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Walk rates barrel. It has Wednesday March Twenty

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leave us a nice reading review wherever you

1:00

listen to this podcast and send you know

1:02

some allergy medicine because he. Looks.

1:04

A little roughed up today. Oak.

1:07

Trees Do. Oak trees the

1:09

worst. You know, you know,

1:11

like you know what their their leaves are like.

1:14

Yeah. Pain.

1:18

Pain. And then they

1:20

had a poem or oak trees of the

1:22

worst if we have an oak tree ranking.

1:25

At the bottom of the list or

1:27

in a tree ranking and put an

1:29

oak trees of the bottom well or

1:31

at three rankings for early April when

1:33

we're waiting for more sample for baseball

1:35

or I have a path that that

1:37

ads are week will happen if week

1:39

one filler because we gliding or last

1:41

ten minutes of an episode three ranking

1:44

with with are waiting another discord immediately

1:46

with any insight you have no tricycle

1:48

of the the great I just than

1:50

think a lot about them may be

1:52

assured you go left as is a

1:54

problem around here because they're invasive and.

1:56

they're not from here and they get top

1:58

heavy and then they they're not used the

2:00

winds and they popped top all over. Also

2:03

at the bottom of my list. I

2:05

have helped clean up eucalyptus on a

2:07

bike path in the name of science

2:09

in Northern California. So I fully understand

2:12

that particular problem, but yes, tree rankings

2:14

next week, we look forward to. We

2:17

have too much to do today. Shut up, you know, we actually

2:19

have stuff on the run now today. Stop ruining it. We

2:21

have a signing. Jordan Montgomery has signed with

2:24

the Diamondbacks one year, $25 million. Couldn't

2:27

most of the league have found

2:29

that for Jordan Montgomery, given that

2:31

most of the league has a

2:33

need for innings in their starting rotations.

2:37

And with all the injuries we've had this spring,

2:39

you'd think that somebody would be looking, uh, you

2:41

know, the, the, the Yankees are

2:43

out here running out Clark Schmidt

2:46

and Luis heel, uh, and,

2:48

uh, decided to pass on this

2:51

situation. So, you know, I know

2:53

it's always about payroll. It's always

2:55

about the luxury tax and so

2:58

on and so forth, but, uh, Arizona

3:00

is spending some of that, uh, world

3:02

series cash. Uh, I think with Jordan

3:04

Montgomery in it, they're only up to

3:06

167 million this year. It's

3:10

nice to have a clean balance sheet. I

3:13

guess it's a little funny

3:15

to like sort of chase money

3:17

after money though. Right. You signed it. What are

3:19

the, he goes, he goes down. You

3:22

sign someone for more. Um,

3:25

but Edward already gets assigned for longer. This

3:28

will end up being, I think a two

3:30

year deal. He vests

3:33

into the player option. Ah, he vests

3:36

into a player option, uh, after

3:38

10 starts. So if

3:40

he makes 10 starts, it can be a two year, $50

3:42

meal, $50 deal. Um,

3:46

but, um, it's

3:48

a player option, not a team option. So he can

3:50

join, he can join the market again if he likes.

3:52

So now that he has a team and

3:54

now that he ended up in a place, it's not

3:56

a hitter friendly environment, I imagine for the remaining

3:59

draft. Wednesday, Thursday, throughout the weekend,

4:01

Montgomery jumps up a little bit in terms

4:03

of where he goes. How much do you

4:05

trust his skills at this point? I mean,

4:07

we've had a two year window where the

4:10

ratios have been very good, but the strikeout

4:12

rate has been down a tick from where

4:14

it was during his time with the Yankees,

4:16

right? We saw 24 plus percent K rates

4:18

from him a little earlier in his career.

4:20

Now he seems to have settled in kind

4:22

of in that 21, 22 percent range. Yeah,

4:25

I have a hard time pushing

4:28

him too much. We've

4:30

got a four plus ERA projection on him

4:32

using stuff plus and then, you know,

4:35

we've got a 20.5 strikeout, percent

4:39

strikeout rate projection, which I

4:41

guess would be one of

4:43

his lowest of his career, but also

4:45

is just commensurate with the kind of stuff he has,

4:47

I think. And he's never been a

4:49

big strikeout rate guy. So that's

4:52

why the market didn't really want to

4:54

take a plunge for a long contract

4:56

despite his good ERA's the last three

4:58

years. It's a stuff plus league right

5:00

now and he was on the wrong

5:03

side of that. I

5:05

think the Arizona did well to get a

5:07

short deal that they didn't, like

5:09

25 million is not actually, that's pushing the AAV, but

5:11

it's not pushing it a lot.

5:13

It's not one of these max Scherzer deals

5:15

where it's, you know, what, like two and

5:18

60 or whatever crazy deal he

5:20

signed at one point with the Mets. So

5:23

I think it's a decent deal. I just

5:25

nudged him up from the low 40s to

5:27

the, I mean from the high

5:29

40s to the low 40s. So

5:32

I think, you know, my would

5:34

you rather is

5:36

Jordan Montgomery or Aaron Savalie? Aaron

5:38

Savalie. See, I

5:41

have him right behind Aaron Savalie still. But

5:43

how about this? The next one

5:45

is you say Kukuchi. Jordan

5:48

Montgomery, but. See. Yeah, but

5:50

that's the part of the draft where with

5:52

any of those three, you might

5:55

choose one over the other for different reasons

5:57

where you might say, I'm worried

5:59

about Savalie's health. history. I want some

6:01

innings with good ratios. I'm going Montgomery. I

6:04

want the guy that brings me the most

6:06

possible ceiling. That's Kukuchi, but he also

6:08

brings the most downside, right? So it is a

6:10

little bit of a fork

6:12

or to use the tree analogy. You got a few branches here so

6:14

you got to choose which way you want to go. But in

6:18

a vacuum... That you might have something to do with

6:20

what you did earlier. Yeah. In a vacuum, Savali is

6:22

the one I'd rather have, not thinking

6:24

about the rest of the build. But

6:26

again, not by a lot because I do trust the

6:28

ratios. I do trust the park and the team context

6:30

is good. Maybe we have some

6:33

questions again about the Arizona bullpen for the

6:35

reason we talked about yesterday. Losing Paul Seawolf

6:37

makes them one thinner. That could hurt

6:39

the starters a little bit just in

6:41

terms of protecting their leads and helping

6:44

them pile up wins. But Jordan Montgomery

6:46

goes from the World Series winners to

6:48

the World Series runner-ups at

6:50

a very, very fair one-year

6:52

deal that no one would have predicted

6:54

all the way back in the

6:56

start of the winter. We have an update

6:58

on Matt McLean. He had

7:01

shoulder surgery. It's not good. Cartilage

7:03

damage and the labrum repair.

7:05

Labrum repair is bad. In the left shoulder.

7:07

Yep. The lead shoulder form. Even if he

7:09

comes back this year, I can't imagine the

7:11

power is there. It's hard

7:14

to rely on that. And I think in

7:16

situations where you have limited IL spots or no

7:19

IL spots, this is probably not a player you're

7:21

going to hold. If you do have limited IL

7:23

spots, you hold them until you can't. But

7:25

the timetable so far into the future, it's

7:28

late second half most likely. I mean,

7:30

I think Logan O'Hoppy had

7:32

this last year, suffered it kind of early in the

7:34

year. And he came back for like 50 plate appearances

7:37

or something? Came back and was productive. Like that's almost

7:39

to me like the performance part

7:41

of that's the outlier, right? So

7:43

yeah, you're looking at several months

7:45

before Matt McLean is back and

7:47

the stability that this unfortunately provides

7:49

Jonathan India, unfortunate

7:52

for McLean, fortunate for India. Well, he

7:54

did manage 199 plate appearances, O'Hoppy did.

7:56

But yes, I mean that coming back

7:58

with that amount of power. after

8:01

that injury I agree really

8:04

frustrating but Jonathan India probably moving

8:06

up boards even more I think

8:08

it's easy to lose sight of this India last

8:10

year when 14 for 16 on

8:12

the base paths and just 119 games so there could be 20 steals

8:17

with the full season of health

8:19

and a full season of playing time and

8:21

now there's the increased probability of that actually

8:23

happening because of McLean's absence and the long

8:26

suspension for Noel V Marte oh

8:28

I mean it's crazy that Santiago

8:30

Espinal deal that didn't

8:32

make much sense at the time makes

8:34

a lot more sense now they actually

8:36

need Santiago Espinal to paper over some

8:39

of their issues especially since they let

8:41

Jose Barrero go where

8:43

did Barrero go Barrero

8:45

ended up Jose

8:47

Barrero ended up on the

8:50

Rangers he made the

8:52

team too but Espinal

8:55

takes over for Barrero and gets

8:57

I don't know 300 plate

8:59

appearances maybe this year today you

9:02

want a deep deep sleeper Jose

9:04

Barrero getting a fresh start in

9:06

a new organization with Donnie Ecker

9:08

and group coaches that had a

9:10

lot of success in Texas last

9:12

year I'm intrigued Barrero wasn't bad at

9:14

AAA he's 25 but 19 homers

9:17

20 steals and 21 attempts and

9:20

80 games okay could be

9:22

a late bloomer it's possible I tend

9:24

to think he's a help

9:27

at shortstop but

9:29

see you're ended up making the

9:32

opening day roster so I

9:36

don't know exactly what Barrero will do

9:40

it's more of just depth at this point

9:42

not necessarily when you're relying on outside of

9:44

very deep a L only leagues but for

9:46

your last reserve pick in your a L

9:49

only league that hasn't happened yet consider Jose

9:51

Barrero and Barrero's all over that last reserve

9:53

pick in your a L only we helped

9:55

even five people with that advice I feel

9:58

like our job here is done We

10:00

have some news on Dylan Carlson, a follow-up that

10:03

he is going to be in the season on

10:05

the I.L. so Victor Scott is headed to St.

10:07

Louis and I saw a lot of chatter around

10:10

Discord or Twitter wondering

10:12

if Victor Scott is actually a Stereo

10:14

Ease 2.0 in terms of being this

10:16

kind of speed heavy player that might

10:18

not hit the ball hard enough. So

10:20

this is a little more of a

10:22

broad question but feel free to

10:24

take it any direction you want. How

10:26

do you look at players like this? The

10:29

speedsters that have some power in the minor

10:31

leagues and how do you discern which of

10:33

those players has enough power

10:35

to actually carry that against top-level pitching?

10:38

Because what happens a lot of times

10:40

is premium velocity,

10:43

something these guys don't see enough of in

10:45

the minor leagues is a normalcy

10:47

once they get to the big leagues and the

10:49

power falls off a cliff even though you see

10:52

productive power seasons at multiple minor league stops.

10:54

History Ruiz as an example, 2021 in 84

10:57

games at double A popped 10 homers but that's

11:01

pretty good. You'd think 15 plus homers in

11:03

the big league someday would be possible but then

11:05

you get to the big leagues, you get

11:08

to see some more hard hit data, you get

11:10

to see barrel rates, you get a better sense

11:12

for how guys pitch them and you realize okay

11:14

you know those home runs happened but the way those

11:17

home runs happen make them unlikely

11:19

to unfold at the highest

11:21

level. So do you have any of those concerns

11:23

about Scott and what kind of steers you in

11:25

the direction of believing in a player's power when

11:27

they have a profile like this? Well

11:30

I have a two-part answer. One is

11:32

that specifically with Scott I am flying blind

11:34

a little bit. It's a little bit based

11:36

on discussions I've had with him that

11:39

make me think he has some

11:42

nascent power in there. I would

11:44

much rather he had played at triple A so

11:46

I could get a max CV number if

11:49

not a barrel number. We don't

11:52

have that with Scott so I would

11:54

say I don't

11:56

know with Scott. I

11:58

think he's not really but it's

12:00

certainly possible. One thing is

12:35

that he's always had way higher strikeout

12:38

and swinging strike rates than I want

12:40

out of this kind of player. So

12:43

when he last year struck out 20%

12:46

of the time, that doesn't seem like a big

12:48

deal. That's still better than average, but for this

12:51

kind of profile, it's not good enough. This

12:54

kind of profile, if you don't have the power,

12:56

you need to make a ton of contact, put

12:58

everything into play. Think of Luis Araya's type. You

13:00

need to be kind of that guy where you're

13:02

just putting a bunch of singles in play, and

13:04

then all of a sudden you're on second. 20%

13:08

with a 12% swing strike rate is not

13:10

it for Ruiz, where

13:13

Scott came up with lower strikeout

13:15

rates and lower swing strike rates. Not

13:17

by a huge margin, but by enough

13:19

where it might actually make a difference.

13:22

So what you want Scott to do if he doesn't

13:25

have power is what he did this spring is a

13:28

404 OBP, a 15% strikeout rate. 380

13:33

BABBET might sound high, but you know, what about a 340

13:36

BABBET? Then he hits 270 with a 360 OBP. He's

13:39

still a top of the lineup guy even without

13:41

the power. So my

13:44

answer is I'm guessing on the

13:46

power. That's

13:49

just something where you can look at scout

13:51

grades. He only has

13:53

30 power according to Fangrafts.

13:55

So that's a defensible position. And

13:58

then the other part is The

14:00

answer is what do you do outside of

14:02

the power that could make you good enough

14:04

to succeed without power. And that's a fine

14:06

line. There's very few people that do it.

14:08

It's stepping outside of the offensive profile. The

14:10

defense matters in a big way. Victor Scott

14:12

projects to be a well above average defensive

14:14

center fielder and history reese does not. Yeah,

14:17

he's already being platooned and already being moved

14:19

off center. So that's

14:22

part of my second answer, which is like, you know, the

14:25

other things other than power that

14:27

makes Scott a better player. I'll

14:30

turn to the scouting grades from Eric Longan Hagen and

14:32

the great team over at Fangrafts here again for a

14:34

second, too. It's interesting that they had a 35 hit

14:37

tool on a Stury Ruiz

14:39

when he graduated. 40

14:41

game power and 50 raw. Scott

14:44

has 45 present hit tool with 50

14:47

future, 30 game power,

14:49

present and future, 30 raw power.

14:52

So the concerns about the power are real. 70

14:54

field. What's the field? 70

14:56

field, 80 speed. And then the hit

14:58

tool difference. I think the hit tool difference is really,

15:01

really big. The gap between a 35 and

15:03

a 45 is like a lot bigger than

15:05

you realize. So when you

15:07

pair that with the fielding defense, it

15:10

might look like the

15:12

same categorical contributions from a

15:14

roto perspective. But I

15:16

think the real life implications might be

15:18

such that Victor Scott is also better

15:21

because he draws more walks and the

15:23

OVP stays higher and maybe he can

15:25

be more of a table setter. So

15:27

yes, the concerns about the power are

15:29

legit, but they are different players because

15:31

of other aspects of their profiles. And

15:34

I don't know why, man. I think he's going

15:36

to develop some power. I

15:38

just want to be decimated

15:40

by another Victor. I'm

15:42

ready to move on. Victor

15:45

in part two. Victor 2.0. That's

15:48

what I'm ready for. So this

15:50

is the one-liner, the Prospects TLDR

15:52

line and Victor Scott. In

15:55

fielders beware, Scott is a bunt

15:57

inclined speedster at potential gold gloves

15:59

and fielder. When you say

16:01

Bunton Klein speedster, I think of Victor

16:04

Robles. That's

16:06

right, he used his phone all the time. I think

16:08

about my exes. I

16:11

think about my exes in Texas. Oh, this

16:13

is a bad place to be. This

16:18

is Nate Taylor and I cover the Kansas City Chiefs

16:20

for the athletics. I love locker

16:22

rooms after games. When I walk in that

16:24

locker room, I have the eyes and ears

16:26

of our subscribers. As a journalist, it's my

16:28

duty to ask the hard questions and to

16:30

get some true honesty from athletes and coaches.

16:32

It's a real joy to cover football, to

16:34

be a hunter and a gatherer of views,

16:36

to get something that's revealing that you may

16:38

not be able to see on television. I'm

16:41

from Kansas City, so I've watched this team

16:43

my entire life not knowing that this was

16:45

going to be my job. There

16:47

are hundreds of my colleagues who care just

16:50

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16:52

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the New York Times. You can find

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out more at nytimes.com/athletic. Ever

17:15

tried to break a bad habit and felt

17:18

like you're climbing Everest in flip flops? Yeah,

17:20

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18:32

make starting the good habit that much

18:35

easier. So let's talk

18:37

about some spring stats that we believe in because we're kind of

18:39

bumping into this topic a

18:41

little bit anyway. And this

18:44

goes back to Jason Colette

18:46

at First Pitch Arizona. If

18:48

you missed the episode where we previously talked about

18:50

this, he looked at spring training stolen base attempts

18:52

last year to try and get a better sense

18:54

for how much more the league it was going

18:56

to run and based on how

18:58

much teams were running in the Grapefruit League

19:01

and in the Cactus League, he actually ended

19:03

up with a really solid projection for what

19:05

was going to happen in the regular season.

19:07

So knowing that we have this kind of

19:09

significant indicator of how much he was going

19:11

to run He was almost like

19:14

plus 40% and then it was plus 40%. It

19:17

was really, really close once he ran the

19:20

calculations and it's leading us to say okay,

19:22

stolen bases in spring training probably matter in

19:24

terms of team intent because teams are testing

19:26

that out trying to see who's effective at

19:29

running, who's not, trying to see if they

19:31

can get an edge in that area. You

19:34

put together a table with some

19:36

leaders, team leaders in spring stolen

19:38

bases and there were a few

19:40

surprising teams on here. The Angels

19:43

lead the league, both leagues with

19:46

30 steals this spring. New

19:48

manager, Ron Washington, not a lot

19:50

of new personnel though, right? It's

19:52

kind of the same cast of

19:55

characters, less Shohei Otani as far

19:57

as who is actually stealing

19:59

bases. for this Angels team. Yeah

20:01

there's a there's

20:04

a little bit of a wrinkle there where

20:07

you know Jake Marisnik is one of the

20:11

leaders and it says here that he will

20:14

begin the season of AAA Salt Lake so you

20:17

know the personnel does matter to

20:20

some extent but not fully you know what

20:24

I mean like just because Marisnik won't

20:26

be on the Angels doesn't mean that they aren't going

20:28

to take off. It's it's a serial decision you

20:31

know it's it's like

20:33

a it's like a go

20:37

or don't go. It's like a

20:39

do you have the green light or not do you need

20:41

to look over and get the sign or do you feel

20:44

like you can just do it you know and

20:46

so Marisnik or no I think the

20:48

Angels are going to take off Adele is actually kind

20:50

of a funky sleeper out of

20:52

this which

20:54

is that I think you know Adele

20:56

at this point is like a he's

21:00

got nowhere to go and the team

21:02

is sort of desperate for any kind

21:04

of star power any kind of young

21:07

possible star power and with Micky

21:09

Moniac having the worst plate discipline

21:11

and plate skills in baseball like

21:13

almost literally Adele

21:16

even though he has some of the worst

21:18

contact rates in baseball could sneak into this

21:20

team I mean this is a team that

21:22

has Aaron Hicks lined up at DH he's

21:24

going to steal bases he's a kind of

21:26

Adele type sleeper I think Adele

21:29

is only really a keeper in AL

21:31

only like only type sleeper himself but

21:34

if he steals a couple bases in the

21:36

first week and he's playing every day or

21:38

playing close to every day I would

21:41

I would keep a close eye on him if you're

21:43

in a punt batting average situation he's a perfect player

21:45

for that six stolen bases

21:47

this spring if you just totally change

21:49

his stolen base projections he projects in

21:52

half a season to go 15-15 so

21:54

if they just decide

21:57

finally just to give him a full time role

22:00

And yeah, he might hit 230 and have a 300 OBP, but he

22:02

could go 30-30 as one of the ugliest 30-30

22:06

seasons in the history of baseball. Would

22:11

be fun, and it's made possible or

22:13

probable by this more probable by this

22:15

sort of quirk of

22:19

Ron Washington being the leader there.

22:21

You got a new manager in

22:24

Milwaukee who seems to want

22:26

to run wild. I think that's

22:28

meaningful for Jackson Churio. Churio's got these sort

22:30

of, he's a rookie projections,

22:32

right? Well, Churio's

22:35

power is the question mark, not necessarily

22:37

his ability to get on base, hit

22:39

for batting average or steal bases. What

22:41

if he steals 30? You know, the

22:44

Brewers are second on that list. Lane

22:47

Thomas leads the Nationals. We

22:50

all think of Lane Thomas as a guy who will steal

22:52

15 or whatever. Maybe

22:55

not. Maybe it's 40. Across

22:58

spring training, this is from Jason Kled

23:00

himself, across spring training

23:03

last year there were 2.18 stolen base

23:05

attempts per game, this year 2.24. So

23:09

generally there's going to be inflation across

23:11

the board, and I'm not

23:13

sure how it will play out again, but

23:16

I think you will see some surprising guys.

23:19

The one question I have that I always have

23:21

is like how, what will happen at the very

23:23

top? We had Acuna

23:25

going for 70, but we only had, we

23:27

had nobody else going over 60. Would we have a

23:29

guy go to 100, or is it going

23:32

to just be a lot more 30s and 20s? I

23:36

think that's sort of what happened last year. So I

23:38

would predict more 20s and 30s. So

23:40

Churio instead of the 15 or 18 gets to 25-30,

23:42

and Lane Thomas gets to 30, and maybe Adele

23:48

gets to 20-20 plus. So those

23:51

are the takeaways that

23:53

I have from the spring leaders in that department.

23:55

Yeah, I was looking back at some of the

23:57

angels on an individual level. Zach Nettles, 4-0. for

24:00

five as a base stealer this year this spring in

24:02

22 games he was five for six and 84 games

24:05

last year he is seemingly going to

24:07

run a lot more so if you add

24:09

that toggle yeah you add 10 to

24:11

15 more steals to Zack Nettles projection that

24:13

would actually do a lot in terms of

24:15

where he go 2020 or whatever yeah suddenly

24:17

he's more interesting I think you're kind of

24:19

right about Adele at least for super deep

24:21

leagues he's six for six this spring they

24:24

showed last year they were willing to be very

24:26

patient and tolerant of Mickey Moniac's swing and miss

24:28

given that Adele is out of options I think

24:30

they're gonna give him at least a handful of

24:32

opportunities to break through as a part-time player still

24:35

more of a really really deeply consideration they

24:37

even had Brandon Drury running this spring

24:39

he was 0 for 2 last season

24:41

at 125 games he's 0 for 2

24:43

again this spring but there

24:46

it is like everybody is getting chances

24:48

to do that I was wondering is

24:50

Mike Trout's trying to steal some bases

24:52

this spring even Trout's got one don't

24:54

think Trout's gonna go back to early

24:56

career 20-30 steel seasons again but he

24:58

might be more than one

25:00

or two he might be five or ten which

25:02

is kind of nice if you're expecting

25:05

zero and you get that little bit of

25:07

a bonus so yeah it looks like a

25:09

clear organizational philosophy there I would

25:12

look at a player like Sal Freelik with the

25:14

Brewers and say yeah not only if

25:16

you read coverage about the team you

25:19

get a sense that Sal Freelik is Pat

25:21

Murphy's kind of guy they they

25:24

have a pretty high level of trust in

25:26

his athleticism anyway moving him from the outfield

25:28

to the dirt and then now back

25:31

to the center field and then probably back to

25:33

the dirt again later this year at third base

25:35

which is kind of remarkable so

25:37

I look at that and say

25:39

okay like this is a guy that fits what

25:41

they're trying to do and he's attempted

25:44

seven stolen bases in 17 games this spring

25:46

he's four for seven but his minor

25:49

league success rates his speed those things

25:51

and his OBP all point to

25:53

him being a guy that could actually steal a

25:55

lot of bases and projections are modest 13 to

25:57

16 steals is what

26:00

you're gonna see so I'd be I'd

26:02

be surprised if really didn't pop in yeah

26:04

I think that's the more likely expectation for

26:06

a player like that I saw the Guardians

26:08

and Nationals popping on that list then you

26:11

know the Nats not much has changed theirs

26:13

as far as Davey Martinez being a holdover

26:15

manager but the Guardians I feel like they're

26:17

a team that we almost never

26:19

talk about and usually it's gonna poking

26:22

them in the ribs for being frugal and

26:24

saying hey you know you can

26:26

try but Steven Vote is a new manager right they have

26:28

a new and how do you goose a

26:31

low-power high contact offense run

26:33

I'd be get him on

26:35

first get him to second Andre Samana's

26:37

a six stolen bases this

26:40

spring and he's he's

26:42

third on the overall list so

26:45

you know if you if you bought him for

26:47

30 steals I think you should feel pretty good

26:49

about that and he could be a candidate for

26:51

that 4550 level right

26:53

right and something that's happened throughout this

26:55

draft season we talked about CJ Abrams

26:58

a bunch of times and the early

27:00

like third fourth round ADP he carries

27:02

and saying okay like there's

27:04

a lot of ways for him to even still move up

27:06

in value if he keeps getting better as a hitter but

27:09

there are players like him who were

27:11

slightly below average by WRC plus to

27:13

have some power and have a lot

27:15

of speed they could put up similar

27:17

numbers at a lower price Andre

27:20

Samenez is part of the reason why

27:22

I was so reluctant to build around

27:24

CJ Abrams throughout draft season because I

27:26

see I see a similar

27:28

floor but I don't see a similar

27:30

ceiling too because we're still talking about a

27:33

guy in Jimenez who's 25 but there's a

27:35

very good chance we haven't seen his absolute

27:37

best season yet and that might just be

27:39

a combination of you know higher mid-teens power

27:41

that we saw in 2022 a better average

27:43

in OBP like

27:46

we saw that year with the added speed from

27:48

the new rules that might be what that career

27:50

year actually looks like I'm

27:52

happy to get that at a discount so if

27:55

you're in the wait a little bit for

27:57

your speed group the way that I have been throughout this

27:59

draft season Andres Jimenez is someone

28:01

that might fit really really well where he's going

28:03

and it's nice to see the Guardians and maxing

28:06

out those green lights the spring We've

28:09

got a blue Jays down table. They're

28:11

not in the top five, but

28:13

I think they're six So, you know, they'd

28:16

look like they're running it is funny though

28:18

one player can change the math

28:20

on this Dalton Varsho leads

28:22

the entire spring training With

28:25

eight stolen bases the blue Jays have 18 this

28:27

spring So it's eight for Varsho and ten for

28:29

the rest of the team. I don't

28:31

see another Toronto guy in the top 25. So It

28:35

could just be Varsho and Varsho alone that's

28:37

driving that train but

28:40

that's a team I don't know that it's

28:42

not really a managerial change so much as

28:46

You know, it's a team that didn't score as

28:48

much as they wanted to last year It's a

28:50

player that didn't play as well as you wanted

28:52

to last year it seems to be kind of

28:54

a pairing of needs where Varsho

28:56

is probably gonna run a little bit

28:58

more this year and And

29:01

and just overall I think he's a guy

29:03

I'd like, you know And

29:06

if you change his projections to 25 20,

29:09

which is only giving him four stolen bases on

29:11

a lot of these projections Then

29:14

his 240 average that he's

29:16

projected for 232 40 becomes a

29:18

lot more palatable Is that

29:20

the right way to say it? I've always said palatable

29:24

But I've heard you and Brit say palatable

29:26

and now now I'm really not

29:28

sure it's an earworm thing I saw

29:30

a commercial for tinnitus and I

29:32

was like I that's tinnitus. What are you

29:34

talking about? But tinnitus? Is that like a

29:38

But I don't even know what kind of ringing of the ear. Oh It's

29:41

tonight. I thought it was tonight. Anyway,

29:43

clearly we didn't go to medical palatable

29:49

Dr. Day past classes and

29:51

English and linguistics I

29:53

don't know what else is like

29:55

super meaningful for me in spring. We've

29:58

talked a lot about plate appearance But

30:01

that can even be a little

30:03

bit misleading will your abreu leads

30:05

the entire spring training with 77

30:07

played appearances as Currently

30:10

constructed I see sedan Rafaela

30:12

playing center and Jaron during

30:15

during playing a corner Yoshida

30:17

playing DH And

30:20

O'Neill playing a corner. So if a brave mix

30:22

that team he didn't have a great spring and

30:25

if he makes that team I feel like It's

30:29

in a part-time role. So maybe it was

30:31

that you know, there's that like wanting

30:34

to see more of the guy You

30:36

know to make a decision versus he's

30:39

making a team So second is Wyatt

30:42

Langford with 71 played appearances. That's absolutely

30:44

meaningful Because he didn't

30:46

go down. He didn't go anywhere They gave

30:48

him play parents as many as they could every day.

30:50

So down Rafaela is third

30:53

So generally I think played appearances

30:55

matter guys that stick out In

30:58

that are high in played appearances Sal

31:01

Freelich second mention I

31:03

don't know. I don't know why

31:05

Alexander Canario is eighth in played

31:08

appearances That means something more than

31:11

I know what to do with it He was a

31:13

late roster cut for them though Like they were trying

31:15

to get a long look I think to decide if

31:17

he belonged as a backup outfielder right away Or if

31:19

he needed a little more time as an everyday player

31:22

Yeah, so I guess that's a you know, you got

31:24

to like want to take a look

31:26

to make a decision versus Giving

31:28

him all that like Jackson Cheerios fifth and I

31:30

absolutely saw that coming a mile away Plus

31:33

the contract and so I have some shares

31:35

of Cheerio and redrafts where I thought this

31:37

guy's gonna play Here's a name for you

31:39

12 overall in

31:42

played appearances is a mr.

31:44

Lawrence Butler and You

31:47

know the outfield and Oakland has been playing really

31:49

well J. Day put day has great spring numbers.

31:52

I I'm not

31:54

gonna tell you to draft him based on his batting

31:56

average etc. But Lawrence

31:59

Butler's. Playing time comes

32:01

with a reduced strikeout rate which

32:03

would change. His of

32:05

side immensely has been the one

32:07

question about what he has. He

32:10

has above average power, he has

32:12

above average speed he has bob

32:14

average defense. In looks

32:16

like he might even have above average ability

32:18

get on base so you're adding a lot

32:20

of above average is together. If you add

32:22

an above average strikeout rates and strikeout rate

32:25

is something I will look at in spring

32:27

just because if you had sixty two major

32:29

the plate appearances in the early going to

32:31

have a twelve percent strikeout rate from Lawrence

32:33

bothers you would take notice. You.

32:35

Know, so I know it's not always

32:37

had to give uneven competitions frank, but

32:39

it's still matters somewhat. some. If

32:42

Lawrence Butler this year strikes out twenty

32:44

four, twenty three percent, the times you

32:46

can changes for Jackson to like it

32:49

to forty five to fifty average. That's.

32:52

A guy who can hit two fifty?

32:54

It's it. Fifteen to eighteen homers and

32:56

study twenty backs. You

32:58

want that? Would. Yeah, I think

33:00

Butler has more intriguing tools that

33:03

matter to a major league team

33:05

more than as dreary. So if

33:07

the. Who do you play? Against

33:10

righties. Question comes up with those two

33:12

guys? It reason corner guy, not a

33:14

center fielder. He's competing more with Butler

33:16

in the long run for time. I'll.

33:19

Give that up to a not been playing

33:21

center. That's another thing I look at in

33:23

Spring is where they're playing but days and

33:25

playing center sang grasses on this. They moved

33:28

to a day to to center sixty one

33:30

percent of the time Butler backing him up.

33:32

Butler bragging Seth Brown up. A

33:34

butler backing bread rock Her

33:36

butler bragging backing estuaries up

33:38

so. He's. Is everywhere on

33:40

this depth chart and it's just not

33:43

quite enough. for once you pair it

33:45

with the spring traded places. He started

33:47

the saying okay he's good, at least

33:49

gonna play every day that resets. You.

33:52

Know. And he might

33:54

start taking away plate appearances

33:56

ah from Brown and Rooker

33:59

because brow. In rooker

34:01

are these Brown brown

34:03

has soft skills for.

34:06

Future. You. Don't bet on

34:08

a guy like Brown. I've I'm sorry, I'm

34:10

not. Dices have been hidden in overnight. he's

34:12

thirty or he wanted. That's the. that's the

34:14

strikes out a lot, you know, He.

34:17

Never he has his career. oh it is

34:19

today. Size means like he's either guy you

34:21

have for a while and in his someone

34:23

else starts by by then. So.

34:25

Be it, yeah. That bothers. very

34:27

interesting know any a really. Last year

34:29

took that step forward with decay rate

34:32

while moving up the double a interplay

34:34

and. That. Sort of. Muslims

34:36

Good lead up. Into. What he's

34:38

done this spring? That continuation that we're seeing

34:41

right now. I think that's what makes him

34:43

so exciting. And even if there were some

34:45

warts in his first run against degree pitching,

34:47

the key rate jumping, the walk rate falling.

34:50

He didn't have a ridiculously high

34:52

chase rate. He. Made a decent

34:54

amount of hard contact. Thirty seven percent heart

34:56

rate fine for a player that young in

34:58

his debut. With that, there was more good

35:00

than bad and the underlying numbers for Butler

35:03

to self. Really interesting guy that if he

35:05

wasn't drafted, might start popping up on early

35:07

season waiver wire columns. If playing time is

35:09

actually their the way we expect to be.

35:12

Given. Where they're at the rebuild them

35:14

in totally makes sense that the thing

35:16

you put together was a spring. Leader.

35:19

Board of of Rotation T Minus B

35:21

B I believe as we told me

35:23

this was. And. Yeah.

35:26

Ah, It's nuts.

35:29

I'd as one the point out that

35:32

like you know the marlins. Player

35:34

Development Pitching part of Helmand is not

35:36

just about the park. Near

35:39

know. We've. Seen some real good advances

35:41

from Weather's Myers is coming back they

35:43

turn out guys and they travel guys

35:45

were good and other places too so

35:47

it's not the of have a lopez

35:50

wasn't just the park is the of.

35:52

Turns out. On and so

35:54

this is. This is pretty eye popping. The

35:56

Marlins have eight thirty one point six percent

35:58

strikeout rate and of five. 27%

36:00

walk rate from their starters of spring and this isn't

36:02

even the a squad You know

36:05

what I mean half their pictures are hurt So

36:07

I wanted to point that out I also

36:09

want to point out that the Tigers are second with a 29 percent

36:12

point seven percent strikeout rate and an eight

36:14

point seven percent walk rate The

36:17

Tigers that includes Matt Manning got sent down. I

36:19

have I talked about this on the shares episode

36:21

yesterday I have too many shares of Matt Manning.

36:23

That's a little sad that for me. They got

36:25

sent out He's still gonna be worth a hundred

36:27

innings this year my drafting holds my keeper leagues

36:29

I'm not that sad about him. I'm gonna keep

36:31

him around But then you

36:33

said the Mariners that's not too surprising the Mets

36:36

who have been really trying to deploy turn their

36:38

player development around That's some Tyler

36:40

Maggiel But 27 percent strikeout

36:42

rate six point five percent walk rate from their

36:44

starters of spring not too bad

36:46

Not too shabby all those guys ahead of

36:48

the Dodgers. So Just

36:51

wanted to point out that there might be

36:53

some remnants or some Artifacts

36:55

of player development that show in this

36:58

because this is Irrespective of

37:01

the actual players. This is just a grouping

37:03

of the teams and their starters, right? And

37:05

so there's gonna be some rookies in here.

37:07

There's gonna be some six and seven starters

37:09

in here but it is

37:11

maybe a peek into The

37:14

teams that are good at developing pitchers, right? I mean, this

37:16

is what you want to do You want to have good

37:18

k-minus bb? And so

37:20

the Red Sox are on that list. They are on

37:22

my bowl predictions. We're true up right now We'll talk

37:24

a little bit more about those tomorrow though. Yeah,

37:27

we will save that Interesting to see

37:29

Nick Pavetta 22 to 4 k to bb Garrett

37:31

Whitlock 22 to 3 Cutter

37:33

Crawford 18 to 2 Cooper

37:35

Criswell, maybe a really really deep league

37:38

option 17 to 3 10 or hulk 16 to 3 yeah,

37:41

those are good performances kind of

37:43

across the board with a group of

37:46

pitchers that a lot of people are

37:48

skeptical of as the season approaches One

37:50

thing that happens with a change in regime

37:53

is not only people tend to think of

37:55

like pitch shape and And

37:58

sort of player development in this that in that

38:00

way. But you

38:02

can't forget about game day

38:04

prep and strategy.

38:08

For example, and this is from my bold predictions column,

38:10

but it's just a little bit so I feel like

38:12

I can show a little leg. Brian

38:15

Baio has thrown one

38:17

foreseen this spring. He

38:21

had a 607 slugging allowed

38:23

on the foreseen last year. That's right. We talked

38:25

about how ineffective that pitch was. So

38:29

sometimes it's just a fresh set

38:32

of eyes that say, hey, that

38:34

pitch gets back to, don't

38:37

throw it. Let's try

38:39

something else. So, you

38:42

know, and then there's some return to health, I think in

38:44

Whitlock and Hauck a little bit. And so, you

38:47

know, that's a rotation, but the Tigers and

38:49

the Tigers who were second

38:51

on that list and the Red Sox who were

38:53

10th both made my bold predictions

38:55

columns because they both seem to be

38:58

doing something right and pitching player development.

39:00

It's been turning

39:02

things around recently. You know, like I don't think

39:05

the Tigers at first, you know,

39:07

seem like maybe they're a mess there. But I

39:09

think Federer, their pitching coach there has been

39:12

really good and they seem to

39:14

have a good process now. Yeah. There were some

39:16

rumblings that Federer was a good long term fit.

39:18

Even the couple of seasons ago, but now they've

39:20

got more personnel. They have a few veterans, you

39:22

know, having a guy like Jack Flaherty, they

39:24

putting some things together this spring. He's

39:27

their leader in strikeouts, 26 to 4 K

39:29

to BB and 18 in the third inning

39:32

so far for Flaherty. If you weren't necessarily

39:34

a believer in November, are you a believer

39:36

now? Yeah, unless you move a guy like

39:38

based on his pitching coach, like you can

39:41

get into trouble that way, dude. Seriously. Well,

39:43

you're moving him based more on Vilo and

39:45

different characteristics of his pitches changing, right? Like

39:47

it's not just the, well, Chris Federer is

39:50

there. People do this with Ray Seeridge in

39:52

Pittsburgh. Oh, Ray Seeridge has it. Yeah. Okay.

39:54

Like the pitching whisperer is not

39:56

really a thing. It's what are they doing and

39:58

why does it work? Like ask more

40:01

questions like use use that

40:03

as a let's see is the game plan

40:05

different is something Is something

40:07

better in terms of elo something better in terms

40:09

of movement does this guy have a new

40:11

weapon that he's using against? Lefties or

40:14

whatever the previous flaw was has it

40:16

actually been corrected? It's not just Chris

40:18

Fetter I trust Jack Flaherty. It's Jack Flaherty

40:20

is doing these things and now I'm interested

40:23

in at least streaming him at home

40:25

Right because the park does give

40:27

you a really steady floor I

40:30

just moved him but due to

40:32

this conversation. I moved him above

40:34

the injured players Leared

40:37

the injury glob He's

40:39

yeah, and he's now

40:41

joined the converted reliever

40:43

blob So

40:46

he's he's up to around 81 now Why

40:49

Bob all it and my my

40:51

rankings 2.0 idea of at

40:53

a certain point on your rankings list It's more

40:55

just grouping like players together and saying what do

40:58

you need? Do you need to take a shot

41:00

at a converted reliever do you take a chance

41:02

at an old guy that has rebuilt this do

41:04

you? Have IELTS lots I mean that's something I

41:06

hope that people know when they look at my

41:08

and they look at my rankings I put all

41:10

the IELTS guys together in little groupings and if

41:12

you just want to move past motor past that

41:14

with your eyes and do it because I Can't

41:17

I have to try and rank for every team, you

41:19

know for every different setting and

41:22

so there are definitely places I

41:25

have unlimited IELTS and what I took Jacob de

41:27

Grom Justin Verlander Gavin Williams and Brian Woo all

41:29

in one draft last night Cuz I have a

41:31

bunch of IELTS lots and it's like it's

41:34

a keeper league Those are good pitchers and

41:36

I'll figure something else out in the short

41:38

term Yeah, I should have thought

41:40

more about that in mixed labor where we

41:42

had an early draft and you have an

41:44

IELTS spots like that You could take

41:46

a very injured pitching staff and then say well There's

41:48

gonna be a lot of time before the season starts

41:50

and I'm gonna spend a lot of my fab Replacing

41:52

these guys and I'm probably gonna find and all the

41:55

healing Guys like Luis heel and

41:57

all those guys you can be on board for those guys

41:59

because you'll have Lots other guys who have a

42:01

healthy rotation will be like what who am I

42:03

gonna drop to pick up loose heel? Like I

42:05

like my guys, you know, yeah That

42:07

was that's an interesting idea for early drafts with

42:09

unlimited IL think about loading up on injury Yeah

42:11

more than you ordinarily would maybe not building a

42:13

whole rotation out of it But at least just

42:15

saying hey, I'm gonna dedicate three is my squad.

42:18

I'm gonna take they are all injured pictures Yeah,

42:20

I have nine injured pictures. I'm gonna get everyone

42:22

from the waiver wire It's like well, you're gonna

42:24

spend every fab dollar you have by the end

42:26

of May if you do that So that's

42:29

my work the de grom I

42:34

hope for his sake you can come back healthy and Give

42:38

us three four five really good years and

42:40

just sort of erase the What

42:44

if you could wave a magic wand and make

42:46

a player healthy? He's the big number one answer

42:49

Yeah, he's from modern pitching. I think he would

42:51

be that guy Now

42:53

we get to the the real meat of

42:55

the rundown it's the 2024 all Oatmeal

42:59

team. This was a request that came in

43:01

from eater of cheeses on Twitter

43:04

When when we get an idea from

43:06

a person with a handle that's that

43:08

good. We have to run with it. That's the

43:10

rule All right And

43:13

the way we're gonna go with this I think is I'm

43:15

just gonna try and guess some and I'm just gonna run

43:17

through them real quick and you just tell me if

43:20

They made your team that you put together, right?

43:22

We'll kind of mush them together for the actual

43:24

final team So we'll start behind the plate. I

43:26

put one catcher on this team and the ground

43:28

rules are pretty simple So if you were kind

43:31

of playing along as you listen or watch Nobody

43:34

who has a top 180 P right now

43:36

can be on the all oatmeal team for

43:38

hitters We're looking for a thousand or more

43:41

career plate appearances if you're like at 945

43:43

or something That's fine.

43:45

It doesn't actually disqualify you but that's generally what

43:47

we're thinking about players that have been in the

43:49

league have had a couple of full seasons and

43:52

We're not looking at them and saying they could get

43:54

a lot better just because of skills growth if they

43:56

get better It's because of some sort

43:58

of later career adjustment Maybe moving to a

44:01

new park having new hitting coaches any of those things

44:03

are totally fine But we're not looking at you know

44:05

Kumbrian Hayes doesn't count as oatmeal just yet even

44:07

though he might qualify by plate appearances You kind

44:10

of have to take away the he could get

44:12

better sheen that a lot of young players have

44:16

Jonah Heim good choice. He

44:19

was a finalist for me. I think

44:21

we could probably debate this one I put Mitch Garver on

44:23

there and I think it's

44:25

because the difference for me between the two is

44:27

Mitch Garver is an absolute like what you see

44:30

is what you get a Lot of the value

44:32

for this year comes from not having to really

44:34

catch anymore The dumper is the main catcher in

44:36

Seattle Garver is basically the backup. He's a regular

44:38

DH His plate appearances could go

44:41

through the roof the park could be

44:43

a little bit of a challenge for him I

44:45

wonder with Jonah Heim if he's

44:47

actually got one more level

44:49

We saw a career best in homers

44:51

last year the lineup certainly

44:53

helped to counting stats were great But

44:56

man, I think that's a good selection. I

44:58

think no one's looking at Jonah Heim and

45:00

saying superstar So no one's

45:02

yeah, it's like the thing that no

45:04

one puts the sleeper tag on Yeah, no one's

45:06

like Jonah Heim's my sleeper this year Yeah, so

45:09

maybe we'll expand the roster at the end to

45:11

the rules are fluid for the all oatmeal team

45:13

Who'd you put it first base? first

45:17

day I'm

45:19

gonna go with Ryan

45:23

Mountcastle good choice. I like

45:25

that as a is what he

45:27

is kind of guy for sure I put Nathaniel low in

45:29

this spot. Oh, that was Right

45:32

next to each other Yeah,

45:34

the reason for me is I think with

45:36

Nathaniel low He's a little older

45:39

than some of the alternatives I considered I

45:41

gave an audible mention to Andrew Vaughn who

45:43

has been around a little longer than you

45:45

think and But we give up

45:48

on Nathaniel low like turning that pull power

45:50

on and you know and hitting 30 homers

45:52

or whatever That's yeah, it's like it's not

45:54

gonna happen and even though Vaughn's over 1600

45:58

plate appearances now over three big league seasons I

46:00

think he's a little bit more like the Cabrion

46:02

Hayes for me where I want

46:04

to give him one more year He could still pull it

46:08

Right on that borderline Also,

46:10

it's gonna be funny if anyone listening comes

46:12

back in discord and says yes I have

46:15

eight players from the all oatmeal name Which

46:18

could work at the deeper the league the

46:20

more likely it is that a large combination

46:23

of players like this end up being Good

46:25

players to have honorable mention to Justin Turner

46:28

There's a weird thing that happens with oatmeal

46:30

though when it's super old first of all,

46:32

it's not tasty but to the bowl yeah,

46:35

but They they

46:37

actually can become like not like sleepery,

46:39

but they can become like not

46:42

well priced, you know and You

46:46

know with I think with low and Mount Castle there

46:49

You know, they decently go where they're supposed to

46:51

go. It's just sort of filler for your draft

46:54

Turner might actually go too low Maybe

46:56

you know But

46:58

I think he fits the offensive though to

47:00

a certain extent Yeah he could actually be

47:02

a potential captain of a team like this

47:04

because you're looking at a Play that's

47:06

played more than you realize over the last three seasons is the

47:09

age 36 to 38 seasons here the

47:11

plate appearances 612 532 and 626

47:14

he's hit 276 or better in all

47:17

of those seasons had the one year where the playing

47:19

time went down with injury where he only had 13

47:21

homers but 23 and 27 homers in

47:23

two of those seasons, too I think

47:25

Justin Turner is a much better player

47:27

at this stage of his career than people

47:30

give him credit for so definitely Deserves

47:32

a mention here because he is very

47:34

undervalued. Who'd you put over at

47:36

second base? I

47:39

was gonna say could tell Marte but

47:41

he's a little bit too good Maybe

47:43

so I'm gonna go with Jorge Polanco.

47:45

Yes, we are in complete agreement on

47:47

Jorge Polanco. Why'd you put him there?

47:49

I Just

47:52

don't think that he's gonna hit more

47:54

homers or steal more bags necessarily He's

47:57

not going into a good park to say. Oh,

47:59

this is the year he put it all together.

48:01

He's got some injury concerns that have kept him

48:03

from playing full seasons. Um,

48:05

so he's not, he's not somebody you're going to grab

48:07

to help your homers, not somebody who could grab your,

48:10

to help your batting average or stolen bases. And

48:12

that's kind of the Oatmeal thing too, is like

48:14

a guy who will advance your team and

48:17

sort of, you know, not be

48:19

terrible anywhere, not have a zero.

48:22

Um, you know, I think this year he could

48:24

almost put up the, the, the average

48:26

line for in a, in a 15 team

48:29

or the average line you kind of want is I

48:31

think, uh, two 60

48:33

or, you know, two 55, uh, 23, 24, and

48:35

like six to eight stolen bases.

48:42

And that's like super

48:44

average. And I think that's kind of what Polanco is going

48:46

to do. Three consecutive seasons with

48:48

a double digit bail rate that power

48:50

that he's developed over the course of

48:52

his career looks very real. Love Jorge

48:54

Polanco, where he has been going. Who'd

48:57

you put it shortstop? Because there was

49:00

a name that I put on this team that made me

49:02

think of you immediately, and it almost made me think that

49:04

we would have an argument over if he qualifies

49:07

as Oatmeal or not. Oh,

49:10

well that is interesting. Um,

49:14

I think what's difficult about this position is,

49:16

um, that

49:18

if you're a young shortstop, I mean, even

49:21

sort of, and I'm being lowercase,

49:23

why here as in like, not

49:26

like 23 or something, like if you're just sort of 24 to

49:28

28 at shortstop, you're probably

49:31

a star, you know what I

49:33

mean? Like there, you

49:36

know, the top of the, I have

49:38

the leaderboard set. So it's 24 plus

49:40

and it's like Seager, Bachete, Lindor, Bogart,

49:43

Turner. Like I can't give any of

49:45

those guys, you know, uh, the Oatmeal

49:47

tag. So I wander

49:50

a little bit down the list, sort of

49:52

a WRC plus, and I focus on, uh,

49:55

two names, Dan's B Swanson is going

49:57

to be my name. I

49:59

just. He doesn't inspire

50:01

you know think pieces there's

50:03

not a lot of sleep with him on

50:06

it he might be too good for this.

50:09

I'm and maybe a little bit too young but

50:11

I think he's he's a guy that look

50:13

at there's a couple of names and wondering

50:15

if you're gonna say. So

50:18

I thought the ender boggart qualified as

50:20

the absolute best player that

50:22

we could put on the all oatmeal

50:24

team at this he's really pushing that

50:26

that he's pushing that upper end of

50:29

that quality no nobody else that I

50:31

put on. My entire team

50:33

is really pushing it felt like boggart was

50:35

so if you want to reject boggart. I'm

50:38

okay with that there might still be more there i gave him

50:41

the honor of being the captain of the all

50:43

oatmeal team so. I'm

50:46

sure he can be the best i mean my

50:48

answer i think too. Is

50:52

interesting what is that on my sleeve anyway. My

50:56

answer i think dancy swanson would be one of

50:58

the better ones on the yeah swanson carries a

51:00

slightly higher adp than most of these players as

51:02

well i will you don't miss i guess could

51:04

also that's the other name i was

51:06

gonna say maybe maybe it's actually willy maybe that's

51:08

the true selection left to hash that one out

51:11

about willy that's a little bit different from the

51:13

rest of these guys though. Is a

51:17

probable batting average flaw yeah so

51:20

he almost belongs in a bucket

51:22

of players that like flawed

51:24

pieces that can fit the right puzzle. Right

51:27

you know i mean i'm not sure that's

51:29

quite oatmeal you hainio soirees maybe like just

51:32

past the oatmeal barrier on the wrong side

51:34

kind of similar over at third base and

51:36

he didn't make the oatmeal team for me.

51:38

Ryan mcman actually inspired this question and i

51:40

think ryan mcman is a perfect answer because

51:43

not only can you play him at third

51:45

you can move over to second. I

51:48

don't think he's going to get any better at

51:50

this stage of his career i don't think he

51:52

has any threats to his playing time i think

51:54

his skills are pretty solid across the board he's

51:56

got the non zero speed three straight seasons with

51:58

20 homers. The batting

52:00

average could go up a little bit if the

52:02

KRA comes back down to pre-2023 levels. So

52:06

I think what you see is what you get and what you get is not as

52:08

bad as people make it out to be. I

52:11

only have one retort. Oh. Jamer

52:15

Candelario. Oh yeah. I

52:18

don't know, like he just seems to be pretty

52:20

perfect to me. He just, yeah.

52:23

He's okay. He's

52:25

like, if you put forth

52:27

like a rate my draft

52:30

and you literally had the all oatmeal team

52:32

on your draft, you

52:34

get no fire emoticons. That's true.

52:36

That's really true. I think I left UT open.

52:38

I thought about Jamer, so I think Jamer is

52:41

going to slot in as a UT. I

52:43

think we got to find room for both Jamer

52:45

and Ryan McMahon. It's nice to have a couple

52:47

of multi-eligible position players on an oatmeal team especially.

52:50

In the outfield, I have a player

52:52

that might push that Xander Bogart's line.

52:55

I just think that Chasm McCormick is being treated

52:58

like oatmeal. So

53:01

therefore, I

53:03

do think he's on the upper end. He had

53:05

a 133 WRC plus last year, but

53:07

his old manager didn't want to play him every day,

53:09

so he didn't have those played appearance totals. So

53:12

you're left wondering what his new manager will do

53:15

and so on and so forth. He's

53:19

better than oatmeal himself, but he

53:22

seems somewhat to be treated like oatmeal.

53:24

I'm going to throw Max Kepler on

53:26

as a very obvious oatmeal. I

53:29

think he's almost closer

53:31

to the embodiment of oatmeal. I

53:33

don't know if I have a third yet, so I'll

53:36

let you reveal some while I look. Oatmeal

53:38

Hall of Fame candidate, I think, would be

53:40

Max Kepler. Max Kepler?

53:43

Yeah. Oh, here was my

53:45

last one. He's so oatmeal that

53:47

he might be a bad pick. This is one

53:49

of the few on our list

53:52

that I'm not sure. Austin

53:54

Hayes. Oh, yeah. Because

53:56

it's so boring. His

53:59

own team is the same. the Colton-Cowsers

54:01

more exciting. Austin Hayes may

54:03

lose time to Colton-Cowsers this year, and

54:06

yet he had a 112 WRC plus last

54:08

year and was an above average Maysley player.

54:10

But he is pretty boring and he's not

54:12

going to advance you in any of the

54:14

certain stats other than maybe his batting average

54:16

is pretty good. But it's not,

54:18

nothing's great, you know. And so Austin

54:20

Hayes is on my oatmeal team. So

54:22

my trio starts with probably the

54:24

second best player I put on the roster, Ian

54:27

Hap. I think he's in the oatmeal phase

54:29

of his career. I never feel bad about drafting him

54:31

where he goes. I think he fits a lot of

54:33

builds. Pretty much a good

54:35

player in every category. Taylor

54:38

Ward and Alex Verdugo are going to

54:40

do. Oh, Taylor Ward is inspired. Oh

54:44

my god, Taylor Ward. So perfect.

54:46

Taylor Ward and Max Koeffler,

54:48

dude. Oatmeal co-captains. Yeah,

54:50

I think they fit really well.

54:53

So you put five on there, we've easily

54:55

got enough room for everybody. But Hap Ward

54:57

and Verdugo were my selections. And Verdugo, just

55:00

like Jamer, has the, hey, the park could

55:02

actually make them play up a little bit

55:04

and you're getting a nice floor anyway. But

55:07

same guy doing similar things he's done in the

55:09

past might actually get a better result.

55:11

I don't know, 27 I just, and

55:15

this new park, I was just wondering. But you

55:18

know, you're right. He's treated like it. 1,600 plate appearances. Twice

55:22

traded, right? Yeah. I think that's

55:24

more of the team, even teams are kind of

55:26

more like, yeah, right. What you see is what

55:28

you get. Rotation. I

55:30

picked four starters, one

55:33

reliever. I think we're going to

55:35

have more overlap on this group. So

55:38

who is the ace of the

55:40

all oatmeal team in 2024? Chris

55:43

Bassett. Yes, it's definitely Chris Bassett. I

55:48

love the high two seamer so much. Like

55:50

I think about that pitch all the time

55:53

now. Ever since we did that breakdown. Oh,

55:55

my 11th bold prediction, which didn't make the

55:57

list, was John Johnny

56:00

Brito out earns the

56:02

entire Washington National starting rotation. And

56:06

part of it was Johnny Brito is a high sinker guy. Ooh.

56:09

So. Okay. It's

56:12

just a random interjection. From the cutting board.

56:14

Meryl Kelly? Yes, Meryl Kelly was the number

56:16

two starter I put on the all-over-the-op. Nice.

56:19

We are two for two in lockstep. All right. I'm

56:22

sure I'll mess this up now. Mm-hmm.

56:25

I don't... Like, do you have any hurt guys,

56:27

currently hurt guys on this thing? No currently hurt

56:29

guys, and I'll give you a hint for number

56:31

three he's been previously brought up on this episode.

56:34

On this episode? Oh, yeah. Jordan

56:36

Montgomery. Montgomery. Yeah. Yeah,

56:39

I got that. Because these three guys were lumped together

56:41

in ADP earlier in draft season, and it was like, damn, they're all

56:43

kind of the same, and if you get one, great. Don't take all

56:45

of them maybe on the same team unless it's

56:47

a super deep league, but I

56:50

can't really make an argument against any of them. Did

56:52

you only do three? No, I got one more. He

56:54

goes a little later, but not a lot later. I

56:56

think he's similar to those

56:59

guys. He's also on a good team. One

57:01

of the traits of an all- I'm going Marcus Strowman. Totally

57:04

fine. I 100% agree. I put

57:06

his teammate, but Nester Cortez on there. Oh,

57:09

I almost said Nester Cortez. He always went four for

57:11

four. We're close. Yeah,

57:13

Marcus Strowman. We've spent... Here, I'll

57:15

expand it to five. There are no rules here. It's our team.

57:17

We can do whatever we want with it. So, yeah. Oh,

57:20

but do you have closers? Because that's hard. I

57:22

do have one closer on there. And actually, you

57:24

know what? Marcus Strowman... I

57:26

think Marcus Strowman's oatmeal. I think Marcus Strowman has a

57:28

lot of personality, and I think that can just

57:31

push you right off. Oh, that hurts your-

57:33

Other guys here don't. Other players on this

57:35

team do have some personality, but maybe that

57:37

was part of- He has outsized personality. Yeah.

57:41

Yeah. Like, one closer. Yeah, close. I

57:43

guess Ricella Glasius? If

57:46

you allow a closer to be anywhere in the

57:48

pool, I would agree. I would say Ricella Glasius

57:50

is the oatmeal closer because these- Do you think

57:52

he gets drafted too high? Capital C closer. I'd

57:54

like him a little more than you do. I

57:56

did find one outside the top 100 who I

57:59

think is still better. than people give him credit for

58:01

and because of untimely

58:03

meltdowns he is frequently

58:06

getting the back

58:09

guy like that pinch your

58:11

nose. Craig Holmes? No.

58:13

Kenley Jansen? Getting closer. Craig

58:16

Kimbrel? Craig Kimbrel. I think Craig Kimbrel is your

58:19

OBL closer because he's on a good team. That's

58:21

so weird because he's like could

58:23

be headed to the Hall of Fame. Yeah, I mean I think

58:25

that this is what happens to you as a reliever when you

58:27

get this. Not far off the Hall of Fame trajectory. You get

58:29

this old but I mean last year 326 ERA 104 whip 94Ks

58:31

and 69 innings like that's good

58:36

and he goes late enough where when

58:38

you see all the closer inflation that

58:41

happens late in draft season in part because of all

58:43

the injuries we've had this year it

58:45

seems like Kimbrel doesn't get caught up in

58:47

that as much as other more

58:50

interesting players do. So

58:52

I think he's the closer on the all-oatmeal team. I think

58:54

you can still get 25 saves out of Craig Kimbrel at

58:56

a very reasonable price. Yeah,

58:58

yeah, I just you know he doesn't have

59:01

that good natural command so like I always

59:03

wonder this in his worst years where he's

59:05

lost it you know he's

59:07

he's lost the role due to command

59:11

but he seems to have arrived at that ship

59:13

to some extent but it always feels

59:15

a little bit and then he used to be blowing 98s 99s and

59:17

100s and now he's more 96

59:20

to 97 so always

59:23

something to consider but that makes him more and more of

59:25

an oatmeal. You know I mean it's that's why I think

59:28

it's so hard to be oatmeal in in

59:31

the closer role because it's where you

59:33

put the young fire balling dude who

59:35

just has a hundred mile an hour

59:38

fastball. You know it's like it's

59:40

not a good place for oatmeal maybe Tanner

59:42

Scott you know is kind of way too

59:44

hard to be oatmeal. Yeah,

59:47

but the command is so bad I don't

59:49

know yeah it's really I think it's hard

59:51

to be oatmeal here. I

59:53

think I think it's definitely very hard to be oatmeal

59:55

and be a closer but oatmeal is a good thing.

59:58

I hope you understand lips. Phillips

1:00:00

until that late surge probably could have had

1:00:02

a case. Now these last few

1:00:04

drafts, he's jumped up. But

1:00:07

he was sick because he doesn't have the elite-elite

1:00:09

K rate, even though he gets great ratios.

1:00:12

He gets the job done. He doesn't seem to have

1:00:14

as many threats to that role as you'd expect him

1:00:17

to, especially given the quality of that

1:00:19

Dodgers bullpen. Oatmeal. It's a

1:00:21

term of endearment around here. Just like clown is a

1:00:23

term of endearment in my family. It really is. It's

1:00:27

a bit of an outlier. I wouldn't just

1:00:29

call someone I don't know a clown, but

1:00:31

I will call my siblings clowns frequently. Yeah.

1:00:36

And oatmeal is a staple

1:00:38

of our diet in the Sarasota. Yeah.

1:00:41

It's delicious. It's good for us. We need to

1:00:43

go. On tomorrow's show, we're going

1:00:45

to dig into Eno's main event team. Take a

1:00:47

look at some of the main event trends, how

1:00:49

rosters are built differently, and kind of figure out

1:00:51

if there's any takeaways for other leagues. The

1:00:54

highest stakes big league that's out there,

1:00:56

other leagues that are more expensive than

1:00:58

somebody playing. Look at some bold predictions

1:01:00

and make some bold predictions of our

1:01:02

own based off of some of those trends maybe. Yeah.

1:01:05

Just try to figure out a lot of these teams get built differently.

1:01:07

We'll have some bold predictions on Thursday. We'll have some normal

1:01:10

predictions on Friday with Trevor, 1 o'clock Eastern

1:01:12

on YouTube for that live stream. So be

1:01:14

sure to check that out. If you don't

1:01:16

have a subscription to The Athletic, get one

1:01:19

at theathletic.com/rates and barrels. That is

1:01:21

going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. I'm

1:01:23

back with you on Thursday. Thanks for

1:01:25

listening.