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1:19

BBC Sounds. Music radio

1:22

podcasts. Hello, I'm Adam Rutherford

1:24

and this is Start the Week from BBC Radio

1:26

4. I hope you enjoy the show. Size

1:29

isn't everything, at least when it comes

1:31

to countries. We have global superpowers, large

1:33

states, conglomerates like the G7 or the

1:35

G20, and supranational unions

1:38

such as the EU. But

1:40

most countries on Earth, roughly three-quarters of

1:42

them, are classified as small states. So

1:45

this morning we're focusing on the minnows

1:48

and exploring how some have managed not

1:50

just to survive, but punch well above

1:52

their weight. I'm joined by Armand Sarkissian,

1:54

who has experience of both the big,

1:56

being born in the Soviet Union, and

1:58

the small he went on to become. Prime

2:00

Minister and President of Armenia. He's

2:02

a great advocate for the potential

2:04

of the Small States Club. That's

2:06

the title of his new book.

2:08

His subtitle is How Small, Smart

2:10

States Can Save the World. And

2:13

to help us navigate through the

2:15

world of these compact countries and

2:17

across ever-changing international boundaries, we have

2:20

Margaret Macmillan, Emeritus Professor of International

2:22

History at Oxford and former re-lecturer,

2:25

and also a voice very familiar

2:27

to BBC Newtown's Lee's Doucette, the

2:29

BBC's chief international correspondent. So

2:31

let's start with a definition,

2:33

Armin. What do you

2:35

mean by the Small States

2:37

Club? Well,

2:40

before defining, first of all, thank you

2:42

very much, Adam, for inviting me to this morning

2:45

session. Before defining what

2:47

is the Small States Club, I think it's

2:49

very important to define what is Small States.

2:52

I think we can spend hours on it,

2:54

but it's less than maybe very practical. And

2:57

I think these are small states that have

2:59

population around, let's say, maximum 10 or 12

3:02

or 15 million for

3:04

me. And they are all over

3:06

the world. The

3:08

number of these states changes during

3:11

the history from, let's say, if

3:13

you go to Westphalian peacetime, there

3:15

were 400 or more of them.

3:17

Now we have 150, around 150.

3:20

They live in, what

3:23

is in common between these small

3:25

states worldwide is, I

3:28

think they are all surrounded by

3:30

natural or human difficulties,

3:32

problems, be that they're in the

3:35

middle of an ocean or surrounded

3:37

by not very friendly countries. And

3:41

the one word that is common for all of

3:43

them is survival. I

3:45

think they have to survive because

3:47

of many difficult factors. And

3:49

if you're a small state, how do you survive?

3:52

I think you have to be successful. And

3:54

how do you become successful if you are

3:57

a small state with not very

3:59

many resources, be that political,

4:01

military, or natural resources, I think

4:03

you have to be very

4:06

effective and efficient, which

4:08

I call to be a smart state. So

4:12

being a smart state is necessary. In

4:14

fact, when I was writing the book,

4:16

the first title was the Small Smart

4:18

States Club. And if you open the

4:21

book, you will find out that I

4:24

am telling a story of my story

4:26

of nine smart

4:28

states. Three of them are from Europe.

4:31

It's Estonia, Switzerland, and

4:33

Ireland. You can

4:35

pick up more in Europe. There are many

4:37

of them. And there are

4:40

another four from Middle East,

4:42

which is Qatar, Israel,

4:46

United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. One

4:48

in the far east, which is Singapore, one

4:50

in Africa, which is Botswana. And

4:53

of course, at the end, I write a little bit

4:55

about Armenia. About Armenia as well. Looking at those, I

4:57

suppose, what's striking initially is

4:59

that there are similarities geographically. You've pointed

5:01

out some are European, some are Middle

5:03

Eastern. But

5:06

it's not obvious that the

5:08

UAE can be compared to Botswana, for

5:10

example, or Ireland can be compared to

5:12

Qatar. What are the

5:15

fundamental threads of similarities that run through

5:17

the eight that you go to in

5:19

the book? In fact,

5:21

that's all the book

5:23

is about. Not to find what

5:25

are the similarities of the environment where

5:28

they exist or they

5:30

try to survival to be successful,

5:32

or what are the ingredients of

5:34

success. This is what

5:36

I'm trying to explore by telling the stories of

5:38

these nine states. And I

5:41

think the obvious first one that comes is, who

5:43

are you? What's your identity?

5:45

Be that your national identity and be

5:47

also what sort of natural

5:50

resources you have, where are your

5:52

neighbors and so on and so forth. So

5:54

identity matters. Let me ask Margaret this as

5:56

a historian, because your focus has been a

5:58

lot about. boundary changes in

6:01

the last two centuries or deeper history

6:03

but also conflict. So in

6:06

looking at small states in this way,

6:08

do we see how dynamic history

6:10

and geography is because these boundaries

6:13

have changed so significantly? Yes,

6:15

I think we forget how often they've changed

6:17

and how much they've changed. And as our

6:19

men mentioned, the number of small states has

6:21

decreased certainly in Europe from what it used

6:23

to be in the 17th century and Napoleon

6:26

decreased it again. I think

6:29

what he's saying about

6:31

small states, their boundaries often

6:33

are fixed by people outside and they survive

6:35

because there is some sort of international agreement

6:37

that their boundaries won't be changed.

6:40

And so I think part of what makes

6:42

a small state successful is good luck and

6:44

having the right sort of international support. And

6:47

so for example, Switzerland and Belgium are

6:50

guaranteed as neutral powers by

6:52

other powers in the world. And I

6:55

think, you know, it's a combination

6:57

of managing carefully your

6:59

own resources, your own having a

7:01

purpose, but also having the good fortune to

7:04

be in a place where people aren't going to try and take

7:06

you over. And of course, Armenia doesn't have that good fortune. Well,

7:09

I mean, you can't ignore the fact that of many

7:11

of the countries mentioned in the book and many of

7:14

the small states in the world, the empire plays a

7:17

really significant role. And of the four of us, we've

7:19

got, in this foursome, two

7:21

Canadians and Armenian, I'm the only

7:24

Brit sitting here. So what

7:26

has been the effect of

7:29

the decline and fall, particularly the British empire in

7:31

setting up these small states? Well,

7:33

what the decline and fall of empires, and I think the

7:36

same thing we're seeing happening now with Russia, which is one

7:38

of the last big European empire,

7:40

is that it is leaving a lot of people's

7:43

not sure where they belong and

7:45

seeing an opportunity to establish their own states.

7:47

At the end of the First World War,

7:49

Austria-Hungary fell to pieces, as did

7:51

Russia, in fact. And so suddenly, smaller

7:53

people saw an opportunity to establish their

7:55

own states. But they didn't

7:58

succeed if they didn't. get

8:00

some sort of international support and if they weren't

8:02

able to protect themselves. And so

8:04

wanting your own state is

8:06

only part of the story and clearly identity

8:08

is very important. Well, Armin, your story,

8:11

and you start with your personal story

8:13

because it's very specific to that narrative.

8:15

You were born in Armenia whilst it

8:17

is part of the USSR and

8:20

during the course of your both scientific and political

8:22

career it becomes a small state on

8:24

its own. Can you just take us through what that

8:26

transition was like for you? Well,

8:29

it's I would say a fascinating

8:31

life. I really enjoyed,

8:33

it looked like that. I lived on a

8:36

different planet which was called Soviet Union and

8:38

of course I agree with

8:40

Mark I think your story

8:42

or your history matters because when

8:44

there is a collapse of a

8:46

big empire what happens. Every

8:51

big empire is a sort of

8:53

a putting pressure on

8:55

the national identity or identity of

8:57

a smaller ones. Back in Soviet

8:59

Union I think the sort

9:02

of a Soviet nationalism that was

9:04

created those days had one name

9:06

internationalism. Basically we are international there

9:09

is no nationalism. In reality that

9:11

was a good story for the

9:13

small countries or countries in Africa

9:15

or Latin America but in reality

9:18

inside Soviet Union I think the

9:20

international and internationalism meant that

9:22

there is dominance of

9:25

Russian culture which is fine because

9:27

I was very happy learning a

9:29

lot about Russian

9:31

culture, about music, about art, but

9:34

the history books were more about the Russian.

9:36

So it's natural when the big

9:38

empire collapses then

9:40

you have the rise of identity.

9:43

Sometimes it becomes nationalist, sometimes it

9:45

becomes just a strong identity,

9:47

sometimes it becomes a nation

9:50

with huge power of

9:52

patriotism. But it's absolutely

9:54

clear that I agree with Mark that you have to

9:57

have some luck. But some of the things that I

9:59

think are very important Sometimes you are the creator

10:01

of your luck. I think when

10:03

I was thinking about small

10:05

states, I was

10:07

inspired by an Armenian story

10:09

around a thousand years ago,

10:12

before and after the collapse of

10:14

Jerusalem or when Jerusalem was taken

10:16

over by Salah al-Din and the

10:19

collapse of the Armenian Kingdom of

10:22

Bagratuni. A new Armenian state was

10:25

created on the Mediterranean, which is

10:27

south of Anatolia called Cilicia, an

10:29

Armenian Kingdom. And Cilicia, an

10:31

Armenian Kingdom survived 300 years. Around

10:34

2 million people, small state trading, even

10:37

sometimes competing with Venice, surrounded

10:40

during 300 years, up to 20 different states. I

10:46

mean, states were changing, and

10:48

from Seljuks, Mongols, Ottomans,

10:51

Byzantium, Empire, Greeks,

10:54

everybody. But it was

10:56

run stable from inside by a royal

10:58

family, which was ruling for 300 years.

11:02

And they managed to be

11:04

smart, in a sense that

11:06

they were creating their own luck, by

11:09

getting into alliances, sometimes

11:11

with Damascus against the Byzantine

11:13

Empire, sometimes with the Byzantine

11:16

Empire with others. So luck is

11:18

important, but you can create your luck.

11:20

I want to talk a bit in

11:23

a minute about what constitutes smartness in

11:26

the creation of small states and the

11:28

success of small states. But both you

11:30

and Margaret have mentioned a word several

11:32

times already, which is identity. And

11:34

there's a nice little vignette at the beginning

11:36

of the book when you, as a

11:38

scientist in Cambridge, were

11:41

asked a question by Margaret

11:43

Thatcher about whether you felt

11:45

more Armenian or more Russian. And your answer

11:47

is quite, well, it's

11:49

interesting and quite political in how balanced it

11:51

was. What did you say? Well,

11:54

basically, I was asked not a question.

11:56

I was Armenian or Russian. I was

11:58

asked, am I Armenian? Soviet

12:01

was the new identity what Soviet Union

12:03

was trying to create to bring all

12:05

of these nations together. But

12:08

of course, when someone like

12:11

Margaret Thatcher was speaking about Armenian

12:13

history and some

12:16

of their own friends,

12:18

including Mr. Gulbenk, and they knew,

12:20

and after that saying that I

12:22

am Soviet. Although, every any Soviet

12:24

citizen traveling abroad was given a

12:26

small book which was called

12:30

100 Questions and 100 Answers. Basically,

12:32

they were the most common questions that

12:34

foreigners were asking Soviet citizens and they

12:37

were completely

12:39

defined answers what should answer.

12:43

One of the questions in that book was,

12:46

are you Ukrainian or

12:48

Georgian or you are Soviet? The answer should

12:50

be Soviet. So this

12:52

was one of my first diplomatic

12:54

challenges in order to say

12:56

that I am Armenian, but

12:58

I am very happy that I got

13:01

fantastic education in back in Soviet Union

13:03

which was true. And grateful

13:05

you said. I'm grateful

13:07

for this. Very diplomatic answer and

13:09

in a period where you were not a

13:11

politician but a physicist at that time. Please,

13:13

I want to bring you in and ask you that

13:16

as a reporter, as a correspondent,

13:19

I guess one of the big questions for the small

13:21

states is how you actually get noticed. You've reported a

13:23

lot in the Middle East. But

13:25

the media tends to focus on the

13:27

superpowers and the big stage players. Is

13:31

it important to get noticed? Yes, very

13:33

important to get noticed. I often use the

13:35

expression these days that in

13:38

our time, especially a time of social

13:40

media, it's

13:42

not just important to do something, it's

13:45

to be seen to do something and

13:47

hence so many statements, so many conferences,

13:49

so many loud

13:52

voices across social media. But

13:56

may I begin? I wanted to start by saying that

13:58

I was very moved by your... Again,

16:00

I mean the question is, is it important to get

16:02

noticed outside of the context of a conflict

16:06

or a war or some sort of natural

16:08

disaster? Well,

16:11

sometimes states don't want to be noticed. I mean,

16:13

we were discussing about Botswana. I

16:15

mean, a lot of African countries sadly

16:17

are in the headlines because of wars,

16:19

because of corruption, because of military coups.

16:22

Botswana doesn't get into the headlines unless it's trying

16:24

to mediate or Prince Harry's going

16:26

there on some

16:28

kind of a project. They don't want

16:31

to, because often when you're in the news, you're

16:33

there for bad reasons. Their

16:36

leadership and defining their identity is trying

16:39

to be there for a good reason. And

16:41

if you take, for example, Qatar, Qatar

16:43

is in the headlines now because it's

16:45

playing the role that it has been preparing for

16:47

decades. You write about it in your book. It

16:50

has become a mediating power. And all those, let

16:53

us say to use the words

16:55

of the unsavory characters, the Muslim

16:57

Brotherhood, the Taliban, Hamas, the

17:00

kind of characters that it heads,

17:02

that its neighbors, like Saudi Arabian

17:04

UAE said, what are you doing?

17:06

Why are you bringing these political

17:09

actors, these leading figures

17:11

of political Islam to your country and

17:13

Qatar hedging its bets saying, we want to

17:15

talk to all sides. And now it is

17:17

using this to great advantage. But

17:20

when it's not in the headlines, it's talking quietly

17:22

to Washington, to Moscow, to China.

17:25

And sometimes it doesn't have to be, to contradict

17:29

what I said earlier. And sometimes you don't want to be

17:31

seen to be doing something. You

17:33

are in behind the scenes,

17:35

threading through creating alliances, working

17:38

on alliances, because

17:41

you can pick up the phone and

17:43

the president at the other end answers

17:45

it. That kind of power. Quiet power

17:48

and loud power. And you exercise them

17:50

at different moments, at different

17:52

crises, different times. Amen. Is

17:54

that one of the qualities of a

17:56

smart small state, that soft and

17:59

cultural power? The

18:01

soft and cultural power, yes, and when you

18:03

are soft and not loud,

18:06

I think that's the time to

18:08

be a member of the S20. So

18:11

tell us what the S20 is. People will be

18:13

familiar with the G20 and the G7 or the H8. Before

18:17

going there, I think if we try

18:19

to identify which is important, what are

18:21

the ingredients of being small and smart?

18:24

And obviously it's your identity. In

18:26

some cases, with some states, it's

18:28

a God-given identity, basically. In the

18:30

case of Armenians, we have very

18:32

clear identity. It's a

18:35

small nation, small state, but

18:37

a global nation, a special

18:39

language that all the Armenians talk,

18:41

special alphabet. We are Christian,

18:44

but we are Armenian Apostolic Church, which is

18:46

different. We are friendly with all of the

18:48

churches. Great food. Thank

18:50

you very much. And

18:54

then I think the same is Georgia, the

18:56

same is Israel or Jewish culture, the same

18:58

is Irish culture. But there are cases when

19:00

the small, smart states had

19:04

the identity was created, was not

19:06

God-given. And in that case, you

19:08

need definitely a leadership, a strong

19:10

leadership, a visionary leadership, like in

19:13

the case of Singapore, I

19:15

think, or in the case of

19:17

even Switzerland. I think you need

19:19

the goodwill of your neighbors, but

19:21

you have to have the visionary

19:23

leadership in order to create from

19:25

three different cultures, which is French,

19:27

German, and Italian, a new identity,

19:31

which is Swiss identity. The same is in

19:33

Singapore. In fact, you have Chinese,

19:35

Hindu, and Malay, the three

19:37

different religions coming together with

19:39

a very strong identity, which is Singaporean

19:42

one. Then, of course, if you have

19:44

to speak to your people, then your

19:47

visionary leadership becomes a

19:49

mission for the nation. I think if you

19:52

work with small nations, a lot of them,

19:54

people do, do support their

19:56

leadership. They're a part of that mission.

19:59

And of course, the last thing. There are many others

20:01

but... Can I ask you though, because you've just come

20:03

back from Singapore. Isn't it a

20:05

danger in that if your survival

20:07

and your greatness, smartness,

20:10

is dependent on a great leader, sadly great leaders

20:12

are mortal and they die. So Lee Kuan Yew

20:14

died, known for his

20:17

strict, smart, visionary leadership, pragmatic.

20:20

And I'm not an expert on Singapore,

20:22

but what I read is that, you

20:25

know, now he has sons and grandsons. One

20:27

of the sons and one of the grandsons

20:29

would say they're living in exile. That's disputed

20:32

in Singapore. But unless

20:34

it carries through generations, or

20:36

unless perhaps you have absolute monarchies like in the Gulf,

20:39

where the family ties, the tribal ties

20:41

keep it together, father passes on

20:43

to son, you

20:46

run into trouble. Singapore is still

20:48

inspired by the leadership of Lee

20:50

Kuan Yew. It's their defining identity.

20:54

Is it praying a little bit? Splintering a little bit? Well,

20:57

I think that's it. Especially at the

20:59

time of social media, technology. I

21:01

think it's the talent and greatness of

21:03

the leaders that are not just the

21:06

ones bringing these different parts

21:08

together and creating a new identity,

21:10

a new state, but creating long-living

21:13

legacy. And

21:15

it's not necessarily through just

21:18

basically passing on the leadership from

21:20

one individual to your son

21:23

or the grandson, in many cases. In

21:25

the case of Singapore, when you meet

21:27

politicians there, you can feel the inspiration

21:29

and belief in this mission which is

21:32

called Singapore. And... Well,

21:36

Margaret, I want to ask you a question which comes off the

21:39

back of that, which is this

21:41

sort of complex dynamic between identity

21:43

and leadership and nationalism. And nationalism

21:46

is something that can be very positive, but

21:50

quite easily slips into things that

21:52

we need to be cautious of. I don't

21:55

see nationalism usually as being positive. I mean,

21:57

patriotism is one thing where you're proud of

21:59

your country. country, you say, all supported, I think it's

22:01

not so bad. Nationalism tends

22:03

to be about saying we are the nation

22:05

and anyone outside isn't. Nationalism to

22:07

me has always been about drawing lines. And

22:09

the whole question of identity is so tricky. I mean, I'm

22:12

looking at the states you talked about and you're

22:14

very interesting about them all.

22:16

Many of them are authoritarian. Many of them have

22:18

hereditary rulers. And

22:20

they often have very large minorities

22:23

who are not full members. If

22:25

you think of the number of people who live

22:27

and work in the Gulf who are never going

22:29

to be citizens, I mean, I think it's something

22:32

like 90% in the United Arab Emirates of the

22:34

people who live there are never going to be

22:36

citizens of the United Arab Emirates. And I think

22:38

that's a problem. And when you

22:40

talked about Israel, which perhaps you might say

22:42

something different about it today because things have

22:44

been changing so rapidly, there

22:46

is a problem which you didn't really mention

22:49

and that is the existence of the Palestinians.

22:52

Where do they fit into what is a Jewish state?

22:54

And so, you know, often I think in

22:56

small states, they succeed because they have

22:58

a strong identity of the

23:01

ruling group. They

23:03

often have strong leaders. But those can

23:05

be fragile and they can change. And

23:08

there have been, I mean, there have been cases

23:10

in the United Arab Emirates of rulers having to

23:12

be deposed because they simply weren't very good. I

23:14

mean, you know, there are questions we can think

23:16

about. And so it's always dynamic.

23:18

I mean, I don't think you can say this

23:20

is the recipe for a successful small, smart

23:22

state. I think it will always change. And again,

23:25

there's a question we both mentioned

23:27

before of luck. You know, sometimes

23:29

they get the right rulers. I mean, Singapore

23:31

was a backwater. It was, you know, really

23:34

nothing much. And most people, they weren't particularly

23:36

well off. And Lee Kuan Yew made a

23:38

huge difference. But those

23:40

sort of people don't come along all that often.

23:42

And I think the small, smart states which are

23:44

more likely to survive are the ones which managed

23:47

to put roots down into the population at large,

23:49

managed perhaps to build an identity as Switzerland

23:52

has done and Singapore has done, which is

23:54

not based on a particular ethnicity or a

23:56

particular religion, because the danger always there is

23:58

you will have an unhappy minority which feels

24:01

excluded. I wonder if Botswana is an example that

24:03

runs counters that which is one of your small

24:05

states in the Burgh army. Can you just tell

24:07

us about the house of Botswana? I think I

24:09

would like to continue what Margaret is saying,

24:13

taking our discussions which was

24:15

focused really just the last

24:17

several minutes on Singapore, let's

24:20

say Israel or the Gulf

24:22

states to Europe. There

24:24

are so many smart states in Europe

24:27

and they are absolutely successful and they

24:29

are engaging the whole population

24:32

of Europe. I think we are speaking about

24:34

states like Estonia, Denmark,

24:37

Norway, Finland, Sweden,

24:40

Ireland, Switzerland, you

24:42

name it. And they are not

24:44

only smart, they are using new technology.

24:48

They are in basically these are states

24:50

that are in the front line of

24:53

new development. If I would like

24:55

a physicist try to describe

24:58

the world, the existing world, not

25:00

the physical world which is three dimensional

25:02

space and one dimension which is

25:04

time but let's say our political

25:07

or a geopolitical

25:10

world, again in three or four

25:13

dimensions, of course this is a

25:16

simplification of the story. The one dimension

25:18

will be military. And

25:20

in that dimension, there

25:22

is one state that has

25:25

a single pole which is United States

25:27

that have the military power that can

25:30

be deployed anywhere in the world. Of

25:32

course the other nations are getting closer

25:34

starting from Japan, Europe and others getting

25:36

closer. The

25:39

second dimension will be economy. And in

25:41

the case of economy we already see

25:43

this is a bipolar. We

25:45

will have the third pole which

25:47

will include definitely countries like

25:50

India, again Japan and many other

25:52

countries, Brazil and so on. There

25:54

is a third dimension which I will

25:56

call it the dimension of future or

25:59

advancement. tomorrow. And this is the

26:01

dimension where we are speaking about

26:03

new technology, how it's used to

26:06

govern, how it's used to make

26:08

you smart. And if

26:10

you take that dimension, absolute leaders

26:13

in this dimension are small, smart

26:15

states. Is

26:20

there a problem as well is that all small, smart

26:22

states aren't always smart,

26:24

but because they

26:31

are run by humans, that

26:33

they do make mistakes? I mean, look

26:35

at the United Arab Emirates. Your story

26:38

about how seven independent shaketoms came together

26:40

because of the family's decisions and how

26:42

the leaders managed to work

26:44

together, not without problems, as Margaret has hinted.

26:47

But they've made some bad

26:50

financial decisions, they've recouped. But

26:52

now they are making not so

26:55

smart decisions in

26:57

foreign policy. And you use

26:59

this duality, which I thought

27:02

was interesting, between interests and

27:05

ideals. UAE has

27:07

a lot of ideals. It's got a

27:09

minister of happiness and well-being, a minister

27:11

of tolerance. It has the Abrahamic family

27:13

house. It's aspiring to

27:15

greatness on so many values.

27:19

But the decisions it's making to pursue

27:21

its interest in Sudan, in Libya,

27:23

in Yemen, it's finding

27:25

itself backing characters

27:28

who are being leaders, who are being accused of

27:30

genocide, who are being accused of violating

27:32

international sanctions. So you're smiling. So

27:35

some are saying, UAE, why are they

27:37

making these decisions? They would say they would dispute

27:39

this, of course. But many are

27:41

asking, that's not very smart. And you're actually

27:44

going against international norms. Well, the thing is

27:46

that we are human. Yes. I

27:48

think that's the general answer to that. But

27:50

to answer and to enlarge what you have

27:53

mentioned and to combine what I was

27:55

trying to say, for example, if you take electronic

27:58

governance, the first ten

28:01

states are from Estonia

28:03

up to Singapore, all European states. If

28:06

you take the innovation,

28:09

again the top innovating countries

28:11

are countries like Sweden, Switzerland,

28:13

then it comes United

28:15

States, then it comes UK, then again it

28:18

comes the small smart states. And

28:20

so on, even if you take

28:22

good governance as an index, this

28:24

is not my data, this is

28:26

played by international community, by Bloomberg

28:28

and others. The five top countries

28:31

of which have good governance are

28:33

small smart states. And if

28:35

you take the same United Arab

28:37

Emirates, the description that you gave, but

28:39

this is also a country that

28:42

has a ministry

28:44

or a national space agency, which is

28:46

run by a very talented young lady,

28:48

got her education in the United States

28:51

and have a mission to Mars. And

28:54

there is only one University

28:57

of Artificial Intelligence in the world and

28:59

that's based in Abu

29:01

Dhabi, in Mazdar city, and

29:04

it's called Mohammed bin Zayed,

29:06

University of Artificial Alice. It's

29:09

how you're literally reaching for the stars,

29:11

but as Margaret has already mentioned about

29:13

no political dissent, it comes at a

29:15

cost in other ways. And I'm also

29:17

wondering, and you have a very

29:19

attractive view of the future that we're not, that technology

29:22

is going to be much more important than the

29:24

military force. But I don't think

29:27

we're there yet. And if you look what's happening in

29:29

Ukraine, we're seeing, and you look what's happening in the

29:31

conflict that seems to be spreading in the Middle East,

29:33

the military force still matters. And

29:35

I think a lot of these small start states, I'm going back again

29:38

to what I was saying about luck, depend

29:40

on their existence, partly in some

29:42

cases because they're prepared to defend

29:44

themselves. I mean, Switzerland has always

29:47

made it clear that if anyone tries to invade, they are

29:49

ready for it. Every Swiss citizen

29:51

has to do military service. Finland pays

29:53

a great deal for its military defense

29:55

and again has conscription. So

29:57

they are prepared to defend themselves. In

30:00

some cases, and I think it's true of the Gulf

30:02

States and it's true of Qatar, that they exist because their

30:04

neighbors find them useful. They're useful

30:06

places to keep your money. They're useful places,

30:08

as we know, to get away from your

30:10

own governments in many cases. A lot of

30:13

very shady characters end up in places like

30:15

Dubai. They're also useful because

30:17

they can be intermediaries. Qatar is extremely

30:19

useful as a conduit between Iran and

30:22

some of the Western powers, including the

30:24

United States. In the

30:26

long run, can they exist without either

30:29

that sort of tolerance and sufferance? Because

30:31

I think military power still matters. Small

30:34

states are always, I don't need to tell you coming

30:36

from Armenia, are always going to be vulnerable, at

30:39

least so far, so that you can have all the technology in

30:41

the world. You can have the most wonderful universities, but in

30:43

the end, you may be living

30:45

on borrowed time. Yes, because your

30:47

book was written before the Gaza War and before

30:49

the Ukraine War. And it's interesting, you're the last lines

30:51

of your chapter

30:54

on Estonia, saying you're hoping that society

30:56

and elites have the pragmatism

30:58

to choose the solutions to keep Estonia

31:00

thriving. I mean, that's not exactly your

31:03

words. But now Estonia is looking to

31:05

the great power, the biggest military alliance,

31:07

the oldest one in the world, to

31:09

NATO because of what's happened with the

31:11

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And

31:14

similarly, in Israel, you talk about Bichahon,

31:16

this absolute sense of security, which was

31:18

shattered on October

31:20

the 7th. And now Israel

31:23

is in a very different place right now. I

31:26

think to answer the question, basically,

31:28

you raised two questions about, first of all,

31:30

the ability of a small, smart state to

31:33

resist, to be resilient. That's very,

31:35

very important. I think I agree

31:37

with you 100%. If you

31:40

are not ready to protect

31:42

and to fight for your values,

31:44

for your identity, for the

31:47

mission that I was saying, that is

31:49

very important if you are a small,

31:51

smart state, that the vision, the leadership,

31:53

your identity becomes also mission for you.

31:55

And mission means that you have to

31:57

be ready to protect, to fight for

31:59

it. And we have seen in

32:01

many cases, the moment you fight, you

32:04

are the winner, the moment... And it doesn't

32:06

matter on the ground, do you win or

32:08

not, but if you fight, you are the

32:10

winner. And in many cases, that

32:12

strengthens your identity. Let's

32:15

look at the case, because I think

32:17

there's some discussion about the Gulf,

32:20

for example. I think in the

32:22

case, there was confrontation between, a

32:24

couple of years ago, between Qatar

32:26

and United Arab Emirates and

32:29

several other Arab states. And

32:31

there should have been made a

32:33

choice between, for example, either

32:35

you resist, or

32:41

you just maneuver and

32:44

agree with some of the pressure that you are

32:47

on. In the case of Qatar, although there was

32:49

a change of leadership

32:51

from father to son, that's the title

32:54

of my chapter there, father

32:56

and son. The

32:59

new emir, the young emir, which nobody

33:02

believed that will have the experience or

33:04

the wiseness of the father to run

33:06

it, basically, he

33:09

chose to resist and to fight for the future.

33:13

And I think crazy things were happening. Food

33:15

was transported to Qatar. Luckily

33:18

for Qatar, they have the financial means to

33:20

do all of that stuff. But

33:23

the fact that this was happening made

33:25

the identity of Qatar much more stronger.

33:28

Qataris today are more Qataris

33:31

than another Arab kingdom. All

33:34

those who have citizenship, but what about the huge numbers who

33:36

don't? I mean, I do think that's a great vulnerability of

33:38

the Gulf states. They have a great

33:40

many people living there who have no particular,

33:42

I mean, they're better work, quite understandably. They

33:45

have no particular loyalty and they're not treated as full citizens. And

33:48

again, in the case of Qatar, it resisted in

33:50

a nonviolent way. It

33:52

couldn't, I think, have resisted in any sort of violent

33:55

way because it simply doesn't have the capacity. Margaret, I

33:57

want to ask you a question about that and about

33:59

small cities. states that have

34:01

potentially powerful and aggressive neighbours.

34:04

We haven't mentioned the United Nations yet

34:07

and the League of Nations before that. These are

34:10

bodies that were set up really, I mean,

34:12

in some ways to protect exactly those

34:14

actions. They were meant to provide collective security and

34:16

in the case of the United Nations it says very

34:18

explicitly, get rid of war in its

34:22

charter. I haven't got the right words. But

34:24

again, these sorts of organisations are only as

34:26

good as their strongest members. And

34:28

when you have members, as you did of

34:30

the League of Nations, who defy international norms

34:33

or simply leave, as Japan did when it was

34:35

called out over invading Manchuria in 1931, Hitler pulled

34:38

Germany out of the League of Nations. So they can't

34:41

be any stronger than their membership. And

34:43

I think we see the same problem in the United Nations today,

34:46

that the great powers are not prepared

34:48

to work together. In fact, they're working against

34:50

each other. Lee, we're just at the end

34:52

of COP 28, which is

34:55

a UN initiative, and

34:57

there are some global problems such as climate

34:59

change and migration as a result of both

35:03

political, economic and climate changing

35:06

patterns. Some

35:08

small states have really benefited

35:10

from these discussions at things

35:12

like COP 28 for all

35:15

its short-fallings. Places like Tuvalu or

35:17

other countries that are going to

35:19

be significantly affected by climate change,

35:22

that surely is the protection given by

35:24

being a member of a bigger club.

35:27

Yes, it's interesting. And this is where,

35:29

you know, your premise has some strengths.

35:32

The small island states, for example, came

35:34

together to say, look, you know, we

35:37

are so vulnerable. We are literally sinking

35:39

in the water. Countries like

35:41

Barbados, where they're always impressed when leaders

35:44

rise from small states that nobody notices. Like the

35:46

Prime Minister of Barbados. Yes, like the Prime Minister of Barbados,

35:48

who's become... I was at the UN General

35:52

Assembly and she was walking, you know, everyone walks

35:54

across the street there in the midst of great

35:56

security. Everyone was going to order to speak to

35:59

her. nice, all the journalists,

36:01

right? I'm always impressed by people with

36:03

sheer force of personality can rise above

36:05

the fray. And to use your expression,

36:07

Adam, because we are in a be

36:11

noticed, look at me kind of, of

36:14

time, that the that

36:16

they do have to club together because

36:18

they are literally, it's an existential threat

36:20

for them. But what has happened

36:23

at COP is so interesting, because now the world, we're

36:25

constantly redrawing the map of the world. And I was

36:27

just looking at an article this morning or saying

36:29

that now we're talking not

36:31

just North South, but the global south, this

36:34

has become the way of talking about the

36:36

other countries in the world, so much pushback

36:38

against the kind of the politics behind the

36:40

UN Security Council, the great powers of the

36:42

world, which were supposed to protect all the

36:44

other small states. And in fact, they were

36:46

so gridlocked that they find themselves as as

36:49

ineffective. So the world is struggling, including the

36:51

many small smart states, trying

36:53

to find a different way to govern the

36:55

world, you know, in this

36:57

balance between interests and ideals. But

37:00

COP is something quite different because it

37:02

is so life and death,

37:04

they really feel this is a real

37:06

threat, and an urgent threat, and the

37:09

great frustration that the grand here great

37:11

power is those who have oil and

37:13

gas. Let's see whether the you

37:15

know, UAE has come under a lot of criticism, not

37:18

just for hosting it, but for the head of their

37:20

state oil company for being the chairperson. Everyone

37:22

is saying now, today, the story is will

37:24

they actually say yes, we must

37:27

ease out of fossil fuels. So there's an

37:29

interesting conundrum now, because there is security and

37:32

being the member of a bigger

37:34

club, and you're proposing the s the s 20. And we're

37:36

talking about the g seven or the

37:38

g 20 or the United Nations. But

37:40

at the same time, there is the potential

37:42

within those clubs for the biggest voices to

37:45

completely dominate the conversation and steer it towards

37:47

their own. But not just the voices,

37:49

they'll just keep doing it. I mean, that's, this

37:51

is the ultimate hypocrisy is that people make so

37:53

many statements over the Paris agreements. Nobody has kept

37:56

their promises. I mean, the other thing is,

37:58

I think I mean, we're now in I think

38:00

moving into a more anarchic international order and

38:02

what we may well get is what we've

38:05

had before is small states looking for protection.

38:08

Bandwagening is, as the political scientists call it. Is that what

38:10

the S20 is? Well,

38:13

there are several types of protection. The one

38:15

protection is that you have to make a

38:17

decision. Are you with the West

38:19

or with the East? Do you? I don't know.

38:22

You have? Not everybody has. That's one way

38:24

of protecting yourself. Some very,

38:26

very friendly to one international organization,

38:29

be that NATO or the collective

38:32

security organization. That's

38:35

one possibility. The other possibility for

38:37

small nations will be what I was loving,

38:40

to create their own organization, to

38:42

be pushing their

38:45

own voices of the S20.

38:48

There are more than 20 successful

38:50

smart states in the world. They

38:53

are different. And

38:55

of course, in one book, there

38:57

is no way I could have

38:59

gone into the details of the

39:01

future about internal affairs or every

39:03

and each state. The whole

39:06

idea was to basically look that

39:08

they exist. They are

39:10

important. They are focusing

39:13

many of them into the future because

39:15

I do agree today's wars are about

39:17

tanks and so on and so forth.

39:20

But more and more, the future

39:22

battles will be run

39:24

by drones and artificial

39:26

intelligence. And in

39:29

the third dimension that

39:31

I was mentioning, the

39:34

basically competition will not be

39:36

like between Soviet Union and

39:38

the United States. In

39:40

their confrontation on nuclear

39:43

deterrence, this will be a world

39:47

where the most important

39:49

tool will be the artificial

39:51

intelligence. And artificial intelligence

39:53

is not something that only

39:55

the United States and China will

39:58

develop that because smart

40:00

people are born, geniuses are

40:02

born like Steve Jobs are not only

40:04

in the United States, they will be

40:06

born in small smart states, and you

40:08

don't need that sort of a huge

40:10

industrial base in order to become a

40:12

superpower in the virtual world. But you

40:14

need wealth though, and that sort of

40:16

techno-optimism comes from states that

40:19

have enough natural resources or

40:21

enough money in order to develop. How

40:23

much money Steve Jobs had when he

40:25

started his company, I'm sorry. I think

40:27

in many ways even the existing big

40:30

multinational companies like Google, Apple and

40:32

others, they are behaving as small

40:34

smart states of their own. They

40:36

are quite independent, they have huge

40:38

impact on world order. What

40:41

I was trying also to do a

40:43

sort of a small introduction on the

40:45

level of small smart states on

40:48

the changes that are happening worldwide.

40:50

These changes are happening, the one

40:53

change that we're facing and a

40:55

huge danger is the climate change on

40:57

the planet. But is that the only

40:59

one? A lot of people are

41:02

afraid of the future of artificial intelligence, I

41:04

am not. Because I'm a

41:06

mathematician and I know the

41:08

difference between, for example, artificial

41:10

intelligence, mathematical software in real

41:13

life, but I'm very very

41:15

concerned, you are a biologist

41:17

and specialist, I'm very concerned

41:19

about our resistance to antibiotics,

41:21

I'm very concerned with that

41:23

the health, well-being

41:26

and life are under danger

41:28

because as you know, even

41:31

the vaccines that were found

41:33

to fight COVID-19, we were lucky

41:35

because of mRNA was there and

41:38

we couldn't find the solution. So

41:40

we're facing not only climate challenge,

41:42

we're facing life challenge. Nobody can

41:45

give me a guarantee that tomorrow

41:47

the antibiotics will not be effective,

41:50

I think will not have a

41:53

huge disaster worldwide. And this is

41:55

another dimension that we as

41:57

a world have to come

42:01

together in order to

42:04

allocate resources in biology,

42:06

biologic life sciences. Well,

42:08

Margaret, very briefly,

42:10

because we're almost out of time, how do

42:12

you feel about that coming together in a

42:14

world which feels increasingly fractured? I

42:17

would like to see it happen, but I don't

42:19

have much confidence it will. I think we are

42:21

more fractured, I think there's more competition, and I

42:23

think great powers still matter. Okay, well, listen, we

42:25

are out of time, there's much more to be

42:28

discussed, and of course next week, start of the

42:30

week, is all about artificial intelligence, because that's the

42:32

subject of the Reece lectures right

42:34

now. So thank you to

42:36

all of my guests, Margaret Macmillan, Emeritus

42:39

Professor of International History at Oxford, Lise

42:41

Doucette, the BBC's Chief International Correspondent, you

42:43

can hear her on the Correspondents' Look

42:45

Ahead on BBC Radio 4 and

42:47

Sound, 8 o'clock on the 29th of December,

42:49

and Armen Sarkissian, whose book, The Small States

42:52

Club, is published on the 21st of December.

42:55

Many thanks to today's studio engineer, Sue

42:57

Mayo. Next week, Tom is

42:59

talking about AI, but for now, thank

43:01

you and goodbye. Thank

43:03

you for listening to this edition of Start

43:06

the Week, produced by Katie Hickman, and if

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