0:00

Ron An Aian.

0:01

Part of the problem in diagnosing a vehicle.

0:03

For me, it gets to be emotional.

0:05

If we are to truly discover the meaning of these

0:07

events.

0:08

Absolution for

0:10

the turn being.

0:13

Lent them on the.

0:14

Phone the car Doctor.

0:15

If you let your emotions get involved, this

0:18

car's a piece of junk. This car's a piece of junk.

0:20

This car's a piece of junk. And it's not like that

0:23

that has to go to the back of your mind. It has

0:25

to be what's the source of the problem. What

0:27

steps am I going to take to resolve?

0:29

Are you incapable of restraining ourselves? Would

0:31

you take pride in being an insufferable.

0:33

Knowitable Welcome to the radio

0:35

home of ron Anian the Car Doctor.

0:38

Since nineteen ninety one, this is where

0:40

car owners the world overturned to for

0:43

their definitive opinion on automotive

0:45

repair. If your mechanics giving

0:47

you a busy signal, pick up the phone

0:49

and call in. The garage doors.

0:52

Are open, but I am here to take your call at

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eight five five five six ninety.

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Nine hundred and now he is

1:00

running.

1:02

Welcome listeners, good to be here with you today. We're

1:04

going to dive right into it once again. We welcome

1:06

back Mark Mills, and we're gonna be talking electric

1:09

vehicles. So sit down, stay tuned,

1:11

and get ready for a shock, no pun intended.

1:13

Mark, welcome back, sir, Hope all

1:15

as well, Yes, sir, thank you very much. It's good

1:17

to have you. Yep, let's dive

1:19

right into it. You know, in the news recently,

1:22

well, two things I want to talk about in the news. Keep

1:25

in mind, I want to talk a little bit before the end of this hour

1:27

with you. Germany just did something

1:30

very interesting with EV's right, they dropped

1:32

the subsidies

1:35

I think it was, But I also want to I also want to talk a little

1:37

bit about you know, I keep reading

1:39

how coming out of Washington, the government

1:41

is trying these mandates on appliances. And I know that's

1:44

not necessarily a car show story

1:46

or an EV story, but that

1:48

appliance mentality about trying to make

1:51

all the appliances green. There's

1:54

an EV guideline to that

1:57

also, is there not? I mean, don't they tie them together?

2:00

Well, they're tied together first philosophically

2:03

in this sense that we have Washington

2:06

bureaucrats mandating

2:10

what kind of products you can use or have, not

2:13

not regulating if you like

2:15

their physical safety, you know, like

2:17

underwriter's lapse, but mandating what

2:19

you're allowed to buy, banning your ability to purchase

2:22

certain kinds of products, So it's exactly

2:24

the same the idea. Many states have tried this,

2:26

a number half certain California that Big

2:28

Main is going to do it next is make

2:30

it illegal for you to purchase a gas water

2:33

heater or a gas furnace or

2:35

gas appliance or stole for your home.

2:38

So a product that is in widespread

2:40

use for well we'll

2:43

call it centuries certainly and

2:47

globally in widespread use, it will

2:49

now be banned. And it's like banning

2:51

cigarettes, I mean the people, and we didn't.

2:53

By the way, not to use

2:56

a HAMDHND analogy, cigarettes

2:59

are not banned, even though

3:02

there probably isn't a single listener listening who doesn't

3:04

think, even if they're smokers, the cigarettes don't hurt

3:06

you. I mean, come on, you

3:09

could do lots of things that hurt you that you enjoy. I

3:11

get that for human But

3:13

the government is long held that cigarettes

3:16

are dangerous, and we didn't ban cigarettes,

3:19

which affirmatively hurt people and

3:21

cause insurance costs go up in the health industry,

3:24

healthcare industry. So here

3:26

we come along, and for the putative

3:30

assumption that some

3:32

small incremental benefit to the far

3:34

future from not burning natural

3:36

gas in your home in emitting carbon dioxide,

3:39

we should ban a product.

3:42

I mean, I never

3:44

mind the motivation, the idea

3:46

behind it is really offensive.

3:49

So I save for cars. I'm going to ban the sale of internal

3:52

combustion engines. So far in twelve

3:54

states, d C is just getting ready

3:56

to do it next in at least a dozen countries

3:58

have stood up to do that, and the

4:00

EPA's new rule would

4:03

expectively ban internal combustion sales

4:05

for sort of seventy eighty percent of all vehicles

4:08

by twenty thirty two. I think it is so, this

4:11

is this is a phenomenal overreach.

4:14

The only time we've had bands

4:16

of the scale it was one time in

4:18

American history, which is, of course, the ban on

4:21

alcohol consumption.

4:22

You know, I think I think about that.

4:25

Not then I'm a I'm not a huge drinker, but

4:27

I remember that. You know, you

4:29

start making the comparison that, yeah,

4:31

we had prohibition, and yeah that

4:34

that didn't that didn't end too well, Because

4:36

here we are it's available again.

4:38

Right, not available again?

4:40

What it did the law, the law on intended

4:42

consequences about laws, well,

4:44

you try to ban something it's widely consumed and

4:46

used, you create all sorts

4:49

of unintended consequences, not least the

4:51

criminality that surrounded everybody's

4:54

still consuming alcohol and traded underground

4:56

industry. The other band,

4:58

by the way, which is relevant to the domain

5:01

or cars in general, was the

5:04

banner driving quickly in nineteen

5:06

seventy three, when we ban

5:09

banned ability to drive at normal speeds i

5:11

e. Over fifty five miles an hour. And

5:13

what that did is that it

5:15

was the It was even more even a more

5:17

widely flouted law than

5:20

the ban and consuming alcohol because

5:23

people simply ignored it, and you

5:25

know, a lot more speeding tickets. A lot of cops

5:27

just ignored it. Some didn't. But

5:30

it really is a

5:32

very dangerous thing to ban things that

5:34

are silly, to ban that people

5:36

will ignore and create under you know, all

5:38

kinds of unintended consequences. But anyway,

5:41

the ban on appliances is no different

5:43

than the ban on cars. It's motivated by the same

5:45

thing, the same bad instincts to

5:48

have status control over consumer

5:50

choices that are you know, convenient

5:53

and sensible.

5:54

I think. I think the sad thing about the appliance

5:56

ban and what they're trying to take away

5:58

from is that they might be able to achieve

6:01

it, because yeah,

6:04

I can get this, but I can't get that. The problem

6:06

is going to be, you know, if you

6:08

don't have you know, the

6:11

electric cost. Right, we're back there because they want to convert

6:13

every appliance to electric something or electric

6:16

water heater, or minimize the amount

6:18

of natural gas flowing through the natural

6:20

gas device. And it's

6:22

like the ev situation. And this is where I think

6:24

the analogy in my mind where I was trying to put

6:26

the two together, is we

6:29

don't have the resources. It's not you

6:31

know, it's like we keep saying we want to go back in time. I

6:33

want to be eighteen again. It just it just can't happen.

6:35

It's not it's not physically possible.

6:38

Well, if you shift, if you shift that much energy

6:40

demand from gas to electric,

6:43

which is what the goal is, then

6:45

you're right. You have to build electric infrastructure to

6:47

handle it, and we're not just

6:51

flat and to do it takes time and

6:53

also cost money. And of course

6:55

you've now you've increased

6:57

risks to society. One of the benefits of having

7:00

two fuels to your house when does power

7:02

out, is that you still have hot wire,

7:04

you still have sos it works fireplace

7:07

they could use that doesn't

7:09

happen in the electric world, which

7:11

is which is high risk by definition.

7:14

You know, when are they gonna when are they going to prevent us from lighting

7:16

fires in the fireplace?

7:18

Well that you know, well, Colorado

7:20

long time ago banned new

7:22

house construction with with with with fireplaces.

7:25

Yeah really I didn't know that ready,

7:28

Yeah, I didn't know that

7:30

that. Just bring a board. Another thing to mind,

7:32

I was watching this show on Netflix the

7:34

other day. They were talking about

7:36

food and beef and cows

7:38

and how cows emit. I don't know if this

7:41

is true or not. I get it must be true. I

7:43

saw it on TV. You

7:45

know, cows emit. The

7:47

current population of cows in the United

7:49

States emit more greenhouse

7:52

gases than the entire transportation

7:55

industry. It was some astounding claim

7:57

that cows are more deadly to the environment

8:00

than the automobile, and.

8:02

They want to ban milk

8:04

and beef. So what they're referring to

8:06

is the fact that the ruminant bacteria

8:08

in the cow's gut, the

8:12

digestion of grasses by cows

8:14

and all all that class of creatures

8:17

emits methane. Methane is a more

8:21

powerful in the greenhouse lexicon, more powerful

8:23

greenhouse casts and co two by

8:26

it depending how you measure by a fact for twenty, so

8:28

you know a pound of methane amid it is like twenty pounds of carbon

8:30

dioxide. It's shorter

8:32

lived in the atmosphere, but it's that's what it

8:34

does. So that's some of

8:36

the rules that

8:38

are being promulgated are directed not just the carbon

8:41

dioxide emissions from combustion, and

8:43

it's not from cow farts. It is commonly

8:46

that smell of sulfur dioxide

8:48

for the college kids that remember what the misbehaviors

8:51

and enjoyment they had at the

8:54

flatulence, But it's methane burps.

8:56

It's the burping cows, the

8:58

biodigestion by bacteria of

9:01

grasses, and of course termites forget

9:05

meat and beef, the termite termites

9:07

emit methane as well, and the

9:09

one of the largest sources of methane emissions globally

9:12

are from termites. We don't count them

9:14

because we don't eat termites, we don't grow termites,

9:17

so they're irrelevant. But yet we want to regulate

9:19

cows because you know, we grow cows.

9:22

I mean, it's the path

9:24

is uh. You know,

9:26

I would use the word in saying because it's

9:28

probably the right word to use, this

9:31

path towards trying to find every possible source

9:33

of human emissions of greenhouse

9:36

gases and regulator to pan. It's really

9:38

it's not going to end well because you

9:40

can't do it. I mean, it's just no matter

9:43

what people are saying, it just can't be done.

9:45

So does you know, going back to where we

9:47

started our conversation, does the appliance

9:49

controls we see currently being applied

9:52

by Washington is that a reflection

9:54

of the mentality of what they expect from

9:56

the electric vehicle? And that's why they're dragging us.

9:58

I mean you in that direction. I mean you

10:01

just said another You know, Washington d C is going to

10:03

add the band or Washington is going to add the ban. I

10:05

don't know if you meant DC or the state. But you

10:08

know we're we're again, and

10:11

yet some states are saying, hey, we can't do this, it's

10:13

not going to work right.

10:15

Well, if you number of states are, they're not all on

10:17

board, but Washington d C Is

10:19

de facto banning internal

10:22

combustion engines through the EPA's proposed

10:25

rule, and that's

10:27

being challenged, but that'll, you know, we'll see how it goes.

10:30

I never no governments can do a lot. The

10:32

District of Columbia, it South has

10:35

joined California, New York, Maine, and other

10:37

states in banning the ability

10:40

as a resident of that state to

10:42

purchase an internal combustion engine by the year twenty

10:44

thirty two. I think it is so,

10:47

you know, long before we get

10:49

to that point in time. If those laws

10:51

and those bands stay on the books long

10:54

before we get to that period, this is only only

10:56

eight years out. Long before

10:58

then, automakers, if those fan stay in

11:00

place, we'll have to think about

11:03

whether they shut down a lot of factories because they'll

11:05

be overproducing internal combustion engines,

11:07

and those decisions will have to be made a few years from

11:10

now, not seven eight years from now,

11:12

but a few years from now. You have to get ahead of that

11:14

curve. So they really think those bands will stay

11:16

in place, Then you'll

11:18

begin to see auto industry production ramping

11:20

down because you won't be able to sell the products

11:22

and you've got to start thinking strategically about

11:25

what you can close and quickly you can close

11:27

it. And of course the effect of that will be to

11:29

raise the costs of vehicles,

11:31

will be fewer vehicles available preemptively,

11:34

and will raise the cost of used cars as we've talked

11:36

about before, and raise the

11:38

cost of repairing use cars because people are going

11:40

to keep the cars longer, and it's

11:43

going to be a

11:45

very vicious downward spiral

11:48

of high costs and inconveniences

11:50

that will begin again, not in

11:53

twenty thirty two when the bands are proposed,

11:55

but before it by.

11:56

Years sonless unless we

11:58

come back to the same side of the coin.

12:00

So makes this election. You're very

12:02

very interesting. You're listening to Ronnani and the Card

12:04

Doctor. I'm talking to Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute,

12:07

and we're chatting away about EV's and

12:09

a bunch of other topics this hour. So stay

12:11

put Mark's stay on the side there. I'm running any of

12:13

the Card Doctor. We'll both be back right after this.

12:15

Don't go away.

12:22

You need

12:30

advice on how to maintain that classic gt

12:33

O. Ron is the guy eight five five

12:35

five six zero nine nine zero zero.

12:37

Here's Ron.

12:39

Welcome back.

12:39

Listeners, Ronnie and the card Doctor are here with

12:41

the often imitated,

12:43

never duplicated, underappreciated

12:46

Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. Or

12:49

you're hanging in there, Mark, I had to give you that one, right,

12:52

good.

12:53

You know it's good. I'll

12:55

take I'll take it all. I do.

12:57

Have to go ahead.

12:59

I'm sorry.

13:00

I want to correct one thing I should have told you at the outset.

13:03

Uh first of the year, I left the Manhattan

13:06

Institute, my beloved Manhattan suit where I'm supposed

13:08

contributing editor to its

13:10

great city journal. But now I am a distinguished

13:13

and you'll have to treat me with more respect. Now we're on.

13:16

I am a dis distinguished senior

13:18

fellow with the Texas Public

13:20

Policy Foundation. I've changed

13:24

courses because they

13:26

made me an offer to come

13:28

and play with them, but especially to

13:31

help build out a new national energy initiative

13:34

think tank of some kind based in Washington.

13:36

It's not a Texas based activity,

13:38

but a Texas sponsored activity,

13:41

because well, Texas is

13:43

the energy giant of America and in

13:45

fact of.

13:46

The world, and they and they realize what's

13:48

at stake.

13:49

They do right.

13:51

One last thing from our last conversation, and

13:53

by the way, congratulations for that. I don't want to just ignore

13:55

that. That's kind of neat.

13:58

You know, about two

14:00

weeks ago in the news, Germany decided

14:03

to do away with the incentive for purchasing

14:06

or supporting evs.

14:08

What was that all about?

14:10

Money? Inherently what

14:13

a shock. Yeah, I mean, you can't subsidize

14:15

everything forever. And what it

14:17

was all about is the it

14:19

made a lie of the trope that

14:23

if you subsidize EV's, the volumes

14:25

will go up and they'll get cheaper. And

14:27

evs are inherently more expensive

14:30

than conventional cars, except

14:33

for in the luxury market, which is functionally

14:36

irrelevant to most of the world.

14:38

So for the everyday car, evs

14:40

are inherently more expensive, and they are now being

14:43

produced at scale. We're no

14:45

longer talking about a nascent industry. There

14:47

are millions of them being manufactured. Tessel

14:50

did you know, over a million a year themselves

14:53

last year. It's a mature,

14:55

a large industry, and it still requires

14:59

massive subsidies to get people

15:01

to buy them, which means governments

15:03

are facing the prospect if they

15:05

push evs, is the only vehicle

15:07

you're allowed to buy? Is subsidizing

15:10

every car everybody buys. So it's

15:13

it's unsustainable. You can't you can't do

15:15

these kinds of things, and the

15:17

lie that they get cheap is not true.

15:19

So wait, you're telling me that Germany woke up and

15:21

said, wait, we can't afford to continue in this path,

15:23

let's just let's eliminate it and stop it here.

15:26

Yeah, they they did other things. Remember, they are

15:28

pursuing this aggressive wind and solar

15:30

path on their grids, and there

15:33

there's a sense, you know, I believe last year there was

15:36

no net new orders in Europe for turbans

15:38

wind turbans, and they are reactivating

15:41

coal plants in Germany, digging up more coal,

15:44

and the costs of the natural gas is soaring

15:46

because of their because of the

15:49

understandable policy to de link from Russian

15:51

gas. But that means instead

15:53

of the geopolitical discounts

15:56

that Putin was giving Germany,

15:58

they're gone. So energy

16:01

got more expensive and their economy

16:03

is shrinking and they're de industrializing

16:06

and so on. The at all of this on the

16:08

backs of bad energy policy. That's

16:10

where all came from, and all it all comes

16:13

back to bad energy

16:15

policy being mandated by the government. Unaffordable.

16:18

So the next Domino is

16:21

the one that just fail, which is knocking out

16:23

EV subsidies.

16:24

So when does that fall here now?

16:27

And that's a good question. I mean,

16:29

I well, you know, if

16:32

it takes as long to happen here as it did

16:34

there, we're in for a few more

16:36

years. I think a

16:38

fiscal sanity will rather

16:41

than somebody deciding that

16:43

boops, we were wrong. We don't like evs. That's

16:45

not going to happen. I like evs, as you know, we've

16:47

talked about the performance

16:50

opportunities and different kind of flexibility

16:52

were nice. They're great fun.

16:55

But that's not the same thing as mandating

16:57

everybody have one and subsidizing it.

16:59

So I think fiscal reality will

17:01

will come back into play here faster

17:05

than it did in Germany for a whole

17:07

lot of reasons. And so if I were picking it,

17:09

if we wanted to take it over under Bet,

17:13

I'd take two years. I'd say,

17:15

I'd say two years the subsidies go away,

17:19

even if there's a even if even if Democrats

17:22

have a white House, I think it's going to

17:24

be financially unsustainable. That's

17:26

what I think will happen.

17:27

All right, Well, I'll take that prediction.

17:29

We'll we'll we'll talk again in two years.

17:31

Personally, I think it's going to be a person I think it's going to be

17:33

eleven months. But we'll

17:36

kind of take that, will kind of take it

17:39

comes.

17:40

You're setting aside who wins

17:42

the election eleven months, even if

17:44

the red team instead of the Blue team wins. Uh,

17:47

there's a lag because

17:49

the you know, we've got then not till

17:52

a year from this January before the

17:54

next inauguration, and then you have

17:57

school off time which takes six months.

18:00

But you know, President, it could could end

18:02

by secutive order up the dyes for sure.

18:04

Yeah, I get it.

18:05

They could try it.

18:06

I could try it.

18:07

I don't know if they could get could get away with it because it's

18:09

you know, there's legislation because who has a House

18:11

and Senate. It's messy. I guess

18:13

my point is.

18:14

It becomes political. Mark, let's pull over, take a

18:16

pause. I'm Ronnini and the guard doctor here with Mark Mills.

18:18

We'll both be back right after this. Don't go up.

18:41

She's real, find my phone.

18:43

Nice, she's real, find my

18:46

phone, my phone, look

18:52

back, Dane, I card doctor here. We're talking

18:54

Mark with Mark Mills, we're talking e VS

18:56

and all the peripheral conversations

18:58

that go along with that statement. And

19:02

as we roll along, Mark, we you know,

19:04

I knew, and I could probably talk a lot longer than the time

19:06

we always have. I want to get into insurance

19:09

costs. We've never really done

19:11

a deep dive, but you know there's

19:13

a lot of things that go along with that term insurance

19:15

costs and evs. Electric vehicles

19:18

enlighten us.

19:20

Yeah, Well, the big wildcard here,

19:24

as you know, is ensuring the most expensive

19:26

part of that vehicle, which is the battery. And

19:28

unlike an internal combustion engine car,

19:31

there's no single component that has

19:34

such a high proportion of the cost of the vehicle. So

19:37

roughly speaking, the batteries fifteen thousand dollars

19:39

could be a smaller car ten thousand.

19:42

That's a manufacturer's cost, so

19:44

fifteen thousand. Then the big ones could be

19:46

twenty thousand. There's a lot of money.

19:49

And the battery structure

19:52

is extremely important for safety reasons.

19:54

So if there's any mechanical damage to the

19:56

battery pack, it's a huge thing in the

19:58

floor, you know, the pan

20:00

of the car. Since it's a write off,

20:03

the batteries can't be repaired the way an internal combustion

20:05

engine. Can you know it's a very complex

20:08

machine. People think it's simple. It's not a box

20:10

of goos, it's not an empty tank. There's

20:12

thousands of components, thousands of wells, power

20:14

electronics, cooling systems, structural systems,

20:17

safety systems. It's more complex

20:19

than an internal combustion engine and made from lots

20:22

of exotic stuff, unlike an engine which

20:24

is cast iron steel. Very

20:26

easy to fix them, frankly comparatively,

20:29

and you can fix them so that

20:32

cost is not really showing

20:34

up yet in the data. Except

20:37

this is my theory. Generally

20:39

speaking, overall car insurance costs have been rising

20:42

across the country. It's not just that it's

20:44

getting more expensive to repair cars. I

20:46

think what's going on is the percentage

20:48

of cars that are being totaled for minor

20:51

accidents. It's far

20:53

higher with EBS. We know this for a fact,

20:56

and that cost is being passed on to all

20:58

other insurance payers

21:00

because insurance gime's going to put the money

21:02

somewhere, so they haven't yet made

21:05

ev makers. I don't think pay

21:08

the actual underwritten

21:10

cost of ensuring a vehicle

21:12

that gets into an accident that can be written

21:15

off much more quickly. And there's

21:17

another feature, by the way, for Tesla's particularly

21:19

and if other automakers follow this, is that Elon

21:22

Musk is nothing brilliant made that cheaper to

21:24

make his car because his frame is

21:27

a single aluminum casting. No

21:29

one else has been to achieve that. It's a really

21:32

incredible engineering achievement, and good on him

21:34

and his team. I mean, it really is. It's amazing.

21:37

But the problem with that is that the aluminum

21:39

is, you know, it's fragile relatively speaking.

21:41

I mean, if you get into an accident

21:44

and do damage to the frame of a steel

21:46

car, you can bend it back, you

21:48

can replace a part. We can't

21:50

do that to a Tesla. You're right off the frame,

21:53

right And that's that's so you got two

21:55

things you're facing that are changed. The insurance

21:58

underwriting, and they'll you know,

22:00

that will show up. It has to rope eventually as

22:03

you get more and more evs on the road, and I think what

22:05

solution is uncomplicated. The

22:07

electric car owner will pay for the insurance

22:09

higher insurance costs. Ultimately, that's what will happen,

22:12

and then insurance companies will be blamed for

22:16

impeding the eed revolution, for.

22:18

Gouging and gouging,

22:20

gouging, and all of a sudden, it will become their fault.

22:23

You know.

22:23

I heard a story recently in the news that

22:26

someone with a Rivian vehicle

22:28

Rivian truck. Now I think I think

22:30

the analogy was the damage if it was a

22:32

gas vehicle would have been half the price.

22:34

It was a twenty six thousand dollars repair,

22:37

and the debate was do you fix it? And

22:40

and it's it's

22:42

it just goes on every day. I've

22:44

heard stories where insurance carriers

22:47

are pulling out of the state of Florida because of the

22:49

cost. Some of it's obviously due to, you know,

22:51

the losses they encountered over the last couple

22:53

of years with weather and hurricanes and so forth,

22:55

but you know, it's it's also because when

22:58

an EV you know, when a hurricane

23:00

hits Florida, and how many evs get

23:02

wiped out as they did in the last couple

23:04

of storms, right, all of a sudden,

23:06

the losses multiply at such a rate

23:09

that the insurance company can't

23:11

make a rate of return on their investment. You know,

23:13

they you know, let's talk how does an insurance

23:15

company make money. My understanding is Obviously

23:18

they're taking the money from you and I and everybody

23:20

else, and then they're investing it. They're putting it into the stock

23:22

market, they're putting it in places. And when

23:24

the market goes down, So now the market

23:26

goes down, the EV cost to repair

23:28

goes up. It's like the perfect storm for you. We

23:31

don't want to do this anymore.

23:33

Yeah, it's a problem, and some

23:35

of it is higher repair costs inherent in the fact

23:37

that the parts are more expensive or less available,

23:39

the mechanics aren't available. But

23:42

that, to be fair, some of

23:44

that works out over time in the sense

23:47

that the training and availability

23:49

of mechanics and parts improves

23:51

over time, but it takes a long time. It's

23:53

not going to happen overnight. And so

23:56

those those are pretty typical features

23:58

of any new product. But the

24:01

fact is, the inherent cost of

24:04

so many of the components in an EV are higher

24:06

than the inherent cost of the conventional

24:09

car. So by definition, it's

24:11

going to be more expensive to repair. And then

24:13

when you add to that this other feature I mentioned,

24:15

which is, you know, there's no single

24:18

components

24:20

as expensive in a conventional car as

24:22

there isn't an EV. When as is

24:24

the battery, and that's that's a pretty

24:27

big risk. You got one thing that

24:29

if it's damaged in a way that's going to make it unsafe,

24:32

you have to write the vehicle off. And of

24:34

course that's I had a friend who's whose

24:36

wife drives a Tesla three.

24:38

It's a nice car. I've driven them a small

24:41

minor fender bender, and they

24:43

wrote it off. Minor says

24:45

nobody was hurt. It was, but it

24:48

caused enough potential damage to the integrity

24:50

of the battery that is it vendor

24:52

bender. It's obviously a little more than that, but

24:55

they wrote it off and it would never have been a write off

24:57

it had been been a conventional vehicle.

25:00

If you're standing in

25:02

in front of two dealerships EV or

25:05

Guess, and you're trying to think about the cost

25:07

of ownership the Guess version, the

25:09

internal combustion engine. You're familiar with that.

25:11

If you've been driving a while, you know.

25:12

What the costs are.

25:14

You know what are the hidden costs with

25:16

that EV that you know people

25:18

need to think about and make a decision based on

25:20

that. You know the things, the things they're not telling

25:23

us. You know, insurance is one of them. Might cost

25:25

to repair as the other.

25:27

Well here, sure,

25:30

but here's the thing. In the current

25:32

environment, given

25:34

what we're doing, how we're subsidizing evs,

25:36

how we're subsidizing the recharging,

25:39

and if you haven't have a garage, there's a brick

25:41

compelling argument to be made for your

25:43

second or third guard to be an ev frankly

25:46

right now, because everybody else's

25:48

is carrying the costs for you. And if

25:50

you, if you, if you're one of the owners that your

25:53

at least you're at lease at lease, are not a buyer,

25:55

and you want to have a car for a few years, you

25:58

know, all all of the digital

26:00

value risk is taken by the less or

26:02

not you in the lease. You get

26:04

the full credit on the lease in

26:06

the first few years of a vehicle. Every vehicle's ownership

26:09

is you know, as long as quality controls reason well, you don't

26:11

how many you don't have high repair costs not

26:13

till later, so you you don't have to worry

26:15

about that. So it's the it's the lease holder's

26:17

problem when they take the vehicle back, so

26:20

and they're refueling costs

26:22

are subsidized. Right now, you're not paying

26:25

road taxes, which you will have to eventually

26:27

but right now you're not. And

26:29

if you could charge it home, your your lecture utility

26:31

is subsidizing the electricity for you.

26:34

So it's, you know, not to

26:36

be facetious, but it's true. I've told

26:39

family members that this is if you want

26:41

to second or third car to drive around

26:43

town for convenience. But I have like one

26:45

of the better quality you have, Bookswagen or the

26:47

TESTA three or the Hundai's are

26:49

nice on too. They're they're nice, they're well make cars,

26:52

especially in the first few years of lights. They're they're

26:55

not as quite as reliable. You're not driving them

26:57

as much, so you don't have to worry about as much. You're not driving a long distance

26:59

because you're using it for local driving. But

27:01

that what that masks is that

27:04

what we're really talking about is not whether an

27:06

individual should buy an EV for their particular

27:09

lifestyle choice. It's when

27:11

the government is saying to us that you could only buy an

27:13

EV and everybody's going to drive one, and that's when

27:15

the hidden costs show up. If the entire

27:17

fuel system for vehicles to switch from

27:19

gasoline to electric, we

27:21

are talking about hundreds

27:23

of billions of dollars of infrastructure

27:26

costs which is not being factored in

27:29

for the charging networks. Hundreds of billions,

27:31

not billions, half a trillion dollars

27:33

to upgrade the electric grid

27:35

to charge all these vehicles, and another

27:37

half a trillion dollars of

27:41

high speed chargers which will be needed on the road.

27:44

So the current plan is to spend seven

27:46

billion dollars I need the chargers out of the Inflation

27:48

Reduction Act. That's a drop in the bucket

27:50

we're going to We're going to need to spend hundreds of billions

27:52

of dollars to get enough of them on the road. Those

27:55

those are where the hidden costs come in that are

27:57

being completely ignored, and

28:00

that that's non trivial. We're talking

28:02

trillion dollars of infrastructure

28:05

that needs to be put in place to

28:08

have a significant share. In

28:10

fact, the majority of vehicles become electric

28:13

fuel instead of gasoline fueled. It's

28:16

these are electrical engineering challenges.

28:18

They're not amenable to, you

28:20

know, magic waving a wand saying, oh, it'll get

28:22

better soon. We know how to do this stuff now, we know

28:24

what it costs now, and then you have not to

28:26

miss.

28:27

About then you have to think about the cost of

28:30

what it's going to take, you know, to the land,

28:32

to the environment to build these things. Trees,

28:34

forests that have to be knocked down a lot.

28:36

There, Mark, let's pull over, take a pause for our last break.

28:39

I'm running Ny in the Car Doctor. We're here with Mark Mills.

28:41

We'll return right after this. Welcome

28:53

back, listeners, Running in the Car Doctor. Here

28:55

with Mark Mills. Mark, let's let's go where

28:57

our original conversation was. At the star

29:00

of this hour. We wanted to talk about EV

29:02

batteries and do a little

29:04

bit of a deep dwell. I'll tell you it's you know, they gave

29:06

us ten hours. We could talk ten hours. You

29:09

know, let's talk a little about the true cost.

29:11

I want to build an EV battery. What's it going to take?

29:15

Well, that's the true cost that EV's costs.

29:17

It's entirely about the battery's It

29:20

takes a lot of stuff, a lot of metals

29:22

and minerals, a lot of chemicals. And this is

29:24

what people if they do a little

29:26

research with the magic Google machine, they can

29:28

figure this out. But the typical battery weighs

29:31

a half a ton, just a battery

29:34

car, which is why the EV's way more and

29:36

why EV's use more aluminum in the frame to cut

29:39

down on the weight penalty from the battery.

29:41

So to replace about sixty

29:43

gallons of gasolane, you know, sixties

29:45

or sixty pounds of gasoline you

29:48

got, you got one thousand pound battery. In

29:50

terms of what they're you know, transporting

29:53

around and that requires digging

29:55

up somewhere on Earth. Are about two

29:57

hundred and fifty tons of the earth said

30:00

this before to get the metals

30:02

and materials to make one battery. That's

30:05

where the money relies is. They're digging up all

30:07

the earth

30:10

to get the copper, to get the aluminum, to get the manganese,

30:12

to get the graphite, to get

30:14

the illuminum

30:17

for the frame, and for the catholic

30:19

and anodes. All that costs

30:21

money. All of it costs more than the iron

30:23

and steel that dominated regular car. A

30:25

regular car, three quarters of its weight, it's iron

30:28

and steel. That's not true for an EV.

30:30

For an EV three quarter of its weight

30:32

are exotic metals and minerals at all cost

30:35

more. You know, copper, the manganese,

30:37

lift him, cobalt often, So

30:40

where will the cost go in the future for

30:42

these complex heavy you know, fuel

30:45

tanks. The battery. They're not going

30:47

down significantly. They crept up

30:49

and then they crept down. Right now, they finished

30:52

their cost curve decline from

30:54

invention, and now the costs are going to

30:56

start creeping up because the marginal

30:59

cost of the next ton of copper,

31:01

the next ton of manganese is rising.

31:04

Is the world's demand starts to rise. And

31:06

it's because we're not opening minds fast enough.

31:08

This whole thing, everything about the future

31:11

price of an EV, the future costume EV,

31:14

can be distilled to a single thing. You want

31:16

to try to predict how fast will

31:18

the world's miners open new minds

31:21

to mine the mega tons of metals

31:23

we need to make EV batteries. We

31:26

know the answer to that. They're not opening them quickly

31:28

right now, they're not investating in them.

31:30

So my guess is they know something

31:33

that the automakers don't know. So they

31:35

they know the mandates are going to end, and

31:37

they're not about to get out of their skis with hundreds

31:40

of billions of dollars of investment to build

31:42

mines over the next decade when the demand

31:45

for those metals is not going to appear because

31:47

no one is going to want to pay the prices

31:49

that are going to be demanded, you know, for

31:51

the batteries. So that's that's

31:54

just sort of the reality that we're living

31:56

with. And this is a mining question. This is not a tech

31:58

This is not a technology

32:01

question. To understand the future price of batteries,

32:03

you need to study the mining industry and the refining

32:05

industry. It's an industry dominated

32:08

by slow cycles, long times

32:10

to build things, billion billions

32:12

and hundreds of billions of dollars of investments, mostly

32:15

foreign. The minds that are all being expanded

32:17

are in Africa, South America, and Asia, mostly

32:20

Chinese. China dominates, utterly,

32:23

utterly dominates the refining of

32:25

the key battery minerals. That

32:28

dominates, I mean they have double

32:30

the market share globally in battery

32:32

minerals that OPEC has. An oil utterly

32:35

dominate the battery minerals market. It will

32:37

for a decade.

32:38

It sort of sounds like it's all about making

32:40

money. Mark. That's about all the time we've got

32:42

right now going. We can continue

32:45

this again if the listeners want, where can they follow

32:47

you and your escapades and what you're

32:49

trying to accomplish, And we appreciate that, is

32:51

there a website they can go to and find out more about

32:53

you and what's going on.

32:55

Yeah, I keep archive all my writings and

32:57

speeches at tech hyphenpundit dot

32:59

com, tech Hyphenpunda dot com.

33:01

It's everything's there, all free,

33:04

easy to find, except for the paywalt stuff. But you

33:06

know, I apologize. I can't control that well. I

33:08

mean, like Wall Street Journal bands,

33:10

those are paywalld yep.

33:11

Gotcha, all right, kettle, Hey, listen, you'll be

33:13

well and we'll talk again real soon. Take good

33:15

care, Thank you, You're

33:17

very welcome. I'm Ronning Any and the card Doctor. I'm back

33:20

right after this. Welcome

33:32

back listeners, you know, ron and Any the car

33:34

Doctor. It's it's always informative,

33:37

to say the least. Talking to Mark

33:39

Mills, and it's going to be interesting

33:41

to see if his two year prediction comes true about

33:44

when the financial hard

33:47

wall or financial brick wall that

33:49

we're supposed to hit with EVS in terms

33:51

of unfeasibility actually comes.

33:53

And I bet you it does, all right. Mark's

33:55

pretty accurate about these things. He's got a good sense of

33:57

where this is going. One of the things he's

34:00

said to me off air was and I

34:02

we're gonna bring them back to talk about this in the

34:04

future at at a higher level, is that

34:07

there's no definitive proof. This

34:09

is kind of staggering. There's no definitive

34:12

proof that evs

34:15

will help reduce CO two emissions,

34:18

and I would

34:20

like to see it if it's out there, because what

34:22

he's saying is there's an offset.

34:24

We create a vehicle that doesn't burn

34:27

fuel, doesn't you know it's it's an electric

34:29

vehicle. But the cost to

34:31

produce that in terms of

34:34

the bulldozer that digs up the dirt, the

34:36

coal plant that produces the electricity,

34:38

the way the materials are manufactured, the

34:40

way you know, we cut down certain

34:42

parts of vegetation and

34:45

forests and things like that. You

34:47

know, it's there's the offset, so you

34:49

know, it's it's it's it's a wash,

34:52

and all we're doing is spending trillions

34:54

of dollars and it just

34:57

it just makes me wonder. I know, from

34:59

a mechanic perspective, at a you

35:01

know, as a garage mechanic level, as I consider

35:03

myself to be, you know, street level mechanic,

35:06

I question who's going to fix all these cars and

35:08

the technology that's there. But that's a that's

35:10

a story for another day. I've had an absolute

35:13

pleasure being with you this weekend, and I thank

35:15

you for being here till the next time. I'm ronning Ady

35:17

in the car doctor, reminding you good mechanics aren't

35:19

expensive, They're priceless. See it.