0:00

You are listening to the Dan Patrick Show

0:02

on Fox Sports Radio Our two

0:05

on this Wednesday, Dan and The Dans Dan Patrick

0:07

Show. Reggie Miller will join us coming up a little

0:09

bit later on from inside the Bubble. He

0:12

was there for the Lakers beating the Rockets thirty

0:14

six for Lebron. They go up two games to one,

0:16

heat close out the Bucks. And now

0:19

the drama really begins in Milwaukee

0:21

tonight Raptors Celtics Game six,

0:23

Clippers Nuggets Game four.

0:26

Also, we'll get ready for the

0:28

NFL season it starts tomorrow night. And

0:31

Pro Football Focus is lending one of

0:33

their analysts, one of their experts, to talk

0:36

about certain wind totals over unders.

0:38

I'm sure you'll be quite interested in

0:40

this for entertainment purposes only. Like

0:43

if I said the Jacksonville

0:45

Jaguars over five

0:48

wins, what would you take? You'd

0:51

be surprised what Pro Football Focus

0:53

thinks about the Jags. How about

0:55

the Washington Football Club? How

0:57

many wins would you have them?

1:01

Yeah, you might be surprised. Have that

1:03

for you coming up. And what we wanted is

1:05

Vegas has their win totals the over

1:07

unders, but Pro Football Focus

1:09

does it differently, Like they're not doing

1:12

it for you and trying to get

1:14

the money that's moving

1:16

their line like, they're not looking to

1:18

balance out how much money has bet either for

1:20

or against a team with a wind total. They

1:23

just you know, they do their research and say these

1:25

are the wind totals that they think are going to

1:27

happen coming up. So we'll dive

1:30

into that coming up. In about twenty minutes, I

1:32

mentioned the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks.

1:35

The Bucks won as many games in the Bubble

1:37

as the Phoenix Suns did, and the

1:39

Phoenix Suns didn't make the playoffs. The

1:43

Bucks went eight and ten, the

1:46

Phoenix Suns, who missed the playoffs, went eight

1:48

and oz in the bubble. And

1:51

here's the Greek freak after last night's loss,

1:53

on what his plans are of staying in

1:56

Milwaukee. Nobody's gonna be happy

1:59

for the outcome. We

2:01

had. You

2:04

not play over run, But then you

2:06

got to learn from everything that goes on in

2:09

you're liveing in your career. And hopefully

2:11

we can learn from this and you

2:13

know, get better as a team and

2:16

uh come back and hopefully

2:18

you can build a culture in Milwaukee

2:20

that for many years that we can come

2:23

out here and compete every CD

2:25

for the championship, and that's the

2:27

right thing to say right now, you know, get

2:29

out of the bubble, go home, regroup,

2:32

be with your family, and then just

2:34

stay away from the media and see what happens,

2:37

what the team is planning on doing. What direction

2:39

are they going to go in. Do they make a deal

2:41

for Chris Paul. You know, I've been a

2:43

big proponent of that for a while.

2:46

I thought Chris Paul was what they needed.

2:48

You need to have that experienced guy come

2:50

playoff time, and they do have some pieces

2:53

there. I wouldn't have gotten rid of Malcolm Brogden.

2:56

You know when they say, well four years at

2:58

eighty five million dollars, he was a luxury.

3:00

Well, if I'm spending twenty one

3:03

million dollars on a player, I could do

3:05

a whole lot worse than Malcolm Brogden, and

3:07

you probably wish you had him. Now, I'm gonna

3:09

guess, but Milwaukee, they

3:12

don't move on. The Miami Heat are gonna

3:15

wait for the winner of the Celtics and the Raptors.

3:17

Here's Lebron James after last night's

3:20

win, a ten point win where Rajon

3:22

Rondo looked great in the fourth quarter. Here's

3:25

Lebron. He's been exceptional

3:27

these last two games. Obviously, that first game he hadn't

3:29

played in a while, so it was a fill out game for him just like

3:31

the rest of us. But these last two games

3:33

is everything that we've imagined being in the postseason,

3:36

and for me, you know, being

3:38

in the playoffs and being on a posing

3:41

side of him for so many years, I knew what he is

3:43

capable of, especially in the postseason against those

3:45

battles. So to now be on the same side

3:47

as him and seeing, you know, coming

3:49

together for the both of us and for our team,

3:52

it's perfect. One. Yeah, you need

3:54

that. Rondo is a great

3:56

postseason player, not so much

3:58

regular season. But this is why you brought

4:00

him in. You need to have that guy,

4:03

another guy you can count on. Anthony Davis

4:05

played well, but this is going to come down

4:07

to can Kyle Kuzma step up?

4:10

Who steps up besides Lebron in a d

4:12

and Rondo did last night? And the

4:14

Rockets better grab this next game or

4:16

they're done. And you got, you know,

4:19

both Harden and Westbrook scoring thirty

4:21

and you still didn't pick up the victory.

4:24

Lebron looked great offensively and defensively.

4:27

I still never understood, don't you know,

4:29

still don't understand why he's not a

4:31

better free throw shooter. I

4:33

don't know what his numbers are in the fourth quarter of shooting

4:36

free throws in the postseason, but they

4:38

can't be pretty numbers. And that's

4:40

the one thing where attention to detail

4:42

wanting to be great and not

4:45

being a great free throw shooter. Those

4:48

guys who have the ball, I want to know what

4:50

your free throw percentage is. If you're going to have the

4:53

ball, are you a seventy

4:55

five percent free throw shooter? Are

4:57

you eighty percent free throw shooter? That's

5:00

why you know Harden has the ball. If he gets

5:02

foul, he goes the line, he makes his free throws. Greek

5:04

freak has the ball, gets foul,

5:06

goes to the free throw line, doesn't make his free throws.

5:09

You got to have the guy who has the ball who's

5:12

a great free throw shooter. Yeah,

5:14

Paul, do you think some players are unwilling

5:16

to redo their shooting stroke at the free

5:18

throw line? Because if you practice a bad shooting

5:20

stroke forever, it's not going to get better. You know, Well,

5:23

there are guys that it doesn't look good,

5:26

but the end result is very good. Lebron.

5:29

It looks like he wants to get the free throw over

5:31

with. There are other guys who who

5:34

milk it like they they

5:36

kind of get in their moment and they take

5:38

their time. Lebron, it looks like he wants to

5:40

get it over with. And it's

5:42

not a bad looking shot. I mean, he's never been

5:44

a great shooter. He's he's a great

5:46

scorer, and he's improved his

5:48

three point shooting. But that free throw line,

5:51

I just need, I need. You

5:53

got to make at least seventy eight percent of your

5:55

free throws. Yeah, mcclen. Maybe

5:57

it's because he's tired, because he's doing much

6:00

like last night, he was doing everything. He was

6:02

running around, blacking shots as this. Yeah,

6:04

but boy, it's what are his free throw percentages?

6:07

Wait? Like around you know he was seventy this year.

6:09

Yeah, that's that's just that's not

6:11

acceptable. Like Harding's like eighty five.

6:13

Ye. And that's where he gets the

6:15

ball and he goes to the line and he's

6:17

gonna kill you, and Lebron,

6:20

you're gonna have a game that comes up in the postseason

6:22

where he's gonna be on the line and

6:24

it's going to be a big moment, and

6:28

you know you've got to knock those down. And

6:30

he's not a late in the game

6:33

clutch knockdown free throw shooter. I mean, I'm

6:35

nitpicking here of one of the five

6:37

greatest players to ever play the game. But

6:40

you must improve your free throw shooting

6:43

and he hasn't. Yampo. Yeah,

6:45

if you look at the bubble stats, Janis is

6:47

the second worst three throw shoot on the bubble at fifty

6:49

eight percent, and Lebron's down

6:51

towards the bottom at seventy one percent.

6:53

Anthony Davis is seventy one percent. Yeah, you can't

6:55

have that. You're two best players and you're shooting

6:58

seventy percent from the line and

7:00

they're the ones that have the ball seventy five

7:02

percent of the time. Here's a shocker. Bam out

7:04

of Bio is a eighty seven percent free throw

7:06

shooter in the bubble. Yeah, big dude.

7:08

Yeah, Well, I remember

7:11

when they'd say, well, you know, Shock can't make free

7:13

throws because his hands are so big. Kawhi

7:17

Leonard makes free throws. I

7:19

mean there's a lot of guys who

7:22

make free throws. Yeah, Like Shock's hands

7:24

are so big that he can't shoot a free throw.

7:28

Chris stops Porzingis is a really good free throw

7:30

shooter. Shaq just doesn't have

7:32

good form. There was more of a shot

7:35

put. You know, he didn't have a follow through

7:37

there. That's why he didn't shoot free

7:39

throws. Well, yeah, mc

7:41

brook Lopez fire from free

7:43

throw. Well he

7:46

became a very good shooter. He

7:48

reinvented himself. Yeah see, I wonder

7:50

how much of that is era that you grew

7:52

up in though, like Shack grew up as a big man. Yeah,

7:55

you know, you didn't work on things

7:57

like that because you were always two feet from the basket.

8:00

It. Yeah, but you get fouled and

8:02

then there's nothing more embarrassing than going to the

8:04

line and missing two free throws.

8:07

And that's where you know Will

8:09

Chamberlain, you know, would not

8:11

shoot underhand like he would

8:13

try to shoot and he actually backed

8:16

up to the top of the key. He didn't

8:18

shoot for the free throw line. And

8:20

Rick Barry is one of the great free

8:22

throw shooters of all time, and he shot

8:25

underhand. That there's nothing more

8:27

embarrassing than when you go to the line, everybody's

8:29

watching and you clank a couple of free throws.

8:33

I would rather shoot underhand. If

8:35

I said to Shack, you could shoot underhand and

8:37

shoot eighty percent, or you could

8:39

shoot the way you did and shoot sixty

8:42

percent. A lot

8:44

of these guys, their ego would be I'm not shooting

8:46

underhand. Yeah, but you're gonna make eighty percent.

8:49

I don't care. Yeah. Paul Ben

8:51

Simmons career line,

8:53

and he handles the ball all the time. I don't

8:55

want my star player handling.

8:58

Who handles the ball all the time, who can't shoot free

9:00

throws. I can't

9:02

have that liability in a playoff game

9:05

because it comes down to one or two

9:07

possessions, maybe a big free throw,

9:10

couple free throws make miss

9:12

decide a game, decide if you move on?

9:15

Decided championship? All

9:17

right eight seven seven three d P show email

9:19

address DP Adwanpatrick dot com. Twitter handles

9:21

at DP shows say good morning to peacock or TV

9:24

partners and also a great radio

9:26

affiliates around the country. Numbering three hundred and sixty

9:28

two. Mcloven has a poll question with

9:30

surprising results. All Right, who is most likely

9:32

to be on another team at this time next year?

9:35

The choice is being Jannis, Aaron Rodgers

9:37

or Dak Prescott. Your leader

9:39

Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers forty six

9:41

percent, Jannis thirty two percent, Dak

9:43

twenty percent. Now, I don't think Dak is going anywhere

9:47

unless they felt like, Okay, we didn't achieve

9:49

what we thought we were going to, let's cut ties with him.

9:52

So we're not spending thirty nine million dollars a year

9:54

on Dak Prescott. Let's have Andy Dalton step

9:56

in for a year and

9:59

then we try to figure, y're out what our next you know,

10:01

strategy is as far as quarterbacks go. But

10:04

I expect Dallas to have

10:06

one of the better offenses, one of

10:08

the top five offenses in the NFL. Therefore,

10:11

Dak Prescott should be having a very good

10:14

year. I don't see Dallas moving on.

10:16

I thought this offseason, the longer

10:18

it went that maybe they were saying, you

10:20

know what, he's not in our long term plans. Yeah,

10:23

club, they are a very good offense. I don't

10:25

know, we'll get it is they have like five Pro bowlers on defense?

10:27

Yeah, yeah, Well

10:30

you do become a lot better

10:32

or more recognized because you played for the Cowboys.

10:35

Okay, right, Well,

10:38

Sean Lee for years, it was like, man,

10:40

Sean Lee is a great linebacker. He was a great

10:42

linebacker. Now he was a good linebacker, he couldn't stay

10:45

healthy. But because he played for the Cowboys,

10:47

then all of a sudden he was elb If he

10:49

played for Buffalo, we wouldn't talk about Shawn Lee.

10:53

Well, so who's the current child, DeMarcus

10:56

Lawrence? You get more? He gets

10:58

a lot of them, Yes, he gets. Yeah, absolutely,

11:00

Layton Vanderesh and Jalen Smith a linebacker, they're

11:02

pretty awesome. I like I like Smith. That's a

11:04

great story. Vanderesh is a good story as well.

11:06

But they they're I think

11:09

because they played for the Cowboys, they get far more

11:11

attention and maybe we look

11:13

at them as being better than You

11:15

can't have five Pro Bowl players in that offense

11:18

and you don't make the playoffs,

11:20

like something's done? Not right there? Are

11:22

you truly Pro Bowl players? Because

11:26

the offense outscore the opposition

11:28

by over one hundred points last season? How

11:30

did the defense do with all those Pro bowlers?

11:33

You know, it's bowling off the top of everyone's

11:35

head. The last year the Cowboys made

11:37

the NFC title game, Oh

11:41

geez, I think I know the answer

11:43

to go for it in it's

11:45

ninety three. Yeah, they won the Super

11:47

Bowl that year. Wait, wait, I'm double checking

11:49

here. I know they won in ninety six, right, I'm

11:53

sorry. Yeah, ninety five, ninety five they won the Super bowl S. Yeah,

11:55

ninety five was last time they made the NFC

11:57

title coach, Yeah

12:00

yeah.

12:02

Some other NFL news, Von Miller might be out

12:04

for the season with an ankle injury suffered

12:07

I think on the last play of practice yesterday.

12:10

And you also had DeAndre

12:12

Hopkins getting paid. So Deshaun Watson got

12:14

paid, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt just

12:16

got re upped in Cleveland. I

12:18

don't know where all this money is coming from because

12:21

it feels like but that salary

12:23

cap seems to be going down, going

12:25

to go down by a considerable amount because

12:28

of the loss of revenue this season. Next

12:30

year, even the most serious capologists are going

12:32

to run into trouble because the

12:35

cap in all sports is going to

12:37

go down and go down significantly,

12:40

and that could mean some good teams find themselves in

12:42

a tight situation. When players

12:44

sign deals, they always sound huge,

12:47

right, Every deal sounds like, wow, that's incredible

12:49

and it's kind of monopoly money.

12:51

Then we find out the details and usually the

12:53

guarantee is a lot lower than what we think. It's

12:55

front loaded. They can get out, you know, the last

12:58

couple of years of the deal, but you're

13:01

gonna have to start fascinating

13:03

tightening your financial belts

13:05

here, I think in all sports coming up, Yeah,

13:07

point, I was looking at the Arizona

13:09

Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald. You could find a whole

13:11

bunch of articles from this time in twenty

13:14

sixteen, right before the season. Larry Fitzgerald's

13:16

last season. He's about to announce it his last season.

13:19

It was like the walk off Tour that was three

13:21

years ago. He caught one hundred

13:23

and seven balls, one hundred and nine balls,

13:25

sixty nine balls, seventy five balls the past four

13:27

seasons since it was supposed to be his last

13:29

season, and there's no rumors to him that he's retiring

13:32

anytime soon. Well, I think having Kyler

13:34

Murray helps out. Then you get DeAndre Hopkins

13:36

helps out, and that might extend Larry Fitzgerald's

13:39

career at least two more years this

13:41

season and next season. But he's going to get to

13:43

the point if he has two

13:46

really productive seasons that

13:48

he is going to stay around for a third season to

13:50

go after Jerry Rice's all time record

13:53

for catches because

13:55

he's less than three hundred away. I

13:57

think he's one hundred and seventy one catches away from

13:59

jarr Rice. Oh okay, I

14:01

think that's it. Fifteen forty

14:04

nine to thirteen seventy eight, quick math, I think it's

14:06

one seventy one. Oh okay, it's a

14:08

lot closer than I thought. So seventy

14:11

one to tie Jerry Rice two

14:13

seasons with eighty six catches, I think he would

14:16

be past him.

14:18

Yeah, that's that's the work

14:20

to do. That might be one of those where he

14:23

has to decide if he wants to come back for an entire

14:25

season because he's nine catches away.

14:29

But you, I mean, that's the is that the

14:31

best division in football is

14:33

the NFC West, The best

14:35

division Seattle.

14:40

I think Seattle wins the division. San

14:42

Francisco the Rams to

14:44

me, that may go bad. Arizona

14:48

is on the rise. Yeah, mclub. Is

14:50

there a chance the Rams could go good too? Well?

14:53

I guess there always is. But it

14:55

just feels like you talk about fading,

14:58

like we're not talking about Sean mc the way

15:00

we once did, or Jared Goff the way

15:02

we once did, Cooper Cup

15:05

the way we once did. They don't have Todd Gurley

15:07

anymore. You have Aaron Donald

15:09

there. How

15:11

much talent do you have there? Josh

15:14

Norman fun By the

15:16

way, what was Hard Knocks

15:18

missing this year? It

15:21

just felt like there was no central

15:23

theme other than how are we getting

15:26

by with the coronavirus the

15:28

safety measures that we have. I

15:32

thought Anthony Lynn distinguished himself

15:34

as a leader, you know, the Chargers

15:37

coach. I'd play for him, but

15:40

you know we'd already seen sort of the Sean McVay,

15:42

Jared Goff. There was no preseason that really

15:45

hurt, I think, But I don't know if people

15:47

really care what's going on.

15:50

Jalen Ramsey and the Rams have agreed to a

15:53

new contract extension. We're talking about all

15:55

this money. I don't know where it's coming from. Adam

15:57

Schefter reports that Jalen rams

16:00

He's gonna get a five year, one hundred

16:02

and five million dollar extension averaging

16:05

twenty one million per year, the

16:07

largest contract signed by

16:10

a cornerback. That's coorting to Adam

16:12

Schefter. Yes, McLevin, I would say on

16:14

Harddocks last night, they did a little bit on Derwin

16:16

James, the Charger safety got hurt. You they're

16:18

saying he's They showing some footage

16:21

that he might be the best defensive player in

16:23

the defensive back in the league. He

16:25

was dominant and the fact that he got hurt is so tragic

16:28

in a way. Yeah, but he was injury prone I

16:30

think going into the draft. Therefore, that's why the

16:32

Chargers got him where they did. They were talking

16:34

about him. Have you heard about him? Is that kind

16:36

of glowing player like yeah, knew ad Read kind

16:38

of type. Yeah, yeah,

16:40

they really special

16:43

player. That's a shame with the Chargers. They have so

16:45

many interesting players, Bosa, Melvin

16:47

Ingram, I know Nick

16:50

and Arizona. Hi, Nick, what do you have for me today?

16:53

Hey? Go adb six feet two

16:55

hundred. They

16:58

going back to the NBA. You would added

17:00

earlier about CP three saying you don't

17:02

see him with okay, See, I was

17:04

just chat with my buddies and he's old,

17:06

like forty million over the next two years,

17:09

where do you see him going? It's not okay?

17:11

See, I just thought that

17:13

a great spot for him would be Milwaukee.

17:15

And thanks for the calling, Nick, And I don't

17:17

have any insight information on that.

17:19

That's just a gut feeling that I

17:22

was so impressed by Chris Paul this

17:25

year and the fact

17:27

that he got kicked to the curb. And you

17:30

know, I don't think Oklahoma City realized what

17:32

they had because I think they

17:34

thought, maybe, hey, we'll take Chris Paul

17:36

and we're in a rebuild, and then all of a sudden

17:38

they're in the playoffs and Chris Paul is playing extremely

17:41

well, and then you go to seven games against

17:43

the Rockets. I don't

17:45

know how much longer Chris Paul wants to play. Obviously,

17:47

with the two years and forty million dollars or whatever

17:50

he's owed, Milwaukee would be

17:52

maybe a great maybe

17:55

a great destination for him

17:58

and helping the Greek freak because

18:00

Chris can play half court and regular

18:04

seasons. One thing postseason

18:06

basketball, it's about half court. We'll

18:08

take a break the over unders

18:10

this year on some teams. How

18:12

many wins do you have for the Patriots? How

18:15

about Jacksonville? Are they truly tanking? How

18:17

about Washington who will be the worst team in

18:19

the NFL and some surprising

18:21

win totals. Will dive into that with

18:23

the help of Pro Football Focus. That'll

18:25

be coming up. Reggie Miller in an hour from now,

18:28

it's twenty after the hour here on the Dan Patrick Show.

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20:01

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Mercedes AMG Driving Performance. This

20:13

just in ACC coaches

20:16

will propose an all inclusive

20:18

NCAA tournament. According

20:20

to sources telling Jeff Goodman, the

20:23

coaches just finished the call and voted unanimously

20:26

on this. What's nice? The

20:28

ACC is running college basketball. Shouldn't

20:31

they ask a couple other people about this?

20:33

The ACC says, Oh, everybody's in

20:35

the NCAA tournament. Everybody's in the pool

20:38

and probably prefer the NC

20:41

Double A is involved in. The NC Double A runs

20:44

March madness. You know where's the Power five

20:46

conferences? They run the football

20:49

program. Yes, the NCAA has completely

20:51

disappeared for the better part of the year. Yes, so I

20:54

actually I think it's nice that the ACC

20:56

somebody's stepping up and being like, hey, have we thought

20:58

about March and maybe looking at a tournament. Here's

21:01

what we propose. Yes, Paully, how

21:03

many Division one college basketball

21:05

teams do you think there are? I was way

21:07

low. My number

21:10

in my head was like two hundred and twenty. Like

21:13

these are Division one, Division one men's

21:16

basketball programs, three

21:18

thirty three, fifty and

21:20

climbing. There's seven more transitioning

21:23

from D two to D one. The

21:25

tournament's got to start an hour and a half ago. Yes,

21:27

Todd, what if you're a bracket tagiers, you're pretty much out

21:29

of the street and homeless that there's no bubble

21:32

teams? Who's in? Who's at everybody's We

21:34

don't need you anymore. Joe Lenardi's

21:36

out of work. We just put him

21:38

out of work. Everybody's day, there's no

21:40

bubble teams fund. Yeah,

21:43

all right, Um, I'm always

21:45

curious for you know, entertainment purposes

21:48

since I don't bet anymore. Like over unders,

21:50

we always talk about over unders. We're looking at. Is

21:52

Jacksonville tanking? How many games can

21:54

they possibly win? What about Washington?

21:57

PAULI thinks the Raiders are going to be one of the three

21:59

worst teams in football record

22:01

wise. George Truery of

22:03

Pro Football Focus he's the director of content

22:06

co host of the Pro Football Focus Forecast,

22:09

and he joins us, Now, your job is crunching

22:11

numbers here, George, So let

22:13

me start with over unders. Now, your overunders

22:15

are different than what Vegas has. But

22:18

what are the metrics that you have in trying

22:20

to come up with what is going to be the win

22:22

total for teams? Yeah?

22:24

I mean Vegas is pretty good at what they

22:27

do. Obviously, when we try and figure

22:29

it out, we simulate the season ten

22:31

thousand times, and we have our own power numbers

22:34

that are built off of the PFF grading that

22:36

largely goes into determining who wins these

22:39

games, and then we look at them compare those to the

22:41

Vegas total. We say, okay, how what

22:43

percent of the time is this team going to win more

22:46

or less than the Vegas

22:48

win total, and then we go spend all our

22:50

money. All right, how much is

22:52

this year's prediction based off last year

22:55

for a team? A decent amount, A decent amount, I

22:57

mean, how good a team is the year

22:59

before is largely

23:01

indicative of what they'll be this year. But we

23:03

shouldn't forget that those teams tend to regress

23:06

a little bit. So we probably have really

23:08

rose colored glasses when we look at the Chiefs,

23:11

and we probably feel not so great

23:13

about the Texans, and maybe we should temper

23:15

those a little bit. All right, let me start at the bottom.

23:19

The team that will have the fewest wins this year

23:21

will be. This pains

23:23

me because I actually like the Jaguars. I like Gardner

23:25

Minshew, but that is the odds

23:28

on favorite. I'll give you a sleeper though I

23:30

think the Panthers are very close. I

23:32

do not think the Panthers are very good.

23:34

We have them with just a few tenths of a win

23:37

more on average than the

23:39

applementioned Jaguars. The tough thing

23:41

for the Jaguars they keep shipping out talent,

23:44

but they have a quarterback in Gardner Minshew

23:46

who people think is just languishing

23:48

there. He are in the highest grade of any rookie

23:51

quarterback last season. He's not bad. He's an

23:53

accurate thrower of the football and that

23:55

often wins you a certain number of games. So

23:57

I do think it'll be closer than people think. All Right, The

23:59

over under for those teams is what five?

24:02

Yeah, so I believe for the Jaguars

24:05

it's four and a half, which is

24:07

really low. And are you saying take the over

24:09

for the Jags? It's

24:12

tough because do you want to sit there and watch a team tanking.

24:14

It's not one of my favorites. If I had to take

24:16

over or under, I would definitely go over,

24:18

though, Okay, what is your favorite

24:21

team for over under? This

24:23

is tough because earlier in the season,

24:25

earlier in the offseason, I would have said the Lions.

24:28

The Lions, I believe were six and a half to

24:30

open, and we were on them right away

24:32

because Matt Stafford was tremendous last year,

24:35

second highest graded quarterback from a clean pocket

24:37

before he got injured. That offense was awesome

24:40

and then everyone you know saw them just

24:42

be terrible down the stretch. But they're a good team. Six

24:44

and a half. It's now seven. I still like

24:47

the over there. We have them clearing that total

24:49

like sixty five percent of the time. And

24:51

then another one. I think you guys mentioned

24:54

them earlier, the Washington football team.

24:56

I got that right and proud of myself there five,

24:58

five and a half depending on where you look. This

25:01

is kind of a fade on the Eagles

25:03

as well. Not super

25:05

high on them. I think they're going to struggle a little bit.

25:07

The Giants obviously not the greatest team in the world,

25:10

and what they did last year with Jay

25:12

Gruden and Met debacle, I expect

25:15

Dwayne Haskins to look more like he did after

25:17

the bye when he was a top ten grade quarterback.

25:19

How many wins you're saying take the over for

25:21

Washington? I would take the over. I would take the over.

25:24

Yeah, what's the surprising

25:26

win total? You

25:28

know that you look at that, maybe they're better

25:30

than expected. Better

25:33

than expected. I mean there

25:36

are a couple here. I would say one that sticks

25:38

out to me a team that I think is

25:41

probably overvalued by the market a little

25:43

bit surprisingly is the Ravens.

25:46

The Ravens win totals eleven and a half, and they

25:48

I mean they were all just fantastic

25:50

last year. Obviously fourteen wins, but they

25:53

had great game scripts. They were the

25:55

only team that ran fewer

25:57

than one hundred plays when trailing in the first half.

26:00

They just never had to throw the ball, so

26:02

Lamar Jackson was always in control. If

26:04

they win eleven games this year, that would

26:06

be an impressive season. I think Lamar could

26:09

improve and they win eleven or

26:11

fewer games this season. Yeah, I'm

26:13

right there with you on that. It felt like that was

26:15

a little aggressive with the Ravens. I

26:17

think the Steelers are going if you know Ben is

26:19

back and if Ben is healthy. I don't know what you

26:21

think of the Steelers. Do you like the Steelers and the Browns

26:24

more? As far as a win total, I

26:27

have them. We have them right there, neck and neck,

26:30

very very close. I would Lean Browns

26:32

our simulation Leans Browns. And here's

26:34

why Ben Roethlisberger we go

26:36

back two years to think about when

26:38

he was at the top of his game. But

26:41

he struggled two years ago

26:43

and at the start of last year and then

26:45

got hurt. And they don't have Antonio Brown

26:47

anymore. Juju Smith Schuster did

26:49

not look like the guy that he did alongside

26:52

Antonio Brown last season, So

26:54

I'm going to temper those expectations on the Steelers

26:56

just a bit. Plus, I think they had forty

26:58

one turnovers. That number is going

27:01

to regress. I mean, they're a great defense, but you're just not

27:03

going to get that kind of turnover luck. I

27:05

was wondering about the Rams, like I just

27:08

it feels like they're middle of the road, you

27:11

know. It feels like everybody jumped off the

27:13

Super Bowl bandwagon and I don't know where

27:15

we are with I think Seattle

27:17

might be the class in that division as opposed

27:19

to San Francisco. But your thoughts on

27:22

the NFC West. The

27:24

NFC West is an interesting

27:27

one to me because the Niners

27:29

they're ten and a half. I could definitely

27:32

see. I feel like they are a team that

27:34

the under is a smart play there. The simulation

27:37

would back that up as well. So I'm

27:39

under on the Niners a little bit. The Rams,

27:41

that number has come down. I believe it opened at

27:44

eight and a half and that number has come down.

27:46

We bet it earlier in the year,

27:48

and that number has just shot down. They did

27:50

not invest in their offensive line. That was the one

27:52

thing they had to get better at. They

27:54

didn't invest in it. So I'm pretty worried about

27:56

the Rams. Would not surprise me if

27:58

they're the worst team in the c West after

28:01

this season, it really wouldn't. What about

28:03

the Packers? Sorry

28:06

say that again? What about the Packers? So

28:09

the Packers are tricky because they're a team

28:11

that we look at their draft and

28:14

we go, Okay, they drafted poorly, or at

28:16

least many people think they drafted poorly. But

28:18

the draft doesn't impact that following

28:21

season as much as we want to believe. They

28:23

still have the best quarterback

28:26

in that division. They still have Davante

28:29

Adams, the best receiver in that

28:31

division, and they have probably

28:33

the best defense in that division as well,

28:35

and running

28:38

back for what that matters, maybe both of them.

28:40

And so I am, I

28:43

look at the Vikings and I go, is that really

28:45

the team that's going to dethrone the Packers? They're

28:47

bringing in like twenty draft picks,

28:49

you know, so talk about continuity there. I

28:52

know that you know in some places the Vikings

28:54

are the favorite, and I would

28:56

I would lead Packers there. Do

28:58

you rank quarterbacks? Of

29:01

course, number one quarterback

29:03

is Patrick Mahomes. Number

29:06

two is Russell Wilson.

29:08

Okay, number three this

29:12

is where it gets tricky for me. Number

29:15

three for this season? Now,

29:18

is this opinion or numbers here? George,

29:20

Well, look, we can do both.

29:23

We ranked them based on PFF

29:25

grade from last season, and then we

29:27

regress a little bit to what we expect them

29:29

to be this season. So our number three quarterback

29:32

just purely based on numbers heading into

29:34

the season, as Drew brees. But if

29:36

you're looking at you know it's me to project it for

29:38

it a little bit. I hesitate there. I'm just

29:40

not sold that he can sustain it long

29:43

term. What about Dak Prescott? Dak

29:46

is tough because he was a guy that graded tenth

29:48

last year and the

29:50

numbers looked really good for the Cowboys.

29:53

They were the best team in terms of yards

29:55

per pass play, but it didn't materialize

29:57

when it really mattered. If I

29:59

had I would take him in that seven

30:02

to ten range. But he's not top five

30:04

for me. What about MVP? Do you rank

30:06

MVP candidates? I

30:08

looked at this right before I came on because I was hoping

30:11

you'd ask me. So Mahomes I believe

30:13

is five to one right now and

30:15

he should be the favorite, But those odds are

30:17

just way too Steep. A

30:19

couple of values that I think are there.

30:21

Russell Wilson, who I believes

30:23

fourteen to one, we would make him more like eleven

30:26

to one. He should have been

30:28

by our wins about replacement metric the

30:31

MVP last season. Now, Lamar Jackson was incredible

30:33

statistically, but what Russell Wilson

30:35

does as a passer generates more

30:38

value. I think he's got a great shot and then

30:40

a long shot for you, this will surprise

30:42

some people. He's thirty three to one. Matt

30:44

Ryan. Think about this. If

30:47

that Falcons team puts it together on offense

30:49

and they somehow win that

30:51

division, and there's some questions

30:53

there continuity for Tampa

30:55

Bay Drew Brees. Can he sustain

30:58

that would give him a real shot to be

31:00

the most efficient pass from the league, which often is

31:02

what determines who wins MVP. And I

31:04

know you brought up Russell Wilson and I've

31:07

been a big proponent of him. You

31:09

know, what he does for his team is more

31:11

than any other quarterback in my opinion. But

31:13

you also have to factor in storyline. Lamar Jackson

31:16

was a great storyline, so to win the

31:18

MVP, the writers love

31:20

to have a great story a news story, a fresh story,

31:22

and Lamar Jackson was certainly that and

31:25

I think that that factored in he had a great season.

31:28

I don't know if he was anymore. He wasn't

31:30

more valuable to his team, in my opinion than

31:32

Russell was. To Seattle, you're

31:35

spot on right. You're trying to predict what people are

31:37

going to feel. Yeah. Lamar Jackson, though,

31:39

to me, is he's a freak. So

31:42

how do you predict freak events? Right?

31:44

That's hard to do. So take the guy

31:46

who, in Russell Wilson, honestly has been

31:49

overlooked for a while. I agree with you wholeheartedly.

31:51

He does so much for that team, and there's

31:53

going to be a little bit more of a focus on them this

31:55

year. I think, given how close they were

31:58

last year. They've got Jamal Adams adds

32:00

a little bit more of star power to that team.

32:03

And we all talk about this with regard to Pete

32:05

Carroll wanting him to let Russ

32:07

cook a little bit, you know, let him throw the

32:09

ball on early downs a little bit more because he's

32:11

so efficient. Maybe he leans into it.

32:13

I have to think Carroll listens

32:16

that he wants to embrace change,

32:18

so maybe he gives him a few more passing attempts. Who's

32:20

your super Bowl pick? This

32:23

one is? This is tough for me because

32:25

I am from the Bay Area, so I

32:28

suffered through that nine or Super

32:30

Bowl. I want to see them go back, but I

32:32

believe it will be Chiefs Seahawks

32:35

in the Super Bowl. WHOA Yeah?

32:38

You do? You guys ever get in fight like

32:42

all the time? Yeah? That's what we

32:44

have a you know, a company slack chat, and

32:47

it's really just arguing about stats

32:49

all day long. Any any punch has

32:51

ever thrown? Well, thanks

32:54

to the pandemic, no, because no one

32:56

can reach anybody in

32:59

previous years. George, was there any

33:02

get tempers? Flaire? You

33:04

know, the funny thing is that people get

33:06

way more, way more angry

33:09

and full themselves online, and then when

33:11

you're in the King, things calmed

33:13

down a little bit. That's why I always like having

33:15

people talk it out, you know, on a podcast as

33:17

supposed to Twitter, because it tends to

33:19

mellow people out a little bit. Great stuff,

33:21

George, enjoy the season. We appreciate your time

33:25

anytime. Dan. Thank you. That's George Truy,

33:27

Pro Football Focused Director of Content, co

33:29

host of Pro Football Focused Forecast,

33:33

joining us. You know, people love the Lions,

33:35

and they talk about Matthew Stafford

33:37

before he got hurt, that he was playing

33:39

the best football of his career. Falcons,

33:42

I think are sneaky to make the playoffs.

33:45

I agree with Carolina, Jacksonville,

33:47

Washington probably going to fight it out for

33:50

the number one. You know, what does Washington

33:53

do if they have five wins

33:55

and they end up with a number one pick, do

33:57

they take Trevor Lawrence? Carolina

34:00

does have Teddy Bridgewater. If they have

34:02

the number one pick, you're taking Trevor Lawrence,

34:06

Jacksonville Gardner. Minshew is good,

34:09

but he's not great. He's

34:12

not Trevor Lawrence. And

34:14

if you don't have a marquee star quarterback,

34:17

then you don't have a franchise. You gotta

34:19

have that guy that everybody knows. Hey,

34:22

when you think of that team, how many teams? When

34:24

I say that team, do you think of somebody

34:27

other than the quarterback? So

34:30

if I just run down the list, if I go

34:33

Lions, Matthew Stafford, Steelers,

34:37

Ben Roethlisberger, Packers,

34:39

Aaron Rodgers, Patriots,

34:41

Cam Newton, Tampa Bay, Tom Brady,

34:44

Saints, Drew Brees. Now I

34:46

get to the Chargers. You may go Bosa,

34:48

I may go to the Niners, and I may go Bosa,

34:51

I may go Rams and I go Aaron Donald

34:53

Seattle, Russell Wilson, Kyler

34:56

Murray in Arizona, the Bears

35:00

Khalil Mack. So

35:03

you gotta have that quarterback Carolina,

35:06

Christian McCaffrey, the

35:10

Texans, Deshaun Watson Indianapolis.

35:15

I guess Philip Rivers just because he got

35:17

there. But Quentin

35:20

Nelson, Yeah, well I don't I

35:23

don't know if your luck Yeah,

35:25

paper Manning, Honestly, you're really still thinking.

35:27

I'm glad to remember me. All

35:30

right, let me take a break here. I

35:32

hope you enjoyed that segment because I wanted

35:35

to have, you know, Pro Football Focus to such

35:37

a great job. I wanted to know not

35:39

what Vegas is saying is the over under,

35:41

because I wanted you to use the information you got

35:43

from Pro Football Focus, then look

35:45

at the Vegas over unders. We'll

35:48

come back after this Reggie Millner next hour

35:50

from the Bubble. Thanks for listening to The Dan Patrick

35:52

Show podcast. Be sure to catch us live

35:54

every weekday morning nine until noon eastern

35:56

six to nine Pacific on Fox Sports Radio,

35:59

and you can find it. So in the iHeartRadio

36:01

app at FSR or

36:03

stream us live on the Peacock app. Get

36:05

a couple of phone calls in here. West in Michigan,

36:08

he's all over the Detroit Lions over

36:10

under high Wes, Hey,

36:12

how's it going. Before

36:15

I get started here, I'd like to say I try

36:17

to remain positive about my Detroit

36:19

Lions twenty two

36:21

right now, but it's hard when

36:23

everybody aunt's, uncle's

36:25

mom, dad says, yeah, this is

36:28

sixty years of this in

36:30

the state. We have this philosophy, same

36:33

old Lions, whether that be the ref screws

36:35

us up, just countless

36:37

am ona, just mistakes GM,

36:40

bad decisions if

36:43

he use and I respect Pro

36:46

Football focus, but I

36:48

think for that six I think with six

36:50

six and a half wins, you've

36:52

got to use the sixty year old, same

36:55

old Lions excuse and know that there's

36:57

no way, no way they hit that number.

37:00

Well. If Stafford stays healthy,

37:02

thank you, West, and you know this coaching

37:05

staff is all in this year because if it didn't

37:07

go well this year, you're probably looking at a new coaching

37:09

staff there. Stafford played well,

37:12

extremely well when he was healthy,

37:15

and they got weapons in

37:17

that division. I don't know what Green Bay is going

37:19

to be. Minnesota should be formidable.

37:22

I don't know what to expect out of Chicago. Maybe

37:25

you can eke out seven wins there. Maybe

37:29

you know, you go back to the seventies and

37:32

that's when quarterbacks were not the

37:34

stars in the NFL. Late seventies, the biggest

37:36

stars were Tony Dorset, Earl Campbell,

37:39

Walter Payton, and then the

37:41

West Coast offense in the Niners changed

37:44

everything. When you think about it,

37:47

they ushered in the quarterback era because

37:49

quarterbacks in the seventies they were

37:51

more game managers, you

37:54

know, if you had you know, even

37:56

early or late sixties, early seventies,

37:58

Bart Star h, Bob

38:01

Greasy like, they weren't guys who put

38:03

up big numbers. And then all of a sudden,

38:05

it's Montana, Marino, Elway

38:07

Fouts and then we never

38:09

looked back. It became a quarterback league

38:12

after that. Here we are now, it's

38:14

definitely a quarterback league. Estebon

38:17

in California. Esteban, Welcome to the program.

38:20

Good morning, Dan, Good morning Danetts. Just

38:23

first off, thank you for the show. It's been it's

38:26

been a blessing um for the time, right

38:28

now just want to say I

38:30

am I am active duty military,

38:32

sixty five inches, one hundred and sixty five

38:34

pounds. I

38:38

just wanted to issue a pie

38:41

in the face challenge to

38:43

Paulie for his egregious take on my

38:45

Raiders of going

38:47

over or under. So I kind of want to raise

38:49

the bar a little bit at nine

38:52

and I'll take the over. Uh, And

38:55

if he takes the under and wins, I'll get two

38:57

pies into my in my face from my fellow

38:59

Marine and it's uh, if

39:01

you lose this man that Dan, i'd like YouTube.

39:04

Okay, paul are you willing to accept Esteban's

39:07

wager there? Of course? What it sounds like a

39:09

good guy as a fan of his team, good soldier, I'm

39:11

glad to take the bet. Okay, So the over under

39:14

you're taking over nine wins

39:16

for the Raiders, Esteban, Yes,

39:19

do you want to just hit yourself in the save

39:23

us a lot of time? Thank you for service?

39:27

All right? All right, we'll file it away and

39:29

then uh, we'll get to the point of

39:31

the regular season when the Raiders won't

39:33

be able to get to ten wins, and then you call in

39:36

and we'll make sure that you video take

39:38

that with your fellow Marines peppering you with a couple

39:40

of paws. That'd be awesome.

39:42

All right, Well, thank you, este Yes, you

39:44

like the Raiders, you like the Blast Year. I'm

39:46

just trying to spice this up a little.

39:49

I'm so into this bet. This has made I love all

39:51

these bets are making everything worth watching it. Pie

39:53

to the face with Esteban. So he's

39:55

got the Raiders have to win ten the

39:59

over when when you say they're gonna go over nine,

40:01

that means they're going to ten. Yeah,

40:03

pulling and being a marine, we're

40:06

calling us bet semper pie, semper

40:09

fi, that's a marine. That's a marine.

40:11

Say he'll like that. The

40:14

Marines in the audience. You're like, yeah, yeah,

40:19

everyone knows. My

40:22

dad was a marine and I didn't know it, but

40:25

I look it's gonna go well

40:27

in the middle of the marine communities. Yeah, we're

40:30

big in the Marine corps. A

40:32

few good men, semper pie, yeah,

40:35

semper pie. See that would

40:37

have been a todd one and I would have went, let's

40:39

put this way. If you see a guy who's got a semper

40:41

five bumper sticker, yeah, don't get in a

40:43

fight with the just a great piece of advice. Yeah,

40:46

but I think the Navy's seal. Now, do you worry about

40:48

the Navy's seal or the ranger? The Army

40:51

ranger? My dad was an airborne ranger in the Army.

40:53

They seemed to be pretty tough. They were more

40:56

like gutsy because they jumped out of planes daily.

40:58

I don't know how you know if they were. The Navy

41:01

seal makes me nervous

41:04

because they could kill you with a toothbrush, like they're underwater

41:06

and like they're they're doing stuff like

41:09

they're they're kind of the mcgiver of the military.

41:11

They're gonna get something done. You don't know how

41:13

they're getting it done, but they're getting it done. I'd

41:15

be nervous about a Navy seal, Navy

41:19

seal or college

41:22

wrestler in a bar.

41:26

Wrestlers won't kill you. They'll break

41:29

stuff and bend stuff and halliflower

41:32

your ear. Yeah. Whenever I would see the cauliflower

41:34

ear, I just went, oh, hey, can I get you

41:36

a beer? Yeah? Mcloving

41:39

side pole question, which will we screw up more

41:41

this year? Las Vegas Raiders or Washington

41:43

Football team? Washington Football team,

41:47

because we still I call him

41:49

the Washington Football Club because

41:54

I joked about that prior to them

41:56

naming themselves the Washington Football

41:58

Team. I said they should just do what'ser does,

42:00

make it the Washington Football Club.

42:03

And then it was like a day later, it's like Paul

42:06

goes, do you hear Washington's nickname?

42:08

I go, no, what

42:10

is it? And he goes the Washington Football Team.

42:13

I go, no, it's not. He goes, yeah, it's Washington

42:15

Football Team. And I'd been joking calling

42:18

Washington Football Club. You

42:20

want to keep that same pole question as we go into the final

42:22

hour, we can mix it up. Who's

42:25

most likely not to be on the same team a year from

42:27

now? Aaron Rodgers still leading, then

42:29

Yannis. Yeah, we could get into some

42:32

of these over under NFL questions.

42:34

I like this Raiders there. I'm looking at the breaking

42:36

down their schedule nine and seven if all goes well.

42:38

Yeah, but nine and seven won't win. Esteban

42:41

the bet they got to go ten and six

42:43

if all goes well. Well.

42:45

So check in with Redgie Miller. He

42:47

was there as the Lakers beat the Rockets last night

42:49

thirty six for Lebron One

42:51

more hour to go on this Wednesday Dan Patrick

42:53

Show,