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The Athletic. The

0:32

Athletic Hello,

0:42

welcome to The Athletic Football

0:44

Tactics podcast, where it's a

0:46

big picture episode today. The

0:48

Premier League is our

0:50

focus and very specifically the very top

0:52

of it. Today, we'd like to present

0:54

the definitive state of the Premier League

0:57

title race, because we are two-thirds of

0:59

the way through. There are 12 games

1:02

remaining. Liverpool are top on 60

1:04

points. Manchester City have 59 and

1:06

Arsenal 58. Our

1:09

aim today, to give you a balanced

1:11

measured analysis without getting distracted or

1:13

waylaid by narrative, and there's no

1:15

one better than The Athletics, Michael

1:18

Cox, Liam Tharm and Mark Kerry.

1:21

Hello, gents. Hello, Ali. Hello. This

1:23

is genuinely very

1:26

exciting at the top of the Premier

1:28

League. We're going to check out, as

1:30

we see it, the runners and riders,

1:32

Manchester City, Arsenal and table-topping

1:34

Liverpool. But first, Michael, let's get

1:37

a claret and blue elephant

1:39

out the room. We're not

1:41

including Aston Villa in this discussion. Why is that?

1:44

I think they're too far back. And I'm almost a

1:46

little bit disappointed in them, because I mean, I know

1:48

that's a mad thing to say. No one expected them

1:50

to be part of the title race. If they finish

1:53

fourth, they probably overachieved more than any team in the

1:55

Premier League this year. But when you look at their

1:57

performances when they beat City 1-0 and after... 1-0

2:00

back to back in November, December, start of December

2:02

wasn't it? And then they then

2:04

went and lost points at home to Sheffield

2:06

United I think two games later. I think

2:09

that shows what the Premier League title race is all

2:11

about It's not just about getting results

2:13

against the other big boys You

2:15

can't drop points to anyone really in the bottom half,

2:18

especially not at home. They're coasting along

2:20

very nicely in fourth place I

2:22

think they probably will come fourth, but for

2:24

me, they're not really in the title race at all now I

2:27

think you can factor in as well that they're going

2:29

to have conference-like knockout games to play in In

2:32

terms of their quality and their budget, you'd give

2:34

them every chance to go quite deep

2:36

in that And it's hard to juggle that as well

2:38

as the league form We've seen that with teams in

2:40

recent years and I think they suffer for a lack

2:42

of squad depth Which is fair enough because they've not

2:45

had the time really, you know, our memory in particular

2:47

But it's given the seasons and the budget to actually

2:49

build on that and build a squad that's got the

2:51

depth of those backup positions I think centre back recently

2:53

has been a particular problem Which is

2:56

probably exacerbated by their style more than most because they

2:58

tend to build so short and they need that balance

3:00

on both sides Of having a left-footed left-center back and

3:02

right-footed right center back And I know there's

3:04

you know, some questions over their fallback options

3:06

and the quality they have there So they've

3:08

definitely over performed to a large degree in

3:10

the sense of I think sustaining it for this long So

3:12

as Michael says, it's a shame that they've fallen away a

3:14

little bit But look if they finish fourth fifth, I think

3:16

they're kind of a bit on an island between third and

3:18

fifth And go quite deep in Europe. That'll

3:20

be a phenomenal season. I imagine I

3:22

think as well if you're a side that

3:25

is in the fourth to sixth position I

3:27

know that Jamie Carragher spoken about this before

3:29

that those sorts of teams in that bracket

3:31

are if you're a team That's pushing for

3:33

that position You are by proxy going to

3:36

be quite an inconsistent team and because they

3:38

are in the stage of their

3:40

sort of Journey under you know,

3:42

Emory But it's it's no surprise that they are

3:44

just a little bit inconsistent and the amount of

3:46

points that they'd also have to make up On

3:48

on three teams not just one team means that

3:50

yeah, we can we can comfortably count them out

3:52

You guys are gonna be giving plenty of

3:55

insight on the top three as we go

3:57

But let's start with some numbers mark. There

3:59

are number of places that will provide

4:02

projections, predictions based on models

4:04

built in-house. What's your favorite?

4:06

What's your go-to predictions

4:09

model? I always go

4:11

to Opta. I think the sort of reliability

4:13

overall has been proven. I think that in

4:16

general prediction models are difficult

4:19

because the reason that we

4:21

watch football is not so that we can

4:23

predict what's going on. There's still so many

4:26

games to play, so much drama to be

4:28

had and the model itself is obviously going

4:30

to be updated with every result, so it's

4:32

going to change between now and the end

4:34

of the season. But the current prediction is

4:36

that Manchester City have the the edge of

4:39

finishing first. 51% chance that Manchester

4:41

City will win the title, Liverpool 35% and Arsenal

4:44

14%. So you know that

4:48

all of these probabilities are based on

4:51

historical and recent performances and they sort

4:53

of weight it accordingly in their simulations,

4:55

but I think

4:57

it's fair to say that Manchester

4:59

City had the highest likelihood of winning

5:02

the title because historically that they've shown

5:04

that they rarely lose or even draw

5:06

many games of football and we can

5:08

obviously come on to why the the

5:12

energy coming out of Manchester City isn't quite

5:14

as sort of overwhelming as previous seasons, but

5:16

you do look at it in terms of

5:18

the the hard cold facts and they are

5:20

likely to win a lot of

5:22

their remaining games. So yeah they've got the

5:24

edge of the three. City is the most

5:27

likely winners at this stage. Michael does

5:29

that fit your own thoughts? Yeah

5:31

they've got a track record of hitting form at the

5:33

right time. I think that's been very obvious in the

5:36

the last three that they've won. I think

5:38

it's worth pointing out that they

5:41

got to the midway point of the season having

5:43

not fielded to Broin and Holland and the same

5:45

team since the opening day when I think to

5:47

Broin lasted 20 minutes or something. We saw in

5:50

midweek at Luton how effective that can

5:52

be to Broin setting up for

5:54

four goals is quite incredible and

5:56

I basically think they've got the best starting 11. I'd

5:58

say by a fair distance actually. the individuals

6:00

they've got in that, I think Rodry in

6:02

particular, as long as he's in the teams

6:04

that he basically don't lose this season, that's

6:07

the very obvious pattern. I can't really identify

6:09

many weaknesses at the moment. I think

6:11

at this time last year we could make a case that

6:13

they were so desperate to win the Champions League that

6:15

they might have put all their eggs

6:17

in that basket. Now in the end they didn't, they

6:20

spread it perfectly and they won all three competitions but

6:23

because they just don't have that

6:25

missing trophy basically, I think they've

6:27

got a really good chance of

6:29

actually winning both the big

6:31

competitions again. I think they're the strongest team in the

6:33

Champions League as well. And favourites for

6:35

the Premier League? One thing I'd

6:38

finally just say on the prediction side of things is

6:40

that it is obviously objective. It's designed

6:42

to be objective but there's so many things that

6:44

it can't account for quite in the

6:46

same way in terms of the model. So

6:48

yeah, Michael mentioned Harland and De Bruyne

6:51

coming back and essentially being quite

6:53

fresh compared to a lot of the players

6:55

in the Premier League because of them being

6:58

out with injury. But things like injuries to

7:00

come potentially or fixer schedules and we'll come

7:02

on to Manchester City in particular which I

7:04

think is interesting. You know these predictions think

7:07

logically but there's certain things that you maybe

7:09

can't quite account for and you obviously can't

7:11

account for. Some things that

7:13

just defy logic at times. It's worth noting

7:16

that in terms of the overall predictions. Surely

7:18

there's still an element of subjectivity in

7:20

the fact that in building your model

7:23

you need to decide what the inputs

7:25

are for your model. And in order

7:27

to do that you need to decide

7:29

what you think is important and contributes

7:31

to winning football matches. And there are

7:34

lots of different things that you can

7:36

input. Whether it's underlying numbers, results, squad

7:38

strength, things of that nature. You

7:40

still have, someone has to decide Mark, to what

7:42

extent you weight those, right? Yeah, absolutely,

7:44

yeah. And those are the things that you can treat

7:47

as objective and then weight them

7:49

accordingly. But yeah, you

7:52

can't account for the

7:55

emotional pull of Liverpool with Jochen

7:57

Klopp leaving. extent

8:00

momentum outside of the obvious things like

8:02

results, Liverpool winning the Carabao Cup that

8:04

we can just go on, won't be

8:07

accounted for in a Premier League prediction

8:09

model, but it's really galvanised the whole

8:11

squad, the academy are getting a lot

8:13

of plaudits etc. that those things are

8:16

just really difficult to quantify. So yes,

8:18

you can weight the objectives side of

8:20

things accordingly, but yeah, there's so many

8:22

things that just go on in the

8:24

background that we can't account for, should

8:27

we say. Yeah, momentum famously that thing

8:29

that you can't measure and I've got

8:31

a bit of a B in my bonnet

8:33

about the word overall in a football context

8:35

because I think there isn't a particularly clear

8:37

definition for it either to be honest, but

8:40

that's probably a discussion for another time. Liam,

8:42

out of the three teams that we're discussing,

8:44

City have scored the fewest and conceded the

8:46

most only by a couple of goals here

8:48

and there. Is there anything in that? I

8:51

don't think so. I think Arsenal may be an example of that

8:53

recently where they've gone on a run at the end of December

8:55

or the start of the new year where they were really trying

8:57

to drug and to score. In fact, we did a podcast, I

8:59

think largely based around that on what do

9:02

you take away from that and it will be a

9:04

small sample. But as Mark and Michael have said, small

9:06

samples matter in a target race because one or two

9:09

games can define a whole season or end up being

9:11

the difference. And it's interesting when you

9:13

compare that with City and it's a good piece

9:15

from Samly, our City correspondent, and it's out, which

9:17

sort of touches on some of City's, just their

9:19

state of play more broadly and Guadilla was sort

9:21

of asking about them defensively, that they haven't kept

9:24

a huge number of clean sheets. There's been a

9:26

lot of games that they've won, sort of 2-1

9:28

or 3-1, so they still won it and a

9:30

couple of, I think, consecutive won the wins as

9:32

well at the start of the calendar year. So

9:35

it depends how much you want to read into that because

9:37

you then had Arsenal recently and if I excluded the

9:39

Porto game, which was arguably another example of how they can

9:41

be shut down and we'll come onto that, they've

9:43

then been scoring for fun in recent weeks and you

9:45

score 4-5-6, you're like, Okay, that's a way

9:47

of winning a game where you can crack a game open

9:50

with a set piece goal. And they've been phenomenal at that.

9:52

It's been a bit of a stick to beat them

9:54

with, I think, but it's a useful thing and then you

9:56

go on. and you really put teams to the soil when

9:58

they come out at you. And so I

10:00

think is worse than says it's deductibility anybody

10:03

to win games in different ways so you

10:05

can go and you know when wanted a

10:07

bomb with when they they pursue higher different

10:09

game you can then put five or six

10:11

office human I cannot even they press so

10:13

it's yeah it's it's a cliche thing is

10:15

an f as you know winning without playing

10:17

well by think winning plane different types of

10:20

opponents in different contexts, different games. Which.

10:22

Of these teams, shooting spleen the best right

10:24

now he's in the the best forms, not

10:26

just in terms of results, but in terms

10:28

of what we can measure in terms of

10:30

performance levels. Limb. I'd. Go back

10:32

to Ah so to speak, his family. The scoring recently.

10:34

I think it's it's a rope. And

10:37

if was speaking of other men to being a

10:39

bit tenuous in the superintendents as well, but I

10:41

think it shows a lot of personality from a

10:43

Scot who aren't against clubs was headed up this

10:45

into the noise externally or whatnot but a team

10:47

which they've really pretty well for a big chunk

10:50

of last season then fell away knowing that or

10:52

the narrative be written about them because that they

10:54

are still human beings who be okay. They got

10:56

this fall off season and then we was came

10:58

off as it can happen again the season as

11:00

a squad which is fairly young, anonymous an experienced

11:03

a lot them have got lots of good top

11:05

flight experience but I guess it's hard to races.

11:07

Is funny, specific and a fairly young coaches

11:09

were whether he's been there now is one

11:11

along the seven coaches in the premier league.

11:13

Their ability I think in terms of being

11:15

effective is why would say been the best.

11:17

I think I'm not necessarily the the most

11:19

efficient what they have been in recent weeks

11:21

then always the most aesthetically pleasing to watch.

11:23

partly because team now try to stop them

11:25

playing anesthetic ways and and getting them with

11:27

their wings. but I think it's hims as

11:29

be the best I'd say it's it's finding

11:31

the most optimal solution. They are cracking incident

11:33

with set pieces and that is working to

11:35

the got grace. Happy. Think is if a

11:37

guy's it now to attack that got a good

11:40

set piece country is for meeting where do you

11:42

could retains and until teams consoles now the set

11:44

piece problem but they solved a large either the

11:46

when this problem it's gonna keep working. Just

11:49

on the night of Osnos defensive foundation and

11:51

the numbers to go with it that's conceding

11:53

just two point five shots on target per

11:56

game which is to the fewest in the

11:58

league and just outstanding. How few. That

12:00

is and this is it. A shouted on

12:03

kind of gun the here because he gave

12:05

me a quick me with the stats are

12:07

in a week and ninety one to make

12:09

sure that I used that Leicester City where

12:12

the last title winning team. He did not

12:14

concede the fewer shots on target per ninety

12:16

minutes which is others in two thousand and

12:18

fifteen sixteen. so it shows just how common

12:21

is said that the best defense to to

12:23

win the title with as he plays into

12:25

off know there are the positivity surrounding Arsenal

12:27

all the numbers pointed Awesome having strong title

12:29

credentials. With that strong defensive foundation but

12:32

looked more broadly as well at that

12:34

expect he goes against is just not

12:36

Point Seven Pay Ninety minutes. Are they

12:38

giving up chances worthy of less than

12:40

one call per game? which is also

12:42

that's at the best in the lead

12:44

the season am. and since Two Thousand

12:47

Eighteen Nineteen, only two teams have had

12:49

a better record Am in a whole

12:51

season defensively and I was Manchester City

12:53

in Twenty Eighteen Nineteen. And of course

12:55

Manchester City again in at Twenty Twenty

12:57

One twenty Two season by season say.

13:00

They won the title sites at from it

13:02

from a defensive perspective I also don't win

13:04

the league this season a wendy because they

13:06

they bought their how that they've been so

13:08

much stronger than last season they built ready

13:10

well it will just be yeah I said

13:12

the reason that will come on say of

13:14

being may be outdone by a stronger matches

13:16

your them footing had you know I might

13:18

be that they but let's have because I

13:20

can't say yet what yes by that part

13:22

of it is maybe not the the songs

13:24

paper Daves they plug the average on the

13:26

last I imagine against it I said side

13:28

I got when it said say. When the

13:30

title yet? or they've been so strong and

13:32

consistent a across the how season sites yet

13:34

more. Maybe that does make my point even

13:36

stronger that they might fall at yeah, don't

13:39

I? I mean you mentioned about Manchester City

13:41

and Twenty Eighteen nineteen? And their

13:43

defensive record. I remember Guardiola set think he

13:45

said that the proudest he was was after

13:47

a game away bomb twisted he didn't allow

13:49

bomb with a single shot entire game that

13:52

some that will he likes. he loves that

13:54

control and even though off know didn't achieve

13:56

that gets nice. Also I thought is a

13:58

similar kind of performance. in the

14:00

sense of the first half they just didn't let Newcastle out

14:03

of their own half. And actually

14:05

considering how dominant they were,

14:07

I almost thought they should have

14:09

created more chances and scored more goals. The goals

14:11

tended to come from set pieces, a couple of

14:13

weird kind of pinball goals. But in

14:15

terms of the overall performance and how little

14:17

they allowed Newcastle to get into the game,

14:20

it was probably the best I've seen Arsenal

14:22

play this season. And considering we're speaking about

14:24

what happened last year, they did fade it

14:26

pretty much this time. I think that

14:29

was a really promising performance from them

14:31

in pretty much every aspect. Just a

14:33

number to go with that. Arsenal regained

14:35

possession 14 times against Newcastle

14:37

and that was the most in a Premier League

14:39

game under Michael Arteza. So it just speaks to

14:41

your point there Michael. Today's

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there was also fans were little rattled about

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this situation at the top of the fish

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and not was very com very clear that

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more about this you don't need to sign

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scored three or more in five

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of that offsets an exit that

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without buying a striker so mark

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well done. Thus aged. Fairies.

17:05

Harry Wow. very very quickly as luck

17:07

with while accepting that these three teams

17:10

are excellent. Or let's get that out

17:12

the way first, they are. All.

17:14

Three of them. Likely. To win over

17:16

sort of games from now until the end

17:18

of the season but as part of exercise

17:20

to work out who might win the thing

17:22

I'd like to ask you to pick some

17:24

holes in these excellent teams and I'd like

17:26

to know between the three of them were

17:28

we think the suited tactical concerns would be

17:31

of my to bat starting with of the

17:33

team according to op to most likely to

17:35

win it Manchester City well I think the

17:37

same rarely since whole and came in has

17:39

been the president control games as well as

17:41

they used to go. There has been quite

17:43

explicit about the me one of it's nice.

17:45

Things that go the other that thing is very honest

17:47

about the tactic than that I think he's he doesn't.

17:49

Try. To keep his cards close to his

17:52

chest is quite honest and open by analyzing is

17:54

teams and he's pointed out a lot that if

17:56

to brewing gets the ball deployments to. Play.

17:58

both and behind hold on to go in behind

18:01

and if that works great but if not then it's going to

18:03

come back at the City very

18:05

quickly. They do play a certain way

18:07

defensively now often with for

18:10

proper defenders I would say and Rodry who's

18:12

a brilliant screen in front of them but

18:15

I think things in midfield can be a little bit

18:17

open and some of their

18:19

poorer performances this season I would

18:21

say the defeat against Wolves for example is

18:24

when they've looked a little bit flimsy in midfield.

18:26

They're going to dominate games I just don't think they control

18:28

games as well as they're used to and I

18:31

think there will be one or two games where

18:33

they'll have problems with against inferior

18:35

teams who have a couple of good counter attacking

18:37

players. Completely agree with this and there's a great

18:39

stat from from Samley's piece that I already mentioned

18:42

that they conceded six goals from fast breaks this

18:44

season in the league which is a an up

18:47

to proxy for counter attacking from deep specifically. For

18:49

context last season they conceded three goals this is

18:51

specific in the league so you're looking already at

18:53

twice as many with with a period left to

18:56

play and sure that's still

18:58

you know quite a very specific type of goal

19:00

in the very sort of set criteria but I

19:02

think it might be partly reflection. Guaido

19:04

likes to chop and change but I think again it's still

19:07

been a case of trying to find balance and as Michael

19:09

says last season was tactically tweaking you

19:11

know to fit Holland in and knowing what

19:13

you're sort of shaping it around but this

19:15

season's almost finding a plan B when

19:18

you haven't got de Bruyne and Holland and then

19:20

trying to go back to sort of plan A

19:22

and go how do we fit that around what

19:24

we need right now and the players and the

19:26

personnel we've got so it's partly showing that change

19:28

from Grudish to Dokku I think is a great

19:30

example of that of someone who could be really

19:32

devastating but in the same way

19:34

that Grudish his default really seems to be to

19:36

retain the ball take lots of touches to dribble

19:38

and side will go backwards you know there's a

19:41

reason and we'll probably still see it in the

19:43

Champions League like we did last season where you

19:45

know City will play their their ball dominant or

19:47

that they're controlling midfielders in those big games where

19:49

you know Bernardo came in even when Maris was

19:51

was absolutely flying in the second half of last

19:53

season and we'll still come in to give them

19:55

that control so again we're speaking specifically about the

19:58

league here but yeah I think That's why I

20:00

mentioned their lack of clean sheets, I think, comes as

20:02

a reflection of that. They signed quite a few dribblers

20:04

in the summer with Guadilla clearly just trying to add

20:06

in that extra layer like he always does. It can

20:08

go both ways at times. That's some lead piece was

20:10

really interesting as well. I read it this

20:13

morning and it had a really cool quirk

20:15

of a stat that said that they've conceded

20:17

a goal from the first shot on target

20:19

faced 14 times in all competitions

20:21

this season, which you could put down to it

20:23

being a bit odd, a bit of a quirk,

20:25

a little bit unlucky for whatever reason. But I

20:27

think that's, to both of your point, by

20:30

design, the fact that they're not controlling the

20:32

games and it's becoming slightly transitional and they

20:34

are weak in the transitional moment. So it's

20:36

that they maybe don't concede a lot of

20:38

shots. I think, again, per 90 minutes they've

20:40

conceded the fewest shots in the Premier League

20:42

this season, but it's the quality of the

20:45

shots that they do face. It's no coincidence

20:47

then that the quality of those shots and

20:49

the chances that they give up are more

20:51

likely to be scored by the opposition and

20:53

then you're either in a drawing game state

20:55

or a losing game state and that lack

20:57

of control then does go. So what

21:00

seems like maybe a quirk of a stat

21:02

actually has sort of reason behind it. I guess

21:04

based on what you guys are saying, I'm looking

21:06

at the four day period where

21:09

they travelled to Arsenal on the 31st of

21:11

March and then to Aston Villa also

21:13

on the 3rd of April and Villa

21:15

in particular, if we're talking about transition

21:17

threats, if we're talking about teams that

21:19

they've struggled against already this season, that

21:21

one should be circled, I think. In

21:24

terms of Liverpool, are league leaders at

21:26

the moment, Mark, what might be their

21:28

quirk tonight? Well, from a tactical

21:30

perspective, I think for a completely different

21:33

reason, I think it's also their vulnerability

21:35

in transitional moments. They really like to

21:37

open the game up and make it

21:39

a bit of a basketball

21:41

game and more often than not, they

21:43

are the better side at exposing those

21:46

transitional moments. But I guess you have

21:48

to take the rough with the smooth and realise that when

21:50

teams do come at them

21:52

and have more direct attacks then they're

21:55

also vulnerable. So for example, Liverpool have

21:57

113 direct attacks. We've spoken many times about

21:59

that. that being a proxy four counter-attacking.

22:01

So 113 direct attacks is more than

22:03

anyone else in the league but 81

22:06

direct attacks conceded is the third most

22:08

in the league. So it's not like

22:10

they are you know opening the game

22:12

up and sort of shutting it down

22:14

at the back is you know they

22:16

do have that the vulnerability and we've

22:18

seen it across multiple games recently that

22:20

the goalkeeper be it Alison or Kelleher

22:22

have bailed Liverpool out at times and

22:24

that's obviously the the point of being

22:26

an elite team and having elite goalkeepers

22:28

to be able to you

22:30

know bail you out on those key moments but

22:32

they do leave the the back door open and

22:34

even in the FA Cup this week there was

22:36

some really big chances that they

22:39

gave up and Southampton probably should have scored

22:41

two maybe three of them and for

22:43

reasons I won't go into obviously Liverpool's current

22:46

squad there was you know reason for that because

22:48

it wasn't their first 11 but I

22:50

think it's definitely been a trend and this season that

22:53

Liverpool have opened the game

22:55

up but that transitional they

22:57

basically back their their players who are often

23:00

better than the opposition's players to to

23:02

expose that transition but sometimes you've got

23:04

to be careful that if they do

23:06

concede the first goal then then they'll be chasing

23:08

it and that's where you just get a couple

23:10

of draws here and there which in a title

23:12

race can obviously be fatal. I think it's a

23:14

very different team and scored largely to

23:17

when they did win the title so it's not

23:19

always a perfect comparison but of the three contenders

23:21

we're speaking about here they've been ahead at half

23:23

time in the fewest number of games this season

23:25

so that's nine Arsenal okay there's only one more

23:27

with ten. Arsenal have really sort of been dragged

23:29

from that I think a bit this season not

23:31

being able to you know start fastening games partly

23:33

because they did so well last season. City have

23:35

been ahead in 13 of their 26 so half

23:37

the time for City and again maybe this is

23:39

unfair because it's a team playing slightly differently to

23:41

when they did win the league but I think

23:43

part of their success before was being so efficient

23:45

at being ahead in games and they have worked around

23:47

that they've scored an awful lot of late goals 23 in

23:50

the final well I'd say fine 50 minutes

23:52

but more than that with with extra time or

23:54

stoppage time sorry so beyond the 76th minute

23:56

so they've had more goals scored beyond the

23:58

76th minute than the entire first half

24:00

which I think you look at

24:02

them solving problems really well continuously. The Bournemouth game

24:05

is a great example when Klopp was able to

24:07

shuffle the front three. I know they've had a

24:09

ridiculous number of going along with some substitutes which

24:11

are good things but I think you

24:13

want them to have a bit more balance at times to

24:16

do that as well but also have games where

24:18

you are really taking a team early on and

24:20

you're efficient, you're going to and you're putting them

24:22

back. There was a great example early this season,

24:24

early September at home, they don't have a chance

24:27

to do that. They went in front early on, pushed

24:29

them back and this is a bit of side that had

24:31

a really really good start to the season but I don't

24:34

think I've seen enough of that from Liverpool this season and

24:36

they don't always need to do that but I think it's

24:38

generally something we see of title winners where they can do

24:40

that to teams and just be so devastating. And

24:42

then Liam, what might be the

24:45

weaknesses in Arsenal's? I

24:48

still think they're the most specific attacking team. They've

24:51

shown some more flexibility I think in being able

24:53

to use habits in different roles and Troncetide particularly

24:55

as a false nine has been a really good

24:57

solution so they're finding more ways but I think

25:00

they're still quite reliant on attacking teams as wingers

25:02

in a certain way and then finding those options

25:04

that fall back every summer coming inside or getting

25:06

on the overlap and I think Porto showed that

25:08

specifically as a game where when they do come

25:11

up against a really tight, compact mid-block they can

25:13

struggle and open play sometimes. The best team in

25:15

the league or the title winners tend to dominate

25:17

and set pieces, that's been a trend but I think they tend

25:19

to not be as reliant on them as Arsenal have been this

25:24

year. What

25:29

about non-tactical concerns,

25:31

Michael? Well I'd

25:33

still argue that Arsenal are the most reliant on

25:35

their key players of those three type

25:37

of contenders. I think a squad depth is good, it's

25:39

much better than it was a couple of years ago

25:41

but I still think if

25:43

they lost Saka or Erdogan or Rice for

25:46

a significant period of time I think it

25:48

looks like a very different team and I

25:50

think when you look at how City have

25:52

coped without Holland and De Bruyne, Liverpool have

25:54

got through a really tough period without Salah

25:57

and Alexander-Arnold I would say in particular has been

25:59

so much better. others out as well. I'm

26:01

just not sure Arsenal would withstand

26:03

that well enough to

26:05

get the most points of these three sides. Yeah,

26:08

I mean Michael mentioned injuries there with

26:10

Liverpool. To Sternick said I know

26:12

that every squad has injuries

26:14

across the season but in recent weeks

26:16

especially, obviously we saw it in the

26:18

Carabao Cup final just how many first

26:20

team injuries they had. So Alexander

26:22

Arnold, Alison Becker, Graven Betsch got injured on

26:25

the day, Curtis Jones, Jovta Matip, Nunez, Salah,

26:27

Sovesly, Endo came off and has been injured

26:29

since I don't know if it's maybe touch

26:31

and go for the next couple of weeks.

26:34

Then they've got more academy players like Ben

26:36

Doak and Stefan Bichettech as well. It's

26:38

just if anything sort of non-tactical is

26:40

to derail the rest of the season,

26:42

I think it will be the fact

26:44

that they've just got so many players

26:46

on the treatment table. And then the

26:48

obvious other narrative is that could the

26:50

emotion maybe just get the best of

26:52

Liverpool? I think there was the

26:54

high profile one from 10 years ago

26:56

now where the emotion of nearly reaching

26:58

a title win for the first time

27:00

in a long time just got the

27:03

better of Liverpool and everything surrounding Jurgen

27:05

Klopp's exit, maybe there could be something

27:07

there. I don't think that would. I think mainly it

27:09

would be down to injuries if anything does

27:11

derail Liverpool's title push. I think

27:13

quickly on that Michael, what

27:15

we might call the narrative-based approach.

27:17

You've got Klopp's final season, Pep's

27:19

been there and done it, are

27:21

Teta and Arsenal going for their

27:23

first title. For you,

27:26

what's actually important here? What actually

27:28

matters and to what extent do

27:30

these things help or hinder teams?

27:33

Yeah, I think the pressure can get to,

27:35

if you like, new sides who aren't accustomed

27:37

to challenging for the titles. I think maybe

27:40

that did affect Arsenal last year. I think

27:42

the interesting thing is that in

27:45

league football recently, we haven't seen many examples

27:47

of a team going for their first title

27:49

after a long time and it

27:51

being an actual fight. Because if you look

27:53

at Liverpool, they basically won it by Boxing

27:56

Day. Napoli last year were

27:58

about 20 points clear in February. even

28:00

when you go back to City for the first

28:03

time. Although it might sound weird these days, City

28:05

had a reputation as kind

28:07

of a bustlers almost. I mean like how they lost

28:09

the FA Cup final in 2013, the

28:13

final day of 2012 with the Aguero

28:15

goal wasn't exactly convincing. They needed to

28:17

stop each time goals against a, you

28:19

know, nearly relegated team. So I

28:22

do think that is an issue for Arsenal. They do have to

28:24

prove that they can cope with the pressure. Leicester

28:26

2016 is kind of a similar example. Okay,

28:28

they got over the line, but there were

28:31

some games where it was quite obvious they

28:33

were feeling it. So yeah,

28:35

I think the emotion for Liverpool obviously comes into

28:37

play personally. I don't think that is

28:39

a negative thing. I think it's a net positive, but

28:42

I think at some pressured moments,

28:45

things can get a bit out of hand.

28:47

Again, I'd compare it to the Giroir game

28:49

against Chelsea in 2014, not the slip, but

28:51

the fact that he responded to it probably

28:53

a bit too emotionally. And, you

28:55

know, from City's perspective, I don't really see

28:58

any reason to be negative about them here.

29:00

It's worth pointing out they are going for

29:02

four in a row, which would be historic.

29:05

Only four teams have won three in a row. Huddersfield

29:07

in the 20s, Arsenal in the

29:09

30s, Liverpool in the 80s, and

29:11

Manchester United twice under Ferguson. I don't

29:13

really see many signs of complacency creeping in.

29:15

And I just talk about that a lot. It's

29:17

something that I don't think you can really understand

29:19

too much as outsiders, but it's clearly a thing

29:22

when you have to be at 100% every

29:24

week. But I haven't seen

29:26

any signs of that so far. We

29:28

occasionally like to explore the underlying numbers,

29:31

lift the lid and explore it. It's

29:33

murky underworld to see if there are

29:35

any clues as to who might be

29:37

the sturdiest, who might be the most

29:40

sustainable from here on out. Are there

29:42

any clues? Well, one

29:44

method that I've spoken about before is to

29:47

look at expected goal difference because you can

29:49

see across a longer period, rather than actually

29:51

just looking at points, which are

29:53

kind of absolute, looking

29:56

at teams chances created and chances

29:58

conceded and the quality of them.

30:00

them and weigh them up against the

30:02

league table. And there's only three teams

30:04

who have an expected goal difference of

30:06

one or above. And that's, of course,

30:08

the current top three. So they are

30:10

out on their own as a top

30:13

three. And then there's not too much

30:15

to decide between them, really. We're talking

30:17

small decimal points. So I'm reluctant to

30:19

really kind of place too much importance

30:21

on that difference. But if you were

30:23

to push me, Arsenal do have the

30:25

best expected goal difference of the three.

30:27

And that's owing to their strong defensive

30:29

foundation that I've already spoken about. But

30:32

from an attacking perspective, Arsenal have the

30:34

third best non penalty goals, unexpected goals.

30:37

So it's definitely clear that their defensive

30:39

numbers are the strongest. So in

30:42

order of expected goal difference, it

30:44

goes Arsenal, then Manchester City, then

30:46

Liverpool. Whether or not that

30:48

will actually be the order of the

30:50

league table, I'm not willing to stick

30:52

my neck out on the line. But

30:54

I'm just giving you the facts. Anything

30:56

notable in the three team schedule, guys?

30:58

Two fixtures that absolutely stand out come

31:00

in March. Manchester City playing away at

31:02

Liverpool and taking on Arsenal as well.

31:04

Huge games in the context of the

31:06

title race. There may be a school

31:08

of thought that big games are not

31:10

to be scared of. If you win

31:12

them, then you give yourself an even

31:15

better chance of winning the title at

31:17

Liam. Anything notable in the schedules? I

31:19

think Liverpool specifically, if they continue to go deeper

31:21

in Europe, are going to be playing Thursday, Sunday,

31:23

which, OK, they've had

31:26

to play that way because they underperformed last season

31:28

compared to what they would want to do. But

31:30

I remember I think this being a thing, I

31:32

could be misremembering what we talked them in when

31:34

they were chasing Leicester that season, being a bit

31:36

disgruntled that just their schedule and playing Europe on

31:38

a Thursday, then playing on a Sunday as a

31:40

result, meant pretty much every game Leicester would get

31:42

the chance to play before them. And they'd constantly

31:44

be playing catch-up. So you don't really have the

31:46

chance to put pressure on your position. And

31:49

look, there's positives and negatives to that in the sense when

31:52

you get a chance to go deeper in Europe and

31:54

two, if another team steps up, you know you've got

31:56

momentum going into a game. But obviously, it then puts,

31:58

I hate the phrase, like, fate in the house. hands of X team,

32:01

but it gives them the advantage knowing we

32:03

get to play first, we get to be

32:05

in control. So that might be a slight

32:07

run call to consider and realistically I think

32:09

looking at the quality, you'd expect Liverpool to

32:11

go quite deep in the opening. Especially because

32:14

Liverpool play a way to spot a Prague

32:16

on the Thursday before playing against Manchester City.

32:18

So even that alone could be a massive

32:20

swing. And it's funny, I look at all

32:22

three of their fixtures and I look at

32:24

Manchester City and I'm like, oh, that looks

32:27

like a tough run, Manchester United, then Liverpool,

32:29

then I think the Brighton game

32:31

has actually been rearranged because of the FA

32:33

Cup, but still they got to play Brighton,

32:35

Arsenal, Aston Villa. They're like, okay, well they've

32:37

got the hardest fixtures and then you look

32:39

at Liverpool's and they end by playing Spurs,

32:41

Villa and Wolves who we've spoken about before

32:43

and it's quite clear they're having a really

32:45

strong season. And then Arsenal got

32:47

away trips to Manchester City, Brighton, Wolves,

32:49

Manchester United and Spurs as well. So

32:51

there's so much that could still change

32:53

because they all do have tricky fixtures. I think

32:56

the order of the fixtures can sometimes be the

32:58

thing that could swing it, but they've all

33:00

still got so many tough games ahead.

33:03

So still a long way

33:05

to go in this basically. Okay, so

33:07

much to think about,

33:09

so much analysis presented. Let's

33:13

finish with some

33:15

focused thoughts and

33:17

the way I'd like to frame it is

33:19

to come to you, Mark, first and ask

33:21

you if Liverpool are to win the Premier

33:24

League title in May, as much

33:26

as it will be because the football gods have

33:28

decided that that's the strongest

33:30

narrative, Klopp's final season, outside

33:33

of the vibes and narrative, what

33:36

will be the reason in your eyes? I

33:39

think it alludes to what Liam mentioned before,

33:41

that you could think of it as a

33:43

positive or a negative in terms of their

33:45

use of their bench and I guess more

33:47

broadly saying that they have the most varied

33:50

attack and able to switch

33:52

things within game to find solutions to

33:54

issues that they may be facing within

33:56

the game. So, Liam mentioned

33:58

about the sheer number of goal involvements

34:01

that have been scored or assisted in

34:03

Liverpool's game. So Liverpool substitutes have accounted for

34:06

39 goal involvements, so goals

34:08

and assists in all competitions this season. I

34:10

think that is actually from the

34:12

weekend that's just gone, so maybe slightly

34:14

changed MSU slightly, but that's comfortably more

34:17

than any other Premier League side. So

34:19

their ability to influence

34:21

games with changes could be the

34:23

difference maker. And Liam, if Arsenal

34:25

win the title, it will

34:27

be because... I think their defence

34:30

is going to stay so strong and that can

34:32

compensate for possibly any shortcomings that they do have

34:34

in attack. I think the real litmus test for that

34:36

will be, we saw last season when they went to

34:38

the Ettie had in what was largely

34:40

painted as a title decider in some form, it's

34:42

not when teams just play short in the press

34:44

and do let them press them, but when that

34:46

is going on and they say, okay, now we're

34:48

going to go long and we're going to play

34:50

either on to the number nine or go over

34:52

the press entirely, how they kind of respond to

34:54

that. And Michael if City make it four titles

34:56

in a row, Pep Guardiola would be the first

34:58

manager ever to achieve that and the reason will

35:00

be... Well I think they have got the best starting

35:03

11 and in particular I think they've

35:05

got the best holding midfielder in Rodri, I think

35:07

they've got the best chance creator in De Bruyne

35:09

and they've got the best goal scorer in Holland

35:12

and as long as those three are fit, I

35:14

think they've got a very good chance of winning it. That

35:18

was a very strong answer, I must say that might

35:21

have just swung it for me. If

35:23

I'm sort of picking based on what

35:25

you guys have presented to me there,

35:27

I'm probably going with up to boringly

35:29

and going for a Manchester City title

35:31

win. It's been really really great to

35:33

hear you guys break down what could

35:35

be the most exciting title race in

35:38

recent history given the nature of it, given

35:40

the fact there are three teams only separated

35:42

by two points and how rare that is.

35:45

We hope that it lives up to the

35:47

billing and we'll be here every step of

35:49

the way on the Athletic Football Tactics podcast.

35:51

We love hearing from you whether it's on

35:53

Twitter or even better

35:55

on the episode page on

35:58

the Athletic website. comment

36:00

on each specific episode and I'd

36:02

love to hear if anything the

36:04

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36:06

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36:08

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36:10

be lifting the Premier League title

36:12

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