0:01

Welcome

0:07

to Rates and Barrels. It is

0:09

Tuesday, March 26. Derek

0:11

Van Ryper, Eno Saris, we are

0:20

back in our respective home recording locations.

0:22

Feels good to have gotten out and

0:24

get those two live shows in. Thanks

0:26

again to our friends at Other Half

0:29

Brewing for being fantastic hosts. And thanks

0:31

to everybody who made it out live.

0:33

It was great to put some faces

0:35

to Twitter handles and

0:37

more specifically, Discord handles, right? I

0:39

got to meet Market8 dude, whose

0:41

name is not actually Mark. Yeah,

0:46

that was fun. Some of

0:49

our most ardent listeners and

0:51

people we interact with the most on Twitter

0:53

and Discord were there. So it was really

0:56

great to see everybody. It was really fun.

0:58

Other Half did such a great job.

1:00

It was a perfect little spot for

1:02

us. And Stacked Lineup is still

1:05

out there. So if you want to order it

1:07

at otherhalfbrewing.com, you can

1:10

still get that shipped to a bunch of different states. So

1:12

it was really great beer, really

1:14

great time, really great to see everybody. Yeah,

1:16

I kind of locked in on Stacked Lineup.

1:18

I didn't try enough of the other

1:20

beers at Other Half. That was a bit

1:22

of a mistake on my part, but we'll

1:25

be corrected in a future opportunity traveling to

1:27

New York. As I mentioned, the Discord, it

1:29

is popping. Get in there. If you haven't

1:32

already, we'll have a link to join that

1:34

in the show description. Since

1:37

we last recorded on Thursday, a ton

1:39

of news has broken. And one story

1:41

that was pretty fresh last Thursday has

1:43

developed a good bit. And I would

1:45

say it's still in the developing

1:48

category. That, of course, is Shohei

1:51

Otani and Ipe Mizuhara, his former

1:53

translator who has now been fired

1:55

by the Dodgers after being linked

1:58

to illegal gambling in California. Shouhei

2:01

met with the media on Monday

2:03

afternoon, you know, and he said

2:05

he was saddened and shocked by

2:07

the revelations that his former interpreter

2:09

had racked up a sizable gambling

2:11

debt. Reports have that as

2:13

about four and a half million dollars. That's still

2:15

the number that's floating around out there. And

2:19

Otani said he learned about this problem

2:23

for Mizuhara after the first game

2:25

the Dodgers played with the Padres

2:27

in Korea last week. So this

2:30

is really interesting. It's originally kind of

2:32

bubbled up from a Los Angeles Times

2:34

report that pointed out that Otani's name

2:36

had appeared on wire transfers to alleged

2:39

bookmaker Matthew Boyer. Boyer is under federal

2:41

investigation. And then Mizuhara

2:43

had claimed the transfers covered his

2:45

debts. Major League Baseball on Friday

2:48

after a few days announced they're

2:50

investigating. So we'll see what they

2:52

find beyond whatever the federal

2:54

investigation turns up. And

2:56

the biggest thing for me is that kind of like read

2:58

through some of the details that have been reported. It's

3:01

just that there were there were some inconsistencies

3:03

in the stories. Initially

3:05

there was a 90 minute interview that ESPN

3:07

had with Mizuhara and

3:10

that interview was attended by an Otani

3:12

spokesperson. Right. So that detailed

3:14

how Mizuhara met Boyer at a poker game in

3:16

San Diego back in 2021. Apparently

3:20

Boyer was invited to this game by an

3:22

acquaintance of David Fletcher's. The

3:24

details are like super clear in

3:26

that interview. And then

3:28

of course the details from that interview

3:31

were later recanted. And some of this

3:33

is being now kind of attributed to

3:36

throughout this last week. Prior

3:38

to being fired Mizuhara still being Otani's

3:40

translator and that creating a lot of

3:43

confusion about what Otani did and did

3:45

not know at various points. Yeah

3:48

the interaction between

3:50

a player and a translator

3:52

is just really intimate.

3:57

Actually I mean this person is. broadcasting

4:00

your views to the world for you, you know,

4:02

and translating the world

4:04

for you, you know, on the way back. And

4:07

then we know, we have established

4:10

that their interaction

4:12

was even more intimate maybe than normal translators,

4:14

like just in terms of like, you know,

4:17

they were friends, they were buds, they went

4:19

everywhere together, like, you know, they were seeing

4:21

everywhere together, like, you know, you

4:23

know, so, you know, does

4:26

he have access to his accounts? You

4:29

know, this translation thing is kind

4:31

of intriguing to the point

4:34

where yesterday, you know, I

4:36

have a friend who's more of a

4:38

native Japanese speaker or better Japanese speaker

4:40

than I am. And

4:42

he watched that same press

4:45

conference yesterday that Otani

4:47

gave in which he ostensibly

4:50

gave us more details. And

4:54

but it was a prepared statement. But

4:56

again, there's a translator there, the new translator.

5:00

And he's, he's, my

5:02

friend said he did a good job. But he said that

5:04

one specific thing, there was an interesting way

5:07

of translating. So my

5:10

friend said that sort of Otani

5:12

says specifically, he pay

5:15

access my account on his own and

5:17

transferred money out in Japanese. And

5:21

that was translated to if they stole my money

5:23

or stole money. So

5:27

that's that's it's that's just

5:30

part of the story with it like that,

5:32

like, now when did Otani know what he

5:34

knew? How much English does he

5:36

understand? How much does he how much do you

5:38

understand about this? Like

5:41

you could see a play away a story

5:43

of this guy who's just wants to be

5:45

about he's from the country in Japan, he

5:47

just wants to be about baseball, his mom,

5:50

you know, handled his finances and first until

5:52

just a couple years ago, you know, all

5:54

he wants to do is carry

5:56

out baseball, maybe like

5:59

who knows how much how good his

6:01

English is and how much he's understanding of

6:03

this and he's got this guy who's an

6:05

established liar or who is who's at least

6:07

admitted to lying on certain levels and has

6:10

a gambling problem who's his translator so He

6:13

could say anything that other people were

6:15

saying to Otani and then change whatever

6:17

his honey thing back, right? So oh,

6:20

yeah, Otani covered my debts. He

6:23

wasn't happy with it, but he did

6:25

it, you know Whereas Otani thinks he's

6:27

saying oh, yes, I paid for something

6:29

that That he had that

6:31

he bought in my house or whatever It was you know, I

6:33

mean like like maybe he knew

6:35

about the payments but didn't know exactly

6:37

what they're for I mean just because

6:39

that translating offers this like gray area.

6:41

We just don't know There's

6:44

another story where you know Otani's in the

6:46

veteran gambler and he's he cannot

6:48

lose He's one of these the players I think

6:50

the one thing that I know about players is

6:53

they hate losing one. They almost like winning and

6:56

you know, they are competitive

6:58

about tiddlywinks and Ask as well Walker

7:00

Bueller in ping-pong, you know what I

7:02

mean? Like it's it's it's They're

7:06

intensely competitive. So the other story is,

7:08

you know, here's a guy who's intensely

7:10

competitive and private

7:13

and has some time to

7:15

kill when he's not doing baseball things and

7:18

you know was gambling and you

7:21

know got into trouble and blamed on us

7:23

on his translator, so That

7:26

the thing is that this is all put against a

7:29

player who's probably the most inaccessible player

7:31

we've had in a long time and so,

7:35

you know, I feel badly for all

7:37

the reporters trying to chase this because It's

7:40

it's there's there's very

7:42

few in ways with the player himself

7:45

because of maybe the language again and

7:47

translating But also just the

7:49

way that he's insulated himself from the media and

7:51

then so you're trying to go to all these

7:53

people around him Who were saying I I

7:55

thought he was a good guy. I don't know so

8:00

It's a really difficult story for

8:02

everybody involved and we on

8:04

the outside here And it

8:06

like it inspires a lot of people to

8:11

Be very sure of their beliefs

8:13

in a lot of these instances Oh bookie

8:16

would never put out a 4.5 million dollar

8:19

credit line that seems like a lot But

8:21

it wasn't 4.5 million. It was 500,000

8:23

over and over again, or at least

8:25

that's how the payments came in, you know Would

8:28

he ever do that for someone who obviously

8:30

wasn't worth it? I don't know I mean you're

8:33

you're asking you're talking about an illegal bookie.

8:35

Well, and that's where the initial the

8:37

initial account from Mizuhara and explaining how

8:40

he met Boyer like kind of Oh,

8:42

okay Like you you got introduced to

8:44

each other because of who you each

8:47

know Yeah, these are probably a

8:49

mark for him right away that guy that

8:51

guy smelled you coming a lot of mile

8:53

away Right. So there

8:56

it's just one of these stories like there's there's the first

8:58

thing you think is like, what do you want

9:00

to believe? Well, we all probably many of us want

9:02

to believe that Shoyo Tani is

9:04

an amazing baseball player who loves baseball and would

9:06

never be involved in anything illegal like this That's

9:09

like the thing you kind of want to believe

9:11

that's like a fairy tale that you want to

9:13

tell yourself That's what you sort of hope comes

9:16

out in all of the investigation

9:18

in all of this that's the thing that you generally want

9:21

to see but You

9:23

also have probably lived long enough to

9:25

see and hear of enough famous people

9:27

being Involved in bad

9:29

things to think you know, maybe it's

9:31

not just e-pay like you your mind

9:33

wonders like isn't doesn't Michael Jordan just

9:35

like a Roll like

9:38

Charles Barkley didn't charge the box. I like

9:40

to lose millions of dollars, right? But also

9:42

there's aside from just the the legal ramifications

9:44

of well gambling is not legal in the

9:46

state of California Okay, like if that were

9:49

a thing that any player did I'm not

9:51

talking about Shohei specifically But let's just say

9:53

an athlete of any kind any sport wherever

9:56

they bet on sports in California and it's

9:58

a lot of money and It's

10:00

illegal. Okay, like am I crushed

10:03

by that as a fan? No, I

10:05

don't actually care if the

10:07

player Is not harming other

10:09

people, right? It's a little bit like smoking pot

10:11

smoking pot the leak is legal in some cities in

10:13

stem sites and not legal in others It's like

10:15

if somebody got busted in one of the states where

10:17

it wasn't legally be like, well, you know Maybe

10:20

thought he was in California. He woke up and whatever

10:23

it is I don't know doesn't it doesn't seem

10:25

like that big a deal with gambling. He's a

10:27

little bit a little bit different because What

10:30

about baseball? Right and that's

10:32

where that's where it would cross a line,

10:35

right? And again, like that's By

10:37

all accounts not what's happening here, but yeah

10:39

leverage over a player, you know

10:42

That owns owes five million dollars. Well, you better do this

10:44

or you got to do something for me on the field

10:46

that I can Bet on or whatever. Right?

10:49

So there's infinite and we have something

10:51

like this another sport, right? Right. Meanwhile,

10:53

yeah Yeah in

10:55

the NBA John Tae Porter is

10:57

being investigated because of prop

10:59

bets and prop bets for the uninitiated or

11:02

just like I think this guy

11:04

will rebound have seven rebounds today and a

11:07

bunch of Regular bets were placed

11:09

on the under on his props when he

11:11

was in a game in which he removed

11:13

himself from the game

11:16

due to injury Which

11:19

is superficial and then I guess he has all

11:21

these alternate You

11:23

know Twitter accounts there's some reporting his alternate

11:26

Twitter accounts are related to crypto and gambling

11:29

and that he has publicly admitted

11:31

to gambling in those Twitter

11:33

accounts on NCAA basketball and

11:36

so, you know Like

11:38

there's a lot I think there's a there's

11:40

more smoke there and that's a

11:42

big deal because it's about the sport itself whereas

11:46

we can't necessarily trust he pay but he pays

11:48

always said no baseball and You

11:52

know, we also have this like this this

11:54

illegal bookie person the whole reason this came

11:57

out is because this illegal

11:59

bookie person And he's busted.

12:03

And so it reads to me like, oh well,

12:07

do you know Shohei Otani?

12:09

Is that a good name? Does that

12:12

give me a reduction in sentence

12:14

or anything? Does that give me anywhere? So

12:17

you don't like, it's really hard with all

12:20

these characters in there. And

12:22

again, we don't really know Shohei that well.

12:25

Right. But it's, again, still in the developing

12:27

category for me for sure. And I just try to

12:30

think through all these different details. And the thing I

12:32

put out there on Twitter was just like, how

12:34

do you even get four and a half

12:36

million dollars out of a bank account without

12:39

someone knowing about it? That would be challenging

12:41

because it would take several large transfers. Five

12:43

hundred thousand at a time. It's

12:45

something like that. But I just think about how

12:48

there's so many facets of life where there

12:50

are little checks on basic things we do.

12:52

And I realize that ultra

12:54

high net worth individuals live in a different

12:56

world than the rest of us and maybe

12:59

you can transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars

13:01

out of an account and not get a

13:03

notification or someone who has access to your

13:05

account can do that. I just think that's

13:07

really bizarre. That's all. I'm not really pointing

13:10

a finger or anything. I'm just like, man,

13:12

that's weird. And that's maybe... Yeah. Maybe

13:15

Otani is a classic example of someone that

13:17

trusted the wrong people. That's possible. I don't

13:19

know. I just think there's missing

13:21

information. I do know a fair amount

13:23

of people that have gotten rich not

13:26

by handling the money themselves. Who

13:30

inherited it or did

13:33

other things to acquire that wealth.

13:36

And I do know personally some people that just have

13:39

other people that dispersed the money from them.

13:43

They don't want to deal with it. That's

13:46

not why they have money and they

13:49

don't want to think about it. So that's

13:52

why I mentioned on Twitter the other day that

13:54

his mother handled his finances and maybe that's

13:57

not something he wants to think about. But

13:59

then other people are all over the place. Well, professional advisors and

14:01

people, yes, yes, but it's also possible

14:04

that someone that's as close as your translator

14:07

Can tell you that this is just a payment

14:09

for the thing you owe, you know, whatever it

14:11

is Just sign on this,

14:13

you know and

14:16

Don't worry about it. All right. So

14:18

for all of those reasons and many

14:20

that we haven't even uncovered yet This

14:23

is a complicated story to

14:25

completely unpack As far

14:27

as other news and notes the thing that you'd

14:29

thought we might be talking about right now as

14:31

it pertains to show Hey Otani is that he's

14:33

been cleared to start a throwing program as he

14:35

returns from elbow surgery in his bid to be

14:37

a two-way player Again, right like if you if

14:40

three weeks ago you said what do you think

14:42

we talked about with Otani in the days before?

14:44

State side opening day and say I don't

14:46

know rehab, you know, how his spring went

14:48

normal things like that So

14:50

good news there at least that Otani is

14:53

on that sort of progression You know, we'll

14:55

see if they actually Follow

14:57

through on their rumblings that they might

14:59

play him in the field by the end of the

15:01

season That would be a little bit of a surprise,

15:03

but it's an option to them eventually if he gets

15:05

to the rehab Unscathed but that's

15:07

the that's the baseball side of what's

15:09

happening with show Hey Otani right now

15:12

and it feels like a footnote given

15:14

how large the scope of everything else

15:16

is right now Ever

15:18

tried to break a bad habit

15:20

and felt like you're climbing Everest

15:22

and flip-flops. Yeah, we've been there,

15:24

too But here's a breath of

15:26

fresh air fume. It's not about

15:28

giving up It's about switching up

15:30

fume takes your habit and simply

15:32

makes it better Healthier and a

15:34

whole lot more enjoyable fume is

15:37

an innovative award-winning flavored air device

15:39

that does just that instead of

15:41

vapor Fume uses flavored air instead

15:43

of electronics fume is completely natural

15:45

and instead of harmful chemicals fume

15:47

uses delicious Flavors you get it

15:49

instead of bad fume is good It's

15:51

a habit you're free to enjoy and

15:53

makes replacing your bad habit easy your

15:55

fume comes with an adjustable airflow dial

15:57

It is designed with movable parts magnets

16:00

for fidgeting giving your fingers a lot

16:02

to do which is helpful for de-stressing

16:04

and anxiety while breaking your habit. For

16:07

me Fume's ability to also act as

16:09

a fidget device is incredible and helps

16:11

me get through the day stress free.

16:13

Plus Fumes just released a magnetic stand

16:15

for your Fume so there's no more

16:18

losing it around the house that's built

16:20

with fidgeting in mind. You can spin

16:22

your Fume around on it. Start the

16:24

year off right with the good habit

16:26

by going to trifume.com/barrels and getting the

16:29

journey packed today. Fume is giving listeners of

16:31

the show 10% off

16:33

when they use the code barrels to

16:35

help make starting the good habit that

16:37

much easier. Beyond

16:40

Otani we have an extension

16:42

for Ezekiel Tovar a

16:45

seven-year extension with the

16:47

Rockies 63 and a half

16:49

million plus an option for 2031. Yes

16:51

it's a real year at twenty and

16:53

a half million dollars. We've talked about

16:56

Tovar a few times

16:58

on this show as one of

17:00

the more aggressive hitters in terms

17:02

of approach in the league and

17:04

the overall results in his first full

17:07

season with the Rockies last year were

17:10

underwhelming at the play to 27% k-rate with a

17:12

4.1% walk rate. It was a 70 WRC plus

17:14

but we're talking about

17:18

a player who was a rookie and he

17:20

turned 22 in August so he was very

17:23

young to be there played great defense at

17:25

shortstop was a gold glove finalist at shortstop

17:27

so you can start to piece together like

17:30

a hey like what's the floor for Ezekiel

17:32

Tovar and say good defender

17:34

at short guy that might

17:36

actually you know over time strike

17:39

out a little bit less and be able

17:41

to take his hit tool and continue to

17:44

progress in a kind of gradual way at

17:46

the plate. My question for you is

17:48

as much as his approach would

17:50

scare us if it were for a 28,

17:54

29, 30 year old player like a Javier Baez

17:56

like at the end of the the

17:59

aging curve like Drops off really

18:01

sharply for players that have an approach

18:03

like Tovar's Do we ever

18:05

see positive outcomes in terms

18:07

of making significant adjustments? But we're talking

18:09

about someone who's so much younger for

18:12

the level than a lot of other

18:14

players that debut Yeah,

18:18

and you know, there are different

18:21

ways to sort

18:23

of Get out of

18:25

this law of not having great play discipline or

18:27

not having a great eye, right and This

18:30

is something I realized even with Josh Hamilton

18:32

at the time Who

18:34

has this same sort of sort of chasing? Mentality

18:39

very aggressive mentality is

18:41

that it you if you if

18:44

you? Like

18:46

contact rates are such that they're

18:48

almost always above 30%

18:51

right so

18:53

like You you

18:56

could just keep swinging you could you

18:58

basically make contact before you strike out?

19:02

and it seems like Tovar has

19:04

become even more aggressive this spring this

19:07

spring he has a 16%

19:09

a swing strike rate, which is again, just like

19:11

we've had before but somehow he only has a

19:13

22% Strike

19:15

I rate this spring and I think that's I think

19:17

he's just gonna try and be so aggressive early

19:20

in the counts and just not get to those

19:22

two strike counts and Just

19:24

try to use You

19:27

know hit tool we think of somebody that has a

19:29

16% switch swing strike rate is not having a great

19:31

hit tool But I don't know if

19:33

that's a hundred percent correct. That's swinging

19:36

miss it's

19:38

not necessarily that means he has a poor hit

19:40

tool and I think

19:44

the hit tool is the hardest thing to define so He

19:48

is definitely one of those guys that I

19:50

have very few shares of and Did

19:53

not want anywhere. I might

19:56

have one or two because you at some point you

19:58

have to just Take a guy

20:01

that might that project produce that's project value,

20:04

right? Now

20:06

I'm gonna be wrong on I think you

20:09

know, like he's that the park

20:11

is gonna be good for him and Yeah,

20:14

it's gonna be I think it's gonna be bias like and It's

20:17

gonna be really good for like four or five

20:19

years I could see that happening and then having

20:22

a sharp drop off after that So I don't

20:24

the extension thing they probably got him for

20:26

his best years. So it's it's okay But

20:30

you know his second contract is not one

20:32

I would hand out probably Right

20:34

like trying to project Where he

20:36

is today and where he'll be at the end

20:38

of this contract if you kind of put him

20:40

in the have your bias Plate discipline bucket and

20:43

say also there's less raw power and then when

20:45

you sign him if you're not

20:47

the Rockies You don't have the benefit of Coors

20:49

Field like all of those factors will be taken

20:51

into account I kind of

20:53

like Tovar where he goes in redraft though Just

20:56

because a lot of players in this

20:58

range kind of in that pick 200 overall range

21:01

are either part-time players or they have a realistic

21:04

chance of losing a share of playing time

21:06

Tovar is not gonna lose playing time

21:08

this extension just further cements that right?

21:11

So you're going to get good counting

21:13

stats because of the volume you have

21:15

power already even if you develop a lot

21:17

more 1518 home runs seen

21:19

within reach I'm just curious if he could

21:21

steal more bases some of that's getting on base more 287

21:23

OVP Doesn't exactly give

21:25

you a ton of opportunities next this spring.

21:27

Yeah, right So if you can nudge

21:29

up that OVP, maybe you can get the stolen bases to

21:32

tick up a little bit I mean, he's not a burner,

21:34

but he's not a bad runner either 69 percentile

21:36

and sprint speed So you'd think there's a

21:38

little more speed there if he's able to

21:40

create those opportunities Yeah,

21:43

and I wonder what the

21:47

Spring Leaders are like I

21:49

can't I can't get a team leader

21:51

board But I can look

21:53

at the Rockies in terms of how

21:55

many stolen bases and You

21:59

know Never before you release had

22:01

four Doyle has three Bouchard has two.

22:04

They don't seem like they're going to run crazy This

22:06

is not like the Nationals leaderboard Right

22:10

angels running a lot more this spring to

22:12

us a tweet from Scott to a pitcher

22:14

list pointing out they had become one of

22:16

the more aggressive teams this spring and oh

22:19

We look at that Jill Adele has

22:21

six Maris Nick five netto four Moniac

22:23

Hicks Soto three Yeah,

22:26

we talked about netto at some

22:28

point probably on the shortstop preview Maybe on the Angels

22:30

team preview a little bit as well. He's one of

22:32

those guys where the Projection

22:35

is just so modest, but you

22:37

could talk yourself into him being

22:39

a major exceed He kind

22:41

of goes in that same range as Tovar and I

22:43

feel similarly about netto and that's what I rather have

22:45

I mean, yeah, yeah, if I could have one of

22:47

the other I'll take the guy who whips less, you

22:50

know Has a better max

22:52

TV better Braille, right? You know, maybe

22:54

better legs so I

22:56

think it's like this little danger zone at

22:58

that position where Jeremy Pania

23:00

probably is the safest Ezekiel

23:02

Tovar might be the most Highly

23:06

most variable and then Zach Netto is sort

23:08

of like well if you want the younger

23:10

player that could get a lot better You

23:12

know who doesn't have pain is Multiple

23:15

years in the big leagues yet, but you

23:17

don't want the risk air quotes with Tovar

23:19

The netto kind of ticks both boxes and

23:21

splits the difference. No, yeah If you ranked

23:23

up on floor and ceiling, you know, you'd

23:26

have pain at the

23:28

top of floor and bottom of ceiling 100%

23:30

yeah But

23:33

I look at that entire group like I could do okay

23:35

with any one of those three guys as my middle infielder

23:38

a little peak ahead I have four

23:40

shares of Jeremy Pania and And

23:44

you know, we're gonna do some our guys

23:46

at the end here the

23:49

reasoning for me is a Lot

23:51

of those are in keeper leagues and it's

23:54

really kind of hard especially deeper keeper leagues

23:56

to acquire a Shortstop.

24:00

Like. A young shortstop. It's just like you

24:02

know, our shorts up before. During thing

24:04

in one leg was Jp Crawford. The

24:07

super this I was I'm trying

24:10

to figure it out of so

24:12

painter represented in attainable. Guy.

24:15

Arms and then I Also I think

24:17

especially the deeper and deeper you these

24:19

are Floor is underrated. You

24:21

know, To. The guy's gonna go out

24:23

there every day and place shortstop and hit

24:26

some homers and seals and bags you know,

24:28

doesn't really. Set. Hearts of

24:30

Slaughter and you know may not even

24:32

be relevant. And ten teamers and even

24:34

a by twelve team or. Ah,

24:37

where I have six shortstops. For some

24:39

reason. Ah, I've somehow kept on a

24:41

painting of Dame That my be where

24:44

I've been. I've made a mistake. It's

24:47

kinda like that old added to the gets

24:49

college football specimen a sale to get two

24:51

quarterbacks he might not have one right student

24:53

secure our whole I'm league. That

24:55

want to have audio crusoe? I I feel

24:57

I feel guy you have one. The problem

24:59

is you played deeper leagues and you've convinced

25:01

yourself at the other guys are all worth

25:04

holding onto because it everyday get right on

25:06

earth. I thought I'd twelve team bad said

25:08

I'm looking at the lights Do duties have

25:10

these guys here? Could he be happy? If

25:12

you have him and twenty team or a

25:14

as a tough toggle. Can

25:18

Tovar qualify as a load and player? Can I

25:20

start to like Tovar Because no one else really

25:22

does. I mean it to me. He's definitely though

25:24

there have there are people who like him. Now

25:27

I think he he qualifies for for raids

25:29

and barrels is loaded. Player is least proof

25:31

for you vs me he's out. you can

25:33

have tovar out. I don't care how terrible

25:35

toll vox with get suitable. The news and

25:38

notes: The Corey Seager and Josh Young expected

25:40

to be in the Rangers opening day lineups.

25:42

Pretty good news for the Rangers. I think

25:44

there was a nice discount on Corey Seager

25:46

for a little while during draft season. If

25:48

you haven't drafted yet, going to squeeze one

25:51

in here before opening day in some lexi

25:53

draft the weekend of opening day because they

25:55

play and. Longstanding. Leagues they

25:57

get together and he did get a few more themes

25:59

ending. Thing to think about like yeah, what about the

26:01

early drafts the early drafts all I got him I can't

26:04

take a horse here. He's hurt. He's hurt. How would I

26:06

drop a guy who's hurt right now? You know Well,

26:09

it seems like he is back from that sports hernia

26:11

and going having God, you know, it's like kind of

26:13

a similar deal Mm-hmm. Oh, did

26:15

I jump ahead on the run down? I'm on

26:17

the run down. No, he's there. There is

26:20

areas Shoulder could avoid IELTS

26:22

then I don't know what to learn

26:24

from it though because I you know It

26:26

is I kind of agree. You don't

26:28

really want to Buy injured

26:31

players. You don't want to buy

26:33

pictures with bad shoulders in March So

26:37

I wouldn't I wouldn't necessarily tell you

26:39

like oh You

26:41

know every time this is, you know something like

26:43

this you should you should buy I

26:47

would say That maybe

26:49

there's just a moment in every draft

26:51

where you say screw it. He's

26:54

fallen too far. I'm gonna take him That's

26:56

what I think it comes back to and there's

26:59

a few other players in this group I mean,

27:01

she's Yuri Perez Like we lived in some

27:03

uncertainty for what felt like at least a

27:05

week or so where he had the elbow

27:08

injury Everyone was so sad and seemed like

27:10

definitely Tommy John coming right and they diagnosed

27:12

them with elbow inflammation No

27:14

surgery needed at least not at this time

27:16

Which if you're buying that diagnosis

27:18

if you trust that that's all it really

27:20

is and he started playing catch over the

27:22

weekend then he's probably back

27:24

in a month or so like and that's sort

27:27

of in line for him to just be a

27:29

Regular starter the rest of the way without a

27:32

lot of restrictions. Obviously if he feels something in

27:34

his elbow He'll shut back death

27:36

again, but I'm kind of

27:38

cautiously Optimistic with Yuri at this

27:40

point just based on how things have progressed over

27:42

the last week or so Where

27:44

does that put Max Meyer? I've had a

27:47

lot of questions about Max Meyer, you know

27:49

Jared Jones made the opening day roster for

27:51

Pittsburgh And

27:54

you know, so there's a lot of people and

27:56

then Jordan Hicks had this 10 strikeout

27:58

game It

28:00

was against the A's. I do have to point out it

28:02

was the A's. Was it their A

28:04

lineup or their B lineup? It

28:06

doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

28:10

And so I've had some questions, oh, I want to get

28:13

Jared Jones. Do I drop this? Oh, and

28:15

so those are kind of three of the

28:17

hottest names is Max Myers, Jared Jones, and

28:19

Jordan Hicks in the 12-team atmosphere. And

28:24

I would say, so I

28:26

ask you, Derek Van

28:28

Riper, what

28:32

happens when Braxton Garrett and Yuri Perez are healthy?

28:34

What happens to Max Meyer? Well,

28:36

Meyer's workload is going to be

28:39

managed pretty carefully anyway. But

28:42

if we assume that everybody else

28:45

in that rotation is healthy. Did

28:48

Edward Cabrera have a similar situation to Yuri

28:50

Perez where it's like, it sounded bad at

28:52

first, it is shoulder versus elbow. Which

28:55

isn't that bad. An impingement. Who

29:00

had the impingement? Same

29:02

to Klana Han had the impingement. But

29:07

you could have the impingement and come back in

29:09

a month or six weeks and then tear your

29:11

elbow completely unrelated to the impingement. It was the

29:14

next year, I think he'd tear the elbow. Yeah,

29:16

that's sort of, that's what it seemed like in

29:18

the Klana Han example. It's

29:20

just the always having that risk of being a

29:22

pitcher. What do I think is going

29:24

to happen? Well, Luzardo obviously is in as long as

29:26

he's healthy. Yuri in the rotation as long as he's

29:29

healthy. Maybe they'd be careful with

29:31

Puck too. Like would

29:33

they give Puck a temporary break from starting?

29:36

Like I just think they're probably using

29:39

a six-man rotation once they get

29:41

everybody available. So it's

29:43

Luzardo, it's Perez, it's Garrett, those

29:45

are your first three. If you

29:47

keep Puck in, that's four. Cabrera,

29:49

Rogers, you'd bump Meyer as the odd man

29:51

out. I just assume one of those six

29:53

that I named before Meyer is probably going

29:55

to be banged up at any given time.

29:58

Like the odds of all of them being healthy. the head

30:00

of them seem pretty low and then in the

30:02

unlikely event that it happens you just bump one

30:04

guy in the long relief for a little while

30:06

because you got to manage their innings then they're

30:08

stretched out enough to quickly bump back into the

30:10

rotation without much difficulty and

30:12

they may just play help

30:15

permitting a schedule based game with

30:17

that group and give everybody a little bit of a

30:19

run in the bullpen to take a

30:21

few innings off. My answer to

30:24

that question was that Meyer

30:26

has better command and

30:29

Jones and Hicks have better stuff but

30:32

to be a starting pitcher I

30:34

do think command is important

30:36

even if we can't necessarily lock

30:38

this down. We talked about this

30:40

a little bit in New York.

30:45

When we're talking about starting pitching it's not

30:47

just success. It's success as a starting pitcher.

30:50

We know that Jared Jones, Jordan Hicks and

30:52

Max Meyer could all be closers. We

30:56

know that. I think we could say that.

30:58

We know that. Do we

31:00

know who's going to be a starter, who's going to be

31:02

a successful starter? I think Max

31:04

Meyer's command puts them a little bit

31:06

ahead in terms of that

31:08

likelihood. The

31:11

innings are a big question but maybe in a 12-teamer

31:13

you don't care about innings over the whole season. You're

31:15

just like, who's the better one right

31:17

now? I

31:19

don't know. I can drop these guys and

31:21

get somebody off the waiver later if they get managed.

31:25

I kind of put Hicks and

31:28

Jones together as wildish guys with

31:30

great stuff. All

31:32

three of these guys are likely

31:35

to get 90 to 100 innings this year. The

31:37

shape of the innings could be a little bit tricky with

31:40

all of them but they're all getting the chance right now.

31:42

I think you do have to play present

31:44

over future when you get to that point when

31:46

the season starts and you can run waivers. It

31:49

does feel like you're the meme. You're holding

31:51

hands with one person and checking out someone

31:53

else. That's

31:56

what the bottom of your roster is

31:58

every single year. Oh, I'm holding

32:01

hands. Oh, we just finished

32:03

off Jared Owens. Oh, Luis Hughes. Right.

32:05

You can't have all of these pictures

32:07

on your roster. I had a few

32:09

leagues that ran fab on Sunday night

32:11

and I barely bid because I happened

32:14

to guess right on a whole bunch of

32:16

different roster like job battles and different things

32:18

where I looked and I said, is there

32:20

a clear upgrade? Even though a

32:23

bunch of stuff has happened, some of these leagues drafted a month

32:25

ago. Most of mine were just swapping

32:27

out injured guys. Yeah, it was just, has anyone hurt?

32:30

Who can I pick up and then do I want to spend 10% of

32:33

my budget on something I don't need? I just made a

32:35

bunch of low bids and scooped up

32:37

a whole bunch of shares of

32:39

Brock Stewart and Trevor McGill. Yeah,

32:42

the hardest decision for me was I had

32:44

James MacArthur and was staring at Brock Stewart

32:46

and McGill. And so what I ended up

32:48

doing is just low bids on

32:50

Stewart and McGill because I knew that worst

32:53

case scenario, I still have MacArthur. In

32:56

the places I was most at first steals, for saves,

32:58

I tried to get Stewart and McGill on

33:04

alongside MacArthur. But

33:06

again, I bid like 12 bucks

33:08

each on those guys and just

33:10

tried to get lucky on a cheap

33:13

one. But yeah,

33:15

Luis Hill, I'm going to put

33:17

him behind Jones and Hicks in

33:19

this weird grouping of players

33:21

that I've put together just from

33:24

DMs and discord questions and stuff.

33:28

But they're hot names. The reason I want

33:30

to put Hill just behind Jones is that

33:33

I think they're mostly fastball slider guys. Heel's

33:35

change up is better than Jones' third pitch.

33:38

However, Jones' milieu

33:42

is way better. His park

33:44

is way better. His opponents are

33:46

going to be worse. I

33:48

think Jones is just more set up for success

33:51

right away. We could watch one start

33:53

of Hill and I'll feel like an idiot. Maybe

33:55

he'll just dominate. But yeah,

33:58

it's a tough park and it's a tough

34:00

division. He's going up against the Red Sox

34:02

offense, the Blue Jays offense, the Orioles offense,

34:04

you know. I don't think

34:06

that, you know, Jared Jones has the same problems.

34:09

I think there's a lot about

34:11

Heels profile that reminds me of

34:13

Hicks mostly when you see big-time

34:15

K-rates next to problematic

34:17

walk rates and

34:20

you say, okay, well there have been some

34:22

health issues. There's been a more consistent you're

34:25

a starter in the eyes of the

34:27

organization role where, you know, Heels appearances

34:29

outside of, geez, I

34:31

don't, has he had any relief appearances? I

34:33

think he had a couple spring appearances that

34:35

weren't starts but that's just because that's how

34:37

your innings show up over the course of

34:39

the year. There's only been a handful of

34:42

times the Yankees have used him as

34:44

a non-starter across all of his

34:46

time in their organization so they

34:48

at least see him as someone that is

34:50

worth trying to stretch out. The

34:53

K's should be there, the floor looks nice, I

34:55

do think the park makes things difficult but

34:57

yeah. You also take a look at a small

35:00

sample of a lower walk rate than he's ever

35:02

posted from what he did this spring

35:04

and you start to get a little bit optimistic.

35:06

So if I can learn Jones's walk rate went the

35:08

other direction and went back, back up. Yeah,

35:10

I think if I have Hicks

35:13

on my roster and I've got him a

35:15

couple places already and I'm looking at Jones

35:17

and Heel and Meyer, is there a clear

35:19

upgrade there? Probably not. Would I consider doing

35:21

the thing where I bid very low on

35:24

all three of the other more exciting options?

35:27

I probably would because I think

35:30

Max Meyer is the guy I actually want of the

35:32

group. I'm not worried about the

35:34

other Marlon starters all getting healthy. I think if

35:36

Meyer pitches well he could make

35:39

his case and keep a spot anyway, they

35:41

could trade pitching that's always an option for

35:43

them too. Whereas Heel has you know Will

35:45

Warren potentially looking over his shoulder. Eventually

35:48

Garrett Cole should be back in the fold and by

35:50

the way I had a draft last night, 260 budget,

35:53

15 team league, Garrett

35:55

Cole went for seven bucks. Is

35:58

that a risk worth taking at this point? Yes,

36:00

good cuz I got him I Didn't

36:06

have any plan of going in and adding Garrett

36:08

Cole on that team I'm like seven bucks for

36:11

four months of Garrett Cole. Yeah, I could figure

36:13

that out But

36:16

I think I'm Meyer Like

36:19

a Meyer Jones heel

36:21

in terms of long-term value

36:23

short-term value Good

36:26

luck I mean there's just so little that separates them

36:28

For me in the short term that I would have

36:31

very similar bids on all of them if I was

36:33

trying to replace someone that Was just

36:35

similar but not quite as exciting and Hicks is

36:37

pretty darn exciting even throwing out what he did

36:39

on Monday night We

36:42

have some we have some spring stuff

36:44

just to bring that into the mix

36:46

Max Myers slider 133

36:48

stuff plus great Max Myers forcing

36:50

fast all 83 stuff plus Change

36:54

up 71 so he's definitely one of these guys

36:56

who's gonna be pitching off of the slider However,

36:59

there's plenty of people who

37:01

have taken this package and run with it I

37:04

mean, it's a British is a guy who comes

37:06

to mind plus you've got the nice

37:08

really nice home park That

37:11

you can fall back on Luis

37:14

heel forcing fast all 149 stuff plus Slider

37:18

115 change of 108. This is the thing I saw 87

37:20

location plus on that change up And

37:25

so he tries to use

37:27

it as a freeze pitch because he's

37:29

very north-south With his rest

37:31

of his stuff and the change of his a power

37:33

sideways And so I think batters

37:35

mostly say I'm not gonna swing at this He

37:38

almost hit Trey Turner in the face with a 90 mile an

37:40

hour change up So he does not have

37:42

good command of that But when when

37:44

he does if he can just throw it in his

37:46

own, he'll get called strikes that line I

37:49

just a seven location plus meets my eye

37:51

test. I was like he cannot command that

37:53

pitch So then he becomes this

37:55

two pitch pitcher Why does he have high walk rates

37:57

and a lot of games start in the minor leagues?

38:00

because he's probably working on that change up. I

38:03

think he can man the other two pitches. Who

38:06

else do we have here? Hicks, I don't know

38:08

that I need to break this out. Yeah, Hicks,

38:10

we have an established situation where it's great

38:12

stuff numbers on all its pitches, even the splitter and

38:16

in poor location numbers. And then

38:18

Jared Jones, Jared Jones and Heel

38:21

actually were tied in stuff plus and

38:23

like at third and fourth among track

38:25

pitchers in the major leagues in spring

38:27

training. Jared Jones 148 stuff

38:30

plus on the fourth team, 123 on the cutter, 121 on the slider,

38:35

and 98 on the curve ball. If

38:37

he really does have four distinct pitches like that,

38:40

then I think long

38:42

terms, I want Jones. I

38:44

think there's arguments to be made for

38:47

anybody in that group because they're all

38:49

interesting for slightly different reasons. The

38:52

other guy that's not part of that conversation now,

38:54

but could be part of a conversation like this

38:56

in the future is Paul Skeens, because he's gonna

38:58

start the season at Triple A. Bailey

39:00

Falter, I believe, has a spot in the rotation

39:03

for the Pirates right now. That

39:05

would be the, who

39:07

could cough up a spot for Paul

39:09

Skeens? I think Bailey Falter would be

39:12

my first choice of like most likely to be shifted into

39:15

more of a long relief rule. Because Contreras

39:18

and Luis Ortiz,

39:20

interestingly, guys who have popped in stuff

39:22

plus in the past, but Contreras

39:24

couldn't keep his fastball shape. Ortiz

39:27

couldn't command it, look

39:29

like they're in the bullpen. Ortiz could

39:31

come back out of it, I think easier than Contreras.

39:35

But they've also got Quinn Priester, and

39:38

they even signed Domingo-Hermont. So there's other

39:41

options that Bailey Falter hold on

39:44

that position seems like

39:46

it could falter quickly. Yeah, nice

39:49

first start of the season too for Jared

39:51

Jones. I think he gets the Marlins during

39:53

the opening weekend. So probably has some streaming

39:55

appeal even in some of those more shadow

39:57

leagues out there that have first-hand, first-hand, first-hand.

40:00

First served moves some

40:02

other injuries to get to how about Paul Seawall

40:04

the grade two oblique strain So we're right back

40:06

to where we were You know this time last

40:08

year looking at this Arizona bullpen and trying to

40:11

figure out who actually is the

40:13

likely Candidate for most

40:15

saves names include Kevin

40:17

ginkle Ryan Thompson Scott

40:19

McGuff Maybe there's other

40:22

sleepers in there. I think it's gotta be a

40:24

ginkle Thompson you've got

40:26

that that The very

40:28

few closers have had that arm

40:30

slot Yeah, you know real

40:32

low and if it leads

40:34

to platoon splits It's it's not a power

40:36

pitcher people want a power pitcher. Kevin ginkle

40:38

was a power pitcher I mean

40:40

Justin Martinez, I think he got sent

40:42

down Yeah,

40:45

really good stuff but look very very low

40:47

grades on the command right now Yeah, they

40:50

they optioned him they option him on the

40:52

10th of March. So he wasn't even hanging

40:55

around for long so

40:58

It's ginkle for me Maybe Martinez comes

41:00

up for the roster slot and becomes part

41:02

of that bullpen But I you know that

41:05

I guess they can't depend on his command

41:07

in the night That's

41:09

getting cool for me. Are you ready to

41:11

throw? 1520 plus

41:13

percent here budget at Kevin ginkle like doesn't that

41:16

that drive you a little bit nuts when it comes

41:18

to fantasy baseball Where you have this

41:20

player that you outside of like NL only leagues

41:22

or draft and hold you you wouldn't have stashed

41:24

away Because Paul see you all the pretty solid

41:26

closer See you all gets hurt and

41:28

all of a sudden. Nope. There goes 20% of

41:31

my fab budget if I need saves like that's I don't

41:33

know. It's something about that's frustrating. I've just never

41:35

I've never I won't do it even

41:38

10% I Like

41:41

I said, I I put you

41:43

know $15 out of a thousand on

41:46

Brock Stewart What I

41:48

want to do is get that guy a week

41:50

early. Yeah, you know So

41:54

I tend to have I tend to

41:56

just dedicate one dense slot to prospecting

42:00

on saves so that I can spend $15 rather

42:02

than $200. I

42:04

don't ever want to spend $200. You could spend $200 on

42:06

Ginkle, get four saves, and

42:09

then Seawall's back. I mean,

42:11

with a grade two oblique strain, the window's a

42:13

little bit longer, but it's still a situation where

42:15

Seawall should be the guy once he gets back.

42:18

That hopefully will temper the biz a little bit

42:20

on Ginkle. But I'm with you. I think Ginkle

42:22

is the clear cut next option up for

42:25

the Dbacks. Jordan Romano is likely

42:27

to begin the season on the IEL with

42:29

what they're calling elbow inflammation. So similar to

42:31

the Yuri Perez diagnosis in that, it doesn't

42:33

seem like there's a structural problem in play

42:35

here. And given that he's

42:37

a veteran reliever as opposed to a very

42:40

young future ace, maybe

42:43

there's a quicker return for

42:45

Romano. The other problem for the Jays

42:47

in the short term, though, is Eric

42:49

Swanson, who might be the next option

42:51

up ordinarily, is down with a forearm

42:53

injury right now. So is it Yemi

42:55

Garcia, Chad Green, or somebody else that

42:57

you're looking at as a short term

42:59

replacement for Romano in Toronto? I

43:02

was talking to a Blue Jays coach,

43:04

and I think it's Yemi,

43:08

really. Yes.

43:12

Don't trust me. I'll

43:15

call him Garcia for now. Garcia

43:19

has had a good spring. Stuff-wise,

43:21

I really like Chad Green, and

43:24

I think he could do the job. I

43:27

think that we are all humans,

43:29

though, and you're

43:31

going to look at that 7-8 ERA for Chad

43:33

Green and

43:36

be influenced by it, even if you think his stuff is

43:38

good. So I'm

43:40

thinking Green is the setup guy, and

43:43

Garcia is the closer. I think there's even been

43:45

some comments to that effect. Yeah, it

43:47

does seem like Garcia has the inside track. On

43:51

a personal note, I think Igariega is

43:53

the most ridiculous letter in the alphabet

43:55

in Spanish. It's just the letter Y,

43:57

but it doesn't appear in a

43:59

lot of words. You know stand

44:01

alone. It means and like there's just there's a

44:03

lot going on there So I

44:05

need to go take another Spanish class and

44:07

wasn't there even some discussion with Jordan Alvarez

44:10

is actually Jordan Alvarez I remember that beginning

44:12

his career and everyone's still calling him your

44:14

Don. So I don't know Take

44:17

a lot of Spanish. No one ever told me to pronounce

44:19

wise like J's Yeah, but

44:21

it was like regional differences. There's right Rico.

44:24

There's Cuba Again,

44:26

maybe didn't take enough years of Spanish needs

44:28

maybe more So they

44:30

didn't have a poor degree. I don't know

44:33

now. I've got it. We got to dig in even further

44:36

Some other news Brian Wu will begin

44:39

the year on the aisle with elbow

44:41

inflammation news came down Like

44:44

I was clicking Brian I

44:46

clicked Brian Wu to pick him and then some of the

44:48

chat goes you didn't see the news And

44:50

I click over to see the news and I was

44:52

like that news came in like a minute

44:55

ago you Like

44:58

you saw this news so you have like Big

45:01

trade forces something open watch draft man I

45:04

should have but I was trying to draft

45:06

from a little league baseball game. So sorry

45:08

I know I didn't see the news dang

45:10

it limited screen resources drafting from a game

45:13

like that Came right

45:15

after I took verlander where I was like, he's

45:17

an injury stash. We got unlimited. I know it's

45:19

perfect Yeah injury

45:21

guy injury guy nice Later

45:24

I took the Grom just to just to throw it

45:26

all in there Might as well if

45:28

you got the spots to stash them away With

45:31

Wu the good news here is they did

45:33

have him go through an MRI it came

45:35

back clean They're hoping seven to ten days

45:37

of rest. He'll start throwing again. So Emerson

45:39

Hancock steps in for now, but it may

45:41

be April or even

45:43

just part of April before Wu was back

45:45

in the equation for Seattle Yeah,

45:48

I'm hoping you know when I was doing

45:50

my main event draft Which

45:53

I just completed we kind

45:55

of had pitchers in two buckets one was

45:57

missus a month Where

45:59

it's just a little bit harder to like hold

46:01

them and think about them and maybe it's gonna

46:03

get worse you know and misses a couple weeks

46:06

and we we had a little bit of distinction

46:08

there I I think we was

46:10

on that side closer to the couple of weeks

46:12

than the full month yeah based on we know

46:14

right now I would agree with

46:16

that assessment circling back to

46:18

the Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez has a lat

46:20

injury so he was placed on the

46:23

aisle that opened up a spot for

46:25

both Ryan Nelson and Tommy Henry to

46:27

begin the season the more I look

46:29

at that bullpen or that rotation the

46:32

more I think Ryan Nelson's probably the

46:34

permanent fifth starter once erod comes back

46:37

because it was sort of announced that Henry

46:39

was in because of the Eduardo Rodriguez right

46:41

which sort of assumes that Nelson's in already

46:45

and the lat strains are this is

46:47

a this is difficult for a lot of reasons

46:49

one is that it

46:51

sounds like back but it's really kind

46:54

of part of the shoulder apparatus like

46:57

it's really it's all tied together it's you know

46:59

it's it's hard to be like oh this is

47:01

a very distinct injury but

47:04

also and whatnot yeah exactly but also

47:06

it's an actual injury was we just

47:08

talked with that who and

47:10

Cabrera impingement is close

47:14

but you know some of these inflammations are

47:17

are less likely to be an

47:19

actual injury they may turn into an injury or they may

47:21

be hiding an injury sometimes you do a scan if you

47:23

have the information we heard learn this a little bit we

47:26

were talking about this whichever may which is like if

47:28

you have swelling if you have inflammation sometimes you don't catch

47:31

the actual injury so it could turn

47:33

out that some of these inflammations or

47:35

injuries but I will take inflammation over

47:38

an actual strain so if

47:40

I had Eduardo Rodriguez and there were options

47:42

out there on the wire and it wasn't

47:44

a Kiever League I've

47:46

already been the low man but I would just

47:48

drop Eduardo Rodriguez that's

47:50

the easy way to go in

47:52

shallow leagues deeper leagues a little

47:54

tougher again a 15-teamer he's is

47:57

he good enough to hold on to like he's right on

47:59

that borderline for me. I wouldn't,

48:01

I think I have a great 60th,

48:04

so I feel like he's pretty close to the

48:06

streaming line anyway. Yeah, if he's that close to

48:08

the streaming line for you when healthy, then I

48:10

think it's an easier drop for you. I think

48:12

I'm a little higher on E-Rod, but tough

48:15

call to make for sure. A

48:17

few more news and notes here. Jackson Holiday

48:19

falls short of the Orioles opening day roster.

48:21

It seems like he was heating up as

48:23

the camp went along as well, but the

48:25

question for most people is, how long do

48:28

you think we're going to have to stash

48:30

Jackson Holiday in redraft leagues before he breaks

48:32

through with the Orioles? I

48:35

believe that the kind of

48:38

Super 2 area,

48:41

like the extra year of team

48:43

control, whatever, is May

48:45

25th for

48:48

players who don't have any time. So

48:52

he could be magically ready in late May.

48:56

There was a 30% strikeout rate this spring

48:58

that was pretty surprising to everybody because it

49:00

came with a 19% whiff rate where he

49:03

had 8s and 9s before. So

49:06

I'm sure that was part of the

49:08

sort of surprising underlying numbers that they

49:12

just wanted to see him go back to AA

49:14

or go back to AAA and mash again. There's

49:19

also the question of who's

49:22

he replacing? So if

49:24

Westburg's playing fine, then

49:27

what's the deal? What do you need to pick him up

49:29

for? I guess you're

49:31

playing Ureas at third. Yeah.

49:35

It's just not that high of a bar. I think

49:37

if he goes to AAA, mashes for

49:39

a couple of weeks, gets the K rate down,

49:41

they could say, let's just go for

49:43

the rookie of the year award. Let's go for

49:46

that draft pick compensation and play it that way.

49:48

Oh, I had somebody point out this. This is

49:50

interesting. On holiday, I

49:52

don't know that you're going to platoon him, but he

49:54

is a lefty batter and there's a weird twist of

49:56

the schedule. I think the ores start

49:59

with like four. lefties in the first five or

50:01

six games. So,

50:03

uh, it's possible that you just

50:05

would want this guy to hit the ground

50:08

running and not, you know, Hey,

50:10

opening day, you've got five lefties in a

50:12

row. That's fair.

50:14

Yeah. And I think with where he was

50:16

going in read draft, I think you, you

50:18

knew this was a possible outcome and you

50:20

probably had a fixed number of lineup periods

50:22

that you hoped you'd be able

50:24

to stash him for, I would guess

50:26

the month for most people, if it's not up

50:28

by the end of April and you don't have enough

50:30

bench. You're not going to wait all the way to May 25th.

50:33

I don't think so. I mean, most likely your roster is

50:35

not going to hold out. They

50:38

take time to hold shape that long. Worked

50:40

that way. Um, they did put Colton couser

50:42

on the opening day roster. He had a

50:44

huge spring. The playing time questions in

50:47

the outfield or are just as interesting as what we've

50:49

seen in the outfield and with couser, he's a lefty

50:51

in an outfield that has a few

50:53

different options between, you know, Mullins being the center

50:55

fielder. Sontagner being a switch hitter

50:58

and Austin Hayes being a

51:00

righty, like that looks like the best

51:02

path is wrestling playing time away from

51:04

Hayes. And then of course, you know,

51:06

pushing someone else into the DH mix

51:08

along with Ryan Mountcastle, but between

51:10

O'Hern and Mountcastle at first base in DH.

51:12

That's the other spot you could look at

51:15

and say something could give with one of

51:17

those guys, you shift everybody around a little

51:19

bit and suddenly Colton couser ends up with

51:21

a spot to call his own. So another

51:23

kind of fluid aspect of what the Orioles

51:25

have right now. Yeah.

51:28

Uh, jumping ahead again to

51:30

my player shares, Cedric Mullins,

51:32

I have five shares and

51:35

I've, I've got, uh, an

51:37

ongoing conversation, uh, with

51:39

somebody in my, in my DMS about,

51:42

uh, we've got a beer riding on

51:44

it now. I

51:47

use the reason, my reasoning for taking him

51:49

is he's, uh, usually available after pick one

51:52

50. Um, so

51:54

I usually get him in the 10th, 11th,

51:56

12th rounds. And he represents to me, a

51:58

guy, uh, who should hit. at least 15

52:00

homers and steal 30 bags. So,

52:02

you know, I pick 150 makes a lot of sense.

52:06

His line of reasoning is they're playing

52:08

Kouser in center. He's not

52:10

a platoon fit with Mullens cause they're both

52:12

lefties and his defense is not

52:14

as good as Mullens. So I think

52:17

the Kouser in center was just, can we play

52:20

him there sometimes? And

52:22

maybe they play him against lefties over

52:25

Mullens cause he's just a

52:27

little bit better against lefties than Mullens. I

52:31

still think Mullens is at least getting two thirds

52:33

and I think center field is a place you'd

52:35

rather just stick someone all the time. So

52:38

I'm also looking at this roster and saying,

52:40

you know, who is the guy, is there

52:42

somebody here that they're trying to sneak into

52:44

the organization? This is something that like Farhan

52:46

does where somebody makes the opening

52:49

day roster and then gets cut like two

52:51

weeks into the season because it's easier to

52:53

sneak someone through waivers once

52:55

the rosters are set and all the

52:57

other teams are like, no, I've got my roster. Do

53:00

I really want Nevan? I might've liked Nevan two

53:02

weeks ago but I made a decision

53:05

from this guy. So to me, it's maybe Tyler Nevan

53:08

cause I was looking, did Nick Mayton make this roster? No.

53:11

And who is the bottom

53:13

guy on this roster that made it? And

53:15

it's Tyler Nevan for me. Yeah, I think

53:18

it's Nevan and then Matteo. But

53:22

Rios and Matteo have like real

53:24

solid use cases. Yeah,

53:27

I think Rios' use case is better

53:29

for this roster. But

53:32

Matteo is infield-outfield. Right.

53:36

Which is really useful. So Tyler

53:38

Nevan is just a backup first baseman, Thursday's

53:40

an outfielder. That's

53:42

the Jackson holiday spot because you can play

53:44

Jackson at second where he was

53:46

playing all spring and play Westburg and Uris at third.

53:50

It's gonna work itself out. I'm pretty confident we're

53:52

still gonna see the guys that we wanna see

53:54

in Baltimore for most of the season even though

53:56

we're gonna wait just a little bit longer for

53:58

Jackson holiday to get that opportunity. We

54:00

may have a late shift in St. Louis as a

54:02

result of the collision in the outfield. I happen to

54:04

be watching this game on Monday afternoon. Jordan

54:07

Walker and Dylan Carlson conversed on the ball

54:09

in the gap. And kind of at the

54:11

last minute Walker tried to dive out of

54:13

the way and kind of went low on

54:15

Dylan Carlson. Carlson hurt his shoulder. I haven't

54:17

seen any follow ups yet as far as

54:20

whether or not there's structural damage. But if

54:22

Carlson were to miss time, they may have to

54:24

turn to Victor Scott earlier than they anticipated in

54:26

St. Louis. Yeah, I

54:28

saw some early bids, speculating on that. Victor Scott

54:30

is a burner, 105 steals across all the levels

54:32

last year or something like that.

54:37

He's a son of

54:39

sprinters. He was

54:41

telling me a cool thing about how his

54:43

dad used to hold an iron pole out

54:45

15 yards away

54:47

from him and tell him to sprint. And

54:52

he held it out so that he had to go under it. Because

54:55

it's good to stay low at first when you sprint

54:57

and then come up high and not just like come

54:59

up high right away. So he had

55:01

this like whole dad with the iron

55:03

pole that I thought was interesting. But

55:06

yeah, no, I think he's really

55:09

interesting. I think he has non-zero

55:11

power. So I think he's 10 to 15 homers, 50, 60

55:15

steals if you gave him a full year. Obviously

55:19

for me, the best defensive center fielder

55:21

that they have as an option. Yeah,

55:24

it'd be a tough break for Carlson if he

55:27

loses this job while he's hurt. But

55:29

at least it's a possibility because Scott

55:32

really looks like the future in center field

55:34

for the Cardinals. Matt

55:36

McLean dealing with a shoulder injury, still not

55:38

sure what the result of his examination on

55:41

Monday will reveal, but just another

55:43

problem. It's so bad because the

55:45

bad words were uttered, surgery

55:48

is on the table. Yeah. So

55:50

this one, he's been dropping to a bench

55:52

pick where people are like, well, I'll drop

55:54

him if he has surgery. Yeah,

55:56

it kind of feels like that's the direction. That

55:58

story is headed. Garrett Mitchell

56:00

injury could actually open up more

56:02

time gonna lead off. Yeah,

56:05

it's gonna make the team So

56:08

Brewer's Twitter is still kind of in

56:10

me how good is Garrett Mitchell phase

56:12

Which is fair because it's

56:14

been a limited sample. He's been productive with

56:17

a really high k-rate That doesn't quite seem

56:19

like who he is the player Now

56:22

with Mitchell having a fractured left hand that's

56:24

gonna be a For

56:26

the six-week injury you're

56:28

probably gonna see Sal Freelik go back from the

56:30

dirt To center field and then

56:33

you see more Joey or T's at third

56:35

base That would be my my guess as

56:37

to like what the most common adjustment would

56:39

be roster Mitchell injury wemer comes back up

56:42

Yeah, wemer would be the extra outfielder

56:45

if they need another center fielder on

56:47

the roster. Yeah, but we were

56:49

wouldn't play much in that

56:51

configuration because of handedness

56:54

Right. Yeah, it'd be like mostly small side platoon.

56:56

I don't even know how much they're gonna sit Freelik against

56:58

lefties I think they're gonna let free look play against lefties,

57:01

but they were trying to get him in the lineup Yeah,

57:04

and I think with Freelik I think he makes a

57:06

lot more sense to me as a table setter in

57:08

the one spot than he did in the heart of

57:10

the Order last year where they were hitting him after

57:12

they brought him up. Oh, yeah

57:14

I mean, he's the contact guy

57:16

without much power high OBP speed

57:18

occasional power fits really well I

57:20

think at the top of

57:22

that lineup that appears to be the fallout of

57:24

the Garrett Mitchell injury We didn't get a chance

57:26

to talk about this yet either J.D. Martinez has

57:29

joined the Mets on a one-year deal and that

57:31

looks like it was the reason why Mark Vientos

57:33

has been optioned back to triple-a to start the

57:35

season it's awesome tweet that was like There

57:39

was like it showed a picture of the

57:41

Antos and J.D. Martinez talking to cage and

57:43

then underneath it said You

57:45

know J.D. Martinez Sorry for taking

57:48

your job kid and then the Antos

57:50

saying back. Well, you know, they

57:52

you know, it hasn't been determined You know,

57:54

you know, we'll see what happens and then

57:56

Jason Martinez says sorry for taking your job

58:02

Let me be a bummer to have a spot

58:05

that you think is going to be yours all

58:07

spring in the last 10 days, last week a

58:09

veteran comes in and you just know crap that

58:11

is. It's a lot of playing time that just

58:14

got chewed up by a signing where JD is

58:16

probably going to hit cleanup in this lineup. So

58:18

if there was a late draft season drop in

58:20

terms of where he was going, that

58:23

probably gets corrected over the last week. He's also not expected

58:25

to be ready for opening day. It's going to take a

58:27

little more time to get ready, but not

58:30

long after opening day, JD Martinez probably

58:32

hitting behind Pita Lanzo for the Mets.

58:35

And JD Martinez took the job, the

58:37

offer from the Mets over the

58:40

Giants. Both

58:42

of them have pitching friendly parks and

58:46

somebody was pointing out that the

58:49

different park factors and such and such.

58:51

But the one thing about park factors that

58:53

doesn't quite capture it all, and this is

58:55

something that players have actually literally asked me

58:57

to model for them, which isn't quite out

59:00

in the space. So if you want an

59:02

idea that isn't quite out there, is

59:05

more granular park factors. I

59:07

think I've seen some stuff about like sort of

59:09

center right or whatever, but like

59:12

doing a better job of like mapping expected

59:15

home runs and expected

59:18

output specifically with their

59:20

swings and their sort

59:22

of heat maps in

59:25

general, because he said specifically in the thing, particularly

59:28

those that go to right center. And

59:30

I have to say right handers that go

59:33

to right center do not fare that well

59:35

in San Francisco. That's called

59:37

triple's out. It's not

59:39

called home run now. No, and

59:41

JD Martinez isn't going to turn the double.

59:46

No, that's the downside. I mean, at this stage of his

59:49

career. If

59:51

you kind of look at his spray chart

59:53

from 2023, 11 homers were to dead center

59:55

and to right center. He had four that

59:57

were completely oppo to right. It

1:00:00

should be a little better for him at City Field than

1:00:02

it would have been in San Francisco.

1:00:04

I also think it would be a little weird

1:00:06

to have J.B. and Jorge Soler on

1:00:08

the same roster. Like, you don't want to play Jorge

1:00:10

Soler in the outfield a lot. Maybe that

1:00:12

offer is on the table for Soler. Yeah, it

1:00:15

might have been back then, but I

1:00:17

don't know. I'm okay with J.B. Martinez. He's

1:00:19

36 now. I think he's got that. Could

1:00:22

slip pretty quickly, even though the quality of

1:00:24

contact is so good. Injuries

1:00:26

have kind of been an on-again-off-again problem for him

1:00:29

too, so I'm not saying he's

1:00:31

a must-grab sort of player, but I'm

1:00:33

a little worried, especially with the K-rate jumping last

1:00:35

year. 31% K-rate's

1:00:37

a big, big leap for J.D. Martinez.

1:00:41

Could this team win a wildcard? Yes,

1:00:43

it could. All right, last

1:00:46

topic for today. Your most

1:00:48

heavily-rostered players for this season.

1:00:51

Who is important to several

1:00:53

of your teams? And before

1:00:55

we started recording, you

1:00:57

gave me a crack at the number one name on the list. I

1:01:00

think I narrowly missed, but number one is

1:01:02

not a surprise. If you listen to the

1:01:04

show, if you had three

1:01:06

guesses, I would say most of our listeners would

1:01:08

pretty confidently land it. Put a

1:01:10

name in your head now. Think for a minute. Who

1:01:13

do you think Eno's most-rostered player is so far in

1:01:15

2024? As

1:01:17

a run-up to this, I

1:01:19

just want to say that most-rostered players are interesting because

1:01:21

they are not going to be the players that you

1:01:24

necessarily think are the best. Because

1:01:27

the best players you

1:01:29

require, maybe it's a keeper league

1:01:32

situation, and Acuna's kept. I

1:01:34

obviously think Acuna is the best player in the big

1:01:36

leagues this year in terms of position players. Definitely easiest,

1:01:38

the best player. But how many times do I get

1:01:40

the first pick? That

1:01:42

actually happens to be a big deal in

1:01:44

the first 20 to 30 picks. If

1:01:48

I pick one, there's going to be picks

1:01:50

that I'm not accessible, like I can't get after

1:01:53

that. What ends up

1:01:55

happening is these lists end up telling you who

1:01:58

do you like late in a draft. That's

1:02:01

what you're doing because it's late in the

1:02:03

draft. You can jump a guy a round

1:02:05

or two off of ADP because it doesn't

1:02:07

matter as much. You know, like you're in

1:02:09

the draft taking the YOLO part of the

1:02:11

draft. So this is my

1:02:13

YOLO list and my number one is the

1:02:15

most boring player ever. It's not a YOLO

1:02:18

at all. It's Seth Lugo. Of

1:02:20

course it's Seth Lugo. And the reason

1:02:22

that he has shown up on so

1:02:24

many set places is that I

1:02:27

do take risk in my pitching staff. And

1:02:30

I see Lugo as one of the last

1:02:32

guys that is not that risky. I don't

1:02:34

think he's got great upside, but I think

1:02:37

I will start him 75% of the time

1:02:39

when I own it. I

1:02:41

think I'll start him for almost every start in Kansas

1:02:44

City and I'll start him half the time on the

1:02:46

road. And

1:02:48

a 75% starter where

1:02:50

he goes, he goes among the streamers, the 50%ers,

1:02:52

the guys that may not

1:02:55

even make the opening day roster. He

1:02:58

goes against the guys that you may drop two starts

1:03:00

in. So that's, I

1:03:02

take, okay,

1:03:04

so a couple spots down. Actually

1:03:07

next because there's a tie. So

1:03:09

I have seven shares of Seth Lugo. I

1:03:12

have five shares of Edward Cabrera. Now that

1:03:15

makes a lot more sense to

1:03:17

people being like, oh yeah, YOLO. But

1:03:21

Lugo and Cabrera are a package

1:03:23

deal. You know what I mean?

1:03:25

Lugo is the one that's going to make the

1:03:27

starts. Edward Cabrera is the one that I may

1:03:29

actually have to drop now. But

1:03:32

you know what I mean? Like it's the,

1:03:34

that's the pairing. And so Matt

1:03:36

Manning, I have five shares. That

1:03:38

one didn't work out. We'll see how long I hold on to

1:03:40

him. A lot of, and then a lot of these shares are

1:03:42

in different types of leagues. So I have Matt Manning and keeper

1:03:45

leagues where I just, I just hold on to him until he

1:03:47

comes back up. And he was,

1:03:49

he was, didn't cost anything. I'm Matt Manning and draft and

1:03:51

holds. Fine. I'm going

1:03:53

to do some innings at some point in the season. You know,

1:03:55

I'm not that worried to get sent down, but

1:03:59

Tanner Halk. He pairs with

1:04:01

Seth Lugo really well. You take a

1:04:03

Seth Lugo, you take a Tanner Hulk. You're hoping Tanner

1:04:05

Hulk is really really good

1:04:07

and you're hoping Seth Lugo just

1:04:10

stays healthy. That's the different, it's

1:04:12

like you know having different approaches.

1:04:14

So that's those are my, and then you

1:04:17

know I have what I have

1:04:20

four shares each of a

1:04:22

couple closers and it's funny

1:04:24

they're not what I think of the best closers but

1:04:26

I've been doing this thing where I take a top

1:04:28

closer and then I take a cheap closer

1:04:31

right and I take a real cheap closer. So

1:04:33

my most roaster roaster closers are

1:04:35

not the ones I think of the best

1:04:38

again but they are Robert Suarez, Hunter Harvey

1:04:40

and Carlos Estebes. Why? Because I look

1:04:42

up in the you know 20th round and

1:04:44

say which closers are left and

1:04:48

these are the ones that I actually I like them a little

1:04:50

bit. So if you want a late

1:04:52

closer Suarez Harvey and Estebes are

1:04:54

fine for me. Interesting

1:04:57

yeah I mean it makes sense like we've talked

1:04:59

about this a few different draft seasons now and

1:05:01

you end up with these later players that are

1:05:03

generally easier to get on your roster as your

1:05:05

most rostered players when you play a lot. Lugo

1:05:08

is just one that I'm happy you have them

1:05:10

as many places as you do because I know

1:05:12

sometimes you're in a room people know who you

1:05:14

like. He actually got tonight from me a couple

1:05:17

times. I could have had 10 chairs. I've got

1:05:19

like jeez four different sites I'm playing

1:05:25

on right now and I've got fewer

1:05:27

NFBC teams than usual but I got

1:05:31

four on the NFBC platform so far.

1:05:33

Luis Severino is on three and

1:05:37

I've got Severino in labor. I

1:05:39

got Severino in that auction from last night

1:05:41

like there's just he

1:05:44

is my most rostered player. I am

1:05:46

convinced and we talked about it throughout the

1:05:48

draft season that the struggles last year with

1:05:50

the Yankees were the function of tipping pitches

1:05:53

they were not the function of having really

1:05:55

lost stuff or lossy with the command

1:05:57

things and the floor

1:05:59

to me Is so much safer for

1:06:01

him at city field than it was

1:06:03

at Yankee State if you stay to Yankee I

1:06:06

would still have him in a couple places I would

1:06:08

not have him in this many places because it can

1:06:10

go so sideways when it's not

1:06:13

going well in a park like that Yeah,

1:06:16

no, I think that that's a great one. Do

1:06:18

I have a Luis Severino type picture

1:06:21

here? Oh, I have a Luis

1:06:23

Severino type. His name is Tyler O'Neill

1:06:27

Yeah, I'm kind of a similar hit her side. Yeah guy

1:06:29

that's like you own it before I mean Going

1:06:32

to a better park for his skills, you know

1:06:36

But I also I have

1:06:39

five shares of Reese Hoskins which

1:06:42

just sort of snuck up on me and I

1:06:45

think it's just because I

1:06:48

like that the projections say he's gonna be fine

1:06:51

and I'm just not that worried about that kind

1:06:53

of an injury for first baseman You know Yeah,

1:06:57

I think he's gonna roll out of bed and

1:06:59

mash again. I think it's you know another 30

1:07:02

type homers and a 250 average and I've

1:07:05

done a lot of builds where I can afford to take

1:07:07

a little hit on the batting average there and He

1:07:11

also represents a weird spot in

1:07:13

the first base rankings where he's the last one

1:07:17

that You know sort

1:07:19

of upper tier or like he's sort

1:07:21

of a tear break You know, and so

1:07:23

I end up being like well, I don't

1:07:26

really want Jamer Candelario is my

1:07:28

starting first baseman You

1:07:31

know, so I'm gonna go with Hoskins here

1:07:34

Yeah, I think that makes sense That's the

1:07:36

the last chance of a tier last chance

1:07:38

of a player type that definitely seems like

1:07:41

something good end up with a lot Cuz

1:07:43

it even if you use similar builds some

1:07:45

of those players fit multiple Foundations to the

1:07:48

do everything type players O'Neill's a little bit of

1:07:50

a do everything type So he makes sense of

1:07:52

someone you could always say this this helps me

1:07:54

rather than maybe batting average This is gonna help

1:07:56

me in all the other categories doesn't really matter

1:07:58

what I did at the start I'm

1:08:00

gonna go ahead and throw him on my roster here. I've

1:08:03

got a lot of Richie Palacios I missed out on

1:08:05

him last night because of Jason Colette not a surprise

1:08:07

Tried to sneak him through early for a dollar that

1:08:09

didn't work Had money trouble

1:08:11

as I often do in auctions spending too much

1:08:13

early I think about for the first

1:08:16

seven players for like a hundred and forty

1:08:18

bucks Yours

1:08:20

yeah That's

1:08:23

a Derek Van Riper build right

1:08:25

there. Yeah, it was the draft started at

1:08:27

bedtime build So if I get pulled away at it,

1:08:29

so I don't want there to be consequences for stepping

1:08:31

away If I got the foundation I like

1:08:33

you get all her guys on the wire Yeah,

1:08:36

I could miss five or six players, and I

1:08:38

probably wasn't gonna be on those players anyway I

1:08:41

do like playing that way and I did get

1:08:43

players I liked at prices I like it just

1:08:45

it was one of those things were like well

1:08:47

I'm aggressive here this won't be the worst time

1:08:49

to be aggressive given life factors I

1:08:51

ended up with a little bit of Starley Marte because of you

1:08:53

that's your Your four

1:08:56

four for me. Yeah, I'm more like two I

1:08:58

think two or three Across

1:09:00

all the rosters it would really help if I could like Multiple

1:09:03

I can make a spreadsheet I know how

1:09:05

but it'd be great if I could

1:09:07

just click a button and it would just be done for

1:09:10

me So I don't have to do it manually. Yeah, I

1:09:12

actually comb through all my different teams to add to my

1:09:14

it was it was not the most Scientifically

1:09:17

rigorous so I may have may

1:09:19

have lost some guys But I just sort of did

1:09:21

it by I started my days interesting to me just

1:09:23

because last year he was hurt

1:09:27

He was terrible. He's 35 and he stole 24 backs Hmm

1:09:33

in 344 played events, so it's like that's

1:09:35

a that's just a steel play for me

1:09:37

I'm just like hey, that's that's

1:09:39

the worst case scenario. I just get 25

1:09:41

bags in half a season. Yeah, man I'll

1:09:44

take it 25 bags 25 bags.

1:09:46

I need those it'll be nice Yeah,

1:09:48

you're done Alvarez on four teams. That's kind

1:09:51

of unusual That's

1:09:53

pretty high up. I think my highest up guide

1:09:55

is like that is Ellie do I cruise I

1:09:57

ended up with four shares I will say

1:09:59

two of them are keeper leagues. So

1:10:02

that means I picked them up as a prospect or

1:10:04

you know I once had a

1:10:06

birdie a whisper in my ear, and so I

1:10:08

went and picked him up as well. I think I

1:10:14

even said that on this pod at some point a

1:10:16

long time ago. So if anybody's

1:10:19

been listening for a while they know

1:10:21

that I've loved Ellie since that moment

1:10:23

because hitting the ball hard is I want

1:10:26

you to do two things. I want you to make

1:10:28

contact and I want to hit the ball hard. That's why I tell my kid. I

1:10:31

want you to do two things. I want you to make contact and

1:10:33

hit the ball hard. Play

1:10:35

split is good but you can

1:10:37

learn it over time. So Ellie's

1:10:39

my foreshare. Yordon, I would rather

1:10:41

have foreshares of Yordon, but

1:10:45

the cookie didn't crumble that way. Yeah,

1:10:47

I had a lot of late draft positions

1:10:49

over the course of draft season so far.

1:10:51

It just reminds me of 2022. That was

1:10:53

the year I had a bunch of Aaron

1:10:55

judge that year. Just I don't

1:10:57

know, like how do you not like a guy

1:10:59

that hits for average nearly 40 home runs of the

1:11:01

year before, steals a few bases, plays

1:11:04

in a great hitter friendly park, like ticked all the

1:11:06

boxes. I didn't expect the 16 steals or the 62

1:11:08

home runs, but it just

1:11:10

felt like a super safe player

1:11:13

could have one of those years where he pops. That's sort

1:11:15

of the mindset I think that

1:11:17

pushed me towards Yordon in so many of those

1:11:19

leagues. There's a statistical argument for

1:11:21

it too, which is just that home

1:11:25

runs are co-related. Co-related.

1:11:28

There's a co-correlation between home runs, runs batted

1:11:30

in, and runs. And

1:11:40

batting average really. I mean it's still a hit. So

1:11:44

there's more co-correlations with the

1:11:47

traditional five by five stats for a home

1:11:49

run than there is for a stolen base.

1:11:52

Stolen base is lightly correlated to runs, but

1:11:54

it doesn't mean you get a run right

1:11:56

away. So it's not even that. And you

1:11:59

can get runs. from guys that don't

1:12:01

steal bases, you know? It's,

1:12:03

so, you know, that's the

1:12:05

argument for punting stolen bases is that you

1:12:07

don't accidentally punt three

1:12:10

categories just by punting stolen bases. If

1:12:12

you punt homers, you're

1:12:15

punting like two or three categories. Like, it's

1:12:17

never a good idea to punt homers, I'm

1:12:19

pretty sure. If you're in a five by

1:12:21

five league and you punt homers, you are

1:12:23

probably not going to win that league. That's

1:12:25

what I think. It's very hard to find

1:12:27

a combination of players that does well in

1:12:29

everything else but is bottom of the pack

1:12:31

in power. And

1:12:33

the league also just doesn't reward

1:12:35

those players anymore. Maybe

1:12:38

in the 70s you could have had like

1:12:40

the all speedster, you know, shortstop guys, you

1:12:42

know, who hit 15 homers, 10 homers, but

1:12:45

the league doesn't play those guys anymore. You

1:12:48

know, my kid was asked about Brian Turing

1:12:50

last night, and he goes, don't

1:12:53

you think he could just keep playing because he's great at defense?

1:12:55

And I'm like, yeah, as a backup, like

1:12:58

I just, like that type of player doesn't usually

1:13:00

get a starting job anymore. There's very few

1:13:02

players like that. Even Victor Scott, the

1:13:04

reason I like him is because I keep saying he

1:13:07

has non-zero power. If he had zero power, it'd be

1:13:09

hard for him. What are we seeing with

1:13:11

Istori Ruiz? He's going to be platooned this year. It

1:13:14

has already begun. The

1:13:16

key difference for me with Ruiz and

1:13:18

even Tarang is that Tarang is a

1:13:20

premium defender and Ruiz is not. Ruiz

1:13:22

is not. And I think your only

1:13:24

path out of a part-time role with

1:13:27

that sort of profile as a hitter is to

1:13:29

be a phenomenal defender up the middle. And it

1:13:31

has to be its center or short or catcher.

1:13:34

Right. And Tarang, I think, got away with

1:13:36

it at second in part because the Brewers

1:13:38

had an everyday shortstop, and it

1:13:40

could reach a point where Tarang is a shortstop for

1:13:42

somebody because his defense is that good. I think they're

1:13:45

even holding him around in case he's the shortstop after

1:13:47

it down. I

1:13:49

think having Joey Ortiz there now

1:13:52

takes a lot of pressure away

1:13:54

from Tarang. It makes it quite

1:13:56

a bit less likely that Tarang's that guy now. Or

1:13:59

that Tarang. even plays. Yeah,

1:14:02

it's a legit concern. Other pitchers that have a

1:14:04

lot of places, Shane Bos by the way, like

1:14:07

four leagues now because I just have a fair amount of

1:14:09

I think a three or four shares. The timetable

1:14:12

is gonna be as long as everyone expects

1:14:14

it to be. I

1:14:17

think it's just massaging his innings. Well

1:14:19

yeah, you're backloading them because you wanted to be in

1:14:21

your rotation in the playoffs. Yeah,

1:14:23

I have other ones that won't surprise them. I have four

1:14:25

shares of Dean Kramer. Four

1:14:28

shares of JP France. JP France

1:14:30

is a little bit like Kramer where I'm like, hey,

1:14:32

do you know that he led the league in strikeouts

1:14:34

the year before he came up and struck nobody out?

1:14:37

I think, you know, and what he did in the

1:14:39

minors for France is he used the breaking balls a

1:14:41

lot and then he got to the big leagues and

1:14:43

I don't know maybe gave him a homer off a

1:14:45

breaking ball or something and just went to the changeup

1:14:47

a ton. I think he still has those breaking balls.

1:14:49

I still believe in France. I've

1:14:52

got four shares of Trevor Rodgers. Three

1:14:55

of Grayson Rodriguez. Three

1:14:58

of Joe Boyle has walked everybody

1:15:00

this spring. Yay, super excited for

1:15:02

those three shares. In the defense

1:15:04

of Joe Boyle, at least he

1:15:06

kind of showed you that

1:15:09

flaw before nine. Yeah, I

1:15:11

knew that. You knew going

1:15:13

in. And I didn't spend big picks on

1:15:15

them. Those are some real late picks. Some

1:15:17

higher ones that might surprise you. I have

1:15:19

three of Kirby. When

1:15:22

I could get him, I got him.

1:15:24

And then three of

1:15:27

Verlander where I

1:15:29

just think he's good and I know

1:15:31

he's a little behind but I put him a little bit

1:15:33

more towards the two weeks than

1:15:36

the four weeks. There

1:15:38

was never really an injury announced. It

1:15:40

was just that he's behind. So I like

1:15:44

Verlander there. And here's one that may really

1:15:46

surprise people. I haven't talked about him a

1:15:48

lot. I have three shares

1:15:50

of Michael Soroka. Yeah. We've

1:15:54

talked about him a little bit but I think

1:15:57

he's changed his pitch mix. I don't

1:15:59

have... spring training stuff numbers really, but

1:16:02

the strikeout rate is way up this spring,

1:16:05

and he's got all the road he can handle,

1:16:07

and I'm gonna give him some

1:16:10

of it. He's still only

1:16:12

26 years old, after

1:16:14

all the injuries and all the miss time, and

1:16:17

did it with different stuff and got great results, but this

1:16:19

might be a path for him to also

1:16:21

miss more bats, and we've talked about it. The

1:16:23

White Sox need him to take the ball as

1:16:26

often as he's physically able to, so

1:16:28

no pressure if things aren't going well for

1:16:30

a stretch. They'll keep letting him start, I

1:16:33

think, so long as he's healthy. So yeah, good kind

1:16:36

of late riser, I think, in draft

1:16:38

season, as someone who became a bit more interesting

1:16:40

in March than he might have been throughout most

1:16:42

of the winter. We'll

1:16:44

get to a few more players, I'm sure,

1:16:46

at some point. Maybe the players we regret

1:16:48

not having once the season officially starts. One

1:16:50

last thing is just, I have three hitters

1:16:52

here that do some things well, and I'm

1:16:54

just like, what have you added the next

1:16:56

thing? That's Ty France,

1:16:58

MJ Melendez, and Parker Meadows. I

1:17:01

have three shares each of those. It's like, you do

1:17:03

some good stuff. What if you hit the

1:17:05

ball a little bit harder? What if you struck out a little

1:17:07

less? What if you did this? So

1:17:09

I like taking guys

1:17:12

with medium ceiling, too. That's the kind of thing

1:17:14

I do, is these guys have medium floor, medium

1:17:16

ceiling. I don't expect any of them to be

1:17:18

stars, but their

1:17:20

prices are pretty low, and they do stuff. They

1:17:25

probably play, too. Yeah,

1:17:27

I think those are all pretty intriguing options

1:17:30

where they go mostly after pick 200, and

1:17:32

I think Melendez is gonna play

1:17:34

a lot. He doesn't have that catcher eligibility in

1:17:36

most leagues anymore, but I still like what he

1:17:39

brings to the table, hits the ball very hard,

1:17:41

could unlock a little more power this year

1:17:44

as part of that. Improving Kansas City lineup.

1:17:46

We are gonna go on our way out the door. A

1:17:48

reminder, get a subscription to The Athletic for

1:17:50

$2 a month for the first year. theathletic.com/rates

1:17:53

and barrels. Join the Discord, the link is

1:17:55

in the show description. Be

1:17:57

sure to like this video if you watched us on YouTube. Subscribe to the

1:17:59

YouTube channel. channel if you haven't done so already.

1:18:01

Schedule for the rest of the week. We're

1:18:04

on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Friday live with

1:18:06

Trevor May at 1 o'clock Eastern. We got

1:18:08

that back on the calendar pretty much every

1:18:10

week all season barring some unforeseen schedule related

1:18:12

stuff that comes up and I don't have

1:18:15

any stuff on the schedule. It's pretty pretty

1:18:17

consistent around here these days so that's gonna

1:18:19

do it for this episode of rates and

1:18:21

barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks

1:18:24

for listening.