0:04

Good morning everyone, I'm playbook co-author Ryan

0:06

Lizza. It's Tuesday, April 2nd, and here's

0:08

what's driving the day. First

0:10

up, several developments in Trump legal news.

0:13

In the New York fraud case, Donald Trump has

0:15

posted a $175 million bond to stop collection of

0:21

that half a billion dollar judgment against him.

0:24

That prevents the state from seizing

0:27

his assets while Trump appeals the

0:29

verdict, which could take months or

0:31

even years. Trump's court

0:33

filing about the bond did

0:35

not specify which assets Trump

0:37

used as collateral. In

0:40

the New York criminal case, two developments

0:42

worth noting this morning. One, Hope Hicks,

0:44

Donald Trump's former White House communications director,

0:47

will be testifying for the prosecution at

0:50

the trial, which begins on April

0:52

15th. That news comes

0:54

on the same day that the judge in

0:56

the case, Juan Marchán, has

0:58

issued a withering opinion expanding

1:01

his recently issued gag order. That

1:03

gag order will now prohibit Trump

1:05

from attacking family members of both

1:08

the judge and prosecutor

1:10

Alvin Bragg. It

1:12

is no longer just a mere

1:14

possibility or a reasonable likelihood that

1:16

there exists a threat to the

1:18

integrity of the judicial proceedings. The

1:21

threat is very real. The judge

1:23

wrote, The average observer must

1:25

now, after hearing defendants recent attacks,

1:27

draw the conclusion that if they

1:29

become involved in these proceedings, even

1:32

tangentially, they should worry not

1:34

only for themselves, but for

1:36

their loved ones as well. Such

1:39

concerns, he said, constitute a

1:41

direct attack on the

1:43

rule of law itself. Finally,

1:45

the Supreme Court of Florida issued two

1:48

major rulings on abortion yesterday afternoon that

1:50

could have significant implications for the 2024 elections.

2:00

Kimberly Leonard. Good morning, Kimberly. Good

2:03

morning. Okay, so let's

2:05

start with the basics here, Kimberly.

2:07

What did the Supreme Court of

2:09

Florida decide on abortion yesterday?

2:13

The state Supreme Court issued two

2:15

stunning decisions on abortion. First of

2:17

all, they ruled that a 15-week

2:19

abortion ban in Florida, which does

2:21

not have exceptions for rape and

2:23

incest and which has been law

2:25

for months now, could be upheld.

2:27

It had been challenged by various

2:30

opponents under the Right

2:32

to Privacy law and the state

2:34

constitution, and they said that, nope,

2:37

that'll become law. Now, what they

2:39

also did by making that ruling

2:41

was that it triggered a

2:43

six-week abortion ban, which is, of course,

2:46

much more restrictive, and that will go

2:48

into effect in 30 days

2:50

in Florida, and that'll change the whole

2:52

dynamic of the southeast part of the

2:54

U.S. On top of

2:56

that, they issued a decision that'll

2:58

effectively let voters reverse the

3:01

ruling that they just made on abortion,

3:03

and they will put the question of

3:05

abortion rights before voters in November. So

3:07

voters, when they go to the polls,

3:09

when they're voting for who they want

3:11

for president, they'll also have the opportunity

3:13

to look at their ballot and say,

3:15

yes, I want to approve abortion rights

3:17

in Florida, or no, I do not

3:19

want to, and it needs a 60%

3:21

approval to pass. So

3:25

Kimberly, just to be clear, what's been on

3:28

the books and will be on the books

3:30

for another 30 days has been a 15-week

3:32

ban with no exceptions for rape and incest.

3:35

Because of the ruling yesterday, now

3:38

a six-week ban starting

3:40

in 30 days with exceptions for

3:42

rape and incest will be state

3:44

law in Florida. That's

3:47

exactly right. Got it.

3:49

Okay. Kimberly, as you reported on

3:51

Monday in Florida Playbook, we were

3:53

expecting that the Supreme Court would

3:55

decide on whether the abortion referendum

3:58

would be on the... ballot

4:00

or not. But we didn't

4:02

know if the court

4:04

would decide this other issue. Just take us

4:07

through the sort of politics and intrigue about

4:09

that and the fact that they did both

4:11

on the same day. It's

4:13

very interesting because now when Florida voters

4:16

go to the polls, they'll actually have

4:18

a sense of what abortion laws look

4:20

like in the state instead of a

4:22

sort of, you know, descriptor by Democrats of

4:25

what to expect, the threat of

4:27

a six-week ban, they will

4:29

actually experience that ban.

4:31

And they will probably know a lot

4:33

of people who are affected by that

4:35

kind of a ban because the vast

4:37

majority of abortions happen early in a

4:39

pregnancy. And so what

4:42

that means is that for

4:45

Democrats, it'll be a lot easier for

4:47

them to articulate how

4:50

exactly they plan to

4:52

push back and to say, you know,

4:54

that they want abortion rights to be

4:57

enshrined into the state constitution. And

4:59

it puts Republicans on the spot because

5:01

they're basically forced to

5:04

point out this binary choice, right,

5:07

between abortions

5:10

broadly legal and that's what the

5:12

state ballot initiative would

5:14

allow is that abortions would be legal

5:16

up until viability, which is assumed to

5:18

be around 24 weeks into a pregnancy.

5:21

And then it has broad, what they

5:23

call health exceptions, and they don't define

5:25

those health exceptions. And so that's why Republicans

5:27

are saying that it's too extreme, etc.

5:30

But they're going to be forced to have

5:32

voters choose essentially between a six-week ban or

5:34

a abortion being broadly legal, as

5:36

by the way, it has been for the

5:40

vast majority of Florida's history, where

5:42

Florida has really been the one place

5:44

in the southeast where abortion has been

5:46

more available, where patients come, you know,

5:48

from all over the south to access

5:51

abortion care. And so it

5:53

creates a whole new narrative for

5:55

Democrats heading into 2024

5:58

and for the Biden campaign specifically. Yeah,

6:01

so two questions about that. One, is

6:03

there any reliable polling out there about,

6:05

you know, given that sort of choice,

6:08

which way this is likely to go, and then

6:10

take us through the electoral politics?

6:13

I know the Biden campaign obviously

6:15

has seized on this. The campaign

6:17

has talked a big game

6:19

about expanding the playing field and making

6:22

Florida swing state, although I don't think

6:24

they put any money into it. And

6:26

then what are the other Florida level politics

6:28

that we should be paying attention to? Well,

6:31

we do know from putting abortion

6:33

rights on the ballot in other

6:35

states that it does tend to

6:38

pass. What's interesting though is Politico

6:40

did an analysis where they unpacked

6:42

other ballot initiatives and they found

6:45

that even though abortion rights pass,

6:47

that voters want them, they don't

6:49

necessarily vote for Democrats as well.

6:51

So you actually have a lot

6:54

of independent voters and Republican voters

6:56

who support abortion rights who are

6:58

upholding that policy while not subsequently

7:00

electing Democrats. So there's going

7:02

to be a little bit of skepticism in

7:05

terms of whether it could actually

7:07

pay dividends for Florida Democrats,

7:10

because the reality

7:12

is that Republicans far outnumber Democrats in

7:14

the state registered Republicans. I think we're

7:17

at 850,000 more registered Republicans

7:19

than Democrats. That's

7:22

about a 1 million person swing from where

7:24

it was just a few years ago, because

7:27

Democrats used to hold the majority.

7:31

And so they will have to show that they

7:35

believe that it can also result

7:38

in some kind of swing for not

7:40

just President Biden, but also for, you

7:42

know, there's a US Senate race that's

7:44

up for grabs, that they will

7:46

have to show that they could win. I

7:48

mean, Senator Rick Scott is up for reelection,

7:51

but he's favored to win. Donald Trump has

7:53

a lot of support in Florida. When

7:56

Trump was on the ballot in 2020, he won Florida. And

8:01

the fifteen dollar minimum wage also passed

8:03

to ballot initiative even though that was

8:05

something that he never supported. So Florida

8:07

does have this history of he know

8:09

having kind of a mixed bag in

8:11

terms of the ways that it looks

8:14

and it's. Politics. And

8:16

it's politicians. and it's policies. Gonna.

8:19

Can we thank you so much for breaking the soul down

8:21

for a through appreciate it. Thank. You.

8:26

And reschedule today. The house in

8:28

the or out. President Biden doesn't

8:31

have anything on his public schedule.

8:33

Crush on Pure who brief at

8:35

one thirty. I'm Ryan was a

8:37

thanks. For listening.