0:00

This is

0:01

Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday,

0:03

T Boy, Tuesday, December sixth, and

0:05

today's pod is the best

0:08

one yet? Yes, it is, Nick.

0:10

We got a t boy. Yaddis, don't fight

0:12

time, don't fight tigers, and don't fight

0:14

trends. Oh, and don't. fight our first story.

0:16

What is our first story, Jack? The first story

0:18

is the fastest growing cocktail stock

0:20

in the history of the world. It's the

0:22

express so martini because the

0:24

espresso martini is the

0:26

perfect gateway product.

0:29

For our second story, college football

0:31

just made its biggest change ever, but that

0:33

comes with a big risk. Hey, Ralph. Can

0:35

we get a whistle on this thing? Dilution

0:38

on the offense, million dollar penalty,

0:40

repeat first time. And our third

0:42

and final story is Owens Corning. They

0:44

are beating the stock market right now by

0:46

insulating your upstairs. Grab a flannel

0:49

blanket. We just found a

0:51

pure play stock.

0:53

But before we hit that wonderful mix

0:55

yet, it's a fantastic mix check. I really

0:57

love this. It is not just December.

1:00

No yet is it. Is Santa

1:02

Raleigh season? Yes. You

1:04

are shopping for gifts. Yes. You're listening

1:07

to Mariah Carey. Well, Wall Street

1:09

is in a good mood too because it's

1:11

Wall Street's favorite time of year

1:13

too. Yet, this, during the

1:15

five weeks from Thanksgiving to New Year's

1:17

Eve, stocks jump Seventy

1:19

one percent of the time. seven out of ten

1:21

years stocks rise during

1:23

the holidays. Seventy one percent

1:25

of the time. We enjoy a Santa

1:28

rally. Yeah. Call Rudolph on the

1:30

Bloomberg terminal. We got ourselves

1:32

reindeer out. Between turkey feasting

1:35

and stocking stuffing, The Dow

1:37

typically rises by one point four

1:39

percent. Now, besties Jack and I jumped in

1:41

t boy style. It turns out that this

1:43

shocking trend goes back to

1:45

eighteen ninety six. One hundred

1:48

thirty years of stock market peace

1:50

and joy during the holiday. Charles Dickens

1:52

should have put down his Christmas Carol called

1:54

up his broker, Carol. Lisa,

1:57

can I have some more stock Just

1:59

one more share

1:59

price. The days get

2:02

short but the stock buying gets

2:04

lost. The snow pours down,

2:06

but the market pours up. Now, of

2:08

course, yeti's past performance is no

2:10

indication of future return Great point

2:12

Jack. The Grinch could still spoil

2:14

this year's Santa surge. What

2:16

else? They have 401 k's too.

2:18

Oh, missus

2:19

claws, she has some money soaked

2:21

away because she wants to buy a vacation pool.

2:23

So Nick and I, we got a reindeer rally

2:25

on our wish list. on Dasher, on

2:27

dancer, on Prince, or on Vixen.

2:30

They rained reality. You'd make

2:32

a stop, Shmitzer. Let's three stories.

2:34

Fifteen years before the song,

2:36

two boys from the Northeast met in the North.

2:38

They had an idea. It caused a cultural storm.

2:40

It's the best one yet, but the best north.

2:43

jack. That's it.

2:45

I don't even finish the practice. Fifty

2:48

percent. That's fat

2:49

tip. Tea boys city on your at

2:51

list. If you know you know because we've prayed

2:53

to go, we can't wait no more, so just

2:55

start the show.

3:01

For our first story, we

3:03

just found out the fastest growing

3:05

tail of the year. It's officially

3:08

the Espresso Martini.

3:10

Yeah. All the votes are in. And the Espresso

3:12

Martini is number one. Because

3:14

it's the go to drink of the cocktail,

3:16

curious. Okay. So, Jack, let's just whip this up.

3:18

Let's get right to it. People wanna know

3:21

one part simple syrup. two

3:23

parts clua, two parts

3:25

vodka, one part espresso.

3:27

Did you see what I'm doing over here? Then you add garnish?

3:29

You are doing it pretty well. You kinda look like Tom Cruise and

3:31

Cocktail. You're shake it, so it's chill.

3:33

And then you pour it into a martini bag. That

3:35

your form was fantastic, and I thought you stuck

3:37

the landing jack. There's no shake weight over here.

3:40

No. It's not yet. That is the original

3:42

recipe for the espresso martin.

3:44

It's a cocktail of contrast because

3:46

the espresso martinia, as you heard from those

3:48

ingredients, It's got caffeine

3:50

in. It's got vodka. It is both an upper

3:52

and it's a downer. In twenty twenty

3:55

two, the votes are in was the year

3:57

of the espresso Martinis. And the votes

3:59

are

3:59

your drink orders? Like research from

4:02

Nielsen tracked the orders of bars

4:04

across the United States, and they found

4:06

who's actually winning in the bars. Nielsen

4:09

found that the espresso martini surged

4:11

to the top ten of the most

4:13

ordered cocktails in the States this

4:15

year. It passed the Manhattan. Now Jack

4:17

and I we should sprinkle on a little context

4:19

here. Right? Jack, like, how's who's actually

4:21

number one when it comes to context? Let's sprinkle on

4:23

some salt around the room of that class. Yeah. The

4:26

is still America's number one cocktail

4:28

of choice. We should make that clear. But the

4:30

number of people who ordered an espresso

4:32

Martinis grew by

4:33

three hundred percent. And for all your

4:35

non mathematic students, that's

4:37

quadrupling

4:37

from the year before.

4:40

Hey, Granny's Pacliata. do you

4:42

like them apples? And this

4:44

espresso martini trend is actually reflected

4:46

in the stock market too because the

4:48

key ingredient Kalua is owned

4:50

by fifty billion dollar liquor

4:52

legend Pernod Ricard. The

4:54

stock for this liquor legend trades in

4:56

Paris and they just recorded sales

4:59

and record profits for this year. In fact,

5:01

thanks to the espresso martini. Per

5:03

no record the liquor stock, just

5:05

enjoy ten billion dollars

5:07

in revenues for the first

5:09

time in its century old history.

5:12

You ever had an espresso martini there? I'm

5:14

really more of a frappuccino guy. That's

5:16

an unacceptable answer. Yet

5:17

he's at a glance. This espresso

5:20

Martinis. It feels like it's powered

5:22

by two very obvious trends.

5:24

Cold coffees are at an all time high,

5:26

and liquor sales are also at an all

5:28

time high. So it kinda seems obvious. You

5:30

like mix your two top drinks into

5:32

one ultimate concoction and then you charge double

5:34

the price, not too shabby. But this

5:36

trend is deeper than that. Is François

5:38

Martini is also driven by

5:40

nostalgia? because the espresso martini

5:43

was born in the nineteen eighties before

5:45

Jack and I were born. And we're seeing a whole

5:47

bunch of nineteen eighties revivals

5:49

across all of pop culture. For

5:51

example, big hair it is in

5:53

right now. Dolls. Shopping malls

5:55

are back. Neon is a hot color

5:57

right now. Team at Turner. trending on

5:59

Spotify.

5:59

Super Mario is getting a movie.

6:02

Is it? He is. I

6:05

was drinking in his espresso so

6:07

yeti's coffee is trending, eighty's nostalgia

6:10

is trending. It would seem those would be the

6:12

main and only reasons for theespresso

6:14

Martini surge. But Nick

6:16

and I, we

6:17

think it's something even deeper.

6:19

And

6:19

that deeper happens to be

6:21

our takeaways. So Jack, what's the takeaway

6:23

for our buddies ordering a hey, five

6:25

ten to too expensive, my teeny's

6:27

place. Never underestimate the

6:30

gateway product. Alright. Yaddis, here

6:32

is the consumer challenge. You're

6:34

at the bar. The date is watching you. Everyone

6:36

else is watching you too. What

6:38

do you order? It's an intimidating

6:41

reputational risk moment for it

6:43

is. You're not gonna order a long island iced tea. Are

6:45

you a Jack? Are you gonna do a Jack and Coke and just look

6:47

at it a regular Jack? Don't tell me you're

6:49

ordering the beer you ordered in coffee. Jack, you're not

6:51

gonna order a Jack and Coke and then say, hey, my name

6:53

is Jack, so I had to order the Jack and Coke. Let's

6:55

just say the one time I ordered a me and Coke.

6:57

It didn't go well. Increasingly,

7:02

the cocktail curious are

7:04

ordering the espresso martini. They're

7:06

driving itself. And if you look closer at

7:08

that Nielsen data, people who ordered

7:10

espresso martini are disproportionately

7:13

not typical cocktail drink The

7:15

cocktail curious. They don't usually

7:17

order a drink. They don't know many drinks,

7:19

but they do wanna up their drinking.

7:21

And the espresso martini is an easy

7:23

way to do it. It's designed to be approachable

7:25

with a blueprint of relatability. Yep.

7:28

Because you already enjoy the main ingredient,

7:30

coffee. We drink it every day. And you already

7:32

ran recognize the format of the drink.

7:34

Martinis, that's a sophisticated way to

7:36

drink something. And this is also a way more sophisticated

7:39

option than the other up or down or drink. And what

7:41

is that? Jack, the Red Bull vodka. Don't

7:43

order that. The espresso martini removes

7:46

the friction. It's the top cocktail

7:48

of twenty twenty two. because it's

7:50

not just a cocktail. It's a gateway

7:52

product, helping usher the masses

7:54

into fancy cocktails.

7:58

For our second story,

8:00

college football is borrowing

8:02

a strategy from Disney. They're

8:04

launching a cinematic football

8:07

universe. But the risk

8:09

is that it borrows from college. Basketball

8:12

and suffers dilution. Jack,

8:14

let's turn to the whiteboard over here. The

8:16

x's and o's college football playoffs

8:18

just got set this weekend. Who you got?

8:20

Alright. We got Georgia Verso House Day on

8:22

the one side. Michigan versus TCU

8:24

on the other side. We're probably gonna end up with

8:26

Michigan versus Georgia again. Go

8:28

Blue Wolverine's win. I think what you're

8:30

missing here, Jack, though, is that we already have the winner

8:32

best mascot which goes to the TCU

8:35

Horned Frogs. Most

8:37

unusual scary mascot. That's for sure.

8:39

Texas Christian University the only

8:41

mascot that looks like a ninja turtle.

8:43

It was the only mascot raised by

8:45

Splinter. But yet he's, who's

8:47

actually the best college football

8:49

team? That question asked actually

8:51

goes back a hundred

8:53

and fifty three years.

8:55

We've been inconsistent in

8:57

deciding who is the best college football

8:59

team. Since eight teen sixty

9:01

nine, we've been indecisive. Back when

9:03

pig skins were literally a

9:05

pig's skin. Every other team sport

9:07

decides the champion through a playoff. but

9:09

not for division one college football

9:11

for summaries. Chiaco and you and I were

9:13

kids, coaches and sports writers, decided

9:16

who was the champion in a

9:18

poll for college football. When you and I became

9:20

teens, a computer decided the best

9:22

two college football teams, and then we had

9:24

one BCS championship game. And

9:26

then when you and I became adults,

9:28

Jack, a computer picked four teams

9:30

for the college football playoffs. And

9:32

that's what we have now.

9:34

But last week, we learned that the

9:36

college football playoffs is

9:38

going to triple in two years.

9:40

Yaddis, here's the news. Twelve

9:42

teams. Twelve teams will

9:44

now compete in the nationwide college

9:47

football play first time

9:49

since ever, going back to eighteen sixty

9:51

nine. Recap, from

9:52

eighteen sixty nine to nineteen ninety

9:55

seven, we

9:55

had zero playoffs and division one

9:57

college football. But in twenty

9:58

twenty four, we're gonna have

9:59

twelve teams, eleven games on

10:02

a four week long

10:04

college football tortimates. In

10:06

nineteen ninety seven, GoBlue, Michigan

10:08

was the national champion with a twelve

10:10

in o record. But starting in twenty twenty

10:12

four, a team could go seventeen

10:14

at all. The season is

10:16

gonna be that long.

10:18

Get this, the college football

10:20

championship season isn't gonna end

10:22

until January twentieth.

10:24

That's the middle of, like, pond

10:26

hockey season. That's the middle of

10:28

almost golf season, Jack.

10:30

Yeah. It is. If you see an

10:33

unnatural tradition busting

10:35

change to anything, there's one

10:37

one and only one reason why

10:39

that thing is happening. Money,

10:41

it always comes down to money. We didn't

10:43

get Star Wars episode seven, eight,

10:45

and nine because the story called

10:47

for it. there. Yeah. Lucasfilm wasn't

10:49

like, you know what? The integrity of

10:51

the story here really needs a few more

10:54

sequels. They resurrected the evil emperor. to

10:56

make more money. And that's what college Footballs

10:58

doing too. Yeah. This expanded

11:00

playoff format is expected to get this

11:02

more than double college

11:04

football's annual TV deal. That

11:06

means college football would bring in twice

11:08

as much as number two college

11:10

basketball. Jack, I'm sorry. just

11:12

bring on, maybe, found a a little more

11:14

context on this thing on a Hail Mary

11:16

Pass. With the playoffs, college football is

11:18

expected to bring two billion dollars

11:20

a year. in TV revenue, which

11:22

makes it half as valuable as the

11:24

NBA. Jack and I are looking at the

11:26

playbook here in college football. It

11:29

looks more like a pro sports league

11:31

than a college sports league. So

11:33

Jack, what's the takeaway for our

11:35

buddies over in football. When

11:37

you stretch out a franchise, you

11:40

risk dilution. Yet he's Jack

11:41

and I noticed that what's happening to college

11:44

football right now is the same thing

11:46

that happened

11:46

to Marvel comics and Star

11:49

Wars with Disney. Yeah. We've got

11:51

ourselves a cinematic football

11:53

universe coming in two years. The

11:55

NCAA is kind of giving people what they

11:57

want, you know, more games, more stuff to

11:59

cheer, more stuff to watch.

11:59

But the risk of this big move by the

12:02

NCAA is dilution. The

12:04

risk that college football gets

12:06

stretched so wide fans

12:08

lose intensity of their love. Like, what

12:10

happened with college basketball? No one

12:12

watches the regular season anymore because

12:14

it's all about March Madness and the big

12:16

tournament at the end. Or just like Star Wars.

12:18

There are so many spin off movies these

12:20

days. Love for Obi wan is

12:22

not as strong. College

12:24

football is getting stretched out by

12:26

another month to make more

12:28

money. And whether it's quarterbacks or

12:30

jettis, the risk is

12:32

dilution. Now,

12:34

a word about our sponsor, Robinhood. You know,

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honestly, you're

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salad. It says so

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much about you. Nick, you like to blaze

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ordering a sandwich. I go off menu, man. Like a

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combo of kale and croutons that has never

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been made before. Me, I'm not reinventing

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the wheel. I to go classic.

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your sweet Korean thinks it's a good combo, Jack's

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not gonna change that. Kinda like investing

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Crypto offered through Robin and Crypto. All investments

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involve By the this podcast is not owned or part of

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Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin

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Hood. For our

13:30

third and final story, Olin's

13:32

Cornings, sit shareholders, a

13:35

birthday check and a Christmas

13:38

present all at once. Two

13:40

huge accidents have made Owens

13:42

Corning. part of the climate solution.

13:44

Okay. So Jack, you and I have got a lot of a

13:46

lot of list going on. A lot of list going on. Maybe

13:48

my favorite list of ours right now. Here it is.

13:50

Here it is. our list of

13:52

accidental inventions. The first

13:54

one,

13:55

fire. Yeah. The cavemen

13:57

who invented than fire. That was in

13:59

total accidents. Let's hope it was a fortunate

14:01

accident and light himself on fire.

14:03

You know what I mean? Bob, you gotta feel this thing.

14:05

It's incredible. Another

14:09

incredible accidental invention.

14:11

The slinky. Another incredible

14:13

accidental invention, Jack, the post it note.

14:15

How about Plato?

14:16

how about the espresso Oh,

14:19

yeah. I heard a bartender fell

14:22

into a coffee machine. Boom.

14:24

Espresso martini. That is

14:27

another invention that was invented

14:29

by accident. Is the insulation

14:31

that keeps your home warm right

14:33

now? and that insulation is the

14:35

core business of Owens Corning.

14:37

An eight billion dollar

14:39

fortune five hundred insulation campaign

14:41

A hundred years ago, Owens

14:43

Corning was in the glass business, doing

14:45

bottles for whiskey, beer,

14:47

and wine. But then, prohibition literally

14:50

prohibited their biggest client,

14:52

the booze industry. They were still selling

14:54

to the milk industry. They were. They were good

14:56

points. What? The milk industry wasn't

14:58

big enough? Basically, Owens Corning had

15:00

to pivot in order to survive.

15:02

So they took all the glass bottles no

15:04

longer going to booze companies and

15:06

put it in walls instead because

15:08

the glass works for insulation too. Boom.

15:10

They just invented accidentally a

15:13

new thing. They invented insulation

15:14

Now today, their ten billion

15:17

dollar a year business stuff's glass

15:19

based insulation into the walls of

15:21

your hand. The other half of their business

15:23

is shingles. They're doing that on your roof to keep

15:25

your condo dry. So this company

15:27

is basically building the jacket

15:29

and the raincoat for

15:31

America's homes. Now here's what

15:33

Jack and I find fascinating about

15:35

this story. The housing market,

15:37

which is a women's core business,

15:40

is doing terribly right now. But

15:42

Owens Corning isn't doing terribly.

15:44

Yeah. Owens Corning stock is already

15:46

outperforming the rest of the market by

15:48

seventeen percent this

15:49

year. The CEO thinks their stock

15:51

is too cheap, so they announced a share buyback

15:53

of ten million shares.

15:54

And then, Jack and I noticed that they boosted

15:57

their cash dividend the amount they pay out to

15:59

shareholders by a whopping fifty

16:01

percent.

16:01

So shareholders are getting a birthday check and

16:03

a Christmas present even though the

16:05

housing market is frozen. Right? This

16:07

is what we could not understand at first.

16:10

People are not buying and they are not selling

16:12

homes because of mortgage rates are too high

16:14

and there's economic uncertainty. fortunately

16:16

for Owens Corning though, people are

16:18

still putting money into their existing

16:21

home. That's the key you're upgrading here,

16:23

you're insulating there, maybe a new

16:25

roof right now. let's get this in here,

16:27

people. We're seeing a lot of revenge

16:29

renovations happening in this real

16:31

estate market. renovating.

16:33

because if you can't be with the home

16:35

you love, honey. Love the home

16:37

you're with. By insulating the attic.

16:39

By finally insulating the

16:42

basement. By sticking some glass into

16:44

those walls. So Jack, what's the takeaway

16:46

for our buddies over at Olin

16:48

Corning? Shane your home's

16:50

climate changes climate change.

16:52

Yet is get this

16:54

combined. The heating and cooling of your

16:56

home and your office is actually

16:58

your biggest carbon footprint.

17:00

According to the Department of ENGIE, up

17:02

to forty percent of our greenhouse

17:04

gas comes from keeping our buildings warm in the

17:06

winter and cool in the summer. So, Jack,

17:08

what you and I are saying here is that once

17:10

again, Owens Corning has

17:12

succeeded, totally

17:14

by accident. Yeah. Their original

17:17

value proposition to customers, it would

17:19

save money on your energy

17:21

bill through insulation. But their new value

17:23

proposition is this, save the

17:25

planet through insulation. Their

17:27

marketing team pivoted their message

17:29

from save money to

17:31

save the planet and sustainability.

17:33

It's another pivot because changing your

17:35

home's climate changes

17:38

climate change.

17:39

Jack, can you

17:41

whip up the takeaways for us for t boy

17:44

Tuesday? Orders for espresso martinis

17:46

at the bar this year quadrupled.

17:49

It's not just a cocktail. This

17:51

is a gateway product. For

17:53

our second story, football has jumped

17:55

from no place. to two teams, to four

17:58

teams, and soon twelve teams.

18:00

Construction college football risks

18:02

diluting it just like Yoda warned

18:04

us. And our third and final story is

18:06

Owen's Corning. They're a down jacket and

18:08

a gourtex shell but for your home

18:10

because changing your home's climate

18:12

changes climate change.

18:14

Now time for the best fact yet,

18:16

this one

18:17

whipped up by Jackamy for all the

18:19

eddies out there. We told you

18:20

just a few minutes ago in the intro,

18:23

about the Santa surge. The reindeer rally.

18:25

The reindeer rally. How stocks tend to

18:27

go up over the holidays? Not too shabby.

18:29

We figured we'd explain why

18:31

that phenomenon happens. In the short answer,

18:34

we don't know. No one actually

18:36

really knows. It's really hard

18:38

to explain market movements in the whole

18:40

market. But there are some theories. For

18:43

example, one theory is that people get the bonus

18:45

check at the end of the year and then put that money in

18:47

the stock. or fund managers go on vacation

18:49

and click buy before they fly out to

18:51

Florida. Or it might just be New

18:53

Year's Optimism, or maybe you're buying some stocks

18:55

after getting that check from grandma. Hopefully, there's a

18:57

big chat. There's no full

19:00

clear reason that explains the

19:02

reindeer rally phenomenon. Which

19:04

kind of makes the

19:04

Santa rally like Santa to himself. You have

19:06

to

19:06

believe in the rally to see

19:09

the rally. And the best way to spread

19:11

Christmas cheer is to sing loud for

19:13

all to hear. Make it a We'll

19:15

see you tomorrow. And to all a good night.

19:23

And before we go happy one hundred and

19:25

ninetieth birthday through

19:27

Jonathan the tortoise, a giant turtle living

19:29

in the seashells islands. It's

19:31

not a race, John. Jonathan, it's

19:33

a marathon. Jonathan is a hundred and ninety

19:35

and the oldest living land animal

19:38

on Earth. And happy birthday to

19:40

little ten pans are down in

19:42

Montclair, New Jersey and a happy belated

19:44

birthday to Prasad down in

19:46

Orlando, Florida and happy eleventh

19:48

birthday to Charlie Vitivac in

19:50

Duluth, Minnesota. And Katie

19:52

Sosa's turning twenty five in

19:54

Boston just as I passed

19:56

happy, twenty seven years old to Nathan

19:58

Duval in Lancaster,

19:59

Pennsylvania. And Leroy Day is turning

20:02

twenty nine down in the

20:03

bookie down Bronx. Top Be one

20:05

month on this planet Earth to

20:07

Yulin Williamsong in Jersey

20:10

City.

20:12

This is Jack I own stock of Disney and

20:14

Nick and I both own stock of Spotify

20:16

and Robinhood.

20:17

Now, a word

20:19

about our sponsor Robinhood.

20:21

Okay. So Jack in both worked in finance for a while.

20:23

And we know the six monitor

20:25

Bloomberg jockey with charts, numbers,

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balances, and more charts. They got commas

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in both hands while their executing

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some complex trade on a soybean future. Well, we're not

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trying to impress with our mission control trading

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center. Just give us an app, please.

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Run Robinhood with its mobile first and intuitive

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design, it lets you trade to put just a few

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quick taps on their ass. And even if things

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still don't seem easy, Robinhood has your

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back twenty four with its live and robust customers

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apart. If you're not investing on Robinhood yet,

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to get started, go to robinhood dot

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com slash t boy and choose your free

20:55

stock. that's robinet dot com slash TB0Y limitations

20:57

upon robinet financial LLC, member SIPC

21:00

all investments involve risk. By the

21:01

way, this pod is not owned by

21:03

or part of Robinhood, and we are not

21:05

employees of Robinhood.