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we were happy. Twenty twelve, I'm

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Follow a lecture dysfunction wherever you

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0:33

Proxy Conflict normal. overnight. Israel hit

0:35

back and it's bloody tit for

0:38

tat with Iran. This time around

0:40

says explosions were had near the

0:42

city of Is Fun. But.

0:44

The government is done playing the

0:46

attacks and nothing was hit and

0:49

significantly that they have no plans

0:51

to retaliate. Israel unsurprisingly is similarly

0:53

saying little, but we know that

0:55

air defenses were triggered above not

0:58

only a major military airbase near

1:00

his for but also over one

1:02

of Iran's many nuclear facilities. On

1:08

your partisan and in today's Sky News

1:10

daily will be asking why is for

1:12

her and if this is the beginning

1:14

or the end of escalation in the

1:16

Middle East. A

1:21

little later we will head to Israel with

1:23

our International Affairs Editor Dominic y Con has

1:26

been watching her the world responded to those

1:28

latest strikes. The rules of shifted in. That

1:30

does make the region a more dangerous place.

1:32

even though it looks as though now the

1:34

immediate danger of a much bigger ball seems

1:37

to have been averted. At. The

1:39

first up, like speak to Sean Bell

1:41

or Military Analyst Sean. Good to talk

1:43

to you again. How much do we

1:46

actually know about what happened last night?

1:48

Because at first glance, not much. A

1:50

Very little we actually know and I

1:53

suspect that's going to remain the case

1:55

because Israel rarely comments about these sorts

1:57

of attacks and Iran will not one.

2:00

to showcase what damage that Israel has done.

2:02

They will want to sweep it under

2:04

the carpet and move on. They've been

2:06

very clear that actually they don't see

2:08

this as any need of retaliation. And

2:10

in many ways, that ambiguity is probably

2:12

a very good sign because if Israel

2:15

or Iran was to actually advertise what

2:17

had happened, that might contribute to escalation.

2:19

I think the mood music means that

2:21

it looks both sides are looking to

2:23

draw a line under this. What

2:25

do we know though of this

2:27

central Iranian city of Isfahan? Certainly

2:30

there are a number of reasons as

2:32

to why it might be somewhere that

2:34

Israel could at the very least signal

2:36

that it could strike properly if it

2:39

wanted to. I think there's

2:41

a number of things there. Isfahan has got

2:43

some nuclear research facility there. There's over 3,000

2:45

scientists that work in the region. There's also

2:47

a military airfield there. There

2:49

was a concern that Israel might attack

2:52

more high-end nuclear development capability.

2:55

They've not done that.

2:57

And so far, we've also seen no

2:59

reports of casualties. So I

3:01

wouldn't be at all surprised that there's a lot of

3:03

diplomatic messaging being going on behind the scenes to

3:06

be able to conduct a relatively surgical

3:08

strike. I think what's been fascinating though,

3:10

from my perspective, the three positives that

3:12

Israel would take away from this, one

3:14

of which is that Netanyahu would have

3:16

wanted to have the last word, and

3:18

this allows him to have the last

3:20

word he's conducted an attack. Secondly, the

3:22

target appears to be something that's directly

3:24

linked to the attacks last

3:27

Saturday. And thirdly, I think most

3:29

tellingly from a military perspective, Iran

3:32

threw basically the kitchen sink at

3:34

Israel last weekend, 331

3:36

missiles and rockets, and yet

3:39

largely ineffective against the alliance

3:41

of America and Israel predominantly,

3:43

whereas Israel was able to conduct a very

3:46

limited surgical strike. And it does appear that

3:48

got through. That's a powerful message to Iran

3:50

not to escalate because they will get involved

3:53

in a conflict that they can't win. I

3:55

mean, I've heard reports that

3:57

there were some F-14 Tomcats.

4:00

stored there that were taken out or perhaps

4:02

even targeted in this attack. Correct me if

4:04

I'm wrong here, wasn't that the plane that

4:06

Tom Cruise flew in Top Gun many, many

4:08

years ago? Yeah, you're

4:10

betraying your age there a

4:12

little bit, Neil, but you're absolutely right. Because

4:14

this portends to an era when America and

4:17

Iran were much closer. And

4:19

the legacy is that the Iranians still have

4:21

some very old technology. And the

4:23

problem with fighter jets is that they look

4:25

good at air shows whizzing around, lots of

4:27

noise very fast. But the technology in the

4:29

fighter jets, the radars, the electronic

4:31

warfare, the countermeasures, the missiles, that

4:34

is where technology is moved on

4:36

a pace. And that is where

4:38

Israel has kept pace with that technology,

4:40

whereas Iran has not. But the

4:42

harsh reality is a big tube

4:44

full of fuel and tipped with ammunition.

4:47

I'm afraid it doesn't cut it

4:49

in today's high-tech world. You have

4:51

to have lots of other technology wrapped

4:53

in software, in technology that Iran doesn't

4:55

have. And it's blatantly becomes apparent when

4:58

these sorts of strikes are conducted.

5:00

I think that's why most analysts believe that Iran

5:02

doesn't want to pick a fight with Israel,

5:04

because it's a fight it can't win. So

5:07

given that the nuclear science is taking place

5:09

in this part of the world, we should

5:11

then perhaps take this as a very direct

5:13

signal from Israel to Iran, saying, look, we

5:15

know where the things are, we know where

5:17

your manpower is, and we can take it

5:19

out if we want to. Yes,

5:22

but Iran has long argued that it's not

5:24

trying to pursue a nuclear weapons program, and

5:26

all of this is being done purely for

5:29

peaceful means. But the evidence

5:31

suggests they're enriching uranium much closer to what

5:33

you would need for a nuclear weapon. And

5:36

the harsh reality is that the only

5:38

guarantor of security for Iran in this

5:40

very dangerous world would be to develop

5:43

nuclear weapons. And it seems to be

5:45

they're continuing to progress towards that aim.

5:48

To Riff on your point about

5:50

the Iranian capabilities, one then presumes

5:52

that Israel's strike on Iran and

5:54

in the way in which it

5:56

was able apparently to get past

5:58

Iran's air defense. The Point: Some some

6:01

pretty significant problems with their defenses as

6:03

well. Absolutely with the advent of stealth

6:05

technology in Israel, has a thirty Five

6:07

is not invisible, but it allows you

6:09

get closer to an enemy before it

6:11

can see you. Electronic warfare allows you

6:13

to seduce the radar. Seven, A rainy

6:15

and Radar was looking at me as

6:17

a fighter pilot in my Joint Strike

6:20

fighter. I can seduce that radar to

6:22

actually believing I'm actually somewhere else and

6:24

not where I am actually forcing the

6:26

Iranians to fire a missile a shadow.

6:28

And that betrays where the radar. Easy

6:30

for trace. where the surface to air

6:32

missile system is on allows me to

6:34

use technology to take that out and

6:36

that is where away from the Top

6:38

Gun film. Using your analogy which is

6:40

all about missiles and bangs and crashes

6:42

actually war for a struck Now much

6:45

more in the technology regime and that's

6:47

why the West has a huge advantage

6:49

Shot thanks very much. Indeed it just

6:51

a moment will get the view from

6:53

Jerusalem with our International Affairs correspondent Dominic

6:55

One, that's. Okay,

7:04

we ton of attention to Jerusalem know

7:07

or International affairs. Editor Dominic y Con

7:09

has been there watching the response to

7:11

this latest attack. But

7:14

don't I have spawns? Wasn't unexpected. I

7:16

would say that was almost an inevitability

7:19

to it. What was not inevitable was

7:21

where and how hard they would strike.

7:23

Does it seem to you that the

7:25

Israelis parents did listen to the Americans

7:27

on and others are doing a little

7:29

caution: Sunday looks like you're a star

7:31

Think Still quite hard to say is

7:34

informational getting still quite murky but insensible.

7:36

Israelis have a party done and also

7:38

what the radiance of said in response

7:40

and how they reacted. It looks like

7:42

it's for your scripts that Israel's. or

7:44

western allies will be relieved with inadequate he

7:46

cares about stability in the region little so

7:48

or be relieved by because these were these

7:50

were urged by the americans originally to do

7:52

nothing to take the way in and then

7:54

but it seems inevitable they would have to

7:56

do something specific as of the strength of

7:58

opinion here both in side and outside government,

8:01

then they were urged to show restraint, to

8:03

send a message, but not to go so

8:05

far that they would plunge the entire region

8:07

into a much bigger war. The

8:09

fact that it seems limited and the fact

8:12

that the Iranians have effectively said, move

8:14

along, there's not an awful lot to look at

8:16

here, please go back to normal. It does look as

8:18

though the Iranians are not leaping on this as an

8:20

excuse to launch all that war against Israel, which

8:22

I think was the expectation because the Iranians, it's always

8:25

been assumed, do not want a much bigger war. So

8:28

a message sent to the Iranians

8:30

via this attack quite clearly, Dom,

8:32

but also interestingly, a message sent

8:34

to the Americans ahead of this

8:36

attack, unlike of course what happened

8:39

when the Israelis struck the Syrian consulate

8:41

building on the 1st of April. Well, that's

8:44

right. Yeah, if you go back to April the

8:46

1st, the Israelis decided to attack that embassy compound

8:49

in Damascus and didn't really warn the Americans,

8:51

barely warned their own intelligence agencies according to

8:53

some reports, because their assumption seems to have

8:55

been they could get away with it as

8:57

they have by hitting any number

8:59

of Iranian and other targets since

9:01

October the 7th. None of

9:03

those attacks have led to a massive

9:05

response from the Iranians. And

9:07

it seems our expectation was that the

9:09

same would happen attacking this embassy compound,

9:11

even that sovereign diplomatic territory, even though

9:14

there was the greater number of high

9:16

level Iranian figures in that embassy than

9:18

have been targeted by Israel before. Iranians

9:21

didn't see that way. They felt that they had

9:23

to respond, that otherwise they would look weak and

9:25

then they crossed their own red line by attacking

9:27

Israel. But I think the problem for the region

9:30

is that for a number of reasons, a number

9:32

of rules have been broken, but particularly that rule

9:34

that the Iranians set themselves that they had a

9:36

red line, they would never cross directly attacking Israel.

9:38

It would be too costly. They've done so now.

9:41

So the fear amongst Israelis is if they attack

9:43

an Iranian nuclear scientist, if something goes bang

9:45

in Tehran, they can't assume now that Iran

9:47

will not strike back directly. The rules have

9:49

shifted, and that does make the region a

9:51

more dangerous place, even though it looks as

9:54

though now the immediate danger of a much

9:56

bigger war seems to have been averted. And

9:58

one has to presume that the those concerns will

10:00

be shared by plenty of people in Washington,

10:02

of course. What Dom are we

10:04

to read into the fact that the density blink in

10:07

the US Secretary of State, the US Foreign Secretary in

10:09

essence, speaking at that G7 meeting

10:11

of foreign ministers, barely

10:13

said anything about what had happened

10:15

in terms of the Israeli strike

10:17

on Iran beyond making it absolutely

10:20

clear that the United States had

10:22

not been involved in it. Yeah,

10:25

he said a few things. He said that America

10:27

had not been involved. He said he couldn't

10:29

confirm what had happened. He also said that

10:31

America does still not want to have a

10:33

major offensive by Israel into Rafa. And the

10:35

reason that's connected is some reports have claimed

10:37

the Israelis have said to the Americans, we

10:39

will do what you say. We will limit

10:41

our retaliation against Iran on the understanding that

10:43

you let us do what we want to

10:45

do in Rafa. That's the southern

10:47

bit of Gaza, where two million Gazans

10:50

have retreated to because of the onslaught

10:52

further north. But where Israel believes Hamas

10:54

leadership is still based, so Israel wants to go

10:56

in there. And there was these

10:58

reports that some kind of deal has been done.

11:01

So I think it was significant that Blinken pushed

11:03

back against that in the same conference talking about

11:05

this apparent attack on Iran. But

11:08

the fact that he hasn't confirmed it, I think just

11:10

follows the same thing as we've been saying about these

11:12

raids. No one's saying much about this because no one

11:14

wants to go the other side and to do anything

11:16

doing anything to rash. What

11:19

has been the domestic response

11:21

to Israel's retaliation to Iran's

11:24

retaliation to Israel's strike

11:26

on Damascus? I ask only because on

11:28

the face of it, there may well

11:30

be some people, particularly even those close

11:33

to Benjamin Netanyahu, who feel that Israel

11:35

could and should have done much more.

11:38

I mean, one member of the far

11:40

right of the coalition that Netanyahu operates

11:42

within described it as in one word,

11:44

feeble. Yeah. And That one word, sweet,

11:46

is actually the only comment we've had so far

11:49

from the Israeli government confirming it's happened. We Assume

11:51

that Itamar Ben Gewehr was referring to this attack.

11:53

It Didn't make it very clear, but that's the

11:55

assumption. And He's not happy with it because he's

11:57

from the far right end of things politically. In

12:00

this coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu and

12:02

he's been pushing for much more

12:04

aggressive action by same garza, but

12:07

also against Iran and on the

12:09

rights of Israeli politics. As a

12:11

rail fare that that deterrents Israel

12:13

relies upon that deters. Ah, that's

12:15

enemies doing their worst against Israel

12:17

that has been fundamentally undermined by

12:19

October Seventh, but also by that

12:22

failure of anticipating runs retaliation to

12:24

the attacks on the embassy. But

12:26

also they fear now by it's

12:28

not doing enough against Iran. And

12:30

Israelis are acutely aware of the failure

12:32

that has come about of the and

12:35

else happens a Jewish people historically by

12:37

relying on other nations another friends to

12:39

keep them safe Either Israel was set

12:41

up partly because jews felt they couldn't

12:44

rely on other people to protect them

12:46

against what happened to them over history

12:48

So I think you if for the

12:51

Prime minister to looked like he was

12:53

bowing to certain extent to friends and

12:55

allies but still people outside of Israel's

12:57

that's difficult for these are these the.

13:00

That to do, but the richest. Certainly

13:02

a lot of dissatisfaction. Stills about where

13:04

the sleeves Israel, which was already in

13:06

a very vulnerable expose place in the

13:08

wake of October Seventh. What then Dominic

13:10

about the man that faces Binyamin Netanyahu,

13:12

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What would we know

13:14

about this individual week? We talked an

13:16

awful lot of the Benjamin Netanyahu, but

13:18

but precious little about the Ayatollah. So

13:20

far as I say of an alley,

13:22

I have any as a mystery. A

13:24

and Iraqi government is a riddle. Isn't

13:26

an eight months on? It's very hard

13:28

to read. He is the supreme. Leader

13:30

below him as a whole range of

13:32

different government organizations that the president does

13:34

the parliament's others the I R T

13:37

seats thera lots of security agencies about

13:39

the assumes nothing amongst most observers and

13:41

I'm from some these is is visited

13:43

the country the impression you get is

13:46

the one person who really counts is

13:48

the supreme leader ali seventies and that's

13:50

what his intentions of. The most important

13:52

thing he cares about his grip on

13:55

power, the survival of the Islamic revolution

13:57

and the exporting of that revolution across

13:59

the. Apple Iphone Common cause with

14:01

any organization that believes Israel doesn't have a

14:03

right to exist that supposed to Israel's influence

14:06

and the Gemini in the region and also

14:08

say America's so on the one hand how

14:10

many it's I think would have relished and

14:12

encounters against Israel that will burn is she's

14:15

and he's on his credentials on the other

14:17

hand see what to be. Very wary of

14:19

anything that would escalate, unsafe situation of what

14:21

he can control that would have threatened his

14:24

grip on power. Fresh, Sanctions

14:26

have also been in a storm. Any

14:28

chance that this about the sanctions will

14:30

actually have noticeable effect noticeable to did

14:32

to delights of meats at rather than

14:34

perhaps people at yourself in isn't the

14:36

diplomatic circles. I don't think so unless

14:38

I think Iran is is the my

14:40

sanctioned regime on us and either it

14:42

it's hard to work out exactly what

14:44

was left to sanction. Nothing present. Found

14:46

a few more individuals to sanctions are

14:49

is become extremely adept at dodging sanctions.

14:51

It's from friends and logic to the

14:53

East a but also over the Persian

14:55

Gulf. stupid able to aid and abet

14:57

them in that sections of Asian. In

14:59

the same was Russia has also found

15:01

willing accomplices and sanctions have a son.

15:03

This is an extremely challenged economy but

15:05

it has been able to continue without.

15:07

Threatening the regime and I think that's likely

15:09

to last. I think that the significance

15:12

of the sanctions in this particular episode was that

15:14

the West was able to say to Israel we

15:16

had your back on Saturday We defended you as

15:18

we said we would stats anti missile the as

15:20

said system we put in place not just with

15:23

us, but also the Arab states works incredibly well.

15:25

That's something you have to take his when, but

15:27

also the fact that we got your back diplomatically.

15:29

we are going to help you diplomatically. we're going

15:31

to sanction around and that may have been part

15:34

of our the calculus that Netanyahu was wearing up

15:36

as he as he was severe. Between those on

15:38

the right side, you gotta hit around very hard.

15:41

And his allies sang so some restraint. at

15:44

just a complete for what do

15:46

you make of decided yet again

15:49

at palestine seeking statehood at the

15:51

united nations has that application for

15:53

at member status at blocked vetoed

15:56

at by the united states the

15:58

united kingdom abstaining this issue. Well,

16:00

I think on the one hand, it was

16:03

inevitable because both Britain and America believe that

16:05

Palestine should only be created as part of

16:07

a two state solution. And that can't happen

16:09

unilaterally. That has to involve negotiations with Israel.

16:12

It has to be the outcome of negotiations

16:14

not imposed on the region. But yet there

16:16

is a kind of momentum here that's building

16:18

a number of countries voted for the recognition

16:21

of Palestine as a state within the

16:23

UN. I think what it shows Israel,

16:25

though, at the UN that there is

16:28

a continuing ostracization of Israel, the longer

16:30

this war goes on, the more

16:32

it is losing support diplomatically and

16:34

in terms of public opinion around the world. And

16:36

therefore that's why I think we're also going to

16:38

see more and more pressure on Israel to try

16:40

and bring this warring Gaza to an

16:43

end and also pressure on Hamas to release these

16:45

hostages. And the bad news on that front is

16:47

that Hamas now say they believe they only have

16:49

20 women, men

16:52

over a certain age and sick hostages to return.

16:54

Now, the Israelis say that's an extraordinary act of

16:56

bad faith and they said they had 40. But

16:59

there is going to be, I think, a renewed redoubled

17:01

effort diplomatically on both Hamas through Qatar and

17:03

also on Israel to try and bring this

17:05

war to an end. Because what we've seen

17:08

is the specter of all that war looming

17:10

over the region. And that doesn't go away

17:12

as long as this war continues. Don't

17:15

thank you. It's

17:20

certainly difficult to see a sovereign

17:22

nation striking another within its borders,

17:24

its military sites, in fact, as

17:27

an opportunity for de-escalation. But

17:29

that will be the hope as the

17:31

international community engages in yet another round

17:33

of diplomacy in the margins and back

17:36

channels. Both Israel and Iran

17:38

have flexed their muscles. Both

17:40

have a narrative to sell to their domestic audiences.

17:43

But Israel's focus is not

17:45

nearly on Iran. Lebanon and Hezbollah

17:47

are also on their radar, not

17:50

to mention Rafah in Gaza's death.

17:52

The prospect of all-out war in the

17:54

Middle East may have diminished ever

17:57

so slightly. That certainly doesn't mean.

18:00

end to the violence.