A range of data in the past week shows the US labour market remains extremely strong. For example, the US gained 303 000 jobs in March, well above market expectations, while the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for 26 months. Given that wage growth is still relatively high at 4.1%, and the recent surge in oil prices could create further inflationary pressure, the US Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a “wait and see” approach towards interest rate cuts. The first US rate may only occur in about September and there could be two, not three, cuts this year.