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Welcome

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to the special Real Vision Daily Briefing, which

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is the generalized, Raoul, I don't

0:52

know what the fuck I'm doing.

0:54

Today, because it's three o'clock in

0:56

the afternoon, I'm a civilized Brit, I've got

0:58

a nice cup of Earl Grey tea with some almond milk,

1:00

as opposed to my usual drinks because of the time

1:03

zone difference, I'm not starting drinking at this time or

1:06

my wife will kill me.

1:09

You guys who are watching this on YouTube,

1:11

firstly, if you haven't liked or subscribed

1:14

to the channel, then you just might as well go away because you're

1:16

not of any benefit to any of us. If

1:18

not, please feel free to press that button.

1:22

Also, if you want to ask questions, you have to do it on the

1:24

Real Vision platform. I'm not answering them from

1:26

YouTube, but it's free to join. Just go to realvision.com

1:29

forward slash daily hyphen briefing.

1:31

The link's down below on the YouTube channel. You

1:34

can just sign up for the daily

1:36

briefing there, just pop your email in, you can ask questions.

1:39

I'm happy to ask as

1:41

many as I can. How are we going to do this? I'm

1:43

going to start with what's on my mind. Give

1:45

you a general data dump of what

1:47

I'm thinking about.

1:49

Obviously, those of you in pro macro

1:51

and global macro investor, that's

1:54

where all my deep thinking goes. If

1:56

you ever want more

1:57

of that, I urge you to go to Real

1:59

Vision.

2:00

Pro macro, I think there's a lot of important

2:02

work that I'm doing right now some of the best work I've done

2:04

in my life. I've just done in real bit in global

2:06

macro investor Okay, so

2:08

what's on my mind right now? The first thing on

2:10

my mind is liquidity

2:13

You saw my interview with Mike howl it

2:15

was a very important interview It's building on what I wrote

2:17

in GMI called the everything code and

2:20

it's about liquidity why liquidity

2:22

matters Where it's going

2:24

where we are right now where it's going and

2:27

I think I'm able to forecast liquidity out

2:29

for about 18 months which

2:31

May mean and we'll have to wait and see

2:34

that that means I can forecast asset

2:36

prices going at 18 months It's a kind of

2:38

ludicrous idea to think that I could do that

2:41

But that's what the everything code seems to suggest

2:43

and there's a huge huge article

2:45

I wrote in GMI about this but just to give

2:47

you guys an essence of what I'm talking about so

2:50

Brian if you can pull up the first chart

2:52

and

2:53

This is the chart of the

2:55

Fed balance sheet against the NASDAQ. You're all aware

2:58

of this This is my thesis that debasement

3:00

of currency is

3:02

The driving the denominator

3:04

lower so every time the Fed print

3:07

the stock market goes up in Kind

3:10

of nominal terms,

3:12

but when you actually debase it by the balance sheet,

3:14

it doesn't go up as much So if I debase

3:16

the S&P 500 by the Fed balance

3:18

sheet, I divide one by the other this

3:20

be 500 has gone nowhere since

3:23

Virtually nowhere since about 2008 when they started

3:26

the debasement of currency by quantitative easing

3:29

Gold has actually given a negative

3:31

return over that period of time

3:33

Real estate is marginally

3:35

negative, but most people use leverage and real estate. It's

3:37

not a fair comparison But the NASDAQ

3:39

has done particularly well in crypto that I've mentioned before

3:43

So that chart shows

3:46

you the relationship now, it's not

3:48

perfect

3:49

But I think the Fed balance sheet grows

3:51

and I put some of my target on here that it goes

3:53

out to Potentially 12 trillion

3:56

dollars which might given a NASDAQ

3:58

target of about 25

3:59

which is ludicrous over

4:02

the next 18 months or so.

4:04

Don't fixate on the target, fixate on

4:07

the chart, but the second chart is the

4:09

more important chart. So if you can bring the next

4:11

one up, Brian, this is actually

4:14

global liquidity. And now look

4:16

at that fit. That fit is staggering.

4:20

That fit is so good, you

4:22

can't argue that there

4:24

is not a very, very close ongoing

4:27

relationship. And anybody who says, well,

4:29

correlation is not causation,

4:31

listen, you're missing the whole point.

4:34

Tied in with global liquidity is

4:36

equity markets.

4:38

Now, when you say, oh, well,

4:40

they print money and therefore money flows into

4:42

stocks, is simply not provable

4:45

by the volumes in stock markets.

4:48

What actually happens is the Venezuelan

4:50

situation where you debase the currency in the stock

4:53

market automatically adjusting price.

4:55

And that's a phenomenon that you see when there's excess

4:58

supply of money around. And you see

5:00

it even in your neighborhood, you saw the

5:02

houses didn't trade at this price,

5:05

this price, this price. They went from here to here

5:07

after the printing. That was the change

5:09

of the valuation of house prices based

5:12

on the redenomination of assets.

5:15

So NASDAQ and global liquidity,

5:17

now, the GMI Global Liquidity

5:19

Index is

5:20

a combination of the G5 Central Bank

5:23

balance sheets plus money supply and

5:25

other measures. And it's staggeringly

5:27

good.

5:28

Now, so therefore, if

5:31

this is the key driver of asset prices,

5:34

then

5:34

all we need to know is what's happening to liquidity.

5:36

So the next chart reveals a

5:38

bit more about it, which is the

5:41

chart of the year-on-year rate of change of that global

5:43

liquidity index. So Brian, if you could pull

5:45

up the next chart.

5:47

So you can see global

5:49

liquidity came sharply lower that

5:52

brought all financial markets down,

5:54

the NASDAQ being highly correlated and

5:56

a leverage play came

5:59

down more and...

5:59

crypto, which is even more a leverage

6:02

play on liquidity plus the adoption curve

6:05

as is NASDAQ because technology

6:07

adoption is massive right now.

6:09

They came down a lot, but as

6:12

that turned so did markets turn. This

6:14

is where people are scratching their heads. I don't believe

6:16

it. The market should be going lower. Can't you see there's a recession

6:18

coming? Oh my God. Can't you see the earnings

6:21

are coming lower? Yes, yes, yes.

6:23

The market knows it all in advance and

6:25

it already is pricing. I've put that out many

6:27

times both on Twitter and here on

6:29

Real Vision

6:30

that the markets are forward looking

6:33

and there is this up pick in liquidity

6:36

was actually forecast by our GMI

6:38

indicator, our financial conditions indicator back

6:41

in March of last year

6:43

showing that we would start bottoming and

6:45

coming up from this level.

6:47

The economy will follow suit.

6:49

We will have a, we're

6:52

probably in a recession now and then

6:54

we'll have the kind of final stages

6:57

of the bottom of the cycle

6:59

and then it claws its way back up again and doesn't

7:01

become positive. Let's say till the end

7:03

of the year where GDP growth

7:06

is positive again,

7:07

but we'll have unemployment saying very

7:09

sticky and prices coming lower,

7:12

et cetera. And again, I'm not going to go through my whole macro thesis

7:14

here. This is a daily briefing and

7:16

what's on my mind and not my whole philosophy

7:19

on life, the universe and everything, but

7:21

liquidity is picking up, markets picking up and

7:23

if liquidity picks up further, whether the banking

7:26

situation changes, the regional

7:28

banks are still on their knees. So

7:30

I still think that that news flow gets

7:32

worse and the Federal Reserve end up doing something.

7:35

If not, the economy is going to get worse. The longer they keep

7:37

rates up, the more probability is they have to cut rates

7:39

rapidly later. The market picks this up.

7:42

And so liquidity is driving everything. Watch the

7:44

Mike Howell interview on Real Vision from, I

7:46

think it was yesterday, incredibly important

7:48

interview.

7:49

The final chart is just to show this

7:52

correlation another way. This is the S&P 500

7:55

against the G5 central bank balance

7:57

sheets.

7:58

And this shows that the

8:00

This is a kind of a plot chart

8:02

to show correlations.

8:03

And we've got a correlation of 97%.

8:09

So there is no argument liquidity

8:12

is the key driver. You can argue against it.

8:14

You may hate it, but it is what

8:16

it is. So once you understand liquidity

8:18

is everything, you stop worrying

8:21

about all of the things that you think

8:23

should work as a model.

8:24

Liquidity drives everything,

8:26

not your model, not valuations, not anything

8:29

else. It's all irrelevant. And

8:31

it took me a while to understand that this were even believe

8:33

in it. But now I've seen it. I can't see it in

8:35

that everything code are right in global macro investor, which

8:40

I

8:41

won't be really sharing publicly for quite some

8:43

time. I think

8:45

is the real answer to all of this. So liquidity,

8:50

that's what's driving markets. Liquidity, as

8:52

we know from the Fed balance sheet and others is not accelerating

8:55

right now. We had an acceleration, the markets accelerated.

8:57

It's now pausing, the markets are pausing and this

8:59

will go on. Now there's a bit of variability

9:01

around it in general.

9:03

My view is the central bank balance sheet goes out to

9:05

about 12 trillion in the US. That

9:07

takes all assets with it over time. NASDAQ,

9:10

crypto do better. The NASDAQ does

9:12

well. Crypto does ludicrously

9:14

well. And that's how it always is with

9:17

liquidity and these network adoption models. The

9:19

S&P does fine. It does pretty much. I

9:21

think the S&P does 2X

9:24

what the balance sheet does in percent. So the balance sheet

9:26

fell about 15% and

9:29

the stock market fell 30%. It's

9:31

that kind of relationship with the S&P. The NASDAQ's

9:33

got a multiplier effect and crypto's got a multiplier

9:36

effect on it, which is why I'm so bullish on those

9:38

two right now based on my liquidity

9:40

framework.

9:42

Okay, what else on my mind? Crypto,

9:44

obviously, crypto's always on my mind.

9:46

It's been doing phenomenally well based

9:48

on liquidity. Bottomed exactly as

9:50

we saw, as we saw global

9:53

M2 turning, that was my signal into

9:56

that whole of June when

9:58

Luna collapsed and then...

9:59

The second hellhole of

10:02

the FTX collapse, which ETH didn't

10:04

take out the low, it bottomed in June,

10:06

but Bitcoin and others bottomed in

10:08

the October period, which I tweeted

10:11

out about and talked about in Real Vision, which I thought was the low

10:13

of the market. October is the bear market

10:15

killer,

10:16

and it seemed to have done its job

10:18

this time around too. So I'm very positive

10:21

overall. Positive

10:24

on crypto, been positive on crypto all year. I

10:27

was buying in June. I bought in October,

10:29

bought in January. And just looking down the list

10:31

of how assets have performed this year, Bitcoin's

10:34

up 80%, ETH up 75%, Solana up 156%, which was

10:36

one of my key smaller bets.

10:42

And then other markets that have done particularly

10:44

well, Carbon, which

10:47

is another one of my bets, is up about 12%. And

10:50

if I look at equity markets,

10:52

S&P is up 8,

10:54

NASDAQ is up 20,

10:56

making to my point, my exponential age

10:58

basket of more kind of growth and technology

11:01

is up at 33%.

11:03

So you can see the markets already bifurcating.

11:05

This is exactly what happened in 2019 after the Fed pivot in 2018. The

11:10

Fed are going to pause very soon or have pause.

11:12

I think they probably pause or should certainly pause.

11:15

And we'll see

11:16

this continued acceleration until

11:19

liquidity slows down at some point.

11:22

And then we'll have pauses in the market. We

11:24

may even have pullbacks if liquidity comes back

11:26

somewhat, which I don't really see.

11:28

And then we'll see acceleration as we start

11:30

hitting the recession and the unemployment side of

11:32

the equation, which comes later when

11:35

the real money printing and rate

11:37

cutting really starts. So

11:39

that's crypto overall.

11:40

Crypto regulations, we've seen Gary Gensler today,

11:43

Tolt Shit Show being

11:45

questioned about is ETH a security? All

11:47

of this stuff refuses to say anything. I

11:50

think the questions asked were pretty right is why

11:52

can you not give guidance to people? Do you want to drive

11:54

away innovation

11:56

from the United States? And that is what I've been

11:59

talking about for a while. about on Daily Briefing, I've

12:01

talked about Unreal Vision, I've talked about on Twitter, is

12:04

I think the UK is almost

12:07

uniquely positioned to take

12:09

a lot of the crypto businesses.

12:11

We saw Brian Armstrong from Coinbase over

12:13

in the UK talking to the government and

12:16

that is not the only organisation that's been over there.

12:18

And you see we've seen this before. England

12:21

has one great trick.

12:23

It has an incredible

12:25

financial system,

12:27

democracy

12:28

and they speak the English language

12:30

and they have great trade linkages with

12:33

the entire world. Hey everyone,

12:35

we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word

12:37

from our partners. We'll be right back with

12:39

more of the day's top analysis on

12:41

the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

12:48

So when the US stumbles,

12:51

in particular in financial markets, the

12:53

UK picks up the slack and does something called

12:56

regulatory arbitrage.

12:58

It happened really predominantly

13:01

first when the US came off

13:03

the gold standard and had capital controls

13:06

because they wanted to limit the flow of dollars

13:08

in this new world.

13:09

The foreign exchange markets became

13:12

the new market in town because before that everything

13:14

was pegged to gold

13:15

and the UK captured that market, became

13:17

the largest market the world had ever seen.

13:21

Then the next phase was the US restricted

13:23

bank lending or lending to foreign counterparts

13:26

and the UK picked that up and developed

13:29

something called the Eurodollar market which you've heard from

13:31

everybody from Jeff Snyder to myself talking about.

13:34

The Eurodollar market is the offshore lending of

13:36

dollars. It is the largest

13:38

lending market on earth and is gigantic.

13:42

Yeah, hundreds of trillions

13:44

of dollars. The FX market

13:46

trades trillions of dollars every day and

13:49

then after that came another little

13:51

trick from the UK which was they

13:55

saw that the US bank regs didn't

13:58

allow for the right the use

14:00

of capital in derivatives in an efficient way,

14:02

so it was impossible for US banks to get involved

14:05

in derivative markets. So the UK

14:07

changed their banking rules.

14:08

And they changed their banking rules over something

14:11

called Big Bang.

14:12

The Europeans followed suit and the entire

14:14

derivative market outside of the futures market.

14:16

So this is we talk about the really big markets, the

14:18

swaps, the OTC markets all went

14:20

to the UK, where the UK became the epicenter

14:23

of everything.

14:24

All the US banks at this stage over

14:26

the 90s and 2000s after Big Bang,

14:28

which was the deregulation of the banking industry in

14:30

the UK,

14:32

everybody moved to the UK to set up

14:34

business. So Goldman's

14:36

main office, London,

14:38

JP Morgan's main office, London, Morgan

14:40

Stanley's main office, London,

14:42

Merrill's main office, London,

14:44

Credit Swiss, London, sock

14:46

gen, London, Paribas, London,

14:48

HSBC, London, everybody went to London,

14:51

because that was the center of the global financial markets.

14:54

That changed after Brexit and changed

14:56

after the Basel three agreements on

14:59

regulatory use of capital

15:01

within the banking system. But

15:03

here we are again, there's a trillion dollar industry

15:05

called crypto, it has been $3 trillion

15:07

at peak, this is not a small industry.

15:10

And most people projected to grow to, let's

15:14

say 10 trillion would be gold. Now

15:17

gold is based in London as well, regulatory

15:19

arbitrage. And then if you

15:22

look at other major asset markets, they're 100

15:24

trillion plus. And

15:27

stuff like the derivative markets like

15:29

quadrillion dollars.

15:32

So the UK is looking at this thinking, okay, we

15:34

need a relevancy in this world, we lost most

15:36

of it because of our divorce from Europe

15:38

and then having to renegotiate trade agreements with every

15:40

country in the world, because we didn't have the European agreements, all

15:43

of this, and also the loss of manufacturing

15:46

in the UK, and the loss of the financial industry.

15:48

So here is the UK's gift, and

15:50

the UK have taken it. The last two

15:53

or three governments have said, we want to embrace

15:55

crypto, and they're setting up

15:57

their stall for very sensible

15:59

regulation. What are the key

16:01

ones is stable coins. They say we want to

16:03

be the center of stable coins. Why? Stable

16:06

coins are just tokenized euro dollars. Once

16:08

you understand that, you understand how big

16:10

stable coins are.

16:12

It's the euro dollar system, but for individuals,

16:14

because you can tokenize it. So it gives anybody access

16:17

to dollars, whether you're in the Philippines,

16:19

whether in India, or whether you're in

16:21

the US. So it's a really, really interesting

16:24

opportunity for them. And

16:27

to be honest, they've done it before. And

16:30

so I think the crypto industry is easy

16:32

to move to the UK. So if the US screws this up,

16:35

Coinbase will, sure, be a US

16:37

listed company, but its main operations have been

16:39

the UK.

16:40

Same for many of these businesses. And I think that's

16:42

very, very interesting. Germany's already

16:44

doing a good job with regulation. Switzerland's done a great job

16:46

with regulation. France is trying to do a

16:48

good job with regulation. France is pioneering Web 3

16:51

via LVMH. Bernard

16:53

Arnaud is the richest man in the world. Louis Vuitton,

16:55

Moi Hennessy, is one of the biggest companies

16:57

in the world. That's a fashion luxury goods.

16:59

They've embraced Web 3. All the Arnaud

17:02

siblings

17:03

are all involved. The kids,

17:05

they're all involved in Web 3.

17:07

And I think we will see more of the fashion

17:09

brands and more of the industry based out of that. Ledger

17:12

itself is based in Paris. So interesting

17:14

to see Europe getting its toehold in

17:16

there. Switzerland has a big

17:19

toehold in the industry. Singapore,

17:21

as you know from Real Vision, is building

17:23

out. And Hong Kong has come back

17:25

into the fray. And they're allowing crypto,

17:27

encouraging crypto banking and encouraging

17:30

businesses to come back.

17:31

So here we are in a world that looks a lot like the

17:33

world that I knew in finance when I grew up,

17:36

which was London at the Epi Center,

17:39

Germany's a regional center, Switzerland

17:41

is a regional center, the

17:43

two eastern centers of

17:45

Hong Kong and Singapore. Tokyo

17:48

is missing from this equation because Tokyo has been less

17:50

internationalized in recent years. But

17:52

anyway, super interesting.

17:54

So that's what I think is happening.

17:57

Now the US can save themselves if they just

17:59

get out in their own way. way, and that requires removing

18:01

Gary Gensler, which I know a lot of people want

18:03

to do, including a lot of people in the government, United

18:06

States, let's see what happens. But this is the problem when you run

18:09

the world's most powerful richest country

18:11

with a bunch of baby boomers who just want to protect

18:13

what they've got.

18:15

Don't give me change, please. Because

18:17

I just want to live out my retirement. Well,

18:19

the hard job is to be somebody

18:21

who makes decisions about the future, not about

18:23

the past. And right now, the US is

18:25

making a lot of decisions about the past. But

18:27

in fact, they these people were global innovators.

18:30

And the US was the innovation economy

18:32

of the world. And they need to be very careful

18:35

in how they deal with this. It's the same with AI,

18:37

if they screw that one up, sure, there needs to be regulation

18:39

of AI, figure

18:40

overly tight, it'll move.

18:42

The Europeans are scared of it. So I don't know where

18:44

that moves to.

18:45

But again, the UK is around the corner. There's

18:47

a few other countries who are very interested in that

18:50

particular opportunity. Talking

18:52

of AI, another big thing on my mind, AI

18:55

has gone fucking

18:58

exponential is beyond

19:00

comprehension. So we're dealing with chat

19:02

GPT for we're dealing with mid journey

19:05

version, whatever it is, which is now photo

19:07

realistic beyond

19:09

any understanding, you cannot tell what

19:11

is AI generated, what's not.

19:14

We know that text to video

19:16

is coming. And that is going to be a momentous moments

19:19

as well. And quite dangerous. But

19:21

the big news that happened last week

19:23

only was the launch of common

19:28

what it's called now auto GPT, auto

19:31

GPT is what's known as Asian GPT. And

19:34

it's slightly terrifying. Because

19:36

what it's doing is using chat GPT for and

19:39

then using these agents that connect to the internet,

19:41

these mini ais that can go

19:44

and run tasks for the main AI

19:46

to do a more complex task.

19:49

So I finally got a chance having seen this launched

19:52

a week ago, five

19:55

or six different variations launched within

19:57

the first week, I played around

19:59

with one of them and the idea was write

20:02

me a newsletter about the exponential age. I

20:05

don't have branding, so he's developed branding for

20:07

it. I want it in PDF format. And

20:09

I want you to scrape the web find out the most interesting things

20:11

that happened last week. And look,

20:14

I didn't know what I'm doing. You know,

20:17

I have no idea how to prompt properly.

20:19

But I got it to run most of that

20:22

task and get it to run all of the tasks, but people

20:24

with a little bit more knowledge, or given

20:27

another month of development,

20:28

and it'll be able to do this. But what it does

20:31

is goes out,

20:33

I give it the task, which is I want this newsletter, that

20:35

was my only prompt.

20:37

It then goes away, it

20:38

goes and learns how to create a PDF.

20:41

It learns goes to

20:42

branding website,

20:44

learns about branding,

20:46

it then sends out

20:49

kind of bots or agents to go out

20:51

onto the internet, scrape from trusted

20:54

sites, the best and most important

20:56

stories, then creates a little file of all

20:58

of those stories, then puts it together as a newsletter,

21:01

put gives it the branding, pops into a PDF,

21:04

and delivers it to you. Can

21:06

you get your heads around what this means

21:08

for knowledge workers? This is

21:10

like an intern. And that's only our basic

21:12

intern stuff. It would

21:14

have taken somebody at least a day

21:17

or two days just to do the research side.

21:20

It did the whole thing in about 15 minutes. And

21:23

I keep saying this,

21:26

you know, I keep hearing the narrative of sticky

21:28

inflation. And oh my god, don't don't you know

21:30

that the oil price is going to go up? I'm like,

21:33

this is a nuclear fucking bomb of

21:35

disinflation. It's the most deflationary

21:37

thing the world has ever seen.

21:40

Because the highest paid jobs are the ones most

21:42

at risk. We can scale

21:45

human knowledge now infinitely. That

21:47

was a restraint. We

21:50

had two restraints in this world. One

21:52

was the ability to scale knowledge and

21:54

expertise. And the other was the ability

21:57

to scale energy. and

22:00

I'll come onto that in a sec, is something

22:02

the world is working on. But this knowledge

22:04

part, this is a huge, huge

22:07

change. And the issue is here is

22:09

this AI is operating not

22:12

at Metcalfe's law speed, which is the network

22:14

adoption effect speed, but because there's

22:16

these models and everything's being built on top

22:19

and then built on top, we're operating

22:21

in something called Reed's law, which is Metcalfe's law

22:23

squared, which is why we're all scrambling

22:25

and we can't quite get our heads around it

22:28

and it's not going to change. This is going to

22:30

keep going and going and going.

22:32

But that is not all that is going to happen

22:35

and you're going to have to get used to. As

22:38

liquidity comes back into markets, we will

22:40

see the next rise of the crypto story.

22:43

And the crypto story will go from 300 million users

22:45

to a billion users or more in this cycle.

22:48

And there'll be applications that you won't have dreamed of or

22:50

things that you thought weren't coming that will come at

22:52

scale, whether it's digital identity, whether

22:55

it's massive cases of web three, whether

22:57

it's DeFi, or whether it's something entirely

22:59

new, whether it's ticketing

23:01

via NFTs, who the hell knows?

23:03

But this next cycle with the amount

23:05

of capital that's been invested in this space, that

23:08

is going to see yet another acceleration.

23:12

But there's more coming. I think the Apple

23:15

announcement, I think it's June when they've

23:17

got their big kind of Apple-a-thon,

23:19

they're going to release

23:21

their AR VR glasses.

23:26

Big deal. Well, I

23:28

don't know, look at my Twitter speed and look at the nerf technology

23:31

that's out there, which is this kind of neural

23:35

ability to create 3D

23:38

realized spaces from photographs.

23:41

It's kind of mind blowing. So

23:44

it kind of tells you, you can spin up real

23:46

versions of the metaverse. So this could be a 3D

23:48

space, not the 2D space you're looking at. And

23:51

you can kind of navigate it. You could maybe sit

23:53

in the barber's chair while I'm doing this. That's

23:56

what's coming. I think Apple is going to launch the

23:58

first part of that. So

24:02

we've got a game changer that's coming. Another

24:05

one that will make us go, oh my God, I can't get my

24:07

head around it. And the meta versus suddenly arrived. It's a

24:09

different format that I thought was going to be

24:11

legless characters on meta. And now

24:13

it's a fucking 3D rendition of everything

24:16

going on in the world in photo form.

24:20

Okay. What the hell does that mean for

24:23

movies? What does it mean for anything? I

24:25

don't know anymore, but that's coming. And it's going to happen

24:28

in the next two, three months. And

24:31

the technology is already available. And I think Apple

24:33

are the people who are going to lean into it. So that's

24:36

a game changer coming. Self-driving

24:38

cars. It's one of these things where everyone's like, it's like

24:40

with AI. Oh yeah, it's just machine learning.

24:42

I remember hearing that when I started looking at AI for

24:44

real vision,

24:46

about two years ago, it's like, well, it's just machine learning.

24:48

You know, it's not really that sophisticated. Then

24:51

chat GPT 3 comes along. It was like,

24:53

oh, this is interesting. And people are still like, nah,

24:55

it's nothing really. And then chat GP4 comes

24:57

along. Everyone's gone. Oh my God. I can't believe it.

25:01

The same is going to happen with self-driving cars.

25:03

It's happening. It's happening. It's happening slowly.

25:06

Oh, Elon's never going to deliver. Waymo is

25:08

never going to happen. This is never going to happen. Oh my

25:10

God. The roads are filled for them.

25:12

Next time you're out in a big city, I was in New York, and

25:14

I was reading a tweet thread about

25:17

the

25:20

prevalence of autonomous vehicles

25:23

in, I think it was in California somewhere. And

25:25

this guy was saying, well, you know, I used to see them once a month,

25:28

and then I saw them every week. And then I see them

25:30

now

25:31

three, four, five times

25:33

a day. I'm like, wow, I didn't know

25:35

that. So that three, four, five times a day

25:38

suddenly scales, and it will scale everywhere.

25:40

So in the next two years, we will see this at

25:42

scale

25:43

everywhere. And then you go into New York City. When

25:45

I was reading that tweet, I was in an Uber. I

25:48

looked around. Every car was an

25:50

Uber, a taxi driver, a delivery car,

25:53

a bus. I'm like, all

25:55

those jobs are gone. I

25:58

don't need any of them. truck

26:00

drivers, we need any of

26:02

this. And how fast is that gonna come?

26:06

Slowly at first, then all at once. That's how all

26:08

of this stuff goes. Robotics,

26:11

self-driving cars are robots with AI. So

26:14

robots and AI, that's coming. I

26:17

sent a hypothesis out when Elon

26:20

bought Twitter and I said, this is nothing about buying a social

26:22

network and he's not interested in

26:24

freedom of speech. What

26:26

he's interested in is an unbiased AI platform.

26:29

So you can scrape as much data from humanity as possible,

26:32

where they're talking to each other in short form and then he built

26:34

out long form and he'll have video and he

26:36

will have audio. He's got audio.

26:38

All of these things will train

26:41

his AI, which is called X.AI.

26:44

So he's just announced that that way he's working on, which

26:47

is what I said he bought Twitter for. And $44 billion

26:49

for all of that, it's probably pretty cheap.

26:51

So he's also got the Dojo supercomputer,

26:54

which I think it's the fastest compute

26:56

on earth right now.

26:58

He's passed a Tesla for the self-driving.

27:00

So all of this stuff and he's just bought a gazillion

27:02

GPUs as he's scaling all

27:04

of this. But the other scary thing

27:06

is he also owns the robots. So he's got the

27:09

visualization

27:10

from the self-driving cars.

27:13

He's got all of the AI

27:16

and he's built the robot as well, which is this Optimus thing.

27:18

And again, everyone's gonna go, well, here's the Optimus, it's

27:20

all a sham. It's not real

27:22

until it is. Don't

27:25

forget the guy's sending the biggest space rocket

27:27

in history

27:28

into orbit in the next two days, or

27:30

at least gonna try. So don't discount

27:32

him, even if you, whether you hate him or not, it's irrelevant. Just

27:34

watch what he does and watch what he says. So

27:37

the exponential age is this

27:39

process where we're going to go into this period

27:42

where

27:44

everything seems liquid.

27:46

We can't really understand what is happening.

27:49

Societies shift into this distributed

27:51

online networked world.

27:53

Those networks shift. The utilization

27:55

of digital assets and AI is

27:58

the glue that creates this meta-version. the metaverse

28:00

digital world that we're all moving towards, the

28:03

metaverse digital world will mean that you can sit with

28:05

me in this barber's chair and we can chat, but

28:07

AI could mean that you could have a one-on-one chat with me,

28:09

that's all coming and it's all coming fast.

28:12

The rise of the robots, I mean, I'm terrified

28:15

about if you give my fridge, my toaster,

28:17

my kettle,

28:18

maybe my wine fridge even more scary, AI,

28:21

because they're all internet things, right? They're all connected to the internet.

28:23

Give them AI, they're gonna start talking about me. I don't

28:26

know what my wine fridge is gonna say, but it's not gonna be good.

28:28

If he tells my wife, I'm in big trouble. But

28:30

that's the problem. If my fridge says, hey, listen, Ral,

28:32

you've been eating all that shit from the fridge and it's

28:34

because you've drunk too much wine or whatever it is,

28:36

I mean, look,

28:38

you give

28:39

a fridge autonomy with AI and

28:42

you've created a robot.

28:43

Can these things network? Who the hell knows?

28:45

It's a scary, fascinating world. So

28:48

that's what's been on my mind this week. There's

28:50

a hell of a lot going on.

28:52

The macro's interesting, crypto's

28:54

interesting,

28:55

exponential age is interesting. So I'm

28:57

very excited about

28:59

everything, expecting lots

29:01

of ups and downs, but overall, I think

29:04

it's a really, really special moment in time

29:06

that we're living through right now and

29:08

nobody's ever lived through a time like this before. So

29:11

anyway, time to answer the questions.

29:16

Again, if you're watching this on YouTube, go to realvision.com

29:18

forward slash daily hyphen

29:20

briefing. I think the link's below

29:23

in YouTube. You

29:25

can ask questions there. I won't get to them on

29:27

YouTube. I'd rather you came to the platform to

29:29

ask the questions. It's much easier for me to do. And

29:32

anyway, if you do sign up, then you'll get

29:34

the newsletters about the daily briefings, the summaries,

29:37

and notifications is actually pretty useful.

29:40

It's our most popular email list, free email

29:42

list by a long way,

29:43

hundreds of thousands of people on that. So

29:46

go for that. Okay, question.

29:49

J-L-G, do you think the recent noise

29:52

from the SEC will affect the usual four-year

29:54

cycle and the halving?

29:57

So we're talking about crypto here. No,

29:59

I think.

31:59

SMH, which is the semis that takes

32:02

into account a lot of this. And

32:05

then NASDAQ,

32:10

if you want to keep it simpler,

32:11

crypto is my favorite bet of all,

32:13

and I'm long carbon as well, because I

32:15

like that, I'm long bonds.

32:17

So bonds would not be a three year

32:20

time horizon, everything else would be easily one

32:22

year and three years. Jason

32:24

C, for investors with 10 to 20 year time horizons,

32:26

I can see the appeal of things like crypto and exponential

32:29

stocks, which I talked about 10

32:30

to 20 years, I think they work in a

32:32

one year, two year, three year, five year, they

32:35

will have down cycles when we have tightening of

32:37

liquidity when it comes at the peak of the business cycle,

32:39

as it always is, but over time, they still keep

32:42

trending higher. What

32:44

about retiree boomers that are looking to draw

32:47

down now, the old 6040 portfolio

32:49

still apply?

32:52

Well,

32:55

with four and a half percent interest rates,

32:57

you might just want to choose bonds. Now,

33:02

problem is, is inflation, but I think

33:04

inflation is lower, but you won't beat the debasement

33:06

of currency, because the Central Bank will probably increase the

33:09

supply of currency by more than

33:12

by more than the

33:15

than the yield on the bonds. I

33:17

think equities and bonds is fine. 6040,

33:19

I think it will work well, we just had the worst

33:21

year ever for 6040.

33:23

So generally speaking, it's a clean trade

33:25

now. So yeah, I don't think it's the worst trade, you

33:27

could add a bit of gold,

33:29

if you want to be super cautious within

33:31

that. I have no issue with that. Yeah,

33:34

that probably kind of makes sense.

33:35

Okay, moving

33:38

down the list of questions.

33:41

Crypto Gandalf. Hello, Rael, what's your thoughts about

33:43

arbitrum and Arb token specifically? No

33:45

idea. Sorry. I know,

33:48

you know, I hear about it. I don't know.

33:51

I'm not invested. I don't, I

33:52

don't really have any thoughts. Thoughts on

33:54

the gaming industry entering blockchain in the next years.

33:56

I think that's 100% certainty

33:59

depends how much it's scales and there's a lot

34:01

of people working on it. So I

34:04

think it's one of the big potential breakthroughs.

34:07

What's your only known non crypto portfolio? Are Tesla

34:09

and Coinbase the only individual stock bets you have? No,

34:12

I would refer to the video

34:14

that I did recently

34:16

about all of this and the exponential age. It shows

34:19

some stock picks that I've got within my exponential

34:21

age basket

34:22

and there's a whole bunch of them. Coinbase and Tesla

34:24

are just one of that basket of 30 odd names

34:26

of which a bunch of those are ETFs and those

34:29

have lots of names. It's a very broad, diversified,

34:32

directional bet.

34:35

I don't think the stocks are all right or the ETFs

34:37

may be partly wrong but directionally ill

34:40

nail what it's doing and it's already, as I said, it's

34:42

outperformed everything else this year.

34:46

John Amatulli.

34:48

How will the exponential

34:50

increase in the power of AI held almost exclusively

34:53

in the hands of a few corporation state actors along

34:55

with declining societal cohesion resulting

34:58

in the ease of manufacturing, blah, blah, blah,

35:00

blah, blah, blah. It's a long question

35:02

here. I

35:07

don't really understand the question.

35:09

But yeah, I don't like the fact that

35:12

it's in the hands of a few and that's

35:14

what the decentralized movement is about. It's what crypto

35:16

is about. It's what stability AI is about.

35:18

I think we can't allow excess

35:20

power within the few. So I'll

35:22

leave that question at that. Okay.

35:27

William Tippett. Square

35:30

root of net calves

35:33

law and correct. So thank you for the correction,

35:35

William. That's a great value add to the community and please,

35:37

you posted that comment.

35:40

Ricky Ross. I've got a bet on autonomous driving with

35:42

my girlfriend. Looking forward to winning one pound. Okay.

35:44

Okay. There's

35:51

a lot of spam comments here. Al and

35:58

Ellie, how much do you see private decentralized blockchains

36:00

like MasterCard, Provenance, impacting

36:03

growth regulations of public decentralized

36:05

solutions.

36:06

I think we all work together. There's going to

36:08

be private solutions, there's going to be massive decentralized

36:10

solutions, there's going to be CBDCs, it's all

36:13

part of the mix.

36:14

So I have no issue

36:16

with it. The more people that adopt the technology in

36:19

whatever format, the better the world will be. What

36:27

are your top three indicators that the market is topping

36:29

out? I don't think it's topping out. I think

36:31

we've bottomed. But

36:33

generally speaking, I use the business cycle. Forward-looking

36:37

indicators of the ISM and

36:39

the ISM itself, it gives a very good signal.

36:42

GMI, we've built a whole macro

36:44

quantitative asset allocation model as well based

36:47

around business cycle. And

36:49

so, yeah, I use the business cycle

36:51

always have, and then I use technical analysis for

36:53

an overlay. What's

37:00

your top three indicators?

37:11

Sherry Matigan, is this RAIL or AI

37:13

talking to us? You

37:16

won't know

37:17

until we've got digital ID, which is what I keep saying. Because

37:19

we're going to experiment with some of this stuff at Real Vision.

37:22

And yeah, it's slightly terrifying.

37:25

So thank you, Sherry. This is me.

37:27

But it could

37:27

be AI and me.

37:28

Zain Tan, Raoul,

37:30

are you planning to allow Real Vision members to participate in investing

37:33

in the exponential funds you've set up using blockchain and

37:35

token distribution? Similar to what Republic note is saying,

37:37

trying to accomplish. So yes, I have an asset management

37:39

company called Exponential Asset Management.

37:42

It invests in digital asset hedge funds. It's

37:44

a fund of funds. We're having other funds

37:46

as part of it. The

37:48

issue is we can't tokenize it for non-accredited

37:50

investors in the US. So if a

37:53

US investor you can't do it, we are looking at

37:55

tokenization overall, and we're looking at tokenization

37:59

crowdsource portfolios at Real Vision,

38:02

it's regulatory hurdles. So we just need to figure

38:04

that out. So

38:05

yes, I believe in tokenization of assets.

38:07

I believe in allowing

38:09

ordinary people access to the same tools that

38:11

wealthy people have.

38:12

Just bear with me because I don't want to go to prison.

38:15

However much I love you. Ralph

38:25

Humphrey, what were the top three things you learned when you were running a

38:27

commodity fund? Now you'll probably think I was the

38:29

hedge fund, but I did run a commodity

38:31

fund. Started up a commodity hedge fund, which was agricultural

38:34

commodities. And I learned never to run a hedge

38:36

fund trading agricultural commodities.

38:39

They're massively volatile and

38:42

they're mean reverting. And so I

38:44

had a hypothesis that

38:47

the world would

38:49

not be able to plant enough food for

38:52

people. And the land productivity

38:54

was on the decline. I was wrong because technology

38:56

changed all of that and actually went up and down

38:58

with the business cycle as well and the dollar

39:00

cycle. And I learned that

39:03

agricultural commodities are a very

39:05

specialist topic because you can have whatever thesis

39:07

you want. And then suddenly it rains in Nevada.

39:09

And before you know it, your whole position has been wiped

39:12

out and it's limited down for six days in a row. So

39:14

the answer is never do it. I think Tony Greg gave

39:16

the same thing on his MA about silver. He's like, don't

39:18

ever trade it. It's far too dangerous because

39:21

it's so gappy. So I didn't

39:23

like commodity hedge funds. And I'm also not as talented

39:25

as somebody like Dwight Anderson, who

39:27

knows what he's doing.

39:29

Giorgio

39:31

Malle, how will the rise of AI affect

39:34

the price and worth of US college

39:36

tuitions? Well,

39:40

somewhere between the metaverse and

39:42

AI is a complete disruption of education.

39:46

So I imagine tuitions

39:49

at a broad level change, but hyper

39:52

elite education maybe become more elite.

39:54

Who the hell knows? And anything

39:57

and everything is up for grabs. Marco

40:02

De Venice, O'Leary and others, I don't

40:05

know Kevin was a leading voice, saying

40:08

that US dollar shitcoin will be

40:10

here forever.

40:11

Do you think Brix will shake it up?

40:18

The US dollar is 87%

40:21

of all world trade

40:23

and something like 70%

40:25

of all world debt is

40:27

in US dollars.

40:28

It is not going away.

40:30

Can it go away over time?

40:32

For sure. And

40:35

that could be competition from private currencies

40:38

or let's call them public currencies, non-state.

40:42

It could be from

40:44

China, it could be from regional packs,

40:46

it could be from all sorts of people. So

40:49

we end up in a more fragmented world. The

40:52

world needs to move away from the dollar being

40:54

such a large part of it. I

40:57

think it's detrimental for almost every other

40:59

economy

40:59

and maybe even for the US itself.

41:02

I don't think Brix stand a chance yet

41:04

of doing that. But can the world de-dollarise

41:06

partially? Yes. Does

41:09

it mean the dollar goes down? Probably

41:12

not. So I'm an ongoing

41:14

dollar bull. I think it goes down medium

41:17

term, the next six

41:19

months or so. I think the dollar goes lower. But

41:21

my structural view remains

41:23

that the world is short dollars and

41:26

every time liquidity slows

41:28

down the global economy, the dollar shoots higher.

41:32

King's Cross London, hey Riff. What

41:35

is the best way to exchange dollar to cryptocurrency

41:37

globally? Many exchanges are

41:39

no longer

41:40

able to perform this type of exchange.

41:43

Well yes, the UK has problems

41:45

with its banking, on banking, off banking.

41:47

I think you can use Revolut

41:49

and some of the neo banks. I

41:52

think that's a pretty straightforward. PayPal is probably another

41:54

one.

41:54

So you may not be able to get RBS

41:57

or Netwest or whoever to do it because they're being

41:59

stupid right now, but there are other

42:02

ways. I mean, there's plenty of people onboarding to crypto

42:04

from the UK. In fact, the UK

42:06

government put out the report, there's like 28% of all UK

42:08

citizens own crypto. So there are plenty

42:11

of ways you just need to look into non-traditional

42:13

ways or

42:14

or neo-bankways. Benjamin

42:23

Kemper, how does marking prices hard? This

42:25

is the debasement idea

42:27

work and who does it?

42:29

It's the market does it. I don't

42:31

know, it's a weird mechanism like in Venezuela,

42:34

stock markets don't go up, the currency goes down

42:36

and they revalue it. Same with what happened

42:38

in the Iranian stock market

42:40

and anywhere else we see that kind of stuff. It's

42:43

the same that happens if

42:45

let's say you live in a street and suddenly

42:47

there's a billionaire comes who wants to buy

42:49

property in your street. Well guess what? Everybody

42:52

marks up at your house 50%.

42:54

That didn't trade,

42:56

it's a mark-up. So

42:57

I think what happens is prices get marked

43:00

up

43:00

to account for the debasement and it seems

43:03

to be almost mathematical

43:05

as I've proven in the charts earlier. So the

43:07

mechanism is

43:09

whether it's by market making or just by

43:12

the crowd psychology.

43:18

JJ, you like carbon but don't think it'll

43:20

take many more years to iron out all the kinks. I think

43:22

you need to watch the interview with Lawson

43:24

Steele.

43:25

Lawson and I have gone through this at depth

43:28

many times. The EU

43:31

carbon allowance system is a

43:33

phenomenally good system.

43:35

It has been thoroughly tested and it is

43:38

a

43:38

I think a great trade because the government is incentivizing

43:41

everybody

43:42

to move off carbon and is penalizing

43:44

them via the carbon allowances to

43:46

do it and it reduces

43:49

the supply every year. So it's like

43:51

where you reduce the supply every year but you're forcing

43:53

people into it. So it's a phenomenally good

43:55

trade and what

43:58

it's doing is then forces people to decarbonize

44:00

over time. So I think it works very well.

44:03

How do I invest in carbon credits?

44:05

So

44:06

Crane shares, I think a sponsor here,

44:08

KRBN is one

44:10

of them and I think this KREU is the other

44:13

one. So KRBN also includes

44:16

the California carbon credits.

44:19

KREU is just the

44:22

European one. You can also use

44:24

the futures, so place like interactive brokers,

44:26

you can trade the futures, the pure futures contract,

44:29

which is the benchmark of which what everybody uses,

44:32

or you can use stuff like Lawson Steel Kabuki,

44:35

which is a ERC-20 token. And that exactly

44:39

mirrors

44:41

the carbon as well and actually removes carbon

44:43

from the system or allowances from the system.

44:45

So it's a very good mechanism.

44:48

So there's plenty of ways of doing it. JJ,

44:50

what do you think about the future of Solana? Well, I'm a bull,

44:52

I think it goes up. V-Pal

44:57

Mantri, why is nobody working on decentralized AI

44:59

and blockchain? I

45:00

don't know, are you sure?

45:04

My guess is they are.

45:06

I mean, I've spoken about it at length. I think

45:09

we can tokenize these AI networks to

45:11

allow use of compute to

45:13

be tokenized or people put data

45:16

in to be tokenized and therefore everybody

45:18

participates in the network. So

45:20

I think because you don't see it today doesn't mean it's not

45:22

happening.

45:24

Jaymarco

45:26

at gmail.com. Thank you, Jay, for giving

45:28

us your email address. Everybody email Jay and say thank

45:30

you for his question. Jaymarco

45:33

at gmail.com. When will the

45:35

US next print more dollars? Well,

45:37

roughly by month.

45:39

I'm sorry, Jay.

45:41

Let me get my crystal ball out for you. They

45:43

recently did it.

45:45

And people say, well, that wasn't

45:47

quantitative easing, but it went on the balance sheet and

45:49

the stock market went up. So it seems like it's debasement

45:51

to me.

45:53

When will the next do it?

45:56

It depends if the KRE

45:59

index. If the regional banking shares index

46:01

falls, then they will do

46:03

it faster. If it doesn't

46:05

fall much further, then it will come

46:07

when unemployment

46:12

starts rising, which my guess is

46:15

by about September, we'll be back into

46:17

money printing mode and rate cutting

46:20

mode will probably come sooner. But it all depends on the banks

46:22

because that can accelerate the whole thing. My hypothesis

46:24

is the bank's probably got another leg lower

46:26

and that will bring around potential

46:29

rate cuts

46:30

to get the difference between

46:32

money market funds and deposit rates back

46:35

closer in line. And I think we'll do QE

46:37

because they need to clear up the commercial

46:39

real estate on the balance sheets of these firms and also

46:41

cement some of these firms.

46:44

Gary Day, this is a question that everybody

46:46

asks. What should

46:49

my 15-year-old do to best take advantage of the coming trends? I

46:51

have no idea. I know it's terrifying

46:54

as a parent. All my friends are

46:56

asking the same thing.

46:57

I think just lean in, lean

47:00

into it, lean into crypto,

47:02

lean into technology, lean

47:06

into the use of technology to enhance yourself

47:09

to be a more productive person.

47:13

If you can do that, you're ahead of most people. So

47:16

I think that is the thing. And then he'll have to figure it out like

47:18

we all have to figure it out. I mean, somebody,

47:22

you will have been told many wrong things

47:24

in the past. You should be doing this and then that job

47:26

changed. So I don't really know,

47:29

but just lean in. It's

47:30

a secular trend. It's not going away.

47:35

Ken, do you value Polkadot similarly to Solana?

47:38

Everything's valued off Metcalfe's law and I've kind of

47:40

proven it out in Global Macro Investor and Pro

47:43

Macro. They all work the same thing, roughly

47:46

number of active addresses times the value exchanged,

47:49

let's say on a week or a month. That

47:51

formula maps pretty much exactly.

47:54

The number doesn't matter, but the actual

47:57

output is pretty much price, which says

47:59

that

47:59

most cryptocurrencies are fairly priced once they

48:02

get to a

48:03

vaguely mature stage. I pass

48:06

a launch phase, pass the kind of

48:08

few hundred million dollar market cap phase. So

48:11

yes, Polkadot's valued in a very similar

48:13

way.

48:16

Jeff Medina, Hi Ral, always into your

48:18

presentations. Thank you, Jeff. I appreciate

48:20

you being here and asking me a question. What do

48:23

demarc signal say about crypto and US indices?

48:26

Demarc's my favorite technical indicator. I feel

48:28

completely blind without it.

48:30

Tom Demarc is a personal friend

48:33

and also, I

48:35

think, has created one of

48:37

the greatest things in technical analysis. It's

48:39

voodoo to me. If you care about

48:42

demarc and want to learn more, we've got an entire

48:44

demarc course by Tom Demarc himself. We're the

48:46

only people in the world who have this. It's on Real

48:48

Vision Plus as part of the real investing

48:51

course and the Real Vision Academy. So

48:53

if you haven't done that,

48:55

it's worth the bloody cost of the

48:57

Real Vision Plus, which is about $550 a year. And

49:01

that gives you all your essential content, plus all the

49:03

academy, just for that course.

49:05

Trust me, it changes your life. You

49:07

can't make $550 once you understand how

49:10

Tom's indicators work.

49:12

I can't help you. So

49:14

Real Vision Plus, honestly, trust

49:16

me, just for that course alone. And there's a ton

49:19

of other amazing courses, including coming

49:21

my business cycle course as well. So

49:24

let's have a look.

49:26

I'm looking at ETH. It's

49:28

like a daily 12. So we're

49:31

looking to have a short-term top of the pause.

49:33

The weekly is still, weekly

49:37

demarc is a good look.

49:42

I think it was a six. It

49:45

might be a seven now. Let's just check. Seven.

49:50

So week seven. So we'd have another two weeks. So

49:52

I kind of feel like pause

49:55

here, another squirt higher than a larger

49:57

consolidation, whether it's sideways or not.

50:00

a sharp correction who the hell knows you

50:02

never know in crypto before the

50:04

next phase where I think we then

50:06

have another push up so I think

50:08

we've got a very strong year to come. So

50:10

that's what it's doing for US equities I'm

50:12

going to use the NASDAQ because I don't care about

50:14

the S&P it feels like a boomer index nowadays

50:17

and the NASDAQ is the one that outperforms as I've proven

50:20

it's really up double what the S&P is up.

50:22

NASDAQ

50:25

daily demark. I

50:28

have fortune for this on my Bloomberg by the way so you're

50:30

getting this for free. Daily demark is

50:32

a four

50:34

count it had a 13 so we had a 9 13 and

50:36

maybe we'll get

50:38

a 9 they'll get a bigger correction so there's

50:41

probably a bigger correction coming but it feels like there's more

50:43

upside let me check the weeklies because that's important

50:45

like the contacts it's at a 6 similar to

50:47

crypto feels that we're

50:49

around the point where we might

50:50

have a squeeze up

50:52

pull back

50:54

a run higher into the next two three weeks and

50:57

then probably a larger correction or a pause

50:59

for the time being so let's wait and see again

51:03

things can change demark indicates has changed as well

51:05

so you need to look at that.

51:13

Sandy do you hold any Casper? I

51:17

don't even know what it is it was a big company

51:19

maybe it is but no I don't know the big company.

51:28

David Chasten what are the benefits of owning a real vision

51:30

collective NFT differ between the various

51:32

rarity categories

51:34

do we need to own a mythic for all three drops to

51:36

qualify when is the next drop

51:38

I'm not sure the date the next drop but

51:41

it's I

51:42

think it's early next month

51:43

the idea is that

51:46

you only need one NFT to qualify

51:48

to be part of the community so

51:50

that's to make it inclusive but

51:53

owning more rarity traits and more of

51:55

each season

51:57

will give you the ability to eventually join a strong community.

52:00

which is a small super elite community. You

52:02

also get different benefits from doing so. So

52:05

go onto the discord, ask them

52:07

more about the details,

52:09

Moritz, Haydn, the Real Vision bot, those

52:11

guys are there to help you. So they

52:14

will guide you through what all of that is.

52:31

Sorry, I'm reading. I've always got my mouth in my mouth.

52:33

Gormless look when I do this. Frank,

52:37

are you worried about US valuations? Why

52:39

would it warrant much higher valuation than

52:41

other countries? OK, this is part of the everything code as well.

52:44

Valuations are a pure

52:46

monetary phenomena since 2008.

52:50

They're driven by two factors. The price of equities rise

52:52

according to the debasement. So that's the Fed balance

52:54

sheet or the global balance sheets.

52:57

And earnings rise by M2.

53:00

The balance sheet rises faster than M2 earnings

53:02

rise. Once you

53:04

adjust for that,

53:07

all earnings are equal across the world. It's the US

53:09

that benefits, it's the reserve currency.

53:11

That is entirely the US outperformance

53:14

of the global markets. It's driven by the US

53:16

dollar plus the

53:19

effects of the debasement on US assets.

53:23

I know it's a lot to get your head around. Sounds mumbo

53:25

jumbo, but I've proven it out in

53:27

the everything code, which is again, really

53:29

important. Raoul,

53:33

what must happen to prove your whole thesis wrong?

53:38

Technology needs to stop. How

53:43

else does technology not continue? That

53:46

thesis, so exponential age, almost

53:49

impossible to stop. Even

53:52

with inflation, people are like, well, inflation. Yeah,

53:54

well, companies that grow at 100% a year

53:57

are all fucking open AI that grew up. chat

54:00

to your computer that went from zero to 100 million users

54:02

in five weeks. I don't even cares about inflation

54:05

rates. How makes no difference.

54:07

Uh, it's only the rates of change as they're increasing rates

54:09

that cause the causes the sell-off

54:12

crypto. It's

54:15

at a trillion dollar market cap. What do I have to prove

54:17

anymore? Um,

54:19

so I don't know about that one. Disinflation. Okay.

54:22

We can all give out that one. Um,

54:24

that I think we're still in a structural disinflationary

54:27

world driven by demographics

54:31

and debt and technology and

54:34

others would argue we're in a sticky inflation world

54:36

driven by wage growth and commodity

54:38

prices. Um, I think

54:40

that's a seventies driven world and we're missing

54:42

the dev demographic push for that. So

54:45

even though wages for people who remain in

54:47

the workforce may be higher, the labor force

54:49

participation rate keeps going down. Those

54:51

people don't earn a wage. Their wages don't

54:53

go up. So as a percentage of the overall work pool

54:56

and spending pool doesn't go up and so

54:58

GDP keeps trending down. Inflation keeps

55:01

trending down. That would be my

55:03

thesis.

55:04

Part of my bigger thesis being wrong

55:06

is disinflation. Well, but it doesn't actually make any difference

55:08

to my investments per say. The only one that

55:11

would make a difference is my bond trade, which is a trade

55:13

and not an investment, which is probably

55:15

a

55:16

six, 12 month bet.

55:18

Um, other than that, I don't think it, it doesn't

55:21

really, really make a difference. Um,

55:27

okay. By God, you guys

55:29

are a cynical bunch of miserable people.

55:32

Mark Brooker. Hey, Ralph,

55:34

what do you think about the assets assertion that

55:36

we're embarking on an exponential age on a planet of finite

55:38

resources, we're actually entering a terminal decline

55:41

for technology and civilization will

55:43

all be back to living in pre-industrialized lives

55:45

in a central. So, okay.

55:49

Um, you're probably

55:51

in a bunker with a tin hat, eating tin food and have your supply of

55:54

guns around you and maybe some killer attack dogs.

56:00

But really, Mark,

56:03

what is happening here is

56:05

technology leverages resources. You've

56:09

got to understand this key point.

56:11

We're producing more productive output per

56:13

calorie of energy

56:15

than humanity has ever done before.

56:18

As we build within the exponential age,

56:21

new forms of electricity that

56:23

come from new sources, solar, wind,

56:27

nuclear, geothermal, those

56:30

are in an exponential downward path in costs.

56:34

The issue is, is some of them don't scale big

56:36

enough yet. All

56:38

of that is to come. What

56:40

we have had is a world for the last hundred

56:43

years where all energy is basically

56:45

the oil price, which is cyclical

56:48

and inflation adjusted has not gone anywhere

56:50

at all.

56:53

So that has been the anchor to everything.

56:56

So what we've done is use technology

56:59

to massively increase the product of output

57:01

per units of energy.

57:03

Now, productivity hasn't gone up because we've got an aging population.

57:06

Productivity

57:07

is to do with population as well.

57:10

But if you lower

57:12

the cost of the energy, which is about to happen,

57:14

whether it's in the next three years,

57:17

five years, ten years, doesn't

57:20

really matter. Plus, you add in the exponential

57:22

technologies, you're using less resources

57:24

and creating more output. So it's very

57:27

hard to get in a world where

57:30

resource output, particularly with a global shrinking

57:32

population in the Western world and peak

57:35

demographics in most of the world, apart from Africa,

57:37

which is still peaking, but India peak

57:39

demographics already happened. So

57:41

everybody's rate of change of growth is

57:43

now going to shrink going forwards and the global

57:46

population will shrink going forward. We're

57:49

not going not yet, but we'll eventually start shrinking towards

57:51

the end of the century. So I think

57:53

it's the opposite world than you think of.

57:55

So I might open those tins of food

57:58

over you and maybe use the foil to run.

57:59

wrap some of that food in after you've cooked it

58:02

because you probably don't need the bunker.

58:08

Another one, what is wrong with you guys?

58:11

Third one, what's the start of the conflict, soon

58:13

war between China and Taiwan for

58:15

the macro field and the stock

58:17

market? Well,

58:20

war is never a good thing, but although

58:23

you tend to buy war, you

58:26

sell the lead into war and buy the war, but I

58:30

don't know how to answer that. Yes, it would be bad,

58:33

but if you think there's always war

58:35

around the corner or some shocking geopolitical

58:37

event or the end of the world coming,

58:40

you'll never make any money at all. So

58:42

that's the risk you have to play with.

58:44

My God, there's a lot

58:46

of questions. Okay, I'm going

58:50

to skip forward a few because I'm going to run out of time.

58:54

Joe Brady, Joe, thank you, my friend.

58:56

K-U-E-A, not K-R-E-U.

59:00

K-E-U-A is the

59:03

EU carbon ETF. Sounds

59:07

like a superhero, Lawson Stillner. Frankly,

59:10

don't give him that impression. Please

59:12

don't. He's insufferable as it is. So

59:23

there's so much Armageddon here. Z, Ral,

59:25

please speak to what Elizabeth Warren is saying to destroy

59:28

crypto. And is it like an

59:30

order to later promote a US CBDC? Yes,

59:33

CBDCs are coming everywhere to

59:36

you. Get used to it. That is your

59:38

form of sovereign currency. You live in whatever country

59:40

you live in

59:41

and you will accept their currency. We also have

59:43

an alternative system which we can use, which

59:45

is the cryptocurrency market, and we can all use

59:47

those too, and we will do. And

59:49

Elizabeth Warren is an irrelevant baby

59:51

boomer who is trying to stop

59:54

her world changing.

59:55

That's my thoughts on that

59:57

one. Will rate

59:59

cuts

59:59

bring on a recession, Christina.

1:00:02

Christina rate cuts are because of recessions,

1:00:04

so we have a recession, they cut rates.

1:00:11

Sergey S or Serge S, what are

1:00:13

your thoughts on Nvidia? Not particularly could

1:00:15

be single stocks, but as I said I like the SMH,

1:00:17

I like semis, I think they go higher. I

1:00:24

can skip forwards. Andrei

1:00:29

Warkotch, who let the dog out. I think my

1:00:32

wife went past, I don't know, somebody

1:00:34

did, but usually they fight their way out. Crypto

1:00:47

Rascal, how do you plan on using Bitcoin in the future

1:00:49

in your portfolio? Will you ever sell it for dollars or

1:00:51

hold it and use it to borrow against?

1:00:54

I actually don't know much Bitcoin, I

1:00:56

haven't for a very long time now,

1:00:58

but let's assume it's for crypto, will

1:01:00

I ever sell it out? Yes, because the whole game is

1:01:02

about lifestyle. That's what

1:01:04

we're in this for. We're not in it for some justice

1:01:06

warrior world.

1:01:09

At some point you want to have a nice

1:01:11

house or you want to build an extension

1:01:13

or you want to do something else. Everything

1:01:16

is about lifestyle. That is what we work for, that is what we

1:01:18

invest for. Everything is about the quality

1:01:20

of life that you have. It's not about material possessions, it

1:01:23

could be just because you want to have a hut in the woods

1:01:25

so you can be out with nature. It could be you want

1:01:27

to go traveling. Lifestyle is everything,

1:01:29

that's what we invest for. Nothing else matters.

1:01:32

Lifestyle meaning,

1:01:34

relationships, love, the

1:01:37

environment we live in, our connection with nature,

1:01:39

the things around us, the

1:01:41

things that make us happy.

1:01:42

So don't confuse it with that.

1:01:48

Yo-Yo, World War Three will stop

1:01:50

the exponential age. Thank you, Yo-Yo. I please

1:01:53

you've added such value. You did add a smiley face, so

1:01:55

I hope you were being sarcastic.

1:02:06

Don Pham. Don, does

1:02:09

cynicism maybe mean people are in disbelief?

1:02:13

And that's exactly what it is. You know, periods

1:02:15

of great change. People get really

1:02:18

cynical. I was on a spaces call today, and

1:02:20

I could hear a friend of mine really pushing

1:02:23

back on AI. No, it's not. It's not happening.

1:02:25

Eevee, it's not happening. It's all nonsense. I'm like,

1:02:28

maybe it is.

1:02:30

But you don't sound like you've got an open mind to it because I think people

1:02:32

fear change.

1:02:34

And that's understandable.

1:02:36

If you don't have that abundance mindset

1:02:39

going into this kind of stuff, it's

1:02:42

unsettling because everything you took

1:02:45

to understand as stable isn't stable.

1:02:48

Everything you thought was new is now not new anymore.

1:02:51

It's actually really hard. So I may

1:02:54

kind of joke about the kind

1:02:56

of scarcity

1:02:58

mindset, the mindset of no, don't change

1:03:01

the fear of change. But look, it's

1:03:03

a complete understandable

1:03:05

thing. And people don't like

1:03:07

it. And they find arguments against stuff because

1:03:10

they don't want change. And

1:03:13

that's okay. But change still

1:03:15

comes. And there's nothing you can do about it. You might as well just embrace

1:03:17

it. Okay,

1:03:21

final question. Oh, yo, yo, thank you. Yo, yo,

1:03:24

India peak population 2070. So appreciate

1:03:26

that.

1:03:32

South Africa is 2100. Thank you. You

1:03:35

are chat GPT of this chat. Most

1:03:38

valuable player coming with the facts.

1:03:40

Yo's

1:03:43

come back with war creates exponential

1:03:45

age demand. Okay, yo, yo, enough

1:03:47

now. Okay,

1:03:53

final, final question. I'm going to go to the last question on the page.

1:04:00

God, you guys ask a lot of questions. Thank you. I love

1:04:02

this. Can

1:04:08

you speak about the abundance mindset? What is it?

1:04:12

Great question to end on.

1:04:13

The abundance mindset

1:04:15

is not a it's mine or your world.

1:04:18

It's our world. There

1:04:20

is enough for all of us to

1:04:23

grow together. Some will do better. Some will do

1:04:25

worse. But the idea is

1:04:27

that combined, we

1:04:31

can create more wealth and more opportunity.

1:04:34

It is not that resource-scarce world

1:04:36

of I've got the oil, you haven't got the oil,

1:04:38

you need to pay me for it. Once

1:04:41

you realize that technology, Web3

1:04:44

and other things like this, and just karma,

1:04:47

karma is an abundance

1:04:50

mindset. Some people

1:04:52

are just mean to people because

1:04:54

they think it's me versus them. Karma

1:04:57

is I'm going to give with no expectation

1:05:00

of return, but the universe kind of returns

1:05:02

it back because people think you're a nice person. They want to

1:05:05

also be nice to you. It's

1:05:07

incredible. It creates enormous

1:05:09

abundance, helping people

1:05:12

in any way, shape or form does this.

1:05:15

Once you accept it within investing as

1:05:17

well, it's not my idea versus

1:05:19

your idea. It's like, oh, your idea is interesting. My

1:05:22

idea is interesting. Or we can do this

1:05:24

together. Once you understand it is

1:05:26

not a competition for scarce

1:05:28

resources,

1:05:30

particularly in technology, cryptocurrencies

1:05:32

and stuff like that, where we're building new things,

1:05:35

then it opens your mind that

1:05:39

we can all make money and doesn't have to be a mean,

1:05:41

reverting world.

1:05:42

It's literally a game changer once

1:05:44

you understand the abundance mindset

1:05:47

that together we can do more than

1:05:49

we can as individuals. It's not one

1:05:52

team versus another. It's all of us together.

1:05:54

So

1:05:55

thank you, everybody. Wealth is

1:05:57

not zero sum. Christophe, that's how you sum it all up.

1:06:00

up in our investing world.

1:06:02

Wealth is not a zero-sum game.

1:06:04

We can grow the entire pie,

1:06:06

not just take our share of the pie.

1:06:09

Thank you everyone. I hope you enjoyed

1:06:11

this. It was slightly chaotic as ever. I don't

1:06:14

really know what I'm doing, but hopefully I've helped you.

1:06:16

We've had some fun in the process. If I've insulted you

1:06:18

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1:06:20

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1:06:22

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1:06:24

Please subscribe to the channel.

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1:06:37

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1:06:40

Have a good day everyone.

1:06:46

Take care.

1:06:49

Thanks for joining us today. Just a reminder,

1:06:51

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1:06:56

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