0:00

You're listening to The Globalist, first broadcast on 4

0:02

April 2024 on Monocle Radio, The Globalist, in association

0:04

with UBS. Hello,

0:30

this is The Globalist broadcasting to you

0:32

live from Midori House in London. I'm

0:34

Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead... NATO

0:37

was founded on the single solemn

0:39

promise, an attack on one ally

0:41

is an attack on all. From

0:45

that foundation we have built the

0:47

most powerful and successful alliance in

0:49

history. As NATO celebrates its

0:52

75th anniversary, we'll ask about the

0:54

future of the military alliance. The

0:57

Philippines Navy say it's preparing for

0:59

the worst possible scenario in terms

1:01

of countering China's escalating aggression. We'll

1:03

unpack just exactly what that might

1:05

mean. As the civilian

1:08

death toll continues to rise in

1:10

Gaza, both Washington and Westminster are

1:12

coming under increasing pressure to stop

1:14

arms sales to Israel. We'll examine

1:16

the likelihood and the ramifications. Then...

1:19

If you think about buildings

1:21

as a place to bring

1:23

people together and create interactions,

1:26

sociability, happiness, productivity, I think

1:28

those are quite fundamental. We'll hear

1:30

from experts at McKinsey about the future

1:32

of our urban environment. We'll get the

1:35

latest economy and trade news, have a

1:37

hit of headlines from the world's front

1:39

pages and we'll end the show looking

1:41

back at the life of the Queen

1:43

of Caribbean Literature, Marisa Condé, Guadalupe's grand

1:46

storyteller, who's died aged 90. That's

1:49

all ahead here on The Globalist, live from

1:51

London. Look

2:00

at what else is happening in the

2:02

news. Russian drones hit high rise apartment

2:05

blocks in private homes early this morning

2:07

and huskies. Ukraine's second largest

2:09

city, killing at least four people,

2:12

Israeli war cabinet member Benny Guns

2:14

has caused the early elections piling

2:16

pressure on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's

2:18

and is increasingly unpopular right wing

2:20

coalition sons. The number of people

2:22

injured in Wednesday's seven point two

2:24

magnitude earthquake in East and Taiwan

2:27

has now climbed pass one thousand

2:29

two stations Monocle Radio to out

2:31

the day for. More. On the

2:33

stories that first. Also

2:35

face and more dangerous road the bond

2:38

between Europe and also Murdoch has never

2:40

been more important. Also

2:42

prepared for the storage summit in

2:45

Washington. Mates or continue to support

2:47

Ukraine will continue to spring thaw

2:49

lines and will continue to work

2:51

with our partners or across the

2:53

go for peace or for to.

2:56

Today April the fourth marks the

2:58

Seventy sixth anniversary of the Soundings.

3:00

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

3:02

native since yesterday, foreign ministers and

3:04

gathering at Nato headquarters in Brussels

3:07

for today me sing to mark

3:09

the anniversary and to prepare for

3:11

the upcoming Washington Summit in July.

3:13

The gathering and to lie some

3:15

is seen as crucial opportunities for

3:17

allies and partners to reinforce the

3:19

Alliance's unity, strength and resolve. So

3:21

they used come as well say

3:24

says a new and unprecedented era,

3:26

a strategic. Competition when I'm doing now

3:28

from Brussels by benefits of Bertie his the

3:30

head of policy planning in the office of

3:32

the Secretary General at nights has been as

3:34

as with was thrilled to have you on

3:37

the so it's against often birds as sexy

3:39

general made some public remarks before the start

3:41

of the meeting in Brussels. Lease has snatched

3:43

just as her a few moments ago. So

3:46

what else does he say. Good

3:49

morning and it's it's great to be

3:51

to be p Can't spell the Secretary

3:53

General yesterday an. address to

3:55

address depressed on the first day

3:58

of our today foreign minister and

4:00

essentially laid out what the agenda

4:02

is. And as you said, this

4:04

is an important milestone for the

4:06

Alliance, not just because of course

4:09

we're celebrating the 75th anniversary of

4:11

NATO, but also because ministers are

4:13

meeting to prepare the Washington

4:16

Summit that will take place

4:18

in July. Specifically, that means

4:20

discussing crucial issues

4:23

like how to increase

4:25

and strengthen NATO support

4:28

to Ukraine and planning

4:30

and ministers agree to start

4:32

looking into what additional steps

4:34

NATO may consider in terms

4:37

of coordination of assistance and training

4:39

support to Ukraine. Here are the

4:41

main message of course is how

4:44

do we put support for

4:46

Ukraine on a long-term sustainable

4:48

and sustained footing so

4:51

that Ukraine can exercise its right

4:53

to self-defence and so that we

4:55

convincingly and emphatically communicate to Moscow

4:58

that they cannot wear us out

5:00

in terms of our resolve

5:02

to continue supporting Ukraine. So that's

5:05

been an important issue on the

5:07

agenda for this Foreign Ministerial. Today,

5:11

just in a couple of hours,

5:14

ministers will meet in the

5:16

NATO-Ukraine Council format with Minister

5:18

Kuleba again to discuss

5:20

Ukraine's short and long-term needs and

5:22

to also look at the progress

5:24

that Ukraine is making in terms

5:26

of reforms again coming closer to

5:28

NATO politically and militarily. Then

5:31

in the afternoon, we will also have

5:33

a meeting with our Indo-Pacific partners again

5:36

to signal the importance of looking at

5:38

security through that global lens. So

5:41

we know that obviously NATO has recently expanded

5:43

and this is Sweden's first meeting as a

5:45

full NATO member. What does the country bring

5:47

to the Alliance in terms of defence capability?

5:50

Right. So indeed, this was yet another

5:52

reason why yesterday was yesterday and today

5:55

are a momentous occasion for us because

5:57

of course this is the first... ministerial

6:00

meeting with Sweden as a

6:03

full NATO ally. I think

6:05

with Sweden and Finland joining

6:07

the Alliance we gained two

6:10

highly capable militarily allies. We

6:13

were already cooperating with NATO very

6:15

very closely previously as partners so

6:17

there is a really seamless transition

6:19

here in terms of interoperability, ability

6:21

to work together, but of course

6:24

with Sweden and Finland we also

6:26

have for the first time all

6:28

of our Scandinavian allies under the

6:30

NATO umbrella and this of course

6:32

strengthens the defense of the

6:34

North and Europe, it becomes all

6:37

under secure areas of responsibility. In

6:40

addition I would say with both Finland and Sweden

6:42

we gain a lot in terms of understanding

6:44

and addressing resilience and how

6:47

to build resilience with our

6:49

populations. So overall the Secretary

6:51

General always says this makes

6:53

NATO stronger and Sweden and

6:55

Finland safer so it's really

6:57

a good development for the

6:59

Alliance. So we know that the USA

7:01

has always been key to the Alliance as he

7:04

said North America is very important but we also

7:06

know that Donald Trump is no fan. In

7:08

light of Trump's possible return to power

7:11

in Washington how can NATO Trump prove

7:13

for the future? Well

7:15

I would say that for us regardless

7:18

of who would win the presidential elections

7:20

the United States is and will remain

7:22

a strong and committed NATO

7:24

ally and that's very important to

7:26

reiterate and this I

7:28

think this is this this is the case

7:30

and will remain the case because a strong

7:33

transatlantic alliance and a strong and a strong

7:35

NATO is in the United States vital national

7:37

interest just like it is

7:39

in the vital national interest of all

7:41

allies but there are some things that

7:43

we need to do anyways and I

7:46

think that's what we're going to focus on

7:48

and one of them unsurprisingly is how do

7:50

we continue to improve when it comes to

7:52

burden sharing? How do we keep improving when

7:54

it comes to especially from

7:56

European allies in Canada to stand more in

7:58

defense and of course here we

8:00

are on a very positive trajectory going

8:03

from only three allies spending 2% just

8:07

a decade ago to now two-thirds

8:09

of the alliance projected to spend

8:11

the famous 2% of their

8:13

total GDP in defense. So I think that's

8:16

a very important element of how do you

8:18

build a future-proof

8:20

alliance, continue to invest in defense.

8:23

Similarly also the work we're doing

8:25

to contribute to

8:27

energize our defense industrial base on

8:30

a transatlantic level. So on both

8:32

sides of the Atlantic this remains

8:34

crucial and will remain crucial regardless

8:36

again with the presidential elections. And

8:38

finally I would say that the

8:40

work we're doing to really prepare

8:42

for a world of strategic competition,

8:44

so increasing our work on resilience,

8:46

countering disinformation, and malign interference, I

8:48

would say all of that is

8:51

also incredibly relevant. Again

8:53

regardless of the shift

8:56

in political wind. So I think we're just

8:58

building a stronger alliance based

9:00

on the fact that we live in a more

9:02

dangerous security environment. And I

9:04

mean the alliance's creation, of course

9:06

that was in the aftermath of the Second World

9:08

War, it was intended to serve

9:10

three purposes, deterring Soviet

9:13

expansionism, forbidding the revival

9:15

of nationalist militarism in

9:17

Europe through a strong North American

9:20

presence on the continent, and encouraging

9:22

European political integration. All of those things,

9:24

if you swap out Soviet for Russia,

9:26

are still continuing. How

9:29

are those aims still relevant and

9:32

how will you adapt to fit

9:34

this current global situation? Right,

9:36

so I think that's a really good point. Firstly

9:39

when it comes to deterring

9:43

conflict, preventing conflict for

9:46

allies, that remains the main purpose of

9:48

course of NATO and through enabling our

9:50

collective defence. And just like as you

9:53

said of course now there

9:55

has been unfortunately a series of

9:57

very negative developments that has

10:00

led us to identify the Russian Federation

10:02

as the most direct and strategic threat

10:04

to the alliance. So we are definitely,

10:06

that has led to a robust

10:09

reset of our deterrence and defense

10:11

posture that started, I would say,

10:13

around 10 years ago, following Russia's

10:15

illegal annexation of Crimea. And it's

10:17

still continuing to this day, but

10:19

of course, I would say today we're

10:21

in a much stronger position in terms

10:24

of having a credible deterrence and defense. So

10:26

that's going to be part and parcel of

10:28

how we continue to adapt. At

10:31

the same time, and as you mentioned,

10:33

NATO is also a political organization. And

10:36

it's always been about fostering

10:38

transatlantic convergence to deal with

10:41

shared challenges towards security. And

10:44

that was the Soviet Union in

10:46

the past that is the Russian threat

10:48

today, but it's not just Russia. Today,

10:50

we really also focus on countering

10:53

and protecting ourselves against the threat

10:55

of terrorism. And more

10:57

and more, we're also looking

11:00

at challenges, including from

11:02

the PRC, which is for a

11:04

systemic strategic competitor. So I think

11:07

NATO is remaining absolutely faithful

11:10

to its mandate of ensuring collective

11:12

defense. But we're doing it in

11:15

a world in which really we

11:17

need to simultaneously prepare for multiple

11:19

challenges across domains and theaters. So

11:21

I think that's very much our

11:24

driving principle and have been for

11:26

the past few years. Benadessa, thank

11:28

you very much indeed. That's Benadessa

11:30

Berti from NATO there. And this

11:32

is The Globalist. It

11:45

is 1411 in Manila, 7-11 here in London. The

11:49

Philippines and China have had a series

11:51

of maritime run-ins that have triggered concern

11:54

about an escalation at sea. China

11:56

claims almost the entire South China Sea as

11:59

its territory. police by an armada

12:01

of coast guard vessels, some more than 1,000

12:04

kilometres from its mainland. The

12:06

Philippines National Security Council emphasises the

12:08

need to exhaust all diplomatic measures

12:10

to resolve the issues, but a

12:12

senior officer says the Navy is

12:15

prepared for the worst case scenario.

12:17

Well, I'm joined now from Manila by

12:19

Richard Hidarin, who's an academic and a

12:21

columnist for the Philippine Daily Enquirer. Richard,

12:24

it's lovely to have you back

12:26

on the show. The current argument

12:28

concerns resupply of the BRP Sierra

12:30

Madre. That's the grounded ship

12:32

on the 2nd Thomas Shoal. It's been there

12:35

since 1999. Can you just

12:37

give us some background on that? Well,

12:41

as you may know, the 2nd Thomas

12:43

Shoal are called Ayunghoon Shoal in the

12:45

Philippines. It's a low-side elevation, so it's

12:47

not an island or rock capable

12:50

of generating its own maritime zones. It's

12:52

not a territory to be claimed. So,

12:55

legally speaking, it's an extension of the

12:57

Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and this was

12:59

confirmed by the Arbitration Award under

13:01

the United Nations Convention of the Sink 2016.

13:04

Now, back in the 1990s,

13:07

the Philippines was a

13:09

traumatised country. The American bases had just

13:11

left earlier in the decade, and

13:14

the Chinese, just a few years later on, seized

13:18

the Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef, which

13:20

is also within the Philippines' exclusive

13:23

economic zone. So, in a desperate

13:25

effort to make sure that the

13:27

situation doesn't further deteriorate because the Philippines back

13:29

then really didn't have much of the capabilities

13:32

on its own, essentially

13:34

what it did was it grounded the

13:37

World War II vessel, BRP Sierra Madre,

13:39

and then placed a number of Marines

13:41

there to guard the area because they

13:43

were very fearful the Chinese will move

13:46

into that area. So

13:49

from 1999 onwards, that rusty,

13:52

tetanus-friendly kind of

13:55

grounded vessel has served as

13:57

a de facto Base in

13:59

the area. Predicted lot idol have a

14:01

son but the reality is that over time.

14:04

Or. It was giving wade was giving in

14:06

to the elements and or what are fears

14:08

that. Are. You know, by the

14:10

end of the two thousand and ten

14:12

it is, It was just gonna collapse

14:14

on it's own. So the Philippines was

14:16

looking at efforts not only to resupply

14:19

the marion our troops there, but also

14:21

to Forty Five that odd that sleep.

14:23

I mean, maybe the outside doesn't look

14:25

as good, but the inside may have.

14:28

Gotten. Better it's internet now these because of

14:30

those. Fortification. Efforts. But.

14:33

Trainer allegedly made at the gentleman's

14:35

agreement a secret deal with the

14:37

former president the Philippines to get

14:39

detect a very pro try now

14:41

very anti western leader and according

14:43

to the deal the Philippines was

14:45

not supposed or. Or

14:48

to fly our our our the fuck to

14:50

be seen the area and that is now

14:52

a bone of contention. Fine as saying. We

14:55

made an agreement and now were violating that

14:57

by supplying. Are merging stare on

14:59

and more regular basis but more importantly

15:01

forty find that feature the Philippines maintains

15:03

including porn prison for marketshare that no

15:05

such in was make. It

15:08

any favorite were made it is not binding

15:10

was as a secret deal a gentlemen's agreement

15:12

deal and to be honest right now are

15:14

openly questions about what are treason or thought.

15:16

Was. Committed by the former administration

15:18

and therefore investigations should proceed in

15:20

that regard. As answer

15:23

just looking at these remarks by

15:25

the than the navy ssl he

15:27

talks about the worst case scenario.

15:29

what would that be. Where.

15:33

I think we're we're you know

15:35

And honestly there is of course

15:37

the spread of unwanted escalation to

15:39

casino for a long time trying

15:41

as than relying on a socalled

15:43

graze on strategy many using militia

15:45

non lethal force the intimidate. it's

15:48

smaller neighbors but the most recent event the

15:50

what are telling about a third in just

15:52

a few months was almost lethal because you

15:54

know do in the pressure of the waters

15:56

of so strong in if is it someone

15:58

directly or that person something else like

16:00

a medal or something, it could

16:03

be actually lethal and multiple Filipino servicemen

16:05

were injured. So obviously, you

16:07

know, there are many the Philippines who want to

16:10

do something more aggressively and it's saying that the

16:12

Chinese are warning that this could be just the

16:14

beginning of something even scarier and that's why the

16:16

Philippines and United States have been having some serious

16:19

discussion on whether the Philippines should invoke its mutual

16:21

defense treaty with the Americans. But in my opinion,

16:23

it's also important not to be alarmist. I think

16:25

China is trying to engage in

16:28

a psychological warfare. It's trying to impose its

16:30

will but China also is worried that the

16:32

United States may be dragged into this conflict

16:34

and that is not going to end up

16:36

well for anyone for that matter. And as

16:38

far as the Philippines is concerned, I mean,

16:41

a lot of these incidents involved Philippine

16:43

military either hiring some private small boat

16:45

to do the resupply missions so that

16:48

it doesn't look too provocative. But

16:50

it's not like the Philippines doesn't have its own warships

16:53

and the Philippines is also exploring joint patrols

16:55

if not joint resupply missions with some of

16:57

its allies and friends in the area. So

16:59

I think there are a whole range of

17:01

options still available for the

17:03

Philippines in order to make sure that

17:06

it stands its

17:08

ground and China will be forced to eventually recognize

17:10

that the Philippines is not a pushover. You

17:13

mentioned the mutual defense treaty that was signed

17:15

back in the 50s. Just tell us more

17:17

about that. Is it likely that the Philippines

17:20

might invoke it and would the US then come

17:22

to its aid? Yeah, absolutely.

17:25

So the 1951 mutual defense

17:27

treaty that came on the

17:29

heels of the end of World War II and

17:31

the San Francisco Treaty among others. And

17:34

back then the Philippines did not control

17:36

a lot of these land features that

17:38

it currently controls. And back then, to

17:40

be honest, barely anyone controlled. The Imperial

17:42

Japanese forces which had occupied those areas

17:44

in the Second World War had

17:48

occupied them, have moved out of that. So

17:50

the understanding of the Americans is that the mutual

17:52

defense treaty applies to the archipelagic

17:55

territories of

17:57

the Philippines proper, not necessarily

17:59

the... the areas that it

18:01

claims. The Philippines maintains that since

18:03

the Spanish era and

18:06

before the Filipinos

18:08

have been exercising all sorts of controls, administrative historical

18:10

control over a lot of these land features

18:12

and later on of course when the United Nations

18:14

Convention of the Sea was being negotiated, the Philippines

18:17

was also claiming a lot of this feature

18:19

as an extension of the Excellutes economic zone. So

18:21

you had for half a century you

18:23

had this kind of a serious

18:25

situation where the Philippines would

18:28

push its claim and then the

18:30

Americans would equivocate. In fact the

18:32

Americans had this so-called strategic ambiguity

18:34

strategy from the

18:36

Nixon administration all the

18:38

way to the Obama administration and

18:40

things only changed during the Trump

18:43

administration particularly in 2019 when

18:45

the American Secretary of State back then

18:48

Pompeii and it visited the Netherlands said the mutual

18:50

defense treaty would apply to any attack on Philippine

18:52

troops vessels and aircrafts in

18:54

the South China Sea and by extension

18:57

that will apply to Philippine troops position

18:59

on some of these disputed land features like

19:01

the Ayung in Seoul and Second Thomas Seoul.

19:03

So it has been a kind of a

19:05

jiu-jitsu between the Philippines and

19:08

its ally for quite some time and

19:10

I think the Americans realized that their

19:12

strategic ambiguity approach is more ambiguous than

19:14

strategic because China read that as essentially

19:17

Americans staying away and

19:19

once China realized that it can impose its

19:21

will it proceeded but now I think America

19:23

is realizing that in the end this

19:25

could end up bad for everyone because you don't want

19:27

the South China Sea becoming a Chinese lake. Now

19:31

we know that China is a hugely

19:33

important trading partner with the Philippines and

19:35

I just wonder how the economic and

19:37

political relationships balance out in the end

19:39

in the event of a

19:42

threatened worst case scenario what would happen

19:44

to trade? Well

19:46

I mean that's the thing you can say about any

19:48

country right I mean China is also a major trading

19:51

part of the United States But the

19:53

reality is, as far as the Philippines is concerned,

19:55

among its neighbors, it's the least dependent country on

19:57

China. And to be honest, I think China is

19:59

perhaps even more. We depend on the Philippines

20:01

where a massive export market for them

20:03

In the region, we import way more

20:05

from China than China. Ah explained. done

20:08

exporting to China and the La Crosse

20:10

wi input from China probably get imported

20:12

from elsewhere including from Vietnam and salford

20:14

potter neighbors. And.you know this. the Philippines

20:16

also explores a lot of rare earths,

20:19

materials on and nickel and very important

20:21

minerals. The trying to nice for self

20:23

is high in productions saunas. In the

20:25

Philippines of the com. Rescission.

20:28

Is what I to fill it. Issued,

20:30

overleveraged, saw his expert materials to China.

20:32

If ever China wants to escalate the

20:34

situation and let's not forget China has

20:36

been intimidating many countries in the region,

20:38

particular Australia in recent years with economic

20:41

sanctions and eventually relented. In. There's

20:43

this history where by training poses

20:45

it's wheel when you're allowed. It

20:48

imposes we'll But if you stand your ground as

20:50

the Australians have done in recent years as the

20:52

Vietnamese of them for a thousand years and to

20:54

live in the been the case of Indonesia, Malaysia

20:56

and your own disputes with China. China.

20:58

Eventually, blink armed net forever That

21:00

at least it's it's willing to

21:02

reluctantly respect you if you are

21:05

willing to respect yourself and. Underground

21:07

and because you have success of detective with

21:10

actually off that a sign of profits I

21:12

think the Chinese are still still struggling to

21:14

accept the new reality developments which is a

21:16

we also our own national dignity and we're

21:18

going to fight for sovereign rights and that's

21:21

why we are in this very dangerous chicken

21:23

game we see right now as of Tennessee

21:25

which to thank you very much since he

21:27

has her sit her down. To

21:30

come in, the programmers developers continues

21:32

to work to bring people back

21:34

into city centres. We hear the

21:36

approaches Global consultancy Some Mckinsey, One.

21:38

My client's house was phrase rounds on earning

21:41

the commute. I really like Drop. What do

21:43

I need to do to persuade people is

21:45

worth spending half an hour. An hour is

21:48

an hour and a half to come into

21:50

the space from what are they gonna get

21:52

from us and it's elevator for thinking from

21:54

really i just being a cost to being

21:57

outside to leave out of business productivity business

21:59

performance. this. Reverberated are. You

22:06

going on in the global financial

22:08

services firms with over one hundred

22:10

and his a separatist rebels Only

22:12

you nice shot. A case of

22:14

our. Future. Will bring fresh

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22:18

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22:21

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22:23

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22:27

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22:37

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22:39

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22:42

Ryans difference seen. In the

22:44

fellas with Cbs every week for the

22:46

latest insight and the police in the

22:48

piano fool around the world. This

22:59

is that herbalist on a monocle ready at

23:01

the time. Now in London is seven Twenty

23:03

three and the going to continue with city's

23:06

new status. Study me here in the studios

23:08

correspondent campaign across from Caucasus. Welcome cousin thank

23:10

you very much as he gets to be

23:12

as I think of her son used on

23:15

the say this I'm very honored that subset

23:17

of least a week and very interested to

23:19

get your take on one of the stories.

23:22

leads reporting are headlines today which. Is

23:24

this receive drone attacks? On Hot

23:26

That happened as a nice Reuters is

23:28

reporting it, but it's now popping up

23:30

or all over the place at. What's

23:32

the detail on that? Yeah, I think

23:34

I'm given the sort. Of. Coverage will sort

23:36

of is today of the of the

23:39

Nato Alliance anniversary and the importance. Of

23:41

kind of his role and unstable world and

23:43

then you've got this incident over nine hockey

23:45

really kind of point since his to one

23:47

of the situations as things so ongoing so

23:49

that was a drone attack last night. On

23:52

a high rise apartment block

23:54

and some private houses. And

23:57

we know. That and for people

23:59

with. Now, one of

24:01

those was an aid worker who had gone

24:03

to respond to the first incident and then

24:05

was hit in a second strike. And of course,

24:08

the kind of grave danger that aid workers

24:10

put themselves in all over the

24:12

world has been highlighted so much

24:14

this week with the separate incident

24:16

in Gaza. So that's what

24:18

we know at the moment. And

24:20

of course, yesterday Finland became the latest

24:23

NATO country to sign its security deal

24:25

with Ukraine. President Zelensky

24:27

saying Russia is planning to mobilize 300,000 extra troops by

24:29

June. So

24:32

trying to kind of up the rhetoric

24:34

there and then overnight this awful drone

24:36

attack. Again, shedding light on the

24:39

role of aid workers as well. And

24:41

there's a lot of concern in Ukraine that

24:43

city districts could be hit by power cuts.

24:46

Russia seems to be targeting electrical infrastructure. Yes,

24:48

that's definitely been the way things have

24:50

been happening recently. I mean, we know that

24:52

this is often a tactic used in conflict.

24:54

And yeah, President Zelensky highlighting that too. I

24:57

think what's really interesting looking at this coverage and this

24:59

coverage too of what's happening in Gaza, less

25:01

so in Gaza because we're not getting quite

25:04

so much footage. But these are conflicts

25:06

that we can watch actually physically ourselves

25:08

from thousands of miles away. Yeah,

25:11

it's unusual isn't it? I mean, it's just the way

25:13

the world has shifted now. But I

25:15

mean, in Gaza, we get that view in one respect.

25:17

And yet on the other hand, of course, journalists not

25:19

being allowed in to give those eyewitness accounts, which

25:21

is so important kind

25:23

of balance and getting the whole story. So in

25:25

some ways on social media, etc, you might get

25:28

pictures like we've seen of that aid convoy. But

25:30

then on the other hand, you're not getting the

25:32

eyewitness accounts from journalists. Let's go

25:34

to Japan now and the Japan Times with this extraordinary

25:36

story about a man arrested over death threats to

25:38

Nintendo. Yeah, I picked this up because I thought it

25:40

was a really interesting is this interesting that this

25:42

had been happening. I'd never heard about it. Apparently,

25:47

a 27 year old man has been arrested for sending death

25:49

threats to the to the games company Nintendo, as you say,

25:52

according to the Japanese Times, he

25:54

had confessed to sending 39

25:57

messages via online inquiry for

26:00

on the company's website, threatening to

26:02

kill people, the

26:04

gaming tournament and other events that

26:07

Nintendo was hosting. And of course, these events then had to be

26:09

kind of postponed or

26:11

cancelled altogether. And the company's saying that's sort

26:13

of had a big kind of financial impact

26:15

on it. But yeah, just an interesting one.

26:18

The gamers amongst your listeners may be aware

26:20

of some of these events being cancelled because

26:22

they are really quite a big deal. Yeah.

26:24

And no idea why he was moved to

26:26

do this. No, I mean, apparently, according to

26:28

Ken to the reports, he worked in a

26:30

local zoo and I think the sort

26:32

of inferences that it was some

26:34

sort of, you know, malicious communication, but

26:37

obviously that's being investigated now. Well,

26:39

another investigation going on this time in La

26:41

Havre. Tell us about the story. Yeah,

26:44

the Le Monde and Politico have

26:46

been reporting that La Havre town

26:48

hall in France was being raided

26:50

by police as part of an

26:52

investigation into the city's mayor, Eduard

26:54

Philippe. Now he's accused of harassment

26:56

and misusing public funds, which is

26:58

something that he's denying. Prosecutors

27:01

have been, it's a bit complicated, but prosecutors have

27:03

been investigating a deal linked to

27:05

the running of La Havre innovation center.

27:09

Now, the reason this is interesting and the

27:11

reason it's getting a bit of attention is

27:13

because he's widely considered to be a likely

27:15

contender for the

27:18

2027 presidential contest in

27:20

France. So, you know, a lot of eyes on

27:22

him, but it

27:25

sounds like from the report that the person making this

27:27

claim against him was some sort of

27:30

possibly some disgruntled ex-employee. So, there's a

27:32

lot to unpack here. We don't quite

27:34

know what's going on, but he's

27:36

in the midst of this kind of under

27:38

the spotlight, I suppose, with this police investigation.

27:40

Well, one way to disgruntled employees

27:42

is to contact them outside of

27:45

working hours. Now, California is considering making

27:47

this illegal. And I just, before

27:49

we talk about that, I mean, you and I

27:51

both work in media. I was talking to the

27:53

producer of this program at 10 o'clock last night

27:56

and, you know, and then she would have had

27:58

every right to contact me. 4.30

28:01

this morning too. I love this story because it

28:03

doesn't really speak to the kind of modern times

28:05

does it in terms of you're right I mean

28:07

we're 24-7 you get WhatsApp messages etc etc especially

28:12

if you when you live in a global world you have

28:14

friends all over the world or colleagues all over the world

28:16

but I suppose there is an important point here which is

28:18

that it can be exhausting to have to be on

28:21

all the time answering messages all the time

28:23

so yeah this is a lawmaker in California

28:25

who wants to make it illegal for your

28:27

boss to contact you outside of your normal

28:29

working hours unless it's an emergency or about

28:31

your working schedule they're calling it

28:33

the legal right to disconnect I only wish I

28:36

could do that with my kids too sometimes

28:38

as well and actually what

28:40

they're suggesting is a $100 fine

28:43

per offence apparently there's

28:45

already similar laws in places like

28:47

Canada, Australia, Portugal and

28:50

there's been some research into this apparently which says

28:53

that more than half of us respond to messages

28:55

outside of our working hours from our employer I

28:57

mean that doesn't surprise me at all. I mean it's

29:00

also what field you're in isn't it I

29:02

mean in media you have to be

29:04

available if you've got live shows. Yeah

29:06

and you know when situations are changing I mean there

29:08

must be so many companies I think one of the

29:11

things they're pointing out with this is that it's partly

29:13

post Covid with the kind

29:15

of you know the way we use tech

29:17

now in our homes and we've constantly got you

29:19

know Zoom or FaceTime or WhatsApp it's

29:22

made us all contactable all the time in

29:24

a way that perhaps we weren't previously and

29:27

a way that we've come to see it as acceptable in

29:29

a way we didn't previously and maybe there does need

29:31

to be a bit of a redressing of the balance.

29:33

Yeah just before you go there's a lovely story in

29:35

the New York Times and it's about two guys who

29:37

know a good stick when they see one they've

29:40

built a sizeable online community

29:42

by critically reviewing sticks. You

29:45

know what I'm here for that? Me too. My kids would be

29:47

as well and you know they're often

29:49

come back from a walk with sticks in hand which

29:52

get piled up outside the front door so you

29:54

know I can understand he's probably found quite a

29:56

niche area but one that he's not alone in.

29:58

Exactly. Catherine take this. Thank you very

30:00

much indeed, Catherine Carpenter. Now, here's

30:02

what else we're keeping an eye on today. Russian

30:07

drones hit high-rise apartment blocks and private

30:09

homes early this morning in Hakeef, Ukraine's

30:12

second largest city, killing at least

30:14

four people, including rescue workers, in

30:17

a repeat strike at the site of one

30:19

attack, officials said. Israeli

30:21

War Cabinet member Benny Gantz has

30:23

called for early elections, piling pressure

30:25

on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and

30:27

his increasingly unpopular right-wing coalition. Netanyahu,

30:30

Israel's longest-serving prime minister,

30:32

has repeatedly ruled out early elections,

30:35

which opinion polls suggest he would lose.

30:38

And the number of people injured

30:40

in Wednesday's 7.2 magnitude earthquake in

30:42

eastern Taiwan has now climbed past

30:45

1,000, though the death toll remains

30:47

steady at nine. The shape was

30:49

the strongest in the region in 25 years. This

30:53

is The Globalist. Stay tuned. Israel

31:04

is facing accusations its violated international

31:06

humanitarian law in its war with

31:08

Hamas in Gaza. Health officials

31:10

in Gaza say at least 32,845 Palestinians have been killed,

31:15

many of them civilians. Despite

31:18

the fact that senior US officials have

31:20

criticised Israel over the high civilian death

31:22

toll, Washington gives 3.8 billion

31:25

in annual military assistance to Israel,

31:27

and the administration has so far

31:29

resisted calls to condition any arms

31:32

transfers. And it's also considering an

31:34

$18 billion arms transfer package that

31:36

would include dozens of S-15 aircraft.

31:39

Here in the UK, the government is

31:41

also under pressure to stop arming the

31:43

country, with objections mounting up following the

31:46

death of seven humanitarian aid workers. Well,

31:48

joining me is Yossi Mechelberg, who's associate

31:51

fellow at Chatham House and a lecturer

31:53

in international relations at the University of

31:55

Roe-Hunt. And lovely to have you back in

31:57

the studio. Yossi, as you say, yet another fun

31:59

conversation. I

32:03

wonder if you could give us more

32:05

detail on Washington's arms arrangements with Israel

32:07

and the further deal that's being considered.

32:10

I think when we hear

32:12

about the possibility of limiting

32:15

selling rounds from different countries

32:17

in Canada, Japan, Spain and

32:19

some other countries already stop

32:21

supply, the main supply

32:25

of weapons in A is the United States, around 70%.

32:28

Germany is around 30%. So

32:31

if you look at what can have

32:33

influence, you're looking at the United States,

32:36

in the case of Germany is mainly

32:38

submarine. So the United States is, the

32:40

rest is more symbolic. But

32:43

at the same time, it's also to strike

32:45

a balance. No one wants to

32:47

weaken is to the point because we saw

32:49

what happened in October 7. We

32:51

know we see what happened in the border with Lebanon,

32:55

the Hezbollah, that has more than

32:58

100,000, probably 150,000 targets in Israel and

33:03

already targeting towns and cities

33:05

and villages in Israel. So

33:08

in the grand scheme of things, you want an

33:10

Israel that is strong enough also to balance Iran.

33:13

But at the same time, you don't want

33:15

to allow Israel to use this weapon

33:17

to do what it does right

33:20

now in Gaza. And

33:23

I'll give just one example. There is

33:25

a bomb that is MK84. I know

33:27

it's very boring, all these details, but

33:29

it's one ton bomb and can

33:32

flatten a block of

33:34

flats easily when it's doped by

33:36

an airplane. And

33:38

it's used in Gaza, and it has been used

33:40

in Gaza. So you can make

33:43

some provisions when you supply,

33:45

oh, I don't stop supplying this

33:47

kind of weapons, or make provisions,

33:49

conditions that you can't use it

33:51

in center under certain circumstances. And

33:53

this is missing in the relations

33:55

between Israel and the United States

33:57

when it comes to supply. the

33:59

supply of weapon and it needs

34:01

to change and actually until the

34:03

war in Gaza, I can't say

34:06

that Israel always used

34:08

it responsibly and sensibly,

34:10

but what we see right now, when

34:13

the ICJ talks about a plausible

34:15

risk of a genocide, this is

34:17

changing the game. What

34:20

about the UK? What do we supply and is

34:22

that going to change? The government is coming under

34:24

a lot of pressure. Let's put it in

34:26

context. You just mentioned 18

34:28

billion. The UK supply

34:30

system, which was according to

34:32

the defense minister, only recently in parliament,

34:34

that is 42 million pounds. This

34:39

is very small. We are talking more about

34:41

the symbolic side, the same way that,

34:44

for instance, the Netherlands decided, or the

34:46

quarter actually, order the government not to

34:48

supply parts for F-35. It's

34:51

more symbolic. It's more a political stand.

34:54

We don't want to associate ourselves

34:56

as European countries with

34:59

what is happening in Gaza because

35:01

the Security

35:03

Council calls for a ceasefire, but

35:05

then the United States says it's

35:07

un-binding, and 10 days later, the

35:10

war is still raging. When

35:12

aid workers are killed,

35:15

when humanitarian aid is

35:17

not entering. I think we

35:19

also need to mention that there are

35:21

still hostages in the hands of Hamas

35:23

and Islamic Jihad, and this

35:26

is separately negotiated. There are

35:28

violations of human rights all

35:31

around. But when we go to the

35:33

level of, as I suggested, there is

35:35

a risk of genocide.

35:39

When the killing

35:41

is ongoing, there is a

35:43

risk of starvation, if not already

35:45

starvation. Then countries need to

35:47

make a stand and try to make

35:50

Israel to see sense because I think what

35:52

happened in this war, Israel

35:54

entering this war in the way that no

35:57

country should enter, with more

35:59

will to... for revenge and

36:01

rage than strategic thinking. It's

36:04

never a good way to enter a

36:06

war and even worse, no

36:08

exit strategy. So this can rage. It's

36:10

an open-ended war with more and more

36:13

casualties as a result of it. And

36:15

I think what we see when the arms supply, it's

36:18

a way to pressurize Israel, but

36:20

also probably Israel to save itself

36:22

from itself. And is it

36:24

the responsibility of other countries to halt their arms

36:26

deals in order to assist peaceful

36:28

resolution of conflict? But

36:31

yeah, first and foremost, we can talk about

36:34

the arms deal generally. As a

36:36

bit, you know, when there is money,

36:39

some people will supply weapons. And we

36:41

know that as much as for instance,

36:43

post-1945, everyone talked about

36:45

nuclear weapons and the

36:47

proliferation of nuclear weapons,

36:50

most people killed in conflicts were by

36:52

AK-47s and other small arms. There is

36:55

a real

36:57

issue of proliferation of the availability

36:59

of arms. You know,

37:01

President Eisenhower already in 1960

37:04

warned about the power

37:07

of the army industry in the United

37:09

States and as well as the historic

37:12

policies. You know, we are talking

37:14

more than 60 years later and if it's

37:16

even worse because it's created jobs.

37:18

Even if the United States, if you

37:20

look at the issue of when you

37:23

make conditions when it comes to the

37:25

supply of weapons, this is a huge

37:27

industry. So on the one

37:29

hand, there is pressure on President Biden

37:32

to at least limit the supply of

37:35

weapons. On the other, from the arms

37:37

industry, it makes more money.

37:39

It creates more jobs. So there is

37:41

a counter pressure to do that too. I

37:44

think what happens right now in God, but it's

37:46

not. It's what happened in Ukraine, what happened in

37:48

Ethiopia, what happened in other places

37:50

in the world, should

37:52

make us think about all the issues

37:54

of conflict and deal with root causes

37:57

of conflict and what the

37:59

arm industry is. does actually to

38:01

encourage conflict and the

38:03

result of it the loss of many innocent lives. Josie,

38:06

thank you very much indeed. That's Josie Meckleberg there.

38:08

You're with Monocle Radio. Now,

38:16

the future of our urban environments is

38:19

a wide-ranging issue that spans economic, climate

38:21

and societal corners of the globe. As

38:24

developers, investors and tenants alike

38:26

push for more sustainable buildings

38:29

and for decarbonisation, those

38:31

tasked with building our future cities have

38:33

a busy time ahead to ensure we're

38:35

doing it right. One

38:37

such firm is global consultancy group,

38:39

McKinsey, who are working to

38:41

make buildings more valuable by making our

38:44

urban environment more sustainable. This

38:46

was the starting point for a conversation

38:48

between Monocle's editor-in-chief, Andrew Tuck and

38:50

McKinsey's Ben Dimson and Jules Barker.

38:53

Andrew began by asking Ben about the

38:55

push and pull they face when tackling

38:58

this scenario. We're in a

39:00

moment of really profound structural and cyclical

39:02

change happening at the same time. So

39:04

on the cyclical side, you've got sort

39:06

of interest rates, you've got inflation. On

39:09

the structural side, you've got a change of

39:11

expectations, the way buildings are used. You've

39:14

got a change of making buildings much

39:16

more about the operations and about customer's

39:18

interest today. It's really a moment in

39:21

time where a lot of the investors

39:23

operate to rethink what they do

39:25

and what their purpose is and how they add value. We

39:28

talk about profitable decarbonisation. What we

39:30

mean by that is really

39:32

systematic, thoughtful interventions about

39:35

green energy supply, often

39:37

generated on-site through

39:39

things like solar panels, ground and air source

39:42

heat pumps, and then demand reduction interventions. And

39:44

much of that can actually be done

39:47

in a positive way that makes money.

39:49

Now, not all of it can and

39:51

not every building is suitable. So there's

39:53

definitely some buildings that are structurally challenged.

39:56

Some of those are ripe for conversion, but not

39:58

every building will be. It creates

40:00

opportunity as well. There's an

40:02

upside within rental premia, for

40:04

example, within lower insurance

40:07

costs, within access to green

40:09

financing, increased demand

40:11

from occupiers. So there's two

40:14

sides to this. There's an all sort of

40:16

downside mitigation. There's upside opportunities there as well.

40:18

Jules, in terms, when we look at closer

40:20

to home, you know the London market very

40:22

well. Could you tell us a little bit

40:24

when it begins to boil down to a

40:26

city, what kinds of impacts it has, what

40:28

kinds of stories you're seeing unfolding in the

40:30

market? Much of the answer to this is that

40:33

all these decisions are coming much, much more hyper-local.

40:35

So we're moving to a world where it's less

40:37

about finding what is the city doing versus the

40:39

West End, but there are really specific micro

40:41

opportunities to be found everywhere. As you were asking

40:44

earlier, you know, who's going back into the market?

40:46

When do you go back into the market? There

40:48

are opportunities out there, but you have to be

40:51

better than you were before to be able to

40:53

capture it. You know, in a world where there

40:55

isn't quantitative easing going on, where rates are going

40:58

up, you have to be much, much faster, better

41:00

informed to find and target the right opportunities,

41:02

but then you also have to operate them

41:04

in a way that you perhaps didn't have

41:07

to quite so much before. So as Ben

41:09

was saying, we're moving from the world where

41:11

going from just being investors to having to

41:13

be investors and operators to really, because of

41:15

the need to decarbonize and to improve assets,

41:18

going to be investors and operators and developers

41:20

all at the same time. And so success

41:22

is less about, is now the time for

41:24

London? Is it West End? Is it the

41:26

city? And more about where is

41:29

the specific asset when it comes

41:31

to market, identifying it and jumping on

41:33

it and knowing how you as

41:36

an investor operator developer are going to turn

41:38

that into value. Tell us about some of

41:40

the micro trends in London, because we've spoken

41:42

to developers across the last year. So things

41:44

like we were betting on the tech players

41:46

even 18 months ago, they're changing how they're

41:48

working. Maybe they don't want the floor space

41:51

anymore. They're renting offices that maybe they can

41:53

get like a quarter of their staff in

41:55

on an average day. And those

41:57

ones are in London and now thinking about

41:59

maybe. to be in the West End

42:01

actually rather than in some silicon roundabout. Even

42:03

there there's been a shift in what people

42:05

did. Are you seeing those small shifts in

42:07

every industry where life sciences want to be,

42:10

where tech wants to be, where real estate

42:12

wants to be? Can you sniff out some

42:14

of those trends as you look at the

42:16

city? Talking about the different types of operators

42:18

is really key to this. Historically, you could

42:20

develop an office in a fairly generic sense,

42:22

lease it out for 10, 15

42:25

years, put a lick of paint on it and

42:27

lease it out in a similarly generic sense for

42:29

another 10, 15 years and it sort of

42:31

didn't matter who you were leasing it to.

42:33

Now as a developer and as an operator,

42:35

you need to really understand who your target

42:37

market is for that office because a life

42:39

sciences operator, to use your example, wants something

42:42

completely different from a bank, who wants something

42:44

completely different from a tech company. And this

42:46

is again putting a lot of pressure on

42:48

the industry because in a world where you're

42:50

now leasing stuff for more like five years

42:52

than 15 years, when after that leasing break

42:55

and you have a new tenant, they're likely

42:57

to want a very different make up of

42:59

office. That's putting increasing pressure on the

43:01

refurb Catholic cycle as well. You're in

43:03

a fascinating world where there's hard

43:05

economics on one side and then there's how

43:08

people behave, there's sentiment and there's harder

43:10

to judge things on the other side. You

43:12

mentioned earlier that actually there are lots of

43:14

places where retail is thriving. What are

43:16

the social trends that you're seeing kind of

43:19

bump into your macroeconomic trends? If you

43:21

look across the different asset classes, people are

43:23

still people that enjoy social interaction, don't want

43:25

to do everything on a video screen.

43:27

And so if you think about

43:29

buildings as a place to

43:31

bring people together and create

43:34

interactions, social ability, happiness, productivity,

43:36

I think those are quite

43:38

fundamental. And what I think has

43:40

happened coming out of the pandemic is everyone

43:42

has been a bit more thoughtful around what

43:44

those attributes are and how you generate them.

43:47

So whether that's been sort of co-living examples

43:49

where you have social spaces that people interact,

43:52

whether that is in offices where

43:54

they're really rethinking why there

43:56

is an office and the purpose of it. One of

43:58

my clients has this phrase arounds an office. earning

44:00

the commute and I really like that. What

44:02

do I need to do to persuade people

44:04

it's worth spending half an hour an hour

44:06

even hour and a half to come into

44:08

this space and what are they going to

44:10

get from it and it's elevated the thinking

44:12

from real estate just being a cost to

44:14

being actually a key lever of business

44:17

productivity and business performance. Ben

44:20

Demerson there and earlier Jules Barker from

44:22

McKinsey in conversation with Monocles Andrew Tuck. This

44:25

is The Globalist on Monocle Radio. UBS

44:32

has over 900 investment analysts from over 100

44:35

different countries. Over

44:39

900 of the sharpest minds and

44:41

freshest thinkers in the world of finance

44:43

today. To find out how

44:45

we could help you, visit us at ubs.com.

44:56

Well it's time now to talk trade and

44:59

economy with economist and former joint head of

45:01

the UK government's economic service Vicky Price who

45:03

joins us down the line now. Good morning to

45:05

you Vicky. Good morning. So we're

45:07

looking at slightly higher than anticipated inflation

45:09

and jobs in the last couple of

45:12

months. How is that influencing the Fed,

45:14

the Federal Reserve? We've heard

45:16

from the head in a power just

45:19

yesterday and he was

45:21

being cautious but in fact he

45:23

didn't say exactly what you're suggesting

45:26

that both inflation at about

45:28

3.2% and jobs

45:31

growth has been slightly higher than

45:33

had been thought to be

45:35

the case but there are therefore

45:37

risks still on the inflation outlook

45:39

but nevertheless what he was

45:41

hinting at is that he and the other

45:44

members of the committee that are going

45:46

to decide their interest rates were probably

45:49

inclined to see still a cut coming

45:51

through pretty soon

45:53

but of course everyone expects that maybe

45:55

not before June which

45:58

is what the markets have been anticipating. really for

46:00

quite some time. So he was cautiously

46:03

hinting that things were moving

46:06

towards normalization in interest

46:08

rates, which is good news. The

46:10

markets, of course, have, as I said, anticipated but

46:12

have already adjusted yields in a

46:14

certain way. And we've seen that, of course, being

46:16

reflected everywhere. For the

46:18

world as a whole, what happens in

46:20

the US and what decisions the

46:22

Fed makes are

46:25

very important, really, because the others are

46:27

going to follow. So we're expecting then

46:29

both the UK and, of course, the

46:31

ECB to do the same. And we've

46:34

already seen some other central banks

46:36

deciding to do that even before that, but

46:38

there's some smaller countries. But it is quite

46:40

an important indicator when

46:43

Powell looks quite relaxed about it, despite the fact

46:45

he kept saying, yes, yes, of course, there are

46:47

risks on the upside as well. Risks on the

46:49

downside too. Maybe we may

46:52

overdo it if we don't cut

46:54

rates soon. Things

46:56

might turn the other way. So it might jeopardize

46:59

economic growth. So I think all the hints were

47:01

that indeed we're going to see a cut. That's

47:03

what the markets are deciding. And I think that's

47:05

what all the other central banks are also thinking

47:08

is going to be the case. Because the ECB

47:10

meets next week. So what do we

47:12

expect to come from that? Well,

47:14

when I say soon, I don't really mean immediately

47:16

because, of course, it's really June

47:18

that everyone is looking at as the

47:20

likely month when it's all going

47:23

to happen. But there is a lot more reason

47:25

why the ECB should be reducing rates and

47:27

should be reducing rates sooner

47:29

than others. Yes, of course, there's still about one point

47:31

below where they are in the US and where they

47:33

are in the UK.

47:35

But what we're seeing in Europe is

47:38

that inflation is really slowing down. We've

47:40

had Germany, for example, producing

47:42

some really interesting data on inflation. If you

47:44

look at the national measure of inflation, it's

47:47

going down to just 2.3%. If you

47:50

look at the one which is harmonized across

47:52

Europe, 2.7%, but clearly below 3%. And yes, a

47:55

little bit above 2%, but we are so close to

47:57

the target rate and loads of other countries.

48:00

are also seeing that decline happening. And the

48:02

overall flash estimate

48:04

for the EU for March is about

48:06

2.4%, which is quite low. It

48:08

means that it's been consistently below

48:11

3% now for a while. And

48:13

that, of course, justifies, I think, a

48:15

drop in rates in Europe even sooner,

48:17

but we're still not going to get it. Because as I

48:19

said, we're going to wait for the Fed first, I'm afraid,

48:21

because what the markets might think about the Europe in

48:24

particular, if Europe cuts first,

48:26

of course, it weakens the euro. And then, of

48:28

course, that means perhaps more inflation in the future.

48:30

But frankly, there is

48:32

a lot of concern about growth in

48:34

Europe right now. If you look at,

48:36

for example, the composite indicator of

48:38

activity in Germany, I mentioned the inflation

48:41

rate coming down. We've

48:43

got still below the

48:45

50 mark, which means contraction

48:48

in Germany. Yes, service is doing

48:50

slightly better, but in fact, manufacturing declining

48:52

at a faster rate than it has

48:54

done for some time. And those are

48:56

the data for March, the early data

48:58

for March. So that's a real, real

49:00

worry. If Germany continues to

49:02

suffer, then other countries are affected too. But

49:04

can I just add very quickly before you

49:06

ask me about what

49:09

happens elsewhere in Europe? We've got

49:11

quite good data for Spain, quite good

49:13

data for Italy, quite good data for

49:15

Greece, where manufacturing in all those three

49:17

countries is in fact increasing while it's

49:19

dropping faster in German.

49:23

Many prices, there's worries about that as oil

49:25

is going up again. Yes.

49:27

And of course, that's one of the risks which

49:29

are looked at by the central

49:31

banks. What we've seen, of

49:34

course, is in the meeting that took place yesterday,

49:36

OPEC plus have decided to continue

49:38

with production cuts to

49:41

the end of this current quarter, the second quarter

49:43

of 2024. They're going to decide, since I'm in

49:46

June, very early June, I think the meeting is

49:48

on June 1st, what to

49:50

do next and whether to extend

49:52

that. But what this has meant is

49:54

we've seen that actually at the pump.

49:57

We're driving around, special prices, oil prices

49:59

going up. And in fact, when

50:01

you look at Brent crude, it's hovering just

50:03

below $90 a barrel, which is

50:06

quite high by comparison to where it's been in the last few

50:08

months. And various countries are

50:11

cutting their respective crude oil production. They

50:14

are, which is really the way that

50:17

this cut is going to be effective, of

50:19

course, in terms of pushing prices up and

50:21

also not just production, but also

50:23

exports. But among the countries that are cutting

50:25

it, that includes Russia, which

50:28

is, of course, a contributor to open plus. And

50:30

if you add it all together with what's going

50:32

on in the Middle East, and you

50:35

find that indeed the cut

50:37

is quite effective, it's reflected in

50:39

the prices now. But on the

50:41

other hand, what you've got is the beginning of milder

50:45

weather, not that the winter has been particularly harsh

50:48

in Europe in particular. Milder

50:51

weather means that perhaps less demand. And

50:53

we've seen that less demand being reflected,

50:55

for example, in what's going on in

50:57

manufacturing in Germany right now. Vicky,

51:00

thank you very much indeed. That's Vicky Price

51:02

there. And you're listening to The Globalist on Monocle

51:04

Radio. Finally

51:34

today, Maurice Condé, the giant of Caribbean

51:36

literature, died this week at the age

51:38

of 90. Born in

51:40

Guadalupe, she lived in New York, various

51:43

West African countries, most notably in Mali

51:45

and in France. The author

51:47

of more than 20 novels enjoyed international

51:49

acclaim, winning many awards, including the new

51:52

Academy Prize, which stood in for the

51:54

Nobel in 2018. While

51:58

Will Forrester is translation and...

52:00

international manager at English Pen, which

52:02

is of course the writer's human rights organization,

52:05

and has a wonderful job organising all

52:07

sorts of translation events and interviewing

52:09

authors from all over the world. And

52:12

Marisa Conde was one person that you

52:14

actually did sit down with. Yeah,

52:17

we spoke in the middle of the pandemic

52:20

in 2020 for

52:22

English Pens magazine, Pen Transmissions,

52:25

just as she published her penultimate book.

52:28

And, you know, Marisa was inimitable

52:31

and had such a long career behind her.

52:34

And, you know, you sit down with her

52:36

and yes, you're talking about a book, but

52:38

you're also talking about decades of

52:40

history. She was,

52:42

you know, incredibly political

52:45

in her way, incredibly

52:48

interested in justice. But above all,

52:50

she was a great storyteller and incredibly

52:52

amusing in doing so. Tell us more

52:54

about her work. I

52:57

mean, she was prolific, as you

52:59

said, her, I mean,

53:01

her novels, great novels of

53:03

the Caribbean are, I think, what bring

53:05

most people to her. Her

53:09

work in the 80s was, you know, big

53:11

epics of particularly

53:14

colonial history, but

53:16

always interested in the individuals behind

53:19

that. She was, you know, someone

53:21

who would always upend received

53:24

ideas of literary and

53:26

cultural histories. And her

53:28

later works were similarly

53:30

enormous, ambitious projects.

53:32

Her last book, which was

53:34

published last year in translation

53:37

by Richard Philcox, her

53:40

husband, was

53:42

a, you know, a great take on the

53:44

Jesus story. You know, it was that sort

53:46

of size and ambition

53:48

of work. But

53:50

I think that idea of

53:53

the individual always was at the

53:55

heart of her work. She's known

53:57

as a Caribbean writer, but of course, a lot of

53:59

her work was influenced by her time in

54:01

West Africa, particularly in Mali. Yeah,

54:04

it was. Her fiction but

54:06

also her non-fiction, she wrote

54:09

an extraordinary compelling memoir

54:11

of her time there. And

54:13

it was, I think, a complex time

54:15

for her, she's spoken elsewhere about how

54:18

West Africa, having

54:21

grown up in Guadeloupe, as

54:23

she says, a spoiled

54:26

child, she called herself, when we spoke,

54:28

shielded from histories of

54:30

colonialism and slavery. She

54:32

went to

54:35

Paris, to France for her

54:37

education and was confronted by

54:39

those histories and the

54:41

racial injustices of the contemporary moment.

54:44

And she talks about the romantic idea of

54:46

West Africa she had. She

54:49

went there and that was shattered. She

54:51

found herself, I suppose,

54:53

in between spaces. And

54:55

that comes through in her fiction as well. Even her

54:57

first work is a, you might

55:00

call it, auto-fiction. It's a

55:02

thinly veiled fictionalised memoir of

55:04

that time. You mentioned she

55:06

grew up in Guadeloupe, she was the youngest child

55:08

of a large family. Tell us a

55:10

little bit more about her life. Yeah,

55:13

I mean, as I say, she

55:16

travelled across spaces, across

55:18

histories, across languages. She came across many

55:21

huge cultural and political icons, didn't she?

55:23

She did. And particularly in that time

55:25

when she was in West Africa, she

55:27

was mixing with great writers

55:30

like Maya Angelou, she had contact

55:33

with great activists

55:35

and political activists. But

55:37

again, I think she was uncompromising and

55:39

complex in her relationships with them

55:41

as well. That

55:44

same interest in the

55:46

nuances of individuals and the breaking

55:49

down of binaries of good

55:51

and bad, moral and immoral, right

55:54

and wrong, I think, you

55:57

know, that also came through in her time

55:59

with people. Leila Slimani,

56:02

who was a great fan of hers, wrote

56:04

a wonderful, I suppose, testimony

56:06

to her in The Guardian yesterday. And

56:08

there she spoke about how Maurice

56:12

was always upending your ideas

56:14

of her and was in

56:16

ways disappointing, precisely because she

56:18

would challenge, you know,

56:21

expected norms of what was good. And as

56:23

Leila says, you know, that's what we need in our times. That's

56:26

what we need in a writer. What would you

56:28

say her legacy is? I

56:31

think her legacy is, of course, her work, which

56:33

speaks for itself. But also, I

56:36

think, you

56:38

know, a legacy of Caribbean

56:40

literature and contemporary Caribbean literature

56:43

of engagement with the

56:46

political and social history of the last

56:48

half a century, particularly

56:51

in the Francophone. She

56:54

wrote in French as someone

56:56

who would challenge

56:58

and trouble ideas

57:01

of what contemporary French literature was,

57:03

as something that was

57:05

middle class, often male, often metropolitan.

57:08

You know, she worked at and picked all

57:10

of that. But also,

57:13

she was someone who would always push against all

57:15

of those labels. You know, she was bigger than

57:17

any of those tags that we might be able

57:19

to give to her. And of course, this wonderful

57:21

humour and satire. Yeah, I mean, when

57:23

we spoke four years ago now, she said,

57:25

you know, you have to you have to make jokes for

57:28

people to take you seriously, because

57:30

that's what life is like. It is full

57:33

of severity and it is full of comedy.

57:35

And particularly in her fiction,

57:37

you see that she we

57:39

spoke about who who can be satirised.

57:43

And her answer was everyone. Everything can

57:45

be a source of satire, always

57:47

with a compassion and hope and a

57:49

joy. She was incredibly hopeful,

57:52

I think, in her work, but she

57:54

saw the value not only in and

57:56

of itself of comedy, but

57:58

in affecting change. and in getting people

58:00

on your side, I think that was

58:02

utterly compelling. Well, thank you

58:04

very much indeed. That's Will Forrester from English

58:07

Pen and, as he says, Transmissions

58:09

is the magazine where you can read more

58:11

of his interviews with people like Maryse Cone.

58:14

That's all for today's programme. Thanks to

58:16

our producers Laura Cramer, Carlotta Rebele and

58:18

Monica Lillis. Our researcher was George Ruskin

58:21

and our studio manager was Steph Chungu.

58:23

And his books are your thing, Tom

58:25

Baraguana. There's the current guest on Meet

58:27

the Writers. You can download

58:29

that. Now he's a writer from New Zealand. And

58:31

then coming up this weekend, the Pulitzer Prize winning

58:34

writer Viet Tranh Nguyen. So

58:37

that's something to look forward to. After

58:39

the headline, there's more music on the way and

58:41

the briefing is live at midday in London. I'm

58:44

Georgina Godwin. I'll return on the globalist at the

58:46

same time tomorrow. Thanks for listening.