0:00

You're listening to The Globalist, first broadcast on 2nd May

0:02

2024 on Monocle Radio, The Globalist, in

0:07

association with UBS. Hello,

0:30

this is The Globalist broadcasting to you

0:32

live from Midori House in London. I'm

0:35

Georgina Godwin. On the

0:37

show ahead, we begin with Israel's plans

0:39

for Rafa and talk of an imminent

0:41

ground offensive. Then… Another four

0:43

years for Joe Biden means another

0:45

four years of little Gazas all

0:48

across America. And

0:50

that's something I suspect the American

0:52

people will keep in mind this

0:55

November. As protests in connection

0:57

to the Israel-Hamas wall turn violent

0:59

on US university campuses, Republicans are

1:01

ramping up criticism of President Biden's

1:04

handling of the issue. China

1:06

has revised its state secret laws

1:08

and international businesses in Taiwan are

1:11

extremely concerned. We'll find out why.

1:13

We'll also have analysis on the

1:15

latest news coming out of Ukraine

1:17

and Russia as both sides call

1:19

for more weapons. We'll get

1:21

the latest business and economy news, rustle

1:23

through the papers and… The

1:26

reigning Conservatives in Britain face local

1:28

elections across England and Wales one

1:30

last time before a general election

1:32

later this year. But will a

1:35

bad day for Rishi Sunak make

1:37

his party mutinous? That's all ahead

1:39

here on The Globalist, live from

1:41

London. First,

1:50

a look at what else is happening in the news. Solomon

1:53

Islands lawmakers selected a new Prime

1:55

Minister today, choosing Foreign Minister Jeremiah

1:57

Mannele, who has pledged to continue

1:59

the Pacific Island nations foreign policies

2:01

that tools it closer to China.

2:04

Sort. Of Parliament has no

2:06

approved the second reading as a bill

2:08

on foreign agents that's been criticized as

2:11

Kremlin inspired as police fired tear gas

2:13

and stun grenades declare a large crowd

2:15

of protest as opposed to the just

2:18

law and the Arizona Senate has those

2:20

to to repeal the states eighteen sixty

2:22

Four ban on abortions which could otherwise

2:25

has taken a sex within weeks city

2:27

states into monocle radio throughout the day.

2:29

some more. On the story's. Snow.

2:32

Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has vowed

2:34

that he will proceed with into census

2:37

on the southern Gaza city of rough

2:39

on the board with Egypt's It's the

2:41

only city in the Palestinian territory that's

2:44

not face ground fighting yet. Thus it's

2:46

clear that thoughts about to change some

2:48

more. Let's join Great Customs, his Middle

2:51

East and correspondence and author of how

2:53

long will Israel suffice to threat from

2:55

within Greg Many thanks for coming back

2:57

on the so do we know what

3:00

the Israeli plan for Russia is and

3:02

specifically what the timing might be. No

3:06

Georgina, we don't know the exact timing

3:08

and and I think everyone feels a

3:10

bit of days or zoo at this

3:12

point because we've been hearing from months

3:14

of this is supposedly eminence man that

3:16

hasn't happened. I do think we are

3:18

closer to it actually happening now. The

3:20

Israelis are doing things. That. They have

3:22

not done in the previous year

3:25

months. They are buying sense which

3:27

are meant to how's Palestinians are

3:29

evacuated from Raw fast. They are

3:31

preparing to drop leaflets on Gaza

3:33

telling people where they are meant

3:35

to go to these supposedly safe

3:38

zones in Gaza and are also

3:40

making. Military. Plans identifying with

3:42

star units would be called up, which

3:44

reservists would be called up and sent

3:47

into Gaza for a rough of operation.

3:49

So they are actually making concrete plans,

3:51

which they have not done for the

3:54

previous few months, but I think it's

3:56

likely still going to be several more

3:58

weeks before. A. they can call

4:00

up the reservists that they need and

4:03

B, they can implement whatever plan they

4:05

might have for evacuating the

4:07

civilian population from Rafah. So I think it's

4:09

likely to be at least a few more

4:11

weeks before anything starts. And we

4:13

know that there's obviously strong pushback from the

4:15

region and beyond. The US Secretary

4:18

of State, Anthony Blinken, is in Tel Aviv. What

4:20

does he say on the matter? The

4:23

American position all along has

4:25

been they're not completely opposed to

4:27

the idea of Israel doing something

4:29

in Rafah, but they are opposed

4:31

to any operation that

4:34

doesn't make adequate provisions for protecting civilians

4:37

and moving them out of harm's way.

4:39

And given that in Gaza, that seems

4:41

almost impossible to do, that

4:43

has been sort of a de facto veto

4:45

by the Americans. And so they are pushing

4:47

now, as they have been for

4:50

months, to try and get another ceasefire deal

4:52

done that would release Israeli hostages

4:54

in exchange for a period of calm in

4:56

Gaza. And they're hoping that by

4:59

doing that, they will at least

5:01

delay the Rafah operation and perhaps

5:03

put it off altogether. And so

5:05

there is one last, I think,

5:07

diplomatic scramble that we saw Blinken

5:09

make across the region earlier this

5:11

week, trying to get that deal

5:13

done before this offensive starts going

5:15

ahead. Well, yeah, let's have a

5:17

look at those negotiations ongoing in Egypt. Where

5:19

do they actually stand at the moment? The

5:23

Egyptians have put forward another proposal. It

5:25

would call on Hamas to release 33

5:27

Israeli hostages. That's

5:29

less than the 40 that

5:32

it was meant to release in the earlier

5:34

permutations of this deal. And it's

5:36

less because it's very likely that of

5:38

the categories of hostages Hamas is willing

5:40

to release women, children,

5:42

the elderly, the sick, that

5:44

there are not 40 living hostages

5:47

in those categories. And so it

5:49

would release 33 under this agreement, there

5:51

would probably be one day of truce

5:53

for every hostage that is released. And

5:55

there Would be hundreds or thousands of

5:58

Palestinian prisoners set free as well. Well

6:00

be Israelis Have said. They're

6:02

open to this. the old but the sticking

6:04

point. Out for Hamas are these

6:06

to? the Hamas leadership in Gaza is the

6:08

same. One minute has been for months now,

6:10

which is that. They. Want this be

6:12

able to at least have a pathways or

6:14

to become a permanent ceasefire and and the

6:16

war. And. The Israelis are still insistence

6:19

that this only be of a temporary

6:21

truce and that the fighting could resume

6:23

one. events. And how much pressure sting

6:25

thoughts about by as a countries in

6:27

the Middle East and I was for

6:30

years to to see that the Americans

6:32

are making preparations to accept Palestinian refugees

6:34

and yet nobody within the region is

6:36

doing so. Know

6:39

they're so deep opposition said out, particularly

6:41

in Egypt switches obviously the first country

6:43

that said anything one Sli in Gaza

6:45

would go to that has led in.

6:48

Or. Small number of people over the past

6:50

almost seven months now. They tend to be.

6:53

Are either Palestinians who has foreign passports

6:55

or who have the connections and the

6:57

money. To pay for very expensive

6:59

permits to get out of Gaza because of since

7:01

I've been adamant that. They. Don't want

7:03

large numbers of Palestinians crossing the

7:05

border so we've seen some behind

7:07

the scenes diplomatic pressure. There was

7:10

a gathering and Saudi Arabia earlier

7:12

this week where. Beaters,

7:14

Abuja, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, or

7:16

All birds The Americans to put

7:18

more pressure. On the Israelis

7:20

but countries and reads and do not

7:22

themselves. As. A great deal of

7:24

influence either over the Israeli government or

7:27

the decimal leadership and Gaza. And

7:29

is there to see a particular places

7:31

like Qatar that a large amounts of

7:33

Palestinians, migrants and refugees might metics nicer

7:35

in such a nascent. I

7:38

think it's less of a concern

7:40

in the Gulf States, just given

7:42

that first, they are geographically fairly

7:44

distance from Gaza. And also that.

7:47

They. Have very tight immigration controls these

7:49

are not countries and in any conflict

7:51

across the region. or that tend

7:53

to accept refugees the very selective about who

7:55

they let him than who they don't let

7:57

and and so i think it's a much

7:59

bigger concern for the Egyptians,

8:02

the Sisi government, which

8:04

took power in a coup a decade ago, has

8:07

always viewed Hamas as an extension of

8:09

the Muslim Brotherhood, which it originally was.

8:12

And that's the same Muslim Brotherhood that Sisi removed

8:14

from power in his 2013 coup. And

8:17

so he's always been very nervous about

8:20

what role Hamas might play in meddling

8:23

in or interfering in changing Egyptian

8:25

politics. What's the United Nations

8:27

saying about the situation at the moment? More

8:31

or less the same thing that it has been saying

8:33

for months now to no great effect. I mean, we've

8:35

heard Secretary General and

8:37

other U.N. officials telling Israel quite

8:40

strongly that has no legitimacy

8:42

to go ahead with an operation in

8:44

Rafah, that there needs to be a

8:46

ceasefire. We've seen time and

8:48

time again the U.N. General Assembly has voted

8:51

in favor of resolutions calling for an

8:53

immediate end to the war. But none

8:55

of those resolutions are binding. Israel tends not

8:58

to listen to the United Nations. It's not

9:00

just this Israeli government that's been the case

9:02

for almost the whole of

9:04

Israel's existence. And so it's the U.N. would

9:07

like the war to end, but it has no power to bring

9:09

that about. So we know that

9:11

the era of crossings opened for the first time since

9:13

October the 7th. Will that make

9:15

a significant difference? I mean, is there yet even

9:18

close to sufficient aid going into Gaza?

9:22

The amount of aid that is going in,

9:24

it's better than it was a month ago

9:26

or two months ago, although it's still not

9:28

sufficient. And this route that is meant to

9:30

go from the port

9:33

of Ashgod in Israel through the

9:35

eras crossing into Gaza, it

9:37

hasn't really been spun up yet. So you could,

9:39

in theory, move large amounts of aid in that

9:41

way, but it's not happening as of

9:43

yet. The Americans have begun building

9:45

this floating pier that they're assembling in the

9:48

Mediterranean, which they will then drag

9:50

to the shore of Gaza. And that

9:52

can facilitate larger deliveries of aid by

9:54

sea, but it's going to take several

9:56

more weeks to finish that. So there's the question

9:58

of volume of how much. aid is getting

10:00

in, but also when you talk to Palestinians in

10:02

Gaza, they say even though they are

10:05

seeing reports that more aid is coming in

10:07

now than a month ago, there's a big

10:09

problem around logistics and distribution inside of

10:11

Gaza. There are just not enough trucks

10:13

and drivers. There's not enough fuel

10:16

to move all of this aid where it is

10:18

needed. There's not enough warehouses in some cases to

10:20

store all of it. So it's not just about getting

10:23

more stuff across the borders. It's also about having

10:25

a network to distribute that aid once it gets

10:27

in. And Greg, can we

10:30

have just a quick look at Venezuela's

10:32

case before the International Court of Justice

10:34

attempting to stop Germany selling arms to

10:36

Israel? The

10:39

court ruled 15 to 1 in

10:42

Germany's favor, so against that filing.

10:45

But it wasn't, I would say, an

10:47

exoneration of arms sales to Israel. The

10:50

court's ruling, it was fairly narrow. They

10:52

found that first, Germany isn't selling significant

10:54

amounts of weapons anymore to Israel. It

10:57

has declined significantly in the past two years, and

11:00

that what they're selling is primarily defensive

11:02

weapons rather than offensive weapons. And so

11:05

they ruled that because of the decrease

11:07

in arms sales and also because Germany

11:10

said it had policies in place meant

11:12

to prevent the sale of arms

11:14

or the use of arms in complicity

11:17

with war crimes, that

11:19

those could go ahead. So the

11:21

court not finding that it's fine for any

11:23

country to sell arms to Israel. It was

11:26

a very narrow ruling about a country that

11:28

primarily sells small amounts of defensive weapons to

11:30

Israel. Greg, thank you very much

11:32

indeed. That's Greg Karlstrom there, and this

11:35

is The Globalist. Columbia

11:42

University in New York has been the

11:44

focus of pro-Palestinian protests until Tuesday when

11:46

police arrested dozens of people and removed

11:48

the encampment, which had been there for

11:50

nearly a fortnight. Now the

11:53

protests have escalated on the West

11:55

Coast. University administrators cancelled classes at

11:57

the University of California, Los Angeles,

11:59

yesterday. after violence broke out

12:01

at a pro-Palestinian encampment set up on

12:04

campus. Well, I'm joined now from Los

12:06

Angeles by Mark Edelman, who's a long-standing

12:08

campaign and communications consultant to US Democrats.

12:10

Mark, many thanks for staying up to

12:13

join us. Can you tell us what's

12:15

been happening at UCLA? Well,

12:18

you know, good morning, and thank you

12:20

for having me. You know,

12:22

the situation tonight looks a little different,

12:24

I think, as sort of

12:26

viewers are probably waking up across

12:28

the world. The

12:33

Los Angeles PD has

12:35

declared this a

12:37

legal assembly now. And

12:40

if you are able to

12:42

watch on TV, you will see that there

12:44

are a number of safety

12:47

officers, police officers, that

12:49

are sort of changing the

12:51

tone, I think, this evening for what

12:53

will probably be a likely removal

12:56

of many of the people

12:59

that have been encamped at UCLA

13:01

over the last couple weeks. And

13:04

certainly the violence that occurred

13:06

overnight here in Los Angeles. What

13:09

exactly do the students want? Well,

13:13

I think it's a loaded question. I

13:15

think that there

13:18

are a lot of...it's

13:20

hard to really ascertain

13:22

talking to reporters that

13:24

I know that have been

13:27

at UCLA, that have been at Columbia, that have been

13:29

at Penn. There

13:31

are a lot of people that are

13:33

actually not even students of these campuses

13:36

or part of that community. And

13:41

I, you know, trying

13:44

to articulate where

13:47

and what these people are trying to

13:49

actually accomplish, because they're not talking to

13:51

the media, certainly here at UCLA. They're

13:54

sort of flash-bulbing reporters that come up

13:56

to them and trying to sort

13:59

of throw cameras at them. off with lighting. And

14:01

the message is very unclear to

14:03

me. What I do know

14:06

is that many students feel

14:08

very unsafe. I know

14:10

Jewish students feel very unsafe

14:13

and not at ease. And

14:16

it feels

14:18

to me like

14:20

this is becoming a

14:24

real situation that has gotten

14:26

away from the colleges

14:29

and universities where these protests

14:32

and I it's

14:34

hard to say if that's what they

14:36

really are because I'm not really sure that's

14:38

what they are at this point are taking

14:40

place. So we know that the

14:42

US House of Representatives has voted to

14:44

pass an anti-Semitism awareness bill that's in

14:47

response to violence on campuses. Has

14:50

Jewish students been targeted? You say they

14:52

feel unsafe. Has this

14:54

been a concerted effort?

14:59

Yes, I think there are many

15:01

people that have tried

15:03

to put themselves in

15:06

this situation

15:08

that have literally

15:11

been calling

15:13

and yelling at

15:15

Jewish students as they walk into

15:17

campus, as they walk around campus.

15:21

I think if you really

15:24

miss, you know, substituted

15:29

Jewish students for a person of color, or

15:32

for Asian,

15:35

or for Native American, people

15:38

would lose their minds.

15:41

This bill is now on its way to

15:43

the Senate. And the key point is that

15:45

it broadens the definition of anti-Semitism to include

15:47

criticism of the state of Israel. Surely

15:50

these two are entirely different issues. You

15:52

can fundamentally disagree with the actions of

15:54

Israel without feeling animosity for Jews as

15:56

a whole. Many of them will never

15:58

even have been to the country. In:

16:00

Don't support Netanyahu. I.

16:02

Agree! And I think like one

16:04

of the the real big problem

16:06

says writ large is that nobody

16:08

understands. That. I do want

16:11

to say nobody but a lot of people

16:13

that are. Very engaged in

16:15

I would say the wrong way. Have

16:17

no context or understanding of the very

16:19

complicated history that exist specifically in this

16:22

region And I look at what happened

16:24

in Congress today and and that's great.

16:26

Congress can pass a bell. They can

16:29

you know frying. Get it through the

16:31

senate Franco to the President's desk by

16:33

you know that is a you know.

16:36

Politics by it's nature, can be

16:38

very perform at him, and there's

16:40

not really. Any mechanism

16:42

to do anything that

16:44

west on. Going. On

16:46

So it's it's it's happening and it's it. It

16:48

is what it is as I just. I

16:51

mean Martha was inducted as these classes

16:53

on the campuses ass off the ceiling

16:55

of the why the populace I mean

16:57

certainly in the media The since have

16:59

been a bit of a sea change

17:01

to the Us to that speeds by

17:03

students at Columbia who demanded that the

17:05

Ivy League school provides season since Octopi

17:07

the building with sued and what she

17:09

calls basic humanitarian aid. He said they

17:11

could die of dehydration and starve a

17:13

sense if they weren't given supplies seven

17:15

the middle of New York City to

17:17

the seems a little unlike these people

17:19

are accusing some of these. Honesty very

17:21

privileged seasons in some cases of

17:24

rape victim cosplay. Well

17:26

lot guy you know. Would.

17:28

Add some of the this distances

17:30

of her asking for foods and

17:33

be delivered as their a legally

17:35

ah of in our offices and

17:38

in private or campuses to yeah

17:40

probably learn from history that you

17:42

don't really get that in those

17:45

situations I don't think. This.

17:47

Is actually. Reflective.

17:50

Of. Where most of the

17:52

American people are right now? I

17:54

think this is ah. There.

17:57

Are certainly have a lot of universities

17:59

where the. The Happening by. We

18:01

have over six thousand colleges and

18:03

universities in this country. I don't

18:05

think it is actually why people

18:07

are thinking about every day. If

18:09

you sorta read the data trans

18:12

about social media on it's not

18:14

certainly white people are sort of

18:16

racing on all day long on

18:18

that that. But not a semester is

18:20

almost as as as Students lucas own. soon.

18:22

Now we know from history when process against

18:24

the Vietnam War was sat down and sixty

18:26

eight. the students then cyprus their attention on

18:28

the Democratic National Convention in August and Sickle

18:30

gets up and the Posse plans to convene

18:32

there again in the same month. This yes

18:35

a lot of publications of are predicting that

18:37

we could see a repeat of his seats.

18:39

I feel that there's a salsa President's here

18:41

in that with the Vietnam War, what was

18:43

at stake was that all the students who

18:45

are protesting could then be removed from college

18:47

and would be eligible for the trust's. There

18:49

was no such thing here. So do

18:51

you think that this does pose a danger?

18:54

To biden. Do

18:57

I think this is a great been for

18:59

Joe Biden? Absolutely not. However,

19:02

On. It is Not Nineteen

19:04

Sixty Eight. It's Not Nineteen Seventy Two

19:06

either. And. You. Know.

19:09

I I can impress upon your

19:11

listeners. A North. And to you

19:13

that. This does not

19:16

steal. And. And

19:18

look I'm on way to Yarns the know

19:20

I was like to feel bad I i

19:22

read and i i get a said. This.

19:25

Is Not with this was and you're

19:27

exactly right diet. The equivalency of. Of.

19:29

The Vietnam War said this is

19:31

like literally like apples to ah.

19:34

I don't even said dogs. I

19:36

mean it is. There is a

19:38

very big disconnect I say within

19:40

that sunsets. I. Looked at

19:42

as as we seem to see

19:44

a lot on you know a

19:46

a. A vocal minority

19:49

and have a really large

19:51

voice. And right now? ah,

19:54

There. Is a lot of. Attention being

19:56

put upon our what is happening

19:59

both from television and newspapers and

20:01

and social media. A. However,

20:03

I think it's important to understand. You

20:05

know what's the temperature is and what

20:08

people are actually doing and thinking every

20:10

day. I live in Los Angeles, I

20:12

actually lived two miles from you Cla

20:14

on I drove by. It's a day.

20:17

A You would know if you didn't

20:19

know. And. Dom. It's a

20:21

huge campus and so you know

20:23

when you think back to the

20:26

campus on rest of the late

20:28

Nineteen sixties and early Nineteen seventies

20:30

that was everywhere. And it was

20:32

massive And it it is a

20:34

clarion call of a generation that's

20:37

not with this is on. And

20:39

I you know, talking. To.

20:42

Other people about why.

20:45

They. Feel. On. There is

20:47

this sense of again. As.

20:49

A jew. And I am one.

20:51

so I I own that in every way

20:53

I can. On. The

20:55

idea that you know somebody would come up

20:57

to me and get into my face and

21:00

say something because they don't agree with the

21:02

policies of Israel. Seems.

21:05

An as much to. I. Think

21:07

white the United States is supposed to

21:09

be about and look where a country

21:11

that believes in protest and we believe

21:13

in freedom of speech. But we don't

21:16

believe in violence, we don't believe in

21:18

destruction of private property or public property.

21:20

and we don't believe in making people

21:22

feel unsafe. And it's interesting coming out

21:24

of the last few years where we

21:26

have spent so much time making sure

21:28

people feel safe in the world's that

21:30

there in you know them that the

21:32

lessons we all learn from me to

21:34

and I think the lessons that we've

21:37

learned. Post George Floyd and

21:39

Network continuing to learns this idea

21:41

that all of a sudden a

21:43

huge segment of the population feels

21:45

unsafe in their schools and feels

21:47

unsafe if they're going to pray

21:50

in a synagogue. On. I

21:53

think is a really

21:55

unsettling and and. Difficult.

21:58

Thing to to sort of digest. Moderate

22:00

on and talking to us from Los Angeles'

22:02

thank. You very much indeed. Snuff Still to

22:05

come on the program. Voters. Across

22:07

London Today Unlikely to reelect said

22:09

deep com for an unprecedented third

22:11

term as mayor, but could he

22:13

be losing popularity because of a

22:16

flagship climate policy. This

22:18

is the cyclist. Cbs.

22:24

Has a one nine hundred

22:26

investment analyst, over one hundred

22:28

different concepts over nine hundred

22:30

of the Sauce Moines and

22:32

for systems. In the world

22:34

of them for those are known

22:36

to help new consensus. And yes

22:39

of course. It's

22:47

twenty to sit in London. I was

22:49

in the causing This is Monocle Radio

22:51

and will continue Now the today's newspapers

22:53

journey. Me in the studio is a

22:55

frequent guest, Sissy Mecklenburg. He's an associate

22:57

center with the Middle East and North

22:59

Africa programme that system hospital so you'll

23:02

see a form protests that and a

23:04

former conscript into the ah yes, tell

23:06

us about that little pisses your life

23:08

lesson sense. That's really interesting. You

23:10

mornings when I read this long

23:12

time ago with a sense in

23:14

a vacuum this you being the

23:17

students being given a soldiers in

23:19

a news v re oppose the

23:21

war in Lebanon differently after all

23:23

birds the massacre in suburban shatila

23:25

so you know is in this

23:27

is his soldiers with some of

23:30

us went in demonstrated against against

23:32

to that the invasion of of

23:34

of of Lebanon and defense the

23:36

allowing the massacre in southern city

23:38

line slots at. Nineteen eighties in

23:41

that we we them and sober this

23:43

was the so synthesized against occupation years

23:45

it was almost can have been manga

23:47

and compared to what's happening opening you

23:50

know you're there will have this many

23:52

settlements back in the in in the

23:54

Nineteen eighties and though not did they

23:57

settler violence but three years students it's

23:59

this students of Political A sign so

24:01

we were very Estes Sometimes will outset

24:04

closet the smith M M M flask

24:06

with this a spotter flourescent of illness

24:08

and as to be censored isn't society

24:10

is was completely acceptable in that last

24:13

sentence. It isn't my commanders in the

24:15

military than a new the after the

24:17

day something to do what I was

24:20

doing a was going the and demonstrate

24:22

and protests illness south since you know

24:24

the of. The. has been to

24:26

of goes that this again disagreements but

24:29

this was was acceptable the decently we

24:31

never ask anyone telling us foods and

24:33

we didn't think is best of humanitarian

24:35

aid to give us or whatever of

24:37

would be minister find own for less

24:39

than a homeless after the foetus. I

24:42

mean, that's because there are a lot of crisis

24:44

going on within his own itself. Death

24:47

and and and likely so you

24:49

know that the reporters before October

24:51

seventh as against it did this

24:53

so college addition the song which

24:55

is basically anti democratic as my

24:57

did in it than l government's

24:59

a distant immediately after the war

25:01

started in Hamas it's or city

25:03

it's Madame and dell becomes you

25:05

know they'll be different even people

25:07

to supported it a new isn't

25:09

supported. This is so close the

25:12

songs agenda because the way this

25:14

a what happens the inability of

25:16

days. Any government to defend its

25:18

on paper They did the misperception

25:20

how to deal a misconception how

25:22

to deal with with Hamas the

25:24

ongoing war that is more than

25:26

two hundred and days without any

25:28

conclusions and now you have also

25:30

the issue of of of hostages

25:32

not releasing those to just because

25:34

it's becomes a found it's the

25:36

hostages not number one of a

25:38

always takes a full full day's

25:40

any governments and the Smithsonian would

25:42

have at least pretend it is

25:44

for your with the what. To

25:46

on doing us about it's daily

25:49

miss within the government vidic three

25:51

nights and I fight with religious

25:53

is willing simple to to mention

25:55

the religious because one of the

25:58

obligations. In Judaism. With.

26:00

Cool Limits Vote is releasing hostages

26:02

is one of the top player

26:04

or team it's not in in

26:06

Judaism video swim bringing home and

26:08

the senate and one of them

26:10

actually said only two days ago

26:13

what is Twenty two seventy Sli

26:15

they'll hostage just compared to you

26:17

know the hundreds of thousands did

26:19

so duel and managing you know

26:21

ensuing they're dead devolve checked if

26:23

so to to destroy some us

26:25

in in other words and other

26:27

entered into. As asa. And

26:30

so you know what they think is finishing

26:32

the job in the elections doses is that

26:34

this really this upset a lot of be

26:36

fun and just imagine if your family of

26:39

of her hostages how you feel about i

26:41

would you fit. And as a very

26:43

strong opinion piece in the New Jersey up

26:45

as a Snack Foods in in the Threat

26:47

to Death. Completely in that area

26:49

is it's is dead of the

26:52

position and said this is the

26:54

don't listen to it To me

26:56

when I criticized the government's going

26:58

to have to different from the

27:00

north and south that been evacuating

27:02

now, sold sold more than than

27:04

half a year because of the

27:06

of the security slits. Very security

27:09

in his ass. When when is

27:11

Elise setting it's it's it's military

27:13

might against. In of has

27:15

ballooned and most infamous in the south

27:17

and sets like to eight by Yoichi

27:19

so the can say in own don't

27:22

says deliberately pick up the site was

27:24

did americans it this is the candidates

27:26

have both since do way we the

27:28

was cool as but eyes and it's

27:31

a Pf know he talks about comedy

27:33

need to change for your teeth In

27:35

other words isn't politics and it's. A

27:38

complete to the boots and this will

27:40

tell people in it presents the thingies.

27:43

Those. Dead of the position. A slate.

27:45

the one that is mobile likely to

27:47

win the next election. His nose. In.

27:50

Coalition with Nathaniel was his many guns

27:52

and I don't think you subscribe. it'll

27:54

stick to do a lot of it's

27:57

a thing Imposing pointed with the pizzas

27:59

go big basic the to Saudi initiatives,

28:01

his interests you want them to mention

28:03

to set to start sonos and earnest

28:06

and the states but it's is it

28:08

took about separating which is it codes

28:10

for him to face. Let's move on

28:12

Cnn. C and a British politics. But

28:15

as he talks about a complete sense

28:17

of thousand and look site we might

28:19

be going that way here in Britain

28:21

of cussing thought little elections today. I'll

28:23

be talking about that later on in

28:25

the progress. Other one of the reasons

28:27

people are rejecting that the ruling Tory

28:30

policy right now is there a asylum

28:32

and migration Lose Another you take Home

28:34

office has begun detaining asylum seekers who

28:36

is destined for Rwanda. And yes he

28:38

has as a big piece on this

28:40

large scale operation. And.

28:42

An assisted law school versus the

28:44

be the cylinder into the Z

28:46

to do so. As humans in

28:48

the look really listen, everyone expects

28:50

that the conservatives it's always to

28:52

be homo of and if the

28:54

home of those are the if

28:56

an expectation did some we seem

28:58

they they did. The totality will

29:00

close to replace soon. It's as

29:02

if they must replace dollars a

29:04

day enough time in history of

29:06

the last. A serious is searching

29:08

stores that this might lead them

29:10

to to win elections. Death Twenty.

29:12

Points behind label and it's

29:14

consistent and at the lose

29:16

every single by election the

29:18

probably will lose heavily in

29:20

In in the local elections.

29:22

So how do you consolidate

29:24

the base? The base doesn't

29:26

like him against the base

29:29

loves the one debates there's

29:31

going to achieve. anything

29:33

it is in a way they learned

29:35

of be epitomizes every single was this

29:37

was this that of his deal with

29:39

was it is governments just a it

29:41

soon you may be some of us

29:43

aiding in it's sleep are you still

29:46

fit with also you look at the

29:48

silos or asylum seekers you my do

29:50

in save those migration against negligence with

29:52

palladium them in any sleep like this

29:54

and not understand that is a human

29:56

sides though preference as in the case

29:58

with of the both that arriving, that

30:01

are people desperate to

30:03

reach some safety. And we

30:06

saw the tragic case yesterday, we

30:08

heard about a girl that died

30:12

on one of these

30:14

boats. And to add to this, they

30:16

showed the complete incompetence because it's not going

30:18

to achieve anything. At best,

30:21

they're going to deal with

30:23

2000 asylum-secury

30:27

statistics from yesterday, figures from yesterday, so

30:29

that there is an increase of people

30:31

arriving in the boat by 27%. So

30:33

they don't have the answer.

30:37

Reality, the answer lies somewhere

30:39

in improving condition in the

30:41

places where the asylum figures

30:43

are arriving from. Let's

30:46

finish by having a quick look at

30:48

this Dorset auction house. Withdraw on Egyptian

30:50

human skulls from sale. Just give us

30:52

a quick rundown on what that's about.

30:54

Yeah, there are 18 skulls. Apparently, people

30:56

are buying them for as

30:58

much as 2 to 300. I

31:01

don't know. It's actually a reminder story, not

31:03

about human skulls, but I was once in

31:05

Italian New Hampshire. I went to visit a

31:07

university there, and they put actually a head

31:09

of deer. It just said, a

31:11

head of my bed, and I woke up

31:13

in the morning. It was quite scary. I'd

31:15

rather see them in nature than see them

31:18

kind of at the head hanging above my

31:20

head. It's like, yeah, people collect it. Now,

31:22

it's going back. This is a collection go

31:24

back nearly to 100 years

31:26

right now. But someone, actually,

31:28

an MP, the local MP, put

31:30

stop to this. Think about

31:33

it. It's the legacy of colonialism. Those

31:36

are all skulls from colonies. Maybe it's

31:38

time to

31:40

stop this fetishism with skulls

31:43

and collecting them. Just imagine

31:45

putting it in your cabinet

31:47

at home. Absolutely. I mean,

31:49

I just need to quote from this paper

31:52

to finish off. It's The Guardian. It says,

31:54

the UK has strict regulations on the storage

31:56

treatment and display of human remains, but anyone

31:58

can possess by and... human body

32:00

parts as long as they were not acquired

32:02

illegally and they are not used for transplants

32:05

only for decoration. I've

32:07

heard of cottagecore but

32:09

cadavercore. Now here's what else we're keeping

32:12

an eye on today. Solomon

32:19

Island lawmakers selected a new Prime

32:21

Minister today choosing foreign minister Jeremiah

32:23

Minello who's pledged to continue the

32:25

Pacific Island Nations foreign policy that

32:27

draws it closer to China. Minello

32:30

called for calm noting a history of

32:32

violence in Solomon Islands after elections. Georgia's

32:36

parliament has now approved the second reading

32:38

of a bill on foreign agents that's

32:40

been criticized as Kremlin inspired as police

32:42

fired tear gas and stun grenades to

32:44

clear a large crowd of protesters opposed

32:46

to the draft law. Ever-growing

32:49

numbers of protesters have been taken

32:51

to the street nightly for almost

32:53

a month with a heaving crowd

32:55

tens of thousands strong shutting down

32:57

central Tbilisi yesterday in the largest

32:59

anti-government demonstration yet and

33:01

the Arizona Senate has voted to

33:03

repeal the state's 1864 ban

33:05

on abortion which could otherwise have taken

33:07

effect within weeks. The repeal

33:09

was passed by the Senate in a 16 to

33:11

14 vote and is expected to

33:13

be quickly signed by Governor Katie

33:16

Hoggs a Democrat. Two Republican senators

33:18

crossed party lines to vote in favor

33:20

of repealing the ban. This

33:22

is the globalist stay tuned. Yesterday

33:32

China enacted some revisions to its

33:35

law on guarding state secrets as

33:38

the government steps up the focus on

33:40

national security. This has alarmed foreign companies

33:42

who are worried the legislation could punish

33:44

business activities and has prompted Taiwan to

33:47

advise its citizens to avoid traveling to

33:49

China. Well William Yang is a journalist

33:51

based in Taipei and joins me now.

33:53

William, many thanks for coming on the

33:55

globalist. Why has Xi Jinping increased

33:58

the focus on national security? security.

34:02

So this is in line

34:04

with his heartline

34:07

shift towards strengthening

34:10

his government's overall control over

34:12

civil society. And at the

34:14

same time, we have already

34:16

seen a trend of the

34:18

Chinese government becoming more suspicious

34:20

of foreign interference and also

34:22

foreign influence on the Chinese

34:24

society. So this latest revision

34:26

to the state secrets law

34:28

is just the new addition

34:30

to this overall doubling

34:33

down on strengthening the Chinese

34:35

government's tools to protect its

34:37

national security since he came

34:39

to power. So I mean,

34:41

I know that the law was first enacted

34:43

in 1988, but what are the specific changes

34:46

to the law and what impact have they

34:48

had so far? We've seen a few high

34:50

profile arrests already. Right.

34:53

So the revision basically broadened

34:56

the scope of the

34:58

definition of state secret

35:00

and included work related

35:02

information into the potential

35:05

qualification for state secrets. And

35:07

it also requires Chinese internet

35:10

providers and also at the

35:12

same time to

35:14

cooperate with investigations and the

35:16

delete off and provide relevant information

35:19

that would be considered as state

35:21

secrets. And at the

35:23

same time, we know that employees

35:25

of state secret related departments will

35:28

also be required to be

35:31

go under stricter scrutiny. And

35:35

currently we know that since over

35:37

the last few years, several

35:39

American consulting firms have

35:41

already saw their

35:44

office being raided in China

35:46

and several Japanese companies have

35:49

seen their Japanese employees being

35:51

arrested and detained under espionage

35:53

related charges. And why

35:55

is Taiwan advising citizens not to travel to

35:57

go to China? Because

36:01

we already have past

36:03

precedents of some Taiwanese

36:05

people being detained in

36:08

China, also under espionage-related

36:10

charges for basically not

36:13

really conducting anything related

36:15

to exchanging

36:19

sensitive information or trying

36:22

to acquire sensitive information from their

36:24

Chinese counterparts. And we also

36:26

know that under

36:29

the current government over the last

36:31

eight years, the cross-stra relations has

36:33

really worsened and the risks that

36:36

Taiwanese people face in China has

36:38

also increased with China stumbling

36:40

down off national security. And

36:43

do you think this expansion of the

36:45

law will be bad for China's international

36:47

business links? Yes,

36:49

because we already see a lot

36:52

of American businesses or even Japanese

36:55

businesses and other businesses from

36:57

other countries are reconsidering

37:00

about their operation in

37:02

China and how the

37:04

Chinese government's campaign of

37:06

enforcing and putting

37:09

emphasis on national security is really going

37:11

to create an uncertainty for their operation

37:13

and the safety

37:15

of their employees going forward.

37:18

And so I definitely think that

37:20

at this point, at a time

37:22

when the Chinese economy continues to

37:24

perform weak and really needs to

37:27

increase its investment

37:29

from foreign countries, this kind

37:32

of at the same time

37:34

doubling down on national security is basically contradicting

37:37

that effort of attracting

37:39

more foreign investments. William,

37:41

thank you very much indeed. That's

37:43

William Young in Taipei there. You're

37:45

with Monocle Radio. 38

38:00

in Zurich and it's time to look

38:03

at the latest news coming out of

38:05

Ukraine with Jenny Mathers who's a senior

38:07

lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University.

38:10

Jenny, good morning to you. I wonder what

38:12

you could tell us about the Ukrainian strike

38:14

on an oil refinery south of Moscow. Well,

38:17

what we know is that the Ukrainian

38:20

special forces have said that they have

38:22

carried out attacks

38:24

only on one oil refinery

38:26

but on several oil

38:29

facilities within Russian territory. And this

38:31

is really part of an ongoing

38:34

series of exercises and operations attempting

38:37

to really hit at Russia's ability

38:39

to wage the war

38:41

but also to fund the war

38:43

because Russia is a major exporter

38:45

of energy and it's one of

38:47

its main ways of earning foreign

38:49

income and ways of continuing to

38:52

fund this operation. We understand that

38:54

the US has asked Ukraine to

38:56

stop targeting oil facilities within Russia.

38:58

Why is that? So the

39:01

logic behind this is that the US

39:03

is worried that it will have an

39:05

impact on global oil prices, energy prices,

39:08

which will put consumers, particularly in the

39:10

US but not only in the United

39:12

States, under greater pressure. And of course,

39:14

the US is facing congressional and

39:17

presidential elections in the autumn and

39:19

there's concern about how consumers and

39:21

voters are going to respond to

39:23

more pressure on their pocketbooks. So

39:26

this has been a source of tension

39:28

really between Ukrainians and the Americans. Ukrainians

39:30

feel that the Americans are trying

39:33

to constrain their efforts unnecessarily and

39:35

that this attempts

39:37

to stop them from attacking

39:40

Russian energy supply areas are really very

39:42

difficult, making their lives more difficult because

39:45

this is a key way of hurting

39:47

Russia and a key way of striking

39:49

its ability to wage the war. Now,

39:52

Russia's defence ministry says that their troops

39:54

have hit the common headquarters of Ukraine's

39:57

southern army grouping. I wonder if that's

39:59

verified more. What the details are? It

40:02

has not yet been independently verified and

40:04

it's something that the Ukrainians haven't

40:07

confirmed. They have been visualized that

40:09

Russian strikes on Odessa have hit

40:12

civilian targets. They talk about medical

40:14

facilities, educational facilities, homes and so

40:16

on. So this is a situation

40:18

where we have unconfirmed

40:20

and contradictory reports. But

40:23

it certainly would indicate that Russia's claims

40:25

would indicate that Russia is continuing

40:28

to put pressure on the southern

40:31

and eastern parts of the

40:33

area where conflict is going on. It's

40:36

consistent with over

40:39

the last several months over more and more

40:41

successes really by the Russian forces,

40:44

marginal but successes nevertheless in pushing

40:46

back the Ukrainians and really putting

40:48

these areas under an enormous amount

40:50

of pressure, trying to make some

40:52

advances while there is this gap

40:55

in Western funding and

40:57

Western supplies. And when

40:59

will the supplies arrive? I mean the

41:01

Ukrainian soldiers are stressing again

41:03

and again how urgent this is. That's

41:06

right. Well apparently some have already

41:08

begun to be distributed.

41:11

There were some forces, some weapons rather that

41:13

were moved to advance staging

41:15

in Poland and so on so they could

41:18

be quickly distributed. But some of

41:20

the things that have been promised by the US will

41:22

take weeks or months and so on and some of

41:24

the things that have been promised haven't even been manufactured

41:26

yet. So it's a

41:28

very mixed picture and indeed

41:30

Ukraine is pressing lots

41:32

of different countries, all of its donor

41:34

countries to increase the speed

41:36

with which it actually supplies things, not just

41:39

promises them but actually gets them there on

41:41

the ground to be used. And Russia too

41:43

needs more arms they say. What do we

41:45

know about Russian defence minister Sergei

41:48

Shoigu, his order for more and

41:50

flifter delivery of weapons? From

41:52

who? Well, from

41:54

the Russian defence industry basically. So

41:56

Russian economy has geared up to

41:59

a certain extent. to prepare for

42:01

the war and to defeat the war

42:03

effort. And you know, reportedly Russian ammunition

42:06

and weapons suppliers are working around the clock.

42:08

You know, people are taking 12-hour shifts, compulsory

42:11

overtime to try and get more and more

42:14

new weapons out there as well as pulling

42:16

things out of storage. But what's

42:18

interesting, I think, about Shoygu's call is

42:21

it indicates firstly that Russia is feeling under

42:23

pressure to try and make as much progress

42:25

as possible before the bulk of US

42:27

supplies arrive in Ukraine. But

42:29

also that, you know, despite all of

42:32

the increased efforts for the Russian defence

42:34

industry, Shoygu is not impressed

42:36

both by the quality and by the quantity

42:38

of what he's getting feeding

42:40

his forces at the front. So there are clearly

42:42

some tensions there. Now

42:45

the International Rescue Committee says that the situation

42:47

in Hakeev, which lies near the

42:49

Russian border and is Ukraine's second largest

42:51

city, is getting much worse. And

42:54

now this is not just casualties, although there have

42:56

been many of those, but also anxiety

42:58

and mental stress. That's

43:01

right. Well, you know, in

43:03

many ways all of Ukraine's society

43:06

is suffering all kinds

43:08

of mental and emotional trauma as well as physical

43:10

trauma. And it's something that's just going to take

43:12

a long time to work its way through.

43:14

But Kharkiv in particular has been under

43:16

a lot of pressure in recent months.

43:18

You know, their energy infrastructure has been

43:20

hit very badly as well as, you

43:22

know, civilian deaths and loss

43:24

of civilian infrastructure in other ways. So,

43:27

yes, absolutely. I think what

43:29

we are realising more and more is the extent

43:32

of damage and

43:34

trauma which ordinary people are

43:37

suffering as a result of this war. And

43:39

the fact that it's going to take a lot to rebuild

43:41

Ukraine, not only to rebuild the physical

43:43

infrastructure, but also to support the population

43:45

after the war finally is finished. And

43:48

just briefly, I mean, both

43:50

sides calling for more arms.

43:53

We've got the seasons changing. It's getting

43:55

warmer. Who would you say has the

43:57

upper hand at present? I

44:00

think it's hard to say. At

44:02

the moment, the momentum is with Russia because

44:04

of this delay in

44:06

supplying particularly US weapons for

44:08

several months. I think

44:11

that has had an impact on the way

44:13

that Russia thinks about the war and the

44:15

desire to sort

44:17

of drive forward and take advantage of this.

44:20

I think that those efforts are going to

44:22

be redoubled now that they see that the

44:24

resupplies are going to happen again. For

44:27

the Ukrainians, they're under enormous amount of pressure.

44:29

They're having to pull back step

44:31

by step from various privileges and lines

44:34

of conflict in the Donetsk

44:36

region, for example. They're

44:38

trying to mobilize more soldiers because

44:40

not only ammunition is key but

44:42

soldiers as well. They've

44:45

announced a new mobilization law, dropping

44:47

the age for conscription for men, putting

44:50

more pressure under Ukrainian men who've left the country

44:52

to come back. But at the same

44:54

time, Russia also is trying to mobilize more people.

44:57

It's one of these very, very

44:59

difficult sort of shifting dynamic situations

45:01

where there are lots of pieces

45:03

in motion. And it's hard

45:05

to say in this precise moment which forces are

45:07

going to be more successful in

45:10

mobilizing themselves and making a difference in the

45:12

next few months. Jenny, thank you very much

45:14

indeed. That was Jenny Mathers. And this is

45:16

The Globalist on Monocle Radio. The

45:23

Global Financial Services firm with over 150 years

45:25

of heritage. Built

45:29

on the unique dedication of our people,

45:31

we bring fresh thinking and perspective to

45:34

our work. We know

45:36

that it takes a marriage of intelligence

45:38

and heart to create a lasting value

45:41

for our clients. It's

45:43

about having the right ideas, of course,

45:45

but also about having one of the

45:48

most accomplished systems and

45:50

an unrivaled network of global

45:52

obstacles. And that's

45:54

why at UBS, we pride ourselves on

45:56

thinking smarter to make a real

45:58

difference. Tune into

46:00

the bulletin with UBS every week

46:02

for the latest insights and opinions

46:05

from UBS all around the world. Well,

46:15

it's time now for a roundup of trade

46:17

and economy stories with Vicky Price, economist

46:19

and former joint head of the UK

46:21

government's economic service. Vicky, good morning to

46:23

you. What is the US interest rate

46:26

story? It is

46:28

one of just keeping interest rates unchanged again.

46:30

I think the markets earlier

46:32

this year expected there would be quite a

46:34

lot of cuts in interest rates this year

46:37

in the States. But unfortunately, what

46:39

has been going on is of course that the

46:41

economy is doing well, actually not unfortunately, it's good

46:43

for jobs, good for

46:46

people in the US. The

46:48

economy has been doing slightly better than

46:50

it's been anticipated with the result that

46:52

we now stuck still with the Federal

46:55

Reserve keeping rates at the range of 5.25 and 5.0%.

46:57

So no real change, still rates staying

47:03

very, very high. They've been the highest for

47:05

decades. Meanwhile, let's look to the

47:07

EU, which has recovered in quarter

47:09

one, but pattern is unbalanced.

47:12

Yes, with the difference really between the US and Europe

47:14

has been for quite some time that the US has

47:17

been powering ahead, well, in versus commerce, not as high

47:19

perhaps as it used to do in the past, but

47:21

with a lot of help from by dynamics, a

47:24

lot of money being spent in the economy, people

47:26

using their savings that they accumulated

47:28

during COVID to spend and it looks

47:30

like they've spent all those savings. So

47:32

quite a buoyant economy, to a

47:35

considerable extent also shielded from

47:37

all the crisis we've seen because it's

47:39

basically self-sufficient in energy and so on to

47:41

Europe, which had been so dependent on Russia,

47:44

of course, for gas and

47:46

also has suffered quite considerably through both

47:49

the COVID period and with the

47:51

energy crisis since the war in Ukraine. But

47:54

you are seeing finally that there is a move

47:56

out to recession. The figures have been, looks at

47:58

it again for the last a

48:00

couple of quarters and those suggest that

48:03

yes there was a recession in Europe at

48:05

the end, well from the middle onwards of

48:07

2023 but we're now seeing some

48:09

growth in the

48:11

quarter which is certainly incredibly welcome.

48:14

So we have growth of 0.3%

48:17

in the first quarter, much higher than had been

48:19

anticipated which is good news but at the

48:21

same time you have inflation actually

48:24

very close to target. So

48:26

we had 2.4% in

48:28

April and well what you've actually got to

48:31

when you look at individual countries is

48:33

that there are huge differences both on the

48:35

inflation rate where you have

48:37

many countries already below target, below

48:40

the 2% and also in terms of growth

48:42

where the big countries are not doing very

48:44

much like France, Germany and

48:46

also Italy and then you have quite

48:48

a lot of other particularly southern European

48:51

countries like Spain and also

48:54

Portugal and Greece doing quite well

48:56

and strangely also Ireland exceeding

48:59

the figures for the first quarter quite significantly so

49:01

huge disparity. The question of course for the European

49:03

Union and the Bank is how do you

49:06

look at that disparities that exist and

49:08

balance things out? Well I mean the

49:10

truth is that overall the economies are

49:12

not doing particularly well we just exited a

49:14

technical recession and inflation looks like it's getting

49:17

to target very very quickly already there

49:19

for a number of countries and therefore interest

49:21

rates may come down in Europe

49:23

before they do in the States. What is the picture

49:25

here in the UK? Similar

49:28

really to a considerable extent to what's been

49:30

going on in Europe because the UK also

49:32

had a recession in the second half of

49:35

2023. The

49:37

economy is improving a little

49:39

bit we've seen certainly services are rising quite

49:41

significantly over the last few months the output

49:44

figure suggests that manufacturing was beginning to go

49:46

a bit better but unfortunately seems to have

49:48

gone back down again at the latest data

49:51

so that's a bit of a concern. But

49:53

what you find is that yes there is

49:56

some growth not spectacular growth inflation

49:58

seems to have stabilized. And

50:00

I think the pressure is going to be also here on

50:03

the Bank of England to cut rates before in

50:05

the US. Until now, we thought we'd

50:08

wait for the US and then everyone else would follow.

50:10

We would all be fine. We won't have all these

50:12

currency impacts that would be the

50:14

case otherwise, because obviously, if you cut

50:16

first, your currency comes under some sort

50:18

of pressure. Maybe that pushes your inflation up. But

50:21

it looks like that pattern that we thought

50:23

would happen is now likely to be broken.

50:25

So Europe and the UK may

50:27

well both cut in June. And

50:30

just looking at property here in the UK,

50:32

I see that house prices have fallen unexpectedly

50:34

for a second consecutive month. Yes,

50:37

well, that is because, of course, the markets have looked

50:39

at what's been going on in the

50:41

US and the various pronouncements made even

50:43

before the latest meeting and assumed that

50:46

perhaps global interest rates will stay higher

50:48

for longer. And they have readjusted the

50:50

UK rates

50:52

as well. So mortgage rates have been going

50:54

up because the yield, cloud has been going

50:56

up. So yield prices in the bond market

50:58

have been going up. Not

51:01

the prices, yields in the bond market. I'm

51:03

sorry, it's early in the morning. Yields in

51:05

the bond market have been going up a

51:07

little bit. So everything's been reprised with

51:09

the result, of course, that mortgages are

51:12

going up. And although house prices were

51:14

beginning to improve, what we're seeing now

51:16

is it seems that that

51:18

period is coming to an end. And if rates

51:20

do stay high for any length of time, we're

51:22

probably going to see prices here decline a little

51:24

bit further. And what we're also seeing, because interest

51:27

rates are staying high, retail

51:29

sales looked stagnant over the

51:31

last month. So the

51:34

consumer is being quite cautious. Vicky, thank

51:36

you very much indeed. That's Vicky Price

51:38

there. And you're listening to The Globalist

51:40

on Monocle Radio. Thank

51:55

you. Now,

52:01

today sees the last local elections

52:03

around the UK before the general

52:05

election expected in the autumn. However,

52:07

if the reigning Conservatives have a

52:09

poor showing, Rishi Sinnak might not

52:11

be leading his party into that

52:13

election thanks to his increasingly rebellious

52:15

backbenchers. Well, to discuss why

52:18

today is so crucial, I'm joined in

52:20

the studio by political reporter Vincent Nakavini.

52:22

Vinny, thank you for hopping over from

52:24

the other side of the glass while

52:26

you're doing your producer duties. Vinny hats

52:28

this morning. These are just local elections.

52:30

Why are they so important? I

52:32

think these are probably the most important

52:34

local elections in many years because it

52:36

is going to be a litmus test

52:38

for Rishi Sinnak. When there were local

52:40

elections in these seats, so these are

52:42

in England and in Wales,

52:45

so we've got local councils, mayoralities

52:47

and police commissions as well. The

52:49

local council ones, the last time

52:51

these particular councils were done in

52:53

the cycle was in the Boris

52:55

Johnson years, back in sort of

52:57

three, four years ago, and they

52:59

had an unexpected bounce from the

53:01

success of the vaccine rollout, but

53:03

also because of Boris Johnson. You

53:06

can never forget for all his faults,

53:08

he is an incredibly effective campaigner, he

53:10

can deliver a message. And

53:12

another election taking place today, the London Mayor

53:14

election, he is the only Conservative

53:16

to ever win that. He won it two

53:18

terms and Labour is, you know,

53:20

London is a Labour city. So it is going

53:22

to be a reflection today on where

53:25

the country is, but also Rishi Sinnak

53:27

and his leadership. Local elections,

53:29

of course, local issues important, but I think a

53:31

lot of people are wanting to turn

53:33

out and give the Conservatives a bit of

53:35

a kick because local councils have fallen into

53:38

huge disarray. We've got many of them declaring

53:40

bankruptcy and conditions, particularly local

53:42

things like potholes and things that they don't

53:44

have money to fix anymore because of the

53:47

formula in the way that the central

53:49

government is controlling the way that councils

53:52

can spend and raise money. The

53:55

mayoral race in London between Labour and the Conservatives.

53:57

I know that both you and I were lobbied

53:59

by our cow-givers. as our black cab drivers

54:01

this morning. We were trying to

54:03

get us to say that we would not

54:05

vote for the

54:07

incumbent who, of course, has brought

54:09

in Ules and all sorts of things. Tell us

54:12

a little about this mayoral race. Well, Sadiq

54:14

Khan has been mayor for two terms. He's

54:16

going for an unprecedented third term as London

54:18

mayor. And the big thing of the past

54:20

couple of years that he has had to

54:23

battle is to try to clean up London's

54:25

air. And we already had a congestion charge.

54:27

That's been in place for about 20 years.

54:29

You have to pay to drive in central

54:31

London. But what he's done is bring in

54:34

Ules, which is an ultra-low emissions. Basically

54:36

any vehicle prior to 2005, it

54:41

has to pay an extra fee to drive in

54:44

London each day. Now, this has caused real

54:46

problems, not so much in the central boroughs

54:48

of London, but in the sort of surrounding

54:50

boroughs to the sort of main part of

54:52

the city, because a lot of

54:54

older cars there particularly used for business purposes,

54:56

traders and biddlers and all that kind of

54:58

thing. And they have really kicked off about

55:01

this. Now, there is a scrappage scheme. There

55:03

was also a scheme to donate your car

55:05

to Ukraine and the government will ship it

55:07

out there. So there have been measures put

55:09

in place, but it has become a bit

55:11

of a bugbear. But also, Sadiq Khan

55:13

has come under fire, not just

55:15

locally, but internationally. He's become a

55:18

bit of a boogeyman for sort

55:20

of far-right politicians around the world

55:22

and their supporters. You

55:24

know, a lot of racism, a lot

55:26

of Islamophobia directed his way as well.

55:28

But he is likely to win, but

55:30

likely to also have a slightly cut-down

55:32

majority of the Conservatives. But for the

55:34

first time, because Labour has a 20-point

55:37

lead roughly in the national polls, he

55:39

will be mayor likely in this term

55:41

under a Labour government, which might make

55:43

things easier for him over

55:45

the next couple of years. Now, voters have to

55:47

bring ID with them. Is

55:50

there a danger of disenfranchisement?

55:53

Yeah, this is only the second time that voters

55:55

are going to have to bring an ID along

55:57

with them. There are very specific kinds. criticism,

56:00

because whilst there are quite a lot

56:02

of ideas, particularly for pensioners, there are

56:04

very few ideas for young people to

56:06

bring along and vote. So that is

56:08

the issue where there are concerns. There's

56:10

also, you know, we never had voter

56:12

ideas requirement until about sort of two,

56:14

three years ago. And there are, there's

56:16

real criticism as to why it was

56:18

introduced, because there was no,

56:21

relatively, I mean, no election fraud here in

56:23

the UK whatsoever. So it seems unnecessary. But

56:25

what it's actually done, particularly we've seen in

56:28

smaller votes that by elections so far, is

56:30

people are just unaware about it. And so

56:32

you're getting disenfranchisement because people didn't know they

56:34

turn up the polling station, they don't have

56:36

an ID. And then they're like, well, I'm

56:39

not coming back again. And that

56:41

I think will be a test, because there are

56:43

calls to scrap it ahead of the general election

56:45

later this year. And when will we know the

56:47

results? Well, this, I think, is a bit of

56:50

a damning indictment of where things are at

56:52

the moment in Britain. A lot of councils

56:54

say they do not have the money to

56:56

pay people to count ballots overnight. Now, that

56:58

has traditionally been the way, and we'd be

57:01

getting the results tomorrow morning, and

57:03

people would be staying up to

57:05

watch those results coming in. That

57:07

is not the case. We're hearing

57:09

that probably late Friday or even

57:11

Saturday, we will be hearing about

57:14

it. At some of the

57:16

councils that are overnight, the conservative ones, what

57:18

they're trying to do is do we think

57:20

the counting quickly overnight still so that

57:22

tomorrow morning, it doesn't seem as bad

57:25

for Rishi Sunak, because they'll likely stay.

57:27

But I mean, he's likely to lose

57:29

about half of the council positions that

57:31

are up. But the mayorality is particularly

57:33

teeside and the West Midlands. Now, if

57:36

he loses those, particularly

57:38

a popular mayor like Andy Street, who's tried

57:40

to sort of carve a niche out for

57:42

himself away from the central conservative party, but

57:44

if voters don't turn out on the conservative

57:46

flanks for them, and

57:48

Labour managed to sort of pull those gains, I

57:52

think Rishi Sunak could be in trouble over

57:54

the weekend. His backbenchers, particularly the Sowal Abravmans,

57:56

the Liz Trust is on the

57:58

move to potentially replace him. and

58:00

we would then be treated to our

58:02

sixth Conservative Prime Minister during their 14

58:05

years so far in office. Good

58:07

heavens. Very quickly, the hashtag dogs

58:09

in polling stations is the one

58:11

I love. I'm looking for it. I mean,

58:13

produce a hat on. You asked me about this

58:15

before the show started and I have checked. Now,

58:17

what the official guidance is, service dogs, so dogs

58:19

for the blind, they can be brought in. It's

58:21

at the discretion of local councils as to whether

58:24

or not you can bring your dogs in polling

58:26

stations, but no words on cats, horses, rabbits or

58:28

snakes. Right. Well, I have to

58:30

tell you that Bella is a massive Labour supporter. Thank

58:33

you very much, Vincent Nakavini and

58:35

Axel, for today's programme. Thanks to

58:38

Vincent Nakavini and Laura Kramer, as

58:40

well as Sophie Monaghan-Koons, our researcher

58:42

Gunnar Grinlid and our studio manager,

58:44

Kristi O'Grady. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank

58:47

you for listening.