0:02

I'm Jason Palmer, one of the hosts of

0:04

The Intelligence, The Economist's daily current affairs

0:06

podcast. The Economist's award-winning

0:08

shows make sense of what matters.

0:10

From our special series on China's

0:12

president to our weekly podcasts on

0:15

business, technology, and American politics, our

0:17

journalists provide fair, in-depth reporting on

0:19

the events shaping the world. To

0:22

get the annual plan for less than $2.50 per

0:24

month, search for Economist Podcasts Plus

0:27

to start listening today. Hi,

0:33

I'm your inner dream monologue, and

0:35

you're fast asleep, so I'll be

0:38

quick. Great job using the

0:40

Colgate Optic White overnight teeth whitening pen

0:42

before bed. When used as directed,

0:44

it gives you a visibly whiter smile in

0:46

just seven days. So while

0:48

I fly and talk to animals, you're removing

0:50

teeth stains with ease. Sweet

0:52

dreams. And when you wake up,

0:55

keep on living life to the brightest. Colgate

0:57

Optic White. Find it at all major retailers.

1:07

Hello and welcome to Rock and

1:10

Roll Politics, the podcast with me, Steve

1:12

Richards. Thanks so much for tuning in.

1:15

And as ever, of course, we've

1:17

got a lot to cram in

1:19

in our time together. If

1:22

it's okay with you, there goes a text.

1:24

It always starts, you know, when I record,

1:26

the text start kind of piling in from

1:28

nowhere. Let me just silence

1:31

the phone or whatever you do. Okay,

1:33

so if it's well, that's just added

1:35

to the suspense on what I shall

1:38

be reflecting on. I will

1:40

do a kind of melange

1:43

of related themes,

1:46

the end of the Tory

1:48

era via the

1:51

by-elections of last week,

1:53

and then reflect on a fascinating

1:56

quote in Tom Baldwin's new

1:58

biography of Kirch. It's a

2:01

sort of kind of authorized biography. There

2:04

was a fascinating quote, it's been serialized in the

2:06

Times, there was a fascinating quote from

2:09

Angela Rayner, which I thought I would

2:12

just read out to you and

2:14

then analyse for a bit before we

2:16

return to your amazing questions

2:18

on a whole range of themes.

2:21

And if you want to join in our never ending

2:24

debate, you know, Dylan is on a

2:26

never ending tour, we're on a never

2:28

ending debate. Do email

2:30

any reflections, questions

2:32

to [email protected],

2:36

steverech14

2:40

at icloud.com. And

2:43

just a few notices before then.

2:46

Yeah, for those of you who kindly

2:48

subscribe to Patreon, the Patreon version of

2:51

Rock and Roll Politics,

2:53

there is a new bonus podcast

2:55

out there for you. It's

2:58

in the series I'm doing under

3:00

the theme of preparing for

3:02

power then and now. And

3:05

it's looking back at interviews I did when

3:07

I was political editor of the New Statesman

3:10

in the build up to the 1997

3:12

election, the last time Labour

3:14

appeared to be really on

3:17

the verge of power, the

3:19

kind of widespread assumption that they were

3:22

going to win was already

3:24

set. And I'm finding

3:26

it really fascinating, this series, if you

3:28

haven't subscribed, I do recommend it. It

3:31

helps us with the great legendary Podmasters

3:33

produce the podcast. But

3:36

more than that, it's I think the

3:39

because we can just we as in

3:41

all of us on Patreon can delve

3:43

deep around one theme. It's

3:46

really interesting. And

3:48

anyway, the bonus one this month is

3:50

on an interview I did with Claire

3:53

Short in the summer of

3:55

1996, August 96, early August. And

3:59

so left the than a year before that 97 general

4:02

election, one of the

4:04

themes emerging at the time was the

4:07

centralization of new labour, the

4:09

control free query had

4:11

become a term. And

4:14

Claire Short gave me this interview. She

4:18

was in the charity cabinet, which

4:20

I thought and indeed, Peter

4:22

Mandelson, who was in charge, Tony

4:24

Blair just got on holiday thought

4:27

as well could bring down the

4:29

whole new labour project. And

4:31

it's a fascinating forensic

4:35

attack on Tony

4:37

Blair being captured by those

4:39

she called the people in

4:42

the dark. She describes new

4:44

labour as a lie

4:46

in the way it dismisses some of

4:48

the great achievements of the past. And

4:51

so anyway, it was

4:53

at the time seen

4:57

as an incredible onslaught

5:00

made all it led all

5:02

the TV bulletins, radio bulletins,

5:04

newspapers, the Guardian asked me to do a

5:06

long thing about how it had all happened.

5:10

Peter Mandelson summoned me to Labour

5:12

Party HQ to have a conversation

5:15

about it was talking Blair coming

5:17

back from France or wherever he

5:19

was. But I found

5:21

it very interesting to dissect because some of it

5:24

was a very intelligent early analysis

5:27

of some of the fault lines

5:29

of the new labour project.

5:33

It was partly fueled by anger without

5:35

a doubt she had just been demoted

5:37

in a shadow cabinet reshuffle. But

5:40

it was quite a few interesting

5:42

insights and quite a lot of

5:44

parallels with now when

5:47

kissed armour is criticized in different

5:49

ways. Anyway, I think

5:51

it's worth listening to. So do subscribe

5:53

and we'll get another bonus podcast out

5:56

to all of you soon. And

5:58

the next one actually will be an interview with Tony

6:00

Blair I did in the build up

6:02

to 97 because again it's interesting what

6:05

he knew then what he didn't

6:07

know would happen and unfold and

6:10

the kind of echoes with now

6:12

as Keir Starmer moves

6:15

towards that

6:17

nerve-shredding election campaign and then

6:20

almost certainly government in

6:22

a much more challenging context than Blairface

6:25

although it always seems

6:27

almost unbearably challenging as

6:30

you approach it in whatever context as a

6:32

Labour leader of the opposition so yeah

6:36

please subscribe also coming

6:38

up next month we're almost got

6:40

is it time rushing by

6:42

at the moment anyway in March

6:45

rock-and-roll politics is back

6:48

live for the

6:50

first time in 2024 election year

6:53

live at the rope

6:56

tackle art center in Shoreham

6:58

the legendary rope tackle that's

7:01

kind of in earlyish

7:03

March I haven't got the date on

7:06

me but you can get it on the

7:08

rope tackle website if you're on the south

7:10

coast or anywhere really get down to it

7:12

be fun and then I own

7:15

your mistakes I know off by heart March

7:18

the 26th live

7:21

at King's Place

7:23

for the first time this

7:25

year with a

7:27

brand new show we'll have had the budget

7:30

the build up to the kind

7:33

of local elections which have acquired an

7:35

even greater significance for obvious reasons and

7:37

so on anyway it will it will

7:40

all be fresh and the

7:42

great thing about these

7:44

venues is that as

7:46

members of the rock-and-roll politics cooperative which you

7:49

all are we can shake

7:51

the evening together and we will delve

7:53

deep and have fun and it will

7:56

be structured a few drinks during and

7:58

after Not

8:00

the kind of thing you get if I were

8:02

to book the o2 Center say Anyway,

8:05

look see you all Then

8:07

and the links for the tickets will

8:10

be on the blurb for this podcast

8:12

or you can go to the relevant websites

8:15

So yeah god what to choose

8:18

it was interesting about those by

8:20

elections. I thought John Curtis I

8:24

Play down and not kind of deliberately.

8:26

I'm not saying that that genius is

8:28

sort of overtly biased. He wouldn't be

8:31

in that job But

8:33

played down to some extent the degree to which

8:37

They really do show that we're on

8:40

the verge of Change

8:43

of government. I mean he played up the

8:45

significance of reform in

8:47

the by elections the The

8:50

vote the skills and the very low turnout

8:52

and some of you have written about that

8:55

In our never-ending debate on this podcast

8:58

will come to that shortly And

9:01

they're both of course valid observations to

9:03

make although some thought reform would

9:05

do even better than the percentage vote They

9:08

got in well in particular The

9:12

low turnout is a pretty common

9:14

factor in

9:17

by elections So

9:19

I don't think it's hugely significant of

9:21

though, of course We

9:24

have said and discussed on this

9:26

podcast many times a

9:28

slot Reflecting on

9:30

politics are freaks in Britain

9:34

most people don't think about it at all

9:37

and at a time of turmoil

9:41

Where both parties in different

9:43

ways have got

9:45

unresolved crises Much

9:48

deeper in the Tory party than Labour

9:50

at the moment, but both have You

9:54

will get a degree of indifference

9:58

amongst an electric electorate

10:00

who by instinct don't

10:02

follow politics closely. But

10:06

by elections don't often get huge

10:09

turnouts. I

10:11

still think the most significant thing was

10:14

that the swing in Wellenborough

10:18

kind of was the second biggest swing

10:20

in post-war by elections,

10:23

apparently only topped by the

10:26

Dudley by election, which

10:29

took place in December 1994. Now

10:34

that's one I remember vividly

10:37

because I covered it as the

10:39

BBC political correspondent. So

10:41

I was there the whole time. I'll

10:44

never forget it because it was just in the build

10:46

up to Christmas and the centre of

10:48

the constituency there was this huge

10:50

shopping centre, I think the biggest

10:53

in Europe. And

10:55

I had to do a piece of the camera down some bloody

10:58

slide in a fanfare, which

11:01

was a permanent picture in the constituency.

11:04

But the other thing I remember from

11:06

doing it, oh yeah, by the way, if you want to

11:08

laugh on YouTube, if

11:10

you click Steve Richards, Dudley

11:13

by election BBC or something, the

11:17

come up on the night, you know, the BBC

11:19

did a by election special with David Dimbleby. And

11:22

I'm there live in Dudley recording the

11:24

biggest swing in history.

11:27

But it's really interesting as

11:30

an example of being on the

11:32

ground and discovering things. And

11:34

I came back, I said it was December

11:36

94 Blair had been leader

11:39

for six months ish. He

11:42

got in in July 94. There

11:45

was still a long way to go before the general

11:47

election, which wasn't until May 1997. But

11:52

I remember coming back saying to anyone

11:55

who would listen, that's it

11:57

for the Tories. They've

11:59

lost. it, because wherever we went,

12:01

you had to do these box pops. It's one

12:03

of the artificial natures of box pops that they

12:06

had to be balanced. So

12:08

we had to find voices being

12:10

pro-Torey. And it was

12:12

really difficult to find in a

12:14

constituency that in 1992 had returned a Torey MP with a

12:18

whopping majority. And

12:22

although Blair would continue

12:24

to fight what he called his war

12:26

on complacency, a phrase, one

12:28

of many Blair's phrases that have been

12:31

transplanted into the current situation,

12:35

there was a clear

12:37

sense in that Dudley by election that

12:40

it was over for the Toreys, whatever

12:42

John Major did. And Major was

12:45

a far more supple,

12:47

thoughtful politician,

12:50

leader who had won an election,

12:52

had the authority of winning an

12:54

election than Sunak is now,

12:57

who has followed the chaos of the last 13, 14

13:00

years. He

13:02

had a cabinet of really

13:05

skillful, charismatic, weighty people, Ken

13:07

Clark, Michael Heseltine, and

13:10

others. It didn't matter.

13:12

The voters had turned

13:15

and weren't going to come back.

13:18

And Wellingborough, clearly

13:20

the mood was similar when you get a

13:22

swing on the Dudley North scale. That's,

13:26

I think, the conclusion that it's

13:28

over. And it's fascinating watching the

13:31

Torey MPs and their newspapers screaming

13:34

for tax cuts, as

13:36

if that kind of solves

13:39

it for them and the

13:41

economy. And yet the polls

13:44

suggest voters are more intelligent than that.

13:46

They can see that public services are

13:48

on their knees. They need

13:50

investment. They need reform as well. There should

13:53

be a grown up debate as we've had

13:55

on this podcast and we'll do again about

13:58

what the reform should be. everyone's

14:00

in favour of reform. It's

14:02

what it should be. But only

14:04

a few, Tony Blair

14:07

being one, I think, thinks

14:09

the spending level is

14:11

not that significant. It's

14:15

obvious that investment is

14:17

required as a

14:19

much more urgent priority than tax cuts.

14:22

And yet tax cuts, tax cuts, tax

14:24

cuts, even those surveys of voters show

14:27

that by huge margins they

14:32

want public spending to be

14:34

prioritised over tax cuts. And

14:36

that's not that new, to be honest. Surveys

14:38

often show that and then they vote for

14:40

the party proposing tax cuts. But

14:43

at the moment things are so stark.

14:47

And when you have an intelligent debate

14:49

about tax and spend, not easy in

14:51

the build up to an election, you

14:54

get voter support. The tax

14:56

rise that Gordon Brown introduced in his

14:59

budget was at 2002-2003. And the national insurance

15:04

rise to pay for a big increase

15:06

in spending on the NHS. The

15:09

funny telegraph did at a poll afterwards,

15:12

hoping and assuming voters

15:14

will give their thumbs down to

15:16

such a budget. It

15:18

turned out the headline was Brown's

15:20

budget the most popular in polling

15:22

history or something, because there

15:25

was a clear connection between

15:27

the tax rise and

15:29

the objective, spending

15:32

and improving the NHS. It

15:36

is much more complicated than

15:38

that. And it will be interesting to

15:40

see if Hunt, remember

15:43

his national insurance cut

15:46

announced at the end of last year, is

15:49

now in place. It was in place from

15:51

January. No impact

15:53

whatsoever on the Tories

15:55

standing in the opinion polls. It

15:58

kind of raises a question. of whether

16:01

Labour can dare to say

16:04

that tax cuts paid

16:07

for by proposed

16:09

brutal spending cuts

16:12

forwarded into the next Parliament are

16:15

a step too far and

16:17

they dare to oppose them.

16:20

I suspect that won't happen, they'll accept them.

16:23

But boy does that leave them in

16:25

a bind and they begin to

16:28

rule which I think Wellenborough in

16:30

particular suggests that they are going

16:32

to do combined with all

16:35

those other by-elections, remember the one in

16:37

Scotland in

16:39

the autumn and the

16:42

opinion polls and all soon

16:44

that carries on and on. You've got to admire

16:46

his energy. That

16:50

it is if he

16:52

has a grain of optimism and I sense

16:55

it's fading in him, it gets

16:57

you in the end when you

16:59

wake up each day to bleak

17:01

opinion polls and by-election defeats and

17:03

low personal ratings and a

17:05

party that's almost impossible to manage. You

17:08

would have to be superhuman to

17:11

transcend all of that and

17:13

I don't think he has. And

17:16

in Kistama he faces a really interesting

17:19

complicated opponent and

17:22

this was reinforced to me. As

17:24

you know, I've said here on the

17:26

podcast quite a few times, probably

17:29

too many that the

17:32

idea of him being boring is so banal

17:36

and simplistic and cliche

17:38

written just false. He's

17:41

I mean personally clearly he had

17:43

an extraordinary life as

17:45

Baldwin's book I think will

17:47

illustrate and with a range

17:49

of interests that a lot of voters can relate

17:52

to like football, kind

17:55

of learning the piano with fat boys slim and

17:57

all this kind of thing. He doesn't

17:59

have to pretend to be interested in football.

18:01

He's obsessed by football. Anyway,

18:04

and plays it as well as watch

18:06

Arsenal. But he's interesting

18:08

as well because he is so

18:10

unusual as a political figure.

18:12

Which brings me to a quote from

18:15

Angela Rayner that I read

18:17

in the Sunday Times, or the

18:19

Times serialization of Tom Baldwin's book.

18:21

And remember now, although

18:25

you wonder quite what they think of each other in

18:28

the depths of their privacy. But

18:32

in public, Stama and

18:34

Rayner worked together well. Angela

18:37

Rayner's interview with Tom Baldwin would

18:39

have been positive because she's not

18:41

going to say things that

18:43

will cause trouble at this point

18:45

in their relationship and in the

18:48

electoral cycle. And

18:50

anyway, as she would have known that Tom

18:52

Baldwin was sort of Kears choice

18:55

as author, it was originally going

18:57

to be instantly a ghost written

18:59

book. And Tom was going to

19:01

write up a book, but it

19:03

would have gone out in Kears name based

19:05

on many interviews with him. So this is kind

19:07

of authorized, authorized, authorized. And

19:09

Angela Rayner is being loyal, loyal,

19:12

loyal. And this quote

19:14

is not disloyalist. It's not like Claire

19:16

Short's onslaught, which you can reflect

19:19

on if you subscribe

19:21

to the Patreon version of Rock

19:23

and Roll politics, which

19:25

incidentally doesn't cost very

19:27

much. But anyway, here

19:30

is Tom Baldwin writing up

19:33

his interview with Angela

19:35

Rayner. She

19:37

goes on, even though he's leader of

19:39

the Labour Party, Kears is the least

19:41

political person I know in politics. That's

19:45

the quote from Angela. Then Tom

19:47

explaining why she thinks this is

19:49

both a strength and a weakness,

19:52

she continues. Sometimes you

19:54

have to understand where people are coming

19:56

from to understand their motives. And

19:59

I tried to help him. steer away from some

20:01

of the political pitfalls that can come

20:03

and bite you. His

20:05

natural instinct is forget

20:07

the politics. Is this right or

20:10

wrong? But

20:12

there's lots of grey in politics.

20:14

It's not necessarily as clear-cut as

20:17

that. Now,

20:19

I think this is very interesting because

20:24

first of all, let's go through it. I

20:27

love analysing texts like a

20:29

Shakespeare text. Only in

20:32

podcasts do you get the time to do

20:34

this. So let's begin with the

20:36

opening observation. Even though he's

20:38

leader of the Labour Party, Keir is

20:40

the least political person I know in

20:42

politics. When you think about it, that

20:44

is an astonishing observation because

20:47

every predecessor in

20:50

terms of leading the Labour Party

20:52

were deeply political, came from a

20:56

political context which was pretty

20:58

easy to read. They've been

21:00

around for so long and

21:02

been involved in so many

21:04

internal battles in the Labour

21:06

Party. Whoever you choose,

21:08

Harold Wilson say, by

21:11

the time he took his party to victory, just

21:13

in 1964, he had been in Atley's

21:17

government in the late 1940s,

21:19

president of the board of trade. He resigned

21:21

with Bevan over the introduction

21:23

of prescription charges. He had

21:26

formed allies, internal opponents, got

21:28

to know a load of

21:30

people throughout the 50s and

21:32

early 60s by the

21:34

time he was leader of the Labour Party. Moving

21:37

on to say, Neil Kinnock, who led

21:39

from nine years after 1983, clearly involved

21:41

in nightmarish

21:45

battles after he became

21:47

an MP in 1970, not

21:51

least the battle for the deputy leadership of

21:54

the Labour Party in 1981, Tony

21:57

Benn versus Dennis Healy, many a series

22:00

of Neil, who was on the left,

22:02

would back Tony Benn. He didn't. He

22:05

backed a third candidate, John Silken,

22:07

who stood. Defining

22:09

moments in a person's

22:12

rise to the top, Tony Blair,

22:14

famously with Gordon Brown, sharing an

22:17

office when they became elected in

22:19

1983. Spending obsessive amounts

22:23

of time together, working out how

22:25

to make the party electable again,

22:27

forming a well-known and familiar alliance

22:30

with Peter Mandelson. Getting to

22:32

know a range of

22:34

people within Labour, out of Labour,

22:37

and clearly positioned by

22:40

the time they became leader. And

22:43

there's Angela Rayner saying, and few would

22:45

dispute this, that Keir, let's

22:47

go back to it, is the

22:49

least political person I know in

22:51

politics, which is so

22:54

different from all Labour's predecessors.

22:58

Then she says, sometimes

23:01

you have to understand where

23:03

people are coming from to

23:05

understand their motives, implying

23:07

that he doesn't always understand where

23:10

people are coming from and understanding

23:12

their motives. And

23:16

again, this is sort

23:18

of reinforced by conversations I have with other

23:20

shadow cabinet people. One shadow cabinet

23:23

person said to me, and he

23:26

didn't know the answer to this question, but

23:29

he said, the answer, when it becomes clear,

23:31

will define the course of the government. And

23:35

the question is, are the

23:37

Blairites manipulating Keir Starmer or

23:39

is Keir Starmer manipulating the

23:41

Blairites? And it's a fascinating

23:43

question. And I suppose, as in say, the right

23:45

of the Labour Party, who tend

23:49

to worship at the altar

23:51

of Tony Blair, who

23:53

have been given prominent positions.

23:56

And whenever those of

23:58

that ilk are even prominent positions and

24:01

people write up, or this is a return

24:03

of the Blair Ice and Ed

24:27

Miliband, but before that of course with the

24:29

Blair Brown thing, which continues

24:32

to some extent and then a lot

24:35

of those around him were formed in the

24:37

sort of campaign, the hopeless

24:39

campaign, to get Liz Kendall made

24:42

Labour leader in 2015, the one

24:44

where Jeremy Corbyn won and she

24:47

came last with four percent and that

24:49

that fueled a kind of loathing of

24:51

the left and all that has

24:53

followed. Anyway, he

24:56

probably is not that versed

24:58

in it all, but then this

25:02

question Angela Rayner poses,

25:05

his natural instinct is to forget

25:07

the politics, is this right or

25:09

wrong? But

25:11

in a way, the essence of

25:14

politics is defined, defines your view

25:16

about what is right and

25:19

wrong. And

25:21

so when he gets advice to not

25:24

do the 28 billion or he

25:26

gets advice to expel left, right

25:28

and centre, it

25:31

comes with a weight of assumptions

25:34

and orthodoxies

25:37

framed by many, many years

25:39

in internal battles and

25:41

trying to win elections and losing elections

25:44

and all the rest of it. It

25:47

doesn't come from a purity of,

25:50

oh, you know, I'll give care

25:52

a call and I'll advise him this because

25:55

it's right. Of course

25:57

you believe it's right, but you believe it's right for

25:59

lots of reasons, as Angela

26:02

Rayner implies. As

26:04

she put it, there's lots of

26:06

grey in politics. It's

26:08

not necessarily as clear-cut as

26:11

that. And I think

26:13

it does tell us much about Kestama, that

26:15

his deputy reflects openly on

26:17

this. I think,

26:20

you know, she'd done a clear short, you know, being

26:22

a... he can't get rid of it, she's elected.

26:25

But anyway, that was

26:27

her being diplomatic and it is interesting. And

26:29

there are strengths in that position.

26:31

I think Keir comes

26:34

across more and more, in some respects, as,

26:37

you know, a kind of rather strict

26:40

head teacher who's been brought into

26:42

a dysfunctional school. And the Labour

26:44

Party is the most dysfunctional

26:46

of parties at the best of times. And

26:51

had not been involved in all

26:53

the internal squabbles in the school

26:55

before he arrived. And

26:58

kind of thought his job is to sort this dysfunctional

27:01

school out and

27:03

turning to people without quite

27:05

knowing their background in various

27:08

battles, their motives, and so

27:10

on. And

27:12

he has on one level, sorted

27:15

much of the boisterous

27:18

dysfunctional school out

27:21

in managerial terms. I mean, you know,

27:24

it's 20 points ahead in polls and

27:26

has just had the biggest swing in

27:28

the by-election since Dudley in December 1994.

27:30

But as Angela Rayner

27:34

implies discreetly, you

27:37

have to be aware of politics and

27:39

the development of policy in

27:42

terms of the people you choose to

27:44

listen to. And this will

27:46

become more profound, I think, in government because my

27:48

view is that in government, just

27:51

whatever people's ideological inclinations,

27:55

the sheer demands from

27:57

voters will have to leave.

28:00

need to say greater investment

28:02

in public services and quite quickly.

28:06

And tax rises. I

28:08

mean, when you want people like Paul Johnson of the

28:10

IFS, not a kind of Marxist

28:13

saying tax rises are unavoidable

28:16

and inevitable, you're

28:18

going to get them. But there will be some, Tony

28:21

Blair goes around and

28:23

says, look, tax is high, right?

28:27

It's reform you need. I mean, Tony,

28:29

there's always been like this in government. He

28:31

used to give interviews as prime minister early

28:34

on, saying taxes are going

28:36

to go down. That's the way the

28:38

world is going. He said that in

28:40

a pre-conference interview to the independent

28:42

in 1998, I think. But

28:45

then, and then at the start of the second

28:47

term, there's a very good book by Peter Hyman,

28:49

actually, who's now back in number 10, he

28:52

will be in Keir Starmer's office,

28:55

where he reports they're all going to a meeting in

28:57

checkers. And Tony

28:59

Blair is convinced that public spending levels are

29:01

high enough. That's not the issue. And

29:04

everyone else is saying that's not the case.

29:06

You know, we're still on Tory spending levels.

29:10

And then, of course, it's Tony Blair who changes his mind

29:12

when the mail and others start campaigning

29:14

about the terrible state of the NHS.

29:17

And he rightly said the

29:20

pledge is to get spending up

29:22

to EU levels. So

29:25

he doesn't always stick to this line himself.

29:29

But I think inevitably when they do these things

29:31

and go through for rough patches, I suspect

29:36

there will soon be briefings that he's

29:38

not following new labour enough and there

29:42

will be trouble ahead. But those things will

29:44

not be right or wrong. It

29:47

will be from a perfectly

29:49

legitimate political perspective. But

29:51

as Angela Rayner suggests, it is

29:53

very political. Politics

29:56

is political. And

29:59

so... Anyway, I thought

30:01

that was just an interesting observation.

30:04

The passages I've read so far are

30:07

really interesting. Say

30:09

he's not boring. And

30:11

he was an extraordinary lawyer, did a lot

30:13

of cases for nothing when he

30:16

could be earning a fortune. Now

30:18

can't show off about that or not show off, but proclaim

30:21

it because it's tricky

30:23

being a

30:25

lawyer in Tory Britain where

30:29

breaking the law has become the end thing. And

30:33

being a lawyer in Islington, and not that

30:35

he's from Islington, is part of

30:37

his problem. But

30:40

very tough. His parents were

30:42

both ill at different times, especially his mother.

30:45

Kind of lots of challenges. But anyway,

30:47

the book's not out yet. I

30:50

bumped into Tom Baldwin at Westminster the

30:53

other day. And I

30:55

said, I want to interview you. And

30:57

he agreed. But if

30:59

he's doing loads of interviews, I think we can delve

31:01

deep through other means because you don't want to hear

31:03

him being interviewed

31:05

all over the place. But anyway, let's see.

31:09

Now if it's okay with all of you, over

31:11

to your brilliant

31:14

points and questions. And

31:17

if you want to

31:19

join in, remember SteveRick13

31:22

at icloud.com. That's S-T-E-V-E-R-I-C

31:26

at icloud.com. Hi,

31:38

I'm your inner dream monologue. And

31:40

you're fast asleep, so I'll be quick.

31:43

Good job using the Colgate Optic White Overnight

31:45

Peet whitening pen before bed. When

31:48

used as directed, it gives you a visibly

31:50

whiter smile in just seven days. So

31:52

while I fly and talk to animals,

31:54

you're removing peeps stains with ease. Night

31:57

dreams. And then you wake up. loving

32:00

life to the brightest. Feel good, optical,

32:02

you're in a major lead in this. And

32:12

the first one, Anne Scarefield. I'm

32:15

happy to say my son, grandson, now all

32:18

go together to your King's Place live shows.

32:20

Oh, that's great. We'll

32:23

see you on March the 26th, Anne, hopefully.

32:28

And your whole generational family,

32:30

your family of many generations.

32:34

One question increasingly puzzles us, which

32:36

is the timidity of Tory leaders.

32:38

In the 1980s, Neil Kinnett boldly

32:41

and ruthlessly saw a militants challenge and

32:44

threat to the coherence of the Labour Party.

32:47

By contrast, Tory leaders have appeased those

32:49

on the right of their party. The

32:52

anti-EU groupings are now the

32:54

destructive chaos of the five

32:57

families have never been firmly

32:59

and ruthlessly confronted from John

33:02

Major to the present day. Why? Now

33:05

this is a really important

33:07

question, which goes to

33:09

the heart of the modern Conservative

33:11

Party. After

33:14

its slaughter in 1997, it

33:17

cried out for a Neil Kinnett

33:19

style set of reforms. To

33:26

recalibrate the party. Remember

33:28

it felt Europe was raging throughout the 1992

33:32

to 97 parliament. And

33:34

it needed someone like Michael Hessel time,

33:36

but he pulled up the 1970, thought

33:39

he wasn't well enough. He had

33:41

a heart attack during the previous parliament.

33:45

To really take that law on and

33:47

win and sort the party out as

33:50

Neil Kinnett did during

33:52

those nine years. It never

33:54

happened. David Cameron affected an

33:57

interest in modernization, but he gave the

33:59

Tory your escape. skeptics, everything they

34:01

wanted, including the referendum. And

34:04

he won the leadership contest on the

34:07

back of a ridiculous proposition for the

34:10

Tory members of the European Parliament

34:12

to pull out the centre-right grouping

34:14

of that Parliament. So

34:16

it has never happened. And

34:18

instead, like a film noir, each

34:21

Tory leader tries to appease the right

34:23

and the right come back for more

34:25

and then destroy the Tory leader. You

34:27

can see it happening with Sunak. He

34:29

doesn't think this Rwanda policy is

34:31

going to sort out the votes. When

34:34

he was Chancellor, I thought it was far too expensive

34:36

as well. But he's doing

34:38

it in an attempt to appease the right. The right

34:40

come back and say, you're hopeless. We

34:44

would like to see these people on those

34:46

planes now, even if it means breaking every

34:48

law in the land and Europe and the

34:51

international law. And yet

34:53

it goes on and on and on. And

34:55

I think in the end, what will happen is they

34:58

will pick someone from the right,

35:02

like Neil Kinnock, who was from

35:04

the left, who will in the

35:06

end realise that he or she

35:09

needs to take these people on. But

35:11

it becomes more complicated when you've got

35:14

reform breathing down your neck from the

35:16

right as well. And that, of

35:18

course, is another factor in all of

35:20

this. We've

35:22

got David, who doesn't give a

35:25

surname because he's a member

35:27

of the Labour Party, he's worried

35:29

he'd be expelled if any of

35:31

his critique ever emerges. But

35:34

he points out, there's a lot of glass

35:37

half empty analysis of

35:39

the by-elections, John Curtis-esque

35:42

analysis. He

35:44

points out that if you analyse the by-elections held

35:46

since 2019, there's been an average 28% rule

35:51

in turnout since that general

35:53

election. And that's higher

35:55

than any other post-war parliament and

35:58

shows deep disillusionment and alienation. Yeah,

36:02

I will comment in a minute, David,

36:05

because others have made the same point.

36:07

Jeff Strange says in the

36:09

Wellingborough by-election, essentially the Conservative vote has

36:11

lost around 25,000 votes. That's

36:15

huge, but Labour need to

36:17

be wary of directly translating this result towards

36:20

the general election as their vote has only

36:22

increased by 107. Yes,

36:27

but in

36:30

a lower turnout, a colossal

36:32

drop in the Tory vote, I

36:35

suppose it just depends on whether you think that drop

36:37

in the Tory vote is as

36:39

significant as it seems. We

36:41

won't know until the election, but

36:44

all we can say is that

36:46

by-elections are not

36:48

a wholly reliable guide to

36:50

general election outcomes, but

36:53

this near to an election and so

36:55

much part of a pattern over

36:58

the last year, I think

37:00

those who see a glass

37:02

more half full from the

37:04

Labour perspective are probably closer

37:06

to it. And

37:08

Jeff said, oh, Jeff's coming to the live choking space.

37:11

That is great. I'm going to delve so

37:13

deep and make sense of so much

37:15

and have a laugh. It's compulsory. Thank

37:20

you very much. Blake Ford, I've

37:23

been interested hearing all the suggestions for

37:25

Labour slogans. This was started by Christian

37:27

Walmore at the last live show at

37:29

King's Place. And

37:32

the similar tone they take of

37:34

some optimism, togetherness. I like this

37:36

together thing. I wanted to

37:38

ask you, though, whether if like me, you think

37:40

a slogan is far less important than the overall

37:43

framing and language of

37:45

Labour's pitch. I found

37:47

Drew Weston's book on emotions

37:49

and politics really engaging. Well,

37:51

that's interesting because thank

37:53

you for that, Blake. I don't know about this book, but

37:55

I'm going to get hold of it. Emotion

37:58

and politics is a really good thing. rich, rich

38:00

theme. And I agree with

38:03

you, I can't remember the slogans from most

38:05

elections. Of course, there

38:07

was the famous 1979 Sachee

38:10

slogan for the Conservatives, Labour

38:12

isn't working, which was, which

38:15

was a stroke of genius,

38:18

with cues of people at all, you

38:20

know, it was clever as well, because

38:24

Margaret Thatcher and Geoffrey Howe knew that

38:26

in the short term, at least their

38:28

monetary policies were going to massively increase

38:30

unemployment. In fact, that was

38:32

their method of getting inflation down in the

38:34

end. But mostly you can't remember

38:37

slogans, but you are right. The

38:39

framing of arguments are

38:41

the essence of the

38:44

art of persuasion in politics. And

38:47

they matter in the build up to an election

38:50

and beyond. And as

38:52

we've discussed here, and in

38:54

my books on Prime Ministers and Prime

38:56

Ministers we never had, you

38:59

have to be a political

39:01

teacher to be a

39:03

commanding leader. Without

39:05

that skill, it's not a bonus. It's

39:09

part of leadership.

39:11

And that applies

39:13

in government and outside. Lewis

39:17

as a student, I've often felt

39:19

wondering why a lot of my

39:21

friends feel so disengaged from the

39:23

formal political system. Many tell

39:25

me they have no interest in voting this

39:28

year. This is reinforcing the point made

39:30

by David and Jeff. What

39:32

can political leaders on both the

39:34

left and the right do to

39:37

actively engage young voters in politics

39:39

when the turnout looks like being

39:41

so low, based on conversation

39:43

Stuart has had as a student?

39:48

Yeah, well, it's the answer.

39:50

We need a whole podcast on

39:53

how you engage young

39:56

voters, because it's

39:58

partly through the policy propositions. You

40:01

see, one of the elections that's been airbrushed out of

40:03

history is the 2017 election. But

40:08

both the main parties were

40:10

putting forward proposals that

40:13

made a kind of direct connection with

40:15

voters' lives, whether it was

40:18

Labour, say, on housing, who knows

40:20

whether it would have happened, or their kind of

40:22

plans for education, or the

40:24

Tories actually in some of

40:27

the things they were proposing about a more

40:29

active state and social care being

40:31

sorted. That was obviously not aimed at

40:33

young people directly, because that's probably the

40:36

last thing on their minds. But

40:40

the sense of using

40:43

the state as an agent to bind people

40:45

together, rather than leaving it to everyone to

40:47

fight amongst themselves. And if you're young, you

40:49

can't afford housing, you can't afford to get

40:52

on a bus or a train and all

40:54

the other stuff. And

40:56

you feel left behind to

40:58

revive a powerful slogan

41:01

misused in the Brexit referendum.

41:04

So that's part of it. I think there are

41:06

other ways in which you can engage.

41:09

And it's also, to be honest, not

41:11

just down to the politicians. It really

41:13

is down to young people. There was

41:15

a lot of talk, do you remember,

41:17

during the Brexit referendum in 2016, they

41:20

could be asked to go out and vote,

41:22

and Glastonbury was on. So that was, you

41:24

know, got to get out there.

41:27

The reason why older people

41:29

are treated with

41:31

greater generosity is because they vote.

41:35

So anyway, let's have a longer chat

41:37

about that and keep

41:39

me informed of what your fellow students

41:41

are thinking, Lewis, in the build up

41:43

to the election. Over

41:57

now to our Brussels correspondent, Caroline.

42:00

Morgan. Now

42:02

I'm going to call her our Brussels

42:04

correspondent forever, even though

42:06

Caroline is leaving Brussels.

42:09

Anyway, she is

42:12

a big Kistama supporter.

42:15

And she says that we

42:17

were so I was proposing in

42:19

the light of the 28 billion retreat.

42:22

In last week's podcast, I was

42:24

comparing the boldness of the Tories

42:27

in opposition on the verge of

42:29

power 79 2010. Policies

42:34

of the radical right, confidently

42:36

asserted and framed to

42:38

go back to that earlier point. Compared

42:41

with ladies, oh, no, no, we can't do that. Can't do that.

42:44

Oh, no, my God, help.

42:46

Anyway, Caroline, amongst many other points,

42:48

makes the point. Is

42:51

it the reason why Starmer can't be

42:53

bolder is that he faces

42:55

a biased media out to get him,

42:57

which Thatcher didn't face in 1979. Yeah,

43:02

you are right. I think I put that

43:04

in my reflection. Last week, I

43:06

hope I did. I mean, it's one of the

43:09

factors, though not the only one. But

43:11

one of the factors is

43:13

that when you are dependent

43:15

on a media, media

43:17

to mediate, it

43:20

has a huge influence on you. And

43:22

Margaret Thatcher had doting newspapers, putting

43:25

her case and making it popular.

43:28

And the trouble is Kia Starmer and

43:30

his team hang out Westminster where the

43:32

political correspondents, political editors, as far as

43:34

any of them are not kind

43:36

of feeding the Tory machine

43:39

and quite a lot aren't at the

43:41

moment, I can tell you. But

43:43

they they are conditioned by

43:45

certain assumptions. Public spending is

43:47

a sign of labor being

43:49

irresponsible and immature and proplicate,

43:52

etc. And it is

43:54

much harder to put a case with

43:57

those kind of mediators. And that is a

43:59

factor. Though as we explored

44:01

last week and get that podcast. I

44:03

think there are other factors about the

44:06

lack of its

44:09

ideological self-confidence actually

44:12

Compared to the Tories when they

44:15

are in opposition, but look like

44:17

winning Thatcher

44:19

being the supreme example, but

44:21

but Cameron to and George Osborne

44:24

remember they went into that election

44:26

proposing real-term spending cuts and

44:31

Didn't run a mile when they were

44:33

challenged albeit with a more sympathetic media

44:37

Helen Gordon Helen the baker Has

44:40

been in touch. She writes about

44:42

a whole range of things of

44:45

course, including the ongoing

44:47

Israel Gaza situation which

44:51

Yeah, she analyzes the media coverage of

44:53

that But she is

44:55

with Caroline on this theme. We're exploring

44:58

at the moment So

45:00

Helen I'll just focus on that if that's okay with

45:02

you the difference between Cameron

45:04

Osborne's antics prior to the 2010 election is

45:08

Unfortunately, there's a couple of

45:10

posh boys talking rubbish were

45:13

greeted with unquestioning support from

45:15

the media so

45:17

the framing of the 2010 election is

45:19

really interesting and then

45:21

of course 2015

45:23

where it was the same theme of Wiping

45:27

out the the deficit

45:29

the deficit the deficit and It

45:33

was almost taken as read

45:36

by newspapers and indeed the BBC that

45:38

this was the goal And

45:40

whoever was in charge Brown in 2010 Miller

45:44

band and balls in 2015.

45:46

So how are you going to address the deficit

45:48

the deficit the deficit? And

45:51

you're right. The framing made it a lot easier

45:53

for David Cameron George

45:55

Osborne, but again, I don't think

45:57

it is just the

46:00

media but great to hear

46:02

from you Helen. Alison

46:05

Keys who

46:07

signs herself off a despondent of

46:09

Lincolnshire. Anyway I

46:13

hope you're enjoying yourself whilst listening

46:15

to the podcast and doing other

46:17

things. I'm

46:20

still hoping there'll be a Labour victory at the next

46:22

general election or rather I'm hoping

46:24

the Tories will lose. But

46:26

honestly I can't say I look forward to a

46:29

Labour government. I just want

46:31

the Tories out. This is not a great advert for

46:33

Labour, is it? No it's not

46:38

and I think in the few

46:40

months going after this whole

46:42

focus at the top of

46:44

the Labour Party on retreat and briefing on

46:47

what they're not going to do, which as

46:49

Angela Rayner hinted is not a

46:52

right or wrong judgment. It's deeply

46:54

political. What you decide you can

46:56

say and can't say is partly

46:58

strategic, navigating your way around the

47:01

media and your readings of these

47:03

tyrannical focus groups. By the way

47:05

Claire Short in her 96 interview

47:08

is really smart on

47:10

focus groups. They were in fashion

47:12

then and she

47:14

highlights rather vividly their limitations

47:19

as well as their strengths.

47:22

So anyway with all that done and

47:24

out of the way there are a lot of

47:27

policies in the repertoire

47:30

of the Labour Party that could be

47:32

framed in quite an exciting way

47:36

but they have to have faith in them and not

47:38

be worried and anxious and

47:40

defensive at all times because

47:42

defensiveness speeds on itself. It's very interesting

47:44

now you can see people are moving

47:46

in. There was a front page story

47:48

in the Times on Friday about

47:51

businesses asking for the

47:54

package on employment rights to be

47:56

watered down. I can see that

47:58

being the next target. that

48:00

is one of the things that Kissamara

48:02

is pretty unyielding about. But

48:05

yeah, it's the

48:08

old cliche, reassurance and

48:10

excitement. Both are

48:12

required. So

48:15

yeah, Paul Cooper of the same kind

48:17

of ilk, the

48:19

most frequent below the line comments from the

48:21

Guardian is just vote to get

48:23

the Tories out. But

48:25

then what happens with the change of

48:28

government? Paul wonders whether the

48:30

solution to all of this and sense

48:32

of betrayal of trust and so on is

48:35

to scrap the manifesto, the pre-election

48:37

manifesto. The trouble is Paul, you've got to hold

48:39

a party to account. And that's

48:41

the only mechanism available, I think. Okay,

48:45

we're going on for ages and

48:47

ages. But

48:49

I will read because he's

48:51

always 75 for one of

48:54

our guides over climate

48:56

change is of course, Nick

48:58

from Edinburgh. So let

49:02

me just oh yeah, he describes the extreme

49:04

caution. I knew Nick would be worried by

49:06

the retreat on the 28 billion. I met

49:08

Nick at the Edinburgh festival

49:11

and he has been

49:14

my guide on climate change.

49:16

He thinks the retreat threatens

49:19

a labour company to be

49:21

directionless and lacking permission for

49:23

radical action, even if elected.

49:27

Do I agree? Not wholly, actually,

49:29

I think it reflects a fearful

49:32

timidity in

49:34

the build up to this election, which we've

49:37

explored, some said last

49:39

week, born on the

49:41

back of endless defeat, that media

49:43

we've been talking about the

49:47

perspective of some Blairites, the back

49:49

to the Rayner point, they come

49:51

with a political perspective to all

49:54

of this. It's not and an

49:56

ideological one. It's not just right

49:58

or wrong. They're politics

50:00

involved. But I

50:03

think this is for another

50:05

podcast. Lots. We're in the

50:08

election year everybody. I

50:12

think this is one of the hardest governments or

50:16

potential governments to work

50:18

out what it will be like when

50:20

they get in. On the

50:22

whole, I follow a strict rule that

50:24

what you see is what you get.

50:26

You can analyze forever, but look in

50:28

front of you. If you read the

50:31

97 Labour Manifesto, and look what

50:33

happened with some big exceptions

50:35

like Northern Ireland and Bank of

50:37

England independence, it was laid out

50:40

in the manifesto. Similarly,

50:42

with Cameron for all the big society and

50:44

all the rest of the sort of waffle.

50:47

Well, it was not waffle actually. It was a very

50:50

clever framing of an argument about a

50:52

much smaller state. And

50:56

so it transpired, first

50:58

budget, real term spending cuts in

51:01

July of 2010. But this

51:04

one is harder to read because say

51:07

the focus has been what we're not going to do, what we're

51:09

not going to do, what we're not going to do. But there's

51:12

still quite a lot that they are

51:14

planning to do. But

51:16

the precise mechanisms and details

51:19

are still vague, setting up

51:21

a publicly owned energy company

51:24

based in Scotland, that

51:26

will shake up the energy market in some

51:28

shape or form. We have yet to hear

51:31

the precise details of the remit. This

51:33

package of employment rights are quite

51:36

bold and ambitious. The

51:38

green plan though, swiped

51:42

or its means have been

51:45

ripped out the 28 billion. But

51:48

the aim remains in place. Now

51:51

there's a question about how, but these are

51:53

all quite ambitious things. I think they will

51:55

do stuff on Lord Frosty

51:58

Frost, disastrous Brexit. So

52:01

there are quite a lot

52:03

of things around which could be, could

52:07

represent significant change. But

52:10

then there are the mountainous challenges

52:12

of Britain's stagnating economy, the

52:15

dire state of public services

52:17

needing urgent attention and

52:20

much else. So I find it quite hard

52:23

to predict what this government will be like.

52:25

But anyway, look, we better stop now because

52:27

you've got cakes to bake and runs to

52:29

run if you haven't finished running whilst listening

52:32

to the podcast. If you were running whilst

52:34

listening, just a reminder, live

52:36

at the rope tackle in

52:38

Shoreham and King's Place both

52:40

next month in March, the

52:42

links to get tickets will

52:44

be on the blurb

52:46

for the podcast or at the specific

52:49

venues. And we will

52:51

have so much to discuss those live

52:53

events. So, yeah, thanks

52:55

very much for listening. If you could leave

52:58

a review, but only if you love it,

53:00

five stars, that kind of thing, because

53:03

some reason it drives what

53:05

we call traffic. More

53:07

people subscribe, more joining in the

53:11

fun of our rock and roll politics

53:13

cooperative. So that would

53:15

be great, too. And thanks so

53:17

much. A lot going on. And

53:20

we will get together very soon

53:23

to make sense of it all. Thanks very

53:25

much. Bye. Hello

53:41

host of Dan Snow's History at Podcast here. History

53:43

isn't just dates and facts. It's about

53:46

the incredible stories that shape our world.

53:48

Three times a week on my podcast,

53:50

my expert guests and I bring you

53:52

extraordinary stories of heroism, discovery, mystery

53:56

and power. Expect tales of

53:58

lost tombs, daring escapes. power-hungry

54:00

rulers and those determined to bring

54:02

them all down. If you're

54:04

a history lover or just looking for a

54:06

good tale you want to check out Dan

54:08

Snow's History Hit wherever you get your podcasts.