0:03

Hello and welcome to the Energy Gang, coming to

0:05

you this week from the COP28 climate talks in

0:08

Dubai. And I'm joined here in Dubai

0:10

by an Energy Gang regular, Amy Harder,

0:12

who is the executive editor of Cypher,

0:14

which is the news publication produced by

0:16

Breakthrough Energy. And that's the Clean Energy

0:19

Network, which was founded by Bill Gates.

0:21

Amy, thanks very much for joining us.

0:23

You're very welcome. Happy to be here. Yeah, great

0:25

to see you in this unfamiliar location, familiar

0:28

face in an unfamiliar location. Great to see

0:30

you here. And also we're joined by Amy's

0:32

colleague, Bill Spindle, who is the chief correspondent

0:34

for Cypher as well. Bill, thanks very much

0:37

also for joining us on the Energy Gang

0:39

today. Great to be here. So, Amy,

0:42

we've only just arrived at you here. We're

0:44

coming on day four of the COP. You've

0:46

been here right since the beginning. What have

0:49

your impressions of it been so far? What

0:51

have you made of the way the conference

0:53

has unfolded in the first few days? Well,

0:55

one thing that has really struck me is just how

0:58

much bigger and such

1:00

a production this is. Now, that's for

1:03

two reasons. One, we're in Dubai, which

1:05

is an extremely opulent city

1:08

in the desert. So you have that dynamic,

1:10

which I think we should talk about because

1:12

it's interesting. But secondly, the climate

1:14

debate has evolved to a

1:16

place where there's trade shows

1:19

and there's companies and there's

1:21

just everybody is surrounding these

1:23

negotiations. One fact to kind

1:25

of put this into perspective is the

1:27

Paris COP, which is COP21,

1:30

which, of course, the Paris

1:32

Climate Agreement was signed in 2015. I

1:34

think it was about a record. It was a record breaking number at

1:36

the time of about 40,000 people.

1:39

This year, there's more than 100,000 people. So

1:42

that's just shocking to see how

1:44

many more people there

1:47

are here now today compared to what was

1:49

then a record number. And that's a sign

1:51

of a result of the

1:53

Paris agreement itself. It's beginning this

1:55

slow turn to a

1:57

whole new economy of clean energy. Now, the

1:59

following. of fuel economies by no means

2:01

behind us, obviously, it's front and

2:04

center with this oil-rich host, but

2:07

just the sheer amount of

2:09

trade show-esque type exhibits all

2:11

around this expert city complex,

2:13

which for reference is larger than Central

2:16

Park, to give you a sense

2:18

of how big it is and why I and everybody

2:20

else who knows anything should be walking around in tennis

2:22

shoes and nothing else. So those are some of my

2:24

first impressions and I'm happy to dive in more. Yeah,

2:27

thanks so much. So, I mean, as you say, just thinking about

2:29

the scale of it and the way that the COP has become

2:31

a trade show, as you say. So

2:34

we're currently sitting in the Blue Zone, which is

2:36

sort of the area where the real negotiations go

2:39

on, and that's where people from the

2:41

UN and from the 200 odd countries

2:43

that are represented here actually

2:45

talk about concrete outcomes that they want to

2:47

come out of the COP, then there's something

2:50

else which is called the Green Zone. And

2:52

as you say, that's basically a great big

2:54

exhibition trade show, lots of corporate stands there

2:56

and so on. I have

2:58

heard people be critical of that

3:00

and basically say that it's turned into a

3:03

circus. People are talking about it as the

3:05

Green Davos. People say it's this thing which

3:07

is dominated by corporate voices.

3:09

It was interesting. I noticed a

3:11

protest just as we were walking

3:14

in earlier today and certainly sort

3:16

of opposition to

3:18

corporate interests in the COP is a

3:20

very kind of live theme. And people

3:22

say, how can you really expect to

3:25

get anything done that is serious in

3:27

terms of climate policy, in

3:29

terms of actually making a material

3:31

difference to the global energy system

3:33

and to the course of greenhouse gas emissions if

3:36

corporate voices are so dominant?

3:38

What do you think about that? Do you think there's something

3:41

in that critique? I certainly do. And that's

3:43

a critique we hear on all

3:45

policy issues, right? No matter climate

3:47

change, health care, general

3:50

technology, there's always that understandable

3:52

critique of corporate influence. In

3:54

this case, I think that most of

3:56

the criticism is going on the fossil

3:59

fuel companies. rightly so. And

4:01

another interesting fact is that Darren was

4:03

the CEO of Exxon Mobile, is actually

4:06

the first ever Exxon CEO to attend

4:08

COP. And as far as I understand,

4:10

talking to people that I know close

4:12

to Exxon, they really never

4:14

comes to a COP before at all,

4:17

which is a little bit

4:19

interesting to say the least. You would

4:21

think they would have come to previous

4:23

COPs since Paris. So

4:25

I think that criticism is valid.

4:29

You know, I sort of waffled between

4:31

agreeing with that and thinking,

4:33

hey, let's not lose

4:35

sight of why these COPs exist.

4:39

To the other side, which

4:41

is that this is what humanity does. We

4:43

gather and things get bigger. And there's

4:46

just this tendency for corporations to jump in

4:49

when they think they can make money. And

4:51

is that a bad thing? Ultimately, maybe

4:54

not. But I do think there's a risk of going

4:56

overboard at some point. So Bill,

4:58

you live in the UAE. How do you feel about this

5:01

massive show coming to town? Yeah, well, let's see.

5:03

It is a massive

5:05

extravaganza, which in Dubai

5:08

here, they're particularly good at putting on.

5:10

I think also the UAE, this is

5:12

a country that's really aspired to a

5:15

larger role on the global stage. And

5:17

COP has been a big piece of

5:19

that over the last couple of years,

5:21

putting together this whole thing and

5:23

playing a larger role and obviously

5:25

a pretty tricky and difficult one for

5:28

hosting a climate conference as one of

5:30

the world's largest oil producers and

5:33

gas producers in the world. So that's been

5:35

a challenge for them. And I think they've

5:37

learned some things along

5:40

the way. And the world's

5:42

learned a bit about them along the way. Because

5:44

that's also been quite a focus of the

5:46

criticism, right? As people saying, this

5:48

is not the right place to be holding a COP, that

5:51

Dr. Sultana Al-Jaba, who's the president of the

5:53

talks, is also chief executive of Adnalq, the

5:56

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. And people say

5:58

that role puts a bit of a... Exactly.

6:01

Compromised position, right? And their argument on the other

6:03

side is that the oil and gas industry and

6:06

fossil fuels constitute such a large

6:08

percentage of the emissions

6:11

profile of the world that they need

6:13

a larger voice in solving these problems. They have

6:15

skills that can go to it. That's the argument

6:17

on the other side. And that's kind of what

6:20

set us up for the COP we're really about

6:22

to experience, particularly in the second half,

6:24

I think, when things are really going to get down

6:26

to nuts and bolts about this question of the role

6:28

of fossil fuels. Absolutely. I think

6:30

that's really interesting. And I want to come onto

6:32

that in a moment. As you say, it does

6:34

seem like that question of the future role of

6:37

fossil fuels is going to be absolutely central in

6:39

kind of the business end of the talks, which

6:41

tend to be the second half of the first

6:43

half. It's all the showbiz and the world leaders

6:45

come. That's the razzmatazz end of things. And

6:48

the real negotiations come later once all

6:50

the world leaders have left. It's

6:52

just in terms of what we've seen already in

6:55

terms of sort of substantive outcomes from COP 28.

6:58

Is there anything you point to? I thought it was

7:00

important. Is he slow-funk? Yeah. So

7:02

between the way these COPs work is there is

7:04

this gargantuan trade show, extravaganza, world leaders going out.

7:06

But beneath it all, there is a work program. And

7:09

I would say, at least from

7:11

the UAE's perspective, it's gone pretty

7:14

well so far. They

7:16

avoided what really could have been

7:18

a nasty battle over funding

7:21

from the developed world to the

7:23

developing world, money from rich countries

7:25

who largely caused the climate problem

7:27

to poorer countries that need the

7:29

money and didn't cause the climate

7:31

problem. That's been a

7:34

tension throughout the entire 30,

7:36

40 years of climate diplomacy. That

7:39

could have derailed the whole thing. But they actually came to a

7:42

compromise agreement at the beginning that's allowed

7:44

that to get settled. So

7:47

they've set up this loss and

7:49

damage fund, which is a specific

7:51

fund that is dedicated

7:53

to channeling money from the wealthy countries to

7:55

the poorer countries. It's a lot more complicated

7:58

than that, but basically that's what it is.

8:00

Yes, but the amounts seem pretty tiny, right? I mean,

8:02

what have we had pledged so far? It's been, I

8:04

think, $420 million. I think we're up to

8:06

$600 or $700 million. But

8:08

yeah, it's a tiny, tiny drop in the bucket.

8:11

But there's a principle underlying all

8:13

this of equity and fairness that

8:16

really goes to that. It's

8:18

really the issue that killed the Kyoto

8:20

Protocol, which is what preceded the

8:22

Paris Agreement and defined

8:24

climate negotiations for years. But

8:27

that kind of blew up over this

8:29

issue of equity between the developed world

8:31

and the developing world. They

8:33

came up with a new framework, the Paris framework, which is

8:35

a more we're all going to try as best we can.

8:38

We're going to work together. But

8:41

these equity issues have continued to crop up. And

8:43

they really got to the point right

8:45

before this COP where there were quite a few

8:47

people worried that it was going to blow the whole thing up. They

8:50

came to an agreement under a lot

8:52

of hard work by the Emiratis just

8:55

before the COP started. That deal

8:57

was not reopened, which was a surprise to people

8:59

when we got here at COP. They got that

9:01

passed and we moved on. I think they all

9:03

agreed to battle another day. But there is a

9:05

workable framework. We can talk about it if you

9:07

want. But we got past that.

9:09

As you say, it does look like the

9:12

number is tiny compared to the need of

9:14

the estimates of the damage done by climate

9:16

change vary widely. But certainly I've seen numbers

9:19

running into the many tens of billions, some

9:21

estimates running into the hundreds of billions every

9:23

year. So 600 million

9:26

or several hundred million, whatever it might be.

9:28

A teeny, tiny drop in the bucket of

9:30

what's going to be needed. But

9:33

I think everyone decided enough

9:35

of a start on both sides that better

9:38

not to potentially ruin

9:40

the whole conference and undermine the whole

9:42

Paris framework. So

9:44

move on. And so they did move on. And so

9:46

we talked about some other sums of money that came

9:48

up. Then we moved into

9:51

some pretty substantive agreement. There's a

9:53

big kind of mixed financing

9:55

fund of about $30 billion that

9:57

was pledged that involved. some big

10:00

private financers, that sort of thing.

10:02

Yeah, so tell me about that

10:04

then. So that was something which

10:06

is this kind of, this is

10:08

private investment funds, what intended to

10:10

invest in low carbon energy, decarbonization

10:13

efforts in general in low

10:15

income countries. Is that right? Yes. And

10:17

just generally, there's just the sums of

10:19

money, as we just discussed, are so

10:21

huge that certainly, you know, government to

10:23

government money doesn't even come close to

10:25

covering it, even at the maximum you

10:28

could imagine, you need a lot of

10:30

private funding. And a lot of this

10:32

is then going to be leveraged by

10:34

what are called these multilateral development banks,

10:36

the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,

10:38

the African Development Bank, they

10:40

bring in by helping

10:43

de-risk some of this, some of

10:45

the government money comes in, then maybe the private sector

10:47

can come in with the real, with the real money.

10:49

And the real money in this case is a fiction,

10:52

a figure of, say, $30 billion,

10:55

which is a kind of notional figure, but that's

10:58

getting into the level of funds

11:00

that make a difference, though still

11:02

far short

11:04

of what's needed. Right. And this famous

11:06

$100 billion a year that was meant

11:08

to flow from rich countries to low

11:11

and middle income countries in order to

11:13

finance emissions reduction and

11:16

adaptation to climate change, that was meant

11:18

to include, always the idea was that

11:20

would include private sector money as

11:22

well. That was not all meant to be money coming

11:24

from governments. And so, as you say, if

11:26

you get this kind of $30 billion, if

11:28

that actually happens, that's

11:30

pretty significant on that scale of private

11:32

capital flowing. And then the other really significant

11:35

thing that's happened in the last day is some, it's

11:39

really kind of beginning to form into

11:41

what it was always going to be, which is kind of

11:43

the fossil fuel, oil and gas cop

11:45

for better or for worse, depending on

11:48

your perspective. And

11:50

we did see some pretty significant, potentially

11:53

very significant deals in things like

11:55

methane, which is a

11:57

super potent greenhouse gas that has... been

12:00

talked about a lot before two years ago. For

12:03

the first time, the oil and gas industry this

12:05

week did step up, make some commitments, Exxon even

12:07

jumped on board. I think it was 50 companies

12:10

that put together a

12:12

pledge that they would

12:14

eliminate methane leaks,

12:16

methane emissions. Methane is something that

12:19

is often leaked out

12:21

of the infrastructure of refineries and stuff,

12:23

but also just vented into the atmosphere

12:26

because it's associated with oil

12:28

production often, and they either vent it right

12:30

into the atmosphere or just burn it. Just

12:32

to play devil's advocate here, it's

12:35

also my understanding that critics have pointed out that that's

12:38

primarily focused on the operational emissions

12:40

and doesn't cover what's known as scope

12:42

three emissions of what's actually burned

12:45

by people driving vehicles for example.

12:47

This is where we're moving, right? Basically, the

12:49

oil and gas industry has stepped up, I

12:51

think partly in preparation for the second half

12:53

of this COP, which begins the

12:56

day after tomorrow or so, where the focus

12:58

is really going to be on, so

13:01

far they've stepped up and as Amy points

13:03

out, they're just talking about their own operations.

13:06

We're going to decarbonize the

13:09

greenhouse gases. We emit

13:11

as part of the process of

13:13

finding, mining, pumping

13:16

oil and gas, but obviously

13:18

the much, much bigger question

13:21

is the emissions that come from the

13:23

burning of fossil fuel, the use of fossil fuel,

13:26

which is a global issue, and

13:30

that's where the whole COP is really, I

13:32

think, the attention is going to turn. That's

13:36

going to be a very interesting, I

13:38

think personally a productive and

13:40

important debate, frustrations on all

13:42

sides, but that's

13:44

because it's so important and this is really the

13:47

heart of the matter. And

13:49

where do you two come out on this

13:51

one then? I mean, as you say, this

13:53

seems to be the fundamental, it's a fundamental

13:55

kind of philosophical divide, if you like, in

13:57

global energy in general. And

14:00

it's going to be a very crucial point

14:02

of debate, and it's got probably the central

14:04

issue for the rest of the cult. What

14:06

do you think? I think there are extremes

14:08

on both sides of this. And without even

14:10

saying either extreme is wrong, there's

14:12

a side that sort of sees the

14:15

idea that we could do anything but grow

14:17

fossil fuel production over the next 20 to

14:20

30 years simply to meet

14:22

developmental needs around the world, particularly of

14:24

poor populations. So they see it's

14:27

going to grow. On the other

14:30

side of the spectrum is a group of climate activists,

14:32

advocates that really

14:35

don't see any reason why within a few years

14:37

from now we couldn't just be eliminating fossil fuels

14:39

altogether. Those are really

14:41

difficult things, really impossible things to

14:43

do on both sides of that debate.

14:46

But in the middle, I do think there is an important

14:49

and reasonable debate going on about how

14:52

is this transition going to take place? Is it going

14:54

to be a fairly

14:57

organic, largely

15:00

market-driven, not very socially

15:02

disruptive process on the

15:04

one hand? Or

15:07

to what extent are we in

15:09

a really emergency crisis situation that this

15:11

needs to be pushed along and

15:15

pushed in a way that

15:17

might cause some disruption here and there,

15:19

that might involve government action as opposed

15:21

to just market-based

15:24

forces? And I think that's really the debate that's

15:26

got to be had at the end of the

15:28

day. I think an interesting

15:30

anecdote to illustrate the tensions at

15:33

play is the latest positions

15:35

that the International Energy Agency has taken and some

15:37

of the reaction that we've heard from that. So

15:40

let me just check the exact quote, which I've pulled

15:42

up on my phone here. There's been

15:44

all this talk about supply and demand

15:46

and that what senior oil

15:49

executives have said is that, quote, when

15:51

the energy world changes, so will we.

15:54

But the IEA says in response to that,

15:56

that that's not an adequate response, that

15:59

the actually have to step up and

16:01

help reduce demand. Although,

16:04

you know, critics would say, why would a

16:06

company step up to encourage

16:08

reduction of demand for their product? That's

16:10

not how capitalism works. But nonetheless, I

16:12

found this report very pointed and

16:15

really is setting us up for

16:17

an interesting debate. Another thing this report says

16:20

is that many producers say

16:22

that they will be the ones to

16:24

keep producing throughout transitions and beyond. They

16:26

cannot all be right. I've called

16:28

this the fossil fuel game of crude musical

16:31

chairs. You know, all these

16:33

fossil fuel producers think they're going to win this game

16:35

and be the last one, but they

16:37

can't all be. The ones that will likely be, which Bill and I

16:39

have talked about, probably will be the producers

16:41

here in the Middle East because they can do it

16:43

very cheaply and, relatively

16:45

speaking, cleanly. But

16:48

in response to this IEA report,

16:50

OPEC released a pretty

16:52

critical statement to IEA saying, we

16:55

think you have a very narrow perspective and

16:57

don't vilify us for the climate crisis.

17:00

And so this dynamic between IEA,

17:02

which frankly, let's not forget, it was

17:05

set up to protect energy security

17:07

after the 1973 oil crisis. So

17:10

it's interesting that this is where we're

17:12

at today. And so that to me is a very

17:14

interesting dynamic and something that I'll be watching for the

17:16

next few days. Because Amy, you're

17:19

going home now, I gather. You're

17:21

not going to see the talks till the bitter end. But

17:23

as you say, in terms of what you're going to be looking

17:25

out for, then it's that question of this debate

17:27

over the future of fossil fuels. And that's the

17:30

crucial issue that people should be keeping an eye on.

17:33

Certainly that. And

17:35

the finance stuff, which is sort of

17:37

the eat your vegetables part of this debate. It's

17:39

a little boring, but extremely important, which is why

17:42

you should all go to cyphernews.com and

17:44

read our great series we have on it, Spearheaded

17:46

by Bill. But

17:49

those are the two sort of parallel things that

17:51

I'll be looking at. And layered on top of

17:54

the oil debate is the development

17:56

of new technologies. question

18:00

of when will new technologies, renewable

18:02

energy but also other types of

18:04

clean energy, when will that begin

18:06

to actually supplant fossil fuels?

18:08

Because for now we've just had an energy addition

18:10

and we need an

18:12

energy transition. Thanks. So Bill, you're sticking

18:15

it out to the better end. What are you going to

18:17

be looking for and what are you going to be watching

18:19

most closely in these remaining days of the COP? I think

18:21

Amy's put her finger right on it. I

18:25

think when you get bass to bomb bass on all sides,

18:27

any way you can do the math, demand

18:29

for fossil fuels is absolutely going to

18:31

have to fall. It's really a question

18:34

of how fast and replaced

18:36

by what and how disruptive will

18:38

that process be. And

18:40

I suspect what I'll be watching for, you're not

18:42

going to see a solution, a resolution

18:44

to this debate over phasing

18:47

out fossil fuels altogether versus using even more of them

18:49

over the next 20 years. They're not going to settle

18:52

that in the next week. But I

18:54

do think the UAE is cutting a middle

18:56

path that is not necessarily

18:58

satisfactory to any side. I'm not even

19:01

sure it's the right solution, but it's

19:03

basically let's focus on promoting

19:05

renewable energy as much as we can.

19:07

And to a certain extent this is

19:09

going to be obviously part of the

19:11

big solution is boosting the

19:13

replacements, the clean alternatives to

19:16

fossil fuels and eventually pushing them out of

19:18

the system. And the debate is around how

19:21

fast can you do that? How do you pay

19:23

for it? I think that's where the

19:26

goal that we haven't talked about that they did

19:28

throw out, I think will be adopted as a

19:30

tripling of renewable energy. That's

19:32

certainly part of the solution. That's not going to be

19:34

the full solution. And

19:36

for listeners to this podcast and for

19:38

people watching COP28 around the world, what's

19:41

the one thing you think that people should take away

19:43

as a message from this? I mean, in terms of

19:46

how optimistic or pessimistic should

19:48

people be that the world is actually

19:51

starting to grips with this problem, that we are taking

19:53

the real steps that need to be taken to avoid

19:57

absolutely catastrophic outcomes for climate

19:59

change. What's your

20:01

takeaway? Yeah, I think Amy said it at the

20:03

beginning is that the fact that there

20:05

are 100,000 delegates here at the

20:07

very least points

20:10

to the underscores that people understand

20:12

this is a really

20:14

serious problem that needs to be

20:16

taken on. Whether

20:19

you should be optimistic or pessimistic,

20:21

that glass half full, half empty

20:23

debate is a tough one, and

20:25

everybody kind of has to approach that from where they

20:27

are. But I think the hope

20:29

is there'll be some progress out of this,

20:31

and that progress needs to accelerate. I

20:34

suppose you could say it's like that old

20:36

metaphor of the bicycle. You have to

20:38

keep making progress forwards, otherwise you fall

20:40

over. And certainly, touch wood

20:42

so far, it seems like that forward progress

20:45

is being maintained. Amy, what about you? What

20:47

would your one takeaway be? Well,

20:49

I think something a lot of people are probably

20:51

seeing when they turn on the TV or they

20:54

look at social media is just the extravagance of this.

20:57

And I know we talked about that in the beginning,

20:59

but I think it bears repeating because I understand

21:02

and I see the perspective of people who think

21:04

this has gotten a little bit out of hand.

21:07

But at the same time, the alternative is

21:10

people don't show up at all. Larry Fink doesn't

21:12

come, and Darren Woods doesn't

21:14

come. And ultimately,

21:17

we want people paying attention to this. We definitely

21:19

need to make sure there's no greenwashing, which

21:21

I'm sure there'll always be some. But I think even

21:24

if some of this can be cringe-worthy to

21:26

people observing a climate conference with all this

21:30

carbon-emitting activities, I think it's

21:33

ultimately part of perhaps

21:35

the inconvenient parts

21:37

of our capitalistic system to

21:39

finally start addressing it. Yeah, you

21:41

know, if I throw one more thought at it, and

21:44

I think cause for optimism is that I've covered

21:47

these things a long time. There was a time

21:49

when this climate diplomacy was kind of what drove

21:52

climate action. That's really no

21:54

longer, I don't think, the case. activity,

22:00

real people on the ground doing

22:02

real things. The energy transition is happening

22:05

in a big way now. Whatever

22:08

gets discussed here in some ways this could

22:11

help it, could maybe hinder it a little

22:13

bit, but the driving force very different than

22:15

10 years ago or 15 years ago is

22:17

really the is people on the ground, businesses,

22:20

governments actually doing things.

22:23

That's hope. Well that is a very

22:25

optimistic note to end on. I think you're right

22:27

about that actually Bill and I think it's great

22:29

to hear you put it like

22:31

that. This has been a great discussion to

22:33

open our coverage of COP28 for the Energy

22:35

Game. Thank you both very much indeed for

22:38

taking part of it and great hearing from

22:40

you. Thanks very much Amy. You're

22:42

very welcome. Great to be here in the Fluss. Absolutely,

22:44

yeah great to see you in person and do have

22:46

a safe trip home. Great to meet you

22:48

Bill and have a great conference.

22:51

Enjoy your time here for the rest of the

22:53

COP. Hope you're still going in another week or

22:55

so from now I know can get pretty grueling

22:57

got it. We'll check back in then and see

22:59

how it's going but yeah thanks for having me

23:01

out I really appreciate it. Thank you and Amy

23:03

we're going to be talking again next week once

23:05

the conference is over and rounding up everything that's

23:07

happened to COP28. So I look forward to talking

23:09

to you then and thanks

23:12

to you all very much indeed for listening. We'll

23:15

be back again very soon with all the

23:17

latest news and views from what's happening at

23:19

COP28. Until then goodbye