Better news on inflation has sent markets higher in the early weeks of 2023. The reopening of China has seen a strong performance from Asian markets, as the Government puts its zero-Covid strategy behind it. Easing supply chain bottlenecks and falling commodity prices are also improving risk appetite.

However, recession remains a plausible outcome for most of the world’s largest economies. Consumers and businesses need to adjust to higher costs and a tougher environment for borrowing. Against this backdrop, some caution is still warranted.   

Yield may prove an important factor in the year ahead. High-dividend companies are likely to be popular with nervous investors. They may gravitate to sectors such as energy, consumer staples and utilities, which all have high yields. Fixed income also has some appeal after a tough year.