0:00

This is a Relay Project.

0:03

Real Talk starts right now. Here's

0:07

Ryan Jesperson.

0:18

It's May 30th, it's the morning

0:20

after the Alberta election.

0:22

Jesperson

0:22

here with John Hicks in

0:24

just a second. City Councilor Sarah Hamilton.

0:27

We're going to talk to political columnist Rick Bell

0:29

today and Dr. Mark Crawford, a political

0:31

scientist, will join us in about a half an hour.

0:34

We know the numbers, at least we know

0:36

the ballpark right now. What we know for

0:38

sure is that Danielle Smith

0:41

and her United Conservative Party will form

0:43

government. Danielle Smith earning a mandate

0:46

last night, and I think what can be described

0:49

as a convincing victory.

0:51

Two seats off my

0:52

prediction yesterday, John. I

0:55

thought 47-40 might be how it would

0:57

play out. We're looking at 49 seats

1:00

right now for the United Conservatives, and

1:03

we'll see how that

1:04

plays out. Of course, some of these ridings still

1:06

in place, some of them within a couple of

1:08

dozen votes, and we're going to get some details

1:11

on that. But here's the deal. The

1:13

UCP won in the ridings that it absolutely

1:16

had to win, and sure, it surrendered

1:18

some of them, and we'll dig into the implications

1:21

of that. We're going to be looking to our email inbox

1:23

through this week. We want to hear from you, Real Talkers,

1:25

and how cool to mix and

1:28

mingle with some of our Real Talk patrons

1:30

last night at our election night VIP viewing

1:32

party. We've got a lot to talk about,

1:35

and you're going to find those conversations right here on

1:37

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2:20

Well we were grateful that Edmonton City Councillor

2:23

Sarah Hamilton found some time and a busy schedule

2:25

last night to hang out with us here at our

2:27

election night viewing party. And Councillor,

2:29

I think it's safe to say that once those

2:32

polls closed and the results started

2:34

to come in, although what the hell was taking

2:37

so long, the United Conservatives established

2:39

an early lead and really never looked

2:42

back. So at a high level, the

2:44

next morning, here we are, what are some of the

2:46

things that you're focusing on? What are some of the things that

2:48

have grabbed your attention?

2:49

Well I'm looking at who's

2:52

still around, who

2:54

can you make a cabinet out of essentially,

2:57

that old Ernest Manning quote. I'm

2:59

looking at who won and who lost and really

3:02

what's going to happen for the city of Edmonton because

3:04

we know Deputy Premier

3:06

and Minister Casey Maydew lost

3:09

to Nathan Ip last night. What does this mean

3:11

for the city of Edmonton

3:13

having no representation in cabinet

3:17

and limited representation frankly in the capital region?

3:19

Yeah and literally

3:21

zero representation in the city of Edmonton

3:23

for the United Conservatives. That one seat that

3:26

Maydew had obviously I think boded well

3:28

for his political career at the time ensuring

3:30

that Edmonton had a cabinet position. But let's get

3:32

into it. Let me follow up on that question. What do you think

3:35

it does mean for Edmonton? May I

3:37

point out that some of your colleagues were

3:39

prominently and publicly door knocking for

3:42

the party that will form the official opposition right now.

3:44

You had Edmonton councillors stomping for

3:46

the NDP. Is that bad news for Edmontonians

3:48

now?

3:48

I think that everybody

3:51

is going to be taking a close

3:53

look at how you build a relationship with

3:55

the incoming government. How do you

3:57

make the case that Edmonton's priorities are the priorities of

3:59

the party?

3:59

of Albertans and that investment

4:02

in Edmonton and the capital city of

4:04

Alberta is a worthwhile investment. And

4:06

that means a little bit of humility, I

4:09

think on our part, it means a little bit of humility

4:12

and a desire to see relationship

4:14

building from the

4:16

sort of newly formed provincial government.

4:19

Are you surprised by

4:21

the wind? Did the electorate

4:23

or did the pundits or did some of the loudest

4:26

voices ahead of time with their predictions

4:28

underestimate Daniel Smith?

4:29

I think we've learned this lesson

4:32

time and again. You, we continue

4:34

to underestimate Daniel Smith and

4:37

she keeps pulling it off. I,

4:40

a year ago, wouldn't have thought that she'd take the UCP

4:42

leadership. I think a lot of people got

4:44

that wrong. I think six

4:47

months ago, people thought that, you

4:49

know, the NDs had a clear victory

4:52

ahead of them with her and

4:55

once again, she's proven, she's proven the

4:57

pundits wrong. So I think that the

4:59

old Marie Hennen quote, underestimate me

5:01

at your peril, I think we continue to underestimate Daniel

5:03

Smith at our own peril.

5:05

Yeah, so now everybody's kind of wondering what's this gonna

5:07

look like and we'll dig into this from three different

5:09

angles. As we've said, today's show, we have the

5:11

politician, we have the pundit coming up and then

5:13

the political scientist. Daniel Smith

5:15

last night speaking pretty plainly,

5:18

essentially right to the prime minister, saying

5:20

we sure hope he's listening tonight. I'm sure that a member

5:22

of his staff at least was and

5:24

there's that saber rattling again. We can expect

5:27

the tone of that, but some people right now,

5:29

including those writing into the short game, what does

5:31

this mean for our pensions? What does this mean for the RCMP?

5:33

What does this mean for some of those

5:35

more local issues? Well, I

5:37

mean, we heard in that speech last

5:39

night, the classics of Alberta

5:41

politics, we heard the

5:42

economy, we heard energy and we

5:44

heard, you know, standing up to Ottawa

5:47

and it doesn't matter, I think, what political stripe

5:49

you are. Those are the talking

5:51

points that win you the hearts and minds of

5:53

Albertans time and again. I

5:55

think given, I mean, I'm

5:58

always

5:58

like reach out to your local. MLA, but

6:00

make your voice heard on those things like pensions,

6:03

those issues like healthcare,

6:05

whether or

6:08

not it's in Edmonton or broadly

6:09

across Alberta. What

6:11

does this mean for Rachel Notley, do you think? I

6:14

think it's safe to say that you would have looked

6:17

at all the factors, you would have looked at all things considered

6:19

and said, this is about

6:22

as ideal a circumstances you're going

6:24

to get if you're the NDP in

6:26

an election. The economy is in a relatively good

6:28

place, there's not as much anxiety

6:31

as there might be, it foils down at $35 a barrel. You've

6:35

got some controversy around some of the candidates,

6:37

you've got somewhat of a tough

6:39

to read leader with the UCP

6:42

for some people that are going, what might

6:44

Danielle Smith look like over four years

6:46

as premier? And still,

6:48

they wind up losing, people are

6:50

I think widely expecting Rachel Notley to stay

6:52

on for a while, we'll see what that looks

6:55

like, probably not until the next election. What

6:57

are your insights?

6:58

Well, I think what we're going to hear over the next

7:00

couple of days is did the UCP win

7:02

this election or did the NDP lose it? I

7:05

don't know that the UCP ran a great campaign,

7:07

but I don't

7:08

think the NDP did either. For

7:10

a lot of people, it was missing a shot on an empty net.

7:13

And so I'd be looking, how

7:15

did you fail to appeal to Albertans in what

7:18

seemed to be a very winnable election? And

7:21

conversely, if you're the UCP, did

7:23

you learn any lessons out of this? You lost 10 seats

7:25

from last,

7:26

is that to be expected? Or

7:28

are you going to do that necessary soul searching

7:30

to make your case as the government of this province?

7:33

Yeah, and then conversely, you

7:35

go, okay, well, the UCP do lose 10

7:37

seats, but they retain a majority government.

7:40

Danielle Smith earns a mandate, wins her first general

7:42

election as leader of a party. For

7:44

her, you have to know this probably feels like

7:46

a long time coming. There's been a lot that's

7:48

happened between the last time she ran in 2012 and this

7:50

time around. And

7:53

leaders all, you know, often, let me say, have

7:55

to put up with this.

7:56

You know, the knives are out. Who are

7:58

the friendlies and who are the foes?

7:59

amongst that caucus, she'll be making cabinet

8:02

decisions. Do you feel like putting your neck

8:04

out there and forecasting what in this

8:06

context, what the next six to 12 months

8:09

might look like for Alberta's premier elect?

8:10

Oh, I mean, once again, I think

8:13

that there was lots of chatter about,

8:16

you know, the lead, like she might not last

8:19

as leader.

8:20

I would say anything goes at this

8:22

point. She's proven that she can deliver

8:24

for, like on her

8:26

electoral promises. And I think some of the

8:29

things she was talking about last night that appealed

8:31

to the people who didn't vote for her, I think

8:33

shows that desire to

8:36

pivot and govern responsibly

8:39

and

8:39

respectfully. So

8:40

we haven't heard a lot of that kind of rhetoric lately

8:43

in politics. It took me a little bit by surprise,

8:45

enough that I wrote it down, but it, you know,

8:47

it was a bit of a relief to hear thing,

8:50

honestly. Yeah, yeah,

8:52

we'll see what happens. I mean, this is always kind of

8:54

the interesting point. You know, you get to the results,

8:56

now we know what it looks like, and then now it feels like it's

8:58

just the beginning. You're alluding to

9:00

just as much in this relationship.

9:02

I mean, I guess not a lot changes really

9:05

between, you know, Edmonton City Council and the provincial

9:07

government. You've got some familiar faces there. Who's gonna

9:09

be the minister of municipal affairs? Will be a big

9:12

and interesting question. You know, who will take that portfolio?

9:14

You wonder if Rebecca Schultz might keep that one. She

9:16

might, but she's also now in a more

9:18

powerful position. She's one of the few returning

9:20

cabinet ministers. And

9:23

a different dynamic that we haven't talked about yet

9:26

is the next group to go to the ballot is

9:28

the municipalities. So, balls in

9:30

our court in terms of delivering on our promises

9:33

for our constituents.

9:35

Well, give us an issue to focus on there. I,

9:39

housing is a big one,

9:40

I think, but also revenue

9:42

generation. We have attention,

9:45

property taxes. There's been stories

9:47

over the last couple of weeks, people seeing expenses escalate,

9:50

but municipalities have limited, limited

9:53

tools to deliver on what

9:56

cities, what cities across

9:58

this province are facing, whether it is housing, whether

10:00

it is the sort of

10:02

need for services. So that that's

10:04

a complicated conversation, requires

10:07

collaboration and it requires a collaborative

10:09

approach.

10:10

So you got to you got to go in with an open

10:12

mind and an open heart to those conversations. I

10:16

feel like you're kind of communicating with your council colleagues

10:18

right now through Real Talk which I don't mind at all I don't

10:20

mind one bit. Also really appreciate you

10:23

getting up early after a late one last night it's

10:25

good to see you again. Twice in 12 hours around

10:27

the Real Talk table here we go. You

10:28

got great you had you had a great we had

10:30

a great time last night you've got great listeners. Yeah

10:33

I appreciate you saying that yeah it was amazing to have

10:35

some of them here and meet them in person. Some people out

10:37

of the chat, some people out of the email inbox

10:39

put some faces to names it was awesome. Thanks

10:41

for being here counselor we appreciate it. Anytime. That's

10:43

Edmonton City Councilor Sarah Hamilton coming

10:45

up in just a second political columnist Rick

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Sun columnist Rick Bell in just a

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second.

13:59

Here a little bit from Alberta's Premier

14:02

Elect Danielle Smith. Here she was

14:04

taken to the stage late last night.

14:07

The results taken a while to roll in. But

14:09

once it was confirmed that she'd

14:11

won her first general election, here's

14:13

a little bit of what she had to say. And

14:15

just as I would like to thank the hundreds

14:17

of thousands of Albertans who voted

14:20

for the UCP today, I want to speak for

14:22

a moment to every Albertan who

14:24

did not. I want you to know that my oath

14:27

is to serve all Albertans, no matter

14:29

how you voted. And

14:36

though I didn't do enough in your judgement to

14:38

win your support in this election, I will work

14:41

every day to listen, to improve,

14:43

and to demonstrate to you that I can

14:45

be trusted to improve on the issues

14:47

that you care so deeply about. Now

14:50

I won't be perfect, of course. We

14:52

all know that. But when I make

14:54

a mistake, I will listen correct course and

14:56

learn from it so that I can improve and become a

14:58

better leader. And so I invite all Albertans,

15:00

regardless of who you supported in this election,

15:03

to reach out to me with your ideas

15:05

and your concerns and your questions. That feedback

15:07

that you give me, positive and negative, helps

15:10

make our UCP caucus and I to

15:12

make better decisions. And that is what

15:14

a healthy democracy

15:15

is all about. That

15:18

was Danielle Smith last night.

15:20

A bit of an olive branch to those that

15:22

did not vote for her or the United Conservatives.

15:25

Rick Bell, of course, has been covering

15:27

Alberta politics for many years.

15:30

And he was killing it last night. Great to see him on

15:32

the CBC and grateful that he's making some time

15:34

for us this morning. Kind

15:36

of a nice in the spirit of a healthy democracy,

15:39

a message from the premier elect to those that

15:41

didn't have the nicest things to say about her heading into it.

15:44

Were you surprised by that? There wasn't exactly

15:46

gloating, I wouldn't say. No,

15:49

I wasn't surprised at all. That's

15:52

the sort of thing you have to say on election night. What

15:55

was interesting is, first off,

15:57

I bet 50 seats. Tyler

16:00

Chandra would actually won a couple

16:03

more votes. It would have been 50, but

16:05

it looks like it's 49. Yeah,

16:07

well, Rick, there's a couple of ridings that are still

16:09

within 20 votes, 30 votes. I mean,

16:12

that's what I mean. Yeah, so it could be as much

16:14

as it could be 50, 51. Yeah.

16:17

But I picked 50.

16:18

But

16:19

interestingly, I was just looking at

16:21

a column I wrote on October 13th,

16:24

right after she won the leadership.

16:26

I call them that a lot of people laughed

16:29

at Smith about. Called Dan.

16:31

I'm looking at right now, Danielle Smith, how

16:34

she thinks she'll win the next election.

16:36

Yep. Keep the rural,

16:39

win 10 to 15 seats in Calgary.

16:42

Bingo! Exactly

16:44

what she did. Yeah, and that was probably. And

16:46

people said, no, you should be going after every

16:49

vote. Why are you writing off certain parts

16:51

of the province? Blah, blah, blah. But

16:53

in the end, now she's got a problem. Now

16:56

because she only has a dozen

16:58

big city seats,

17:00

but that was her strategy. Keep

17:02

that rural base happy and

17:04

win enough in the Calgary

17:06

suburbs

17:08

to get over the finish line. Well, okay, so

17:10

you say that she's got a problem now because

17:13

they've surrendered, let me not say

17:15

surrendered, but they lost some of the big

17:17

city seats. Are you talking about in the process of

17:19

forming a cabinet? Like why exactly?

17:21

She's got majority government. She's got a mandate

17:24

for- I just think

17:27

when you only have a dozen seats

17:29

for the two legs

17:31

of the stool of Alberta, of the three legged

17:33

stool,

17:34

yeah, she'll be able

17:36

to form a cabinet and that

17:39

will be fine. But I'm just saying, she

17:42

probably want, deep down,

17:44

they probably wanted a few more seats. They

17:46

wanted a Tyler Chandra to win. They

17:48

wanted a Jason Coppino to win, even though they

17:50

knew

17:51

that was not necessarily gonna

17:53

be possible. But interestingly, remember

17:55

all the coverage. Everybody's forgetting the

17:57

coverage during the election. all

18:00

but you know all the videos,

18:03

all of the,

18:04

all of that stuff. And

18:06

in the end, it did, you know, it may have made

18:08

some difference, but she almost got

18:10

the same amount

18:12

percentage vote

18:14

as Jason Kenney.

18:16

The NDP went up,

18:17

but the Alberta party vote, which I think was around

18:20

eight or nine percent last time virtually

18:23

does not exist. Yeah. So it looks

18:26

like a lot of that, almost that Alberta party

18:28

vote almost totally swung to the NDP

18:31

and, and that's where they got their bump.

18:33

I think they got what, about a 10% bump. And I

18:35

think the Alberta party under,

18:37

uh, last time was about eight or nine percent.

18:39

Yeah. And not like, and Danielle

18:42

got like 42, 52, 53% of

18:44

the

18:46

vote. I mean, it was, and remember,

18:49

can we go back to the 2019 election?

18:51

Remember what was the big story

18:53

of the 2019 election in

18:56

the coverage, not jobs, economy,

18:58

pipelines, total carbon tax. That was Kenny's

19:00

agenda.

19:02

The UCP leadership race,

19:05

alleged corruption, the kamikaze

19:07

candidates were still waiting for that.

19:10

So, you know, it's interesting

19:12

what people thought the ballot question

19:14

was as opposed to what the ballot question

19:16

was. The ballot question did not end up

19:19

being Danielle

19:21

Smith, at least

19:23

not for enough people.

19:25

Some of these writings that were in play, we talked to Dave

19:27

Cornway yesterday and he's going, you know, keep

19:29

an eye on Calgary Elbow, keep an eye

19:31

on Calgary Glenmore. As it stands

19:33

right now, I mean, the numbers that we have right

19:35

now, Calgary Glenmore is, is being held

19:37

by the NDs, Nagwon Elgini

19:40

taking out the incumbent Whitney Isik by 30 votes.

19:43

It looks right now. 49.2% of the vote to 49.1% of the vote. It looks

19:49

like the NDs are going to take Calgary Elbow

19:51

as well, which was most recently held by United

19:53

Conservative Doug Schweitzer.

19:55

It was held before that. And I'm talking

19:57

a ways before that by Alberta Party

19:59

leader, Greg. Clark Calgary Elbow has been the home

20:01

of two premiers, Redford and Klein. Interesting

20:04

message being sent by Calgary, some

20:06

hard fought campaigns obviously down there. Can

20:09

I ask you big picture, did the

20:11

City of Calgary collectively send

20:14

a message? Rick and if so, what did Calgary

20:16

say last night?

20:18

Well, it's different parts of Calgary, as you know,

20:20

a city when you look at these actual writings,

20:23

the ones where, you know, you know,

20:25

there are a lot of writings where the UCP one

20:28

with reduced numbers. So obviously

20:31

there was some concern about that whole,

20:34

you know, what the NDP

20:36

was saying about Smith, risky, unpredictable,

20:39

bozo eruptions, you don't

20:41

know what she's going to do. It did have some effect

20:44

in Calgary.

20:45

It just didn't have enough

20:48

effect in Calgary. So there

20:50

is a message there. And you were asking, by

20:52

the way, about Rebecca Schultz. I think I heard

20:54

that last one. Finance minister.

20:57

Thank you. Let's move on to the next question. What gives you the

20:59

confidence there?

21:02

I think she'll want somebody

21:04

who is a moderate, suburban

21:07

Calgary

21:09

person

21:10

to be in that position. Because

21:13

again, they'll only have

21:16

what,

21:16

about a dozen seats in in

21:20

from from Calgary. So I think they'll want

21:22

somebody. And remember, she was during

21:25

the campaign and before the campaign, she

21:27

was often the person who introduced Danielle

21:30

Smith. She went, she

21:32

quarterbacked some press conferences

21:35

with Smith

21:36

for Smith.

21:38

So, yeah, I'm just predicting and I mean, it may

21:40

not be true. I mean, I'm just saying this off the top

21:42

of my head. Yeah. But I mean, a lot

21:45

of people. I mean, what is going to happen now

21:48

to the NDP? Well, you tell me, Rachel

21:50

Notley, I think, I don't speak for Rachel

21:52

Notley, obviously. But, you

21:54

know, I think that she stays on for, you

21:57

know, like what is sort of like a graceful.

21:59

She has, earned the rights

22:02

and the privilege, I suppose, of

22:04

writing her own departure, if indeed

22:06

that's what she chooses to do. I would suspect,

22:08

you know, I don't know, she rides it out for the next 12 to 18

22:11

months. They tee up a leadership race. What do you think?

22:13

No, but the big thing is not so much what happens to Rachel

22:16

Motley, but what happens to the NDP?

22:18

Because this particular strategy,

22:21

Danielle Smith digging up videos,

22:23

digging up stuff, the ethics commissioner,

22:25

that's all gone now. They can't use that

22:28

again. That's finished. That's done. So

22:30

now

22:31

Smith, they will have to attack her on

22:33

her governing.

22:35

So the NDP is going to have to make a big adjustment

22:38

now, apart from the fate

22:40

of Rachel Motley,

22:41

as to what they actually do, what

22:43

they actually stand for,

22:45

what they actually want the ballot question

22:48

to be, because the stuff, the

22:50

most of what they ran on is

22:52

gone now. It's done.

22:54

We don't need any more videos. We don't need

22:56

any more. What did Danielle Smith say

22:58

on talk radio or in

23:01

some podcasts? That's all done. That

23:03

ammunition has been spent. It's been

23:05

fired. So now, and

23:09

you know the natural, has Alberta

23:11

really changed? Well,

23:13

you tell me, let me take, Rick, let me,

23:16

let's take a look at one riding in particular. Here's

23:18

one that people were curious to see how it would

23:20

play out. Jennifer Johnson, the

23:22

controversial candidate in Lacombe, Pinocca,

23:25

Danielle Smith has said that Johnson

23:27

will not sit as a United Conservative, at least

23:30

at the outset of this

23:32

next legislative session. She dominated

23:35

in Lacombe, Pinocca, winning by more than 10,000 votes

23:37

with 67% of the vote. Lacombe, Pinocca, and

23:42

this is not a compliment,

23:43

also sent a very clear message to

23:46

the rest of the province and the rest of the country. What

23:48

does that tell you? Bigger picture.

23:51

Bigger picture is that was never a big story.

23:53

It was, it was a big story in the sense

23:55

of what was said, but it was not a big story in

23:57

the sense of moving the needle. But I never, I never, I never, I never, I never, I never, I never,

23:59

I never wrote about it, not because I

24:02

thought her comments were appropriate. They were definitely

24:04

not appropriate. Let me underline

24:06

that. Very much not appropriate,

24:09

but

24:10

they weren't moving the needle.

24:13

Or they may have moved the needle a little

24:16

bit in Calgary, but they didn't

24:18

move the needle enough because

24:20

when you're running, you want to run a campaign where

24:23

you can win.

24:25

I will say this, Daniel Smith is

24:27

capable of reasonable, normal,

24:30

pragmatic job performance.

24:33

And I think that if the team around

24:35

her is committed to keeping the focus

24:37

disciplined, then there's

24:40

a lot that will work in her favor economically

24:42

and otherwise. The NDP is going

24:45

to be an interesting one to watch, Rick, because there

24:47

will start to be rumblings. And

24:49

I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here, but there

24:51

will be rumblings around what the next

24:54

leadership of the

24:55

NDP might look like. I don't think that

24:57

they lost badly enough that Rachel Notley has

24:59

to walk away in the next two weeks. You're

25:01

right. We'll start to hear names. Some people will say

25:03

that maybe they go with someone like Shannon Phillips.

25:05

I think a lot of the NDP supporters like

25:07

what they see from Raki Pancholi up

25:10

in Edmonton. What do you think the future looks like of the

25:12

official opposition?

25:14

I think they have to do.

25:16

I think the last guest talked about

25:18

soul searching.

25:19

I'm sure there will be soul searching

25:21

on the UCP side, but they're still searching.

25:24

It doesn't have to be as intense right

25:26

now because they're still celebrating. They want

25:28

like it or not.

25:30

So I think the NDP is going to have to decide

25:32

who they are

25:34

because a lot of the, you

25:36

know, Danielle Smith is crazy stuff

25:39

again

25:40

can't be used anymore. Well, and you know, so

25:42

they fill that vacuum with something.

25:44

In other words, are they really the

25:46

unite the non-conservative party,

25:49

which would make them look something like the

25:51

Alberta party kind of a little bit like

25:54

sort of like a liberal party or are

25:56

they the

25:57

old NDP, you know, a let's

25:59

call.

25:59

at Social Democratic Party. I mean,

26:02

I think there's lots of

26:05

room for them to think about who

26:07

they actually are, what they consider

26:12

their being, you know, who they are. I mean,

26:15

I think a lot of people aren't

26:17

quite sure what that looks like

26:19

because, and

26:20

I understand why the NDP went

26:22

with what they did, it was such a tantalizing

26:25

target, Danielle,

26:27

you know, because of her past comments, because

26:29

of her past performance, because of her past history.

26:32

So that's largely what they went with,

26:35

but they

26:37

have to actually decide who they

26:40

are.

26:41

And,

26:42

you know, that's not going to be that easy because

26:45

an NDP, in my opinion, Alberta

26:47

has not changed enough so that a

26:51

so-called old school NDP would win. So

26:54

they've got to be something else. It

26:57

could be like here. No, my home province of

26:59

Manitoba, Gary Dure, was very successful.

27:01

He was an NDP Premier. He was appointed

27:04

by Stephen Harper, you know,

27:05

to be an ambassador.

27:08

But he, you know, in essence, he really was

27:11

kind of like what we would call the Alberta party.

27:14

Let me ask you, Rick, we're talking to Rick Bell, if you're

27:16

just tuning in, and I know we're right up against the clock with

27:18

you. I know you got stuff to do. So it just, you know, we'll

27:20

make this relatively quick. But, you know,

27:22

what does your gut tell you based on not

27:25

just what we've heard from Danielle Smith, but the

27:27

rumblings you're hearing? What are your sources telling

27:29

you about what some of the top priorities

27:31

are going to be? What are we? Daniel Smith, we're

27:34

going to play a clip after we chat with you talking

27:36

about Ottawa, Trudeau's plan, electricity

27:39

rates, the Alberta energy industry. Obviously,

27:41

that'll be a common theme. We'll see how.

27:44

Yeah, she's got to bring in Bill 1, you know, so

27:46

that we won't have tax hikes without

27:48

a referendum.

27:50

Which is a bit of a publicity stunt. I mean, any

27:52

government. But in the end,

27:55

she has to.

27:56

There were people down

27:58

there. I went after I found my column,

28:01

I went down to the Big Four building, and

28:03

there were people there that were very concerned

28:06

from Calgary who thought

28:09

the influence of,

28:12

let's say, take

28:13

back Alberta and others did have

28:16

an effect in Calgary and did reduce

28:19

the number of seats

28:21

that

28:23

they wanted Calgary. So I think there's

28:25

going to be people

28:26

on the more progressive

28:29

conservative side perhaps,

28:31

or the old Kenny side

28:34

that may

28:36

want to see Smith

28:39

sound like she sounded last night. I

28:41

just think it's so funny that now everybody, including

28:43

me, but people are talking and being like, you know, the

28:46

Kenny side, the progressive conservatives.

28:49

I was like, what? It's like, I don't

28:51

know. But

28:53

the reason for that is simple. I

28:56

walked in

28:58

to that event and somebody came up to me

29:01

right away

29:02

and they just went crazy on

29:04

me and talked about the media overlords

29:06

and all sorts of stuff.

29:09

So that

29:11

is a part of the party. Like I said, her original

29:14

strategy was to keep the world, keep the

29:16

world, don't want to

29:20

lose the world base. That was priority

29:22

number one, because that would give her,

29:24

you know, 35 seats or

29:26

more

29:29

going into Calgary.

29:31

It would give her that advantage over the NDP

29:33

going into Calgary.

29:35

So on the one hand, she can't just

29:37

throw all those people overboard, but on the other

29:40

hand,

29:40

she has to address the issue of

29:46

particularly Calgary. You know, some

29:48

I hate to say that I know you're up in Edmonton, but

29:51

no, this is a provincial show. Yeah,

29:53

no, no. But I'm saying the fact they didn't

29:55

win in Edmonton is not shocker on shock

29:57

street. Nobody's surprised.

29:59

No, no.

29:59

And for Ralph Klein to get

30:02

significant love in Edmonton took more

30:04

than one election. So,

30:06

you know, that happened eventually over time.

30:08

He got more seats. Yeah, but I don't even know.

30:10

Calgary, Calgary, come on Calgary,

30:13

the establishment, the cradle

30:15

of establishment conservatism. Calgary,

30:19

I live right across the street from law,

30:21

he'd house.

30:22

I mean, Klein, Redford,

30:26

Prentice, all from Calgary. Yeah.

30:29

And so

30:30

that sort of establishment

30:32

conservatism, you

30:35

know, they're going to want to be heard. That

30:37

was the code. That was the one. And

30:40

I think, I mean, I'm going to say this, I know we're

30:42

getting way ahead,

30:44

but they're going to want

30:45

their influence, their more

30:48

moderate,

30:49

middle of the road conservatism

30:52

to be the dominant sort

30:55

of tone

30:57

as opposed to the

31:00

alternative. Yeah. I was wondering

31:02

how you were going to finish that sentence.

31:06

So I had a bit of a, I had a, I, you know,

31:08

went off spontaneously in yesterday's

31:10

show as I am want to do from time to

31:12

time asking, take back Alberta

31:15

from whom and wouldn't you

31:17

know, the group's founder,

31:19

David Parker reached out and

31:21

said, if you would like to hear my answer

31:24

to that question, simply extend the invitation.

31:27

And I said, well, I sure will, because that's

31:29

what talk shows do. So

31:30

at some point over the next,

31:33

I don't know, three to five episodes of real

31:35

talk. We'll of course, let everybody know when it's coming.

31:37

It'll be one on one me and take back Alberta

31:40

founder, David Parker. Let's talk

31:42

about the influence that take back

31:44

Alberta has on this party. And as they

31:47

claim on this premier,

31:49

I mean, they've infiltrated or let me

31:51

say asserted some control over the party's

31:54

board. They control a lot of the constituency

31:56

associations. How do you see this interesting

31:59

relationship playing?

31:59

out. Danielle Smith and this

32:02

group with, I don't know, what 30,000 members

32:04

take back Alberta.

32:06

Well, you know, you have to, I think

32:08

what

32:09

she has

32:11

to make plain is

32:14

a simple, she has to say this more

32:16

and more often.

32:17

This is a, the UCP,

32:20

let me make myself clear, the UCP

32:23

is a big tent

32:25

mainstream conservative party. Now when

32:27

you have a big tent,

32:29

that big tent can include,

32:31

take back Alberta, that big tent

32:34

can include red Tories. It

32:36

can include both,

32:38

but each side has

32:41

to give something.

32:42

It can't be an absolutist agenda.

32:45

It can't be, we want everything

32:48

we want and if we don't get everything

32:50

we want, there is going to

32:52

be trouble.

32:54

The

32:55

conservatives remained in

32:58

power, creating a one party state

33:00

because they were able to balance off

33:04

different factions. But all

33:06

of them had to put a little water in

33:08

their wine.

33:10

So take back Alberta,

33:13

can have input, but they can't just

33:15

say here is our manifesto, Danielle,

33:18

and this manifesto must be put

33:20

through.

33:21

And I think the fact that Calgary

33:25

wasn't as inviting to Smith as

33:28

it was to Kenny, and

33:30

it shows

33:32

her that she does have

33:35

to settle down the

33:37

Calgary people who are largely

33:39

not, there are a few take back Alberta people

33:41

here too,

33:43

but are not that. So

33:45

I mean everybody, when I covered

33:47

Ralph Klein, you had a wide

33:49

spectrum of people. You had Jim

33:52

Dining, you had Stockwell Day,

33:54

you had Steve West, you had Gary Marr, you

33:56

had a wide range of people, but each

33:58

of them got a big deal. A

34:01

lot of what they wanted, but not everything

34:04

they wanted. So

34:05

I'll be very interested in your interview

34:08

with the head of Take Back Alberta

34:10

to see to what degree

34:13

Take Back Alberta is willing to put a little

34:15

water in their wine.

34:17

Rather than just say, we got her

34:19

in, let's rock and roll.

34:22

Yeah.

34:23

And I think that there can also be a bit of a

34:25

wake up call for people once a

34:27

premier or once a party has won an election.

34:31

I think the amount of time it takes for them to return your

34:33

phone calls could be extended a little bit if

34:35

you know what I mean. They've got some time,

34:37

some breathing room to operate now. Rick,

34:40

it's always a total pleasure to have you on the show. We kept you way

34:42

longer than you said. Oh, no problem. Anytime

34:44

for you, no problem. Awesome, my man. Hey,

34:46

nice job last night on the broadcast. It was good to see you

34:49

there. Thank you. All right. That's

34:51

Rick Bell. You can follow him on Twitter at sunrickbell. And

34:54

of course, you can read his columns in The Calgary Sun. The

34:56

guy's been covering provincial politics for

34:58

a long time and it was some real scoops.

35:00

He was the guy. It has to have been. I

35:02

mean, he referenced it right there. I would imagine one

35:05

of his most read columns in the last

35:07

five years probably when he got that exclusive

35:09

with Danielle Smith. You remember that we had Rick

35:12

on the show talking about it where she basically said, I

35:14

mean, in not so many words, you know,

35:17

we're not as concerned about Calgary. We're not as concerned

35:19

about keeping seats

35:19

in Calgary. How do you feel if you're

35:22

like Tyler Shandrow or how do you feel if you're

35:24

a prominent MP here, cabinet visitor

35:26

out of Calgary right there? But hey, she called the

35:28

strategy. The strategy worked. And now

35:30

you've got a UCP government right

35:32

now as it stands as we're doing this on Tuesday morning

35:35

looks like 49 seats. But of course, that number

35:37

could could change a little bit. And

35:39

along with that, John, will change potentially

35:41

the results of our of our

35:44

whiskey contest, our bourbon contest last

35:46

night at our viewing party right now. Give a shout

35:48

out to political strategist. And

35:51

you know, you've heard Jared Campbell on our group chat roundtable.

35:53

He and Jason Leslie of the

35:55

Alberta Chambers of Commerce right now are

35:58

tied having predicted

35:59

a 49-38 outcome. We've

36:02

got Jake Kubiski, the CEO of Kubi

36:05

Energy, who predicted 50 seats.

36:07

So Jake, I'm sure he'll win the

36:09

bottle of bourbon if that number changes a little bit.

36:11

So a lot of fun last night. How are you holding up? You

36:14

were keeping it moving last night, buddy. I'm a court

36:16

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So we know Daniel Smith is Alberta's

40:11

Premier-elect. We know the United Conservatives

40:13

are going to form government. As

40:15

it stands at this moment, 49

40:19

seats looks like the total, but

40:21

of course that could change. By the time some

40:24

of our podcast audience members are listening

40:26

to this, that number might have been in flux.

40:28

We do know what some of Smith's

40:31

priorities are. We do know what some

40:33

of the plans look like. Dr. Mark Crawford will take

40:35

us there in just a second.

40:37

Here's another little bit of what

40:39

Daniel Smith had to say, not just to

40:42

United Conservative supporters, not just

40:44

to Albertans last night, but to Ottawa

40:46

too. We need

40:47

to come together no matter how we have voted

40:49

to stand shoulder to shoulder against

40:51

soon to be announced Ottawa policies

40:54

that would significantly harm our provincial

40:56

economy.

40:56

Now

41:01

we have been made aware that in the coming

41:04

weeks, Justin Trudeau is planning

41:06

on bringing forward new restrictions on

41:08

electricity generation from natural gas

41:10

that will not only massively increase your

41:12

power bills, but will also endanger

41:14

the integrity and reliability of our

41:16

entire power grid, which we rely

41:19

on during our cold and dark Alberta winters.

41:22

In addition, the Prime Minister is already ready

41:24

to introduce a de facto production

41:27

cap on our oil

41:28

and gas sector that if

41:33

implemented will result in tens of thousands

41:36

of jobs lost, tens of billions

41:39

in lost investment, damage our province's

41:41

fiscal position and bring economic

41:43

hardship to Albertans. Now I've made myself

41:45

clear on this matter to the Prime Minister

41:47

in person and in public, but

41:50

I feel we need to do it again. Canada!

42:00

Canada! Canada! Canada! Canada! Canada! Canada! Canada! Well,

42:09

hopefully the Prime Minister

42:11

and his caucus are watching tonight. Whoo!

42:15

Thank you. But

42:18

let me be clear, this is not

42:21

a road we can afford to go down. If he

42:23

persists, he will be herding Canadians from

42:25

coast to coast, and he will strain the

42:27

patience and goodwill of Albertans

42:30

in an unprecedented

42:30

fashion. Whoo!

42:35

And as premier, I cannot, under any

42:37

circumstances, allow these contemplated

42:39

federal policies to be inflicted upon

42:41

Albertans. I simply can't, and I

42:44

won't.

42:46

To be inflicted. All

42:49

right, so what is this going to look like? How will it

42:51

play out? Dr. Mark Crawford is a professor

42:53

of political science at Athabowski University,

42:55

where he currently teaches courses in Canadian

42:58

government and democratic theory. He's done a ton of work

43:01

in a bunch of different applications, including five

43:03

years at both levels of government as a parliamentary

43:05

intern, a trade policy analyst, a ministerial

43:08

assistant. Really appreciate you making time

43:10

for us this morning, professor. A

43:13

couple of off-the-top observations

43:15

about how it all played

43:16

out last night. Are you surprised at the result?

43:18

Are you surprised at some of the closer races, or

43:21

some of the blowouts for that matter? I

43:26

think we've got you on mute, professor. Want to make sure we

43:28

get there. You are loud and clear. Oh,

43:30

you can hear me now? You're all good. Oh,

43:32

good. Good morning. Yeah,

43:35

well, four months ago, I would have thought that

43:37

the NDP might be cruising to

43:40

victory. And I think, and

43:42

then something happened in

43:45

the middle of the campaign. Janet Brown,

43:47

very reputable pollster

43:51

in Calgary, came out with a new

43:53

poll showing, guess what? UCP

43:56

is 10 points ahead in Calgary, and

43:58

nobody believed it. an outlier and

44:01

it just turned out that she had

44:03

a more careful methodology for

44:05

correcting some of the biases that

44:08

have crept into polling in recent

44:10

years. So from

44:12

the perspective of four months ago, it was kind of

44:15

a surprise, but

44:17

I guess with the benefit

44:20

of hindsight,

44:21

this election is it

44:24

represents one

44:28

gradual step towards the normalization

44:30

of Alberta politics. We

44:33

know that we have a two-party

44:36

system. The

44:39

seat distribution in Calgary is

44:42

fairly evenly split. The

44:46

only problem is that the NDP needed a big win

44:48

and they couldn't get it.

44:50

Do you think as the

44:52

rest of the country takes a look at this

44:54

and they'll say probably not a huge surprise

44:57

that you wouldn't call it a surprise nor an upset

44:59

that a Conservative Party wins a

45:01

provincial election in Alberta, maybe some

45:03

surprise that it wasn't closer with the

45:06

NDP, considering some of the things that I think that

45:08

the NDP had operating in its favor.

45:10

But you talk about kind of a two-party system.

45:14

You know, I hate to say it for friends of mine that

45:16

feel very passionately about the potential of the Alberta

45:18

Party, but I think at this point you say

45:21

you stick a fork in it. We'll see what

45:23

the future looks like for the Alberta Party,

45:25

the Alberta Liberal Party. What does the rest of

45:27

Canada observe based on

45:29

what they saw last night? Predictable

45:31

or maybe a surprise for some folks in

45:34

BC or Ontario or the Maritimes?

45:38

Well, I suppose from

45:40

the perspective of farther

45:43

away, what could be more

45:45

normal, I guess, than a Conservative

45:47

government getting reelected in Alberta

45:51

with a majority government. But

45:54

there was, you know, the polls showed as

45:57

recently as the second week of May, the second week

46:00

week of the election that

46:03

the NDP in most polls was

46:05

ahead. So, you know, that expectation,

46:08

that expectation built, you

46:10

know. So, I think what really

46:12

happened is that Alberta

46:14

is slowly changing

46:17

and some of the polls suggested that it was

46:20

rapidly changing. And

46:22

I

46:24

had a friend say to me

46:26

about Danielle Smith, he's an ardent conservative.

46:29

He said, this is not conservatism,

46:32

this is populism, which

46:35

I thought was kind of an interesting observation.

46:37

Now we talk about the influence. I was just chatting

46:39

about it with Rick Bell, obviously the influence that

46:42

that take back Alberta, a search to our

46:44

claims to have on the Premier and

46:46

on the party.

46:49

How do you expect the tone to change, if

46:51

at all,

46:52

from Danielle Smith and from the United Conservatives?

46:55

You do acknowledge that you've

46:57

left some seats on the table and I

46:59

think it's fair to say at least at a high level

47:01

that that probably represents an opportunity

47:04

to win back the more moderates.

47:08

Would you agree and do you think that we'll see

47:10

efforts in that direction? What does the future look

47:12

like, the connection with this group take back

47:14

Alberta?

47:16

Well, that's the big question is if

47:18

the moderate conservatives, well about 5% of the electorate

47:22

that turned out in the last election stayed

47:24

home. We had a slight drop in the turnout.

47:27

So, that explains where some of those moderate PCs

47:30

went. In fact, there was a leading conservative

47:33

commentator, Ken Besenkul. I don't know if you've

47:35

heard of him. He actually was the

47:38

official stay at home person, he

47:40

said, because he believes in the rule of law and

47:42

these kind of traditional values. Couldn't

47:44

bring himself to support Danielle Smith. Couldn't

47:47

vote NDP. So, he said, let's stay at home. But

47:51

yeah, I mean, I think

47:53

there's a real question there because I think Smith

47:55

and I think she showed in her talk

47:58

last night, she really is.

47:59

a kind of American style populist

48:03

politician. And I

48:05

think one reason this, besides the

48:07

energy and climate issues and

48:09

the federalism issues that are gonna be

48:11

raised

48:12

by this election is that it's

48:15

the closest thing to an American style polarization

48:18

in Canada is

48:22

right here

48:23

in this province. And you

48:26

saw

48:28

her kind of looseness with the facts,

48:32

the fact checking

48:34

of her debate performance and

48:39

her kind of a relaxed attitude towards

48:42

rule of law, procedures,

48:45

conflict of interest, that sort of thing. But

48:48

also when it came time

48:50

to

48:51

compete with the NDP

48:53

in terms of spending promises and things, she

48:56

said, I think one of her quotes was, I'll

49:00

be the most compassionate conservative that

49:03

Alberta has ever seen. So she's having

49:05

it both ways, kind of pleasing the

49:07

populist base. But

49:09

a part of populism is a kind of relaxed attitude

49:13

towards economics and fiscal restraint too.

49:16

And the question is, and I

49:18

think that the chickens could

49:21

come home to roost, of course, if oil prices drop

49:24

and

49:27

there's a sudden downturn

49:31

in the economy, like what's

49:34

going to happen then?

49:37

I was just gonna say that's significant. I mean, people

49:39

gotta look at the Alberta budgets

49:41

that you see are based, I mean, I know that this might be something

49:44

obvious to point out, but they're based on

49:46

a forecast of where oil prices

49:48

are gonna be through the term of the tenure, let's

49:50

say of that budget at least. And

49:53

if it's not there, and if there's

49:55

a significant drop, then there are significant,

49:57

like potentially multi-billion dollar.

49:59

impacts on the government's bottom

50:02

line. Now, of course, the Alberta government recently has been

50:04

in a surplus position, which makes it, it gives

50:06

you a little bit more of a cushion there as

50:08

a leader or a finance minister, but of course that

50:11

is a significant issue at play. The

50:13

relationship here, Daniel Smith did

50:15

earn, I don't know. I mean, I think when people

50:18

saw that, you know, the party was announcing there's going to be these

50:20

big endorsements. And yes, I mean,

50:22

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, sure, he was a prime minister

50:25

for a decade. I mean, I guess, but like, I don't

50:27

think anyone's blown away that a conservative

50:29

prime minister would endorse

50:29

a conservative premier, but I digress.

50:32

Pierre Poliev put it out there as well, endorsing

50:35

Daniel Smith. Some people, I think, are wondering

50:37

what that relationship might look

50:40

like. Smith now walking on the national

50:42

stage with maybe a bit more swagger. People

50:44

before would say, wow, she won the party leadership,

50:46

but she didn't win a general election. Now

50:49

she has. And that changes things a little

50:51

bit, I think, when it comes to the confidence that a

50:53

provincial leader, that a premier has. Poliev

50:56

meantime has been, I mean, subtly

50:59

maybe, but dialing

51:01

things back a little bit, which to

51:03

me signifies that he's beginning

51:06

to court the urban

51:08

potential conservative bases

51:10

across the country. You wonder

51:12

if, you know, complete alignment with

51:15

Smith in a province where he doesn't exactly have

51:17

to work that hard to earn votes, let's

51:19

be honest, could be a bit of a liability

51:22

elsewhere. What

51:23

do you think that relationship is going to look like? Pierre

51:25

Smith and the leader of the federal opposition,

51:27

Poliev?

51:29

Well, yes, Smith, of course, clearly

51:31

indicated last night and it is her

51:33

true disposition to just

51:36

run hard against Ottawa

51:39

and to pursue what could be

51:41

called a quasi-soberantist agenda.

51:44

She's really attracted to this

51:46

idea, which is popular in certain conservative

51:49

circles of why not

51:52

take some of the latitude that supported Quebec

51:55

and get our own pension scheme and

51:57

our, you know, and.

52:00

our own police force

52:02

and everything like that. So

52:06

yeah, and by running so hard

52:08

against Trudeau and

52:13

whatever its climate change agenda is.

52:15

Now, what she calls a de facto

52:18

production cap, I guess she's

52:20

just referring to an emissions cap or

52:22

compliance with international targets.

52:27

Yeah, international treaty obligations,

52:29

arguably. You know,

52:32

as the emissions caps

52:34

and so forth, you know, things

52:37

that are fairly popular or at least accepted

52:39

in the rest of the country, she's gonna be running hard

52:41

against.

52:43

And that could

52:45

hurt Pierre-Paul Liev in Greater

52:48

Toronto, you know,

52:50

for example, or Quebec, for example,

52:53

where he needs, even though he's ahead and

52:57

consistently ahead in the polls, he's gonna have

52:59

to make some breakthrough in the GTA

53:02

and he's gonna have to get a certain minimum number of seats

53:04

in Quebec. And I

53:06

think, you know, the more that Daniel Smith

53:09

succeeds in

53:12

making an enemy of Trudeau over energy

53:14

and climate issues for a domestic

53:17

constituency, I

53:19

think, as you, I think implied

53:22

that could make Folliev's path

53:24

to victory a

53:26

little bit narrower. So, yeah.

53:29

Really appreciate your time, Mark. We

53:31

should let the folks know that you're

53:33

joining us from the beautiful pocket

53:35

of Canada, Vailmont, BC. Absolutely

53:38

stunning, just past Jasper, which means

53:40

that you woke up an hour earlier, right? I don't think they're

53:42

on mountain time, right? So, sure appreciate you

53:44

doing it. I

53:47

can't let you go without asking, I mean, Rick

53:49

Bell suggests that now is the time for the NDs

53:52

to soul search. And,

53:54

you know, you have to know, I mean, Rachel Notley, obviously

53:57

would have loved to serve as Alberta's premier

53:59

again.

53:59

there will start now to be questions. I mean,

54:02

I feel like, you know, we got to give it a cooling off

54:04

period before we start asking her directly. But

54:07

everybody's going to want to know how does she

54:10

perceive her role within the party over the next

54:12

while? What's her plan? Maybe she's having

54:14

those conversations over croissants and coffee

54:16

this morning. I don't know. What would you forecast?

54:19

What does the future look like? Not just for Rachel Notley,

54:21

but for the new Democrats that I

54:23

think at this point are going to be start, you know, I mean, they're

54:25

going to start strategizing, you know, with

54:28

regards to the message they're sending to Alberta. This

54:30

is what this party is all about. This is how

54:32

this party will oppose or show up

54:34

in the legislature. What do you expect to see

54:37

from the new Democrats?

54:39

Well, they're going to try and consolidate

54:42

their gains in Calgary outside

54:45

of Edmonton. I

54:47

think that Rachel Notley was wise

54:49

not to not to resign last

54:51

night. I think she's still an asset to the party.

54:54

And we'll see where they're at two

54:57

years from now when it comes time

54:59

for her to actually decide whether

55:01

to step down, for example, or it's

55:04

going to give the new members that have been

55:06

elected

55:07

to the legislature a chance to

55:09

show their stuff. So possibly a

55:12

leadership successor could be better

55:15

defined.

55:16

That's the one. The other thing.

55:20

If if things get things

55:22

go south with the economy and

55:25

the some of the problems, the contradictions

55:28

of

55:29

this populist conservatism,

55:31

which has tied us to the energy

55:33

revenue roller coaster even more tightly

55:35

by saying you have to have a plebiscite to

55:37

raise taxes, you

55:40

know, are they going to be able to define

55:43

an economic alternative rather

55:45

than running away from the economy as

55:47

an issue and just focusing on personality?

55:50

And, you

55:52

know, so that's

55:54

certainly one aspect of the soul searching

55:57

that they need to do.

55:58

And, you know, they had an interesting. investing fiscal

56:01

platform. They commissioned Todd Hirsch

56:04

from, you might wanna get him on as a guest

56:07

from ATB. But

56:09

so if Daniel Smith has

56:12

painted herself into a fiscal corner or

56:14

an economic corner, and because

56:17

of her populist compassionate

56:19

promises and her

56:22

commitment to low taxes,

56:25

well then perhaps the

56:27

NDP can position

56:29

itself as an actual economic

56:31

alternative.

56:31

And

56:34

also we'll see what their personal

56:36

approval ratings are, not

56:38

Lee and Smith two years from

56:40

now. That'll be pretty interesting. It will be. That's

56:43

something we'll certainly be keeping an eye on. Really appreciate

56:45

you making time for us today, sharing your insights.

56:48

And of course, like we said, waking up early

56:50

the morning after an election when the results were coming

56:52

in as painfully slow as

56:55

they were means that much

56:57

more. Nice to see your face.

56:59

Yeah, nice to see you. Nice to talk. Thanks.

57:01

Yeah, you got it. That's Dr. Mark Crawford, professor

57:05

of political science at Athabasca

57:08

University.

57:09

You can let us know what you make of what you're

57:12

hearing here on the show today. Obviously there are

57:14

a million different angles of approach

57:16

to this. I checked my email inbox

57:18

this morning and it was like, I know that there's, you know, a

57:20

lot of the real talkers are well aware. Talkatryongesperson.com

57:24

is where you can send us your thoughts and we got

57:26

a whole bunch of them. And we're going to make some time through

57:28

this week to read your emails. This

57:30

one from Ron, for example, he says, is

57:32

it too early,

57:34

Jespo, to dissect what went wrong

57:37

with the NDP?

57:38

And then he goes, all right, so here it goes. So Ron

57:41

knows he can go for it. He says, I think that the NDP

57:43

spent so much of the pre-campaign

57:46

period attacking Daniel Smith with

57:48

not much in the way of inspirational

57:50

counter-messaging. He

57:53

says there was counter-messaging, but it certainly didn't land as inspirational.

57:56

He says there's got to be more to the NDP than just

57:59

UCP bad.

57:59

were good.

58:01

Ron says most people in Alberta I think felt the

58:03

same way. Every single vote was a choice between

58:05

bad or less bad.

58:08

He says I'll let you and the audience decide

58:10

which is which, but I want to be inspired,

58:12

says Ron. I want to experience hope in

58:15

politics, new possibilities, not the same

58:17

stale binary choice between just

58:20

two options. He says I also think

58:22

this is a damning condemnation of the messaging

58:24

surrounding the other guys, you know, outside of the

58:26

machinery of the NDP or the

58:28

UCP juggernauts in Alberta, there

58:31

aren't a lot of good options. And this election

58:33

cycle, it could be akin to throwing

58:35

your vote away. This is what we heard from

58:37

Jordan

58:38

Wilkie. That's the battle with the Greens, with

58:40

the Alberta Party. They got to convince people that it's

58:42

not a wasted vote, right?

58:45

He says the voter enthusiasm, this is Ron again,

58:47

just wasn't there in this election and it absolutely

58:49

showed in the way that we got another four years of the United

58:52

Conservatives. Ron says I attend

58:54

McEwen University. Shout out

58:56

to McEwen. He says on the advanced polling days, I just

58:58

didn't see a whole lot of people showing up to vote, just

59:00

a spattering here and there, which

59:03

is interesting because it was record setting turnout

59:05

at the advanced polls. But I'm assuming

59:07

at McEwen

59:08

University, it's fair to suggest that

59:10

you might have a younger demographic. Maybe

59:12

the younger voters didn't show up. Common

59:14

theme, state the obvious, fill it

59:16

in here, right?

59:18

Ron says, I don't know, 2015 might have been a fluke.

59:20

A resounding rejection, though, of the staleness

59:23

of the progressive conservatives. I'm just not

59:25

sure how the NDP wins again in Alberta

59:27

unless they either adopt new messaging or

59:29

get an entirely new leader.

59:32

I don't know if not Lee was the issue.

59:34

I don't know if not Lee was the problem.

59:37

Although a new leadership race, I mean, it can infuse

59:40

fundraising. This is me talking, not Ron. It can

59:42

infuse awareness and excitement within

59:44

a party if they do it at the right time, you know,

59:47

maybe two years out from an election. Maybe

59:49

you give the new leader time to get

59:51

her legs under her.

59:54

Yeah, that's what I said.

59:58

Ron says, for the record, I did.

59:59

I didn't vote UCP, I voted NDP,

1:00:02

but it was an unenthusiastic vote

1:00:04

for the alternative to the United Conservatives

1:00:07

that more than a vote for anything meaningful.

1:00:10

He says, by the way, I listened to Adler on your show on Monday

1:00:13

and I actually said to myself, give it a rest, Charles.

1:00:16

He says, the UCP aren't Nazis.

1:00:18

Adler never said that, but he did talk, he did compare

1:00:21

Take Back Alberta to the Taliban. He did.

1:00:23

Which I think a lot of people went, whoa. And just for

1:00:26

our listener, I often

1:00:27

tell Charles to give it a rest. We'll

1:00:31

say that to his face next Monday. Ron

1:00:33

says there are enough grownups in the room

1:00:35

to ensure that Take Back Alberta doesn't turn

1:00:38

Alberta into Gilead from the Handmaid's

1:00:40

Tale. Among the many moments on

1:00:42

Monday's show, that was where my eyes rolled so

1:00:44

hard, they almost popped out of my head. Ron, don't hurt

1:00:46

yourself. He believes, says

1:00:48

Ron, pragmatism has been dead in Alberta politics

1:00:51

and elsewhere for a long time, signed

1:00:53

a tired and frustrated follower

1:00:55

of Alberta politics who is praying for some sensible

1:00:58

political discourse for once.

1:01:01

That from Ron. Thanks for taking the

1:01:03

time. I hope it helped you sleep last night. I wonder

1:01:05

if those early votes even mattered though, because

1:01:07

I'm looking at, this is like the unofficial total

1:01:10

numbers, but 2.8

1:01:11

registered voters, 2.8

1:01:13

million. And it looks like the turnout

1:01:15

was like around 63%. So

1:01:18

I mean, I think the biggest we had ever was what, like 67%? Yeah,

1:01:21

turnout here was down about 5% from 2019. So

1:01:24

I mean, everyone thought, oh, you

1:01:26

know, it's gonna be record turnout because of the early votes, but

1:01:28

it looks like we had less voters than the

1:01:30

last election. Oh, 5% down. And that

1:01:32

might be just because you didn't have a motivated

1:01:35

vote. Like, so, and Rick was talking about

1:01:37

this, like what was the ballot box question? You

1:01:39

know, is Jason Kenny sold it in 2019, a

1:01:41

referendum on the carbon tax? This one, probably

1:01:44

a referendum

1:01:44

on Danielle Smith. That's probably how

1:01:46

history will look back on the 2023 election. And

1:01:49

if you don't have people that feel super strong

1:01:52

about something where they absolutely have to

1:01:54

show up. And in this case,

1:01:56

NDP strategists this morning, you know,

1:01:58

those that were in the war room will be going,

1:01:59

How did we not quite I mean

1:02:02

it's just like I think we know I think

1:02:05

Rick Bell said or was it our first guest

1:02:07

Sarah Hamilton maybe like shot on

1:02:09

an empty net Yeah, she was voting Peter

1:02:12

McKay there I mean there was so many opportunities in

1:02:14

that debate where you know you're sitting there

1:02:16

and saying why didn't you just go a little? Harder

1:02:18

there,

1:02:19

which is what Danielle's? Perfect at

1:02:21

doing and there were people here last night We were

1:02:23

chatting with at the party who we were I

1:02:25

know it's not the same comparison You know the states Trump

1:02:28

whatever but same thing like sensationalism

1:02:30

Saying those crazy things to get in

1:02:33

but

1:02:34

you know this guest was also saying I think she's

1:02:36

gonna pull back now that she Officially

1:02:38

you know has power same way Trump did Trump

1:02:40

went in and said he was gonna drain the swamp and

1:02:43

smaller government and his Government he made

1:02:45

government actually everybody realized that it

1:02:47

was just Trump is the ultimate swamp donkey

1:02:49

So drain the swamp I know you can't

1:02:51

compare the two, but I think it's the same thing You know all

1:02:53

this rhetoric all these sensational things now She's

1:02:55

gonna kind of pull back and you know well I

1:02:58

mean you think if you want some stability and

1:03:00

I think that the average Albert she probably wants

1:03:02

stability and stability

1:03:04

is also the key to political Survival

1:03:06

for a lot of people as the tail of the tape goes Mark

1:03:08

Doran on the live chat says I think just the NDP

1:03:10

blew It period people like me says

1:03:12

mark Advised them to go after

1:03:15

the rural vote good talk about land rights

1:03:17

talk about the r-star program They

1:03:20

decided not to do so it

1:03:22

was theirs to lose and they lost it

1:03:24

that from mark Ken says neither party had

1:03:26

a plan

1:03:27

And I know now that like the partisan

1:03:30

supporters will take issue with Ken's comment I

1:03:32

know it but Ken says neither party had a

1:03:34

plan for either our health care issues or for

1:03:36

revenue challenges going forward You know

1:03:38

right now the next budget would be in deficit

1:03:41

for either party

1:03:42

that from Ken Tracy says things are not

1:03:44

bad enough yet

1:03:45

There's a disconnect between programs and

1:03:48

services

1:03:49

Politics

1:03:50

and here's another thing if right

1:03:53

now

1:03:53

You're sitting here waiting for the NDP's

1:03:56

next opportunity to go at

1:03:58

Daniel Smith in the

1:03:59

conservatives ultimately

1:04:02

What we're all kind of sort of talking about is

1:04:04

big blunders

1:04:06

failures Things blowing

1:04:08

up in the government's face proof

1:04:10

that a programmer idea can't work,

1:04:13

you know fiscal Mismanagement

1:04:15

and ultimately who does that hurt?

1:04:18

It's a rhetorical question. It's an obvious

1:04:20

question Nobody wants to cheer against the

1:04:22

province the province is its citizens

1:04:24

the citizens. Are you?

1:04:26

real talkers We're

1:04:28

gonna keep talking about this stuff. We're gonna still

1:04:31

work to figure out exactly what this means

1:04:33

Obviously, we hope to speak with the premier elect

1:04:35

over the next number of days as well as

1:04:38

Rachel Notley who will lead Alberta's official

1:04:40

opposition into the next legislative session

1:04:43

and we're gonna be talking to experts across Industry

1:04:46

we'll talk to business leaders. We'll talk to community

1:04:48

leaders. I see chatter right

1:04:50

now in the chat Jillian one of our Regular

1:04:53

contributors to the live chat so cool to have Jillian

1:04:55

here last night She was finally able to collect

1:04:58

on her winnings as an author of an email of the

1:05:00

month Yeah, I said don't you dare walk out of here

1:05:02

without a real talk coffee mug So we made

1:05:04

sure she had her coffee mug that she goes Compassionate

1:05:07

conservatism. Okay. She says right

1:05:09

now is basically every school across the province

1:05:11

is trying to strategize and figure out what

1:05:13

it's gonna Do with fewer staff in a few months

1:05:15

from now than they've got right now some

1:05:17

people Educators healthcare workers

1:05:19

are gonna want to know what is the next number of years

1:05:22

gonna look like under this government? These

1:05:24

are real issues real people real

1:05:26

public services. These are the stories

1:05:28

we will continue to follow We thank you

1:05:30

so much for being a part of today's episode

1:05:33

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1:05:35

would benefit from hearing these conversations

1:05:37

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1:05:39

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1:05:42

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1:05:45

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1:05:47

most to you We want to know what the

1:05:49

conversations are sounding like in your workplace

1:05:52

this morning or on the sidelines at the

1:05:54

soccer game How are you processing

1:05:56

the results? You can send

1:05:58

us an email anytime to talk at Ryan Justin Find

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us on Twitter, the hashtag Real Talk

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1:06:06

see you then.

1:06:17

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