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Listening to the briefing First broadcast on the

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Twenty Seventh of February. Twenty Twenty Four on

1:00

Monica Radio. Hello

1:13

and welcome to the Breathing or live

1:15

from studio on here in Missouri House

1:17

in London. I'm Chris Turmeric coming up

1:20

on today's program. My last security adviser

1:22

tells me that we're close. We're close.

1:24

Not done yet. My hope is why

1:26

Next Monday House is why Joe Biden

1:29

claims a cease will be in place

1:31

in a matter of days for Gaza.

1:33

But would a temporary cessation of hostilities

1:35

even mean anything? After that, we'll be

1:38

looking at the deepening rift between Polish

1:40

farmers and Ukraine and will look at

1:42

Bosnia's hopes. Of joining the European

1:44

Union is still frustrating. Waiting for

1:46

more than twenty years to start

1:48

with negotiations regarding your membership or

1:50

it's not easy at all. We

1:52

also have the latest business news

1:55

and a roundup of what's making

1:57

the headlines in Southeast Asia or

1:59

that, right? The briefing acne?

2:01

Pathetic. If

2:09

there's a reason that the United States

2:11

was the only country to veto a

2:13

Gaza cease fire resolution in the United

2:15

Nations Security Council last week. It's.

2:18

Because Washington had insisted it would disrupt

2:20

the negotiations that were aimed at achieving

2:22

exactly this. Now, Us President Joe

2:24

Biden has said he's confident a

2:26

ceasefire deal will be in place by

2:29

the end of this week, in

2:31

time for Ramadan of more on this.

2:33

I'm joined by some vacuum Director

2:35

of the Middle East and North

2:37

Africa Programme at Chatham House. Problem. First

2:40

of all, just this discussion of only

2:42

a temporary cease fire over Ramadan. That's

2:44

that's what this is about. Correct Israel

2:46

is essentially vowing that they would still

2:49

finish the job. At

2:51

Yes in theory, add this

2:54

is being called a temporary

2:56

cease fire because there hasn't

2:58

been able to be a

3:00

broader longer agreement and I

3:03

think that's the hope is

3:05

that the temporary can be

3:07

made more permanent once there

3:09

is momentum. Am after

3:11

the hostages, the Israeli hostages or

3:14

really in the private Palestinian prisoners

3:16

are release an aide as delivered.

3:18

They're supposed to be reportedly at

3:20

five hundred trucks a day delivered

3:23

to Gaza, but there's no guarantee

3:25

of course that we will get

3:27

their i think that. There's

3:30

also deep sea or that

3:32

violence could escalate over the

3:34

month of Ramadan. The Biden

3:37

Administration really wants to contain

3:39

what could become a broader

3:41

regional conflicts or see violence

3:43

spread to Easter is some

3:45

in the West Bank as

3:47

so This is what's driving.

3:49

At these current negotiations. And.

3:52

What is your sense of the biggest

3:54

sticking points at the moment? Even for

3:56

a temporary ceasefire to come into effect,

4:00

Well I think are both

4:02

sides are are just trying

4:05

to finagle as much as

4:07

they can out of this

4:09

temporary cease. Perhaps looking for

4:12

an avenues to extend. The.

4:14

Deal to prevent what the

4:16

Israelis would like to go

4:18

ahead with a ground invasion

4:20

of Russia. and so. On.

4:23

Part of the negotiation. Ah, there

4:25

is a suggestion that displaced Palestinians

4:27

that have moved south to a

4:29

Lhasa as a result of the

4:31

bombing of the North will be

4:33

a permitted to go back. I'm

4:35

not sure what they're going to

4:37

go back to because the whole

4:40

area of course, is practically been

4:42

leveled. By.

4:44

To I think you know

4:46

that is certainly on that

4:48

the cards and in the

4:51

table there are also negotiations

4:53

about as second phase with

4:55

regards to. Management

4:58

and Security Of of

5:00

Gaza. Thinking about at

5:02

rehabilitating Palestinian institutions of

5:04

yesterday, the Palestinian Prime

5:06

Minister has put forward

5:08

his resignation and this

5:10

is part of a

5:12

broader. Package. And

5:14

and discussions where the international

5:16

community and the Us is

5:18

is looking to support a

5:20

transition that Palestinian leadership as

5:22

well. Were swollen

5:24

as you a kind of list

5:26

of those topics were. Some are

5:28

looking further forward than others and

5:30

you did touch on this of

5:33

the top but I just wonder

5:35

what your senses of whether a

5:37

temporary ceasefire that would be focused

5:39

on the hostages' getting paid back

5:41

into Gaza? Maybe fighting some kind

5:43

of solution for Rafa women would

5:45

have that in your mind kind

5:47

of create the space and time

5:49

for a permanent ceasefire? Where is

5:51

that wishful thinking. Well

5:54

this is really about

5:56

Israel and the international

5:58

negotiate there is which

6:00

include Qatar, Egypt but

6:02

more broadly my let

6:04

other Arab states of

6:06

finding an arrangement to

6:08

deal with Hamas leadership

6:10

that. Hundred. And forty

6:12

four days on in, this

6:14

war hasn't been fully decapitated.

6:18

And Israel's a proposal for

6:20

the management and security of

6:22

Gaza are very far off

6:25

from those being proposed by

6:27

Arab states and and the

6:29

United States. And the

6:31

Arab states very much want

6:34

to see a pass that

6:36

would lead to an irrevocable.

6:39

Palestinian. Statehood in the

6:41

West Bank, Gaza, and

6:43

East Jerusalem. Whereas Netanyahu's

6:45

proposals and don't look

6:47

to a recognizing Palestine,

6:49

there's been a bills

6:51

to the Israeli Knesset

6:53

obstructing that process. And

6:57

ah, Israel wants to keep Gaza

6:59

quite separate and manage the security

7:02

of Gaza. I'm on it's own.

7:05

While you you did touch on the

7:07

media is there and I was curious

7:09

if he could talk a little more

7:11

about that. Qatar? Egypt for us, I

7:13

mean Moon. Is there any sense that

7:15

these three countries what has their role

7:17

been I suppose. and could they force

7:19

some kind of resolution to this sore

7:21

at the end of the day? Is

7:23

it up to still Israel and Hamas

7:25

for that matter being able to agree

7:27

to something for but you know that

7:29

that some what works for both sides.

7:32

Certainly an. Israeli

7:34

leadership and Hamas are the key

7:36

decision makers at this point, but.

7:40

They both have vulnerabilities and

7:42

that we have to bear

7:44

in mind. Netanyahu is under

7:46

increasing pressure in his trying

7:48

to rehabilitate himself after probably

7:50

one of the grave as

7:52

security crises and Israel's history

7:54

and Hamas of course of

7:56

behind die a horrible October

7:58

seven to is responsible. For

8:01

at the destruction of Gaza

8:03

am the loss of life

8:06

and and certainly. Palestinians

8:08

have not had a chance

8:10

to express their views at

8:12

the ballot box in Palestine

8:14

for decades. Now About in

8:17

itself is this is a

8:19

challenge going forward and beyond.

8:21

At these two actors, Qatar

8:23

has played a very important

8:25

role in in trying to

8:27

separate the negotiations from their

8:29

contacts with Hamas in a

8:31

doll Hobbit. Also, more broadly,

8:33

they've been very important, as

8:35

has Egypt, which has security

8:37

concerns. Sharing. A

8:39

border with Gaza and having worked

8:41

with Israel of for my many

8:44

decades to manage security for Palestinians

8:46

there and Egypt has been under

8:48

significant pressure as well. have been

8:51

pressuring Israel to prevent a further

8:53

displacement of Palestinians in Gaza into

8:56

Egypt. So of their a lot

8:58

of dimensions here I think the

9:00

principal and key player though as

9:03

the United States that has given.

9:06

Benjamin Netanyahu's government a very

9:08

long leash and. Executing

9:11

this war by dad, time and

9:14

patience I think is coming to

9:16

an end with the U S

9:18

beginning to circulate a resolution at

9:20

the Un Security Council an hour

9:22

about a temporary cease fire as

9:25

well and and President Biden has

9:27

worked hard to support Israel categorically

9:29

while trying to prevent the conflict

9:31

from escalating and becoming a regional

9:33

war. But this is an election

9:36

year and in the United States.

9:38

and and President Biden does have

9:40

to. At the same time

9:42

address us domestic concerned

9:44

so. There. Are many moving

9:47

parts but without us pressure on

9:49

Israel or the ceasefire. really I

9:51

can't of be delivered. Just

9:54

quickly find me on that. And when you talk

9:56

about Biden their what did you than make of

9:58

his intervention kind of. The acting that the

10:00

ceasefire would come at the end of this week

10:03

is that helpful? Is that a sign of kind

10:05

of desperation on his birth. While

10:08

I think m his intervention an

10:10

ad and one being relatively positive

10:12

signals that and as ceasefires certainly

10:14

in the works, I'm not sure

10:17

so it will be delivered by

10:19

the weekend. The aim is to

10:21

have that. She's. Sire before Ramadan

10:23

I think the objects as him eating and

10:25

ice cream at talking about the Gaza war

10:27

an unfair to hear a bit l place

10:30

and it shows. That

10:32

the President still is an

10:35

understanding and the a gravity

10:37

of this war in. In.

10:39

The Middle East, And for Middle

10:42

Easterners, four hundred and fifty million

10:44

people have been really enraged by

10:46

what they see as Western imbalance.

10:49

Towards the loss of Palestinian lies

10:51

and you know I think this

10:53

could pose a challenge. As for

10:55

the president, in a very critical

10:57

election year where I U S

11:00

constituents of Middle Eastern and Muslim

11:02

origin I'm could take their anger

11:04

out at the ballot box. I'm.

11:07

So getting to an end of

11:09

of this war or even at

11:11

temporary ceasefire that's what we're gonna

11:14

call it is important for all

11:16

of the actors, but above all

11:18

for Palestinians. Thanks very

11:20

much Sun and that was some vacuum know.

11:22

Here's Sophie, Mana and Coombs with the days

11:24

of a new headlines. Thanks. This.

11:27

Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Poland's. Have

11:29

said they are not considering sending treat

11:31

t plane after French president. Emmanuel Macro

11:34

mercies to lump them as I'm speaking

11:36

at a European Leaders conference in Paris.

11:38

Mccrone argued that help in chief to

11:40

defeat to a set with necessary. For

11:42

Europe's Collective security. A

11:45

report into management systems at Boeing has

11:48

way serious concerns about the aircraft manufacturer

11:50

of soon as. By the Us

11:52

Aviation Regulate have found what it described

11:55

as a disconnect between senior management and

11:57

make in the South inadequate and can

11:59

see. Than fifty pesos. Take

12:03

A has said able to help unprecedented

12:05

step to tackle Japan's labour. Paint. Itself

12:08

and eight consecutive year. And twenty twenty

12:10

three. Of mental to say

12:12

the number of marriage is also. Continued food

12:14

dipping below five hundred thousand for the

12:16

first. Time. In nearly a century

12:18

size of today's headlines keep us.

12:21

Thanks. Very much surfing now as

12:23

farmers protests across Europe. One of

12:25

their key issues has been about

12:27

goods entering Ukraine are entering from

12:30

Ukraine. Rather, this is no more

12:32

true than for Poland, where farmers

12:34

have blocked trucks from Ukraine entering

12:36

their country, and the whole crisis

12:38

has built up tensions between the

12:40

two neighbors who really should be

12:42

allies in the war against Russia.

12:44

While Jaroslav Coin is the editor

12:46

in chief of Couture Li behind

12:48

the magazine and an assistant professor

12:51

at the University. Of Warsaw he

12:53

joins me Now jealous of before we

12:55

get to the farmers' I just wondered.

12:57

how was the Ukraine two year war

12:59

anniversary? The anniversary of the invasion by

13:01

Russia? How was that marked in Poland

13:04

over the weekend. World.

13:06

Aids is on the surface, it

13:08

is such as it used to

13:10

be easier, which means that there

13:12

is a strong support from or

13:15

the new liberal pro European government

13:17

adwords Ukraine. There is virtually no

13:19

chance, but this is this should

13:21

be. One should not really overlook

13:23

the fact that the awesome processes

13:25

that are. Going

13:28

behind the surface A which means that

13:30

there is a kind of a that

13:32

is what would I would called the

13:34

illusion of a prolonged war. Or

13:37

the illusion that in fact

13:39

a Ukraine is staying as

13:41

a as a as a

13:43

military power that is able

13:46

to two birds and oppose

13:48

against Russia as long as

13:50

possible and insights people tend

13:52

to have for. A

13:55

kind of serves a

13:57

reckless attitudes towards earth.

14:00

The support to you're trying because it

14:02

is that the date tend to believe

14:04

and I underline it's an illusion as

14:06

they tend to believe dad. So Russia

14:09

has been stopped. Insisting.

14:11

While I mean what is the situation

14:13

then at the border at the moment

14:15

as you could tell us how islam

14:17

as I've been through this border into

14:20

Ukraine, it's such a key conduit really

14:22

for everything into and out of Ukraine.

14:25

It is strictly combined to the

14:27

to the didn't have the my

14:29

my previous for this remark because

14:31

earth in fact that the people

14:33

over time people started to discovered

14:35

that there is us a dead

14:37

a difference of interest between Poland

14:40

that Ukraine's answered or what we

14:42

see at the but the border

14:44

is a dead. A

14:46

untroubled, very tangible. A

14:48

picture of of. of

14:52

the of the fact that people reacted

14:55

at the beginning automatically with a kind

14:57

of solidarity but after two years the

14:59

started to discover okay but there is

15:01

also earth difference of interest and then

15:04

they discovered up in fact. There.

15:07

Is a kind of regional competition

15:10

A.is possible. and by the way

15:12

it is. Not only is something

15:14

that was in political minds in

15:16

Poland me Halo Puddles? Yeah, can

15:19

advise of the missus. Alinsky said

15:21

once in his interview that Poland

15:23

and Ukraine would be in competition

15:25

with each other in numerous years

15:27

after the war. So it means.to,

15:30

some extent it is understandable bots

15:32

at the same time. It is

15:34

so ridiculous because it's all over.

15:36

Think is. Built on Daves

15:39

illusion of prolonged war Well and

15:41

I mean is the farmers disagreements

15:43

and what your lead to their

15:45

between the competition retain Poland and

15:47

Ukraine. It is about said of

15:49

waves of grain entering the European

15:51

Union from Ukraine, Ukraine though or

15:53

at the same time I just

15:55

wonder they claim that this grain

15:57

isn't even necessarily staying in Poland.

15:59

It's for. Sample and sealed rail

16:01

cars so I wonder what your perspective

16:03

is on that? What kind of the

16:05

farmers demands? Are they realistic in terms

16:08

of what they're doing holding up traffic

16:10

at the border? Will

16:13

the point is that it's this

16:15

business. In practice this subject is

16:17

extremely complex because obviously it's of

16:19

this part of food. grains are

16:21

going outside Poland but not all

16:23

of them and the fourth of

16:25

there is a kind of suspicion

16:27

among farmers that will eventually perhaps

16:29

the majority of grains will stay

16:31

in Poland. The that This whole

16:33

point is that I think that

16:35

one should to really. Focus

16:38

on the fact that there are

16:40

two different readings of the situation

16:42

and it's a kind of on

16:44

European tragedy because as on our

16:46

side of this are all of

16:49

these of these disputes we are

16:51

looking at Grains Dance. And.

16:53

Economic interest that are different but at

16:56

the same time on the you under

16:58

the Ukrainian side we see that the

17:00

interpretation is absolutely different and it should

17:03

be taken into consideration that every grain

17:05

is marked with Ukraine on blogs and

17:07

really good should be taken into consideration.

17:09

Done to have two different narratives and

17:12

there is a kind of tragedy is

17:14

tragedy not to talk about them at

17:16

the same time. Yeah. Absolutely

17:19

adamant. Given those different narratives, I

17:21

wonder also what's gone on Tusks

17:23

role has been in this the

17:25

new Polish government has? He managed

17:27

to change the dynamics here at

17:29

at all. He has sort of

17:31

sorts of repair relations with Ukraine

17:33

compared to the previous government. is

17:36

he caught said of between the

17:38

two year when it comes to

17:40

trying to find a resolution that

17:42

satisfies both Poland's narratives the farmers'

17:44

narrative and Ukraine's. Well.

17:46

In Poland the protests started

17:48

under the previous puppet government,

17:50

so once bearing in mind

17:52

under the new Donald of

17:54

Government, the purposes only continuing

17:56

and the point is that

17:58

Donald Tusk. To.

18:01

Think. Critically about his and

18:03

for the what what it means

18:05

it means that busier in Poland

18:07

or Poland will hold the local

18:10

elections and Alexis to the European

18:12

Parliament and the definitely it's been

18:14

up to school has two birds

18:16

in find a job. At

18:18

the same time the new government

18:20

declares it's support for Ukraine's mint

18:22

afford.is obvious, but at the same

18:24

time it cannot simply ignore the

18:26

interests of post farmers. I mean

18:28

the earth. One lesson from national

18:30

populism is not to confront your

18:32

own sovereign. That's at least not

18:34

openly. Yeah, So many European leaders

18:37

trying to deal with this dynamic

18:39

at the moment he our South

18:41

Korea's in Warsaw. Thank you very

18:43

much for joining us. You're listening

18:45

to the briefing a Monocle radio.

18:54

Now. Speaking of the European Union,

18:56

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated

18:58

attempts to bring tears into the

19:00

block, but it has irked. Several

19:02

countries in the Western Balkans have

19:04

been waiting to secure their place

19:07

for more than two decades. The.

19:09

European Union agreed in two thousand

19:11

and three that Albania, Bosnia, Herzegovina,

19:13

North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia

19:16

could all become members once each

19:18

of them that the blocks criteria.

19:20

Since then though accession talks have

19:22

faced numerous setbacks including bi lateral

19:25

disputes and seen his to he

19:27

rules. While at last week's Munich

19:29

Security Conference, Monaco's Andrew Miller caught

19:32

up with Bosnia and Herzegovina as

19:34

Foreign Minister admitting cannot cove it's

19:36

Andrew began by asking about the

19:38

years. Of delays to the country's

19:40

you accessing. Earth frustrating guy

19:43

can save courses. Really a big

19:45

problem for us of course. We

19:47

are also aware of our responsibility.

19:50

We know that previous governments they

19:52

didn't delivered enough from these fourteen.

19:54

Key priorities are some other responsibilities

19:57

regarding you baths and but is

19:59

still. Waiting waiting for more

20:01

than twenty years to start with

20:03

negotiations regarding your membership, it's not

20:06

easy at all. on the other

20:08

side for my country that still

20:10

the only option we have Let

20:12

me explain in just few arguments

20:14

we are exploiting yearly more than

20:17

seventy percent so far goods into

20:19

the European Union or twenty three

20:21

percent more to the region to

20:23

the countries that have a candidate

20:25

status countries for ios others shows

20:27

that ninety three percent so far.

20:30

Economy of the experts amount economy

20:32

goes to feel that the only

20:34

way we can develop the economy

20:36

and week enix any banks and

20:38

fourteen investments so it is frustrating

20:40

but it's still the on the

20:42

ups and and hopefully hopefully that

20:44

feel this show some leadership now

20:46

a thorn in that Arthur C

20:48

to them that and we will

20:50

have the right decision In March

20:52

twenty first and seventy second they

20:54

will decide to open officially negotiations

20:56

and the most important think there

20:58

was thought to integrate. A

21:00

Bosnian market to into the European

21:02

single market which actually creates a

21:04

lot of opportunities for our economy.

21:06

Is there a risk? So do

21:08

you think or perhaps better question

21:10

is do you think the news

21:12

from Leeds appreciative of the risk

21:14

of leaving a Bosnia out of

21:16

the you? Do you think it

21:18

makes the Balkans which is still

21:20

the Balkans and a more volatile

21:22

place? Nice selling question I I

21:24

explained to my colleagues some you

21:26

countries I said okay is the

21:28

really important question is. What will happen

21:31

if be age and other countries if

21:33

they go to you but even more

21:35

important question is what will happen if

21:37

they don't so so on his and

21:39

the have cause it's a fact that

21:42

big players are trying to control despite

21:44

of the was on an my shies

21:46

putting a lot of influence their malign

21:48

influence which actually doesn't help the was

21:50

heads of of he not all and

21:52

on the other side china is doing

21:55

their job with the project some money

21:57

offering for some other projects and them

21:59

european union I said that suits is

22:01

it is he was sleeping in my

22:03

country for decades they woke up unfortunately

22:06

because if you think and that's also

22:08

important issue because now it's not the

22:10

story anymore them out on the about

22:12

by adequacy or integration it's a security

22:14

political decision and then probably bit of

22:17

this is so I hope they are

22:19

all aware of the threat miss actually

22:21

we can all have with we'd done

22:23

to go in into you I have

22:25

to I have to say one really

22:27

important thing we don't expect shortcuts we

22:30

know. The rules we know we

22:32

need to deliver but opening in negotiations

22:34

I don't consider that the seasons as

22:36

a kind of been a casino or

22:38

or that actually is political and security

22:40

issue of of the momentum of to

22:42

the tightness with old Europe and they

22:44

should be aware of it. but if

22:46

we don't go into you if we

22:48

don't play European old then you can

22:50

ask yourself and all of us we

22:53

can ask ourselves what will happen then

22:55

I think we can imagine than than

22:57

than some other the implants in the

22:59

heart of Europe. On the second

23:01

board that with Glacier is more than think

23:03

us. A relationship

23:05

that is very much concern of yours

23:07

as Foreign minister is is the one

23:09

with Serbia or nights. I did see

23:11

that you had a pop at President

23:14

Alexander Digits recently for referring to rub

23:16

Republika Srpska institutions if they were actually

23:18

state institutions and I can understand smoking

23:20

kind of understand why he would do

23:22

that and I can kind of understand

23:24

why it's a it causes people in

23:26

the rest of Bosnia to bristle. but

23:28

do get the impression that relationship. Between

23:31

sorry I phone though right is improving

23:33

in the slightest, or is it still

23:35

pretty much what it's has been since

23:37

the nineties. First

23:39

of all it's really not easy

23:41

to sit at the same thabo

23:44

and to have discussions about European

23:46

future of Bosnia To go enough

23:48

with the people who are denying

23:51

genocide, celebrating war crimes who had

23:53

a few cases and few months

23:55

back like horrible statements from the

23:58

representatives of Republicans have guns. Yeah

24:00

we had to students few months ago

24:02

celebrating war crimes in the cellar when

24:05

diversity the are excluded and then only

24:07

one day after they had an offer

24:09

from so been government rumbling directly he

24:12

was empower them as he he offered

24:14

them full scholarship and he called him

24:16

to continue their education involving it's it's

24:19

a really it's a bad the masses

24:21

so be on the other side's with

24:23

have some serious statements from which is

24:26

also have lots of he says that

24:28

he protects and and he. Appreciates with

24:30

editorial integrity of own A T I

24:33

just met him now in that he

24:35

had in the Munich conference. At

24:38

we didn't improved our relations allah in

24:40

last twelve months madonna worse than before.

24:42

We are also aware vote of us

24:44

All of us actually have this opportunity

24:47

of this European Integration story which is

24:49

a our economy cannot survive without European

24:51

Union that that the facts so on

24:53

the other side we know and I

24:55

told you that I'd it's really hard

24:58

and is difficult but we know because

25:00

of the future of this country dialogue

25:02

is is something what we need to

25:04

do Everything we are really trying to

25:06

have integrate the like nylon like I

25:09

did reacted and I was reacted every

25:11

time and anyone I don't care who

25:13

would as as attacks on the Us

25:15

constitution of us answer them enough or

25:17

on the institution of our country so

25:20

my job is to protect it. I

25:22

will continue. Admitting

25:24

can I convince their The and

25:26

Bosnia Herzegovina Foreign Minister Speaking to

25:28

Andrew Miller you're listening to the

25:30

briefing. A manipulative. It

25:44

is time to get the latest business

25:47

news. Now with Bloomberg you in pots

25:49

who joins us from Dubai you and

25:51

see twenty finance ministers are starting with

25:53

they do to wear their meeting in

25:55

Brazil this week and sounding pretty positive

25:58

about the global economy. Hi

26:00

Chris Yeah they say that the likelihood

26:03

of a soft landing in the global

26:05

economy has increased. Now this is the

26:07

draft as the communicates as a job

26:09

before the arrival of the finance ministers

26:11

in San Paolo tomorrow the wording isn't

26:13

final. I will be subject to intense

26:15

negotiations the sex broadly that positivity about

26:17

the global economy. Of course when interest

26:19

rates the heights rapidly as a have

26:21

been around the world the witness the

26:23

worry is if we get a hard

26:25

landing. but so father doesn't seem to

26:27

be the case this time around. sickly

26:30

in the Us. Where doesn't like

26:32

breathing a a soft landing? people talking about

26:34

know landing at all? The Us economy is

26:36

really most ring a long. Unemployment in the

26:38

Us is three point seven percent. That is

26:41

pretty much exactly where I was when the

26:43

says resist started increasing. disgraced. Back. In

26:45

March, Twenty Twenty Two. So it's the Us.

26:47

economy has been incredibly ripostes despite the high

26:49

interest rates and although the European economies have

26:52

be doing not as well as the Us,

26:54

unemployment has mostly been kept on the console

26:56

as we try to bring inflation on. the

26:58

controller not is one of the things which

27:01

is like didn't the in the trough wedding

27:03

and that is about the fight against inflation.

27:05

We had eight an office any station across

27:07

the world in Twenty Twenty Two. Last, you

27:10

beagle that down to below seven percent in

27:12

the forecast. This yes, from the I mess

27:14

off. Or less than six percent is actually com

27:16

that much more quickly that in many countries in

27:19

the West's Us. Inflation is pretty close to the

27:21

Feds two percent targets will be do expect that

27:23

to public health a little bit later on this

27:25

week's as can be a bumpy road down. but

27:27

inflation. Is. Heading towards Target

27:30

across much of the world. So so far

27:32

looks like we have a states the worst

27:34

pain of the hiking cycle but the will

27:36

likely be some bumps along the way and

27:38

as it comes to assess when the said

27:40

it's gonna cost for that his subjects of

27:43

a lot of speculation. Back. In

27:45

Nineteen Ninety Five when we had a soft

27:47

landing and said reserve held for three meetings

27:49

before they didn't really started producing in disgrace,

27:52

A Slut is a tricky want to call

27:54

or something that markets are understandably very focused

27:56

on you and just to follow up on

27:58

that very quickly. Mentioned unemployment inflation

28:00

in the right direction there, but certainly in

28:03

Europe has been a lot of hang hand.

28:05

Thinking about growth is that talked about in

28:07

this in this communicator. Is that something that

28:09

only Europe as worried about right now. Christianity.

28:12

Opposite why the global growth pitcher is for

28:15

sea slug is some corn maze as a

28:17

lot of Us are doing very well but

28:19

particularly across much of the West, the most

28:21

including a Japan as well as a growth

28:24

is really negligible the moment Europe is bumping

28:26

on the boss and Germany's in recession or

28:28

the Us was in a recession of end

28:30

As a so the Uk was in a

28:33

recession the end of last year as well

28:35

as the latest data from the Uk. is

28:37

it of a lesson that is little little

28:39

bit better? But it does seem that Europe

28:42

has a. Growth Problem And as I

28:44

think the debate is that whether this

28:46

is a structural problem rather than a

28:48

cyclical problem, even in the good times,

28:50

the European economy does not grow very

28:52

fast and politicians are really struggling. Know

28:54

what to do because that the leaders

28:56

of adding fiscal stimulus well. Those.

28:58

Can't be pulled too much anyway, because

29:00

these economies on a huge amounts of

29:02

debt, which we run off during the

29:04

pandemic amongst other things. So there's little

29:06

fiscal firepower a boost the economy so

29:08

it's positions of course. Talk about supply

29:11

side measures are getting the underlying way

29:13

to post a up in the Euro

29:15

area, but that is tricky as well

29:17

and supposed to in the rothwell a

29:19

loss. Else. Gets a be sluggish

29:21

economy is growing, can sell is very much

29:23

now. Focus in Europe. You. And just

29:25

very quickly one of the story. Very

29:27

intriguing bitcoin back in the news. some

29:29

another run hire. The

29:31

other? they. Zumiez talk about this regularly, but

29:34

Bitcoin has touched sixty seven thousand dollars

29:36

for the first on now since late

29:38

twenties when she won the pricey up

29:40

now boy us third since the start

29:42

of the game starts with other very

29:44

good run over the last couple of

29:46

months, but nothing like as much as

29:48

Bitcoins now. A lot of it is

29:50

being driven by that ruling from the

29:53

Us Securities Exchange Commission a couple months

29:55

ago which allows sports eat yes, exchange

29:57

traded funds as they began trading in

29:59

early January. Really that legitimize crypto

30:01

currencies. It's kind of brought them into

30:03

the mainstream is the financial system or

30:05

any other interesting thing which is happening

30:08

a cell coming. reduction in bitcoins supply

30:10

growth is something cool v at the

30:12

having a bitcoin which means that the

30:14

number of bitcoins you can mine have

30:17

any given amount of fuel power is

30:19

going to have a April's that is

30:21

gonna help to squeeze the supply. Bitcoin

30:23

and other things being equal of should

30:26

drive up the prices to spike. Will

30:28

have five. Illustration: Alice This. Has gone

30:30

up since. Seat a Bear market of twenty

30:32

Twenty two member that was a massive settles

30:34

us of get the currencies every decided they

30:37

were giving up on the whole thing in

30:39

the price really crushed back and twenty sweaty

30:41

seats. So the value of digital currencies back

30:43

then sells eight hundred billion dollars have a

30:45

now back up to two point two trillion

30:48

dollars for that is the sort of close

30:50

to a close to a tripling of the

30:52

value of at least a crypto currency. So

30:54

how much feathers got to go to? That

30:56

is something I'm not going to speculate on.

30:58

His hard to predict. The wild ride

31:01

of Bitcoin around the world. You and

31:03

thank you very much that was Greenberg's

31:05

you and parts. And finally on the

31:07

briefing today it is time for a

31:10

of of news from Southeast Asia and

31:12

join I bought him and joined now

31:14

by Aaron Cook to car to based

31:16

journalist and author of a newsletter about

31:19

Southeast Asia. Aaron We're starting with Cambodia.

31:22

Yes this weekend past I just

31:24

had their senate elections which is

31:26

same prime minister or former prime

31:28

minister nap when sen kind of

31:30

back in the hot sakes he

31:32

passed on the. At their prime Ministership

31:35

after thirty years to the Son last

31:37

year. And now he is

31:39

technically about to become the President of

31:41

the Senate. Which puts him as. Said

31:43

this first in charge. If anything,

31:46

stop into the king, so it's

31:48

definitely not relinquishing that power easily.

31:51

While I'm and what is your sense of what

31:53

what might happen whether what is kind of going

31:55

to do as this the second in power, it's

31:58

quite a key role. In. The

32:00

A very much so. it's often interesting one

32:02

they said about since it's not a direct.

32:04

Vote for the people. So well

32:06

when sense Cambodian people's

32:09

party did fantastically last.

32:11

Us through I voter

32:13

intimidation and. Making

32:16

the opposition parties illegals. It's this time

32:18

around it was his own party fighting

32:20

to take him in this position of

32:23

power. This sort of the view that

32:25

when Sen is happy to relinquish some

32:27

of the palate to son who minute

32:29

but. He's still very much wants to

32:32

stay in the mix of things and we've seen

32:34

that recently. He just popped over the border to

32:36

visit Thailand to see tax and shit or what.

32:38

Who's of course a giant of of south

32:40

he says in politics so he's very much

32:42

saying in the in the. In

32:44

the mind in Cambodia. Or.

32:47

Earnest with for run to them. From that

32:49

to a story we have been following here

32:51

on Monaco radio and that's me and Mar

32:54

with conscription force conscription announced by the Junta

32:56

earlier this month. as a number of young

32:58

people just trying to sleep. A

33:01

lot of young people it's It's a

33:03

very very scary thing to watch was

33:05

seeing as it's when the sun was

33:07

already extraordinarily horrible becoming a nightmare for

33:09

a lot of people said that the

33:11

military junta is with having trouble holding

33:14

on to some footsoldiers a lot of

33:16

been slain that it would be a

33:18

part of this and in a little

33:20

actually being killed or at a being

33:22

seriously injured in classes with. The

33:24

ethnic armed groups. And said

33:26

the military seems like it. Feels.

33:28

Like it's been forced to bring in

33:30

cook conscription. Of the first someone

33:32

says it's history but a lot of

33:34

people do not want to be part

33:36

of this at all. Service slain for

33:38

the borders. This lane for embassies in

33:40

the and gone fleeing for visas and

33:42

that itself become violent. This was sent

33:44

to people die in stampedes at the

33:46

front of the Pie embassy in Yangon

33:48

so seems like a bad situations. Between

33:50

much much worse very quickly why and

33:53

how his his time and managing this

33:55

this is one aspect of they're bracing

33:57

for kind of thousands of people to

33:59

try it. To head over there border. Yes,

34:02

Thailand spend very nervous about this

34:04

whole situation. Since start of the

34:06

haunt Us Thailand has a huge

34:08

both legal and illegal population. Of

34:10

me and my migrants so. They've.

34:12

Been very very involved in the whole

34:15

arm peace process if we can call

34:17

it that. But as soon as this

34:19

was announced, the prime minister. Strict says

34:21

had have a sin said you know

34:23

Thailand. Should expect to see a

34:25

stampede people trying to get across

34:28

and we should it monitor to

34:30

make sure that there is no

34:32

illegals. So he's very much focused

34:34

on the idea of illegal workers

34:36

and illegal people rather than Thailand

34:38

being seen as as a safe

34:40

haven. For. Me and

34:42

Mart nationals who just don't want to

34:44

be a part of of the winter.

34:47

When I finally errands have a bit

34:49

of a lighter and stewart show today,

34:51

you wanted to talk about a story

34:53

in Singapore. The tourism industry is on

34:55

the up after the pandemic, including perhaps

34:57

not surprisingly because of a Taylor Swift

34:59

to her. Taylor

35:02

Swift's i think probably saving economy suffers

35:04

the planet fit the moments deceased today

35:06

planning to Singapore after couple of weeks

35:08

and australia of he cannot get a

35:10

flight into the city he can not

35:12

that a hotel see has saints if

35:15

is said the city and it comes

35:17

up the back of. Very popular

35:19

Coldplay and Ed Sheeran shows.

35:21

It's you know, no accounting

35:23

for taste, but it's. Been

35:25

exciting. Singapore's been hasn't released a same

35:28

it's tourism pop that the Y Sin

35:30

in Thailand, Vietnam, for instance said this

35:32

could be the beginning. It's a lot

35:34

of people coming from across Southeast Asia.

35:38

No one else is really playing. Shows in

35:40

Bangkok. I'm in a lower Jakarta, but.

35:43

Thailand. And Singapore. other

35:45

posting tell. Us that than they

35:47

really to go. Are they ready to

35:49

go? And what is the reaction for

35:51

Singaporeans themselves with this sort of new

35:53

influx of a excited hotels? The hospitality,

35:55

everything and must hear? good moment for

35:57

them. Absolutely. Tiny airport I think. It

36:00

is scary to this protocol. There was nobody getting

36:02

in the airport to say they could. Access

36:04

lying in bed bath Looks like

36:06

five star hotels across the city

36:09

have put extra security. On the

36:11

haven't really swear she stay. ah but

36:13

so. The. City's really famous like

36:15

Marina Bay Sands they thought and hotel

36:17

all had extra security in a few

36:19

fans milling around hoping to get a

36:21

glimpse of her. Perfect for me between

36:23

various spotting I can imagine Aaron thank

36:25

you very much Said was Air in

36:27

Cook in Jakarta and that of all

36:29

the time Yeah for this edition of

36:31

the briefing produced by Million Falsehood and

36:33

So feet. Monahan Coombs, a researcher with

36:35

Noom a gray and City manager with

36:37

stepchildren the briefing his back tomorrow At

36:39

the same time I'm Christy Mack Goodbye

36:41

and thanks for listening.