27:50

a bomb. And the more and rich there's the

27:52

more quickly you can do. It's the new. This

27:54

new doesn't mean that their overall program is isn't

27:57

expanding it is. but it does seem like a

27:59

sign of Diaz. The to the Us and

28:01

other western countries who wants he sings

28:03

closely, then rings or fourth. it made

28:05

my like and the see nerd spidey

28:07

senses tingle a little bit and wonder

28:09

if this was some sort of my

28:11

confidence building efforts as part of that

28:14

under our secret talks we don't know

28:16

about throw mine or something. I know

28:18

that to awful to no no I

28:20

think that look the Iranians. Like you

28:22

said they they ramped up their program.

28:24

Congratulations Rondo Opponents I'm on day one

28:26

at the kind of capability if they

28:28

so choose to to potentially. Break glass

28:30

and may be get enough material for weapon

28:32

the data for gonna weaponize it? yeah but

28:35

of what I wondered that the two things

28:37

in your one is. Are. There

28:39

batum discussions and is is sometimes signal of

28:41

you know we're not looking for the nuclear

28:43

crisis now and maybe there's some. Diplomatic.

28:47

Pathway. Somewhere with the U S

28:49

toward some version of in Iran nuclear

28:51

agreement, it's probably not as ambitious as

28:54

last one or. You. Know that

28:56

the key partners to the Iranians are there

28:58

Russians in the Chinese are they talk and

29:00

of the Russians and Chinese and saying okay

29:02

let's not like introduce the nuclear piece of

29:04

this now. Like. Just near dollar

29:07

back a little bit you know.

29:09

keep the Afghan keep the focus

29:11

and Gaza that's embarrassing. The Americans

29:13

that's an know obviously undermining Israel

29:15

standing the world know that. Yeah,

29:18

this got to be some reason for hurts

29:20

your arms and a half to think that

29:22

it's some version of all three, right? Like

29:25

not looking for the the were of the

29:27

nuclear program at this point. Maybe some consultation

29:29

with their kind of T partners? And yeah,

29:31

maybe maybe some kind of back down conversations

29:34

that are just meant to signal a willingness

29:36

to talk about this? Maybe they could do.

29:38

I get the negotiator some ice cream and

29:41

like. Muscat, Are unaware?

29:43

Well Switzerland somewhere? I yeah Zurich's facility.

29:45

Good Geneva a vagina yeah the last

29:47

hours Oman, Geneva Vienna I went to

29:49

the Iran deal talks in Geneva know

29:51

this beautiful chalet on the lake and

29:53

just a ton of people smoking sags

29:56

yeah didn't like a lock out to

29:58

are smoking a desire to for measuring

30:00

ribbon much as that that does not

30:02

good for my health In the yeah

30:04

when I was everywhere I looked i

30:06

assumed like that plan would be like

30:08

a Cia I was initially had probably

30:11

I know what we're one of those

30:13

lobbies and you'd look on the lobby.

30:15

At. These things and think that like what

30:17

percentage of the people as lobby or or

30:19

and some intel was honored and temporary shelter

30:22

hey faggot they have like a flower lafell

30:24

for negatives as a lot eliciting i did

30:26

go to be your air pods aren't connected

30:28

nine phones and allow the oh oh absolutely

30:30

okay where it is he a quick break

30:32

but it's important has been so on March

30:34

seventeen to save a union member when you

30:36

to write those fucking awful the aid of

30:38

as I worked at be some bad record

30:41

thought that the dove record of this time

30:43

around if you want to watch with us.

30:46

Instead of the Parts of America youtube channel

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or the Friends of the Pod Discord where

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you can submit questions for us in the

30:53

chat or as that sounds like fun to

30:55

you, go to cricket.com/friends to learn more in

30:57

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Peggy maybe the reason he almost

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succeeded in betraying his country look

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for significant others were for you:

34:46

Get your podcast. So

34:54

we talked a lot last week about the

34:56

war in Ukraine and arouses year anniversary so

34:58

that a little shorter on that topic today.

35:00

But a couple things we wanted to flag

35:03

up First Hungary officially approved Sweden's entry into

35:05

Nato that comes after the Swedish Prime Minister

35:07

of Israel Hungary and announced Sweden's going to

35:09

provide hungry with for Swedish a chat so

35:12

so deals get done i guess Ben Sasse

35:14

artists but this along with our families entry

35:16

into Nato last spring means that De Niro

35:18

presence in the North Sea around the Baltics

35:21

will be held lot stronger which prudent will

35:23

hates. Ah, though I did rebid up. Finland

35:25

dismantled ninety percent of it's army and seventy

35:27

percent of it's navy and airforce after the

35:29

Soviet Union collapsed as a hell of a

35:32

peace dividend. For. Those guys are and

35:34

also looks like Dutch Prime Minister Mark Router

35:36

will be the next Sector General. So.

35:39

Either can I bought him Northern Route European

35:41

a bus you've been around forever. So yeah,

35:43

he's an obvious choice. you know the funny

35:45

me but the or about pieces. You

35:48

know, Orban. Things. That makes

35:51

him look like super strong to like hold

35:53

up Sweden for a while but in the

35:55

encana looks week for planes the I guess

35:57

it's like all you know look at me.

35:59

I showed that. In light be the spoiler

36:01

and how these people out and make the

36:03

Swedish Prime Minister come visit me but then

36:05

the day caves as so I actually don't

36:07

know that like he looks like such a.

36:09

Tough. Guy new I don't deserve as young

36:12

as three hundred. Yeah! some congratulations on

36:14

your for planned yeah where we have

36:16

have funded see that I was eyeballs

36:18

As in Sweden and a great country.

36:21

As a bunch of like you're aware

36:23

that under the surface and goes back

36:25

a hundred years, it's years ago, a

36:27

Viking. Saying. Happening. Under

36:30

the surface it if is sit at the fans

36:32

like Indian eight or volcanoes abdomen Dna I'm talking

36:34

made like the shit at the fan. I wouldn't

36:36

one of your swords or when I'm around with

36:38

that my nose beards are going to grow in

36:40

the swords. Korea if they're they're that are going

36:42

to take you up them. Are there some serious

36:44

do a damn in just but store I'm in

36:46

The Norwegians involved in the sedans them is that

36:48

decisions? But I'm saying. The. Did these

36:50

people the other of the reason born peaceful people

36:52

but I. Am. It

36:55

is a little aragon in There is

36:57

some foreign like viking comedy on Netflix

36:59

that the moment I try to get

37:01

into I did debt and take but

37:03

almost about the curse if is mean

37:05

mack. Truck made

37:07

over there of okay the anything bad

37:09

about one to flag it's just there's

37:11

been a lot of news under the

37:13

astronomical casualty count from this Werner So

37:15

presence Alinsky announced at thirty one thousand

37:18

Ukrainian soldiers have died the last two

37:20

years. Lot of analysts think the real

37:22

numbers even higher than that on the

37:24

Russian side. A. Russian military blogger recently

37:26

said that Russia last sixteen thousand troops

37:28

just during the battle for of give

37:30

go along with three hundred armored vehicles.

37:32

So sixteen thousand deaths in a battle

37:35

for a place that everyone involved says

37:37

has like symbolic value but limited strategic

37:39

value. So of course like Russia's bigger

37:41

that has bigger populists like three times

37:44

the size of Ukraine and food and

37:46

conscripted around three hundred thousand guys and

37:48

twenty twenty two. So I guess on

37:50

paper he can afford to lose all

37:52

these people. But it's so shocking and.

37:55

Then on Ukrainian side, they're debating

37:57

whether to pass a new modified

37:59

conscription dell. Really, the military. As

38:01

for four hundred, thirty thousand, five hundred thousand

38:03

new troops. So once he's not sure, it's

38:06

workable. According to Michael, Kaufman is a military

38:08

analysts. You focus on Russia and Ukraine. The

38:11

average age of Ukrainian soldier is over

38:13

forty years old. Imagine like. Be.

38:15

On the front lines. For. Weeks

38:17

and weeks and weeks and our age

38:19

in there. They desperately need more troops.

38:21

Zaleski is worried about canopies young guys

38:23

because of what it would do to

38:25

the economy, what losing that generation would

38:27

mean for Ukraine's features, the state and

38:29

the uncertainty of whether the Us is

38:31

going be around to actually train in

38:33

assist these guys so as when the

38:35

flag that then because like obviously be

38:37

human death toll is so awful. But.

38:40

Also to make the point that wine I

38:42

mean again. Like even.

38:44

Ukraine's ability to call up more troops

38:46

is dependent on this Us. fighting congress

38:48

in two. When you hear about the

38:51

status quo as is, it's just. it's

38:53

not a recipe for a stalemate in

38:55

the long run. it's it's It's a

38:57

set up where Ukraine is gonna lose

38:59

the war, apps and more support and

39:02

like some serious internal changes. Well, Yeah,

39:05

and I mean on the Ukrainian

39:07

side. They've had

39:09

this. Kind of theory. As

39:12

you're fighting for every it's territory and and

39:14

breeding the Russians. But the reality is I

39:16

don't know did they can continue fight the

39:18

war that way the not don't have as

39:21

many people even if the casualty count as

39:23

higher in the Russian side. That's not how

39:25

wars are won or lost. An aunt I

39:27

think they're going to be more selective about.

39:30

How and where they go on the

39:32

offense and and the nature the defensive

39:34

they use because. Yeah,

39:36

there's just more Russians and and there's

39:38

a willingness imprudent i think to do

39:40

whatever you need to do from the

39:43

conscription basis and given his kind of

39:45

total dictatorial control, he does have to

39:47

worry about fractures in the society and

39:49

same way. Now

39:51

the Russian side. I. I.

39:53

Don't thing, it's to worry in the near

39:55

term about like sustaining the war effort, it's

39:57

in the medium and longer term. As we

39:59

talked about. Last week what is going to

40:01

happen to the communities that are losing all

40:03

these people You know an unbelievable and now

40:06

I think it is. A real

40:08

threat to Russia internally in the not

40:10

too distant future. and I don't know

40:12

that that. I don't mean that that

40:14

some strategy for Ukraine when the war

40:17

but it's nothing to watch like I

40:19

just don't know of Russia's gonna look

40:21

like and five years and they've lost

40:23

hundreds of thousands of people that's widows

40:25

that people that aren't You know that

40:28

that are lost to the economy that's

40:30

near veterans returning home with wounds and

40:32

and and issues you know am I

40:34

at the bill will com do for

40:36

this. Incredible loss in the Russian

40:38

side. The question

40:41

is just how and once. Yeah, me

40:43

too In Ukraine, men between the ages

40:45

of eighteen and twenty six can't be

40:47

drafted, but there are encouraged to volunteer.

40:49

Men between twenty seven and sixty years

40:51

old can be drafted and forced to

40:53

mobilize, the kind debating whether to adjust

40:55

the ages on their conscription laws but

40:58

or the challenges exactly what you're describing.

41:00

which is that's Ukraine, just has a

41:02

much lower percentage of as population in

41:04

that younger generation and they're worried about

41:06

just hollowing out the future of the

41:08

country we're. Killing. Off the people

41:10

who would live there and like to to

41:12

stay down. yeah and and will people return

41:14

and they also the question was how long

41:16

do people stay in because I mean some

41:19

people have been like rare years and I

41:21

realized he said and like there's got to

41:23

be some abilities than the wrote it out

41:25

and and people love to see their families

41:27

be pasta they need a break them down

41:29

yeah last we we also talked lot about

41:31

a lesson of only the Russian opposition leader

41:33

an anti corruption activists who was murdered in

41:35

Russian penal colony and said we were sixteenth

41:37

are some updates they're so according to mommy's

41:39

team. His body is now finally

41:41

been returned to his mother. She had been

41:43

in this awful public battle with prison officials.

41:46

She was trying to locate the body then

41:48

get them to recent tour. It was awful.

41:50

Prison officials were putting conditions on the release.

41:53

They're telling his mother that she had agree

41:55

with secret funeral or else you'd be buried

41:57

at this penal colonies. Now of all me.

42:00

The missing. They're unable to find a venue

42:02

in Russia that will hold his funeral for

42:04

him there. like releasing videos run ask anyone

42:06

for help. Ah, and they want to hold

42:08

a public service at the end of this

42:11

week. I'm Yvonne. The seem is also said

42:13

that negotiations for his release as part of

42:15

the prisoner exchange were in the final stages

42:17

before his death. That was supposedly deal that

42:20

would have included was your Journal Reporter ever

42:22

Goes to Bed and Security Executive Paul Well

42:24

and has been detained for several years. They

42:26

were all in exchange for a man named

42:28

Saddam. Classy cause. A Russian convicted

42:31

of killing a former Chechen separatists fighter

42:33

in Germany. So it sounds like the

42:35

U S in the Germans. Might.

42:37

Have been talking about the outlines of this

42:39

deal. obviously since the Germans are held in

42:41

the guys the Russians wants but the Us

42:43

the scoring Nbc News The Us hadn't yet

42:45

approached the Russians about this deal yet. I

42:47

don't know to make of this report. I'm

42:49

skeptical that man was released in of on

42:51

the yes and I'm also skeptical that he

42:53

would kill of all need to scuttle a

42:55

deal but he would have had to approve

42:57

any way but on or would you make

42:59

I don't I just don't think that that.

43:02

Was gonna happen. I mean I don't think

43:04

prudent would britain swaps people that he says

43:06

are spies we haven't Your scripts is

43:08

now but they categorize ran away the releasing

43:11

it a Russian. Opposition. Leader

43:13

for one guy it it's clear the

43:15

Russians what that guy came up and

43:17

the Brittney Griner contacts yes but I

43:19

I just think that that that's highly

43:21

unlikely I will say like when you

43:23

watch this stuff about the body and

43:25

you watches absurdity of than saying that

43:27

I'm only died of natural causes and

43:29

then not when he never public funeral.

43:33

Again, like for guys post been such

43:35

control hear what is? He so scared

43:37

us. You know amid does it is.

43:39

There's a paranoia, is a pettiness but

43:42

also paranoia. Like that, did they truly feel

43:44

like they have to keep the lid on

43:46

so tight? It might be because they send

43:48

said it's you'll either way to pick up

43:50

an inch like it could explode and and

43:52

and so I think and deaths. Know.

43:54

All Me is once again. Illustrating

43:57

the kind of weakness a boon in a

43:59

lot of way. Add want to overstate that

44:01

imposing control, but it is the case

44:03

that like if you can even allow for

44:05

their to be a funeral for somebody. Because

44:08

you're so afraid of what that would be like. Maybe

44:11

you're not as firmly in control of your

44:13

project into the rest the world. And at

44:15

Tucker Carlson in the Moscow. Metro.

44:17

For his game does seem so patreon

44:19

so small. Way we talk last week

44:22

about how they were You security officials

44:24

were beating up people, just laugh, holding

44:26

down flowers at memorials and things in

44:28

their system. Brutality speak in Russia Been

44:30

so it's election season coming up. Got.

44:32

Artificial intelligence making easier than ever to make

44:35

sake images and nadia and videos and then

44:37

and bc snow make good been so thank

44:39

you for them. I did not make the

44:41

by rubber com by what am I would

44:44

been funnier Yes on N B C News

44:46

had a story on Monday. The headline was

44:48

Russia's Twenty Twenty Four Election Interference has already

44:51

begun. That is mostly that's Russia using these

44:53

fake online accounts and bought networks to spread

44:55

disinformation or just. Real negative stories

44:57

about Biden or Democrats or anyone who

45:00

wants to support Ukraine or Nato. or

45:02

the Russians are doing similar things in

45:04

Europe ahead of the European Parliamentary elections

45:06

in June. But then it gets even

45:08

wieder in the Us where we recently

45:11

learned that the T Republican Witness in

45:13

their farce of an impeachment effort against

45:15

President Biden has ties to Russian intelligence

45:17

Ai. Here's a clip from Congressmen Jamie

45:20

Raskin. Now we know that Russian intelligence

45:22

operatives were behind creating the propaganda and

45:24

disinformation at the very foundation of this

45:26

investigation. So I think it's

45:28

time for at German Cromer in

45:30

the Republicans to fold up the

45:32

circus tent and we should get

45:34

back to work from there to

45:36

be will Certainly It was a

45:38

shattering revelation yesterday when we learned

45:40

that Smirnoff was collecting his information.

45:42

Some Russian intelligence operatives that were

45:44

at the very basis of this

45:46

whole investigation Yesterday's revelations demonstrates said

45:48

prudence, pattern of interference and destabilization

45:50

of Ah For and democratic elections

45:52

around the world, including in America

45:54

has continued to this very day.

45:57

Arm and this impeachment investigation.

46:00

There's nothing but a wild goose chase.

46:02

It is based on Russian disinformation and

46:04

propaganda, so little background. So the guy

46:06

named Alexander Smirnoff, he was a trusted

46:08

sci And for men who been paid

46:10

by the Us government for information about

46:12

like the oligarchs officials, whatever. Or in

46:14

June twenty twenty. So in the middle

46:16

of the last Presidential election, Smirnoff told

46:18

the F B I that the owner

46:20

of Breeze my the big Ukrainian energy

46:22

company that's been swirling around Allosaurus. but

46:25

Hunter Biden had paid Joe Biden in

46:27

Hunter Biden side million dollars each to

46:29

stop and investigation. Into Breeze Mart at

46:31

Joe Biden. Do it when he was

46:33

Vice Presidents are the F B. I

46:35

is now indicted Smirnoff for lying because

46:37

his allegations were made up. It's the

46:40

series each column On the sly, Smirnov

46:42

said he met with Breeze Muscles and

46:44

twenty sixteen And Twenty sixteen. but the

46:46

F B I knew he met them

46:48

for the first time in Twenty Seventeen

46:51

the realize that where he traveled and

46:53

prosecutors Also sad that the information Smirnov

46:55

shared about the Bidens came from officials

46:57

associated with Russian intelligence. So smart as

46:59

allegations. Bike they quickly be to

47:01

the right wing press and to republicans

47:04

are so the house republicans doing impeachments.

47:06

They demanded these like F B I.

47:08

Documents about you know what he had

47:11

told them. They then went public with

47:13

them and now they will take fucking

47:15

moron speak as this guy was clearly

47:17

have a Russian intel op. Ben. Even

47:19

describing all that to you is exhausting in

47:21

makes me I have twenty seventeen Ptsd, but

47:24

it's obviously also like a huge deal that

47:26

these guys are already trying as young as

47:28

thorough actions are I guess. and Galloway noon

47:30

and peace between twenty actually I got to

47:32

be three or what Have you come out?

47:35

The stuff we have republican party that would

47:37

clearly rather. Destroys. Your biden, than

47:39

guard against it. Well.

47:41

I think. I. Dunno. I

47:45

mean for an answer disease different categories

47:47

right? cousins facades in the in information

47:49

space. It's just a cesspool and and

47:51

might be bought. Recognize his the Russians

47:53

and create the origin of lot of

47:55

these conspiracy theories with a they see

47:58

what's happening in our weird right. Fever

48:00

Dream ecosystem and they come in and basically just

48:02

pour gasoline on it and try to turbo charge

48:04

conspiracy theories and antibody Clinton not be doing. that

48:07

will begin a lot of that and a i

48:09

like you said makes it easier for them do

48:11

that. I mean there's some effort said are underweight

48:13

it a least try to label the a broader

48:15

market wider market. So in this came up in

48:17

the I was in Munich and part. Of

48:20

your to be in some these conversations.

48:24

Because you know at minimum know people

48:26

should know of em. It's did the

48:28

sad thing for me as it. Twitter

48:30

actually last time was labeling state sponsored content.

48:32

you know now it's a got cesspool of

48:35

your nozzle worse. But but so one thing

48:37

on the on the information spaces you'd like

48:39

to lease be able to empower people the

48:41

information about where this is coming from. I

48:44

do worry this time about whether the Russians

48:46

getting the stakes are very high for them.

48:48

What they do around the election itself see

48:50

now is are much more dissing misinformation about

48:53

voting or their efforts to kind of interfere

48:55

with voting process itself to yet to kind

48:57

of watch that space and then on this

49:00

stuff. I mean. I.

49:02

Know Tommy like the the thing that is

49:04

really frustrating and and probably obvious is it

49:06

there's such and. Over. The top.

49:09

Effort by Trump and his allies to kind

49:11

of make all the russia stuff feel like

49:13

it was. Over. Toward yet

49:15

in it was a hoax in that

49:17

people are ya, and I even internalized

49:20

it either. And look again, I hated

49:22

got caught trolling. But like Glenn Greenwald

49:24

spin like after me for years, Zeiss

49:26

said something about the road the laptop

49:28

being part of a Russian disinformation campaigns

49:31

which you know. Something. Was

49:33

simple it's like it's at this guy

49:35

was a party or spit it is.

49:37

This is policing of the the center

49:40

left and left on the stuff that

49:42

if you like of you get like

49:44

anything is overcrowded, all your cast as

49:46

like a lunatic and yet actually the

49:49

underlying truth is still there like the

49:51

Russian agent spreading disinformation to the point

49:53

that they're literally the basis of impeachment

49:55

of President Stats and so for to

49:57

got him as active I just. That

50:00

we need to not be that you know

50:02

self constrained. Sure we need to be careful

50:04

not make statements if we don't know I

50:07

information about or.credible information about. but like don't

50:09

let them work the rest so hard that

50:11

we're not at least calling out like hey,

50:13

this is what's happening enough. Yeah, it's a

50:16

good point. I do think that in this

50:18

is more of a desert online phenomenon. Yeah

50:20

for like we probably should have called Mitch

50:22

Mcconnell Moscow much snow and find in need

50:25

like although race ah Mahler and like as

50:27

superheroes uniform next. Oh my god, what's his

50:29

name? Michael. A vet or as about a

50:31

i just felt as physical of stupidity of

50:33

some of that stuff like undermine the fact

50:36

that a dead it really was some the

50:38

i would not to smoke there's a lot

50:40

of fire their do and it'll be here

50:42

this election to and not everyone who disagrees

50:44

with by and Ukraine policies A on his

50:46

and dry like there's good faith disagreement but

50:48

also two weeks before so lucky as parliamentary

50:51

elections in September there was a fake audio

50:53

clip showing like. Be. A dip purported

50:55

to show a pro western party was

50:57

trying to rig the election was all

50:59

made up and bullshit like that's gonna

51:01

happen and guess what? Like they're pro

51:03

Russian Autocrat One, the Slovakia Knox and

51:05

them into this stuff. as real as

51:08

a real impact and that the only

51:10

anybody's we can think of is just

51:12

trying to empower people with as much

51:14

information you can knowing that even that

51:16

is gonna be out in this crazy

51:18

space where does no objective reality? Yeah,

51:20

speaking of far right weirdos abroad with

51:22

talk about see pack. Be. Conservative

51:24

Political Action Conference. It just ended. It

51:27

was in a your standard right wing

51:29

buffet of their bigotry bullshit and like

51:31

Trump worship Trump vote For an hour

51:33

and a half a bunch of literal

51:35

Nazis attended. they mingled with. Guess they

51:37

were like the goose stepping around and

51:40

like I'm doing that salute. Thanks once

51:42

again. There were a smattering of right

51:44

wing meters. There. Was ah is

51:46

trust the idiot who was British prime

51:48

minister for like six minutes there was

51:51

have your new a D right wing

51:53

and Arco capital as President of Argentina

51:55

there was the bitcoin community is favored

51:57

dictator neighbor Kaylee from El Salvador. We

52:00

want to play your quip about clips

52:02

from the Kaylee speech to just get

52:04

out how weird it was the had

52:06

these guys come to the U S

52:09

talk about kind of being autocrats publicly

52:11

all but endorse Trump in Mckenna Nagar

52:13

ban and worldview. Ah, here's a couple

52:15

clips discovered that first is about global

52:17

elites been. And

52:22

they. Have

52:28

to choose their leaders is.

52:31

Because they can. Control that. You've.

52:36

Ever experienced it firsthand. The Or

52:38

legacy. The

52:40

global elites controlled amazing media.

52:42

They find his campaign's. This.

52:45

Or that burns to measure of you. The.

52:50

Abuse their power, They.

52:53

Persecute political opponent, It'll

52:57

start with or without weaponize.

52:59

our judicial system, deposited our

53:01

put his political opponents. A

53:05

practice that may sound familiar to you

53:07

are: we don't do that there. And.

53:10

Was a dictator That's and will jump. Who's

53:12

a dictator and how we did? You hear

53:14

like an Us versus them without a president,

53:16

a foreign country versus like. Democracy.

53:19

Are Democrats. I guess

53:21

you know. First of all,

53:23

What it does can't demonstrate though is that

53:26

there's in. This is another we know. Hugging

53:29

a little. The

53:31

resistance that knew we were part of. I

53:34

think there was this effort to kind

53:37

of cast. Trump is buffoon. you know

53:39

who kind of was dangerous, but you

53:41

know, a bit of an outlier it

53:44

to anything we'd in America. Know that

53:46

this is like. There's

53:48

a real ideology. Behind. it

53:50

did like be kelly and meal a

53:53

these guys slicked affected it travels around

53:55

the such different places your trump is

53:57

as much a reflection of something happening

53:59

the world as he is somebody driving

54:01

it. There's just this anti-globalist,

54:04

anti-elite, autocratic

54:06

populism that

54:09

travels and that has a potency

54:12

to it that needs to be taken seriously,

54:14

even if it's totally hypocritical.

54:17

Bukele like Trump is projecting. He does all

54:19

those things. He persecutes opponents. He's got people

54:21

in prison. So I'm not suggesting it's true.

54:23

March troops into parliament. Yeah. Yeah.

54:26

Yeah. So this is going to

54:28

be around for a while. And that's

54:31

my second point, which is that we don't

54:33

do this. Why don't we do this? I'm

54:36

not saying we have a CPAC that says crazy, but

54:39

there's this reticence to align with political

54:43

parties and movements around the world. I'd

54:46

like there to be some gathering of... I

54:49

mean, I've been to some of them, but they're much

54:51

more muted than this.

54:54

The US president probably doesn't speak at them, right? Trump's

54:57

stamping his reputation, imprimatur on this thing,

55:00

getting a lot of eyeballs there. That

55:02

makes a difference. Yeah. My

55:04

point is that the Democratic Party in this country

55:06

needs to feel more invested in the success of

55:09

center left and left politicians around

55:11

the world and need not

55:13

be shy about it because look, these

55:16

guys are very coordinated. They're

55:19

sharing messaging, they're sharing

55:21

media strategies, they're sharing

55:23

resources, and we're just not doing

55:25

that at the scale that we should be. And

55:29

so weirdly, we could learn something from CPAC.

55:31

Yeah. And we have one more clip. I'll

55:34

just summarize it because we're going a little long. But

55:36

Bukhali has a minute long extended riff

55:38

about George Soros. And it's just fascinating that

55:40

these guys have all found a common enemy

55:42

to bring this group of right wing zealots

55:44

here. A man in his 90s. When

55:48

I was listening to the BBC World Podcast,

55:50

they were running around CPAC talking to people. These

55:53

folks now all oppose Ukraine funding. They're

55:55

all big Bolsonaro fans. There's a

55:57

herd mentality on foreign policy. getting

56:00

behind the same things. Yeah and and

56:03

it's what they're doing

56:05

that's interesting and smart is people

56:08

are sick of globalization for some

56:10

good reasons. The inequality that's been

56:12

created, the sense that the system

56:14

is broken and doesn't work anymore.

56:17

Now what they're doing is they're somehow tying all

56:19

this to like George Soros who's not like the

56:22

not I mean basically an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory.

56:24

And that's the other thing I'd say is that like

56:26

all the people that are so concerned

56:29

about like campus anti-Semitism like once you

56:31

look over here where the actual Nazis

56:33

are showing up and they're even the

56:35

the the leaders are like saying there's

56:38

like a shadowy financier Jewish man pulling

56:40

the strings. But like so you

56:42

have to separate out the crazy and the

56:45

bigotry from what is them connecting

56:47

to because the problem for center-left parties right

56:49

now is we're like the defenders of the

56:51

establishment you know like how dare you

56:53

impugn the integrity intelligence community and you

56:56

know that's a little like no fancy intelligence

56:58

me but that's not like the politically smart

57:01

place to be these days. Not a winning

57:03

message we're also like usually hodgepodge's and coalitions

57:05

that are multi ethnic and different views etc.

57:08

A couple more quick things Ben. So the

57:10

New York Times reported that American law

57:12

enforcement officials spent years investigating allegations that

57:15

President Lopez Obrador, Amlo, the president

57:17

of Mexico had met with and

57:19

taken millions of dollars from drug

57:21

cartels after he took office. Apparently

57:24

these investigators found links between the

57:26

cartels and officials close to Amlo

57:28

but no connection to Amlo himself

57:30

so there was never a formal

57:32

investigation. ProPublica also recently

57:34

reported that in 2006 the

57:37

DEA heard allegations that drug traffickers had

57:39

donated to Amlo's campaign at the time.

57:42

So this all became public and Amlo did

57:44

a press conference to respond and he took

57:46

it about as well as he'd expect. He

57:48

denied all the charges and he even read

57:50

the New York Times Mexico bureau chief's phone

57:53

number allowed on TV during the press conference.

57:55

Obviously that's like you want to laugh at that

57:57

because it's so like pecculent and she's like once

57:59

in a row. when Trump did that to Lindsey Graham. Yeah,

58:01

yeah, yeah. But that was actually pretty good. That was actually kind

58:03

of great. But in Mexico, you get a lot of reporters getting

58:05

murdered. It's actually illegal to

58:07

dock someone like that in Mexico from

58:09

investigating Almo for doing this stupid shit.

58:11

Anyway, not great all around the allegations,

58:13

the response, all of it. Ben, we

58:15

should note that the former president of

58:17

Honduras is currently on trial in New

58:20

York for drug trafficking, so it's not

58:22

unprecedented to prosecute a former head of

58:24

state. Could you imagine what would

58:26

have happened if they tried to bring charges against a

58:28

sitting head of state like this? How the fuck would

58:30

that work? Yeah, and a

58:32

very popular one of a big, important

58:34

country that is absolutely essential to

58:36

any effort to deal with our border or deal

58:38

with the cartels. So it was interesting that this

58:41

kind of leaked out. I'm kind of curious, like,

58:43

were people that were investigating it disgruntled and

58:45

they put it out. The

58:48

fact that the US kind of furiously backtrack, I

58:50

mean, it shows you how much they need in

58:53

Mexico. We can't solve any of these problems without

58:55

Mexico. And so Almo has a

58:57

lot of leverage in this case. Yeah, he really does. He'd be like, come and

58:59

get me. Yeah. Let's see

59:01

it. Speaking of corrupt presidents, former French

59:03

president Nicolas Sarkozy was found guilty of

59:05

illegally overspending during his 2012 presidential campaign.

59:08

How many crimes does that guy, you

59:10

know, like, get buffet? Yeah, what

59:12

is buffet? He's going to appeal this one. He

59:14

might get like six months in his house with

59:17

an ankle monitor, but whatever. Is he still married

59:19

to Carla Brie? I wondered that too. I don't

59:21

know. We should look that up. We should check

59:23

that. But to your point, in 2023, he was

59:25

found guilty of trying to bribe a judge and

59:27

next year he's going to get tried for illegally

59:29

taking money from now deceased Libyan dictator Muftar

59:32

Qaddafi. So that's a pretty big one. Yeah.

59:35

Actually, given how much Sarkozy wanted to

59:37

take him out at the time. Not exactly a master

59:39

criminal here. No, not very good at job.

59:43

Then, remember back in 2018,

59:45

the Saudis executed the Washington Post opinion

59:48

writer Jamal Khashoggi. Yes. And

59:50

it felt like there was a sea change. Business leaders

59:52

wouldn't do business with the Saudis. Some

59:54

CEOs refused to go there or attend

59:56

their Davos in the Desert investment conference.

1:00:00

some bad news for you. A couple of years and

1:00:02

a few trillion dollars can make a hell of a lot of difference.

1:00:04

So now we have

1:00:06

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's personal

1:00:08

think tank, the Future Investment Initiative

1:00:10

Institute, what a name. It's

1:00:12

holding conferences here in the United States, including

1:00:14

last week in Miami. The topics

1:00:17

were notionally big ideas like AI or climate

1:00:19

change, but really it was just a bunch

1:00:21

of starfuckers who wanted Saudi money. We had

1:00:23

Gwyneth Paltrow was there, Rob Lowe, the

1:00:26

CEOs of Blackstone and Palantir, some

1:00:29

former Trump, I'm gonna try to trigger you now,

1:00:31

former Trump officials like Jared Kushner, Mike

1:00:33

Pompeo, Steve Mnuchin. According

1:00:36

to a great report by a friend of

1:00:38

the pod, Jonathan Geier and the American Prospect,

1:00:40

Larry Summers and Eric Schmidt did

1:00:42

a panel where they reminisced about how much they

1:00:44

missed Henry Kissinger. Is this

1:00:46

working? Guys, all my favorites. The

1:00:49

hits just keep on coming, Tommy. Some

1:00:51

American journalists hosted panels, hopefully

1:00:53

not about bone saws. Gwyneth was

1:00:55

unironically talking about fighting the patriarchy during

1:00:57

this Saudi hosted event. So

1:00:59

Ben, I guess the only silver lining

1:01:02

here, I guess, is according to Jonathan,

1:01:04

there were only 50 people watching this

1:01:06

livestream, this event that cost millions, but

1:01:08

I don't know, man, what's the lesson?

1:01:10

Money always wins? Yeah. So

1:01:12

depressing. It's really depressing. What

1:01:15

I'd say is how much is enough? We said

1:01:18

this before, but Gwyneth, you're doing

1:01:20

fine with the goop. A whole bunch

1:01:22

of money. Is it really worth the appearance fee? You

1:01:24

just sell your goop and be cool with it. Rob

1:01:27

Lowe, like West Wing, filled

1:01:31

everybody with an earnest idealism.

1:01:34

What would Sam Seaborn have said about

1:01:36

this appearance at the Davos on South

1:01:39

Beach or whatever it was? Yeah, not

1:01:41

good. It just, there's other ways to

1:01:43

make a living without that appearance fee.

1:01:47

And yeah, like the Larry Summers chuckling like

1:01:49

about the good old days with Henry Kissinger,

1:01:51

when you could take money from dictators and

1:01:54

not get called out about it. I mean,

1:01:56

there's just gotta be better. And by

1:01:59

the way, it connects to the seat. thing because that's the

1:02:01

kind of stuff that people are mad about.

1:02:03

Now, obviously, like it skews right,

1:02:05

I mean Jared's there and Trump is buddies

1:02:07

with these people, but like that

1:02:09

kind of stuff is what people are

1:02:11

like looking at as this elite that

1:02:14

just is totally out of touch with-

1:02:16

And hypocritical. Yeah, it just

1:02:18

makes everybody look like hypocrites. It's

1:02:20

so maddening. Yeah. It's so

1:02:22

maddening. And they're doing it in the US. Under the guise

1:02:24

of these think tanks and

1:02:27

the Saudi sovereign wealth fund is buying teams and

1:02:29

they're pretending that it's not Mohammed bin Salman pulling

1:02:31

the trigger. It's like, of course he is. Of

1:02:33

course he's behind all of this. It's the worst.

1:02:35

He wins, we lose. That's

1:02:37

the life lesson here. That's the life

1:02:39

lesson. Finally, Ben, listeners to the show

1:02:42

know that we're big fans of Australia and

1:02:45

we're very grateful to the Aussies in particular for

1:02:47

filling the back half of the show,

1:02:49

this portion of the show, with lots of fun stories.

1:02:51

But today we owe you an apology. So

1:02:54

an Australian photographer has accused Taylor Swift's father

1:02:56

of punching him in the face as Taylor

1:02:58

and her crew got off the yacht. Yeah.

1:03:01

They were at a wharf in the Sydney

1:03:03

area. It was after Taylor's final concert tour.

1:03:06

Where the hell is Travis Kelsey is what I want to

1:03:08

know playing defense here. So Taylor's dad is 71. He punched

1:03:10

a 51 year old photog. The

1:03:14

Australian media has this amazing video of Taylor

1:03:16

walking with her dad, hiding under an umbrella

1:03:18

and then her dad gives the photographer the

1:03:20

bird in the process. So I don't know

1:03:22

what to make of this. My favorite part

1:03:25

of the story is that Taylor's spokesperson is

1:03:27

quoted everywhere and her name is Tree Pain,

1:03:30

which makes me wonder if she's being-

1:03:32

Like Tree Pain? Like Tree Pain. Like

1:03:35

she's trying to stop the Tree's Pain? I don't

1:03:37

know that or she was unfairly maligned for using

1:03:39

auto tune, but it was actually very talented. Could

1:03:42

be either way. Here's what I want to know. Are

1:03:45

we going to have to take Hugh Jackman hostage like

1:03:47

Putin style so that we can swap him or

1:03:49

Taylor Swift or her father? Is

1:03:52

there like a legal proceeding though? I mean, like I

1:03:54

can't imagine it's legal to just wind

1:03:56

up in clock of photography. Well, it's Australia. Yeah,

1:03:59

actually it's true. It is. Let it all

1:04:01

part of that some visual like I

1:04:03

live, That's the way to look at

1:04:05

this whole incident like this, Diego, various,

1:04:07

Jennifer spite of the outcomes and and

1:04:09

every like talks about of a while

1:04:11

and then amazon of in yeah. I

1:04:14

don't have to make of it is useful.

1:04:16

Aggressive of instances. Stelzer, dad's a yellow Ribbons

1:04:18

Where's Jason Kelsey with a shirt off? I

1:04:21

don't know who's coming to get bought a

1:04:23

space a can get a picture. They could

1:04:25

have beaten up everybody. I don't know. We'll

1:04:27

see what happens. I do. I have been

1:04:29

listening to. Call him

1:04:31

hey from men Works solo stuff a lot

1:04:34

recently. Truly great cause I didn't know that

1:04:36

is so societies well some of them are

1:04:38

like metalwork songs that he does. The kids

1:04:40

who stick nice his eyes listen to that.

1:04:43

Excellent yeah as an excellent. Excellent! Thank you

1:04:45

Tick tock for inject. Maybe what resolution is

1:04:47

is that Taylor? let's him be the opening

1:04:49

act a tailor college hangs out with. I

1:04:51

have either yeah mine too and them what

1:04:53

demographics and the where you are now or

1:04:55

in Sydney may be calling the as human

1:04:57

as popular as better. Okay well good luck

1:04:59

with that Australia or we hope you sorted

1:05:01

out where to take a quick break and

1:05:03

we come back. You're here. Bends interview about

1:05:05

all the things are happening. Myanmar's to stick

1:05:07

around for us. As

1:05:14

assess and a restaurant owner and as meticulous

1:05:17

about my cookware as I am on that

1:05:19

land gradients. That's why I love meeting. Tackling

1:05:21

each pan they make isn't as designed to

1:05:23

perform is crafted to last. As a mom,

1:05:25

I love that I can. Has made. It's

1:05:27

made from the world's finest materials. I can

1:05:29

feel good about what I've seen in my

1:05:31

family. I'm separate Williamson. And I use. Made in cook

1:05:33

ware. Hi

1:05:36

there, I'm like the towel O'brien and

1:05:38

I'm a writer. And reader and

1:05:40

the ones as and when

1:05:42

you may have heard ass.

1:05:45

And I'm here to tell you about the

1:05:47

newest season, as map had cast a team

1:05:49

to tell significant others. Each

1:05:51

week we tell stories you may not

1:05:53

know about a person. you probably do.

1:05:56

Like an addict. or know whose

1:05:58

wife peggy maybe three He

1:06:00

almost succeeded in betraying his country

1:06:02

look for significant others wherever you

1:06:05

get your podcast In

1:06:10

an election year guarantee to divide this

1:06:12

is a debacle So

1:06:30

it's now been three years since a

1:06:33

military coup in Myanmar ousted the elected

1:06:35

government of Aung San Suu Kyi That

1:06:38

followed of course like

1:06:41

a brutal period of

1:06:43

ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya during which

1:06:45

Aung San Suu Kyi was silent

1:06:48

and since the coup

1:06:51

We've seen a bloody civil war that the UN estimates

1:06:53

has led to the displacement of 2.6 million

1:06:56

further people Interestingly in

1:06:58

recent months things have been shifting against

1:07:00

the military hunta inside of the country

1:07:02

So joining me to talk about

1:07:04

the latest developments and where this is all leading

1:07:07

is a terrific

1:07:09

activist and advocate why why knew

1:07:13

Who is a human rights activist from Myanmar and the

1:07:15

director and founder of the women's peace network? It's so

1:07:17

good to see you again after a few years why

1:07:19

why? So good to see

1:07:21

you too. Thank you for having me So

1:07:24

I want to start with the situation just generally

1:07:26

in Myanmar and then we'll

1:07:28

also talk about the situation for

1:07:31

the Rohingya people Beginning

1:07:33

in Myanmar, so it's been

1:07:35

three years since the coup Since

1:07:38

then I think to a lot of

1:07:40

analysts, you know opposition forces seem to have shown

1:07:42

a Surprising strength

1:07:44

in the Civil War in recent weeks

1:07:46

There have been reports of thousands

1:07:48

of young people trying to find a way out

1:07:50

of the country to avoid a new conscription law

1:07:53

That the military is trying to use to

1:07:55

regenerate manpower That Conscription

1:07:57

move follows gains made by various.

1:08:00

Rebel groups across the country who been

1:08:02

uniting and taking territory. the exile government,

1:08:04

the National Unity government that's the opposition

1:08:06

force and they can vonn bell over

1:08:08

the opposition are now says it as

1:08:10

some sixty percent of Myanmar's territories under

1:08:12

the control of resistance forces. So just

1:08:15

starting their Why? Why? Based on your

1:08:17

contacts and much you're following what is

1:08:19

your scented the situation. Is it the

1:08:21

case of the is kind of losing

1:08:23

control? How do you assess what's happening

1:08:25

in the country? On

1:08:28

indeed. We. Have

1:08:30

to acknowledge that on toss

1:08:32

the hotel was never able

1:08:34

to control the country and

1:08:37

consolidate his palace since they

1:08:39

attempted to any February. Twenty

1:08:41

Twenty One. I'm due

1:08:44

to the of popular resistance

1:08:46

to it now and into

1:08:48

this, our collective military. Operations

1:08:50

by the ethnic I'm scoop.

1:08:53

It becomes even harder to retain

1:08:55

control of the territory which we

1:08:57

see they are losing by the

1:09:00

dates and it's also shows how

1:09:02

the me a mom military or

1:09:04

on tap. Is weaker

1:09:07

than many thought. At the

1:09:09

same time we have also

1:09:11

seen the Hunter uses every

1:09:14

possible means to maintain the

1:09:16

power included It's commission some

1:09:18

serious international crimes such as

1:09:21

France. Can humanity or priced

1:09:23

through as there and get

1:09:25

discriminate uses sell forces a

1:09:28

shell? It's against the civilians

1:09:30

and villages. Widespread and systematic

1:09:32

s. Ah, Arrest to

1:09:34

add detentions kill him rate

1:09:37

and so on and am

1:09:39

now add the latest an

1:09:41

inflammation so. We are. Documented.

1:09:45

Is that the Junta? Actually,

1:09:47

Arrest in a young people on the

1:09:49

street in the villages across the country

1:09:51

and that is why it's ah many

1:09:53

of them are legit up in front

1:09:55

of the embassies and he then to

1:09:57

the point that to bear with me.

1:10:00

In unfortunate death of young.

1:10:02

People. So. There

1:10:04

are a lot of optimistic view

1:10:07

or on what is going on

1:10:09

and people are still hopeful and

1:10:11

committed to defeat the military. A

1:10:14

However, we are also is extremely

1:10:16

concerns about the situations on the

1:10:18

grounds the impact on there are

1:10:21

women, young people and the people

1:10:23

of Burma So. There

1:10:26

is a mixture of feeling among the

1:10:28

people. older people have committed and united

1:10:30

are to defeat them. but we also

1:10:32

have to acknowledge this. The

1:10:35

catastrophic situations and and of

1:10:37

find ways to n o

1:10:40

two to to resolve. The

1:10:42

crisis in Burrow my as soon as

1:10:44

possible. So I

1:10:46

am Truths about your view of

1:10:48

of of the opposition forces you

1:10:51

for people who don't follow this

1:10:53

that closer. Over the years it

1:10:55

was always the case. and in

1:10:57

Myanmar, Burma or Myanmar the with

1:10:59

and used interchangeably that you had

1:11:02

these ethnic armed groups who were

1:11:04

in conflict with the military. And

1:11:06

what I've noticed since the coup

1:11:08

and Twenty Twenty One is a

1:11:10

greater degree of unity. Among.

1:11:13

Different ethnic groups that are fighting

1:11:15

and also among some Burmese who

1:11:17

have joined forces with ethnic armed

1:11:19

groups to oppose the junta. So

1:11:21

you have kind of a bigger

1:11:24

tents if you will over these

1:11:26

opposition forces. you've put aside differences

1:11:28

in some cases to fight together

1:11:30

again soon. Dire to fight obese

1:11:32

from ushered cause? What is your

1:11:34

assessment of your How much? Is

1:11:37

there A new sense of unity

1:11:39

in forces opposing new into how

1:11:41

much does that? The. National Unity

1:11:43

government can reflect our those

1:11:45

opposition forces and you think

1:11:47

that that can be sustained

1:11:49

going forward. It. It's

1:11:52

incredible. That. The we

1:11:54

achieved this level. Of Unity. And.

1:11:57

Common understanding among the

1:11:59

different. Ethnic

1:12:01

groups and different political

1:12:03

groups after. The East attempted

1:12:06

coup in twenty twenty one

1:12:08

people across the country has

1:12:10

started to realize the military

1:12:13

is common enemy. And

1:12:15

we must defeat the

1:12:17

military physically. We must

1:12:19

be able to dismantle

1:12:21

current the military institutions

1:12:23

which. Have been

1:12:26

in control of floor oil

1:12:28

of an part in pot

1:12:30

for. Six. Seven decades

1:12:32

and they are the main

1:12:34

sources of many atrocities. To

1:12:37

the an economic poverty to

1:12:39

the it's a cry of

1:12:41

these situations in general in

1:12:43

the country that repressive and

1:12:46

military institutions. so that's the

1:12:48

com and understand him Then

1:12:50

I'll once we are able

1:12:53

to dismantle the current Mills

1:12:55

Military institution then there will

1:12:57

be political negotiations. and as

1:13:00

it is already. Happening among

1:13:02

the different a diverse ab

1:13:04

political actors and ethnic groups.

1:13:06

And then we'll have a

1:13:08

security sector reform that would

1:13:10

include the reformation self the

1:13:12

military at the same time

1:13:14

the current revolution. What we

1:13:16

have also. Been. Witness And

1:13:19

is that the young People

1:13:21

of Burma, specially the berman

1:13:23

young people are not only

1:13:25

talking about military dictatorship at

1:13:27

this point and reinstated or

1:13:29

replace. it's a new form

1:13:31

of government, but. We

1:13:34

are talking about the eliminations

1:13:36

or and in all form

1:13:38

of dictatorships. So not just

1:13:40

a military dictatorship. So it's

1:13:42

the revolution we call it

1:13:45

is not just a bar

1:13:47

fight against the military is

1:13:49

the fight against ideology around

1:13:51

the authoritarianism. So all forms

1:13:53

of this dictatorship so don't

1:13:56

people have committed to release

1:13:58

build did a true. democratic

1:14:01

values, inclusive

1:14:04

democracy, federal democracy

1:14:06

that assure equality

1:14:09

and justice and peace for

1:14:11

every communities and individuals in

1:14:14

Burma. So, you know,

1:14:16

that includes, for instance, an

1:14:20

agenda equality and in patriarchy and

1:14:22

so on. So that's why I

1:14:24

think for me, I'm

1:14:26

very optimistic in

1:14:29

a way how far we are able

1:14:31

to come and how far we

1:14:34

can actually

1:14:36

go for the

1:14:38

future of the country. It's not just

1:14:41

about the political actors that are important

1:14:43

in finding solutions in

1:14:45

Burma, but also young people,

1:14:47

the younger generations

1:14:50

of this country who are committed to

1:14:52

build a new future

1:14:55

for all of us. Yeah,

1:14:57

no, I mean, for people, again,

1:14:59

who don't follow us closely, you're

1:15:01

describing a much more radical and

1:15:03

I think necessary transition to an

1:15:05

inclusive society than the

1:15:08

past transition to democracy or partial

1:15:10

democracy was essentially the military maintained

1:15:12

a lot of power and

1:15:14

made kind of a deal with Aung San

1:15:16

Suu Kyi and her political party to relinquish

1:15:18

some of that power, but it didn't kind

1:15:21

of entrench this military

1:15:23

hold on a lot of the

1:15:25

society and economy or the

1:15:27

kind of Buddhist nationalism that

1:15:29

was evident in the ethnic cleansing of

1:15:32

the Rohingya that you have represented as

1:15:35

an activist. So that does

1:15:37

speak to a moment in which the ambition

1:15:40

in response to the coup has actually gotten greater

1:15:43

with respect to democracy. I'm

1:15:45

interested in the situation for the

1:15:47

Rohingya. Nobody suffered more

1:15:50

over the years in Myanmar than than

1:15:52

your community. First of all, do

1:15:54

you find that there's a greater Inclusivity

1:15:57

of Rohingya in this vision of the future of

1:15:59

Myanmar? And ah, a net

1:16:01

and how much of your community

1:16:04

remains inside those borders versus how

1:16:06

much is in Bangladesh and in

1:16:08

in other countries. Yeah.

1:16:12

Right now that about six hundred

1:16:14

thousand are rohingya. Remain in

1:16:16

Ah. Me and

1:16:18

my insides, Myanmar plus Defense

1:16:20

and as cities in were

1:16:23

tied states as specifically other

1:16:25

other as hundred and thirty

1:16:27

thousand internally displaced Rohingya incidentally

1:16:29

Tokyo and a few other

1:16:31

cities at all sides of

1:16:34

the in. In Bangladesh there

1:16:36

are approximately one million Rohingya

1:16:38

and live in in most

1:16:40

the squalid refugee camps and

1:16:43

there are several hundred thousand

1:16:45

seven of other countries like

1:16:47

Saudi. Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, India,

1:16:49

Pakistan and and Thailand and

1:16:51

other neighboring countries people are

1:16:53

he said their lives and

1:16:55

to take this and the

1:16:57

very dangerous journey to to

1:16:59

to find a safe haven

1:17:02

and at the Un Icc

1:17:04

C are asked to leave

1:17:06

a sap that in their

1:17:08

reports twenty Twenty Three was

1:17:10

the deadliest year. Of the

1:17:12

really jesse cause it's so. That's

1:17:15

the situation, some they droughts

1:17:17

and now with everything happening

1:17:19

besides the humanitarian crisis and

1:17:21

catastrophes will in the political

1:17:23

discussions and political future where

1:17:25

Israel hinge allies aren't I

1:17:27

do believe that and to

1:17:29

unless we're able to secure

1:17:31

equality and future for the

1:17:33

Rohingya community in Burma Us

1:17:35

which is one of the

1:17:37

most persecuted and the most

1:17:39

as the lessons at the

1:17:42

community that suffered the most.

1:17:44

If we're. Not able to protect

1:17:46

them if we're not able to secure

1:17:48

future for there wasn't just community and

1:17:50

equality and equal rights of Rohingyas Out

1:17:53

week I. Am. I

1:17:55

don't think we'll be able to

1:17:57

ah of find a peaceful Futura

1:17:59

democratic. The target at all of

1:18:01

us that their entire country is and

1:18:03

vision and for the Rohingya it is

1:18:06

much as that the loss of the

1:18:08

political rights and. And. A

1:18:10

Basic Human Rights in Burma over

1:18:13

the past decade, but also. It's

1:18:15

own it it it at they

1:18:18

become a silly ah the victims

1:18:20

and survivors of see this international

1:18:22

crimes such as a genocide and

1:18:24

and skyn some energy as as

1:18:27

was an. Acknowledged

1:18:29

by the Un and as well

1:18:31

as the Us. Koppelman and so

1:18:33

I think that when we it's

1:18:35

a fine solution. For though he

1:18:37

just when we have any political

1:18:39

discussions are on though he says

1:18:42

not we have to figure out

1:18:44

to we have to actively pursue

1:18:46

to pause once a political dogs

1:18:48

and political does discussions how do

1:18:50

we integrate. Reintegrate Rohingya into

1:18:52

the Burmese societies. And as

1:18:55

sure equal rights of included the

1:18:57

political rights which we already had

1:18:59

in the past. At the same

1:19:01

time had we bring justice and

1:19:04

accountability and how do we repair

1:19:06

the. Harm that has been done to their

1:19:08

role. he just community. Jump.

1:19:11

Rope. So last question your him you

1:19:13

paint a picture of a both really

1:19:15

dire circumstances for people and violence and

1:19:17

atrocities been committed and at the same

1:19:20

time. There's. Some

1:19:22

hope in the sense that you have

1:19:24

this unity among different forces in this

1:19:26

progress has been made in fighting back

1:19:28

a loss for someone else is what?

1:19:30

What should external countries be doing that

1:19:32

a year? The United States Obviously what

1:19:34

What policies would you like to see

1:19:36

the United States pursue? And I know

1:19:38

also that the Southeast Asian Countries Aussie

1:19:40

on the block of South East Asian

1:19:42

countries is is t actor. What would

1:19:45

you like to see from foreign governments

1:19:47

that could help persists in the right

1:19:49

direction. They

1:19:51

are many many ways that the Us

1:19:53

government's an audience and the country in

1:19:55

the regions can add to lease as

1:19:58

support the burleigh. Our. the

1:20:02

neighboring countries should

1:20:04

basically provide

1:20:06

the people of Burma with

1:20:08

more protections and more sustainable

1:20:10

parts until we are able

1:20:13

to go back to Burma.

1:20:15

The situation in Bangladesh is

1:20:17

so dire, the conditions

1:20:20

in the camps become extremely

1:20:23

concerning over the past several years and

1:20:25

the situation in

1:20:27

Thailand, there is no, it's

1:20:31

been extremely difficult for the Burmese diaspora

1:20:34

and refugees in Thailand to obtain

1:20:36

any kind of documentations

1:20:39

or to be legal to be able

1:20:41

to remain in Thailand

1:20:43

for, in the meantime

1:20:45

for a while until we're able to go

1:20:47

back. So, you know, all of these neighboring

1:20:49

countries are very important for us. People

1:20:52

of Burma need their support

1:20:54

at this point and the

1:20:57

last thing we'd like to see

1:20:59

is they engaging with the junta

1:21:02

and legitimizing junta's power because that

1:21:04

will not resolve crisis in Burma.

1:21:07

That will only empower the

1:21:09

junta and exacerbate and

1:21:12

prolong the military dictatorship and prolong

1:21:14

the humanitarian crisis. So what we

1:21:16

want to see from the US

1:21:18

is US working with this strategically

1:21:22

important country for people of

1:21:25

Burma and listen

1:21:27

to our demands. There are so many

1:21:30

of them including now that Thailand is

1:21:32

trying to do the

1:21:35

humanitarian corridor through

1:21:37

the Myanmar Red Cross, which is

1:21:39

under control of military. We're saying

1:21:41

that Thailand shouldn't do it because

1:21:43

it is, the Myanmar Red Cross

1:21:45

is controlled by the, under

1:21:47

the junta's

1:21:49

authorities. Instead, Thailand should

1:21:52

work with the civil

1:21:55

society and stakeholders

1:21:57

on the ground including ethnic leaders.

1:22:00

organizations and ethnic political organizations

1:22:02

to be able to provide

1:22:05

the humanitarian assistance to

1:22:09

people who need it. And when it comes to

1:22:11

the Rohingya refugees and

1:22:15

there hasn't been any coordinated

1:22:17

or collaborated effort to provide

1:22:20

protections especially to address

1:22:22

the boat crisis and I

1:22:25

think there should be a lot more

1:22:27

could be done in this regard. There

1:22:29

should be a

1:22:33

coordinated effort to

1:22:36

do search and rescue missions

1:22:38

when necessary and to

1:22:40

provide necessary protections

1:22:44

and safety procedures to the refugees.

1:22:47

And right now, I mean,

1:22:49

the US has done actually a lot and

1:22:51

we acknowledge that there has been a lot

1:22:53

of sanctions in the past several years since

1:22:56

the coup. And

1:22:59

now that we're looking for a more effective

1:23:02

and coordinated action, sanctions

1:23:05

are around aviation fuel and

1:23:07

supply change area around the

1:23:09

aviation fuel as well as

1:23:12

the helping the

1:23:15

Rohingya. So we want to

1:23:17

see a UN Security Council

1:23:19

resolutions under Chapter 7 which

1:23:22

is binding and enforceable and

1:23:24

which include addressing the

1:23:28

justice and accountability and

1:23:30

impunity and prosecutions of

1:23:32

the serious crimes that military

1:23:34

has committed. So, you

1:23:37

know, there are a

1:23:40

lot of things that can be done and we're talking

1:23:42

about it engaging with the US government

1:23:45

but we like to see a more

1:23:47

rigorous and coordinated

1:23:50

actions on Myanmar as US

1:23:52

is very important country for

1:23:54

us. Well,

1:23:57

look, that's a great update

1:24:01

on a lot of dimensions of this. So

1:24:04

we appreciate it. We'll be following this

1:24:06

going forward and appreciate all

1:24:08

of your activism on this over the years. It's

1:24:10

good to see you. Thank

1:24:13

you. Thank you. I hope this is helpful

1:24:15

and hope to see you again. Thanks

1:24:22

again to YWU for joining the show and thanks

1:24:24

to Ona for talking with us again about the

1:24:26

ICJ. It's good to have smart friends you can

1:24:28

just reach out to. Yeah, I know. We're building

1:24:30

a roster of them. Can you

1:24:32

explain this wildly complicated thing to me in a

1:24:34

minute and a half or less? Yeah, better than

1:24:36

I ever could after years of living. Thanks a

1:24:38

minute work. Yeah and

1:24:40

you know don't punch anybody. That's all we

1:24:42

got. Good rule and don't go to any Davos

1:24:45

and whatever. Yeah,

1:24:47

see you in Riyadh.

1:24:49

Yeah. Alright, that's it for us. Talk

1:24:51

to you soon. If

1:24:56

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That's why I love made in cookware each

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