0:00

Off top, sloths can sleep

0:02

while hanging from trees because their hands

0:04

work opposite as humans. They have to

0:06

exert energy to open their fists. Play

0:09

music. This is the Dominique Foxworth

0:11

Show. All right. Welcome

0:19

to the Dominique Foxworth Show. A

0:22

very special episode. We are joined

0:24

by an in-person guest, one of

0:26

my favorite people to read and

0:28

listen to, Derek Thompson of

0:30

the Plain English Podcast, staff writer at

0:32

The Atlantic, writer of two books with

0:34

another on the way, I do believe.

0:37

Right? That is right. He also

0:39

talks about the most and writes about the

0:42

most important, significant things in our society all

0:44

the time, thinks about them. One of the

0:46

best thinkers I know. But

0:49

that's not what we're doing here today. What are

0:51

we doing here today? We're here to talk about sports. Oh,

0:53

good. Fun stuff. Stuff that

0:55

doesn't matter. We appreciate you joining. I'm so happy

0:58

to be here. Thank you for that beautiful introduction.

1:00

Oh, yeah. It's all true. As we just

1:02

talked about, I wouldn't lie to you. That's right. I like to keep

1:04

it real with people. That's how they know that I really care about

1:06

them. All right. So before we get into,

1:08

I sent you an email

1:10

with a ton of really interesting to

1:12

me big picture topics. We'll get to

1:14

those. But first, we got to establish

1:17

your sports bona fides. All right. Let's

1:19

do it. Favorite athlete of all time. Well,

1:22

look, I got into baseball in the mid-1990s. And

1:25

my favorite team, because my uncle lived in

1:28

New York, was the New York Yankees. And

1:30

there was this rookie who

1:32

shared my first name, Eric

1:34

Jeter. So I would say

1:36

that I probably cared more for Derek Jeter in

1:39

the late 1990s, early 2000s than I've ever cared

1:42

about any other athlete. But most recently, I

1:44

would say Peyton Manning is probably my favorite

1:47

athlete. That's recent. Peyton Manning? OK. Yeah.

1:49

I'm still holding on to the always here. I feel

1:52

like you age out of having an all-time favorite athlete.

1:54

So it has to be from an era when you're

1:56

younger. You're younger. You cared a lot more about it.

1:58

So Peyton Manning is the interest. choice

2:00

because while I don't

2:03

think the stats will tell you

2:05

this or history will tell you this, I

2:08

believe he's the best quarterback of all time. I

2:11

know he's not the greatest quarterback of all

2:13

time like seven Super Bowls and Tom Brady

2:15

is apparently coming back for the 49ers but

2:17

I personally having played against both of them

2:19

and having watched a lot of football and

2:21

Charlie and I've had this discussion before that

2:24

Peyton Manning was kind of the turning point

2:26

for what a modern quarterback is, his ability

2:29

to understand the defense and make decisions at

2:31

the line and still like he wouldn't have

2:33

a great strong arm or he was very

2:35

accurate but all that together I

2:38

think Peyton at his peak and I know

2:40

playoff woes and all that at his peak

2:43

nobody was better than no one had more

2:45

command so I was upset about

2:47

Derek Teter because that's like a real kind

2:49

of... I know it's not

2:51

a cool answer look neither Peyton Manning nor Derek

2:53

Teter are very cool answers here when it comes

2:55

to favorite athlete. Can I ask you a question

2:57

though about Peyton Manning? Okay so obviously I've had

3:00

this debate with my friends my best friend is

3:02

a Tom Brady fan I was a Peyton Manning

3:04

fan I now say look Tom Brady's the goat

3:06

I'm no longer going to argue it give

3:09

me ammunition the next time that I

3:11

decide for whatever reason to have a

3:13

Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning and let's

3:15

be fair also versus Patrick Mahomes debate

3:18

what is the best piece of evidence that I

3:20

can use to say look my friend Dominique told

3:22

me he's played against the two arguable goats in

3:25

the early 2000s. Did your friend play? He

3:30

did not play. But when he says what did

3:32

Dominique what do you find out what did you

3:34

see on the field that we can't see when

3:36

we're looking on the couch what what makes him

3:38

the best? So I would say that the

3:40

surrounding cast and I think this actually is

3:42

gonna dovetail well into one of the types

3:44

that I think is hugely important is because

3:46

I think the difference is everything around everyone

3:49

else and Patrick Mahomes

3:51

everything around him has been pretty

3:54

damn great and everything around Tom Brady

3:57

when he's had success has been pretty

3:59

damn great. Great. Peyton Manning, we

4:01

dropped him into a pretty

4:04

bad organization with ownership that had some

4:06

tough questions, with a history of an

4:08

organization that hasn't been successful without a

4:10

ton of talent. He struggled a little

4:12

bit at first, but he developed the

4:15

offense to a way, along with the

4:17

coaching staff and along with the players

4:19

that they brought in. He developed the

4:21

offense to a degree that allowed everyone

4:23

else to then copy and mimic and

4:26

build on that. And I think everyone,

4:28

even like you, this is a

4:30

debate I stopped trying to have, because he

4:32

won seven Super Bowls. All right, you

4:34

guys win. And broke every record. And broke

4:36

every record. You guys win. Tom Brady's the

4:38

greatest of all time. But if you're talking

4:41

peak one moment at a time, anybody at

4:43

their best, if I could win

4:45

one game, I think it's Peyton

4:47

Manning. And part of it might also be

4:50

that other players built on

4:52

it and improved, but

4:54

he was like the forefather in the

4:56

same way that you could say like

4:58

Bill Russell's the greatest shot blocker of

5:00

all time, when yeah, he's not. He's

5:04

blocking guys like me and Derek. 6'8",

5:07

6'9". And so

5:09

I think some of that is part of the like, not

5:13

nostalgia, but like appreciation for how

5:15

difficult it is to be an

5:18

originator. But I do think the

5:20

best argument is when you break

5:22

down what Tom Brady, because obviously

5:24

he's the one who we look at, break down what

5:26

his career was, and you go through

5:28

all of his seasons, and you go through all the

5:31

success that he had. A lot of it

5:33

can be attributed to the

5:35

things that were around him. And not to

5:37

take away from him, he still did that

5:39

thing to the Falcons. That's true. And even

5:41

though you added Randy Moss to the roster,

5:44

he's still through those passes. And so it's

5:46

hard whenever you have these arguments or these

5:48

conversations, because it feels like you're like talking

5:50

to the other guy. Like, no,

5:52

he's great too. But if you're looking

5:54

for level

5:57

of difficulty, I

5:59

think that. Peyton Manning and that that's the

6:01

argument. So clip that and send that to that

6:03

jerk great I'm ready to do

6:05

it and this is gonna get into I

6:07

think we're gonna talk about because what you're

6:10

essentially saying is Even though it's very very

6:12

difficult to evaluate quarterbacks independently because the quarterback

6:14

is an interdependent position If

6:16

we try to evaluate them independently

6:18

Peyton Manning, maybe is the greater

6:20

quarterback mind the greater quarterback talent

6:22

than Tom Brady was Independently Tom

6:24

Brady depended on the Tampa Bay

6:26

isn't a great team He depended

6:28

on the genius of Belichick and

6:30

that organization for a long time But maybe if

6:33

we try to see this is a very hard

6:35

thing to do try to see the independent talent

6:37

within the interdependent network It's it's all right. We're

6:39

gonna stop teasing where we get into I'll let

6:41

Charlie set it up in a second But I

6:44

think it's not that hard to do honestly I

6:46

mean, I think it's very difficult to do but

6:48

in this situation is you can look at what

6:50

was happening For those

6:52

teams like we know Tom Brady's first Super

6:54

Bowl the game winning drive was good But

6:57

we know how they got there and we know

6:59

how that game developed and we know like

7:01

how he ended up there We know how

7:04

the subsequent seasons went and we saw

7:06

him mature mature into The

7:10

superstar all-time great quarterback, but he

7:12

wasn't that at first and Peyton

7:15

Manning had a slightly different Yeah,

7:17

all right, Charlie now You

7:20

can you can Peyton verse Brady as much as I want one

7:22

of my one of my hobby horses is He

7:25

revolutionized position a lot of Brady staffs there

7:27

because he started playing away that Peyton

7:29

did go to the line See

7:32

the defense eviscerate it Yeah,

7:34

I haven't played against Peyton This

7:36

is the thing that stood out to me and

7:38

this is partially part of the biases I played

7:41

against them at Peyton was at

7:43

his peak and Tom was a Member

7:45

of the system and we were able to beat Tom a couple

7:48

times never beat Peyton Even when I played

7:50

in Baltimore, we held them that I think 13

7:52

points. They still won, but the thing that was

7:55

Infuriating and it might also

7:57

be just what you value

7:59

and what you find more impressive, but

8:02

what was infuriating about Peyton Manning was

8:04

he had this ability to know what

8:06

you were in and he would study

8:08

the film to a point where if

8:10

one defensive tackle was one

8:13

step out of place, he would

8:15

understand that that meant that this linebacker's responsibility

8:18

was this, which means that this safety responsibility

8:20

is this, which means that despite the fact

8:22

that this corner is in a squat technique,

8:24

I know he's in cover three and I'm

8:26

like, oh, I got you now Peyton, I'm

8:28

going to trap you into this past. Nope,

8:31

it didn't work. And when we had success

8:33

with him, it was because we would say,

8:36

all right, Peyton's going to see this and

8:38

know that that means this because it means

8:40

that it means this. So we know that

8:42

he thinks this and then we'll get an

8:44

interception. I think a lot of

8:46

people like to bring up where Bill

8:49

Belichick called Ed Reed the greatest safety ever because

8:51

of play that he made. And I was on

8:54

the field at play and I remember clearly that

8:56

that's what happened. They ran a comeback to Reggie

8:59

Wayne and they hurried it up. And

9:02

we, when that normally happens, we check for because we don't

9:04

have a chance. We go to our base teams, we check

9:06

for. So we looked at each other. All

9:08

right. Peyton knows that he got us and the

9:10

defense he wants. Hurry up, check for. He thinks

9:12

we're checking for. They put a

9:14

formation that we would check to it. So

9:16

we start pretending we're checking to a squat on

9:19

the comeback. Ed gets the interception. I'm like, that

9:22

took like insane

9:24

amount of coordination to make this

9:26

happen. And that's also where I'm

9:28

like, never happened before.

9:30

Like I haven't had that. And maybe Tom

9:33

Brady's advanced to that level, but I just

9:35

didn't see it. All right. Okay.

9:38

We'll do it. So this is a good point

9:40

to pivot because we're going to talk about or

9:42

lead with the quarterbacks in this upcoming NFL draft,

9:45

Caleb Williams. Some people think the best

9:47

prospect since Peyton Manning or

9:49

better since John Elway or since Andrew lock, however

9:52

you want to view it. He's seen as a slam

9:54

dunk prospect. There's also Drake

9:56

may there's also Jayden Daniels, friend

9:59

of the. program Nate Tice evaluates

10:01

all three of those guys, and

10:04

then they could be at the top of any draft class. There's

10:07

a good chance that one,

10:10

two, maybe even all three of

10:12

those quarterbacks could suck. We

10:15

don't know if it's because of

10:17

the way we evaluate quarterbacks, if it's because of the

10:20

situation they're being put into, if it's

10:22

because of an innate talent that we don't get to

10:24

see at the college level, that's just not there. But

10:26

the question I wanna ask for you guys

10:29

is, why do you think it is so

10:31

hard to scout quarterbacks and draft quarterbacks and

10:33

develop quarterbacks? And what are we doing

10:35

wrong? How are we looking at this that's incorrect? I

10:37

could start, it's not a new theory for you, but people

10:40

who are listeners might have heard me

10:42

point this out before, is I

10:45

believe that it's not about the quarterback, it's

10:48

about the situation. And if you

10:50

look at all the best quarterbacks in

10:52

football now, it's not a coincidence that

10:54

they all came into good situations. If

10:56

you look at all the best quarterbacks

10:58

through since Cam Newton, which is when

11:00

the draft compensation changed, if you look

11:02

at that, and you could probably go

11:04

back further than that, to even like

11:06

all time great quarterbacks. All

11:08

the quarterbacks that we think of as

11:10

great, like they have come into really

11:13

good situations. And my theory

11:15

is, any quarterback that's drafted in

11:17

the first round, and honestly, almost any quarterback

11:19

that's drafted into the NFL, they

11:22

have the talent to have success. But

11:24

the reason why they don't have

11:26

success is because there are so

11:28

many different variables in the game

11:30

that they can't control for. And

11:32

I think more than anything, the

11:34

quarterbacks need time and

11:36

experience. And in order to have the time

11:39

and experience to add new things to their

11:41

game, and this is the Tom Brady is

11:43

the perfect example of this. Tom Brady wasn't

11:46

special. That's why he was drafted as

11:48

late as he was. And that's why

11:50

we see that milk body combine picture

11:52

all the time. And Tom Brady,

11:54

I think would even suggest that

11:56

he was not like a special

11:58

standout. We all

12:01

saw but he was in

12:03

a situation He was smart enough and he was

12:05

in a situation where they didn't ask a lot

12:07

of them early on and they supported him and

12:09

he Was able to develop and add more and

12:11

more things to his game I can go down

12:14

the list of all the quarterbacks that Prescott fits

12:16

that perfectly Russell Wilson though He's not good right

12:18

now. He was the same thing in that situation

12:20

I would even say Patrick Mahomes even though he

12:22

came in great that team That's

12:25

the best situation. 13 and 3

12:27

before he showed up Lamar Jackson

12:29

Josh Allen came on to a

12:32

playoff team like these are all guys and

12:34

Josh Allen struggled more and the dicks showed up

12:36

He got better, but this is not I think

12:38

Joe Burrow and I guess Last

12:41

year the only time where we've seen guys

12:44

Rob the CJ Stroud dropped into situations

12:46

that we all believed were bad and

12:48

then them showing up the next year

12:50

The team is good. I think there's a

12:52

great point. I have a couple points that I want to make First

12:55

I am just so interested in the question of

12:58

potential and I think it's so interesting how interested

13:00

we all are in the question of potential like

13:02

a Possible trade is always

13:04

more interesting than the team that

13:06

already exists The next greatest quarterback

13:08

is more interesting than the current

13:11

greatest quarterback Whoever's going like figuring

13:13

out who's going to be the next LeBron

13:15

James the next Michael Jordan the next Patrick

13:17

Mahomes is More interesting than the

13:19

fact of LeBron James the fact of Patrick Mahomes

13:22

So I always find conversations

13:24

about potential to be inherently interesting and

13:27

I think that because they're inherently interesting We

13:29

probably don't understand potential nearly as well as

13:31

we pretend to understand potential and I

13:33

would say this is definitely true of NFL

13:36

Draftrooms like since as you said the

13:38

rookie salary schedule reset teams reasonably now

13:41

see the first round Quarterbacks are

13:43

a relative steal It's an incredibly important position and

13:45

you don't have to pay them as much as

13:47

you used to have to pay them and now

13:49

you have A bunch of quarterbacks that come off

13:52

the map immediately first pick second pick third pick

13:54

is probably what's gonna happen this year with Caleb

13:56

Daniels and may who knows maybe JJ McCarthy's gonna

13:58

be the fourth pick It could be four in a

14:01

row, which I'm not sure that's ever happened before. But

14:03

also, this interest and this game we

14:06

play in ourselves that we can predict

14:08

the future exists in tension with the

14:10

fact that quarterbacking is so interesting because

14:12

it is simultaneously the most

14:15

important position in sports, so they say, and

14:17

the most interdependent position in sports. Quarterbacks

14:20

do not call their own plays unless you're Peyton Manning, unless

14:22

you're a couple other players, I suppose. They mostly don't

14:25

call their own plays. They certainly don't block for themselves.

14:27

They don't catch their own passes. And

14:29

unless you're Lamar Jackson and you're responsible for essentially

14:31

70% of your teams like

14:33

running game, you're probably not responsible

14:35

for the entirety of the play in which you're

14:38

calling yourself. So it's an incredibly interdependent position. And

14:40

what makes it so hard, I think, is that you

14:42

are essentially taking an interdependent part from a college team

14:45

and then saying, okay, we're going to take away your

14:47

college offensive line. We're going to take away your college

14:49

coach. We're going to take away your college-wide receivers.

14:51

We're going to take away the entire context

14:53

that may have explained your success. And

14:56

then we're going to drop you in an entirely different

14:58

context and see how you behave with that. It's

15:01

a little bit like a plant that grows beautifully in Malaysia.

15:03

And you're like, let's see how this does in Oklahoma. Who

15:06

the hell knows? And the other factor that's

15:08

changing that I'm sure we'll get to is

15:10

take away the college defense. Yes.

15:13

And that matters. But I think

15:16

this bolsters the point that I'm

15:18

trying to make is that football

15:21

is an incredibly complex

15:24

game. And I

15:26

think our response, and I know

15:28

that this is going to sound silly, but

15:30

I think our response to the rookie wage

15:33

scale changing was the wrong one. The

15:35

response that we've gotten is we should

15:37

draft more quarterbacks because they're the most

15:40

important position in their cheap. And

15:42

we've seen teams have a lot of success when

15:45

they have a young, cheap quarterback. But I don't

15:47

think that's the lesson. I think

15:49

the lesson is we should

15:51

not necessarily depend so much on trying

15:53

to nail this quarterback because I think

15:55

that if the roster is fine or

15:57

if you get the roster right. You

15:59

get the coaches right, you get the

16:01

situation right, then the quarterback comes

16:04

in and turns into the quarterback that you want.

16:06

That's what we've seen happen more than anything else.

16:08

That's what we saw with Aaron Rodgers. That's what

16:11

we're seeing again with Jordan Love. That's

16:13

what we've seen happen. I was

16:15

going to say, imagine a team

16:17

that had all-stars up and

16:20

down the defense, some of the

16:22

most extraordinary weapons at wide receiver

16:24

in the NFL, the best running

16:26

backs, some of the most talented

16:28

offensive linemen, you could throw almost

16:30

anybody back there. Almost anyone. Right,

16:33

almost anyone except for the third pick in that draft. It's

16:37

interesting because I remember having this conversation with

16:40

Danny Heifetz, the host of the Ringer

16:42

and Fantasy podcast. Oh, yeah. Love

16:44

that. Shout out. What

16:46

if right now we're trying to explain away Brock Purdy.

16:49

We're trying to excuse his

16:51

record. Look, maybe he's brilliant.

16:54

We're not going to resolve that question the next 15 minutes. What

16:58

I asked him was, what if we saw what

17:00

the 49ers were doing as the future? Is

17:03

that a model you could use? Tell

17:05

me if I'm wrong, Dominique. It sounds like what you're

17:07

saying is, if a team

17:10

truly embraced the 49ers model, they

17:12

wouldn't spend their first round, second round,

17:14

third round pick necessarily in the quarterback.

17:16

What they would think is, we need

17:18

a guy who's smart enough to understand

17:21

our offense. If we put

17:23

him in a brilliant, perfect offense

17:25

surrounded by expensive weapons,

17:27

then we'll have a team that can

17:30

make it to the Super Bowl. What's

17:32

hard about that, and I'm really interested

17:34

to hear if you guys think that

17:36

the Brock Purdy model is replicable across

17:38

the NFL, what seems difficult is eventually

17:41

your guys under center in the

17:43

Super Bowl, if you're lucky. He has

17:45

to do something. He can't be ordinary if

17:47

he's going up against Patrick Mahomes. He has

17:49

to be extraordinary. Maybe

17:51

it's tough if you're going to purposefully

17:53

underinvest in what is still a really

17:55

important position. How does the Brock Purdy

17:57

model scale? is

18:00

fascinating about this question. It's something I

18:02

brought up to Dominique before we did the show. If

18:04

you were to just take the names and their

18:07

college careers off of them, physically,

18:09

the tools that they have and

18:11

the amount of stars they had in college,

18:13

there's not actually that much separating someone

18:15

like Brock Brody from someone like Bryce Young, who was the

18:18

first pick versus the last pick in the draft. And

18:20

the quarterback position, I think, is the only position

18:22

that's forced us like that. You can't imagine a

18:24

shooting guard having roughly the same physical skill set

18:27

that's picked first overall when he's like the marquee

18:29

guy, you know, he's gonna be an NBA All-Star

18:31

with someone who goes undrafted or is the 199th

18:33

prospect of the draft. And to me, that makes

18:36

it the most like something that's really interesting about

18:38

building through a quarterback later is, are

18:42

we looking for the right tools? Are those things

18:44

that we can find later in draft to fit

18:46

systems? Yeah, so I think

18:48

you're exactly right almost. Okay. And

18:51

I think the 49ers

18:54

don't even believe the 49ers model as evidenced

18:57

by them trading away all the draft picks

18:59

to move up to get straight away. And

19:01

I think that that doesn't

19:03

mean they're right. I think that

19:05

the only thing that I would tweak about

19:07

what you're saying is I wouldn't

19:10

necessarily look for a quarterback that fits

19:12

my system. I think what is more

19:14

important is a smart, flexible coach, a

19:18

lot of smart, flexible talented players

19:20

around them. And then you go

19:23

get the best quarterback you can find

19:26

given that situation given the situation

19:28

you're in. And then the scheme

19:30

that you present adapts to what

19:32

the quarterback you get does. Like,

19:34

and I, if I feel

19:37

like when there's something so

19:39

obvious after you realize it, you feel

19:41

dumb, like that's how this feels to

19:43

me when we're talking about this, because

19:45

we have seen this work and the

19:48

49ers are a place where we've seen it work.

19:50

And maybe that with

19:52

RG3 here, Kyle Shanahan ran a different

19:54

system. You find a system that works

19:56

for your guy and it seems that

19:59

the other strategy is gambling.

20:01

Like the other strategy is

20:03

we're going to keep drafting

20:05

somebody until we find Patrick

20:07

Mahomes when in actuality we

20:10

have Patrick Mahomes in part because

20:12

he landed with Andy Reid, Tyreke

20:14

Hill, Travis Kelsey, like

20:16

in that situation. So I think that the

20:18

smarter way to go about this is not

20:20

what David Tepper did last year where it's

20:22

like you know what we got an okay

20:25

team let's go get the best quarterback out

20:27

there. I think that no matter who

20:29

that quarterback is like we can go to

20:31

a bunch of averages slightly

20:33

above average quarterbacks. I think Jared

20:35

Goff perfect example super

20:38

toolsie quarterback awful got

20:40

a good coach in good enough

20:43

can't win a Super Bowl send

20:45

him away mediocre surrounded with talent

20:47

pretty damn good to

20:50

awful get him a good coach some

20:52

great receivers all right pretty damn good

20:54

like I don't know how many times

20:56

we have to see this this isn't

20:58

this work out until someone looks up

21:01

and says you're not going to like

21:03

the Giants are a team that's considering

21:05

drafting quarterback so that they can go

21:07

ahead and ruin this quarterback like they

21:09

did Daniel Jones stop it has two

21:11

questions I love the sign of thinking okay

21:14

question number one Jalen Hurts another

21:16

example am I right

21:18

sorry in summarizing your view as

21:21

there are a handful of true

21:23

quarterbacking geniuses Peyton Manning's exist in

21:25

the world but the vast majority

21:27

of quarterbacks exist in this sort

21:29

of big hump

21:32

of normality in the middle there's just

21:34

a bunch of like B

21:37

minus C plus quarterbacks that exist

21:39

and whose success is exquisitely sensitive

21:41

to their surrounding talent and we

21:44

should draft quarterbacks with that understanding

21:46

is that your your thesis here

21:48

absolutely okay understand that thesis how

21:51

does that change drafting strategy yeah

21:53

you're the Bears yes you're the

21:55

commanders Caleb is on the

21:57

board Drake may is on the board are you saying

22:00

Screw that, I'm going from Marvin Harrison Jr. I'm

22:02

getting a left tackle. Where

22:04

does that, how does it change drafting

22:06

strategy to basically assume the vast majority

22:09

of quarterbacks are interchangeable parts? The Bears

22:11

did it right. The Bears

22:13

are ready for a quarterback. The Bears

22:15

have receivers and extra draft picks and

22:18

tackles and a defense that was getting

22:20

better. Like what Ryan Pace has done

22:22

there is the opposite of what the

22:24

Bears have done for their entire quarterback

22:27

trash history. So like that is doing

22:29

it right. The trade was

22:32

fortunate that they ended up with a number one

22:35

pick, but I would have guessed that if they

22:37

ended up with a top five, top 10, 15

22:39

pick, whoever they got

22:41

would have been okay. Or a free agent quarterback they

22:43

would have brought in would have done well in that

22:45

situation. My point is, just because

22:48

you're there, don't draft the guy

22:50

unless he happens, unless you believe

22:52

that he is a Peyton

22:55

Manning. Otherwise don't trade back

22:57

or get Marvin Harrison. Build

22:59

a roster that is ready

23:01

for a quarterback. Find coaches

23:03

that are flexible and smart.

23:05

I think that there

23:07

are many different paths

23:09

to success. And I

23:11

think it's absurd that we are ignoring

23:14

the one that I think is most

23:18

consistently replicable because we've convinced

23:20

ourselves that something else is

23:22

happening that's not happening. We've

23:24

convinced ourselves that the teams

23:26

who do draft successful quarterbacks

23:28

have found these special, special

23:30

quarterbacks. I don't think so.

23:32

I think the teams that

23:34

have had success have

23:36

found quarterbacks that are good,

23:40

but Have come into really great

23:42

situations. Tough because Patrick Mahomes won the

23:44

last two Super Bowls. Of Course he

23:46

is in a great situation. Patrick Mahomes

23:48

does not break the rule. The Court

23:50

of Effect breaks the rule. If Eddie

23:52

J. Stroud breaks the rule, I think

23:54

Joe Burrow, when he's healthy, breaks the

23:56

rule, I think Peyton Manning breaks the

23:58

rule. I think. Nobody else

24:00

really breaks the rules zone. There's.

24:03

Some. Interesting stuff here. One. I

24:06

think these this rule was sort of made. In.

24:09

The eighties and there's. Articles.

24:11

And data that subs that supports

24:13

that like scouting quarterbacks is almost.

24:15

Easier than the guys are taking the top.

24:17

The draft generally are more successful, and in

24:20

the last decade that's become less unless you're

24:22

in there. Probably a number of reasons for

24:24

that innovation trickles up and from costs about

24:26

the Nfl. The offices are so far ahead

24:28

of defenses where you know this mysterious defenses

24:30

are. Much. More complex than the

24:33

Nfl so geyser play a different sport. And

24:36

the quarterback position cents worth The way they

24:38

throw the ball. More and more and more

24:40

it's become. An. Even more precise

24:42

positions. But what I'm wondering as I look at

24:45

some of the best quarterbacks nfl I look at

24:47

them. one of the through lines actually job or

24:49

of he sort of in this with his. Can.

24:52

Be removed. You. Again, Josh

24:54

Allen, Patrick My home's ah.

24:58

Lamar. Jackson, Just and herbert. These guys

25:00

are all incredibly to the quarterbacks and that's

25:02

almost like think he should be looking at

25:04

for this. You. Don't wanna hit

25:07

the double? Yeah, you can hit the double with the

25:09

draft pick. You. But if you're drafting

25:11

of top of the draft you have to try

25:13

and find the home run that's on the mistakes.

25:15

that like if you look at the Bright Young

25:17

received a shroud you had these devaluers really see

25:19

distraught throws the ball better. But Bright Young has

25:21

these intangibles. It's almost like do you want to

25:23

raise your risk profile is something I think you

25:25

believe. Which. I believe to it's for

25:28

a long time the development of quarterbacks in who

25:30

was going to be good. Was.

25:32

Dictated by what happens before they get to the

25:34

Nfl. Now. I think what's

25:37

more important of quarterbacks success is their development

25:39

once they're in the league in so what

25:41

you're looking for has to change. If that's

25:43

the case, I was this a that there's

25:45

there's one other ingredients I want to throw

25:47

in here. Sometimes when I'm procrastinating on work

25:49

a good at that pro Football reference.com and

25:52

just play around with statistics and. I.

25:54

sound this i wonder what you think of

25:56

it because i do think that it's very

25:58

germane your conversation yards per completion or

26:01

yards per reception are at an all-time low.

26:04

Passes are getting much shorter and at the same time

26:07

completion rates are getting higher. The six

26:09

years NFL history when average completion percentage was over 63%

26:11

were the last six years.

26:15

In 2003, the number of quarterbacks in the NFL with a completion

26:17

percentage over 65% was two. Last

26:20

year it was 16. At the same

26:22

time, the workhorse running back position

26:24

has died out. In 2003, there were 12

26:27

running backs with 20 attempts per game. Last

26:29

year, there were zero. NFL

26:32

offenses have changed a lot in the

26:34

last 20 years. The workhorse running back

26:37

is gone and the new workhorse is

26:39

the quarterback himself. Often he's

26:41

relied on to run, often he's relied on to

26:43

break play in case someone breaks through the line.

26:47

The passing game is not reliant on maybe

26:49

the 2006 era Peyton Manning 15-yard passes. It's

26:53

a lot of six, seven, eight-yard passes

26:56

with extremely high expectation of completion. What

26:59

we expect of a quarterback has

27:01

changed so much. It's

27:03

about like very quickly reading defenses

27:06

and making really, really simple passes

27:08

with really exquisite timing. I wonder

27:10

if that changes the calculus here

27:13

too because if

27:15

college is going to be a bunch of

27:18

really creative offensive minds and

27:20

in the NFL, it's going to be much more sophisticated

27:23

defenses that you have to just pick apart and go

27:25

first down, first down, first down as you matriculate

27:27

the ball down the field. I think that also

27:30

changes what you're looking for in a quarterback as

27:32

well, doesn't it? I think the reason

27:34

why they had a higher hit rate for

27:36

quarterbacks in the 90s and 80s is because

27:38

of what you're saying there is the

27:40

workhorse running back. The offense was different.

27:44

The expectation for the quarterback was

27:47

to attack a single

27:49

high defense, which is what you are likely going

27:51

to see deeper down the field. We need you

27:53

to have a strong arm and be accurate. You're

27:55

not going to have to really read the defense

27:58

because the strength of our offense and we... see

28:00

that data supported through like

28:02

the history of MVPs like the strength

28:04

of our offense is running the ball

28:06

and then we see because there are

28:08

like bigger talent disparities in college we

28:10

see offensive evolution. You don't have the

28:12

offensive lineman that's really what it boils

28:15

down to. You can find

28:17

athletes like six foot guys who

28:19

weigh 200 pounds who are really quick

28:21

and really fast and can catch like they're not

28:23

everywhere but there are a lot more than six

28:25

five guys who are 330 and

28:28

can move their feet. So like you go from school

28:30

to school they have to find ways

28:32

to compete when they are outmatched and

28:34

they develop offensive evolution that allow them

28:36

to compete and then we in the

28:38

NFL see it and like alright we'll

28:40

take this offensive evolution and implement it

28:43

because it works but I don't think

28:45

that they recognize what they need is

28:47

different and what they need

28:49

is I think more difficult to

28:51

find and that is I think

28:53

goes back to the original point

28:55

is like stop trying to find

28:57

an impossible thing and find put

28:59

together the most perfect machine that you

29:01

can and then the driver of it you

29:04

put him in there and don't let him mess up

29:06

and eventually he's gonna have to take like it's inevitable

29:08

he's going to have to at some point and

29:11

you'll find out eventually is he that guy

29:13

is he special I feel like this is

29:15

the I get into these ridiculous

29:18

Dak Prescott arguments on first take all

29:20

the time but like Dak Prescott

29:22

kind of exists at that line he's like at the

29:24

very top end of that line where we're like are

29:27

we sure he can actually do

29:29

that special thing and so when

29:31

people say no the question is

29:35

would you rather be one of these other teams with

29:37

their other quarterback and so that to me is and

29:40

the answer is maybe and no

29:42

I don't think it is but go ahead what house

29:44

it I don't think it's because it would you rather

29:46

be searching for the thing that can push you over

29:48

the line every stuck sort of knowing you're not there

29:50

the thing that can push you over the line doesn't

29:52

exist at the point that I've been trying to make

29:54

the whole time is like no but there are the

29:56

few people in each generation yeah so you're gonna live

29:58

and die 80 years and

30:00

never, there's a few people in each generation. I was

30:02

gonna say, I think, Dominique, I think, I

30:04

think anybody, or most people in

30:06

a front office, listening to this conversation are

30:09

gonna say, you know what, I

30:11

understand the point you're making, I understand the

30:13

vast majority of quarterbacks, even the NFL, are

30:15

basically in this B minus C plus lump,

30:17

and therefore the best strategy for them is

30:19

not find the person, then build a car

30:21

around them, it's build the car and then

30:23

hire the driver, like that's the strategy you're

30:25

putting out, but they're still gonna tell themselves,

30:28

who wins Super Bowls? Patrick

30:30

Mahomes wins Super Bowls, Tom Brady wins Super Bowls, Peyton

30:33

Manning, I guess, won one and his defense won

30:35

another. We don't give him credit for that. I'm

30:38

sure they're not gonna try, but

30:40

they're gonna tell themselves, those special

30:43

flowers exist and

30:45

I'm going to find them. They're still going to

30:47

lie to themselves and tell themselves that because they

30:49

have to justify their jobs, and their jobs aren't

30:51

gonna be preserved by saying, look, I'm

30:54

not that good at my job, I'm not that good at

30:56

finding the next Patrick Mahomes, I can't do it, so we

30:58

just have to rely on the fact that I'm gonna find

31:00

a B minus quarterback and we have to build a car

31:02

around them. As long as they agree, to be honest, and

31:04

say that they're lying, and I don't think it's them

31:06

saying that they're not that good at their job because

31:08

that is how you find the next Patrick Mahomes. Nothing

31:11

that has been said so far has, even

31:14

the hypotheticals don't undercut the point that I'm

31:16

making. I'm still saying that you

31:19

need this situation in order for Patrick

31:21

Mahomes to become Patrick Mahomes, and I

31:23

think you're right. I think that they

31:25

don't know. You don't know if that

31:27

guy has that until we are in

31:29

those moments. Yeah. You're saying Patrick

31:31

Mahomes wasn't discovered in college. He

31:33

was created on the Kansas City Chiefs.

31:36

In part, yes, and so the question

31:38

I'm asking is if, let's

31:41

say, and Patrick Mahomes wasn't the number

31:43

one overall pick, so stop acting like

31:46

we know what we're doing here. If

31:49

the only time, it's like John Elway, Peyton

31:52

Manning, Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck. Well, that's

31:54

what's so exciting about Caleb because he's

31:56

seen the Kalemarian version. Caleb Williams is

31:59

fine. in all the

32:01

history of football these are the only

32:03

times where we were like this is

32:05

a can't miss prospect and then they

32:07

actually came in so let's stop pretending

32:09

well so understand there's some interesting things

32:12

like one on the Mahomes piece he

32:14

was drafted in the Mitch Trevisi draft for Trevisi

32:16

I think was the second pick there's

32:20

pretty objective data that

32:22

a first overall pick quarterback compared to the

32:24

first quarterback taken when they're not the first

32:26

overall pick has a higher chance of success

32:29

because it's just the position is so valuable

32:31

that if there's not a guy taking first

32:33

overall they don't that evaluators don't think anything's

32:35

any was good Mahomes his

32:37

quotes about his mindset in college that he had

32:39

to raise his risk profile and throw more interceptions

32:42

because he knew his defense was gonna allow 70

32:44

points a game or 60 points a game or

32:46

whatever that Texas Tech team did probably

32:49

is the reason why he was under drafted

32:51

despite his traits and the other thing about

32:53

it with Mahomes in particular about your situation

32:56

thing we actually sort of

32:58

saw the counter example the last two years

33:00

they stripped away everything that made the situation

33:02

great and he was still great enough to

33:04

lead to raise everything and that happened with

33:06

I don't understand why you can't understand no

33:08

no I'm just saying it like it works

33:10

on both sides like that's why you try

33:12

and hit the home run you find the

33:14

guy uniquely talented because when the situation isn't

33:16

perfect which it's never gonna be in the

33:18

NFL because everyone gets hurt he was someone

33:20

who's a floor raiser and I get your

33:22

point he was the test pick on to

33:24

a team that was 13 and 3 so

33:26

that's not the example that I'm arguing yeah

33:31

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fit my example

33:33

yeah and him having success

33:35

now is just an another example of

33:37

Tom Brady it's exactly what my point

33:39

is is you get a guy into

33:42

a situation that is good and you

33:44

allow him it's the opposite of David

33:46

Carr it's don't ruin him

33:49

early and allow him to develop don't

33:51

get him sacked 300 times allow him

33:53

to develop into the best version of

33:55

himself quarterbacks are

33:57

hot house flowers get them

33:59

in there and protect them and let them

34:01

become the players that you want them, the

34:04

best versions of themselves by building a

34:06

system that works for them and then

34:08

every offseason like a basketball player they

34:11

can add something else to their game

34:13

because they're not running for their lives.

34:15

Like you're not going to convince me

34:17

that Ben Roethlisberger was some like awesome

34:20

special quarterback. Bill Roethlisberger came and

34:22

beat me my rookie year in

34:24

Denver in an AFC championship game.

34:26

I was there. He was giving

34:28

me work not because he was

34:30

great because that team was really

34:32

good and he got into a

34:34

good situation. Eli

34:36

Manning and the Giants not as good. He

34:39

wasn't as great. Phillip

34:41

Rivers in San

34:43

Diego they had a lot of talent.

34:46

This is over and over again

34:48

the same thing is happening but because

34:50

we are so obsessed with quarterbacks we

34:52

convince ourselves that it's because the quarterbacks

34:54

are special and not because the situations

34:56

are special that allow the quarterbacks to

34:58

become special. I agree with that. I

35:01

agree with the idea that great

35:03

systems are more responsible for producing great

35:05

quarterbacks than great scouting. The

35:07

great system just matters more than the quality of

35:10

the scouting. I think that sometimes we lie to

35:12

ourselves because we think oh because scouting the next

35:14

Patrick Mahomes is important and it is if that

35:17

formula existed it would people pay a trillion

35:19

dollars for it but we lie to ourselves

35:21

because we say because it's important

35:23

to find the next Patrick Mahomes it's

35:25

possible. So important

35:28

that it has to be possible. My

35:30

very job depends on it being possible.

35:32

It's like no you have to be

35:34

much more humble about the ability to predict

35:37

taking what you said an orchid out

35:39

of one environment trying to plant it another where

35:41

it might not grow or it might grow much

35:43

better. The system matters more than the scouting. I

35:45

agree with that. If you go grab an orchid

35:47

and you want to make it grow in Oklahoma

35:50

then you got to have some nice

35:52

sun lamps. You got to have a nice

35:54

irrigation system for year one. Maybe

35:56

you can take one away for year two. Maybe

35:59

you can take the other one away. away for year

36:01

three. Maybe by year four that thing is blooming all

36:03

on its own and you can make

36:06

other shortcuts. I don't know the first thing about

36:08

Orchis. I don't know why I made a flower

36:10

metaphor. I like that was very persuasive. Yeah. So

36:12

Charlie's so mad. No, no, no. Right. No, before

36:14

we move on, I still think traits matter. I

36:16

still think the talent. Okay. But my, my, I

36:18

do have one other question. Traits don't matter. Well,

36:20

this is something that's really interesting now because we've

36:22

now seen it with Jordan Love. We saw with

36:24

Rogers, we saw with Mahomes, there

36:27

is something that is

36:29

in conflict here. The value of the rookie contract

36:31

and the fact that the most

36:34

important thing is to develop your quarterback. Do

36:36

you think it's sort of wrong how people are handling

36:38

this? Would it be better if the

36:40

only real important thing in the rookie contract is

36:42

to develop someone who can be a franchise quarterback?

36:45

Are we doing this wrong? Are we actually

36:47

valuing the rookie contract in the wrong way?

36:49

Absolutely. I think this is not any different

36:52

than baseball figuring out money

36:54

ball and basketball figuring out the three

36:56

point shot. I think this is the

36:58

same thing happening in football. I can't

37:00

wait for 10 years from now when

37:02

everyone can come back to this podcast

37:04

and say, see, Dominique told you that

37:06

you guys were focused on the wrong

37:08

thing. I think it seems pretty obvious

37:10

to me based on the examples that

37:12

we have out here. And because football,

37:14

as we started with this, is

37:16

about the complexity of football and how difficult

37:19

it makes to predict certain things, I think

37:21

it's easy to obscure what's important. And that

37:23

position is so important that we want to

37:26

say that that person is the special

37:29

thing. When actually, I think protecting the

37:31

special thing is the important thing. Nurturing

37:33

the special thing, nature versus nurture, I

37:35

just figured that out too. We got

37:37

it all solved. You can end your

37:40

podcast, end your column. All your big

37:42

questions have been figured out by me

37:44

today in my quarterback It's

37:46

just fascinating because there used to be a

37:49

huge correlation between college starts and NFL success.

37:51

And we're now like, if this is true,

37:53

we're going to put down. Yeah, that up

37:55

until about 10 years

37:57

ago, you could draw a line between. between

38:00

the guys who had started three or four years of

38:02

college football and who had success on a five career.

38:04

So I think that's gonna change vastly as situation

38:06

continues to matter more and more and they're

38:08

more interchangeable quarterbacks. I love it.

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about the play of the week. The

39:50

pressure to follow up hypnotic and cognac

39:52

weighing heavy on the team. Hypnotic was

39:55

in the cup, blue and ready for

39:57

the play. And boom! On Yayote Kila.

40:00

came in with a smooth assist to

40:02

hypnotic's tropical fruit fish. Take

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it straight, pour, it

40:06

was green and BON!

40:09

The playmaking splash

40:11

shifted the tempo. Another great cocktail

40:13

from the hypnotic team. Every season

40:15

is hypnotic and tequila season. Hypnotic

40:17

liqueur parts down Kentucky 17% alcohol

40:20

by volume. Hypnotic reminds you to think wisely,

40:22

drink wisely. Got my first

40:24

win of the day. What's next Charlie? Should we pivot

40:27

to baseball? We're

40:29

going to talk a little Tommy John, but

40:31

first I do think we should talk about the Shohei Otani

40:33

story. This is a story that I know has fascinated all

40:35

three of us. Our

40:38

opinions on it have probably changed drastically from

40:40

the initial news dump that, oh

40:43

my God, Shohei and his interpreter were $4.5

40:45

million in gambling debt to the recent

40:49

DOJ report that was

40:52

actually $40.7 million in

40:54

debt. And E-pay, Shohei's

40:56

manager and translator might have been

40:58

the worst gambler of all time,

41:00

but the best con man of all time

41:03

where he had taken Shohei's

41:06

bank account over, had gotten all of

41:08

the alerts sent to his phone, was

41:10

impersonating Shohei Otani to his bookie. And

41:13

I don't really have a huge question about this, but

41:15

what do you guys think is most interesting about what

41:17

has gone on with Shohei Otani and his interpreter over

41:20

the last two weeks? When the

41:22

Shohei Otani news broke, I was so

41:24

ready to put my tinfoil hat on.

41:26

I was sure that Otani was in

41:28

on it. It just didn't make any

41:30

sense that an ordinary person making a

41:32

couple hundred thousand dollars a year could get $4, $10, $180

41:35

million in debt or at least have

41:40

a credit for $180 million with the

41:42

bookie. It made no sense. Obviously Shohei

41:45

Otani knew about this. He was betting.

41:47

I was so ready to believe that.

41:49

I do think that the DOJ report

41:51

that came out pretty conclusively proves that

41:55

this translator absolutely

41:57

ran Shohei's life. and

42:00

managed to – Bill Simmons compared

42:02

it to sort of like a talented Mr. Ripley situation

42:04

of being able to imperse to Shohei Otani. In

42:06

a way, much more sadly, it reminded me of almost like

42:10

a conservatorship, like someone pretending to

42:12

be an infirmed older person

42:14

and like lying to their family about what's

42:16

going on. I mean, I

42:18

was thinking there is no way

42:21

that Shohei Otani didn't know about

42:23

this. The guy would have had to literally

42:25

– his translator would have had to literally

42:27

impersonate him to both the bank and his

42:29

financial advisor. That's the only thing that could

42:32

possibly explain this. And the

42:34

DOJ report comes out and it's like, no,

42:36

Mizuhara literally impersonated Otani to both the bank

42:38

and the financial advisor. And the craziest thing

42:40

to me, like at this point, obviously,

42:43

it's an absurd heist, being

42:46

upset at Ipe is obvious. There's

42:48

no point in talking about that. The

42:50

party that I am most stunned by

42:52

is CAA, the

42:54

agency. The CAA, when

42:57

they got Otani as a client,

42:59

said they were going to surround

43:01

him with managers and with financial

43:03

advisors. It turns out – this

43:05

is mostly from All Street Journal reporting – they

43:07

did not talk to Shohei Otani at

43:09

all. They had no one

43:12

on their baseball team that even spoke

43:14

Japanese. So the only

43:16

point of contact was this

43:18

interpreter. And it's amazing to think that

43:20

they could be like sitting in a room being

43:22

like, hey, by the way, there's some

43:24

discrepancies that have showed up in your

43:26

checking account where the Los Angeles Angels

43:29

are depositing all of your checks. Anything

43:31

going on there? And Shohei Otani is

43:33

just like looking at the wall while

43:35

his interpreter is saying, oh, yeah, no.

43:38

Shohei Otani actually wants that to be totally private.

43:40

He has a bunch of things that he's buying

43:43

there. It mostly involves some offshore stuff. But I

43:45

assure you, it's all legal. Like please don't look

43:47

into it very closely with the DOJ or any

43:49

kind of financial advisor. I mean

43:51

it's just absurd and embarrassing for any

43:53

agency to have a $700 million man and

43:57

not have any ability to talk to him, which appears

43:59

to be the case. the case. They wanted

44:01

to be easy. Anything that would have been difficult, I

44:03

was like, oh, we got a guy, speaks great English,

44:05

he can handle us, we don't have to deal with

44:07

it. It seems pretty obvious to me how you could

44:10

end up there. You're right, someone else should have done

44:12

something in this process, but I want to push back

44:14

on something that Charlie said off the top, is that

44:16

Ipe was like a great con man. It

44:19

seems like a terrible con man. He

44:21

just happened to come up and get

44:23

some really... He did tax them. He

44:25

just came up and get some really

44:27

terrible con defense, because a good con

44:29

man would have just stole $140

44:32

million, which is what he could have done,

44:34

and no one would have called him. A

44:36

good con man would have not texted to

44:38

his bookie, you know what? I

44:40

did it. I stole that money. He

44:42

just seems like just two guys.

44:45

I'm trying to find

44:47

a way to say this that's not

44:49

disparaging to Shohei, but I'll just say

44:51

that he had a lot to worry

44:53

about, or a lot of other things

44:55

to focus on, so maybe it's understandable

44:57

how he could end up in this

45:00

situation. I texted

45:02

a few people who work in baseball, and

45:04

one of the overriding things was that Shohei

45:06

was, and this is a direct quote, too

45:08

pure, which made him uniquely

45:11

susceptible to this type of thing and trusting

45:13

of someone like Ipe. This

45:15

I think is a plausible story. I have no idea

45:17

if this is true, but something like this is a

45:19

plausible story. The account that Mr. Sahara was stealing the

45:21

money from was the account that the Los Angeles Angels

45:23

were depositing Otani's checks

45:26

into. All the endorsements and all the

45:28

money that Otani was making outside of

45:30

his salary. Which was $90 million a

45:32

year. You're saying all the outside?

45:35

From his Japanese endorsements for the last several years while he was

45:37

making less than the angels. How much he was making from the

45:39

Angels? I can't remember what

45:41

it was for arbitration, but something $30

45:43

million? I think it was net $50

45:45

million over that first contract Pre

45:47

the $750 million. Then You add sort of

45:49

California taxes, which I'm sure he's paying in

45:51

the highest bracket. They're probably going to take

45:53

52% or so. So You're making half of

45:56

that. So He's got this account that he's

45:58

making, getting money from the Angels. The

46:00

recounted the Big One vs with ninety

46:02

million dollars. How crazy would it be?

46:04

If. Showing attorney told his best friend maybe

46:07

one of it's only friends the world his

46:09

his translator who is his manager, his everything

46:11

says you know what? Use.

46:13

This account. To. Do whatever you want to

46:16

do. I. Trust You Are you

46:18

my boy? You you. Wanna go to

46:20

Vegas and like do something like you want to stay

46:22

and like a sweet. You can use this

46:24

account. I'm not even gonna look the other

46:26

a curriculum with ninety million dollars coming into it

46:28

every single year and then I'm actually interested

46:30

in because it is sensitive to new successes that

46:33

I have in the marketplace, right? Oh, I

46:35

get like a New Avenue endorsement from you know,

46:37

the Japanese Bank. Okay, cool. let's fire me

46:39

to pay attention to that. You know, Ebay. Do

46:41

whatever you want to do with this account

46:43

on the paying attention E bay than goes to

46:46

a bookie and says hey, guess what I know

46:48

that you see my whatever tax returns I

46:50

only make five thousand dollars a year. But

46:52

but. The most famous base of them

46:54

in the world is told me that I

46:56

had internet access to the checking accounts that

46:59

is hooked up to the L Angels. So

47:01

let me go forty million dollars into debt

47:03

with the others, Keep transferring money. I think

47:05

that's how it started, but. I guess.

47:07

See your point? Yes, it's that. It's a brilliant

47:09

com from the start with the key to being

47:12

a brilliant con artist is not getting caught in

47:14

the game. That getting caught is not getting forty

47:16

million dollars in debt to an illegal bookie. still

47:18

hits it. It might have started with brilliant on

47:20

artistry, but it did not end with going penner

47:23

depending on you Cla women's soccer supposed Ninety thousand

47:25

vats, seventy. That is what I know. You're down

47:27

bad at assist minutes. Three hundred thousand dollars on

47:29

the plus one, it's usually women's I mean, I

47:32

get bad. I would understand bad. I. Mean

47:34

it seems like a be a great way to

47:36

it. Honestly like. It's

47:38

like be married in some regard of like.

47:41

My wife and I both have access to.

47:43

I'm not second day to day and see

47:46

stays home. So yeah some the bills I

47:48

needed to charities. I'm a big Bob playmakers.

47:50

It's cool, I'm not. I'll hear like second

47:52

everyday. What's this Was back and like Rizzo

47:55

Hate that would be a situation that makes

47:57

sense. I need to focus on baseball. You

47:59

had. Live this account. don't do

48:01

me too dirty by like you can

48:03

go have a good time, have fancy

48:06

dinners we respect? Yep yep that's fine

48:08

but this fall when ruined net by

48:10

Thrive the. When big but

48:12

he doesn't have enough excitement in his life,

48:14

he really almost ruined it. We have text

48:17

messages that shows that there was a bookie

48:19

watching shall have a tiny walk His dog

48:21

he was a seems like he was like

48:23

minutes away from a very bad situation. Cause

48:26

a the Us when it through. yeah let's quickly talk

48:28

about something that's like. In the

48:31

also playing baseball which is also play him so

48:33

he had honey which is pitchers albus which is.

48:36

Guys. Are try harder. And

48:39

they're spitting the bomb. Or because it

48:41

during harder, more velocity, more control, more

48:44

Tommy john, more rotator cuff surgeries and

48:46

you're looking at a game where. We

48:49

might be careening towards. The. Extinction

48:51

of the number one pitcher. Guys.

48:53

Are don't fearing story harder and. Seen.

48:56

Beavers recently gotten her it's mentor. Striders recently

48:58

got her care cause recently gotten hurt. Something.

49:01

Like half of the hardest on pitches the major

49:03

leagues are going under the knife. For. Tommy

49:06

John Surgery in is a question here of.

49:08

How big of a problem is this for Major

49:11

League Baseball? In do we think it is something

49:13

that is correct Double if the game is so

49:15

going to have a pitch clock is still function

49:17

the waited it currently does. So I think that

49:19

most people right now when a plane the pets

49:22

clock because that's the most recent change. Him: when

49:24

you see a recent phenomenon like a lot of

49:26

players elbows are blowing up, you blame the most

49:28

recent things have changed I think goes much deeper.

49:30

I'm very interested in a phenomenon that I called

49:33

the dark Side of moneyball. I think baseball more

49:35

than any other sport, but this is certainly a

49:37

phenomenon that is happening across sports. Oh

49:40

solved itself. The smart guys sigurd

49:42

out. Oh, here's what we need

49:44

to do to launch angle. Here's

49:46

what we need to do to

49:48

walks. Here are the stats that

49:50

matter most usually should do for

49:52

pitchers. We should have more pitchers.

49:55

Pits. Fewer innings. Throw

49:57

harder with more movement in his.

50:00

That's. Good strategy, like in a

50:02

vacuum. It was a bunch of

50:04

smart decisions, but. As. I wrote

50:06

this piece of the Atlantic. Sometimes you can

50:08

win the finite game and lose the infinite

50:11

game. You can get really really good at

50:13

winning the day to day again, but you

50:15

can ruin aspects of the larger sports. I

50:17

think at one thing that's happened to baseball

50:19

more generally is that number one thing has

50:22

gotten more boring as we as have become

50:24

assault sport. There have been fewer hits, fewer

50:26

base runners, fewer stolen bases and more. It's

50:28

true outcomes of just walk, strikeouts and home

50:30

runs admits lead to more boring game and

50:33

also before the pitch clock lead to I

50:35

think a longer. Game. But the other

50:37

thing that that happened is to

50:39

baseball players bodies yeah I'd think

50:41

said the way that baseball teams

50:43

a cigarette out is optimal for.

50:46

For players to pitch is so far from

50:48

optimal from the way that human arm should

50:50

move ever that it has increased the incentive

50:52

on the front end for people just throw

50:54

their arm out the and then I think

50:56

I might be a getting ahead and up

50:59

with you and make but there's also an

51:01

incentive on the backend. Yeah we're getting much

51:03

better at sixteen people the throughout their arm

51:05

Tommy John surgery is much better than it

51:07

was Five ten, fifteen years ago. There's even

51:09

some results from Tommy John surgery we you

51:11

can make the arm Tiger Woods players are

51:13

throwing even faster whatever it is. Nine months.

51:16

After their surgery and so as long as

51:18

baseball team's going to keep handing out you

51:20

know, fifty one hundred hundred fifty million dollar

51:22

salaries, his players are throwing their arms out

51:24

there. Gonna keep throwing their arms out as

51:26

fans at home think wait, where's the here

51:29

at Pitcher Were Strider, Where are where are

51:31

these guys? It's just a part of what

51:33

I see as the dark side of moneyball.

51:35

I've been busy though it was were either

51:37

going full circle or are just exposing that.

51:39

I can only see the were a one

51:41

way and then I think this is the

51:43

same reason why we have a hard time

51:46

predicting. Quarterbacks As I think

51:48

that baseball and basketball to

51:50

some degree our own of

51:53

far end of the complexity

51:55

spectrum from football football's I'm.

51:57

not complicated game was very com complex game,

52:00

meaning there are a bunch of different

52:02

variables. Essentially, there are a bunch of

52:05

different games happening on the field at

52:07

the same time. What's happening on the

52:09

offensive line has absolutely

52:11

no correlation to what the receivers and

52:14

corners are doing. Same thing with the

52:16

quarterback, linebackers, running backs, the coaches. Like

52:18

the complexity of the game makes it

52:20

so that you can't solve it. And

52:23

I think that makes it so

52:25

the game can survive analytics. Basketball

52:30

is pretty simple too, but we're talking about baseball.

52:33

Basketball has done a better job, but

52:35

they've also suffered. I think there's some

52:37

diversity in play in basketball more

52:39

now than, but still, we still know that there's

52:41

a lot more three-pointers. But we'll do the two

52:43

sports that we're talking about that are on the

52:45

farthest in the spectrum. Baseball is

52:48

so simple, there is a right way to play if

52:50

you want to win. Every play. Once the ball is

52:52

in play, there's a right play every single time the

52:54

ball leaves the pitcher's hand. And also in

52:56

a world where there's more true outcomes of just

52:58

strikeouts, walks, home runs, those

53:00

other eight guys in the field might as well not

53:02

be there. You might as well be watching a kind

53:04

of fencing, right? It's a duel. It's

53:07

a duel of pitcher and catcher

53:09

versus batter if you're just going

53:11

to have those true outcomes of walks, strikeout, and home run.

53:14

So it's not that that duel isn't

53:16

complicated and compelling. It is complicated and

53:19

it can be compelling, but I'm with

53:21

you. It's easier to solve for a

53:23

duel than it is to solve for

53:25

however many permutations and combinations you get when you

53:27

have 11 guys lining up against 11 guys. And

53:30

a lot of them can do whatever they want to

53:33

win. And their jobs are

53:35

different. I can walk next to

53:37

a number of different football players. I

53:39

stand next to Ray Lewis and he's like,

53:42

oh, you guys do the same thing? That was one of the

53:44

craziest things. He's not even the most

53:46

different from me. Jonathan Ogden is like,

53:48

oh, you guys are in the same

53:50

like league. And then there's a white

53:53

guy who's six five and kind of slim. Like,

53:55

oh yeah, he does the same thing too. It's

53:57

like, it's so weird. Then there's a guy kicking.

54:00

Like what is he doing here? And

54:02

so like I think that makes it

54:05

difficult and that complexity is what makes

54:07

it kind of endlessly interesting Which is

54:09

why you can have different schemes offensively

54:11

and different schemes defensively that are

54:13

all kind of Optimizing in your

54:16

way and the other thing about football

54:18

about baseball the

54:20

way to optimize baseball also

54:23

leads to Fewer

54:25

stars No, very

54:27

important. Like the point that you were making

54:29

before where we I would

54:31

want to tune in to see the one guy

54:33

Who's about to break this record or the one

54:36

guy that I know is good as hell Like

54:38

I want to watch Shohei I tuned I don't

54:40

tune into a bunch of baseball Charlie's trying to

54:42

sell me that they fix the game with the

54:45

pitch a lot better I will now but last

54:47

year I tuned in you know what to see

54:49

Shohei because there's one guy doing something special I

54:51

would not tune in to a team that had

54:54

one guy that could pitch like Shohei and

54:56

another guy who could hit like Shohei

54:59

If this one dude though, that's cool

55:01

and the way that the game the

55:03

optimization of this game is taking a

55:05

whole position and Quite

55:07

possibly the most interesting position like that was

55:09

the position that we grew up like there's

55:12

people we at home runs and then there's

55:14

the Ace that's what you care

55:16

about and they are just killing it I like

55:18

I don't I don't know who to tune in

55:20

when we like laugh sometimes at Thursday night games

55:23

when they put up the Promo or the next

55:25

Thursday night game, you know when it's no good

55:27

quarterbacks as we get the CJ Watt games You

55:30

know and they put up somebody and that's the

55:32

same thing for baseball where it's like who are

55:34

you putting up in these Marquis? that's gonna make

55:36

us tune in because To

55:39

your infinite and finite point slightly different

55:41

But it's about having two different goals

55:43

in the game And one of the

55:45

goals is for the teams to win

55:47

and be as successful as possible The

55:49

other goal is to make a compelling

55:52

Entertainment product and

55:54

you know what's compelling entertainment stars

55:56

names. We know with history and

55:58

like coming off of watching Caitlin

56:00

Clark and the women's basketball like if

56:02

that's not a reminder to

56:05

everyone else that you need to

56:07

understand what's important to compel

56:09

your game. Basketball and baseball I

56:12

think you need stars. Football you

56:14

need quarterbacks but football frankly it

56:16

seems like the complexity itself and

56:18

its connection to American culture will make it

56:20

and the violence will make it so it's

56:23

fine. So unless you guys go start adding

56:25

some violence you need

56:27

to understand how to

56:29

marry the entertainment value

56:31

of your game with the incentives that

56:33

you're creating on the other side and

56:35

this is also like the culture of

56:37

baseball is kind

56:40

of rigid and that's like it makes

56:42

it very difficult I think to because

56:45

like this this rule change is largely overdue like

56:47

the pitch clock is an overdue rule change they're

56:49

just getting around to it and they need to

56:51

at some point get on the same page and

56:53

understand that we are falling behind as far as

56:56

entertainment is concerned. There's a lot of stuff there

56:58

that's really interesting I think like the creation

57:00

of stars in baseball yet there are fewer

57:03

20 game winners I don't know if there

57:05

will ever be another 300 game winner which

57:07

is like a bummer because chasing records in

57:09

baseball seemed to mean more that did another

57:12

sport so it's just more one-to-one comparing eras

57:14

because stats the games they all lined up but

57:17

we are still seeing that having

57:20

a dominant starting pitcher can be

57:22

the most important thing in

57:24

October to win the World Series like some of

57:26

the notable World Series you remember our posties you

57:28

remember Strasburg winning five

57:30

starts sadly he then threw

57:32

535 more pitches in his career

57:34

because his elbow and shoulder blew out mass

57:37

and bum garner had dominant posties performances

57:39

it was sadly out of being

57:41

an effective pitcher when he's 26 years old so

57:44

like it really goes back and forth and

57:46

I don't know how relevant this is to the entertainment

57:48

product but one of the things I think is really

57:51

interesting is the

57:53

optimization of performance in baseball it

57:56

used to be the most rare thing to have an electric

57:58

arm to have someone to get through almost 100 miles

58:00

an hour. That was like the holy grail

58:03

finding those guys. They had Bob Feller in

58:06

the 40s throwing next to a car

58:08

driving 100 miles an hour because they thought it

58:10

was so unbelievable that someone could throw a baseball

58:12

that hard. Now they

58:14

have it down to a science. You have someone with an

58:16

elastic arm who can throw in the upper 80s, low 90s,

58:19

they can get you to 100 miles an hour. And

58:22

that's like, I don't know if that's because

58:24

these guys are obviously sick. They're just more sick pitchers

58:26

now than like, it's not really affecting the quality of

58:28

the game that Shane Bieber is out there. There's another

58:31

guy who's going through 100 miles an hour and the

58:33

ball sinks and moves and befuddles hitters. But

58:36

to me, it's just insane that we've gotten to a point where you

58:39

have made the most rare skill the most

58:41

common. And the rarity is also

58:43

what makes it special. Yeah, I didn't really have a point

58:46

there. No, no, no. Before Derek Cheeto is my favorite baseball

58:52

player, Nolan Ryan is my favorite baseball player.

58:54

And I believe that at one point in

58:56

the 70s, 1980s, he had the fastest pitch

58:58

in Major League history. And he's a fascinating

59:00

guy because he's someone who really did just throw 100, 100,

59:03

100, 100. And he played until he

59:07

was like 47 years old. Yeah, we

59:09

need to study that man's arm.

59:11

We need to take like whatever

59:13

gene was built his shoulder blade

59:15

and find some way to like, splice it into

59:17

a generation like there's something Nolan Ryan was doing

59:19

that would really be valuable for today's pitchers. The

59:21

thing that I find interesting about what you said,

59:24

Charlie, like you didn't have a question between you

59:26

two, we can have a conversation. I think the

59:28

part that I find interesting is you

59:31

would think that that

59:33

would be something that players would not

59:36

appreciate in the long run, because

59:38

it makes their bodies more disposable

59:40

is like we're going to like

59:44

tweak your arm angle and your pitching

59:46

technique and everything in training

59:48

in order to make injury

59:51

almost certainty, but make you throw really

59:53

hard, but also everyone else throws really

59:56

hard, but you can't differentiate yourself, but

59:58

I actually think that it's probably

1:00:00

one a few times and I think

1:00:02

about running backs in football where disposability

1:00:06

is actually in the players

1:00:08

benefit in a way that

1:00:10

in football is not so

1:00:13

in baseball the disposal or excuse me

1:00:15

in football obviously we see the disposability

1:00:17

running backs they just cycle them through

1:00:19

but in baseball they're doing a similar

1:00:21

thing with pitchers but they're keeping the

1:00:23

pictures and they're ending up having longer

1:00:25

careers and I think that what would

1:00:27

happen otherwise is there be the one

1:00:30

Nolan Ryan who was special he'd get

1:00:32

a ridiculous contract and then they would running

1:00:34

back the rest of these guys oh you're

1:00:37

torn you're gone you're torn you're gone so

1:00:39

the development the ability to make them pitch

1:00:41

harder in the progress

1:00:43

and the effectiveness of the surgery I think

1:00:45

has ended up helping the players more

1:00:48

than you would think which is normally like

1:00:50

as a players union guy when the league

1:00:52

gets excited about something or coaches have a

1:00:54

new technique it never

1:00:56

is in our favor but this one kind

1:00:58

of feels like for the pitchers that do

1:01:01

have success they probably most of them end

1:01:03

up having longer better careers and some of

1:01:05

them who were throwing 80 and had movement

1:01:07

get to the major leagues now and they

1:01:10

never would have in the past yeah

1:01:12

I basically want to do a feature that's like the

1:01:14

endangered species of sports right like the workhorse

1:01:16

running back endangered species like the starting pitcher

1:01:18

who wins 20 games a year another endangered

1:01:21

species certainly the pitcher that wins 300 games

1:01:23

in his career is endangered

1:01:25

species I mean I remember looking at someone

1:01:28

like de grom like maybe the most talented

1:01:30

pitcher in India baseball you know on like

1:01:32

a per thrill basis he's

1:01:34

won like 60 maybe you can look

1:01:36

this up as I'm talking it's like 60

1:01:39

games his career there was like or something

1:01:41

I mean it's just it's just fascinating how

1:01:43

our expectation of starting pitcher greatness

1:01:45

has been totally warped

1:01:48

in this new age of the arm

1:01:50

and the science of the arm and

1:01:52

our ability to turn many different people

1:01:54

into human beings that can

1:01:57

throw a Nolan Ryan pitch briefly before

1:01:59

they flamethrower. out. I am

1:02:01

not the writer you are but I do know

1:02:03

that we need three. We can't just do, we

1:02:05

gotta find, I mean I feel like what's

1:02:08

after endangered because the post move

1:02:11

big man in basketball he long been dead.

1:02:13

I mean Zach Edie is the only one

1:02:15

left. That's gotta be it

1:02:18

and Edie is such a great news peg. You start with

1:02:20

Edie and then you say he's your first example right. It's

1:02:22

the Edie style center and then you go into the

1:02:25

other two. That's the piece. It's already done. It just

1:02:28

reminded me of something else I think we

1:02:30

probably are running out of time pretty soon

1:02:32

but this just segway into another topic that

1:02:34

I thought was interesting that connects the

1:02:37

endangered species with also the

1:02:39

entertainment value is kind of

1:02:42

how professionalized youth sports has

1:02:44

gotten and it

1:02:46

makes players less interesting. I was thinking

1:02:48

about the endangered species in basketball and

1:02:50

I've had this conversation with Lamont Jones

1:02:53

a couple of times. He reminds us

1:02:55

that basketball was better when we had

1:02:57

less good basketball players because there were

1:02:59

guys whose job was

1:03:01

to be an enforcer. His job was to

1:03:03

get rebounds and those are guys who had

1:03:05

personality. There's a lot more personality and I've

1:03:07

come to believe this is my own personal

1:03:10

theory is that once they

1:03:12

find out you're good they start putting you

1:03:14

in these professional programs for just

1:03:16

about every sport immediately and

1:03:18

they start training you on how to

1:03:20

be a pro. Maybe you don't make

1:03:22

it but the ones who make it

1:03:24

are already so good at everything and

1:03:26

already had the quirkiness. I remember Bill

1:03:28

Cartwright's jump shot. That would never make

1:03:30

it to the NBA now and I loved

1:03:33

laughing at Bill Cartwright's jump shot with my

1:03:35

friends. All that stuff is

1:03:37

gone and I think we assume that

1:03:41

better is always more interesting but

1:03:44

better is not always better

1:03:46

in entertainment. You

1:03:49

are ahead of your time because this goes

1:03:51

back to the piece you wrote a few

1:03:53

years ago and that we see the same

1:03:56

thing in movies and entertainment. They've

1:03:59

optimized what's gonna make

1:04:01

the most money? And they're not

1:04:03

willing to take some shots and

1:04:05

throw some duds out there again

1:04:08

and sometimes hit a home run and open

1:04:10

up something that we didn't know we were

1:04:12

interested in. Well, people root for weirdness. We

1:04:14

root for what we've never seen before. And

1:04:16

one reason why the Caitlin Clark phenomenon was

1:04:18

so captivating, I think, for so many people

1:04:21

is that watching someone just pull up at

1:04:23

the logo and hit three after three, it's

1:04:26

just shocking to see in college sports. And then you

1:04:28

add to that the fact that she's actually

1:04:30

an exceptional outlet passer. Like

1:04:33

she's an unbelievably exciting passer.

1:04:35

And so again, the Caitlin Clark phenomenon is not

1:04:37

something you would ever teach necessarily, although unfortunately it's

1:04:39

now going to be taught because she's so successful.

1:04:42

It rather surprised us by its weirdness. Like what

1:04:44

we want to be shocked by, I think, when

1:04:47

we watch sports is not just to

1:04:49

see the same thing we saw

1:04:51

yesterday and the day before and the day before.

1:04:53

We wanna see something that we've never seen before.

1:04:55

And that gets harder when we develop these sort

1:04:57

of professional pipelines that are really, really good at

1:04:59

minting the same athlete over and over. And

1:05:02

it's not, I think this is, someone's

1:05:04

gonna have to end this because I'm not gonna

1:05:06

stop talking because it's too much fun and too

1:05:09

interesting. But I think the Caitlin Clark story is

1:05:11

a great one for now to mirror a bunch

1:05:13

of different things that we've already talked about, especially

1:05:15

in the entertainment value of this, because I do

1:05:17

believe that there is

1:05:19

art. And then someone

1:05:21

figures out that art can be profitable and then

1:05:23

you find a way to make it more and

1:05:25

more profitable. And then you keep going and it's

1:05:28

sweet. And it's fine, it

1:05:30

means more money, it means more attention, it means

1:05:32

more fun. Then there's a certain point where you

1:05:34

cross that threshold into now this is about making

1:05:36

money and things stop being as fun. And I

1:05:39

think that women's college basketball is at that sweet

1:05:41

spot where men's college basketball was when I was

1:05:43

a kid, because all the things that we're talking

1:05:45

about, diversity of play. I

1:05:48

watched LSU throw the ball in the

1:05:50

post and ask Angel Reese to do

1:05:52

those mediocre post moves to win. It

1:05:54

was very different than the way that

1:05:57

Caitlin Clark was playing. And

1:05:59

We talk about personality. Please we see

1:06:01

again as a wreath kind of

1:06:03

personality. Dodds Daily Very different personality.

1:06:05

Caitlin Clark Zola Nobody. You can

1:06:07

see me as a different personality.

1:06:09

The same thing with can multi

1:06:11

ton of personality and it feels

1:06:14

like they're at that point where.

1:06:17

It's. Just the sweet spot and was the end

1:06:19

We talked about like stars being around long enough

1:06:21

and baseball's that You didn't fall in love with

1:06:23

them or learn to hate him and it makes

1:06:25

you care. They're doing the same thing and women's

1:06:27

college basketball so we are had that sweet spot

1:06:29

and I don't know what we did to cross

1:06:31

the threshold for so many of our the sports

1:06:33

but please let's not do it for them and

1:06:36

try to turn back the clock on arrest them

1:06:38

in a that yeah. They. Prepared to

1:06:40

dismount by the way to take of the ground

1:06:42

with ten and nine with a whimper. seventy or

1:06:44

a wee bit of what was his curve. What's

1:06:46

his career number of wins? The he has one

1:06:48

and. Eighty four credits yet? Yeah

1:06:50

and we have a participant. Great I loved

1:06:52

it. Begs you so much Derek Thompson for

1:06:54

joining us. I hope that you can find

1:06:56

time to do this, is with us again

1:06:58

sometime and were more than happy to join

1:07:00

you. If you do a sports that don't

1:07:02

bring us on a talk about Kobe at

1:07:04

our election or religion or any other important

1:07:06

things is how about I would love as

1:07:08

I let have in the show a bit

1:07:10

beginning of football season. I. Want to

1:07:12

talk about. Seeing. I'm.

1:07:15

Really interested in getting smarter about watching football like

1:07:17

when I watch football at home. Sometimes I wonder

1:07:19

with with with my friend I watch with what

1:07:21

should I be looking at. When I was younger

1:07:24

I used to always look at the quarterback and

1:07:26

now trying to look more at the line that

1:07:28

more the defense. I would love to do a

1:07:30

show that's like how to watch football like a

1:07:32

pro and I feel like maybe I should go

1:07:34

to a proper that suffer. I can't wait bad

1:07:36

love to do that with yard tell us antithesis

1:07:39

three sound recording and secrets and then everyone else

1:07:41

can tune in your pocket. Here are seriously genuinely

1:07:43

bags them. Isis has been better than I've. Been

1:07:45

expected a hobby. Endure December to have

1:07:47

you back on. Thank you Charlie Door!

1:07:50

Great job as usual Buggy pod Bill

1:07:52

was beautiful studio and all my great

1:07:54

produces Bags You Meghan Thera, Sina, Brian

1:07:56

and Kevin. Cortez.

1:08:00

Route and examining Fox.

1:08:14

Hole. Of is unique and. Special Power

1:08:16

Drone Football and what sets him

1:08:19

apart. The Heightened Trophy winner is

1:08:21

Jane. Dinner on of the group

1:08:23

were high. He. Gets

1:08:27

the job. For

1:08:31

in a sales less we did. You

1:08:35

see,