0:15

Hello and welcome to Rock and

0:17

Roll Politics, the podcast with me,

0:19

Steve Richards. Thanks so much for

0:21

tuning in wherever you are during

0:23

your busy day, night, or

0:25

wherever you're listening to this podcast.

0:28

And as usual, we've got a

0:30

lot to cram in in our

0:32

time together. If it's okay with

0:34

all of you, I will reflect

0:36

on Labour's £28 billion

0:38

furore, the borrowing so-called

0:41

for the Green Energy

0:43

Plan. Then we will

0:45

come to your brilliant questions and

0:48

we have got some fantastic

0:50

insight on the return

0:52

of the Northern Ireland Assembly. We've

0:55

got the legendary Cannon Paul, Bathnot,

0:57

who highlighted the expediency in the

0:59

DUP leadership to all of us

1:02

months before anyone else delved

1:05

as deep. But we've got others

1:08

more sceptical, including

1:11

our French correspondent, who

1:13

has been engaged before

1:15

in debate with Paul,

1:17

and lots of other reflections

1:20

indeed on the £28 billion Labour

1:23

defensiveness and

1:25

other things too. So yeah, I'm

1:27

not going to do any notices because we've got so

1:29

much to get through. But

1:31

just in five seconds, please

1:33

sign up to Patreon, where you

1:35

will have more space to delve deep.

1:39

And do subscribe and spread the word. And

1:41

if you could leave a review, only if

1:43

you like it, of course, that

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helps spread the word and expand

1:49

our cooperative as we make

1:51

sense of politics in this

1:53

election year. Mess

2:00

Labour have got themselves into

2:03

over the £28 billion

2:05

is really fascinating

2:07

on many levels, some

2:10

of which actually have been under

2:13

explored and are yet fundamental.

2:17

One is this, policymaking

2:21

under the Stalmer

2:23

leadership is inevitably

2:26

rushed and not

2:29

always thought through and that

2:31

is less inevitable. What

2:34

I mean by that is, you know,

2:36

a partial model for their road to

2:39

the election is new Labour in

2:41

97. The

2:43

incrementalism, the caution, even

2:46

the language, I heard Rachel Reeves

2:48

at the business conference last week

2:50

saying we will campaign as a

2:53

pro-business party, we will govern as

2:55

a pro-business party, echoing Blair

2:58

at number 10, we were elected as

3:00

new Labour, we will govern as new

3:02

Labour and so on. There are many

3:05

echoes. But one

3:07

of the big differences is that by

3:09

the time Tony Blair became leader in

3:11

1994, he had inherited a whole range

3:13

of policies that

3:20

weren't going to be dropped, they

3:22

needed work and detail on from

3:25

the Neil Kinnock and John Smith era.

3:27

So for example, the commitment

3:30

to rejoin the social chapter was

3:32

already in place, a commitment to

3:34

a minimum wage was in place,

3:37

a commitment to hold an election

3:40

on electoral reform was in place.

3:42

John Smith had set up the

3:44

social justice commission of which David

3:47

Miliband was a player and

3:49

some of those policies were already

3:52

emerging. So the

3:54

canvas was by no means blank, it was

3:56

pretty full. Now things had to be as

3:58

I say developed in detail, devolution of. Scottish

4:00

Parliament was already a commitment. Now how

4:02

this was going to be done and

4:04

so on had to be worked through.

4:07

And there were other things that were

4:09

being carefully worked through behind the scenes,

4:11

the Bank of England independence, the

4:14

Northern Ireland peace process and

4:16

so on. But there was

4:18

a huge amount already in place. Starmer

4:21

chose to begin with a

4:24

blank page and that is

4:26

hugely challenging. Policy

4:28

development from nothing.

4:31

And at times it has

4:34

been haphazard. And when you choose

4:36

to test everything with such intensity

4:38

with focus groups, opinion polls and

4:40

all the rest of it, it

4:42

becomes pretty fraught and

4:46

not subject to more

4:48

intense scrutiny, which brings

4:50

us to the 28 billion.

4:53

Now on the whole, Rachel Reeves

4:56

has followed the Gordon Brown rule

4:58

that everything must be costed.

5:01

And she navigates

5:03

the insane

5:06

pre-election tax and spend

5:08

debate, sometimes

5:10

with great authority.

5:13

She's seen it done before with Brown. And

5:16

so they know it's

5:18

crazy. They know it's unfair. They know

5:20

the bar is much higher with

5:23

the Labour Party in opposition than the Tories,

5:25

the media bar. And

5:28

so she has learned how to

5:30

play a lot of the game.

5:32

So because it's absurd, you find

5:34

one popular tax rights, in her

5:36

case, the non-dom tax, Gordon Brown,

5:38

things like the one off on

5:40

privatized utilities and so on. And

5:44

use that as a protective shield to

5:46

claim you can transform the country. And

5:48

on the whole, the media buy this.

5:50

The media are obsessed with income tax

5:52

and so on. And there's

5:55

very little space there.

5:57

So that is kind of a big deal It's

6:00

not necessary. And

6:02

so our fiscal rules, although

6:05

the nature of the fiscal rules

6:07

is important as to the space

6:09

you have in government. And

6:13

the degree to which you

6:15

rule out tax is also

6:17

important. So Ed Balls mentioned

6:19

the other week when

6:22

Rachel Reeves announced she wasn't going to

6:24

move on corporation tax beyond its current

6:27

level. She wasn't going to put it

6:29

up throughout the whole of the next

6:31

parliament. Again, it's sort of echo with

6:33

Gordon Brown on income

6:35

tax before the 97 election. But

6:39

Balls rightly observed that actually he and

6:41

Brown in the build up to 97

6:43

were very careful

6:45

about what they ruled out and

6:48

still left quite a lot of space

6:51

for what became known as stealth

6:53

tax rises. Gordon Brown

6:55

got himself into the odd, slightly contorted

6:58

position of being famous for his stealth

7:00

taxes, a contradiction in terms. But

7:03

it was highly effective because

7:05

the media was reassured when they

7:07

heard about income tax being untouched

7:09

for a whole parliament. And

7:12

that sort of bought them off. And

7:14

then it gave labor space on

7:17

other issues. So

7:19

fiscal rules are important. John McDonald has

7:21

shown a chance to have fiscal rules.

7:25

But the precise wording of those rules are

7:27

crucial, not only in the build up to

7:29

an election, but

7:31

also what happens afterwards. Now

7:34

in that context, they

7:36

have already dumped

7:39

the 28 billion pouch, all

7:41

this kind of media thing. When

7:43

are they going to do it? They've got to do it. Well, they

7:46

have. Listen to the answers. Kia

7:48

Stalmer, although has used this figure of 28

7:50

billion. Then it began,

7:52

and it was Rachel Reeves who made the

7:54

announcement at a party conference a couple of

7:56

years ago and got praise

7:58

for it, actually. But

8:01

this is one of the complexities. So there are

8:03

some in Keir Starmer's office happy to brief against

8:06

Ed Miliband. Oh, he lost an election and

8:08

all this kind of stuff. But

8:10

it was Rachel Rees, who is a

8:14

deified vicar as far as Keir Starmer is

8:16

concerned, who made the announcement. So it's harder

8:18

for them to brief against her and they're

8:20

not. But

8:23

when she made the announcement, it was 28 billion

8:25

pounds of government borrowing.

8:28

That's already gone. They're now saying

8:30

that the figure is an accumulation

8:32

of existing government spending, private

8:35

sector investment, as well as

8:37

some government borrowings. It's gone.

8:39

But the media want to hear the words. It's gone,

8:42

which they will hear in the

8:44

coming days. But the

8:46

framing is a

8:48

mess because it

8:51

makes something that

8:53

should be exciting and

8:56

necessary appear defensive,

8:58

timid, something to be

9:00

dreaded. And that is

9:02

a sort of characteristic of the

9:05

Starmer project. So the

9:07

New Labour project was cautious and

9:09

incremental and defensive in many ways.

9:12

But Blair and Brown always made

9:14

it sound positive, partly through the

9:16

language. Prudence for a

9:19

purpose was, I think, the best of

9:21

the many New Labour slogans

9:24

because it conveyed

9:26

a sense that the

9:29

attempt to establish a

9:31

kind of fiscal macroeconomic

9:34

stability was being done

9:36

for a purpose, which was,

9:38

to put it,

9:41

a crude summary, social justice,

9:43

a space to improve public

9:45

services, to address issues

9:47

of inequality and so on. And

9:50

it was a really effective one. And

9:52

so although everything was incremental,

9:54

they managed through artistry partly

9:57

to make everything seem very

9:59

positive. The opposite is

10:01

happening here. Here is

10:03

an exciting, necessary policy,

10:05

which we'll come onto in a moment, which

10:08

I kind of feel they have to

10:10

hide and run away from, oh yeah,

10:13

we're retreating, we're retreating, is the kind

10:15

of briefing behind the scenes, yeah, we've

10:17

already retreated, or we're about to retreat,

10:19

retreat, retreat, retreat. And

10:22

so it is, you know, briefing, retreat

10:24

on childcare in schools,

10:26

and we'll do this, but not

10:29

much more, retreating, retreating, retreating. Now

10:32

some think that this

10:34

defensiveness is electorally potent

10:37

because if they

10:39

sound too positive, it implies a tax

10:41

rise or whatever. But I

10:43

think it is a problem.

10:46

And so if you will have clocked

10:48

who don't follow politics closely, the

10:50

substance of the policy, and

10:52

we'll just say, oh yeah, they're running away from this, oh

10:54

yeah, what's this, oh yeah, the Tories have got them on

10:56

the run on this, Tories brackets 28 points

10:59

behind in the polls. So

11:01

part of it is a

11:04

mishandling of the message. In

11:07

the ridiculous pre-election tax and

11:10

spend debate, it

11:12

was a mistake to pluck this figure of £28 billion out,

11:16

because in the media, all you're asked

11:18

about, if you're Labour, is how you're

11:20

going to pay for it. Black holes,

11:22

borrowing will cause interest rate rises. It

11:24

was a really interesting contrast. Jeremy

11:28

Hunt has found, it said, £20

11:31

billion for tax

11:34

cuts. And no one says, well, where have

11:36

you got these £20 billion from? And

11:40

when the school ruse started collapsing in this

11:42

run-down country, the government said, yeah, we'll find

11:44

new money for this. It won't come from

11:47

the existing budget. And they say, well, thank

11:49

God it's new money and not from the

11:51

existing budgets. But no one says, well,

11:53

where's this money coming from? What about the black hole and

11:55

all this kind of stuff that

11:57

in this kind of pre-election, That

12:00

is how Labour is treated if

12:03

there are precise figures

12:05

of this nature which

12:08

imply investment. However,

12:10

once they had done that, you can't

12:13

undo it. You know,

12:15

well, they can, they're going to. They

12:18

have. But the

12:20

focus should always have

12:22

been on the ends. And

12:25

what has happened in the United

12:27

States with Biden's equivalent, which

12:30

has generated jobs and

12:32

economic growth. And

12:34

then you look at some of the specifics,

12:36

like home insulation. You know, because

12:38

of this retreat, retreat, it sounds like a threat. But

12:42

in Italy, for example, with a much

12:44

milder climate, they've had a

12:46

massive home insulation project. It's

12:49

been a huge success. Energy

12:51

bills come down. Dependency on energy

12:53

goes down. And you're in a

12:56

better place. Borrowing to

12:58

invest for fruitful outcomes

13:01

that enhance people's lives.

13:04

This goes back to another thing, you know, and it

13:06

is difficult in a build up to an election when

13:08

tax and spend is a trap. And

13:11

people like Morgan McSweeney, you

13:13

know, the campaign's director, is

13:15

always saying Labour always loses

13:17

tax and spend elections. But

13:21

it is where the need to

13:24

be a political teacher becomes

13:27

fundamental. You

13:29

don't get into the mess of guaranteeing 28

13:32

billion come what may. But

13:35

you say that we want an

13:37

honest, grown up debate. This

13:39

is what we feel we need to do as

13:43

part of our green recovery program.

13:46

It will involve borrowing to

13:48

invest. We hope

13:51

to reach that figure. But

13:53

we're not going to pretend it

13:55

can be guaranteed irrespective of what

13:58

happens to the economy. to

14:00

interest rates and all the rest of it, but

14:03

we're going to aim high. We

14:05

are right to aim high because we're

14:07

in competition with America and the European

14:10

Union who are aiming high. Because

14:13

the benefits of such investment

14:16

will be huge. Anyway

14:18

it's unavoidable to meet our target,

14:21

which we are proud of, for

14:23

2030, our green targets

14:25

for 2030, which incidentally will

14:28

still be in place. And

14:31

if they don't watch it, there

14:33

will then be an endless focus

14:35

on the means to reaching those

14:37

targets. British

14:40

elections, somewhat unfairly, are always

14:42

a focus on means rather

14:44

than ends. So one of

14:46

the problems with the mission

14:49

statement, however admirable about economic growth

14:51

being the highest of the G7,

14:54

there's going to be how,

14:56

how, how between

14:58

now and the election. And

15:01

they're incredibly ambitious green

15:04

targets. If they

15:06

drop or appear to drop

15:08

the means to meeting them,

15:10

partly one of the means,

15:12

which is investment

15:14

in new forms of

15:16

energy, investment in being

15:18

less dependent on energy

15:21

in Britain's notoriously, what's

15:23

the word, uninsulated homes. I know that's not a

15:26

word, but you know what I mean. Suddenly

15:29

becomes all a kind of mess. And

15:31

there's a wider issue as well

15:34

about an assessment of

15:36

the mood of the electorate.

15:40

It is right to say on the

15:42

whole, though not always actually, that

15:45

when tax and spend is the overriding

15:48

issue, Labour loses elections.

15:51

The media just don't allow it to win.

15:54

But look at the mood of the electorate,

15:56

I think probably since the 2008 crash. the

16:00

financial crash. And

16:02

it is restive and impatient.

16:05

It's not the same electorate that

16:09

voted in New Labour in 1997

16:12

with their five tiny pledges and

16:14

so on. It is an

16:16

electorate that couldn't make up its mind

16:18

in 2010 and a rare

16:21

peacetime coalition emerged. It's the

16:23

electorate that voted for Brexit.

16:25

It's the electorate in Scotland

16:27

that has voted repeatedly until

16:29

now perhaps for a party

16:31

wanting independence. It

16:34

is a kind of clearly

16:36

the polls show this and Labour

16:38

know this is an electorate hungry

16:40

for change and

16:42

somehow they need to convey

16:44

that sense of hope instead of just briefly they're

16:47

not going to do this, they're not going to

16:49

do that, they're not going to do this. Oh

16:52

the fiscal rules are going to be so

16:54

tight that you can trust us. And

16:57

it's important, I'd say the fiscal rules by

16:59

the way are important in government as well

17:01

as before government. There's

17:03

a wonderfully vivid interview

17:07

on YouTube with Jim Callahan who

17:09

incidentally was a very good

17:12

interviewee but it

17:14

was after the devaluation crisis in 1967

17:18

where Callahan left

17:20

the Treasury. He was chancellor during

17:23

the devaluation crisis and

17:25

he does say just that. He said the

17:27

bar seems to be much higher for a

17:29

Labour government. He said we inherited an economic

17:31

mess but the Tories weren't

17:34

forced to devalue. The bar is high.

17:36

Well it's just the reality, it is.

17:38

The markets and the media hover

17:42

and I think one of the insights

17:44

of that new Labour period that was

17:47

enduring or should endure is

17:49

you need that macroeconomic stability

17:53

to endure and

17:56

to introduce lasting reform

17:58

And one of the problems even with the. Forty Five

18:00

Government actually was that they

18:03

were forced to devalue. It

18:05

lost all their legendary reforming

18:07

verve. From then, they can

18:09

I just swamp and Nineteen

18:11

Fifty And then and them

18:13

were out quite soon after

18:15

that. And really, Harold Wilson

18:17

never recovered from the devaluation

18:19

crisis and Sixty Seven on

18:22

some levels, He didn't have

18:24

the same vitality and self

18:26

confidence, though his political skills

18:28

were brilliant, er, up. Until

18:30

his. Retirement. See,

18:32

you need that thomas stability,

18:35

but you also need. Purpose.

18:38

And the clarity of that purpose

18:40

needs to be conveyed with the

18:43

of and radical vitality. And

18:45

it's wholly different from Ninety Seven,

18:47

where the economy was growing, Britain's

18:49

still in the single market, and

18:52

so on. It's more challenging,

18:54

but there the challenge needs to

18:56

be met with grace or vibrancy.

18:59

Than. The sort of incrementalist of

19:01

new labour anyway. So. There

19:04

are many factors involved in

19:06

the mess they've got into

19:08

over this policy, and it

19:10

is. That

19:12

it is depressing actually am because

19:14

you do need to think big

19:16

and sometimes convey a thoughts before

19:18

intellects. I'm erasers Been told by

19:20

Gordon Brown and a month her

19:23

conversations without us to Darling before

19:25

he died, he moves. There is

19:27

money and government. You don't need

19:29

to pledge and advance are always

19:31

ways of finding money. Government. Well,

19:34

that's true, but only up to

19:36

a point. So even Gordon Brown,

19:38

inheriting a growing economy and Ninety

19:41

Ninety seven ah, found he had

19:43

to introduce stealth taxes knew he

19:45

would have to. They had to

19:47

use the Pf I initiative to

19:49

get money into building hospitals and

19:51

so on. It was not that

19:53

easy and in the end of

19:55

course they had put up national

19:58

insurance, which was a substantial. Price

20:00

to pay for improvements

20:02

in the Nhs. So.

20:05

Kiss I'm Rachel Reeves is

20:07

be very careful about how

20:10

they frame the necessary fiscal

20:12

rules and to show the

20:14

purpose. Behind. That

20:17

need for that macroeconomic stability

20:19

and hail their plans for

20:22

this green recovery program. It's

20:24

not something to be ashamed

20:26

about, It's the interesting thing.

20:28

of course it would give

20:30

Starmine. This rush policy on

20:33

a blank canvas from just

20:35

a few years ago is

20:37

costs. One of the things

20:39

that swayed him was Biden

20:41

one in the Us election

20:44

for years ago pledge. To

20:46

do this, it wasn't a vote

20:48

loser. Now bags

20:50

deeply unpopular, but it's for

20:53

other reasons. It's not over.

20:55

This has been a success

20:57

and of Britain doesn't do

20:59

it. The European Union during

21:01

America are doing it and

21:03

Britain would just fall behind

21:05

at the sort of isolated

21:07

island with low productivity. and

21:09

all the rest of it

21:11

sucks. Policymaking, presentation of policy

21:13

needs to be. Quick

21:15

from thought about in the build up

21:18

tonight as of could say ninety. Seven,

21:20

there's a Friday and slips to the next

21:22

election by, right by the way that every

21:24

policy needs to be been proved or follow

21:26

Blair very closely in the build up to

21:29

Ninety Seven, He once said to me, i'm

21:31

going of for a few days on my

21:33

own. To read through every

21:35

single policy proposal to make

21:37

sure it's bomb proof of

21:40

for the election, knowing that

21:42

previous elections have been blown

21:44

apart by some imprecise policy

21:46

area same his do with

21:48

fundamental things like the economy

21:50

or defense their right to

21:52

do that. but again, it

21:54

raises the question. what is

21:56

the nature of bomb proof

21:58

and a period all. The. Mountainous.

22:01

Challenges nothing will have

22:04

to meet. flourish, Now

22:19

I think it's time to go

22:21

over to all of you if

22:23

you want to join in our

22:25

never ending debate in the rock'n'roll

22:28

politics co operative. It's steep Rick

22:30

fourteen at I cloud.com but Steve

22:32

rec one for at I cloud.com

22:34

and we are going to return

22:37

to the twenty eight billion because

22:39

some of you with this latest

22:41

briefing with been about so eight

22:43

briefings to pick different newspapers on

22:45

different days but the lady spot

22:48

from The Guardian. Seem pretty definitive.

22:50

The figure will be dumped, the

22:52

government will borrow about a third,

22:54

the rest will cut. You know

22:56

that the anyway, it's familiar. I

22:58

mean they've kind of sad. It's

23:00

sad. but they haven't yet uttered

23:02

the words. And because another issue

23:04

for Kiss Starmer and public sees

23:07

as to see his he went

23:09

up to focus group saying you

23:11

know he's no one is what

23:13

he stands for, He flip flops

23:15

and some and curious about to

23:17

do something on labor's most distinctive.

23:20

Policy. Yeah,

23:22

Anyway, it's bloody hopping in

23:24

a position of spicy labour

23:26

in opposition and it's nerve

23:29

wracking as an election moves

23:31

into view spot that role

23:33

of being political teachers explaining

23:36

why you are proposing something

23:38

radical and even with the

23:40

media and it's mad focus

23:43

on while you know the

23:45

see you're planning. Spent ten

23:47

p on. hospital

23:50

improvements but would that leave a

23:52

black cold and twenty thirty two

23:54

when skills can be all of

23:56

that anyway and it's insane and

23:58

is damaging button That's just the

24:01

media climate and the build up to an

24:03

election. It's lazy from the media. But

24:08

why? Why is it worth

24:10

it? What are the benefits? Anyway,

24:12

over to all of you. We're going to come to that in a minute.

24:15

But as I said at the beginning, we

24:18

have got some great stuff on

24:20

the reemergence of the Northern Ireland

24:22

Assembly, a moment of epic

24:25

significance that took shape a

24:27

few days ago, and

24:30

first of all, I say from the Reverend

24:32

Cannon, Paul Bournard. He's

24:34

been following this incredibly

24:36

closely. His church

24:38

is in Dublin, but he

24:41

is from Northern Ireland.

24:43

He goes there all the time to watch

24:45

his local football team, but be much more

24:48

significant to this. He follows very closely developments

24:51

in Northern Ireland politics, as well

24:53

as his base in Dublin. So

24:56

for first, it's not often you get

24:58

upbeat news from Northern Ireland, but we

25:01

definitely got some last week. The DUP

25:03

number 10 deal got over the line

25:05

and the assembly and executive are back

25:07

up and running. This undoubtedly

25:09

is a good thing for the people

25:11

of Northern Ireland. I think a sense

25:13

of relief can be felt as everything

25:15

finally sorted back into place. It

25:18

was as fascinating as it was

25:20

nail biting to see Sir Geoffrey

25:22

Donaldson of the pragmatically of the

25:24

DUP. Sell the deal to

25:26

the more doctrinaire elements of the party. It

25:28

really was. Paul sent me a

25:30

clip from Donaldson's speech in the

25:33

comments, and it was a kind of mesmerizing

25:36

few minutes. Close observers

25:38

of these going to the top of

25:40

noticed a change in Donaldson's rhetoric as

25:42

the deal approached finalisation. He

25:44

moved from saying no to

25:46

actually facing down the hard elements

25:48

of unionism. And

25:51

Paul mentions the speech in the

25:53

comments reflecting this position. He deserves

25:55

credit for this and this

25:57

achievement shouldn't be underestimated. As

26:00

for the deal itself, within the context of

26:02

the chaos of Brexit, it seems a good

26:05

deal for everyone. The rough

26:07

edges of the Windsor framework have

26:09

been sanded down enough to give

26:11

the DUP political cover to retake

26:13

their storm and seats. They

26:15

should be reassured that not one

26:17

poll suggests that a border poll

26:19

should be called or would lead

26:21

to constitutional change. On

26:24

the other hand, the result of the previous

26:26

Assembly election can now be

26:28

rightfully respected. It's incredibly important

26:30

to do this. So now

26:33

it's over to the new executive

26:35

to make good, positive changes. Let's

26:38

wish them well, both green and

26:40

orange. It is

26:42

another really interesting moment in the extraordinary

26:44

history of Northern

26:47

Ireland. And the

26:49

internal dynamics of the DUP, as Paul

26:51

has mentioned, has been just on a

26:53

kind of nerve-shredding edge

26:55

for months. But

26:58

now it is up and running. Now,

27:00

our French correspondent, Dominique Adjoul,

27:03

challenged Paul. This was about a

27:05

year ago when he detected expediency

27:07

at the top of the DUP.

27:11

And this is her response to

27:13

the Assembly up and

27:15

running. I'm delighted for

27:17

the people of Northern Ireland now that they will

27:19

have the representation and governance of which they've been

27:21

doing. By the way, Dominique is from Northern Ireland.

27:24

She lives in France. Now

27:27

they have the governance which they've been deprived for

27:29

over two years. I am

27:31

puzzled, however, about aspects of the deal.

27:34

The DUP leader has on multiple occasions

27:37

claimed to have changed the Northern Ireland

27:39

Protocol and the Windsor Agreement, despite

27:42

the fact that not a single amendment has been

27:44

made to either. Given

27:46

that the Assembly will have the right

27:48

to assess the impact of any future

27:50

changes in EU laws on Northern Ireland,

27:53

Does this not make it more likely that

27:55

the UK government will simply avoid the divergence

27:58

which the hard work has been made? Brett

28:00

City is so consistently demanded one

28:02

cabinet meeting per year to be

28:04

held in North Not and serves

28:06

only to underline the symbolic nature

28:09

of the deal. Given that successive

28:11

governments are not bound to honor

28:13

the deal is therefore has a

28:15

limited. Shelf life so that

28:17

we are. She. Adds is

28:20

a lot going on in France

28:22

but today belongs to my beloved

28:24

Northern Ireland. It is ah interesting.

28:27

What got the deal over the

28:29

like a brick fit as a

28:31

poll also suggests remains a huge

28:33

chaos. It issues but and I

28:36

think you are right Dominic of

28:38

the implication is that divergence becomes

28:40

incredibly risky. A does for many

28:42

reasons but in the context of

28:45

nor know and therefore the heart

28:47

breaks the tear vision. Has

28:49

always been challenged by the

28:52

implications for Northern Ireland. And

28:55

the more the Uk diverges the

28:57

more problematic and just and and

29:00

distant nord Man becomes from the

29:02

Uk and the or other points

29:04

are also the case. These.

29:06

Things are always fragile but

29:09

I noticed you pull are

29:11

united in welcoming the return

29:13

of the assembly. Jeff Straits

29:15

has read the entire document

29:17

which of I bet Poland

29:19

Dominic have as well i

29:21

haven't is and he says

29:23

that us to. Jeff.

29:26

And I have both reds James Joyce's

29:28

Ulysses in it's entirety. We have a

29:30

book that many critics of summarized as

29:32

being about some chap who puts around

29:35

Dublin for dates. Maybe this come On

29:37

paper can be viewed in the same

29:39

way. a Mighty Tones that essentially says

29:41

not much at all. I love reading

29:44

these things. I'm an anorak for the

29:46

stuff. and I've actually put the Good

29:48

Friday agreement up. There is a beautifully

29:50

well crafted piece of writing, but a

29:53

sense do this. Command paper is a

29:55

repackaged Windsor. Framework. yep

29:58

but as he also out It is

30:00

interesting. The Windsor framework

30:02

is the basis of this. But

30:06

he acknowledges there is a

30:08

fig leaf that the DUP could

30:10

fashion as a precursor as

30:13

they return to power sharing. And

30:16

partly the politics of Northern Ireland is

30:18

a kind of artfulness. I

30:21

don't necessarily compare it to

30:24

James Joyce and its artistry. The

30:27

Good Friday Agreement, which I have read, is

30:30

artful in the most positive

30:32

way possible. It kind

30:34

of smooths

30:37

over unresolved issues

30:39

with brilliance. And

30:41

there's a bit of this this time as well.

30:44

But sometimes the artistry, if

30:46

it leads to which it has done

30:48

this time, return

30:50

of the assembly, can

30:54

work on itself. So you get the assembly

30:56

back on the basis of a

30:59

kind of word in a document.

31:01

But if the assembly gets back

31:04

and starts to work and the

31:06

people of Northern Ireland respond positively,

31:08

can the assembly be up and

31:10

running? We are in an interesting

31:13

place again. Ned Derek

31:15

makes a fascinating point

31:17

about this whole devolution

31:19

project. He says, it

31:21

seems to me that the subtlety of the 1997 devolution settlement

31:23

lies in the

31:27

way that it requires the devolved

31:29

administrations to make devolution work on

31:32

its own terms. And

31:34

he points out this has happened with

31:36

Mark Dreyford in Wales that's eluded the

31:39

SMP in Scotland under three leaders because

31:41

the SMP has no vested interest in

31:43

making the Holy Root system work as

31:46

to do so would undermine their very

31:48

raison d'etre. But the same

31:50

failure to make devolution work properly is also

31:53

undermined the SMP's credibility as

31:55

a competent governing party. The

31:58

same issue will come to the foreign north. than

32:00

Ireland now that at least for the

32:02

time being the DUP has come in

32:04

from its self-imposed exile, Sinn

32:06

Féin will have to demonstrate its competence

32:08

in administering the sixth county statelet.

32:11

It seeks to abolish if it

32:14

is to have any long-term electoral

32:16

future. So has the 1997 devolution

32:19

settlement effectively stopped

32:21

the move towards constitutional

32:23

independence, at least

32:25

for the foreseeable future, in

32:28

the sense that if the

32:30

independence or nationalist parties roll

32:33

successfully, it's a tribute

32:35

to devolution and not independence. And

32:38

if they don't, they sort of undermine their own

32:41

potency electrically. Yeah,

32:44

the devolution is really interesting.

32:48

And you raise one of

32:50

the many fascinating consequences that

32:52

arise from it. And this

32:55

genius says long-term final rock and roll

32:57

politics at Edinburgh and podcast follower. See

32:59

you at the Edinburgh Festival. We're

33:02

going to be delving deep on a lot of

33:05

themes at the Edinburgh

33:07

Festival. And having a laugh as

33:09

well. Thank

33:24

you, many others on Northern

33:26

Ireland, but we're running out of time.

33:29

So if it's okay with you, I'm going

33:31

to move on to I've got loads

33:33

and loads on this briefing that

33:35

Labour or one of the many

33:37

briefings they're going to dump their

33:39

£28 billion commitment

33:41

and one from Nick

33:44

Radcliffe, who

33:46

has been in some ways our

33:49

environment stroke green climate

33:51

change correspondent, who I

33:53

met at the Edinburgh Festival. And we had a

33:55

long talk about why you do more on climate

33:58

change got me thinking. Anyway,

34:00

and he by the way berates me

34:02

sometimes focusing on growth which I still

34:04

do But he

34:06

says what a depressing week both for growth

34:08

heads like you and green heads like me

34:11

It seems to me that by dropping

34:13

his one bold signature policy commitment Starmer

34:16

is jeopardizing both labor's likelihood

34:18

of winning and its

34:20

prospects of success in government if it

34:22

should win He's feeding the flip-flop narrative

34:25

and the idea that they want to power without any

34:27

clear idea of what to do with it I

34:31

think you need a second part of

34:33

your focus group to monitor for progressives

34:35

who simply can't stomach a Labour Party

34:37

It will no longer advocate for the

34:39

climate the EU the poor progressive taxation

34:41

public spending or humanity in the Middle

34:43

East One

34:47

of the interesting things is to say focus

34:50

groups the Westminster

34:52

based media lead to

34:54

a kind of extreme caution

34:58

In the new Labour leadership and advice from

35:00

those who were around in 97 and so

35:02

on You know Scotland

35:04

is one really interesting example The

35:07

SMP are in crisis like the Tory party

35:09

are in crisis But

35:11

they will fight the next election From

35:14

the left and it's quite

35:17

interesting the by-election that Labour won in

35:19

Scotland The candidate and

35:21

Eddie Kissamo was up when he was up was

35:23

kind of pitch more to the left I

35:26

don't think Nick we must

35:28

have this discussion that they are dumping some

35:30

of these things It's just

35:32

they don't know how to deal

35:34

with the tax and spend on

35:36

slot And put the

35:38

case for this policy now as I've

35:40

already said there is a way of

35:43

doing it I think and you need

35:45

to be powerful political teachers and it

35:47

is tricky with the British media But

35:49

I think you're right to suggest there

35:51

might be consequences if they don't do

35:53

this negative ones In

35:55

terms of some voters turning

35:58

away although, you know the poll

36:00

are what the polls are at

36:02

the moment. Now

36:04

John from Aberdeen says on

36:07

the same theme, K.

36:09

Summers repeatedly shows himself to be

36:11

spineless, weak and dishonest. He changes

36:14

his mind when expedient, although

36:16

expedience is not a bad thing, John.

36:19

It's just whether it's expediency in a

36:21

way that is going

36:23

to lead them to have a win

36:27

and the space then to

36:29

govern effectively. But John says

36:33

he won't give his surname because he's

36:35

a member of the Labour Party and he'll be

36:37

expelled if his surname

36:40

is given out in the pocket as well. Senior

36:42

figures in the Labour Party do listen, John,

36:45

and your anonymity is

36:49

to be advised for the time being because

36:51

I know you are an

36:54

intense critic. Thank

36:56

you. A related

36:59

question from River McElrayth.

37:02

I hope that's the correct

37:04

pronunciation of the surname. What

37:06

do you think the impact will be of

37:09

the growing disaffection among young voters towards Labour?

37:11

My partner, who I consider to be

37:13

one of your barometer voters for new

37:16

listeners, we have barometer voters

37:18

in the Rock and Roll Politics Cooperative

37:21

who are guiding us through their

37:23

thoughts in the build-up to the

37:26

election. Anyway, back to the email. My

37:30

partner is one of

37:32

the cooperative's barometer voters. Having

37:34

voted UKIP, Brexit and Conservative

37:36

is now planning to

37:38

vote green. That's

37:41

quite a journey. Most of my friends,

37:43

including active Labour members, are also planning

37:45

to vote green because of

37:48

Labour's stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

37:52

That, too, is an issue. Jason Cowley,

37:54

the editor of the New

37:56

States, wrote quite a good piece in the Sunday

37:58

Times the other day about the

38:01

impact of this and the initial

38:03

incident, Kierstama, you know, I must not be

38:06

Corbyn, I will not be Corbyn, to

38:08

be sort of seemingly

38:10

unqualified in his support for

38:12

Israel. Anyway, yeah, well,

38:15

let's see, I'd say the opinion polls, River,

38:18

suggest, you

38:20

say, could this have more of an impact

38:22

than pollsters currently realise? Polls

38:24

are often wrong. And

38:26

we forget this quite often, because polls

38:28

do determine the mood. And there's

38:31

no doubt at the moment, Labour

38:33

are perceived as a government in waiting.

38:36

And with good courts, and many anticipate

38:38

a landslide, it is based on the

38:40

opinion polls. And yet when you explore

38:43

themes like the mood of young

38:45

people on issues about the Middle East,

38:48

the green economy and so on,

38:51

the mood in Scotland, which tends to

38:53

be more responsive to a kind of

38:56

more left of centre message, which is certainly

38:58

the pitch the SNP has

39:01

been making in recent years,

39:03

and so on. It

39:06

is, I think it's a

39:08

more complex electorate now

39:11

than in 1997, because of what's

39:13

happened in the many, many

39:16

intervening years. Okay,

39:19

yeah, blimey, we just

39:22

I can't resist this one. And then what I think

39:24

we can do is so many brilliant questions that I

39:26

think we might have to do a one

39:28

of our question time specials later

39:30

this week, if the if the

39:32

legendary podmasters have the space for

39:34

me to do it. But I want

39:36

to do this one, because as

39:38

you know, this is from Archie Dempster, and

39:41

then I'll kind of summarize some of the

39:43

other brilliant questions which we'll try and come

39:45

to. He's

39:47

been analysing the Lord

39:50

Frosty Frost and the scope

39:52

for a biography of this

39:54

mania, this unelected buffoon, who

39:56

is dominating kind of the right of politics

39:58

and has wrecked the British economy and

40:02

our capacity to move around with his Brexit deal.

40:04

There's been no one like him. Anyway,

40:07

he's been delving deep about Frosty Frost.

40:10

Apparently, he was useless even when he was CEO

40:13

of the Scotch

40:15

Whisky Association, which was his

40:17

job prior to negotiating the

40:19

most important deal

40:22

for Britain since 1945. During

40:26

his tenure, the Scottish Parliament legislated to put

40:28

a minimum price on alcohol to

40:31

address the nation's perceived problem with

40:33

harmful drinking. It was essentially a

40:35

health improvement measure. Frosty

40:37

led a challenge to this based

40:39

on the proper, and he took the

40:41

Scottish, took to the Scottish courts and

40:43

lost. He took to the English courts

40:46

and lost. He took to the European

40:48

courts and lost. He lost in every

40:50

court he submitted his challenge to, about

40:52

seven in all, costing a ton of

40:54

money. He moved on shortly

40:56

afterwards, but not before launching a broadside against

40:59

the city of Edinburgh. That

41:02

is part of a pattern with Lord

41:04

Frosty Frost that everything

41:07

he touches is a disaster area. It's

41:10

one reason why this coup against Sunak

41:12

won't work. Frost is involved, and it

41:14

will be a disaster. We are living

41:16

through the consequences of Lord Frosty Frost

41:18

in so many ways. A

41:22

Labour equivalent who had

41:24

caused such havoc would be an exile.

41:27

Frost gets a column in the Daily Telegraph

41:30

and pontificates grandly as if everything

41:33

he's touched has been a triumph,

41:36

and it's been the opposite. Anyway,

41:38

look, there's some brilliant

41:41

questions. More suggestions of

41:43

slogans from Robert Hillier

41:45

and Alex Bell from Switzerland.

41:49

Labour actually is in South Africa,

41:51

and we're reflecting on possible slogans

41:53

for Labour. There's a profound question

41:56

about centralisation and

41:59

devolution. of power

42:01

from Dan Cariad which would

42:03

need a whole podcast. Alison

42:06

Keys reflects on whether

42:08

Sunak is as safe

42:12

in one level, because I don't think the crew will

42:14

work, whether safe as

42:17

that. John

42:19

Chambers also wonders whether they might

42:22

dump him late February to

42:24

mid-May being a danger area. I

42:27

have a great question from Charlie Beaumont,

42:29

who is currently reading Bug from John

42:31

Stuart Mills by Richard Reeves. Oh yeah,

42:34

Richard Reeves used to work for Nick

42:37

Clegg. Do

42:39

you think there should be any justification of

42:42

using Mills observation that stupid

42:44

people join the Tory party?

42:47

Although he says it's probably very

42:49

unfair. Lord

42:51

Frosty Frost is stupid, Charlie, but not

42:53

all of them are. Danny

42:56

Evans, as you

42:58

said, probably not about the

43:00

coup, but nothing is impossible. If the

43:02

election is in November, this leaves enough

43:05

time for two more Tory leaders. They

43:07

could try out Badenoch and Frosty Frost.

43:10

Can you imagine Frosty Frost leading to

43:12

the then Labour can say what they

43:14

want and get a landslide? Venetia

43:18

came, does a lot

43:21

of canvassing, and she says

43:25

there is complete disillusionment with the Tories,

43:27

but not much enthusiasm for Stama. She

43:30

thinks a lot of Tory voters are just

43:32

not going to turn out at the general

43:34

election, which is really interesting. A

43:39

low poll means

43:41

the Tories lose, of course, but it

43:43

means the Labour government comes in with

43:46

limited enthusiasm at the beginning, although I

43:48

think they're going to get one hell

43:50

of a honeymoon for various reasons. Oh

43:54

yeah, Aymar McGinnis notices that

43:56

Lee Raleigh is out in the back

43:58

about the... rock and roll

44:01

politics cooperatives hero Lee Rowley parroting

44:04

the Tory slogan back to

44:06

square one hopeless

44:09

slogan because as he

44:12

says who came up with that idea most people go die

44:15

to get back to square one anyway

44:17

look we've got a fantastic questions they're just a

44:20

sample few so I haven't got time to reflect

44:22

on them all but I think you'll

44:24

have done your cooking had a whiskey

44:26

you know gone running

44:28

walked up some beautiful hillside

44:31

somewhere or swam

44:33

you can listen to podcasts while swimming these

44:35

days you know anyway

44:38

thanks so much for the questions keep

44:40

them coming in so if you could

44:43

leave a review that would be great

44:45

do subscribe tell your friends and family

44:47

to subscribe so the cooperative grows so

44:49

the depth of sense making develops even

44:52

more so if you could leave a

44:54

review those five star ones you know

44:56

nothing else please but

44:58

anyway thanks as ever for tuning in

45:01

and we need to

45:04

get together very soon

45:06

to make sense of

45:08

it all thank you

45:10

very much bye hello

45:12

host of Dan snows history at podcast

45:15

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45:17

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45:19

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45:21

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45:26

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45:33

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45:36

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