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0:58

in the end, 99% of

1:00

the missiles and drones launched on

1:03

Saturday night were intercepted according to the

1:05

Israeli Defence Force. But the

1:07

threat of escalation still hangs over

1:09

the Middle East as Iran warns

1:11

of further potential attacks if

1:14

Israel retaliates. And Benjamin Netanyahu pledges

1:16

to do whatever is necessary to

1:18

defend his country. I'm

1:22

here with Sky's international editor,

1:24

Dominic Waghorn. Hi Dom. Hi

1:26

Rob. Now we'll get on

1:28

to the sort of broader threat of

1:30

escalation and the broader diplomatic response in

1:32

a minute. But can you just take

1:34

us through how this attack actually came

1:36

about and what relevance, if anything, does

1:39

the ongoing conflict in Gaza have into

1:41

this? Yeah, well, this is a major

1:43

escalation in the war in the Middle

1:45

East, but it's obviously not the first.

1:47

In recent times, the most significant escalation

1:49

was that massacre on October the 7th

1:51

when Hamas and other groups broke out

1:53

of the Gaza enclave and massacred more

1:55

Jews than had been killed since the

1:57

Second World War in one day. And

2:00

then there was another major escalation

2:02

after months of war in Gaza

2:05

when Israel presumes to have attacked

2:07

the consulate building of

2:09

the Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing 13

2:12

Iranians, a number of them

2:14

high-level commanders and generals. Now, Israel hasn't

2:16

claimed responsibility, so it's not explained the

2:19

rationale for that attack. But

2:21

ever since then, the Iranians decided and

2:23

have made clear that they will retaliate.

2:26

The Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of

2:28

Iran, twice said that Israel must be

2:30

punished and will be Western countries,

2:32

Arab countries, countries in the region have been

2:34

trying to restrain Iran, but

2:37

it went ahead with this attack, which I think

2:39

surprised many people in terms of the fact that

2:41

it was a direct attack and the scale of

2:43

the attack. There's been a shadow war

2:45

between the two countries for years now, but it's

2:47

the first time that Iran has directly attacked Israel.

2:50

So it's significant development. And obviously, the question now,

2:52

what does it lead to? A

2:54

majority of those drones and missiles were

2:56

brought down last night. Can you talk

2:58

us through practically how Israel and its

3:01

allies did that? Yeah, and I think

3:03

the Israelis will present this as a

3:05

major win, and it was a significant

3:07

military achievement. I think the figures are

3:09

350 missiles or projectiles

3:11

of various forms, so amongst them were drones.

3:14

Amongst those would have been the Shahid's

3:16

drones that we've seen Russia buy off

3:18

Iran and use against the Ukrainians. But

3:20

also, we saw cruise missiles being fired.

3:22

So that's a significant development, not

3:24

just the fact that Iran was directly attacking Israel for

3:27

the first time, but using cruise

3:29

missiles to do so. And according to

3:31

the Israelis, only a few got through, and

3:33

some of them got through to Natavim, the

3:35

air base, which is where the attack

3:37

on the embassy on April 1st was launched from. Now,

3:40

the Iranians are making a great deal of that,

3:42

saying a huge amount of damage was done there.

3:44

The Israelis are saying there wasn't a lot of

3:47

damage. And I think for the Israelis, the consolation

3:49

in this, although it will be deeply worrying for

3:51

Israelis, that their arch enemy has finally attacked them.

3:53

The consolation is that their air defenses and their

3:55

air force prevailed, but also they were supported in

3:57

what was a combined effort by Western air forces.

4:00

Western militaries, but also Arab militaries as well. And

4:02

I think in the run up to this, the

4:04

West has been saying to Israel, we'll have your back. We

4:07

will defend you against whatever Iran throws at you.

4:09

But I suspect there's been a kind

4:11

of quid pro quo in that, which is that

4:14

we will do this on the understanding you don't

4:16

escalate things and make matters worse. And

4:18

it will now see whether Israel honours

4:20

that promise if they made it or decides

4:22

to ignore it for reasons of their own

4:25

national security. We

4:27

of course saw UK involvement last night as

4:29

well. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, has confirmed

4:31

that the RAF did shoot down a number

4:33

of Iranian attack drones. It's

4:36

interesting because initially the MOD were

4:38

briefing that jets were dispatched under

4:40

a separate operation to

4:42

combat Islamic State, that the jets only

4:44

flew over Iraq and Syria, but crucially

4:46

they were authorised to shoot down Iranian

4:49

drones if they needed to. Clearly

4:52

that situation did arise

4:54

last night. Dominic, as we've

4:56

seen in the past, the UK participate in strikes

4:58

against Iranian proxies, the Houthi rebels,

5:00

things like that. How much does

5:02

it raise the stakes that you now literally

5:04

have RAF aircraft shooting down

5:07

Iranian assets? I think

5:09

it's significant in the sense that it makes

5:11

it very clear to Iran that any more

5:13

attacks like this will be dealt with as

5:15

a combined effort by Israel and its allies.

5:17

And I think the worrying thing is it

5:19

kind of draws a dividing line between the

5:21

West and Israel and its allies and Iran.

5:23

I think this escalates into a bigger regional

5:25

war, but I think the worrying thing for

5:27

Iran will be that it seems a number

5:29

of Arab nations also shot these

5:32

projectiles and drones down as they went through

5:34

their skies, so effectively defending

5:36

Israel. Iran projects

5:38

itself as a kind of champion of the

5:40

Islamist cause, but as the sheer

5:42

power in the region, that claim is

5:44

very much resented and challenged by Sunni

5:47

nations and particularly Saudi Arabia. And I

5:49

think anything that kind of deepens the

5:51

chasm between the two sides on this

5:53

sort of fault lines that run through

5:55

the Middle East is potentially dangerous. If

5:57

this leads to any sort of expansion.

6:00

or deeper conflict in the Middle East. In

6:03

terms of the Israeli response to what we

6:05

saw last night, as we sit here

6:07

early Sunday afternoon, it's difficult to know, I

6:09

guess, events moving very quickly. But as

6:12

of now, do you think that

6:14

some sort of military response is

6:16

inevitable given the unprecedented nature of

6:18

what we saw last night, and

6:20

what form could that take, or

6:22

could Israel decide that it doesn't

6:25

want to respond, that it wants to step

6:27

back essentially? On the balance

6:29

of what I know of Israel having lived there

6:31

and observed it for a long time now, I

6:34

think it's probable that they will retaliate in some

6:36

shape or form. We don't know what's

6:38

being said diplomatically behind the scenes, but I think it's

6:40

fair to assume that Israel's going to be becoming

6:42

under a lot of pressure from Britain, from

6:45

European allies, and particularly from America, to call

6:47

it a day, to draw a line under

6:49

this. And Joe

6:51

Biden reportedly said to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

6:53

last night, take this as a win, bank it.

6:57

You've hit the consulate, you

6:59

have proved that you can defend Israel, let's just

7:01

stop it there. And the Iranians

7:04

have said publicly at least they've declared the

7:06

affair concluded. Now, I think the Israelis are

7:08

skeptical about that, so something will, a certain

7:10

amount will depend on whether Iran launches more

7:12

attacks or maybe attacks through proxies, which will

7:14

give them a level of deniability. And I

7:16

think we probably have to ask ourselves, I

7:18

mean, the Israelis are very fond of saying

7:21

to foreigners, how would you deal with this

7:23

if it was happening to you? How

7:25

would we feel if Iran or another hostile

7:27

nation that called us little Satan?

7:30

How would we feel here if we came

7:32

under attack by 350 missiles

7:34

and drones and cruise missiles by

7:36

a hostile nation like that?

7:38

Would there be a political appetite to call it

7:40

a day, to restrain, or would there be real

7:43

pressure on the government to respond? And

7:45

I suspect that the Israelis will feel, the government

7:47

will feel they need to do more to push

7:49

back. Now, they could possibly

7:51

strike IRGC, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps

7:54

assets outside of Iran, in Syria,

7:56

in Lebanon and other places, or

7:58

they could attack. Iranian proxies

8:00

and that I think could sort of

8:02

be a de-escalatory escalation if you pardon the

8:05

kind of oxymoron. So it would be

8:07

an escalation or retaliation but it would it

8:09

would slowly diffuse the situation. If they

8:11

strike targets in Iran Iran will feel that

8:13

has to strike back and then we could

8:16

be in a very dangerous situation. Okay

8:19

let's pause there for a minute when we come back

8:21

we'll look at the broader diplomatic picture and whether this

8:24

could lead to a wider conflict in the Middle East.

8:38

Okay I'm still here with our International Affairs

8:40

Editor Dominic Waghorn. Dom a

8:42

lot of leaders today are talking a lot

8:45

about de-escalating and the risk of a wider

8:47

conflict a wider escalation. What practically does that

8:50

look like and is it possible that it

8:52

drags in Western allies of Israel like the

8:54

UK and the US? The

8:56

nightmare scenario is Israel strikes back hits

8:58

a number of targets inside Iran.

9:01

Iran's air defenses are no match for

9:04

Israeli jets who have a long-range capability

9:06

and it would be well able to penetrate

9:08

Iranian air defenses. If they

9:11

struck somewhere with a high population or a number

9:13

of military were killed the

9:15

Iranians could strike back. They may choose to

9:17

do so by upping the ante by drawing

9:20

in Hezbollah who have a hundred and

9:22

fifty thousand missiles in the hills of

9:24

southern Lebanon according to the Israelis and

9:26

Western intelligence. If they fired some of

9:28

those then it could turn into a

9:30

much hotter war in Israel than we've

9:32

seen so far in Gaza. There is

9:34

the possibility also Iran deciding to strike

9:36

Gulf nations over the Persian Gulf even

9:39

to attack American military assets based in

9:41

some of those Gulf nations although that

9:43

is unlikely. But you can see

9:45

how one retaliation could lead to another

9:47

and I think often we talk

9:49

in terms of sort of diplomatic posturing and

9:52

the power of deterrence. These are quite dry

9:54

terms but war is a

9:56

kinetic, unpredictable, it's not a science

9:58

and you can see how one

10:00

thing can lead to another and it could end

10:02

up ultimately in the region being engulfed in a

10:04

much wider conflict and for that

10:06

reason understandably there's a huge amount of

10:09

diplomatic pressure frantically going on to try

10:11

and calm things down cool heads and

10:13

step back from the brink. How

10:15

much of that diplomatic pressure is done through sort

10:17

of carrot I guess and how much is done

10:20

through stick? Is there a sense

10:22

that you could see sort

10:24

of conditions hinted at for ongoing

10:27

Western support as we saw last night

10:29

from the US and UK if you

10:31

get an Israeli response which is perceived

10:33

as escalating the situation or is that

10:35

something that the US especially would just

10:37

go nowhere near is it mainly down

10:39

to kind of dialogue and persuasion? Well

10:42

I think in terms of America's support for

10:44

Israel the reason Joe Biden has said it's

10:46

iron-clad even though he's had a lot of

10:48

differences with Netanyahu over the way

10:50

the war in Gaza has been fought. The

10:53

reason for that is that Joe

10:55

Biden is an unquestionably supportive believer

10:57

in Israel but also he knows

10:59

that if there's any doubt about

11:01

America's military support for Israel that

11:03

is dangerous for the stability of

11:05

the region because it could embolden

11:07

Israel's enemy. So I think there's

11:09

clear reason for that and that

11:11

will continue. But

11:13

you have to wonder you have to speculate as to what's going

11:15

on at the moment and I think you know diplomacy

11:18

is a process of renegotiating that it's

11:20

possible that Benjamin Netanyahu might be

11:22

saying to the Americans I am being told and

11:24

I'm being pressured both publicly but

11:26

also by my commanders and the

11:29

members of my coalition to react to

11:31

this. I have to for Israel's sake

11:33

for our pride and our prestige and

11:35

our national security. But if you take

11:37

the brakes off in terms of your

11:39

criticism of the way we're fighting in

11:41

Gaza if you let me go ahead with an

11:43

offensive in If you ease that pressure

11:45

on me that you've put me under as

11:47

part of the Gaza conflict then I

11:50

will step back from attacking Iran. Now

11:52

that is purely speculative but

11:54

I think there will be a negotiating process

11:56

going on here. Exactly what shape

11:58

or form that will take. I don't know,

12:01

but I think that there is a

12:03

limit to how much support America will

12:05

give in an ironclad sense to Israel.

12:07

And what they've made very clear is

12:09

that if Israel retaliates against Iran, it

12:11

will be on its own. But in

12:13

terms of how Israel then

12:15

defends a further retaliation from Iran,

12:17

America will almost undoubtedly step in

12:19

as well Israel's allies to defend

12:21

it. What is the

12:24

relevance and the importance of other

12:26

Arab states in the region? We

12:28

saw yesterday countries like Jordan, Iraq,

12:30

Lebanon closing their airspace. How

12:32

will Iran's attack be received by them, especially

12:35

sort of set against the context of recent

12:37

years seeing a kind of

12:39

normalization between Israel and some Arab states

12:41

in the region? Yeah, we've

12:43

seen a process of normalization where

12:45

former enemies of Israel like Saudi

12:47

Arabia have started normalizing relations. So

12:50

that was begun under the Abraham

12:52

Accords by the UAE and other

12:54

Gulf nations. And Saudi Arabia has made

12:56

it pretty clear it wants to join

12:58

in. Shortly before this happened, Saudi Arabia's

13:01

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that

13:03

every day brought Saudi Arabia closer to

13:05

normalizing relations with Israel. And that obviously

13:08

was anathema to the years of the

13:11

mullahs and the clerics in Tehran,

13:13

but also to the allies like Hamas, because

13:15

it would be leaving the Palestinians out in

13:17

the cold in the minds of Hamas and

13:20

it would be weakening Iran's

13:22

control and influence in the region. That's

13:25

why many people believe Hamas launched

13:27

its attack fearful of being left

13:29

out of the process, being ostracized

13:31

and marginalized as part of a

13:34

normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

13:36

That's part of the equation. It's

13:39

important also to say that Saudi Arabia,

13:41

the Gulf states are enemies of Iran.

13:43

They have had a kind of diplomatic

13:45

rapprochement, but there's no love lost between

13:47

them and they resent

13:49

Iran's overbearing presence

13:52

and efforts to project its power around the

13:54

region. So there's no love lost there and

13:57

they haven't given a huge amount of support

13:59

to Hamas. as you can imagine, during

14:02

this war. But in terms of what happened last night,

14:04

I don't think we really know for sure ever

14:06

exactly how much support was given to Israel

14:09

to defend itself. I think they'll present themselves,

14:11

the Jordanians have already saying they were shooting

14:13

down unidentified objects entering their

14:15

airspace and they felt they had

14:17

to do so to defend their

14:19

airspace. But clearly they were rallying

14:21

around Israel to a certain extent,

14:23

defending Israel and doing what

14:25

they could to counter Iran's efforts.

14:28

I think not least because they are very

14:30

worried themselves, of course, about the dangers of

14:32

an escalating conflict in the region and doing

14:34

what they can to dampen down any Iranian

14:37

aggression. So Iran sounds

14:39

relatively isolated in the region. And given that

14:41

so many of those drones and missiles were

14:43

downed, will they see this

14:45

as a successful mission that mission accomplished?

14:48

It seems that as of now

14:50

anyway, Iran is trying to sort of say, look,

14:52

we're ready to draw a line under this. It

14:54

was sort of tit for tat. This was the

14:56

retaliation and we're prepared to not do any more

14:58

unless Israel attacks. So there

15:00

was a lot of posture in that. But who

15:02

were they posturing for? Well, certainly for domestic consumption.

15:04

I think it's fair to say politics there is

15:06

still fairly unstable and the economy is

15:09

not in good shape. So I think anything where

15:11

the Iranian government is able to present itself as

15:14

taking on a little Satan as

15:16

it calls Israel. That is good politics back

15:18

home. But I think that the motivation for

15:20

the Iranian attacks wasn't that it was more

15:22

to do with the fact they had to

15:24

restore their deterrence. If sovereign territories attacked in

15:26

that part of the world and

15:28

left un-retaliated to it's very bad for the

15:30

strength of your deterrence. So I think that

15:33

was the motivation behind what Iran did with

15:35

these attacks. But obviously it helps them in

15:37

terms of increasing political support back

15:39

home. And how does this feed

15:41

into the domestic political picture in Israel? You obviously had

15:44

a situation where Benjamin Netanyahu was

15:46

coming under quite a lot of pressure from

15:48

Western allies over what was going on in

15:50

Gaza, the civilian loss of life, the death

15:52

of the World Central Kitchen aid

15:54

workers and increasing pressure domestically

15:56

as well. Does this change

15:59

that? change his standing

16:01

as a politician? I

16:03

think it does to some extent. And I

16:05

think it's fair to point out that this

16:07

has certainly changed the conversation because until a

16:09

few weeks ago, we were talking about Joe

16:12

Biden so unhappy with the Israeli prime minister

16:14

that he was openly talking about the possibility

16:16

of reducing arms sales to Israel and Joe

16:18

Biden saying that Netanyahu was doing more harm

16:21

than good to Israel. And then

16:23

with the attack on the consulate and now this

16:25

attack on Israel, we're not talking about that anymore.

16:27

So I think it'd be too cynical to say

16:29

that the attack happened because of that, but

16:31

it certainly has changed the dynamics politically. But

16:34

I think that's temporary because I think

16:36

that the fundamental problem with Netanyahu is

16:38

his prescription for dealing with the threat

16:40

of Hamas and also Hezbollah has

16:43

been proven to be flawed. And that

16:45

was managing it in some ways, strengthening

16:47

Hamas, dividing and rule the Palestinians so

16:50

that you could kind of mow the

16:52

grass every few years is rather cynical

16:54

term that's used in Israel, which is

16:56

sort of allow that threat to get

16:59

strong enough to then require

17:01

Israeli military to go in and crush

17:04

it. And what we heard time and time

17:06

again in the weeks after the attack where

17:08

we were out in Israel where people saying

17:10

that hasn't worked, it has failed. Hamas has

17:12

got to be wiped out once and for

17:14

all. And I don't think there's an alternative

17:16

that's been found yet. And I think the

17:18

difficulty for Netanyahu is he is inextricably linked

17:20

with that period and therefore blamed

17:22

to many people in Israel for what happened

17:25

on October the 7th. Obviously

17:27

Hamas carried it out, but the conditions whereby

17:29

that happened, the blame I think is laid

17:31

very much at his door by many Israelis.

17:34

And I don't think what's happening now is going to

17:36

change that. So temporarily his fortunes

17:38

may have been strengthened to some extent,

17:40

but I think long term he's still

17:43

in great trouble politically. Although, I doubt

17:45

this will dominate discussions internationally in the days ahead.

17:47

I think here in the UK and in Westminster, you've

17:50

got MPs coming back to the Commons

17:52

tomorrow whilst Labour, the main opposition party

17:54

has been broadly supportive

17:56

of the UK government's involvement

17:59

in various aspects. of what's going

18:01

on in the Middle East. I imagine there'll be pressure for

18:03

Rishi Sunok to come to the

18:05

Commons tomorrow and explain what's next.

18:07

Thanks Dominic. That's

18:13

it for today, the Daily will be back

18:15

with another episode at 5pm tomorrow. Thank

18:30

you.