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The game right. now

1:00

This is star talk meal,

1:02

the grasse tyson hear your personal astrophysicists,

1:05

I got my coat check nice Jack a

1:07

meal. Right right,

1:10

you know, it's time we do yet another installment

1:12

with on some very interesting installments

1:14

on Coded: Yeah, it's progress

1:17

and riots how reactions to

1:19

exactly like the fact that you know it doesn't

1:21

exist. We.

1:24

Didn't we did this is all about how it was hoax

1:27

and anonymous innocence I didn't sell,

1:30

about how vaccines kill people

1:32

have none of the one that with the?

1:35

With the make the the, the monk

1:37

would say it's pull out of their methods of

1:39

yeah, well, my three other microbes it's, oh,

1:41

love the five Z show. That we did

1:44

se. speak

1:48

could be first time listeners just time don't

1:50

have messed with her and said do that so

1:53

i found in the in the academics

1:57

Then you know this that I think of

1:59

it as. You. Know, the computers have a cloud

2:01

of surrendering his academic cloud,

2:04

who were in that cloud, you even

2:06

I you reach a it's only an academic as got expertise

2:08

I was in. Full amount of the clouds eat,

2:11

you know, talk to Forbid has to come back and because

2:14

I, think about it's you know auditory

2:16

often described as it makes you sound.

2:18

Like you're to, scientists

2:22

and no,. no it's not

2:25

the spirit hundred it's worth gets

2:27

worse a psych their descending from heaven or side

2:29

exactly so we got mixed

2:32

christakis nick welcome to start talk

2:34

says and i found you has

2:36

business somebody elses badass than isis

2:38

town want him on my podcast is

2:40

got all selfless about it so are

2:43

your professor of at yale and

2:45

your for trains sociologists was also

2:48

extensive medical Background

2:50

and what a perfect combination pedigree

2:54

to talk about. Over ninety.

2:57

societal reactions to it

2:59

this is exactly the stuff you

3:01

think about and care about and do

3:04

am your recent book was just released

3:06

and paperbacks apollo's

3:08

Arrow.

3:09

And humid a subtitle on that again or the profound

3:12

an enduring impact of Corona virus on the way

3:14

we live near as it so now

3:16

that's good because,

3:18

he got it right. there you go

3:21

Right away he wrote this before of

3:23

law before we were aware we are right

3:26

now so we, are say

3:28

that this was gonna last for three weeks he

3:30

was right now. is

3:33

it's these of his nose mouth and

3:35

out of i did a great beers second

3:38

outs so nicholas just

3:40

want to say that my father was sociologist know

3:42

very respect For

3:44

all those who work in their field and

3:46

I think of their under heralded and

3:48

what role they can play do play

3:50

should play and with insights

3:52

they have that the rest of us don't,

3:55

so I'm delighted to have you on start off

3:57

such so the police are in your book

3:59

of. How's era of in the in the preface

4:01

you describe? The fact that.

4:04

This pandemic and the social

4:06

reaction to it is playing

4:08

out as you'd expect.

4:11

So what does that mean, what did you know

4:13

that the rest of us didn't? And.

4:17

Does that mean we just the same as

4:19

every previous pandemics that we read

4:21

about in the history books for did to be do a little

4:23

better now we didn't do any? Better on

4:25

for so you would think that is the twenty first

4:27

century we would have done better ah,

4:30

I think the to benchmarks you can use

4:32

a one benchmark is. A respiratory

4:35

pandemics, are we have records

4:37

of those going back about three hundred years

4:39

and very detailed records going back a hundred years

4:42

or more generally plagues which

4:44

have been? afflicting human beings for thousands of.

4:46

years and arm and will

4:48

supply by and plague of not just plague general term

4:51

We're. A really bad epidemic, what does it have specific

4:54

referencing to, like, what does your scan

4:57

or your or other parts of or other words

4:59

well played, I would say, is the. broader category

5:01

to arrested for pandemics, other non respiratory

5:03

plagues right there arts, as you said,

5:06

afflictions of the skin or afflictions of the gastrointestinal

5:09

tract, for example, or neurologic

5:11

place at. Polio, for example, ah,

5:13

are hiv, you know, is a plague or,

5:15

but it doesn't are primarily manifests

5:18

itself in Russia, Tory. The other

5:20

than pneumocystis, pneumonia in respiratory conditions

5:22

and one thing they all have in common. That

5:25

they are judgments from God knows.

5:28

that i'm so sorry disclosed

5:30

sorry some would believe in fact it's fact pussy

5:32

here's the interesting thing that

5:35

are you guys we're highlighting which is that is that this

5:37

way we've come to live in our

5:39

in twenty one and twenty one

5:42

now going to twenty two seem so

5:44

alien and unnatural Actually,

5:46

it's neither of those things plagues

5:48

are part of the human experience: us

5:51

plagues, our plates are in the Bible or

5:53

there in Homer's iliad, one of the canonical

5:55

works of western fiction begins

5:58

with played there and six. There

6:00

and survived tastes so place

6:02

or not new to the human condition they're.

6:05

just new to us We.

6:07

Think this is crazy that we have to live

6:09

in this way and that we're facing this thread,

6:12

but this threat is an ancient threats

6:14

that our ancestors confronted in

6:16

fact. They were so alarmed

6:18

and disturbed our ancestors were by with

6:20

their experience that they reduce this

6:23

experience into our religious traditions into

6:25

our literary tradition states they tried

6:27

to warn us. Our ancestors tried to warn us as

6:30

it's there's this thing that happens, it's plague,

6:32

it's awful. And. Let's

6:34

tell you about it and, and we

6:37

somehow didn't listen to them, we didn't we

6:39

didn't hear it and many of my Jewish friends,

6:41

for example, enough in the spring. Of

6:43

twenty or during passover,

6:45

you know, they were like all my life I'd set passover

6:48

seder and now suddenly, you know, I was

6:50

a really understood what my ancestors.

6:52

We're talking about when they talked about played,

6:55

so this is very, you

6:57

know, that we have written records of plagues going

6:59

back thousands of years, many

7:01

of the. Things that we are experiencing, I would

7:03

say almost all of them frankly.

7:06

Are familiar?

7:08

Then. Cities in a plague of Athens over except

7:10

for the five G's it's effects except for

7:12

the file me as the says yes but for

7:15

a, lot of I've read some. Things about bluebonnet

7:17

where they were like, "hey, just five

7:19

zero, well, no almost guys have

7:22

almost literally almost okay, so it's that

7:24

through the plague of Justinian sixteen hundred years

7:26

ago" I some pretty sure was place

7:28

of the city was one of the early where would

7:30

you have places with you said

7:32

plays memorize these, should

7:34

you do guess you? Just played fluids

7:36

yes best best", said

7:39

a beautiful at the same time the christakis

7:41

as christakis flag catalogued in his, head

7:45

of. their money plays

7:48

yes but nobody likes the analogy

7:50

so one of the things is so in my lab we study

7:53

we study on

7:54

Social network will sort of the me oblivion else that yes,

7:57

so you have your director we opted

7:59

safely.

8:00

Director. Of it's human nature lab at the Yale

8:02

Institute for Network Science,

8:04

so this is, this is where the

8:07

rubber hits the road so gone so right, well, we

8:09

study that. "Making architecture

8:11

of human social networks, the

8:13

evolutionary origin of networks, why do

8:15

we have friends, weiss why are human

8:17

networks have a particular topology particular

8:19

structure, how did natural selection

8:21

say? That structure was it mean for our lives

8:24

and how are we quit to

8:26

interact and so on, so we some all of these things and

8:29

then we study spreading? Prophecies on what

8:31

are called these graphs, these architectures of

8:33

ties, so we study, for example, how germs

8:36

spread our house idea spreader, how

8:38

ah how our money spreads

8:40

or how emotion. Spread and tall dissing

8:42

spread within networks and what we're talking about

8:45

now this is sort of very abstract, but what we're talking

8:47

about right now is the spread,

8:49

not only of. The germ, the that

8:51

corona virus in our case, but also

8:53

you highlighted this five G, you know conspiracy

8:56

theories, the misinformation,

8:58

how it spreads and one of the things you need. To understand

9:00

about plagues going back thousands of years

9:03

is that as the germs spread

9:05

through the social network right behind it is

9:07

lies. And it worked, this

9:09

has been observed for thousands of years during

9:11

the play, the Justinian I think.

9:14

I think it was John of emphasis was a historian

9:16

and priest at the time and was documentary what

9:18

was happening, so he has is very kind

9:20

of almost funny passes where he says,

9:22

"You know the played was devastating the

9:24

city" And. A rumor was

9:26

out such that the housewives

9:29

in the city or concluded that is

9:31

you through Terra Scotta pops out

9:33

the second story window of your house onto the

9:35

street. Below and it's shattered ah

9:38

this would have ward off the played

9:40

as so John of emphasis right see ghosts

9:42

it became more dangerous to walk through

9:44

the city for fear of. Being hit by

9:47

pass them for I've been from

9:49

contrasting the plays itself so.

9:52

so these types of superstition

9:55

We saw them, you know, those from the White

9:57

House in the last administration, you know that if

9:59

you would just. This. Sub would bleed, source

10:01

or irradiate yourself or charlatans

10:03

of all kinds appeared out of the woodwork, saying

10:06

takes silver it's or do this

10:08

or do that are all kinds of. Rumors, as you

10:10

said, deal about five g and

10:12

on and on about vaccination about masking

10:14

endless and lies, so the actual

10:16

thing is just a detail.

10:18

That's the idea is that

10:21

a misinformation.

10:23

Follow the social networking pattern

10:26

no matter what that misinformation is absolutely

10:28

no leads except for the bleakness

10:30

a student as nights words were

10:33

always very, upset

10:36

about. of know i'm sorry

10:38

go besides the to general principles neil

10:40

and out one general principle is that is that you

10:42

might almost say that the emergence

10:44

of mendacity is seats

10:46

are of plagues

10:48

That. L was even to call something upload you might

10:50

want to go so far as to say, "It's not only do

10:52

we need a spreading and serious pathogens,

10:55

not only do" We need rising taste counts

10:57

with by the way as cynic one on of an epidemic,

11:00

But we also need lies, you just

11:02

one principal. The second principle is that you can model

11:04

the spreading Dynamics, the ways

11:07

in which this information spreads on graph.

11:09

Similarly that you

11:11

model the spread of germs that the second overarching

11:13

principle but the details are

11:16

of course different. Right? Like what is

11:18

the constant? What is the rumor is? It's

11:20

5G is that is

11:22

it that the what is piece of his misinformation.

11:24

Of course, varies from play

11:26

to play. I

11:30

I just want to what

11:32

you just said. Is any

11:35

of that. Can

11:36

you, can you measure

11:39

and quantify? Who

11:41

does that purposely? Because I'm sure there

11:43

are opportunities know that and take

11:45

advantage of it. You're welcome demagogues

11:48

rides at the same thoughts. Exactly. Right? In fact,

11:50

you often serious,

11:53

pandemics lead to great shift

11:55

in the political landscape or

11:57

are prompted by prior ships

11:59

in the

12:00

Landscape for example, of there Wars or conflict

12:02

between Spades off and you see play

12:04

sarai's then. And after play, you

12:06

can see people, desperate

12:08

and others, rise to power, exploiting

12:10

the suffering of people. But one of

12:12

the things also very interesting in this Barros on some metaphors

12:15

from physics. You can think of a

12:17

social network, which

12:20

many listeners may have in the were just Clear? When

12:25

you say that despot would exploit

12:27

the

12:28

underclass. or a list

12:30

of what I think, what you mean they're cracking

12:32

if I'm wrong is that if

12:35

you've been. If

12:37

you are you going badly affected

12:40

by the play, whatever previous

12:42

system of governance. The

12:44

not prevent. So it allows

12:47

someone else to rise up and claim

12:49

that they're going to be the one to fix it for you,

12:51

just in there some ideas, okay, that's how you taking

12:53

advantage of this", he said, "Yes is avenues

12:56

of would mean it's sometimes it's "explicit"

12:58

like some. Some some desperate.

13:01

The dominant deliberately exploit this

13:03

are others, it's not so explicit, is just

13:05

a change in social order, so, for example, after

13:07

the bubonic plague in the fourteenth century

13:09

and Europe, and by the way, the bubonic plague. The

13:12

black death so called it was your, the black,

13:14

their so called houses in arm thirteen

13:16

fourteen. There were ways

13:18

of it every few decades

13:20

for five hundred years in Europe, and it's it

13:23

decimated the European population, are

13:25

they are many people who have argued correctly in my

13:28

view that kind of?

13:30

That. Were let's say about

13:32

thirty percent of Europeans died in some

13:35

cities, fifty percent, or eighty or ninety

13:37

percent of the mit residents of a city died, lead

13:39

to great prices. So it was very clear

13:42

the politicians couldn't stop it, so

13:44

those guys were useless, the priest

13:46

couldn't stop it, so religion was useless,

13:49

the doctors and scientists didn't know what

13:51

was. Going on so they were useless, so

13:53

many people have argued that it gave rise, it

13:55

paved the way for the emergence of new democratic

13:57

institutions politically, it's new forms

13:59

of them. And new types of science,

14:01

or and the reformation

14:04

that it paved the way for different attitude towards

14:06

religion, so all of those things

14:08

are. Are things that can happen,

14:10

but? If. I might wanted to go back to

14:12

what was gonna say on the spreading

14:14

processes which was a different aspect of

14:16

what such as which is that social,

14:19

networks. He is many people are familiar

14:22

with these images of network with dots and lines

14:24

drawn on two dimensional page. ah

14:28

What were you know this complexity with this sort of not

14:30

in the middle and is kind of feathering towards the edges,

14:32

but actually networks are hyper

14:34

dimensional surface? And

14:37

you can think of things spreading is

14:39

that surface of resembled germ is spreading

14:41

so you can think of ways of germs enough

14:43

surface and. waves

14:46

of information in that surface and

14:48

you can actually borrow mathematics from physics

14:50

to look at wave interference and so

14:52

the question is norwich wave

14:55

like how do they reinforce each other so wave

14:57

of misinformation you see can reinforce

14:59

can wave of the spread of the germ

15:02

Or vice versa wave of the spread of

15:04

germs can activate people to seek

15:06

out accurate information and

15:08

you can borrow certain.

15:11

kind of mathematics involving differential

15:13

equations and other ideas to

15:15

model these are wave interference

15:18

pattern and you can athlete and my

15:20

lab does this kind of work you can actually

15:22

get actually deeper understanding of

15:25

How these things interact and the

15:27

circumstances under which? Ways

15:29

of ways of correct information can

15:31

retard the spread of the job. The

15:33

ways of misinformation can accelerate

15:35

the spread of the germ services, hey, I'm

15:37

in way the canucks if to waves or

15:39

resident.

15:41

Fixing. rallies Mastiff, then

15:43

they basically double the mask,

15:45

but they can come out of phase with each other

15:48

and then camps yes and so you're applying

15:50

this to social networks. This is, this is, this

15:52

is great, so I'm going to sink abruptly of interference

15:55

of social net yes. Yeah

15:57

yeah. So

16:00

we got to take a break from where we come back Nicholas

16:03

I'm. tired of hearing you tell me What

16:06

the problem is I'm gonna make the solution is

16:08

okay that's why have you on this okay well Celsius

16:10

have suffered through, this it,

16:13

to see what starts authoritarians

16:16

know you are professor knows christakis

16:19

talking about the social. networks and

16:22

of

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18:02

Hi, I'm Chris Killen from Howard New

18:04

Jersey and I support Star Talk on

18:06

Patriot. The Enjoy this

18:08

episode of Star Talk Radio

18:10

with Your and My Favorite

18:12

Personal Astrophysicist Neil

18:15

DeGrasse grasse Tyson.

18:22

I've got Nicholas Christakis to

18:24

use a professor at Yale who

18:26

thinks about and studies social networks

18:29

even before the thing is social networks.

18:32

Was common term because

18:34

they're been social networks even before the Internet

18:36

sources that are not and scoffs

18:39

when you got six out of inside their videos.

18:43

You got some deep understanding

18:45

of what's going on, how and was

18:48

so we left off

18:50

at Nichola's with you describing.

18:52

A hyper dimensional coordinate

18:54

system where where, information,?

18:58

true or false moose In

19:00

this coordinate system and occasionally interferes

19:03

with other movement of information, what I

19:05

want to know is. What good

19:07

are you?

19:08

Who? Have this analysis if you can't

19:10

in the next breath say here's what you do

19:12

as well, we do a lot

19:15

of experiments in my lab to try to exploit

19:17

A. Deep understanding of human social interactions

19:20

and of the mathematics and dynamics of human

19:22

social networks, to try to invent

19:24

things to make the world better. now i've

19:27

as i might i'll just a grass and discuss couple

19:29

of experiments and then Some.

19:32

Potential implications with respect to the current A virus

19:34

pandemic, so, for example, one

19:37

of the things we do is as we use of software

19:39

we've developed map networks in developing.

19:41

World villages, for example in India, in

19:43

Uganda and in Honduras, where

19:45

we have a big, project funded by number

19:47

of funders, including the Gates Foundation

19:50

and enormous foundation we mapped.

19:52

"The networks of people they're using the software

19:54

we ask people who are your friends and that we ask

19:56

everyone else where their friends we mapped these networks

19:59

know we use A. Mess. Local algorithms to identify

20:02

who in the individual who in his village

20:04

that say is structurally influential. Not.

20:07

By virtue of who they are, how rich

20:09

or poor, tall or short, for example, they are

20:11

but rather by virtue of where they are located

20:14

within the network, for example, if.

20:16

You were bioterrorist and I ask you who

20:18

in New York City would you want to infect

20:20

to get the biggest epidemics of fast as

20:22

possible, you might imagine

20:24

that someone? Very popular, very well connected

20:27

in the city, would be the person you would in

20:29

fact rather than someone who has no friends,

20:31

for example, and to stays alone in their apart. So

20:34

it? So. Yeah, but we could use

20:36

more sophisticated methods and that, and then you can

20:38

identify people within these villages

20:40

and then you can give them an educational intervention,

20:43

for example, about breastfeeding. Or vaccinating

20:45

their children are about proper latrine usage

20:48

of his public health things that my lab does or

20:50

does, and then what we do is do we do

20:52

these large scale. Experiments were we randomly

20:55

assign out of hundreds of villages

20:57

different villages. Then. Different

20:59

targeting algorithms and then

21:01

we test which algorithm to see the

21:03

biggest informational cascade

21:05

can we create artificial tipping

21:08

points by thoughtfully targeting

21:10

a small subset of people said

21:12

if we. Persuade them to change their behavior every

21:14

one copy some.

21:16

That's. One class of environmental years

21:18

on that's good at A.T. makes complete sense

21:20

in retrospect, of course, does youngest

21:23

is when I know was new well, the Fox

21:25

News of the. "Us and that it as

21:27

a different, I know, but that's a different type of that's

21:29

different kind of broadcast power in other words,

21:32

when of things about networks you have. To understand is that?

21:35

Is. That Neil has the same

21:38

network power that you and I have

21:40

sought a with when he likes the books

21:42

he can tell his friends whether they like

21:44

book or and. And we'll have some influence

21:46

on them just the way I do, but in addition,

21:49

he has a kind of brunei couple of Arrow, for

21:51

example, but we'll also got

21:53

free. For example by just for meal,

21:56

also as broadcast power and

21:59

that blog Print. And you and me

22:01

in that is or rain

22:03

from the heavens in other words, it's kind

22:06

of have different process is sort

22:08

of. Outside the network's system, but

22:10

okay, so that's one class of experiment,

22:12

different class of experiments, his arms,

22:15

these online experiments we do with we've

22:17

done with tens of thousands of. People were

22:19

we create temporary artificial

22:22

societies, have real people we bring in,

22:24

would say four thousand people and we put them into two

22:27

hundred groups and we experimentally

22:29

manipulate for. example the structure of the groups

22:31

or the income inequality of the groups

22:34

or who is given what piece of information"

22:37

Then. Was told the truth in who is lied to,

22:39

for instance, and then we let

22:41

the people interact in that system and

22:44

then experimentally test different interventions

22:46

that might, for example. Enhance the

22:48

cooperation of the system or decrease

22:51

the racism, for example, how people

22:53

treat each other or how we might optimize

22:55

the flow of accurate information in the system so.

22:57

We'd all of these experiments, so

23:00

it's this class of work that we do that,

23:02

said some light on some

23:04

interventions we might deploy with respect

23:06

to Corona virus, but it is. In fact,

23:09

okay, so I can say in the West to have

23:12

years you fail to see asked

23:14

to set a fire most yes I've

23:16

I have been unable to get.

23:19

, is your yes, yes

23:22

yes,. yes i mean yes

23:25

you know it is it is a difficult

23:27

The problem in our enormous

23:30

society with our media landscape.

23:33

Who, ah? The try

23:36

to tackle the problem of the spread of misinformation,

23:38

a huge problem and. In

23:41

some ways, it also reflects some of. Peeling.

23:44

qualities you know, we have free and open press,

23:46

we have freedom of speech and our society

23:49

I wouldn't want to live in a society in which

23:51

some age and. Like the government for some

23:54

other agent specified who

23:56

could say what or what was the

23:58

truth of the downside of that? We have to

24:00

tolerate. And willfully

24:02

counteract. The spread

24:04

of lies and we haven't had unfortunately

24:07

tremendous. The tremendous spread

24:09

of lies and if I might just gone a little degression,

24:12

more sociological degression this virus

24:14

in my judgment happened to strike

24:16

us are particularly vulnerable moment.

24:19

"In our life as society as society,

24:21

we have century high

24:23

levels of economic inequality"

24:26

We have a half century high levels of political

24:28

polarization. We. Have

24:31

our kind of scientific illiteracy

24:33

that I know you and others are trying to counteract

24:35

that is exactly why mean very

24:38

large fractions of Americans believe

24:40

in us that. The Earth's was created ten

24:42

thousand years ago for example or

24:44

us don't understand basic statistics

24:47

even basic ideas ah

24:49

we have as well a kind of I'm

24:52

kind. of suspicion of scientists like

24:54

because there's because very ascended anti elitism

24:57

in our society right now because of this political

24:59

and economic polarization scientists

25:01

are seen as just another elite another group

25:03

of people seeking to exploit us for their

25:05

own venal interests which is

25:07

wrong of course of course scientists are human they have

25:09

their own interest but that's not in my

25:11

judgment the correct way to see scientists and finally

25:14

we have loss of capacity for nuance

25:16

in our society right now everything is black

25:18

or white or you're with me or you're against

25:20

me there's kind of tribalism and

25:22

tribalism kind of lot of capacity

25:25

to see will things are complicated are lot

25:27

of these topics that like climate change or

25:29

pandemics or odds are

25:31

nuclear power all of these things

25:33

that you talk about our

25:34

Typical topics that require a

25:37

serious conversation, and you know what? The

25:39

virus struck us right now. When?

25:41

We are unable to work together

25:44

to develop basis of facts and

25:46

then to fight or ideological battles

25:48

apart from the facts and then once we fight

25:50

that battle reach A. Consensus as

25:52

nice on how to combat the pathogen, so

25:55

we've been we've died with died

25:57

in great numbers deal and so. The

25:59

A.

26:00

It. In great numbers rising

26:02

through five million worldwide worldwide, but in

26:04

the United States we will lose a million

26:06

Americans, two million would have died if

26:08

we done nothing I believe, but. A million

26:10

of our fellow citizens, I think at least we'll

26:12

have died before this pandemic is over. Partly

26:15

for my lack of ability to

26:17

have a sound scientifically

26:20

based. Politically organized

26:22

response.

26:23

It funny why would why we're talking and

26:25

because sacrosanct yes it's

26:28

like inserts when it's a mess of,

26:30

British version of added I said? trump's

26:36

Hey, man.

26:38

Right now for sale of assess

26:42

as a father just thirty,

26:45

third of your who do not want us to

26:47

his listen his love

26:49

and you do this to kneel as

26:51

so out i can't do with

26:53

Then I swear I'm trying because

26:56

my exposure because of meals

26:59

causes people. Do you

27:01

know ask me stuff and I'm like zone as good

27:03

as it is? missing statistics

27:06

up but of what i like about

27:08

you guys and many science

27:11

That everything the doctor,

27:13

christakis just said. And

27:15

I've seen as from you to meal. There.

27:19

When you're a comedian? That

27:22

person is just stupid.

27:24

That's the way you look at your.

27:26

a dumb ass and that's all there is

27:28

to it Right? You guys look

27:30

at people like Know that's not the

27:32

way to look at us, what we have to do

27:34

is figure out how to get through the that

27:36

purses, what we. Have to do is figure out

27:39

how to we inspired that person as

27:41

you know I admire that and hate

27:43

it at the same will also sort.

27:46

of i mean the other thing is it's a

27:48

fact that

27:50

You know, our fates are tied to

27:52

our fellow citizens.

27:54

And so we have a selfish interest in trying

27:57

to get our fellow citizens to behave

27:59

better.

28:00

But even if we didn't have a selfish,

28:02

it is selfish interests, we should have an altruistic

28:04

interests, I mean these people who have some

28:06

of these beliefs and, like five G, for example.

28:09

Then. deserve "Our care

28:11

and our help and our embassy, the our

28:13

fellow citizens I have no interest

28:16

in like right now, there's a kind of us,

28:18

ah, narrative that's rising

28:20

like if. You're not vaccinated, you deserve to die,

28:22

I don't think that's true, don't the

28:24

civil rights really rough, don't think that's true for him

28:27

for several reasons don't think. Us to for some, don't

28:29

think that's too because don't want any human being to lose

28:31

or like needlessly and are and second

28:33

some of those people have been taken.

28:36

In. Hi'a a set of false

28:38

beliefs. And have been diluted

28:41

in way. You and

28:43

your duped and I feel sorry

28:45

for them mean anyway. so is

28:47

this is a think i'm

28:49

very ashamed of how we've done as country

28:52

in terms of combating the plague and we opened this

28:54

conversation by talking about how places in ancient

28:56

threats but the thing that's little different

28:59

about us right now candidly

29:01

We're. The richest nation the world has ever

29:03

seen, we have two hundred

29:06

years of efforts to invent vaccines,

29:08

countless scientists, doctors and

29:10

patients have labored to produce

29:12

this knowledge we have a.

29:15

Scientific experts we have by Rollins's

29:17

immunologist epidemiologists,

29:19

medical historians who could have told

29:21

you.

29:22

About respiratory pandemics flying back a hundred

29:25

years in fact, one of the reasons I knew this was

29:27

going to be so serious as. That knew the

29:29

history of respiratory diseases because other

29:31

scholars had put them into books and

29:33

you could see you can.

29:34

Right? By February twenty twenties,

29:37

I knew what was going to happen, you ask me earlier,

29:39

how did know what, because read books, you

29:41

know, whether other scientists that a spend? Their lives

29:43

studying the stuff so why do we

29:45

have bit Nicholas if you read books

29:47

are you missing out as really good video is,

29:52

this as assists capacity? this

29:55

capacity as actually they're great video games

29:57

about up epidemics to

29:59

turns out

30:01

What is you guys know this capacity to?

30:04

The scientific method which

30:06

is one of the triumphs of human ingenuity

30:09

or, what it and this capacity

30:11

to collect information and transmit

30:14

it which by the way we spend billions

30:16

of dollars every year on in our society in

30:18

our time of need When we

30:20

were been beset by a deadly pathogen,

30:23

you wouldn't succeed, we could say,

30:26

ah, we can now take

30:28

advantage of this and save our lives

30:31

and yes, significant fraction of people.

30:34

A significant well didn't do it or else it one

30:36

more thing. I think

30:38

the intermediate live follow the of this passage.

30:42

And times deadlier than the flu.

30:44

That it's not as deadly: a smallpox or

30:46

bubonic plague or cholera.

30:48

Which can kill thirty or fifty percent of

30:51

the people they, in fact.

30:52

This intermediate with salary harmed

30:55

us I think if this plague have been let's say much

30:57

deadlier and there are corona viruses

30:59

which killed ten or even thirty percent of the people

31:01

they in fact I. think we would

31:03

have taken it much more seriously so this

31:07

virus was really sneaky you know it hit

31:09

us right and this and capacity

31:11

of the virus

31:13

The viruses is other property which is really interesting

31:15

if it is as what is called protean manifestations

31:18

of other words of a virus causes.

31:21

great variety of clinical

31:23

presentations it can affect your lungs serves

31:25

your gastrointestinal tract your can

31:27

make you fatigued and agree

31:30

The variety of severity so let

31:32

me give you a thought experiment. Imagine

31:35

you had a thousand people population,

31:37

A has a thousand people. Kind

31:40

of them are infected with virus and become seriously

31:42

ill. And one of them dies. The

31:45

ten percent case fatality rate. Now

31:48

imagine population be. The

31:50

thousand people. Kind of them get

31:52

infected and become seriously ill

31:54

and one of them size just like before, but in

31:56

addition, ninety people get

31:58

mild version of the.

32:00

Iris'so so one hundred total people infected

32:02

in population be. The one out

32:04

of one hundred dies one percent fatality rate.

32:06

So if you ask people, which of

32:08

these two worlds would you rather be in a

32:10

world in which ten percent of the people get

32:12

infected die or world in which one

32:14

percent of the people to get infected dice, many

32:17

people would wrongly.

32:19

Shoes world be where one percent

32:21

of the infected people die, but that is a delusion.

32:24

If. You stop and think about it world be

32:26

is the worse world to be in because

32:29

the same number of people get seriously ill, the

32:31

same number of people died, but it. It

32:33

isn't ninety get mild illness

32:35

there's more disutility and world be

32:37

will be as worse world and.

32:39

this virus because it is where we are

32:41

not only that isn't that true had been more

32:44

deadly

32:46

Van and we've sort of Sept

32:48

to attention sooner. We.

32:51

A a more deadly virus probably

32:54

would have ended up with fewer deaths it couldn't

32:56

hold it could have been if we set to tend to that's absolutely

32:58

correct we did model that out but.

33:00

it's not just did lasalle idiots is protean

33:02

manifestations because what happened to us

33:04

is that many people to see well i have

33:06

lots of friends who just had a mild case so

33:09

i'm not going to pay attention so it seems

33:11

wrongly so it seems

33:13

less serious because you have

33:16

these people who rid of yes or who

33:18

fell who have mild course exactly

33:20

grab exactly mouth with so really what we need

33:23

There's a virus.

33:25

That. Is quite the months for both

33:27

in it's not just lithgow, the if

33:29

people recover it's like they went

33:31

to some has like Ebola where

33:33

you see people bleeding from every single?

33:35

Or fists and then they die,

33:38

and then you're like Ah man, all with

33:40

no parts of the as whatever then the virus

33:42

is less likely to try minute

33:44

if you're. So effective.

33:46

That's dangerous to this, this is nikos

33:48

a point right if you, if you have

33:50

a. If the virus can

33:52

fool. Ninety percent

33:54

of the population. Interpreting

33:57

is nothing really serious while

33:59

it spills. They're about it is spreading,

34:01

is virus is his armor why

34:03

you and observers.

34:05

Like that, as you that the night clubs

34:08

that sells every woman thought different

34:10

services go, how would a different woman

34:12

every nice could be?

34:14

I'm not sure I would make that a salary of exact analyses

34:17

year struggle don't force of her sister

34:19

it's it's, but before we as

34:22

segment, Nicholas could be just so tell me.

34:24

What? The impact?

34:29

Right, everybody being forced to stay

34:31

home had on civilization.

34:35

Now, as in my community of Astrophysics,

34:37

surely yourself as well. You

34:39

know, isn't really not a?

34:42

Hey. Not if we didn't

34:44

lose a be having to work at home. This

34:46

where the good internet connection I'm fine

34:49

but school children. The

34:52

other workplace challenges that would that have

34:54

assembly lines he can't do that from

34:56

homes, what was the net?

34:59

Some of this, I like to think of pandemics

35:01

as having three phases, respiratory pandemics

35:03

or the immediate phase. And

35:05

we are approaching the end of that right now so we're

35:08

not at the beginning of the end of the pandemic, but

35:10

we are approaching the end of the beginning. The

35:12

immediate phase goes up until on

35:14

twenty two.

35:16

The Winston Churchill have been yes, but

35:18

a different same social class.

35:20

The about it improves about a different things are

35:22

not actually Ah A.

35:25

surplus of but us but what

35:27

is it but so what is so we're gonna reach

35:29

united states is get where we're going to get fresh that out

35:31

suppose after d day

35:33

And looked like the allies are encroaching

35:36

on the axis forces. And

35:38

reporter asks Western Church or is,

35:41

this the beginning of the end And

35:43

he says no, but is the end of the be

35:45

and.

35:45

Yeah, success of a set of the to exactly

35:47

and so, if I remember for ya soda, just

35:49

as was exactly that language, was a big

35:52

deal but.

35:53

That was you need to understand is, is that right now

35:55

we are we are we are being hit

35:57

with this? biological and epidemiological.

36:00

Ways. Of the virus that spreading

36:02

through this immunological, he naive human population

36:05

and the viruses going to spread and spread and spread and spread

36:07

among us in our country and. of and frankly

36:09

it has to in a whole world until

36:11

we reach this important threshold known immunity, herd

36:13

immunity basically unless you're on hermit

36:15

on the mountains are very lucky everyone

36:18

on the planet will either be infected with his

36:20

virus or get vaccinated or both so

36:22

that's gonna happen we're going across threshold soon

36:25

in this country and then we're finally going to put

36:27

the epidemiological in biological impact

36:29

of the virus behind us it is does not

36:31

mean the virus has gone viral still kill

36:33

people it's not eradicated but at greatly

36:35

reduced numbers it'll fall into the

36:37

background welter of things that kill us

36:40

Then. We will enter the intermediate

36:42

phase of the virus, ah, it's

36:44

like a tsunami has washed ashore

36:47

and devastated the countryside, the waters

36:49

finally recede which is great,

36:51

but now we have. To clean up the mess and is that

36:53

message you were alluding to win as to

36:55

cope with clinical, social, economic

36:57

and psychological aftershocks of

36:59

all of his death in isolation? And so

37:01

on all of this disruptions, millions

37:04

of kids miss school, millions

37:06

of people will be grieving the loss of loved

37:08

one or millions of people lost their jobs

37:10

millions. Of businesses closed were borrowing

37:13

trillions of dollars against the future two

37:15

and cope with prison would have to pay those deaths

37:18

and that's gonna take couple years I. Think

37:20

until twenty four, where we're going to have

37:22

this kind of sputtering emergence from

37:24

the shock, and then I think beginning

37:26

and twenty four, it's going to be A. Little bit of a party

37:29

similar to the roaring twenties of the twentieth centuries

37:31

after the last major respiratory

37:34

pandemic, the nineteen eighteen or

37:36

influenza pandemic of hundred years ago

37:38

well. There you go her terrific twenty

37:41

four people if,

37:43

it's apogee, flappers and everything

37:46

I think it's as easy as nice for nice think

37:48

this think it's not. The Bobby exactly

37:50

those things but it's gonna. be it's

37:53

gonna be people are going to be like a release like any

37:55

human population that survives human war

37:57

or an earthquake or hurricane or plane

38:00

The survivors are going to be relieved and I think

38:02

there's and have been cooped up all.

38:04

they're going to been socially isolated socially think

38:06

there there's gonna be gonna kind of a celebration

38:08

kind of return an exuberant

38:11

Over. Correction: A kind of return to normalcy, I think

38:14

people will relentlessly seek out social interactions

38:16

and night clubs and restaurants and sporting events

38:19

and political rallies going back a sequel to. See lot

38:21

of political from and AH and people

38:23

will be spending their money, you know we've been saving

38:25

our money during this pandemic as people

38:27

have for all past plagues. So,

38:30

so yes, I think it's gonna be quite

38:32

a. Quite a shift

38:34

in our society, honestly, or we have taken

38:36

another break, but when we come back, yeah, want to further

38:39

prob.

38:40

The emergence from this

38:42

port of right, of the news

38:44

portal that's on the horizon and

38:47

what the future society will look twice

38:49

and movie carry this memory are we going to have to

38:51

turn it into mythologies and legends to

38:53

carry it for the next. for

38:56

a great grandchildren so didn't go

38:58

through what we went through or does it off at

39:00

this at the same all over again when we come

39:02

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your logic.

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of the bar i'm thinking

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The people vote, them out of

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it you had to for you live in L A what

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is the for five twelve fricking lanes

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not including off ramps and on ramps. how

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much real a sandwich womb is just

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roads and cars and pollution

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in august so infrastructure

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that will not be necessary in the far

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from has been same way today we don't have forestalls

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43:29

Dubai Circle we're talking about

43:32

sociology a covert

43:35

what it is done to us as civilization

43:37

got Chuck Nice and we've got our guests from

43:40

up at Yale New. haven connecticut

43:43

haven nicholas christakis and

43:45

christakis knew what ha nicholas how do people find

43:47

you find social media or oh i'm on

43:49

twitter at and at christakis and

43:51

then my lab is human nature lab

43:53

dot net so christakis c i

43:56

r all right yeah right yeah

43:58

k i n a christakis

44:00

In a c h r, I's s t a

44:02

k i's yes on Twitter stockists,

44:04

yeah, okay? So so

44:07

one of the fact. That

44:10

the current A virus is so.

44:13

Rare read. It is incarnations.

44:16

That.

44:18

Is. There any hope it will ever end

44:20

and off", he spoke of herd immunity is

44:22

an effort just one strain, but not another,

44:24

and if the if another strain and other mutations.

44:27

Different enough doesn't as throw all

44:29

right immunizations out the window and biggest start

44:31

this all over again.

44:33

Well, the different sorts of ways that these types

44:35

of plagues and. They

44:37

have a biological and social

44:39

and. The biological

44:41

and they're actually different types of biological

44:43

ends, one biological, and we talked

44:45

about this notion of herd immunity when enough

44:48

people that the herd immunity, the idea

44:50

that group of people can be immune to us.

44:52

This, and even if not, every constituent

44:55

individual is immune, so, for example,

44:57

if you vaccinate ninety six percent of the population

44:59

against measles.

45:01

If one of the four percent on vaccinated people

45:03

happens to get a taste somehow. It'll.

45:05

Create an outbreak because they're surrounded by

45:07

immune people, and that percentage

45:10

that ninety six percentage is the herd

45:12

immunity threshold that it's actually given by little mathematical

45:14

formula that connected to.

45:16

The intrinsic spread ability of the pathogen'so

45:19

so pathogens that spread more easily, you

45:21

need higher numbers, Ashley's the spread ability

45:24

of pathogen, as quantified by something known as

45:26

the basic. Reproduction number.

45:28

The are subzero, the are not,

45:30

and a formula for computing the herd immunity threshold

45:33

is are not minus one divided by

45:35

are not so for the original

45:37

strain of the virus. The are

45:40

there are not was three. Three.

45:42

minus one divided by three means that sixty

45:44

seven percent of the population has

45:47

have had to have acquired immunity one way or

45:49

the other by vaccination, ideally or

45:51

that's solely to. Infection before

45:53

we reach the herd immunity threshold, now I'm

45:55

not going to go into the purpose of measles is famously

45:57

spreadable that would have test on river.

46:00

There are not yeah that's exactly right so

46:02

you're not for measles is like it's the most credible

46:04

could it's like sixteen or eighteen so

46:06

eighteen minus one divided by team gets your

46:08

number that's like ninety six percent are.

46:11

in their success but before you go any further

46:13

as further only non scientists here

46:15

let me just tell those of you who are listening

46:18

What does your Christakis is saying

46:20

is we are not at herd

46:22

immunity?

46:23

Okay more,

46:25

because the del zotto since the delta variants

46:28

shots as an are not have six

46:30

so six minus one divided by six

46:32

gets to eighty three percent and

46:34

so and the only can vary it was

46:36

so the kids we can feel sorry for the original

46:39

one would ever when they're just what was that was murder

46:41

it didn't mean any level ah well with the are

46:43

not was about an hour to twenty jones about three

46:45

the native strain had an are not have

46:47

about three And I is so

46:49

it's herd immunity threshold was about sixty

46:51

seven percent or let me just quickly say

46:53

for some listeners who might know turns

46:56

out this is a simple arithmetic calculation

46:58

if you take into account. Networks

47:01

structure and the fact that people very

47:03

it how many connections they have it actually

47:05

brings that number down little but that's not really relevant

47:07

for our conversation right now these.

47:10

other strains that can be more okay more

47:12

spreadable and can have

47:14

An arm or spreadable, they have an impact

47:16

on me when we don't know they are not for sure, yeah.

47:18

It's. Probably everybody got an Amazon

47:20

now well yeah, but bodies it comes down

47:22

was yup if you don't have a coolness

47:26

don't, see I did not want to encourage people

47:28

to. Get infected us melted ice it

47:30

if it does okay I'll us is not even

47:33

now just had our be as dog

47:35

with a business because you're talking about. about

47:38

lot, of us but there's

47:41

so we don't know exactly what the intrinsic

47:43

are not of the pathogen is the reason only twenty

47:45

so effective is it as second property

47:48

which is it's capacity for immune to skate

47:50

was it and reinfected people's were previously

47:53

immunized Either by infection

47:55

or by vaccination, which is different property

47:57

either way, however, we're getting was case.

48:00

But here's the thing. You ask

48:02

me about how pandemics as? One

48:04

way they and is that enough people?

48:06

Get immunized either through vaccination or through

48:08

and fashion that finally the germ

48:11

runs out of places, it's him go. A

48:13

second way.

48:14

Maybe what's happening with Ami grown and I actually

48:17

discuss this in Apollo's Arrow, which

48:19

is that there's this tendency.

48:21

It's the arise and often seen, but it's

48:23

hard to prove a tendency

48:26

of pathogens to become more benign

48:28

with time, so another biological

48:30

end which is likely to be the case

48:33

is that. This pathogen will mutate

48:35

to become less deadly out.

48:38

which may be happening with ami grown so in other words

48:40

if you think about it as you mentioned earlier neal

48:42

is neal virus infects me The

48:45

sickens me quickly and kills me

48:48

that. variant of the virus Guys

48:51

with an eye on any with, yeah? What if the

48:53

virus gives me mild illness

48:55

and doesn't put me in bed and I'm out about

48:57

spreading it, those variance of the virus?

49:00

I'm to be ascendancy are more fit from

49:03

Darwinian point of view so they will spread

49:05

more and so what happens with the time

49:08

is that the. More spreadable,

49:10

less deadly variants of the virus. On

49:13

average, in general, it is theorized tend

49:15

to come to predominate so that's

49:18

the second way that we get or biological

49:20

lead and maybe that's beginning to happen, so

49:23

if the mild version is ascendance.

49:25

Then.

49:26

Then he and ultimately it will think

49:29

of it has become yell.

49:30

Yes, and I think that's what's gonna happen in fact,

49:33

it's iced as argue think that's

49:35

probably what happened. Then. And eighty

49:37

nine either it was out so called Russian flu

49:39

that many people think was influenza, but some

49:41

other people speculate myself included

49:44

it might have been the last great corona. virus

49:46

pandemic, the eighty ninety Russian flu,

49:49

might actually been Corona virus, and now

49:51

the virus, it may be the case

49:53

that a Corona virus that causes the common cold,

49:56

something called. Oh, see, forty three may

49:59

actually be the this. The'and and echo.

50:01

That what was then a very serious respiratory

50:03

pandemic one hundred years ago, more than hundred

50:05

years ago, so that's the second

50:07

kind of biological and third biological

50:09

and.

50:10

That over great stretches of time, thousands

50:13

of years, of course, we evolve. Then.

50:15

Deal with a virus, so, for example, many humans

50:18

of adaptations against malaria, us against

50:20

odds against tuberculosis against

50:22

other passages that have been around for long time

50:25

because those of. "Us are vulnerable die and

50:27

don't reproduce as effectively and

50:30

other humans with different mutations,

50:32

survivor that's not going to be the case in our lifetimes

50:34

us over long yawns. That.

50:37

In addition to the biological ends

50:39

that we've been discussing just now, there are also social

50:42

ends and the social and of the pandemic

50:44

is when basically when people say. The

50:47

what? They're just going

50:49

to accept this and I

50:51

think that's beginning to happen in

50:53

our society where people are saying.

50:56

That they are kind of beginning enough

50:58

is enough, yes, something like that,

51:00

and that can define you see a social end

51:03

of the pandemic even if the germ is still

51:05

going about it's business. At some

51:07

point humans may be.

51:09

declare victory or put their have their

51:11

sand ah sand will however

51:13

you want to see it and about will mark

51:15

the social end of the pandemic

51:18

I gotta tell ya so sorry for,

51:21

that social or no right. or

51:24

is it too soon now too begin little

51:26

end of the penned i would say so mean know

51:29

people are

51:30

One. Of the metaphors I use his, don't

51:33

have to repeat teeth, unfortunately when was in Greece

51:35

there was no as a boy there was no Florida and

51:37

water so I've. Had many root canals I

51:39

don't have you guys have or maybe some of your listeners of

51:41

at root canals, but they're often as

51:43

get my teacher of, or is it? Will never

51:45

had a phone see by returning the

51:47

trade off is the government doesn't control

51:50

your brain now there was no fluoride in the

51:52

system sniffed my.

51:54

west has been fluoride what fluoride was woken is

51:57

all red up as i say this is

51:59

all it is this

52:00

Theories is a co two guys know, but the

52:02

thing is the thing about root canal is

52:04

that your being in the dentist chair

52:06

and wishing the root canal to end. There's

52:09

no bearing on whether you need root source.

52:12

yes i usually just you need

52:14

a root canal and you're not wanting it has

52:16

actually nothing to do it and that's the same with the virus

52:18

our desires about the virus Ari.

52:21

irrelevant to the virus, the virus

52:24

is another seats are of the natural world

52:26

it has, it's own destiny does debate

52:28

about whether viruses are living or not to the topic

52:30

for. Another conversation, but for the sake of argument,

52:33

is acting like any other living thing is

52:35

it is having what is known in evolutionary biology

52:38

as an ecological release is

52:40

like. When we accidentally release rats

52:42

on to an isolated Pacific island and they over

52:45

run the place this virus is

52:47

over running us is just spreading of spreading

52:49

and spreading it us. It's is found untapped

52:52

terrain and it's just going to have his way

52:54

with us so our desires have nothing

52:56

to do with what happens, unfortunately to the virus,

52:58

but we can. We can,

53:01

ah? Then. Developer kind of

53:03

social modus vivendi with bar as we can just

53:05

or to say, "Well, you know we're just

53:08

you know we've had enough to I think meal it is" Too

53:10

early for us to do that, see, if we

53:12

if we behave better, we can still reduce

53:14

the told of mortality in our society, think

53:17

that the simplest thing. We could do was to be vaccinated

53:20

we. are we can get boosted for it the

53:22

existing boosters but what is also gonna

53:24

be gonna the horizon is a pharmaceutical companies

53:27

are going to release new

53:29

boosters for new variance which

53:31

variance would encourage listeners to get when they come out

53:34

just like you got your annual flu shot or

53:36

you got your tetanus shot every ten years We're

53:39

going to have these other booster shots which it will make

53:41

sense to get, and I think

53:43

we need to recognize that this m are in a

53:45

vaccine technology that we have. His

53:48

mind boggling it, it is

53:51

going to change the future.

53:53

The how human beings our species

53:55

response to pandemic disease because

53:58

we now have a technology that will allow. The

54:00

rapidly prototype and develop.

54:03

The spoke vaccines against novel

54:05

pathogens so that the period

54:07

of time under which we must suffer either. The

54:09

social withdrawal or the death? Will

54:12

be reduced and I think. think

54:14

that is a seats are one thing that has been different

54:16

about this pandemic compared to all the ancestral

54:18

ones and will also be different with

54:21

respect to future pandemics science

54:23

center for source yes but.

54:25

of course nicholas There because

54:27

the vaccines. Would develop

54:30

so quickly. Came

54:33

reason for people. The to.

54:35

This try know I'm they use, they

54:38

use that fact again, I know rather

54:40

than be those like as. And how

54:43

quickly the rare that so wouldn't

54:45

put your sociologist like explain

54:47

that well as when also before

54:49

you explain that you might cause in your books,

54:51

you talk about the fact that.

54:53

The dub mixed messages on

54:55

masks was all as.

54:57

The very bad yes, I think that think

55:00

that there's gonna be a reckoning, and I think that many

55:03

scientists.

55:05

Let me know there are many different sizes, a human enterprise,

55:07

of course, and people very in their beliefs very

55:09

in there. Ability. To collect facts,

55:12

they vary in the fact that they've gathered themselves

55:14

different experimenters come to different experiments,

55:17

they vary in, there are

55:19

analysis of the body of fact succumb to. Different

55:21

conclusions is to be expected,

55:23

and I think one of the things it's very important to explain

55:26

to listeners is that when scientists

55:29

disagree.

55:30

That's a feature not bug of

55:32

science right that's how science progresses

55:35

is theology where there's no disagreement

55:37

ostensibly rights like scientists disagree

55:39

with each other is how the process works and

55:43

and. we test our ideas against the truth

55:45

we test ideas against the natural world

55:48

on m s part of the process of the

55:50

disagreement itself We could

55:52

have done a better job preparing the public to

55:54

see that scientists might, for example, disagree

55:56

about masking but. very

55:58

quickly we're going to do sermon Then we're going to come

56:00

to some consensus. That

56:02

I would have been helpful. No, on

56:04

the.

56:07

On. The speed with which the vaccines were invented

56:09

it's true that they were invented quickly

56:12

but, now the experiments been done, hundreds

56:14

of millions of people have been vaccinated the vaccines.

56:16

Are incredibly safe we have dozens

56:18

and dozens of studies that show that they are also

56:20

effective, not just in the original randomised trials,

56:23

but now enlarge your skill, epidemiological

56:25

studies and. Is built on

56:27

two hundred years of since

56:30

and, why were we

56:32

doing this for two hundred years developing

56:34

these vaccines value of beginning

56:36

with cop car parks be used for? Smallpox

56:39

so no, it's not the case that you

56:41

know that we're doing some kind of creepy experiments

56:44

with a world population releasing completely

56:46

unknown technologies that that's not what's

56:48

that and. Even if we were even if

56:50

that were the case with this is not it is not but

56:53

even if it worth it works

56:55

or as. says for

56:58

yourself itself is not my perhaps you won't

57:00

get vaccinated for whatever reason vaccinated keep

57:03

trying to console him into doing it That

57:05

I said to him, bro. I'm

57:07

your guinea pig. did

57:10

it for you I'm fine

57:12

you might also have you done some you have relatives that are

57:14

inside vouchers do have

57:16

actually more than one have

57:19

to know who. are anti that

57:21

sir them they're young

57:24

when don't understand is very

57:26

young this and they don't. When

57:28

have any part of this, there are also

57:31

kind of conspiracy theorist as well.

57:33

Though you know responded to a club and nephews

57:36

know who you are us and the you listen to this has

57:38

had some bad news right, now

57:40

but as far, as I

57:43

taught us. twenty minutes so

57:45

it was i want to try to hand on a positive yes

57:48

is there any Demographic shift.

57:51

The and respect for science. As

57:53

you go to the younger generation.

57:55

I don't know the answer to that I'm sure there are in

57:57

the answers known I'm sure there's polling on that.

58:00

The them are leading the, the many

58:02

them are leading the climate change, the as dissidents,

58:04

so I think it's an open question think

58:06

if you put if you force me to pick, think

58:09

that.

58:10

The the demonstration of the

58:12

power of science. During

58:14

this pandemic, for example.

58:16

Through the invention of the A.M. are in a vaccine, for

58:18

instance, which I think ultimately will become widely

58:20

acknowledged.

58:22

The and the fact that there were many scientists

58:24

who are correctly calling what was going to happen

58:27

during this pandemic.

58:28

May. Increase public confidence

58:31

and science with respect to other global

58:33

catastrophe, I thought, of course, at Yale last semester

58:35

on global catastrophe with Bill Nordhaus, the

58:37

famous economist who won the Nobel. Prize ah

58:40

for his work on climate change and

58:42

we stop names are yeah exactly

58:46

well, mean cycle thought with no by

58:48

married gotta run gotta

58:50

lot of. My, you know

58:54

that out his i was another guy

58:56

was on a podcast with so if you don't get used

58:58

to come to you i was once was on a party

59:01

has little bonus on podcast with

59:03

feel depressed i said habitat assistant

59:05

all but habitat but if missed it only

59:07

because it his a people mean his know who years

59:09

but just cemented his credentials anyway

59:12

we taught credentials class on global catastrophe

59:14

And. You can think of the that

59:17

corona bars pandemic as a kind of

59:19

accelerated version of

59:21

the challenge we're going to face with climate change,

59:23

you know, that is that what we. Have to rely on each other,

59:26

it's the effects the whole globe, there's

59:28

role of science, there's disputation

59:30

about what to do about what's happening

59:32

all of these teachers there's. Risk tolerance,

59:35

who should tolerate what risk and at which generation,

59:38

all of these features that are features

59:40

of the climate change debate and conversation

59:43

I think our. Our features of

59:45

the how the world is working on front of ours

59:47

and, by the way, the V international

59:50

collaboration that will be required. The

59:52

detect and respond to future

59:54

pandemics just by

59:56

the way off. We get less

59:58

the toy pandemics every ten. Twenty. Years

1:00:01

there was, for example, one in two thousand and nine

1:00:03

each one, n one influenza pandemic, but

1:00:05

nobody remembers it is, it just gave you the sniffles

1:00:08

we get serious wrestler. A pandemic every

1:00:10

fifty or one hundred years, we mention

1:00:12

the nineteen eighteen pandemic there was also nineteen fifty

1:00:15

seven pandemic was killed one hundred and

1:00:17

ten thousand Americans would be two.

1:00:19

Hundreds and twenty thousand Americans today so

1:00:21

this one we're having as a second worst one we've had

1:00:23

in one hundred years more. than have

1:00:25

more pandemics in the future and there's some scientific

1:00:27

evidence that the inter pandemic interval is shortening

1:00:30

so we could get another one in five years

1:00:32

and ten years and twenty years and thirty years we don't

1:00:34

know when it's gonna happen but

1:00:36

it's clear to me that we're gonna need some kind

1:00:38

of international system Are? Monitoring

1:00:41

the emergence of these new pathogens and

1:00:43

responding as global

1:00:45

population to it, as that

1:00:47

system also is going to be analogous

1:00:50

to the kinds of systems we. Need to deal with climate

1:00:52

change, so there are many ways in which the Corona

1:00:54

bars pandemic. Is analogous

1:00:57

to his other global catastrophe

1:00:59

that's on the horizon and I think

1:01:01

that because a shot across about yes as shot

1:01:03

of, and I think that young warnings and think that

1:01:05

young people may see the utility of science.

1:01:08

It may have seen it in their own lives with

1:01:10

respect to the. The run of ours pandemic

1:01:12

and therefore neil. Them to also apply

1:01:15

it as you suggested to other

1:01:17

challenges, so hope Insula

1:01:19

as they say it's hope that ah

1:01:21

that. We will have us

1:01:23

a more sober minded. More

1:01:25

pragmatic and more.

1:01:28

Respectable, I'm not going to see differential but

1:01:30

respectful attitude towards the utility of

1:01:32

science in our society, which one

1:01:34

more thing. Actually.

1:01:36

The root of our wealth and security like one of

1:01:38

the things that's where things it's hilarious to me, source people

1:01:41

use this device, which was invented by scientists

1:01:43

and engineers, axes. You can trace

1:01:45

this device back to faraday in nineteenth

1:01:48

century York in England. And

1:01:51

they, use it to say all these scientists don't know

1:01:53

what they're talking about athletes. for

1:01:57

those of for those of you who are just listening

1:01:59

sought to prison Is is holding up a smash?

1:02:02

Murphy course: Yes, yes, yes

1:02:05

no, not an obvious landis plane, but here's

1:02:07

a quote that I saw on a poster during

1:02:09

the science march. Then. The

1:02:13

first one of the poster said. Nope

1:02:15

is really bad when scientists have to

1:02:17

suffer, such as far as I first

1:02:20

thought expensive assisted really

1:02:22

focus is sick, surplus and other another

1:02:24

one was. What do

1:02:26

we want a time machine and we wanted it,?

1:02:29

so does my second favorite The

1:02:32

favorite was every disaster

1:02:35

movie begins yes

1:02:37

with person in power ignoring

1:02:40

the mornings of scientist at.

1:02:42

risk as Well, because

1:02:44

this been delight, thank you for giving of

1:02:46

your time.

1:02:47

And we need you to go back and teach

1:02:49

a class with all your know those friends I'm gonna go

1:02:52

back to my lab,.

1:02:55

lab but

1:02:58

ah thanks for coming on relatively short notice

1:03:00

because relatively only you only change i knew

1:03:02

of you from previous years but just to have

1:03:05

you as are relevant to anything i'm doing a

1:03:07

that one was only last few days thanks for your faster

1:03:09

thanks you so much on helping them thank you both for having

1:03:11

the it's been having pleasure all right i chuck always

1:03:13

good to have you here man

1:03:16

Next. Time you to call actually nephews are, I will

1:03:19

plead still am tell you which decision

1:03:21

was that they might actually

1:03:23

do something if meal de grasse tyson

1:03:25

call that a half. Since it's about his here's the your

1:03:28

nephew's what they need to understand is, is

1:03:30

that? That is problem of the ages.

1:03:33

In general, other was young people face

1:03:35

a very low risk of death from all causes.

1:03:38

The corona virus increases your nephew's risk

1:03:40

of death by about thirty percent. The

1:03:42

with their, they have their young people,

1:03:44

they have a one in thousand or one in. Then.

1:03:47

Probably one in five thousand chance and dying

1:03:49

in the next year. Corona virus

1:03:51

might increase or two or one point, three

1:03:54

and thousand other may think, oh, absolutely, that's trivial,

1:03:57

but that's actually really substantial increase risk

1:03:59

of death, you know. In an alley where

1:04:01

I'm at circumcision I have with my, the young

1:04:03

people in my extended family, ah,

1:04:05

ads good luck, I'm late listen, they're listening

1:04:08

right now, they listen, sorry they're here,

1:04:10

you must be fun at the dinner table for suspicious.

1:04:15

Yeah that's all,

1:04:18

right gentlemen thank you that's all we got all the

1:04:20

that's all the time we have this has been starts

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