New World Disorder is characterised by the split up of the world into mutually hostile blocs. This lecture analyses the Economics of Alliances - and the meaning of this for economic performance and markets. How it could impact the role of int
Silicone Valley Bank Bust - the Wider Implications. An analysis in 4 parts:1. why and how banks collapse.2. How Silicone Valley Bank went bust.3. Spillover effects - direct, financial flows & the broader economy.4. Offsets limiting the fallout
Globally and in Europe, nuclear is on the rise. A lot is to do with reducing dependence on Russia. More is about meeting climate goals. Highly significant is the inclusion of "nuclear" (and natural gas) in the taxonomy of ESG and FFDR funds
The Future History of Russia's WarThis episode has the following forecast timeline:1. Russia gets the upper hand in a war of attrition in Ukraine. 2. The cost is a weakening of Russia globally. 3. The Russian upper hand in this war of attritio
Earthquakes, Oil Cuts, BoJ succession & Russian War "successes": How they affect geopolitical stability, global economics and your assets. A view of events in Turkey, Russia, Ukraine & Tokyo
The False Felicities of Markets & the Consensus Global Outlook.Markets are important inputs to the real economy. Current optimism is based on 5 Felicities: 1. No global recession; 2. Central Banks create a new Goldilocks scenario; 3. China re-e
Energy Crisis- the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.Oil prices will reach $120 in 2022 and $140 in 2024. Imbalance in supply and demand drives prices up. This piece looks at: Demand : 1. global avoidance of recession; 2. Ch
Musical Chairs in Moscow: The Epic Short Tenure of Russian GeneralIn the span of little more than a day: Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the combined Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister replaces Sergey Surovi
Ukraine: The Latest Arms Package - Panacea or Plaster?Does the latest package allow Ukraine to win the war decisively? No! We are still fighting the war based on Russian rules . The quantity and category of arms included are insufficient to a
We take democracy and the rule of law for given. But the survival of democracy is far from given. That much is evident in the state of war with Russia; the emergence Global World Disorder with competing power blocks locked in Cold War make;
Hitchhikers Guide to Quantum Economics and Quantum Computing.The sound track of Hitchhikers Guide to Quantum Economics and Quantum Computing.Soundtrack only. Full presentation on You Tube: https://youtu.be/XRH0WRYLnks.How Quantum Physics l
Omicron Covid (B.1.1.529) variant - the economy and markets.The Pandemic has become a Permademic. Even without Omicron, global cases have doubled since September. For the moment Europe is the epicentre . But it moves in waves globally. It w
Covid Omicron - What it means for economies and investors.The Pandemic has now become a Permademic. It moves in waves globally. But never goes. More deadly species emerge in developing economies and spread like wildfire to vaccinated countri
The US Fed, The Appointments and Your Pocket!What does the renomination of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and the nomination of Lael Brainard as Vice Chair mean for monetary policy, interest rates and markets.
COP 26 The Great Climate Copout Why does COP 26 emit more hot air than Green House Gas cuts? What would COP 26 have to deliver to succeed? What does it deliver - a critical look at its three touted agreements on Rain Forests, Coal and Methane