US labour data for February showed more jobs were created than the market expected, but a broader range of data suggests that labour conditions are softening. The unemployment rate is rising, wage growth is slowing and the quit rate has fallen back to the pre-Covid average. At this stage, there is no sign of recession, but the trends may encourage a US rate cut in June.

SA’s Q4 2023 GDP growth of 0.1% was below market expectations, although the country is not in recession. Annual growth of 0.6% is less than the 1.6% annual population growth. There were some encouraging developments in the transport sector, especially airline travel to Cape Town, but consumer spending is declining. Infrastructural renewal is critical to help kickstart growth.