0:06

Take. A ride through Northern Virginia these

0:08

days and you might notice of very

0:10

specific kind of building. British.

0:14

Giant kind of warehouse buildings. Their

0:17

windowless, their modern. Ah, In other,

0:19

they're sort of the size of

0:21

the the height of small office

0:23

buildings, but they're just. they're popping

0:25

up everywhere. Even helper

0:27

reports on the energy transition for the

0:30

Washington Post. He says from

0:32

the outside these buildings might look

0:34

like your average warehouse, but inside

0:37

it's more dystopian. It's probably

0:39

looks like something you've seen this I

0:41

Fi movie. I mean there's just a lots

0:43

and lots a computer, servers and job. You

0:45

know it's the shelf after shelford computer equipment.

0:48

Not a lot of people in there are

0:50

not a lot of employees. He's

0:53

talking about data centers, huge warehouses

0:55

full of computers that process everything

0:58

that happens on mine, every photo

1:00

on your I cloud, every app

1:02

on your phone, and increasingly all

1:04

the new ai models being developed.

1:07

As Evan recently reported in the

1:09

post, all these data centers or

1:11

gobbling up a lot of electricity?

1:13

Like a lot A lot. And

1:16

as as new ai models get

1:18

more complex, they need even more

1:20

power. The problem? There isn't enough

1:22

electricity. To go around. The running

1:25

out of power in Northern Virginia to

1:27

supply all the needs of these data

1:29

centers. They ran out in Silicon Valley

1:31

a long time ago and so what's

1:33

happening is the companies are just moving

1:35

to places where there is power places.

1:37

We never sort of expected there to

1:40

be data centers. They're popping up all

1:42

over Georgia. You're particularly the Atlanta region.

1:44

They're popping up in the air. Altoona,

1:46

Iowa The they're going to Omaha now

1:48

because there was a big tower interconnect

1:50

Columbus, Ohio. so they're just spreading all

1:52

over the country. Not. Just a tech

1:54

hubs but to communities that we're not known

1:57

for the tech industry but had available power.

2:01

No. One really saw this coming. Power.

2:03

Companies projections for electric use

2:05

didn't account for the either

2:07

them or for the surgeon

2:09

Us manufacturing. Factories.

2:11

Are getting built at a pace

2:13

not seen in decades Courtesy of

2:16

the Biden Administration signature Infrastructure Bell.

2:18

Oh and there's more demand for electric

2:21

vehicles and other climate friendly stuff is

2:23

going up. All. This

2:25

means we need more electricity.

2:28

It's a concern problem and something is

2:30

going to have to give some time.

2:32

Students and we're really knew that the

2:35

power grid was in trouble birds. It

2:37

wasn't being updated fast enough, the infrastructure

2:39

wasn't getting Belfast and asks but then

2:41

this sort of came out of nowhere

2:43

and so what's happening is just not

2:45

going to be a nos coming online

2:47

fast enough to do all the things

2:50

we wanted to do. The challenges of

2:52

the power grid is just not ready

2:54

to have moved us much power. The

2:56

spouse. So.

3:00

Today I'm so the country is thirsty

3:02

for more electricity and the great Keeper.

3:05

I'm Emily Pack filling in for Lazio Mary

3:08

and your the. How

3:12

the future will be determined, Sick

3:14

around. I

3:29

wanted to dig into electricity demand some

3:31

more. It's because I'm you know, electricity

3:34

demand and the U S was steadily

3:36

increasing from like Nineteen Eighty Nine to

3:38

I think around two thousand and seven.

3:41

And I'm from two thousand and seven

3:43

on. Electricity demand in the

3:45

Us was, you know, relatively

3:47

flat. Why was than. A

3:50

lot of it has to do with assistance

3:52

of the level at which we been able

3:54

to make appliances or and the things we

3:56

use of become a lot more assists in

3:58

and so even as. Population.

4:00

Grows the amounts of energy it takes

4:03

to run an air conditioner, run a

4:05

heating system, or run a dishwasher just

4:07

keeps going down and down as products

4:10

become more efficient and so that was

4:12

a big part of it. And then

4:14

there is also the issue of globalization

4:16

and a lot of manufacturing that used

4:19

to happen in this country stopped happening

4:21

in this country for a walk offs

4:23

and you can't discount so much energy

4:26

the industry requires the and run a

4:28

cement plant or to to makes. Electric

4:30

batteries are to do any of these

4:32

big heavy industries things, they just it

4:35

just takes an immense amount of electricity

4:37

and so as we off sort a

4:39

lot of that stuff to other countries,

4:41

we weren't meeting as much energy as

4:43

we had during periods when there was

4:45

the weather, were manufacturing booms and mouse

4:48

and us. So. Of as

4:50

a now electricity demand is just.

4:52

it's booming and there's a few

4:54

reasons for that. They're the the

4:57

data centers of course. and why

4:59

are we seeing so many. Data.

5:01

Centers is is is is have anything

5:03

to do with like pandemic driven demand

5:06

from remote from remote work and streaming

5:08

and cloud. It's. A lot

5:10

of factors I'm I think people do

5:12

assume a lot of this is just

5:14

so there could be more pet videos.

5:16

The people can you sick talk and

5:18

stream Netflix and that is all related

5:20

have been. These things do take data

5:22

or it's wee bit during those things

5:24

for a while and and during quite

5:27

a lot of it. You know before

5:29

the pandemic and into the pandemic, but

5:31

this demand that we wrote about recently

5:33

this this real surge it it really

5:35

all. It has only shown itself in

5:37

the last if sixty nine months. and

5:39

a lot of that is driven

5:42

when it comes to data centers

5:44

by artificial intelligence that industry is

5:46

just developing so much more rapidly

5:48

than even the tech companies expected

5:51

a to and was kind of

5:53

arms race to as quickly developed

5:55

artificial intelligence as possible did it

5:57

has has all kinds of implications

6:00

There's also concern that if we don't

6:02

build these data centers and take

6:04

control of this industry, you

6:07

know, arrival kit, Russia can or China

6:09

can, China has lots of hydropower and

6:11

that's a concern too. So no one's

6:13

really working too hard to slow down

6:15

the development to this, but it

6:17

just takes an immense amount of power as

6:20

the artificial intelligence functions

6:23

become more sophisticated. So if

6:25

we can just like get nerdy a little

6:27

bit or like dig into that, I mean,

6:29

why do these centers use so much electricity?

6:31

What is the electricity doing and powering?

6:34

So when you want to do these kind

6:36

of artificial intelligence supercomputing

6:39

exercises and you want artificial

6:41

intelligence to sort

6:43

of perform at the

6:46

level of, you know, that goes beyond genius.

6:48

So they say artificial intelligence is already kind

6:50

of performing at like an IQ level equivalent

6:52

to like, you know, Albert Einstein. And

6:55

it takes just a ton of computing

6:57

power to make a computer that smart

6:59

and do all those things that smart,

7:01

just the data and the speed that's

7:03

needed. And

7:05

it takes an immense amount of power to bring

7:08

all that data in. And, you know, I mean,

7:10

I'm not a tech reporter or computer

7:13

scientist by any means, but the way

7:15

it's been explained to me is that as

7:17

these applications become ever more

7:19

sophisticated, they just require more

7:22

and more horsepower, computing horsepower.

7:25

Okay. And so besides AI, the

7:27

second big reason for the increase

7:30

in demand for power is manufacturing. And

7:33

this is a lot of it's coming

7:35

from the Biden administration and the inflation

7:37

reduction act and some other legislation. And

7:40

I know at Axios I've covered

7:43

sort of the boom in

7:45

building factories right now, all

7:48

these factories coming online to do all this different kind of stuff. I

7:51

guess what I'm asking is, you know, what is

7:53

the scale now of manufacturing that we're seeing in the

7:55

US? How is that impacting the power grid

7:58

and what kind of products are these? factories

8:00

producing? So the boom

8:02

in manufacturing is having a big impact

8:04

on the outlook for the grid. Since

8:07

the Inflation Reduction Act was passed,

8:10

the Biden administration says 200 factories have

8:12

been announced, 200 new factories. And

8:17

these factories, you know, we

8:19

haven't had a building boom of

8:21

factories like this in decades. And

8:24

so that boom was driven in large

8:26

part by these subsidies and the Inflation

8:29

Reduction Act, we wanted to bring all

8:31

these products that were being made in China

8:34

and other places abroad back to

8:36

the US, in part to

8:38

spur the economy and give the US

8:41

some more control over these supply chains,

8:43

but also, you know, for national security

8:45

reasons, as we're going through this energy

8:47

transition and we're more

8:49

and more relying on solar panels,

8:51

on batteries for our cars, on

8:53

heat pumps, on all

8:56

these things that involve

8:58

electrification and green

9:00

energy. The worry is

9:02

that if we don't control these supply chains and

9:05

we don't make these things here, we may not

9:07

be able to get these

9:09

products later or we may not be able to have

9:11

control over the prices. And so

9:13

you're just seeing this boom in factories

9:15

making everything from like industrial

9:18

batteries that help

9:20

store solar energy for power plants

9:22

to car batteries, to solar

9:24

panels, to you know, components for

9:26

wind farms. And these are all

9:29

things, I mean, if you're going to make

9:31

solar panels, you know, it takes multiple plants.

9:33

It's not just, you know, one plant, but

9:35

like everything else we're talking about, it takes

9:37

a lot of energy to make this stuff

9:39

and, you know, that's that's where

9:42

the tension is. And

9:44

so it's not just the factories

9:46

and the plants demanding so much

9:48

power, it's people like me

9:50

in our homes trying to

9:52

be environmentally conscious, switching to

9:54

more electric products, right,

9:57

like electric stoves, cars, heating

9:59

systems. Is that having an impact

10:01

also on the surging demand? It's

10:03

having an impact, but it had been baked in.

10:05

It was assumed we were all going to be

10:07

transitioning over to electric vehicles sometime

10:10

in the 2030s or early 2040s. The

10:14

plan was to make the power grid carbon

10:17

neutral in sometime in the 2030s also.

10:21

So these were all sort of planned and expected,

10:23

and it was looking like it was going to

10:25

be a big challenge to get the power grid

10:27

ready for all these things. But

10:30

it seemed not an insurmountable challenge.

10:33

As soon as all of this need

10:35

from the tech industry,

10:38

coupled with all of this

10:40

manufacturing that just a few

10:42

years ago we didn't expect to come back here happening at

10:45

the same time, what it means

10:47

is that the power we thought was going

10:49

to be there for all of us to

10:51

make this transition seamlessly is going

10:53

to be kind of harder to come by. And it

10:55

could mean that if

10:58

you get an electric vehicle, for example, it's

11:01

great you're driving an electric vehicle at zero emissions,

11:03

but it may take

11:05

much longer than we'd anticipated for

11:07

that electric vehicle to actually be

11:09

powered by solar power from your

11:11

utility. And the utility, because

11:14

they're short on power, may

11:16

be seeking permits from regulators to open

11:18

more gas plants and in a lot

11:20

of cases even coal plants. And

11:23

so you may be running the electric vehicle, which

11:25

is great, but the power that's juicing it is

11:28

coal or gas instead of solar. When

11:35

we come back, could the demand for electricity

11:37

slow down the transition to clean energy? I

11:50

mean, there's all this increased demand for

11:53

power because we're trying to shift to clean

11:56

energy. But at the

11:58

same time, the increase in demand means that that

12:00

energy companies can't keep up in a clean

12:02

way, and they want to keep the

12:05

old fossil fuel power plants, they're

12:07

running on coal and natural gas open. It's

12:11

hard to sort of square the circle there,

12:14

right? Is

12:16

the surge in demand throwing a

12:18

wrench in the conversion to

12:20

clean energy? The surge

12:23

in demand is definitely complicating the

12:25

energy transition. The plan to

12:27

bring in all this wind and solar power,

12:29

these plans are still moving forward, but we're

12:32

seeing because there's so much

12:34

demand and it's going up so fast that

12:37

even with all the wind and solar

12:39

and geothermal power that's planned to come

12:41

on the grid, it's

12:43

just not gonna be enough. And the

12:45

demand is just outpacing it.

12:48

And utilities are saying that we

12:50

just can't bring enough of this

12:52

renewable energy on as quickly as is going

12:54

to be needed. So we need

12:57

to delay retirements of some of these coal plants,

12:59

we need to delay retirements of gas plants, we

13:01

need to build some of these gas plants because

13:03

they're easier to interconnect with

13:05

the grid the way the infrastructure works

13:07

now. Mind you that this

13:10

is not without controversy, delaying the

13:12

retirement of a coal plant can be more lucrative

13:14

for them. And so there

13:16

is suspicion that are the utilities using

13:18

this moment to

13:20

just say, we need to

13:22

keep all this fossil fuel generation online when

13:25

there's questions about how true

13:27

that really is. And so this is playing out in a

13:29

lot of states, there are just fights

13:31

going on about the extent to which utilities should be

13:33

allowed to keep on this fossil generation

13:35

and the extent to which they

13:38

should be nudged to work

13:40

harder to bring more renewable energy

13:42

on quicker, even as the surge

13:45

in demand for electricity plays out.

13:48

But not to hammer this too much,

13:50

but I mean, if the demand to

13:52

produce renewable energy supplies like

13:55

electric vehicles or solar panels. is

14:00

basically creating a demand

14:02

for non-renewable energy sources

14:05

like coal and natural gas. I mean, this is

14:08

a problem. This is sort of straining

14:12

to find a metaphor, but it's like this

14:14

seems quite counterproductive. If we want

14:16

to speed up the transition to

14:18

renewables, but we can't do it

14:20

without the dirty energy supplies, that's

14:22

a big problem. How

14:25

is it being addressed? It's

14:27

a really complicated puzzle. What you're

14:30

seeing happen is companies that maybe

14:32

they're making clean tech, they're making

14:35

the batteries and the solar panels

14:37

and the electric vehicles and

14:39

even the tech companies that are building these

14:42

big data centers, they'll say, we're

14:44

running on zero emissions power. We

14:47

understand that we're part of the energy

14:49

transition and we're making sure that all

14:51

the power that we're using is zero

14:53

emissions. That sounds great, of

14:55

course, but there's a finite supply

14:58

of zero emissions power available. Even

15:00

if Microsoft claims it for this data

15:03

center, if a data center is taking

15:05

up the equivalent of energy

15:07

that it takes to power 80,000 homes and then

15:09

those 80,000 homes can't get

15:12

access to renewable

15:14

energy because Microsoft claimed it and there's just

15:17

not that much on their local grid or

15:19

not enough for everyone, they wind

15:21

up using the gas plant. When

15:23

you step back and look at the big picture, the

15:25

fact is there's a limited supply, there's a

15:28

big supply, but it's limited of renewable energy

15:30

out there. It

15:33

is a legitimate problem. Why

15:35

can't the power grid keep up with this growth?

15:37

I think we did an episode maybe

15:40

last year, months back, just about

15:42

how infrastructure is aging and it's

15:44

hard to get these plans to do

15:46

more. Is

15:49

that why the power grid can't keep

15:51

up with this? Why we don't have

15:53

enough energy to meet the demand? Yeah.

15:57

What's happening is we're just not

15:59

building transmission lines. and transfer

16:01

stations at the pace we were before.

16:03

Some of it is related to supply

16:06

chains and challenges getting the needed

16:08

supplies, but a lot of it is really just

16:10

about the permitting. So federal

16:13

regulators don't have much authority to just say,

16:15

we're putting power line here and it's gonna

16:17

go through these three states and we're gonna

16:19

use eminent domain and that's gonna be that.

16:21

It goes down to the states and

16:24

the power grid is, it's really

16:26

interconnected regional grids. And

16:29

so one state may have lots

16:31

of resources for like a lot of wind or

16:33

a lot of sun where it's a good place

16:35

to build a solar

16:38

farm or wind farm. And, but

16:40

they need to get that energy to another

16:42

state where the population centers are, the data

16:44

centers are. And then the

16:46

states wind up getting into these big sites about,

16:48

okay, who's gonna pay for this transmission? How's it

16:50

gonna work out? Is the company gonna pay? Why

16:53

are these lines going through, you

16:55

know, this rancher's property? He doesn't want

16:58

these things there. And so

17:00

there's just all of these fights. Evan

17:02

says another big issue is the environmental

17:04

review system. Right now landowners

17:06

can file lawsuits that take decades

17:09

to resolve, which then drags out

17:11

the process of building new infrastructure

17:13

even more. And so what you're

17:15

hearing right now on Capitol Hill is this

17:17

big debate about permitting reform. And that's exactly

17:19

what I'm talking about. Okay, so can you

17:21

change the environmental review process so the

17:24

lawsuits can't drag on for 14

17:26

years? And it all sounds

17:28

great. And every lawmaker you talk to

17:30

will say, we're all for permitting reform.

17:33

When it gets down to it, you know, this

17:36

means changing the rules and giving,

17:38

you know, landowners and

17:40

voters less recourse and

17:43

less say in where these power lines

17:45

go. And that's politically fraught.

17:47

So yes, the infrastructure is aging.

17:49

And the reason it's aging is because there's

17:52

just so many fights over any proposal to

17:54

build these new power lines. They're just really

17:56

hard to get built. It's just

17:58

like another... real estate, horrible

18:01

story in the United States, because everything

18:03

is so local. And all these little

18:06

fights happen at the state

18:08

level and the local level. Like in an ideal

18:10

world, you'd have the federal government coming in and

18:12

sort of planning this stuff

18:14

out better, right? Especially considering all

18:16

the money at the federal level.

18:19

Yeah, I mean, that's the way they do

18:21

it in some other countries. Obviously, you can

18:24

go too far in the other direction. I mean,

18:27

one of the concerns is that in China,

18:29

they don't worry about what local

18:31

residents have to say about where power plant

18:33

is going, or where transmission lines going, and

18:35

they can just build whatever they want, where

18:37

they want. But that

18:39

brings all kinds of other issues. But that is a

18:41

concern when it comes to this arms

18:43

race with AI. China

18:46

has so much energy, and they can just build

18:48

power plants, whatever they feel like it, where they feel

18:50

like it. And the concern is,

18:52

well, they have all this power to do

18:55

whatever they want. And leapfrog the US tech

18:57

companies in artificial intelligence

18:59

development. Are local

19:01

authorities able to prioritize certain projects? I mean,

19:03

I know one thing we didn't talk about

19:05

that's taking up some power demand

19:08

right now is crypto mining. You'd

19:11

think that if local authorities could prioritize,

19:13

they would maybe start with the

19:16

data centers that are powering

19:18

AI and streaming or

19:21

the factories and sort of move crypto down

19:23

the line. Are they able to do that?

19:26

That's a really interesting question. And

19:28

one that every

19:31

time I asked, people were just really grappling

19:33

with and there was a lot of hand

19:35

wringing over it. I mean, the answer right

19:38

now is they can't. And in a lot

19:40

of places, not

19:42

only can the authorities not decide, okay,

19:45

we want to prioritize this project

19:47

because it's better for the economy and better

19:49

for the community over

19:52

this project when it comes to giving power

19:55

hookups to the grid. There are even laws

19:57

in some places specifically prohibiting

20:00

utilities from prioritizing anything

20:02

over anything and they're to protect

20:04

an industry like crypto mining. One

20:07

question I have is, I mean, who's

20:09

going to pay for all this for the updates

20:12

in the power grid needed to keep up with

20:14

demand? You know, if

20:17

we do succeed in ramping up

20:19

power production, is that something that

20:21

you'll have to pay for in your electric bill? Or

20:24

if we do ramp up, does that

20:26

mean my electric bill maybe goes down

20:28

because there's more power? Yeah, that is

20:30

a really interesting question because I was

20:33

talking to a utility

20:35

executive in Texas recently

20:38

and was asking about all of this demand and

20:40

who's going to pay for it and who's going

20:42

to pay for the infrastructure because the companies that

20:45

are using the factories and the data

20:47

centers that are causing this surge

20:50

in demand are saying we're going

20:52

to pay for all the infrastructure we

20:54

use and anytime a utility needs to

20:57

bring a whole bunch of new power down because

21:00

of us, we'll make sure we're footing the

21:02

bill. And he said, you know,

21:04

that's kind of the public line,

21:07

but you can't satisfy all

21:09

of this demand that's coming right now

21:12

without everyone's rates going up. And he

21:14

said just the price per

21:16

unit of power, everyone should expect it to go

21:18

up and it's not just the burden is not

21:20

just going to be shouldered by these companies that

21:22

are using massive amounts of it

21:24

because, you know, when all of this

21:27

need for power happens and all this infrastructure

21:29

needs to be built, it's

21:31

not just a few companies that pay for it, everyone winds

21:33

up paying for it. So I'm

21:35

looking at the charts in your story, which

21:38

have these projections of demand. And

21:42

it's like, we probably don't have enough

21:44

supply of energy. Like

21:47

on a practical level, what does it mean?

21:49

Like, does this mean that,

21:51

you know, AI won't advance as quickly as

21:53

it needs to? Does it mean that there's

21:55

going to be like rolling blackouts? Like how,

21:58

how worried should people be? that

22:00

the US doesn't have enough

22:03

electric power to meet the demand or the

22:05

demands we see coming online in the future.

22:08

What we're seeing right now is it

22:10

means that companies that want to build

22:12

something, whether it be a factory or

22:14

a data center, they're having to wait

22:16

longer than expected to be able to

22:18

get the power they need. Unless

22:21

there are some changes quickly and some

22:23

infrastructure gets built quickly, the wait

22:26

times for getting that power are going

22:28

to expand and it's going

22:30

to take longer and longer.

22:32

Some of them are starting to look at like,

22:35

can we build a small nuclear plant on our

22:37

property? Can we build our micro grid

22:39

with a solar farm? There's

22:42

going to be some challenging

22:44

decisions that will have to be made. Will it mean

22:46

that companies that need a lot of

22:48

power are just going to be told that they

22:50

can't get it on the timeline they need? And

22:52

does it chase them away to other countries? Does

22:56

it mean that the transition toward

22:59

cleaner energy for the rest of us who want

23:01

to use electric vehicles and

23:03

heat pumps in our homes, that those things

23:05

are going to be run on coal and

23:07

gas power long past the point we expected

23:10

them to? Or does

23:12

it mean we're rolling blackouts? We're

23:15

already at a point in this country

23:17

where we're seeing when it gets really

23:19

hot in the summer with extreme weather

23:21

or really cold in the winter, these

23:24

kind of rolling outages that we're

23:26

just not accustomed to. Maybe in California

23:28

it was something people were familiar with,

23:30

but now we're seeing them in Texas,

23:32

we're seeing them in Midwest, the grid

23:35

is already so precarious. So

23:37

this does layer on a bunch

23:40

of other potential problems unless this

23:43

is addressed very quickly. Yeah,

23:46

I mean anytime the solution to a

23:48

problem is build small nuclear plant, I'm

23:50

thinking the problem is very, very big.

23:53

Yeah, I think that's the two points. My

23:57

last question for you that I've been

23:59

thinking about is... is, I mean,

24:01

for hundreds of years now, we've

24:04

used more and more energy and

24:06

power, and that's fueled immense

24:09

economic growth in the United States

24:11

and in most developed countries.

24:16

Are we reaching the limits of that now? Well,

24:19

we're still using more and more. I think

24:21

that's the thing. We're figuring out how to

24:23

use it smarter and smarter, but we're

24:26

just using so much that

24:28

we need to start prioritizing,

24:32

which everyone is

24:34

loath to do because we've never had to do

24:36

that before. We've never had to say, okay,

24:39

it really does make more sense to get this battery

24:41

plant in our community, and this is going

24:43

to employ a lot of people, and they

24:46

need the energy, a crypto mining facility,

24:48

okay, maybe they'll bring in some tax revenue,

24:50

but that doesn't really make as much sense

24:52

for our community. Having to

24:55

make these decisions is just something we're not accustomed

24:57

to, so whether we go

24:59

in a route where we start making those decisions,

25:02

we'll see, but a lot of people I'm talking to who

25:05

are sort of running the grant and are experts in

25:07

this are having a hard time seeing how we get

25:09

there, but also having a hard time seeing how we

25:12

keep the electricity system afloat without

25:14

going there. Evan,

25:18

thank you so much. Thank you so much

25:20

for having me on. Evan

25:23

Halper is a business reporter at The

25:25

Washington Post covering the energy transition. And

25:27

that's it for our show today. What

25:29

Next TBD is produced by Evan Campbell,

25:31

Anna Phillips, and Patrick Ford. Our

25:34

show is edited by Paige Osborne. Alicia

25:37

Montgomery is vice president of audio for

25:39

Slate. TBD is part of the larger

25:41

What Next family. If you're a

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fan of the show, I have a request for you. Become

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head on over to slate.com/whatnextplus to

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sign up. We'll be back

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next week with another episode. I'm

25:55

Emily Peck, filling in for Lizzie O'Leary, and

25:58

you can catch me over on Slate Money every Saturday. Thanks

26:00

for listening.