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coverage. Hello

1:06

there, thanks for joining us again this

1:08

week on The Athletic Football Tactics podcast.

1:10

I'm Ali Maxwell. Great to have

1:13

you with us. I'm with Mark Kerry, I'm

1:15

with Liam Tham, and with Michael Cox as

1:17

well. Hello guys, how are we doing? Good,

1:20

Ali, how are you? Very well. I enjoy

1:22

these very busy midweek

1:24

slates of Premier League action. Staggered

1:27

kickoff times, where do we stand on those?

1:29

I mean, for the at-home viewer, it's a

1:31

bit of a novelty, but you're often left

1:33

in a situation where you don't really know

1:35

which game you're meant to watch from

1:37

sort of nine o'clock onwards, or even from 8.30

1:40

onwards. Well, I

1:42

was at Luton Arsenal on Tuesday night, an

1:44

8.15 kickoff, and it's just too late. Games

1:46

go on so long these days. It finished

1:48

at like 25 past 10. Really

1:51

had to run to get my train. 8.15 is

1:54

too late for me. It felt weird, I

1:56

reported on the Brighton-Brentford game yesterday,

1:58

and it felt too early to do it. 7.30 it felt like

2:00

it should be at least 7.45 or 8. It was quite jarring.

2:04

So he's not on board with these mistakes.

2:29

I think that's worthy of looking

2:32

into them last night as

2:34

Opta tweeted, Robert Sanchez saved a

2:36

penalty from Bruno Fernandez. And

2:39

that ended a run of 32 consecutive

2:42

Premier League penalties having been scored

2:44

the previous miss was

2:46

Erling Holland against Sheffield United back in

2:48

August. So good time to

2:50

be talking penalties because this is quite the

2:52

quirk, Michael. Yeah, we decided to do

2:55

this topic before that missed one last night, which

2:57

I was a little bit annoyed about, I must

2:59

say. But yeah, the conversion rate is 91% so

3:02

far this season. Obviously, the smallest sample

3:04

size at this point. That

3:07

is quite significantly above

3:09

anything we've seen before in the Premier League. I

3:11

mean, it sort of adds to the baffling nature of

3:13

last night because penalty saving has not been a

3:16

strength of Robert Sanchez's. It was

3:18

only the third penalty he saved in his career

3:20

or that hasn't been scored against him. Holland against

3:22

James Ward-Prouse last season

3:24

now in a game that Brighton won but

3:26

previously conceded. I think

3:29

10-12 penalty goals. They just weren't a part of

3:31

his game that was evident really at Brighton, which

3:33

was strange. It was such a big, good reactive

3:36

shot stopper. And as I'm sure we'll go through,

3:38

it's just something that I think certain goalkeepers seem

3:40

to have or not have. It's nothing inherent

3:42

about sort of body type or size.

3:45

It just seems to be a really

3:47

big psychological thing. Interesting. There's an

3:49

interesting technical discussion that we will

3:51

have. But first, a more

3:54

broad discussion, Michael, that there's a lot

3:57

of VAR discussion always.

4:00

at the moment and as part of

4:02

that, a lot of discussion about the

4:04

penalties that VAR gives or does not

4:06

give. Overall, do you think

4:08

that there are too many penalties, let's

4:11

say, in the Premier League, elite level football

4:13

at the moment? I think before

4:16

my view on whether there's too many, I think it's worth

4:18

just saying that there are more and there

4:20

has been a jump since VAR came in. The

4:22

peak was actually the second season of VAR

4:25

where there was 125 penalties awarded and

4:30

that was noticeably, even without looking at the

4:32

stats, it was quite noticeable that season. So

4:34

to give some context, the previous

4:36

few seasons it was often in the 80s and then a big jump

4:38

up to 125 was a big increase. And

4:41

VAR is obviously responsible, I think particularly

4:43

with handballs, but I thought that foul

4:45

last night, the Manchester United one, I

4:48

thought that was a classic example of whether you think it's a

4:50

foul or not. I think that

4:52

so rarely gets given without VAR because

4:54

I think it's so difficult for the

4:56

naked eye to see basically a boot

4:58

almost swiping the top of someone else's

5:00

foot in full speed. That's really difficult

5:02

to see. But obviously with VAR is

5:04

picking out these little things that it's

5:07

not that it's not a penalty, it's just not a

5:10

penalty in non-VAR football. And of course that's what most

5:12

of us are accustomed to. I

5:14

think the bigger, more contentious point really has

5:16

been the handball situation. It's probably been more

5:18

contentious for that, I think, as Michael says.

5:21

Sometimes you can spot fouls that aren't

5:23

as noticeable in real time because of the pure speed

5:26

of things or the angle that look, it takes a

5:28

lot to keep up with the games and have good

5:30

lines of sight. So I can understand why there's more

5:32

complaints about the handball side of things. I

5:34

do think it's interesting as well that when

5:36

this big penalty spike happened, coincided with

5:39

a high volume behind closed doors games

5:42

in an era where figuratively penalties should

5:44

be easier to take to some degree or for

5:46

a lot of players, I appreciate it's a different

5:48

environment if you've always taken them against crowds. I'm

5:50

sure there'll be some players that like

5:52

taking it against a crowd to get to them up. I

5:55

imagine for a lot of players, and especially if

5:57

you're taking them in away games or in a

5:59

high-stakes situation, that that's that added pressure of

6:01

people getting on top of you, hearing home fans

6:03

if you're an away player. So that to me

6:05

is interesting that maybe now players have just started

6:07

to get used to it. They've had three, four

6:09

seasons now, how long it's been, have taken them

6:11

in that environment. Regular penalty takers

6:13

have had a chance to practice and to them

6:15

it's second nature now waiting three minutes for a

6:17

VAR today. I mean I

6:19

don't want to make it too much of a controversial

6:22

statement to sort of debate but it feels like with

6:24

VAR as well there's far more

6:26

erroneous sort of awarding of a

6:29

penalty and the couple that come to mind is Wolves.

6:31

I know that they've been quite hard done by but

6:33

the ones where it's slowed down to

6:35

such an extent that in real time you can see

6:37

that a player is maybe going to kick the ball

6:39

pulling out and if you do

6:41

slow it down with an inch of its life, VAR is going to

6:43

give it and it just as you say Michael feels like and

6:46

the numbers suggest that they are just being awarded so

6:48

much more. In terms of

6:50

minutes per goal for a penalty being scored

6:52

it's 650 minutes per goal this season

6:56

for a penalty and in the past couple of seasons, the

6:58

past four or five seasons it's been closer to 800 or

7:00

900. So we are

7:02

just obviously seeing them so much more frequently and

7:05

I'm personally not a massive fund of seeing it,

7:07

I just think it can please excuse the game.

7:09

In specific games I think it can be less

7:11

entertaining as well so we've already had six penalty

7:13

goals in games between the big six this season,

7:15

there were seven in the entirety of

7:17

last season in terms of games between those opponents.

7:21

I think sometimes it can be a bit of a shame

7:23

when you get big games it's not like they're decided by

7:25

goals or small decisions like that. The only

7:27

real upside I think you get from it now

7:29

is because there's more penalties, you get cool instances

7:31

of keepers saving two penalties in a game which

7:33

is a real I think technical skill and psychological

7:35

skill and there's Marcon Bolker this season for Nese

7:37

against Monaco, Lukas Chevalier for Lid recently and I

7:40

think Diogo Acosta as well saved a couple last

7:42

season in the same game and from two different

7:44

takers so that I think is the upside. That

7:46

is cool but it has really not added anything

7:48

to my life that. Some

7:51

of us are into different things clearly. Then

7:54

you will absolutely not care about what

7:56

happened in Kingstonian's Isthmus League Cup game

7:58

last week. where in the

8:01

90 minutes they miss

8:03

two penalties taken by two

8:05

different takers and saved by two

8:07

different goalkeepers. That must be pretty

8:09

rare. Kingstonian ironically then won

8:11

on a penalty shooter. Wow. Liam

8:18

mentioned the word entertainment I think there Michael,

8:21

that there is what for some,

8:23

including myself, and for some reason a

8:25

feeling that a penalty goal in such

8:27

a low scoring sport where one goal

8:29

has such a big impact on the

8:31

outcome on the result is

8:34

sort of cheaper than a goal scored

8:37

from a set piece, well from any

8:39

other situation and therefore

8:42

for me it does feel like it

8:44

makes the product worse. Yeah I

8:46

kind of know what you mean it's probably not how

8:48

you'd want your team to score a goal. There is

8:50

an argument to say that if there are more fouls

8:53

then overall it is benefiting the more technical players in

8:55

the game. So yeah you've

8:57

got to consider that as

8:59

well. And then also there's the question

9:02

about the awarding of penalties for

9:05

certain infringements and an

9:08

article that John Muller wrote on the athletic site

9:11

touched on something I've always thought was a

9:13

really interesting discussion which is essentially are

9:15

penalties too strong a reward

9:18

for certain infringements or infringements in certain areas

9:20

of the penalty box and there's a data

9:22

aspect to this question, a strong one Mark

9:25

which is a penalties probability

9:28

of being scored is broadly 0.78. Yes. Maybe

9:30

up to 0.79. Yeah we have these this

9:36

bit into the sample size into the

9:38

pot but the probability of a team

9:41

scoring a goal from a situation where

9:43

the cross has been deflected onto the

9:45

top of someone's arm doesn't

9:47

feel like a good translation from that infringement to

9:49

the awarding of the penalty. Yeah and it can

9:52

be in a situation where they may be not

9:54

even looking to take a shot in the next

9:56

couple of actions as well and I think that

9:58

John's piece gave that example. of Bernardo

10:01

Silva kind of going away from goal

10:03

but obviously being in the penalty

10:05

area that there was very little chance, maybe 2%

10:07

or 3% chance of

10:09

him scoring or Manchester City scoring in the next

10:11

couple of actions. Then you get given a penalty

10:13

because I think Granite Zjakka brought him down and

10:15

then you suddenly go from a 2% chance to

10:17

a 78% chance of

10:20

scoring within the next action. It just doesn't quite

10:22

feel right and John gave some creative

10:24

ways of sort of the alternatives that could

10:26

be for a penalty. My one on that

10:29

note is that it's maybe

10:31

not quite as controversial as John's which was maybe suggesting

10:33

to go to the old school MLS

10:36

way of starting on the halfway

10:38

line and running towards the keeper.

10:40

But I think one that could be

10:42

actually quite reasonable is that a bit

10:44

like Rugby, the minute the player starts

10:46

to step forward in a normal penalty

10:48

situation, the goalkeeper is allowed to maybe

10:50

move off the line and somewhat charge

10:52

them down. It could be a bit more

10:54

of a leveler whereby the penalty taker

10:57

is still in control where they could maybe take

10:59

two steps, they've still got the contribution, it would

11:01

stop maybe the fact that they could take 10,

11:04

12 steps and absolute leather at a goalkeeper who's

11:06

kind of having to be rooted to the spot

11:09

or at least have one foot behind the line.

11:11

So I think there's still scope for

11:13

sort of rule changes in the next few years on

11:15

this. I've not got as refined

11:17

solutions as Mark. I think I've seen stuff about

11:19

possibly moving it back to say like 15 yards

11:21

or giving it on a radius

11:23

point where you can say it doesn't necessarily be in the

11:26

sense of the goal, maybe it's from somewhere like they do

11:28

in Rugby right when they score the triets, from in line

11:30

with where the foul is. So if you get fouled in

11:32

between the post then fair enough. But

11:34

there's also a point that I think it

11:37

probably is becoming a bit

11:39

wildly overpowered now because of the rates at which players

11:41

are scoring. I guess that might be a goalkeeper aspect

11:43

too but it does also

11:45

in part need to be

11:47

somewhat overpowered because otherwise there's

11:49

no reason for defenders not to just kick players. I've

11:51

seen solutions where people say well they should just get

11:53

a free kick from wherever they were fouled in the

11:55

box but then you get into a situation where defenders

11:58

will just no

12:00

upflides in the attackers, you want it to

12:02

be an attack on any sport because people

12:04

still want goals and flow and attacking moves.

12:06

So I guess there's a balance

12:08

to be shocked to not overcorrect who found the opposite direction.

12:10

That's all I'd say. I mean, part of the

12:13

problem is that the penalty box shouldn't really be a

12:15

box. Right. If you were drawing the lines now, you'd

12:17

obviously have a curved line as

12:19

the D is, as the centre circle is.

12:21

And originally the penalty box was just a straight line

12:23

all the way across the pitch

12:26

and then it was made into a box.

12:28

So yeah, there are obviously corners of the

12:30

box where, you know, the XG is

12:32

low, the XT is low, but

12:34

the probability of winning a penalty is

12:36

probably quite high. And in a way I think

12:38

that it is a bit

12:40

overpowered as Lim says, but that's kind of part of

12:42

the game and it makes it, to a

12:44

certain extent, it makes it a little bit like sports

12:47

like rugby or basketball weight. You

12:49

literally have two different points you

12:51

can go for because winning

12:53

a penalty is 0.85 of a goal.

12:55

And so I think in a way we,

12:59

you know, you just have to factor that into

13:01

the equation and you can take it a step

13:03

further. And I looked up the stats of players

13:06

going back to 2016 onwards, the players

13:08

who've won the most penalties and

13:11

Raheem Sterling's way out in front. He's won 20

13:13

penalties in that time. No one else has won

13:15

more than 15. So convert that into,

13:17

yeah, 0.85 and that's 16-17

13:20

goals. It is a skill. It

13:22

is, you know, really valuable to the team. They

13:25

should be measured as assists, I think, because they

13:27

are probably the highest quality chance you can create.

13:30

There's an interesting one this season where Jarpedro

13:32

for Brighton's won five penalties in all competitions,

13:34

which is comfortably the most of any Premier

13:36

League player and he's then scored all of

13:38

them himself. He's got a perfect record from

13:40

the spot. So as Michael was saying, it's

13:42

suiting those technical players where he's able to

13:44

chop away from defenders or sort of go

13:46

on a dribble. And it

13:48

sort of links back to John Muller's piece, I think, where

13:51

I believe there's a vision there that shows sort of a

13:53

heat map of where penalties are won and the

13:55

highest portion of them is just literally just inside

13:57

the box. It's on the sides, in the half-spaces.

14:00

It's in those positions where it's

14:02

classic almost like five or side speak of the,

14:04

you know, don't foul, stand up. You

14:07

know, because there's such little upside to you

14:09

risking the tackle because the chance of you

14:12

winning it are going to give such a

14:14

disproportionate chance that yeah, you don't even want

14:16

to engage in that situation. So I'd be

14:18

all for a revision of the box and

14:20

damns, the shape of it into the arc.

14:23

Flipping out his head as well, you think for the defenders, if

14:26

they are, if the attacking player is just entering

14:28

into the box. You think I'd

14:30

obviously encourage them to have their XG hat on

14:32

and say they're running into an area that's

14:34

a 0.04 chance of scoring here. Just

14:40

stay here because the likelihood is knowing

14:42

expected threat and expected goals. There's very

14:44

little chance of them actually doing anything

14:46

from here, but then obviously if

14:48

they bring them down, they're the ones who are

14:50

in control of whether or not they bring them

14:52

down. Humbles are quite a tough one at the

14:54

moment as we've just spoken about, but you know,

14:56

maybe on the duty of the defender, they know

14:58

what the probability is themselves or they should

15:00

know it more and they can

15:03

use that information to their advantage. Yeah,

15:05

it's such an interesting discussion because part

15:08

of me feels that reducing

15:10

the probability of penalties being scored would

15:13

be a good thing because of this overpowered

15:15

nature of them, but then we would see

15:17

more penalties, no doubt. As Leah mentioned, defenders

15:19

would start taking it as

15:21

a better option at times as well.

15:25

In terms of this season and

15:27

the officially insane conversion rate, are

15:30

there any particular theories on why it might

15:32

have had such a spike this season? I

15:34

think the first thing to say is that the

15:37

high conversion rate this season is

15:39

both an outlier and also part

15:42

of the general pattern. We

15:45

don't expect it to continue to be 91%

15:48

for the rest of the season, but when you look at

15:50

the data over the Premier League years, in

15:52

the 90s it was usually about the 70% mark, then

15:55

it crept up to the high 70s and now

15:57

for most of the last few seasons it's been

16:00

above 80%. So this is a

16:02

bit of an anomaly but yeah it fits into the

16:04

overall trend as well. We touched upon it before in

16:06

terms of the age of VAR, the referees

16:09

and the VAR hub

16:11

so to speak are so hot on making

16:13

sure that the goalkeepers do have a foot

16:15

behind the line and they're not afraid to

16:18

allow the penalty to be retaken if the

16:20

goalkeeper does go over the line. With my

16:22

Liverpool hat on as well, Jersey Dudec's stride

16:24

towards Andrea Pirlo in the Champions League final

16:26

would have been completely struck

16:28

off without a doubt for that because there's

16:30

been so many across history where we've seen

16:33

it happen when they're supposed to

16:35

sort of keep their feet behind the line but now

16:37

in the age of VAR where it's

16:39

down to the millimeters we're seeing

16:41

the advantage go even more towards

16:43

the penalty taker because the the

16:45

goalkeeper has... it's so hard to be able

16:48

to drive off, I'd love to be able to speak to a

16:50

goalkeeper about this but it's so hard to be able to spring

16:52

forward and across with such little

16:54

margin that you are then probably

16:57

taking a couple of percent let's

16:59

say three or four percent which is then going to increase

17:01

the XG to maybe around the

17:03

80s rather than sort of the mid 70s

17:05

so it's no coincidence I think that in the age of

17:07

VAR the XG and the quality of

17:10

the conversion has gone up. This is a slightly

17:12

niche point on it, the summer

17:14

I looked at and actually did my undergraduate

17:16

dissertation on this and it's the difference in

17:18

terms of keepers facing left footers versus right

17:20

footers. There's sort of research in

17:23

other sports that shows that the... and it's true

17:25

sort of in penalties as well some studies find

17:27

mixed things but it's obviously the one thing in

17:29

football that we can actually generally analyze on an

17:31

academic level and it's so repeatable

17:33

and controllable. The lower proportion of left footers

17:35

means that naturally keepers face more right footers

17:37

so they learn predominantly the angles

17:39

and the tendencies of where they like to place it and

17:42

they primarily learn to read right footers so

17:44

they have a harder time predicting left footer penalties

17:46

when you look at the ways they dive if

17:48

they manage to touch the ball conversion rates tend

17:50

to be similar but you tend to get lefties

17:53

missing more than they have

17:55

penalties sort of saved and there's been a really

17:57

high volume of left footer penalty and goals this

17:59

season. season, 20 of the 41 have

18:01

been from left-footed players. Harland and Salah

18:03

have three each, Karl Palme has got

18:06

four, Odegard has two, Saka's got two,

18:08

and Boimos got three, Luca

18:10

Pacattar and Fabio Vieira both have one as well.

18:13

So that's almost up to 50% and it's been

18:15

trending upwards from 23% last season, 22.6%

18:17

before, back to 14%,

18:22

8% and down as there was 5% in 2018-19, where

18:25

there were four left-footed penalty goals out of 84

18:27

and three of those were Salah, as long as

18:29

Matt Ritchie. I'm worried not to add

18:31

further numbers to that because I'm just trying to digest this, but I

18:34

looked at it since 2018-19 and just

18:36

to reiterate what Liam's saying, just how

18:38

many right-footed there are taking penalties in

18:41

the Premier League, 83%

18:43

of the penalty takers in that period. That is

18:46

quite striking, 83% are taken from

18:48

right-footed players. Well, I think

18:50

it's also quite interesting and goes back to what

18:52

Mark said about how goalkeepers now have to keep

18:54

their foot on the line and there's

18:56

VAR. In 2003, they changed the rules

19:00

so that before, goalkeeper had to be stationary.

19:02

Then they changed it so the goalkeeper could move along the

19:05

line if they want to. And

19:07

if you look at penalties from 2003-2004, most

19:09

notably the one van Nistrooy missed against

19:12

Arsenal, Jens Lemann's just like dancing

19:15

back and forth across the line and

19:17

I thought that would make it harder

19:20

for the penalty taker to score but it didn't really have

19:22

much impact at all and of course, no one does

19:24

it anymore. But if you go back to those one

19:26

or two seasons, it just looks

19:28

mad what goalkeepers are doing because sometimes they're like just to

19:30

the left when the penalties are taken. It's

19:33

bizarre. It's almost like a kind of crazy goal

19:35

version of the penalty kick. Yeah,

19:37

I think that's a good move. Well,

19:39

a moment for penalty taker and goalkeeper.

19:41

That's the three points, best

19:44

of each, fierce rivals, best

19:47

to go top of the premiership

19:49

tonight. The

19:51

responsibility rested, ruled van

19:53

Nistrooy. Oh, yes,

19:56

he has put the ball.

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21:18

You've worked closely with goalkeepers in the past.

21:20

Has there ever been any discussion about how

21:23

much you should be moving on your

21:25

line to try and give yourself a

21:28

bit more energy in your spring or

21:30

as a distraction technique? As Michael suggests,

21:33

you don't really seem to see it anymore. No,

21:35

I think Emi Martens is obviously one that comes

21:37

to mind for being quite animated, particularly compared to

21:40

Larissa in that World Cup final and going back

21:42

to the Copa America as well. They had a

21:44

shooter, I think, in one of the knockout rounds

21:46

there. It depends on who the

21:48

goalkeeper is, their personality. I think that there are

21:50

some that really like that side of it and

21:53

some that do want to engage and

21:55

be like that and be verbal and

21:57

confrontational. And I think you can very quickly.

22:00

who comes to him naturally and

22:02

authentically because these are pressure situations and look

22:04

when I was coaching I was working with

22:06

youth goalkeepers so these aren't even fully formed

22:08

adults so I think it's even harder for

22:10

them to put on a

22:12

mask of being performative like that and

22:14

you see it very clearly with someone like Emi

22:17

Martinez that he just looks like he loves it

22:19

and playing that almost like a villain role. They

22:22

will do a lot of work now even when

22:24

the coin toss gets made wanting to be the

22:26

team that's closest to the dugout so that you

22:28

can show instructions and change things having

22:30

control on whether you take first or you

22:32

take second, who gives the ball to the

22:35

player just trying to control and make almost

22:38

scientific that build up and that

22:40

approach so I guess yeah the

22:42

best goalkeepers now can be disruptive as well but

22:44

equally they'll be good penalty saving

22:46

goalkeepers that can just sort of stand on their line and

22:48

not say anything and just you know they

22:51

can be successful because that's their way

22:53

of defending the goal. Michael it's amazing

22:55

how these

22:58

new techniques of

23:00

managing penalty shootout situations particularly

23:03

for the taker have

23:06

changed and like massively

23:08

over the last few years to the point where now there's

23:10

a load of stuff that is almost a

23:13

complete given if you're looking out for

23:15

it that again maybe even five years ago

23:17

wasn't seen much one of

23:19

them and the most notable for me is that is the

23:21

deep breath too deep breath

23:23

before you stand and take your penalty.

23:26

Yeah I remember first reading about that

23:28

in a book Ben Littleton wrote all

23:30

about penalties which was very

23:32

interesting the whole book's very good and that I

23:34

mean whenever I've watched a shootout since then probably

23:36

a bit of confirmation bias but I'm sure the

23:39

player who goes quickest after the whistle blows is

23:41

always the one who misses

23:43

it seems to happen every shootout. That's an

23:45

academic thing that's been looked at. Slightly

23:47

dated research now I think but the

23:50

internal sort of player controlled rates of

23:52

weighting at penalties and how quickly they

23:54

run up or how long they take

23:56

hence the deep breaths is linked to

23:59

missing it more. or not scoring more when you do

24:01

run up quicker. And I believe that was one

24:03

of the things that was attributed to England in

24:05

previous major tournaments, that when they would miss penalties

24:07

and shootouts or in games, they were the quickest

24:09

as soon as the whistle goes, the

24:12

sort of run up. So you do sort of get that

24:14

period where you go, I guess almost

24:16

knowing that as a player, now you go, if I

24:18

can wait five to 10 seconds, I'm more likely to

24:20

score that. To me, I don't know if I'm not

24:22

a player, but that has to be a confidence boost

24:25

to know that that means you're in more control. Yeah,

24:27

it's probably worth speaking about Ghia Jourday here, who's a

24:29

psychologist who's done loads of what we might have mentioned

24:31

before, he's done loads of work about scanning. We've

24:34

covered quite a lot of his work on site. And he

24:37

basically looked at every penalty

24:39

in the World Cup across

24:41

the past 50 years. He's been working

24:44

on it sort of relentlessly on this.

24:46

And he's covered a lot of different topics,

24:48

but this sort of thing is one of

24:50

them. He spoke a lot about the perception

24:52

of control and especially in

24:54

such a high pressure situation. This is probably

24:56

more to do with penalty shootouts, but

25:00

that deep breath of being completely in control and

25:02

knowing that I will take this penalty when I

25:04

want to take this penalty, not the minute the

25:07

whistle blows. Perception of control, and

25:09

he spoke about the theory of compensatory

25:11

control to know that when you're

25:13

feeling in a heightened state of stress and

25:15

anxiety as humans, we tend to

25:17

try and control the controllables. And it's all

25:20

those things that go with it. And it's

25:22

something which we have seen more commonly because

25:24

there's been more appreciation, more understanding of psychology

25:27

in general, and there's more psychologists

25:29

who work with clubs and international

25:32

football teams. So it's this increase of this perception

25:34

of control, which I think links really nicely and

25:36

the work that he's done more broadly. I'd encourage

25:39

people to give it a read because there's so

25:41

much that we could go through there. And

25:43

there's also the area where I think you

25:45

and I, Ali, have influenced the game heavily.

25:48

Because as probably mentioned before on

25:51

this podcast, Ali

25:53

did a lot of the French research for my

25:55

book about European Football's owner marking. And

25:57

one of the things that he found in his many...

26:00

French language books he went through is

26:02

that when France got a penalty against Portugal in Euro

26:04

2000 Portugal went mad because they didn't think it was

26:06

a penalty and France did this thing where Robert Perez

26:09

took the ball as if he was going to take

26:11

the penalty the Portuguese player all tried

26:13

to put him off and then he gave it to Zidane,

26:15

Zidane took the penalty. Now we've seen that a hell of

26:17

a lot in the last three or four years but

26:20

I when I read this I don't think I'd

26:22

ever heard of it before and you actually can't

26:24

see it on television because they're focusing on the

26:27

you know the replays or whatever but

26:29

I'm sure it's only come into fashion since

26:32

the publication of this book so I mean

26:34

this like I'm kind of joking when I

26:36

say this if anyone can find any examples

26:38

between 2000 and 2019

26:40

of this kind of false

26:43

penalty taker I'm really

26:45

intrigued about it because I'd never heard of it before

26:47

and now it's like seems to happen the majority of

26:49

the time. Well it was a pleasure to work with

26:51

you on something quite so groundbreaking.

27:00

The goalkeepers they are studying more and more

27:02

and more you know and

27:04

I think taking a penalty

27:07

is getting harder and

27:09

harder the game is

27:11

changing you know the goalkeepers they

27:14

are getting better and better and

27:16

faster so at some point I

27:18

felt that okay

27:21

I need another option. One

27:23

relevant piece of content that

27:26

sort of runs alongside this

27:28

podcast is the excellent interview

27:30

with Arsenal's Giorginio on the

27:32

athletic football podcast feed from

27:34

earlier this week and Giorginio

27:37

of course has taken a lot of

27:39

penalties he's taken them in a very

27:41

notable way with that hop technique he

27:44

has both scored a lot of penalties

27:46

and missed a couple of quite big

27:48

ones too so it's really interesting to

27:50

hear him talking about penalties particularly when

27:52

we're talking Liam about conversion

27:55

rates going up certain

27:57

rule change is benefiting the taker. But

28:00

Giorgino makes a fair point which is hard

28:02

to argue with that goalkeepers

28:04

are now better They are

28:06

more athletic, you know Physical

28:09

performance is improving not only that they

28:11

are better prepared than ever before and

28:13

we often see Notes on the water

28:15

bottle and post-match interviews where they say

28:17

I've watched every penalty that all of

28:19

these guys had ever taken And

28:22

in that sense Giorgino, I think was suggesting

28:24

that he feels it's getting harder for the

28:26

taker. Well, it's like any sort of tactical

28:29

benefit that you get in football that comes around

28:32

in some form of cycle that Keepers

28:34

are now as you said becoming more prepared And

28:37

the thing with Giorgino is he is often

28:39

taking penalties and what academics will call a

28:41

goalkeeper dependent method so he's relying on the

28:43

goalkeeper diving one way and committing early or

28:47

Not being prepared to just stand up to I think Pickford

28:49

was a great example We're in that Euro shoot up where

28:51

he did stand off a long time and dives really late

28:54

Because he wants to go with the goalkeeper to commit so

28:57

he can score the other way that that's his way Whereas

28:59

you'll get other players I think it's probably more most

29:01

others we're taking where he takes the penalty almost

29:04

if the goalkeeper isn't there You

29:06

know Harry Kane is another example A

29:08

lot of the time at times he'll switch it

29:10

up But that trademark came where he runs up

29:12

and he goes across the keeper's right to his

29:14

left into the side netting That's a goalkeeper independent

29:17

penalty You call it because you're taking it just

29:19

to score repeatedly the same way every single time

29:21

I think if keepers know that you want to

29:23

that becomes that a mind game, right? Because Giorgino

29:25

probably could do the Harry Kane technique He said,

29:28

you know, I think every professional footballer can score

29:30

every kind of penalty now. It's not a technique

29:32

thing It's not like free kicks or another part

29:34

of the game so

29:36

yeah, if you know keepers and teams

29:38

now know he's going to do that, then it's just a

29:40

case of finding other ways of then Take

29:43

the hop out you run up a bit differently

29:45

because again The run-up isn't just about

29:47

having a way to try and to try and score

29:49

But it's also about the body language what you do

29:51

or don't communicate and this research that

29:53

I've looked at that Going across

29:55

the goalkeeper tends to do a bit more readable because

29:58

you close yourself off a bit earlier. You're running One

30:00

tends to be, I think, a bit narrower, so that

30:02

can be a bit more obvious, but then the upside

30:04

is generally, you can get a bit more power. And

30:06

of course, if you keep your hips open, you have

30:08

the chance to go keep a side or you can

30:10

still reverse it as soon as you close off, then

30:13

you're sort of forced to go one way. I

30:15

was looking into that goalkeeper-dependent strategy and

30:18

looking at the research on it, there was some work

30:20

done at the University of Portsmouth about this. And

30:23

the argument from the researcher was that it is,

30:26

I was going to say arguably, it is

30:28

harder to do the goalkeeper-dependent method of looking

30:30

to see what the goalkeeper is doing, reacting

30:32

to what they're doing and then executing your

30:35

shot because it's a dual task.

30:37

You've got to watch what they're doing, watch what you're

30:39

doing, making sure that you get a good contact on

30:41

the ball rather than the goalkeeper-independent strategy, which is just

30:43

to leather it or just make

30:45

sure that you've got your technique really, really good. I'm

30:48

going to name drop here and say that when I was

30:50

speaking to Alan Shearer, because

30:52

I actually did a piece last season

30:55

about this and the penalty

30:57

technique and he said that in training in

30:59

the lead-up to each match day, he told

31:02

the reserve goalkeeper where he was going to go and

31:05

still tried to do it. So that is the

31:07

goalkeeper-independent sort of strategy to make sure that the

31:09

classic there's no goalkeeper can save that sort

31:11

of method because there is obviously a spot

31:14

which is almost unsavable and that was his

31:16

method of doing it rather than depending

31:18

on what the goalkeeper is going to do. But as

31:20

we discussed, both had their merit.

31:23

The most impressive player in

31:25

terms of sending the goalkeeper the wrong way

31:28

was Mark Noble. There

31:30

was a fantastic Twitter

31:32

account and blog called penalty kickstat,

31:34

which sadly no longer updates,

31:36

but had a wonderful database where you could look

31:38

up any player and look at all their statistics.

31:41

And I'm not quite sure how many of Noble's

31:43

penalties were logged on

31:46

this site, but overall he scored 28

31:48

penalties in the Premier League. He was

31:50

very successful and the stats on that

31:52

website have only 13% of the time the goalkeeper

31:56

went the right way, which is incredible.

32:00

like a hot penalty, he wasn't someone who really

32:02

obviously waited, but 13%, you'd have

32:04

to think that

32:07

he just perfected the art of waiting for the

32:09

goalkeeper because I actually went back and looked at

32:11

all his penalties, not for this pod,

32:13

this was a few years ago. Just fun. And I

32:15

mean, the goalkeeper never gets

32:17

near any of them. It's not just that

32:19

he scored a very high percentage, it's

32:22

that it's always like five yards away

32:24

from the goalkeeper. He was absolutely incredible.

32:26

Maybe that's just pure statistical variance and

32:29

luck. If you flip a

32:31

coin a million times, maybe at some point

32:33

there'll be a run of whatever it

32:35

would need to be 17 out of 20 heads. And

32:38

of course, he's one of the few players in

32:40

Premier League history who's been brought on specifically to

32:43

take a penalty, which was David Tejaya, who hadn't

32:45

saved his previous 28 penalties or

32:47

something. And of course, Tejaya saved. Remember that thing

32:49

in a Spurs Leicester game as

32:51

well, I think Vardy came on at Wembley

32:53

and got brought on there, maybe one or

32:55

down and had a penalty. I think Louris

32:57

actually saved it or he missed it. So

32:59

players, and

33:01

this is something I spoke to some

33:04

professionals actually for the dissertation

33:06

when I wrote it to get some really

33:09

to help me shape the metrics that I was

33:11

using for it. And there was a really valuable

33:13

quote I took away from it. And I won't

33:15

name drop because it's anonymity in this kind of research.

33:17

But he said that the first couple I took, I

33:19

was really, really nervous. I was so desperate to score

33:22

that I changed my mind last minute. Ever since

33:24

then, I've just picked away and just hit it. So

33:26

I think we need to appreciate that there's

33:29

so much science and research that goes into this

33:31

now. I mean, hence a mug like me writing

33:33

10,000 words on this sort of topic. But

33:35

you're still working with human beings that want to

33:37

operate in a certain way. And for some people,

33:39

they just can't or don't want to function. If

33:42

you say to them, you need to try and

33:44

turn this into a mind game in a battle

33:46

that they want to just know, I've got a

33:48

routine, I'm going to run up and hit it

33:50

this way. And so for certain players, I, Georgina,

33:52

who clearly is at the very top of the

33:54

game, not just technically, but also psychologically, and obviously,

33:56

you can't see players psychologically, I guess it just

33:58

doesn't work for everyone. Well, my role as

34:00

a data analyst is to strip out all the human element

34:03

and just on the facts. But

34:05

I think this is a good opportunity to speak about where

34:07

the best place is to place a

34:10

penalty statistically. And I

34:12

looked into some research on this. There

34:14

was a 2020 study and it

34:16

looked at penalty kicks from the 2009-10 to the 2018-19 Premier League

34:21

season. They looked at all penalty kicks,

34:23

952 of them. And

34:26

the study revealed that the penalty

34:28

should be directed towards the top

34:30

vertical zone of the goal to

34:32

optimize the opportunity for success. And

34:37

it links to the goalkeeper side of it

34:39

as well because the goalkeeper has such a

34:41

bias to move either left or right that

34:43

then statistically speaking you go where they've moved

34:45

from, i.e. the center of the

34:47

goal. So yeah, across quite

34:49

a wide range of seasons,

34:52

952, big old sample, it said

34:54

that the advice would be to practice

34:56

this more. And we don't really, I

34:58

don't feel like we really see it

35:00

all that often considering it makes complete

35:02

sense backed up by research. I think

35:04

maybe Harry Kane does it a few times.

35:06

Callum Wilson I think does it quite often to go down

35:08

the center of the goal. But it's crept in a little

35:11

bit more commonly. But in the grand scheme of things, I've

35:13

not seen it as much as it

35:15

maybe should be executed. Yeah, there's a similar, there's

35:17

a great video on YouTube from the University of

35:20

Bath by someone called Dr. Ken Bray who, like

35:22

the research Mark's referencing, it's called How to Take

35:25

the Perfect Penalty. And he basically terms it as

35:27

this sort of goal-swearing envelope where the

35:29

top corners of the goal are the best places

35:31

to put it and the very,

35:33

very bottom corners are the other

35:36

best places because if you hit it hard enough

35:38

and accurately enough, unless the keeper goes

35:40

really, really early, just the sheer reaction time and

35:42

the ball speed, they just can't get across the

35:44

goal quickly enough. But it's also interesting that we

35:46

talk about keepers going left and right a lot.

35:49

No one really speaks about whether they dive high

35:51

or dive low. And it's not

35:53

really something that I think ever gets considered

35:55

in, you know, they're always going

35:57

to pick the side first and then it's going to be a case of well,

36:00

Do you have one arm that goes low if you do guess

36:02

correctly? Do you have one arm that goes high if the trading

36:04

legs are sort of trying to stop anything down the middle? And

36:07

that rate of standing up, I think I looked at a study that

36:09

said it's about 6 or 7%. It's

36:12

really, really low because there's a big action bias in it

36:14

and it probably comes to the point we made about defenders

36:16

at the start of making

36:18

tackles when the attacking situation

36:20

isn't actually going to be as valuable

36:22

as what the penalty would be because they probably feel

36:24

a need to and want to do something. Otherwise, if

36:26

you get someone to pass you and they score, then

36:29

you go, the goal is going to continue anyway and

36:31

it's my fault. If I make an attack when it

36:33

goes slightly wrong, when I try to do my job

36:35

and defend and keep, I guess will say the same,

36:37

if I stand up and they roll it to one

36:39

side, I haven't done anything. I don't want to be

36:41

looked at as either a

36:43

shirking responsibility or not doing anything.

36:46

Well, there's certainly been that discussion in recent

36:48

years. Why don't more goalkeepers stand still,

36:50

stand up tall in the centre of their

36:52

goal because it feels like more players are

36:55

going down the middle and often lifting it

36:57

slightly as well so that if a

36:59

goalkeeper does dive, their trading legs can't stop

37:02

the ball on their way. But

37:06

action bias, I think, is what Liam is,

37:08

is the term that he's using, is not

37:10

wanting to look stupid by standing up and

37:13

the ball just being popped in the corner

37:15

and it looks like you haven't, outwardly

37:18

it looks like you haven't tried to do something but

37:20

of course you have. I made a decision just

37:22

as you would if you were diving in the corners. What

37:24

I'm interested in that Liam just brought up is with

37:29

goalkeepers choosing to dive high or low and they

37:31

do pick a size, is I don't

37:34

know if technically diving higher is

37:36

harder than diving lower. I

37:38

also think it looks worse

37:41

if you dive the right way and the ball goes under

37:43

you than it does if you dive the right way and

37:45

the ball goes over you. Everyone

37:48

accepts if a penalty is in the top corner even

37:50

if you've gone the right way. There's not much you

37:52

can do about that but if you go high and

37:54

it goes under the body, again it looks worse. It's

37:56

jarring to look at, right? I guess it's also because

37:59

you can accept that. the player goes to the very

38:01

top corner, they're bringing in the element of being

38:03

prepared to miss it, they're going, I'm going to

38:05

make this so you're not getting anywhere near it,

38:07

either it's going in or it's going over the

38:09

bar and there's been some impenetrable shootouts. I think

38:12

Maguire is in Euro 2020 where some players you

38:14

think, there's a real brave element to that from

38:16

the players perspective where you go, look, this is

38:18

going to go completely top corner or I'm going

38:20

to be completely embarrassed by it. So there has

38:22

to be the gravitation element to it that I

38:25

think completely from static where keepers can't move, they

38:27

can't quickly shuffle across their line to get that

38:29

positive step to dive to get

38:31

high and obviously getting down. I

38:33

don't know if it's maybe going to change a bit now because I

38:36

think you get a lot of really, really big

38:38

keepers. I think there's certain ones that maybe suit

38:41

getting down lower more quickly. So maybe someone like

38:43

a pick could, there's just, I'm

38:45

not calling him a small wave, but I'm saying

38:47

there's less of his body than other keepers to

38:49

move so he can drop to the floor more

38:51

quickly. I've called him small. I'm not calling him

38:53

small, but there's less of his body. Brilliant. He's

38:56

a good penalty keeper. But the

38:58

McGuire example is interesting. Again,

39:00

flipping on its head to the penalty taker

39:03

and it's again, there's more research I've read

39:05

about the trade-off between power and placement where

39:08

in a similar way to how almost what's the

39:10

aesthetics look like, would you rather go at sort

39:12

of 100% in terms of the power of your

39:15

shot and have the risk of maybe getting it

39:17

off target. So the aesthetics are that you've not

39:19

even tested the goalkeeper or maybe go at 50%

39:22

power of your shot where it's more likely

39:24

to be on target, but there's probably more

39:27

likelihood like a Giorginio, more likelihood

39:29

that if the keeper does go the right

39:31

way, they save it. Again, it's choosing kind

39:33

of how you potentially want to go wrong

39:35

in this situation if or when it does

39:37

go wrong. I think rather than looking at

39:39

it as having a singular penalty and

39:41

from players I've spoken to they say like in

39:43

some national team camps that they will work on,

39:45

everyone needs to have one set penalty. So we

39:47

get into a shootout. We want everyone to be

39:49

able to take that one effort. But

39:52

I think for regular penalty takers, I'm

39:54

no liken them to kind of a

39:56

cricket bowler here or particularly a seam

39:58

bowler of having a variety of things.

40:00

So you've got your stock ball that you can deliver 80% of

40:03

the time. So if you're Harry

40:05

Kane, that's the left-left side netting going across

40:07

the keeper of the same run-up.

40:09

And then you get your variations. So you've got your

40:11

slower ball, your dink down the middle, or your slot

40:13

when the keeper dies. You know, you've got

40:15

the faster ball, or the full toss, you can go

40:17

into the top right corner and mix it up a

40:19

bit. But you know you've got that one way where,

40:21

okay, I can do this most of the time. And

40:23

obviously the most recent example, significantly for England, is where,

40:26

I don't know if he got the run-up run-up, or

40:28

tried to mix it up. When he missed against France

40:31

at the World Cup, having originally scored off of

40:33

his primary way. And it

40:36

feels like it can become quite a quick narrative

40:38

of, when a player misses after taking

40:40

one in the game already, that they should have taken

40:42

the same way again. I saw people

40:44

saying that Kane shouldn't have taken a second penalty,

40:46

that it's either bad from Southgate, or bad for

40:48

him. It's like, no, you always put your best

40:51

penalty take-around penalties. There's no way of

40:53

foreseeing that. So I wonder

40:55

then if it just becomes even more of a

40:57

psychological skill, having already got one. So

41:00

many great quirks to penalties.

41:02

Michael, I'm sure, and this

41:05

doesn't seem to exist now, but I'm sure when

41:07

we were a bit younger, there was a stage

41:09

where certain players wouldn't

41:11

take the penalty if they'd won

41:14

the penalty. Yeah, it was a

41:16

big thing at Arsenal, certainly, in the kind of Serie

41:18

A and Rio era, where they had various players who

41:20

took it. Piroz, Lauren, sometimes

41:22

stepped up. Yeah, there was

41:24

a theory that you were kind of a bit too hot-headed

41:26

if you'd just won the foul. The adrenaline. Haven't

41:30

heard of that for a long time, to be honest. I

41:32

think that'd be the complete opposite. I mean,

41:34

like, even more reason for me to take this. I've

41:36

just won it for us, so I should be the

41:38

one to take it. I

41:43

don't think we'll ever have

41:46

the historical records to be able to say

41:48

definitively who the best penalty taker of all

41:50

time is, but I'd like to bring up

41:52

Graham Alexander, who played an

41:54

incredibly long career, playing mostly in

41:56

the EFL, but did make it

41:59

to the... Premier League with Burnley. I

42:01

think when he made his debut in the Premier

42:03

League, he was one of the oldest ever debutants.

42:06

And he scored, and again, different sites

42:08

will give you ever so slightly different

42:10

numbers. But going on an

42:12

article written by the Lancashire Telegraph back in 2010,

42:14

at that stage he had scored 73 of 78,

42:19

which is a pretty remarkable 93.5%

42:21

conversion rate. And

42:26

his technique, we

42:29

haven't seen since. And I don't

42:32

really understand why. Maybe it's difficulty

42:34

level. But I don't know

42:36

if you guys can picture what I'm talking

42:38

about here. Michael, possibly the other guys, maybe

42:40

not. But essentially, Alexander would run up straight

42:43

behind the ball, quite a long run up as well. He

42:46

would run up at a decent lick. There was

42:48

no pausing, there was no slight of hand. But

42:52

he had three different ways

42:54

of striking the ball. And

42:56

that dictated which side he

42:58

went up, down the middle of course. So

43:01

he could, and often did go, sort

43:03

of top of his foot laces, straight down

43:05

the middle. Normally lifted it quite well. So that

43:07

was a very popular one for him. Keepers

43:09

always diving in that era. He

43:11

could go the outside of his right foot and

43:15

sort of spank it to the keeper's left,

43:17

to his right. And again, that worked very well,

43:19

because it's so unusual that someone would strike a

43:21

dead ball like that. But then he could also

43:23

do a really cute little, almost sort of close

43:26

his foot at the last minute and just pop

43:28

it, I think normally low, to his

43:30

left, to the keeper's right. And I just, I

43:33

mean, it's great if I'm watching Graham Alexander penalties. I wanted

43:35

to make sure that he was brought up. Because you

43:38

can't tell me that modern players who have better

43:40

technique, probably. Yeah, I think of the outside of

43:42

the foot one as the most common one. I

43:44

could be right, obviously don't have numbers on that.

43:46

But that, yeah, the only time I've ever

43:48

seen anyone take a penalty with the outside of their foot

43:50

and keepers couldn't read it, it seems.

43:53

Do you remember the viral Spanish

43:55

under 21 goal from about 2011? my

44:00

favourite penalty. Where he runs up

44:02

as if he's taking it right footed and

44:04

then his standing

44:07

foot stabs the ball

44:10

with his toe to the keeper's left

44:12

to the right hand side, which I think is

44:14

the only way you could possibly kick it, give

44:17

him the angle at which he's running up. And

44:20

I mean it's a fair penalty. It's my favourite

44:22

penalty of all time. The goalkeeper's rooted to the

44:24

spot. I'm going to do a Mark Kerry pop

44:26

quiz. I feel like Michael would

44:29

definitely know this. Two players in Premier

44:31

League history have scored a penalty with their non-dominant foot

44:33

or weak foot, if you want to call it that.

44:35

Can anyone name either of them? Yeah. I'll

44:37

take myself out of this one. I've got to say I

44:39

know this is like as a fact, I don't think I

44:41

would ever have guessed them if you give me 100

44:43

guesses. I mean I would, the sort

44:46

of obvious and maybe the obvious wrong answer is

44:48

Cathola. No, but it would make an

44:50

awful lot of sense. He's one of the

44:52

few, I try and keep a log of those who take

44:54

corners with both feet because I think that's about as cool

44:56

as it gets. Pretty more impressive than a penalty, right, you

44:58

figure, because you've got to kick it over a bigger distance

45:01

with a range. Can you give us

45:03

the answers? I kind of want to know what

45:05

they were doing. Bobby Zamora and Oberfemi Martens, which

45:08

Zamora was quite a bit too footed and a

45:10

great bullshiker. I don't know the games or

45:12

the context, but what a great skill to have. Maybe

45:15

that's the next frontier in overcoming. He scored a

45:17

penalty with both feet. Yeah.

45:20

What was it? Do you reckon he

45:22

just woke, you know, he had a month where he was

45:25

just feeling it a bit more on his right foot? I'm

45:27

waiting for players to do this now that when you go,

45:29

you know, what is an opposition team going to do

45:31

if, and he probably won't

45:33

ever do it because it's too much risk.

45:35

But if Harry Kane rocks up and takes penalty with his

45:37

left foot, if you're a keeper and you've prepared for 40

45:39

penalties or have many with his right

45:41

foot and he suddenly goes, I'm going to switch it up today.

45:43

There's definitely players I think could do that. And

45:46

it would throw everyone off completely and would be just, would

45:48

be great fun to watch. I think some people

45:50

would find it disrespectful in

45:52

a way that people don't find. Geronio Sullivan.

45:54

Yeah. Yeah, there's two. The game is the

45:57

game. I agree. I agree. I'm

45:59

all for it. Guys, I mean, we've talked

46:01

about so much and I dare say we could sit

46:03

in here for another couple of hours and keep expanding

46:05

on some of the things that we're talking about. But

46:07

it's time to finish and we

46:09

thank you guys very much for listening to

46:12

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