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by state. Restrictions apply. Seasight for

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details. The.

1:40

Atlantic's Graham Would is living in

1:42

Tel Aviv right now. And. Over

1:45

the last couple of weeks he

1:47

says it's been impossible to ignore

1:49

some kind of attack was imminent.

1:54

And. that that actually has affected daily life

1:56

to i mean even something as simple as

1:58

using gps on your phone If

2:01

you were flying into Ben Gurion Airport recently

2:04

and you looked at your phone, Google Maps

2:06

or whatever, it might show

2:08

that you're actually flying into Beirut or into

2:10

Cairo. Huh. Why? Just

2:13

because it's scrambled? Yeah, it's been scrambled.

2:15

So if there's some kind of drone

2:17

or whatever that's using GPS that's trying

2:19

to attack all flights into Ben

2:22

Gurion and they're using GPS, they might

2:24

end up going to Lebanon and attacking

2:26

a Middle Eastern Airlines flight. So it's

2:29

just a constant reminder that something's going to happen.

2:33

Israel has been on high alert since the beginning

2:35

of the month. There is an

2:37

escalation of tension in the Middle East

2:39

tonight beginning in Damascus, Syria. On

2:42

April 1st, Israel targeted and killed

2:44

senior members of the Iranian Guard

2:46

Corps in a consulate building in

2:48

Syria. Essentially what happened

2:51

today is the decapitation of IRGC

2:53

leadership in Syria and Lebanon. It

2:55

wasn't only- Right away, Iran vowed

2:58

revenge. And U.S. officials say

3:00

that attack could come at any moment. U.S.

3:02

has issued a travel warning for Israel because of

3:04

it and tonight President Biden- And then on

3:07

Saturday. We begin tonight in

3:09

the Middle East where Israel is under

3:11

attack. Iran launching hundreds of missiles and

3:13

drones at the country streaking westwards across

3:15

the region with explosions illuminating the night

3:17

sky above Israel and the West Bank

3:20

and has panicked civilians below rushing to

3:22

get to safety. The

3:24

strange thing about this attack though, for Graham,

3:27

is how lucky it made him feel. The

3:29

damage was minimal despite hundreds of

3:32

explosives sailing toward Israel all at once.

3:35

When Graham got the news of the incoming fire, it was

3:38

bedtime. The drones were still

3:40

mid-journey from hundreds of miles away. He

3:43

figured I might as well get some sleep, let

3:45

the air raid sirens wake me up in a

3:47

few hours. Yeah, I thought

3:49

that Iran had basically set my alarm

3:51

for me. You know, I was pretty much

3:53

assuming that I've got a few hours where I can get

3:56

some sleep and then after that it's going to get really

3:58

interesting. pick

4:00

up? No, to my

4:02

great surprise, no

4:04

sirens went off at all. I woke

4:06

up and looked outside and saw

4:09

the sun shining on a beautiful

4:12

April day in Tel Aviv. And

4:14

that's, as we now know, because the

4:17

attack never made it into Israeli airspace.

4:23

Are things calm now? I

4:26

think by the standards of countries that

4:29

have just had flocks

4:31

of drones, murder

4:33

drones, and ballistic missiles sent

4:35

at it, things are pretty

4:37

calm here. But there's also

4:39

a broader sense that there's

4:41

a new dispensation that

4:44

Israel is living under with

4:46

Iran. And in the past, Iran

4:48

has said, we're going to keep

4:51

a kind of respectful distance. And

4:53

apparently that's no longer the case. Today

4:58

on the show, after this weekend's

5:00

attack, the question is

5:02

what will Israel do now? I'm

5:06

Mary Harris. You're listening to What Next? Stick

5:09

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Dot Com/credit Card. Gonna.

6:58

Go back a little bit if we can. And

7:00

talk about how he got here

7:02

Because I've done a couple of

7:04

shows that have basically concluded. And.

7:07

You said is to. Iran.

7:09

Does not. Want regional war in

7:12

the Middle East. But.

7:14

The fact. Three. Hundred

7:16

plus drones and rockets and from

7:19

Iran just whiz. Towards.

7:21

Israel. It seems to

7:23

belie that conclusion Switched Wanna talk

7:25

about house things? Heated up in

7:27

this way. Yeah it

7:30

is. Let first say. The

7:32

idea that Iran doesn't want

7:35

to original war as to

7:37

be interrogated a little bit.

7:40

The never Iran that it

7:42

has disrupted Syria, Iraq, Yemen.

7:45

it's proxies are attacking international

7:47

interests left and right. So.

7:51

What? It doesn't want It is

7:53

an all out direct confrontation with

7:55

Israel and that seems still to

7:57

be the case. But. Still,

8:01

Thrilled about causing havoc and

8:03

advancing it's interests that way.

8:06

So chaos, but not actual.

8:09

War. Between countries. Yeah,

8:12

exactly what it likes to turn

8:14

up to and ratchet up the

8:16

tensions in many different places and

8:18

take advantage of that when it

8:20

can be scoots destroyed the countries

8:22

of Syria and much of Yemen

8:24

in the course about. So that's

8:26

just what you what Iran has

8:28

done. The thought of change in

8:30

it's in it's strategy Israel. It

8:32

in addition to looking direct point

8:34

directly after Hamas in Gaza is

8:36

hasn't had as it's promised from

8:38

the beginning. this strategy of finding

8:40

anyone who's responsible. Elsewhere so that

8:43

they they kill the general in

8:45

the Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran

8:47

and Mohammed preserves. I had the

8:49

who was in an annex to

8:51

the Iranian consulate in Damascus but

8:54

this was either something new and

8:56

that really kicks up the the

8:58

the stakes are things cause you're

9:00

not supposed to attack conflicts, violation

9:02

of international law and Israel is

9:04

said Well it wasn't really the

9:06

consulate, it was just next door

9:09

building and was be used for

9:11

military purposes. And either way,

9:13

this guy was bad. So when that

9:15

happened clearly there was a a step

9:18

the had had been taken that that

9:20

could on balance even the precarious equilibrium

9:22

that was there before. You. Mention

9:25

the April First Attack. Why

9:27

did that action. Necessitate

9:29

or response from Iran. Iran

9:33

and Israel. Just like Iran

9:35

of United States there is

9:37

a kind of understanding of

9:39

oh what's loud and what's

9:41

not and whenever one side

9:43

upset that understand and goes

9:45

too far. Then. it's

9:47

also part of this kind of

9:50

makov dad's that the country's do

9:52

well where they punish the other

9:54

side that they retaliate as a

9:56

way of pushing the equilibrium back

9:59

to perform conditions. So

10:02

that's what happened on April Fool's Day when

10:05

Zahidi was killed, where there

10:07

was an understanding that yes, the Israelis

10:09

will pick off Hezbollah

10:11

leaders, they will pick off Iranian

10:14

proxies, they'll even pick off

10:16

Iranians. But there

10:18

are areas that will be considered sacrosanct

10:21

and the areas that are connected

10:23

to consulates would be among those.

10:25

This is an ironic thing, of

10:27

course, because Iran, from its

10:29

very founding as an Islamic Republic, of course,

10:31

was invading consulates. And so it's kind of

10:34

amusing that they would be sensitive to the

10:36

same thing happening to them. But the

10:38

very upsetting thing for Iranian security forces to

10:40

realize that the limits of the Israelis are

10:43

not what they thought they would be. And

10:46

that explains, of course, why they thought

10:48

it was so important to retaliate. Because

10:50

if Israel is going to push further

10:52

than it has previously pushed, then

10:55

Iran says to itself, okay, that

10:57

means we have to push back.

11:00

And whatever the revision is that

11:02

we decide on how we're going to be treating

11:04

each other, it wasn't what we thought and

11:06

we'll do what we can to make sure that it doesn't move too

11:08

far. It's really interesting to

11:10

me what happened in the days after the

11:13

April 1st attack, because it

11:16

was clear that

11:19

Iran was thinking about

11:21

retaliation. For about a week,

11:24

there were headlines like, expect

11:26

an attack in Israel in the next two days,

11:28

those sorts of things. But

11:31

it sounds like during that time,

11:33

the United States also went

11:36

to allies in the region and

11:38

basically said, can you help

11:40

us out, given that we know that

11:43

Iran is looking to respond here? Can

11:45

you explain what happened? Yeah,

11:48

so the United States, according

11:50

to reporting from Reuters and elsewhere,

11:53

went to Arab

11:55

countries in the region that it

11:58

has relations with. We're talking about about

12:00

the United Arab Emirates, Saudi

12:02

Arabia, Qatar, Iraq. Jordan,

12:06

you are in touch with Iran. You talk

12:08

to Iran, we do not. We do not

12:10

have relations with them, but we would like

12:12

you to talk to Iran and deliver the

12:14

message that they should be

12:16

measured in their response to Israel, that

12:20

there are lines that should not be crossed and

12:22

do what you can to bring down the tensions.

12:24

And so there

12:26

were conversations that were initiated between the

12:28

foreign ministers of those countries and the

12:31

foreign minister of Iran, trying to make

12:33

sure that whatever happened didn't

12:35

get out of hand. And

12:38

then once it became clear that

12:40

something was going to happen, how

12:43

did these countries allow

12:46

Israel and

12:48

the United States acting on behalf of Israel

12:52

to essentially protect

12:54

Israeli people? Yeah,

12:56

I think the most

12:58

incredible thing that we

13:01

saw after the Iranian counter attack

13:05

was this extraordinary shield that

13:07

was essentially put up between Iran and

13:09

Israel by

13:12

Arab countries, whose security

13:16

alliances is still really fresh. And for

13:18

me, as someone who's been reporting in

13:20

this region for more than 20 years,

13:23

kind of vertigo inducing

13:25

to observe. What we're

13:27

talking about here is the United Arab Emirates

13:29

and Saudi Arabia and Jordan jointly

13:32

helping Israel defend itself

13:34

against an attack. This

13:36

seems new to me, really new. It

13:40

really is, yeah. I mean, Jordan, of

13:42

course, has had relations with Israel for

13:44

several decades. So that's not so

13:46

new. Saudi Arabia does not

13:48

have relations with Israel but does have a kind

13:51

of security, shared interest

13:53

and definitely a security relationship.

13:55

These countries opened their airspace

13:58

to Israel and other countries. and

14:00

in some cases probably with their

14:02

own militaries plucked out of the

14:04

air the weapons that were headed

14:06

toward Israel and saved Israel from

14:09

From suffering serious damage if

14:11

20 years ago you you had said

14:13

Saudi Arabia saved Israel from serious damage

14:16

It would have been understood to be some

14:18

kind of you're having some kind of aneurysm

14:20

There was some malfunction in your understanding of

14:22

how the world is working, but that's how

14:24

it worked Overwhelmingly the

14:26

300 plus projectiles that were

14:28

being sent toward Israel Were

14:31

destroyed before they even arrived before they

14:33

even came within Israel's borders

14:35

before we could find out what their intent

14:37

was there's some

14:40

question of course like Were

14:43

were the Iranians just lobbing softballs at

14:45

Israel? Yeah, I was gonna ask

14:47

about that Like did the Iranians intend to have

14:50

what they were sending not reach the destination?

14:53

Yeah, and I think that's a possibility

14:55

Iran has not been trying to get

14:57

into an all-out war with Israel If

15:00

Israel sent 300 ballistic missiles toward

15:02

Iran significantly more

15:04

than zero of them would

15:08

with land so They're

15:10

not trying to get into a exact Whatever

15:14

you do to me. I'll try to do to you type of

15:17

Exchange So it's quite

15:19

possible that what they wanted to do was do

15:21

something serious do something that

15:23

showed that they meant business and that they

15:26

were escalating things to match the Escalation

15:29

they perceived from Israel, but

15:31

they didn't want it to get so bad that

15:33

it would mean that Iran

15:36

would be inundated by Israeli missiles

15:39

and it's hard not to read that as

15:42

Israel basically winning the exchange

15:44

and Not only

15:46

that but winning the exchange at a

15:48

time when it's had very few

15:51

wins It was

15:53

able to look at its technical technological

15:55

supremacy its capability of having a

15:59

solid area defense and say yes, checks out.

16:02

But also Israel was able to

16:04

test exactly what they can get out of

16:07

their allies, out of Jordan, out

16:09

of Saudi Arabia, out of the Emirates. And

16:11

yes, all of these countries seem to have been

16:14

quite helpful, exactly as the alliances

16:16

were supposed to function. So I

16:19

think the straightforward analysis of what happened

16:21

is that Israel kicked things

16:23

up a notch and then Iran

16:26

half-heartedly matched and

16:29

then backed down. Do you

16:31

think the Israeli government is

16:34

interested in standing down? The

16:37

Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who's

16:40

been embattled, much

16:43

hated by the Israeli left and center.

16:46

So far his response has been to

16:49

agree that the Iranian

16:51

aggression is bad, but not do

16:53

anything. But let's

16:56

not be coy about it. Netanyahu

16:58

and his allies in his

17:00

very right-wing government are

17:03

seriously considering whether this might be something

17:05

that despite the desires of the Iranians,

17:08

or maybe because of the desires of

17:10

the Iranians not to be attacked, that's

17:13

something that should be escalated to keep

17:15

what's happened from being

17:17

something that is unanswered. We'll

17:22

be right back after a break. Hey

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18:05

Hey everybody, it's Neil I. I've got some huge

18:07

news. Decoder is moving to Mondays and

18:09

Thursdays. We're adding a second episode of

18:12

the show. On Mondays, we'll have our

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classic interviews with CEOs and other troublemakers.

18:16

I think we're gonna have to start

18:18

having conversations about how do we pay

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those jobs that can't be done by

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AI. And on Thursdays, we'll

18:25

be explaining big topics in the news with Verge

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reporters, experts and other friends of the show. There's

18:30

a new generation of people on the internet. Google

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search has always sucked for them. So, you know,

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there's no reason for them to be loyal so

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they can just go to TikTok. This is

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gonna be really fun. I'm very excited about all

18:41

this. So go subscribe wherever you get your podcasts

18:43

now. You've

18:46

written about an interesting part of this Iranian

18:49

attack that I hadn't considered. The

18:52

fact that because the attack was so measured on

18:54

Iran's part or seems to have been, since it

18:56

was so clear that Iran didn't

18:59

want to widen the war, it

19:01

seems. It's

19:03

weakened Hamas's hand in

19:06

Gaza. And I'm curious if you

19:08

can dig into this with me because I

19:11

think it requires some explanation, but

19:14

I think it's really important. The Gaza complication

19:16

is not a simple matter, but

19:19

one of the hopes that Hamas seems

19:21

to have had, especially in

19:23

the early days of the aftermath of

19:25

October 7th, was that

19:28

its attack would rally its allies,

19:30

Hamas's allies, to this

19:32

flag, the let's fight Israel flag. They

19:35

basically come on in the waters warm.

19:37

Exactly, yeah. We have at great

19:40

cost to ourselves attacked Israel in

19:43

a shocking way and shown their weakness.

19:45

So if you, you other

19:47

countries that are, you other entities like Hezbollah,

19:49

that are much more powerful than we are,

19:52

if we're willing to do this, you should too. Now

19:55

that first of all hasn't happened. This

19:57

was as close as it has come to happen.

20:00

happening, that is a much,

20:02

much larger entity, much more powerful

20:04

entity, Iran, has demonstrated

20:07

that this is as much as it's willing to do. If

20:12

you're waiting for Iran to enter the fight,

20:14

well, you just saw one version of that

20:16

happen, and it didn't make a darn

20:18

bit of difference. So from that perspective,

20:22

Hamas has one fewer card to

20:24

play. You also raise the

20:26

point that what

20:28

happened over the weekend basically

20:31

shows that there are

20:35

Arab countries who are

20:37

willing to protect Israel, and

20:40

those Arab countries, they

20:42

want to see Gazans in

20:44

their homes, and they

20:46

don't really like Hamas. We're talking

20:48

about this coalition of people who protected

20:52

Israel from the bombs, Jordan, Saudi

20:54

Arabia, UAE. And I

20:56

think that's interesting too. It is. And

20:59

one of the possibilities for an

21:02

aftermath to the Gaza War has

21:04

always been maybe you can get Saudi

21:06

Arabia to pay for some kind of

21:09

reconstruction. Maybe you can get Emiratis to

21:11

go in and help create some system

21:13

of governance that succeeds the administration of

21:16

Hamas. There's been some talk

21:18

of maybe they can be persuaded or induced to

21:20

do that kind of thing. And

21:22

Netanyahu and his government have

21:25

effectively blocked all discussion of these

21:27

things. In fact, many

21:29

of Netanyahu's partners have said

21:33

Israel will be responsible, solely

21:35

responsible for the security of

21:37

Gaza in perpetuity. There

21:40

will be no armed force other than an

21:42

Israeli armed force in this space. And

21:45

that is a kind of almost

21:49

crazy maximalist position that is tantamount

21:51

to saying, we're going to occupy

21:53

this space forever and the war

21:55

will never end. So this

21:58

is unrealistic to say. the least. And

22:02

now we've got a moment when Israel

22:04

can look to the leadership of the countries that

22:06

have really helped it and saved it, and

22:09

look and see those countries and say, we owe

22:11

you a debt. And that

22:14

includes making your people happy, or

22:16

at least a little happier about

22:19

how we treat Gaza in the

22:21

end. That would assume the

22:23

Israeli government is operating in kind of normal

22:26

diplomatic world. Is

22:29

that where the Israeli government is operating right

22:31

now? No, that's

22:33

a fantasy of how the Israeli government

22:35

sees itself. The

22:37

leadership of Israel,

22:39

of course, is Benjamin Netanyahu,

22:42

whose government

22:45

depends 100% on the consent of parties that are

22:49

extremely ideological and are extremely

22:51

unsophisticated about the rest of

22:53

the world. And therefore, the decisions of his

22:55

government are often not

22:58

in what seems to me

23:01

to be the straightforward long-term interest of

23:03

the state of Israel. So

23:05

the idea that he would

23:07

creatively pivot from the inflexible

23:09

positions and fantasies

23:11

of how the Gaza war

23:13

would end, just

23:15

because there's a good reason to do so,

23:17

and a chance to do so right now

23:19

that didn't exist a week ago, that

23:23

seems like wishful thinking, unfortunately. So

23:25

that leaves us exactly where we

23:27

started with an inflexible

23:29

Israeli government meeting and even

23:31

more inflexible Hamas

23:35

insurgency, and the people

23:37

of Gaza are right there in the middle of

23:39

suffering until the end. That

23:42

sounds like whatever happens next. A

23:45

lot of it's in Israel's hands. Is

23:47

that fair? I

23:49

mean, Hamas gets a vote. And

23:51

I think it's important to realize

23:54

what level of stubbornness Israel

23:56

is dealing with in trying to come

23:59

up with... deals with Hamas,

24:02

deals for hostages, ceasefires. And

24:04

Hamas has simply said no

24:06

to ceasefires. It has rejected any possibility

24:09

of a ceasefire. It

24:12

has rejected the very notion

24:14

that taking civilian hostages is

24:17

anathema and has to stop. So

24:20

it's not an easy entity to

24:22

deal with. But it's true. Israel

24:25

is a more powerful entity. Israel

24:29

has responsibility that

24:33

it can't wash away merely

24:35

by pointing at

24:38

Hamas's irresponsibility.

24:40

You sound pessimistic

24:43

about where things are headed in Israel.

24:47

Is that accurate?

24:50

Yeah. So I'm not Israeli, but

24:53

I think I may have absorbed some

24:55

of the pessimism of Israelis I've spoken

24:57

to. So if I

24:59

sound pessimistic, it's

25:01

because a lot of Israelis

25:03

are pessimistic at complaining

25:06

about this government, watching

25:08

it blunder into humanitarian

25:11

catastrophe in Gaza. There's

25:15

still no straightforward pathway

25:18

toward a new

25:20

political reality in

25:23

Israel where there might

25:25

be someone else in charge, someone who's more

25:27

competent, someone who can

25:29

lead the country to whatever the next

25:32

step is. It's as

25:35

if the country's fate is just intertwined

25:37

with its least popular,

25:39

least competent prime minister. And

25:43

that's a really desperate situation

25:45

to be in. And I wouldn't

25:47

blame people for being upset that

25:49

it's being seemingly forced on

25:51

them by Israeli politics

25:53

and perpetuity. I'm

26:00

really grateful for your time and for your reporting. Thank

26:02

you for coming on the show. It's

26:05

been a pleasure. Thank you. Graham

26:08

Wood is a staff writer over at The

26:10

Atlantic. And

26:12

that's our show. If you're a fan of What Next,

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