0:14

hello everyone i

0:15

i have with me me today

0:18

i

0:18

the target on before dark to marry and to

0:20

p.m a new guest he's co-author

0:23

at the moment of a new book called the

0:26

story of population, growth innovation

0:28

and human flourishing on an infinitely

0:31

bountiful planet twenty twenty two

0:33

it's the most complete opposite of any apocalyptic

0:36

title you might ever envision

0:39

married to talk to me before particularly

0:41

about his book then global

0:43

trends every smart person should know the

0:45

many others you will find interesting that was published

0:47

in twenty twenty marion

0:50

is the this

0:53

and i retweet them like

0:55

consistently he's a senior fellow at the

0:57

center for global liberty and prosperity

0:59

and a coauthor of i'm

1:02

an abundance index which we will talk

1:04

about to some degree today it's he specializes

1:07

in globalization study

1:09

of globalization and

1:11

global well being and politics and the economics

1:14

of europe and

1:15

southern africa

1:17

doctor deal pooley his associate

1:19

professor of business management at brigham young

1:22

university at why he's taught

1:24

economic statistics that our faisal university

1:26

in riyadh saudi arabia

1:29

brigham young

1:30

in idaho of boise state university in

1:32

the college of idaho he earned his bb a

1:34

and economic supposes state graduate

1:37

work at montana state when

1:39

his phd at the university of idaho

1:42

here you

1:43

the part of the development this

1:46

i'm in abundance indexes well the

1:48

ever said is the coauthor of this new

1:50

book

1:51

superabundance

1:53

is a lot different than apocalyptic

1:55

do as i pointed out

1:58

doctors to be

2:00

in jail have publish widely in the public

2:02

domain as well as professionally and outputs

2:04

like financial times the national review

2:07

the i can early evil

2:09

journal collette forbes he

2:11

american spectator the washington post

2:13

etc any of your

2:15

what would you call them

2:17

traditional suspects or usual suspects

2:19

so anyways we're going to talk about this new work

2:21

today superabundance three part

2:24

ten shop

2:26

the analysis of why

2:28

strangely enough

2:29

they seem to be a lot better than we fake

2:31

and perhaps better than they ever were

2:34

an dot they were

2:36

more concerned about it and we ever seem to have

2:38

been before so welcome gentlemen

2:40

thank you very much for agreeing to talk to me and congratulations

2:43

on your new book

2:44

thank you very much am delighted to be with you

2:47

yeah so let's saw with start with

2:49

superabundance

2:52

i don't know whether to start with with julian

2:54

simon's famous bet

2:56

that's not our is it's kind of a nice narrative and

2:58

reportedly

2:59

i think that's so that's

3:01

bright yeah

3:03

then i was a what do you want to outline for

3:05

for listeners viewers the

3:07

nature of this famous backed why it was made

3:09

in what it what it's broader cultural significance

3:11

was because it was really a watershed back i

3:13

think in many ways

3:15

also in the post second world war era

3:18

global population started

3:20

to grow as a much

3:22

faster rate than before partly

3:25

, of far tremendous amount

3:28

of from medical and scientific knowledge

3:30

that started to to

3:32

around the world a baby study to

3:35

on the you know if you're they decide

3:37

to die young people started to grow to ago

3:40

but grow old and grow old and

3:42

dumb some people

3:44

started to freak out about it they thought that

3:47

saw that was going to be too many people in the

3:49

world and consequently we were

3:51

going to run out of resources saw prices

3:53

of resources were going to go sky high

3:55

end that would be mass starvation now

3:58

the man who brought to this particular

3:59

the obsession or

4:01

the think so problems into the public

4:04

sphere was paul ehrlich

4:06

who still is alive he's a

4:08

biologist at stanford university

4:10

and eaten in nineteen sixty a deal causing

4:12

trouble so causing trouble still to

4:15

oh yes and done in under

4:17

sixty eight he wrote an extremely popular

4:19

books book which sold millions of

4:21

copies or cold the population bomb

4:24

and the population bomb started in

4:26

a sort of very terrifying a language

4:28

that we have become accustomed to from

4:30

extreme environment police over the decades

4:33

and he basically said no matter what policy

4:35

changes we are going to make now

4:38

or in the nineteen seventies hundreds of millions

4:40

of people are going to die due

4:42

to starvation in fact none

4:44

of that happens nonetheless both

4:47

are leagues book bee population bomb scared

4:50

and scarred psychologically generations

4:53

of people the

4:56

movies had been made about how the world

4:58

was going to run out of resources

5:00

and and in a catastrophes the one

5:02

of the more famous ones was so with

5:04

charlton heston it was called

5:07

soylent green and saw

5:09

the reason why it's important

5:12

is because soylent green was

5:14

it was filmed in nineteen seventy four was

5:16

supposed to come to fruition in twenty

5:18

in twenty which is this year and

5:20

a basic premise of the book was

5:23

in the world was completely empty

5:25

of food and so every time

5:27

a person died that person

5:29

would be converted into biscuits called

5:31

soylent green which would be than said

5:34

add to the people who stayed

5:36

behind so ah

5:39

on the other side right hunter was so lot of this

5:41

just gives a backer and back to a lot of this

5:43

was based on hypothetical biological

5:46

thinking

5:47

pretty good on them work of malthus

5:49

and it's sort of a yeast or rat model

5:51

of human existence so

5:54

if you have a colony

5:56

of east the you and they have

5:58

a a finite the medium

6:00

that they're growing in saw a finite

6:03

source of food then you

6:05

let the east multiply or

6:07

let them provide them

6:09

with the preconditions for the modification

6:12

their population will expand until they

6:14

consume all the available resources and

6:16

then it will precipitate precipitously

6:18

collapse and starvation and people

6:20

tried similar although

6:23

that

6:24

the ball experiments with rats

6:27

you're going

6:29

similar behavior than i would say documented

6:31

similar phenomena in the field that mean

6:33

animals will over

6:36

a graze for example if they're herbivores

6:38

will over graze available cropland

6:41

if they're not kept in check so to speak

6:44

by predators and biologists

6:46

extrapolated from this is said that under

6:49

all other things being equal

6:52

populations will expand until they

6:54

consume more available resources

6:57

than will sustain them and then they will

6:59

tend to precipitously collapse and

7:01

then that was applied to the human condition but

7:03

the

7:04

that we see from the rest of your stride

7:06

the economist's objected to this

7:08

guess so the view that just you just described

7:11

his particular popular amongst

7:14

among , biologists our

7:16

economy's don't think i glad because they

7:18

recognize that human beings are fundamentally

7:21

different from rats or out be

7:23

or or rabbits or whatever allergies

7:25

or east east have this

7:27

thing called intelligence and the

7:29

ability to apply these little

7:31

grey cells in order to come up with

7:34

innovations which can get around the problem

7:36

of scarcity so on the other side of the of

7:38

or league as i said wasn't stanford and california

7:41

on the other side of the country in that in

7:43

at a in maryland's there

7:45

was an economist cold julian simon

7:47

a very julian

7:50

, and very interesting man who

7:52

looked at the data actually and started

7:54

noticing that saw things were

7:56

becoming cheaper which means

7:59

that they were become the list here even

8:01

though population of the world continue to increase

8:03

day for in nineteen eighty

8:06

he made a bet with paul

8:09

ehrlich and debate was on the

8:11

price of five commodities let me see

8:13

if i can remember them the the debate

8:16

was on the price of chromium copper

8:18

nickel tin and tungsten

8:21

and the deal was as this as search is

8:24

over the next ten years between nineteen eighty

8:26

and ninety and the price

8:28

of these five medals became

8:31

more expensive they became

8:33

scarce women

8:35

would pay early but if they became

8:37

cheaper then early

8:40

would pay simon swell the

8:42

beds came to an end in the

8:44

ninety nineteen september twenty nine ninety

8:46

ninety and be inflation

8:48

adjusted price of these five

8:50

medals dropped by thirty six

8:52

percent in spite of the fact the

8:55

population of the world rose by almost

8:57

and billion and

8:59

an artifact it they both agreed

9:01

that that would be the basket they would bet on

9:04

actually early two picks to the the basketball

9:06

scientists are yellow simon was sir

9:09

simon was saw was generous enough

9:11

he said ehrlich

9:13

pick any five companies or any do

9:15

any five commodities you want and those were the ones that

9:18

are like baked

9:20

what what's so interesting about that i think

9:22

what is many many things that are interesting about about

9:24

one of the things that so interesting is that

9:27

you might infer from that that in

9:29

order to put your notion

9:32

forward as a scientific hypothesis

9:34

you actually have to bind it with a timeframe

9:37

you can't just say well at some point

9:39

in the future of the population could expand

9:41

to the point where we consume all our resources

9:43

like well what do you mean you mean a year

9:46

ten years honored the thousand ten

9:48

thousand one hundred and fifty thousand

9:50

a million you mean you get that the whole

9:52

time frame for you to be right or

9:54

know are you accurate enough in your knowledge so

9:57

that you can actually pin it down

9:59

that

9:59

they within a decade or something some

10:02

reasonable fraction of a human life at least

10:04

so because i mean the biologists

10:07

to when they responded to that bad

10:09

because it was quite the cultural what

10:12

moment in some sense that simon

10:14

one

10:15

the rejoinder from the june

10:18

types was while we were by

10:20

a few decades and that's why we lost

10:22

it, isn't that we're wrong it's just that

10:24

these things are complex and or time was

10:26

wrong your time frames wrong,

10:28

then you siri, wrong and

10:31

if you can't play the timeframe around it in

10:33

your theories so weak that use just be quiet

10:36

about it and guy think the same thing applies

10:38

always climate

10:39

doom is well it's like specify

10:42

we can it's too complex where they could terrifying

10:45

everyone

10:46

you know one another thing that was interesting about

10:48

it is sir you know as professors

10:51

we get to say all kinds of things and never

10:53

be really held accountable for it and

10:55

so putting money putting money table

10:58

you know also added this really interesting

11:00

dimension to it is now is that the framed

11:02

in time it's framed with with the bat

11:05

though

11:06

to hold this guy accountable

11:08

for his search for his claim

11:10

them in in the game organisers reputation

11:13

less you do right to that was a very public bath

11:15

and it was

11:16

it wasn't so famous when they first

11:19

made it

11:20

but by the time it came around for the

11:22

bet to be settled and i would say this is particularly

11:24

true julian simon who we should talk about

11:27

for a moment on

11:29

all ehrlich's pretty smart biologists

11:32

julian simon was a genius so

11:35

that's useful for people to know to i mean he

11:37

was a truly outstanding mind the

11:40

for him to be optimistic in the face

11:42

of what was almost a universal pessimism

11:45

in the late sixties early seventies around

11:47

while the possibility of nuclear war and

11:49

certainly the possibility of overpopulation

11:52

and they might mean it just am

11:54

and environmental degradation and all

11:56

of that was that

11:58

that apocalyptic that was what everyone

12:01

who the rated themselves

12:03

out informed

12:05

and you know properly skeptically

12:07

pessimistic they're operating that

12:09

is more a virtue and for saw me to come out say

12:11

know you guys just

12:13

like elon musk know come out and talking

12:16

about how

12:17

one of the biggest problem could be sad

12:19

as and next hundred years is the population

12:21

which i happen to believe is true i

12:23

also think he's dead on with his criticisms

12:25

about the un population

12:28

predictions i think the u n

12:30

predictions are there is no evidence they're

12:32

accurate at all when even if they are

12:34

we can handle the nine to ten

12:36

billion people that the probably pick out

12:39

the united nation has been historically

12:42

i'm quite , that

12:44

the that the their numbers have have

12:47

have not as stood the time

12:49

of the test of time time are other

12:51

a demographer demographers in the world

12:53

to who have done a better job at predicting a

12:55

where the black populations going to be and

12:58

the latest debate on this is

13:00

er een er which

13:02

predicts of that saw by the

13:04

or twenty one hundred we are either going to have

13:06

nine billion people in the world we

13:08

are currently on eight or on

13:11

billion people in the world

13:13

so have you know it's it's perfectly

13:15

possible at the end of the century that will be as many

13:17

people in the world people down out of

13:19

obviously the fuck out in the future you you you

13:21

go are dealt with the less clear

13:23

of those predictions are about those

13:26

another thing that i want to mention about julian sign

13:28

of the because you express an interest in learning more

13:30

about him it wasn't just that he was right

13:32

but he was facing a lot of person

13:34

in that safe of rome from

13:36

that great and good he was regularly

13:38

cold and idiots and a fool would

13:40

he know what i have a early

13:42

car famously said that so to explain

13:45

a biology to simon to like

13:47

trying to explain of

13:50

, oil market to a cranberry

13:52

all sorts of other things early

13:54

continue to receive throughout his life ah

13:57

other things of very prestigious academic

13:59

prizes only recently

14:01

he was invited to vatican vatican of all

14:03

places to give a talk on the danger of overpopulation

14:06

that was like three years ago so

14:08

i'm in spite of being while you know

14:10

you don't want to have too many souls deceive

14:13

but of being wrong all the time he just

14:15

keeps on being highly highly

14:18

, revered at this one more thing

14:20

i do want to say and then i'll i

14:22

think i will handy to or gail because

14:25

jail jail a

14:27

do a good job of explaining why

14:29

we thought that we could improve

14:31

on the bed bugs

14:34

or of the bugs or i want to

14:37

talk about is that in spite of the fact that

14:39

early last based barry visible

14:43

and very humiliating wager, with, with

14:45

simon the idea of overpopulation

14:47

never went anywhere

14:50

yes in varmint movement

14:52

is is incredibly complex people who are

14:54

extremely smart and ends and

14:56

well-intentioned, like, for example of

14:59

a longboard or

15:01

steven pinker, they mean, well, they

15:04

are interested in in technology solutions

15:06

to climate and i count

15:09

myself in in, in that kind of of

15:11

sort of universe but verizon

15:14

extremists environmentally subtext

15:16

or or a subgroup in

15:18

environmentalism who who

15:21

are who have these apocalyptic obsessions

15:24

or so for example a and and

15:26

this one gets translated into the movies

15:28

which billions of people see around the

15:30

world in our in our book we talk

15:32

about how and with

15:34

every decade since the nineteen fifties the member

15:37

of apocalyptic movies has been actually increasing

15:40

which is which is the exact opposite of what

15:42

is happening on earth the earth is getting richer

15:44

healthier a in some ways

15:46

that is even environmental improvement but there are more

15:48

and more movies about how the world is going

15:51

to and in and

15:53

some sort of a catastrophe catastrophic an

15:55

apocalypse and one of them is a very

15:57

them is one of that was the and

16:00

infinity war which was seen by

16:02

some like everything american and that

16:04

and that movie plot is

16:06

about is a a a

16:09

who who has these

16:11

malthusian or early and ideas

16:14

you have to kill half of population

16:17

of the universe in order so that the

16:19

other half can survive and

16:21

so this is not an academic debate

16:24

people around the world are being said

16:26

the diet of mazuz the on his i'm

16:28

almost daily basis

16:30

you know what was interesting one of the things that was

16:32

interesting about that marvel

16:34

movie an interesting about the marvel pantheon

16:36

in general this list of that ounces

16:38

of as a derivation of san atone

16:40

so he's a figure of death the

16:43

in the marvel movie and you might have expected

16:45

this given our pop culture

16:48

the in the marvel movie panels

16:50

is clearly a villain and that's

16:52

interesting because even though there is this apocalyptic

16:54

don't to the movie

16:56

the the villain his job is

16:58

in theory that half of everything

17:00

else to die in order for the other have to drive

17:03

he's put forward and even in a devil's

17:05

advocate sort of ways but it's clear that

17:07

he's an enemy and up and it's one

17:09

of the things that was so interesting about the marvel

17:12

bounty on is that if

17:14

you look at it quite carefully it's not

17:16

politically correct and it's not apocalyptic

17:19

the the the movie for example

17:21

scarlett johansson last movie the the

17:23

biggest black widow she

17:26

had an unbelievably politically incorrect character

17:28

sheet of the real and texas' of this

17:31

apocalyptic doomsaying

17:33

hyper agreeable culture that that

17:36

as produce to sort of movies that you describe

17:38

like soylent green and i thought that

17:40

was extremely interesting because i think there is adorning

17:42

recognition at the level of

17:44

public fantasy that these

17:47

com

17:48

purveyors of do not

17:50

only wrong but perhaps murderously

17:52

wrong and that we've been led down the garden

17:54

path and

17:55

in an interpreter

17:56

the way for about four decades or five

17:58

decades

17:59

or

17:59

one more thing to say about that you guys can tell

18:02

me what think this is that i

18:04

think part of the reason to that we see

18:07

this apocalyptic vision popping

18:09

up so much now isn't so much

18:11

because the apocalypse is nice in

18:13

in in a sense it in that we're doomed

18:16

to it is that things are changing

18:18

so fast that in some

18:20

sense the destruction of

18:22

everything we know is always upon

18:25

us what are you willing

18:27

to make a prediction about what your life is gonna

18:29

be like ten years in the future in

18:31

in it in in many regards mean technologies

18:34

changed our lives so much and as

18:36

of happening so quickly that it's unparalleled

18:39

and so i think we all feel like well who were on

18:41

the edge of precipitous changed and

18:43

it it might be terrible but while

18:45

your point is it might also be extremely good

18:48

and and that we could directed that way

18:50

the i would just add to that that we're we're on

18:52

this cost of exponential

18:54

creative destruction right

18:57

way we're we're having this this destruction but we're

18:59

also having this trade timothy nicely

19:02

on a steeper curve the

19:04

destructive car

19:05

well that's what i'm hoping do you know when

19:07

i go to my lectures i'm trying to tell people

19:10

look we've got you've got everything we could

19:12

possibly want in front of us if we are smart

19:14

enough to reach out and take it if we if we want

19:16

it so much of this environmentalism

19:18

that you've described the and

19:21

i think your work is such a good antidote to

19:23

doesn't seem to me to be pro flourishing

19:26

it's

19:27

there's an anti jew

19:28

the element to it a hatred of humanity

19:30

that

19:31

that i think is deeply

19:33

pathological and resentful and

19:35

i think the fact that there

19:38

are like ideas about population

19:40

excess are still so popularly

19:45

trumpeted forward as a as

19:47

as the only ethical attitude towards

19:49

the problem of humanity is an indication

19:52

of the depths of that while some of it's

19:54

malevolent as far as i'm concerned like i've heard

19:56

environmentalists say many of them say

19:58

though they're to me people on the planet

20:01

the planet would be better off as it was only

20:03

a billion people on the

20:05

human beings are cancer on the face of the earth

20:07

in or were like a virus that multiplies uncheck

20:10

the mean she says guys seriously man

20:12

watch your language you know

20:15

interesting that you bring that up to zoom zoom

20:17

just nineteen seventy three ehrlich comes

20:19

out with his book and sixty eight

20:22

seventy three they come out with

20:24

limits to growth as club or brown does

20:26

an interesting the seventy three was

20:28

also the year that sandals was introduced

20:31

in the comic book so the culture

20:33

was kind of do and this thing in

20:36

math club or rule rome they come out with

20:38

this argument that says like populations

20:41

gonna do this we're all going to collapse

20:43

the population didn't do this and then

20:45

so they shifted and said well we seem

20:47

to be okay ah that

20:49

it's pollution this gonna do this and we're going to class

20:52

and then pollution goes the other way

20:54

they say well we're going to redefine our model

20:56

now too it's

20:58

not pollution regular define the c

21:01

o two as pollution

21:03

the a deep redefining the model to be

21:05

able to predict this collapse and it's like whoa

21:07

whoa what are you guys get to do here

21:11

we can we do is human population

21:13

continues to do this and we life

21:15

expectancy on in abundance continues

21:17

to grow and in spite of your modeling

21:20

are you know we gotta psychological problem on

21:22

our hands your i think some degree it might

21:24

be that view

21:27

human beings are unique and we we could speak

21:29

biologically here i suppose in that we

21:31

really do were the only creatures that really

21:33

do apprehend our own sen the

21:36

know and so in some sense we

21:38

are seth and

21:40

possessed by the apocalyptic vision because

21:43

we all know that we're going to die

21:45

each of us in that all the all the people we

21:47

know we're going to die that everything we know is

21:49

going to come to an end

21:51

so

21:52

that's their as a reality and in the question

21:55

is well that's a fundamental reality we try to

21:57

stay that off the we try to stabilize things

21:59

and we try to me our our economy's

22:01

productive in sustainable and so

22:03

that we don't die but we know that

22:05

we're fighting a losing battle

22:07

and

22:08

it isn't

22:09

we don't understand how that fundamental

22:12

knowledge of finity the

22:15

endless source of the generation of apocalyptic

22:17

fantasies or how to manage that

22:19

in any real sense don't be give

22:21

it is the case that we while we certainly do

22:23

face limits personally

22:26

limits of mortality

22:28

let me talk time limits of time limit when

22:30

of time when she's actually which is

22:32

the one resource which is actually getting scarcer

22:34

right right

22:36

right law as as is will leave i've been be

22:38

obese you live longer but if you see the one

22:41

scary source we know that that it will

22:43

it'll come to an empty

22:44

right and and there's only a limp there's a real

22:46

limit to what we can do to save that off

22:49

even if we generate a tremendous amount

22:51

of money well we expand

22:53

our time right so

22:55

each each second becomes more valuable

22:57

in some senses you wage

22:59

that's and and the concept of time

23:01

is really fundamental to our

23:03

to i'll watch because ah

23:06

well i handed over to to gail but essentially

23:08

we were dissatisfied with

23:10

the ah with with the wager

23:12

between an odd between

23:15

ehrlich and simon we thought

23:17

we could do something the

23:19

a little more interesting and a little

23:21

different and i think

23:24

gail and will be able to explain

23:26

but unlike

23:27

though or even simon's first party talks

23:30

about or one of his first book she talks about

23:32

looking at the price of thing the money price

23:34

of things and , prom with money

23:37

is money loses its value

23:39

overtime typically so you have to make this

23:41

adjustment back to real

23:43

dollars versus nominal dollars but

23:46

he also mentioned this interesting thing this said

23:49

you know wouldn't compare to time and he said

23:51

well how much money can you earn in

23:53

an hour of time in and take that

23:55

and compared to the price of thing so he talked

23:58

about the idea of time prices

23:59

so that kind of picked or interest

24:02

a little bit and then there was also a

24:04

nobel prize ,

24:06

economist william nordhaus who did

24:08

this really interesting study about the price

24:10

of light and , look

24:12

at what it costs you to earn the

24:15

money to buy one hour's worth of why

24:17

the and you can measure like in lumens and

24:20

though he does is studying is a slight is

24:22

this doing this

24:24

you are you said in your book

24:25

good that it's so amazing

24:27

to think of this is that

24:30

one electric one hundred watt electric

24:32

light bulb the equivalent

24:35

in terms of light generation

24:37

of seventeen thousand candles

24:40

i mean not a lot of candles and then i

24:43

you made some comments to about how

24:45

much labor in terms of time it took

24:47

two the not many candles

24:49

and you can imagine even now seventeen

24:52

thousand candles specially

24:54

if they're made of wild bees wax or something

24:56

like that that that's not inexpensive

24:58

yeah so i mean you if you go back to eighteen

25:01

you know we go back to eighteen hundred and it

25:03

took three i had to work three hours during

25:05

the money to buy one hour worth of light

25:08

in so the current prices three hours

25:11

for one hour today it's like one zero

25:13

point one six

25:15

six seconds of time

25:17

never managed they might so it was like

25:19

we think we were we want to point out what this

25:21

means to because prior to

25:24

the dawn of inexpensive light and

25:26

also this obtains in many places in the

25:28

world now

25:29

the fact that there was no light seriously

25:32

be limited the number of hours you could spend working

25:34

joy when you're buying like

25:36

you're not just buying like you buying

25:39

time to be productive you can't read

25:41

without life you get right without life

25:44

you can't

25:44

it's

25:47

hard for people to imagine this because we're never

25:49

were never played by darkness favour

25:52

anymore ever and you

25:54

know maybe we suffered from the absence of the night

25:56

sky and i think we do but light

25:58

is

25:59

there's basically free and that means

26:02

that we have many more hours per

26:04

day the you know the other thing i

26:07

that really struck me in that regard wasn't

26:09

your work though but other many

26:12

people have comment on this is the absolutely

26:14

revolutionary consequence of inventing

26:17

eyeglasses for people because many

26:20

the boy medieval europe on obviously

26:22

across the world

26:24

had to do close work like

26:26

taylor's and when they're when they lost

26:28

their ability to see close like you

26:30

do when you need reading glasses they couldn't work anymore

26:33

this simple

26:35

tempo technological innovation

26:37

of glasses you know added fifteen

26:39

years of productivity to people's lives

26:42

and then light well that adds what four hours

26:44

of productivity per day and it's

26:46

free you re what we one of the

26:48

things i really like about your your work

26:50

is that you help me

26:52

understand and communicate

26:54

people just how rich we are we're

26:56

so rich we don't even know how rich we

26:58

are

27:00

well that's right arm ah i

27:02

think are you know you talked about lights

27:04

and the proximity which is cause very important

27:07

that if you didn't have light you didn't have anything

27:09

else i mean there was no entertainment's

27:11

are obviously there was nothing on tv no no

27:13

tv as you said you couldn't you couldn't

27:16

read most

27:19

, lived in absolute poverty so they really

27:21

couldn't afford a candle

27:23

and therefore once the sun

27:25

said you just went to bed

27:28

yeah in the cold and so and

27:30

so i'm gail mentions or

27:33

the dot the concept of time price and i

27:35

think it's very important that we'd splendid

27:37

in greater depth

27:38

so here's the deal or in a we

27:40

we we buy things with money but

27:42

we really pay for them with our time

27:45

though their money prices in their

27:47

time prices and it's

27:49

pretty it's pretty easy to convert the money

27:51

price to time price you just take the

27:54

money pricing divided by hourly into

27:57

though for example of something cause

27:59

the twenty where's and you're earning twenty dollars

28:01

an hour the price that is one hour

28:04

the money prices are expressed in dollars

28:06

and cents time prices have

28:08

expressed in hours minutes and

28:10

this offers you know number of features

28:12

first of all

28:14

we go to this universal standard time

28:17

it's not it's not you

28:19

can't the counterfeit the counterfeit can inflate

28:21

it it's this constant flow so

28:24

everybody recognizes what an hour is

28:26

we have this kind of perfectly quality

28:28

of time we get twenty four hours a day

28:30

yeah not independent of any real

28:32

socio cultural differences it's

28:35

be because while we all suffer from

28:37

the same degree of finity you'd in some sense

28:39

it's so

28:40

yeah it i'm amazed well i can't leave

28:43

this

28:44

i know that

28:46

it's a very tricky business for any

28:48

the academic enterprise to get it's

28:50

fundamental units of measurement correct

28:53

it's it's of absolutely crucial

28:55

importance that that began like the periodic table

28:57

of the elements for chemists for example and

29:00

maybe the five zoc personality model for

29:02

psychologists

29:04

the or and argues well the fundamental

29:07

measurements and so but it is kind

29:09

of surprising to me that

29:11

economists types didn't figure this out until

29:13

recently like what what was in

29:15

the way will , simon

29:17

had gonna figured out in actually adam

29:19

smith talked about this in his

29:22

is welcome the wealth of nations

29:24

he talked about the fact that we have

29:26

to buy things with our labor which is really

29:28

are time time you know the other

29:30

features time i think we got was seven

29:33

universal standards of measurements six

29:35

of those seven all go back to time

29:37

so we're trying to move were

29:39

kind of moves the thinking back to this

29:41

universal standard of time once

29:44

you've established time price minutes

29:46

established the comparison that time price over that

29:49

you know it cost me one hour a year ago

29:52

today it only cost me forty five minutes

29:54

you know so the the percentage change

29:56

in that time price is really what

29:58

what we should work and in is

30:01

the ratio of the races that we

30:03

we look at

30:05

you know or if something is

30:07

a go seventy five percent

30:09

off for example a psycho okay seventy five

30:12

percent off that's that's interesting that means

30:14

for the for the time that it

30:16

used to take to earn one unit

30:18

now i get for no going

30:20

from it's a seventy five percent decrease

30:22

bet you think about the other way

30:24

it's actually a three hundred percent increase

30:27

in your been it's because i i

30:29

used to get one hour your for right

30:31

for right is a moral claims there's a moral claim

30:33

here do that we should be very careful to make

30:35

explicit i would say which is

30:38

we've accepted the proposition

30:40

that something is worth having

30:42

the word it's useful and

30:45

are justifiable

30:46

you assume that if weekend produce

30:49

that more efficiently that's good right

30:52

no do things seem to go right together so

30:54

because we i think when you're trying to

30:56

nail down something like fundamental measurements you

30:58

have to nail down all the way to the ground if we agree

31:00

that there are good thanks to house the

31:03

we have good and have as agreements that we're

31:05

also going to breathe that if we can get

31:08

good things to have

31:10

with last expenditure of the most fundamental

31:12

resource that also constituted

31:14

a good that would part be partly

31:16

because while there lots of good things

31:19

we like a need to have and so if we

31:21

have more time we can get more them to

31:23

though

31:24

there's really no way of subverting

31:26

this claim i would say if you accept

31:28

the initial proposition that there are good things

31:30

that you know we can ensure that

31:33

yeah exactly so once

31:35

we once we kinda got this time price figured

31:38

out and said you know we should take all of these are

31:40

prices we have and

31:42

convert them to time prices and then see what happens

31:45

so we go back to simonds original

31:47

bat were kind of inspired by that

31:49

and one of the critiques of simonds

31:51

work was you know you were just lucky

31:54

simon because it was only for ten

31:56

years and it was only for five commodities

31:59

and so well one it we expand it from

32:01

five to fifty though

32:03

we went beyond just these metals and we

32:06

went to energy we will look

32:08

at food we looked at materials we looked

32:10

at other mental sweet fill up this dataset

32:12

of fifty commodities that are

32:14

tracked by the

32:17

world bank tracks these prices the

32:19

so we in the the the

32:21

we could go back in time and look at all other data

32:24

there's a guy i gotta i gotta ask your political

32:26

question real quick about that

32:28

so you know i'm

32:31

obsessed with measurement is i was the second patrician

32:33

when i used to be a university professor when

32:35

i'm still possible and ah i've

32:38

always been skeptical of the measures that politicians

32:41

used to as the economy

32:44

both unemployment i'm skeptical that measure

32:46

i'm very skeptical of inflation measures ignoring

32:49

it up themselves but i'm not convinced that those

32:51

are sufficiently valid measures

32:53

reliable a ballot measures to base our

32:55

entire economic analysis on and so i'm

32:57

wondering is if

32:58

if you convert

33:00

from the cost

33:02

who

33:03

the last in time and standardized

33:05

in that matter

33:07

the new then rank order countries

33:09

they would you take our like say a fifty commodity

33:12

random sample of fundamental

33:15

goods can you then

33:17

chart a progress graph

33:20

of of countries relative

33:22

move towards prosperity and you

33:25

do that year by year can you drive yearly indexes

33:27

and are though is that a good replacement for something

33:29

like

33:30

inflation in the inflation rate

33:32

assessments

33:34

good take a look at page one forty two we've

33:36

got we got forty two

33:38

countries that we've done that

33:40

where

33:41

though we go from

33:43

argentina to the united states

33:46

and look at all these different countries and major

33:48

what their income

33:50

is doing their hourly income is doing

33:52

with these commodity prices commodity would go back

33:54

alright man

33:55

yeah the world being commodity prices you

33:58

know those are public prices so

33:59

but there's no disagreement that these were the prices

34:02

of those commodities and then the next

34:04

question is what do you use for the denominator

34:07

below you , use all a

34:09

countries local reported average

34:12

hourly income in this

34:14

case we were trying to get a

34:16

number that we could use as a proxy

34:18

for a whole planet in

34:20

what we finally came up with

34:22

as lists like a gdp per capita

34:25

per hour so how much

34:27

you have generated on the planet

34:30

for our worked

34:31

in would use that is it index or a

34:33

proxy for how productive people

34:36

getting because we also know that with innovation

34:38

a curse it's shows up both

34:40

and lower prices and higher

34:42

incomes so yeah

34:46

it's important that the time prices reaction

34:48

capturing both of those values because

34:50

it's the ratio of those two numbers so

34:52

time prices actually contain more information

34:55

than just than money price

34:57

so this graph or this graph these data

35:00

this data that you talked about on

35:02

page one forty two you show

35:04

for example that changing

35:06

resource time price in china it was

35:08

not point it's negative ninety seven point

35:11

five percent and charges at the top the list

35:13

and so there's tremendous number of developing

35:15

countries

35:16

they're leaping forward so

35:19

but but it's i would also suspect

35:21

the maybe this is wrong but tell me if it can

35:23

weave it's read wrong

35:26

there must be low hanging fruit

35:28

to some degree when a country does

35:30

emerge from

35:32

the agrarian past let's say a non

35:34

industrial past the into an industrial

35:36

present

35:37

the

35:39

hurry up it's markets and move into the

35:41

modern

35:42

capitalist age free market age

35:44

so

35:45

try to south korea sri lanka ireland

35:48

as extraordinarily well there

35:50

any way of adjusting now for baseline prosperity

35:53

i mean the americans have done is was the chinese

35:55

but they started off a lot better let's

35:57

say in the last century

35:58

right

35:59

make those comparisons you can put them side

36:02

by side i think that's the interesting thing for

36:04

us as one of the slopes don't in these different

36:06

countries i mean yeah

36:08

the united states has got this this this

36:10

lower rate of growth spurt all

36:13

of these other countries are catching up at such

36:15

of a rapid rate dead there's

36:17

none of these countries are actually going the other direction

36:20

yeah something

36:22

yeah there it really is so now

36:26

that another

36:27

no the key with china is to

36:29

remember that saw china and

36:31

india china has done spectacularly

36:33

well over the last forty

36:36

years and

36:38

and us so his india it's very

36:40

important to remember that those two countries

36:42

were actually the most populous

36:44

countries at the time when they were super

36:47

super poor in other words

36:49

if you raise if know if you had shown

36:51

i nineteen sixties or indiana to sixty

36:53

they already had math populations but

36:55

there was super bowl so what happens superabundance

36:59

is not simply and outcome old adding

37:01

more people to the world although that's important

37:04

the people times freedom

37:06

will give you a very high rates of economic

37:08

growth now i'm not suggesting for a second

37:10

that i'm not suggesting for a second the try nice

37:12

a free society but what i am saying wow

37:14

it's comparatively free comparative

37:16

what it was it's it is much

37:19

freer than what it was when mouth

37:21

killed forty five million of his saw

37:23

fellow citizens and other

37:25

things have another reason why

37:27

at this research is kind of important is because

37:30

jail mentioned the club for growth report

37:32

club for growth was

37:35

raised by the chinese communist party in the nineteen

37:37

seventies yeah and behold i like

37:39

for how delightful between nineteen

37:41

eighty and two thousand and sixteen that they had

37:43

this one china policy in place

37:46

the chinese government is they boastful and

37:48

very proud that they have prevented

37:51

or extinguished four

37:53

hundred million births in china

37:56

between nineteen eighty and two thousand

37:58

and eighteen china as well as world

38:00

would be much more prosperous societies

38:02

if a if a if

38:05

if that hadn't happened but it it

38:07

was a spectacular spectacular

38:09

shot in the foot as you would expect from

38:11

the communist regimes because what they

38:14

are left with now is a very unstable

38:16

population a pyramid now

38:19

, whereby the the population is getting

38:22

old and there are not enough workers

38:24

to support the economy of the size that

38:27

they currently have so that yeah they also

38:29

have they plethora of men

38:31

which they're gonna pay for to that's how that's

38:33

a recipe for social instability

38:36

in like two thousand and sixteen it was

38:38

maybe it was two thousand and eight the

38:40

, the the the that

38:44

the sex ratio of peaked

38:46

at one hundred and twenty

38:48

chinese men

38:50

the hundred women

38:51

which means that twenty percent of

38:53

men in china could not hope to find

38:55

a chinese wife and those

38:57

very good evidence suggesting that men

39:00

who do not have not have

39:03

are much more likely to engage in criminal activities

39:06

yeah there's a very good evidence for that's

39:08

a one of them really killer things about this

39:10

graph on page hundred and forty two was you

39:13

have a cold they're entitled years

39:15

to double personal resource

39:18

abundance and so that by your criteria

39:20

how

39:21

rat how many years does it take for

39:23

you to have to work half as long to get

39:25

the same resource whatever that is starting

39:29

this is nineteen eighty to two thousand and eighteen

39:31

so basically a forty year period over

39:33

forty year period

39:35

china's the average years double person

39:38

resource abundance was seven unbelievable

39:41

but even countries like you list india

39:44

has this been new zealand

39:46

nineteen finland twenties

39:48

that's really certainly within the confines

39:51

of while

39:52

that that's for doublings in the average life

39:54

man it's deadly

39:56

they didn't even among developed countries

39:59

yeah it's really

40:00

in the average was saw the average was

40:02

twenty years now some

40:04

people may say that's a

40:06

doubling of personal abundance

40:09

now we're not talking about you know

40:11

we're we're talking about resources resources

40:13

include things like these rice

40:15

coffee p r mill

40:17

to our oranges bananas whatever now

40:20

, people may say that doubling of

40:22

abundance every twenty years is too

40:24

slow but this is where the class

40:27

athlete a cursory understanding of

40:29

history's very important people need

40:31

to understand that homo sapiens has been around

40:33

for three hundred thousand years and

40:36

our standard of living was stagnant

40:38

for tens or even hundreds

40:40

of thousands of us nothing has changed

40:42

exactly the same amount of food and resources

40:45

as your the are your parents could

40:47

buy you would be able to buy your children

40:49

would buy so by historical standards

40:52

the kind of appreciation in

40:54

the in abundance the kind of doubling of abundance

40:56

of twenty years is actually

40:59

voice calls voice calls

41:00

it is a miracle unparalleled

41:02

any the was really important to drive that point

41:05

home i mean

41:06

people think that

41:08

they began to think of human of change

41:10

in human societies as the norm and

41:13

that is in some sense

41:15

true compared do animal societies was just

41:17

don't change at all i mean a grizzly now

41:20

we can exactly the same as a grizzly was sixty

41:22

thousand years ago for all intents and purposes

41:24

but you know even in

41:27

very therefore doubly advanced

41:29

cultures like ancient egypt which

41:32

was a much faster developing the

41:35

country that say our society

41:37

that the typical stone age

41:40

society there were there were

41:42

periods of time in the egyptian

41:44

archaeological record that exceed

41:46

a thousand years where the zero

41:49

evidence of any technological change whatsoever

41:52

and so there are there

41:54

then if you go back let's say to

41:57

the cold stone age civilizations

42:00

there good anthropological evidence for the persistence

42:03

of some rituals

42:05

which were left a certain our

42:08

archaeological mark the

42:11

resistance of those rituals unchanged over

42:13

twenty thousand year period show the role

42:15

in biological systems is lock

42:18

of change at the cultural level and

42:20

even among human societies generally

42:22

speaking rate of change are unbelievably

42:25

slow and so for people to say

42:27

well you know doubling every twenty years is fast

42:29

enough it's like well a compared to what

42:31

and the other thing to think about the

42:34

how fast doubling do you think we can stand

42:37

you know because some of that is

42:40

i know you think wow oh no we're getting prosperous

42:42

too fast isn't that a problem is

42:44

that a problem you need to have the have

42:46

to have a problem but it is challenging

42:49

you know i mean the cover society's

42:51

changing so rapidly now it's actually hard

42:53

for people keep up with it

42:55

you know they give superannuated in some sense

42:57

so

42:59

in any case it's a remarkable it's a remarkable

43:01

said i'm observations and it's very difficult

43:03

to look at this

43:05

without

43:10

being being really sad i would

43:12

say in some sense that

43:15

we had to swallow

43:17

so much apocalyptic nonsense for so many

43:20

decades to the detriment of so many

43:22

when

43:23

the evidence is starkly clear

43:25

that more people in

43:27

freer markets solves all the problems

43:30

that everybody wants to solve faster than

43:32

anything we've ever produced by a large margin

43:35

i should like to point out of course that's awesome

43:38

whilst i'm cautiously

43:40

overheads rationally optimistic about the future

43:42

nothing in what gail ny rights

43:45

should be understood as a guarantee

43:47

that sars things will go on

43:49

improving in the future at the rates

43:51

that we have seen before ah

43:53

you know in our conclusion of the book we

43:56

identify three critical problems

43:58

to montana a supra the

44:00

growth or the way we should we should probably it's

44:02

at some point odd define what we mean

44:04

by superabundance but but the

44:06

three the importance of

44:09

components of how how we can ensure that superman's

44:11

continues well first of all we

44:14

cannot have a population collapse or

44:17

which is something that elon musk hour commute

44:19

to warn against now

44:21

in the book we don't say that

44:24

so you know we don't take a we don't think a position

44:26

on what is the optimal size all of

44:28

the world's population ah but

44:30

what we do say he said parents

44:32

when they're making decisions about having babies

44:35

that those decisions are not made in

44:37

a vacuum when

44:39

that when parents when parents told that bring

44:41

in additional child into the society

44:44

is a crime that you are hurting the planet

44:47

and the rest of your species or it's

44:49

it's that's what parents saying

44:51

that of course that will have an impact

44:53

on their of fecundity and

44:56

, insects we now have studies or

44:58

that had been conducted or other opinion polls

45:00

that had been conducted over the last four years

45:03

years they show that people do take

45:05

environmental apocalyptic travel warnings

45:08

into account when making decisions

45:10

about what to have babies have the

45:12

the second created that the second problem

45:15

of that's we need to avoid if we are going to

45:17

remain superabundance is of course freedom

45:19

of speech freedom of speech is

45:21

absolutely a fundamentally does not only

45:23

fundamental on a on a personal level

45:26

ah if level cannot speak

45:28

freely you cannot think freely you can express

45:30

yourself release or but on release societal

45:33

level if you're following an

45:35

idea of the following like lemmings

45:37

do you know it like

45:39

be a bad idea is a

45:42

if it's as if it's a bad idea then you're going

45:44

to end up like going off the cliff rights

45:47

that was the problem in communist societies

45:49

communist grew up on the commons and part of my life and

45:52

dot because we didn't have freedom of speech people

45:54

couldn't point out that the society was

45:56

actually stagnating and stagnating some ways

45:58

be progressing and we couldn't

46:00

come up with a way of resolving

46:03

our problems and get on

46:05

on a on a on a on a better path and

46:07

that is why a speech codes

46:09

and banning of expression

46:11

of ideas no matter how ah

46:14

no matter how offensive you may find them actual

46:16

helio centrism was offensive at one

46:18

point in the past that but if we prevent

46:20

these ideas from being aired then we

46:23

don't know really some of the may be very good

46:25

and we should we should we should remember them into

46:27

in the third we , learn from them

46:30

and the thirds of a potential problem

46:32

for superabundance is of course it's if

46:34

the markets markets a destroyed

46:36

so overregulation or socialization

46:39

and reason for that is very is markets

46:42

provides us with

46:44

signals about what's valuable and

46:46

what's not markets allows to see

46:49

which innovation saab or

46:51

going to be useful and which innovations are going

46:53

to be useless this is what's called a price

46:55

mechanism are in are free market economy

46:57

prices to do exactly what you need more

46:59

of like baby formula and united states

47:02

or i'm in open the oil and gas

47:04

when the oil up the you need to produce more

47:06

of that but saw his government

47:08

right and nasa nasa signal we should point

47:10

out that is so important people understand

47:13

you know you drew a

47:14

connection between

47:16

free speech and free thought

47:18

people often think of free speech as

47:21

hayden is degrade in some sense i'd

47:23

he i in every other yahoo gets exactly

47:25

what we want whenever we want and the maybe

47:27

that's for our own in own enjoyment

47:30

but that's not exactly because

47:32

there isn't any difference between speech and thought

47:35

in the technical sense much

47:37

of the thought that we undertake

47:39

we undertaken discussions like this where were

47:41

exchanging ideas and modifying them and communicating

47:45

that free speech is thought and

47:47

then the question is

47:48

well what thought

47:50

the announcer that is well that's how we abstract

47:53

li adapt to the horizon of the future

47:55

before we actually adapt to it so

47:58

we try out new idea is

48:00

that might match what's coming out

48:02

is that unpredictable in this virtual

48:05

space that characterized by the

48:07

exchange of thought

48:08

we don't have to die by making the wrong

48:11

decisions when

48:12

when we're actually forced to act and i

48:14

would say we can make that a biological plate

48:17

because the prefrontal

48:19

cortex which is the home of abstract

48:22

thought grew out of the motor cortex and

48:24

it's purpose is to run simulations

48:26

of the world

48:28

simulations of potential auction patterns

48:30

in the world before you implement

48:32

them so that you can weed out the deadly

48:35

ones and not implement that and so we actually

48:37

evolved in it are part of our brain

48:39

which we use socially

48:41

you

48:42

the will bad ideas before they kill us

48:44

and so then if you interfere with free speech

48:47

you'll get to do that and

48:49

free speech is associated with the free markets

48:51

it is crucial way that you

48:54

described because it is

48:56

very difficult to know what's going to be valuable

48:58

next as things change

49:01

the way we do that is we subject

49:03

that computation

49:04

who are massive cognitive instrument

49:07

which is the free market

49:09

hundreds of millions of people are making decisions

49:11

all the time right on the edge

49:13

of change

49:15

the we know the price of something where

49:17

whereas caught up with the future as we can

49:19

possibly be so we had we

49:21

interfere with out at our great peril because

49:24

there is a cognitive mechanism that keeps us updated

49:27

i would simply add to that and then i will handed

49:29

over to gail is that free

49:31

speech and free markets a learning

49:33

mechanisms when you say something

49:35

which is stupid somebody else can say

49:38

well that if she doesn't work and if you are

49:40

smart you're going to internalize

49:42

that com and and you're never going to you

49:44

know express that you again you're going to internalize

49:47

deaths that the truths and

49:49

in the market is a learning mechanism as

49:51

well provided that it's free so

49:53

it can indicate what works

49:55

and what doesn't know

49:57

is free so it's very

49:59

right so or i think that the

50:02

you know making this connection between free speech

50:04

and in the market

50:06

is it really it's this idea that

50:08

wealth is fundamentally knowledge

50:12

that's the growth the knowledge that distinguishes

50:15

us from the stone age it's entirely due

50:17

to the growth of knowledge and this is appointed

50:19

the when our friends george gilder

50:22

makes he says wealth of knowledge growth

50:24

is learning and money as time

50:27

in from those three propositions we can

50:29

derive this theorem that you can measure

50:31

the growth of knowledge with time

50:33

so it's really you know how do we

50:35

grow knowledge

50:37

rather is also what there's also a definition

50:39

of knowledge it's that's rooted in there to some

50:41

degree because you might say well

50:44

if you can do

50:46

the same amount and half the time you know twice

50:48

as smart

50:49

twice as much knowledge that's like a definition

50:52

right price the not the knowledge

50:54

you'd have to defy knowledge is useful in relationship

50:57

to something which might be the production of something

50:59

of value and so if you could do that twice

51:01

as fast or with half as many resources

51:04

especially time while then

51:06

your knowledge is doubled that's by definition

51:08

in some real sense right

51:10

the we define abundance is

51:12

this measurement of

51:15

time prices as they relate to

51:17

your audi you must be adding more knowledge

51:19

either making the price the money prices

51:22

lower or you're increasing income redoing

51:24

the combination of both because it takes

51:26

you less and less time to earn

51:28

the money to buy that thing and it's a consequence

51:30

of this growth and knowledge and

51:32

that growth and knowledge it comes from

51:34

all over the place it's not just researchers

51:37

in a lab it's it's just

51:39

not professors it's everybody

51:41

on the planet is contributing is little

51:43

bits and pieces of knowledge all the time

51:46

while look you can tell i'm

51:48

always i always find it a miracle to go

51:50

to home depot especially the tool

51:52

i'll

51:53

you know when using you walk down a dual ireland there's

51:55

like five thousand tons of passengers

51:58

then you think what what does that mean

51:59

that means that some somebody

52:03

generally mail

52:04

has found some no problem

52:07

when he was hanging up

52:09

pictures on a wall or try to get a

52:11

bold off of are particularly recalcitrant

52:13

piece of machinery or some little

52:15

practical problems and then spent

52:17

untold hours figuring out how

52:20

that could just be made better and then you

52:22

just have shelves and shelves and shells and shelves

52:24

and rows and rows and rows of that

52:27

and like i learned does i've done waterhouse renovations

52:29

and that sort of thing i learned that if it if

52:32

our construction job is difficult

52:34

that means you didn't find the right to up because

52:36

someone out there as figure out do that

52:38

body could certainly see that with can obviously

52:41

with computer software as well so

52:43

it is miraculous that this that this case

52:46

that's another definition what a market is the

52:48

market is a place we go to find people can

52:50

solve your problem better the new consult

52:53

right right right right right okay

52:55

so let's walk through your boss you get a little bit

52:57

in more detail shall we

53:01

the hurt you after

53:03

it's a part one is panels is deadly idea

53:05

from antiquity the of the president beyond and

53:07

so that's the about this idea of missing intrinsic

53:09

limit of growth and the fundamental pathology

53:12

of human population and so we've we've kind

53:14

of dispense with that fairly effectively

53:17

are we in the midst of progress are we facing

53:19

the apocalypse well probably

53:21

both but certainly were in the midst progress

53:24

the

53:26

and we've covered sandwiches intellectual

53:28

and practical progenitors and julian simon

53:30

and the bet that made him

53:32

amos and then part to measuring

53:35

abundance new methodology empirical evidence

53:37

and indepth analysis the

53:39

so let's go over the simon abundance framework

53:41

because you both on specific work on that

53:44

and make his or anything that we've started

53:46

to cover have recovered and enough for are

53:48

the more things you want people to know about

53:51

married he wanted to that i died i think only

53:53

i leave that to the i think illegal to

53:56

to gail yes you associate so we

53:58

go back to decide if time prices list hundred

54:00

everything to a time price and what allows

54:02

us to do in addition is we can apply

54:05

a time price to any product the

54:07

any place any time going

54:09

go back to france and eighteen hundred and forgot

54:11

what the time price was for loaf of bread

54:14

then i can compare it to the time price of an orange

54:16

a new york city or toronto today

54:19

so once we've created this time prices

54:21

for everything then let's see what

54:23

they're doing over time and

54:26

best the empirical so we've got this framework

54:28

this analytical framework to says use

54:30

these sir convert things to time

54:32

prices and then look at the changed and time

54:35

price over time and that will tell you

54:37

what's happening to individuals

54:39

what's what's happening in their life

54:41

in terms of their personal resource have been

54:44

it's and that is

54:46

just as measurement of

54:48

the car to this much time a

54:50

yesterday cause you this much time

54:52

today your been it's is increasing by

54:54

that ratio

54:55

the percentage change in that ratio

54:58

you know once again drops five seventy

55:00

five percent it means i get for for the price

55:02

one my personal been it's is increasing

55:05

by three hundred percent so

55:07

take the frameworks dot apply

55:09

to all of these commodity whatever

55:11

commodities finish good bicycles

55:14

drills and see

55:16

what's happened to these

55:19

home prices as know so let me

55:21

ask you about that these these commodities

55:24

that you've locked down

55:25

so let's first of all defined now so

55:27

so

55:28

we're assuming that

55:30

people

55:31

the choir and worked for things

55:34

they both need and want

55:36

and we're going to not

55:38

in a priori

55:40

the stance of a prairie judgment about that

55:43

we're going to assume there's all sorts of things that people

55:45

need and want

55:46

that there's no

55:48

externally reliable way of determining

55:50

what those should be and

55:52

so will let people make those decisions themselves

55:54

the and people will very

55:57

and be similar in some ways in relationship

55:59

to those

55:59

the

56:01

how do you ensure

56:02

that when you look out

56:05

the improvement in

56:07

the inefficiency in relationship to production

56:09

that you properly sampled the domain

56:12

of commodities

56:14

good question so we started with

56:16

this idea was just look at these basic

56:18

fundamental commodities but have not changed

56:20

over time a bushel of we a

56:23

ton of iron ore of

56:26

let's start with those because if we were going to go someplace

56:28

serve of be an awesome the ah

56:31

island off in the pacific what would you want

56:33

to take with or you want to have these

56:35

basic commodities that's where we came up

56:37

with his basic fifty and list

56:39

subject that basic fifty to

56:41

the hey i want to dig and i want to dig into that

56:43

more because it's really important right because this

56:46

is in some sense

56:47

the usual

56:48

are you randomly sampled

56:50

the environment right so for like

56:52

because you're trying to take a snapshot of

56:54

human progress and and

56:57

economic efficiency and we wanted we might wanna

56:59

sit we want will say well do you have the

57:01

thing you're taking a snapshot of properly

57:04

sample so you pick cst

57:06

why cst and which be

57:08

if the and how did you define basic

57:10

well we kind of go back to we start

57:12

with ehrlich's in simon's

57:14

burton's has lost look at those five kids

57:16

they both kind of ehrlich sedwill these are five

57:19

nonrenewable that you

57:21

know who they should run out right it

57:23

is or nonrenewable was but those was lists

57:25

expand that's been was jump out

57:27

the energy less like a crude oil what's

57:30

the price of a barrel of oil in

57:32

all for the last we got really good date on

57:34

the bearable oil it represents is fundamental

57:36

unit of measurement in terms of of

57:39

the price of energy

57:40

enamel sad food too what's

57:42

and other materials to a so what's the

57:44

price of a to buy for what is

57:46

the price of a ton of cotton

57:50

what , these basic fundamental to bodies

57:52

and we're also kind of limited to what

57:54

we could find out there that had good

57:56

price stayed on it and what

57:59

we found

57:59

as you know you go back to nineteen eighty

58:02

and you kinda have about fifty of these things

58:04

we have good data on that

58:06

we can we can use and was okay

58:08

so you found you found that you found that

58:11

that that that

58:12

with fifty that was well that's a fairly

58:14

large number of resources but it's also

58:17

you could get reliable data on fifty

58:19

could you get reliable data on one hundred

58:21

du nord or did it sort of top out

58:23

for yet fifty

58:25

the wonderful legacy im know

58:27

the further back in time you get a you go on

58:29

the the that the list are you have on nominal

58:32

price supposed to by the time we get to

58:34

i'm of ninety six the we have

58:36

we have thirty seven but we look at that to had

58:39

, be look at from nineteen sixty two two thousand and eighteen

58:41

and if i'm nineteen eighty two two thousand and eighteen

58:43

just to satisfy those who may be saying

58:45

that forty a period is not substantial enough

58:48

and or to to really do

58:50

time prices for that that's how you need to blogger

58:52

gdp by the by the number of hours of work

58:54

which which we do in part of the books

58:57

but then and this is critical critical

58:59

we go back to eighteen sixty and

59:02

we look at saw prices

59:04

of commodities and commodities ah

59:07

into united states from the perspective

59:09

of blue collar workers and unskilled

59:11

laborers now this is very important for

59:13

number of reasons are very often

59:15

people will say oh well we're using average

59:18

daughter and that skewed by the rich

59:20

okay so we'll take those out will just

59:22

look at people at the very bottom of the income

59:24

straw time that the blue collar workers working

59:26

in the manufacturing and an unskilled workers like

59:29

for example of

59:31

people who clean the hallways janitors

59:34

okay now we have wage

59:36

data going back to seventeen seventies

59:39

and we have commodity and food data going

59:41

back to eighteen sixty so

59:43

here's what we found ah i'm just

59:45

going to give a few examples

59:48

so , blue collar worker between

59:51

eighteen fifty and two thousand and eighteen

59:53

that stage one fifty seven ah

59:56

rice drops in time price by

59:58

ninety price by with means you now have

1:00:00

hundred and eleven units

1:00:03

for the price of one the units are

1:00:05

poor two drops by ninety eight point seven

1:00:07

percent which means that now has seventy five

1:00:11

sounds of poor robbed and one pound

1:00:13

of board that , ancestors

1:00:15

could buy enough eighteen fifty ah

1:00:18

coffee drop of ninety eight percent

1:00:20

relative to wages which means you nuggets forty

1:00:23

nine pounds of coffee for

1:00:25

the same out of worth it would take you to buy

1:00:27

one pound of coffee beef dropped

1:00:29

by eighty five percent you know get seven

1:00:32

for the price of one so that's the blue collar

1:00:34

worker and we can also look at the least

1:00:36

fortunate in as wealth

1:00:39

least fortunate employs people in united states

1:00:41

and that's the unskilled unskilled

1:00:43

and example a sugar dropped by

1:00:45

ninety nine percent means you

1:00:47

know get hundred and seven pounds of sugar instead

1:00:49

of one pound of sugar in eighteen in

1:00:53

rice once again you get fifty

1:00:55

to three a porch city

1:00:58

five thirty six pounds or instead

1:01:00

of one ah corn twenty

1:01:03

six pounds for the price of one land

1:01:06

for one so

1:01:08

you know you go over the some scholars

1:01:11

stats and what you're finding is that so

1:01:13

long as you had the nominal price of a commodity

1:01:15

and eighteen fifty and a nominal wage

1:01:17

hourly wage in eighteen fifty and

1:01:20

then you come to compare it to twenty twenty or twenty

1:01:22

eighteen or whatever you can see these

1:01:24

trends and be the same whether you're looking

1:01:26

globally or in the united states

1:01:30

yeah you said you say you

1:01:32

when you're looking our dog jax twenty

1:01:34

six commodities here between

1:01:36

eighteen fifty in two thousand and eighteen

1:01:39

the average be or a increase by

1:01:42

fifty seven

1:01:44

basically fifty eight hundred percent

1:01:46

so yes that's personal resource abundance correct

1:01:48

right right and the numeric equivalent

1:01:50

of that the dollar equivalent of that is that

1:01:53

the hourly compensation rate rose

1:01:55

from six cents an hour to thirty two

1:01:57

dollars an hour i'm so betty

1:01:59

the peoria

1:02:01

the resorts abundance index

1:02:04

would be a more accurate gauge of that

1:02:06

improvement so the improvement is

1:02:08

it's very difficult i think for modern

1:02:11

young people in particular have

1:02:13

to really understand how

1:02:15

poor people were absolutely

1:02:19

yeah absolutely best the best example

1:02:21

i like to uses the sugar example

1:02:23

then it's like well the time it took you to

1:02:25

earn the money to buy one pound of sugar

1:02:27

and eighteen fifty how many pounds you think you did

1:02:29

today i'd love to survey my students

1:02:32

on this and i'll say all like two

1:02:34

pounds or four pounds

1:02:36

you get two hundred and twenty seven pounds

1:02:39

it might explain why we're also fat as

1:02:41

considers becomes just tremendously

1:02:43

urban myth

1:02:45

in the

1:02:46

little bit but it's not a circus all these other

1:02:48

ones are you know that the average

1:02:50

to prices falling by nice

1:02:52

the eight percent which means that

1:02:55

enough for the time it took you to get one you that

1:02:57

you get sister eunice

1:02:59

right right right well so i'm

1:03:01

so

1:03:01

okay and so well let's continue with

1:03:04

is so i'm why why super

1:03:06

abundance why that title

1:03:11

i i i have been should i think it's

1:03:13

okay i feel like i'm talking too much he sits on me to

1:03:15

shut offs the buds look i'm

1:03:18

a it's very simple armed if

1:03:20

it's early was rights which he wasn't abundance

1:03:23

of resources would be declining simon

1:03:26

was right abundances increasing but

1:03:28

abundance can increase at two different

1:03:30

speeds if ,

1:03:32

of resources would be called person

1:03:35

resource abundance is

1:03:37

increasing at increasing lower rate than population

1:03:40

so populace increased by five percent but

1:03:42

personal resource abundances only increasing by two

1:03:44

percent we call that increasing abundance

1:03:47

but population is increasing at five percent

1:03:50

but , resource abundance is increasing by

1:03:52

ten percent we call that superabundance

1:03:55

in the book will look to the hundreds

1:03:57

of commodities goods and even services

1:04:00

going back all the way to eighteen fifty eighteen

1:04:03

different data sets that

1:04:05

we got from third parties mostly

1:04:07

are so that we are not accused of cherry picking

1:04:09

not all of them but most the all

1:04:12

eighteen that affects have

1:04:15

been growing at a super abandoned

1:04:17

speed which means that our

1:04:19

wells it is abundant

1:04:21

increasing faster than population and what's that

1:04:23

tells us is that on

1:04:25

average every human beings contributes

1:04:28

beings contributes than they consume

1:04:31

we are destroy us but we're also

1:04:33

creators and any turns out that

1:04:35

we are more of a creator

1:04:38

then we are consumer or a destroyer we

1:04:40

create wealth and also

1:04:42

also that the rate at

1:04:44

which that is true is him creasing rather

1:04:47

than decrease it a little out

1:04:49

on the suggests that the early dot

1:04:51

us it's going back to eighteen fifty and so on then

1:04:53

we have these increases in

1:04:56

in in abundance of resources ah

1:04:58

at about two and half percent per year of

1:05:01

compounded growth rate of but by the time

1:05:03

you get to the nineteen eighties and beyond you get

1:05:06

to about three and harper said so said so

1:05:08

okay so now we can tell parents

1:05:10

that means we can tell parents that

1:05:12

not only is your job not going to be

1:05:14

on average a net drain all the world's resources

1:05:16

not only are you not going to make other people

1:05:19

poor and the planet more

1:05:21

baron by bringing another child into

1:05:23

the world that you're actually doing a positive good

1:05:26

is it if you have ten children everyone

1:05:28

will be somewhat richer because of that

1:05:31

the chances that so that they will be richer

1:05:33

and the chances lead saw one of those than

1:05:36

babies is actually are going

1:05:38

to be able to contribute something a substantial

1:05:40

to the welfare of human beings is higher

1:05:43

than if you just have than one child

1:05:45

right right ha would not be

1:05:47

lovely and i do believe that it's the case

1:05:49

you know so it's really that's really something

1:05:51

to be able to tell people be know i'm

1:05:53

i i i will watch did my

1:05:55

own life people react

1:05:58

certainly not point

1:05:59

the blood

1:06:00

to pregnant women talking about their babies

1:06:03

their new the babies are going to bring into the world is

1:06:05

so awful to see and all it's a while

1:06:07

how you know and and parents themselves they have

1:06:09

this

1:06:10

this

1:06:12

discussion they have with themselves i suppose

1:06:14

tucker moral conundrum for

1:06:16

young women is like will do i really want

1:06:18

to bring a baby into the

1:06:20

world like this and bouncer as

1:06:22

well it's

1:06:25

it's world it's getting better your

1:06:27

baby or probably a better time of the new dnr

1:06:29

there's a reasonable probability that but your baby

1:06:32

will also be a nap good for everyone else

1:06:34

really like not not in some naive

1:06:37

idiot all mark greeting card

1:06:40

simplistic way but really

1:06:42

actually solidly

1:06:44

and and in spite of all the doomsaying

1:06:47

of the malthusian said the apocalypse

1:06:49

and they're anti capitalists

1:06:51

and so forth so

1:06:53

that's a lovely thing to be able to tell people and

1:06:55

that brings us really to the importance

1:06:57

of innovation where i think

1:07:00

of a gale a really contributed

1:07:02

heavily to that particular check for so i think

1:07:04

that i would money if he

1:07:06

wanted to talk a little bit about or innovation

1:07:09

if you don't mind

1:07:10

so so here's the ideas we begin

1:07:13

our model thinking about

1:07:14

you know it begins with human beings and

1:07:16

we focus on that because the only source

1:07:19

of new ideas are human deeds and

1:07:21

those those ideas really entails

1:07:23

how do we create new knowledge

1:07:26

with these capitals that we have we define

1:07:28

capital is anything we can use

1:07:30

to create something of value so

1:07:32

you have physical capital human

1:07:34

capital intellectual capital financial

1:07:37

capital cultural capital

1:07:39

n soy ice begin with this idea

1:07:42

when i can actually manifest that idea

1:07:44

in converse the idea into to

1:07:46

something real he becomes this

1:07:48

thing recon invention

1:07:50

that in order for taxi me move into this

1:07:52

innovation level it has to go to the market

1:07:55

the market is really works you take

1:07:57

these things and their tested to

1:07:59

see

1:07:59

you've truly traded value in

1:08:02

, it creates valued in this invention

1:08:04

becomes an innovation and

1:08:06

it's it's in our progress is entirely

1:08:09

due to our ability to innovate

1:08:12

gay so lumber blomberg he showed

1:08:14

this he showed is dovetails with your work

1:08:16

cause so when launders

1:08:18

done his

1:08:20

return on investment rank ordering

1:08:23

solutions to the problems that be safehouse

1:08:26

he showed that dot highest

1:08:29

return his economists calculated

1:08:31

for

1:08:32

investment in the future was investment really

1:08:35

into early childhood care some of that was early

1:08:37

childhood nutrition the part of

1:08:39

the reason for that as far as i can tell

1:08:41

is that well if a child's

1:08:43

growth stunted in early life

1:08:45

because of malnutrition one of the things

1:08:48

that happens is they don't develop their intelligence

1:08:50

their intrinsic intelligence to the degree

1:08:52

that that's possible so there's been a whopping

1:08:55

increase in the average i

1:08:57

q of the human population over the last

1:08:59

century and a huge part of especially

1:09:02

at the lower end which has been brought up a

1:09:04

huge part of that is that what is your

1:09:06

so many fewer people suffering from

1:09:08

absolute privation so

1:09:10

if the most valuable resource

1:09:13

that we have is it passes innovate

1:09:15

then the most them that the most

1:09:17

logical arm problem

1:09:19

to target is

1:09:21

that which might interfere with the development

1:09:23

of say general cognitive ability in

1:09:25

childhood and it turns out that that's actually

1:09:27

quite inexpensive to foster

1:09:30

so

1:09:31

that that that fostering of innovation

1:09:33

there's lots of things that have to do that for one of them

1:09:35

is definitely a concentration on early

1:09:38

childhood nutrition let's say

1:09:39

it really goes back to this ability can

1:09:41

we get people to be able to

1:09:44

learn more more trait you

1:09:46

knowledge in if they're if they're healthy

1:09:49

if they have might if they

1:09:51

if they're they have these fundamental

1:09:54

physical needs met then they get

1:09:56

on these learning curves in that's interesting

1:09:58

thing about a learning curve is whenever

1:10:00

you double the output of something cost

1:10:03

per unit fall between twenty and thirty

1:10:05

percent in so you're

1:10:07

really seen the more we make

1:10:10

the the cheaper that we can make

1:10:12

them so we we we we

1:10:14

think about how do we actually grow

1:10:16

an economy moore's law

1:10:18

we refer to that our time but it's

1:10:20

really a function of quantity it's not a function

1:10:23

of time it's because we're making these

1:10:25

chips at such high quantities

1:10:27

every time we double production

1:10:29

that cost drops by twenty percent were

1:10:31

just making trillions and trillions of these chips

1:10:34

for then be okay tell me what you think this

1:10:36

guy so i've been thinking about justifications

1:10:39

for inequality economic inequality

1:10:41

because you have absolute privation as

1:10:43

a problem and and the free market

1:10:45

is really good at ameliorating absolute privations

1:10:48

there's no doubt about that but there's still a fair

1:10:50

bit of relative economic inequality

1:10:52

so you might say what those rich people like

1:10:54

do we really need to people who have billions

1:10:57

of dollars and i think while we might need elon

1:10:59

musk like you know that said something we can

1:11:01

all think about but in any case

1:11:03

you're the reason we need some people

1:11:06

to be extremely rich mean when cell

1:11:08

phones first came out i think they were

1:11:10

like a hundred and fifty thousand dollars apiece when

1:11:12

when they were hooked directly to a satellite network

1:11:15

the they're big and bulky and only the most

1:11:17

wealthy could clearly afford

1:11:19

them and use them productively given

1:11:21

that given their great expense but

1:11:24

what was what was what like five years

1:11:26

later everybody had one and now

1:11:28

they're not your cellphone susie stunning

1:11:30

technological miracles that are while

1:11:33

there there's they're just beyond comprehension

1:11:35

what those things can do but it isn't obvious

1:11:37

to me at all that everyone

1:11:39

could have ever got one if only

1:11:41

a few people know

1:11:44

if we weren't willing to put up with the fact that only

1:11:46

a few hyper wealthy people could have them to

1:11:48

begin with

1:11:49

maybe we can get

1:11:51

really innovative technological we

1:11:54

can't really get make innovative

1:11:56

technological progress at a commodity level

1:11:59

unless we

1:11:59

cool the people at every level of

1:12:02

wealth so that we can produce a

1:12:04

market for something new among the hyper rich

1:12:06

before we can produce enough of

1:12:08

it so that everybody can have it is the right

1:12:10

is it would that mean that inequality does

1:12:12

that imply that economic inequalities actually

1:12:15

prerequisite for the mass production

1:12:18

of highly complex

1:12:20

technological

1:12:21

hum gadgetry lot safer for

1:12:23

everyone

1:12:24

in

1:12:26

the ears what i'd say merry

1:12:28

is a look these new innovations

1:12:30

come out and you have typically these these

1:12:33

significant six costs up front

1:12:35

to make the first yeah yeah yeah and who

1:12:37

pays for that the rich pay for

1:12:39

that i'm in the marginal cost the not

1:12:41

because to the next one that falls

1:12:44

dramatically think about software

1:12:46

think about some of these apps

1:12:48

a costume million dollars to create the app

1:12:51

the cost through the next copies

1:12:53

a few cents was brave the friars that

1:12:55

the first one cause the first one cause

1:12:57

you though

1:12:58

yeah i'm hundred million dollars and millions one

1:13:00

costs fifteen cents but you have

1:13:02

to get the after ratchet your way down that

1:13:04

price

1:13:05

ladder yeah who's gonna

1:13:08

do that for a it's the rich that are willing to

1:13:10

put up those costs of pay those prices

1:13:12

up front

1:13:13

wow and then or well you think to and

1:13:15

it is it if the if it wasn't you can

1:13:17

say well maybe government pools of capital

1:13:19

to manage that but it's not the case because

1:13:21

like government isn't gonna buy enough

1:13:24

massive flat screen

1:13:26

t these when they first become available

1:13:28

because the government doesn't consume like an

1:13:30

individual wears a rich person in some

1:13:33

sense does right to they'll go

1:13:35

after consumer products

1:13:37

so the i don't think we can replace

1:13:39

the benevolent utility of some

1:13:42

people with massive bulls of capital with

1:13:44

any

1:13:45

i'm you know

1:13:46

replacement

1:13:48

the i think yeah

1:13:50

the difference between rich and poor as five years

1:13:53

right yes yes you know i get it today

1:13:55

was everybody's gotta get this and five years

1:13:58

yeah maybe in ten years it'll be

1:13:59

new years i remember very

1:14:02

distinctly a conversation i had with a very

1:14:04

close friend of mine about twenty years ago we were driving

1:14:07

and , said how long before access

1:14:10

to internet becomes a basic human right and

1:14:13

of course today in the united states government

1:14:15

pays people who cannot

1:14:17

, to access to broadband internet

1:14:19

auto fathom the pocket he has basically

1:14:22

become a basic human right

1:14:24

as far as americans are concerns let

1:14:26

me say one thing about

1:14:28

other by other way that led by that i don't

1:14:30

need that a book i buy into universe a

1:14:32

into these things as human rights what i'm saying receive

1:14:35

it as as he nights receive think that's

1:14:37

the importance of it with of

1:14:39

discussion between equality and inequalities

1:14:41

actually much deeper than that

1:14:45

the quality i'll be very frank the

1:14:47

quality is spaces it's another

1:14:49

word for spaces inequality

1:14:52

inequality he's in

1:14:54

my view of the midwife

1:14:57

of progress

1:14:59

the survey the midwife of job trade

1:15:02

because if complete league we have nothing to

1:15:04

trade

1:15:05

oh yes but but

1:15:07

in in so many different ways inequality

1:15:09

is the midwife of of human progress

1:15:12

by that i mean of the primary material

1:15:14

but maybe make some others well let's

1:15:17

say that you have a society which

1:15:19

is completely static i'm just going to come up

1:15:21

with when example of everybody living

1:15:24

in a cave then somebody decides

1:15:26

well i have this great idea of actually

1:15:28

building a hot oh on

1:15:30

a hill with i had better

1:15:32

view and and and so forth are

1:15:34

there is an inequality of housing they're going

1:15:37

on for a little while was was

1:15:39

other people realize that day they can

1:15:41

improve how they live their lives

1:15:44

are , production a not in

1:15:47

in evening personal behavior if

1:15:49

you have if you which which which

1:15:51

is static and and doesn't

1:15:53

change and some of the realizes that

1:15:55

hey maybe this form of behavior like

1:15:58

learning reading books ah

1:16:00

can reach the can lead to a better

1:16:02

life that in itself is a

1:16:04

way of inequality when

1:16:07

when when accompanied besides

1:16:09

that instead of relying on no

1:16:11

human labor creating pins

1:16:14

we are going to buy a machine that

1:16:16

is going to create and inequality old

1:16:18

production process but that is in itself

1:16:20

going to move the society forward society

1:16:22

fight so your highness basically pointing

1:16:25

out that

1:16:27

the as a positive change

1:16:29

begins to manifest itself

1:16:32

in a society it's first manifests

1:16:34

itself as a marked inequality

1:16:37

that have to give you can't appear everywhere at once

1:16:39

yes because er en

1:16:41

equivalent to i have faith is it if it

1:16:43

means at everything is the same and

1:16:46

and inequality is the disruptor

1:16:48

he tells people that things can be done differently

1:16:50

now some people make stupid choices and they suffer

1:16:52

the consequences but those doses a good ah

1:16:55

you can become fabulous to reach are important

1:16:57

in your community because you have figured out a better

1:16:59

way of living

1:17:01

london and then other people are going to have

1:17:03

that five years he on the road if you are a little

1:17:05

market player yeah yeah definitely

1:17:07

the other thing i would add to the us as we go

1:17:10

back to something real basic and and i think

1:17:12

you have income inequality be also have

1:17:14

time inequality and ,

1:17:16

we look at that from our perspective it looks

1:17:18

much different so go back to nineteen

1:17:20

sixty go to india india

1:17:24

indian would take about seven or eight hours

1:17:26

a day to just earn the money to buy their

1:17:28

daily rice and

1:17:31

in the united states imagine sixty

1:17:33

would take an hour to buy the

1:17:36

a week in so

1:17:38

both of these commodities have fallen by

1:17:40

ninety percent their time price so

1:17:42

who's better off

1:17:44

the garden in in india he used to spend

1:17:46

the eight hours now he spends only

1:17:49

one hour

1:17:50

though he picks up seven hours

1:17:53

bigger than us been an hour

1:17:55

in now we we spend six minutes and with except

1:17:57

fifty five minutes so the

1:18:00

difference in time ray ray haim

1:18:02

inequality gets really

1:18:04

compress when you have this innovation on

1:18:06

these prices especially

1:18:08

when you're dealing with these basic fundamental

1:18:10

food items the poor are those

1:18:13

the primary beneficiaries of that because

1:18:15

now they have so much more time

1:18:17

relative to where they were twenty or

1:18:19

thirty years ago to now go learn and

1:18:21

pursue and be created

1:18:23

that's the beauty of time prices not only

1:18:25

is it immune from governments

1:18:28

fiddling around with inflation numbers

1:18:30

but also you can make international comparisons

1:18:33

you no longer have to figure out what is

1:18:35

the exchange rate between the american dollar in

1:18:37

the indian rupee i'm look at

1:18:39

the minutes said the people who work there look at the minutes

1:18:41

people work here and that will give you a sense whether inequalities

1:18:43

increasing or decreasing

1:18:45

right right right okay well let's let's

1:18:47

try to cover two more things

1:18:50

before we before we finish we

1:18:53

haven't got the part three of your book so that's

1:18:55

human flourishing and it's enemies so

1:18:58

i won't talk about out and then

1:19:00

the

1:19:02

the other thing i'd like you to discuss is what

1:19:04

our is your house you were being received

1:19:07

publicly and by other recall economists

1:19:10

so let's start with the the cool clothes

1:19:12

off the the walk through your book go

1:19:14

through part three human flourishing

1:19:16

in his enemies you have sport chapters

1:19:18

their one is humanity seven million

1:19:21

year journey from the rain forest to the industrial

1:19:23

revolution the operated

1:19:25

the age of innovation and the great enrichment

1:19:28

dropped line is where do innovations come from

1:19:30

population growth in freedom and then the enemies

1:19:33

of progress from the romantic the

1:19:35

extreme environmentalists so

1:19:37

you guys comment on part three first and then

1:19:39

let's go down reception of your work and

1:19:41

and your hope for these ideas as well

1:19:44

the my back up to part to real quick set

1:19:46

aside announce whether they take other to use of

1:19:48

the story that we want to tell

1:19:50

alright so we're going to go back to bit of section two

1:19:53

deals gonna take a sauna

1:19:55

on a journey through the remainder section

1:19:57

two

1:19:58

so if your own pace to twenty two you'll

1:20:00

see this box that we developed in

1:20:02

the idea is if we can take a major was

1:20:04

picked population on the horizontal axis

1:20:07

the most but personally a resource

1:20:09

abundance on the vertical axis and

1:20:11

then let's look at nineteen eighty in

1:20:14

say nineteen eighty and was just index the

1:20:16

pearsall resource abundance and population

1:20:18

to about your one so that read the

1:20:21

red box represents the size of the

1:20:23

global resource pie and nineteen eighty

1:20:25

so do things happen first

1:20:28

of all

1:20:28

your personal resource abundances

1:20:30

increased by two hundred and fifty two percent

1:20:33

so we go up on the vertical axis

1:20:35

but population also increased by seventy

1:20:37

one percent so you go out on the

1:20:39

horizontal axis such one is

1:20:41

running graph

1:20:42

it is stunning grass

1:20:44

it really makes me realize that it's not nineteen

1:20:46

eighty anymore not nineteen eighty

1:20:49

at all so when you come you combine

1:20:51

those two

1:20:52

the red boxes that nineteen eighty global

1:20:54

resource pie that's one eating green box

1:20:57

is is twenty eighteen and you look

1:20:59

at the difference and m you

1:21:01

can

1:21:02

you can major those to an artist

1:21:05

or total have been is that green area that's

1:21:07

five hundred percent larger than it was

1:21:09

in nineteen eighty

1:21:10

though the compound annual growth rate

1:21:12

this the population level

1:21:14

resource abundances is almost five

1:21:17

percent a year and what's interesting

1:21:19

about that

1:21:21

you look at the last two city in

1:21:23

other words if i increase population

1:21:25

by one percent what happens to personal resource

1:21:28

abundance

1:21:29

in we see their that for every one

1:21:31

percent increase in population

1:21:34

your personal resource abundance increased

1:21:36

by three and half percent

1:21:38

my own is much you hate you guys

1:21:40

ace

1:21:41

here's the deal is once again

1:21:43

the biologists would have been right if

1:21:45

they would have considered knowledge

1:21:48

as the t unit of

1:21:50

measurement instead of atoms

1:21:53

if you measure knowledge

1:21:55

the when our nation information rather

1:21:57

than just pure matter

1:21:59

right

1:21:59

in his his his knowledge

1:22:02

that can grow knowledge can grow

1:22:04

it can be shared with another person that's

1:22:06

not rivalrous in other words you like and

1:22:08

share the same knowledge so we get this ability

1:22:11

to create this substance

1:22:13

we can share with each other that it doesn't

1:22:16

you know five a snickers bar give it to you i

1:22:18

lose that but now it was no reason for

1:22:20

that there is no reason for the biologists

1:22:22

to presume except that they use bad

1:22:24

it's bad an animal analogies

1:22:26

let's say that the same units

1:22:28

of biological activity would necessarily

1:22:31

require the same units of cost so

1:22:34

what's your were not well modi by east

1:22:36

and we're not perhaps well more by

1:22:38

rats is because we have this debussy

1:22:41

the abstract good biologist

1:22:43

would say

1:22:44

hey that's a fundamental transformation in

1:22:46

the nature biological reality

1:22:48

it's not something we can just be hand waved away

1:22:51

and and molson did not take

1:22:53

that into account and that means he was wrong biologically

1:22:56

not just economically and i think is as

1:22:58

i said before the evolution of the prefrontal cortex

1:23:01

is good

1:23:02

exemplar of that a perfect example

1:23:04

of the difference between the items

1:23:06

which are final oh

1:23:09

finite in knowledge which

1:23:11

is potentially infinite he's the most expensive

1:23:13

car in the world call god bugatti

1:23:16

veyron it costs eighteen

1:23:18

million dollars when you drive

1:23:20

it auto far the the dealership

1:23:23

when , then smash it into a wall

1:23:26

it is a heap of

1:23:28

plastic and metal worth

1:23:31

maybe tens of thousands of dollars

1:23:33

the amount of atoms the

1:23:36

same they'd been rearranged

1:23:39

in a less pleasant way back

1:23:42

which makes a difference between and eighteen

1:23:44

million dollar car the

1:23:46

scrap heap that's the difference

1:23:49

between talking about items

1:23:52

the finite nature the

1:23:54

knowledge which can then recreate

1:23:56

end of a weekend which can arrange and

1:23:58

rearrange them

1:23:59

sure and what you do in their do is offering

1:24:02

a real criticism of the even

1:24:04

the notion are

1:24:07

certainly be over use of the notion of zero

1:24:09

sum game like know know

1:24:11

things aren't finite the way that you been

1:24:13

conceptualizing finite because it

1:24:15

doesn't matter

1:24:17

the

1:24:17

it matter how much stuff there is but it matters

1:24:20

even more how the stuff is organized

1:24:22

and i mean you can certainly see that when were

1:24:25

you think about it for a few seconds about

1:24:27

our ability to store information and never

1:24:29

decreasing spaces and

1:24:32

that we haven't had a limit to by any stretch of the imagination

1:24:34

been hard drive technology just gets stunningly

1:24:37

better faster and faster and

1:24:40

what's the limits about the planck length

1:24:42

or some unbelievably infinitesimal

1:24:45

the tiny tiny space you know

1:24:47

that would that would constitute the

1:24:49

absolute physical limits the

1:24:51

our ability to pack information into a given

1:24:53

unit of of of say time and space

1:24:57

we're not even were nowhere near that yet

1:24:59

well that issue leads me to a

1:25:01

very interesting observation made by

1:25:03

noble prize winning economist paul romer

1:25:06

who talks about that combinatorial

1:25:08

revolution do i have time to talk about

1:25:10

it very briefly yeah yeah so

1:25:13

the the periodic table

1:25:15

has about hundreds or elements

1:25:17

saw in it's right and

1:25:22

if you take a simple

1:25:24

compound like a like a bronze

1:25:26

it is constituted only have

1:25:28

two elements which is copper

1:25:31

and tin right on

1:25:34

, took us thousands of years to get to a point

1:25:36

where we realized that by combining copper

1:25:38

and tin we could i should come up with bronze which

1:25:40

was actually useful for all sorts of things but

1:25:43

now once you start

1:25:45

but the that the the the the

1:25:48

the number of calculations than the number

1:25:50

oath to element calculations are

1:25:52

cause hundred times ninety nine rights

1:25:54

and takes a lot of time to go through all of that

1:25:57

once you get to four elements

1:25:59

let me hundred and ninety nine times

1:26:02

ninety times ninety seven you

1:26:04

get to ninety four million

1:26:07

possible combinations and

1:26:09

here is be astonishing thing when

1:26:12

you start thinking about

1:26:14

combinations of ten elements

1:26:18

the number of combinations is

1:26:20

greater

1:26:22

then the number of seconds

1:26:24

the the big bang fourteen billion

1:26:26

years ago

1:26:28

right so

1:26:31

we literally we are we are

1:26:33

very smart compared to our ancestors

1:26:36

but i think that when people look

1:26:39

upon us in a hundred or two hundred

1:26:41

years time they will sing we are very

1:26:43

very stupid indeed because they will

1:26:45

come up with all sorts of things

1:26:48

by having more people more freedom

1:26:50

and more computing power that we couldn't

1:26:52

even imagine so so in

1:26:54

some sense you're making the case that the

1:26:56

idea that we will run out of resources

1:26:58

giving carbon into real given com

1:27:01

editorial possibility as absurd as the idea

1:27:03

that

1:27:04

will run out of music

1:27:06

oh gail and i have

1:27:08

this wonderful a gale take it over

1:27:10

because this is this is one of those years where we have very

1:27:12

proud right so always group my

1:27:15

students how many keys on a piano reasonable

1:27:17

as a the eighties right well then how many songs

1:27:19

are in a piano well there's

1:27:21

really no songs in a piano to

1:27:23

requested the songs on the minds of human

1:27:26

beings and what is that number it's

1:27:28

really infinite and so if

1:27:30

you go back and ask their nose or

1:27:32

markers you how many keys

1:27:34

on a purely say eighty it will how many songs

1:27:37

donaldson say we got eighty keys you must

1:27:39

only have any songs

1:27:41

is gonna this crazy thing so

1:27:44

that's the kind of back to the dead

1:27:46

your rule number four

1:27:48

the about your perspective and

1:27:50

when you say

1:27:52

you know who do we compare ourselves to

1:27:55

who other people are or do we compare

1:27:57

who we were yesterday this

1:27:59

little sharks

1:27:59

we discussed allows us to

1:28:02

go back and look back in time

1:28:04

in a in it's really the proper perspective

1:28:07

if we look at not who we compare

1:28:10

ourselves against today or who

1:28:12

that's who we compare ourselves to out

1:28:14

in the future look back in time

1:28:17

you'll see that that perspective is snowing

1:28:19

wow

1:28:21

i'm glad i'm just i'm

1:28:23

just scrolling through these these graphs

1:28:25

that as you go farther and farther back in time it's

1:28:27

stunning is absolutely stunning

1:28:30

in in in so i think the proper

1:28:32

perspective come up with the proper

1:28:34

way to measure it's and then use the proper

1:28:36

perspective would you be this completely

1:28:39

different picture about where where you were

1:28:41

we've come to

1:28:42

in the potential going forward

1:28:45

yeah you guys must be pretty damn thrilled about this book

1:28:48

we are very thrilled but i think that's

1:28:50

are playing of of something that's a gale

1:28:52

said about your rule number

1:28:55

four is , that

1:28:58

see i think that if you compare yourself

1:29:00

to other people today or you

1:29:02

know sort of utopian future

1:29:04

where everything is working optimally

1:29:07

for everyone everywhere at all at

1:29:09

i'm then that can only lead

1:29:12

to envy and resentment whereas

1:29:14

if you compare your life today in a

1:29:16

civilized society to life

1:29:18

before you end up

1:29:20

with a different emotion which is one of

1:29:22

gratitude and i think that's

1:29:25

what he saw what fundamentally

1:29:28

of what is very problematic is that so

1:29:30

many people in the world are either the

1:29:32

or envious a rather than

1:29:34

or for the extraordinary

1:29:37

achievement that humanity has made already

1:29:41

who

1:29:43

well let that brings us perhaps it

1:29:45

if we're ready to go past part due to part three

1:29:47

which was

1:29:49

well you you one of the chapters there

1:29:51

are tickets shop can let me just get back to

1:29:53

the table contents here

1:29:55

you said

1:29:57

these are

1:30:00

the enemies in progress

1:30:02

the romantics to the extreme environmentalist

1:30:05

the first know

1:30:08

the you guys you have any thoughts on

1:30:11

why people

1:30:13

would be

1:30:14

i mean are people opposed these ideas

1:30:16

do they think you're wrong about

1:30:18

what you're saying

1:30:19

the what kind of criticisms are you

1:30:22

attracting and and why

1:30:24

are you tracking them we're here to ask

1:30:26

you that question doctor

1:30:28

peterson psychologist

1:30:30

yeah well was

1:30:32

little glass

1:30:33

well either i think i think i think

1:30:35

that married did a reasonable job just

1:30:38

in in the in the conversation fragments

1:30:40

of a few seconds earlier

1:30:44

miss play sandy is a really big problem

1:30:46

resentments a really big problem historical

1:30:48

ignorance is really big problem

1:30:51

no i mean people people don't know how bad

1:30:53

it was they don't know how

1:30:55

far we've come

1:30:56

there never taught that

1:30:58

they're not taught how terrible things

1:31:00

have become in many places in the twentieth century

1:31:02

like my students in my personality

1:31:04

class is a smart kids at the

1:31:06

university of toronto they were well educated

1:31:09

by

1:31:09

like baron standards

1:31:11

none of them knew anything about what happened and stolen

1:31:13

the soviet union or in maoist china

1:31:16

in cambodia no one had ever talk talk

1:31:19

so

1:31:21

the white i think you know young people

1:31:23

they they see inequality in the world

1:31:26

and they see some of the painful consequences

1:31:29

of inequality because there are painful consequences

1:31:32

then

1:31:33

there and paste into

1:31:35

finding a quick source of blame that requires

1:31:37

no thought and also entice they

1:31:40

do manifesting our moral virtue that

1:31:42

is neither more nor virtuous

1:31:44

them so

1:31:46

then and so here we are and instead

1:31:48

of

1:31:49

in a wife thought for many years

1:31:51

decades that whenever i walk out on the street

1:31:53

and things aren't on fire

1:31:55

i'm pretty damn thrilled at how stable and peaceful

1:31:57

things are idle take

1:31:59

electricity for granted i don't take

1:32:03

the integrity of the supply chain for granted

1:32:05

i truly think these are miracles i don't think

1:32:07

the fact that

1:32:09

the faulty interaction between

1:32:11

human beings in

1:32:13

in this in the western world broadly

1:32:15

speaking the default economic transactions

1:32:18

is based on trust

1:32:20

i don't take that for granted that's a bloody miracle

1:32:22

it took us

1:32:24

hardly any societies have ever managed out

1:32:26

in the took us thousands tens of thousands

1:32:28

of years to produce that

1:32:30

what i think children are children are so

1:32:32

badly educated

1:32:34

the people who have no idea they have no idea

1:32:36

about economics they have no idea about history have

1:32:38

no idea about privation are suffering

1:32:41

you're looking for easy answers and

1:32:43

the door and and people to blame

1:32:45

for the remaining

1:32:46

yeah

1:32:49

speed of the world

1:32:50

and i think your work is an unbelievably good antidote

1:32:52

to that

1:32:54

and something to offer young people that so bloody

1:32:56

positive with the as at that it's been

1:32:58

a miraculous and not naive

1:33:00

that the same time like what a good combination that

1:33:02

is what was yours yours the course of i

1:33:04

love best my students is what what i have to pay

1:33:06

you

1:33:07

the for you to never use your your

1:33:10

your iphone in the internet again

1:33:12

for the remainder of your life

1:33:14

in i've never get i've

1:33:17

never been able to get a student or to

1:33:19

do it for less than five million dollars

1:33:21

i grew have this five million dollars

1:33:24

thing that you own your

1:33:27

all year old five million years because

1:33:29

you get to walk around with these devices

1:33:32

oh yeah definitely were you were so

1:33:34

prosperous so rich compared

1:33:36

to to anybody that's come before

1:33:38

you how could you not be anything

1:33:40

other than then just as hyper

1:33:43

grateful for the life that we have

1:33:46

well you know why there are think

1:33:48

that one of the things we need to do about this

1:33:50

is we need to start

1:33:52

raining young people to think about themselves

1:33:54

as

1:33:56

there to more possibility that they know

1:33:58

what to do with and then incur

1:33:59

to harness that

1:34:01

in

1:34:02

in so i'd say we're lucky you are you have

1:34:04

all the food that you could have

1:34:06

and you have all the information that

1:34:08

there is

1:34:10

you got it all in front of you now

1:34:12

did you have it on front of the what's the most

1:34:14

noble v

1:34:15

new can bring forth

1:34:17

who make use of that possibility

1:34:19

no one and i know some of

1:34:21

the research i've done on helping people make

1:34:23

vision for the future feature altering program

1:34:26

we shall pretty clearly that you can motivate

1:34:29

students would drop the dropout rate of

1:34:31

boys in in community college

1:34:33

fifty percent by just having them sit down

1:34:35

for ninety minutes and develop a vision

1:34:37

if you say look you look at what's

1:34:39

in front of you

1:34:41

way more than anyone's ever had in history

1:34:44

some people might have a little more in front of them

1:34:46

the new like certainly

1:34:48

but when you have more than

1:34:50

you could ever you

1:34:51

how much you need

1:34:54

the and and then who should you be to

1:34:56

live up to that well that's you know our collective

1:34:59

problem at the moment trying to solve that and hopefully