0:06

Welcome, everybody. Hope you're doing well wherever

0:09

you're listening or watching today. You may

0:11

not be stunned to hear that Fox

0:13

News anchors were completely

0:15

stunned and perplexed by

0:18

the fact that on MSNBC

0:20

and NBC, there were

0:22

anchors who in expressing

0:25

some modicum of journalistic

0:27

integrity had the gall

0:29

and the audacity to say, hey,

0:31

we don't think Ronna McDaniel should be

0:33

working here. We covered this yesterday. Former

0:35

RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, after working alongside

0:38

Trump to try to set up a

0:40

fake slate of electors in order to

0:42

steal the 2020 presidential election, which Donald

0:44

Trump did not win. After

0:47

all of that, she quit the

0:49

RNC, got hired at NBC as

0:51

a political analyst and

0:53

then a number of NBC hosts,

0:56

Chuck Todd, Joe

0:58

Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski and others expressed

1:01

that they don't think Ronna McDaniel

1:03

should be there. This came

1:05

as a total and complete shock

1:07

to Bill Hemmer and others on Fox

1:09

News. They just they can't

1:12

believe that you would

1:14

see this sort of insubordination. It's shocking

1:16

that some people might have some principles

1:19

that they publicly express. Listen to this.

1:21

Mike Daniel, former head of the RNC,

1:23

apparently was hired by NBC. Apparently,

1:26

I don't know if she's going to keep her job or

1:28

not. But apparently their heads were

1:30

blowing off yesterday. This

1:32

is a little bit of what happened on what meet

1:34

the press and then morning Joe a bit earlier today.

1:38

I have no idea whether any answer she gave to you

1:41

was because she didn't want to mess up her

1:43

contract. She has credibility issues that she

1:45

still has to deal with. Is

1:48

she speaking for herself or is she speaking on

1:50

behalf of who's paying her? We weren't asked our

1:52

opinion of the hiring, but if we were, we

1:54

would have strongly objected to it for several reasons.

1:57

We hope NBC will reconsider

1:59

its decision. It goes

2:01

without saying that she will not

2:03

be a guest on Morning Joe in her

2:05

capacity as a paid contributor.

2:10

Turn this around. If

2:12

somebody said this at Fox News, they'd

2:15

be walked out the door. Yeah, this

2:17

is unbelievable. This is enormous

2:20

insubordination. The

2:22

highest standard is

2:25

that we behave the way the

2:27

bosses want to behave. It's stunning

2:29

insubordination. How dare they allow this?

2:31

You would expect something like this from Joe

2:33

Scarborough. He's a far left opinion commentator, but

2:35

I was really by the way, Joe

2:38

Scarborough is a former Republican congressman.

2:41

If Joe Scarborough is now far

2:43

left, is anyone on the right

2:45

would be my question. It's appointed to

2:47

your Chuck Todd, someone who is a journalist, comment

2:49

on this in that fashion. Here is

2:51

what I would ask him as a journalist. Look, you're a

2:54

journalist, Chuck Todd. By the way,

2:56

now, Kaylee Maganany says she's a

2:58

journalist. What?

3:00

What? Everything is backwards. Who

3:03

at your network at NBC or MSNBC

3:05

represents the 46.7 percent of the country

3:07

that tells real clear politics average when

3:09

you look at all the polls, we

3:12

support Trump. I couldn't find and

3:14

I look today a single person on their roster

3:16

that represents that really half of the country. Ron

3:18

and McDaniel, I saw her hiring and I was

3:20

like, good for them. She does represent that wing

3:22

of the party. We need the

3:24

insurrectionist election stealer wing

3:26

of the party represented.

3:28

Otherwise they're taking my

3:30

freeze peach. But if

3:32

you can't accept her, who would you accept? Who would you

3:34

accept? I also I was thinking the

3:37

same thing, Bill. Like if you have a problem with your

3:39

employer, like you do that publicly.

3:42

I would I would I would never

3:44

do that. If you have a problem like that.

3:46

They are so willing to to stick

3:48

with their ideology and to be so rigid in

3:50

it that they are willing to do that to

3:52

their employer. They are

3:55

so rigid and willing to

3:57

stick to their ideology. There's

3:59

another interpretation. for that. They

4:01

aren't going to be

4:03

bamboozled into shutting their

4:06

mouths. They probably did

4:08

express discontent privately. NBC

4:10

still hired Ronna McDaniel. And now

4:12

they're in the position of jeopardizing

4:14

their own integrity by having to

4:16

pretend to do the stupid little

4:18

interview with Ronna McDaniel like she's

4:20

a normal person rather than an

4:22

insurrectionist anti-democratic force in the magga

4:25

wing of the Republican Party. So

4:27

they are going public. Now,

4:29

maybe they'll get fired. That's their

4:31

problem. NBC could take the

4:33

side of Ronna McDaniel and

4:36

say we're firing Chuck Todd and Joe Scarborough

4:38

and Mika Brzezinski and Rachel Maddow yesterday had

4:40

a segment on this. We're firing all of

4:42

them and we're going to keep the insurrectionist

4:44

here. I doubt it. And

4:47

what those individuals are doing, and it doesn't

4:49

mean that they're perfect. It doesn't mean NBC

4:51

is perfect. If NBC were perfect, they never

4:53

would have hired Ronna McDaniel to begin with,

4:55

you could argue, but they are speaking their

4:57

minds and it is beyond the pale, according

5:00

to these Fox News anchors. It's quite it's

5:02

quite stunning to see the reversal of

5:04

morality that is taking place there. We'll

5:07

see what happens with Ronna McDaniel and

5:09

appellate court saved Donald

5:12

Trump. Remember that thing about the

5:14

two tiered justice system? Trump continues

5:16

to benefit from it. A court has saved

5:19

Trump, dropped his bond

5:21

more than 60 percent and

5:23

has given him 10 additional days to come

5:25

up with the money. It's important

5:27

to mention, as we look at the New

5:29

York Washington Post coverage of this, important

5:32

to mention that both sides are considering this a

5:34

win. Remember Trump previously

5:36

faced a requirement to

5:38

post a nearly half a billion dollar bond

5:41

to stop the New York attorney general

5:43

from starting to seize his assets. And the

5:45

deadline was yesterday. Trump went to court yesterday.

5:47

We have coverage of the press conference he

5:50

gave afterwards, the things he was trothing, posting

5:52

to Truth Central while he was there. But

5:55

the bottom line is that the appeals court

5:57

said Trump will be allowed to post a

6:00

hundred and seventy five million dollar bond rather

6:02

than the four hundred and fifty million. And

6:05

he is going to have ten additional days

6:07

to come up with that money. So

6:09

two sides to this. On

6:12

the one hand, Trump and his acolytes are

6:14

saying this is a win. They got

6:16

it reduced 60 percent. They got more time. Now

6:18

Trump can raise money, find money, go to Russia

6:20

for money. Who the hell knows what he plans

6:22

to do? On the other hand, Letitia

6:25

James and others are saying this is a win

6:27

for them because even the appellate

6:30

court in giving Trump 10 more days

6:32

and giving him the reduction is

6:34

still saying you have to come up with hundreds

6:36

of millions of dollars and this isn't going to go

6:38

away. I think that most

6:40

important takeaway here is yet

6:43

again, eight years of

6:45

this stuff of Trump claiming he's

6:47

the biggest victim in the world,

6:49

treated so unfairly to your justice

6:51

system, which is bad for Republicans.

6:54

And yet it is Trump who continues

6:56

to benefit from the two tier justice

6:58

system. Because remember, if

7:00

you as a normal person had

7:03

ninety one felony counts against

7:05

you in four different jurisdictions,

7:07

do you think you'd even be out on

7:10

bail or do you think you'd

7:12

be sitting in jail rotting, waiting for

7:14

the trials to start, especially if you

7:16

owned a private plane, which, of course,

7:18

by owning the plane, you no longer

7:20

are any random person. You're someone special.

7:23

But that is an example of the two

7:25

tier justice system benefiting Donald Trump. If you

7:27

or I regularly violated

7:30

clear and deliberate unquestioning

7:33

gag orders, don't attack

7:35

my staff, don't

7:37

attack court personnel, don't attack

7:40

the plaintiff. If we violated

7:42

gag orders this regularly, do

7:45

you think we would suffer no penalties

7:47

the way Trump has suffered no penalties

7:49

for all the times he violated the

7:51

gag orders? No, that's Trump benefiting from

7:53

the two tier justice system. It's not

7:55

Democrats and Republicans. It's rich, powerful guy

7:57

with top notch lawyers and everybody else.

8:00

And then here, does anybody get

8:02

60 percent off and more time to

8:05

come up with the money? Some

8:07

people get extensions, some people get reductions, but

8:09

we're talking about a reduction here to the

8:11

tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. So

8:13

even though both sides can claim this as

8:15

a win, in reality, it is a major

8:17

win for Trump, who by the

8:19

way, spent all morning insulting the judge

8:21

on truth toilet. I'm sorry, on truth

8:23

central, which we'll get to in

8:25

a moment. It is a win for Trump. The question

8:28

is, does he even have the 175 million?

8:31

He insists he does, although

8:33

his lawyers said in court filings that he

8:35

doesn't. But does he now

8:37

have the ability to make this new lower bond?

8:40

We will wait. We will see he's got

8:42

10 days. So let's take a quick break. We'll

8:45

get to what was going on in and

8:47

out of court as this was all happening

8:49

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the new children's book selling like

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hotcakes. I must say, think

11:02

like a voter at

11:04

David pakman.com/book.

11:07

Donald Trump, while he was sitting in

11:09

court yesterday, being told we are going

11:11

to reduce your bond from four hundred

11:13

and fifty million to one hundred and

11:16

seventy five million dollars and give you

11:18

an additional ten days while in court

11:21

posting to Truth

11:23

Social, that he is

11:25

sort of like Jesus Christ. I

11:29

know, I know it's all wild. Trump posting

11:31

and we'll put it up on the screen.

11:34

Received this morning. Beautiful. Thank you. And

11:36

it is a message from someone else

11:38

quoting. Who knows what? It's ironic that

11:41

Christ walked through his greatest persecution the

11:43

very week they are trying to steal

11:45

your property from you. But have you

11:47

seen this verse? Psalm 109 3 8

11:50

and K J. V. They

11:55

have also surrounded me with words of hatred

11:57

and fought against me without a cause. I

12:00

turn for my love, they are my

12:02

accusers, but I give myself to prayer.

12:04

Thus, they have rewarded me evil for

12:06

good and hatred for my love." I

12:08

can never syntactically parse this nonsense, but

12:10

the point here is someone said to

12:12

Trump, they are praying over him daily

12:14

and many people are. And

12:16

much like with Jesus Christ himself,

12:19

who they were persecuting while trying to

12:21

take his property, they are

12:24

persecuting Trump while trying to take

12:26

his property. He is like Jesus

12:29

and Trump absolutely likes it, going

12:31

on to attack the judge

12:34

relevant here saying, quote,

12:36

Judge Engaron has refused to obey

12:39

the decision of the appellate division

12:41

relative to the statute of limitations.

12:44

This is a confrontation between a judge

12:47

and those that rule above him, a very

12:49

bad situation in which to place New York state

12:51

on the rule of law. Engaron

12:54

has disrespected the appellate division and it's

12:56

very clear and precise ruling. He should

12:58

be made to do so and at

13:01

the same time release the gag order.

13:03

This is the fifth time in this

13:06

case that he has been overturned or

13:08

record his credibility and that

13:10

of Letitia James has been shattered. We

13:12

will abide by the decision of the

13:14

appellate division and post either a bond

13:16

equivalent securities or cash. This

13:18

also shows how ridiculous and

13:21

outrageous Engaron's original decision was

13:23

at four hundred and fifty million. Then he

13:25

engages caps lock and says, I did

13:27

nothing wrong and New York should never

13:29

be put in a position like this again. Businesses

13:32

are fleeing. Violent crime is

13:34

flourishing and it is very important that this

13:37

be resolved in its totality as soon as

13:39

possible. Thank you. And

13:42

then lastly, adding on once again, obsessed

13:44

with the property value of Mar-a-Lago, quote,

13:47

Engaron and Letitia James should be

13:49

forced to explain why he ruled

13:51

that Mar-a-Lago was worth eighteen million

13:54

when in fact it is worth fifty to one hundred

13:56

times that. How did the attorney general of

13:58

the state of New York this corrupt

14:00

judge to do that in order

14:02

to help her narrative and why.

14:04

And again, at the risk of

14:07

nauseating you and myself, the

14:09

judge is aware that

14:11

the assessment value of Mar-a-Lago for

14:13

property tax purposes is 18 million

14:15

dollars. The judge didn't rule Mar-a-Lago

14:18

is worth 18 million on the

14:20

open market. So this was all

14:22

while Trump was in court. Let's

14:25

now go to what happened

14:27

after court. Donald Trump snapped

14:29

and was visibly disoriented, saying

14:32

things that make no sense

14:34

grammatically or syntactically

14:37

in a really strange press conference that

14:39

he gave after leaving court

14:41

yesterday where the judge, the appellate

14:44

judge said he can pay 60

14:47

percent less in terms of the bond and

14:49

get 10 additional days. Trump was asked by

14:51

a reporter, now that the bond

14:53

has been reduced, are you

14:55

going to start putting money into your campaign,

14:57

which has been going to legal fees? And

15:00

Trump says it's none of your business. Take

15:03

a look at this. What's

15:05

on that in the big campaign? Has the bond been reduced? I

15:08

don't know if that's going to be 16. But

15:10

I might say that I have the option. But if I have

15:12

to spend 500 million on a bond, I wouldn't have that option.

15:14

I'd have to start selling things. I

15:28

don't have to sell

15:31

anything because I'm a phenomenal company.

15:33

Someday they'll actually report that. All

15:36

right. So then he goes into his normal stuff,

15:38

but he says to the reporter, that's none of

15:40

your business. And Trump then started starting

15:42

to glitch, which may or may not

15:45

shock you, arguing you can't

15:47

have an election in the middle of a

15:49

political season. You're just not allowed to do

15:51

it. What? Say again. Done

15:54

before in this country. You can't

15:56

have an election in the middle

15:58

of a political. We just

16:00

had Super Tuesday and we

16:02

had a Tuesday after Tuesday already and

16:05

we had Louisiana. You

16:08

can't have an election in

16:10

the middle of a political season. I'm

16:13

guessing what Trump meant to say is you

16:16

can't have a trial in

16:18

the middle of an election season, but we know

16:20

that it's always either we can't

16:22

do this now because I'm president. We

16:24

can't do this now because I'm running for reelection.

16:27

We can't do this now because I'm no longer

16:29

in office. We can't do this now

16:31

because I might run again. We can't do this now

16:33

because I'm running again. We can't do this now because

16:35

I'm the presumptive nominee. It's always

16:37

something. A reporter then asking

16:40

Trump, did you ever accept money

16:42

from a foreign government to pay the bond

16:44

or fines or legal bills? And Trump says

16:46

no, but it would be totally

16:48

fine if I did, if I want

16:50

to. Have you ever accepted money from a foreign government

16:53

to pay the bond or fines

16:55

or legal bills? No, I don't

16:57

do that. I think you'd be allowed to possibly. I don't

16:59

know. I mean, if you go

17:01

borrow from a big bank, many of the

17:03

banks are outside of this. As

17:06

you know, the biggest banks, frankly, are outside

17:08

of our country. So you could

17:10

do that, but I don't need to borrow money. I have a lot of

17:12

money. I have a lot of ... I built a great company, but

17:15

I don't want to have a crooked judge named

17:17

N'Goran and a crooked, horrible ... The worst? I

17:22

would say without question, attorney general in

17:25

the country. Ever, ever. He's got the worst.

17:27

Everything is, everybody's just so unfair. Now, remember, Trump

17:29

says he's got all this money. He doesn't need

17:31

any money, but his own

17:33

lawyers filed something saying he doesn't have the

17:35

money. His own lawyers put

17:38

in writing and presented to

17:40

courts. Trump can't

17:42

come up with this amount of cash

17:44

unless he starts selling properties, probably at

17:47

major discounts to sell them quickly, and

17:49

then they would be unrecoverable if Trump

17:51

were to prevail on appeal. His lawyers

17:53

said he doesn't have the money. Another

17:56

misfire from Trump, he says they're

17:58

going to bring crime back. to

18:00

law and order. What? And

18:03

we'll bring back to law and

18:05

order. We're going to get

18:08

those words law and order back because our

18:10

cities are a disaster.

18:12

I guess what he meant to say, right?

18:15

I mean, we have to guess what on earth

18:18

is this guy talking about because we're going to

18:20

bring crime back to law and order. Doesn't make

18:22

sense. I guess he's saying he'll bring back law

18:24

and order and get rid

18:27

of the crime. I'm guessing here because

18:29

it's really hard to know what this guy's talking

18:31

about as he continues to decline.

18:33

By the way, crime is down overall.

18:35

Violent crime is down overall. Property crime

18:37

is down overall. Murder is down overall.

18:40

It's down. Hate crimes against

18:42

Jews are up significantly.

18:46

But I rarely hear Trump mention

18:48

that issue. Trump then again wrongly

18:51

asserts that when his house was

18:53

raided, it was illegal. In FBI,

18:55

they raided my house in

18:58

violation of a thing called the Fourth Amendment.

19:00

Not allowed to do that. They raided my

19:03

house in Florida, Mar-a-Lago. No

19:05

notice, no nothing. They raided it. I can't

19:07

believe it. Everything there is a

19:09

lie. No notice.

19:12

They were insisting for months. Give

19:15

us back the documents, Donnie Boy. We

19:17

need those documents. And rather

19:20

than comply, Trump hid the documents.

19:22

It's against the Fourth Amendment. No,

19:25

they had every right. They

19:27

crossed every T and

19:30

dotted every I in order

19:32

to get what they needed in place.

19:34

We know that they waited again to

19:36

your justice system. The FBI waited months

19:39

of benefit. They would not give people

19:42

who were not in Trump's position of

19:44

power. And of course, they

19:46

had a search warrant. They had absolutely everything

19:48

they needed. And then lastly, here, here

19:51

is Trump asked, do you plan

19:53

to testify in any

19:56

of these forthcoming trials? And Trump says, I don't

19:58

know that there will be any trial. trials.

20:01

I don't know that you're

20:03

going to have the trial.

20:09

I don't know how you can have a trial

20:12

like this in the middle of an election, a

20:14

presidential election. And this

20:16

is again, this is a Biden trial. These

20:18

are all Biden trials because Colangelo works for

20:20

Biden. Remember that there's no

20:22

evidence linking Joe Biden to any of this.

20:25

Can you imagine they take a guy out

20:27

of DOJ and they put him into the

20:29

attorney general's office and then into the Manhattan

20:31

DA's office to go after

20:34

Trump? These are all Biden trials. So

20:36

I don't know that you're going to have it. I think we're

20:38

going to get some court rules. All

20:40

right. So the question, of course, was, do you plan to

20:42

testify in any of these trials? And Trump says, I don't

20:44

believe that there are going. What is he trying to get

20:46

out here? You might have had to do that in 2016,

20:48

but we're right. Now,

20:51

we know what happens after

20:55

four years of a

20:57

president of the United States spewing

20:59

this kind of hatred, whether

21:02

it's over the line or just behind the line, whatever

21:04

you want to describe it, we know what the impact

21:06

of it is. And that is

21:08

literally cities burning,

21:11

rioting in the streets, vigilante

21:14

shooting protesters and

21:17

culminating with a literal insurrection

21:19

on the U.S. Capitol, because

21:21

the guy at the top

21:23

set a tone that turned

21:25

Americans against each other. So

21:27

once you look at things in that

21:29

framework, it doesn't matter what he meant,

21:32

because what he did leads

21:35

to that horrible end. And

21:37

I think if you put the entire campaign

21:39

through that kind of framework, you can pull

21:41

almost anything he does into

21:44

that framework. And again, it's not a question of

21:46

the journalists trying to deliberately echo

21:48

what I'm seeing here. But

21:50

if one team is putting things

21:53

in that frame, invariably that bleeds

21:55

into mainstream media coverage just as much

21:57

the way Trump's saying things were awesome on

21:59

my watch. 2020,

22:02

2019, that bleeds into mainstream coverage too. That's

22:04

what campaigns do. So that

22:06

is my strategic advice to the Biden campaign

22:08

to others who want to see Trump lose.

22:11

But in a sense, it is an argument

22:13

about context, right? Which is the words don't

22:15

matter so much as the fact that the

22:17

context for four years has been what you

22:19

laid out. It's a differently worded argument about

22:22

context unless I'm misunderstanding. Right. I

22:24

mean, a frame, a narrative frame

22:26

creates a context. Yes. And, and

22:29

what I'm arguing is you want to create

22:31

that frame in a way that

22:34

makes it much harder. I mean, there's always going

22:36

to be a rejoinder, you know, Republicans aren't going

22:38

to accept your frame. They're going to push back

22:40

in some way. But

22:44

let me take another example, where

22:46

Trump said that if you if you're Jewish,

22:49

you vote Democrats, then you hate

22:51

Israel and you and you hate your own religion. Right. The

22:54

response from a lot of Democrats was you're being

22:56

anti Semitic. The response from

22:58

Republicans was well, I wanted to use

23:00

those words, but he was basically right.

23:02

I mean, Democrats do hate Israel these

23:04

days. You're debating

23:07

the meaning of anti Semitism. Whereas

23:09

if you were in my frame, yep, Trump

23:12

always pits Americans against each other.

23:14

And that leads to our cities

23:16

on fire. That

23:19

is what happened four years ago. Whether

23:21

the meaning of anti-Semitism is not relevant

23:23

to that framing. So the pushback

23:25

to what I'm saying to Republican is, hey, don't

23:28

blame Trump for that. That's

23:30

the right that was Black Lives Matter. And, you

23:32

know, he didn't tell the insurrectionist to storm the

23:35

Capitol. Well, OK, you can say

23:37

that, but I'm looking around right now. I don't see

23:39

my cities on fire. I've been a different president for

23:41

the last four years. And

23:43

things aren't like the way they were four years ago.

23:45

You can try to claim it's not his fault, but

23:48

this didn't happen under other presidents. It only happened

23:50

under him. So you connect the dots. I

23:54

was a few weeks ago invited to

23:56

the White House for a pre-state of the

23:58

union thing and had about

24:00

an hour and 15 minute meeting with

24:02

the vice president. And one

24:04

of the really interesting things was it was

24:07

off the record. So I need to be

24:09

respectful about maintaining that. But

24:11

the atmosphere behind

24:13

the scenes was one where

24:16

I felt like not only

24:18

are they paying attention

24:21

to what's happening in corporate media with

24:23

regard to coverage of this race, but

24:26

they have all of the right things to

24:29

respond with. And I was

24:31

left wondering, why aren't we hearing some

24:33

of these responses from the Biden administration

24:35

publicly? Now, obviously, behind closed doors, sometimes

24:37

elected officials are willing to say or

24:39

maybe say things with certain language that

24:41

they have calculated is not to their

24:43

advantage to use publicly or whatever the

24:45

case may be. But there is the

24:47

impression that despite everything you write about

24:50

and talk about, and I write about

24:52

and talk about, that the

24:54

Biden administration is not communicating

24:56

well the state of

24:58

the economy, the contrast you're talking about

25:00

when cities were burning and now they're

25:02

not, et cetera. Why

25:04

do you well, first of all, do

25:06

you agree that there is some kind

25:09

of public facing issue

25:11

with how this administration is communicating the

25:13

state of the country now versus four

25:15

years ago, the state of the economy,

25:17

et cetera? And do you

25:19

think that it is because they haven't figured

25:22

it out or because they think it's to

25:24

their advantage to communicate in the way that

25:26

they're communicating? Well, look,

25:28

it's obviously it's always easier to

25:30

be the pundit sitting

25:32

at home behind his laptop and sketch

25:34

out a little piece of strategy easier for

25:36

me to do that than actually be president

25:39

and run a presidential campaign at the

25:41

same time when you actually have to

25:44

govern the country and deal with international

25:46

crises and sift

25:49

through. I mean, you know, Donald Trump's a target rich

25:52

environment, which is a blessing and a curse. There's like

25:54

a thousand things you could say, but you

25:56

can't do them all. Right. So it

25:59

may be, you know, an off the record

26:01

meeting, you might put forth a thing. And

26:03

the vice president says a thing in response,

26:05

oh, that one, that one made sense. I like

26:07

that one. But how does it work in, in

26:10

a constellation of activity, in

26:13

a way that cuts through

26:15

all the clutter. And so

26:18

the average person who doesn't follow the news every single day

26:20

is really going to feel it when there are a lot

26:22

of things that go on to give a new cycle that

26:24

are totally out of your control and made up each your

26:26

advantage. Right. Oh, I don't

26:28

like playing the role of I'm I know everything of

26:30

these numbness in the West and North are doing, you

26:32

know, well, let me put it a different way. I

26:35

look at the economy by saying

26:37

here's the six to eight economic

26:39

indicators that I think are the

26:42

most important. They all look pretty

26:44

good. Unemployment looks pretty good. GDP growth

26:46

looks pretty good. Inflation is down stock stock

26:48

market performance is good, right? I look at

26:50

all these things and I go by any

26:52

objective measure, this looks pretty good.

26:54

And yet I get calls from people obviously on

26:57

the right, but even some on the left who

26:59

say the economy is really not

27:01

doing that well, it was good under

27:03

Trump, etc. Okay, so obviously, it doesn't

27:05

seem to be about just presenting data

27:08

and economic metrics. Certainly. Is there some

27:10

what what would be the right way

27:12

to communicate the state of the economy

27:14

in an electorally advantageous way? Well, I've

27:16

actually written about this. So

27:19

I looked at the Reagan

27:22

84 campaign as my model.

27:26

And you might know I'm talking with

27:29

the morning in America campaign. Yep.

27:32

And what I think is really, and

27:34

QM there are a lot of parallels here.

27:37

Old incumbent president running

27:40

under an improved economy, but not a

27:42

perfect economy, we might have romanticized that

27:44

well, the economy in 1984 was just

27:46

gangbusters. Interest rates in 1984 were

27:49

like more than double what they are

27:51

today. You know, things weren't perfect.

27:53

But inflation was down. Unemployment

27:55

was down, but still much higher than it was

27:58

today. So like a

28:00

lot of incumbents, you have

28:02

to deal with a mixed

28:04

record that might be better than the

28:06

way things were, but still have elements

28:08

of frustration to them and spin that away

28:10

that people focus on the half that

28:12

glass half full not the glass half empty.

28:17

And what Morning in America did

28:19

was it was not a

28:21

data heavy presentation.

28:24

It didn't drown you in statistics. There was

28:26

a little bit of it. But there

28:28

was a story there was a narrative. There

28:31

was a story

28:34

was that America

28:36

coming together going back

28:39

to work, you can be a young couple

28:41

and get married and be confident that you

28:43

can afford a new house and build your

28:45

your wonderful, you know, 2.2 kids

28:48

suburban American life, you know, and it was

28:50

a story that felt right

28:52

because things felt better than they did in

28:54

1980 when you had stag inflation

28:57

and the Iran hostage crisis was

28:59

going on. So yeah, I mean,

29:02

but keep in mind, like there was a really sharp

29:04

recession in 1982 that

29:07

people were coming out of but there were

29:09

still residual effects that unemployment was still elevated

29:11

and interest rates was elevated. So they had

29:13

to lean into the positive part

29:15

of it. And so

29:17

I think Biden's campaign is starting

29:19

to do this. I don't

29:22

think they're hitting the I don't

29:26

want yet see a narrative that is

29:28

as potent as why I think Reagan did. But

29:32

I think they're a little farther along in you

29:34

know, America's because there's elements to it. I will

29:36

say we're coming together, American doing anything with the

29:38

greatest country in the world, we're manufacturing is coming

29:40

back, we're building jobs for the future. Like there

29:43

is some of that. So I want to be

29:45

overly critical here. Right.

29:47

I would like to see a

29:49

clearer contrast between sort of Biden's

29:51

morning in America, how

29:53

we are coming together in buildings in America again,

29:57

and nightmare in America with four years old

29:59

Trump our cities are on fire. I

30:01

like to see that more clearly done

30:03

and not just in like one ad or two ads,

30:05

but as a consistent theme that you do every single

30:08

day. So as

30:10

we are entering April and

30:12

now we're seven months from this election,

30:15

the polling is kind of a mixed bag.

30:17

A lot of the polls, you know, Trump

30:19

plus Biden adds up to 85. So

30:22

there's this other 15 percent in there

30:24

that depending on who you talk to

30:26

means means different things. The

30:29

predictions that I'm hearing, confident

30:31

predictions about it's obvious what the outcome in

30:33

November is going to be, strike

30:36

me as so silly because it seems that

30:38

the most likely outcome is somewhere

30:40

between three and five hundred thousand

30:42

votes in five to seven states

30:44

decides this election. That seems to

30:46

be the most likely outcome and

30:48

it really could go either way as far as

30:51

I'm concerned. I think if we look historically incumbents

30:54

generally get reelected when

30:56

the economy is good, incumbents are more

30:58

likely to get reelected. If

31:01

we start with 2020 where Trump already

31:03

lost and you add 91 indictments, civil

31:07

liability for rape, all

31:09

these other things, it's hard to imagine, well, it's

31:12

going to go way better than 2020 for

31:14

Trump. But I don't really know. So I'm

31:16

curious as we are now just seven months

31:18

away. It's no longer, you know, Rachel Bittacoff

31:20

where when we were 15 months away said,

31:23

David, the polls mean absolutely nothing. Well,

31:25

we're talking April now. So how do you

31:27

see the polls? What do

31:29

you think of the confident predictions that are

31:31

being made? Give us a sense. Well, I

31:34

wouldn't make any confident predictions either way. You

31:36

know, seven months out, you know, things can

31:38

break late. But a lot of times in

31:40

presidential elections, the polling is pretty stable all

31:43

year long. But there are

31:45

other cases like say 2004, where Bush care was pretty

31:48

tight all

31:50

the way through, and then it really breaks in

31:52

Bush's direction after the conventions. And

31:56

we have other examples where,

31:58

you know, Reagan, before, and

32:01

Clinton 96, where again, the

32:04

polling, they were both ahead, at

32:07

this point, but there was a

32:09

lag going a little farther back into

32:12

the timeline, there was a lag between

32:14

them getting credit for economic

32:16

improvement and the metric showing

32:19

improvement. And

32:21

one more factor here, and you alluded

32:23

to this, we have

32:25

four cases of incumbents

32:27

losing in the last

32:30

100 years, Herbert

32:32

Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and

32:34

Donald Trump, in every one of

32:36

those cases, you had pretty severe economic distress,

32:40

cutting into election day, which we currently do

32:42

not have. So it would be highly,

32:45

highly unusual for

32:48

an incumbent to lose with the, I mean,

32:50

it's not a perfect economy, but on the

32:52

whole, this is pretty darn good historically speaking,

32:55

you can find things in nitpick about, but GDP

32:58

growing unemployment low, wages

33:00

meeting inflation, real disposable

33:02

income, growing, incumbents

33:05

get reelected in that environment. So

33:07

I am definitely more focused on

33:09

that right now than I know about the polling,

33:11

I think the polling can catch up to the

33:13

metrics. What we often look at

33:16

is GDP growth in the first two quarters of

33:18

an election year. So we haven't seen those numbers

33:20

yet. I did look at

33:23

the Federal Reserve of Atlanta to

33:25

the GDP now thing where they sort of

33:27

try to track it in real time. And

33:30

I didn't look at, they uploaded every week, so forgive me

33:32

if I like Google, I talked to you. When

33:35

I looked at it last week, it was a 2.3,

33:37

which is not like a gangbusters. No, but

33:40

it's fine. It's certainly not a sign of

33:42

a problem, I guess I would say. Yeah,

33:44

exactly. I mean, but it could change. I

33:46

mean, if we had a downturn between

33:48

now and June, would I be more worried? Sure, I would. So

33:51

now it's a 2.1 as of earlier this

33:53

week. Less thrilling, I guess I would say,

33:55

but still not a sign of

33:57

distress. And also, and you wouldn't say want to

33:59

be. too high because I'm like taking inflation

34:01

back into gear. You want things to be not

34:04

too hot, not too cold. So

34:06

if we were staying at this kind of

34:08

slow estate trajectory, I would feel very good

34:11

about Biden's chances. Now, of course, there is

34:13

this X factor. Well, a couple X factors. There's

34:15

his age. There's

34:17

the border, and there's Israel-Gaza. And

34:23

I can't think of it – immigration as

34:25

an issue runs hot cold all

34:29

the time. I've never seen a

34:31

case of immigration really determined an election, so

34:33

I'm skeptical of that being the issue. Not

34:35

that Biden has to do nothing on the

34:37

subject, but I'd be surprised if that was

34:40

the thing that ended his campaign. And

34:43

Israel-Gaza also – you can't

34:45

find an example of an

34:47

international crisis that did not involve American

34:50

troops dying that determined

34:52

an election. Now, if you don't mind me

34:54

talking on going on and on and on,

34:57

there is one caveat to look at, which

35:00

is 1948. Harry

35:03

Truman, his famous comeback victory against

35:05

Thomas Dewey, this is also the

35:08

year where he recognized Israel. That's

35:11

in May of 1948. And

35:16

it was not a slam dunk decision.

35:18

His own secretary of state told Truman,

35:20

don't do that. The

35:22

only reason to do it is

35:25

political, because you want to get Jewish votes in

35:27

New York. And

35:29

New York was the biggest electoral college

35:31

prize. So it's not in our national

35:33

interest to do this. I think another

35:35

– I think Secretary of Defense said,

35:37

look, 40 million Arabs are going to push

35:40

400,000 Jews into the sea. That's

35:42

just the reality. Our interest here

35:44

is oil. So do what makes

35:46

sense to extract oil from this

35:48

region, not help Jews. And

35:51

Truman ignores all that and

35:54

recognized Israel. But

35:57

there was an arms embargo in place.

36:00

in the region. I mean, at

36:02

this point, the British are leaning

36:04

towards the Arabs, not the Israelis.

36:07

And the British tell the Truman

36:09

administration, if you guys lift this arms embargo

36:12

and try to arm the Israelis, we're going

36:14

to arm the Arabs. And

36:17

then the Secretary of State George Marshall is

36:19

like, okay, Truman, like, okay, we didn't agree

36:21

on the recognition of Israel, but for Abbot's

36:23

sake, don't get a proxy war with our

36:26

closest allies. So Truman does not lift

36:28

the arms embargo. Yep, the third

36:30

party candidate, Henry Wallace, who was

36:32

FDR's VP, he became Truman's Commerce

36:35

Secretary, which because he

36:37

disagrees with Truman's approach to the Soviet

36:39

Union, Wallace was

36:41

was leaned towards the Soviet Union,

36:43

he was, he was, you know, socialistic, a lot of

36:45

people call him a communist. A

36:48

lot of the Jews in New York were

36:50

socialists. Wallace campaigns

36:52

in New York, October 1948, saying

36:54

there's blood on Truman's hands,

36:59

because he's not lifting the arms embargo and

37:02

arming the Israelis, because they're in a war

37:04

with the Arab coaches at this point, he's

37:06

in Madison Square Garden, telling New York Jews,

37:08

Truman has blood on his hands, he is

37:10

not a true steadfast supporter of Israel. Wallace

37:14

gets 8% of

37:16

the New York vote and Thomas Dewey

37:18

wins New York by one point. So

37:22

you could argue, right, that this issue actually

37:24

flipped the state away from the president. However,

37:26

it's so happened that Trump and Truman won

37:28

a bunch of other states that

37:30

offset the loss of New York. So right,

37:32

there's that one character that maybe, maybe, maybe

37:34

if all these sort of stars align that

37:36

a Middle East crisis can flip the state

37:38

and people looking at Michigan, the Arab community

37:40

is there to think that might happen here.

37:43

But it is so rare. So it's

37:46

not said to be ignorant of, but

37:48

I would still be very surprised that again, we

37:50

can't even know what Israel Gaza

37:53

is gonna look like in November, how high

37:55

it's gonna be on people's priority list. So

37:57

it's going to be cognizant of, but I

37:59

do think it's It would be highly unusual for

38:01

that to be a determining factor. And if it is

38:03

a determining factor, probably there's a lot of other things

38:05

going on that are bogging by now anyway. But

38:09

those are the X factors you have to worry about. But

38:11

on the whole, I say economics are the biggest driver of

38:13

these things. Those all point in the right direction. Yeah. And

38:16

that's all. If you look at opinion polls, economics

38:18

is ranking far higher than foreign policy or

38:21

Israel-Gaza as well, which I don't think comes

38:23

as a shock to anybody, sometimes not even

38:25

really showing up. Vaguely foreign

38:27

policy is sometimes eighth, and

38:29

some portion of that presumably is Israel-Gaza. So

38:32

that seems to be mirroring what you're saying.

38:34

Yeah. I mean, well, look, it's not going to

38:36

be the case that Israel is the number one

38:38

issue. No, no, no. The question is, might it

38:41

be somebody's number one issue? Such

38:43

that it could flip one state. Right,

38:45

exactly. And if Michigan

38:47

is like on a knife's edge,

38:50

then maybe Dearborn can flip the

38:52

state. But if by

38:54

November the economy is doing well enough for us, like,

38:57

you know what, Biden's really I don't need to change

38:59

forces here. You know, things are going all right. And

39:01

Biden's up by four or five points in Michigan that

39:03

I don't think Israel-Gaza is going to be the determining

39:05

factor. All right.

39:08

Bill Share is the politics editor for

39:10

the Washington Monthly and also co-hosts the

39:12

online show The DMZ with Matt Lewis.

39:15

Bill, always a pleasure. Thank

39:17

you. Thank you. Take

39:19

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link is in the podcast notes. Soldiers

40:46

and troops at the polls

40:49

on election day. That is

40:51

what Donald Trump's current press

40:53

secretary for his campaign, Caroline

40:55

Levitt is promising. What

40:57

is she alluding to? Certainly

40:59

it can't be actual members of the

41:02

military patrolling polling places. So what is

41:04

it? It's arguably something even scarier. This

41:06

is something that we need to take

41:08

very seriously. The attempts at voter

41:10

intimidation, what they have up their sleeves should not

41:13

be ignored. We saw what they tried to do

41:15

in 2020. We know the sorts of

41:17

things they're going to try to do again in 2024. Here

41:20

is Caroline Levitt. Again, this is Trump's current

41:22

press secretary for the campaign. Not

41:25

to be confused with Trump's former White House

41:27

secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, who's now on Fox News.

41:30

Levitt was interviewed by Donald Trump

41:32

Jr.'s wife or fiancee. I don't

41:35

know. Kimberly

41:37

Guilfoyle. And she says

41:40

we are going to be in order to fight

41:42

fraud, irregularities,

41:44

cheating, all non-existent

41:46

things. They are

41:49

going to have soldiers and

41:51

troops at the polling places

41:54

on November 5th. I hope

41:56

law enforcement's listening because we got to be all

41:58

over this. Listen to this. for the

42:00

America First movement, you know, on the ground,

42:02

what you guys are seeing for your ground

42:05

game, how strong and unified of a place,

42:07

you know, the campaign will be going into

42:09

with the convention this summer. Well,

42:12

we're so excited about our recent merger

42:14

with the Republican National Committee and the

42:16

new leadership we have there and both

42:19

Laura Trump and Michael Watley. Our team

42:21

is already working hand in hand with

42:23

the staff at the RNC. So

42:25

by the way, this this also isn't it

42:27

before we even get to soldiers and troops.

42:30

Remember that there has been a Trump

42:32

takeover of the Republican National Committee. Trump's

42:35

own daughter-in-law now is a

42:37

member, a staffer at the

42:39

Republican National Committee. They

42:42

have pledged total undying loyalty

42:44

to President scrumps and

42:46

money is going to go to him, legal

42:49

fees, et cetera. And the failed former president

42:51

is going to benefit greatly from taking over

42:53

the RNC. But let's continue to the soldiers

42:55

and the troops at polling places. As

42:58

one very lean and mean machine, as

43:00

we like to call it, with one

43:02

goal. And that goal is victory for

43:04

Republicans up and down the ballot on

43:06

November the 5th. We have the team

43:08

now it's time to deploy the troops

43:10

on the ground. We have an amazing

43:12

volunteer led effort right now in all

43:14

of the battleground states in addition to

43:17

our great paid staff who will be

43:19

making direct voter contact every single hour

43:21

of every day between now and November

43:23

the 5th to get out the vote.

43:25

A large part of this is also

43:27

educating voters on these laws within their

43:30

state. If you live in an early

43:32

voting state, we encourage you to get

43:34

out and vote early. By the

43:36

way, remember early voting, voting

43:38

by mail, anything other than one

43:41

day go in one day,

43:43

go in anything short of that. On

43:46

the one hand, we were told in 2020 and

43:48

Trump is still saying to this day that

43:50

that's all fraudulent. That's how the Democrats

43:52

cheat. But officially,

43:55

Republicans realize if we only

43:58

allow the left. to

44:00

actually take advantage of all of these more

44:02

convenient ways to vote will probably lose. So

44:05

even though it's all fraud when the left does it, they

44:07

also are telling their voters you should go out

44:09

and vote early vote whenever you can. OK, now

44:12

we're getting to the soldiers. You cast your

44:14

ballot. You don't know what can

44:16

happen to you on election day.

44:18

And then we're also investing a

44:20

lot of money into voter integrity

44:22

efforts to ensure that every American

44:24

knows their best. Now you will

44:26

be and counted and matter.

44:29

And we're going to play offense this time around. We're not

44:31

going to play defense like we unfortunately did in 2020.

44:34

We're going to have soldiers, poll watchers on

44:36

the ground who are making sure that there

44:39

are no irregularities in fraud like we saw

44:41

in the last election. I love it. I

44:44

cannot wait. It's going to be fantastic. So,

44:46

of course, I will remind you that the

44:48

irregularities in fraud that Caroline Levitt asserts as

44:50

a point of fact in 2020 did not

44:53

exist. We

44:55

did all sorts of interviews about this, including

44:58

with Ken Block, who was hired by Trump

45:00

to investigate it. He couldn't find it. Courts

45:02

couldn't find it. Nobody could find it. So

45:05

that didn't happen. I like this

45:07

this notion of this time

45:09

we're playing offense. Last

45:11

time we played defense. No, last time

45:13

you played offense, you tried to steal

45:16

an election you lost with frivolous court

45:18

cases, strong arming elected officials in a

45:20

variety of states and attempting to assemble

45:23

fake slates of electors to go and

45:25

say, oh, Trump won our state when

45:27

actually it was Biden who won it.

45:29

Now, as far as soldiers, I

45:32

can't imagine that these would

45:34

be literal soldiers because I just

45:37

can't think of any way that actual members

45:39

of the military in their capacity as members

45:42

of the military are going to be

45:44

deployed to polling places by Trump because Trump isn't

45:46

even going to be president in November. But

45:49

they are being very clear. They

45:51

plan a campaign of intimidation. They

45:53

are planning it. We saw the videos

45:55

purportedly of armed members of

45:58

the military when Vladimir Putin. was

46:00

incredibly overwhelmingly reelected recently in Russia with

46:02

80 something percent of the vote. What

46:05

a victory for him, right? They would love

46:07

to do that. They may not be

46:09

able to get away with it. So instead they will

46:11

have whatever they can. You've got to be how many

46:14

feet away from a polling place? Well, we

46:16

will be one foot beyond that intimidating

46:18

voters. We are going to do everything

46:20

we can. They are telling us. So

46:22

whether it's literal soldiers is less relevant than

46:25

the fact that they plan to have a

46:27

presence. The presence is to intimidate. And we

46:29

have to hope. And you know what? Last

46:31

time a relatively good

46:34

job was done as far as this particular

46:36

piece was concerned. We have to

46:38

make sure that every state is prepared and that

46:40

they aren't going to allow these intimidation tactics. They

46:42

plan to use them. Let's hope that they're not

46:44

allowed. It is happening. Donald

46:47

Trump's first felony trial is

46:50

about to start unless something changes. This

46:53

insider reports Trump's first felony

46:55

trial will be April 15th.

46:58

Trump was in court when he learned that his

47:00

hush money trial would be April 15th. Now remember

47:03

the hush money trial in New York. This

47:06

is the least serious

47:09

to use a term that may not be the

47:11

right term. This is the least serious of

47:13

the four criminal trials that he is facing. But

47:15

it's still a criminal trial. The

47:17

date was set during a pretrial hearing. The

47:20

trial on 34 felony counts of

47:22

falsifying business records is expected to last six

47:24

weeks. So understand that

47:26

this first trial is

47:29

going to get us roughly from April 15th to

47:31

June 1st. It's going to

47:33

be June before trial number one is over. And

47:36

then we will see when is

47:38

the next trial forthcoming. Trump

47:41

raged against the judge's decision not

47:43

to delay the trial, saying

47:45

that it's election interference because he's

47:47

running for president. Trump

47:49

said he would appeal to try

47:51

to push back the trial date. There

47:54

is disagreement as to whether this

47:56

is even something that Donald Trump

47:58

can appeal can appeal. And

48:01

the date has finally been set. Trump and

48:03

his legal team must appear in court each

48:05

day of the six week trial of

48:08

34 felony counts. A

48:10

jury is going to be asked

48:12

to determine did Trump falsify 34

48:14

invoices and a Trump

48:16

organization ledger in order to

48:19

hide the hundred and thirty thousand dollar hush

48:21

money payment to porn actress

48:23

Stormy Daniels. This was

48:25

all recorded as legal fees paid to

48:27

Michael Cohen. But of

48:30

course, this was an attempt to hide the

48:32

real point of those funds. Jury

48:34

selection is going to be just

48:38

before the start of Passover. And

48:41

it's going to be a wild week. It's going

48:43

to be a wild week. This will not be

48:45

televised. This will not be televised as

48:47

far as I have been able to glean as

48:49

of this moment. So Trump is going to try

48:51

to push this back, but it is beginning. It

48:53

is election season and it is trial season and

48:56

we will be covering all of it. And who

48:58

the hell knows who the hell knows what we

49:00

are going to expect from this. Trump

49:02

wants to hail Mary. Trump is still hoping for some

49:05

way to delay the trial. And because

49:07

he seems to continue getting these last minute

49:09

reprieves, I am not ready to

49:11

say I'm confident the trial starts on April 15th,

49:13

but it's been set. The judge, Judge Murchand, is

49:15

saying it's going to happen. We will,

49:17

of course, follow it and let you know. I

49:20

have a voicemail number that you can call any

49:22

time you want. If you have something you'd like

49:24

to communicate to me. There's a

49:26

guy who apparently I blocked on Instagram. I

49:28

don't I blocked so many people. I don't

49:30

know who this guy is. He

49:33

is calling multiple times a day

49:35

to complain about the fact

49:37

that I apparently blocked him on Instagram.

49:40

This is an individual suffering with very,

49:43

very serious magga brain worms. Listen to

49:45

this and listen to how triggering it

49:47

is simply to be blocked

49:50

on Instagram. Now it may be just

49:52

like a technical error. One caveat to

49:54

look at, which is 1948, Harry

49:56

Truman. his

50:00

famous comeback victory against Thomas Dewey.

50:02

This is also the year where

50:04

he recognized Israel. That's

50:07

in May of 1948. It

50:12

was not a slam dunk decision. His

50:14

own Secretary of State told Truman, don't

50:17

do that. The only reason

50:19

to do it is political because

50:21

you want to get Jewish votes in New York.

50:24

New York was the biggest electoral college

50:26

prize. It's not our national

50:28

interest to do this. I

50:31

think Secretary of Defense said,

50:33

look, 40 million Arabs are going to push 400,000

50:35

Jews into the sea. That's

50:38

just the reality. Our interest here

50:40

is oil. So do what

50:42

makes sense to extract oil from this region,

50:44

not help Jews. Truman

50:47

ignores all that and

50:50

recognized Israel. But

50:53

there was an arms embargo in place

50:55

in the region. I

50:58

mean, at this point, the British are

51:00

leaning towards the Arabs, not the Israelis.

51:03

And the British tell the Truman

51:05

administration, if you guys lift this arms embargo

51:07

and try to arm the Israelis, we're going

51:10

to arm the Arabs. And

51:13

then the Secretary of State, George Marshall,

51:15

is like, okay, we didn't agree on

51:17

the recognition of Israel, but for heaven's

51:19

sake, don't get a proxy war with

51:21

our closest allies. So Truman does

51:23

not lift the arms embargo. Yep.

51:25

The third-party candidate, Henry Wallace, who

51:28

was FDR's VP, he

51:30

became Truman's commerce secretary, which,

51:32

because he disagrees with Truman's approach to

51:34

the Soviet Union, Wallace

51:37

was leaning towards the

51:39

Soviet Union. He was, you know, socialistic, a

51:41

little bit of a communist. A

51:44

lot of the Jews in New York were socialists. Wallace

51:47

campaigns in New York, October

51:50

1948, saying

51:52

there's blood on Truman's hands,

51:55

because he's not lifting the arms

51:58

embargo and arming the Israelis. they're

52:00

in a war with the Arab countries at this

52:02

point. He's in Madison Square Garden telling New York

52:04

Jews Truman has blood on his hands. He is

52:07

not a true steadfast supporter of Israel. Wallace

52:10

gets 8% of

52:12

the New York vote, and Thomas Dewey

52:14

wins New York by one point. So

52:17

you could argue that this issue

52:20

actually flipped the state away from the president.

52:22

However, it so happened that Truman won a

52:24

bunch of other states that offset

52:26

the loss of New York. So there's that

52:28

one character that maybe, maybe, maybe if all

52:30

these sort of stars align that a Middle

52:32

East crisis can flip the state and people

52:34

looking at Michigan and the Arab communities there

52:36

to think that might happen here. But

52:40

it is so rare. So

52:42

it's not said to be ignorant of, but

52:44

I would still be very surprised that again we can't

52:47

even know what Israel Gaza is

52:49

going to look like in November, how high it's

52:51

going to be on people's priority list. So it's

52:53

going to be cognizant of, but I do think

52:55

it would be highly unusual for that to be

52:57

a determining factor. And if it is a determining

52:59

factor, probably there's a lot of other things going

53:01

on that are bogging by now anyway. But

53:04

those are the X factors you have to worry about.

53:06

But on the whole, I say economics are the biggest

53:09

driver of these things. Those all point in the right

53:11

direction. Yeah. And that's all, if you look at opinion

53:13

polls, economics is ranking far

53:15

higher than foreign policy or Israel Gaza as

53:17

well, which I don't think comes as a

53:19

shock to anybody. Sometimes not even really showing

53:22

up. Vaguely foreign policy is

53:24

sometimes eighth and some portion

53:26

of that presumably is Israel Gaza. So that

53:28

seems to be mirroring what you're saying. Yeah.

53:31

I mean, well, okay. It's not going to be the

53:33

case that Israel is the number one issue. No, no,

53:35

no. The question might not be somebody's

53:37

number one issue. It

53:39

could flip one state. Right. Exactly.

53:41

And if Michigan is like

53:43

on a nice edge, yep,

53:46

then maybe Dearborn can flip the state.

53:49

But if by November, the economy is doing well enough

53:51

where it's like, you know what, you know, Biden's really,

53:53

I don't need to change forces here. You know, things

53:55

are going all right. And Biden's up by, you know,

53:57

four or five points in Michigan. Israel,

54:00

God is going to be the determining factor. All

54:03

right. Bill Cher is the politics editor

54:05

for the Washington Monthly and also co-hosts

54:08

the online show, The DMZ with Matt

54:10

Lewis. Bill, always a pleasure. Thank you.

54:13

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The link is in the podcast notes. Soldiers

55:42

and troops at the polls

55:44

on election day. That is

55:47

what Donald Trump's current press

55:49

secretary for his campaign, Caroline

55:51

Levitt, is promising. What

55:53

is she alluding to? Certainly

55:55

it can't be actual members of the

55:57

military patrolling polling places. So why not?

56:00

What is it? It's arguably something even scarier.

56:02

This is something that we need to take

56:04

very seriously. The attempts at voter intimidation, what

56:06

they have up their sleeves should not be

56:08

ignored. We saw what they tried to do

56:11

in 2020. We know the sorts of

56:13

things they're going to try to do again in 2024. Here

56:16

is Caroline Levitt. Again, this is Trump's current

56:18

press secretary for the campaign. Not

56:20

to be confused with Trump's former White House

56:23

secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, who's now on Fox News.

56:26

Levitt was interviewed by Donald Trump

56:28

Jr.'s wife or fiancee, I don't

56:31

know, Kimberly

56:33

Guilfoyle. And she says

56:36

we are going to be, in order to fight

56:38

fraud, irregularities,

56:40

cheating, all non-existent

56:42

things, they are

56:45

going to have soldiers and

56:47

troops at the polling places

56:50

on November 5th. I hope

56:52

law enforcement's listening because we got to be all

56:54

over this. Listen to this. This is the anthem for

56:56

the America First movement. On the

56:58

ground, what you guys are seeing for

57:00

your ground game, how strong and unified

57:02

of a place the campaign will be

57:04

going into with the convention this summer.

57:08

Well, we're so excited about our recent

57:10

merger with the Republican National Committee and

57:12

the new leadership we have there, and

57:14

both Lara Trump and Michael Watley. Our

57:16

team is already working hand in hand

57:18

with the staff at the RNC. By

57:21

the way, this this also isn't it before

57:23

we even get to soldiers and troops. Remember

57:26

that there has been a Trump takeover

57:29

of the Republican National Committee. Trump's

57:31

own daughter-in-law now is a

57:34

member, a staffer at the

57:36

Republican National Committee. They have

57:38

pledged total undying loyalty to

57:40

President Scrumps and money

57:43

is going to go to him, legal fees,

57:45

et cetera. And the failed former president is

57:47

going to benefit greatly from taking over the

57:49

RNC. But let's continue to the soldiers and

57:52

the troops at polling places as one

57:54

very lean and mean machine, as we

57:56

like to call it, with one goal.

57:58

And that goal is victory. for Republicans

58:00

up and down the ballot on November

58:03

the 5th. We have the team, now

58:05

it's time to deploy the troops on

58:07

the ground. We have an amazing volunteer

58:09

led effort right now in all of

58:11

the battleground states, in addition to our

58:13

great paid staff who will be making

58:15

direct voter contact every single hour of

58:18

every day between now and November the

58:20

5th to get out the vote. A

58:22

large part of this is also educating

58:24

voters on the laws within their state.

58:26

If you live in an early voting

58:28

state, we encourage you to get out

58:30

and vote early. By the way, remember,

58:33

early voting, voting by mail, anything

58:36

other than one day, go in, one day, go

58:38

in, anything

58:40

short of that, on the

58:42

one hand, we were told in 2020 and Trump

58:44

is still saying to this day that

58:46

that's all fraudulent, that's how the Democrats

58:48

cheat. But officially

58:51

Republicans realize if we only allow

58:53

the left to actually take advantage

58:56

of all of these more convenient

58:58

ways to vote, we'll probably lose.

59:00

So even though it's all fraud when the left does it,

59:03

they also are telling their voters, you should go

59:05

out and vote early, vote whenever you can. Okay,

59:07

now we're getting to the soldiers. Cast your

59:10

ballot, you don't know what can happen

59:12

to you on election day. And then

59:14

we're also investing a lot

59:16

of money into voter integrity efforts to

59:18

ensure that every American knows their ballot

59:20

will be cast and counted and matter.

59:23

And we're gonna play offense this time

59:25

around. We're not gonna play defense like

59:27

we unfortunately did in 2020. We're

59:30

gonna have soldiers, poll watchers on

59:32

the ground who are making sure that there

59:35

are no irregularities in fraud like we saw

59:37

in the last election cycle. I love it,

59:39

I cannot wait, it's gonna be fantastic. So

59:41

of course, I will remind you that

59:43

the irregularities in fraud that Caroline Levitt

59:45

asserts as a point of fact in

59:48

2020 did not exist. We

59:51

did all sorts of interviews about this, including

59:54

with Ken Block, who was hired by Trump

59:56

to investigate it. He couldn't find it, courts

59:58

couldn't find it. Nobody could. find it.

1:00:00

So that didn't happen. I

1:00:02

like this this notion of this

1:00:05

time we're playing offense. Last

1:00:07

time we played defense. No, last

1:00:09

time you played offense, you tried to

1:00:11

steal an election you lost with frivolous

1:00:14

court cases, strong arming elected officials in

1:00:16

a variety of states and attempting to

1:00:18

assemble fake slates of electors to go

1:00:20

and say, oh, Trump won our state

1:00:22

when actually it was Biden who won

1:00:25

it. Now, as far as soldiers, I

1:00:28

can't imagine that these would

1:00:30

be literal soldiers because I just

1:00:33

can't think of any way that actual members

1:00:35

of the military in their capacity as members

1:00:37

of the military are going to be deployed

1:00:40

to polling places by Trump because Trump isn't

1:00:42

even going to be president in November. But

1:00:44

they are being very clear. They

1:00:47

plan a campaign of intimidation. They

1:00:49

are planning it. We saw the videos

1:00:51

purportedly of armed members of

1:00:53

the military when Vladimir Putin was incredibly

1:00:56

overwhelmingly reelected recently in Russia with 80

1:00:58

something percent of the vote. What a

1:01:00

victory for him, right? They

1:01:03

would love to do that. They

1:01:05

may not be able to get away with it. So instead,

1:01:07

they will have whatever they can. You've got to be how

1:01:09

many feet away from a polling place. Well,

1:01:11

we will be one foot beyond that

1:01:13

intimidating voters. We are going to do

1:01:16

everything we can. They are telling us.

1:01:18

So whether it's literal soldiers is less

1:01:20

relevant than the fact that they plan

1:01:22

to have a presence. The presence is

1:01:24

to intimidate. And we have to hope.

1:01:26

And you know what? Last time a relatively

1:01:29

good job was was done as far as this

1:01:31

particular piece was concerned. We have

1:01:33

to make sure that every state is prepared and

1:01:36

that they aren't going to allow these intimidation tactics.

1:01:38

They plan to use them. Let's hope that they're

1:01:40

not allowed. It is happening. Donald

1:01:43

Trump's first felony trial is

1:01:46

about to start unless something

1:01:48

changes. Business Insider reports Trump's

1:01:50

first felony trial will

1:01:52

be April 15th. Trump was in

1:01:55

court when he learned that his Hashmani trial would be

1:01:57

April 15th. Now remember the Hashmani trial. trial

1:02:00

in New York, this is the

1:02:02

least serious,

1:02:05

to use a term that may not be the

1:02:07

right term, this is the least serious of the

1:02:09

four criminal trials that he is facing. But it's

1:02:11

still a criminal trial. The date

1:02:13

was set during a pre-trial hearing. The

1:02:16

trial on 34 felony counts of falsifying

1:02:18

business records is expected to last six

1:02:20

weeks. So understand that this

1:02:22

first trial is

1:02:25

going to get us roughly from April 15th

1:02:27

to June 1st. It's going to

1:02:29

be June before trial number one is over. And

1:02:31

then we will see when is

1:02:34

the next trial forthcoming. Trump

1:02:36

raged against the judge's decision not

1:02:38

to delay the trial, saying

1:02:41

that it's election interference because he's

1:02:43

running for president. Trump said

1:02:45

he would appeal to try to

1:02:47

push back the trial date. There

1:02:49

is disagreement as to whether this

1:02:52

is even something that Donald Trump

1:02:54

can appeal, can appeal. And

1:02:57

the date has finally been set.

1:02:59

Trump and his legal team must

1:03:01

appear in court each day of

1:03:03

the six week trial of 34

1:03:05

felony counts. A jury is going

1:03:07

to be asked to determine did

1:03:09

Trump falsify 34 invoices and

1:03:12

a Trump organization ledger in

1:03:14

order to hide the hundred and thirty thousand

1:03:16

dollar hush money payment to porn

1:03:19

actress Stormy Daniels. This

1:03:21

was all recorded as legal fees paid

1:03:23

to Michael Cohen. But

1:03:25

of course, this was an attempt to hide

1:03:27

the real point of those funds. Jury

1:03:30

selection is going to be just

1:03:33

before the start of Passover. And

1:03:36

it's going to be a wild week. It's going

1:03:39

to be a wild week. This will not be

1:03:41

televised. This will not be televised as

1:03:43

far as I have been able to glean as

1:03:45

of this moment. So Trump is going to try

1:03:47

to push this back, but it is beginning. It

1:03:49

is election season and it is trial season and

1:03:52

we will be covering all of it. And who

1:03:54

the hell knows who the hell knows what we

1:03:56

are going to expect from this? Trump

1:03:58

wants to hail Mary. Trump. is still hoping

1:04:00

for some way to delay the trial and

1:04:02

because he seems to continue getting these last

1:04:05

minute reprieves, I am not ready

1:04:07

to say I'm confident the trial starts on April

1:04:09

15th, but it's been set. The judge, Judge Murchand,

1:04:11

is saying it's going to happen. We

1:04:13

will, of course, follow it and let you know. I

1:04:16

have a voicemail number that you can call any

1:04:18

time you want if you have something you'd like

1:04:20

to communicate to me. There's a

1:04:22

guy who apparently I blocked on Instagram. I

1:04:24

don't I blocked so many people. I don't

1:04:26

know who this guy is. He

1:04:29

is calling multiple times a day

1:04:31

to complain about the fact

1:04:33

that I apparently blocked him on Instagram.

1:04:36

This is an individual suffering with very,

1:04:39

very serious magga brain worms. Listen to

1:04:41

this and listen to how triggering it

1:04:43

is simply to be blocked

1:04:45

on Instagram. Now, it may be just like

1:04:48

a technical error and he's not even blocked.

1:04:50

I don't know. But let's take a listen

1:04:52

to this. David Hackman. Mr.

1:04:57

Hackman, did you know that you blocked me on

1:04:59

Instagram for calling you out for having to sit

1:05:01

down with the vice president of the United States?

1:05:03

You had to sit down with the vice president

1:05:05

of the United States. Someone

1:05:07

who, you know, just a few years ago

1:05:09

would actually go against the deep

1:05:11

state is now having sit downs with the

1:05:14

state. I used to be against

1:05:16

the deep state and now I'm sitting down with

1:05:18

the deep state. Well, two things to that. I

1:05:21

have never bought into

1:05:23

deep state conspiracy theories and

1:05:26

the idea that the vice president is part

1:05:28

of the deep state. I thought that the

1:05:30

vice president was controlled by the deep state

1:05:32

and the deep state was other people, shadowy

1:05:34

people, people whose names we don't know. I

1:05:37

guess I'm a little confused as to the latest

1:05:39

version of the deep state conspiracy theory. I'm sorry.

1:05:41

What happened, Mr. David Hackman? Oh, you don't sit there and

1:05:43

tell me that, oh, you're going to go against everything that

1:05:46

Kamala Harris actually tells you because you know that we're

1:05:48

not going to believe any of that nonsense. You know what

1:05:50

I would rather, OK, rather

1:05:53

than saying since you met with the VP,

1:05:55

you won't go against anything she does. I'd

1:05:58

rather you tell me something she did. And

1:06:01

then I can tell you I'm for or against

1:06:03

it. That would be a more productive way to

1:06:05

have this conversation. Mr. David Hackman, the same guy

1:06:07

who 10 years ago used to teach this

1:06:10

32 year old back then when I was 22

1:06:12

year old and in my early 20s, used to

1:06:14

teach me exactly how to go against big pharma.

1:06:17

Used to teach me how to go against the

1:06:19

military industrial complex. I taught

1:06:21

how to go against big pharma.

1:06:24

I don't remember that episode that I'm struggling

1:06:26

to remember that one, to be totally honest.

1:06:29

Go against the CIA, go against the deep

1:06:31

state, etc. You teach me all. I

1:06:33

can assure you I now I'm realizing this is delusional.

1:06:36

There are no episodes on this show

1:06:39

where I teach the audience how to

1:06:41

go against the deep state. So as

1:06:44

usual, this is someone who's confused

1:06:46

or dishonest. And to be honest,

1:06:49

it's sounding like I was right

1:06:51

to block this individual on Instagram,

1:06:53

if that's indeed what I did.

1:06:56

We will talk on today's bonus

1:06:58

show about Florida's new ban on

1:07:00

social media for minors. There

1:07:03

are actually a lot of people

1:07:05

on the left who like this,

1:07:07

despite it being another one of

1:07:09

Ron DeSantis is a pet bills.

1:07:11

We will discuss Candace Owens leaving

1:07:13

slash being fired from The Daily

1:07:15

Wire and what it means for

1:07:17

that organization and the shakeup

1:07:20

that's happening. And also Truth

1:07:22

Social goes public today starting

1:07:25

to trade on the open market.

1:07:27

What does this mean for Trump's access

1:07:30

to cash? What does this mean for

1:07:32

the platform? All questions that we will

1:07:34

endeavor to answer on today's bonus show.

1:07:37

You can sign up at join pacman.com

1:07:39

coupon code Save Democracy 24. And remember

1:07:41

that you can get my newest children's

1:07:44

book, probably the last one before

1:07:46

my my like book book is released, although maybe

1:07:48

we'll squeeze in one more kid's book. I don't

1:07:50

know yet. Think like a voter, a

1:07:53

perfect book for the election season.

1:07:55

You can get it at David

1:07:57

pakman.com/book. See you on the bonus. Amanda

1:08:00

will be back tomorrow.