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disciplined investor is all about you, your

1:15

money, and the markets. Sit back

1:17

and get ready for this edition

1:19

of the Disciplined Investor podcast. This

1:23

episode of the Disciplined Investor is

1:25

sponsored by Horowitz & Company. If

1:27

you're looking for a portfolio manager, look

1:29

no further. Horowitz & Company.

1:32

From seed through harvest, cultivating

1:34

financial success. U.S.

1:40

economy is humming along, better than expected

1:42

actually, but calls for rate cuts continue.

1:45

Is this the year for foreign? Not

1:48

so fast says markets. And

1:50

Bitcoin got post ETF blues.

1:53

Our guest today, a self-proclaimed perma

1:55

bear is Tim Knight. All

1:58

this and much more. on

2:00

episode number 853 of the

2:02

Disciplined Investor Podcast. And

2:18

here we go, amazingly wrapping up

2:20

close to January 2024 already heading

2:22

into February. And

2:25

as they say, things move

2:27

fast, I know. Andrew Horowitz here and thanks

2:29

for joining me this week. We have a

2:32

lot to talk about because markets are moving

2:34

along pretty well. Some of the markets are

2:36

moving along pretty well. In fact, I got

2:38

some stats that I want to share with

2:40

you because as we talk about new highs,

2:42

all-time highs, and markets really doing well, this

2:44

broad-based and this real, this

2:46

inclusionary equity rally that

2:49

we're seeing that they talk about so often,

2:51

I'm going to show you a few things

2:53

because I have a few

2:55

little flies in the ointment when it

2:57

comes to some of their conversation. It's

3:00

being a bit masked as we

3:02

know from some of the major

3:04

players out there, you know the

3:06

names, the Microsofts, the Apples, the

3:08

Invidias, all the names, Google for

3:10

that matter. IBM did really

3:12

well recently, but all the big names, Scratch

3:15

IBM, all the big names are

3:17

really doing very well and that is really

3:19

pulling along markets pretty significantly. In fact, only

3:21

one side of the market, in particular large

3:23

cap growth and that is

3:25

something to pay attention to because it

3:27

is not as broad-based as you would

3:29

think. Even though we saw a few

3:32

days where the advances outpaced the decliners

3:34

by a significant margin, there were a

3:36

few days where we saw up markets

3:39

when in fact, decliners outpaced and

3:41

the importance of that is talking about the

3:43

breadth of the market. How is

3:45

the participation of stocks? You know, you see

3:47

the markets up and you look at your portfolio

3:49

and you're like, hey, ho ho, wait, how

3:52

come I'm down? How come I'm not up so much? And

3:55

it's all about what's really playing and

3:57

how the market is in fact... technically

4:01

created. What is the

4:03

market anyway? When we look at the market, we

4:05

look at, you know, an index. The S&P 500, the

4:07

Dow Jones, the Nasdaq, we have Russell 1000, 2000, 3000. You

4:12

know, that's the US. Then take your pick of

4:15

sectors, whether utilities, technology,

4:17

and you can even look

4:19

at international. I want to

4:21

get into that. I want to talk about that.

4:23

I want to first mention something that's been a

4:26

little bit of a thorn in my side for

4:28

a little while, and I really didn't think about

4:30

talking to you about this until I saw

4:33

some things over the last couple of weeks happen. And

4:35

it pertains to something a little bit obscure, but

4:38

it may be something that has happened to you. Because

4:42

I see this more often than I'd

4:44

like to. And I'm going

4:46

to hurt some people's feelings here. I'm sorry. And

4:49

I'm going to, for those of you

4:51

that are in, you know,

4:54

with a insurance advisor

4:57

that also says, hey, by the way, I can

5:00

do your investments for you and

5:02

throws you into a insurance

5:04

advisor's type of mutual

5:06

fund portfolio that they never do

5:09

anything with, except for tell you

5:11

they're watching it and charging your fee.

5:13

This is something you really need to look into.

5:16

If you are someone who has that, I

5:19

really want you to take a moment

5:21

and think about what it is and

5:23

the expertise of the insurance agent. Now,

5:25

by the way, it would be the same

5:27

discussion I would have with you if

5:29

you were looking to buy insurance from

5:31

an investment dude or gal

5:34

or doodet. The fact

5:36

is, we want to really focus

5:39

in on who has the expertise in the

5:41

area that they're working in. Would you get

5:43

your electrical done by a plumber? I mean,

5:46

I don't think so. Why

5:48

are you getting your insurance from your investment

5:50

guy, per se? Or why are you getting

5:53

your investments from an insurance

5:55

gal? Just because

5:58

they have the availability and the license. sure

6:00

to do so does not necessarily mean

6:02

that they have the expertise. Something

6:05

that I want you to look at, if you have a portfolio

6:07

that is from an insurance brokerage,

6:11

I want you to ask yourself, is that the best

6:13

that you could do? What

6:16

are the alternatives? Is

6:18

there someone who specializes in investments that I

6:20

should be talking to and more

6:23

so, what are the fees I'm

6:25

paying for this? And

6:27

that is where I really started

6:29

to think about, you know what, I need to bring this to my

6:31

audience. Because I looked at a

6:33

variety of these insurance-based

6:36

quote-unquote investment portfolios,

6:39

not even the annuities, I'm not even talking about that. I'm

6:41

talking about just the strict mutual

6:43

funds. These were high-priced, non-institutional mutual

6:46

funds, some ETFs in there, but the

6:48

names inside of there were aligned with

6:51

the insurance company themselves. You know what

6:53

I'm talking about. Proprietary

6:56

types of funds. If

6:59

that is something you have,

7:01

I'd strongly suggest you just

7:03

do a review of what

7:05

it is that you have and think

7:08

about, again, am I paying too

7:10

high in fees overall for what

7:12

I'm actually getting? And

7:14

again, this came to me because recently, for

7:16

whatever reason, this happens, it just always happens

7:18

this way. There's a lot

7:21

of something that happens. And I saw a

7:23

few of these insurance-based, insurance

7:25

agent-based portfolios, and I

7:28

asked the question, you know, what are

7:30

they doing? And the client said to

7:32

me, well, you know, I don't know, it's been the

7:34

same way for like five years. There's

7:36

no changes. Not even rebalancing.

7:38

I said, not rebalancing, no. I

7:40

said, well, do they talk to you about

7:42

this? Well, I get, you know, quarterly statements from it. And

7:45

then I looked at the fees. I'm like, wow. The

7:48

advisory fees on this, because they have to split it

7:50

usually with the house. That's

7:52

something to pay attention to as well. And

7:55

the independence is not there either, because

7:58

now you have no nobody looking over the

8:00

other shoulder of the other party. That's why it's

8:03

great when you have a CPA, for example, that

8:05

you're involved in that can look at the investment

8:07

advisor's portfolio and the

8:09

investment advisor can maybe take a handle

8:12

on what's happening from a tax standpoint

8:15

and everybody works together in tandem. You

8:18

don't want the anesthesiologist doing the surgery.

8:20

You don't want the surgeon doing the

8:22

anesthesiology. You don't want the plumber doing

8:25

the electrical work. You want the

8:27

investment guys and gals doing the work, what

8:29

they're assigned to do, your insurance people assigned

8:32

to what they're supposed to be doing and

8:34

it goes like that. Something to

8:36

think about. And

8:39

now switching gears a little bit, let's talk a little

8:41

bit about this. Oh,

8:44

the idea that this is this broad-based

8:46

rally that everything is participating and all

8:48

things are good and not to worry

8:50

because it is a market

8:53

rally that is really

8:56

more than just six or seven different stocks. Well,

8:58

let's throw some cold water on that for a

9:01

minute because we look at

9:03

what happened last year. In the end of 2023, clearly

9:05

the initial move up was

9:07

on a few stocks because the

9:09

market cap weighted indices that

9:11

really favored the big names. Of course,

9:14

the things like high market

9:16

cap. Well, what do you think about Apple and

9:18

Microsoft? Of course, Microsoft, the number one size

9:20

company in the world right now. And

9:22

we think about Tesla back in the days when they

9:24

were doing well, we think about Nvidia, we think about

9:27

the primarily mostly the

9:29

tech companies out there. Well, that

9:33

fell down on its face right

9:35

at the start of January and

9:37

now all of a sudden it's

9:39

recovering very substantially where everybody's got

9:41

the AI bug once again, firmly

9:43

rooted in their investment thesis,

9:46

not letting any of these go down. In fact, it's

9:49

been days since we've seen any

9:51

retreat on any of these stocks.

9:54

Particularly names like AMD

9:56

and Nvidia. And you look

9:58

at Intel, which is a little bit. soft or not as

10:01

good. But the names that are

10:03

really ticking along very nicely, like I can't get

10:06

enough of it, no matter what their financials

10:09

are showing and what the outlook could possibly be, is like,

10:11

you know, they're going to go up forever. Trees don't

10:13

grow the sky, but you know what AI stocks do? That's

10:16

the message that we're getting right now. When

10:18

you look at the

10:21

domestic markets, let's start there

10:23

first, because the domestic

10:25

markets are outpacing the international. And

10:29

we look at whether or not it's a broad-based rally, now we

10:31

just really break it down by sectors. Even

10:34

though a lot of stocks are participating, the fact

10:36

is that this year to date, we

10:38

have the S&P 500s up about two

10:40

and a half percent, give or take.

10:42

The financials are

10:44

up 2.1 percent, healthcare is up

10:46

about a percent, tech is up a

10:49

whopping six percent when we look at the

10:51

ETFs that are representative of those

10:53

particular sectors. On the other hand, that's

10:55

it. That's where it stops. Consumer

10:58

staples are down, industrials are

11:00

down, home builders are down,

11:02

telecom, energy, materials, consumer

11:04

discretionary is down four and a half percent,

11:06

utilities down 4.6 percent.

11:08

Now, yes, I'll give

11:11

you the fact that the utilities

11:13

don't make up a big component

11:15

of the overall S&P. Who cares?

11:18

I'm with you. I got it. It's

11:21

also showing us that the reason why

11:23

we're seeing some of this, and particularly

11:25

when it comes to, for example, consumer

11:27

discretionary, you have to wonder, you know,

11:30

are consumers spending? Now, we saw a

11:32

good GDP print, we saw a decent

11:35

print on overall spending. Retail sales came

11:37

in a little bit more concerning, but

11:39

yet still pretty solid overall, but there

11:41

are signs that something's cracking at different

11:44

structures of the economic spectrum,

11:47

depending on where you are,

11:50

will depend on if you're spending

11:52

or not. If you're in, let's say, the

11:56

level of, you know, top

11:58

25 percent, wealth

12:00

you're spending you don't care and markets are

12:02

doing well you got good interest on your

12:05

money markets who cares let's go if you're

12:07

in the lower strata much

12:09

different while oil price

12:11

came down that was good still elevated a

12:13

bit prices though on

12:15

everything even though they're not escalating like

12:18

they were we don't have the inflation

12:20

that we've seen we're still

12:22

not seeing deflation we're not seeing prices move down

12:24

big issue now when it comes to the world

12:26

where are we would again the US

12:29

is the year when we talk about each and every

12:31

year at the beginning of the year hey and ask

12:34

the question is this the year that we're

12:36

going to see far and outpace

12:38

the US it's

12:40

gonna be here it's probable I mean valuations

12:42

look good not so fast

12:46

and I say that because it's

12:48

just not happening oh okay we're

12:50

only three weeks into into

12:52

2024 Andrew I get it right okay

12:55

horror would slow down a little bit

12:57

still an opportunity did you see what

12:59

happened in China over the last week

13:01

that rebound oh yeah but

13:03

let's take a look at the numbers we're

13:06

seeing turkey up 6.9 percent

13:08

that's great until you realize they

13:10

increase their lending rate the prime rate

13:12

and their fed funds rate to 45

13:15

percent because inflation is taking up a 65

13:18

percent real rate of return on stocks like a

13:20

negative 50 percent right

13:24

if you have inflation and your money

13:26

is moving down at that pace your stocks

13:28

going up doesn't mean anything let's just put

13:30

that aside forget about turkey let's look at

13:32

Japan get on fire hitting

13:35

multi-decade highs up 2.79 percent

13:38

this year that's great but again the S&P 500

13:41

where is it up 2.5 so

13:44

while the the Japanese

13:46

ETF symbol EWJ is

13:48

actually beating US and

13:51

Philippines is doing okay that's where it

13:53

ends let me throw this out at

13:56

you right the emerging market ETF down three

13:58

and a half percent this year Taiwan

14:00

down 2%, Brazil down 5%. We're

14:05

seeing that China, the large cap,

14:08

the FXI, there's more, the Hong Kong, down

14:10

5.6%, Africa down 6%, Hong Kong itself, the

14:15

actual Hong Kong ETF down 7%,

14:18

South Korea down 10%, Europe. Doing

14:23

okay. Not great. The

14:26

fact is that when we look around the world, particularly at

14:29

areas that are smaller,

14:33

emerging, right now and

14:35

in the last couple of years comparatively, on a

14:37

relative basis compared to the U.S., have not been

14:39

holding up. That's something to think

14:41

about and something to really consider when we

14:44

look at where the valuations and values are.

14:47

Talked about this with Med Faber, for example, not too

14:49

long ago. We talked about where's

14:51

the real value in the markets right now. And

14:53

I got to tell you something, the

14:55

more the markets in the U.S. move up,

14:57

which I do like, we do participate in

14:59

that, our client portfolios are heavily weighted, the

15:01

more I keep on moving and thinking about,

15:03

you know what, let's start thinking

15:06

about the valuation and the relative

15:08

opportunity in areas outside

15:10

the U.S. because when they move,

15:12

they could really move. Whether

15:14

this year is the year for it or not, another

15:16

story. But my thought is that you

15:19

want to be involved. So

15:22

my two cents on that. And

15:24

with that, we're going to get to our guests. But before I do so,

15:26

I want to talk about interactive brokers because did you know that

15:29

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learn more. So

16:11

let's get to our guest today. And our guest today is

16:14

Tim Knight. He's been charting

16:16

and trading since 1987. In

16:19

fact, his first stock trade was, listen to this,

16:22

October 19th of 1987, the day of the crash,

16:26

which I guess is why he

16:29

has a disposition towards bearishness. He's

16:33

been involved in personal computers since then 79.

16:36

And starting at age 16, he

16:38

began writing a couple of dozen books about using

16:40

and programming computers. His most

16:42

recent writing has been focused on charting

16:44

of the history of financial markets, including

16:46

the newest books, Panic, Prosperity, and Progress.

16:48

And more recently, Silicon Valley,

16:51

Babble, On and

16:53

Solid State. His

16:56

first novel. So he's been

16:58

running the Slope of Hope, Pope since 2005, and

17:01

has during that time written more than 30,000 posts and

17:06

articles on that site. In 92, he founded

17:08

Profit. So this

17:10

is where I want to make sure

17:12

you're clear on his, his abilities, right?

17:14

He founded a web-based technical analysis company

17:16

that was acquired by Investables and then

17:18

eventually Ameritrade in January, 2005. He

17:23

served as senior VP of technology for Investools

17:25

from 2005 to 2010. He's

17:28

been on Barons and all that. And besides running

17:30

a Slope of Hope, he also

17:32

hosts the Daily Show on

17:34

the Tasty Trade Network. Tasty Live

17:36

in fact, trading charts with Tim

17:38

Knight. So let's welcome Tim Knight.

17:42

So welcome, Tim, how are you? All

17:45

things considered, I'm doing okay. That's

17:47

good, that's good. You know, you don't

17:49

know this, but I'm going to quiz you anyway. Do you know the last

17:51

time that you were a guest

17:54

on the show? I

17:56

don't know. I'm hoping that you're going to tell me that it

17:59

was at the exact. off of the market before

18:01

a major inflection point, but I seriously have no idea.

18:03

It was February 2013. February

18:07

2013, I don't know what that

18:09

particular date was, but

18:12

in any particular market cycle, but that's

18:14

what it was. And the title of

18:16

it was, it was something like Perma

18:19

Bear, Tim Knight. Now that's one of

18:21

the things we're gonna talk about because you and I talked

18:23

about this back and forth, and I thought it'd be a

18:25

great time to come on and one of our emails went

18:27

back and forth and says, look, hey, listen, I'm

18:29

a Perma Bear. Everybody knows that, or at least you told me that,

18:32

right? I mean, it's not like a secret. Nope,

18:34

not. And, yeah, I wanna

18:36

talk about that, but I said, you know,

18:38

we planned this months ago, maybe February

18:40

feels like it could be something. That's what I

18:43

said, right? So, but- I hear

18:45

where, well, wait, now just a moment now. I

18:48

was distracted for like a key 1.5 seconds

18:51

when you told me the date. What was the

18:53

date of the prior interview? February 2000, the exact

18:55

date, February 2013. Oh,

19:00

okay, well that doesn't ring any bells in terms of

19:02

a major market event, but wow, it's been that long.

19:04

I thought we'd do this a couple of years ago.

19:06

Goodness. At least that's what my system shows. Yikes,

19:09

okay, well, anyway, yeah,

19:11

it's another lifetime high

19:13

as I'm staring at the screen now. It's

19:15

green all the way through and amazing. The

19:20

market remains defiant. Yeah, and that's actually

19:22

how it's been, although, listen, well,

19:25

we can look at it as a different way. Is our

19:27

10-year anniversary getting together? Oh, okay,

19:29

well, I didn't bring you anything. I'm

19:31

sorry. Well, I wanna

19:33

talk about, let's do some

19:35

defining. Let's talk about, what's

19:39

a perma bear anyway? What does that mean?

19:44

A broke guy, I don't know, let's see, how should we say

19:46

this? This is

19:48

an interesting topic because it's something I've given a

19:50

lot of thought to over the course of my

19:52

life. I

19:55

think that most people would agree a perma

19:57

bear is someone who is always, declaring

20:00

like this is it, this is the top, everything's going

20:02

to fall from here. And it could be, you know,

20:04

you could point to any asset. It could be a

20:06

crypto bear or precious metals or stocks, what have you.

20:10

And you know, my

20:13

sort of 90,000 foot

20:15

view is that the

20:18

market's really changed. And

20:21

prior to, certainly prior to 2008,

20:23

and certainly, certainly, certainly prior to 1987, the

20:27

market was really cyclic. And

20:30

you know, with almost like a sine wave, so you can see

20:32

these broad sweeps up and down. And

20:34

it kind of made sense to be inclined to

20:36

volitionists or bearishness, because you would always have your

20:38

day in the sun. The

20:41

past, gosh,

20:45

you know, 15 years, it's

20:47

been pretty much a disaster to be a

20:49

bear. I'm

20:51

doing okay, incredibly, I'm not quite sure

20:53

why. But it's

20:56

obviously almost

20:58

any stock you buy. And certainly, if it's

21:00

like an Apple or an Nvidia or a

21:02

meadow, you just buy it and you

21:05

forget it and you do great. So

21:07

a perma bear on the whole is very

21:11

kind of skeptical, discerning,

21:13

critical, and looking for

21:15

why everybody else is wrong. You know,

21:17

the funny thing about contrarianism is

21:19

that everyone thinks they're contrarian, which by

21:22

definition is impossible. But

21:25

it's people pry themselves and sort of like bucking

21:27

the crowd. But you know, the crowd is the

21:29

crowd, and on the whole, most of the components

21:31

of the crowd do not buck themselves. Well,

21:34

that's what you're saying, though. I

21:37

think the point is that in

21:39

the past 15 years, the

21:41

idea of being contrarian, the

21:44

idea of trying to find

21:46

those inflection points has become much more difficult.

21:48

And in a way, it's just much easier

21:50

just, oh, throwing the towel already, and maybe

21:53

we've been beaten into submission, right?

21:55

The cycle is broken, and then just screw

21:58

it. Just go, just go. Yeah.

22:01

Well, it's funny, you know, I'm a, I'm a

22:03

queer beast because I live right here in Palo

22:05

Alto. I'm in the Silicon Valley, you know, three

22:07

blocks from my house. Tim

22:09

Cook lives, Marissa Meyer lives, Mark Zuckerberg

22:12

lives. I'm surrounded by billionaires who've made

22:14

their fortunes from tech. Um,

22:17

and I'm this weirdo. And the thing is that

22:19

a lot of people with this notion that short

22:21

sellers and bears, like you hate America or you

22:24

hate business. I am the most pro capitalist pro

22:26

free enterprise. You know, I built and sold my

22:28

own small business. Um,

22:31

I, I love, uh, good old fashioned American

22:34

capitalism, you know, classic style. So it's nothing

22:36

to do with that. But I think, can

22:38

I interrupt you for a second? Sure. The

22:40

idea of loving capitalism goes with shorting because

22:43

you have to believe Yeah, God

22:45

bless you. It sure does. Right. Because you have

22:48

to believe that the very nature of

22:50

true and pure capitalism is

22:52

that there are those companies that will,

22:54

will, will, will win,

22:56

will survive, will thrive. And

22:58

those that will fail for one reason, it doesn't

23:00

matter the reason, but that is the basic nature

23:03

of capitalism. Capitalism is not every

23:06

single company will survive due to the

23:08

fact that they get a lifeline from

23:10

some, uh, agency of the government.

23:13

Yes, absolutely. And of course, the whole banking

23:16

sector is far and away the most guilty

23:18

of that. Um, you

23:20

know, it, I was amazed yesterday and

23:22

we're recording this, uh, you know, some

23:24

days before your broadcast, but, uh,

23:27

to, to see the BTFP program was

23:29

going to be, uh, reach its termination.

23:31

And most of your listeners, you know,

23:34

are acquainted with this. This is the Yellen vehicle

23:36

that was introduced, I think March 11th, 2023 in

23:39

the midst of Silicon Valley bank and

23:41

all the other catastrophes. And

23:43

I, I sort of cynically thought that,

23:46

well, this is just going to get

23:48

extended in perpetuity. Um, and incredibly,

23:50

you know, for the moment, I'll believe it when I

23:52

see it, they're saying that just going to let it

23:54

expire, but it really turns my stomach when,

23:56

uh, an outside force, usually

23:59

the government comes into to sort of save the day because

24:02

there's a reason we're $34 trillion in debt.

24:06

And the thing with going back

24:08

to the whole Permabear thing is you sort

24:11

of see themselves as the crazy old man

24:13

standing in the park saying you'll see, you'll

24:15

see, there'll come a day. But that's kind

24:17

of where I'm coming from. Because

24:20

it is, my kids drive crazy

24:25

because I always have the old fashioned

24:27

bromides and sayings and such. But there

24:29

really is no such thing as a

24:31

pre-lunch. And eventually the chickens come home

24:33

to roost and fill in whatever other

24:35

silly little sayings you want. But it

24:37

is not this easy. It really

24:39

is not this easy. And I remember so

24:41

well in 1999,

24:43

the cover, Fortune Magazine, there was a cartoon

24:46

and the title was

24:48

The Wine of 99. The wine's spelled

24:51

W-H-I-N-E, The Wine of 99. And

24:53

the man in the cartoon was saying, everyone's getting rich except

24:55

for me. And

24:57

that really was the

25:00

zeitgeist because NASDAQ was

25:02

going insane. And the thing is that

25:04

you and I are speaking in January of 2024, if this was January 2000,

25:11

and I'd been fighting this crazy NASDAQ

25:13

bull market and had

25:15

been dealing with like, Jesus, you're missing out.

25:17

And why aren't you buying, fill

25:21

in the blank Yahoo or what have you? And

25:24

I could just wiggle my finger and say, you'll see,

25:27

you'll see. The fact is that the NASDAQ went up

25:29

another like 40% in the

25:31

next like two months, or it actually went down

25:33

90%. So

25:35

it's really tough to see like, when

25:37

will the mania end? And then if

25:40

the mania ends and it

25:42

goes down 40%, let's just

25:44

give you that number, right? So the NASDAQ goes up

25:46

40% one year, and

25:48

you miss out on that because you're not you, but

25:50

the general concept of being a bear and you're just

25:52

fighting it. And maybe you're either not participating it or

25:54

God forbid you're fighting the whole way, right? You know,

25:56

you walk the whole way. And

25:59

then you're right. On the other side, but would

26:01

you agree i'm not trying to change your mind about anything.

26:03

I just want to talk through this Uh-huh.

26:05

Uh, wouldn't you agree that even

26:08

historically through the cyclical nature of

26:10

the markets that generally speaking that

26:12

markets have been up? Uh,

26:15

well, we know they are because they're not at the

26:17

bottom, right? So markets have been up more than they

26:20

have been down markets now not maybe a stock here

26:22

or there. Oh, no Listen, i'll tell you the anecdotes

26:24

my my beloved son Um, my

26:26

first child I I think

26:28

I honestly think it was like nine Um,

26:31

and I was trying to describe, you know,

26:33

shoring stock and so forth and this little

26:35

kid Said something

26:37

like well, why wouldn't you just

26:40

buy something since things tend to go up anyway?

26:42

You know like from the mouths of babes, right?

26:44

Yeah, and he's absolutely right So and I

26:46

I tell and the thing is like it's

26:49

way too late for any sort of victory lap I mean the dal

26:51

could fall 20 000 points this

26:53

year believe I I swear on this program I'm

26:55

putting my hand on the bible, you know, I

26:57

would not be like c told you so honestly

27:00

You know when i've been fighting the market this

27:02

long forget it, you know, it it would be cool But

27:05

there's no victory lap under any

27:07

circumstance There's no doubt about

27:09

it that just just throwing

27:12

money any year At

27:14

the market and just kind of not doing anything with it

27:17

Is the way to go i'll throw you another anecdote Um,

27:20

my my departed father, he never

27:22

made much money and he didn't have

27:24

any expenses He there went to public schools and all that

27:26

other stuff. He really just kind of scraped by And

27:29

somehow in the latter portion of his life Uh,

27:32

he amassed a lot of money And

27:35

it was just because he just kind

27:37

of threw money in the market and just

27:39

let it sit and you know Uh, he

27:42

didn't really start investing until he was like

27:46

65 wow And it was

27:48

it was like a lot And

27:50

that sort of was proof positive me like well, first

27:52

of all, not all of us knights are, you know

27:54

cursed Secondly, you know, my

27:56

my dad can wait till he's like elderly and

27:59

start doing doing this and do

28:01

really well. Invidia

28:03

of course is the, completely

28:05

as anyone yesterday just for kicks. I

28:08

calculated, and this is just a silly experiment,

28:10

but I calculated $10,000 in Invidia at the

28:12

IPO would

28:14

be worth 17 million now. And just for a

28:16

hell of a 600,000 would be worth a billion.

28:21

Because there's a page on my site, sobaheup.com

28:23

that I made years ago, it's called Wooda

28:26

Shoulda Coulda. And all

28:28

you do is just punch in a symbol, a dollar amount and

28:30

a date. And it says, you know, hey, Jack, ask if you

28:33

had bought this amount on this date, it's now worth this much.

28:35

And it's really fascinating cause like, it's easy to

28:37

say, oh no, it's worth 17 million. The cool

28:40

thing about the page is it'll tell you your

28:42

maximum drawdown. And like, whether

28:44

it's Amazon or Invidia, the drawdown is usually

28:46

like 92%. And

28:49

so you can say to yourself, yeah, if I

28:51

had a time machine, I would be rich, but would

28:53

I have really just crossed my arms and waited for

28:55

this thing to drop 92%? And

28:57

just said, uh-uh, no, I'm not budging. You know, it's

28:59

worth 8% what it was earlier, but

29:01

who cares? And then it goes up again. That's

29:04

why we're not all billionaires. Cause I don't think it's

29:06

part of human nature to just buy something and say

29:08

like, all right, check with me in 20 years. Let's

29:10

see how that's going. We're just like, I made a

29:12

5% profit, I'm out. Yay, you know, that's it. So

29:16

as a, another point about this though,

29:18

that I'm always really fascinated about, is

29:21

let's say that in any given year, you

29:23

approved 100% right, you know, to

29:26

yourself. Not to anybody else, to yourself. That

29:28

I saw

29:30

this stock. Let's just stay

29:32

on NVIDIA for the hell of it. Cause NVIDIA is, you know, obviously

29:34

the poster child for, you know, a

29:37

harkening back to the 2000s, early 2000s, right? It

29:41

just goes up every day, whether the news is good or

29:43

bad. And, you know,

29:45

right now everybody believes that, I guess

29:47

trees do, you know. Uh-huh, they go

29:49

into the sky, yeah. But okay, that's fine, okay. You

29:51

know, everybody's, the old Dell adage, you know, that

29:54

everybody's going to see me, we have six Dell desktops on

29:56

their desk to meet the current amount.

29:58

But okay. you know, AI is

30:00

going to take over, Nvidia and all that, okay, you're right, you're

30:03

right. That Nvidia slows down, there's

30:05

something, a hiccup that happens, it's down 25%

30:08

from some analyst downgrade, they're no longer allowed

30:10

to sell to China, and

30:12

their chips aren't as great as they

30:14

were, but you know, you

30:17

ever stop and say, okay, let me collect my profits

30:19

here, or let me say that I was right about

30:21

that, but okay, fine, the future

30:23

still looks bright for them, and then I

30:25

go back to, dare I say,

30:27

the other side, right?

30:30

The non-barish side, whether it's

30:32

a stock or it's a market, when do you flip?

30:35

Ever, if you don't ever flip, if

30:37

you never flip, there's not a lesson, that's not

30:39

what I'm saying, I'm just trying to understand, if

30:41

you never flip either way, if you're always bullish,

30:43

you're always bearish, obviously we know,

30:45

because you just flushed this out, that being bullish

30:48

from the mouth of babes is long-term

30:51

from your dad, you know, the way to

30:53

mass wealth, okay, fine, but if

30:56

you are always bullish or

30:59

always bearish on the totality of it

31:01

all, how does that help anybody? Yeah,

31:04

I know, no, you're absolutely right, and the

31:06

reason we're not doing this interview in the soup

31:08

kitchen is because, you know, ironically,

31:11

Mr. Permivir here, you know,

31:13

obviously most of whatever

31:16

wealth I have, it's like long, so to

31:18

speak, so like, you know, I own my

31:20

house, I own some investment properties, I own

31:22

stock in a startup,

31:25

and so on, so it's

31:27

not like, honey, we can't eat

31:29

tonight because we're broke again, you know, so the

31:32

thing people find surprising is that the

31:34

amount of money that I've

31:36

got, like, on the bear side

31:38

is just vanishingly small, I

31:40

mean, frankly, it's just because I love charting, and I

31:43

like to keep things interesting, and I lose interest if

31:45

I don't have any skin in the game at all,

31:47

but, so that's just like, you know,

31:49

why I've been able to

31:52

survive this craziness. As far as the bullish and

31:54

bearish, you know, Clearly the

31:56

most successful traders, and this is like a

31:58

virtue that traders seek. They. Are.

32:02

Flexible. Adapt to reflect the whatever

32:04

as if you want to use in terms of

32:06

like I used to work for very famous traitor

32:08

and he wouldn't he wouldn't make it. He would

32:11

describe as the kinda like surfing. Ah,

32:13

I'm you really? just writing the

32:15

waves? And. The

32:18

thing is be a funny thing that the

32:20

in the rare instances that we do get

32:22

a rock I'm saw Com Bear market the

32:24

last more than like a day. You.

32:26

Know the most recent which spanned

32:28

from November Twenty Twenty One, Two,

32:31

June, Twenty Twenty Two. And.

32:33

I the grand old time. If he had

32:35

been shaken it with me then I be

32:37

castigating myself nonstop for getting up too soon.

32:40

So you know is like finally finally finally

32:42

and that this the poison of this and

32:44

indicated that it can do in your question

32:46

can make going from boasts burst half. Once.

32:49

You get sort of used to the market going

32:51

a certain way. You get very skittish. And.

32:53

So like you know if it's November, Twenty

32:55

Twenty One is like you know. Well I've

32:58

been losing the oh since since hum

33:00

robbing with king would find in the markets

33:02

falling. In. Our and you get after losing

33:04

losing losing losing losing you get like a seven

33:06

percent profit or something. you get out pat yourself

33:08

on the back then it goes on like of

33:10

me a three hundred percent profit. You lose your

33:12

mind. You know his job is to do it

33:14

is thing about this because us. It

33:17

always seems like. You. To buy

33:19

the contrary side things it almost seems like you

33:21

know if you are to be surfing. right?

33:23

And you find that cut. To.

33:26

Try to, but you don't move the other

33:28

direction. And then. You.

33:31

Are inclined to be long? You say?

33:33

hey, wait a second. You. Know

33:35

things are turning. And. You get in

33:37

on that on the. Right

33:39

side and you start moving down. The one

33:41

thing that has always been fascinating for me

33:43

is. When. Is that

33:45

happened right? That turn? And. Usually.

33:48

It's. I

33:50

think a lot of people get in there on

33:52

on the wrong side too early whether the stock

33:55

is down, yet alluded to earlier than just frustrating get

33:57

out. Or. Don't.

33:59

at all to it either side, either

34:01

side of the equation, right? Stock, you're like,

34:03

okay, finally turned. Oh my gosh, it's down

34:06

7%. I'm out. Meanwhile,

34:08

wait, you didn't, you didn't let

34:10

the wave progress. Yeah. And

34:13

that, and that's a very difficult thing,

34:15

isn't it? Yeah, the human brain is

34:17

really not wired to make money in the markets.

34:19

I heard an interview yesterday from

34:22

a fellow, a very famous trader, who was talking about

34:24

his early days trading, and he was, I think he

34:26

was like long gold or something like that. I don't

34:28

know if he's long or short, but it doesn't matter

34:31

the story. The thing is that position was going against

34:33

him. And it was, he was

34:35

in a big losing position, but he wanted to double

34:37

the size of it. And he went

34:39

to his boss, you know, kind of risk management and said,

34:41

can I do this? He says, sure, but before

34:44

you do close out your

34:46

existing position, then go back in. It's

34:49

like, well, that seems ridiculous. Why would I bother,

34:51

but okay. And so he did, he

34:53

closed the position. And then he's like, you

34:55

know what? I'm out. You know,

34:57

I'm not gonna do it. And it was,

35:00

you know, the manager was, the manager was

35:02

wise because he knew that basically you reset

35:04

your disposition instead of like, damn

35:06

it, I'm gonna, I'm gonna average down and

35:08

you know, I'm gonna get them and et

35:10

cetera. But once you're like flat and you,

35:12

it'll let your brains allowed to like be

35:14

objective. It's like, wait, dummy, no, this is

35:16

not a good trade. And

35:18

so I thought that was an interesting anecdote about

35:20

how our minds play with this. And

35:23

in terms of a bird bear thing, I just want to say

35:25

it, it's, I want to say like, this is very clumsy, but

35:27

it's more like hermit difference or

35:29

like the contrarian thing. Because, you know,

35:32

I'll give an example. You said like

35:34

right now, you know, give me your

35:36

best guess in 10 years,

35:38

what's the most valuable company in

35:40

the world? I would actually say, you

35:43

know, I think Tesla, that seems

35:45

crazy. That seems crazy. Because first of all,

35:47

it's run by this guy that a lot

35:49

of people can't stand. But worse yet, you

35:52

know, of the Magnificent Seven, six of

35:54

them have been sending the world on a fire. They make

35:56

new highs every day. And Tesla is

35:58

down. 55% from

36:00

its peak. Its price is equal to

36:03

what it was in November 2020. So

36:06

there's been like 32 months of

36:09

zero percent growth. It's a dog and people

36:11

don't say mag 7 anymore It's like the

36:13

mag 6 now. Super 6. Super 6. Yeah.

36:15

Super 6. So and I'm

36:17

not choosing it Okay,

36:19

super 7. That's good. See you're ahead of the curve. I didn't know

36:21

that was new term. I got it but

36:23

in terms of like You

36:26

know, it's like are you nuts? You know,

36:28

you're gonna choose this pig. It's like your

36:30

pick. It's like well I've got you know,

36:32

cuz the thing and I think I think

36:34

that if I may phrase the bears a

36:36

bit I think one thing that sets them

36:38

apart is they they really try to take

36:40

the the macro slash history slash social morse

36:44

Into account because if I had

36:47

any sense at all, I'd probably stop equities and

36:49

just be with crypto because crypto I dabble

36:51

in I did pretty well with it, but it's much more

36:53

in my mind a pure market And

36:57

It's really cool because if you're a student of

36:59

history Especially market history

37:01

and you saw the same thing I did it's

37:03

like ETFs ETFs ETFs and then back in my mind

37:05

And I said this on my program daily. It's like,

37:08

um, you know, probably the millisecond these things

37:10

are rolled out That's gonna be the top

37:12

for a while and that's exactly what happened

37:14

They got to about Bitcoin got to about

37:16

50,000 a dozen Bitcoin ETFs came out and

37:18

the thing fell I

37:20

think like eleven thousand dollars by

37:22

the way makes no sense Although

37:24

I have said very publicly that

37:26

the Bitcoin ETF Rollout

37:28

the acceptance of Bitcoin in

37:30

an ETF as a mainstream

37:33

Investment now should really piss

37:35

off the Bitcoin absolutus, you

37:38

know, whereas it was a kind

37:41

of a private a secretive a You

37:44

know change the world accepted as a currency.

37:47

It's going now. It just went mainstream. It

37:49

should be totally And it

37:51

blows the whole cover off what this

37:53

is which in my opinion It's just

37:55

a speculative investment all the other parts,

37:57

you know, the the wealth a

38:00

storage of wealth or

38:04

transaction payment alternative?

38:08

No. No, it's not. I

38:11

grappled with this for a long time because I

38:14

consider myself pretty much on

38:16

the cutting edge of tech, even at my older

38:18

age now. Through

38:21

my whole life, I've been a very, very early

38:23

adopter. And with Bitcoin, it's like, okay, maybe I'm

38:25

so old now that I'm just stupid and I

38:27

can't figure things out anymore. And I read books

38:29

and I read articles. I thought about it. I

38:31

talked to people. It's just like, man, my skull

38:33

is so thick. I'm just not getting it. And

38:35

then it finally hit me to like, oh,

38:37

wait a second. This is a gambling token.

38:39

Yes, exactly. The

38:42

entire crypto industry is a gambling

38:44

token. It wasn't designed as such, but

38:46

people get their gambling yayas out. They

38:49

get their heart pumping and they can participate

38:52

in this very, very liquid 24-7-365 party.

38:56

Yeah, 4 a.m. You're up on a Saturday night.

38:58

You're all gassed up. Go. Right.

39:01

And this sort

39:03

of libertarian notion that

39:05

it's wrapped around or

39:07

the utility of the thing is like,

39:09

no, nobody. A giant PR campaign is

39:11

what that was. Well, I would love

39:13

this because like you read these stats

39:16

that to me seem completely implausible. I've

39:19

seen it more than once about like, you know, we

39:21

did a survey and 57 percent

39:24

of Americans own crypto and some kind

39:26

of like, no, they don't. No, they

39:28

don't. I live in Palo Alto. This is the center of the tech universe.

39:31

I could stop 100 people on the streets. They

39:33

do on crypto. If five of them

39:36

said yes, I'd be surprised. Yeah, 57 percent. What?

39:40

I want to read you some names and

39:42

tell me I think and let's

39:44

bring this all together. A thought

39:46

process here. Okay. Ready? Okay. Sure.

39:49

Jesse Livermore, Jim Chano, Andrew Left,

39:51

David Einhorn, John Paulson, Bill Ackman,

39:53

Carson Block, George Soros. Okay. Do

39:55

you want me to pick a name and talk about it? I'm going to

39:57

tell you what they have in common. I'll tell you. I'll say it with

39:59

him. Oh, okay. Okay. Okay. Eight most

40:02

famous short sellers in history. Now,

40:06

Jesse Livermore is dead, but that's another story entirely

40:08

went bankrupt several times, right? Yes.

40:10

Okay. Jim Chano's not the one so

40:12

close enough as fund. Right.

40:15

Andrew Left has, it was, seems

40:18

to have gone, actually, I think

40:22

Andrew Left and maybe Carson

40:25

Block to Bill Ackman as well, have really

40:28

kind of ditched the whole short idea. Yes.

40:31

David Einhorn, I think he's a gambler, he plays both

40:33

sides of that. John Paulson

40:37

was a one hit wonder. That gold,

40:39

gold to gold. Yep. Okay. And no, and Well,

40:41

that, that forgive, forgive me, gold was the next

40:43

thing that was going to be, that's not where

40:45

you made his fortune. He made his fortune in

40:47

the financial crisis. Yeah, but and so I beg

40:49

your pardon for like screen up history there, but

40:51

that then his, his act two was going to

40:53

be gold. Yes. And that didn't play out very

40:55

well for me there. And George Soros, we'll just

40:57

leave that in names there. But one thing they

40:59

have in all in common is that they're not.

41:02

They were the most famous short sellers.

41:05

Many of them either change their stripes.

41:08

Again, I'm not doing this as a, as a look at

41:10

you. I'm all in for the shorting. I mean,

41:12

we got short positions on our portfolios right now. I'm

41:15

all in for hedging. I'm all in it.

41:17

I'm also having this discussion with you. Not

41:20

at you, but with you, right? Talking this,

41:22

talking this through here. What

41:25

I want to know is from you, because

41:28

you are a technician,

41:31

market technician, chartist. Where

41:34

do you, when you look at, because you can't

41:36

these days, and I'm sure you'd agree with this.

41:39

You can't look at fundamentals as the, as

41:41

the, as the reason why. Because

41:44

if you did, you can get blown

41:46

out and just absolutely face trampled when

41:48

the rescue squad comes out. Oh,

41:50

like the fact AMD has a PE of 1300. I

41:53

think it's more like 1700 today. And

41:55

I'm sure, I'm sure that stock by

41:57

the way, just a point. Yes,

42:00

it's about 1,400 now. So yeah, in the year like 3,500,

42:02

we'll earn that out, no problem. Yeah,

42:07

it's a long-term play.

42:09

It's an investment, not a trade. Exactly.

42:12

How do you identify bearish setups? Like,

42:14

what do you look for? Yeah,

42:17

so yeah, definitely not fundamentals.

42:20

My entire philosophy about charting is

42:23

that every morsel of public information,

42:25

actually every morsel of information period

42:28

is in it. And

42:30

I think charts can be quite prescient in a way.

42:37

The piece of it is kind of funny to

42:39

look at sometimes, you see how goofy they are, but

42:42

it is kind of meaningless and I'm just not a

42:44

fun little guy at all. So I'm a kind of

42:46

classic Edward and McGee sort of pattern guy. And

42:52

this will tie back to my gritty

42:54

and my teeth over like government

42:56

interference. The general principle behind it

42:58

is that human nature is immutable

43:00

and repeats through time. And

43:03

that left to its own devices, you can see the

43:06

human spirit, if you will, sort of expressing itself

43:08

through the motion of a chart. And

43:11

I emphasize left to its

43:13

own devices, the natural supply demand

43:16

flows for a given instrument. The other

43:19

cool thing about it is that any

43:21

given instrument has its personality. You

43:23

know, I can look at a chart and

43:26

see if it's, you know, to me

43:29

tradable or not, because

43:31

there are some charts which,

43:34

frankly, you know, like they do nothing but

43:36

go up year after year, decade after decade.

43:38

God bless them. It's just not interesting to

43:40

me. I'm looking for, you know, Tesla is

43:42

a great example right now because, you know,

43:45

for weeks I've been talking to people. I

43:47

used to not be in the Fibonacci's very much, but I

43:50

would like I've been completely obsessed with the Fibonacci's and Tesla.

43:52

And I had said just yesterday before

43:55

earnings came out, you know, if the

43:57

following happens, you know, look out

43:59

below and that's that's exactly what took place

44:01

because I'm looking for key areas of

44:05

support and resistance, massing of

44:07

ownership. So it's a combination

44:09

of pattern recognition, clusters

44:12

of activity which denote clear

44:14

support and resistance levels. For

44:17

me, the toughest, almost impossible kind of

44:20

thing to define is the kind

44:22

of market we're in right now, which is where you're getting new highs all

44:24

the time. Whether you're talking about,

44:26

as you just said, AMD or SMH,

44:28

the Semiconductor Index or Nvidia, it's just

44:30

like God knows. I mean, if God

44:32

himself came down and said, hey, guess what, in a year from now, Nvidia

44:34

will be $5,000 a share. I

44:37

have no reason to dispute

44:39

that because

44:43

there's nothing holding it back. When you have no over in

44:45

supply and when there's nothing but zeal about

44:47

a particular financial instrument, the sky's

44:49

the limit until such time as like people

44:51

are exhausted from the buying and

44:54

then people just get just wiped out. They just sell

44:56

everything else and put it into video. That's what they're

44:58

doing. Right. So

45:00

what I find way more interesting is

45:04

charts with a lot of history to them and

45:06

they sort of express their personality, their nature, how

45:08

they behave, if they have a propensity to base

45:11

or top out, kind

45:14

of chart-friendly type

45:16

of instruments. And you know, Tesla's

45:18

a great example of that these days where Nvidia,

45:20

even Mr. Permivy here, I would not go near

45:23

it with a 50-foot hole. I'll

45:25

give you one last Nvidia example. You know,

45:27

only earlier this month, let me find the

45:29

exact day because I'm curious, there's

45:32

a trend line that goes back forever,

45:35

goes back to their IPO. And as

45:37

of January 10, 2024, it

45:40

had butted right up against the trend line. And

45:43

I said, well, that really should be

45:45

it because this is a

45:47

long, strong trend line. It like

45:50

flipped its middle finger at me and just kept

45:52

going. And so I didn't touch it, but

45:54

it went from like, it was at 546 when

45:57

there's that the trend line. And as we're talking right now, it's

45:59

at 6. 26 and

46:01

so yeah, I stay away from stuff. That's

46:03

just You have to look

46:05

at you have to look at things like You

46:08

know some of the recent action and

46:10

for whatever the reason whether there's still stimulus in

46:12

the system whether it's the the general nature

46:14

of Optimism of the

46:16

future if things get really bad people

46:18

believe it's gonna be bailed out which time and time again That

46:20

has proven to be the fact that has proven

46:23

to be the value. Yeah, and most recently in

46:25

March of 2023 I

46:27

think what's going on Israel Israel

46:29

stock market dropped for Two

46:32

weeks three weeks and it came right back Yeah,

46:35

and you got to think that you know China which

46:37

is down dramatically this year. Just I was just looking

46:39

at some numbers You know

46:41

Hong Kong was down seven and a half percent

46:43

this year It's down out of twenty five percent

46:45

over the last three months four months five months,

46:47

whatever it is here What is some ridiculous amount

46:50

of money? Amount of

46:52

time it's down You know

46:54

is that a place to bet on in fact? We

46:57

did add that for portfolios. We had

46:59

a position in China and Boosted

47:01

up oil recently as opposed

47:03

to precious metals I guess

47:06

the point is that you know, you have to look

47:08

at those trends and also both sides of the trends,

47:10

right? That's what you're saying and look at what yeah The

47:14

China US thing is a great example

47:16

because you know earlier today I saw

47:18

an overlay of those two markets and

47:20

it's like they're mirror images and

47:23

it's not like China I mean, it's not like China's

47:26

been just sitting back saying well, you know, we want

47:28

to be real capitalist Let's just let it do the

47:30

you know quite the opposite short selling has been banned

47:33

Hundreds of billions of US dollars equivalent

47:35

have been thrown at the market. The

47:37

government is buying ETFs directly You

47:40

know every all kind about six different programs have

47:42

been announced in the past week and it bounced

47:44

like for a few days Then

47:46

it started fall. It's just stalled out again Well

47:48

a lot of the people are really concerned about

47:51

the housing and you know I read another article

47:53

here that you probably have seen also a lot

47:55

of people even though Bitcoin is and crypto is

47:57

banned in in China defining ways somehow to get

47:59

around it, which is always the case, right? Yeah,

48:02

no. Around the corner

48:04

from my house is a little cottage, just

48:06

about 900 square feet, and

48:08

it's on half an acre. And I remember back in 2016, some

48:11

China national paid $10 million for it. And it's

48:13

been empty. I walk my dogs by it every

48:15

morning. It's empty ever since. So they

48:17

will find someplace to stash their cash. But

48:21

yeah, so a person looking at the China

48:23

US graph, a person to

48:25

draw in the extreme one

48:27

of two conclusions, either a, well, look at what

48:29

the US has done, China's going to wake up

48:31

with some coffee and start to rock

48:33

and roll too. So let's get China while it's

48:35

cheap. Or two, China's

48:37

more indicative of where the

48:39

market should be, and the US is crazily

48:42

overvalued, and these are going to converge. You

48:44

know, that's funny you mentioned that. Because

48:46

for years, and I haven't really studied

48:49

this, but I've just, you

48:51

know, sometimes your brain can see things, you know, I'm talking

48:53

about, right on charts. And yes, yes,

48:56

that's my whole life. Yeah, there's a weird lagging

48:58

thing with China and US that I've

49:00

seen. There's like, China

49:03

goes down first, and

49:05

then recovers faster, or, or

49:08

then then let's say US, I've seen this

49:10

time and time again, history, where China seems

49:12

to be a leading for whatever reason, I'm

49:15

not saying they're smarter. But

49:17

for whatever reason, we saw this during the pandemic,

49:19

we saw this during the financial crisis, we saw

49:22

this a variety of times, where China almost like

49:24

took the brunt, and then

49:26

was like three or four or five months ahead of

49:28

where we were. Now you can check that out. But

49:30

that's, that's what I saw the best. Yeah, that is,

49:32

that is very interesting. Well, you know, I think if

49:35

we do this over a lifetime, it can

49:37

become, it can become

49:39

as engrossing as the most devout

49:42

religious fanatic, because, you know,

49:44

it's just like, well, it's a

49:46

church. So it's like, no, there's

49:48

not a so what, this is

49:51

the entire human experience. This is

49:53

history. This is politics. This is

49:55

society. This is technology is basically

49:57

everything that makes Earth Earth boyish.

50:00

down to what goddamn Nvidia is

50:02

doing or anything else. To me,

50:04

it's endlessly fascinating. And it

50:06

can even go into the realm of

50:08

like, what is human nature

50:11

and psychology and all the

50:13

rest of it. So I've long held, you

50:16

must love what you do day to day.

50:21

You must wake up excited about

50:23

what you're about to embark upon

50:26

and charting. I

50:29

do not depend on investing to

50:31

live, otherwise we'd be having this conversation at

50:33

a cemetery. But

50:35

it's a great, great passion of

50:37

mine. I'm endlessly,

50:39

it's more fun when the market's

50:42

down. But listen, if I didn't

50:44

love this to pieces, I would have quit a

50:46

long time ago. Well, you know what, listen, one

50:48

thing I will guarantee you and you can write

50:50

this down, markets will be down one day. Yeah,

50:55

maybe even in our lifetime. It's possible. Well,

50:57

it's a little scary. I got to level with you because

51:00

I am a student of history and I love politics history

51:02

and all the rest of it. And I

51:05

sound like the crazy man in the park again, but

51:08

seriously, things

51:10

by the end of 2025, certainly, something

51:13

enormous has got to take place. I

51:16

just think things are coming to a

51:18

gigantic head. And yes, the government can

51:20

restall the inevitable for a while, but

51:22

it's only going to make things worse.

51:25

We can just sit here and list headwinds.

51:27

Now, I'm not suggesting these

51:29

headwinds are important as

51:31

earth shattering or they're unimportant,

51:34

but so far they've

51:36

been able to be papered over with paper money.

51:39

And I mean, we can name headwinds like

51:41

the potential for a massive Middle East conflict,

51:43

which is happening by the way, and

51:46

still oil's not really resolving. Situation,

51:49

Taiwan, Philippines, what is called

51:51

Asia conflict. The

51:55

basic lack

51:57

of Any kind of... Queer.

52:01

Well. Well the the bankruptcy of I for says

52:03

you have you. Read. Me we can

52:05

name a hundred different. Forget about global Warming of

52:07

pulling, whatever, whatever all the as you know that

52:10

this is. Well Seth the the other thing about

52:12

it a note. You and I have done this

52:14

for a very long time. We read a tremendous

52:16

amount study this. And. I'll speak

52:18

for myself. I barely know what's going

52:21

on. I'm Korean, yes, even the whole

52:23

like the Hof bed plumbing thing. that

52:26

the rude or the of.

52:29

The. Weather. Called a report

52:31

reverse repos a meteor paid my

52:34

on and on and on I

52:36

have I have studied, read thought

52:38

about this like happy or understanding

52:40

like that plumbing. I do not

52:42

get. Maybe I'm just not the sharpest fact.

52:44

I don't get it at all. I should

52:46

get It is incredibly important. We live and

52:49

in an amazingly complex world and people to

52:51

do this for a living three galore. Again,

52:53

I don't know Jack for that's the point.

52:55

That's the beauty of using charts. You don't

52:57

have to know all the ins and outs

53:00

of when the friend is doing of a

53:02

reverse repo. operations are that's less or more

53:04

than or when you know you have a

53:06

bond auction that goes this way or that

53:08

way and the direct vs. indirect myers or

53:10

yeah act just. You know, companies doing a

53:13

secondary was that it does matter. Yeah.

53:15

None of that matters. Because. You gallon

53:17

visually. Yes, exactly Yeah,

53:19

You're right that that is a sacred truth.

53:21

You know. And it's And And and then

53:23

we'll take it one step further. for the

53:26

purest. You. Looking to chart the

53:28

best things you never do You know this is take

53:30

the name of the stock off the chart. Ill.

53:33

Get stuck charge look at them. doesn't matter

53:35

what their know if you're if you're a

53:37

purist and the technical analysis I right. yeah,

53:39

just and just overlay what you do and

53:41

then make a decision determined on that's our

53:44

and then that's to. You can sharpen you

53:46

saw. In. That realm once you put

53:48

the name of the stock in the

53:50

like, oh oh off I. We don't

53:52

ever buy hate Starbucks coffee. There is

53:54

no way I'm by in that stock.

53:57

Yeah. That's what is it as a hilarious

53:59

thing, but. I was like, over the weekend, I looked at

54:01

even more charts than I normally do. And

54:03

there were some stocks which, you

54:06

could put a butter knife on the screen and

54:08

it would cover every price bar was just up

54:10

every single year, like endlessly. And it's like, you

54:12

know, the sort of stocks that have like literally

54:15

like thousands and thousands of percentage gains. And I

54:17

would be like, what do these guys do? I'd

54:19

look at like, they make uniforms. Like, are you

54:21

kidding me? Like, I think it was called Sintas.

54:23

So they were all like- Sintas, of course, Sintas,

54:26

yeah, great company. So often they would be the

54:28

most pedestrian boring things, part of it's because uniform

54:30

makers can have a PE of 50 in

54:33

this market, but it's like, you know, these

54:35

are not like biotech firm that cured

54:37

all cancer. No, they make nurses uniforms.

54:40

You wanna hear something interesting? I was just, I

54:42

just wrote somebody's this for a reason. The

54:45

number two position in

54:48

our portfolio, our

54:50

equity trading portfolio for clients

54:52

this year is a

54:54

company called Janus,

54:57

Janus International. What

54:59

is Janus International, you may ask, right? No, it

55:01

is not the company that does the stocks and

55:04

bonds. They do storage, storage.

55:09

Like public storage stores? Yeah, storage and

55:11

industrial, you know,

55:13

movement of things. You know, yeah. Well,

55:17

yeah, as- I'm talking about

55:19

30% in the last like month and a half. That's

55:21

amazing. As a customer of storage, I've said that

55:23

this is an incredible business model because if people

55:26

learn anything like me, it's like you store it.

55:28

And it's like, I never wanna deal with this

55:30

again. And you just dutifully pay it every month.

55:32

And so, and you turn back

55:34

and say, I've spent $10,000 storing a bunch of

55:36

old pots and pans. But

55:39

that's a great, actually, it is a great industry because

55:41

not only do you get the storage, but you get

55:43

the rent from it to pay for, you're sitting on

55:46

land that one day, hopefully you'll turn over to somebody

55:48

who wants to buy, you know, build a 40 story

55:50

tower. Yeah,

55:52

the most incredible businesses are

55:54

so dull. They Just, they

55:56

print money. Yeah, exactly. Well,

55:58

Tim Knight, Dare I say

56:00

the Black Knight Ah, the Red knife. The

56:03

rest of it. I will have a slope

56:05

a hopewell else can people get into to

56:07

do. I was really the

56:09

best way to Slope of hope that

56:11

Com Ah were in our nineteenth year

56:14

now. So rip real survivors in this

56:16

markets and you're just joking aside, Slope

56:18

Islam Zola charging you will find nothing

56:21

in there dedicated to bearishness or bullishness.

56:23

It's about charging. It's just so happens

56:25

that I run the place of people

56:27

like a supermodel from burst A and

56:30

ah yeah it's if you liked her

56:32

it's you should check it out, will

56:34

be hooked.com and I'm also I'm Tom

56:37

Sauce and off. The Great. Themselves

56:40

on a of a. Sink.

56:43

Or swim fame of course now. Tasty.

56:45

Life aimed. I've had a Pergamon tasty

56:47

lives ever since. They.

56:49

Started so they can check me out

56:52

on there as well. Okay, greats. Okay

56:54

well ah, we will last recovery hopefully

56:56

before the next decade. Yeah.

56:59

Yeah, you know what and during this entire conversation the

57:01

market slip a little bit. Of

57:04

a you know that you are muslims as

57:06

you were right yeah was sleep on it.

57:08

Doesn't drive a sucker down to three thousand

57:10

on the as I have been a lot

57:12

of fun. they're going to take that we

57:14

we can talk all day for sensitive talk

57:16

to somebody or think you have one. I

57:19

like that we talk about a lot of

57:21

things on the show, right? But

57:23

really? Getting down in deep into the. Individuals.

57:26

Psychology About. About

57:29

investing About how it is that

57:31

some people could be. Bullish.

57:33

All the time some people who bears any and

57:35

and by the way to make money's. In.

57:37

Different ways. Invest

57:40

in different ways but outcomes that a

57:42

hope We still very profitable. The.

57:45

Facts of the matter is though when I look back

57:47

and I think about all the things that we just

57:49

talked about. What? Resonates to

57:51

me. Is. The. Reality

57:53

that having a single minded

57:55

outlook the does not change

57:57

and you do not allow.

58:00

Would you change? May. Not

58:02

be the best interests of anybody. Whether.

58:04

You're it. over this sort. over that. One.

58:08

Side sticking to it. Without.

58:10

The ability to be flexible, Probably.

58:13

Is not the best thing to be. When.

58:15

You're investing. Just. Have to

58:17

think about. Well. Thank you so much

58:20

again for joining me As you do is every week. We.

58:22

Have a great list of of

58:25

of of guess lined up over

58:27

the next several months. Actually so

58:29

sick around. Stay tuned it. will

58:31

be here all over again next

58:33

week as joining us. To

58:44

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