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Briefing first broadcast on the 8th of March 2024 on

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Monocle Radio. Hello

1:13

and welcome to The Briefing, coming to you

1:15

live from Studio One here at Midori House

1:17

in London. I'm Chris Chermak, coming up on

1:20

today's programme. We are proud to stand

1:22

together with the United States on fighting against

1:24

illegal migration, on

1:26

terrorism, and to

1:28

protect and help the Christian communities all

1:31

around the world. Four years

1:33

after their first love and while Donald

1:35

Trump was in the White House, Hungary's

1:37

Viktor Orban is due to meet the

1:39

former president again at his Florida resort

1:41

and snub the current president, Joe Biden.

1:44

We'll also look at Ukraine's appointment of

1:46

its former commander in chief as UK

1:48

ambassador. After that, we head to Ireland.

2:00

is to constitute a family. Ireland

2:02

prepares to vote on the definition of

2:04

a family. We'll also look at a

2:06

space military drill in France that's being

2:08

joined by Japan. And finally,

2:10

we'll preview the Oscars ceremony taking place

2:13

this Sunday in Los Angeles. All

2:15

that right here on the briefing with me, Chris Termack. At

2:25

Joe Biden's State of the Union

2:27

address last night, the US president

2:29

targeted his predecessor Donald Trump repeatedly

2:32

for threatening democracy at home and

2:34

abroad. Well, today, as

2:36

if right on cue, Trump will

2:38

be meeting with a political ally

2:40

in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban,

2:42

who has openly supported Trump's reelection

2:44

bid while being accused of democratic

2:46

backsliding back home in Budapest. Perhaps

2:49

even more striking is that Orban

2:51

will not be meeting with Biden

2:53

or anyone else from his administration,

2:55

despite Hungary being a fellow NATO

2:57

member. Well, Maeda Ruge

2:59

is a senior policy fellow with the

3:02

wider Europe program at the European Council

3:04

on Foreign Relations. She joins us from

3:06

Berlin. Maeda, great to have you

3:08

on the show. Let's start with kind

3:10

of how this trip is being seen back in

3:12

Hungary. Well,

3:15

I presume that among the Fides

3:17

voters, it's being seen in the

3:19

positive light. And that I think

3:21

immediately brings us to the question of

3:24

what connects Orban and Trump, and

3:26

not just Trump, but also the new right

3:28

Republicans. Mr.

3:32

Orban has already met in

3:34

Washington, D.C., with Kevin Roberts,

3:36

the president of the Heritage

3:38

Foundation, and Steve Bannon, Donald

3:41

Trump's former White House adviser,

3:43

both very strong Christian

3:45

conservative ideologues, who see former

3:48

President Trump as a vehicle to

3:50

promote their Christian conservative agenda.

3:53

And so what

3:56

obviously unites them is their

3:58

Christian conservative ideology. and

4:00

this politics of resentment against

4:03

the so-called liberal globalist elites,

4:06

which by the way also

4:08

includes political leadership in Washington

4:10

and in Brussels these days.

4:13

So you have

4:15

started with quoting some

4:17

of his anti-immigration statements. Trump

4:19

made a populist pledge to

4:21

build a wall in 2016

4:24

and approximately at the same

4:26

time Orban actually built a long

4:28

fence on Hungary's southern border

4:30

that was finalized in 2017 and

4:32

claimed that the EU will pay for

4:34

it. So with his audience this looks quite

4:37

good. I mean is this

4:39

a common practice frankly for Orban?

4:42

Would he have wanted to meet

4:44

Joe Biden as well if that was offered or

4:46

is this part of his tactic to sort of

4:48

meet those leaders that he's aligned with and not

4:51

meet other leaders that he is not aligned with

4:53

even if that means then meeting with the opposition

4:55

alone? Yes I

4:57

think it is the part of deliberate strategy.

5:00

Mr. Orban has also

5:02

refused to meet the

5:04

congressional delegation that's comprised

5:06

out of obviously both

5:08

Republicans but also some

5:10

notable Democrats who

5:12

came to the Munich Security Conference

5:14

in February this year. He has

5:17

openly snubbed Biden administration

5:19

as trying to undermine him politically

5:21

at home because of this crudity

5:23

and pressure that was put on

5:26

Orban by

5:28

the administration but more importantly by

5:31

the allies in Brussels

5:33

and EU regarding democracy and

5:35

the erosion of rule of

5:37

law in Hungary. So obviously

5:39

Orban is connecting with a

5:42

movement with

5:44

whom he shares much more even

5:48

going beyond the immigration. If you

5:50

think about what they share a

5:53

kind of same side

5:55

in this cultural war against

5:57

the progressive identity politics Whether

6:00

it's gender and LGBT

6:04

issues, whether it's anti-abortion

6:06

positions, whether it's resentment

6:08

of liberal educational system. If

6:11

you remember, Orban has kicked out

6:13

the Central European University from Budapest

6:15

during Trump's first term. It

6:18

was one of the most liberal, progressive

6:20

graduate institutions in Hungary from the U.S.

6:24

It's not clear that he would have been

6:26

able to do that if Biden had been

6:28

in the office. But he has a clear

6:30

preference here. Well, and then

6:32

in addition to all of those that you mentioned,

6:34

there is of course also the war in Ukraine,

6:36

something that they are also quite allied on. Donald

6:39

Trump, you know, blocking aid

6:41

to Ukraine from the U.S. side in

6:43

Congress. And Orban tried

6:46

to block aid from Europe as well. What

6:49

do we expect the two would have talked about

6:51

there? Are they sort of looking towards a future

6:53

where they're both in power? Absolutely.

6:56

And that is a good way to put it.

6:58

They're looking at a future where they're both in

7:00

power. Orban, obviously, his desire

7:03

is to have a powerful ally

7:06

in Washington in his fight against Brussels

7:08

and all different sort of issues. But

7:10

foreign policy alignment is one of them. And

7:13

on Ukraine, they're quite aligned. Trump

7:15

has openly said that he will negotiate with Putin

7:17

to end the war in 24 hours. While

7:20

that is obviously an impossible task, what

7:22

it does mean is that he sees

7:25

that as a task in which

7:27

concessions will have to be made

7:29

concerning Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

7:32

And I think that Orban has openly

7:35

multiple times said that that is exactly

7:38

what he hopes in terms of the

7:40

future policy on Russia and

7:42

Ukraine. So it

7:44

is going to be possibly the

7:46

calculations of Orban is that it's

7:48

going to be much easier for

7:50

him to push for his foreign

7:52

policy agenda once he has the

7:55

backing of a powerful ally in

7:57

Washington, especially. If

8:01

Europe gets divided on the

8:03

issue of do you follow

8:06

the US or do you

8:08

oppose? Well, and just finally,

8:10

where you are in Germany, in Berlin, how

8:12

do you expect this to be seen? I

8:14

mean, is there a worry that if Trump

8:16

gets into office, it will be the likes

8:19

of Orban who have his ear rather than

8:21

Germany or France? I

8:24

think that is definitely a worry,

8:26

maybe an unspoken one. Europeans

8:29

are obviously quite careful to

8:36

make public statements about

8:38

this, but maintaining unity

8:40

within the European Union

8:44

is one of the preconditions

8:46

for pursuit of any sort of

8:48

coherent foreign policy. And

8:50

I think there's a big worry that Trump is

8:53

going to try to divide the EU like

8:56

he did the first time around, but this

8:58

time it's much more serious consequences because we

9:00

have a war raging on the

9:02

continent, which we didn't have during

9:04

his first term in the same scale, and

9:07

because much more is at stake. So

9:09

I think that absolutely there

9:12

is still publicly not

9:14

spoken, but there is a big worry that

9:17

people like Orban are going to be a big

9:19

vehicle for dividing the EU. Thanks

9:21

very much, Maida. There was Maida Rugha.

9:23

Now here's Tamsin Howard with today's other

9:26

news headlines. Thanks, Chris. President

9:28

Biden has used his State of the Union

9:30

address to announce the US military will construct

9:33

support in Gaza to get more humanitarian aid

9:35

into the territory by sea. The

9:38

president opened his speech with a call

9:40

for more military aid to Ukraine and

9:42

condemned Donald Trump for having encouraged President

9:44

Putin to attack NATO allies. Australia

9:47

has offered the Malaysian government support

9:49

for a renewed search for the

9:51

wreckage of the Malaysian airline flight

9:54

MH370 on the 10-year anniversary of

9:56

the aircraft's disappearance. Families

9:58

of the 213-year-old are now in the air. nine missing

10:00

passengers and crew of the Boeing

10:02

777 have vowed to continue pressing

10:05

authorities for answers. Under

10:07

Kira Toyama, the creator of Dragon Ball has

10:09

died at 68 after suffering an

10:13

acute subdural hematoma. Dragon

10:15

Ball, one of the most influential and

10:17

best-selling Japanese comics of all time, became

10:20

popular around the world and was translated

10:22

into dozens of languages. Those

10:24

are the day's headlines. Back to you, Chris. Thanks

10:27

very much, Tamzin. To Ukraine now,

10:30

where President Volodymyr Zelensky has

10:32

somewhat surprisingly appointed the country's

10:34

recently ousted military chief, Valery

10:36

Zaluzny, as ambassador to

10:38

the UK. On some level, this

10:40

is an extremely important appointment with

10:42

the UK, perhaps Ukraine's biggest ally

10:44

in Europe and provider of military

10:47

aid, but it's no doubt going

10:49

to be seen as something of a step

10:51

down for the man who, until recently, is

10:53

leading Ukraine's entire army. Well,

10:55

Lecia Vasilenko is a Ukrainian MP

10:57

and co-chair of the Inter-Parliamentary Relations

10:59

Group to the UK. She

11:02

joins me now. Lecia, thanks so much for

11:04

coming on the show. How much of a

11:06

compromise was this appointment? How is it being

11:08

seen in Kyiv? Well,

11:11

in Kyiv, on the one hand, the political

11:14

segment sees it as finally we

11:16

have an ambassador appointed to the

11:19

UK because the previous ambassador left

11:22

his position seven months ago and

11:24

seven months in

11:26

one of our critical allies,

11:29

we don't have representative, which

11:32

isn't good, especially at

11:34

the time of war. So definitely good

11:36

news here on the one hand. There

11:39

is some perplexion, some confusion

11:41

among the military segment of

11:43

the Iranian society, but other

11:45

than that, I think there is a lot of hope that

11:48

this will give us a positive

11:50

outcome. It is kind

11:52

of interesting the way you describe that, the fact

11:54

that this has been open for seven months for

11:56

such an important ally. I mean, the fact that

11:58

this is now being filled, but also being

12:01

filled with Zaluzhny. I mean, is that

12:03

a sign that Ukraine is kind of

12:05

investing everything back into its UK

12:07

relationship, perhaps also at a time

12:10

where other allies like the US

12:12

are less certain? I'd

12:15

like to think that Ukraine has always

12:17

been invested into the UK relationship. I

12:19

mean, the UK is seen

12:21

and has always been seen as a strategic

12:23

partner of Ukraine, alike with the US. With

12:27

Zaluzhny's appointment, I think it's

12:30

also going to give a lot of wins

12:32

for the relationship. I mean, Valeriy Zaluzhny is

12:34

well known in the UK. He

12:36

has many contacts in the military

12:39

segment with top-ranking military

12:42

personnel and officials here

12:45

in the UK. He is well respected. I

12:48

know also that on the British side,

12:51

there's a certain comfort

12:54

in the fact that Valeriy Zaluzhny is

12:56

being appointed. And

12:58

at the end of the day, we have

13:00

to also be aware that it's not just

13:02

the position of the ambassador we're looking at.

13:04

We're also looking at the team being formed

13:06

around this ambassador. So Valeriy

13:09

Zaluzhny has proved himself to be a

13:11

good leader in the position

13:13

that he was holding. He's a great manager.

13:16

And I think he has the skill sets to build

13:18

a team around himself. So while he will be leading,

13:20

of course, on building

13:23

up the already existing and

13:25

good relations on the

13:28

defense and security cooperation

13:30

between Ukraine and UK, there

13:32

will be a whole team engaged with

13:35

all the other sectors of

13:37

the bilateral relations between Ukraine and UK.

13:40

And you say he's a good leader, obviously,

13:43

but how well do we expect the former

13:45

general to do as a diplomat? It is

13:47

a slightly different role, but then again, I

13:50

suppose at a time of war, it's the

13:52

kind of leader you need. It's

13:55

a completely different role. I agree

13:57

with you here. And Valeriy Zaluzhny is a

13:59

good leader. Zaluzne did not engage

14:01

in many diplomatic activities, let's

14:03

be very frank. So

14:06

it will be a new enplois for

14:09

him in this new status, in this

14:11

new role. But again, I would like

14:13

to underline that the team is what

14:15

makes an embassy effective. Yes,

14:17

of course, there needs

14:19

to be a leadership and Zaluzne is

14:22

a good leader, but there's a lot

14:24

relies also on the diplomats that will

14:27

be working alongside with him and

14:30

in a coordinated manner of bringing

14:32

results for Ukraine. And I'm sure

14:34

that that will be achievable. But

14:36

of course, a lot remains to be seen

14:38

as in any

14:40

situation, in any circumstances, but a

14:42

lot is also vested into this

14:45

new appointment and into the new

14:47

team being set up in the

14:49

Ukrainian embassy. And just

14:51

finally, Lecia, back in Kiev, I

14:53

wonder also how this is being

14:56

seen sort of politically, Zaluzne was

14:58

also something of arrival to Zelensky,

15:00

perhaps for also the attention

15:02

he had as commander in chief. How

15:04

is this appointment seen in that sense, the fact

15:07

that he will be leaving Ukraine and being in

15:09

the UK? Well, for

15:11

the next four to five years, that is, it

15:13

will definitely not be a rival to any

15:18

political figure standing for

15:20

president or any other positions in Ukraine.

15:22

Because of course, when you are ambassador,

15:24

you are representing your country, but you

15:26

are representing your country abroad. And

15:28

spending anything from

15:32

one to four up to five

15:34

years abroad means that you fall out from

15:36

the public segment in your

15:39

own country, and you

15:41

kind of go into the shadows.

15:43

So I think if there were

15:45

any stipulations, any risks, that's very

15:47

Zaluzne could out shadow

15:49

anyone running for president in the next

15:51

presidential elections. That risk is now off

15:53

the table. Lecia

15:55

Vasilenko, thank you very much for joining us.

15:57

This is the briefing with me, Chris Chirmak.

16:07

In Ireland, there is a vote planned

16:09

for today on a constitutional change that

16:11

would expand the definition of what it

16:14

means to be a family. The idea

16:16

is to expand the definition beyond marriage

16:18

to other forms of partnership and it's

16:20

the latest sign of a cultural shift

16:22

in Ireland, which until 2018 had

16:25

also outlawed abortion. Today's

16:27

vote will also ask whether a reference to

16:29

the role of women in the home should

16:32

be removed from the constitution as well. While

16:35

Gavin Riley is a political correspondent for

16:37

Virgin Media News in Dublin, he joins

16:39

me now. Gavin, how long was

16:41

today's vote in the making? It

16:45

was officially announced actually a year ago

16:47

today. The official plans for this referendum

16:49

were announced on International Women's Day last

16:51

year and although it was originally planned

16:53

to actually have the ballots laid last

16:55

autumn or early winter around November time,

16:58

ultimately they needed to finesse the wording a

17:00

little bit more. So that's how it ended

17:02

up happening today and the government's thinking was

17:05

that it wanted to mark International Women's

17:07

Day by giving people an opportunity to vote

17:09

on these two particular individual ballots. Where

17:12

the political idea has come from is something that's been

17:14

a few more years in the making. It

17:16

was actually that the previous government announced one

17:18

of its regular citizens assemblies where it just

17:20

wanted to generally put out the feelers and

17:23

have a more informed, intensive debate among

17:25

a random section of society about whether

17:28

the existing words had positive or negative

17:30

implications or connotations for anybody or whether

17:32

it might be appropriate to change them.

17:34

They recommended the changes which by and

17:36

large amounts to the changes that people are being asked

17:38

to vote on today. What

17:40

would be the practical implications of

17:43

changing this definition of family

17:45

specifically? Well actually that's one of

17:47

the curious things about today's referendum, the two referendum

17:49

that we're considering, both the language around women and

17:52

also the language around family is that we've become

17:54

a little bit more accustomed in Ireland because of

17:56

the referendum that you mentioned in 2018 outlawing a...

18:00

abortion, and also the referendum that we had in 2015

18:02

on permitting same-sex marriage. We've become

18:04

accustomed to these things having very

18:06

deliberate, very tangible, very visible impact

18:09

in what they actually mean. Whereas

18:11

these ballots, there isn't any obvious immediate

18:13

sort of significant practical impact from voting

18:15

for them. It may be a case

18:18

that they might allow laws to be

18:20

changed further down the line or that

18:22

somebody may be able to go to

18:24

a court and argue that the constitution

18:26

now takes their circumstances into account, but

18:28

there wouldn't be any direct tangible impact,

18:30

or at least that is the government's contention. One

18:33

thing that they have said though is that around

18:35

1 million people in Ireland, out of

18:37

a population of around 5.1 million people,

18:40

live in families which are not currently

18:42

constitutionally recognised as being families. I mean,

18:44

they obviously are families in society,

18:46

but because the Irish constitution defines a family

18:48

as being something that's founded upon the institution

18:51

of marriage, that means that there are around

18:53

1 million children who are the children of

18:56

unmarried parents or being raised by a single

18:58

parent, or who aren't raised by their actual

19:00

parents, or maybe in the care of guardians,

19:02

or aunts, or uncles, or grandparents. And

19:05

right now, the government believes that the optics

19:07

of them not being considered a family to

19:09

the same degree as anyone else is a

19:11

little inappropriate. So that's the real motivation behind

19:13

today's referendum. You know, it's quite interesting actually

19:15

that you describe it just as the optics.

19:17

I mean, does it not have any kind

19:19

of implications for care and sort of what

19:22

families, what sort of guardians and others are

19:24

able to do, whether it's hospital care, those

19:26

kinds of things, or is that something that

19:28

the government has gotten around despite

19:30

these references in the

19:33

constitution? They are something which

19:35

might well be addressed a little further down the

19:37

line. And I suppose it is worth stating for

19:40

an audience outside of the island that although

19:42

the constitution only recognises marital families as

19:44

being families, it doesn't necessarily mean that

19:47

there are other areas of law where,

19:49

for example, like in care or inheritance

19:51

or a whole gamut of other areas

19:53

where there is still recognition and equal

19:56

legal parity, if you like, for families that are

19:59

and are not. founded on

20:01

the institution of marriage. So in truth, a lot of

20:03

the, there isn't a huge

20:05

amount of inequality between the treatment of those two

20:07

family setups anyway. It's more a case that just

20:09

the constitution gives the title

20:11

of family suit to one that's founded on

20:14

marriage and the government's essential argument is

20:16

that it doesn't think it's fair. One thing that I

20:18

should mention though, by way of balance of one thing, which

20:20

appears as something of a banana skin and which may result

20:23

in a higher no vote than outsiders

20:25

might anticipate is that the

20:27

proposed new definition of family would not alone

20:29

be something founded on marriage, but

20:32

also on other durable relationships. That's

20:35

the phrase that's being inserted into the

20:37

constitution by this amendment. And that is not

20:39

defined by the amendment itself. And people

20:41

might wonder then, well, you know, what

20:43

would be the impact of giving constitutional

20:45

recognition to other durable relationships that

20:47

are parallel to a marriage? Might it be a case,

20:50

for example, that if somebody dies

20:52

and unbeknownst to their marital family, they

20:54

had another partner or a mistress or somebody

20:56

else and another family somewhere else, might

21:00

it entitle that second family based on the

21:02

durable relationship, might it entitle them to make a

21:04

claim for certain parts of the state? I mean,

21:07

that's an argument that has taken up a lot

21:09

of attention for particularly among those in farming and

21:11

agriculture where you might have landed that have been

21:13

handed down as a family farm for generations. And

21:15

now people are a little nervous about what

21:18

might counter the durable relationship and might that

21:20

mean that property that was in a family's

21:22

holding might possibly be claimed by somebody else

21:24

further than the line. That

21:26

is very interesting. I mean, given that, then some

21:28

of those things you're describing, some of that wording,

21:30

what is the expectation today? What are the polls

21:33

saying? Well, in truth, this has

21:35

been a fairly underwhelming referendum. So there hasn't been

21:37

a huge gamut of opinion polls. And the last

21:39

one was last weekend, which showed that were you

21:41

to strip out the undecided, that it

21:43

would be set to pass by a margin of around 65 to

21:45

35. But

21:47

I stressed that that's when you strip out the

21:50

undecided. What was really remarkable about

21:52

the polling last weekend when the last formal

21:54

national polls were taken, was that a good

21:56

third of people and a growing number of people, which

21:58

is remarkable the closer you get. to an election,

22:00

a growing number of people were undecided and

22:02

weren't even sure if they were actually going

22:04

to turn up to vote at all. So

22:06

really there was a lot of doubt. There

22:08

often tends to be the case, particularly in

22:10

referendums here in Ireland, where people maybe only

22:13

become really attuned to the arguments in the

22:15

final days before polling. It's really only been

22:17

in the last few days that there's been

22:19

a real uptick in coverage in broadcast media

22:21

or the organization of formal TV head-to-head debates.

22:23

So it's really only going to take a

22:25

fight in the last week. So although those

22:27

polls of the weekend did show that at

22:29

that point the family referendum has passed,

22:32

it really wouldn't be terribly surprising if the

22:34

margin was much closer. And actually, although there's

22:36

a moratorium on formal broadcasting coverage today in

22:38

Ireland, I can tell you that some of

22:40

the bookmakers and the Gavin companies right

22:43

now kind of consider this to be a bit on the life

22:45

edge if I was too close to call right now. Well,

22:48

and Gavin, just finally while we have

22:50

you on the show, the Prime Minister

22:52

of Ireland is facing calls to boycott

22:55

an annual trip to Washington for Saint

22:57

Patty's Day over Gaza. What

22:59

can you tell us about that? Yeah, so there

23:01

has been this ongoing thing where it

23:03

kind of happens every year where people wonder

23:05

whether the Taoiseach, the Irish Prime Minister, are

23:07

making their annual visit to the Oval Office,

23:09

whether it is really a political event or

23:11

whether it is just more of a Patty

23:13

Wackerie jamboree, where it's just this kind of

23:16

very facetious, superficial way of celebrating Irishness without

23:18

any real influence. And there's

23:20

been this claim from those, particularly on the

23:22

further left of the Irish political spectrum, that

23:24

by going over and meeting Joe Biden, who

23:26

of course identifies himself as an Irish Catholic

23:29

President of the United States, that

23:31

Ireland would be giving sucker to Joe Biden at

23:33

a time when really it ought to be

23:35

mounting protests at the US's position on the

23:37

Middle East and its continual armament of Israel.

23:40

There's a historical sort of affinity between

23:42

the Irish and the Palestinians, largely because

23:44

of affairs in Northern Ireland, this perception

23:46

that Ireland, much like Palestine, sometimes is

23:48

perceived as being an unfinished nation or

23:50

that it hasn't got the statehood that

23:53

it might aspire to have on the

23:55

international stage. So broadly speaking, there's been

23:57

this pressure on the Alvaradkar not

23:59

to go ahead. with that meeting for fear that it

24:01

might ultimately be seen as some sort of endorsement

24:04

or a celebration of the US when people would

24:06

like it to use it as a point to

24:08

protest. Neil Varadkar doesn't accept that convention of course

24:10

he says but if this is a political meeting

24:12

that we have and our this relatively lucky and

24:15

unique to have the opportunity for there's basically an

24:17

annual guaranteed meeting with the president of the US

24:19

in the Oval Office and that Arnhem would be

24:21

better off taking that opportunity to sit down with

24:24

Joe Biden and to really impart upon him the

24:26

views of Irish people and the concerns that they

24:28

have about the treatment of people in Gaza

24:30

of course it means he's always having behind

24:33

doors and nobody ever knows what happens in certain things.

24:35

Just having these at those points might be provided

24:37

even. Gavin Riley thank you

24:39

very much for joining us you are listening to

24:41

the briefing on Monocle Radio. This

24:49

is the briefing and I'm Chris Termack.

24:51

In France a unique series of military

24:54

drills have been taking place since Monday

24:56

called Aster X. The drills focus on

24:58

the realms of space and cyberspace and

25:01

they include a curiously wide range of

25:03

countries from Europe and around the world

25:05

including the UAE Australia and

25:07

for the first time this year

25:10

Japan. Alessio Patilano is professor of

25:12

war and strategy in East Asia

25:14

at King's College London and can

25:16

tell us more. Alessio thanks very

25:18

much for coming on to the show

25:20

what are these Aster X drills first of all

25:22

what's their purpose? So

25:25

we must think about the fact

25:28

that the exercises are designed to

25:30

address the problem of cyberspace this

25:32

is the component that

25:35

in the French military just a

25:37

couple of years ago a few

25:39

years ago was established like in

25:41

other countries a dedicated space force

25:43

that was really about the resilience

25:46

of the networks the thinking about

25:48

how today one needs

25:50

to be more resilient in its

25:52

communications infrastructure.

25:55

So how to think about what

25:58

one can take combat

26:00

through these new enabling domains,

26:02

space and cyber. And this

26:05

is the largest exercise at

26:07

the national level that France

26:09

convenes in this space. This

26:13

year we understand that there is,

26:15

according to the official website of

26:17

Asterix, there's a 15 nations

26:20

participating in the

26:22

exercise in addition to France. And

26:25

within this context we have Japan and

26:27

South Korea, who are the only two

26:29

countries from East Asia

26:32

to have joined this

26:34

year for the first time,

26:36

particularly when it comes to

26:38

Japan, the exercise. Also, small

26:40

note, the exercise takes place

26:42

in Toulouse, which in many

26:44

ways is the French capital

26:46

of advanced aerospace industrial culture.

26:49

In fact, Nissan maker MBTA,

26:52

Ariane Group and other European companies

26:54

are participating, because obviously being at

26:57

the cutting edge of this new

26:59

sector, they want to sort of

27:01

be there where the operators are starting

27:03

to understand the implication of these new

27:06

technologies and bring that expertise back home

27:08

to think about where to take their

27:10

systems and what they desire in the

27:12

future. And Alessio, what

27:15

is the motivation for Japan and

27:17

South Korea specifically? That's

27:20

an excellent question, but it's a question that

27:22

needs to place in the context of a

27:24

journey, a journey in which Japan,

27:29

probably for a longer period of time, recently

27:31

with the new South Korean administration, South Korea

27:33

has also proven to be very much at

27:35

the end of this. So there

27:37

is a convergence. Prime Minister

27:40

Kishi of Japan talks the

27:45

inter-correlated and integrated nature of

27:47

the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic

27:49

security landscape. And when it

27:51

comes to things such as

27:54

cyber and space, cooperating with

27:56

European counterparts has become a

27:58

really important part of the world. part

28:01

of the equations we've seen in

28:03

the way in which the relationship

28:05

that Japan and South Korea have

28:07

developed with NATO and the conversation

28:09

even within the context of particularly

28:11

when it comes to Japan and

28:13

Japan-EU relationship.

28:16

So for these two countries is

28:18

important. It matters because these domains,

28:20

these enabling domains are going to

28:22

be central to the future warfare

28:24

and at the same time, particularly

28:26

when it comes to the security

28:28

of the Indo-Pacific and Europe,

28:31

they see a correlation that demands them

28:33

to increase the conversation and explore new

28:35

ways of cooperation. Well,

28:37

so as I understand from these exercises,

28:40

the war games are at

28:42

least last year were against

28:44

a hypothetical Eastern neighbour. Last

28:46

year the adversary was Mercure

28:48

and multinational forces were supporting

28:51

Ireland. How many guesses for which country of

28:53

this is directed at? So

28:56

I mean, the funny thing in

28:58

all of this is that it

29:00

is not just these exercises, most

29:02

military exercises for obvious reason. It

29:04

needs to be relatively sort of

29:06

in a hiding-plane side when it

29:08

comes to the scenarios that you're

29:11

thinking about, the name you give

29:13

to the potential actors.

29:15

But the reality is

29:17

that the underneath that

29:19

superficial need to musk

29:21

real names, the real

29:25

world conditions of

29:27

war in Ukraine set the context

29:29

quite clearly in terms of what

29:31

kind of geopolitical issues are being

29:34

tried to address. We should not

29:36

forget also that when

29:38

it comes in particular to the current

29:41

situation in Ukraine, North Korea has been

29:43

a very important supporter of Russia through

29:45

the ammunition and the deliveries. South Korea

29:47

has been supportive of Ukraine. So the

29:50

geopolitical conditions

29:52

that one explores in these

29:54

exercises do not, they

29:56

draw upon a reality that is fast

29:58

evolving and in ways. masking

30:01

certain names does not

30:04

make you step away from how

30:06

you understand the reality of international

30:08

affairs unfolding in front of us.

30:11

Alessio Patilana, thank you very much for joining us.

30:14

You are listening to the briefing on Monocle Radio.

30:22

And finally, on today's show, it is

30:24

the Friday before the Oscars ceremony, and

30:26

that means it's time for a preview

30:28

from film critic Karen Krizanovich, who joins

30:30

me now. Karen, I know you'll be

30:33

on the Monocle's Globalist nice and early

30:35

Monday morning to discuss the results from

30:37

the ceremony. We thought we'd get you

30:39

nice and fresh. That's

30:41

a really good idea. I'm looking

30:43

forward, I have to say, I'm

30:46

looking forward to Monday morning and

30:48

going through this very exciting year

30:50

to see where the

30:52

surprises are, if we have surprises.

30:54

And I'm just very excited. It's

30:56

like the filmgoers holiday. It

31:00

has been a very good year for

31:02

film, to be honest, hasn't it? And

31:04

I mean, Oppenheimer kind of feeds through

31:06

all of it for this year and

31:08

is leading for Best Picture. But could

31:11

we be surprised? We can

31:13

always be surprised at the Oscars. Oppenheimer has

31:15

13 nominations. It's

31:17

probably, we're thinking it's probably

31:19

a cinch for Best Picture because it

31:22

won the PGA's top prize and the 15 Best

31:24

Pictures for the last 20 years,

31:26

well, I think 24 of the 33 years, they

31:29

have won the PGA's top prize. So

31:31

it's indicating very heavily that

31:33

it's going to do very well across

31:36

the categories. But don't forget, the

31:38

Academy has changed its membership since

31:41

2016 and has a

31:43

voting body internationally of about 10,000

31:45

now. So that means that some

31:47

people may not even have been

31:49

to LA and they might vote differently.

31:53

Does that mean certain international films might get

31:55

another look? I know Zone of Interest is

31:57

one of those, for example, that both. in

32:00

the best picture and also the

32:02

best director category is up against

32:04

Oppenheimer. Absolutely, absolutely.

32:06

And weirdly, and it's all about

32:08

sound as well. So I mean, it's got

32:10

so much going for it, considering it's a

32:13

British director, it's mostly in German. So

32:16

it's really quite incredible. And

32:18

it's possible that that could, it

32:21

could take away best director, it could take

32:23

away best picture. It looks unlikely, but Oscar

32:25

always likes to pull the rug out from

32:27

under you. And

32:30

I mean, could there be other

32:32

upsets here as well? One particularly

32:34

interesting one maybe is best actor.

32:36

Paul Giamatti was excellent in The

32:38

Holdovers. Could he maybe get it

32:40

over Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer? Quite

32:43

possibly, yes, quite possibly. We could get

32:45

Jeffrey Wright, who finally has the leading

32:47

role in American fiction. And Coleman

32:50

Domingo has done a wonderful job. Bradley

32:52

Cooper's been campaigning since Dennis, since

32:55

September to get

32:57

his nomination as his category. It looks

32:59

unlikely, but it is possible. And my

33:02

bet would be, and this is sneaky,

33:04

but if you're really serious about winning

33:06

your office pool, check what

33:08

the bookies are saying really seriously. Check

33:12

what the bookies are saying and then go

33:14

for the inside answer, whatever that might be.

33:16

I mean, one, you mentioned sort of on

33:18

the best actor category there, there are so

33:20

many interesting ones and it's no different

33:22

for the best actress race, isn't it?

33:25

Also some very interesting nominees. It's maybe

33:27

the biggest question mark, isn't it, in

33:30

terms of who's going to win? You're absolutely

33:32

right. It is the biggest, it really is.

33:34

We all think that Lily Gladstone, it looks

33:36

by all accounts, because she's won everything else

33:38

and she wasn't nominated best, I'm really glad.

33:41

She's won everything else. It's the

33:43

first Native American who will get a

33:46

best actress gong if

33:48

she wins, but she's up against

33:51

Annette Bening for NIAID. Sandra Huler

33:53

did an amazing job of an anatomy

33:56

of a fall and also Zone of Interest,

33:58

and she's nominated here. Keri Mulan. who

34:00

was brilliant in my show. In fact,

34:02

maybe better than Bradley Cooper, dare I

34:04

say. And Emma Stone could actually come

34:06

up in gazumper because people, poor things,

34:09

although it was nominated, I think it

34:11

was nominated for about 11 things,

34:14

11 awards, this

34:16

is the one danger factor

34:19

for that film, for other, for other films.

34:21

I mean poor things could take this, best

34:23

actress or best production

34:25

design. Juan, Karen,

34:28

before we let you go, one final question.

34:30

I mean what can we expect from the

34:32

ceremony itself, the entertainment, the optics of all

34:34

of that? We can

34:37

expect Ryan Gosling singing, singing, singing, or

34:39

Ken and us, or I am Ken,

34:41

probably toward the end of the ceremony

34:44

because they're gonna be saving that, that's the

34:46

one song everybody, excuse me, everybody wants to

34:48

hear. But I think it's gonna be a

34:50

crazy year. I don't think we're

34:52

gonna have any slaps. I think the security will be

34:54

slightly better. But I

34:57

think there's gonna be a few broken hearts and

34:59

a lot of tears. But I think it's gonna be

35:01

a heck of a ride. Everyone wants to hear the

35:04

song, but just finally does that mean Barbie will get

35:06

a song, but not an award. I

35:08

think Barbie will get a song at

35:10

the very least, yes. It

35:13

didn't help that it was such a success,

35:15

which is strange, but never mind. It's a brilliant

35:18

film. Absolutely. Thanks very

35:20

much. That was Karen Krasanovich. You can

35:22

also check out a very special Monocle

35:24

Weekly episode on the Oscars, all

35:27

our favorite interviews from the past year

35:29

with Fernando Augusto Pacheco. And that is

35:31

all the time we have for this

35:33

edition of The Briefing. It was produced

35:35

by Lillian Fawcett. Our researcher was Neoma

35:37

Eque and our studio manager was Tamsin

35:39

Howard. The Briefing is back on Monday

35:41

at the same time. I'm Chris Charmak,

35:43

wishing you all a good weekend, and thanks

35:45

for listening. Go

36:04

to beadaholique.com for all of your beading

36:06

supply needs!